Legendary Republican political strategist, Karl Rove, says the WH2020 outcome will be hard to overtu
Legendary Republican political strategist, Karl Rove, says the WH2020 outcome will be hard to overturn – politicalbetting.com
With the Trump continuing to fight the verdict of voters in last week’s election there’s a warning to the White House from former adviser to Republican presidents and longstanding GOP operative, Karl Rove, about the current en passe.
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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1326726087133581314
Dunno if there was any truth to that leak about him running again or if it was just a good way to orientate him towards the future...
So Trump needs 76.3% of remaining votes.
I wonder what might have happened if the Republicans had won the House as well as the Senate? I suspect they would have needed a decent majority - because surely the likes of Collins and Romney would not throw out EC votes. But I fear most other Republicans would.
If the Dems had won the Senate he surely would have retired - he wouldn't want to repeat RBG's mistake.
Assuming Dems don't win both GA seats, does he wait two years and hope Dems gain the Senate then? If he retires now he might think Biden can get Collins and Romney's votes - and of course if Dems win one of the GA seats then he would only need one of them.
But Dems might go backwards in 2022 making it just about impossible for Biden to get anyone through.
Or if he's in good health does he just sit tight on the basis he's confident of lasting a long time?
And, no, the result won't be overturned. It's a convincing win.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/11/politics/joe-biden-2020-election-win/index.html
So he finishes on 306 ECVs.
https://news.sky.com/story/chancellor-considers-middle-class-tax-raid-to-pay-for-covid-debt-mountain-12130446
Pretty rubbish.
Still, not as rubbish as Spreadex whose spread betting market was down most of election night, which defeats the point of it. Might as well just stick to sportsbook fixed odds if you're not going to operate a fluid trading floor.
This is based purely on my recent experience but I was up most of election night and the following day. Spreadex US election market was suspended for most of that time.
Pretty atrocious really.
edit. just saw Paul's post below mine: that's 100% right.
Biden's current lead is 11,635, and the estimated number of ballots to come is 22,456, which means Trump would need about 75% of the remaining votes to catch up.
If that's correct, it implies that the actual efficacy observed to date would have been more like 95%. Statistically there would be a small probability of the real underlying efficacy being less than 90%. But equally it could be above 95%.
This is certainly above Pfizer's own expectations, because the illustrative statistical calculations in the published protocol covered various possible efficacies, but the highest possibility considered was only 80%.
Biden's ratio has now gone backwards, he's only winning the mail 58/38 (closer to where I thought he would end up)
HE now needs to win the remaining postal vote *checks notes* 88%-to-8% to win.
I'm going to go out on a limb here and call Alaska for Trump.
Not so tentatively I call it 180,000 Trump to 145,000 Biden votes.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/11/11/row-within-tory-party-vaccine-distribution-hawks-suggest-workers/
One there news of the morning, did I read last night that Frost is possibly resigning? If so, where would that leave the Brexit negotiations?
https://sluggerotoole.com/2020/11/09/joe-bidens-administration-now-needs-to-ask-the-obvious-question-how-do-we-fix-this-sht/
https://twitter.com/SimonMAtkinson/status/1326445145521262592?s=19
I gather each party in each state nominates it's EC voters. And the winning party in each state puts forward it's votes. If I have that right that seems straight forward for Biden.
Who makes the formal decision as to who won in each state? I assume it is the equivalent of our returning officer. In which case where is there any risk in Trump being able to corrupt the ECV?
you should be happy with Bojo's continental affinities
In this case, Betfair might not settle until all the states have finished counting and have certified the results in three weeks' time (based on this thread's header). If you have tied up your stake on the PV bet, great, you will win, but maybe you would win more in these other markets or buying Big Pharma shares.
I'm not trying to put you off your retirement plan, but to try to explain why you can still get 1.04 on a stone cold certainty.
💖 Be able to do cartwheels in a thong
💖 Be a solid 6/10 (London over 30s division)
💖 Keen interest in environmental and animal welfare issues
I would have interpreted Cummings and Frost going as a BINO deal.
We should treat them staying as a compromise deal which is what should always be the most likely scenario.
https://twitter.com/lionelbarber/status/1326663466455883776?s=21
Every PM throughout all of history (and every monarch before then) has had unelected advisors.
If this poll really did reflect the reality, then GOP politicians wouldn't be scrambling over themselves to keep their heads down. And would be taking serious flack for failing to accelerate the transition process.
But this is not a realistic risk any more. Biden won too many states, and by too many votes. It is not like Bush vs Gore in 2000 when a single large state, Florida, swung the whole election on just 500 votes.
I wonder if quite often in the past "Downing Street sources" was perhaps not Cummings and was this guys afterall.
And no accelerating the transition process wins no votes (except perhaps for the Collins/Murkowski wing of the party). The 3% that believe Trump won may be eccentric but they will also be much more likely to be primary voters so why give them ammunition?
If you're a Republican worried about the next primary season the safest thing to do is in cricket terms to play it with a dead bat, mumbling something about how it isn't confirmed and the legal process needs to play out - without doing anything to interfere in that legal process.
There's a difference between on the record legitimate briefings and off the record leaking ones though.
After that it will just get even more humiliating.
If Trump is still claiming he's going to win the EC votes and people are still betting on Trump in the exchange then Betfair may decide they want the commission on the extra bets the issue isn't settled yet.
Looks like one ambitious individual sought a promotion, had it denied, and flounced as a result. In any other sector that would not be newsworthy.
Accusations of share price bumping.
Could the ending of the transition period with no deal is sight have anything to do with it?
And the picture it posts of Johnson at the Abbey is far, far from flattering.
Which contradictory polling? I've seen polling showing lots of people don't think the election was free and fair. Now, if a pollster asked me that question, I might well honestly answer "no" - although "free and fair" is always a matter of degree there's plenty of evidence of Republican voter suppression. In fact, maybe the main reason I would answer "yes" to a pollster would be to avoid giving any ammunition to the Trumpites trying to steal the election.
But if you ask me who won the election I would definitely say "Biden".
Now it's also possible Republican voters think the election wasn't "free and fair" and also think that Biden won. Just like I think Trump won the 2016 election, which wasn't especially free or fair imo.
The bewildered look.
Might just work.
Carrie Symonds, Allegra Stratton, Munira Mirza and Priti Patel all joined together to see him off
It looks as if Cumming's influence is on the way out as well so all in all well done the ladies
And the easiest to deliver and administer vaccine will eventually win out - but until multiple vaccines are available Pfizer wins.
Sick man at the helm; sick man of Europe once more.
'Chancellor considers middle class tax raid to pay for pandemic debt mountain'
Within the article is the sentence:
'Only 0.5% of the population paid capital gains tax in 2017-18.'
Yep. That's the squeezed middle alright.