Considering the general rule that any polling option should always get at least 3% (except perhaps the Lib Dems) that is very good.
Sounds extremely suspicious to me. Especially with the other contradictory polling around.
If this poll really did reflect the reality, then GOP politicians wouldn't be scrambling over themselves to keep their heads down. And would be taking serious flack for failing to accelerate the transition process.
Most do seem to be keeping their heads down.
And no accelerating the transition process wins no votes (except perhaps for the Collins/Murkowski wing of the party). The 3% that believe Trump won may be eccentric but they will also be much more likely to be primary voters so why give them ammunition?
If you're a Republican worried about the next primary season the safest thing to do is in cricket terms to play it with a dead bat, mumbling something about how it isn't confirmed and the legal process needs to play out - without doing anything to interfere in that legal process.
I'd add most of the 13% to the 3%, as they are almost as much in denial. So you might guesstimate that perhaps a quarter of the Republican base who vote in primaries, maybe more, are not yet reconciled to reality.
It will be interesting to watch how much hold Trump retains on the party after he leaves the White House. It's not yet written in stone.
It's what happens when the government is run by journalists and PR people. They thrive on this kind of soap opera crap and are too trivial and indisciplined to have a real understanding of the substantive issues.
Indeed. Boris - journalist/game show host Gove - journalist Cain - PR Allegra - PR Carrie - PR Eddie Lister - Lobbyist Dom - Professional psycho and self-identifying savant.
The chumocracy leading to the kleptocracy is alive and well with lots of close bonds highlighted, but the link of both live in Islington is exceedingly tenuous, most people in Islington dont know each other!
Is it though? Or is this a massive proxy war for which level of shit deal Rasputin allows the PM to negotiate finally in the wee hours later this month?
That doesn't mean it's based on principles. I mean, it's not unknown for someone taking a policy position as a way of elbowing his way into a job, rather than out of principle. Or, "doing a Boris" as some would have it.
OGH, the states only certify they own state's vote, not the total count. If the betting firms are being absolute sticklers, they won't settle this bet until January 6th when the Joint Session of Congress formally counts the EC votes submitted by the states, and certifies that count, as Congress has the ability to throw out EC votes.
Do not Betfair's terms referent to 'projected' EVs ?
The chumocracy leading to the kleptocracy is alive and well with lots of close bonds highlighted, but the link of both live in Islington is exceedingly tenuous, most people in Islington dont know each other!
Cummings, Allegra and - before his divorce - Boris - live within a circle with approx 500m radius.
OGH, the states only certify they own state's vote, not the total count. If the betting firms are being absolute sticklers, they won't settle this bet until January 6th when the Joint Session of Congress formally counts the EC votes submitted by the states, and certifies that count, as Congress has the ability to throw out EC votes.
Do not Betfair's terms referent to 'projected' EVs ?
That is why no-one is really sure why Betfair has not already settled most of these markets, like the traditional bookmakers have.
Get over it. Advisors have never been elected, if they were they'd be MPs and they'd have their own advisors who would be unelected and repeat ad nauseum.
Every PM throughout all of history (and every monarch before then) has had unelected advisors.
I think thats fair - but there is also a difference, the PM is an empty vassal who will do whatever he believes is popular, and he has appointed a cabinet of yes men and women. The role of advisors is therefore much bigger than normal.
You have done well to identify Sunak and Patel as potential next leaders, they are the two who have stood up to no 10 the most.
Perhaps they could have gone down the route of saying they had given x million to councils and hoped councils would allocate it to school meals, rather than suggesting supermarket vouchers were being used in crack dens and brothels. Might be slightly less humiliating for them.
OGH, the states only certify they own state's vote, not the total count. If the betting firms are being absolute sticklers, they won't settle this bet until January 6th when the Joint Session of Congress formally counts the EC votes submitted by the states, and certifies that count, as Congress has the ability to throw out EC votes.
Do not Betfair's terms referent to 'projected' EVs ?
That is why no-one is really sure why Betfair has not already settled most of these markets, like the traditional bookmakers have.
Actions speak louder than words, that the market is still open and matching millions more per day gives the biggest clue that the market is not being settled on uncertified media projections.
Perhaps they could have gone down the route of saying they had given x million to councils and hoped councils would allocate it to school meals, rather than suggesting supermarket vouchers were being used in crack dens and brothels. Might be slightly less humiliating for them.
Anybody who leapt to the defence of the government over this Rashford stuff really only has themselves to blame. Fashionable though it is to blame Johnson for everything, a U-turn wasn't really a big surprise. Didn't Conservative MPs used to be more astute than this?
"The case against Cain was obvious. He has been in charge of the government’s communications, which are a shambles. In the past week alone, No 10 managed to blunder on the tweet congratulating Joe Biden on his presidential victory. The image had been crudely put together, with traces of an earlier message congratulating Donald Trump on winning a second term still visible."
"Minister after minister has a story to tell about being monstered by the No 10 spin operation. Johnson feigns ignorance or treats it as a joke. The risk of it backfiring on the prime minister should be obvious but he seems oblivious. "
"The latest farce suggests a fundamentally unserious approach to the nation’s affairs."
The chumocracy leading to the kleptocracy is alive and well with lots of close bonds highlighted, but the link of both live in Islington is exceedingly tenuous, most people in Islington dont know each other!
Cummings, Allegra and - before his divorce - Boris - live within a circle with approx 500m radius.
I think if you explore the private school/Oxbridge/wealth nexus you will probably find it more fruitful. These people all know each other, marry each other, do business with each other. Brexit has always been about the old establishment reasserting themselves, big fish in their small pond.
Karl Rove, of course, was George W Bush's guru and best known for exploiting "truthiness" or claims that are false or unverifiable but sound like they are true.
Truthiness, and explicitly partisan news broadcasters like Fox, led to each side having not just its own opinions but its own facts, to an explosion of political lies, and to Pizzagate, QAnon and the like.
"The case against Cain was obvious. He has been in charge of the government’s communications, which are a shambles. In the past week alone, No 10 managed to blunder on the tweet congratulating Joe Biden on his presidential victory. The image had been crudely put together, with traces of an earlier message congratulating Donald Trump on winning a second term still visible."
"Minister after minister has a story to tell about being monstered by the No 10 spin operation. Johnson feigns ignorance or treats it as a joke. The risk of it backfiring on the prime minister should be obvious but he seems oblivious. "
"The latest farce suggests a fundamentally unserious approach to the nation’s affairs."
A lack of seriousness has always been Johnson's glaring flaw. He is fundamentally inadequate to the job.
So we can expect the full humiliation before the week-end is over.
If he wants to drag this out as long as possible the last realistic date is 14 December.
After that it will just get even more humiliating.
I don't think so. I can see a full Ceausescu type ending for him. His stupidest- son Don Junior-will organise a victory rally for him and the crowd will slowly start booing.........
Perhaps they could have gone down the route of saying they had given x million to councils and hoped councils would allocate it to school meals, rather than suggesting supermarket vouchers were being used in crack dens and brothels. Might be slightly less humiliating for them.
Anybody who leapt to the defence of the government over this Rashford stuff really only has themselves to blame. Fashionable though it is to blame Johnson for everything, a U-turn wasn't really a big surprise. Didn't Conservative MPs used to be more astute than this?
The point I am making is there was a dignified message that could have been given in support of the govt policy (damaging but not too much) and an undignified message (very damaging and humiliating). The ones who chose the undignified messaging should be blaming themselves first and foremost.
The chumocracy leading to the kleptocracy is alive and well with lots of close bonds highlighted, but the link of both live in Islington is exceedingly tenuous, most people in Islington dont know each other!
Get over it. Advisors have never been elected, if they were they'd be MPs and they'd have their own advisors who would be unelected and repeat ad nauseum.
Every PM throughout all of history (and every monarch before then) has had unelected advisors.
I think thats fair - but there is also a difference, the PM is an empty vassal who will do whatever he believes is popular, and he has appointed a cabinet of yes men and women. The role of advisors is therefore much bigger than normal.
You have done well to identify Sunak and Patel as potential next leaders, they are the two who have stood up to no 10 the most.
Priti Patel would be well-advised to borrow Professor Van Tam's platform for future briefings so she is not dwarfed by the lectern. Priti is not very tall and heightism is one of the few remaining allowed prejudices.
People have advisers. I know the worry is Boris relies too heavily on his, but even the most decisive figure would have advisers, so that's a little overblown as a concern. That he is dependent on them is a separate issue to his having non elected advisers.
It's what happens when the government is run by journalists and PR people. They thrive on this kind of soap opera crap and are too trivial and indisciplined to have a real understanding of the substantive issues.
Indeed. Boris - journalist/game show host Gove - journalist Cain - PR Allegra - PR Carrie - PR Eddie Lister - Lobbyist Dom - Professional psycho and self-identifying savant.
Cummings is a PR guy too. The idea that he is some kind of intellectual is hilarious. He's like a stupid person's idea of what a genius looks like.
OGH, the states only certify they own state's vote, not the total count. If the betting firms are being absolute sticklers, they won't settle this bet until January 6th when the Joint Session of Congress formally counts the EC votes submitted by the states, and certifies that count, as Congress has the ability to throw out EC votes.
Do not Betfair's terms referent to 'projected' EVs ?
That is why no-one is really sure why Betfair has not already settled most of these markets, like the traditional bookmakers have.
Actions speak louder than words, that the market is still open and matching millions more per day gives the biggest clue that the market is not being settled on uncertified media projections.
But what can "projected" mean, if not a media projection? Once a result is certified, it's not projected any more, is it?
It's what happens when the government is run by journalists and PR people. They thrive on this kind of soap opera crap and are too trivial and indisciplined to have a real understanding of the substantive issues.
One of the enduring mysteries of the Cummings plan is that he rightly slated the Cameron government for PR man fluff and a lack of substance.
We are all used to the Daily Mail trying to convince us that someone on £100k is on an average income. Sky News have gone one better. They have an article on capital gains tax with the headline:
'Chancellor considers middle class tax raid to pay for pandemic debt mountain'
Within the article is the sentence:
'Only 0.5% of the population paid capital gains tax in 2017-18.'
Yep. That's the squeezed middle alright.
One of the points of the suggested changes is to increase that 0.5%. Currently £12k per annum is exempt from the tax; get rid of that, and a lot more will pay it.
The chumocracy leading to the kleptocracy is alive and well with lots of close bonds highlighted, but the link of both live in Islington is exceedingly tenuous, most people in Islington dont know each other!
Cummings, Allegra and - before his divorce - Boris - live within a circle with approx 500m radius.
I think if you explore the private school/Oxbridge/wealth nexus you will probably find it more fruitful. These people all know each other, marry each other, do business with each other. Brexit has always been about the old establishment reasserting themselves, big fish in their small pond.
Not sure I’d assign Brexit as the impulse for this.
It seems to be something inherent to the modern-day Tory Party, which as Perry Anderson points out in his latest magisterial essay on “Ukania” in the NLR, is reverting to rule by Old Etonians after a long period roughing it with grammar school types.
So we can expect the full humiliation before the week-end is over.
If he wants to drag this out as long as possible the last realistic date is 14 December.
After that it will just get even more humiliating.
Please let it go on until inauguration day - and beyond if possible.
Yes, I can see the idea of an "Office of the 45th President" or something having appeal to the Trumpers. Based out of one of his Golf resorts he can have his "Cabinet" around him and "govern" by Tweet and broadcasts on the new Trump TV service. Funded by Russia of course.
Its a marvellous idea. Then they can arrest him live on YouTube.
It's what happens when the government is run by journalists and PR people. They thrive on this kind of soap opera crap and are too trivial and indisciplined to have a real understanding of the substantive issues.
Indeed. Boris - journalist/game show host Gove - journalist Cain - PR Allegra - PR Carrie - PR Eddie Lister - Lobbyist Dom - Professional psycho and self-identifying savant.
Some of those were working for him in comms and PR roles why wouldn't they be journalists and PR people?
I think the general point is sound but I cannot work up outrage that his director of comms worked in pr.
So we can expect the full humiliation before the week-end is over.
If he wants to drag this out as long as possible the last realistic date is 14 December.
After that it will just get even more humiliating.
I don't think so. I can see a full Ceausescu type ending for him. His stupidest- son Don Junior-will organise a victory rally for him and the crowd will slowly start booing.........
Someone said, I think it was here, that he could go to Mar-a-lago for Christmas and simply never return.
The chumocracy leading to the kleptocracy is alive and well with lots of close bonds highlighted, but the link of both live in Islington is exceedingly tenuous, most people in Islington dont know each other!
Cummings, Allegra and - before his divorce - Boris - live within a circle with approx 500m radius.
So did I. The overwhelming majority of our neighbours voted Labour. And few socialise with our neighbours much. By the standards of pleasant parts of London close to Z1 and decent transport, core Georgian Islington's a relatively cheap place to bring a family up.
It's what happens when the government is run by journalists and PR people. They thrive on this kind of soap opera crap and are too trivial and indisciplined to have a real understanding of the substantive issues.
Indeed. Boris - journalist/game show host Gove - journalist Cain - PR Allegra - PR Carrie - PR Eddie Lister - Lobbyist Dom - Professional psycho and self-identifying savant.
Cummings is a PR guy too. The idea that he is some kind of intellectual is hilarious. He's like a stupid person's idea of what a genius looks like.
Cumming's blog is quite odd ; it shows traces of insight, scattergun and in various directions, but then can't drive off wild tangents. It's like a sort of caffeine-fuelled, undergraduate essay crisis.
The chumocracy leading to the kleptocracy is alive and well with lots of close bonds highlighted, but the link of both live in Islington is exceedingly tenuous, most people in Islington dont know each other!
Cummings, Allegra and - before his divorce - Boris - live within a circle with approx 500m radius.
So did I. The overwhelming majority of our neighbours voted Labour. And few socialise with our neighbours much. By the standards of pleasant parts of London close to Z1 and decent transport, core Georgian Islington's a relatively cheap place to bring a family up.
Me too! My daughter and Cummings’s son were briefly at nursery together (but different years).
It's what happens when the government is run by journalists and PR people. They thrive on this kind of soap opera crap and are too trivial and indisciplined to have a real understanding of the substantive issues.
One of the enduring mysteries of the Cummings plan is that he rightly slated the Cameron government for PR man fluff and a lack of substance.
Get over it. Advisors have never been elected, if they were they'd be MPs and they'd have their own advisors who would be unelected and repeat ad nauseum.
Every PM throughout all of history (and every monarch before then) has had unelected advisors.
I think thats fair - but there is also a difference, the PM is an empty vassal who will do whatever he believes is popular, and he has appointed a cabinet of yes men and women. The role of advisors is therefore much bigger than normal.
You have done well to identify Sunak and Patel as potential next leaders, they are the two who have stood up to no 10 the most.
Priti Patel would be well-advised to borrow Professor Van Tam's platform for future briefings so she is not dwarfed by the lectern. Priti is not very tall and heightism is one of the few remaining allowed prejudices.
The last US president to be shorter than todays average US adult male was William McKinley elected in 1900, who would still have been average height at the time.
A significant part of the gender pay gap can also be explained by height.
It is all quite curious, and does show the collective human hive mind has weird and illogical preferences, these leaders are not physically taking us into battles any more.
It's what happens when the government is run by journalists and PR people. They thrive on this kind of soap opera crap and are too trivial and indisciplined to have a real understanding of the substantive issues.
Indeed. Boris - journalist/game show host Gove - journalist Cain - PR Allegra - PR Carrie - PR Eddie Lister - Lobbyist Dom - Professional psycho and self-identifying savant.
Some of those were working for him in comms and PR roles why wouldn't they be journalists and PR people?
I think the general point is sound but I cannot work up outrage that his director of comms worked in pr.
The point, which I think you get, is that this mob are running the whole show.
It is ironic that “comms” is one of the areas where the govt perform the very worst.
So we can expect the full humiliation before the week-end is over.
If he wants to drag this out as long as possible the last realistic date is 14 December.
After that it will just get even more humiliating.
I don't think so. I can see a full Ceausescu type ending for him. His stupidest- son Don Junior-will organise a victory rally for him and the crowd will slowly start booing.........
Someone said, I think it was here, that he could go to Mar-a-lago for Christmas and simply never return.
But at some point, the Feds (or, more likely the peeps with the extradition warrant to New York) are going to turn up and make him do the perp walk.
Get over it. Advisors have never been elected, if they were they'd be MPs and they'd have their own advisors who would be unelected and repeat ad nauseum.
Every PM throughout all of history (and every monarch before then) has had unelected advisors.
I think thats fair - but there is also a difference, the PM is an empty vassal who will do whatever he believes is popular, and he has appointed a cabinet of yes men and women. The role of advisors is therefore much bigger than normal.
You have done well to identify Sunak and Patel as potential next leaders, they are the two who have stood up to no 10 the most.
Priti Patel would be well-advised to borrow Professor Van Tam's platform for future briefings so she is not dwarfed by the lectern. Priti is not very tall and heightism is one of the few remaining allowed prejudices.
The last US president to be shorter than todays average US adult male was William McKinley elected in 1900, who would still have been average height at the time.
A significant part of the gender pay gap can also be explained by height.
It is all quite curious, and does show the collective human hive mind has weird and illogical preferences, these leaders are not physically taking us into battles any more.
Even back in times when leaders often did take people into battle, those who didn't or did not very well could still rise to be leaders. I mean, was Augustus as good a battle leader as Ceasar?
It's what happens when the government is run by journalists and PR people. They thrive on this kind of soap opera crap and are too trivial and indisciplined to have a real understanding of the substantive issues.
Indeed. Boris - journalist/game show host Gove - journalist Cain - PR Allegra - PR Carrie - PR Eddie Lister - Lobbyist Dom - Professional psycho and self-identifying savant.
Some of those were working for him in comms and PR roles why wouldn't they be journalists and PR people?
I think the general point is sound but I cannot work up outrage that his director of comms worked in pr.
The point, which I think you get, is that this mob are running the whole show.
It is ironic that “comms” is one of the areas where the govt perform the very worst.
The chumocracy leading to the kleptocracy is alive and well with lots of close bonds highlighted, but the link of both live in Islington is exceedingly tenuous, most people in Islington dont know each other!
Cummings, Allegra and - before his divorce - Boris - live within a circle with approx 500m radius.
I think if you explore the private school/Oxbridge/wealth nexus you will probably find it more fruitful. These people all know each other, marry each other, do business with each other. Brexit has always been about the old establishment reasserting themselves, big fish in their small pond.
Not sure I’d assign Brexit as the impulse for this.
It seems to be something inherent to the modern-day Tory Party, which as Perry Anderson points out in his latest magisterial essay on “Ukania” in the NLR, is reverting to rule by Old Etonians after a long period roughing it with grammar school types.
Brexit isn't the impulse, but it is part of the reversion. Grammar school Tories like Heath took us into the EU, Thatcher understood the EU's usefulness even if she distrusted the Germans, and successfully moulded it in a meritocratic free market direction via the Single Market. A continental European colleague explains Brexit as happening when the English upper class realised they'd been priced out of the Chelsea housing market, which seems plausible to me.
OGH, the states only certify they own state's vote, not the total count. If the betting firms are being absolute sticklers, they won't settle this bet until January 6th when the Joint Session of Congress formally counts the EC votes submitted by the states, and certifies that count, as Congress has the ability to throw out EC votes.
Do not Betfair's terms referent to 'projected' EVs ?
That is why no-one is really sure why Betfair has not already settled most of these markets, like the traditional bookmakers have.
Actions speak louder than words, that the market is still open and matching millions more per day gives the biggest clue that the market is not being settled on uncertified media projections.
But what can "projected" mean, if not a media projection? Once a result is certified, it's not projected any more, is it?
There is a gap between certification and the electoral college voting. So after certification there will still be projected EC votes.
Get over it. Advisors have never been elected, if they were they'd be MPs and they'd have their own advisors who would be unelected and repeat ad nauseum.
Every PM throughout all of history (and every monarch before then) has had unelected advisors.
I think thats fair - but there is also a difference, the PM is an empty vassal who will do whatever he believes is popular, and he has appointed a cabinet of yes men and women. The role of advisors is therefore much bigger than normal.
You have done well to identify Sunak and Patel as potential next leaders, they are the two who have stood up to no 10 the most.
Priti Patel would be well-advised to borrow Professor Van Tam's platform for future briefings so she is not dwarfed by the lectern. Priti is not very tall and heightism is one of the few remaining allowed prejudices.
The last US president to be shorter than todays average US adult male was William McKinley elected in 1900, who would still have been average height at the time.
A significant part of the gender pay gap can also be explained by height.
It is all quite curious, and does show the collective human hive mind has weird and illogical preferences, these leaders are not physically taking us into battles any more.
Even back in times when leaders often did take people into battle, those who didn't or did not very well could still rise to be leaders. I mean, was Augustus as good a battle leader as Ceasar?
Before my time that one. I could give a view on Tyson Lewis?
Mr. Boy, that seems like a bizarre argument to me.
Still, easier to blame a tiny minority of aristocrats who apparently decide how political matters go than engage with the legitimate concerns of the electorate. After all, the latter might imply there are arguments against, as well as for, the EU...
Perhaps they could have gone down the route of saying they had given x million to councils and hoped councils would allocate it to school meals, rather than suggesting supermarket vouchers were being used in crack dens and brothels. Might be slightly less humiliating for them.
That would require an MP to think before opening his mouth. And most Tory MPs aren't picked for their brains as there is a risk they may go off the rails if they thought or had opinions.
Remember - Boris removed anyone with opinions and a backbone in September last year.
We are all used to the Daily Mail trying to convince us that someone on £100k is on an average income. Sky News have gone one better. They have an article on capital gains tax with the headline:
'Chancellor considers middle class tax raid to pay for pandemic debt mountain'
Within the article is the sentence:
'Only 0.5% of the population paid capital gains tax in 2017-18.'
Yep. That's the squeezed middle alright.
One of the points of the suggested changes is to increase that 0.5%. Currently £12k per annum is exempt from the tax; get rid of that, and a lot more will pay it.
But otherwise, I agree with your point.
I don't think most people don't pay CGT because of the £12k.
They don't pay CGT because they do not own any assets that will come close to appreciating that much, except their main home.
I am not sure what % of people hold any non-cash investments, but ISAs must put pay to any suggestion that a lot of people would pay CGT on them.
We are all used to the Daily Mail trying to convince us that someone on £100k is on an average income. Sky News have gone one better. They have an article on capital gains tax with the headline:
'Chancellor considers middle class tax raid to pay for pandemic debt mountain'
Within the article is the sentence:
'Only 0.5% of the population paid capital gains tax in 2017-18.'
Yep. That's the squeezed middle alright.
One of the points of the suggested changes is to increase that 0.5%. Currently £12k per annum is exempt from the tax; get rid of that, and a lot more will pay it.
But otherwise, I agree with your point.
The other point is that for people who own multiple homes, they may only come up in the stats one year or very occasionally, but it could be a huge amount of tax.
The more reflective stat would be the proportion who have paid CGT over a decade which would be a fair bit higher.
Also the middle class is not the squeezed middle.
Note - I am in favour of the changes proposed, especially on those with multiple homes.
If I understand correctly, Britain’s Q3 ‘19 to Q3 ‘20 performance is the worst in Europe.
Sick man at the helm; sick man of Europe once more.
UK did very badly with first wave, but seeing what is happening now in France and Italy, compared to the stabilisation in infection rates in the UK, and it begins to look like the UK has done a lot better second time around.
By the end of 2021 Q1 we would be able to see the benefit if that proves to be the case.
Mr. Boy, that seems like a bizarre argument to me.
Still, easier to blame a tiny minority of aristocrats who apparently decide how political matters go than engage with the legitimate concerns of the electorate. After all, the latter might imply there are arguments against, as well as for, the EU...
You are right, but Brexit would not have happened if a core section of the elite hadn't decided it was in their interests. Or are you claiming it was all an uprising of the dispossessed?
If I understand correctly, Britain’s Q3 ‘19 to Q3 ‘20 performance is the worst in Europe.
Sick man at the helm; sick man of Europe once more.
UK did very badly with first wave, but seeing what is happening now in France and Italy, compared to the stabilisation in infection rates in the UK, and it begins to look like the UK has done a lot better second time around.
By the end of 2021 Q1 we would be able to see the benefit if that proves to be the case.
Luckily nothing else is happening in Q1 2021 that could damage our growth prospects.
The chumocracy leading to the kleptocracy is alive and well with lots of close bonds highlighted, but the link of both live in Islington is exceedingly tenuous, most people in Islington dont know each other!
Cummings, Allegra and - before his divorce - Boris - live within a circle with approx 500m radius.
I think if you explore the private school/Oxbridge/wealth nexus you will probably find it more fruitful. These people all know each other, marry each other, do business with each other. Brexit has always been about the old establishment reasserting themselves, big fish in their small pond.
Not sure I’d assign Brexit as the impulse for this.
It seems to be something inherent to the modern-day Tory Party, which as Perry Anderson points out in his latest magisterial essay on “Ukania” in the NLR, is reverting to rule by Old Etonians after a long period roughing it with grammar school types.
Brexit isn't the impulse, but it is part of the reversion. Grammar school Tories like Heath took us into the EU, Thatcher understood the EU's usefulness even if she distrusted the Germans, and successfully moulded it in a meritocratic free market direction via the Single Market. A continental European colleague explains Brexit as happening when the English upper class realised they'd been priced out of the Chelsea housing market, which seems plausible to me.
Except it doesn't explain why the public who are not upper class voted for it.
We are all used to the Daily Mail trying to convince us that someone on £100k is on an average income. Sky News have gone one better. They have an article on capital gains tax with the headline:
'Chancellor considers middle class tax raid to pay for pandemic debt mountain'
Within the article is the sentence:
'Only 0.5% of the population paid capital gains tax in 2017-18.'
Yep. That's the squeezed middle alright.
One of the points of the suggested changes is to increase that 0.5%. Currently £12k per annum is exempt from the tax; get rid of that, and a lot more will pay it.
But otherwise, I agree with your point.
I don't think most people don't pay CGT because of the £12k.
They don't pay CGT because they do not own any assets that will come close to appreciating that much, except their main home.
I am not sure what % of people hold any non-cash investments, but ISAs must put pay to any suggestion that a lot of people would pay CGT on them.
The only high cash value item most people own, at least in part, is a house. And generally speaking, the one in which they live. After, that a car which in most cases depreciates during it's useful life.
The chumocracy leading to the kleptocracy is alive and well with lots of close bonds highlighted, but the link of both live in Islington is exceedingly tenuous, most people in Islington dont know each other!
Cummings, Allegra and - before his divorce - Boris - live within a circle with approx 500m radius.
So did I. The overwhelming majority of our neighbours voted Labour. And few socialise with our neighbours much. By the standards of pleasant parts of London close to Z1 and decent transport, core Georgian Islington's a relatively cheap place to bring a family up.
True. I don't think geography tells us much. But the frequency that the spouses and friends of senior Tories turn up in highly-paid posts seems, to put it politely, a surprising reflection on the selection process. If they all turn out to be brilliant, that doesn't matter too much, but...
I don't think voters are paying much attention to politics at the moment - they are too worried about the pandemic and the challenges of everyday life. That's why the Tory rating is largely impervious to scandals, and also why the Corbyn row hasn't affected Labour much. Nonetheless, people like to see a sense of purpose and direction, especially during a national crisis, and preoccupation with the possession of deckchairs at this precise moment does not look great.
Get over it. Advisors have never been elected, if they were they'd be MPs and they'd have their own advisors who would be unelected and repeat ad nauseum.
Every PM throughout all of history (and every monarch before then) has had unelected advisors.
I think thats fair - but there is also a difference, the PM is an empty vassal who will do whatever he believes is popular, and he has appointed a cabinet of yes men and women. The role of advisors is therefore much bigger than normal.
You have done well to identify Sunak and Patel as potential next leaders, they are the two who have stood up to no 10 the most.
Priti Patel would be well-advised to borrow Professor Van Tam's platform for future briefings so she is not dwarfed by the lectern. Priti is not very tall and heightism is one of the few remaining allowed prejudices.
The Female Enoch has a natural dignity and gravitas which transcends her shortarsedness.
The chumocracy leading to the kleptocracy is alive and well with lots of close bonds highlighted, but the link of both live in Islington is exceedingly tenuous, most people in Islington dont know each other!
Cummings, Allegra and - before his divorce - Boris - live within a circle with approx 500m radius.
So did I. The overwhelming majority of our neighbours voted Labour. And few socialise with our neighbours much. By the standards of pleasant parts of London close to Z1 and decent transport, core Georgian Islington's a relatively cheap place to bring a family up.
True. I don't think geography tells us much. But the frequency that the spouses and friends of senior Tories turn up in highly-paid posts seems, to put it politely, a surprising reflection on the selection process. If they all turn out to be brilliant, that doesn't matter too much, but...
I don't think voters are paying much attention to politics at the moment - they are too worried about the pandemic and the challenges of everyday life. That's why the Tory rating is largely impervious to scandals, and also why the Corbyn row hasn't affected Labour much. Nonetheless, people like to see a sense of purpose and direction, especially during a national crisis, and preoccupation with the possession of deckchairs at this precise moment does not look great.
Preoccupation with the monopoly porvision of deckchairs on the pier is a better analogy, perhaps. Was this sort of thing not fought over at places such at Brighton in the old days?
OGH, the states only certify they own state's vote, not the total count. If the betting firms are being absolute sticklers, they won't settle this bet until January 6th when the Joint Session of Congress formally counts the EC votes submitted by the states, and certifies that count, as Congress has the ability to throw out EC votes.
Do not Betfair's terms referent to 'projected' EVs ?
That is why no-one is really sure why Betfair has not already settled most of these markets, like the traditional bookmakers have.
Actions speak louder than words, that the market is still open and matching millions more per day gives the biggest clue that the market is not being settled on uncertified media projections.
But what can "projected" mean, if not a media projection? Once a result is certified, it's not projected any more, is it?
There is a gap between certification and the electoral college voting. So after certification there will still be projected EC votes.
But if that's what they meant why not say "certified" and remove the ambiguity?
That's a bonkers suggestion that misses the whole point of the restrictions.
We don't have restrictions in order to protect workers. We have restrictions in order to protect the elderly. If you want a swift return to normal then vaccinate the elderly and the workers can return to work because the elderly have been protected by vaccine instead of restrictions. 🤦🏻♂️
So we can expect the full humiliation before the week-end is over.
If he wants to drag this out as long as possible the last realistic date is 14 December.
After that it will just get even more humiliating.
I don't think so. I can see a full Ceausescu type ending for him. His stupidest- son Don Junior-will organise a victory rally for him and the crowd will slowly start booing.........
Someone said, I think it was here, that he could go to Mar-a-lago for Christmas and simply never return.
But at some point, the Feds (or, more likely the peeps with the extradition warrant to New York) are going to turn up and make him do the perp walk.
I agree and I look forward to it, for no other reason than to put off a future wanabee dictator.
The chumocracy leading to the kleptocracy is alive and well with lots of close bonds highlighted, but the link of both live in Islington is exceedingly tenuous, most people in Islington dont know each other!
Cummings, Allegra and - before his divorce - Boris - live within a circle with approx 500m radius.
I think if you explore the private school/Oxbridge/wealth nexus you will probably find it more fruitful. These people all know each other, marry each other, do business with each other. Brexit has always been about the old establishment reasserting themselves, big fish in their small pond.
Not sure I’d assign Brexit as the impulse for this.
It seems to be something inherent to the modern-day Tory Party, which as Perry Anderson points out in his latest magisterial essay on “Ukania” in the NLR, is reverting to rule by Old Etonians after a long period roughing it with grammar school types.
Brexit isn't the impulse, but it is part of the reversion. Grammar school Tories like Heath took us into the EU, Thatcher understood the EU's usefulness even if she distrusted the Germans, and successfully moulded it in a meritocratic free market direction via the Single Market. A continental European colleague explains Brexit as happening when the English upper class realised they'd been priced out of the Chelsea housing market, which seems plausible to me.
Except it doesn't explain why the public who are not upper class voted for it.
Because they blamed the EU for immigration and thought there would be more money for the NHS.
The chumocracy leading to the kleptocracy is alive and well with lots of close bonds highlighted, but the link of both live in Islington is exceedingly tenuous, most people in Islington dont know each other!
Cummings, Allegra and - before his divorce - Boris - live within a circle with approx 500m radius.
I think if you explore the private school/Oxbridge/wealth nexus you will probably find it more fruitful. These people all know each other, marry each other, do business with each other. Brexit has always been about the old establishment reasserting themselves, big fish in their small pond.
Not sure I’d assign Brexit as the impulse for this.
It seems to be something inherent to the modern-day Tory Party, which as Perry Anderson points out in his latest magisterial essay on “Ukania” in the NLR, is reverting to rule by Old Etonians after a long period roughing it with grammar school types.
Brexit isn't the impulse, but it is part of the reversion. Grammar school Tories like Heath took us into the EU, Thatcher understood the EU's usefulness even if she distrusted the Germans, and successfully moulded it in a meritocratic free market direction via the Single Market. A continental European colleague explains Brexit as happening when the English upper class realised they'd been priced out of the Chelsea housing market, which seems plausible to me.
Except it doesn't explain why the public who are not upper class voted for it.
Because they blamed the EU for immigration and thought there would be more money for the NHS.
Right, so pinning it on the upper classes is dumb.
OGH, the states only certify they own state's vote, not the total count. If the betting firms are being absolute sticklers, they won't settle this bet until January 6th when the Joint Session of Congress formally counts the EC votes submitted by the states, and certifies that count, as Congress has the ability to throw out EC votes.
Do not Betfair's terms referent to 'projected' EVs ?
That is why no-one is really sure why Betfair has not already settled most of these markets, like the traditional bookmakers have.
Actions speak louder than words, that the market is still open and matching millions more per day gives the biggest clue that the market is not being settled on uncertified media projections.
But what can "projected" mean, if not a media projection? Once a result is certified, it's not projected any more, is it?
There is a gap between certification and the electoral college voting. So after certification there will still be projected EC votes.
But if that's what they meant why not say "certified" and remove the ambiguity?
Because normally by now the loser will have conceded so there'd be no reason not to pay out.
OGH, the states only certify they own state's vote, not the total count. If the betting firms are being absolute sticklers, they won't settle this bet until January 6th when the Joint Session of Congress formally counts the EC votes submitted by the states, and certifies that count, as Congress has the ability to throw out EC votes.
Do not Betfair's terms referent to 'projected' EVs ?
That is why no-one is really sure why Betfair has not already settled most of these markets, like the traditional bookmakers have.
Actions speak louder than words, that the market is still open and matching millions more per day gives the biggest clue that the market is not being settled on uncertified media projections.
But what can "projected" mean, if not a media projection? Once a result is certified, it's not projected any more, is it?
There is a gap between certification and the electoral college voting. So after certification there will still be projected EC votes.
But if that's what they meant why not say "certified" and remove the ambiguity?
To give them the option of settling earlier if possible.
If I understand correctly, Britain’s Q3 ‘19 to Q3 ‘20 performance is the worst in Europe.
Sick man at the helm; sick man of Europe once more.
UK did very badly with first wave, but seeing what is happening now in France and Italy, compared to the stabilisation in infection rates in the UK, and it begins to look like the UK has done a lot better second time around.
By the end of 2021 Q1 we would be able to see the benefit if that proves to be the case.
Luckily nothing else is happening in Q1 2021 that could damage our growth prospects.
Indeed. Quite the contrary, the brakes will be removed from the UK economy in Q1 2021.
The raw politics of what happened in Downing Street last night is that the Prime Minister wanted Lee Cain to be his chief of staff and was overruled. That tells you a hell of a lot about Boris Johnson and his leadership.
The organ grinder yanking the monkey's chain, you mean?
If I understand correctly, Britain’s Q3 ‘19 to Q3 ‘20 performance is the worst in Europe.
Sick man at the helm; sick man of Europe once more.
UK did very badly with first wave, but seeing what is happening now in France and Italy, compared to the stabilisation in infection rates in the UK, and it begins to look like the UK has done a lot better second time around.
By the end of 2021 Q1 we would be able to see the benefit if that proves to be the case.
Luckily nothing else is happening in Q1 2021 that could damage our growth prospects.
Quite the contrary, the brakes will be removed from the UK economy in Q1 2021.
Tell that to the Bank of England, who downgraded their growth forecasts for Q1 based on surveys showing firms are not prepared for Brexit. Of course I am sure you know better.
If I understand correctly, Britain’s Q3 ‘19 to Q3 ‘20 performance is the worst in Europe.
Sick man at the helm; sick man of Europe once more.
UK did very badly with first wave, but seeing what is happening now in France and Italy, compared to the stabilisation in infection rates in the UK, and it begins to look like the UK has done a lot better second time around.
By the end of 2021 Q1 we would be able to see the benefit if that proves to be the case.
Luckily nothing else is happening in Q1 2021 that could damage our growth prospects.
Indeed. Quite the contrary, the brakes will be removed from the UK economy in Q1 2021.
Because of the vaccine! Exiting transition won't put the brakes on or take them off as we're mysteriously going to continue trading as we are now...
We are all used to the Daily Mail trying to convince us that someone on £100k is on an average income. Sky News have gone one better. They have an article on capital gains tax with the headline:
'Chancellor considers middle class tax raid to pay for pandemic debt mountain'
Within the article is the sentence:
'Only 0.5% of the population paid capital gains tax in 2017-18.'
Yep. That's the squeezed middle alright.
One of the points of the suggested changes is to increase that 0.5%. Currently £12k per annum is exempt from the tax; get rid of that, and a lot more will pay it.
But otherwise, I agree with your point.
If you get rid of the £12K allowance it would be an admin nightmare. Every single share transaction would result in a capital gains gain or loss to be recorded and paid. You could argue it could be much lower but again that would cause a lot more transactions as people try and get below the new limit. I assume it is set at £12K (which is quite high) because people with modest investments don't transact very often so you are spreading a modest gain over decades.
OGH, the states only certify they own state's vote, not the total count. If the betting firms are being absolute sticklers, they won't settle this bet until January 6th when the Joint Session of Congress formally counts the EC votes submitted by the states, and certifies that count, as Congress has the ability to throw out EC votes.
Do not Betfair's terms referent to 'projected' EVs ?
That is why no-one is really sure why Betfair has not already settled most of these markets, like the traditional bookmakers have.
Actions speak louder than words, that the market is still open and matching millions more per day gives the biggest clue that the market is not being settled on uncertified media projections.
But what can "projected" mean, if not a media projection? Once a result is certified, it's not projected any more, is it?
There is a gap between certification and the electoral college voting. So after certification there will still be projected EC votes.
But if that's what they meant why not say "certified" and remove the ambiguity?
The wording is terrible and unhelpful, especially given the way this year has played out, normally it wouldnt be an issue.
They had a good justification to pay out when the networks projected Biden.
Once they didnt, they can't leave the market open, take tens of millions of pounds of new bets backing Trump and say we are paying out on the networks projecting Biden before you placed your bet. It would be borderline if not actual fraud.
The chumocracy leading to the kleptocracy is alive and well with lots of close bonds highlighted, but the link of both live in Islington is exceedingly tenuous, most people in Islington dont know each other!
Cummings, Allegra and - before his divorce - Boris - live within a circle with approx 500m radius.
I think if you explore the private school/Oxbridge/wealth nexus you will probably find it more fruitful. These people all know each other, marry each other, do business with each other. Brexit has always been about the old establishment reasserting themselves, big fish in their small pond.
Not sure I’d assign Brexit as the impulse for this.
It seems to be something inherent to the modern-day Tory Party, which as Perry Anderson points out in his latest magisterial essay on “Ukania” in the NLR, is reverting to rule by Old Etonians after a long period roughing it with grammar school types.
Brexit isn't the impulse, but it is part of the reversion. Grammar school Tories like Heath took us into the EU, Thatcher understood the EU's usefulness even if she distrusted the Germans, and successfully moulded it in a meritocratic free market direction via the Single Market. A continental European colleague explains Brexit as happening when the English upper class realised they'd been priced out of the Chelsea housing market, which seems plausible to me.
Except it doesn't explain why the public who are not upper class voted for it.
Because they blamed the EU for immigration and thought there would be more money for the NHS.
Right, so pinning it on the upper classes is dumb.
Not really. Imagining that Brexit is some kind of pure expression of the people's will and ignoring the elite interests that bankrolled it and organised it is dumb.
Mr. Boy, considering that big business, the political establishment, and broadcast media are all pro-EU, it seems to somewhat stretch credibility to suggest the drive to leave it is primarily led by elites.
The chumocracy leading to the kleptocracy is alive and well with lots of close bonds highlighted, but the link of both live in Islington is exceedingly tenuous, most people in Islington dont know each other!
Cummings, Allegra and - before his divorce - Boris - live within a circle with approx 500m radius.
I think if you explore the private school/Oxbridge/wealth nexus you will probably find it more fruitful. These people all know each other, marry each other, do business with each other. Brexit has always been about the old establishment reasserting themselves, big fish in their small pond.
Not sure I’d assign Brexit as the impulse for this.
It seems to be something inherent to the modern-day Tory Party, which as Perry Anderson points out in his latest magisterial essay on “Ukania” in the NLR, is reverting to rule by Old Etonians after a long period roughing it with grammar school types.
Brexit isn't the impulse, but it is part of the reversion. Grammar school Tories like Heath took us into the EU, Thatcher understood the EU's usefulness even if she distrusted the Germans, and successfully moulded it in a meritocratic free market direction via the Single Market. A continental European colleague explains Brexit as happening when the English upper class realised they'd been priced out of the Chelsea housing market, which seems plausible to me.
Mrs Thatcher never understood the EU's usefulness as the EU was only established after she left office. It was still the EEC while she was in power. She turned against it when the scale of its power grabs beyond the Single Market became clear. Read her Bruges speech.
And do you really think 17.4 million votes are explained by the Chelsea housing market? That's as ridiculous as the average QAnon conspiracy theory. And supported by about as much evidence.
Mr. Boy, that seems like a bizarre argument to me.
Still, easier to blame a tiny minority of aristocrats who apparently decide how political matters go than engage with the legitimate concerns of the electorate. After all, the latter might imply there are arguments against, as well as for, the EU...
I wish people would actually say what they mean when they say "legitimate concerns". It's such a dodgy phrase.
We are all used to the Daily Mail trying to convince us that someone on £100k is on an average income. Sky News have gone one better. They have an article on capital gains tax with the headline:
'Chancellor considers middle class tax raid to pay for pandemic debt mountain'
Within the article is the sentence:
'Only 0.5% of the population paid capital gains tax in 2017-18.'
Yep. That's the squeezed middle alright.
One of the points of the suggested changes is to increase that 0.5%. Currently £12k per annum is exempt from the tax; get rid of that, and a lot more will pay it.
But otherwise, I agree with your point.
If you get rid of the £12K allowance it would be an admin nightmare. Every single share transaction would result in a capital gains gain or loss to be recorded and paid. You could argue it could be much lower but again that would cause a lot more transactions as people try and get below the new limit. I assume it is set at £12K (which is quite high) because people with modest investments don't transact very often so you are spreading a modest gain over decades.
It's not spread over years any more, is it? All the gain is taxed in the one tax year now. Can't even carry over the previous year's allowance. You have to split up your sales between years - which may not be possible or desirable.
The chumocracy leading to the kleptocracy is alive and well with lots of close bonds highlighted, but the link of both live in Islington is exceedingly tenuous, most people in Islington dont know each other!
Cummings, Allegra and - before his divorce - Boris - live within a circle with approx 500m radius.
I think if you explore the private school/Oxbridge/wealth nexus you will probably find it more fruitful. These people all know each other, marry each other, do business with each other. Brexit has always been about the old establishment reasserting themselves, big fish in their small pond.
Not sure I’d assign Brexit as the impulse for this.
It seems to be something inherent to the modern-day Tory Party, which as Perry Anderson points out in his latest magisterial essay on “Ukania” in the NLR, is reverting to rule by Old Etonians after a long period roughing it with grammar school types.
Brexit isn't the impulse, but it is part of the reversion. Grammar school Tories like Heath took us into the EU, Thatcher understood the EU's usefulness even if she distrusted the Germans, and successfully moulded it in a meritocratic free market direction via the Single Market. A continental European colleague explains Brexit as happening when the English upper class realised they'd been priced out of the Chelsea housing market, which seems plausible to me.
Except it doesn't explain why the public who are not upper class voted for it.
Because they believed what they were conditioned and wanted to believe. That top bonzo Boris was telling them it would all be fine because he’s a diamond geezer.
Is it though? Or is this a massive proxy war for which level of shit deal Rasputin allows the PM to negotiate finally in the wee hours later this month?
I don't think so from the look of it, considering only one person has gone.
Looks like one ambitious individual sought a promotion, had it denied, and flounced as a result. In any other sector that would not be newsworthy.
No 10's communications have hardly set the world on fire during the pandemic. Seems best that he goes.
Time to get Steve Hilton back. He's the sort of louche man without principle that could hold Johnson's back room team together right now.
OGH, the states only certify they own state's vote, not the total count. If the betting firms are being absolute sticklers, they won't settle this bet until January 6th when the Joint Session of Congress formally counts the EC votes submitted by the states, and certifies that count, as Congress has the ability to throw out EC votes.
Do not Betfair's terms referent to 'projected' EVs ?
That is why no-one is really sure why Betfair has not already settled most of these markets, like the traditional bookmakers have.
Actions speak louder than words, that the market is still open and matching millions more per day gives the biggest clue that the market is not being settled on uncertified media projections.
But what can "projected" mean, if not a media projection? Once a result is certified, it's not projected any more, is it?
There is a gap between certification and the electoral college voting. So after certification there will still be projected EC votes.
But if that's what they meant why not say "certified" and remove the ambiguity?
I guess if they did that then in an uncontested case they couldn't settle it until it was certified, so I think it makes sense to say something a little bit vague like "projected" but keep it open if it's still contested.
If I understand correctly, Britain’s Q3 ‘19 to Q3 ‘20 performance is the worst in Europe.
Sick man at the helm; sick man of Europe once more.
UK did very badly with first wave, but seeing what is happening now in France and Italy, compared to the stabilisation in infection rates in the UK, and it begins to look like the UK has done a lot better second time around.
By the end of 2021 Q1 we would be able to see the benefit if that proves to be the case.
Luckily nothing else is happening in Q1 2021 that could damage our growth prospects.
Indeed. Quite the contrary, the brakes will be removed from the UK economy in Q1 2021.
Because of the vaccine! Exiting transition won't put the brakes on or take them off as we're mysteriously going to continue trading as we are now...
An end to uncertainty in Europe will take the brakes off. Extending transition would be utter madness as it keeps the brakes on the economy as people are uncertain what is going to happen.
Whether its a BINO trade deal (unlikely), a proper FTA (much more likely) or no deal (also unlikely) we need to just get on with it now and end this interminable process.
Mr. kamski, the rise of QMV was a major concern, speaking for myself. I also think the destiny of centralisation is going to cause a very bitter breakup a few decades down the line.
Other people seemed more concerned by the scale of immigration, though my own view is that numbers are actually less important than integration. The mantra of multi-culturalism was enacted by policies that were feeble and foolish, leading to things like authorities failing to act over child rape because of 'cultural sensitivities'. (The irony being that the Pakistani Muslim gangs common to such cases in many cities have nothing to do with the EU).
There's also the sense of being taken for a ride by migrants which is largely due to the non-contributory benefits system. Seems slightly bizarre that pro-EU types didn't advocate a system that requires contributions or long term (legal) residence, so that Britons aren't caught out.
Edited extra bit: lack of clarity was a major drawback in both campaigns. Remain seemed perversely focused on doom mongering instead of just explaining economic advantages of EU membership. If the political class had actually considered the pros and cons of the EU and formed a habit of discussing it they might've done a better job.
The Supreme Court case against Obamacare (or ACA, Affordable Care Act) has started in America. It will not end soon but early pronouncements from Chief Justice Roberts (a disappointment to Conservatives, according to VP Pence) and Trump-appointed Brett Kavanaugh are being interpreted as unfavourable to Republicans who want to see Obamacare declared unconstitutional. It matters insofar as it shows how the Supreme Court might react to the GOP's electoral challenges (most of which have foundered in lower courts).
Basically, the argument revolves around the so-called individual mandate, the requirement that everyone must have health insurance. Congress reduced the fine for this to zero dollars, and the argument before the Supreme Court is that this makes the ACA unconstitutional (tbh to my non-lawyerly eyes, the Republican lawyers appear to be making two incompatible points simultaneously but IANAL).
Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Brett Kavanaugh suggested Tuesday that it wasn't the Supreme Court's role to invalidate the entire sprawling, 900-page Affordable Care Act, even if one or more provisions are deemed unconstitutional, signaling the key parts of Obamacare will survive the latest court challenge. https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/10/politics/supreme-court-obamacare-oral-arguments/index.html
This is being interpreted as meaning the Supreme Court will also be unwilling to intervene in the Presidential election by overriding voters' wishes. Another reason Trump will be out soon.
OGH, the states only certify they own state's vote, not the total count. If the betting firms are being absolute sticklers, they won't settle this bet until January 6th when the Joint Session of Congress formally counts the EC votes submitted by the states, and certifies that count, as Congress has the ability to throw out EC votes.
Do not Betfair's terms referent to 'projected' EVs ?
That is why no-one is really sure why Betfair has not already settled most of these markets, like the traditional bookmakers have.
Actions speak louder than words, that the market is still open and matching millions more per day gives the biggest clue that the market is not being settled on uncertified media projections.
But what can "projected" mean, if not a media projection? Once a result is certified, it's not projected any more, is it?
There is a gap between certification and the electoral college voting. So after certification there will still be projected EC votes.
But if that's what they meant why not say "certified" and remove the ambiguity?
I guess if they did that then in an uncontested case they couldn't settle it until it was certified, so I think it makes sense to say something a little bit vague like "projected" but keep it open if it's still contested.
BetFair clearly wanted the option to settle the market the day after the election if it was was landslide.
The trouble is the wording they have chosen is entirely ambiguous an easily open to bad faith interpretation.
We are all used to the Daily Mail trying to convince us that someone on £100k is on an average income. Sky News have gone one better. They have an article on capital gains tax with the headline:
'Chancellor considers middle class tax raid to pay for pandemic debt mountain'
Within the article is the sentence:
'Only 0.5% of the population paid capital gains tax in 2017-18.'
Yep. That's the squeezed middle alright.
One of the points of the suggested changes is to increase that 0.5%. Currently £12k per annum is exempt from the tax; get rid of that, and a lot more will pay it.
But otherwise, I agree with your point.
If you get rid of the £12K allowance it would be an admin nightmare. Every single share transaction would result in a capital gains gain or loss to be recorded and paid. You could argue it could be much lower but again that would cause a lot more transactions as people try and get below the new limit. I assume it is set at £12K (which is quite high) because people with modest investments don't transact very often so you are spreading a modest gain over decades.
It's not spread over years any more, is it? All the gain is taxed in the one tax year now. Can't even carry over the previous year's allowance. You have to split up your sales between years - which may not be possible or desirable.
I agree. What I meant was that most people who say have privatisation shares don't transact very often (decades) therefore when they do their gain represents many many years of gain, yet it is taxed in a single year, hence the desirability of having a reasonably high limit. Dividends have a £2K threshold for 1 year's gains for instance.
A reduction in this limit to zero will be an admin nightmare, a reduction to say £2K will cause people to just transact every year when they don't want to. As you say not desirable.
The chumocracy leading to the kleptocracy is alive and well with lots of close bonds highlighted, but the link of both live in Islington is exceedingly tenuous, most people in Islington dont know each other!
Cummings, Allegra and - before his divorce - Boris - live within a circle with approx 500m radius.
I think if you explore the private school/Oxbridge/wealth nexus you will probably find it more fruitful. These people all know each other, marry each other, do business with each other. Brexit has always been about the old establishment reasserting themselves, big fish in their small pond.
Not sure I’d assign Brexit as the impulse for this.
It seems to be something inherent to the modern-day Tory Party, which as Perry Anderson points out in his latest magisterial essay on “Ukania” in the NLR, is reverting to rule by Old Etonians after a long period roughing it with grammar school types.
Brexit isn't the impulse, but it is part of the reversion. Grammar school Tories like Heath took us into the EU, Thatcher understood the EU's usefulness even if she distrusted the Germans, and successfully moulded it in a meritocratic free market direction via the Single Market. A continental European colleague explains Brexit as happening when the English upper class realised they'd been priced out of the Chelsea housing market, which seems plausible to me.
Mrs Thatcher never understood the EU's usefulness as the EU was only established after she left office. It was still the EEC while she was in power. She turned against it when the scale of its power grabs beyond the Single Market became clear. Read her Bruges speech.
And do you really think 17.4 million votes are explained by the Chelsea housing market? That's as ridiculous as the average QAnon conspiracy theory. And supported by about as much evidence.
There's many reasons why people voted for the various things they thought Brexit meant. Some wanted to stick it to Cameron. Some are open racists. A very small number actually understand the EU and how it works.
The majority? Voted to be better off. Its been a feature of the British existence since at least the 1970s that things have become a little bit worse leaving people with less control. Yes materialism and iPads and whatever but its all transient - life is a little tougher and colder and less secure and suddenly a magic bullet is being offered. Vote Leave and Take Back Control of all the things you don't feel in control of.
It transcended party politics and it transcends location, class and background. Yet the vast majority who even now cling to the hope of that transformation will be left not just disappointed but angry. Even if we did waltz away to become Singapore on Thames as JRM and his chums desire the little people won't see the rewards they hope for - its the opposite.
Brexit is the watershed moment in post-war politics. The political parties still haven't caught up to this new political reality but they will have to or else the gulf will be filled by people offering more extreme solutions for their perceived ills.
Mr. kamski, the rise of QMV was a major concern, speaking for myself. I also think the destiny of centralisation is going to cause a very bitter breakup a few decades down the line.
Other people seemed more concerned by the scale of immigration, though my own view is that numbers are actually less important than integration. The mantra of multi-culturalism was enacted by policies that were feeble and foolish, leading to things like authorities failing to act over child rape because of 'cultural sensitivities'. (The irony being that the Pakistani Muslim gangs common to such cases in many cities have nothing to do with the EU).
There's also the sense of being taken for a ride by migrants which is largely due to the non-contributory benefits system. Seems slightly bizarre that pro-EU types didn't advocate a system that requires contributions or long term (legal) residence, so that Britons aren't caught out.
I agree with much of that but I've never thought the EU will break up. Instead it will ratchet ever more into an integrated state. Its like the boiling frog metaphor, no individual step will result in disintegration and it will be increasing too difficult to disintegrate (it already is for Euro members incredibly difficult to do so).
We are all used to the Daily Mail trying to convince us that someone on £100k is on an average income. Sky News have gone one better. They have an article on capital gains tax with the headline:
'Chancellor considers middle class tax raid to pay for pandemic debt mountain'
Within the article is the sentence:
'Only 0.5% of the population paid capital gains tax in 2017-18.'
Yep. That's the squeezed middle alright.
One of the points of the suggested changes is to increase that 0.5%. Currently £12k per annum is exempt from the tax; get rid of that, and a lot more will pay it.
But otherwise, I agree with your point.
If you get rid of the £12K allowance it would be an admin nightmare. Every single share transaction would result in a capital gains gain or loss to be recorded and paid. You could argue it could be much lower but again that would cause a lot more transactions as people try and get below the new limit. I assume it is set at £12K (which is quite high) because people with modest investments don't transact very often so you are spreading a modest gain over decades.
It's not spread over years any more, is it? All the gain is taxed in the one tax year now. Can't even carry over the previous year's allowance. You have to split up your sales between years - which may not be possible or desirable.
I agree. What I meant was that most people who say have privatisation shares don't transact very often (decades) therefore when they do their gain represents many many years of gain, yet it is taxed in a single year, hence the desirability of having a reasonably high limit. Dividends have a £2K threshold for 1 year's gains for instance.
A reduction in this limit to zero will be an admin nightmare, a reduction to say £2K will cause people to just transact every year when they don't want to. As you say not desirable.
Thank you. IIRC one can carry over losses from year to year - but again that doesn't help much.
I presume it will be more a matter of increasing CGT rates. Frtom the current 10/20% to 40%, or perhaps 20% if some of the relevant current year's income tax allowance was unused, would make it consistent with IHT - and perhaps allow the latter's abolition by putting the onus on beneficiaries rather than executors. Which wiould make life a lot easier for executors, if not the legal profession's income streams.
Edit:@ I was recently an executor for an estate not far off the IHT limit and was astounded by the thickness of the paperwork I had to submit to HMRC just to be allowed to apply for confirmation. About 25 different forms and supporting documents, IIRC.
But increasing integration necessarily means powers entrusted on a temporary basis by electorates to national governments are given away permanently to the EU. So more integration = more national discontent.
Inertia and a genuine desire to make it work will keep the EU together for a long time, I think. But when it splits, that'll just make it all the more painful.
If I understand correctly, Britain’s Q3 ‘19 to Q3 ‘20 performance is the worst in Europe.
Sick man at the helm; sick man of Europe once more.
UK did very badly with first wave, but seeing what is happening now in France and Italy, compared to the stabilisation in infection rates in the UK, and it begins to look like the UK has done a lot better second time around.
By the end of 2021 Q1 we would be able to see the benefit if that proves to be the case.
Luckily nothing else is happening in Q1 2021 that could damage our growth prospects.
Karl Rove is of course spot on, once the states start certifying their results later this month and the allocation of their electoral votes to Biden then the meeting of the EC on December 14th becomes a formality and Biden will be elected President and Trump will then have to concede.
Rove is worth listening to as he is the strategist who masterminded the only Republican EC and popular vote win at a presidential election in the last 30 years in 2004 for his boss George W Bush
OGH, the states only certify they own state's vote, not the total count. If the betting firms are being absolute sticklers, they won't settle this bet until January 6th when the Joint Session of Congress formally counts the EC votes submitted by the states, and certifies that count, as Congress has the ability to throw out EC votes.
Do not Betfair's terms referent to 'projected' EVs ?
That is why no-one is really sure why Betfair has not already settled most of these markets, like the traditional bookmakers have.
Actions speak louder than words, that the market is still open and matching millions more per day gives the biggest clue that the market is not being settled on uncertified media projections.
But what can "projected" mean, if not a media projection? Once a result is certified, it's not projected any more, is it?
There is a gap between certification and the electoral college voting. So after certification there will still be projected EC votes.
But if that's what they meant why not say "certified" and remove the ambiguity?
I guess if they did that then in an uncontested case they couldn't settle it until it was certified, so I think it makes sense to say something a little bit vague like "projected" but keep it open if it's still contested.
BetFair clearly wanted the option to settle the market the day after the election if it was was landslide.
The trouble is the wording they have chosen is entirely ambiguous an easily open to bad faith interpretation.
I don't see how it can be bad faith interpreted.
As long as people are still betting on both sides and neither side has conceded they're able to keep the market open. When they settle it, it will be because one side has won and they're confident that won't be reversed surely. I don't see how it can be interpreted in bad faith.
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So you might guesstimate that perhaps a quarter of the Republican base who vote in primaries, maybe more, are not yet reconciled to reality.
It will be interesting to watch how much hold Trump retains on the party after he leaves the White House. It's not yet written in stone.
Boris - journalist/game show host
Gove - journalist
Cain - PR
Allegra - PR
Carrie - PR
Eddie Lister - Lobbyist
Dom - Professional psycho and self-identifying savant.
You have done well to identify Sunak and Patel as potential next leaders, they are the two who have stood up to no 10 the most.
U.K. actually locked down *later* than comparator economies in Europe, ie France, Italy, Spain.
Didn't Conservative MPs used to be more astute than this?
"Minister after minister has a story to tell about being monstered by the No 10 spin operation. Johnson feigns ignorance or treats it as a joke. The risk of it backfiring on the prime minister should be obvious but he seems oblivious. "
"The latest farce suggests a fundamentally unserious approach to the nation’s affairs."
Truthiness, and explicitly partisan news broadcasters like Fox, led to each side having not just its own opinions but its own facts, to an explosion of political lies, and to Pizzagate, QAnon and the like.
Then hitched his wagon to someone even fluffier.
Currently £12k per annum is exempt from the tax; get rid of that, and a lot more will pay it.
But otherwise, I agree with your point.
It seems to be something inherent to the modern-day Tory Party, which as Perry Anderson points out in his latest magisterial essay on “Ukania” in the NLR, is reverting to rule by Old Etonians after a long period roughing it with grammar school types.
Its a marvellous idea. Then they can arrest him live on YouTube.
I think the general point is sound but I cannot work up outrage that his director of comms worked in pr.
By the standards of pleasant parts of London close to Z1 and decent transport, core Georgian Islington's a relatively cheap place to bring a family up.
Wouldn’t describe it as cheap though!
A significant part of the gender pay gap can also be explained by height.
It is all quite curious, and does show the collective human hive mind has weird and illogical preferences, these leaders are not physically taking us into battles any more.
It is ironic that “comms” is one of the areas where the govt perform the very worst.
A continental European colleague explains Brexit as happening when the English upper class realised they'd been priced out of the Chelsea housing market, which seems plausible to me.
Still, easier to blame a tiny minority of aristocrats who apparently decide how political matters go than engage with the legitimate concerns of the electorate. After all, the latter might imply there are arguments against, as well as for, the EU...
Remember - Boris removed anyone with opinions and a backbone in September last year.
They don't pay CGT because they do not own any assets that will come close to appreciating that much, except their main home.
I am not sure what % of people hold any non-cash investments, but ISAs must put pay to any suggestion that a lot of people would pay CGT on them.
The more reflective stat would be the proportion who have paid CGT over a decade which would be a fair bit higher.
Also the middle class is not the squeezed middle.
Note - I am in favour of the changes proposed, especially on those with multiple homes.
By the end of 2021 Q1 we would be able to see the benefit if that proves to be the case.
I don't think voters are paying much attention to politics at the moment - they are too worried about the pandemic and the challenges of everyday life. That's why the Tory rating is largely impervious to scandals, and also why the Corbyn row hasn't affected Labour much. Nonetheless, people like to see a sense of purpose and direction, especially during a national crisis, and preoccupation with the possession of deckchairs at this precise moment does not look great.
We don't have restrictions in order to protect workers. We have restrictions in order to protect the elderly. If you want a swift return to normal then vaccinate the elderly and the workers can return to work because the elderly have been protected by vaccine instead of restrictions. 🤦🏻♂️
After Brown was defeated, Peston was useless even at the BBC.
They had a good justification to pay out when the networks projected Biden.
Once they didnt, they can't leave the market open, take tens of millions of pounds of new bets backing Trump and say we are paying out on the networks projecting Biden before you placed your bet. It would be borderline if not actual fraud.
And do you really think 17.4 million votes are explained by the Chelsea housing market? That's as ridiculous as the average QAnon conspiracy theory. And supported by about as much evidence.
Whether its a BINO trade deal (unlikely), a proper FTA (much more likely) or no deal (also unlikely) we need to just get on with it now and end this interminable process.
Other people seemed more concerned by the scale of immigration, though my own view is that numbers are actually less important than integration. The mantra of multi-culturalism was enacted by policies that were feeble and foolish, leading to things like authorities failing to act over child rape because of 'cultural sensitivities'. (The irony being that the Pakistani Muslim gangs common to such cases in many cities have nothing to do with the EU).
There's also the sense of being taken for a ride by migrants which is largely due to the non-contributory benefits system. Seems slightly bizarre that pro-EU types didn't advocate a system that requires contributions or long term (legal) residence, so that Britons aren't caught out.
Edited extra bit: lack of clarity was a major drawback in both campaigns. Remain seemed perversely focused on doom mongering instead of just explaining economic advantages of EU membership. If the political class had actually considered the pros and cons of the EU and formed a habit of discussing it they might've done a better job.
Basically, the argument revolves around the so-called individual mandate, the requirement that everyone must have health insurance. Congress reduced the fine for this to zero dollars, and the argument before the Supreme Court is that this makes the ACA unconstitutional (tbh to my non-lawyerly eyes, the Republican lawyers appear to be making two incompatible points simultaneously but IANAL).
Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Brett Kavanaugh suggested Tuesday that it wasn't the Supreme Court's role to invalidate the entire sprawling, 900-page Affordable Care Act, even if one or more provisions are deemed unconstitutional, signaling the key parts of Obamacare will survive the latest court challenge.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/10/politics/supreme-court-obamacare-oral-arguments/index.html
This is being interpreted as meaning the Supreme Court will also be unwilling to intervene in the Presidential election by overriding voters' wishes. Another reason Trump will be out soon.
The trouble is the wording they have chosen is entirely ambiguous an easily open to bad faith interpretation.
A reduction in this limit to zero will be an admin nightmare, a reduction to say £2K will cause people to just transact every year when they don't want to. As you say not desirable.
The majority? Voted to be better off. Its been a feature of the British existence since at least the 1970s that things have become a little bit worse leaving people with less control. Yes materialism and iPads and whatever but its all transient - life is a little tougher and colder and less secure and suddenly a magic bullet is being offered. Vote Leave and Take Back Control of all the things you don't feel in control of.
It transcended party politics and it transcends location, class and background. Yet the vast majority who even now cling to the hope of that transformation will be left not just disappointed but angry. Even if we did waltz away to become Singapore on Thames as JRM and his chums desire the little people won't see the rewards they hope for - its the opposite.
Brexit is the watershed moment in post-war politics. The political parties still haven't caught up to this new political reality but they will have to or else the gulf will be filled by people offering more extreme solutions for their perceived ills.
Meanwhile .... The RCP strop enters its sixth day with their map strangely showing Biden not winning Pennsylvania - Impartial my fine derriere.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/
I presume it will be more a matter of increasing CGT rates. Frtom the current 10/20% to 40%, or perhaps 20% if some of the relevant current year's income tax allowance was unused, would make it consistent with IHT - and perhaps allow the latter's abolition by putting the onus on beneficiaries rather than executors. Which wiould make life a lot easier for executors, if not the legal profession's income streams.
Edit:@ I was recently an executor for an estate not far off the IHT limit and was astounded by the thickness of the paperwork I had to submit to HMRC just to be allowed to apply for confirmation. About 25 different forms and supporting documents, IIRC.
But increasing integration necessarily means powers entrusted on a temporary basis by electorates to national governments are given away permanently to the EU. So more integration = more national discontent.
Inertia and a genuine desire to make it work will keep the EU together for a long time, I think. But when it splits, that'll just make it all the more painful.
Ludicrous, absolutely ludicrous. If the stats were exactly the same but names reversed it would have been called.
Rove is worth listening to as he is the strategist who masterminded the only Republican EC and popular vote win at a presidential election in the last 30 years in 2004 for his boss George W Bush
As long as people are still betting on both sides and neither side has conceded they're able to keep the market open. When they settle it, it will be because one side has won and they're confident that won't be reversed surely. I don't see how it can be interpreted in bad faith.