Mr. Boy, considering that big business, the political establishment, and broadcast media are all pro-EU, it seems to somewhat stretch credibility to suggest the drive to leave it is primarily led by elites.
The broadcast media, as Peston explained, in fact largely followed the lead of the tabloids. The wealthiest businessman in Britain at the time, Jim Ratcliffe, was supporting Brexit, along with several other magnates, such as Dyson - others weren't ; that was a fight between elites, rather than between the elites and the populace. The media-business oligarchy of the print media was supporting Brexit by a ratio of about 9:1. The vast majority of the governing party's membership, and many of its representatives, was supporting Brexit, too.
It was more split than that, the FT, the Times, the Mirror, the Guardian and the Independent all backed Remain, the Mail, the Express, the Telegraph and the Sun all backed Leave
The Times ( not the Sunday Times )carried mixed messages, and the combined reach of the Mirror, Guardian, Indepedent and FT is about 10-15% of that of the Sun, Sunday Times, Daily Express, Mail, Star and Telegraph.
The Times backed Remain on polling day and combined the Leave papers had a circulation of about 4.3 million actually and the Remain papers a circulation of about 2.9 million once you include the Evening Standard which also backed Remain. The ultra establishment papers, the FT and Times, both backed Remain.
When you look at Sunday papers given the Mail on Sunday backed Remain as did the Sunday People the Leave papers (including the Sunday Times) had a circulation of about 3.1 million to 2.6 million for the Remain papers
The first column is of daily papers only. The Sun on Sunday, Sunday Telegraph, Sunday Express and Star on Sunday all backed Brexit. The Evening Standard is also not a national paper.
No, all the Sunday papers were included, the Evening Standard has a circulation higher than the Telegraph, the Times, the Mirror, the Guardian, the Independent and the Express.
The Evening Standard was therefore the highest circulation Remain backing newspaper so must be included
I can't agree with that, because even with its near-million strong readership, the Standard has no substantial reach or influence in Worksop, Leamington or Great Yarmouth. It's essentially preaching to the London choir.
Who cares, RCP are judged on their forecasts before the election not when they finally confirm the winner which they will still do once Pennsylvania certifies its results.
On that RCP had an outstanding election, their final forecast of Biden 319 and Trump 219 almost spot on and putting 538's final forecast of Biden 348 and Trump 190 to shame
Putting 538 to shame is a bit strong I think. 538's presidential forecasts in 2008 and 2012 were closer than RCP's, RCP's forecasts in 2016 and 2020 were closer than 538's.
In every single case RCP forecast more electoral votes for the Republican candidate than 538 did. It's therefore not surprising that in the 2 years that the polls overstated the Dem candidate lead the RCP forecast was better. Nor that in 2012, when the polling average understated the Dem candidate lead, that 538 did better. In 2008 when the polling average was very close to the actual Dem lead 538 also did better. Make of that what you will.
The chumocracy leading to the kleptocracy is alive and well with lots of close bonds highlighted, but the link of both live in Islington is exceedingly tenuous, most people in Islington dont know each other!
Cummings, Allegra and - before his divorce - Boris - live within a circle with approx 500m radius.
I think if you explore the private school/Oxbridge/wealth nexus you will probably find it more fruitful. These people all know each other, marry each other, do business with each other. Brexit has always been about the old establishment reasserting themselves, big fish in their small pond.
Not sure I’d assign Brexit as the impulse for this.
It seems to be something inherent to the modern-day Tory Party, which as Perry Anderson points out in his latest magisterial essay on “Ukania” in the NLR, is reverting to rule by Old Etonians after a long period roughing it with grammar school types.
Brexit isn't the impulse, but it is part of the reversion. Grammar school Tories like Heath took us into the EU, Thatcher understood the EU's usefulness even if she distrusted the Germans, and successfully moulded it in a meritocratic free market direction via the Single Market. A continental European colleague explains Brexit as happening when the English upper class realised they'd been priced out of the Chelsea housing market, which seems plausible to me.
Except it doesn't explain why the public who are not upper class voted for it.
Because they blamed the EU for immigration and thought there would be more money for the NHS.
Right, so pinning it on the upper classes is dumb.
Not really. Imagining that Brexit is some kind of pure expression of the people's will and ignoring the elite interests that bankrolled it and organised it is dumb.
It's not either/or. The original post posited that Brexit occured as a result of upper class opinion and that was that.
Not really, I was passing on an observation of an acquaintance of mine who moves in wealthy London circles and had noted the resentment of upper class Brits finding themselves priced out of areas they considered theirs by birthright. If you thought I was positing it as a single grand theory of Brexit then I apologise that my original post wasn't suitably caveated. There is always a trade off between being concise and capturing nuance when posting. For the avoidance of doubt I agree with you that the situation was complex.
So another couple of years that Charles can forget the idea of Her Majesty standing down.....
I'd actually like to see this. I think the Queen has done well for this country during the Coronavirus crisis - and Britain needs far more bank holidays in general, for the sake of its mental health and work-life balance, and compared to similar sized European countries.
Which bits? I haven't seen her do anything? Not suggesting she should have volunteered on a Covid ward, but I'm interested what you think she has done?
I think this was the best-balanced statement by any major western head of state during the Covid crisis.
Needlessly abrasive is so annoying. No issue with people being tough or even crude, but I think people Cummings and perhaps this chap act that way as they think it makes them cool rebels.
It's interesting that Dom is clearly no longer in charge. It's very obvious that Gove was the source of the lockdown leak and Cain was used by Dom and Gove to leak the information. I expect Dom gets canned as the price of Boris not being burned at the Tory stake in February, wonder whether Gove will go with him. He's not to be trusted in any position of power.
Mr. Boy, considering that big business, the political establishment, and broadcast media are all pro-EU, it seems to somewhat stretch credibility to suggest the drive to leave it is primarily led by elites.
The broadcast media, as Peston explained, in fact largely followed the lead of the tabloids. The wealthiest businessman in Britain at the time, Jim Ratcliffe, was supporting Brexit, along with several other magnates, such as Dyson - others weren't ; that was a fight between elites, rather than between the elites and the populace. The media-business oligarchy of the print media was supporting Brexit by a ratio of about 9:1. The vast majority of the governing party's membership, and many of its representatives, was supporting Brexit, too.
It was more split than that, the FT, the Times, the Mirror, the Guardian and the Independent all backed Remain, the Mail, the Express, the Telegraph and the Sun all backed Leave
The Times ( not the Sunday Times )carried mixed messages, and the combined reach of the Mirror, Guardian, Indepedent and FT is about 10-15% of that of the Sun, Sunday Times, Daily Express, Mail, Star and Telegraph.
The Times backed Remain on polling day and combined the Leave papers had a circulation of about 4.3 million actually and the Remain papers a circulation of about 2.9 million once you include the Evening Standard which also backed Remain. The ultra establishment papers, the FT and Times, both backed Remain.
When you look at Sunday papers given the Mail on Sunday backed Remain as did the Sunday People the Leave papers (including the Sunday Times) had a circulation of about 3.1 million to 2.6 million for the Remain papers
The first column is of daily papers only. The Sun on Sunday, Sunday Telegraph, Sunday Express and Star on Sunday all backed Brexit. The Evening Standard is also not a national paper.
No, all the Sunday papers were included, the Evening Standard has a circulation higher than the Telegraph, the Times, the Mirror, the Guardian, the Independent and the Express.
The Evening Standard was therefore the highest circulation Remain backing newspaper so must be included
I can't agree with that, because even with its near-million strong readership, the Standard has no substantial reach or influence in Worksop, Leamington or Great Yarmouth. It's essentially preaching to the London choir.
We are talking about a national referendum in which every vote in every constituency counted equally with no safe seats as such and with the side getting the most votes nationally winning, so in the EU referendum the Standard were the largest Remain paper and must be included in the Remain column
Who cares, RCP are judged on their forecasts before the election not when they finally confirm the winner which they will still do once Pennsylvania certifies its results.
On that RCP had an outstanding election, their final forecast of Biden 319 and Trump 219 almost spot on and putting 538's final forecast of Biden 348 and Trump 190 to shame
Putting 538 to shame is a bit strong I think. 538's presidential forecasts in 2008 and 2012 were closer than RCP's, RCP's forecasts in 2016 and 2020 were closer than 538's.
In every single case RCP forecast more electoral votes for the Republican candidate than 538 did. It's therefore not surprising that in the 2 years that the polls overstated the Dem candidate lead the RCP forecast was better. Nor that in 2012, when the polling average understated the Dem candidate lead, that 538 did better. In 2008 when the polling average was very close to the actual Dem lead 538 also did better. Make of that what you will.
There is some truth in that, if the Democrats win comfortably in 2024 538 may be most accurate again
Completely apropos of nothing, and because I wondered just how daft the system could have been if they had, back at the framing of the Constitution, decided to go all "equal States; equal say in the Presidency," what difference would it have made if every State had one equal vote rather than being weighted as it is in the Electoral College?
(Taking DC as having one equal vote since the 23rd amendment)
...it turns out to be surprisingly close to history.
The only differences would have been (going backwards):
1976 - Carter would have lost to Ford 1960 - Kennedy would have lost to Nixon 1880 - would have been a tie between Garfield and Hancock 1848 - would have been a tie between Zachary Taylor and Lewis Cass (1824 would just still have been a four-way tie as it was historically)
I was rather surprised at how little difference it made.
Mr. Boy, considering that big business, the political establishment, and broadcast media are all pro-EU, it seems to somewhat stretch credibility to suggest the drive to leave it is primarily led by elites.
The broadcast media, as Peston explained, in fact largely followed the lead of the tabloids. The wealthiest businessman in Britain at the time, Jim Ratcliffe, was supporting Brexit, along with several other magnates, such as Dyson - others weren't ; that was a fight between elites, rather than between the elites and the populace. The media-business oligarchy of the print media was supporting Brexit by a ratio of about 9:1. The vast majority of the governing party's membership, and many of its representatives, was supporting Brexit, too.
It was more split than that, the FT, the Times, the Mirror, the Guardian and the Independent all backed Remain, the Mail, the Express, the Telegraph and the Sun all backed Leave
The Times ( not the Sunday Times )carried mixed messages, and the combined reach of the Mirror, Guardian, Indepedent and FT is about 10-15% of that of the Sun, Sunday Times, Daily Express, Mail, Star and Telegraph.
The Times backed Remain on polling day and combined the Leave papers had a circulation of about 4.3 million actually and the Remain papers a circulation of about 2.9 million once you include the Evening Standard which also backed Remain. The ultra establishment papers, the FT and Times, both backed Remain.
When you look at Sunday papers given the Mail on Sunday backed Remain as did the Sunday People the Leave papers (including the Sunday Times) had a circulation of about 3.1 million to 2.6 million for the Remain papers
The first column is of daily papers only. The Sun on Sunday, Sunday Telegraph, Sunday Express and Star on Sunday all backed Brexit. The Evening Standard is also not a national paper.
No, all the Sunday papers were included, the Evening Standard has a circulation higher than the Telegraph, the Times, the Mirror, the Guardian, the Independent and the Express.
The Evening Standard was therefore the highest circulation Remain backing newspaper so must be included
I can't agree with that, because even with its near-million strong readership, the Standard has no substantial reach or influence in Worksop, Leamington or Great Yarmouth. It's essentially preaching to the London choir.
Does it not get used by the BBC for their tomorrow's headlines news segment? That is a very poweful way of getting messages over.
It's getting so that I can recognise that a piece is by the cruelly silenced Lord Sumption by the the headline (usually in the Tele or Sun) before I read who authored it. Tbf it's almost always the same piece.
Who cares, RCP are judged on their forecasts before the election not when they finally confirm the winner which they will still do once Pennsylvania certifies its results.
On that RCP had an outstanding election, their final forecast of Biden 319 and Trump 219 almost spot on and putting 538's final forecast of Biden 348 and Trump 190 to shame
538 had multiple predictions up to reflect different odds. This is one of their specific forecasts, does the map look familiar at all?
Yes I know 538 gave a probability of every conceivable result just so as usual Silver can cover his back and say when the result came out he did not give it a 0% chance, it does not change the fact that on the final forecast he went with RCP was closer to the result than he was
I'm with @HYFUD on this one. Nate Silver's primary objective is to protect his back and business model. We are already starting to see the emergence of "the polling wasn't that bad" which is only true if you include the likes of Rasmussen and Trafalgar, which many denigrated. Strip these parties out, as many were suggesting we should do pre-election, and the polling effort looks a hell of a lot worse. Unfortunately, I suspect that Silver will remain in business, even though he has fundamentally called the last two elections wrongly.
Was the polling that bad? Only NC and Florida was wrong in the final "538 snake"
It was pretty bad. The national lead was 4 not 8. Quite a miss.
The analysis that a national lead of 3 was the flipping point seems spot on with hindsight.
Also the betting markets were very good on the state betting, how many states did the underdog win in? Georgia was 2.3ish democrats, not sure if North Carolina went off with Dems as fav, but think the rest were all the right way around?
NC had the Dems as slight favourites (I think Ladbrokes was 8/11 vs Evens for the GOP) but not much.
It's getting so that I can recognise that a piece is by the cruelly silenced Lord Sumption by the the headline (usually in the Tele or Sun) before I read who authored it. Tbf it's almost always the same piece.
I'm not even unsympathetic to the view but I kind of get the picture now, and I think he has a book out on it in the new year to boot.
Mr. Roger, Trump is wealthy, but he's also a political outsider.
If you've seen your factory job shift ten thousand miles east and have a worse job, or none, then being told how great globalisation is may not necessarily be a vote-winner.
Be interesting to see what Biden's response is to the BLM crocodile. Standing up to that nonsense was something Trump got right, and may explain why he got a far higher number of votes than many expected.
It's such a shame that the politics of protecting the indigenous working class in the West from the inequities of globalized capitalism seems to require a good dose of nationalistic xenophobia in order to find success at the ballot box. The upshot of this is it has been hijacked by the Right rather than remaining where it belongs - the Left.
The Left are being punished electorally for not being prepared to get down in the gutter.
The Left are being punished because they don't give a f*ck about the working classes and the latter have wised up. It's why Starmer will face such a tough job.
The working class in the US wised up and just handed Trump his arse.
Just about. Which is why Biden won but didn't win the majority everyone thought he would in places like PA etc etc
Mr. Roger, Trump is wealthy, but he's also a political outsider.
If you've seen your factory job shift ten thousand miles east and have a worse job, or none, then being told how great globalisation is may not necessarily be a vote-winner.
Be interesting to see what Biden's response is to the BLM crocodile. Standing up to that nonsense was something Trump got right, and may explain why he got a far higher number of votes than many expected.
It's such a shame that the politics of protecting the indigenous working class in the West from the inequities of globalized capitalism seems to require a good dose of nationalistic xenophobia in order to find success at the ballot box. The upshot of this is it has been hijacked by the Right rather than remaining where it belongs - the Left.
The Left are being punished electorally for not being prepared to get down in the gutter.
The Left are being punished because they don't give a f*ck about the working classes and the latter have wised up. It's why Starmer will face such a tough job.
It's strange that people think being working class makes it OK to be bigoted. Johnny Speight took the piss out of that idea years ago.
Mr. Roger, Trump is wealthy, but he's also a political outsider.
If you've seen your factory job shift ten thousand miles east and have a worse job, or none, then being told how great globalisation is may not necessarily be a vote-winner.
Be interesting to see what Biden's response is to the BLM crocodile. Standing up to that nonsense was something Trump got right, and may explain why he got a far higher number of votes than many expected.
It's such a shame that the politics of protecting the indigenous working class in the West from the inequities of globalized capitalism seems to require a good dose of nationalistic xenophobia in order to find success at the ballot box. The upshot of this is it has been hijacked by the Right rather than remaining where it belongs - the Left.
The Left are being punished electorally for not being prepared to get down in the gutter.
The Left are being punished because they don't give a f*ck about the working classes and the latter have wised up. It's why Starmer will face such a tough job.
That is just demonstrably false.
Ok, so please provide the evidence for why it is false? I am genuinely interested to hear.
It's interesting that Dom is clearly no longer in charge. It's very obvious that Gove was the source of the lockdown leak and Cain was used by Dom and Gove to leak the information. I expect Dom gets canned as the price of Boris not being burned at the Tory stake in February, wonder whether Gove will go with him. He's not to be trusted in any position of power.
Hes probably too dangerous or useful to be entirely discarded. Probably sees himself as Talleyrand.
Who cares, RCP are judged on their forecasts before the election not when they finally confirm the winner which they will still do once Pennsylvania certifies its results.
On that RCP had an outstanding election, their final forecast of Biden 319 and Trump 219 almost spot on and putting 538's final forecast of Biden 348 and Trump 190 to shame
538 had multiple predictions up to reflect different odds. This is one of their specific forecasts, does the map look familiar at all?
Yes I know 538 gave a probability of every conceivable result just so as usual Silver can cover his back and say when the result came out he did not give it a 0% chance, it does not change the fact that on the final forecast he went with RCP was closer to the result than he was
I'm with @HYFUD on this one. Nate Silver's primary objective is to protect his back and business model. We are already starting to see the emergence of "the polling wasn't that bad" which is only true if you include the likes of Rasmussen and Trafalgar, which many denigrated. Strip these parties out, as many were suggesting we should do pre-election, and the polling effort looks a hell of a lot worse. Unfortunately, I suspect that Silver will remain in business, even though he has fundamentally called the last two elections wrongly.
Was the polling that bad? Only NC and Florida was wrong in the final "538 snake"
In terms of state calls no but in terms of ramping up the narrative that states like Ohio, Iowa and Texas were in play, and that Wisconsin would be a blow out, yes. If you scroll down half way through you can see the difference:
As I said before though, pollsters like Rasmussen and Trafalgar - which were criticised as being rogue and not really credible - are being included in his numbers by the looks of things. Strip those out and the performance of the "respectable" pollsters looks a lot worse that what Nate is suggesting.
I agree. The polls were terrible, especially the polls that were open about their methodology. It may be that Trafalgar has discovered the secret sauce or they could simply be making up their numbers and got lucky, we won't know without knowing more about how their numbers were arrived at. As I understand it, pollsters find it impossible to get people to respond and so they can't get a representative random sample. Not answering pollsters' questions seems to correlate with Republican support, especially when Trump is on the ballot - the polls were OK in 2018. Unless they can control for this via an observable characteristic (like they tried to by sampling enough low education whites, which didn't work) then it's a hard problem to fix.
Trafalgar also got this wrong! Not sure why we are being asked to pick.
Trafalgar polled Trump ahead in Pa, Michigan, and Arizona, all states he lost by reasonable margins.
Mr. Roger, Trump is wealthy, but he's also a political outsider.
If you've seen your factory job shift ten thousand miles east and have a worse job, or none, then being told how great globalisation is may not necessarily be a vote-winner.
Be interesting to see what Biden's response is to the BLM crocodile. Standing up to that nonsense was something Trump got right, and may explain why he got a far higher number of votes than many expected.
It's such a shame that the politics of protecting the indigenous working class in the West from the inequities of globalized capitalism seems to require a good dose of nationalistic xenophobia in order to find success at the ballot box. The upshot of this is it has been hijacked by the Right rather than remaining where it belongs - the Left.
The Left are being punished electorally for not being prepared to get down in the gutter.
The Left are being punished because they don't give a f*ck about the working classes and the latter have wised up. It's why Starmer will face such a tough job.
It's strange that people think being working class makes it OK to be bigoted. Johnny Speight took the piss out of that idea years ago.
Don't think anyone thinks that. But what a lot of people do think is that a certain segment of the middle / upper middle class thinks it is perfectly acceptable to make sweeping stereotypes of the working class about them being bigoted and racist.
On CGT, I wonder who still pays it on shareholdings. Hasn't everyone transferred the majority of them to ISAs by now? I've spent the last 10 years doing. Anyone who's had just the smallest amount of foresight should have been putting £20k (or £40k for a couple) of their existing shareholdings aside for the last 4 years at least, £15k/£30k for the three years before that and £10k/£20k for the 4 years before that.
I actually think this is why the government will target ISAs with some taxes soon, it's become the default investment tool for individual investors so the government misses out on dividend taxes and CGT.
Mr. Roger, Trump is wealthy, but he's also a political outsider.
If you've seen your factory job shift ten thousand miles east and have a worse job, or none, then being told how great globalisation is may not necessarily be a vote-winner.
Be interesting to see what Biden's response is to the BLM crocodile. Standing up to that nonsense was something Trump got right, and may explain why he got a far higher number of votes than many expected.
It's such a shame that the politics of protecting the indigenous working class in the West from the inequities of globalized capitalism seems to require a good dose of nationalistic xenophobia in order to find success at the ballot box. The upshot of this is it has been hijacked by the Right rather than remaining where it belongs - the Left.
The Left are being punished electorally for not being prepared to get down in the gutter.
The Left are being punished because they don't give a f*ck about the working classes and the latter have wised up. It's why Starmer will face such a tough job.
That's nonsense. Take Bernie Sanders. Agree with him or not, like the guy or not, it's absurd to suggest he doesn't care about the working class. His politics, his rhetoric, his platform - it's 100% about economic reform in the interests of blue collar America. What he and his ilk on the Left do NOT do is seek to combine this with an appeal to people's baser instincts by turning them against outsiders and minorities. The populist Right, the Trumps of this world, that's their USP. It's what they do. Without exception it is. Whip up the plebs with some bullshit about how foreigners and liberals are to blame for their woes and then slip in a nice fat tax break for the real elites who are laughing all the way to the bank. Sadly it often works and when it does, far from the working class "wising up" it means they have been played.
There may be some disruption whenever Brexit occurs that was always inevitable.
But its like a hockey stick graph. An initial drop and then an upturn. Because once the disruption has occurred firms that have been caught out for a lack of preparation will be adapting as fast as they can - and the uncertainty will be removed and we can move forwards.
The brakes will be taken off the economy.
What brakes, precisely?
He is in denial about the stupidity of Brexit. I run a business. It did not have any "brakes" as a result of the EU single market, quite the opposite. I am not sure how Mr Thompson makes a living that also enables him to be a 24/7 keyboard warrior, but he clearly knows fuck all about business or economics.
It's getting so that I can recognise that a piece is by the cruelly silenced Lord Sumption by the the headline (usually in the Tele or Sun) before I read who authored it. Tbf it's almost always the same piece.
I'm not even unsympathetic to the view but I kind of get the picture now, and I think he has a book out on it in the new year to boot.
He should take some inspiration from a certain PBer on how to spin out the same old rope over several years and personas.
'How Face Nappies Oppress Us Worse Than The STASI' by Joanna Gumption
It's getting so that I can recognise that a piece is by the cruelly silenced Lord Sumption by the the headline (usually in the Tele or Sun) before I read who authored it. Tbf it's almost always the same piece.
Will his book be called “You’re not allowed to read this”?
Completely apropos of nothing, and because I wondered just how daft the system could have been if they had, back at the framing of the Constitution, decided to go all "equal States; equal say in the Presidency," what difference would it have made if every State had one equal vote rather than being weighted as it is in the Electoral College?
(Taking DC as having one equal vote since the 23rd amendment)
...it turns out to be surprisingly close to history.
The only differences would have been (going backwards):
1976 - Carter would have lost to Ford 1960 - Kennedy would have lost to Nixon 1880 - would have been a tie between Garfield and Hancock 1848 - would have been a tie between Zachary Taylor and Lewis Cass (1824 would just still have been a four-way tie as it was historically)
I was rather surprised at how little difference it made.
Similarly, if the entire US used the Maine/Nebraska system of EC votes to each district then it mostly wouldn't matter. Clinton still loses despite winning the popular vote, actually the only recent change is President Romney in 2012.
There's so much free money around on Betfair now. it's unbelievable.
There are people who only want 45/1 for Republicans to get 61% + of the popular vote in the Presidential election! I've read the rules carefully and that's what it says.
With Trump becoming more and more of a laughing stock by the the day, the US would have to become another North Korea for some of these bets to go wrong. I'm almost tempted to take out a personal loan for two months.
Mr. Roger, Trump is wealthy, but he's also a political outsider.
If you've seen your factory job shift ten thousand miles east and have a worse job, or none, then being told how great globalisation is may not necessarily be a vote-winner.
Be interesting to see what Biden's response is to the BLM crocodile. Standing up to that nonsense was something Trump got right, and may explain why he got a far higher number of votes than many expected.
It's such a shame that the politics of protecting the indigenous working class in the West from the inequities of globalized capitalism seems to require a good dose of nationalistic xenophobia in order to find success at the ballot box. The upshot of this is it has been hijacked by the Right rather than remaining where it belongs - the Left.
The Left are being punished electorally for not being prepared to get down in the gutter.
The Left are being punished because they don't give a f*ck about the working classes and the latter have wised up. It's why Starmer will face such a tough job.
It's strange that people think being working class makes it OK to be bigoted. Johnny Speight took the piss out of that idea years ago.
Age rather than class is a better indicator of possible racism, although they are getting better at hiding it, mixed relationships are breaking this down as time progresses
There's so much free money around on Betfair now. it's unbelievable.
There are people who only want 45/1 for Republicans to get 61% + of the popular vote in the Presidential election! I've read the rules carefully and that's what it says.
With Trump becoming more and more of a laughing stock by the the day, the US would have to become another North Korea for some of these bets to go wrong. I'm almost tempted to take out a personal loan for two months.
What happens if the whole election is declared void?
So another couple of years that Charles can forget the idea of Her Majesty standing down.....
I'd actually like to see this. I think the Queen has done well for this country during the Coronavirus crisis - and Britain needs far more bank holidays in general, for the sake of its mental health and work-life balance, and compared to similar sized European countries.
Which bits? I haven't seen her do anything? Not suggesting she should have volunteered on a Covid ward, but I'm interested what you think she has done?
I think this was the best-balanced statement by any major western head of state during the Covid crisis.
Didn't see it. I was under the impression she has been kept carefully isolated all year, as she is definitely in the at risk age group.
I think she has, but her "we will meet again" statement was excellent. Perspective, authority and sensitivity, and also authoritative in a distinctly female way.
It's interesting that Dom is clearly no longer in charge. It's very obvious that Gove was the source of the lockdown leak and Cain was used by Dom and Gove to leak the information. I expect Dom gets canned as the price of Boris not being burned at the Tory stake in February, wonder whether Gove will go with him. He's not to be trusted in any position of power.
The problem is that although I cant stand Gove, he is at least competent as minister and a politician, unlike his cretinous boss
Who cares, RCP are judged on their forecasts before the election not when they finally confirm the winner which they will still do once Pennsylvania certifies its results.
On that RCP had an outstanding election, their final forecast of Biden 319 and Trump 219 almost spot on and putting 538's final forecast of Biden 348 and Trump 190 to shame
538 had multiple predictions up to reflect different odds. This is one of their specific forecasts, does the map look familiar at all?
Yes I know 538 gave a probability of every conceivable result just so as usual Silver can cover his back and say when the result came out he did not give it a 0% chance, it does not change the fact that on the final forecast he went with RCP was closer to the result than he was
I'm with @HYFUD on this one. Nate Silver's primary objective is to protect his back and business model. We are already starting to see the emergence of "the polling wasn't that bad" which is only true if you include the likes of Rasmussen and Trafalgar, which many denigrated. Strip these parties out, as many were suggesting we should do pre-election, and the polling effort looks a hell of a lot worse. Unfortunately, I suspect that Silver will remain in business, even though he has fundamentally called the last two elections wrongly.
Was the polling that bad? Only NC and Florida was wrong in the final "538 snake"
It was pretty bad. The national lead was 4 not 8. Quite a miss.
The analysis that a national lead of 3 was the flipping point seems spot on with hindsight.
Also the betting markets were very good on the state betting, how many states did the underdog win in? Georgia was 2.3ish democrats, not sure if North Carolina went off with Dems as fav, but think the rest were all the right way around?
Yes the fav won almost every state. And the 1.5 Biden, although a winner, was not with hindsight the steal that it looked. I'm quite relieved to have made money. It could have been nasty.
It's getting so that I can recognise that a piece is by the cruelly silenced Lord Sumption by the the headline (usually in the Tele or Sun) before I read who authored it. Tbf it's almost always the same piece.
Will his book be called “You’re not allowed to read this”?
If his publishers are on the ball "Buy this before you’re not allowed to read this”.
It's interesting that Dom is clearly no longer in charge. It's very obvious that Gove was the source of the lockdown leak and Cain was used by Dom and Gove to leak the information. I expect Dom gets canned as the price of Boris not being burned at the Tory stake in February, wonder whether Gove will go with him. He's not to be trusted in any position of power.
The problem is that although I cant stand Gove, he is at least competent as minister and a politician, unlike his cretinous boss
He might be competent but he's not to be trusted and putting him in a position where he has access to important information that can be used against other members of the Cabinet is just asking for trouble.
I don't think this crisis is going to change much in terms of perhaps trying to adjust our economy from over reliance on service sector and away from just buying everything from China.
Fox News will be relieved. They called AZ far too early.
John McCain RIP must be smiling from above that the state was a razor thin win for Biden and Cindy McCain almost certainly pushed the state into the blue column. Revenge is indeed a dish served cold, even from the grave.
There's so much free money around on Betfair now. it's unbelievable.
There are people who only want 45/1 for Republicans to get 61% + of the popular vote in the Presidential election! I've read the rules carefully and that's what it says.
With Trump becoming more and more of a laughing stock by the the day, the US would have to become another North Korea for some of these bets to go wrong. I'm almost tempted to take out a personal loan for two months.
What happens if the whole election is declared void?
Everyone gets their money back and new markets formed for a new election presumably.
There's so much free money around on Betfair now. it's unbelievable.
There are people who only want 45/1 for Republicans to get 61% + of the popular vote in the Presidential election! I've read the rules carefully and that's what it says.
With Trump becoming more and more of a laughing stock by the the day, the US would have to become another North Korea for some of these bets to go wrong. I'm almost tempted to take out a personal loan for two months.
What happens if the whole election is declared void?
The election counts as having happened and Betfair will settle.
On CGT, I wonder who still pays it on shareholdings. Hasn't everyone transferred the majority of them to ISAs by now? I've spent the last 10 years doing. Anyone who's had just the smallest amount of foresight should have been putting £20k (or £40k for a couple) of their existing shareholdings aside for the last 4 years at least, £15k/£30k for the three years before that and £10k/£20k for the 4 years before that.
I actually think this is why the government will target ISAs with some taxes soon, it's become the default investment tool for individual investors so the government misses out on dividend taxes and CGT.
It's unavoidable if you inherit shares to any great extent.
And don't you have to sell shares to get them into an ISA? Which surely triggers CGT. Which is what you want to avoid. On the other hand it does mean one can use up one's allowance annually, tranche by tranche. Albeit at the cost of selling and buying.
Mr. Roger, Trump is wealthy, but he's also a political outsider.
If you've seen your factory job shift ten thousand miles east and have a worse job, or none, then being told how great globalisation is may not necessarily be a vote-winner.
Be interesting to see what Biden's response is to the BLM crocodile. Standing up to that nonsense was something Trump got right, and may explain why he got a far higher number of votes than many expected.
It's such a shame that the politics of protecting the indigenous working class in the West from the inequities of globalized capitalism seems to require a good dose of nationalistic xenophobia in order to find success at the ballot box. The upshot of this is it has been hijacked by the Right rather than remaining where it belongs - the Left.
The Left are being punished electorally for not being prepared to get down in the gutter.
The Left are being punished because they don't give a f*ck about the working classes and the latter have wised up. It's why Starmer will face such a tough job.
That is just demonstrably false.
Ok, so please provide the evidence for why it is false? I am genuinely interested to hear.
In the US, the Democrats ran on a programme of spending more on infrastructure and public services, financed by taxes on the wealthy. They want to increase the minimum wage to $15. They want to strengthen labour unions. They want to make sure more of the low paid have good healthcare. They also want to address racial injustices (which disproportionately hurt low income working class Americans). These are all policies designed to improve the lives of the working class. In the UK Labour will run on a similar kind of platform.
On CGT, I wonder who still pays it on shareholdings. Hasn't everyone transferred the majority of them to ISAs by now? I've spent the last 10 years doing. Anyone who's had just the smallest amount of foresight should have been putting £20k (or £40k for a couple) of their existing shareholdings aside for the last 4 years at least, £15k/£30k for the three years before that and £10k/£20k for the 4 years before that.
I actually think this is why the government will target ISAs with some taxes soon, it's become the default investment tool for individual investors so the government misses out on dividend taxes and CGT.
People with modest investments don't need to because of the tax free allowances for dividends and CGT. If they change they may need to shovel stuff into them if they can.
Mr. Roger, Trump is wealthy, but he's also a political outsider.
If you've seen your factory job shift ten thousand miles east and have a worse job, or none, then being told how great globalisation is may not necessarily be a vote-winner.
Be interesting to see what Biden's response is to the BLM crocodile. Standing up to that nonsense was something Trump got right, and may explain why he got a far higher number of votes than many expected.
It's such a shame that the politics of protecting the indigenous working class in the West from the inequities of globalized capitalism seems to require a good dose of nationalistic xenophobia in order to find success at the ballot box. The upshot of this is it has been hijacked by the Right rather than remaining where it belongs - the Left.
The Left are being punished electorally for not being prepared to get down in the gutter.
The Left are being punished because they don't give a f*ck about the working classes and the latter have wised up. It's why Starmer will face such a tough job.
That's nonsense. Take Bernie Sanders. Agree with him or not, like the guy or not, it's absurd to suggest he doesn't care about the working class. His politics, his rhetoric, his platform - it's 100% about economic reform in the interests of blue collar America. What he and his ilk on the Left do NOT do is seek to combine this with an appeal to people's baser instincts by turning them against outsiders and minorities. The populist Right, the Trumps of this world, that's their USP. It's what they do. Without exception it is. Whip up the plebs with some bullshit about how foreigners and liberals are to blame for their woes and then slip in a nice fat tax break for the real elites who are laughing all the way to the bank. Sadly it often works and when it does, far from the working class "wising up" it means they have been played.
Speaking to Sky News this morning, Mr Sunak said: "We'll talk about specific measures, but more broadly I think it's right when we finally exit this (lockdown) and hopefully next year with testing and vaccines, we'll be able to start to look forward to getting back to normal.
"We'll have to look forward to the economic situation then and see what the best form of our support.
"We want to get consumers spending again, get them out and about, we'll look at a range of things to see what the right interventions are at that time.
Mr. Roger, Trump is wealthy, but he's also a political outsider.
If you've seen your factory job shift ten thousand miles east and have a worse job, or none, then being told how great globalisation is may not necessarily be a vote-winner.
Be interesting to see what Biden's response is to the BLM crocodile. Standing up to that nonsense was something Trump got right, and may explain why he got a far higher number of votes than many expected.
It's such a shame that the politics of protecting the indigenous working class in the West from the inequities of globalized capitalism seems to require a good dose of nationalistic xenophobia in order to find success at the ballot box. The upshot of this is it has been hijacked by the Right rather than remaining where it belongs - the Left.
The Left are being punished electorally for not being prepared to get down in the gutter.
The Left are being punished because they don't give a f*ck about the working classes and the latter have wised up. It's why Starmer will face such a tough job.
That's nonsense. Take Bernie Sanders. Agree with him or not, like the guy or not, it's absurd to suggest he doesn't care about the working class. His politics, his rhetoric, his platform - it's 100% about economic reform in the interests of blue collar America. What he and his ilk on the Left do NOT do is seek to combine this with an appeal to people's baser instincts by turning them against outsiders and minorities. The populist Right, the Trumps of this world, that's their USP. It's what they do. Without exception it is. Whip up the plebs with some bullshit about how foreigners and liberals are to blame for their woes and then slip in a nice fat tax break for the real elites who are laughing all the way to the bank. Sadly it often works and when it does, far from the working class "wising up" it means they have been played.
I actually like Bernie Sanders and I do think he has the working classes at heart. And I'd agree he doesn't turn people against racial minorities in his message. His problem has been aligning himself with the members of the Squad, whose are most interested in pushing the idea that white people have privilege, which is a really hard one for someone stuck in a way out town with little income and respect, and who has probably known at least one person die of suicide and / or opioid abuse to accept. If the Squad had a little bit more sympathy on that front, they might gain more traction.
I agree this magic money tree must have gone to his head. Re -heating the virus again seems stupid in the extreme. Obviously learnt nothing from the summer experience.
Mr. Roger, Trump is wealthy, but he's also a political outsider.
If you've seen your factory job shift ten thousand miles east and have a worse job, or none, then being told how great globalisation is may not necessarily be a vote-winner.
Be interesting to see what Biden's response is to the BLM crocodile. Standing up to that nonsense was something Trump got right, and may explain why he got a far higher number of votes than many expected.
It's such a shame that the politics of protecting the indigenous working class in the West from the inequities of globalized capitalism seems to require a good dose of nationalistic xenophobia in order to find success at the ballot box. The upshot of this is it has been hijacked by the Right rather than remaining where it belongs - the Left.
The Left are being punished electorally for not being prepared to get down in the gutter.
The Left are being punished because they don't give a f*ck about the working classes and the latter have wised up. It's why Starmer will face such a tough job.
That's nonsense. Take Bernie Sanders. Agree with him or not, like the guy or not, it's absurd to suggest he doesn't care about the working class. His politics, his rhetoric, his platform - it's 100% about economic reform in the interests of blue collar America. What he and his ilk on the Left do NOT do is seek to combine this with an appeal to people's baser instincts by turning them against outsiders and minorities. The populist Right, the Trumps of this world, that's their USP. It's what they do. Without exception it is. Whip up the plebs with some bullshit about how foreigners and liberals are to blame for their woes and then slip in a nice fat tax break for the real elites who are laughing all the way to the bank. Sadly it often works and when it does, far from the working class "wising up" it means they have been played.
I actually like Bernie Sanders and I do think he has the working classes at heart. And I'd agree he doesn't turn people against racial minorities in his message. His problem has been aligning himself with the members of the Squad, whose are most interested in pushing the idea that white people have privilege, which is a really hard one for someone stuck in a way out town with little income and respect, and who has probably known at least one person die of suicide and / or opioid abuse to accept. If the Squad had a little bit more sympathy on that front, they might gain more traction.
I think both you and Kinabalu are correct, on that specific topic.
The underlying point that Sanders' brand of populism is morally superior to Trump's is also correct too, I think.
Speaking to Sky News this morning, Mr Sunak said: "We'll talk about specific measures, but more broadly I think it's right when we finally exit this (lockdown) and hopefully next year with testing and vaccines, we'll be able to start to look forward to getting back to normal.
"We'll have to look forward to the economic situation then and see what the best form of our support.
"We want to get consumers spending again, get them out and about, we'll look at a range of things to see what the right interventions are at that time.
Indeed but you can expect the comments to be taken out of context by those opposing HMG
There's so much free money around on Betfair now. it's unbelievable.
There are people who only want 45/1 for Republicans to get 61% + of the popular vote in the Presidential election! I've read the rules carefully and that's what it says.
With Trump becoming more and more of a laughing stock by the the day, the US would have to become another North Korea for some of these bets to go wrong. I'm almost tempted to take out a personal loan for two months.
What happens if the whole election is declared void?
Even if it was decided that only in-person voting on the day were to count, Trump would lose a whole bunch more states. He has hardly been the poster boy for Hard-done-by Injustice this past week.
I agree this magic money tree must have gone to his head. Re -heating the virus again seems stupid in the extreme. Obviously learnt nothing from the summer experience.
With respect maybe just check exactly what Rishi said this morning rather than journalists slant
There's so much free money around on Betfair now. it's unbelievable.
There are people who only want 45/1 for Republicans to get 61% + of the popular vote in the Presidential election! I've read the rules carefully and that's what it says.
With Trump becoming more and more of a laughing stock by the the day, the US would have to become another North Korea for some of these bets to go wrong. I'm almost tempted to take out a personal loan for two months.
What happens if the whole election is declared void?
You get your money back I assume, but not sure how that works with cash-out, ie. if someone else has already cashed out using part of your bet.
Mr. Roger, Trump is wealthy, but he's also a political outsider.
If you've seen your factory job shift ten thousand miles east and have a worse job, or none, then being told how great globalisation is may not necessarily be a vote-winner.
Be interesting to see what Biden's response is to the BLM crocodile. Standing up to that nonsense was something Trump got right, and may explain why he got a far higher number of votes than many expected.
It's such a shame that the politics of protecting the indigenous working class in the West from the inequities of globalized capitalism seems to require a good dose of nationalistic xenophobia in order to find success at the ballot box. The upshot of this is it has been hijacked by the Right rather than remaining where it belongs - the Left.
The Left are being punished electorally for not being prepared to get down in the gutter.
The Left are being punished because they don't give a f*ck about the working classes and the latter have wised up. It's why Starmer will face such a tough job.
That is just demonstrably false.
Ok, so please provide the evidence for why it is false? I am genuinely interested to hear.
In the US, the Democrats ran on a programme of spending more on infrastructure and public services, financed by taxes on the wealthy. They want to increase the minimum wage to $15. They want to strengthen labour unions. They want to make sure more of the low paid have good healthcare. They also want to address racial injustices (which disproportionately hurt low income working class Americans). These are all policies designed to improve the lives of the working class. In the UK Labour will run on a similar kind of platform.
What is more. The lower your income the more you supported it.
The R rate of the coronavirus in Britain is now 0.9 meaning the outbreak has started shrinking and the 'end is in sight' for the second wave, scientists on the Covid Symptom Study claimed today.
Speaking to Sky News this morning, Mr Sunak said: "We'll talk about specific measures, but more broadly I think it's right when we finally exit this (lockdown) and hopefully next year with testing and vaccines, we'll be able to start to look forward to getting back to normal.
"We'll have to look forward to the economic situation then and see what the best form of our support.
"We want to get consumers spending again, get them out and about, we'll look at a range of things to see what the right interventions are at that time.
Indeed but you can expect the comments to be taken out of context by those opposing HMG
I have just heard the interview live and he did comment as quoted above
It's interesting that Dom is clearly no longer in charge. It's very obvious that Gove was the source of the lockdown leak and Cain was used by Dom and Gove to leak the information. I expect Dom gets canned as the price of Boris not being burned at the Tory stake in February, wonder whether Gove will go with him. He's not to be trusted in any position of power.
The problem is that although I cant stand Gove, he is at least competent as minister and a politician, unlike his cretinous boss
He might be competent but he's not to be trusted and putting him in a position where he has access to important information that can be used against other members of the Cabinet is just asking for trouble.
Is Give competent? He is good at identifying things that don't work, and has creative ideas for solutions. Not all those ideas work, but they are creative. But his claim for competence rests on his time at Education and in the Cabinet Office. He passed through other roles to quickly to tell. And in both cases... Mixed at best.
It's interesting that Dom is clearly no longer in charge. It's very obvious that Gove was the source of the lockdown leak and Cain was used by Dom and Gove to leak the information. I expect Dom gets canned as the price of Boris not being burned at the Tory stake in February, wonder whether Gove will go with him. He's not to be trusted in any position of power.
The problem is that although I cant stand Gove, he is at least competent as minister and a politician, unlike his cretinous boss
He might be competent but he's not to be trusted and putting him in a position where he has access to important information that can be used against other members of the Cabinet is just asking for trouble.
Is Give competent? He is good at identifying things that don't work, and has creative ideas for solutions. Not all those ideas work, but they are creative. But his claim for competence rests on his time at Education and in the Cabinet Office. He passed through other roles to quickly to tell. And in both cases... Mixed at best.
He created a set of exams more suited to the 1960s than the current day. Now the internet exists, it's not what you know that is important - it's how you find and apply that knowledge...
On CGT, I wonder who still pays it on shareholdings. Hasn't everyone transferred the majority of them to ISAs by now? I've spent the last 10 years doing. Anyone who's had just the smallest amount of foresight should have been putting £20k (or £40k for a couple) of their existing shareholdings aside for the last 4 years at least, £15k/£30k for the three years before that and £10k/£20k for the 4 years before that.
I actually think this is why the government will target ISAs with some taxes soon, it's become the default investment tool for individual investors so the government misses out on dividend taxes and CGT.
A big problem with lowering the CGT threshold is reporting compliance. Tracking shares over a number of years as they merge, do share splits is hard work and the brokers dont help much.
How many people even know the rule that you have to report CGT if you are registered for self assessment and sell assets worth 4x the threshold, regardless of whether you make any profit or even a loss?
Mr. Roger, Trump is wealthy, but he's also a political outsider.
If you've seen your factory job shift ten thousand miles east and have a worse job, or none, then being told how great globalisation is may not necessarily be a vote-winner.
Be interesting to see what Biden's response is to the BLM crocodile. Standing up to that nonsense was something Trump got right, and may explain why he got a far higher number of votes than many expected.
It's such a shame that the politics of protecting the indigenous working class in the West from the inequities of globalized capitalism seems to require a good dose of nationalistic xenophobia in order to find success at the ballot box. The upshot of this is it has been hijacked by the Right rather than remaining where it belongs - the Left.
The Left are being punished electorally for not being prepared to get down in the gutter.
The Left are being punished because they don't give a f*ck about the working classes and the latter have wised up. It's why Starmer will face such a tough job.
That's nonsense. Take Bernie Sanders. Agree with him or not, like the guy or not, it's absurd to suggest he doesn't care about the working class. His politics, his rhetoric, his platform - it's 100% about economic reform in the interests of blue collar America. What he and his ilk on the Left do NOT do is seek to combine this with an appeal to people's baser instincts by turning them against outsiders and minorities. The populist Right, the Trumps of this world, that's their USP. It's what they do. Without exception it is. Whip up the plebs with some bullshit about how foreigners and liberals are to blame for their woes and then slip in a nice fat tax break for the real elites who are laughing all the way to the bank. Sadly it often works and when it does, far from the working class "wising up" it means they have been played.
I actually like Bernie Sanders and I do think he has the working classes at heart. And I'd agree he doesn't turn people against racial minorities in his message. His problem has been aligning himself with the members of the Squad, whose are most interested in pushing the idea that white people have privilege, which is a really hard one for someone stuck in a way out town with little income and respect, and who has probably known at least one person die of suicide and / or opioid abuse to accept. If the Squad had a little bit more sympathy on that front, they might gain more traction.
This speaks to the issue of how inequalities of class AND race should be viewed, talked about and tackled. I think they go together and it's important that the Left are not perceived to be far more interested in one than the other.
The chumocracy leading to the kleptocracy is alive and well with lots of close bonds highlighted, but the link of both live in Islington is exceedingly tenuous, most people in Islington dont know each other!
Cummings, Allegra and - before his divorce - Boris - live within a circle with approx 500m radius.
I think if you explore the private school/Oxbridge/wealth nexus you will probably find it more fruitful. These people all know each other, marry each other, do business with each other. Brexit has always been about the old establishment reasserting themselves, big fish in their small pond.
Not sure I’d assign Brexit as the impulse for this.
It seems to be something inherent to the modern-day Tory Party, which as Perry Anderson points out in his latest magisterial essay on “Ukania” in the NLR, is reverting to rule by Old Etonians after a long period roughing it with grammar school types.
Brexit isn't the impulse, but it is part of the reversion. Grammar school Tories like Heath took us into the EU, Thatcher understood the EU's usefulness even if she distrusted the Germans, and successfully moulded it in a meritocratic free market direction via the Single Market. A continental European colleague explains Brexit as happening when the English upper class realised they'd been priced out of the Chelsea housing market, which seems plausible to me.
Not really true, Eton educated Macmillan was the one who first asked for us to join the Common Market and Eton educated Cameron led the Leave campaign. Grammar school educated Enoch Powell was the earliest and most notable Tory Brexiteer
Sorry, should have been Eton educated Cameron led the Remain campaign.
The Tory pro-European toffs were of the old One Nation variety - the traditional order should be maintained but the upper-crust had a duty to improve the life chances of those less lucky by birth. In contrast, I get the impression that the likes of Rees-Mogg think the end of the peasantry was a decidedly retrograde step.
Lord Salisbury was an Old Etonian, as was Alan Clark, there have always been Old Etonians on the hard right not just the One Nation left of the Tory Party, Rees Mogg is no exception
Like Rees-Mogg, I always felt that Alan Clark wasn't a true aristocrat but a bit of a brash, new-money type. (That his surname suggests his ancestor was Bob Cratchit should have given him a clue.)
Neither Rees-Mogg nor Alan Clark are/were aristocrats in any sense of the term, despite the castles and posing and ludicrous airs they adopt. Clark was rather vulgar really, if a good diarist. Rees-Mogg is simply ludicrous with all his affectations.
And he literally said "spring", "vaccine" and "testing" as part of the equation. The headline doesn't match the comment at all, definitely fake news.
Yes, it's really shabby. A reasonable reader of the headline would conclude Sunak had suggested EOTHO was either planned or at least strongly considered for Dec/Jan/Feb, whereas a reasonable reader of his quote would conclude Sunak was going to do something either in the New Year or after a vaccine roll-out in Spring onwards and that he was being deliberately non-specific about what form that will take.
It's interesting that Dom is clearly no longer in charge. It's very obvious that Gove was the source of the lockdown leak and Cain was used by Dom and Gove to leak the information. I expect Dom gets canned as the price of Boris not being burned at the Tory stake in February, wonder whether Gove will go with him. He's not to be trusted in any position of power.
The problem is that although I cant stand Gove, he is at least competent as minister and a politician, unlike his cretinous boss
He might be competent but he's not to be trusted and putting him in a position where he has access to important information that can be used against other members of the Cabinet is just asking for trouble.
Is Give competent? He is good at identifying things that don't work, and has creative ideas for solutions. Not all those ideas work, but they are creative. But his claim for competence rests on his time at Education and in the Cabinet Office. He passed through other roles to quickly to tell. And in both cases... Mixed at best.
I did say might, I'm reserving judgement as I haven't seen any examples of that supposed competence so far. Free schools and academies could have been an education revolution that made state education competitive with private sector education, due to his incompetence and Dom being unable to take people with him it's now only available for a few lucky children who live in catchment areas of free schools and academies.
The chumocracy leading to the kleptocracy is alive and well with lots of close bonds highlighted, but the link of both live in Islington is exceedingly tenuous, most people in Islington dont know each other!
Cummings, Allegra and - before his divorce - Boris - live within a circle with approx 500m radius.
I think if you explore the private school/Oxbridge/wealth nexus you will probably find it more fruitful. These people all know each other, marry each other, do business with each other. Brexit has always been about the old establishment reasserting themselves, big fish in their small pond.
Not sure I’d assign Brexit as the impulse for this.
It seems to be something inherent to the modern-day Tory Party, which as Perry Anderson points out in his latest magisterial essay on “Ukania” in the NLR, is reverting to rule by Old Etonians after a long period roughing it with grammar school types.
Brexit isn't the impulse, but it is part of the reversion. Grammar school Tories like Heath took us into the EU, Thatcher understood the EU's usefulness even if she distrusted the Germans, and successfully moulded it in a meritocratic free market direction via the Single Market. A continental European colleague explains Brexit as happening when the English upper class realised they'd been priced out of the Chelsea housing market, which seems plausible to me.
Not really true, Eton educated Macmillan was the one who first asked for us to join the Common Market and Eton educated Cameron led the Leave campaign. Grammar school educated Enoch Powell was the earliest and most notable Tory Brexiteer
Sorry, should have been Eton educated Cameron led the Remain campaign.
The Tory pro-European toffs were of the old One Nation variety - the traditional order should be maintained but the upper-crust had a duty to improve the life chances of those less lucky by birth. In contrast, I get the impression that the likes of Rees-Mogg think the end of the peasantry was a decidedly retrograde step.
Lord Salisbury was an Old Etonian, as was Alan Clark, there have always been Old Etonians on the hard right not just the One Nation left of the Tory Party, Rees Mogg is no exception
Like Rees-Mogg, I always felt that Alan Clark wasn't a true aristocrat but a bit of a brash, new-money type. (That his surname suggests his ancestor was Bob Cratchit should have given him a clue.)
Neither Rees-Mogg nor Alan Clark are/were aristocrats in any sense of the term, despite the castles and posing and ludicrous airs they adopt. Clark was rather vulgar really, if a good diarist. Rees-Mogg is simply ludicrous with all his affectations.
Lord Salisbury certainly was, he was the 3rd Marquess of Salisbury and was an Old Etonian very much on the right of the Tory Party and probably the most rightwing Tory PM before Thatcher since the Great Reform Act
There's so much free money around on Betfair now. it's unbelievable.
There are people who only want 45/1 for Republicans to get 61% + of the popular vote in the Presidential election! I've read the rules carefully and that's what it says.
With Trump becoming more and more of a laughing stock by the the day, the US would have to become another North Korea for some of these bets to go wrong. I'm almost tempted to take out a personal loan for two months.
What happens if the whole election is declared void?
You get your money back I assume, but not sure how that works with cash-out, ie. if someone else has already cashed out using part of your bet.
They may have cashed out but they haven't actually got their hands on their winnings yet and they won't if all bets are cancelled.
It's interesting that Dom is clearly no longer in charge. It's very obvious that Gove was the source of the lockdown leak and Cain was used by Dom and Gove to leak the information. I expect Dom gets canned as the price of Boris not being burned at the Tory stake in February, wonder whether Gove will go with him. He's not to be trusted in any position of power.
The problem is that although I cant stand Gove, he is at least competent as minister and a politician, unlike his cretinous boss
He might be competent but he's not to be trusted and putting him in a position where he has access to important information that can be used against other members of the Cabinet is just asking for trouble.
Is Give competent? He is good at identifying things that don't work, and has creative ideas for solutions. Not all those ideas work, but they are creative. But his claim for competence rests on his time at Education and in the Cabinet Office. He passed through other roles to quickly to tell. And in both cases... Mixed at best.
His claims for competence rest more on his time at Environment. Even my Lefty Green chums were finding their heads exploding at thinking he was doing a damned fine job there....
The chumocracy leading to the kleptocracy is alive and well with lots of close bonds highlighted, but the link of both live in Islington is exceedingly tenuous, most people in Islington dont know each other!
Cummings, Allegra and - before his divorce - Boris - live within a circle with approx 500m radius.
I think if you explore the private school/Oxbridge/wealth nexus you will probably find it more fruitful. These people all know each other, marry each other, do business with each other. Brexit has always been about the old establishment reasserting themselves, big fish in their small pond.
Not sure I’d assign Brexit as the impulse for this.
It seems to be something inherent to the modern-day Tory Party, which as Perry Anderson points out in his latest magisterial essay on “Ukania” in the NLR, is reverting to rule by Old Etonians after a long period roughing it with grammar school types.
Brexit isn't the impulse, but it is part of the reversion. Grammar school Tories like Heath took us into the EU, Thatcher understood the EU's usefulness even if she distrusted the Germans, and successfully moulded it in a meritocratic free market direction via the Single Market. A continental European colleague explains Brexit as happening when the English upper class realised they'd been priced out of the Chelsea housing market, which seems plausible to me.
Not really true, Eton educated Macmillan was the one who first asked for us to join the Common Market and Eton educated Cameron led the Leave campaign. Grammar school educated Enoch Powell was the earliest and most notable Tory Brexiteer
Sorry, should have been Eton educated Cameron led the Remain campaign.
The Tory pro-European toffs were of the old One Nation variety - the traditional order should be maintained but the upper-crust had a duty to improve the life chances of those less lucky by birth. In contrast, I get the impression that the likes of Rees-Mogg think the end of the peasantry was a decidedly retrograde step.
Lord Salisbury was an Old Etonian, as was Alan Clark, there have always been Old Etonians on the hard right not just the One Nation left of the Tory Party, Rees Mogg is no exception
Like Rees-Mogg, I always felt that Alan Clark wasn't a true aristocrat but a bit of a brash, new-money type. (That his surname suggests his ancestor was Bob Cratchit should have given him a clue.)
Neither Rees-Mogg nor Alan Clark are/were aristocrats in any sense of the term, despite the castles and posing and ludicrous airs they adopt. Clark was rather vulgar really, if a good diarist. Rees-Mogg is simply ludicrous with all his affectations.
As you say, Clark loved to pose, but he was simply living off the back of a cultured father, with almost none of the historical 'position' his pretensions aspired to. Rees-Mogg's background, disappointingly for him, I thought was a mixture of business and west country squire too, turbocharged like Boris by the atmosphere of individualist entitlement of 1980's Eton.
Mr. Roger, Trump is wealthy, but he's also a political outsider.
If you've seen your factory job shift ten thousand miles east and have a worse job, or none, then being told how great globalisation is may not necessarily be a vote-winner.
Be interesting to see what Biden's response is to the BLM crocodile. Standing up to that nonsense was something Trump got right, and may explain why he got a far higher number of votes than many expected.
It's such a shame that the politics of protecting the indigenous working class in the West from the inequities of globalized capitalism seems to require a good dose of nationalistic xenophobia in order to find success at the ballot box. The upshot of this is it has been hijacked by the Right rather than remaining where it belongs - the Left.
The Left are being punished electorally for not being prepared to get down in the gutter.
The Left are being punished because they don't give a f*ck about the working classes and the latter have wised up. It's why Starmer will face such a tough job.
That is just demonstrably false.
Ok, so please provide the evidence for why it is false? I am genuinely interested to hear.
In the US, the Democrats ran on a programme of spending more on infrastructure and public services, financed by taxes on the wealthy. They want to increase the minimum wage to $15. They want to strengthen labour unions. They want to make sure more of the low paid have good healthcare. They also want to address racial injustices (which disproportionately hurt low income working class Americans). These are all policies designed to improve the lives of the working class. In the UK Labour will run on a similar kind of platform.
There is a lot in the US Democrat proposals that, if it is carried through, would help. As I said to @kinabalu the Democrat activist base has made far more noise and showed far more concern about BLM that it has done about poor people stuck out in the middle of nowhere whose towns have fallen apart as jobs have migrated away and residents die of suicides and opioid overdoses. A bit more on the latter would help.
Mr. Roger, Trump is wealthy, but he's also a political outsider.
If you've seen your factory job shift ten thousand miles east and have a worse job, or none, then being told how great globalisation is may not necessarily be a vote-winner.
Be interesting to see what Biden's response is to the BLM crocodile. Standing up to that nonsense was something Trump got right, and may explain why he got a far higher number of votes than many expected.
It's such a shame that the politics of protecting the indigenous working class in the West from the inequities of globalized capitalism seems to require a good dose of nationalistic xenophobia in order to find success at the ballot box. The upshot of this is it has been hijacked by the Right rather than remaining where it belongs - the Left.
The Left are being punished electorally for not being prepared to get down in the gutter.
The Left are being punished because they don't give a f*ck about the working classes and the latter have wised up. It's why Starmer will face such a tough job.
That is just demonstrably false.
Ok, so please provide the evidence for why it is false? I am genuinely interested to hear.
In the US, the Democrats ran on a programme of spending more on infrastructure and public services, financed by taxes on the wealthy. They want to increase the minimum wage to $15. They want to strengthen labour unions. They want to make sure more of the low paid have good healthcare. They also want to address racial injustices (which disproportionately hurt low income working class Americans). These are all policies designed to improve the lives of the working class. In the UK Labour will run on a similar kind of platform.
What is more. The lower your income the more you supported it.
Actually while Hillary did best with the poorest voters earning under $30 000 in 2016, Biden did best with middle income voters earning $50 000 - $99 999 in 2020.
Trump by contrast did best with higher income voters earning $100 000 - $199,999 in 2020 whereas in 2016 he did best with middle income voters earning $50 000 - $99 999.
I would genuinely hate to be a politician...imagine you give a perfectly sensible answer including very clear caveats and within 2hrs, a number of media outlets are running a headline that says something you absolutely didn't say.
Only a few weeks ago there was all that nonsense about actors should retrain as ...., Again Sunak didn't say what was being reported, but everybody was in the outrage bus by the evening.
The chumocracy leading to the kleptocracy is alive and well with lots of close bonds highlighted, but the link of both live in Islington is exceedingly tenuous, most people in Islington dont know each other!
Cummings, Allegra and - before his divorce - Boris - live within a circle with approx 500m radius.
I think if you explore the private school/Oxbridge/wealth nexus you will probably find it more fruitful. These people all know each other, marry each other, do business with each other. Brexit has always been about the old establishment reasserting themselves, big fish in their small pond.
Not sure I’d assign Brexit as the impulse for this.
It seems to be something inherent to the modern-day Tory Party, which as Perry Anderson points out in his latest magisterial essay on “Ukania” in the NLR, is reverting to rule by Old Etonians after a long period roughing it with grammar school types.
Brexit isn't the impulse, but it is part of the reversion. Grammar school Tories like Heath took us into the EU, Thatcher understood the EU's usefulness even if she distrusted the Germans, and successfully moulded it in a meritocratic free market direction via the Single Market. A continental European colleague explains Brexit as happening when the English upper class realised they'd been priced out of the Chelsea housing market, which seems plausible to me.
Not really true, Eton educated Macmillan was the one who first asked for us to join the Common Market and Eton educated Cameron led the Leave campaign. Grammar school educated Enoch Powell was the earliest and most notable Tory Brexiteer
Sorry, should have been Eton educated Cameron led the Remain campaign.
The Tory pro-European toffs were of the old One Nation variety - the traditional order should be maintained but the upper-crust had a duty to improve the life chances of those less lucky by birth. In contrast, I get the impression that the likes of Rees-Mogg think the end of the peasantry was a decidedly retrograde step.
Lord Salisbury was an Old Etonian, as was Alan Clark, there have always been Old Etonians on the hard right not just the One Nation left of the Tory Party, Rees Mogg is no exception
Like Rees-Mogg, I always felt that Alan Clark wasn't a true aristocrat but a bit of a brash, new-money type. (That his surname suggests his ancestor was Bob Cratchit should have given him a clue.)
Neither Rees-Mogg nor Alan Clark are/were aristocrats in any sense of the term, despite the castles and posing and ludicrous airs they adopt. Clark was rather vulgar really, if a good diarist. Rees-Mogg is simply ludicrous with all his affectations.
As you say, Clark loved to pose, but he was simply living off the back of a cultured father, with almost none of the historical 'position' his pretensions aspired to. Rees-Mogg's background, disappointingly for him, I thought was a mixture of business and west country squire too, turbocharged like Boris by the atmosphere of individualist entitlement of 1980's Eton.
Rees Mogg's mother in law was the daughter of the 8th Earl Fitzwilliam
It's interesting that Dom is clearly no longer in charge. It's very obvious that Gove was the source of the lockdown leak and Cain was used by Dom and Gove to leak the information. I expect Dom gets canned as the price of Boris not being burned at the Tory stake in February, wonder whether Gove will go with him. He's not to be trusted in any position of power.
The problem is that although I cant stand Gove, he is at least competent as minister and a politician, unlike his cretinous boss
He might be competent but he's not to be trusted and putting him in a position where he has access to important information that can be used against other members of the Cabinet is just asking for trouble.
Is Give competent? He is good at identifying things that don't work, and has creative ideas for solutions. Not all those ideas work, but they are creative. But his claim for competence rests on his time at Education and in the Cabinet Office. He passed through other roles to quickly to tell. And in both cases... Mixed at best.
He created a set of exams more suited to the 1960s than the current day. Now the internet exists, it's not what you know that is important - it's how you find and apply that knowledge...
I'm willing to cut the goblin some slack there. By 2010, modular GCSEs and A Levels weren't working well. The skills often became easily coachable soundbites and the lack of knowledge was inhibiting student's thinking. (You can look everything up, but knowing some facts in a framework is helpful and empowering.) The modular structure was abused by schools, using retake after retake to grind out higher grades. But Gove went too far, too fast and too arrogantly alone, which created loads of problems. Right diagnosis, wrong and poorly managed solution.
The chumocracy leading to the kleptocracy is alive and well with lots of close bonds highlighted, but the link of both live in Islington is exceedingly tenuous, most people in Islington dont know each other!
Cummings, Allegra and - before his divorce - Boris - live within a circle with approx 500m radius.
I think if you explore the private school/Oxbridge/wealth nexus you will probably find it more fruitful. These people all know each other, marry each other, do business with each other. Brexit has always been about the old establishment reasserting themselves, big fish in their small pond.
Not sure I’d assign Brexit as the impulse for this.
It seems to be something inherent to the modern-day Tory Party, which as Perry Anderson points out in his latest magisterial essay on “Ukania” in the NLR, is reverting to rule by Old Etonians after a long period roughing it with grammar school types.
Brexit isn't the impulse, but it is part of the reversion. Grammar school Tories like Heath took us into the EU, Thatcher understood the EU's usefulness even if she distrusted the Germans, and successfully moulded it in a meritocratic free market direction via the Single Market. A continental European colleague explains Brexit as happening when the English upper class realised they'd been priced out of the Chelsea housing market, which seems plausible to me.
Not really true, Eton educated Macmillan was the one who first asked for us to join the Common Market and Eton educated Cameron led the Leave campaign. Grammar school educated Enoch Powell was the earliest and most notable Tory Brexiteer
Sorry, should have been Eton educated Cameron led the Remain campaign.
The Tory pro-European toffs were of the old One Nation variety - the traditional order should be maintained but the upper-crust had a duty to improve the life chances of those less lucky by birth. In contrast, I get the impression that the likes of Rees-Mogg think the end of the peasantry was a decidedly retrograde step.
Lord Salisbury was an Old Etonian, as was Alan Clark, there have always been Old Etonians on the hard right not just the One Nation left of the Tory Party, Rees Mogg is no exception
Like Rees-Mogg, I always felt that Alan Clark wasn't a true aristocrat but a bit of a brash, new-money type. (That his surname suggests his ancestor was Bob Cratchit should have given him a clue.)
Neither Rees-Mogg nor Alan Clark are/were aristocrats in any sense of the term, despite the castles and posing and ludicrous airs they adopt. Clark was rather vulgar really, if a good diarist. Rees-Mogg is simply ludicrous with all his affectations.
As you say, Clark loved to pose, but he was simply living off the back of a cultured father, with almost none of the historical 'position' his pretensions aspired to. Rees-Mogg's background, disappointingly for him, I thought was a mixture of business and west country squire too, turbocharged like Boris by the atmosphere of individualist entitlement of 1980's Eton.
Rees Mogg's mother in law was the daughter of the 8th Earl Fitzwilliam
But his own ancestors were just minor local squires, as I understand it.
It's interesting that Dom is clearly no longer in charge. It's very obvious that Gove was the source of the lockdown leak and Cain was used by Dom and Gove to leak the information. I expect Dom gets canned as the price of Boris not being burned at the Tory stake in February, wonder whether Gove will go with him. He's not to be trusted in any position of power.
The problem is that although I cant stand Gove, he is at least competent as minister and a politician, unlike his cretinous boss
He might be competent but he's not to be trusted and putting him in a position where he has access to important information that can be used against other members of the Cabinet is just asking for trouble.
Is Give competent? He is good at identifying things that don't work, and has creative ideas for solutions. Not all those ideas work, but they are creative. But his claim for competence rests on his time at Education and in the Cabinet Office. He passed through other roles to quickly to tell. And in both cases... Mixed at best.
He created a set of exams more suited to the 1960s than the current day. Now the internet exists, it's not what you know that is important - it's how you find and apply that knowledge...
I'm willing to cut the goblin some slack there. By 2010, modular GCSEs and A Levels weren't working well. The skills often became easily coachable soundbites and the lack of knowledge was inhibiting student's thinking. (You can look everything up, but knowing some facts in a framework is helpful and empowering.) The modular structure was abused by schools, using retake after retake to grind out higher grades. But Gove went too far, too fast and too arrogantly alone, which created loads of problems. Right diagnosis, wrong and poorly managed solution.
Nope, having watched my children suffer them - he created a memory test - not something that adds value and gives me any idea how good people are when it comes to looking at CVs
Mr. Roger, Trump is wealthy, but he's also a political outsider.
If you've seen your factory job shift ten thousand miles east and have a worse job, or none, then being told how great globalisation is may not necessarily be a vote-winner.
Be interesting to see what Biden's response is to the BLM crocodile. Standing up to that nonsense was something Trump got right, and may explain why he got a far higher number of votes than many expected.
It's such a shame that the politics of protecting the indigenous working class in the West from the inequities of globalized capitalism seems to require a good dose of nationalistic xenophobia in order to find success at the ballot box. The upshot of this is it has been hijacked by the Right rather than remaining where it belongs - the Left.
The Left are being punished electorally for not being prepared to get down in the gutter.
The Left are being punished because they don't give a f*ck about the working classes and the latter have wised up. It's why Starmer will face such a tough job.
That is just demonstrably false.
Ok, so please provide the evidence for why it is false? I am genuinely interested to hear.
In the US, the Democrats ran on a programme of spending more on infrastructure and public services, financed by taxes on the wealthy. They want to increase the minimum wage to $15. They want to strengthen labour unions. They want to make sure more of the low paid have good healthcare. They also want to address racial injustices (which disproportionately hurt low income working class Americans). These are all policies designed to improve the lives of the working class. In the UK Labour will run on a similar kind of platform.
There is a lot in the US Democrat proposals that, if it is carried through, would help. As I said to @kinabalu the Democrat activist base has made far more noise and showed far more concern about BLM that it has done about poor people stuck out in the middle of nowhere whose towns have fallen apart as jobs have migrated away and residents die of suicides and opioid overdoses. A bit more on the latter would help.
Re UK Labour, I am less positive.
I actually don't think that the Democrats have made more noise about BLM than about their broader economic programme, but conservatives have tried to portray it that way because it is in line with the quite successful strategy they have been following since Nixon's so called Southern Strategy of playing on white resentment to win working class white votes. I think it is to the Democrats' credit that they haven't allowed those attack lines to prevent them from defending the rights of black Americans, who after all are their most loyal supporters.
The chumocracy leading to the kleptocracy is alive and well with lots of close bonds highlighted, but the link of both live in Islington is exceedingly tenuous, most people in Islington dont know each other!
Cummings, Allegra and - before his divorce - Boris - live within a circle with approx 500m radius.
I think if you explore the private school/Oxbridge/wealth nexus you will probably find it more fruitful. These people all know each other, marry each other, do business with each other. Brexit has always been about the old establishment reasserting themselves, big fish in their small pond.
Not sure I’d assign Brexit as the impulse for this.
It seems to be something inherent to the modern-day Tory Party, which as Perry Anderson points out in his latest magisterial essay on “Ukania” in the NLR, is reverting to rule by Old Etonians after a long period roughing it with grammar school types.
Brexit isn't the impulse, but it is part of the reversion. Grammar school Tories like Heath took us into the EU, Thatcher understood the EU's usefulness even if she distrusted the Germans, and successfully moulded it in a meritocratic free market direction via the Single Market. A continental European colleague explains Brexit as happening when the English upper class realised they'd been priced out of the Chelsea housing market, which seems plausible to me.
Not really true, Eton educated Macmillan was the one who first asked for us to join the Common Market and Eton educated Cameron led the Leave campaign. Grammar school educated Enoch Powell was the earliest and most notable Tory Brexiteer
Sorry, should have been Eton educated Cameron led the Remain campaign.
The Tory pro-European toffs were of the old One Nation variety - the traditional order should be maintained but the upper-crust had a duty to improve the life chances of those less lucky by birth. In contrast, I get the impression that the likes of Rees-Mogg think the end of the peasantry was a decidedly retrograde step.
Lord Salisbury was an Old Etonian, as was Alan Clark, there have always been Old Etonians on the hard right not just the One Nation left of the Tory Party, Rees Mogg is no exception
Like Rees-Mogg, I always felt that Alan Clark wasn't a true aristocrat but a bit of a brash, new-money type. (That his surname suggests his ancestor was Bob Cratchit should have given him a clue.)
Neither Rees-Mogg nor Alan Clark are/were aristocrats in any sense of the term, despite the castles and posing and ludicrous airs they adopt. Clark was rather vulgar really, if a good diarist. Rees-Mogg is simply ludicrous with all his affectations.
As you say, Clark loved to pose, but he was simply living off the back of a cultured father, with almost none of the historical 'position' his pretensions aspired to. Rees-Mogg's background, disappointingly for him, I thought was a mixture of business and west country squire too, turbocharged like Boris by the atmosphere of individualist entitlement of 1980's Eton.
Rees Mogg's mother in law was the daughter of the 8th Earl Fitzwilliam
But his own ancestors were just minor local squires, as I understand it.
Yes, although the Mogg family has owned Cholwell House, a manor house in Cameley, Somerset since 1726
Comments
In every single case RCP forecast more electoral votes for the Republican candidate than 538 did. It's therefore not surprising that in the 2 years that the polls overstated the Dem candidate lead the RCP forecast was better. Nor that in 2012, when the polling average understated the Dem candidate lead, that 538 did better.
In 2008 when the polling average was very close to the actual Dem lead 538 also did better.
Make of that what you will.
(Taking DC as having one equal vote since the 23rd amendment)
...it turns out to be surprisingly close to history.
The only differences would have been (going backwards):
1976 - Carter would have lost to Ford
1960 - Kennedy would have lost to Nixon
1880 - would have been a tie between Garfield and Hancock
1848 - would have been a tie between Zachary Taylor and Lewis Cass
(1824 would just still have been a four-way tie as it was historically)
I was rather surprised at how little difference it made.
Trafalgar polled Trump ahead in Pa, Michigan, and Arizona, all states he lost by reasonable margins.
https://www.radiotimes.com/news/on-demand/2020-11-11/the-mandalorian-baby-yoda-evil/
I actually think this is why the government will target ISAs with some taxes soon, it's become the default investment tool for individual investors so the government misses out on dividend taxes and CGT.
Staff who work from home after pandemic ‘should pay more tax’
https://amp.theguardian.com/business/2020/nov/11/staff-who-work-from-home-after-pandemic-should-pay-more-tax
'How Face Nappies Oppress Us Worse Than The STASI' by Joanna Gumption
There are people who only want 45/1 for Republicans to get 61% + of the popular vote in the Presidential election! I've read the rules carefully and that's what it says.
With Trump becoming more and more of a laughing stock by the the day, the US would have to become another North Korea for some of these bets to go wrong. I'm almost tempted to take out a personal loan for two months.
Progressives -54%
Nicer to know what your fellow citizens think than who may or may not be the government in 4 years
Anything from DB on that one? Thought not.
John McCain RIP must be smiling from above that the state was a razor thin win for Biden and Cindy McCain almost certainly pushed the state into the blue column. Revenge is indeed a dish served cold, even from the grave.
The second Groundhog Day of the last fortnight.
And don't you have to sell shares to get them into an ISA? Which surely triggers CGT. Which is what you want to avoid. On the other hand it does mean one can use up one's allowance annually, tranche by tranche. Albeit at the cost of selling and buying.
In the UK Labour will run on a similar kind of platform.
EOTHO after the vaccine rollout in the Spring would make a lot more sense.
Speaking to Sky News this morning, Mr Sunak said: "We'll talk about specific measures, but more broadly I think it's right when we finally exit this (lockdown) and hopefully next year with testing and vaccines, we'll be able to start to look forward to getting back to normal.
"We'll have to look forward to the economic situation then and see what the best form of our support.
"We want to get consumers spending again, get them out and about, we'll look at a range of things to see what the right interventions are at that time.
Re -heating the virus again seems stupid in the extreme.
Obviously learnt nothing from the summer experience.
The underlying point that Sanders' brand of populism is morally superior to Trump's is also correct too, I think.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1184428/presidential-election-exit-polls-share-votes-income-us/
https://twitter.com/PipsFunFacts/status/1326844098830082049
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8941371/Britains-coronavirus-R-rate-one-0-9-Covid-Symptom-Study-claims.html
But his claim for competence rests on his time at Education and in the Cabinet Office. He passed through other roles to quickly to tell. And in both cases... Mixed at best.
How many people even know the rule that you have to report CGT if you are registered for self assessment and sell assets worth 4x the threshold, regardless of whether you make any profit or even a loss?
In The Sun?
My gast is flabbered.
Re UK Labour, I am less positive.
Trump by contrast did best with higher income voters earning $100 000 - $199,999 in 2020 whereas in 2016 he did best with middle income voters earning $50 000 - $99 999.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html
Alternatively, the report suggests the tax could be paid by employers who do not provide their workforce with a permanent desk.
but it doesn't sound it's like their preferred option.
Only a few weeks ago there was all that nonsense about actors should retrain as ...., Again Sunak didn't say what was being reported, but everybody was in the outrage bus by the evening.
But Gove went too far, too fast and too arrogantly alone, which created loads of problems. Right diagnosis, wrong and poorly managed solution.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cholwell,_Cameley
The headline writer was an idiot and anyone who gets outraged by a Sun headline without checking if it is real first is also an idiot.