I don't understand how after placing loads of faith in a long term plan with consistent rules, they then decided we can relax those. The whole point of their approach was that you didn't change and you lived with a certain amount of it, rather than chopping and changing between lockdown and relaxation.
From the outside I think they realised their policy might look rubbish if there was no long term immunity from catching the plague and/or a successful vaccine turned up.
In defence of the Swedes that is something they understood, something the Covid-19 deniers in the media didn't realise.
I don't understand how after placing loads of faith in a long term plan with consistent rules, they then decided we can relax those. The whole point of their approach was that you didn't change and you lived with a certain amount of it, rather than chopping and changing between lockdown and relaxation.
From the outside I think they realised their policy might look rubbish if there was no long term immunity from catching the plague and/or a successful vaccine turned up.
In defence of the Swedes that is something they understand, something the Covid-19 deniers in the media didn't realise.
Sweden's response to this throughout has been closer to the UK's (or vice-versa) than anyone tends to normally admit.
Those who tend to hold up "Sweden" as an alternative tend to be projecting what they want upon Sweden rather than looking at what Sweden has actually done.
After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?
Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
Pretty sure it was Spain.
It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
Yep, this is it - or one version of it. I find I was thinking of the summer outbreaks. Plenty from overseas but mediated via rUK. Haven't got time to reread it (work calls) but it should be borne in mind that if these lineages had not come over the border they would not haqve caused outbreaks. At least one other PBer couldn't grasp that point. (We're not talking direct competition between virus lineages within hosts, as that needs far greater levekls of infection within the population.)
Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK.
So introduced from abroad, not from England.
Originally, yes, But not necessarily into Wales at the time. That original document we discussed did show a map of that kind - which surprised m e because one would expect more introduction fropm say Spain and less of a signal over the border. That's what i remember and we did then discuss it.
The idea that the current outbreak in Wales was caused by the English is inconsistent with that part of the document. It came from abroad into multiple places in the UK simultaneously.
Wording is acvtually compatible with both happening. But we really need that docuiment we discussed earlier this year to see that map I remember.
ppp 4-5 refer. I think this is a summary of the earluer work that we were discussing back when. Anyway they do consider import over the border significant - inclouding import from the Med first to England. As both you and I expect, some oif it would be direct to eg Cardiff Airport, but a non-trivial proportion over the border. Which is the rationale for closing it - in either direction.
I think the issue with trying to link the import to England rather ignores where the English go when they holiday in Wales. I.e. not the places that are worst hit. You don't see many holiday cottages in the old industrial heartlands... By contrast, the areas round Pembrokeshire where I went in September, were and are almost Covid free.
To mention Cardiff airport is missing the point that I do not know anyone who uses Cardiff Airport.
Manchester, Liverpool and Heathrow account for the vast majority of flights from North Wales.
I do accept that some visitors from England may well have passed on covid into parts of Wales but as has been said the places they visit have generally low rates of infection, ie Gwynedd, Meirionnydd and Pembrokeshire
Bristol Airport has lots of flights to sunshine locations.
I was talking in the context of North Wales
South Wales is almost a different country in transport access from the North
Try going South to North, and vice- versa. Better off taking the M50, M5, M6 and M54 (or A55).
Before covid my daughter regularly travelled for work to Newport by train and it took nearly 4 hours each way
She did drive occasionally but that was worse
I have never driven to Cardiff from Llandudno despite living and working in Wales for over 50 years, though I have gone on holiday to Pembrokeshire once
It is dire, isn't it. Old friend of mine, who lives in Snowdonia, was appointed to a couple of Welsh Government advisory bodies. Liked driving, had a super car but it took him ages. A half day, afternoon, meeting meant a morning, with an early start, to get there and much of the next day to get back.
I guess the surprisingly high rate of Covid-19 around the White House is because most of them are VIPs so the world gets to hear about their diagnoses but even so, it's a lot.
According to the BBC's John Sopel Covid protocols inside the White House were lax to the point of non-existence.
After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?
Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
Pretty sure it was Spain.
It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
Yep, this is it - or one version of it. I find I was thinking of the summer outbreaks. Plenty from overseas but mediated via rUK. Haven't got time to reread it (work calls) but it should be borne in mind that if these lineages had not come over the border they would not haqve caused outbreaks. At least one other PBer couldn't grasp that point. (We're not talking direct competition between virus lineages within hosts, as that needs far greater levekls of infection within the population.)
Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK.
So introduced from abroad, not from England.
Originally, yes, But not necessarily into Wales at the time. That original document we discussed did show a map of that kind - which surprised m e because one would expect more introduction fropm say Spain and less of a signal over the border. That's what i remember and we did then discuss it.
The idea that the current outbreak in Wales was caused by the English is inconsistent with that part of the document. It came from abroad into multiple places in the UK simultaneously.
Wording is acvtually compatible with both happening. But we really need that docuiment we discussed earlier this year to see that map I remember.
ppp 4-5 refer. I think this is a summary of the earluer work that we were discussing back when. Anyway they do consider import over the border significant - inclouding import from the Med first to England. As both you and I expect, some oif it would be direct to eg Cardiff Airport, but a non-trivial proportion over the border. Which is the rationale for closing it - in either direction.
I think the issue with trying to link the import to England rather ignores where the English go when they holiday in Wales. I.e. not the places that are worst hit. You don't see many holiday cottages in the old industrial heartlands... By contrast, the areas round Pembrokeshire where I went in September, were and are almost Covid free.
To mention Cardiff airport is missing the point that I do not know anyone who uses Cardiff Airport.
Manchester, Liverpool and Heathrow account for the vast majority of flights from North Wales.
I do accept that some visitors from England may well have passed on covid into parts of Wales but as has been said the places they visit have generally low rates of infection, ie Gwynedd, Meirionnydd and Pembrokeshire
Bristol Airport has lots of flights to sunshine locations.
I was talking in the context of North Wales
South Wales is almost a different country in transport access from the North
Try going South to North, and vice- versa. Better off taking the M50, M5, M6 and M54 (or A55).
The A470 is a lovely road, as long as it's daylight, and you're not in a hurry. Watching the Red Kites be fed at Gigrin Farm is good fun too, though a cold place to wait if you're there too long before meal time.
The A470 used to be the bane of my life, For many years I lived just off Manor Way in Whitchurch, Cardiff. If it wasn't the constant hum of traffic that kept me awake at night, it was the tractors and slow moving trucks between Merthyr and Llanidloes that kept my car to a crawl.
After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?
Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
Pretty sure it was Spain.
It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
Yep, this is it - or one version of it. I find I was thinking of the summer outbreaks. Plenty from overseas but mediated via rUK. Haven't got time to reread it (work calls) but it should be borne in mind that if these lineages had not come over the border they would not haqve caused outbreaks. At least one other PBer couldn't grasp that point. (We're not talking direct competition between virus lineages within hosts, as that needs far greater levekls of infection within the population.)
Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK.
So introduced from abroad, not from England.
Originally, yes, But not necessarily into Wales at the time. That original document we discussed did show a map of that kind - which surprised m e because one would expect more introduction fropm say Spain and less of a signal over the border. That's what i remember and we did then discuss it.
The idea that the current outbreak in Wales was caused by the English is inconsistent with that part of the document. It came from abroad into multiple places in the UK simultaneously.
Wording is acvtually compatible with both happening. But we really need that docuiment we discussed earlier this year to see that map I remember.
ppp 4-5 refer. I think this is a summary of the earluer work that we were discussing back when. Anyway they do consider import over the border significant - inclouding import from the Med first to England. As both you and I expect, some oif it would be direct to eg Cardiff Airport, but a non-trivial proportion over the border. Which is the rationale for closing it - in either direction.
I think the issue with trying to link the import to England rather ignores where the English go when they holiday in Wales. I.e. not the places that are worst hit. You don't see many holiday cottages in the old industrial heartlands... By contrast, the areas round Pembrokeshire where I went in September, were and are almost Covid free.
To mention Cardiff airport is missing the point that I do not know anyone who uses Cardiff Airport.
Manchester, Liverpool and Heathrow account for the vast majority of flights from North Wales.
I do accept that some visitors from England may well have passed on covid into parts of Wales but as has been said the places they visit have generally low rates of infection, ie Gwynedd, Meirionnydd and Pembrokeshire
Bristol Airport has lots of flights to sunshine locations.
I was talking in the context of North Wales
South Wales is almost a different country in transport access from the North
Try going South to North, and vice- versa. Better off taking the M50, M5, M6 and M54 (or A55).
Before covid my daughter regularly travelled for work to Newport by train and it took nearly 4 hours each way
She did drive occasionally but that was worse
I have never driven to Cardiff from Llandudno despite living and working in Wales for over 50 years, though I have gone on holiday to Pembrokeshire once
Not during Drakeford's "county lines" lockdown, before lockdown, I trust.
I don't understand how after placing loads of faith in a long term plan with consistent rules, they then decided we can relax those. The whole point of their approach was that you didn't change and you lived with a certain amount of it, rather than chopping and changing between lockdown and relaxation.
From the outside I think they realised their policy might look rubbish if there was no long term immunity from catching the plague and/or a successful vaccine turned up.
In defence of the Swedes that is something they understood, something the Covid-19 deniers in the media didn't realise.
I have detected a touch of the "we've achieved herd immunity" from some of the statements made by the Swedes at times.
Big breaking news. Nicola Adams out of Strictly as Katya tests positive...
Bollocks.
I thought the great Strictly debate this year was all about bollocks, and the fact that neither Nicola or Katya had any.
Well yes, I fear this year is going to get cancelled, they are in a bubble, and yet Katya and Rylan have caught it, the last one standing will be HRVY as he's already had it.
I don't understand how after placing loads of faith in a long term plan with consistent rules, they then decided we can relax those. The whole point of their approach was that you didn't change and you lived with a certain amount of it, rather than chopping and changing between lockdown and relaxation.
From the outside I think they realised their policy might look rubbish if there was no long term immunity from catching the plague and/or a successful vaccine turned up.
In defence of the Swedes that is something they understand, something the Covid-19 deniers in the media didn't realise.
Sweden's response to this throughout has been closer to the UK's (or vice-versa) than anyone tends to normally admit.
Those who tend to hold up "Sweden" as an alternative tend to be projecting what they want upon Sweden rather than looking at what Sweden has actually done.
Indeed but I can show you some trend lines showing otherwise.
Big breaking news. Nicola Adams out of Strictly as Katya tests positive...
Bollocks.
I thought the great Strictly debate this year was all about bollocks, and the fact that neither Nicola or Katya had any.
Well yes, I fear this year is going to get cancelled, they are in a bubble, and yet Katya and Rylan have caught it, the last one standing will be HRVY as he's already had it.
I don't watch Strictly, that's bad if they are supposed to be in a bubble and it has failed. IPL just wrapped up with another total success for bubble idea in cricket.
On topic, worth noting the dates above. The 20th November ratification date for Georgia is absolutely key. It's a Friday with Michigan and Pennsylvania the following Monday, Arizona the Monday after that, and Wisconsin / Nevada on the Tuesday.
If - and it is a massive if - Georgia does find there have been enough miscounted votes, errors and especially mail-in ballots that have been disqualified etc to switch the result, then all Hell is going to break loose. There would then be massive pressure on the other states to follow suit and, if they did not, the question of what state legislatures would do suddenly becomes critical. That's especially the case with Michigan and Pennsylvania, which have Democrat Governors / SoS / Supreme Courts but Republican legislatures.
The obvious rebut to this is to say they are not going to find enough votes to overturn the results, it's never happened before so it won't happen now. The answer to that is this is an unprecedented election given how votes were cast, and the level of mail-in ballots. Georgia's rejection rate is apparently 0.2%, Pennsylvania's at <0.05%. That compares with 21% of mail-ins for the NY Primary in June or - if you see that as extreme - Georgia's 1% rejection rate for its 2020 primaries or Wisconsin's 2%.
From a betting standpoint, there has been the message of Biden is an absolute steal at his price. If you are thinking of betting large, just consider the above. </p>
Are there any miscounted votes in states where Trump won ?. As if not this seems like horse shit.
After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?
Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
Pretty sure it was Spain.
It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
Yep, this is it - or one version of it. I find I was thinking of the summer outbreaks. Plenty from overseas but mediated via rUK. Haven't got time to reread it (work calls) but it should be borne in mind that if these lineages had not come over the border they would not haqve caused outbreaks. At least one other PBer couldn't grasp that point. (We're not talking direct competition between virus lineages within hosts, as that needs far greater levekls of infection within the population.)
Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK.
So introduced from abroad, not from England.
Originally, yes, But not necessarily into Wales at the time. That original document we discussed did show a map of that kind - which surprised m e because one would expect more introduction fropm say Spain and less of a signal over the border. That's what i remember and we did then discuss it.
The idea that the current outbreak in Wales was caused by the English is inconsistent with that part of the document. It came from abroad into multiple places in the UK simultaneously.
Wording is acvtually compatible with both happening. But we really need that docuiment we discussed earlier this year to see that map I remember.
ppp 4-5 refer. I think this is a summary of the earluer work that we were discussing back when. Anyway they do consider import over the border significant - inclouding import from the Med first to England. As both you and I expect, some oif it would be direct to eg Cardiff Airport, but a non-trivial proportion over the border. Which is the rationale for closing it - in either direction.
I think the issue with trying to link the import to England rather ignores where the English go when they holiday in Wales. I.e. not the places that are worst hit. You don't see many holiday cottages in the old industrial heartlands... By contrast, the areas round Pembrokeshire where I went in September, were and are almost Covid free.
To mention Cardiff airport is missing the point that I do not know anyone who uses Cardiff Airport.
Manchester, Liverpool and Heathrow account for the vast majority of flights from North Wales.
I do accept that some visitors from England may well have passed on covid into parts of Wales but as has been said the places they visit have generally low rates of infection, ie Gwynedd, Meirionnydd and Pembrokeshire
Bristol Airport has lots of flights to sunshine locations.
I was talking in the context of North Wales
South Wales is almost a different country in transport access from the North
Try going South to North, and vice- versa. Better off taking the M50, M5, M6 and M54 (or A55).
Before covid my daughter regularly travelled for work to Newport by train and it took nearly 4 hours each way
She did drive occasionally but that was worse
I have never driven to Cardiff from Llandudno despite living and working in Wales for over 50 years, though I have gone on holiday to Pembrokeshire once
It is dire, isn't it. Old friend of mine, who lives in Snowdonia, was appointed to a couple of Welsh Government advisory bodies. Liked driving, had a super car but it took him ages. A half day, afternoon, meeting meant a morning, with an early start, to get there and much of the next day to get back.
You outline it exactly as my daughter finds it and she does not get home until quite late and utterly exhausted
Big breaking news. Nicola Adams out of Strictly as Katya tests positive...
Bollocks.
I thought the great Strictly debate this year was all about bollocks, and the fact that neither Nicola or Katya had any.
Well yes, I fear this year is going to get cancelled, they are in a bubble, and yet Katya and Rylan have caught it, the last one standing will be HRVY as he's already had it.
Thanks for the tip. I have just put £20 on HRVY at 10/3 with Paddy Power.
I don't understand how after placing loads of faith in a long term plan with consistent rules, they then decided we can relax those. The whole point of their approach was that you didn't change and you lived with a certain amount of it, rather than chopping and changing between lockdown and relaxation.
From the outside I think they realised their policy might look rubbish if there was no long term immunity from catching the plague and/or a successful vaccine turned up.
In defence of the Swedes that is something they understood, something the Covid-19 deniers in the media didn't realise.
I have detected a touch of the "we've achieved herd immunity" from some of the statements made by the Swedes at times.
I wonder how long before the far right citizen journalists go back to saying Sweden is a shithole we should hope not to emulate?
Big breaking news. Nicola Adams out of Strictly as Katya tests positive...
Bollocks.
I thought the great Strictly debate this year was all about bollocks, and the fact that neither Nicola or Katya had any.
Well yes, I fear this year is going to get cancelled, they are in a bubble, and yet Katya and Rylan have caught it, the last one standing will be HRVY as he's already had it.
Thanks for the tip. I have just put £20 on HRVY at 10/3 with Paddy Power.
He's a good dancer, my money has been on Bill Bailey as well.
After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?
Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
Pretty sure it was Spain.
It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
Yep, this is it - or one version of it. I find I was thinking of the summer outbreaks. Plenty from overseas but mediated via rUK. Haven't got time to reread it (work calls) but it should be borne in mind that if these lineages had not come over the border they would not haqve caused outbreaks. At least one other PBer couldn't grasp that point. (We're not talking direct competition between virus lineages within hosts, as that needs far greater levekls of infection within the population.)
Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK.
So introduced from abroad, not from England.
Originally, yes, But not necessarily into Wales at the time. That original document we discussed did show a map of that kind - which surprised m e because one would expect more introduction fropm say Spain and less of a signal over the border. That's what i remember and we did then discuss it.
The idea that the current outbreak in Wales was caused by the English is inconsistent with that part of the document. It came from abroad into multiple places in the UK simultaneously.
Wording is acvtually compatible with both happening. But we really need that docuiment we discussed earlier this year to see that map I remember.
ppp 4-5 refer. I think this is a summary of the earluer work that we were discussing back when. Anyway they do consider import over the border significant - inclouding import from the Med first to England. As both you and I expect, some oif it would be direct to eg Cardiff Airport, but a non-trivial proportion over the border. Which is the rationale for closing it - in either direction.
I think the issue with trying to link the import to England rather ignores where the English go when they holiday in Wales. I.e. not the places that are worst hit. You don't see many holiday cottages in the old industrial heartlands... By contrast, the areas round Pembrokeshire where I went in September, were and are almost Covid free.
To mention Cardiff airport is missing the point that I do not know anyone who uses Cardiff Airport.
Manchester, Liverpool and Heathrow account for the vast majority of flights from North Wales.
I do accept that some visitors from England may well have passed on covid into parts of Wales but as has been said the places they visit have generally low rates of infection, ie Gwynedd, Meirionnydd and Pembrokeshire
Bristol Airport has lots of flights to sunshine locations.
I was talking in the context of North Wales
South Wales is almost a different country in transport access from the North
Try going South to North, and vice- versa. Better off taking the M50, M5, M6 and M54 (or A55).
Before covid my daughter regularly travelled for work to Newport by train and it took nearly 4 hours each way
She did drive occasionally but that was worse
I have never driven to Cardiff from Llandudno despite living and working in Wales for over 50 years, though I have gone on holiday to Pembrokeshire once
Not during Drakeford's "county lines" lockdown, before lockdown, I trust.
Before covid she would travel 2 or 3 times a month to South Wales but of course she is working from home at present
And she has a stressful job leading a team of advisors at the DWP dealing with universal credit
After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?
Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
Pretty sure it was Spain.
It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
Yep, this is it - or one version of it. I find I was thinking of the summer outbreaks. Plenty from overseas but mediated via rUK. Haven't got time to reread it (work calls) but it should be borne in mind that if these lineages had not come over the border they would not haqve caused outbreaks. At least one other PBer couldn't grasp that point. (We're not talking direct competition between virus lineages within hosts, as that needs far greater levekls of infection within the population.)
Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK.
So introduced from abroad, not from England.
Originally, yes, But not necessarily into Wales at the time. That original document we discussed did show a map of that kind - which surprised m e because one would expect more introduction fropm say Spain and less of a signal over the border. That's what i remember and we did then discuss it.
The idea that the current outbreak in Wales was caused by the English is inconsistent with that part of the document. It came from abroad into multiple places in the UK simultaneously.
Wording is acvtually compatible with both happening. But we really need that docuiment we discussed earlier this year to see that map I remember.
ppp 4-5 refer. I think this is a summary of the earluer work that we were discussing back when. Anyway they do consider import over the border significant - inclouding import from the Med first to England. As both you and I expect, some oif it would be direct to eg Cardiff Airport, but a non-trivial proportion over the border. Which is the rationale for closing it - in either direction.
I think the issue with trying to link the import to England rather ignores where the English go when they holiday in Wales. I.e. not the places that are worst hit. You don't see many holiday cottages in the old industrial heartlands... By contrast, the areas round Pembrokeshire where I went in September, were and are almost Covid free.
To mention Cardiff airport is missing the point that I do not know anyone who uses Cardiff Airport.
Manchester, Liverpool and Heathrow account for the vast majority of flights from North Wales.
I do accept that some visitors from England may well have passed on covid into parts of Wales but as has been said the places they visit have generally low rates of infection, ie Gwynedd, Meirionnydd and Pembrokeshire
Bristol Airport has lots of flights to sunshine locations.
I was talking in the context of North Wales
South Wales is almost a different country in transport access from the North
Try going South to North, and vice- versa. Better off taking the M50, M5, M6 and M54 (or A55).
Before covid my daughter regularly travelled for work to Newport by train and it took nearly 4 hours each way
She did drive occasionally but that was worse
I have never driven to Cardiff from Llandudno despite living and working in Wales for over 50 years, though I have gone on holiday to Pembrokeshire once
Not during Drakeford's "county lines" lockdown, before lockdown, I trust.
Before covid she would travel 2 or 3 times a month to South Wales but of course she is working from home at present
And she has a stressful job leading a team of advisors at the DWP dealing with universal credit
On topic, worth noting the dates above. The 20th November ratification date for Georgia is absolutely key. It's a Friday with Michigan and Pennsylvania the following Monday, Arizona the Monday after that, and Wisconsin / Nevada on the Tuesday.
If - and it is a massive if - Georgia does find there have been enough miscounted votes, errors and especially mail-in ballots that have been disqualified etc to switch the result, then all Hell is going to break loose. There would then be massive pressure on the other states to follow suit and, if they did not, the question of what state legislatures would do suddenly becomes critical. That's especially the case with Michigan and Pennsylvania, which have Democrat Governors / SoS / Supreme Courts but Republican legislatures.
The obvious rebut to this is to say they are not going to find enough votes to overturn the results, it's never happened before so it won't happen now. The answer to that is this is an unprecedented election given how votes were cast, and the level of mail-in ballots. Georgia's rejection rate is apparently 0.2%, Pennsylvania's at <0.05%. That compares with 21% of mail-ins for the NY Primary in June or - if you see that as extreme - Georgia's 1% rejection rate for its 2020 primaries or Wisconsin's 2%.
From a betting standpoint, there has been the message of Biden is an absolute steal at his price. If you are thinking of betting large, just consider the above. </p>
Big breaking news. Nicola Adams out of Strictly as Katya tests positive...
Bollocks.
I thought the great Strictly debate this year was all about bollocks, and the fact that neither Nicola or Katya had any.
Well yes, I fear this year is going to get cancelled, they are in a bubble, and yet Katya and Rylan have caught it, the last one standing will be HRVY as he's already had it.
Thanks for the tip. I have just put £20 on HRVY at 10/3 with Paddy Power.
He's a good dancer, my money has been on Bill Bailey as well.
Ah, but does Bill Bailey abound with Covid antibodies?
Big breaking news. Nicola Adams out of Strictly as Katya tests positive...
Bollocks.
I thought the great Strictly debate this year was all about bollocks, and the fact that neither Nicola or Katya had any.
Well yes, I fear this year is going to get cancelled, they are in a bubble, and yet Katya and Rylan have caught it, the last one standing will be HRVY as he's already had it.
Thanks for the tip. I have just put £20 on HRVY at 10/3 with Paddy Power.
He's a good dancer, my money has been on Bill Bailey as well.
Ah, but does Bill Bailey abound with Covid antibodies?
After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?
Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
Pretty sure it was Spain.
It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
Yep, this is it - or one version of it. I find I was thinking of the summer outbreaks. Plenty from overseas but mediated via rUK. Haven't got time to reread it (work calls) but it should be borne in mind that if these lineages had not come over the border they would not haqve caused outbreaks. At least one other PBer couldn't grasp that point. (We're not talking direct competition between virus lineages within hosts, as that needs far greater levekls of infection within the population.)
Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK.
So introduced from abroad, not from England.
Originally, yes, But not necessarily into Wales at the time. That original document we discussed did show a map of that kind - which surprised m e because one would expect more introduction fropm say Spain and less of a signal over the border. That's what i remember and we did then discuss it.
The idea that the current outbreak in Wales was caused by the English is inconsistent with that part of the document. It came from abroad into multiple places in the UK simultaneously.
Wording is acvtually compatible with both happening. But we really need that docuiment we discussed earlier this year to see that map I remember.
ppp 4-5 refer. I think this is a summary of the earluer work that we were discussing back when. Anyway they do consider import over the border significant - inclouding import from the Med first to England. As both you and I expect, some oif it would be direct to eg Cardiff Airport, but a non-trivial proportion over the border. Which is the rationale for closing it - in either direction.
I think the issue with trying to link the import to England rather ignores where the English go when they holiday in Wales. I.e. not the places that are worst hit. You don't see many holiday cottages in the old industrial heartlands... By contrast, the areas round Pembrokeshire where I went in September, were and are almost Covid free.
To mention Cardiff airport is missing the point that I do not know anyone who uses Cardiff Airport.
Manchester, Liverpool and Heathrow account for the vast majority of flights from North Wales.
I do accept that some visitors from England may well have passed on covid into parts of Wales but as has been said the places they visit have generally low rates of infection, ie Gwynedd, Meirionnydd and Pembrokeshire
Bristol Airport has lots of flights to sunshine locations.
I was talking in the context of North Wales
South Wales is almost a different country in transport access from the North
Try going South to North, and vice- versa. Better off taking the M50, M5, M6 and M54 (or A55).
Before covid my daughter regularly travelled for work to Newport by train and it took nearly 4 hours each way
She did drive occasionally but that was worse
I have never driven to Cardiff from Llandudno despite living and working in Wales for over 50 years, though I have gone on holiday to Pembrokeshire once
Not during Drakeford's "county lines" lockdown, before lockdown, I trust.
Before covid she would travel 2 or 3 times a month to South Wales but of course she is working from home at present
And she has a stressful job leading a team of advisors at the DWP dealing with universal credit
On topic, worth noting the dates above. The 20th November ratification date for Georgia is absolutely key. It's a Friday with Michigan and Pennsylvania the following Monday, Arizona the Monday after that, and Wisconsin / Nevada on the Tuesday.
If - and it is a massive if - Georgia does find there have been enough miscounted votes, errors and especially mail-in ballots that have been disqualified etc to switch the result, then all Hell is going to break loose. There would then be massive pressure on the other states to follow suit and, if they did not, the question of what state legislatures would do suddenly becomes critical. That's especially the case with Michigan and Pennsylvania, which have Democrat Governors / SoS / Supreme Courts but Republican legislatures.
The obvious rebut to this is to say they are not going to find enough votes to overturn the results, it's never happened before so it won't happen now. The answer to that is this is an unprecedented election given how votes were cast, and the level of mail-in ballots. Georgia's rejection rate is apparently 0.2%, Pennsylvania's at <0.05%. That compares with 21% of mail-ins for the NY Primary in June or - if you see that as extreme - Georgia's 1% rejection rate for its 2020 primaries or Wisconsin's 2%.
From a betting standpoint, there has been the message of Biden is an absolute steal at his price. If you are thinking of betting large, just consider the above. </p>
Are there any miscounted votes in states where Trump won ?. As if not this seems like horse shit.
Point remains. In a normal election, we wouldn't be having this discussion.
This has not been a normal election re the level of mail-in. It's unprecedented.
Mail-in rejection rates in the recent past have typically been much higher than now. In fact, high enough to overturn the results.
Trying to say there is no risk from a full hand-count is too aggressive.
Do I think Biden has won? Absolutely.
Do I feel confident enough to pile on Biden at these levels given the background. No.
After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?
Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
Pretty sure it was Spain.
It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
Yep, this is it - or one version of it. I find I was thinking of the summer outbreaks. Plenty from overseas but mediated via rUK. Haven't got time to reread it (work calls) but it should be borne in mind that if these lineages had not come over the border they would not haqve caused outbreaks. At least one other PBer couldn't grasp that point. (We're not talking direct competition between virus lineages within hosts, as that needs far greater levekls of infection within the population.)
Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK.
So introduced from abroad, not from England.
Originally, yes, But not necessarily into Wales at the time. That original document we discussed did show a map of that kind - which surprised m e because one would expect more introduction fropm say Spain and less of a signal over the border. That's what i remember and we did then discuss it.
The idea that the current outbreak in Wales was caused by the English is inconsistent with that part of the document. It came from abroad into multiple places in the UK simultaneously.
Wording is acvtually compatible with both happening. But we really need that docuiment we discussed earlier this year to see that map I remember.
ppp 4-5 refer. I think this is a summary of the earluer work that we were discussing back when. Anyway they do consider import over the border significant - inclouding import from the Med first to England. As both you and I expect, some oif it would be direct to eg Cardiff Airport, but a non-trivial proportion over the border. Which is the rationale for closing it - in either direction.
I think the issue with trying to link the import to England rather ignores where the English go when they holiday in Wales. I.e. not the places that are worst hit. You don't see many holiday cottages in the old industrial heartlands... By contrast, the areas round Pembrokeshire where I went in September, were and are almost Covid free.
To mention Cardiff airport is missing the point that I do not know anyone who uses Cardiff Airport.
Manchester, Liverpool and Heathrow account for the vast majority of flights from North Wales.
I do accept that some visitors from England may well have passed on covid into parts of Wales but as has been said the places they visit have generally low rates of infection, ie Gwynedd, Meirionnydd and Pembrokeshire
Bristol Airport has lots of flights to sunshine locations.
I was talking in the context of North Wales
South Wales is almost a different country in transport access from the North
Try going South to North, and vice- versa. Better off taking the M50, M5, M6 and M54 (or A55).
Before covid my daughter regularly travelled for work to Newport by train and it took nearly 4 hours each way
She did drive occasionally but that was worse
I have never driven to Cardiff from Llandudno despite living and working in Wales for over 50 years, though I have gone on holiday to Pembrokeshire once
Not during Drakeford's "county lines" lockdown, before lockdown, I trust.
Before covid she would travel 2 or 3 times a month to South Wales but of course she is working from home at present
And she has a stressful job leading a team of advisors at the DWP dealing with universal credit
After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?
Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
Pretty sure it was Spain.
It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
Yep, this is it - or one version of it. I find I was thinking of the summer outbreaks. Plenty from overseas but mediated via rUK. Haven't got time to reread it (work calls) but it should be borne in mind that if these lineages had not come over the border they would not haqve caused outbreaks. At least one other PBer couldn't grasp that point. (We're not talking direct competition between virus lineages within hosts, as that needs far greater levekls of infection within the population.)
Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK.
So introduced from abroad, not from England.
Originally, yes, But not necessarily into Wales at the time. That original document we discussed did show a map of that kind - which surprised m e because one would expect more introduction fropm say Spain and less of a signal over the border. That's what i remember and we did then discuss it.
The idea that the current outbreak in Wales was caused by the English is inconsistent with that part of the document. It came from abroad into multiple places in the UK simultaneously.
Wording is acvtually compatible with both happening. But we really need that docuiment we discussed earlier this year to see that map I remember.
ppp 4-5 refer. I think this is a summary of the earluer work that we were discussing back when. Anyway they do consider import over the border significant - inclouding import from the Med first to England. As both you and I expect, some oif it would be direct to eg Cardiff Airport, but a non-trivial proportion over the border. Which is the rationale for closing it - in either direction.
I think the issue with trying to link the import to England rather ignores where the English go when they holiday in Wales. I.e. not the places that are worst hit. You don't see many holiday cottages in the old industrial heartlands... By contrast, the areas round Pembrokeshire where I went in September, were and are almost Covid free.
To mention Cardiff airport is missing the point that I do not know anyone who uses Cardiff Airport.
Manchester, Liverpool and Heathrow account for the vast majority of flights from North Wales.
I do accept that some visitors from England may well have passed on covid into parts of Wales but as has been said the places they visit have generally low rates of infection, ie Gwynedd, Meirionnydd and Pembrokeshire
Bristol Airport has lots of flights to sunshine locations.
I was talking in the context of North Wales
South Wales is almost a different country in transport access from the North
Try going South to North, and vice- versa. Better off taking the M50, M5, M6 and M54 (or A55).
Before covid my daughter regularly travelled for work to Newport by train and it took nearly 4 hours each way
She did drive occasionally but that was worse
I have never driven to Cardiff from Llandudno despite living and working in Wales for over 50 years, though I have gone on holiday to Pembrokeshire once
Not during Drakeford's "county lines" lockdown, before lockdown, I trust.
Before covid she would travel 2 or 3 times a month to South Wales but of course she is working from home at present
And she has a stressful job leading a team of advisors at the DWP dealing with universal credit
Are we looking at another excel spreadsheet balls up?
No, the specimen day data and regional specimen data tells the story. This is within the range of expectations because it's backfilling Monday and Tuesday specimen days which is weekend spillover.
If I was going to be harsh, I'd say this is the first sign of the lockdown effect which has a sugar rush of infections as people do a months worth of shopping, eating and drinking in a few days and see as many friends as possible before lockdown is imposed. Monday and Tuesday's specimens will have come from people who got infected on the 1st-4th of November.
The next 3-5 days worth of numbers in England will have this effect already baked in before we see some kind of drop.
Are we looking at another excel spreadsheet balls up?
No, the specimen day data and regional specimen data tells the story. This is within the range of expectations because it's backfilling Monday and Tuesday specimen days which is weekend spillover.
If I was going to be harsh, I'd say this is the first sign of the lockdown effect which has a sugar rush of infections as people do a months worth of shopping, eating and drinking in a few days and see as many friends as possible before lockdown is imposed. Monday and Tuesday's specimens will have come from people who got infected on the 1st-4th of November.
The next 3-5 days worth of numbers in England will have this effect already baked in before we see some kind of drop.
Data from the Government-run REACT mass-testing study today said it had seen a 'slowdown' in the spread of the virus at the start of this month, while scientists behind the Covid Symptom Study estimate the R number to now be below one.
On topic, worth noting the dates above. The 20th November ratification date for Georgia is absolutely key. It's a Friday with Michigan and Pennsylvania the following Monday, Arizona the Monday after that, and Wisconsin / Nevada on the Tuesday.
If - and it is a massive if - Georgia does find there have been enough miscounted votes, errors and especially mail-in ballots that have been disqualified etc to switch the result, then all Hell is going to break loose. There would then be massive pressure on the other states to follow suit and, if they did not, the question of what state legislatures would do suddenly becomes critical. That's especially the case with Michigan and Pennsylvania, which have Democrat Governors / SoS / Supreme Courts but Republican legislatures.
The obvious rebut to this is to say they are not going to find enough votes to overturn the results, it's never happened before so it won't happen now. The answer to that is this is an unprecedented election given how votes were cast, and the level of mail-in ballots. Georgia's rejection rate is apparently 0.2%, Pennsylvania's at <0.05%. That compares with 21% of mail-ins for the NY Primary in June or - if you see that as extreme - Georgia's 1% rejection rate for its 2020 primaries or Wisconsin's 2%.
From a betting standpoint, there has been the message of Biden is an absolute steal at his price. If you are thinking of betting large, just consider the above. </p>
Mate, it's over. Your man lost. Leave it.
Of course it's over. He lost. It's whether I would confident piling on Biden at what he is on now which some have suggested, And at large amounts.
On topic, worth noting the dates above. The 20th November ratification date for Georgia is absolutely key. It's a Friday with Michigan and Pennsylvania the following Monday, Arizona the Monday after that, and Wisconsin / Nevada on the Tuesday.
If - and it is a massive if - Georgia does find there have been enough miscounted votes, errors and especially mail-in ballots that have been disqualified etc to switch the result, then all Hell is going to break loose. There would then be massive pressure on the other states to follow suit and, if they did not, the question of what state legislatures would do suddenly becomes critical. That's especially the case with Michigan and Pennsylvania, which have Democrat Governors / SoS / Supreme Courts but Republican legislatures.
The obvious rebut to this is to say they are not going to find enough votes to overturn the results, it's never happened before so it won't happen now. The answer to that is this is an unprecedented election given how votes were cast, and the level of mail-in ballots. Georgia's rejection rate is apparently 0.2%, Pennsylvania's at <0.05%. That compares with 21% of mail-ins for the NY Primary in June or - if you see that as extreme - Georgia's 1% rejection rate for its 2020 primaries or Wisconsin's 2%.
From a betting standpoint, there has been the message of Biden is an absolute steal at his price. If you are thinking of betting large, just consider the above. </p>
Mate, it's over. Your man lost. Leave it.
He lost by over 5 million votes. Hate to think what would have occurred if he had lost by just over 500 votes in Florida.As the Al Gore in 2000.
This is very interesting. The general bien pensant view is that Trump’s tax cuts went overwhelmingly to the very rich. Yet this is a median number.
Are there any theories?
The economy grew, people got richer, Trump got more credit than he deserved just as he (and other Presidents) get more blame than they deserve when economies turn sour.
That histrionic outburst already has 147k likes in half an hour. The problem and potential pitfalls of a lunatic in charge still hasn't quite gone away yet.
This is very interesting. The general bien pensant view is that Trump’s tax cuts went overwhelmingly to the very rich. Yet this is a median number.
Are there any theories?
Vast military spending may have something to do with it. It also included spending on military-related infrastructure across the country, as I understand it.
Incredibly dodgy cherry-picking to choose 1999 as the start point, because there was no growth in US real median household income at all in the following ten years due to the dot-com crash and financial crash. By the time Trump took over from Obama, there was robust growth in incomes... which in fairness continued under Trump (although query how much that's fueled by a large and unsustainable budget deficit).
I think it's very early to assess Trump's economic legacy. He was President in good economic times (extreme turbulence of the past nine months aside), but the extent to which that was because of or despite him is probably only one that will become clear much later.
There was a conversation a bit earlier about another Scotland vote.
Unlike many on here I don’t take the view that on such critical matters (see also Brexit) one can just decide things with a simple, one-off majority vote. To take the point to absurdity, what if the 2014 referendum had been carried by just one vote?
Nor do I think that, having voted in 2014, it is appropriate to be having another vote any time soon. Although “once every generation” carries no legal weight, ever twenty years does not seem unreasonable for a question of this magnitude.
Extending the franchise to 16+ was worth about 0.5% in favour of Indy and I’ve no idea why this was granted.
I do also think it is worth looking at granting a vote to anyone born in Scotland who wishes to register as such. I do not know whether this would help or hinder independence, but I often wonder how I’d feel if my homeland (NZ) voted for some irrevocable break-up. I would certainly want a say in that, despite not living there for 20 years.
Are we looking at another excel spreadsheet balls up?
No, the specimen day data and regional specimen data tells the story. This is within the range of expectations because it's backfilling Monday and Tuesday specimen days which is weekend spillover.
If I was going to be harsh, I'd say this is the first sign of the lockdown effect which has a sugar rush of infections as people do a months worth of shopping, eating and drinking in a few days and see as many friends as possible before lockdown is imposed. Monday and Tuesday's specimens will have come from people who got infected on the 1st-4th of November.
The next 3-5 days worth of numbers in England will have this effect already baked in before we see some kind of drop.
I certainly visited 5 pubs in 3 days from 2-4 November. Don't seem to have caught anything though.
Incredibly dodgy cherry-picking to choose 1999 as the start point, because there was no growth in US real median household income at all in the following ten years due to the dot-com crash and financial crash. By the time Trump took over from Obama, there was robust growth in incomes... which in fairness continued under Trump (although query how much that's fueled by a large and unsustainable budget deficit).
I think it's very early to assess Trump's economic legacy. He was President in good economic times (extreme turbulence of the past nine months aside), but the extent to which that was because of or despite him is probably only one that will become clear much later.
He inherited a strong economy so the normal drill would have been to store up contingencies against tougher times and build up infrastructure and the like. Instead he spent wildly, especially in tax cuts for the wealthy. That's the general charge.
There was a conversation a bit earlier about another Scotland vote.
Unlike many on here I don’t take the view that on such critical matters (see also Brexit) one can just decide things with a simple, one-off majority vote. To take the point to absurdity, what if the 2014 referendum had been carried by just one vote?
Nor do I think that, having voted in 2014, it is appropriate to be having another vote any time soon. Although “once every generation” carries no legal weight, ever twenty years does not seem unreasonable for a question of this magnitude.
Extending the franchise to 16+ was worth about 0.5% in favour of Indy and I’ve no idea why this was granted.
I do also think it is worth looking at granting a vote to anyone born in Scotland who wishes to register as such. I do not know whether this would help or hinder independence, but I often wonder how I’d feel if my homeland (NZ) voted for some irrevocable break-up. I would certainly want a say in that, despite not living there for 20 years.
At least Scotland has had a party that believes in leaving in charge the whole time. Imagine Holyrood had no party wanting independence despite nearly (or just over) half the public wanting it
There was a conversation a bit earlier about another Scotland vote.
Unlike many on here I don’t take the view that on such critical matters (see also Brexit) one can just decide things with a simple, one-off majority vote. To take the point to absurdity, what if the 2014 referendum had been carried by just one vote?
Nor do I think that, having voted in 2014, it is appropriate to be having another vote any time soon. Although “once every generation” carries no legal weight, ever twenty years does not seem unreasonable for a question of this magnitude.
Extending the franchise to 16+ was worth about 0.5% in favour of Indy and I’ve no idea why this was granted.
I do also think it is worth looking at granting a vote to anyone born in Scotland who wishes to register as such. I do not know whether this would help or hinder independence, but I often wonder how I’d feel if my homeland (NZ) voted for some irrevocable break-up. I would certainly want a say in that, despite not living there for 20 years.
Quite entitled to hold the views you do: but just one small point: the Scottish franchise has generally been extennded to 16+ as a wider point of public principle - crossparty approval (including Smith Commission). It's Westminster is the holdout here.
Strangely, newspapers like the Guardian are all but ignoring the Cummings/Cain story at the moment, which might have potentially major implications for Brexit, while the Daily Mail are going all out on it.
Maybe they're worried about coverage also including Carrie, as one half of the conflict, being seen as tabloid-end, personality-politics or soapy, but that could be way off-target.
Comments
In defence of the Swedes that is something they understood, something the Covid-19 deniers in the media didn't realise.
Those who tend to hold up "Sweden" as an alternative tend to be projecting what they want upon Sweden rather than looking at what Sweden has actually done.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-47444107
Swallowing junk proposals without them touching the sides.
Ye Gods. All because of a "God told me" academic.
Nicola Adams out of Strictly as Katya tests positive...
https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1326916642157236229
A lot of people on this blog are not being fair to the GOP because the position they find themselves in is not easy.
Just had confirmation that my Pro Max 12 will be delivered tomorrow.
Now it seems to be a platform for very odd people to indulge their weirdest and most outlandish political fantasies.
As if not this seems like horse shit.
Another journalist egging it
And she has a stressful job leading a team of advisors at the DWP dealing with universal credit
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1326928089989963776
33,470 new positive cases...of which 30,843 are in England.
Cummings levelling up the North.
This has not been a normal election re the level of mail-in. It's unprecedented.
Mail-in rejection rates in the recent past have typically been much higher than now. In fact, high enough to overturn the results.
Trying to say there is no risk from a full hand-count is too aggressive.
Do I think Biden has won? Absolutely.
Do I feel confident enough to pile on Biden at these levels given the background. No.
https://twitter.com/Ike_Saul/status/1326927384956858368?s=20
"A lie".
https://twitter.com/sullydish/status/1326902077231083520?s=20
If I was going to be harsh, I'd say this is the first sign of the lockdown effect which has a sugar rush of infections as people do a months worth of shopping, eating and drinking in a few days and see as many friends as possible before lockdown is imposed. Monday and Tuesday's specimens will have come from people who got infected on the 1st-4th of November.
The next 3-5 days worth of numbers in England will have this effect already baked in before we see some kind of drop.
Neither of us are in any position to find fault with others – we were the worst performing tipsters on PB.
In fact I know it is.
Just a reminder though anyone who lies in court goes to jail.
Trouble getting lawyers since they asked for payment up front?
The general bien pensant view is that Trump’s tax cuts went overwhelmingly to the very rich.
Yet this is a median number.
Are there any theories?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8942973/Britain-records-33-470-new-Covid-19-cases.html
It's whether I would confident piling on Biden at what he is on now which some have suggested, And at large amounts.
Hate to think what would have occurred if he had lost by just over 500 votes in Florida.As the Al Gore in 2000.
I don't think you said 400+ EC votes.
There were some people on claiming Senate seats like Alaska, Montana and SC would go Democrat. That was pretty off.
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1326825910843154432?s=20
I think it's very early to assess Trump's economic legacy. He was President in good economic times (extreme turbulence of the past nine months aside), but the extent to which that was because of or despite him is probably only one that will become clear much later.
Unlike many on here I don’t take the view that on such critical matters (see also Brexit) one can just decide things with a simple, one-off majority vote. To take the point to absurdity, what if the 2014 referendum had been carried by just one vote?
Nor do I think that, having voted in 2014, it is appropriate to be having another vote any time soon. Although “once every generation” carries no legal weight, ever twenty years does not seem unreasonable for a question of this magnitude.
Extending the franchise to 16+ was worth about 0.5% in favour of Indy and I’ve no idea why this was granted.
I do also think it is worth looking at granting a vote to anyone born in Scotland who wishes to register as such. I do not know whether this would help or hinder independence, but I often wonder how I’d feel if my homeland (NZ) voted for some irrevocable break-up. I would certainly want a say in that, despite not living there for 20 years.
Trump absolutely ballooned the deficit. Obama consistently cut it.
Whether he is guilty or not....
Off to write it now.
It'll be the second AV thread this month.
Panelbase have Sindy up by 1 for 56/44 Yes/No.
Yes 51%, No 40% with DKs included.
https://twitter.com/PolitcalCapitaI/status/1326938464609308676?s=20
Maybe they're worried about coverage also including Carrie, as one half of the conflict, being seen as tabloid-end, personality-politics or soapy, but that could be way off-target.
Trump. OTOH, has CV to deal with (although he didn't do anything on the debt before).
In any event, it's about Household Income not budget deficits.