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Legendary Republican political strategist, Karl Rove, says the WH2020 outcome will be hard to overtu

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  • Roy_G_Biv said:

    tlg86 said:

    Only communists, Russian trolls, and those doing Putin's bidding can support such a thing.

    https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1326875620077342721

    You're opposed to the a tunnel under some rocks?
    Yes, they'll ruin Stonehenge in the process.

    Ruining Stonehenge is treason and anyone backing the proposals should be deported to Russia.
    But you too have imagined the tunnel, so it's off to Yakutsk for you too
    Oh the things I've imagined in my head, I'm probably off to hell.
  • As for Lee Cain and others, they are discovering campaigning is nothing like (competent) governing. Covid-19 doesn't give a shit how good your media strategy.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1326874996120166403

    Such an obvious cheap point that it is quite possible Hodges just made that up
  • Roy_G_Biv said:

    tlg86 said:

    Only communists, Russian trolls, and those doing Putin's bidding can support such a thing.

    https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1326875620077342721

    You're opposed to the a tunnel under some rocks?
    Yes, they'll ruin Stonehenge in the process.

    Ruining Stonehenge is treason and anyone backing the proposals should be deported to Russia.
    But you too have imagined the tunnel, so it's off to Yakutsk for you too
    The real issue depends on the length of the tunnel - if it is long enough, there won't be damage and there won't be a visible road at Stonehenge. Which would be an improvement. The question is "How long does the tunnel need to be?"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stonehenge_road_tunnel
    It's not the length, it's the girth you need to worry about.
  • Roy_G_Biv said:

    tlg86 said:

    Only communists, Russian trolls, and those doing Putin's bidding can support such a thing.

    https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1326875620077342721

    You're opposed to the a tunnel under some rocks?
    Yes, they'll ruin Stonehenge in the process.

    Ruining Stonehenge is treason and anyone backing the proposals should be deported to Russia.
    But you too have imagined the tunnel, so it's off to Yakutsk for you too
    The real issue depends on the length of the tunnel - if it is long enough, there won't be damage and there won't be a visible road at Stonehenge. Which would be an improvement. The question is "How long does the tunnel need to be?"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stonehenge_road_tunnel
    If the tunnel is long enough to TSE out of his Siberian Gulag, it's too long ;)
  • Fashion giant Hugo Boss has dropped its legal fight with an artist over his use of the word "boss" in a clothing range.

    John Charles, from Huyton, Merseyside, planned to launch the merchandise as a spin-off from online art lessons he started during the first lockdown.

    Mr Charles, who ends lessons by saying "Be boss, be kind", said an agreement had been reached over the slogan.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-merseyside-54905416
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,459

    tlg86 said:

    Only communists, Russian trolls, and those doing Putin's bidding can support such a thing.

    https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1326875620077342721

    You're opposed to the a tunnel under some rocks?
    Yes, they'll ruin Stonehenge in the process.

    Ruining Stonehenge is treason and anyone backing the proposals should be deported to Russia.
    Not sure how removing the unsightly road from the vicinity of Stonehenge ruins it? Or are you upset you won't be able to see it from the road? Its definitely not a tunnel under the stones. Will also remove a historic bottleneck, and remove some of the traffic from my parents village (worse ever since they closed one of the roads).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364

    Fox News is leading on the news that Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders – who ran to be the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate – has confirmed he would be open to the possibility of taking the job of labour secretary under Biden, a move that’s been suggested but not confirmed in recent days.

    Really? If that were true, sounds a terrible move by Biden. It will be all union only jobs, back to the 80s.

    As opposed to ZHC ones

    Go Bernie
    - Bernie would have to give up his Senate seat. Separation of powers - can't be in multiple branches of the Fed Gov at the same time.
    - Vermont currently has a Republican Governor.
    - Who is very moderate for a Republican - Vermont Republicans are different.
    - Who has promised to appoint (it's his job to appoint a replacement) an Independent who sits with the Democrats, like Bernie
    - The replacement would sit for (up to?) 6 months until a special election.
    - All of the above at a time when the Senate might or might not be on a knife edge

    All of the above adds up to some serious procedural issues with the idea, for Biden...
  • HYUFD said:
    CNN still haven't called Arizona.

    TBH I can't see what they're waiting for. Biden is still 11,635 ahead. The last update I saw from the elections board said that there were only 24,000 ballots estimated to be outstanding with over 40% in Pima (Biden's best county) and 30% in Maricopa (which is 50/50). The tracking website has 22,456 outstanding currently, and the 17,000 results added in the past day have narrowed Biden's lead by little more than 1,000. That suggests that the final margin is going to be around the 10,000 mark. As Arizona can only have a recount for a margin within 200, it's surely nailed on for Biden.
    Especially as most of the remainder will be provisionals that are unlikely to count in any circumstances.
  • tlg86 said:

    Only communists, Russian trolls, and those doing Putin's bidding can support such a thing.

    https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1326875620077342721

    You're opposed to the a tunnel under some rocks?
    Yes, they'll ruin Stonehenge in the process.

    Ruining Stonehenge is treason and anyone backing the proposals should be deported to Russia.
    Not sure how removing the unsightly road from the vicinity of Stonehenge ruins it? Or are you upset you won't be able to see it from the road? Its definitely not a tunnel under the stones. Will also remove a historic bottleneck, and remove some of the traffic from my parents village (worse ever since they closed one of the roads).
    It's not as bad as the queues in Mottram, I've spent most of my adult life in queues there.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    tlg86 said:

    Only communists, Russian trolls, and those doing Putin's bidding can support such a thing.

    https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1326875620077342721

    You're opposed to the a tunnel under some rocks?
    Yes, they'll ruin Stonehenge in the process.

    Ruining Stonehenge is treason and anyone backing the proposals should be deported to Russia.
    But you too have imagined the tunnel, so it's off to Yakutsk for you too
    The real issue depends on the length of the tunnel - if it is long enough, there won't be damage and there won't be a visible road at Stonehenge. Which would be an improvement. The question is "How long does the tunnel need to be?"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stonehenge_road_tunnel
    It's not the length, it's the girth you need to worry about.
    Ah yes, one thing not mentioned in the wiki article is that one part of the opposition to the tunnel is religious anti-roadism. For those people, congestion is a *good thing*. So all road improvement projects are evil.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,681
    edited November 2020

    tlg86 said:

    Only communists, Russian trolls, and those doing Putin's bidding can support such a thing.

    https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1326875620077342721

    You're opposed to the a tunnel under some rocks?
    Yes, they'll ruin Stonehenge in the process.

    Ruining Stonehenge is treason and anyone backing the proposals should be deported to Russia.
    Not sure how removing the unsightly road from the vicinity of Stonehenge ruins it? Or are you upset you won't be able to see it from the road? Its definitely not a tunnel under the stones. Will also remove a historic bottleneck, and remove some of the traffic from my parents village (worse ever since they closed one of the roads).
    It's not as bad as the queues in Mottram, I've spent most of my adult life in queues there.
    Held up? Don't blame Dick Turpin...

    How long has that sign been there now?

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    I mean it's not as if it's a slow news day.

    Why the f&ck does anyone care about Lee effing Cain?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    Paddy Power - Will Donald Trump be present at Joe Biden's inauguration?

    5/6 Yes
    5/6 No

    I have no idea of the protocol at these things. from the pricing I presume the outgoing president usually always attends?

    5/6 on no looks a good bet to me.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,100
    edited November 2020
    Its a good job, they are certain the 2 week firebreak worked before stating they definitely won't go into another lockdown or even use regional Tier approach....down the pub with 4 other households to celebrate.
  • Thank goodness Drakeford put in that lockdown/firebreak, or it would have been much worse.

    You know it was a really good idea because Boris Johnson followed Drakeford's lead.
  • tlg86 said:

    Only communists, Russian trolls, and those doing Putin's bidding can support such a thing.

    https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1326875620077342721

    You're opposed to the a tunnel under some rocks?
    Yes, they'll ruin Stonehenge in the process.

    Ruining Stonehenge is treason and anyone backing the proposals should be deported to Russia.
    Not sure how removing the unsightly road from the vicinity of Stonehenge ruins it? Or are you upset you won't be able to see it from the road? Its definitely not a tunnel under the stones. Will also remove a historic bottleneck, and remove some of the traffic from my parents village (worse ever since they closed one of the roads).
    It's not as bad as the queues in Mottram, I've spent most of my adult life in queues there.
    Held up? Don't blame Dick Turpin...

    How long has that sign been there now?

    Since the mid 90s at least.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    IshmaelZ said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Edge case. High treason is " compassing *or imagining* the death of the monarch," but that probably means planning rather than idly speculating.
    Imagine the court case.
    "Yes your honour, I imagined it. I couldn't help it. Someone said to me 'imagine the queen dying', and there it was in my head. Now it's in your head too, isn't it, your honour?"
    Judge bangs her gavel*, and sentences everyone within earshot to life imprisonment, herself included.

    *yes yes, I know.
    Like the Keith Vaz game, but higher stakes.
    The original meaning, I believe, was *discussing* the death of the Monarch.
  • Stonehenge is a toilet. We should flog it to the Americans if we can. They seem to like that kind of thing.
  • TOPPING said:

    I mean it's not as if it's a slow news day.

    Why the f&ck does anyone care about Lee effing Cain?

    Media navel-gazing is the best explanation I've heard. But I don't really know.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,681
    TOPPING said:

    I mean it's not as if it's a slow news day.

    Why the f&ck does anyone care about Lee effing Cain?

    Was he the 'Downing Street source' all along?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191

    kamski said:

    Quincel said:

    felix said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:
    The idiot is the one who didn't read the article.
    I think that's unfair. Headlines are meant to summarise the article. The idiot is the headline writer.
    Can we split the difference?

    The headline writer was an idiot and anyone who gets outraged by a Sun headline without checking if it is real first is also an idiot.
    Or to save time: everyone in the world is an idiot except Philip Thompson. I think that covers everything.
    Well at least I know better than to take a Sun headline at its word.

    I don't like, respect, read or trust the Sun: do you have a problem with that?
    I was just trying to save you time.
  • Thank goodness Drakeford put in that lockdown/firebreak, or it would have been much worse.

    You know it was a really good idea because Boris Johnson followed Drakeford's lead.
    There is no evidence on the success or otherwise of the fire break
  • Nor should he, he is the only thing that makes SNL good....Their baby yoda is terrible.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    Swing to No in new Scottish independence poll

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1326879651973750788?s=20
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884

    IshmaelZ said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Edge case. High treason is " compassing *or imagining* the death of the monarch," but that probably means planning rather than idly speculating.
    Imagine the court case.
    "Yes your honour, I imagined it. I couldn't help it. Someone said to me 'imagine the queen dying', and there it was in my head. Now it's in your head too, isn't it, your honour?"
    Judge bangs her gavel*, and sentences everyone within earshot to life imprisonment, herself included.

    *yes yes, I know.
    Like the Keith Vaz game, but higher stakes.
    The original meaning, I believe, was *discussing* the death of the Monarch.
    Even to do a horoscope of the monarch was treason, wasn't it? Because it purported to predict X's demise.
  • After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,100
    edited November 2020

    Thank goodness Drakeford put in that lockdown/firebreak, or it would have been much worse.

    You know it was a really good idea because Boris Johnson followed Drakeford's lead.
    There is no evidence on the success or otherwise of the fire break
    There are some tentative signs that new cases are down a bit, but they are still very high....and of course there are 2 regions which still have some of the highest rates of COVID in the whole of the UK, but straight out of firebreak, they are under the same relaxed restrictions as the rest of Wales.

    But of course we all knew that only an idiot would after 2 weeks of these restrictions make definitive claims about future strategy. In comparison, Sturgeon rather sensibly said no we need Tier approach and definitely not ruling out a full scale lockdown like in England.
  • HYUFD said:

    Swing to No in new Scottish independence poll

    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1326879651973750788?s=20

    Aww, bless.
  • Thank goodness Drakeford put in that lockdown/firebreak, or it would have been much worse.

    You know it was a really good idea because Boris Johnson followed Drakeford's lead.
    There is no evidence on the success or otherwise of the fire break
    We know it was a success because Boris Johnson followed Drakeford's lead.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Though they did have one called Len


    You can here the crowds now "Len in"
  • Paddy Power - Will Donald Trump be present at Joe Biden's inauguration?

    5/6 Yes
    5/6 No

    I have no idea of the protocol at these things. from the pricing I presume the outgoing president usually always attends?

    5/6 on no looks a good bet to me.
    No PP account, and I guess betting shops are closed so no point going in to town, otherwise I'd lump on that one.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992

    TOPPING said:

    I mean it's not as if it's a slow news day.

    Why the f&ck does anyone care about Lee effing Cain?

    Was he the 'Downing Street source' all along?
    Surely le roi est mort...applies?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Edge case. High treason is " compassing *or imagining* the death of the monarch," but that probably means planning rather than idly speculating.
    Imagine the court case.
    "Yes your honour, I imagined it. I couldn't help it. Someone said to me 'imagine the queen dying', and there it was in my head. Now it's in your head too, isn't it, your honour?"
    Judge bangs her gavel*, and sentences everyone within earshot to life imprisonment, herself included.

    *yes yes, I know.
    Like the Keith Vaz game, but higher stakes.
    The original meaning, I believe, was *discussing* the death of the Monarch.
    Even to do a horoscope of the monarch was treason, wasn't it? Because it purported to predict X's demise.
    Yes, because it was considered plotting. As in "If the King should die - what should we do"....
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Stonehenge is a toilet. We should flog it to the Americans if we can. They seem to like that kind of thing.

    I think the Welsh will want bits of it back post-independence.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,681

    tlg86 said:

    Only communists, Russian trolls, and those doing Putin's bidding can support such a thing.

    https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1326875620077342721

    You're opposed to the a tunnel under some rocks?
    Yes, they'll ruin Stonehenge in the process.

    Ruining Stonehenge is treason and anyone backing the proposals should be deported to Russia.
    Not sure how removing the unsightly road from the vicinity of Stonehenge ruins it? Or are you upset you won't be able to see it from the road? Its definitely not a tunnel under the stones. Will also remove a historic bottleneck, and remove some of the traffic from my parents village (worse ever since they closed one of the roads).
    It's not as bad as the queues in Mottram, I've spent most of my adult life in queues there.
    Held up? Don't blame Dick Turpin...

    How long has that sign been there now?

    Since the mid 90s at least.
    If ever there was a need for 'levelling up', the Woodhead road is it. It is a disgrace that the main link between two of our major cities is so poor.

    Get tunnelling!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,671
    edited November 2020
    HYUFD said:
    IDS should calm down, the Chinese passed their version of the Internal Market Bill which allows them to abrogate the Sino-British agreement.
  • tlg86 said:

    Only communists, Russian trolls, and those doing Putin's bidding can support such a thing.

    https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1326875620077342721

    You're opposed to the a tunnel under some rocks?
    Yes, they'll ruin Stonehenge in the process.

    Ruining Stonehenge is treason and anyone backing the proposals should be deported to Russia.
    Not sure how removing the unsightly road from the vicinity of Stonehenge ruins it? Or are you upset you won't be able to see it from the road? Its definitely not a tunnel under the stones. Will also remove a historic bottleneck, and remove some of the traffic from my parents village (worse ever since they closed one of the roads).
    I came back from Cornwall on the A303 last weekend. Because it was lockdown there was no traffic, it was a lovely drive and we had a nice view of Stonehenge. Fleet services on the M3 is very good BTW. Nice picnic tables in a little pine wood outside.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    TOPPING said:

    I mean it's not as if it's a slow news day.

    Why the f&ck does anyone care about Lee effing Cain?

    Was he the 'Downing Street source' all along?
    Yup. He was Leecain' like a sieve.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884
    IshmaelZ said:

    Stonehenge is a toilet. We should flog it to the Americans if we can. They seem to like that kind of thing.

    I think the Welsh will want bits of it back post-independence.
    Only the littluns. The big stones are strictly local. Unless Wessex declares indy, leaving London in Mercia.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    edited November 2020

    Thank goodness Drakeford put in that lockdown/firebreak, or it would have been much worse.

    You know it was a really good idea because Boris Johnson followed Drakeford's lead.
    There is no evidence on the success or otherwise of the fire break
    We know it was a success because Boris Johnson followed Drakeford's lead.
    Nobody knows the result of the 17 day lockdown yet and even Drakeford says he cannot assess it for at least another 14 days

    What is true is we are continuing to suffer here in North Wales and of course parts of South Wales have the highest rates in the whole of the UK notwithstanding the lockdown
  • tlg86 said:

    Only communists, Russian trolls, and those doing Putin's bidding can support such a thing.

    https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1326875620077342721

    You're opposed to the a tunnel under some rocks?
    Yes, they'll ruin Stonehenge in the process.

    Ruining Stonehenge is treason and anyone backing the proposals should be deported to Russia.
    Not sure how removing the unsightly road from the vicinity of Stonehenge ruins it? Or are you upset you won't be able to see it from the road? Its definitely not a tunnel under the stones. Will also remove a historic bottleneck, and remove some of the traffic from my parents village (worse ever since they closed one of the roads).
    It's not as bad as the queues in Mottram, I've spent most of my adult life in queues there.
    Held up? Don't blame Dick Turpin...

    How long has that sign been there now?

    Since the mid 90s at least.
    If ever there was a need for 'levelling up', the Woodhead road is it. It is a disgrace that the main link between two of our major cities is so poor.

    Get tunnelling!
    It has been approved, tunnelling starts in 2023.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-53892282
  • The chumocracy leading to the kleptocracy is alive and well with lots of close bonds highlighted, but the link of both live in Islington is exceedingly tenuous, most people in Islington dont know each other!
    Cummings, Allegra and - before his divorce - Boris - live within a circle with approx 500m radius.
    I think if you explore the private school/Oxbridge/wealth nexus you will probably find it more fruitful. These people all know each other, marry each other, do business with each other. Brexit has always been about the old establishment reasserting themselves, big fish in their small pond.
    Not sure I’d assign Brexit as the impulse for this.

    It seems to be something inherent to the modern-day Tory Party, which as Perry Anderson points out in his latest magisterial essay on “Ukania” in the NLR, is reverting to rule by Old Etonians after a long period roughing it with grammar school types.
    Brexit isn't the impulse, but it is part of the reversion. Grammar school Tories like Heath took us into the EU, Thatcher understood the EU's usefulness even if she distrusted the Germans, and successfully moulded it in a meritocratic free market direction via the Single Market.
    A continental European colleague explains Brexit as happening when the English upper class realised they'd been priced out of the Chelsea housing market, which seems plausible to me.
    Wasn’t Thatcher a eurosceptic in the end?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,681
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I mean it's not as if it's a slow news day.

    Why the f&ck does anyone care about Lee effing Cain?

    Was he the 'Downing Street source' all along?
    Surely le roi est mort...applies?
    You'd think so. Maybe there is concern amongst the hacks that the replacement won't be so 'helpful'?


  • The chumocracy leading to the kleptocracy is alive and well with lots of close bonds highlighted, but the link of both live in Islington is exceedingly tenuous, most people in Islington dont know each other!
    Cummings, Allegra and - before his divorce - Boris - live within a circle with approx 500m radius.
    I think if you explore the private school/Oxbridge/wealth nexus you will probably find it more fruitful. These people all know each other, marry each other, do business with each other. Brexit has always been about the old establishment reasserting themselves, big fish in their small pond.
    Not sure I’d assign Brexit as the impulse for this.

    It seems to be something inherent to the modern-day Tory Party, which as Perry Anderson points out in his latest magisterial essay on “Ukania” in the NLR, is reverting to rule by Old Etonians after a long period roughing it with grammar school types.
    Brexit isn't the impulse, but it is part of the reversion. Grammar school Tories like Heath took us into the EU, Thatcher understood the EU's usefulness even if she distrusted the Germans, and successfully moulded it in a meritocratic free market direction via the Single Market.
    A continental European colleague explains Brexit as happening when the English upper class realised they'd been priced out of the Chelsea housing market, which seems plausible to me.
    Wasn’t Thatcher a eurosceptic in the end?
    When the EEC ceased to be a Single Market and became a political union she turned her back on it. Funny that.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,224

    Thank goodness Drakeford put in that lockdown/firebreak, or it would have been much worse.

    You know it was a really good idea because Boris Johnson followed Drakeford's lead.
    There is no evidence on the success or otherwise of the fire break
    We know it was a success because Boris Johnson followed Drakeford's lead.
    Nobody knows the result of the 17 day lockdown yet and even Drakeford says he cannot assess it for at least another 14 days

    What is true is we are continuing to suffer here in North Wales and of course parts of South Wales have the highest rates in the whole of the UK notwithstanding the lockdown
    He seems to be a politician on the up - Drakeford.
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 483

    Paddy Power - Will Donald Trump be present at Joe Biden's inauguration?

    5/6 Yes
    5/6 No

    I have no idea of the protocol at these things. from the pricing I presume the outgoing president usually always attends?

    5/6 on no looks a good bet to me.
    All living previous presidents usually attend if well enough, Obama will be there of course. probably Bush and Clinton and maybe Carter but he is very elderly for a January outdoor event.
    I wonder if Biden will invite Neil Kinnock.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    I mean it's not as if it's a slow news day.

    Why the f&ck does anyone care about Lee effing Cain?

    Was he the 'Downing Street source' all along?
    Surely le roi est mort...applies?
    You'd think so. Maybe there is concern amongst the hacks that the replacement won't be so 'helpful'?


    Also goes to explain the hacks hysteria over having televised media briefings - something that is bog standard across the world and that our briefings are off camera is a bit of a weird anachronism finally being put right for the TV let alone the internet age.

    But the hacks will no longer be gatekeepers to what was briefed and will no longer make a living reporting briefings and putting their own spin on it. Hence acting like "spokeswoman appears on camera" is a shocking travesty.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,100
    edited November 2020
    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    You what....80% came from Spain....summer season across Europe, one of the most disastrous policies from all European leaders.

    Emergence and spread of a SARS-CoV-2 variant through Europe in the summer of 2020

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1.full.pdf
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    Pretty sure it was Spain.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,699

    The chumocracy leading to the kleptocracy is alive and well with lots of close bonds highlighted, but the link of both live in Islington is exceedingly tenuous, most people in Islington dont know each other!
    Cummings, Allegra and - before his divorce - Boris - live within a circle with approx 500m radius.
    I think if you explore the private school/Oxbridge/wealth nexus you will probably find it more fruitful. These people all know each other, marry each other, do business with each other. Brexit has always been about the old establishment reasserting themselves, big fish in their small pond.
    Not sure I’d assign Brexit as the impulse for this.

    It seems to be something inherent to the modern-day Tory Party, which as Perry Anderson points out in his latest magisterial essay on “Ukania” in the NLR, is reverting to rule by Old Etonians after a long period roughing it with grammar school types.
    Brexit isn't the impulse, but it is part of the reversion. Grammar school Tories like Heath took us into the EU, Thatcher understood the EU's usefulness even if she distrusted the Germans, and successfully moulded it in a meritocratic free market direction via the Single Market.
    A continental European colleague explains Brexit as happening when the English upper class realised they'd been priced out of the Chelsea housing market, which seems plausible to me.
    Wasn’t Thatcher a eurosceptic in the end?
    When the EEC ceased to be a Single Market and became a political union she turned her back on it. Funny that.
    It had a parliament, court, and executive when Thatcher was campaigning to stay in it. Those are political institutions, not talking shops.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Great headline in todays Times


  • The chumocracy leading to the kleptocracy is alive and well with lots of close bonds highlighted, but the link of both live in Islington is exceedingly tenuous, most people in Islington dont know each other!
    Cummings, Allegra and - before his divorce - Boris - live within a circle with approx 500m radius.
    I think if you explore the private school/Oxbridge/wealth nexus you will probably find it more fruitful. These people all know each other, marry each other, do business with each other. Brexit has always been about the old establishment reasserting themselves, big fish in their small pond.
    Not sure I’d assign Brexit as the impulse for this.

    It seems to be something inherent to the modern-day Tory Party, which as Perry Anderson points out in his latest magisterial essay on “Ukania” in the NLR, is reverting to rule by Old Etonians after a long period roughing it with grammar school types.
    Brexit isn't the impulse, but it is part of the reversion. Grammar school Tories like Heath took us into the EU, Thatcher understood the EU's usefulness even if she distrusted the Germans, and successfully moulded it in a meritocratic free market direction via the Single Market.
    A continental European colleague explains Brexit as happening when the English upper class realised they'd been priced out of the Chelsea housing market, which seems plausible to me.
    Wasn’t Thatcher a eurosceptic in the end?
    When the EEC ceased to be a Single Market and became a political union she turned her back on it. Funny that.
    It had a parliament, court, and executive when Thatcher was campaigning to stay in it. Those are political institutions, not talking shops.
    Yes but what it had jurisdiction over was much more limited then. Its reach expanded dramatically from the late 80s onwards.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    DeClare said:

    Paddy Power - Will Donald Trump be present at Joe Biden's inauguration?

    5/6 Yes
    5/6 No

    I have no idea of the protocol at these things. from the pricing I presume the outgoing president usually always attends?

    5/6 on no looks a good bet to me.

    I wonder if Biden will invite Neil Kinnock.
    As the closest equivalent to the LOOOOSSSEEERRRR in Chief?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,699

    The chumocracy leading to the kleptocracy is alive and well with lots of close bonds highlighted, but the link of both live in Islington is exceedingly tenuous, most people in Islington dont know each other!
    Cummings, Allegra and - before his divorce - Boris - live within a circle with approx 500m radius.
    I think if you explore the private school/Oxbridge/wealth nexus you will probably find it more fruitful. These people all know each other, marry each other, do business with each other. Brexit has always been about the old establishment reasserting themselves, big fish in their small pond.
    Not sure I’d assign Brexit as the impulse for this.

    It seems to be something inherent to the modern-day Tory Party, which as Perry Anderson points out in his latest magisterial essay on “Ukania” in the NLR, is reverting to rule by Old Etonians after a long period roughing it with grammar school types.
    Brexit isn't the impulse, but it is part of the reversion. Grammar school Tories like Heath took us into the EU, Thatcher understood the EU's usefulness even if she distrusted the Germans, and successfully moulded it in a meritocratic free market direction via the Single Market.
    A continental European colleague explains Brexit as happening when the English upper class realised they'd been priced out of the Chelsea housing market, which seems plausible to me.
    Wasn’t Thatcher a eurosceptic in the end?
    When the EEC ceased to be a Single Market and became a political union she turned her back on it. Funny that.
    It had a parliament, court, and executive when Thatcher was campaigning to stay in it. Those are political institutions, not talking shops.
    Yes but what it had jurisdiction over was much more limited then. Its reach expanded dramatically from the late 80s onwards.
    Because of the single market, that Thatcher championed.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    You what....80% came from Spain....

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1.full.pdf
    MaxPB said:

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    Pretty sure it was Spain.
    It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,100
    edited November 2020
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    You what....80% came from Spain....

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1.full.pdf
    MaxPB said:

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    Pretty sure it was Spain.
    It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
    Link....

    As for its like blaming China. Actually no, we know it was ski holidays to Italy and Austria that was responsible for the mass importation of it into the UK. This second wave is down to the same, instead it is Med holidays, and why every country in Europe is being hit really hard.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    You what....80% came from Spain....

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1.full.pdf
    MaxPB said:

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    Pretty sure it was Spain.
    It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
    No, it was pretty much returning travellers from Spain across the whole country.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,681

    tlg86 said:

    Only communists, Russian trolls, and those doing Putin's bidding can support such a thing.

    https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1326875620077342721

    You're opposed to the a tunnel under some rocks?
    Yes, they'll ruin Stonehenge in the process.

    Ruining Stonehenge is treason and anyone backing the proposals should be deported to Russia.
    Not sure how removing the unsightly road from the vicinity of Stonehenge ruins it? Or are you upset you won't be able to see it from the road? Its definitely not a tunnel under the stones. Will also remove a historic bottleneck, and remove some of the traffic from my parents village (worse ever since they closed one of the roads).
    It's not as bad as the queues in Mottram, I've spent most of my adult life in queues there.
    Held up? Don't blame Dick Turpin...

    How long has that sign been there now?

    Since the mid 90s at least.
    If ever there was a need for 'levelling up', the Woodhead road is it. It is a disgrace that the main link between two of our major cities is so poor.

    Get tunnelling!
    It has been approved, tunnelling starts in 2023.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-53892282
    Good news - I hadn't realised they were finally going to start.

    I was thinking of something a bit more ambitious though. A tunnel all the way through from the M67 to somewhere beyond Langsett, avoiding the summit altogether.

    The Norwegians seem to have tunnelling down to an art...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,934
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    You what....80% came from Spain....

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1.full.pdf
    MaxPB said:

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    Pretty sure it was Spain.
    It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
    May have been the same strain, but that doesn't mean it's the origin.
  • Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    Source
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,699

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    Source
    England?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,593
    tlg86 said:

    Only communists, Russian trolls, and those doing Putin's bidding can support such a thing.

    https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1326875620077342721

    You're opposed to a tunnel under some rocks?
    Depends whether the alternative is a bridge I suppose.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    You what....80% came from Spain....

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1.full.pdf
    MaxPB said:

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    Pretty sure it was Spain.
    It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
    Yep, this is it - or one version of it. I find I was thinking of the summer outbreaks. Plenty from overseas but mediated via rUK. Haven't got time to reread it (work calls) but it should be borne in mind that if these lineages had not come over the border they would not haqve caused outbreaks. At least one other PBer couldn't grasp that point. (We're not talking direct competition between virus lineages within hosts, as that needs far greater levekls of infection within the population.)

    https://gov.wales/sars-cov-2-genomic-insights-cover-statement-html
  • MaxPB said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    You what....80% came from Spain....

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1.full.pdf
    MaxPB said:

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    Pretty sure it was Spain.
    It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
    No, it was pretty much returning travellers from Spain across the whole country.
    I said in the summer (and I know many others did) we shouldn't be having foreign holidays. We didn't have one this year.

    Giving in to the pressure from the airline/travel industry has done tremendous damage to the economy. It'd be better to have all hospitality and other work open as normal but no travel than to have the whole economy locked down again.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,165
    edited November 2020

    tlg86 said:

    Only communists, Russian trolls, and those doing Putin's bidding can support such a thing.

    https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1326875620077342721

    You're opposed to the a tunnel under some rocks?
    Yes, they'll ruin Stonehenge in the process.

    Ruining Stonehenge is treason and anyone backing the proposals should be deported to Russia.
    Actually, I agree with this. I somehow dread to think of the rocks vibrating with the weight of Sainsbury's delivery lorries rattling through underneath, even if this doesn't actually have any destructive effects on the stones themselves .

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAXzzHM8zLw
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884
    MaxPB said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    You what....80% came from Spain....

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1.full.pdf
    MaxPB said:

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    Pretty sure it was Spain.
    It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
    No, it was pretty much returning travellers from Spain across the whole country.
    In part, but also then over the border, as I recvall. Memory though .. have foundf a link.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,100
    edited November 2020
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    You what....80% came from Spain....

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1.full.pdf
    MaxPB said:

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    Pretty sure it was Spain.
    It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
    Yep, this is it - or one version of it. I find I was thinking of the summer outbreaks. Plenty from overseas but mediated via rUK. Haven't got time to reread it (work calls) but it should be borne in mind that if these lineages had not come over the border they would not haqve caused outbreaks. At least one other PBer couldn't grasp that point. (We're not talking direct competition between virus lineages within hosts, as that needs far greater levekls of infection within the population.)

    https://gov.wales/sars-cov-2-genomic-insights-cover-statement-html
    "Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK."

    Med Summer holidays.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    You what....80% came from Spain....

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1.full.pdf
    MaxPB said:

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    Pretty sure it was Spain.
    It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
    Link....

    As for its like blaming China. Actually no, we know it was ski holidays to Italy and Austria that was responsible for the mass importation of it into the UK. This second wave is down to the same, instead it is Med holidays, and why every country in Europe is being hit really hard.
    Oh, I don't disagree - but (a) see the data and (b) remember this bug has very nonlineaqr dynamics. Just a few cases can cause massive outbreaks. So very stochastic at the original levels of infestation. Maybe that's what happening here. It did surprise me.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    You what....80% came from Spain....

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1.full.pdf
    MaxPB said:

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    Pretty sure it was Spain.
    It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
    Yep, this is it - or one version of it. I find I was thinking of the summer outbreaks. Plenty from overseas but mediated via rUK. Haven't got time to reread it (work calls) but it should be borne in mind that if these lineages had not come over the border they would not haqve caused outbreaks. At least one other PBer couldn't grasp that point. (We're not talking direct competition between virus lineages within hosts, as that needs far greater levekls of infection within the population.)

    https://gov.wales/sars-cov-2-genomic-insights-cover-statement-html
    "Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK."
    Originally. But there was a map puiblished showing the LATER movement over the border. I remember that as I was so susprised by it being so clear. That docvument is,l I think, different from the one I have found today - but where is it? I can't find it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,934
    edited November 2020
    @FrancisUrquhart beat me to it.
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 483
    edited November 2020

    DeClare said:

    Paddy Power - Will Donald Trump be present at Joe Biden's inauguration?

    5/6 Yes
    5/6 No

    I have no idea of the protocol at these things. from the pricing I presume the outgoing president usually always attends?

    5/6 on no looks a good bet to me.

    I wonder if Biden will invite Neil Kinnock.
    As the closest equivalent to the LOOOOSSSEEERRRR in Chief?
    No, when Biden tried to win the Democratic nomination years ago, 1992 I think, he made a speech that was almost an exact copy of one that Kinnock made during the 1992 UK election campaign.
    He probably thought that nobody in America would have paid much attention to Kinnock's speeches but he thought wrong, he was quickly found out and had to drop out of the race.
    if he's got a sense of humour then perhaps he will invite his old mentor along to share his moment of triumph all these years later.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884
    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    You what....80% came from Spain....

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1.full.pdf
    MaxPB said:

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    Pretty sure it was Spain.
    It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
    Yep, this is it - or one version of it. I find I was thinking of the summer outbreaks. Plenty from overseas but mediated via rUK. Haven't got time to reread it (work calls) but it should be borne in mind that if these lineages had not come over the border they would not haqve caused outbreaks. At least one other PBer couldn't grasp that point. (We're not talking direct competition between virus lineages within hosts, as that needs far greater levekls of infection within the population.)

    https://gov.wales/sars-cov-2-genomic-insights-cover-statement-html
    Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK.

    So introduced from abroad, not from England.
    Originally, yes, But not necessarily into Wales at the time. That original document we discussed did show a map of that kind - which surprised m e because one would expect more introduction fropm say Spain and less of a signal over the border. That's what i remember and we did then discuss it.
  • tlg86 said:

    Only communists, Russian trolls, and those doing Putin's bidding can support such a thing.

    https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1326875620077342721

    You're opposed to the a tunnel under some rocks?
    Yes, they'll ruin Stonehenge in the process.

    Ruining Stonehenge is treason and anyone backing the proposals should be deported to Russia.
    Not sure how removing the unsightly road from the vicinity of Stonehenge ruins it? Or are you upset you won't be able to see it from the road? Its definitely not a tunnel under the stones. Will also remove a historic bottleneck, and remove some of the traffic from my parents village (worse ever since they closed one of the roads).
    It's not as bad as the queues in Mottram, I've spent most of my adult life in queues there.
    Surely both the little people of Stone'enge and Mottram / Tintwistle both need dual carriageway bypasses? Great that the A303 works have finally been signed off, but whats the point in whats been agreed for the A628? Great for Mottram, shit for Tintwistle, useless for traffic
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,681

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    You what....80% came from Spain....

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1.full.pdf
    MaxPB said:

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    Pretty sure it was Spain.
    It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
    Link....

    As for its like blaming China. Actually no, we know it was ski holidays to Italy and Austria that was responsible for the mass importation of it into the UK. This second wave is down to the same, instead it is Med holidays, and why every country in Europe is being hit really hard.
    Although there were a lot of cases imported by skiers, even the first wave had the majority of cases originating from Spain.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,934
    Carnyx said:

    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    You what....80% came from Spain....

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1.full.pdf
    MaxPB said:

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    Pretty sure it was Spain.
    It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
    Yep, this is it - or one version of it. I find I was thinking of the summer outbreaks. Plenty from overseas but mediated via rUK. Haven't got time to reread it (work calls) but it should be borne in mind that if these lineages had not come over the border they would not haqve caused outbreaks. At least one other PBer couldn't grasp that point. (We're not talking direct competition between virus lineages within hosts, as that needs far greater levekls of infection within the population.)

    https://gov.wales/sars-cov-2-genomic-insights-cover-statement-html
    Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK.

    So introduced from abroad, not from England.
    Originally, yes, But not necessarily into Wales at the time. That original document we discussed did show a map of that kind - which surprised m e because one would expect more introduction fropm say Spain and less of a signal over the border. That's what i remember and we did then discuss it.
    The idea that the current outbreak in Wales was caused by the English is inconsistent with that part of the document. It came from abroad into multiple places in the UK simultaneously.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    MaxPB said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    You what....80% came from Spain....

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1.full.pdf
    MaxPB said:

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    Pretty sure it was Spain.
    It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
    No, it was pretty much returning travellers from Spain across the whole country.
    So where did Spain get it from? The UK?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,934
    nichomar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    You what....80% came from Spain....

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1.full.pdf
    MaxPB said:

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    Pretty sure it was Spain.
    It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
    No, it was pretty much returning travellers from Spain across the whole country.
    So where did Spain get it from? The UK?
    The strain had not been seen in the UK before. Could have been a mutation, or from somewhere else.
  • The chumocracy leading to the kleptocracy is alive and well with lots of close bonds highlighted, but the link of both live in Islington is exceedingly tenuous, most people in Islington dont know each other!
    Cummings, Allegra and - before his divorce - Boris - live within a circle with approx 500m radius.
    I think if you explore the private school/Oxbridge/wealth nexus you will probably find it more fruitful. These people all know each other, marry each other, do business with each other. Brexit has always been about the old establishment reasserting themselves, big fish in their small pond.
    Not sure I’d assign Brexit as the impulse for this.

    It seems to be something inherent to the modern-day Tory Party, which as Perry Anderson points out in his latest magisterial essay on “Ukania” in the NLR, is reverting to rule by Old Etonians after a long period roughing it with grammar school types.
    Brexit isn't the impulse, but it is part of the reversion. Grammar school Tories like Heath took us into the EU, Thatcher understood the EU's usefulness even if she distrusted the Germans, and successfully moulded it in a meritocratic free market direction via the Single Market.
    A continental European colleague explains Brexit as happening when the English upper class realised they'd been priced out of the Chelsea housing market, which seems plausible to me.
    Wasn’t Thatcher a eurosceptic in the end?
    When the EEC ceased to be a Single Market and became a political union she turned her back on it. Funny that.
    No she turned her back on it after German unification, to which she was deeply opposed. Like many of her generation she had a strong (and arguably understandable given their experiences) fear of Germany dominating Europe. You can date her increasing intolerance to the EEC/EU to that period.
    The Bruges speech came a couple of years earlier of course, but is much less Eurosceptic than is often made out by those who seek to project their own views onto it. (I just reread it, it's a remarkably good speech and the only part I violently disagreed with was her aside about the civilising influence of European Colonialism). It is more of an argument against state power than anything else.
    I particularly like this line:
    "Britain does not dream of some cosy, isolated existence on the fringes of the European Community. Our destiny is in Europe, as part of the Community."
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    tlg86 said:

    Only communists, Russian trolls, and those doing Putin's bidding can support such a thing.

    https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1326875620077342721

    You're opposed to the a tunnel under some rocks?
    Yes, they'll ruin Stonehenge in the process.

    Ruining Stonehenge is treason and anyone backing the proposals should be deported to Russia.
    Not sure how removing the unsightly road from the vicinity of Stonehenge ruins it? Or are you upset you won't be able to see it from the road? Its definitely not a tunnel under the stones. Will also remove a historic bottleneck, and remove some of the traffic from my parents village (worse ever since they closed one of the roads).
    It's not as bad as the queues in Mottram, I've spent most of my adult life in queues there.
    Held up? Don't blame Dick Turpin...

    How long has that sign been there now?

    Since the mid 90s at least.
    If ever there was a need for 'levelling up', the Woodhead road is it. It is a disgrace that the main link between two of our major cities is so poor.

    Get tunnelling!
    It has been approved, tunnelling starts in 2023.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-53892282
    It will be bogged down by countless archeological investigations as it digs its way through ancient history, but it does need doing.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381

    Thank goodness Drakeford put in that lockdown/firebreak, or it would have been much worse.

    You know it was a really good idea because Boris Johnson followed Drakeford's lead.
    There is no evidence on the success or otherwise of the fire break
    We know it was a success because Boris Johnson followed Drakeford's lead.
    Nobody knows the result of the 17 day lockdown yet and even Drakeford says he cannot assess it for at least another 14 days

    What is true is we are continuing to suffer here in North Wales and of course parts of South Wales have the highest rates in the whole of the UK notwithstanding the lockdown
    Merthyr is still bad, and one other (Caerphilly?) I believe you are being mischievous in hinting that it is worse in Wales than England (we are doing well, I believe, in the Vale of Glamorgan) in order to big up Johnson's awesome English lockdown.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Is this ironic?

    twitter.com/UNWatch/status/1325819598411853825

    Top trolling...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884
    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    You what....80% came from Spain....

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.25.20219063v1.full.pdf
    MaxPB said:

    Carnyx said:

    After England's 4 week lockdown should we stop the Welsh from coming into England bringing the pox with them?

    Given the research showing that much of the current Welsh pox came from England, that would be ironic.
    Pretty sure it was Spain.
    It may well have come from Spain originally, but that's like blaning the Chinese for it. In this case there was a research project doing family tree wortk to trace the different strains/mutations/variations in the Welsh outbreak and it said a majority came from England. We discussed it on PB at the time, incoluding a link to the research report - my memory of 80% may well be wrong but it was about that level.
    Yep, this is it - or one version of it. I find I was thinking of the summer outbreaks. Plenty from overseas but mediated via rUK. Haven't got time to reread it (work calls) but it should be borne in mind that if these lineages had not come over the border they would not haqve caused outbreaks. At least one other PBer couldn't grasp that point. (We're not talking direct competition between virus lineages within hosts, as that needs far greater levekls of infection within the population.)

    https://gov.wales/sars-cov-2-genomic-insights-cover-statement-html
    Lineages such as UK389 and UK395 have never been seen before in Wales and have arrived in the August-September timescale to cause considerable numbers of cases in multiple locations, simultaneously. Examining these new arrival lineages reveals that they have arrived in many parts of the UK simultaneously, presenting a signature that is consistent with the idea that these lineages have been seeded by multiple simultaneous imports from outside Wales/the UK.

    So introduced from abroad, not from England.
    Originally, yes, But not necessarily into Wales at the time. That original document we discussed did show a map of that kind - which surprised m e because one would expect more introduction fropm say Spain and less of a signal over the border. That's what i remember and we did then discuss it.
    The idea that the current outbreak in Wales was caused by the English is inconsistent with that part of the document. It came from abroad into multiple places in the UK simultaneously.
    Wording is acvtually compatible with both happening. But we really need that docuiment we discussed earlier this year to see that map I remember.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,934

    Thank goodness Drakeford put in that lockdown/firebreak, or it would have been much worse.

    You know it was a really good idea because Boris Johnson followed Drakeford's lead.
    There is no evidence on the success or otherwise of the fire break
    We know it was a success because Boris Johnson followed Drakeford's lead.
    Nobody knows the result of the 17 day lockdown yet and even Drakeford says he cannot assess it for at least another 14 days

    What is true is we are continuing to suffer here in North Wales and of course parts of South Wales have the highest rates in the whole of the UK notwithstanding the lockdown
    Merthyr is still bad, and one other (Caerphilly?) I believe you are being mischievous in hinting that it is worse in Wales than England (we are doing well, I believe, in the Vale of Glamorgan) in order to big up Johnson's awesome English lockdown.
    Looks like things were already moving in the right direction before the lockdown in England. Cases stable for multiple weeks, admissions also have stabilised.
  • The chumocracy leading to the kleptocracy is alive and well with lots of close bonds highlighted, but the link of both live in Islington is exceedingly tenuous, most people in Islington dont know each other!
    Cummings, Allegra and - before his divorce - Boris - live within a circle with approx 500m radius.
    I think if you explore the private school/Oxbridge/wealth nexus you will probably find it more fruitful. These people all know each other, marry each other, do business with each other. Brexit has always been about the old establishment reasserting themselves, big fish in their small pond.
    Not sure I’d assign Brexit as the impulse for this.

    It seems to be something inherent to the modern-day Tory Party, which as Perry Anderson points out in his latest magisterial essay on “Ukania” in the NLR, is reverting to rule by Old Etonians after a long period roughing it with grammar school types.
    Brexit isn't the impulse, but it is part of the reversion. Grammar school Tories like Heath took us into the EU, Thatcher understood the EU's usefulness even if she distrusted the Germans, and successfully moulded it in a meritocratic free market direction via the Single Market.
    A continental European colleague explains Brexit as happening when the English upper class realised they'd been priced out of the Chelsea housing market, which seems plausible to me.
    Wasn’t Thatcher a eurosceptic in the end?
    When the EEC ceased to be a Single Market and became a political union she turned her back on it. Funny that.
    No she turned her back on it after German unification, to which she was deeply opposed. Like many of her generation she had a strong (and arguably understandable given their experiences) fear of Germany dominating Europe. You can date her increasing intolerance to the EEC/EU to that period.
    The Bruges speech came a couple of years earlier of course, but is much less Eurosceptic than is often made out by those who seek to project their own views onto it. (I just reread it, it's a remarkably good speech and the only part I violently disagreed with was her aside about the civilising influence of European Colonialism). It is more of an argument against state power than anything else.
    I particularly like this line:
    "Britain does not dream of some cosy, isolated existence on the fringes of the European Community. Our destiny is in Europe, as part of the Community."
    That's a fair point German unification did transform the dynamics of the Community/Union.

    Currency unification transformed it even further.

    Britain within the Community versus Britain within the Union with the Single Currency there are two completely different prospects. The Community she believed in ceased to exist.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884
    nichomar said:

    tlg86 said:

    Only communists, Russian trolls, and those doing Putin's bidding can support such a thing.

    https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1326875620077342721

    You're opposed to the a tunnel under some rocks?
    Yes, they'll ruin Stonehenge in the process.

    Ruining Stonehenge is treason and anyone backing the proposals should be deported to Russia.
    Not sure how removing the unsightly road from the vicinity of Stonehenge ruins it? Or are you upset you won't be able to see it from the road? Its definitely not a tunnel under the stones. Will also remove a historic bottleneck, and remove some of the traffic from my parents village (worse ever since they closed one of the roads).
    It's not as bad as the queues in Mottram, I've spent most of my adult life in queues there.
    Held up? Don't blame Dick Turpin...

    How long has that sign been there now?

    Since the mid 90s at least.
    If ever there was a need for 'levelling up', the Woodhead road is it. It is a disgrace that the main link between two of our major cities is so poor.

    Get tunnelling!
    It has been approved, tunnelling starts in 2023.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-53892282
    It will be bogged down by countless archeological investigations as it digs its way through ancient history, but it does need doing.
    They only need to excavate a small area, unless it is a cut and cover tunnel. They'll bne putting out the ads for artchaeologists right now to get cracking. IU expect.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,752
    Only one poll, but the apparently inexorable slide to Indy polling north of 60% has possibly slowed.

    According to this 51/49

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18866881.new-independence-poll-shows-yes-lead-shrinking/

  • Only one poll, but the apparently inexorable slide to Indy polling north of 60% has possibly slowed.

    According to this 51/49

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18866881.new-independence-poll-shows-yes-lead-shrinking/

    I'm sure Sturgeon would cry into her porridge at only getting 51% in a referendum.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,137
    edited November 2020

    Only one poll, but the apparently inexorable slide to Indy polling north of 60% has possibly slowed.

    According to this 51/49

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18866881.new-independence-poll-shows-yes-lead-shrinking/

    Yes a bad poll for Nats and an encouraging poll for Unionists from Yougov, Yougov's final 2014 poll was No 52% and Yes 48% so on the same error No would win 52% to 48% for Yes

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2014/09/18/scotland-no-enters-polling-day-4-ahead
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,381
    RobD said:

    Thank goodness Drakeford put in that lockdown/firebreak, or it would have been much worse.

    You know it was a really good idea because Boris Johnson followed Drakeford's lead.
    There is no evidence on the success or otherwise of the fire break
    We know it was a success because Boris Johnson followed Drakeford's lead.
    Nobody knows the result of the 17 day lockdown yet and even Drakeford says he cannot assess it for at least another 14 days

    What is true is we are continuing to suffer here in North Wales and of course parts of South Wales have the highest rates in the whole of the UK notwithstanding the lockdown
    Merthyr is still bad, and one other (Caerphilly?) I believe you are being mischievous in hinting that it is worse in Wales than England (we are doing well, I believe, in the Vale of Glamorgan) in order to big up Johnson's awesome English lockdown.
    Looks like things were already moving in the right direction before the lockdown in England. Cases stable for multiple weeks, admissions also have stabilised.
    I thought the R rate in Southern England was going through the roof prior to lockdown? Hat's off to Boris for calling lockdown, even if it was a few weeks late!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    edited November 2020

    RobD said:

    Thank goodness Drakeford put in that lockdown/firebreak, or it would have been much worse.

    You know it was a really good idea because Boris Johnson followed Drakeford's lead.
    There is no evidence on the success or otherwise of the fire break
    We know it was a success because Boris Johnson followed Drakeford's lead.
    Nobody knows the result of the 17 day lockdown yet and even Drakeford says he cannot assess it for at least another 14 days

    What is true is we are continuing to suffer here in North Wales and of course parts of South Wales have the highest rates in the whole of the UK notwithstanding the lockdown
    Merthyr is still bad, and one other (Caerphilly?) I believe you are being mischievous in hinting that it is worse in Wales than England (we are doing well, I believe, in the Vale of Glamorgan) in order to big up Johnson's awesome English lockdown.
    Looks like things were already moving in the right direction before the lockdown in England. Cases stable for multiple weeks, admissions also have stabilised.
    I thought the R rate in Southern England was going through the roof prior to lockdown? Hat's off to Boris for calling lockdown, even if it was a few weeks late!
    Using MaxPBs formula for R -

    By hospitalisations

    image

    By cases

    image
    image
  • HYUFD said:

    Only one poll, but the apparently inexorable slide to Indy polling north of 60% has possibly slowed.

    According to this 51/49

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18866881.new-independence-poll-shows-yes-lead-shrinking/

    Yes a bad poll for Nats and an encouraging poll for Unionists from Yougov, Yougov's final 2014 poll was No 52% and Yes 48% so on the same error No would win 52% to 48% for Yes

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2014/09/18/scotland-no-enters-polling-day-4-ahead
    51% Yes is a "bad poll for Nats"

    You're absolutely shameless!
This discussion has been closed.