I'm sure Sturgeon would cry into her porridge at only getting 51% in a referendum.
She won't, she would only get 48% on the same Yougov error as 2014 which really would see her crying into her porridge and irate Nats rallying behind Salmond to topple her for having killed off independence for yet another generation
Thank goodness Drakeford put in that lockdown/firebreak, or it would have been much worse.
You know it was a really good idea because Boris Johnson followed Drakeford's lead.
There is no evidence on the success or otherwise of the fire break
We know it was a success because Boris Johnson followed Drakeford's lead.
Nobody knows the result of the 17 day lockdown yet and even Drakeford says he cannot assess it for at least another 14 days
What is true is we are continuing to suffer here in North Wales and of course parts of South Wales have the highest rates in the whole of the UK notwithstanding the lockdown
Merthyr is still bad, and one other (Caerphilly?) I believe you are being mischievous in hinting that it is worse in Wales than England (we are doing well, I believe, in the Vale of Glamorgan) in order to big up Johnson's awesome English lockdown.
Looks like things were already moving in the right direction before the lockdown in England. Cases stable for multiple weeks, admissions also have stabilised.
I thought the R rate in Southern England was going through the roof prior to lockdown? Hat's off to Boris for calling lockdown, even if it was a few weeks late!
I'm sure Sturgeon would cry into her porridge at only getting 51% in a referendum.
The narrative was on here that independence is inevitable and thatthe 60% mark was within touching fistance. Quite clearly its not - and any campaign would equate to shifts in that overall figure.
I'm sure Sturgeon would cry into her porridge at only getting 51% in a referendum.
The narrative was on here that independence is inevitable and thatthe 60% mark was within touching fistance. Quite clearly its not - and any campaign would equate to shifts in that overall figure.
Indeed, Remain got 62% in 2016 in Scotland so Yes really should be over 60% if Brexit was the be all and end all for the Union, for Yes to be only on 51% therefore is a pretty awful result for Sturgeon and will lead to serious murmurings amongst Nat hardliners and over at Wings where they are already furious with her for her treatment of Salmond
I'm sure Sturgeon would cry into her porridge at only getting 51% in a referendum.
She won't, she would only get 48% on the same Yougov error as 2014 which really would see her crying into her porridge and irate Nats rallying behind Salmond to topple her for having killed off independence for yet another generation
I think the point is that this is quite conceivably peak SNP/Indy due to Covid and the transformation of Sturgeon's favourability ratings. May not endure, especially if Boris departs, the Salmond inquiry explodes, or people start refocusing on the economy and the SNP track record on services such as education.
It's why a lot of Nationalists are so frustrated with Sturgeon for not , somehow, grasping the moment.
Personally, I'm not sure what they expect her to do, but there you are.
After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?
Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
Pretty sure it was Spain.
It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
Yep, this is it - or one version of it. I find I was thinking of the summer outbreaks. Plenty from overseas but mediated via rUK. Haven't got time to reread it (work calls) but it should be borne in mind that if these lineages had not come over the border they would not haqve caused outbreaks. At least one other PBer couldn't grasp that point. (We're not talking direct competition between virus lineages within hosts, as that needs far greater levekls of infection within the population.)
Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK.
So introduced from abroad, not from England.
Originally, yes, But not necessarily into Wales at the time. That original document we discussed did show a map of that kind - which surprised m e because one would expect more introduction fropm say Spain and less of a signal over the border. That's what i remember and we did then discuss it.
The idea that the current outbreak in Wales was caused by the English is inconsistent with that part of the document. It came from abroad into multiple places in the UK simultaneously.
Wording is acvtually compatible with both happening. But we really need that docuiment we discussed earlier this year to see that map I remember.
ppp 4-5 refer. I think this is a summary of the earluer work that we were discussing back when. Anyway they do consider import over the border significant - inclouding import from the Med first to England. As both you and I expect, some oif it would be direct to eg Cardiff Airport, but a non-trivial proportion over the border. Which is the rationale for closing it - in either direction.
Yes a bad poll for Nats and an encouraging poll for Unionists from Yougov, Yougov's final 2014 poll was No 52% and Yes 48% so on the same error No would win 52% to 48% for Yes
Also it shows the Nats on course to increase their majority, Tories down 7 seats is hardly surprising and could be worse, I don't suppose Boris has many fans up there and they've lost Ruth Davidson who was worth quite a few votes, It's much worse for Labour also down 7 and still way behind the Tories, is the SKS honeymoon over? The Lib/Dems unchanged on 5 seats, falling behind the Greens. Dear oh Dear what ever happened to Cleggmania?
Yes a bad poll for Nats and an encouraging poll for Unionists from Yougov, Yougov's final 2014 poll was No 52% and Yes 48% so on the same error No would win 52% to 48% for Yes
Also it shows the Nats on course to increase their majority, Tories down 7 seats is hardly surprising and could be worse, I don't suppose Boris has many fans up there and they've lost Ruth Davidson who was worth quite a few votes, It's much worse for Labour also down 7 and still way behind the Tories, is the SKS honeymoon over? The Lib/Dems unchanged on 5 seats, falling behind the Greens. Dear oh Dear what ever happened to Cleggmania?
Haven't had Brexit yet either, mind. We're all still waiting to see if we get BINO or a hard break and turnips for Burns Night sans spuds and haggis, Valentines, and so on. .
Sequence of events: 1Trump declares state of emergency ostensibly in order to eliminate Covid. 2 Declares Martial Law, Supreme Court abolished 3Abortionists and Gays targetted 4 Strict religious way of life, 5All opposition eliminated 6 Biden flees to Canada, sets up Government in exile 7 Civil War 8 Russia helps Trump, invades Europe 9 A new dark age Its all amazingly like the book, we all scoffed at, you know The Handmaids Tale!!!
I'm sure Sturgeon would cry into her porridge at only getting 51% in a referendum.
The narrative was on here that independence is inevitable and thatthe 60% mark was within touching fistance. Quite clearly its not - and any campaign would equate to shifts in that overall figure.
Indeed, Remain got 62% in 2016 in Scotland so Yes really should be over 60% if Brexit was the be all and end all for the Union, for Yes to be only on 51% therefore is a pretty awful result for Sturgeon and will lead to serious murmurings amongst Nat hardliners and over at Wings where they are already furious with her for her treatment of Salmond
Rewmain used to be on 75% in Scotland in 2012, as I recall - hence Mr Cameron's confidence in sighing the all or nothing Edinburgh agreement rather than offering true devolution and FFA, which woiuld have won outright in 2014 rather than leaving Mr C wityh dirty trousers.
I'm sure Sturgeon would cry into her porridge at only getting 51% in a referendum.
The narrative was on here that independence is inevitable and thatthe 60% mark was within touching fistance. Quite clearly its not - and any campaign would equate to shifts in that overall figure.
A margin of error swing doesn't "quite clearly" demonstrate anything.
And a campaign could result in shifts going either direction.
Sequence of events: 1Trump declares state of emergency ostensibly in order to eliminate Covid. 2 Declares Martial Law, Supreme Court abolished 3Abortionists and Gays targetted 4 Strict religious way of life, 5All opposition eliminated 6 Biden flees to Canada, sets up Government in exile 7 Civil War 8 Russia helps Trump, invades Europe 9 A new dark age Its all amazingly like the book, we all scoffed at, you know The Handmaids Tale!!!
California would declare independence on that scenario, most of the North East of the US would apply to join Canada as would the Upper Midwest and Pacific North West, Mexico could invade Trumpland from the South, Putin would invade Alaska from the North, China might use the distraction to invade Taiwan, the Arab nations to invade Israel, Japan and India and Australia unite to contain China and we are into WW3
Yes a bad poll for Nats and an encouraging poll for Unionists from Yougov, Yougov's final 2014 poll was No 52% and Yes 48% so on the same error No would win 52% to 48% for Yes
Also it shows the Nats on course to increase their majority, Tories down 7 seats is hardly surprising and could be worse, I don't suppose Boris has many fans up there and they've lost Ruth Davidson who was worth quite a few votes, It's much worse for Labour also down 7 and still way behind the Tories, is the SKS honeymoon over? The Lib/Dems unchanged on 5 seats, falling behind the Greens. Dear oh Dear what ever happened to Cleggmania?
Labour needs Unionist tactical votes from the Tories and LDs in the central belt constituencies
I'm sure Sturgeon would cry into her porridge at only getting 51% in a referendum.
The narrative was on here that independence is inevitable and thatthe 60% mark was within touching fistance. Quite clearly its not - and any campaign would equate to shifts in that overall figure.
A margin of error swing doesn't "quite clearly" demonstrate anything.
And a campaign could result in shifts going either direction.
Indeed - indy was on about 24% or so when Mr Cameron agreed to the 2014 referendum.
Thank goodness Drakeford put in that lockdown/firebreak, or it would have been much worse.
You know it was a really good idea because Boris Johnson followed Drakeford's lead.
There is no evidence on the success or otherwise of the fire break
We know it was a success because Boris Johnson followed Drakeford's lead.
Nobody knows the result of the 17 day lockdown yet and even Drakeford says he cannot assess it for at least another 14 days
What is true is we are continuing to suffer here in North Wales and of course parts of South Wales have the highest rates in the whole of the UK notwithstanding the lockdown
Merthyr is still bad, and one other (Caerphilly?) I believe you are being mischievous in hinting that it is worse in Wales than England (we are doing well, I believe, in the Vale of Glamorgan) in order to big up Johnson's awesome English lockdown.
That is unfair when it is recognised two areas in South Wales are the worst in the UK
Sequence of events: 1Trump declares state of emergency ostensibly in order to eliminate Covid. 2 Declares Martial Law, Supreme Court abolished 3Abortionists and Gays targetted 4 Strict religious way of life, 5All opposition eliminated 6 Biden flees to Canada, sets up Government in exile 7 Civil War 8 Russia helps Trump, invades Europe 9 A new dark age Its all amazingly like the book, we all scoffed at, you know The Handmaids Tale!!!
California would declare independence on that scenario, most of the North East of the US would apply to join Canada as would the Upper Midwest and Pacific North West, Mexico could invade Trumpland from the South, Putin would invade Alaska from the North, China might use the distraction to invade Taiwan, the Arab nations to invade Israel, Japan and India and Australia unite to contain China and we are into WW3
I'm sure Sturgeon would cry into her porridge at only getting 51% in a referendum.
The narrative was on here that independence is inevitable and thatthe 60% mark was within touching fistance. Quite clearly its not - and any campaign would equate to shifts in that overall figure.
You also need to build into that the likelihood that Johnson at least would be unlikely to be as soft a touch as Cameron in terms of the framing of the question and the eligibility to vote. A question along the lines of remaining part of or leaving the UK and with the franchise extending to all Scots in the UK might be the best on offer, if anything is put on offer.
I'm sure Sturgeon would cry into her porridge at only getting 51% in a referendum.
The narrative was on here that independence is inevitable and thatthe 60% mark was within touching fistance. Quite clearly its not - and any campaign would equate to shifts in that overall figure.
A margin of error swing doesn't "quite clearly" demonstrate anything.
And a campaign could result in shifts going either direction.
Indeed - indy was on about 24% or so when Mr Cameron agreed to the 2014 referendum.
The SNP got 45% in 2011, all that happened was those who had already voted SNP in 2011 went Yes in 2014, opinions are now much more rigid
I'm sure Sturgeon would cry into her porridge at only getting 51% in a referendum.
The narrative was on here that independence is inevitable and thatthe 60% mark was within touching fistance. Quite clearly its not - and any campaign would equate to shifts in that overall figure.
A margin of error swing doesn't "quite clearly" demonstrate anything.
And a campaign could result in shifts going either direction.
Indeed - indy was on about 24% or so when Mr Cameron agreed to the 2014 referendum.
The SNP got 45% in 2011, all that happened was those who had already voted SNP in 2011 went Yes in 2014, opinions are now much more rigid
Simply not true. A lot of Yes voters came from Labour. And quite a few people voted and vote SNP for their domestic policies. You can't do simple equation like that.
I'm sure Sturgeon would cry into her porridge at only getting 51% in a referendum.
The narrative was on here that independence is inevitable and thatthe 60% mark was within touching fistance. Quite clearly its not - and any campaign would equate to shifts in that overall figure.
A margin of error swing doesn't "quite clearly" demonstrate anything.
And a campaign could result in shifts going either direction.
Indeed - indy was on about 24% or so when Mr Cameron agreed to the 2014 referendum.
Source?
In binary polls independence has been getting in the 40s pretty much every poll for decades as far as I know.
24% probably comes from a 3-way poll including more devolution as an option. Need to compare with binary polls.
Why the f&ck does anyone care about Lee effing Cain?
Was he the 'Downing Street source' all along?
Surely le roi est mort...applies?
You'd think so. Maybe there is concern amongst the hacks that the replacement won't be so 'helpful'?
Also goes to explain the hacks hysteria over having televised media briefings - something that is bog standard across the world and that our briefings are off camera is a bit of a weird anachronism finally being put right for the TV let alone the internet age.
But the hacks will no longer be gatekeepers to what was briefed and will no longer make a living reporting briefings and putting their own spin on it. Hence acting like "spokeswoman appears on camera" is a shocking travesty.
I was heard that that concern was expressed by some journalists at the derisive comments their questions at the daily COVID briefings got.
Apparently in a properly free and a democratic country the press should be revered, not questioned.
I'm sure Sturgeon would cry into her porridge at only getting 51% in a referendum.
The narrative was on here that independence is inevitable and thatthe 60% mark was within touching fistance. Quite clearly its not - and any campaign would equate to shifts in that overall figure.
A margin of error swing doesn't "quite clearly" demonstrate anything.
And a campaign could result in shifts going either direction.
Indeed - indy was on about 24% or so when Mr Cameron agreed to the 2014 referendum.
The SNP got 45% in 2011, all that happened was those who had already voted SNP in 2011 went Yes in 2014, opinions are now much more rigid
Simply not true. A lot of Yes voters came from Labour. And quite a few people voted and vote SNP for their domestic policies. You can't do simple equation like that.
Many 2010 Westminster Labour voters were already voting SNP at the Holyrood 2011 elections before they went Yes in 2014.
There were exceptions of course but 80% of 2011 SNP voters voted Yes in 2014 and 69% of 2011 Labour voters voted No, 77% of 2011 LD voters voted No and 98% of 2011 Scottish Tory voters voted No
Yes a bad poll for Nats and an encouraging poll for Unionists from Yougov, Yougov's final 2014 poll was No 52% and Yes 48% so on the same error No would win 52% to 48% for Yes
I'm sure Sturgeon would cry into her porridge at only getting 51% in a referendum.
The narrative was on here that independence is inevitable and thatthe 60% mark was within touching fistance. Quite clearly its not - and any campaign would equate to shifts in that overall figure.
You also need to build into that the likelihood that Johnson at least would be unlikely to be as soft a touch as Cameron in terms of the framing of the question and the eligibility to vote. A question along the lines of remaining part of or leaving the UK and with the franchise extending to all Scots in the UK might be the best on offer, if anything is put on offer.
I'd welcome the chance to vote yes, but extending the franchise to Scots born voters in the rest of the UK would be logistically hard since the electoral roll doesn't record place of birth. It would probably require self-identification in which case you might well find that those who bother to vote skew Yes. Also, would you exclude non Scots resident in Scotland if you are going down the blood and soil route?
I'm sure Sturgeon would cry into her porridge at only getting 51% in a referendum.
She won't, she would only get 48% on the same Yougov error as 2014 which really would see her crying into her porridge and irate Nats rallying behind Salmond to topple her for having killed off independence for yet another generation
You cannot say that with any certainty but as a strong unionist I consider the issue as open to go either way
I'm sure Sturgeon would cry into her porridge at only getting 51% in a referendum.
The narrative was on here that independence is inevitable and thatthe 60% mark was within touching fistance. Quite clearly its not - and any campaign would equate to shifts in that overall figure.
You also need to build into that the likelihood that Johnson at least would be unlikely to be as soft a touch as Cameron in terms of the framing of the question and the eligibility to vote. A question along the lines of remaining part of or leaving the UK and with the franchise extending to all Scots in the UK might be the best on offer, if anything is put on offer.
We discussed that in 2012-3. Upshot was that there is no satisfactory way of a racial definition of a Scot because of the authentication issues and workload. Not to mention the degrees allowed or not. Thetre's the spectrum from, say, Mr Gove through Mr Cameron (or HMQ) to say the current descendant of Charles Edward Stuart.
Also, on exactly that logic all English etc incomers ought to be banned from voting. So e.g Angus Robertson would be disqualified as London-born.
The only workable criterion is residence and the only electoral registers available are Westminster or Local Gmt which latter is the one used for referenda anyway.
After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?
Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
Pretty sure it was Spain.
It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
Yep, this is it - or one version of it. I find I was thinking of the summer outbreaks. Plenty from overseas but mediated via rUK. Haven't got time to reread it (work calls) but it should be borne in mind that if these lineages had not come over the border they would not haqve caused outbreaks. At least one other PBer couldn't grasp that point. (We're not talking direct competition between virus lineages within hosts, as that needs far greater levekls of infection within the population.)
Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK.
So introduced from abroad, not from England.
Originally, yes, But not necessarily into Wales at the time. That original document we discussed did show a map of that kind - which surprised m e because one would expect more introduction fropm say Spain and less of a signal over the border. That's what i remember and we did then discuss it.
The idea that the current outbreak in Wales was caused by the English is inconsistent with that part of the document. It came from abroad into multiple places in the UK simultaneously.
Wording is acvtually compatible with both happening. But we really need that docuiment we discussed earlier this year to see that map I remember.
ppp 4-5 refer. I think this is a summary of the earluer work that we were discussing back when. Anyway they do consider import over the border significant - inclouding import from the Med first to England. As both you and I expect, some oif it would be direct to eg Cardiff Airport, but a non-trivial proportion over the border. Which is the rationale for closing it - in either direction.
I think the issue with trying to link the import to England rather ignores where the English go when they holiday in Wales. I.e. not the places that are worst hit. You don't see many holiday cottages in the old industrial heartlands... By contrast, the areas round Pembrokeshire where I went in September, were and are almost Covid free.
I'm sure Sturgeon would cry into her porridge at only getting 51% in a referendum.
The narrative was on here that independence is inevitable and thatthe 60% mark was within touching fistance. Quite clearly its not - and any campaign would equate to shifts in that overall figure.
A margin of error swing doesn't "quite clearly" demonstrate anything.
And a campaign could result in shifts going either direction.
Indeed - indy was on about 24% or so when Mr Cameron agreed to the 2014 referendum.
Source?
In binary polls independence has been getting in the 40s pretty much every poll for decades as far as I know.
24% probably comes from a 3-way poll including more devolution as an option. Need to compare with binary polls.
You might very well be right in it being a ternary poll.
Yes a bad poll for Nats and an encouraging poll for Unionists from Yougov, Yougov's final 2014 poll was No 52% and Yes 48% so on the same error No would win 52% to 48% for Yes
To be honest it is quite a bit lower than recent polls
Independence remains an active topic but it is a long way from being certain and of course it will be interesting to hear what Joe Biden says about it
Joe Biden is of Irish not Scottish ancestry and the Americans will not interfere in Scotland as they did over Ireland, they did not interfere with Madrid's actions in Catalonia in 2014 for example
Yes a bad poll for Nats and an encouraging poll for Unionists from Yougov, Yougov's final 2014 poll was No 52% and Yes 48% so on the same error No would win 52% to 48% for Yes
Imperial vaccine uses mRNA but can be stored in normal fridges, not super cold ones.
Someone in the vaccine taskforce needs to get them paired with a major pharma company ASAP so they can do their PIII trial quickly as this vaccine is almost identical to the Pfizer one that works.
Thank goodness Drakeford put in that lockdown/firebreak, or it would have been much worse.
You know it was a really good idea because Boris Johnson followed Drakeford's lead.
There is no evidence on the success or otherwise of the fire break
We know it was a success because Boris Johnson followed Drakeford's lead.
Nobody knows the result of the 17 day lockdown yet and even Drakeford says he cannot assess it for at least another 14 days
What is true is we are continuing to suffer here in North Wales and of course parts of South Wales have the highest rates in the whole of the UK notwithstanding the lockdown
Merthyr is still bad, and one other (Caerphilly?) I believe you are being mischievous in hinting that it is worse in Wales than England (we are doing well, I believe, in the Vale of Glamorgan) in order to big up Johnson's awesome English lockdown.
That is unfair when it is recognised two areas in South Wales are the worst in the UK
Merthyr is the worst in the UK, next worst are RCT in at number 9 and just inside the top ten, at number ten, Blaeunau Gwent.
Yes a bad poll for Nats and an encouraging poll for Unionists from Yougov, Yougov's final 2014 poll was No 52% and Yes 48% so on the same error No would win 52% to 48% for Yes
After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?
Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
Pretty sure it was Spain.
It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
Yep, this is it - or one version of it. I find I was thinking of the summer outbreaks. Plenty from overseas but mediated via rUK. Haven't got time to reread it (work calls) but it should be borne in mind that if these lineages had not come over the border they would not haqve caused outbreaks. At least one other PBer couldn't grasp that point. (We're not talking direct competition between virus lineages within hosts, as that needs far greater levekls of infection within the population.)
Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK.
So introduced from abroad, not from England.
Originally, yes, But not necessarily into Wales at the time. That original document we discussed did show a map of that kind - which surprised m e because one would expect more introduction fropm say Spain and less of a signal over the border. That's what i remember and we did then discuss it.
The idea that the current outbreak in Wales was caused by the English is inconsistent with that part of the document. It came from abroad into multiple places in the UK simultaneously.
Wording is acvtually compatible with both happening. But we really need that docuiment we discussed earlier this year to see that map I remember.
ppp 4-5 refer. I think this is a summary of the earluer work that we were discussing back when. Anyway they do consider import over the border significant - inclouding import from the Med first to England. As both you and I expect, some oif it would be direct to eg Cardiff Airport, but a non-trivial proportion over the border. Which is the rationale for closing it - in either direction.
I think the issue with trying to link the import to England rather ignores where the English go when they holiday in Wales. I.e. not the places that are worst hit. You don't see many holiday cottages in the old industrial heartlands... By contrast, the areas round Pembrokeshire where I went in September, were and are almost Covid free.
That is an interesting point there. Seemingly that also happens in England - very little pox in the SW despite appalling social distancing by holidaymakers - the locals just don't seem to catch it as often as opne might expect.
Sequence of events: 1Trump declares state of emergency ostensibly in order to eliminate Covid. 2 Declares Martial Law, Supreme Court abolished 3Abortionists and Gays targetted 4 Strict religious way of life, 5All opposition eliminated 6 Biden flees to Canada, sets up Government in exile 7 Civil War 8 Russia helps Trump, invades Europe 9 A new dark age Its all amazingly like the book, we all scoffed at, you know The Handmaids Tale!!!
California would declare independence on that scenario, most of the North East of the US would apply to join Canada as would the Upper Midwest and Pacific North West, Mexico could invade Trumpland from the South, Putin would invade Alaska from the North, China might use the distraction to invade Taiwan, the Arab nations to invade Israel, Japan and India and Australia unite to contain China and we are into WW3
Imperial vaccine uses mRNA but can be stored in normal fridges, not super cold ones.
Someone in the vaccine taskforce needs to get them paired with a major pharma company ASAP so they can do their PIII trial quickly as this vaccine is almost identical to the Pfizer one that works.
"Imperial has had some funding from the UK government for the vaccine research, around £7m of which is committed. "
No wonder they are moving at a much slower pace compared to the rest.
Sequence of events: 1Trump declares state of emergency ostensibly in order to eliminate Covid. 2 Declares Martial Law, Supreme Court abolished 3Abortionists and Gays targetted 4 Strict religious way of life, 5All opposition eliminated 6 Biden flees to Canada, sets up Government in exile 7 Civil War 8 Russia helps Trump, invades Europe 9 A new dark age Its all amazingly like the book, we all scoffed at, you know The Handmaids Tale!!!
California would declare independence on that scenario, most of the North East of the US would apply to join Canada as would the Upper Midwest and Pacific North West, Mexico could invade Trumpland from the South, Putin would invade Alaska from the North, China might use the distraction to invade Taiwan, the Arab nations to invade Israel, Japan and India and Australia unite to contain China and we are into WW3
It always helps to look on the bright side I find.
After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?
Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
Pretty sure it was Spain.
It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
Yep, this is it - or one version of it. I find I was thinking of the summer outbreaks. Plenty from overseas but mediated via rUK. Haven't got time to reread it (work calls) but it should be borne in mind that if these lineages had not come over the border they would not haqve caused outbreaks. At least one other PBer couldn't grasp that point. (We're not talking direct competition between virus lineages within hosts, as that needs far greater levekls of infection within the population.)
Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK.
So introduced from abroad, not from England.
Originally, yes, But not necessarily into Wales at the time. That original document we discussed did show a map of that kind - which surprised m e because one would expect more introduction fropm say Spain and less of a signal over the border. That's what i remember and we did then discuss it.
The idea that the current outbreak in Wales was caused by the English is inconsistent with that part of the document. It came from abroad into multiple places in the UK simultaneously.
Wording is acvtually compatible with both happening. But we really need that docuiment we discussed earlier this year to see that map I remember.
ppp 4-5 refer. I think this is a summary of the earluer work that we were discussing back when. Anyway they do consider import over the border significant - inclouding import from the Med first to England. As both you and I expect, some oif it would be direct to eg Cardiff Airport, but a non-trivial proportion over the border. Which is the rationale for closing it - in either direction.
I think the issue with trying to link the import to England rather ignores where the English go when they holiday in Wales. I.e. not the places that are worst hit. You don't see many holiday cottages in the old industrial heartlands... By contrast, the areas round Pembrokeshire where I went in September, were and are almost Covid free.
That is an interesting point there. Seemingly that also happens in England - very little pox in the SW despite appalling social distancing by holidaymakers - the locals just don't seem to catch it as often as opne might expect.
100s of years of practice at avoiding the grockels....
After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?
Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
Pretty sure it was Spain.
It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
Yep, this is it - or one version of it. I find I was thinking of the summer outbreaks. Plenty from overseas but mediated via rUK. Haven't got time to reread it (work calls) but it should be borne in mind that if these lineages had not come over the border they would not haqve caused outbreaks. At least one other PBer couldn't grasp that point. (We're not talking direct competition between virus lineages within hosts, as that needs far greater levekls of infection within the population.)
Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK.
So introduced from abroad, not from England.
Originally, yes, But not necessarily into Wales at the time. That original document we discussed did show a map of that kind - which surprised m e because one would expect more introduction fropm say Spain and less of a signal over the border. That's what i remember and we did then discuss it.
The idea that the current outbreak in Wales was caused by the English is inconsistent with that part of the document. It came from abroad into multiple places in the UK simultaneously.
Wording is acvtually compatible with both happening. But we really need that docuiment we discussed earlier this year to see that map I remember.
ppp 4-5 refer. I think this is a summary of the earluer work that we were discussing back when. Anyway they do consider import over the border significant - inclouding import from the Med first to England. As both you and I expect, some oif it would be direct to eg Cardiff Airport, but a non-trivial proportion over the border. Which is the rationale for closing it - in either direction.
I think the issue with trying to link the import to England rather ignores where the English go when they holiday in Wales. I.e. not the places that are worst hit. You don't see many holiday cottages in the old industrial heartlands... By contrast, the areas round Pembrokeshire where I went in September, were and are almost Covid free.
To mention Cardiff airport is missing the point that I do not know anyone who uses Cardiff Airport.
Manchester, Liverpool and Heathrow account for the vast majority of flights from North Wales.
I do accept that some visitors from England may well have passed on covid into parts of Wales but as has been said the places they visit have generally low rates of infection, ie Gwynedd, Meirionnydd and Pembrokeshire
Yes a bad poll for Nats and an encouraging poll for Unionists from Yougov, Yougov's final 2014 poll was No 52% and Yes 48% so on the same error No would win 52% to 48% for Yes
Yes a bad poll for Nats and an encouraging poll for Unionists from Yougov, Yougov's final 2014 poll was No 52% and Yes 48% so on the same error No would win 52% to 48% for Yes
I think the SNP lead will shrink once we get a trade deal with the EU and then Unionist tactical voting in the constituencies for the best party to beat the SNP becomes key
After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?
Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
Pretty sure it was Spain.
It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
Yep, this is it - or one version of it. I find I was thinking of the summer outbreaks. Plenty from overseas but mediated via rUK. Haven't got time to reread it (work calls) but it should be borne in mind that if these lineages had not come over the border they would not haqve caused outbreaks. At least one other PBer couldn't grasp that point. (We're not talking direct competition between virus lineages within hosts, as that needs far greater levekls of infection within the population.)
Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK.
So introduced from abroad, not from England.
Originally, yes, But not necessarily into Wales at the time. That original document we discussed did show a map of that kind - which surprised m e because one would expect more introduction fropm say Spain and less of a signal over the border. That's what i remember and we did then discuss it.
The idea that the current outbreak in Wales was caused by the English is inconsistent with that part of the document. It came from abroad into multiple places in the UK simultaneously.
Wording is acvtually compatible with both happening. But we really need that docuiment we discussed earlier this year to see that map I remember.
ppp 4-5 refer. I think this is a summary of the earluer work that we were discussing back when. Anyway they do consider import over the border significant - inclouding import from the Med first to England. As both you and I expect, some oif it would be direct to eg Cardiff Airport, but a non-trivial proportion over the border. Which is the rationale for closing it - in either direction.
I think the issue with trying to link the import to England rather ignores where the English go when they holiday in Wales. I.e. not the places that are worst hit. You don't see many holiday cottages in the old industrial heartlands... By contrast, the areas round Pembrokeshire where I went in September, were and are almost Covid free.
To mention Cardiff airport is missing the point that I do not know anyone who uses Cardiff Airport.
Manchester, Liverpool and Heathrow account for the vast majority of flights from North Wales.
I do accept that some visitors from England may well have passed on covid into parts of Wales but as has been said the places they visit have generally low rates of infection, ie Gwynedd, Meirionnydd and Pembrokeshire
Bristol Airport has lots of flights to sunshine locations.
Yes a bad poll for Nats and an encouraging poll for Unionists from Yougov, Yougov's final 2014 poll was No 52% and Yes 48% so on the same error No would win 52% to 48% for Yes
I think the SNP lead will shrink once we get a trade deal with the EU and then Unionist tactical voting in the constituencies for the best party to beat the SNP becomes key
After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?
Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
Pretty sure it was Spain.
It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
Yep, this is it - or one version of it. I find I was thinking of the summer outbreaks. Plenty from overseas but mediated via rUK. Haven't got time to reread it (work calls) but it should be borne in mind that if these lineages had not come over the border they would not haqve caused outbreaks. At least one other PBer couldn't grasp that point. (We're not talking direct competition between virus lineages within hosts, as that needs far greater levekls of infection within the population.)
Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK.
So introduced from abroad, not from England.
Originally, yes, But not necessarily into Wales at the time. That original document we discussed did show a map of that kind - which surprised m e because one would expect more introduction fropm say Spain and less of a signal over the border. That's what i remember and we did then discuss it.
The idea that the current outbreak in Wales was caused by the English is inconsistent with that part of the document. It came from abroad into multiple places in the UK simultaneously.
Wording is acvtually compatible with both happening. But we really need that docuiment we discussed earlier this year to see that map I remember.
ppp 4-5 refer. I think this is a summary of the earluer work that we were discussing back when. Anyway they do consider import over the border significant - inclouding import from the Med first to England. As both you and I expect, some oif it would be direct to eg Cardiff Airport, but a non-trivial proportion over the border. Which is the rationale for closing it - in either direction.
I think the issue with trying to link the import to England rather ignores where the English go when they holiday in Wales. I.e. not the places that are worst hit. You don't see many holiday cottages in the old industrial heartlands... By contrast, the areas round Pembrokeshire where I went in September, were and are almost Covid free.
To mention Cardiff airport is missing the point that I do not know anyone who uses Cardiff Airport.
Manchester, Liverpool and Heathrow account for the vast majority of flights from North Wales.
I do accept that some visitors from England may well have passed on covid into parts of Wales but as has been said the places they visit have generally low rates of infection, ie Gwynedd, Meirionnydd and Pembrokeshire
Not so, the flight into Cardiff from Zante was seen as a key vector into Wales in Aug/Sept.
I use Cardiff Airport when I can, which is not as often as I would like, I thus have to import my Covid into Wales via Bristol Airport.
After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?
Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
Pretty sure it was Spain.
It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
Yep, this is it - or one version of it. I find I was thinking of the summer outbreaks. Plenty from overseas but mediated via rUK. Haven't got time to reread it (work calls) but it should be borne in mind that if these lineages had not come over the border they would not haqve caused outbreaks. At least one other PBer couldn't grasp that point. (We're not talking direct competition between virus lineages within hosts, as that needs far greater levekls of infection within the population.)
Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK.
So introduced from abroad, not from England.
Originally, yes, But not necessarily into Wales at the time. That original document we discussed did show a map of that kind - which surprised m e because one would expect more introduction fropm say Spain and less of a signal over the border. That's what i remember and we did then discuss it.
The idea that the current outbreak in Wales was caused by the English is inconsistent with that part of the document. It came from abroad into multiple places in the UK simultaneously.
Wording is acvtually compatible with both happening. But we really need that docuiment we discussed earlier this year to see that map I remember.
ppp 4-5 refer. I think this is a summary of the earluer work that we were discussing back when. Anyway they do consider import over the border significant - inclouding import from the Med first to England. As both you and I expect, some oif it would be direct to eg Cardiff Airport, but a non-trivial proportion over the border. Which is the rationale for closing it - in either direction.
I think the issue with trying to link the import to England rather ignores where the English go when they holiday in Wales. I.e. not the places that are worst hit. You don't see many holiday cottages in the old industrial heartlands... By contrast, the areas round Pembrokeshire where I went in September, were and are almost Covid free.
To mention Cardiff airport is missing the point that I do not know anyone who uses Cardiff Airport.
Manchester, Liverpool and Heathrow account for the vast majority of flights from North Wales.
I do accept that some visitors from England may well have passed on covid into parts of Wales but as has been said the places they visit have generally low rates of infection, ie Gwynedd, Meirionnydd and Pembrokeshire
Bristol Airport has lots of flights to sunshine locations.
Ultimately Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish went to Spain on holiday same as the English. It's not as though the virus sees the the first three and says "oh they're not English so I shouldn't infect them" as some people really do seem think on here.
After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?
Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
Pretty sure it was Spain.
It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
Yep, this is it - or one version of it. I find I was thinking of the summer outbreaks. Plenty from overseas but mediated via rUK. Haven't got time to reread it (work calls) but it should be borne in mind that if these lineages had not come over the border they would not haqve caused outbreaks. At least one other PBer couldn't grasp that point. (We're not talking direct competition between virus lineages within hosts, as that needs far greater levekls of infection within the population.)
Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK.
So introduced from abroad, not from England.
Originally, yes, But not necessarily into Wales at the time. That original document we discussed did show a map of that kind - which surprised m e because one would expect more introduction fropm say Spain and less of a signal over the border. That's what i remember and we did then discuss it.
The idea that the current outbreak in Wales was caused by the English is inconsistent with that part of the document. It came from abroad into multiple places in the UK simultaneously.
Wording is acvtually compatible with both happening. But we really need that docuiment we discussed earlier this year to see that map I remember.
ppp 4-5 refer. I think this is a summary of the earluer work that we were discussing back when. Anyway they do consider import over the border significant - inclouding import from the Med first to England. As both you and I expect, some oif it would be direct to eg Cardiff Airport, but a non-trivial proportion over the border. Which is the rationale for closing it - in either direction.
I think the issue with trying to link the import to England rather ignores where the English go when they holiday in Wales. I.e. not the places that are worst hit. You don't see many holiday cottages in the old industrial heartlands... By contrast, the areas round Pembrokeshire where I went in September, were and are almost Covid free.
That is an interesting point there. Seemingly that also happens in England - very little pox in the SW despite appalling social distancing by holidaymakers - the locals just don't seem to catch it as often as opne might expect.
I think the locals were quite keen to social distance from the tourists though, and as it takes a while to get sick, the covid cases happen when the tourist gets home...
Sequence of events: 1Trump declares state of emergency ostensibly in order to eliminate Covid. 2 Declares Martial Law, Supreme Court abolished 3Abortionists and Gays targetted 4 Strict religious way of life, 5All opposition eliminated 6 Biden flees to Canada, sets up Government in exile 7 Civil War 8 Russia helps Trump, invades Europe 9 A new dark age Its all amazingly like the book, we all scoffed at, you know The Handmaids Tale!!!
1. Oklahoma declares that it won't recognise Biden as President 2. Trump pledges a new America for all states that recognise him - says "The brand new states are gonna treat you great!" 3. North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virginia all pledge allegiance to Trump. 4. Biden's inauguration goes ahead as planned, with Trump denouncing it as a coup 5. Trump sets up virtual presidency from 'occupied' Mar-a-lago 6. Biden serves his full term while Trump continues to tweet as if he were the legitimate President
Yes a bad poll for Nats and an encouraging poll for Unionists from Yougov, Yougov's final 2014 poll was No 52% and Yes 48% so on the same error No would win 52% to 48% for Yes
I think the SNP lead will shrink once we get a trade deal with the EU and then Unionist tactical voting in the constituencies for the best party to beat the SNP becomes key
And what happens if that doesn't work? English voters voted for no indy ref II so suck it up Jocks?
After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?
Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
Pretty sure it was Spain.
It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
Yep, this is it - or one version of it. I find I was thinking of the summer outbreaks. Plenty from overseas but mediated via rUK. Haven't got time to reread it (work calls) but it should be borne in mind that if these lineages had not come over the border they would not haqve caused outbreaks. At least one other PBer couldn't grasp that point. (We're not talking direct competition between virus lineages within hosts, as that needs far greater levekls of infection within the population.)
Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK.
So introduced from abroad, not from England.
Originally, yes, But not necessarily into Wales at the time. That original document we discussed did show a map of that kind - which surprised m e because one would expect more introduction fropm say Spain and less of a signal over the border. That's what i remember and we did then discuss it.
The idea that the current outbreak in Wales was caused by the English is inconsistent with that part of the document. It came from abroad into multiple places in the UK simultaneously.
Wording is acvtually compatible with both happening. But we really need that docuiment we discussed earlier this year to see that map I remember.
ppp 4-5 refer. I think this is a summary of the earluer work that we were discussing back when. Anyway they do consider import over the border significant - inclouding import from the Med first to England. As both you and I expect, some oif it would be direct to eg Cardiff Airport, but a non-trivial proportion over the border. Which is the rationale for closing it - in either direction.
I think the issue with trying to link the import to England rather ignores where the English go when they holiday in Wales. I.e. not the places that are worst hit. You don't see many holiday cottages in the old industrial heartlands... By contrast, the areas round Pembrokeshire where I went in September, were and are almost Covid free.
To mention Cardiff airport is missing the point that I do not know anyone who uses Cardiff Airport.
Manchester, Liverpool and Heathrow account for the vast majority of flights from North Wales.
I do accept that some visitors from England may well have passed on covid into parts of Wales but as has been said the places they visit have generally low rates of infection, ie Gwynedd, Meirionnydd and Pembrokeshire
Bristol Airport has lots of flights to sunshine locations.
Ultimately Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish went to Spain on holiday same as the English. It's not as though the virus sees the the first three and says "oh they're not English so I shouldn't infect them" as some people really do seem think on here.
Notd at all - the question was whether it even made senser to have a quarantine at the border. I was a bit surprised it made a bit more sense than one might think. Certainly the staycation period, with reduced foreign travel, might apply - on statistical grounds alone a bigger country would import more into a smaller country than the other way round. Thjough the grockle/emmet avoidance responde by the locals seems quite helpful.
After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?
Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
Pretty sure it was Spain.
It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
Yep, this is it - or one version of it. I find I was thinking of the summer outbreaks. Plenty from overseas but mediated via rUK. Haven't got time to reread it (work calls) but it should be borne in mind that if these lineages had not come over the border they would not haqve caused outbreaks. At least one other PBer couldn't grasp that point. (We're not talking direct competition between virus lineages within hosts, as that needs far greater levekls of infection within the population.)
Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK.
So introduced from abroad, not from England.
Originally, yes, But not necessarily into Wales at the time. That original document we discussed did show a map of that kind - which surprised m e because one would expect more introduction fropm say Spain and less of a signal over the border. That's what i remember and we did then discuss it.
The idea that the current outbreak in Wales was caused by the English is inconsistent with that part of the document. It came from abroad into multiple places in the UK simultaneously.
Wording is acvtually compatible with both happening. But we really need that docuiment we discussed earlier this year to see that map I remember.
ppp 4-5 refer. I think this is a summary of the earluer work that we were discussing back when. Anyway they do consider import over the border significant - inclouding import from the Med first to England. As both you and I expect, some oif it would be direct to eg Cardiff Airport, but a non-trivial proportion over the border. Which is the rationale for closing it - in either direction.
I think the issue with trying to link the import to England rather ignores where the English go when they holiday in Wales. I.e. not the places that are worst hit. You don't see many holiday cottages in the old industrial heartlands... By contrast, the areas round Pembrokeshire where I went in September, were and are almost Covid free.
That is an interesting point there. Seemingly that also happens in England - very little pox in the SW despite appalling social distancing by holidaymakers - the locals just don't seem to catch it as often as opne might expect.
I think the locals were quite keen to social distance from the tourists though, and as it takes a while to get sick, the covid cases happen when the tourist gets home...
Of course. 2-14 days to be pox-emitting, 4 or 5 the mode.
Sequence of events: 1Trump declares state of emergency ostensibly in order to eliminate Covid. 2 Declares Martial Law, Supreme Court abolished 3Abortionists and Gays targetted 4 Strict religious way of life, 5All opposition eliminated 6 Biden flees to Canada, sets up Government in exile 7 Civil War 8 Russia helps Trump, invades Europe 9 A new dark age Its all amazingly like the book, we all scoffed at, you know The Handmaids Tale!!!
California would declare independence on that scenario, most of the North East of the US would apply to join Canada as would the Upper Midwest and Pacific North West, Mexico could invade Trumpland from the South, Putin would invade Alaska from the North, China might use the distraction to invade Taiwan, the Arab nations to invade Israel, Japan and India and Australia unite to contain China and we are into WW3
It always helps to look on the bright side I find.
Sequence of events: 1Trump declares state of emergency ostensibly in order to eliminate Covid. 2 Declares Martial Law, Supreme Court abolished 3Abortionists and Gays targetted 4 Strict religious way of life, 5All opposition eliminated 6 Biden flees to Canada, sets up Government in exile 7 Civil War 8 Russia helps Trump, invades Europe 9 A new dark age Its all amazingly like the book, we all scoffed at, you know The Handmaids Tale!!!
California would declare independence on that scenario, most of the North East of the US would apply to join Canada as would the Upper Midwest and Pacific North West, Mexico could invade Trumpland from the South, Putin would invade Alaska from the North, China might use the distraction to invade Taiwan, the Arab nations to invade Israel, Japan and India and Australia unite to contain China and we are into WW3
It always helps to look on the bright side I find.
The downside is that this scenario is worrying close to Wild Wild West. The trauma induced by remembering Kenneth Branagh's facial hair in that film will cause a mental health crisis world wide....
Sequence of events: 1Trump declares state of emergency ostensibly in order to eliminate Covid. 2 Declares Martial Law, Supreme Court abolished 3Abortionists and Gays targetted 4 Strict religious way of life, 5All opposition eliminated 6 Biden flees to Canada, sets up Government in exile 7 Civil War 8 Russia helps Trump, invades Europe 9 A new dark age Its all amazingly like the book, we all scoffed at, you know The Handmaids Tale!!!
1. Oklahoma declares that it won't recognise Biden as President 2. Trump pledges a new America for all states that recognise him - says "The brand new states are gonna treat you great!" 3. North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virginia all pledge allegiance to Trump. 4. Biden's inauguration goes ahead as planned, with Trump denouncing it as a coup 5. Trump sets up virtual presidency from 'occupied' Mar-a-lago 6. Biden serves his full term while Trump continues to tweet as if he were the legitimate President
After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?
Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
Pretty sure it was Spain.
It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
Yep, this is it - or one version of it. I find I was thinking of the summer outbreaks. Plenty from overseas but mediated via rUK. Haven't got time to reread it (work calls) but it should be borne in mind that if these lineages had not come over the border they would not haqve caused outbreaks. At least one other PBer couldn't grasp that point. (We're not talking direct competition between virus lineages within hosts, as that needs far greater levekls of infection within the population.)
Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK.
So introduced from abroad, not from England.
Originally, yes, But not necessarily into Wales at the time. That original document we discussed did show a map of that kind - which surprised m e because one would expect more introduction fropm say Spain and less of a signal over the border. That's what i remember and we did then discuss it.
The idea that the current outbreak in Wales was caused by the English is inconsistent with that part of the document. It came from abroad into multiple places in the UK simultaneously.
Wording is acvtually compatible with both happening. But we really need that docuiment we discussed earlier this year to see that map I remember.
ppp 4-5 refer. I think this is a summary of the earluer work that we were discussing back when. Anyway they do consider import over the border significant - inclouding import from the Med first to England. As both you and I expect, some oif it would be direct to eg Cardiff Airport, but a non-trivial proportion over the border. Which is the rationale for closing it - in either direction.
I think the issue with trying to link the import to England rather ignores where the English go when they holiday in Wales. I.e. not the places that are worst hit. You don't see many holiday cottages in the old industrial heartlands... By contrast, the areas round Pembrokeshire where I went in September, were and are almost Covid free.
To mention Cardiff airport is missing the point that I do not know anyone who uses Cardiff Airport.
Manchester, Liverpool and Heathrow account for the vast majority of flights from North Wales.
I do accept that some visitors from England may well have passed on covid into parts of Wales but as has been said the places they visit have generally low rates of infection, ie Gwynedd, Meirionnydd and Pembrokeshire
Bristol Airport has lots of flights to sunshine locations.
I was talking in the context of North Wales
South Wales is almost a different country in transport access from the North
Yes a bad poll for Nats and an encouraging poll for Unionists from Yougov, Yougov's final 2014 poll was No 52% and Yes 48% so on the same error No would win 52% to 48% for Yes
Deaths continue to remain very low in London / SE.
Anecdotally hearing of lots more cases now though. A month ago I’d never heard of anyone I knew getting Covid, or even talking about others they knew who had, but, in the last three weeks, two of my mates have got it, the cleaners daughter, my uncle has just tested positive, and the school my girlfriend works at has three pupils test positive today.
The week before lockdown my football match was called off because three of the opposition had it.
Both my mates recovered without hospital treatment, and my uncle feels ok. One of my mates who had it had been in contact with loads of people, including down the pub with me, in the days before his test, and none of us got it.
After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?
Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
Pretty sure it was Spain.
It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
Yep, this is it - or one version of it. I find I was thinking of the summer outbreaks. Plenty from overseas but mediated via rUK. Haven't got time to reread it (work calls) but it should be borne in mind that if these lineages had not come over the border they would not haqve caused outbreaks. At least one other PBer couldn't grasp that point. (We're not talking direct competition between virus lineages within hosts, as that needs far greater levekls of infection within the population.)
Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK.
So introduced from abroad, not from England.
Originally, yes, But not necessarily into Wales at the time. That original document we discussed did show a map of that kind - which surprised m e because one would expect more introduction fropm say Spain and less of a signal over the border. That's what i remember and we did then discuss it.
The idea that the current outbreak in Wales was caused by the English is inconsistent with that part of the document. It came from abroad into multiple places in the UK simultaneously.
Wording is acvtually compatible with both happening. But we really need that docuiment we discussed earlier this year to see that map I remember.
ppp 4-5 refer. I think this is a summary of the earluer work that we were discussing back when. Anyway they do consider import over the border significant - inclouding import from the Med first to England. As both you and I expect, some oif it would be direct to eg Cardiff Airport, but a non-trivial proportion over the border. Which is the rationale for closing it - in either direction.
I think the issue with trying to link the import to England rather ignores where the English go when they holiday in Wales. I.e. not the places that are worst hit. You don't see many holiday cottages in the old industrial heartlands... By contrast, the areas round Pembrokeshire where I went in September, were and are almost Covid free.
To mention Cardiff airport is missing the point that I do not know anyone who uses Cardiff Airport.
Manchester, Liverpool and Heathrow account for the vast majority of flights from North Wales.
I do accept that some visitors from England may well have passed on covid into parts of Wales but as has been said the places they visit have generally low rates of infection, ie Gwynedd, Meirionnydd and Pembrokeshire
Not so, the flight into Cardiff from Zante was seen as a key vector into Wales in Aug/Sept.
I use Cardiff Airport when I can, which is not as often as I would like, I thus have to import my Covid into Wales via Bristol Airport.
And Manchester and Liverpool flights returning North Wales residents to Wales
Sequence of events: 1Trump declares state of emergency ostensibly in order to eliminate Covid. 2 Declares Martial Law, Supreme Court abolished 3Abortionists and Gays targetted 4 Strict religious way of life, 5All opposition eliminated 6 Biden flees to Canada, sets up Government in exile 7 Civil War 8 Russia helps Trump, invades Europe 9 A new dark age Its all amazingly like the book, we all scoffed at, you know The Handmaids Tale!!!
1. Oklahoma declares that it won't recognise Biden as President 2. Trump pledges a new America for all states that recognise him - says "The brand new states are gonna treat you great!" 3. North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virginia all pledge allegiance to Trump. 4. Biden's inauguration goes ahead as planned, with Trump denouncing it as a coup 5. Trump sets up virtual presidency from 'occupied' Mar-a-lago 6. Biden serves his full term while Trump continues to tweet as if he were the legitimate President
I prefer this:- 6. Trump serves his "full term" after allegations of tax-evasion, money-laundering and racketeering, and continues to tweet as if he were the legitimate President from FSP Raiford.
Sequence of events: 1Trump declares state of emergency ostensibly in order to eliminate Covid. 2 Declares Martial Law, Supreme Court abolished 3Abortionists and Gays targetted 4 Strict religious way of life, 5All opposition eliminated 6 Biden flees to Canada, sets up Government in exile 7 Civil War 8 Russia helps Trump, invades Europe 9 A new dark age Its all amazingly like the book, we all scoffed at, you know The Handmaids Tale!!!
1. Oklahoma declares that it won't recognise Biden as President 2. Trump pledges a new America for all states that recognise him - says "The brand new states are gonna treat you great!" 3. North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virginia all pledge allegiance to Trump. 4. Biden's inauguration goes ahead as planned, with Trump denouncing it as a coup 5. Trump sets up virtual presidency from 'occupied' Mar-a-lago 6. Biden serves his full term while Trump continues to tweet as if he were the legitimate President
70% of Wyoming voted for Trump, the Trumpiest state in the Union. Oklahoma was a more restrained 65%.
Sequence of events: 1Trump declares state of emergency ostensibly in order to eliminate Covid. 2 Declares Martial Law, Supreme Court abolished 3Abortionists and Gays targetted 4 Strict religious way of life, 5All opposition eliminated 6 Biden flees to Canada, sets up Government in exile 7 Civil War 8 Russia helps Trump, invades Europe 9 A new dark age Its all amazingly like the book, we all scoffed at, you know The Handmaids Tale!!!
1. Oklahoma declares that it won't recognise Biden as President 2. Trump pledges a new America for all states that recognise him - says "The brand new states are gonna treat you great!" 3. North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virginia all pledge allegiance to Trump. 4. Biden's inauguration goes ahead as planned, with Trump denouncing it as a coup 5. Trump sets up virtual presidency from 'occupied' Mar-a-lago 6. Biden serves his full term while Trump continues to tweet as if he were the legitimate President
70% of Oklahomans voted for Trump, the Trumpiest state in the Union.
The main reason Texas is so difficult for the Democrats is there is a huge slice of NW TX that votes just like this.
After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?
Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
Pretty sure it was Spain.
It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
Yep, this is it - or one version of it. I find I was thinking of the summer outbreaks. Plenty from overseas but mediated via rUK. Haven't got time to reread it (work calls) but it should be borne in mind that if these lineages had not come over the border they would not haqve caused outbreaks. At least one other PBer couldn't grasp that point. (We're not talking direct competition between virus lineages within hosts, as that needs far greater levekls of infection within the population.)
Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK.
So introduced from abroad, not from England.
Originally, yes, But not necessarily into Wales at the time. That original document we discussed did show a map of that kind - which surprised m e because one would expect more introduction fropm say Spain and less of a signal over the border. That's what i remember and we did then discuss it.
The idea that the current outbreak in Wales was caused by the English is inconsistent with that part of the document. It came from abroad into multiple places in the UK simultaneously.
Wording is acvtually compatible with both happening. But we really need that docuiment we discussed earlier this year to see that map I remember.
ppp 4-5 refer. I think this is a summary of the earluer work that we were discussing back when. Anyway they do consider import over the border significant - inclouding import from the Med first to England. As both you and I expect, some oif it would be direct to eg Cardiff Airport, but a non-trivial proportion over the border. Which is the rationale for closing it - in either direction.
I think the issue with trying to link the import to England rather ignores where the English go when they holiday in Wales. I.e. not the places that are worst hit. You don't see many holiday cottages in the old industrial heartlands... By contrast, the areas round Pembrokeshire where I went in September, were and are almost Covid free.
To mention Cardiff airport is missing the point that I do not know anyone who uses Cardiff Airport.
Manchester, Liverpool and Heathrow account for the vast majority of flights from North Wales.
I do accept that some visitors from England may well have passed on covid into parts of Wales but as has been said the places they visit have generally low rates of infection, ie Gwynedd, Meirionnydd and Pembrokeshire
Bristol Airport has lots of flights to sunshine locations.
I was talking in the context of North Wales
South Wales is almost a different country in transport access from the North
Try going South to North, and vice- versa. Better off taking the M50, M5, M6 and M54 (or A55).
Sequence of events: 1Trump declares state of emergency ostensibly in order to eliminate Covid. 2 Declares Martial Law, Supreme Court abolished 3Abortionists and Gays targetted 4 Strict religious way of life, 5All opposition eliminated 6 Biden flees to Canada, sets up Government in exile 7 Civil War 8 Russia helps Trump, invades Europe 9 A new dark age Its all amazingly like the book, we all scoffed at, you know The Handmaids Tale!!!
1. Oklahoma declares that it won't recognise Biden as President 2. Trump pledges a new America for all states that recognise him - says "The brand new states are gonna treat you great!" 3. North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virginia all pledge allegiance to Trump. 4. Biden's inauguration goes ahead as planned, with Trump denouncing it as a coup 5. Trump sets up virtual presidency from 'occupied' Mar-a-lago 6. Biden serves his full term while Trump continues to tweet as if he were the legitimate President
Given Trump won every state of the old Confederacy except Virginia (and maybe Georgia), including his home state of Florida, he could in effect take over where Jefferson Davis left off and declare himself President of the Confederacy 2 with Mar-a-lago his new White House while Biden would become the successor to Lincoln in the remaining United States.
In fact excluding the DC suburbs Trump won Virginia as well
On topic, worth noting the dates above. The 20th November ratification date for Georgia is absolutely key. It's a Friday with Michigan and Pennsylvania the following Monday, Arizona the Monday after that, and Wisconsin / Nevada on the Tuesday.
If - and it is a massive if - Georgia does find there have been enough miscounted votes, errors and especially mail-in ballots that have been disqualified etc to switch the result, then all Hell is going to break loose. There would then be massive pressure on the other states to follow suit and, if they did not, the question of what state legislatures would do suddenly becomes critical. That's especially the case with Michigan and Pennsylvania, which have Democrat Governors / SoS / Supreme Courts but Republican legislatures.
The obvious rebut to this is to say they are not going to find enough votes to overturn the results, it's never happened before so it won't happen now. The answer to that is this is an unprecedented election given how votes were cast, and the level of mail-in ballots. Georgia's rejection rate is apparently 0.2%, Pennsylvania's at <0.05%. That compares with 21% of mail-ins for the NY Primary in June or - if you see that as extreme - Georgia's 1% rejection rate for its 2020 primaries or Wisconsin's 2%.
From a betting standpoint, there has been the message of Biden is an absolute steal at his price. If you are thinking of betting large, just consider the above.
Sequence of events: 1Trump declares state of emergency ostensibly in order to eliminate Covid. 2 Declares Martial Law, Supreme Court abolished 3Abortionists and Gays targetted 4 Strict religious way of life, 5All opposition eliminated 6 Biden flees to Canada, sets up Government in exile 7 Civil War 8 Russia helps Trump, invades Europe 9 A new dark age Its all amazingly like the book, we all scoffed at, you know The Handmaids Tale!!!
1. Oklahoma declares that it won't recognise Biden as President 2. Trump pledges a new America for all states that recognise him - says "The brand new states are gonna treat you great!" 3. North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virginia all pledge allegiance to Trump. 4. Biden's inauguration goes ahead as planned, with Trump denouncing it as a coup 5. Trump sets up virtual presidency from 'occupied' Mar-a-lago 6. Biden serves his full term while Trump continues to tweet as if he were the legitimate President
Given Trump won every state of the old Confederacy except Virginia, including his home state of Florida, he could in effect take over where Jefferson Davis left off and declare himself President of the Confederacy 2 with Mar-a-lago his new White House while Biden would become the successor to Lincoln in the remaining United States
Deaths continue to remain very low in London / SE.
Anecdotally hearing of lots more cases now though. A month ago I’d never heard of anyone I knew getting Covid, or even talking about others they knew who had, but, in the last three weeks, two of my mates have got it, the cleaners daughter, my uncle has just tested positive, and the school my girlfriend works at has three pupils test positive today.
The week before lockdown my football match was called off because three of the opposition had it.
Both my mates recovered without hospital treatment, and my uncle feels ok. One of my mates who had it had been in contact with loads of people, including down the pub with me, in the days before his test, and none of us got it.
My world remains remarkably untouched by Covid, thankfully.
Sequence of events: 1Trump declares state of emergency ostensibly in order to eliminate Covid. 2 Declares Martial Law, Supreme Court abolished 3Abortionists and Gays targetted 4 Strict religious way of life, 5All opposition eliminated 6 Biden flees to Canada, sets up Government in exile 7 Civil War 8 Russia helps Trump, invades Europe 9 A new dark age Its all amazingly like the book, we all scoffed at, you know The Handmaids Tale!!!
1. Oklahoma declares that it won't recognise Biden as President 2. Trump pledges a new America for all states that recognise him - says "The brand new states are gonna treat you great!" 3. North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virginia all pledge allegiance to Trump. 4. Biden's inauguration goes ahead as planned, with Trump denouncing it as a coup 5. Trump sets up virtual presidency from 'occupied' Mar-a-lago 6. Biden serves his full term while Trump continues to tweet as if he were the legitimate President
Given Trump won every state of the old Confederacy except Virginia, including his home state of Florida, he could in effect take over where Jefferson Davis left off and declare himself President of the Confederacy 2 with Mar-a-lago his new White House while Biden would become the successor to Lincoln in the remaining United States
Sequence of events: 1Trump declares state of emergency ostensibly in order to eliminate Covid. 2 Declares Martial Law, Supreme Court abolished 3Abortionists and Gays targetted 4 Strict religious way of life, 5All opposition eliminated 6 Biden flees to Canada, sets up Government in exile 7 Civil War 8 Russia helps Trump, invades Europe 9 A new dark age Its all amazingly like the book, we all scoffed at, you know The Handmaids Tale!!!
1. Oklahoma declares that it won't recognise Biden as President 2. Trump pledges a new America for all states that recognise him - says "The brand new states are gonna treat you great!" 3. North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virginia all pledge allegiance to Trump. 4. Biden's inauguration goes ahead as planned, with Trump denouncing it as a coup 5. Trump sets up virtual presidency from 'occupied' Mar-a-lago 6. Biden serves his full term while Trump continues to tweet as if he were the legitimate President
70% of Oklahomans voted for Trump, the Trumpiest state in the Union.
The main reason Texas is so difficult for the Democrats is there is a huge slice of NW TX that votes just like this.
Ooops! Meant to say:
70% of Wyoming voted for Trump, the Trumpiest state in the Union. Oklahoma was a more restrained 65%.
After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?
Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
Pretty sure it was Spain.
It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
Yep, this is it - or one version of it. I find I was thinking of the summer outbreaks. Plenty from overseas but mediated via rUK. Haven't got time to reread it (work calls) but it should be borne in mind that if these lineages had not come over the border they would not haqve caused outbreaks. At least one other PBer couldn't grasp that point. (We're not talking direct competition between virus lineages within hosts, as that needs far greater levekls of infection within the population.)
Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK.
So introduced from abroad, not from England.
Originally, yes, But not necessarily into Wales at the time. That original document we discussed did show a map of that kind - which surprised m e because one would expect more introduction fropm say Spain and less of a signal over the border. That's what i remember and we did then discuss it.
The idea that the current outbreak in Wales was caused by the English is inconsistent with that part of the document. It came from abroad into multiple places in the UK simultaneously.
Wording is acvtually compatible with both happening. But we really need that docuiment we discussed earlier this year to see that map I remember.
ppp 4-5 refer. I think this is a summary of the earluer work that we were discussing back when. Anyway they do consider import over the border significant - inclouding import from the Med first to England. As both you and I expect, some oif it would be direct to eg Cardiff Airport, but a non-trivial proportion over the border. Which is the rationale for closing it - in either direction.
I think the issue with trying to link the import to England rather ignores where the English go when they holiday in Wales. I.e. not the places that are worst hit. You don't see many holiday cottages in the old industrial heartlands... By contrast, the areas round Pembrokeshire where I went in September, were and are almost Covid free.
To mention Cardiff airport is missing the point that I do not know anyone who uses Cardiff Airport.
Manchester, Liverpool and Heathrow account for the vast majority of flights from North Wales.
I do accept that some visitors from England may well have passed on covid into parts of Wales but as has been said the places they visit have generally low rates of infection, ie Gwynedd, Meirionnydd and Pembrokeshire
Bristol Airport has lots of flights to sunshine locations.
I was talking in the context of North Wales
South Wales is almost a different country in transport access from the North
Try going South to North, and vice- versa. Better off taking the M50, M5, M6 and M54 (or A55).
Before covid my daughter regularly travelled for work to Newport by train and it took nearly 4 hours each way
She did drive occasionally but that was worse
I have never driven to Cardiff from Llandudno despite living and working in Wales for over 50 years, though I have gone on holiday to Pembrokeshire once
Sequence of events: 1Trump declares state of emergency ostensibly in order to eliminate Covid. 2 Declares Martial Law, Supreme Court abolished 3Abortionists and Gays targetted 4 Strict religious way of life, 5All opposition eliminated 6 Biden flees to Canada, sets up Government in exile 7 Civil War 8 Russia helps Trump, invades Europe 9 A new dark age Its all amazingly like the book, we all scoffed at, you know The Handmaids Tale!!!
1. Oklahoma declares that it won't recognise Biden as President 2. Trump pledges a new America for all states that recognise him - says "The brand new states are gonna treat you great!" 3. North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virginia all pledge allegiance to Trump. 4. Biden's inauguration goes ahead as planned, with Trump denouncing it as a coup 5. Trump sets up virtual presidency from 'occupied' Mar-a-lago 6. Biden serves his full term while Trump continues to tweet as if he were the legitimate President
70% of Wyoming voted for Trump, the Trumpiest state in the Union. Oklahoma was a more restrained 65%.
LOL. More New Yorkers (NYC, not state, that is) voted Trump than did natives of WY. Does that make NYC more Trumpy than WY?
Sequence of events: 1Trump declares state of emergency ostensibly in order to eliminate Covid. 2 Declares Martial Law, Supreme Court abolished 3Abortionists and Gays targetted 4 Strict religious way of life, 5All opposition eliminated 6 Biden flees to Canada, sets up Government in exile 7 Civil War 8 Russia helps Trump, invades Europe 9 A new dark age Its all amazingly like the book, we all scoffed at, you know The Handmaids Tale!!!
1. Oklahoma declares that it won't recognise Biden as President 2. Trump pledges a new America for all states that recognise him - says "The brand new states are gonna treat you great!" 3. North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virginia all pledge allegiance to Trump. 4. Biden's inauguration goes ahead as planned, with Trump denouncing it as a coup 5. Trump sets up virtual presidency from 'occupied' Mar-a-lago 6. Biden serves his full term while Trump continues to tweet as if he were the legitimate President
Given Trump won every state of the old Confederacy except Virginia, including his home state of Florida, he could in effect take over where Jefferson Davis left off and declare himself President of the Confederacy 2 with Mar-a-lago his new White House while Biden would become the successor to Lincoln in the remaining United States
It is clear that Barnier is a serious and respected person, but I have to say his tweets, including this one, only confirm to me that it is a medium that demeans all who use it.
Sequence of events: 1Trump declares state of emergency ostensibly in order to eliminate Covid. 2 Declares Martial Law, Supreme Court abolished 3Abortionists and Gays targetted 4 Strict religious way of life, 5All opposition eliminated 6 Biden flees to Canada, sets up Government in exile 7 Civil War 8 Russia helps Trump, invades Europe 9 A new dark age Its all amazingly like the book, we all scoffed at, you know The Handmaids Tale!!!
1. Oklahoma declares that it won't recognise Biden as President 2. Trump pledges a new America for all states that recognise him - says "The brand new states are gonna treat you great!" 3. North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virginia all pledge allegiance to Trump. 4. Biden's inauguration goes ahead as planned, with Trump denouncing it as a coup 5. Trump sets up virtual presidency from 'occupied' Mar-a-lago 6. Biden serves his full term while Trump continues to tweet as if he were the legitimate President
70% of Oklahomans voted for Trump, the Trumpiest state in the Union.
The main reason Texas is so difficult for the Democrats is there is a huge slice of NW TX that votes just like this.
Ooops! Meant to say:
70% of Wyoming voted for Trump, the Trumpiest state in the Union. Oklahoma was a more restrained 65%.
It's also the most irrelevant, with population of just over half a million.
I don't understand how after placing loads of faith in a long term plan with consistent rules, they then decided we can relax those. The whole point of their approach was that you didn't change and you lived with a certain amount of it, rather than chopping and changing between lockdown and relaxation.
Sequence of events: 1Trump declares state of emergency ostensibly in order to eliminate Covid. 2 Declares Martial Law, Supreme Court abolished 3Abortionists and Gays targetted 4 Strict religious way of life, 5All opposition eliminated 6 Biden flees to Canada, sets up Government in exile 7 Civil War 8 Russia helps Trump, invades Europe 9 A new dark age Its all amazingly like the book, we all scoffed at, you know The Handmaids Tale!!!
California would declare independence on that scenario, most of the North East of the US would apply to join Canada as would the Upper Midwest and Pacific North West, Mexico could invade Trumpland from the South, Putin would invade Alaska from the North, China might use the distraction to invade Taiwan, the Arab nations to invade Israel, Japan and India and Australia unite to contain China and we are into WW3
Sequence of events: 1Trump declares state of emergency ostensibly in order to eliminate Covid. 2 Declares Martial Law, tries to abolish the Supreme Court 3.Trump arrested and locked up.
After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?
Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
Pretty sure it was Spain.
It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
Yep, this is it - or one version of it. I find I was thinking of the summer outbreaks. Plenty from overseas but mediated via rUK. Haven't got time to reread it (work calls) but it should be borne in mind that if these lineages had not come over the border they would not haqve caused outbreaks. At least one other PBer couldn't grasp that point. (We're not talking direct competition between virus lineages within hosts, as that needs far greater levekls of infection within the population.)
Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK.
So introduced from abroad, not from England.
Originally, yes, But not necessarily into Wales at the time. That original document we discussed did show a map of that kind - which surprised m e because one would expect more introduction fropm say Spain and less of a signal over the border. That's what i remember and we did then discuss it.
The idea that the current outbreak in Wales was caused by the English is inconsistent with that part of the document. It came from abroad into multiple places in the UK simultaneously.
Wording is acvtually compatible with both happening. But we really need that docuiment we discussed earlier this year to see that map I remember.
ppp 4-5 refer. I think this is a summary of the earluer work that we were discussing back when. Anyway they do consider import over the border significant - inclouding import from the Med first to England. As both you and I expect, some oif it would be direct to eg Cardiff Airport, but a non-trivial proportion over the border. Which is the rationale for closing it - in either direction.
I think the issue with trying to link the import to England rather ignores where the English go when they holiday in Wales. I.e. not the places that are worst hit. You don't see many holiday cottages in the old industrial heartlands... By contrast, the areas round Pembrokeshire where I went in September, were and are almost Covid free.
To mention Cardiff airport is missing the point that I do not know anyone who uses Cardiff Airport.
Manchester, Liverpool and Heathrow account for the vast majority of flights from North Wales.
I do accept that some visitors from England may well have passed on covid into parts of Wales but as has been said the places they visit have generally low rates of infection, ie Gwynedd, Meirionnydd and Pembrokeshire
Bristol Airport has lots of flights to sunshine locations.
I was talking in the context of North Wales
South Wales is almost a different country in transport access from the North
Try going South to North, and vice- versa. Better off taking the M50, M5, M6 and M54 (or A55).
The A470 is a lovely road, as long as it's daylight, and you're not in a hurry. Watching the Red Kites be fed at Gigrin Farm is good fun too, though a cold place to wait if you're there too long before meal time.
I guess the surprisingly high rate of Covid-19 around the White House is because most of them are VIPs so the world gets to hear about their diagnoses but even so, it's a lot.
I guess the surprisingly high rate of Covid-19 around the White House is because most of them are VIPs so the world gets to hear about their diagnoses but even so, it's a lot.
Comments
https://data.london.gov.uk/dataset/coronavirus--covid-19--cases
It's why a lot of Nationalists are so frustrated with Sturgeon for not , somehow, grasping the moment.
Personally, I'm not sure what they expect her to do, but there you are.
ppp 4-5 refer. I think this is a summary of the earluer work that we were discussing back when. Anyway they do consider import over the border significant - inclouding import from the Med first to England. As both you and I expect, some oif it would be direct to eg Cardiff Airport, but a non-trivial proportion over the border. Which is the rationale for closing it - in either direction.
It's much worse for Labour also down 7 and still way behind the Tories, is the SKS honeymoon over?
The Lib/Dems unchanged on 5 seats, falling behind the Greens. Dear oh Dear what ever happened to Cleggmania?
1Trump declares state of emergency ostensibly in order to eliminate Covid.
2 Declares Martial Law, Supreme Court abolished
3Abortionists and Gays targetted
4 Strict religious way of life,
5All opposition eliminated
6 Biden flees to Canada, sets up Government in exile
7 Civil War
8 Russia helps Trump, invades Europe
9 A new dark age
Its all amazingly like the book, we all scoffed at, you know The Handmaids Tale!!!
And a campaign could result in shifts going either direction.
In binary polls independence has been getting in the 40s pretty much every poll for decades as far as I know.
24% probably comes from a 3-way poll including more devolution as an option. Need to compare with binary polls.
Apparently in a properly free and a democratic country the press should be revered, not questioned.
There were exceptions of course but 80% of 2011 SNP voters voted Yes in 2014 and 69% of 2011 Labour voters voted No, 77% of 2011 LD voters voted No and 98% of 2011 Scottish Tory voters voted No
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Post-referendum-poll-tables-Sept-2014.pdf
Independence remains an active topic but it is a long way from being certain and of course it will be interesting to hear what Joe Biden says about it
Also, on exactly that logic all English etc incomers ought to be banned from voting. So e.g Angus Robertson would be disqualified as London-born.
The only workable criterion is residence and the only electoral registers available are Westminster or Local Gmt which latter is the one used for referenda anyway.
Its none of America's business and I think he'd wisely pay more attention to Ireland issues than Scottish ones.
Imperial vaccine uses mRNA but can be stored in normal fridges, not super cold ones.
Someone in the vaccine taskforce needs to get them paired with a major pharma company ASAP so they can do their PIII trial quickly as this vaccine is almost identical to the Pfizer one that works.
No, didn't think so.
What's your Rajoyan take on the Holyrood poling?
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1326877186209574913?s=20
No wonder they are moving at a much slower pace compared to the rest.
Manchester, Liverpool and Heathrow account for the vast majority of flights from North Wales.
I do accept that some visitors from England may well have passed on covid into parts of Wales but as has been said the places they visit have generally low rates of infection, ie Gwynedd, Meirionnydd and Pembrokeshire
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1326876881493352448
And the list votes. Tories dfown too, but error limits.
Deaths continue to remain very low in London / SE.
Will the cuistoms bumf be ready?
Will anything be ready?
I use Cardiff Airport when I can, which is not as often as I would like, I thus have to import my Covid into Wales via Bristol Airport.
2. Trump pledges a new America for all states that recognise him - says "The brand new states are gonna treat you great!"
3. North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky and West Virginia all pledge allegiance to Trump.
4. Biden's inauguration goes ahead as planned, with Trump denouncing it as a coup
5. Trump sets up virtual presidency from 'occupied' Mar-a-lago
6. Biden serves his full term while Trump continues to tweet as if he were the legitimate President
South Wales is almost a different country in transport access from the North
Any second Scottish independence referendum won't happen before our 2024 UK General Election and Biden will be retired if and when it takes place.
Anyway he'll be reminded how badly Obama's attempt to influence our Brexit referendum when down and he'll keep well out of it.
The week before lockdown my football match was called off because three of the opposition had it.
Both my mates recovered without hospital treatment, and my uncle feels ok. One of my mates who had it had been in contact with loads of people, including down the pub with me, in the days before his test, and none of us got it.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/11/oklahoma-senator-lankford-biden-should-be-receiving-presidential-daily-briefings-transition.html
In fact excluding the DC suburbs Trump won Virginia as well
If - and it is a massive if - Georgia does find there have been enough miscounted votes, errors and especially mail-in ballots that have been disqualified etc to switch the result, then all Hell is going to break loose. There would then be massive pressure on the other states to follow suit and, if they did not, the question of what state legislatures would do suddenly becomes critical. That's especially the case with Michigan and Pennsylvania, which have Democrat Governors / SoS / Supreme Courts but Republican legislatures.
The obvious rebut to this is to say they are not going to find enough votes to overturn the results, it's never happened before so it won't happen now. The answer to that is this is an unprecedented election given how votes were cast, and the level of mail-in ballots. Georgia's rejection rate is apparently 0.2%, Pennsylvania's at <0.05%. That compares with 21% of mail-ins for the NY Primary in June or - if you see that as extreme - Georgia's 1% rejection rate for its 2020 primaries or Wisconsin's 2%.
From a betting standpoint, there has been the message of Biden is an absolute steal at his price. If you are thinking of betting large, just consider the above.
70% of Wyoming voted for Trump, the Trumpiest state in the Union. Oklahoma was a more restrained 65%.
A clear, concise and insightful analysis of statistics on the BBC. Well done. No Sleight of hand here!
She did drive occasionally but that was worse
I have never driven to Cardiff from Llandudno despite living and working in Wales for over 50 years, though I have gone on holiday to Pembrokeshire once
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1326761651811520516
1Trump declares state of emergency ostensibly in order to eliminate Covid.
2 Declares Martial Law, tries to abolish the Supreme Court
3.Trump arrested and locked up.
Trump retweeted a few of these kind of tweets. Looks like Trump TV will be on Newsmax.
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1326895024219435008
Ironic if they rerun a state Trump won...
https://twitter.com/janinegibson/status/1326917190306631680
https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1326919314096726019