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Legendary Republican political strategist, Karl Rove, says the WH2020 outcome will be hard to overtu

SystemSystem Posts: 12,155
edited November 2020 in General
imageLegendary Republican political strategist, Karl Rove, says the WH2020 outcome will be hard to overturn – politicalbetting.com

With the Trump continuing to fight the verdict of voters in last week’s election there’s a warning to the White House from former adviser to Republican presidents and longstanding GOP operative, Karl Rove, about the current en passe.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    AZ is over. I mean, it was already over, but now it's even more over. Counting not over.

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1326726087133581314
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited November 2020
    A bit of #Trump2024 action picking up on the Twitters, seems like they're starting to get the message about 2020.

    Dunno if there was any truth to that leak about him running again or if it was just a good way to orientate him towards the future...
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Decision Desk finally called AZ: https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1326728894339309569
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    OGH, the states only certify they own state's vote, not the total count. If the betting firms are being absolute sticklers, they won't settle this bet until January 6th when the Joint Session of Congress formally counts the EC votes submitted by the states, and certifies that count, as Congress has the ability to throw out EC votes.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,703
    Biden now leads in AZ by 11,635 with a max of 22,456 votes still to count.

    So Trump needs 76.3% of remaining votes.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,703
    edited November 2020
    TimT said:

    OGH, the states only certify they own state's vote, not the total count. If the betting firms are being absolute sticklers, they won't settle this bet until January 6th when the Joint Session of Congress formally counts the EC votes submitted by the states, and certifies that count, as Congress has the ability to throw out EC votes.

    On the face of it, it's lucky for Biden that the Democrats won the House - because EC votes can only be rejected if both the House and Senate vote (separately) to reject them.

    I wonder what might have happened if the Republicans had won the House as well as the Senate? I suspect they would have needed a decent majority - because surely the likes of Collins and Romney would not throw out EC votes. But I fear most other Republicans would.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,703
    What will Stephen Breyer now do?

    If the Dems had won the Senate he surely would have retired - he wouldn't want to repeat RBG's mistake.

    Assuming Dems don't win both GA seats, does he wait two years and hope Dems gain the Senate then? If he retires now he might think Biden can get Collins and Romney's votes - and of course if Dems win one of the GA seats then he would only need one of them.

    But Dems might go backwards in 2022 making it just about impossible for Biden to get anyone through.

    Or if he's in good health does he just sit tight on the basis he's confident of lasting a long time?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,077
    edmundintokyo said:

    AZ is over. I mean, it was already over, but now it's even more over. Counting not over.

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1326726087133581314

    That, by the way, was the best bunch of ballots remaining for Trump. Most of the rest are provisional (skew Democrat) or Pina (skew Democrat).
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,805
    rcs1000 said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    AZ is over. I mean, it was already over, but now it's even more over. Counting not over.

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1326726087133581314

    That, by the way, was the best bunch of ballots remaining for Trump. Most of the rest are provisional (skew Democrat) or Pina (skew Democrat).
    Dem Arizona is 1.09 on Betfair. As with the main markets, there is a question around when Betfair will settle; as per the thread header, Arizona is not due to certify its results till 30 November.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    So Joe Biden will finish on 306.

    And, no, the result won't be overturned. It's a convincing win.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/11/politics/joe-biden-2020-election-win/index.html

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edmundintokyo said:

    Decision Desk finally called AZ: https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1326728894339309569

    Yep. And he has won Georgia.

    So he finishes on 306 ECVs.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    And here's an example of why I cashed out on my 14/1 Rishi Sunak bet:

    https://news.sky.com/story/chancellor-considers-middle-class-tax-raid-to-pay-for-covid-debt-mountain-12130446
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Betfair still haven't settled my Pennsylvania Democrat win.

    Pretty rubbish.


    Still, not as rubbish as Spreadex whose spread betting market was down most of election night, which defeats the point of it. Might as well just stick to sportsbook fixed odds if you're not going to operate a fluid trading floor.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464
    Mysticrose said:

    And here's an example of why I cashed out on my 14/1 Rishi Sunak bet:

    https://news.sky.com/story/chancellor-considers-middle-class-tax-raid-to-pay-for-covid-debt-mountain-12130446

    Chancellors rarely get hammered for tax rises under these circumstances....CGT would affect a small number of core tory voters who hardly have a better alternative. I do think the Tory leadership/PM race could be on at short notice though.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Mysticrose said:

    Betfair still haven't settled my Pennsylvania Democrat win.

    Pretty rubbish.


    Still, not as rubbish as Spreadex whose spread betting market was down most of election night, which defeats the point of it. Might as well just stick to sportsbook fixed odds if you're not going to operate a fluid trading floor.

    Yes. If you're not going to trade what was probably the biggest betting event ever through the night when all the action was happening then why bother.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited November 2020
    I would urge people to exercise caution about Spreadex.

    This is based purely on my recent experience but I was up most of election night and the following day. Spreadex US election market was suspended for most of that time.

    Pretty atrocious really.

    edit. just saw Paul's post below mine: that's 100% right.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,963
    https://twitter.com/acmasey/status/1326727557161607169
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Mysticrose said:

    I would urge people to exercise caution about Spreadex.

    This is based purely on my recent experience but I was up most of election night and the following day. Spreadex US election market was suspended for most of that time.

    Pretty atrocious really.

    edit. just saw Paul's post below mine: that's 100% right.

    I currently have this vision that when I retire I'm going to take the maximum tax free lump sum and load it onto betfair to take advantage of things like Biden popular vote winner @ 1.04. But these opportunities are probably very rare I'm guessing. Plus I havent run this plan by my wife yet.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    paulyork64 said:

    Mysticrose said:

    I would urge people to exercise caution about Spreadex.

    This is based purely on my recent experience but I was up most of election night and the following day. Spreadex US election market was suspended for most of that time.

    Pretty atrocious really.

    edit. just saw Paul's post below mine: that's 100% right.

    Plus I havent run this plan by my wife yet.
    :smiley:
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,974
    https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1326644759193133062
  • MapreaderMapreader Posts: 24
    “En passé” in the lead should surely be “impasse”?
  • MapreaderMapreader Posts: 24
    edmundintokyo said:

    AZ is over. I mean, it was already over, but now it's even more over. Counting not over.

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1326726087133581314

    Big sigh of relief at Fox. With hindsight it probably shouldn’t have called so early.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,743
    edited November 2020
    Mysticrose said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    Decision Desk finally called AZ: https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1326728894339309569

    Yep. And he has won Georgia.

    So he finishes on 306 ECVs.
    Yes. According to the NYT data, in Arizona 17,688 ballots came in over(our)night, in which Trump's share was only 53.3%.

    Biden's current lead is 11,635, and the estimated number of ballots to come is 22,456, which means Trump would need about 75% of the remaining votes to catch up.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,743
    On the Pfizer vaccine - the statement wasn't as clear as it could have been, but the consensus seems to be that when it speaks of more than 90% efficacy, that means that the lower end of a statistical confidence interval is above 90% (not just that they observed only 10% as many infections in the vaccine arm as in the placebo arm of the study).

    If that's correct, it implies that the actual efficacy observed to date would have been more like 95%. Statistically there would be a small probability of the real underlying efficacy being less than 90%. But equally it could be above 95%.

    This is certainly above Pfizer's own expectations, because the illustrative statistical calculations in the published protocol covered various possible efficacies, but the highest possibility considered was only 80%.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,774
    15,5% growth in Q3. That's not bad although it still leaves us down. It may be that the 10% down on the year assumption is a little pessimistic.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Mapreader said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    AZ is over. I mean, it was already over, but now it's even more over. Counting not over.

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1326726087133581314

    Big sigh of relief at Fox. With hindsight it probably shouldn’t have called so early.
    Never in doubt.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2020
    As far as I can tell Alaska have not released any more votes. The swines.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Oh, no they have, their website is just heavily cached.

    Biden's ratio has now gone backwards, he's only winning the mail 58/38 (closer to where I thought he would end up)

    HE now needs to win the remaining postal vote *checks notes* 88%-to-8% to win.

    I'm going to go out on a limb here and call Alaska for Trump.

    Not so tentatively I call it 180,000 Trump to 145,000 Biden votes.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,757
    So if we would have interpreted a Cummings exit as signalling a Brexit compromise deal, should we treat him staying as meaning that no deal is more likely?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,963
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1326789419718864896
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Just as well the old don’t vote Tory.....

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/11/11/row-within-tory-party-vaccine-distribution-hawks-suggest-workers/
  • MapreaderMapreader Posts: 24
    Is there a job description for PM’s fiancée?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,595
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    So if we would have interpreted a Cummings exit as signalling a Brexit compromise deal, should we treat him staying as meaning that no deal is more likely?

    I don't think Cummings is a No Dealer so much as a game theory enthusiast in way over his head. If it is No Deal it is more because of incompetence than planning.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,406
    Morning, ladies and gentlemen. A better looking one here in Essex.

    One there news of the morning, did I read last night that Frost is possibly resigning? If so, where would that leave the Brexit negotiations?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,392
    Good summary of US post election, worth reading


    https://sluggerotoole.com/2020/11/09/joe-bidens-administration-now-needs-to-ask-the-obvious-question-how-do-we-fix-this-sht/
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,406
    Mapreader said:

    Is there a job description for PM’s fiancée?

    Er........
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,595
    Looks like the Trumpites are not believed by the US people. Once again Social Media gives skewed opinion to the extremists.

    https://twitter.com/SimonMAtkinson/status/1326445145521262592?s=19
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,913
    Alistair said:

    Oh, no they have, their website is just heavily cached.

    Biden's ratio has now gone backwards, he's only winning the mail 58/38 (closer to where I thought he would end up)

    HE now needs to win the remaining postal vote *checks notes* 88%-to-8% to win.

    I'm going to go out on a limb here and call Alaska for Trump.

    Not so tentatively I call it 180,000 Trump to 145,000 Biden votes.

    For Alaska that' very good for Biden.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Does the vaccine come with a free viagra sample?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,595
    Mapreader said:

    Is there a job description for PM’s fiancée?

    Blonde, pneumatic and willing to cuckold existing fiancé?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,776
    Question for those amongst you who know.

    I gather each party in each state nominates it's EC voters. And the winning party in each state puts forward it's votes. If I have that right that seems straight forward for Biden.

    Who makes the formal decision as to who won in each state? I assume it is the equivalent of our returning officer. In which case where is there any risk in Trump being able to corrupt the ECV?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,392
    Foxy said:

    Mapreader said:

    Is there a job description for PM’s fiancée?

    Blonde, pneumatic and willing to cuckold existing fiancé?
    How very Francois Hollande,

    you should be happy with Bojo's continental affinities
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,805
    paulyork64 said:

    Mysticrose said:

    I would urge people to exercise caution about Spreadex.

    This is based purely on my recent experience but I was up most of election night and the following day. Spreadex US election market was suspended for most of that time.

    Pretty atrocious really.

    edit. just saw Paul's post below mine: that's 100% right.

    I currently have this vision that when I retire I'm going to take the maximum tax free lump sum and load it onto betfair to take advantage of things like Biden popular vote winner @ 1.04. But these opportunities are probably very rare I'm guessing. Plus I havent run this plan by my wife yet.
    It depends how good your judgement is. Imagine betting a horse race in-running or a football match in play. Each will have a point close to the end when the price is 1.04.

    In this case, Betfair might not settle until all the states have finished counting and have certified the results in three weeks' time (based on this thread's header). If you have tied up your stake on the PV bet, great, you will win, but maybe you would win more in these other markets or buying Big Pharma shares.

    I'm not trying to put you off your retirement plan, but to try to explain why you can still get 1.04 on a stone cold certainty.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,963
    nichomar said:

    Does the vaccine come with a free viagra sample?


  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,280
    Foxy said:

    Looks like the Trumpites are not believed by the US people. Once again Social Media gives skewed opinion to the extremists.

    https://twitter.com/SimonMAtkinson/status/1326445145521262592?s=19

    That's really encouraging to see. 1.1 on Biden looks a steal.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,864
    Mysticrose said:

    So Joe Biden will finish on 306.

    And, no, the result won't be overturned. It's a convincing win.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/11/politics/joe-biden-2020-election-win/index.html

    Thanks. Interesting article. No need to read anything more.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Mapreader said:

    Is there a job description for PM’s fiancée?

    💖 Have zero self esteem
    💖 Be able to do cartwheels in a thong
    💖 Be a solid 6/10 (London over 30s division)
    💖 Keen interest in environmental and animal welfare issues
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    So if we would have interpreted a Cummings exit as signalling a Brexit compromise deal, should we treat him staying as meaning that no deal is more likely?

    No.

    I would have interpreted Cummings and Frost going as a BINO deal.

    We should treat them staying as a compromise deal which is what should always be the most likely scenario.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,297
    edited November 2020
    Cool, cool. None of these people are elected, totally cool.

    https://twitter.com/lionelbarber/status/1326663466455883776?s=21
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,963
    https://twitter.com/RossMcCaff/status/1326658079438614531
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Foxy said:

    Looks like the Trumpites are not believed by the US people. Once again Social Media gives skewed opinion to the extremists.

    https://twitter.com/SimonMAtkinson/status/1326445145521262592?s=19

    Considering the general rule that any polling option should always get at least 3% (except perhaps the Lib Dems) that is very good.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,864
    edited November 2020
    Dura_Ace said:

    Mapreader said:

    Is there a job description for PM’s fiancée?

    💖 Have zero self esteem
    💖 Be able to do cartwheels in a thong
    💖 Be a solid 6/10 (London over 30s division)
    💖 Keen interest in environmental and animal welfare issues
    There might be a recount on 3
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,743
    kjh said:

    Question for those amongst you who know.

    I gather each party in each state nominates it's EC voters. And the winning party in each state puts forward it's votes. If I have that right that seems straight forward for Biden.

    Who makes the formal decision as to who won in each state? I assume it is the equivalent of our returning officer. In which case where is there any risk in Trump being able to corrupt the ECV?

    I think it's one thing for the Republicans to say "The president should be able to explore all legal avenues", but very different for them to connive at a treasonable attempt to subvert a clear result after legal challenges have failed. It just isn't going to happen.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited November 2020
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Foxy said:

    Looks like the Trumpites are not believed by the US people. Once again Social Media gives skewed opinion to the extremists.

    https://twitter.com/SimonMAtkinson/status/1326445145521262592?s=19

    Considering the general rule that any polling option should always get at least 3% (except perhaps the Lib Dems) that is very good.
    Sounds extremely suspicious to me. Especially with the other contradictory polling around.

    If this poll really did reflect the reality, then GOP politicians wouldn't be scrambling over themselves to keep their heads down. And would be taking serious flack for failing to accelerate the transition process.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,963
    https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1326795232239902720
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,805
    edited November 2020
    kjh said:

    Question for those amongst you who know.

    I gather each party in each state nominates it's EC voters. And the winning party in each state puts forward it's votes. If I have that right that seems straight forward for Biden.

    Who makes the formal decision as to who won in each state? I assume it is the equivalent of our returning officer. In which case where is there any risk in Trump being able to corrupt the ECV?

    Yes, a very slight risk that if the Republicans can persuade the courts to set aside the election in a particular state, or to order a recount that will take too long, then it will fall to politicians in that state to select their electoral college delegates.

    But this is not a realistic risk any more. Biden won too many states, and by too many votes. It is not like Bush vs Gore in 2000 when a single large state, Florida, swung the whole election on just 500 votes.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/RossMcCaff/status/1326658079438614531

    That's a very good point and explains perhaps the hyperbolic reaction by some of the press last night.

    I wonder if quite often in the past "Downing Street sources" was perhaps not Cummings and was this guys afterall.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,743
    Scott_xP said:

    nichomar said:

    Does the vaccine come with a free viagra sample?


    Another reason that 90%+ efficacy for Pfizer - and hopefully the rest - is encouraging, is that it makes it unlikely that even Boris Johnson can cock it up. He and his nepotistically chosen, unqualified, idiotic appointees.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,776
    kjh said:

    Question for those amongst you who know.

    I gather each party in each state nominates it's EC voters. And the winning party in each state puts forward it's votes. If I have that right that seems straight forward for Biden.

    Who makes the formal decision as to who won in each state? I assume it is the equivalent of our returning officer. In which case where is there any risk in Trump being able to corrupt the ECV?

    It would have helped if I had read the article before posting that comment wouldn't it?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,805
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Cool, cool. None of these people are elected, totally cool.

    https://twitter.com/lionelbarber/status/1326663466455883776?s=21

    Get over it. Advisors have never been elected, if they were they'd be MPs and they'd have their own advisors who would be unelected and repeat ad nauseum.

    Every PM throughout all of history (and every monarch before then) has had unelected advisors.
    Not with direct power over the Civil Service, they haven't.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,805
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/RossMcCaff/status/1326658079438614531

    That's a very good point and explains perhaps the hyperbolic reaction by some of the press last night.

    I wonder if quite often in the past "Downing Street sources" was perhaps not Cummings and was this guys afterall.
    Talking to the press was basically this guy's job description.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    alex_ said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Foxy said:

    Looks like the Trumpites are not believed by the US people. Once again Social Media gives skewed opinion to the extremists.

    https://twitter.com/SimonMAtkinson/status/1326445145521262592?s=19

    Considering the general rule that any polling option should always get at least 3% (except perhaps the Lib Dems) that is very good.
    Sounds extremely suspicious to me. Especially with the other contradictory polling around.

    If this poll really did reflect the reality, then GOP politicians wouldn't be scrambling over themselves to keep their heads down. And would be taking serious flack for failing to accelerate the transition process.
    Most do seem to be keeping their heads down.

    And no accelerating the transition process wins no votes (except perhaps for the Collins/Murkowski wing of the party). The 3% that believe Trump won may be eccentric but they will also be much more likely to be primary voters so why give them ammunition?

    If you're a Republican worried about the next primary season the safest thing to do is in cricket terms to play it with a dead bat, mumbling something about how it isn't confirmed and the legal process needs to play out - without doing anything to interfere in that legal process.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,864
    Foxy said:

    Looks like the Trumpites are not believed by the US people. Once again Social Media gives skewed opinion to the extremists.

    https://twitter.com/SimonMAtkinson/status/1326445145521262592?s=19

    So we can expect the full humiliation before the week-end is over.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,297
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Cool, cool. None of these people are elected, totally cool.

    https://twitter.com/lionelbarber/status/1326663466455883776?s=21

    Get over it. Advisors have never been elected, if they were they'd be MPs and they'd have their own advisors who would be unelected and repeat ad nauseum.

    Every PM throughout all of history (and every monarch before then) has had unelected advisors.
    But not, in modern political times, so much as this one. Boris’s MO is to appoint unaccountable chums and blood relations to key positions.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/RossMcCaff/status/1326658079438614531

    That's a very good point and explains perhaps the hyperbolic reaction by some of the press last night.

    I wonder if quite often in the past "Downing Street sources" was perhaps not Cummings and was this guys afterall.
    Talking to the press was basically this guy's job description.
    Of course.

    There's a difference between on the record legitimate briefings and off the record leaking ones though.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    Looks like the Trumpites are not believed by the US people. Once again Social Media gives skewed opinion to the extremists.

    https://twitter.com/SimonMAtkinson/status/1326445145521262592?s=19

    So we can expect the full humiliation before the week-end is over.
    If he wants to drag this out as long as possible the last realistic date is 14 December.

    After that it will just get even more humiliating.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    https://twitter.com/RossMcCaff/status/1326658738682540032
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,963
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1326798003135459328
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,963
    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1326798308388573184
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,974
    .
    TimT said:

    OGH, the states only certify they own state's vote, not the total count. If the betting firms are being absolute sticklers, they won't settle this bet until January 6th when the Joint Session of Congress formally counts the EC votes submitted by the states, and certifies that count, as Congress has the ability to throw out EC votes.

    Do not Betfair's terms referent to 'projected' EVs ?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,888
    nichomar said:

    Does the vaccine come with a free viagra sample?

    Would you *like* it to come with a free Viagra sample...?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,657
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1326798308388573184

    Is it though? Or is this a massive proxy war for which level of shit deal Rasputin allows the PM to negotiate finally in the wee hours later this month?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited November 2020
    Nigelb said:

    .

    TimT said:

    OGH, the states only certify they own state's vote, not the total count. If the betting firms are being absolute sticklers, they won't settle this bet until January 6th when the Joint Session of Congress formally counts the EC votes submitted by the states, and certifies that count, as Congress has the ability to throw out EC votes.

    Do not Betfair's terms referent to 'projected' EVs ?
    It does indeed but its up to Betfair themselves to interpret that.

    If Trump is still claiming he's going to win the EC votes and people are still betting on Trump in the exchange then Betfair may decide they want the commission on the extra bets the issue isn't settled yet.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,963
    rottenborough said:

    Is it though? Or is this a massive proxy war for which level of shit deal Rasputin allows the PM to negotiate finally in the wee hours later this month?

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1326799533679013890
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rottenborough said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1326798308388573184

    Is it though? Or is this a massive proxy war for which level of shit deal Rasputin allows the PM to negotiate finally in the wee hours later this month?
    I don't think so from the look of it, considering only one person has gone.

    Looks like one ambitious individual sought a promotion, had it denied, and flounced as a result. In any other sector that would not be newsworthy.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,864
    alex_ said:

    https://twitter.com/RossMcCaff/status/1326658738682540032

    Peston has lost it. He really has
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,657
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    Looks like the Trumpites are not believed by the US people. Once again Social Media gives skewed opinion to the extremists.

    https://twitter.com/SimonMAtkinson/status/1326445145521262592?s=19

    So we can expect the full humiliation before the week-end is over.
    If he wants to drag this out as long as possible the last realistic date is 14 December.

    After that it will just get even more humiliating.
    As I think I've posted before, the optics of being dragged out of WH by secret service might play well with his base. The fighter, raging to the end to stop the child killings and all that...

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Roger said:

    alex_ said:

    https://twitter.com/RossMcCaff/status/1326658738682540032

    Peston has lost it. He really has
    Peston would have had to have it, in order to lose it.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,297
    The reason the turf wars are so intense is that Boris is not really in full control himself. These people are playing for more than just “backroom” jobs.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rottenborough said:



    Philip_Thompson said:

    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    Looks like the Trumpites are not believed by the US people. Once again Social Media gives skewed opinion to the extremists.

    https://twitter.com/SimonMAtkinson/status/1326445145521262592?s=19

    So we can expect the full humiliation before the week-end is over.
    If he wants to drag this out as long as possible the last realistic date is 14 December.

    After that it will just get even more humiliating.
    As I think I've posted before, the optics of being dragged out of WH by secret service might play well with his base. The fighter, raging to the end to stop the child killings and all that...

    I still think the simplest explanation is that he is both throwing a tantrum and seeking to raise money from his supporters.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,805
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Roger said:

    alex_ said:

    https://twitter.com/RossMcCaff/status/1326658738682540032

    Peston has lost it. He really has
    Peston would have had to have it, in order to lose it.
    Surely Cummings resigning would indeed have been a defining moment, as Peston said.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    RochdalePioneers said:

    nichomar said:

    Does the vaccine come with a free viagra sample?

    Would you *like* it to come with a free Viagra sample...?
    I’ve enough complications a one off ‘surprise’ could heighten expectations and my bottle would get in the way!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,657
    edited November 2020
    Telegraph quotes a former big pharma director who says Pfizer's vaccine will not be widely used as soon as another vaccine come along.

    Accusations of share price bumping.

  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,913
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Roger said:

    alex_ said:

    https://twitter.com/RossMcCaff/status/1326658738682540032

    Peston has lost it. He really has
    Peston would have had to have it, in order to lose it.
    Leaving Peston aside, is there anything beyond scrabbling for control of a few advisors?
    Could the ending of the transition period with no deal is sight have anything to do with it?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,406
    I was struck that Telegraph says this, according the Beeb; One of Boris Johnson's most senior advisers resigned after losing "a highly public power struggle" with the prime minister's fiancee, Carrie Symonds.

    And the picture it posts of Johnson at the Abbey is far, far from flattering.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,189
    alex_ said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Foxy said:

    Looks like the Trumpites are not believed by the US people. Once again Social Media gives skewed opinion to the extremists.

    https://twitter.com/SimonMAtkinson/status/1326445145521262592?s=19

    Considering the general rule that any polling option should always get at least 3% (except perhaps the Lib Dems) that is very good.
    Sounds extremely suspicious to me. Especially with the other contradictory polling around.

    If this poll really did reflect the reality, then GOP politicians wouldn't be scrambling over themselves to keep their heads down. And would be taking serious flack for failing to accelerate the transition process.

    Which contradictory polling? I've seen polling showing lots of people don't think the election was free and fair. Now, if a pollster asked me that question, I might well honestly answer "no" - although "free and fair" is always a matter of degree there's plenty of evidence of Republican voter suppression. In fact, maybe the main reason I would answer "yes" to a pollster would be to avoid giving any ammunition to the Trumpites trying to steal the election.

    But if you ask me who won the election I would definitely say "Biden".

    Now it's also possible Republican voters think the election wasn't "free and fair" and also think that Biden won. Just like I think Trump won the 2016 election, which wasn't especially free or fair imo.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,864
    CarlottaVance said:

    Just as well the old don’t vote Tory.....

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/11/11/row-within-tory-party-vaccine-distribution-hawks-suggest-workers/

    Poor old Johnson. He's assuming the gait Gordon Brown had shortly before the end.

    The bewildered look.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,240
    Philip_Thompson said:

    rottenborough said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1326798308388573184

    Is it though? Or is this a massive proxy war for which level of shit deal Rasputin allows the PM to negotiate finally in the wee hours later this month?
    I don't think so from the look of it, considering only one person has gone.

    Looks like one ambitious individual sought a promotion, had it denied, and flounced as a result. In any other sector that would not be newsworthy.
    No 10's communications have hardly set the world on fire during the pandemic. Seems best that he goes.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    rottenborough said:



    Philip_Thompson said:

    Roger said:

    Foxy said:

    Looks like the Trumpites are not believed by the US people. Once again Social Media gives skewed opinion to the extremists.

    https://twitter.com/SimonMAtkinson/status/1326445145521262592?s=19

    So we can expect the full humiliation before the week-end is over.
    If he wants to drag this out as long as possible the last realistic date is 14 December.

    After that it will just get even more humiliating.
    As I think I've posted before, the optics of being dragged out of WH by secret service might play well with his base. The fighter, raging to the end to stop the child killings and all that...

    I'm not sure they'd even do that, Biden's team is WFH anyhow so maybe they'd just set up a security cordon to prevent anyone going into the White House, turn off the power and wait for him to come out of his own accord...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,974
    edited November 2020
    Alanbrooke said:


    Good summary of US post election, worth reading
    https://sluggerotoole.com/2020/11/09/joe-bidens-administration-now-needs-to-ask-the-obvious-question-how-do-we-fix-this-sht/

    So he's effectively suggesting a New Deal (it will be a Green New Deal, but we don't have to call it that), rebranded as postwar rebuilding, and funded by debt/quantitive easing.

    Might just work.


  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,987
    edited November 2020
    rottenborough said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1326798308388573184

    Is it though? Or is this a massive proxy war for which level of shit deal Rasputin allows the PM to negotiate finally in the wee hours later this month?
    It seems Lee Cain's job was put to the sword by four women

    Carrie Symonds, Allegra Stratton, Munira Mirza and Priti Patel all joined together to see him off

    It looks as if Cumming's influence is on the way out as well so all in all well done the ladies
  • eekeek Posts: 28,356
    rottenborough said:

    Telegraph quotes a former big pharma director who says Pfizer's vaccine will not be widely used as soon as another vaccine come along.

    Accusations of share price bumping.

    I suspect all of it is right except the share price bumping bit - As RCS1000 stated yesterday Pfizer has a duty of reporting the news as quickly as possible the share price bump is due to people's reaction to that not the news itself.

    And the easiest to deliver and administer vaccine will eventually win out - but until multiple vaccines are available Pfizer wins.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    alex_ said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Foxy said:

    Looks like the Trumpites are not believed by the US people. Once again Social Media gives skewed opinion to the extremists.

    https://twitter.com/SimonMAtkinson/status/1326445145521262592?s=19

    Considering the general rule that any polling option should always get at least 3% (except perhaps the Lib Dems) that is very good.
    Sounds extremely suspicious to me. Especially with the other contradictory polling around.

    If this poll really did reflect the reality, then GOP politicians wouldn't be scrambling over themselves to keep their heads down. And would be taking serious flack for failing to accelerate the transition process.
    GOP primary voters will be predominantly in that 13%+3%. Even the ones who think Biden won will remember who was and wasn't on their side.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,297
    edited November 2020
    If I understand correctly, Britain’s Q3 ‘19 to Q3 ‘20 performance is the worst in Europe.

    Sick man at the helm; sick man of Europe once more.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,757
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1326798308388573184

    It's what happens when the government is run by journalists and PR people. They thrive on this kind of soap opera crap and are too trivial and indisciplined to have a real understanding of the substantive issues.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,864
    JohnLilburne said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    rottenborough said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1326798308388573184

    Is it though? Or is this a massive proxy war for which level of shit deal Rasputin allows the PM to negotiate finally in the wee hours later this month?
    I don't think so from the look of it, considering only one person has gone.

    Looks like one ambitious individual sought a promotion, had it denied, and flounced as a result. In any other sector that would not be newsworthy.
    No 10's communications have hardly set the world on fire during the pandemic. Seems best that he goes.
    Time to get Steve Hilton back. He's the sort of louche man without principle that could hold Johnson's back room team together right now.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,009
    We are all used to the Daily Mail trying to convince us that someone on £100k is on an average income. Sky News have gone one better. They have an article on capital gains tax with the headline:

    'Chancellor considers middle class tax raid to pay for pandemic debt mountain'

    Within the article is the sentence:

    'Only 0.5% of the population paid capital gains tax in 2017-18.'

    Yep. That's the squeezed middle alright.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,649
    The raw politics of what happened in Downing Street last night is that the Prime Minister wanted Lee Cain to be his chief of staff and was overruled. That tells you a hell of a lot about Boris Johnson and his leadership.
This discussion has been closed.