It shouldn’t be long before WH2020 bets are settled – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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I don't think Trump ever had a genuine friend in the commonly understood use of the word.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
They fell out a while ago, didn't they?
Trump really needs those who have stuck with him because they believe he has the right policy solutions (and perhaps because they like the man) to show genuine concern at this stage over his mental health and legacy, and his impact on trust in US democracy.
Unfortunately, his pattern over the past four years has been to dump all those people for cynical "yes" men who are in it purely for their own careers (including access to the right wing news circuit, endorsement and money). If he had real friends or people wanting to give wise counsel, they have probably all long gone (or possibly Ivanka is the last woman standing - nobody else in the inner circle, older sons included, gives two sh1ts about the bloke).
It's all terribly sad in a way (although his own fault). He's the mega-lottery winner or football star who dumped his genuine friends in favour of fake ones, who will simply leach off him until he is a dry husk, then f*** off.
Ivanka still plugging away, I see.
https://twitter.com/IvankaTrump/status/1325808239737495554
While it's fair to give his administration some credit for very large scale vaccine funding, in this case she's as inaccurate as ever.
https://twitter.com/Chrisann415/status/1325808424962158595
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He suggested parts of Strathclyde and the Lowlands could be partitioned from the rest of Scotland and remain in the UK back in 2013 even if Scots voted Yes as those areas would likely still vote No, I do not necessarily agree but given some Remainers have pushed independence for Yes voting Scotland and NI from a Leave voting UK I do not see there is much difference between the 2 arguments and saying the No voting Scottish Borders should remain in the UK post a hypothetical Scottish vote for independenceNigelb said:
Is he the looney that wants to partition Scotland if they vote for independence ?Scott_xP said:
https://www.anphoblacht.com/contents/226720 -
It's particularly good news as it indicates that vaccines targeting the spike protein can be very effective.rcs1000 said:
Oops. You're right.Chris said:
Moderna is mRNA, but the Oxford vaccine is a vector.rcs1000 said:
Trump is going to be p1ssed.OnboardG1 said:For anyone who thinks Pfizer sat on the results: Didn't quite happen like that. They initially planned a 32 person interim review (ie when 32 people across the whole trial had covid) for the end of October which would have told them if the vaccine was effective, but regulators criticized that as being a bit premature. They agreed with the FDA to do a 64 person interim review and by the time the independent review team had done the unblinding they had 94 cases to work with. Still a fair bit of research to do to close the confidence intervals on the final effectiveness but it looks pretty damned solid.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/09/covid-19-vaccine-from-pfizer-and-biontech-is-strongly-effective-early-data-from-large-trial-indicate/
But this is great news because:
(1) It indicates other messenger RNA vaccines (like AZN/Oxford) are likely to work
Fortunate, as that describes most of the vaccines in development.0 -
I know it isn't your main point but some people might work very hard to become middle managers at Wal-Mart and be very proud of getting there.OnboardG1 said:
His male spawn (with the exception of Barron who, fortunately, isn't old enough quite yet to have become like his brothers) are the ultimate failsons. They are utterly useless leeches who are an embarrasment and a waste of the hideously expensive education lavished on them. In a just world they'd be middle managers at Wal-Mart.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
They fell out a while ago, didn't they?HYUFD said:
Trump really needs those who have stuck with him because they believe he has the right policy solutions (and perhaps because they like the man) to show genuine concern at this stage over his mental health and legacy, and his impact on trust in US democracy.
Unfortunately, his pattern over the past four years has been to dump all those people for cynical "yes" men who are in it purely for their own careers (including access to the right wing news circuit, endorsement and money). If he had real friends or people wanting to give wise counsel, they have probably all long gone (or possibly Ivanka is the last woman standing - nobody else in the inner circle, older sons included, gives two sh1ts about the bloke).
It's all terribly sad in a way (although his own fault). He's the mega-lottery winner or football star who dumped his genuine friends in favour of fake ones, who will simply leach off him until he is a dry husk, then f*** off.1 -
Parliamentary Constituencies Bill - Govt proposing to reverse all Lords amendments in Commons tomorrow.0
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What's going on on Betfair - Trump now in to 16 for next President.0
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For a large State with a low population what they do makes a lot of sense. Count the in-person votes and then wait a week or so for all the postals to come in and count them all together. Keeps costs down, all nice and clear.Alistair said:
I dearly hope you lose that bet!Quincel said:I've got a bet on Trump winning Alaska and by the time it settles the AER% on my profit will be worse than a bank account. Do they have some principled objection to vote counting?
Not out of animosity but out of avarice.
They start counting postals tomorrow. In reality you are very safe but probably not as safe as you thought when you put the bet on.
I think your bet will come in but as odds on shots go I don't think it's especially good value.0 -
Actually I don't think she is being inaccurate...they didn't get Warp speed money for development (but that isn't what she claimed), she said because of Warp speed the funding will be there to guarantee large scale production and delivery, which isn't untrue.Nigelb said:
I don't think Trump ever had a genuine friend in the commonly understood use of the word.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
They fell out a while ago, didn't they?
Trump really needs those who have stuck with him because they believe he has the right policy solutions (and perhaps because they like the man) to show genuine concern at this stage over his mental health and legacy, and his impact on trust in US democracy.
Unfortunately, his pattern over the past four years has been to dump all those people for cynical "yes" men who are in it purely for their own careers (including access to the right wing news circuit, endorsement and money). If he had real friends or people wanting to give wise counsel, they have probably all long gone (or possibly Ivanka is the last woman standing - nobody else in the inner circle, older sons included, gives two sh1ts about the bloke).
It's all terribly sad in a way (although his own fault). He's the mega-lottery winner or football star who dumped his genuine friends in favour of fake ones, who will simply leach off him until he is a dry husk, then f*** off.
Ivanka still plugging away, I see.
twitter.com/IvankaTrump/status/1325808239737495554
While it's fair to give his administration some credit for very large scale vaccine funding, in this case she's as inaccurate as ever.
twitter.com/Chrisann415/status/1325808424962158595
"Operation Warp Speed, the federal effort to rush a vaccine to market, has promised Pfizer $1.95 billion to deliver 100 million doses to the federal government, which will be given to Americans free of charge."
She is smarter than her Dad. That tweet can be quickly read one way, but it doesn't quite say what you might first think it says.0 -
after biden?MikeL said:What's going on on Betfair - Trump now in to 16 for next President.
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Certainly a case where governments should simply nationalize the disputed IP if there's any question.Beibheirli_C said:
I understand the IP issues involved, but is this really the time to get into protracted legal disputes over licencing? Seriously - people are dying, economies are being crippled, etc etc.SouthamObserver said:We've done a write-up of the IP issues surrounding the roll-out of Pfizer's covid-19 vaccine:
https://www.iam-media.com/coronavirus/pfizers-covid-vaccine-found-90-effective-raises-ip-questions
If ever there was a case for "sort it out later" this is surely it?2 -
They should put Hunter on there anyway, just for a laugh!Alistair said:1 -
We should know pretty soon, once Pfizer has analysed all the samples and published results. I'd guess it will stop most being infectious, FWIW.MaxPB said:
I'm working on the assumption of the vaccine not stopping people being infectious, just stopping symptoms.rcs1000 said:
Oh, it's much more encouraging than that.MaxPB said:Of the vaccine is 94% effective in preventing symptoms that means with 100% vaccination only 6% of people get symptoms and at a 0.5-1% CFR the upper ceiling on deaths in the UK would be somewhere around 16k-33k. I'd class that as acceptable and just open everything back up again.
We can target the 5% of people most likely to pass it on first - medical staff and care home workers. Because your personal R is different from the population R. Target the high R population, and the medically vulnerable population, and you reduce the likely impact of the disease pretty quickly.
If AZN/Oxford works as well as Pfizer (which we don't know), *and* we get contracted doses on time (30m AZN by end of year, 10m Pfizer), then it's quite possible that the most vulnerable and most likely to transmit are all vaccinated by Easter. Most restrictions can then be lifted, and the rest of us can then get in line, and expect to be vaccinated in the following 12 months.0 -
I am indeed, just being introduced to it, very funnydixiedean said:
You're on the early series. 1 or 2.MrEd said:
I was thinking more Schitt's Creek where the son ends up bagging the groceriesOnboardG1 said:
His male spawn (with the exception of Barron who, fortunately, isn't old enough quite yet to have become like his brothers) are the ultimate failsons. They are utterly useless leeches who are an embarrasment and a waste of the hideously expensive education lavished on them. In a just world they'd be middle managers at Wal-Mart.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
They fell out a while ago, didn't they?HYUFD said:
Trump really needs those who have stuck with him because they believe he has the right policy solutions (and perhaps because they like the man) to show genuine concern at this stage over his mental health and legacy, and his impact on trust in US democracy.
Unfortunately, his pattern over the past four years has been to dump all those people for cynical "yes" men who are in it purely for their own careers (including access to the right wing news circuit, endorsement and money). If he had real friends or people wanting to give wise counsel, they have probably all long gone (or possibly Ivanka is the last woman standing - nobody else in the inner circle, older sons included, gives two sh1ts about the bloke).
It's all terribly sad in a way (although his own fault). He's the mega-lottery winner or football star who dumped his genuine friends in favour of fake ones, who will simply leach off him until he is a dry husk, then f*** off.1 -
Probably mentioned already but Ladbrokes has paid out on the election winnerSandpit said:Still don’t see Betfair setting anything until all results are properly certified and there’s no chance of any further challenges. They’re just a broker, have customers on both sides and will be risk-averse in calling anything.
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I doubt it pays enough.BluestBlue said:
They should put Hunter on there anyway, just for a laugh!Alistair said:0 -
I see Kate Bingham has now finalised the order of priority for vaccination:
(1) Members of the government and their spouses
(2) Older adults in a care home and care home workers
(3) Workers in the the vital financial services industry
(4) All those aged 80 and over
(5) Health and social care workers, but only if there's enough left
(6) We'll think about the others in 20222 -
You're right, that is rather unfair of me, and running a Wal-Mart isn't really a non-job. Perhaps the accountant at a seedy adult bookstore in Philly would be more appropriate?paulyork64 said:
I know it isn't your main point but some people might work very hard to become middle managers at Wal-Mart and be very proud of getting there.OnboardG1 said:
His male spawn (with the exception of Barron who, fortunately, isn't old enough quite yet to have become like his brothers) are the ultimate failsons. They are utterly useless leeches who are an embarrasment and a waste of the hideously expensive education lavished on them. In a just world they'd be middle managers at Wal-Mart.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
They fell out a while ago, didn't they?HYUFD said:
Trump really needs those who have stuck with him because they believe he has the right policy solutions (and perhaps because they like the man) to show genuine concern at this stage over his mental health and legacy, and his impact on trust in US democracy.
Unfortunately, his pattern over the past four years has been to dump all those people for cynical "yes" men who are in it purely for their own careers (including access to the right wing news circuit, endorsement and money). If he had real friends or people wanting to give wise counsel, they have probably all long gone (or possibly Ivanka is the last woman standing - nobody else in the inner circle, older sons included, gives two sh1ts about the bloke).
It's all terribly sad in a way (although his own fault). He's the mega-lottery winner or football star who dumped his genuine friends in favour of fake ones, who will simply leach off him until he is a dry husk, then f*** off.0 -
Yes, but the important thing is not to get everyone immunised immediately, but to have an effective roll out that slows down the rate of infection through a reduction in r-rate. Even if only 20% of the population were immunised this would greatly reduce infection, and if it is targeted at vulnerable groups the pressure on healthcare systems is massively reduced, and the whole pandemic becomes massively more manageable.CarlottaVance said:So that's 5.5 million aged 75+, or working in Care Homes:
https://twitter.com/LordRic52/status/1325777443253260288?s=20
And given the priority list is:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1325776285860245504?s=20
There's the first batch (10 million doses, 2 per patient) of Pfixer vaccine accounted for. Slightly surprised that "NHS clinical staff" not on the priority list....0 -
I thought the Pfizer trial didn't include any testing of those without symptoms.Nigelb said:
We should know pretty soon, once Pfizer has analysed all the samples and published results. I'd guess it will stop most being infectious, FWIW.MaxPB said:
I'm working on the assumption of the vaccine not stopping people being infectious, just stopping symptoms.rcs1000 said:
Oh, it's much more encouraging than that.MaxPB said:Of the vaccine is 94% effective in preventing symptoms that means with 100% vaccination only 6% of people get symptoms and at a 0.5-1% CFR the upper ceiling on deaths in the UK would be somewhere around 16k-33k. I'd class that as acceptable and just open everything back up again.
We can target the 5% of people most likely to pass it on first - medical staff and care home workers. Because your personal R is different from the population R. Target the high R population, and the medically vulnerable population, and you reduce the likely impact of the disease pretty quickly.
If AZN/Oxford works as well as Pfizer (which we don't know), *and* we get contracted doses on time (30m AZN by end of year, 10m Pfizer), then it's quite possible that the most vulnerable and most likely to transmit are all vaccinated by Easter. Most restrictions can then be lifted, and the rest of us can then get in line, and expect to be vaccinated in the following 12 months.0 -
OK. No spoilers then. Except to say it gets even better.MrEd said:
I am indeed, just being introduced to it, very funnydixiedean said:
You're on the early series. 1 or 2.MrEd said:
I was thinking more Schitt's Creek where the son ends up bagging the groceriesOnboardG1 said:
His male spawn (with the exception of Barron who, fortunately, isn't old enough quite yet to have become like his brothers) are the ultimate failsons. They are utterly useless leeches who are an embarrasment and a waste of the hideously expensive education lavished on them. In a just world they'd be middle managers at Wal-Mart.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
They fell out a while ago, didn't they?HYUFD said:
Trump really needs those who have stuck with him because they believe he has the right policy solutions (and perhaps because they like the man) to show genuine concern at this stage over his mental health and legacy, and his impact on trust in US democracy.
Unfortunately, his pattern over the past four years has been to dump all those people for cynical "yes" men who are in it purely for their own careers (including access to the right wing news circuit, endorsement and money). If he had real friends or people wanting to give wise counsel, they have probably all long gone (or possibly Ivanka is the last woman standing - nobody else in the inner circle, older sons included, gives two sh1ts about the bloke).
It's all terribly sad in a way (although his own fault). He's the mega-lottery winner or football star who dumped his genuine friends in favour of fake ones, who will simply leach off him until he is a dry husk, then f*** off.0 -
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You missed those who make a satisfactory donation to the Tory Party.Chris said:I see Kate Bingham has now finalised the order of priority for vaccination:
(1) Members of the government and their spouses
(2) Older adults in a care home and care home workers
(3) Workers in the the vital financial services industry
(4) All those aged 80 and over
(5) Health and social care workers, but only if there's enough left
(6) We'll think about the others in 2022
This is slightly tongue in cheek.
But only slightly.1 -
I think that is really unfair on accountants at seedy adult book stores.OnboardG1 said:
You're right, that is rather unfair of me, and running a Wal-Mart isn't really a non-job. Perhaps the accountant at a seedy adult bookstore in Philly would be more appropriate?paulyork64 said:
I know it isn't your main point but some people might work very hard to become middle managers at Wal-Mart and be very proud of getting there.OnboardG1 said:
His male spawn (with the exception of Barron who, fortunately, isn't old enough quite yet to have become like his brothers) are the ultimate failsons. They are utterly useless leeches who are an embarrasment and a waste of the hideously expensive education lavished on them. In a just world they'd be middle managers at Wal-Mart.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
They fell out a while ago, didn't they?HYUFD said:
Trump really needs those who have stuck with him because they believe he has the right policy solutions (and perhaps because they like the man) to show genuine concern at this stage over his mental health and legacy, and his impact on trust in US democracy.
Unfortunately, his pattern over the past four years has been to dump all those people for cynical "yes" men who are in it purely for their own careers (including access to the right wing news circuit, endorsement and money). If he had real friends or people wanting to give wise counsel, they have probably all long gone (or possibly Ivanka is the last woman standing - nobody else in the inner circle, older sons included, gives two sh1ts about the bloke).
It's all terribly sad in a way (although his own fault). He's the mega-lottery winner or football star who dumped his genuine friends in favour of fake ones, who will simply leach off him until he is a dry husk, then f*** off.0 -
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Is it likely to be available privately in parallel? Obviously big profits available for Pfizer if they did this but bad PR.dixiedean said:
You missed those who make a satisfactory donation to the Tory Party.Chris said:I see Kate Bingham has now finalised the order of priority for vaccination:
(1) Members of the government and their spouses
(2) Older adults in a care home and care home workers
(3) Workers in the the vital financial services industry
(4) All those aged 80 and over
(5) Health and social care workers, but only if there's enough left
(6) We'll think about the others in 2022
This is slightly tongue in cheek.
But only slightly.
Stuff like covid testing was still easily available privately when the govt were short of capacity earlier in the year.0 -
yes. next to the landscapers.OnboardG1 said:
You're right, that is rather unfair of me, and running a Wal-Mart isn't really a non-job. Perhaps the accountant at a seedy adult bookstore in Philly would be more appropriate?paulyork64 said:
I know it isn't your main point but some people might work very hard to become middle managers at Wal-Mart and be very proud of getting there.OnboardG1 said:
His male spawn (with the exception of Barron who, fortunately, isn't old enough quite yet to have become like his brothers) are the ultimate failsons. They are utterly useless leeches who are an embarrasment and a waste of the hideously expensive education lavished on them. In a just world they'd be middle managers at Wal-Mart.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
They fell out a while ago, didn't they?HYUFD said:
Trump really needs those who have stuck with him because they believe he has the right policy solutions (and perhaps because they like the man) to show genuine concern at this stage over his mental health and legacy, and his impact on trust in US democracy.
Unfortunately, his pattern over the past four years has been to dump all those people for cynical "yes" men who are in it purely for their own careers (including access to the right wing news circuit, endorsement and money). If he had real friends or people wanting to give wise counsel, they have probably all long gone (or possibly Ivanka is the last woman standing - nobody else in the inner circle, older sons included, gives two sh1ts about the bloke).
It's all terribly sad in a way (although his own fault). He's the mega-lottery winner or football star who dumped his genuine friends in favour of fake ones, who will simply leach off him until he is a dry husk, then f*** off.2 -
All down the pub to celebrate the vaccine news?0
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Did both those in good size at close to evens and they were far and away my most satisfying bets on WH2020. Reason being they were really professional jobbies. I read the "Early Voting" blog that was linked on here by various people, noted the turnout projection, did a quick calc, and SWOOPED. So I only got on because of the info shared on here, and then I tipped it back and lots of others here got on too. So - PB.com at its betting best there.paulyork64 said:there is £4.8k at 1.02 for biden to get more than 75m votes. he already has.
£540 at 1.01 for trump to get more than 70m votes. he already has.
https://time.com/5906423/2020-election-results/
don't understand why these arent settled. would need over a million votes chalking off to make them losers.
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No, you are right; I was wrong.Chris said:
I thought the Pfizer trial didn't include any testing of those without symptoms.Nigelb said:
We should know pretty soon, once Pfizer has analysed all the samples and published results. I'd guess it will stop most being infectious, FWIW.MaxPB said:
I'm working on the assumption of the vaccine not stopping people being infectious, just stopping symptoms.rcs1000 said:
Oh, it's much more encouraging than that.MaxPB said:Of the vaccine is 94% effective in preventing symptoms that means with 100% vaccination only 6% of people get symptoms and at a 0.5-1% CFR the upper ceiling on deaths in the UK would be somewhere around 16k-33k. I'd class that as acceptable and just open everything back up again.
We can target the 5% of people most likely to pass it on first - medical staff and care home workers. Because your personal R is different from the population R. Target the high R population, and the medically vulnerable population, and you reduce the likely impact of the disease pretty quickly.
If AZN/Oxford works as well as Pfizer (which we don't know), *and* we get contracted doses on time (30m AZN by end of year, 10m Pfizer), then it's quite possible that the most vulnerable and most likely to transmit are all vaccinated by Easter. Most restrictions can then be lifted, and the rest of us can then get in line, and expect to be vaccinated in the following 12 months.
But given the effectiveness of the vaccine, I'd guess that going ahead they might test for infection in vaccinated high risk populations going ahead.0 -
You missed out "their tortoise, Alan'...dixiedean said:
You missed those who make a satisfactory donation to the Tory Party.Chris said:I see Kate Bingham has now finalised the order of priority for vaccination:
(1) Members of the government and their spouses
(2) Older adults in a care home and care home workers
(3) Workers in the the vital financial services industry
(4) All those aged 80 and over
(5) Health and social care workers, but only if there's enough left
(6) We'll think about the others in 2022
This is slightly tongue in cheek.
But only slightly.1 -
That's a really interesting table. Does anyone know why there appears to be significant increase in the numbers of people in the age range 25-40? Was there a mini baby boom between 1980 and 1995?CarlottaVance said:So that's 5.5 million aged 75+, or working in Care Homes:
https://twitter.com/LordRic52/status/1325777443253260288?s=20
And given the priority list is:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1325776285860245504?s=20
There's the first batch (10 million doses, 2 per patient) of Pfixer vaccine accounted for. Slightly surprised that "NHS clinical staff" not on the priority list....0 -
Clearly euphoria of the great lady's election.Richard_Tyndall said:
That's a really interesting table. Does anyone know why there appears to be significant increase in the numbers of people in the age range 25-40? Was there a mini baby boom between 1980 and 1995?CarlottaVance said:So that's 5.5 million aged 75+, or working in Care Homes:
https://twitter.com/LordRic52/status/1325777443253260288?s=20
And given the priority list is:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1325776285860245504?s=20
There's the first batch (10 million doses, 2 per patient) of Pfixer vaccine accounted for. Slightly surprised that "NHS clinical staff" not on the priority list....1 -
Funnily enough, I was just thinking of inserting:dixiedean said:
You missed those who make a satisfactory donation to the Tory Party.Chris said:I see Kate Bingham has now finalised the order of priority for vaccination:
(1) Members of the government and their spouses
(2) Older adults in a care home and care home workers
(3) Workers in the the vital financial services industry
(4) All those aged 80 and over
(5) Health and social care workers, but only if there's enough left
(6) We'll think about the others in 2022
This is slightly tongue in cheek.
But only slightly.
(0) "Attendees" of Kate Bingham's forthcoming £100-a-head dinner tour, where she will speak on "How my investment skills saved the world".
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LOL. I genuinely hadn't thought of it in terms of political eras. I know the Left always said we were f****d if the Tories were in power. Maybe they meant it literally. :-)RobD said:
Clearly euphoria of the great lady's election.Richard_Tyndall said:
That's a really interesting table. Does anyone know why there appears to be significant increase in the numbers of people in the age range 25-40? Was there a mini baby boom between 1980 and 1995?CarlottaVance said:So that's 5.5 million aged 75+, or working in Care Homes:
https://twitter.com/LordRic52/status/1325777443253260288?s=20
And given the priority list is:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1325776285860245504?s=20
There's the first batch (10 million doses, 2 per patient) of Pfixer vaccine accounted for. Slightly surprised that "NHS clinical staff" not on the priority list....0 -
Re; the Trump future options discussion below, I wondered recently whether Trump might not just disappear off to somewhere like Monaco in the New Year, and set up Trump TV from there. What are the extradition arrangements between places like that and the U.S. ?0
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Yes, you have been spot on about this. Was thinking that this morning.rcs1000 said:
I've said it before, but it bears repeating, Pfizer has been head and shoulders above any of the other vaccine makers in this process. Both Moderna and AZN/Oxford started off a couple of months ahead, but Pfizer has done an absolutely incredibly job of getting trials done, and getting manufacturing up to speed.Scott_xP said:
No, this is perfectrcs1000 said:Trump is going to be p1ssed.
He was on track to be elected again when the deep state and China launched the virus to lose him the vote, and now that's done they release the antidote.
Textbook...
https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1325800569706049542
Of course not. If it was part of WARP speed it could have been release weeks ago.
WAKE UP SHEEPLE!0 -
I've seen comments that the participants in the UK AstraZeneca trial were having regular antigen tests, so perhaps that will help to answer the question.Nigelb said:
No, you are right; I was wrong.Chris said:
I thought the Pfizer trial didn't include any testing of those without symptoms.Nigelb said:
We should know pretty soon, once Pfizer has analysed all the samples and published results. I'd guess it will stop most being infectious, FWIW.MaxPB said:
I'm working on the assumption of the vaccine not stopping people being infectious, just stopping symptoms.rcs1000 said:
Oh, it's much more encouraging than that.MaxPB said:Of the vaccine is 94% effective in preventing symptoms that means with 100% vaccination only 6% of people get symptoms and at a 0.5-1% CFR the upper ceiling on deaths in the UK would be somewhere around 16k-33k. I'd class that as acceptable and just open everything back up again.
We can target the 5% of people most likely to pass it on first - medical staff and care home workers. Because your personal R is different from the population R. Target the high R population, and the medically vulnerable population, and you reduce the likely impact of the disease pretty quickly.
If AZN/Oxford works as well as Pfizer (which we don't know), *and* we get contracted doses on time (30m AZN by end of year, 10m Pfizer), then it's quite possible that the most vulnerable and most likely to transmit are all vaccinated by Easter. Most restrictions can then be lifted, and the rest of us can then get in line, and expect to be vaccinated in the following 12 months.
But given the effectiveness of the vaccine, I'd guess that going ahead they might test for infection in vaccinated high risk populations going ahead.0 -
That is priceless.Theuniondivvie said:US-UK special relationship SORTED
https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1325809945774878720?s=200 -
Increase in babies born v. late 40's to mid 50's might account for the earlier years. And not all the girls were on the pill in the swinging 60's,RobD said:
Clearly euphoria of the great lady's election.Richard_Tyndall said:
That's a really interesting table. Does anyone know why there appears to be significant increase in the numbers of people in the age range 25-40? Was there a mini baby boom between 1980 and 1995?CarlottaVance said:So that's 5.5 million aged 75+, or working in Care Homes:
https://twitter.com/LordRic52/status/1325777443253260288?s=20
And given the priority list is:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1325776285860245504?s=20
There's the first batch (10 million doses, 2 per patient) of Pfixer vaccine accounted for. Slightly surprised that "NHS clinical staff" not on the priority list....0 -
Much easier to go somewhere like Panama. They basically never extradite anybody. Its very American in Panama City and he has a Trump Ocean Club there.WhisperingOracle said:Re; Trump's future listed below, I wondered recently whether Trump might not just disappear off to somewhere like Monaco in the New Year, and set up Trump TV from there. What are the extradition arrangement between places like that and the U.S. ?
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I do hope it will be published. Could be very funny!Theuniondivvie said:US-UK special relationship SORTED
https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1325809945774878720?s=201 -
Thats why we are in lockdown 2FrancisUrquhart said:All down the pub to celebrate the vaccine news?
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Could be emigration in the category just older than that lot - Thatcher years, solitudinem faciunt and all that.Richard_Tyndall said:
LOL. I genuinely hadn't thought of it in terms of political eras. I know the Left always said we were f****d if the Tories were in power. Maybe they meant it literally. :-)RobD said:
Clearly euphoria of the great lady's election.Richard_Tyndall said:
That's a really interesting table. Does anyone know why there appears to be significant increase in the numbers of people in the age range 25-40? Was there a mini baby boom between 1980 and 1995?CarlottaVance said:So that's 5.5 million aged 75+, or working in Care Homes:
https://twitter.com/LordRic52/status/1325777443253260288?s=20
And given the priority list is:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1325776285860245504?s=20
There's the first batch (10 million doses, 2 per patient) of Pfixer vaccine accounted for. Slightly surprised that "NHS clinical staff" not on the priority list....0 -
Wasn't it holidays, given that 80% are of cases are the Spanish variety?NerysHughes said:
Thats why we are in lockdown 2FrancisUrquhart said:All down the pub to celebrate the vaccine news?
0 -
Women stopped taking contraception because AIDS meant they wouldn't be having any casual sex anyway?Richard_Tyndall said:
That's a really interesting table. Does anyone know why there appears to be significant increase in the numbers of people in the age range 25-40? Was there a mini baby boom between 1980 and 1995?CarlottaVance said:So that's 5.5 million aged 75+, or working in Care Homes:
https://twitter.com/LordRic52/status/1325777443253260288?s=20
And given the priority list is:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1325776285860245504?s=20
There's the first batch (10 million doses, 2 per patient) of Pfixer vaccine accounted for. Slightly surprised that "NHS clinical staff" not on the priority list....0 -
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Oh, here it is. No doubt the incoming Biden administration will give it the close attention it merits:
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2020/11/08/letter-to-mr-biden/2 -
Indeed.WhisperingOracle said:
That is priceless.Theuniondivvie said:US-UK special relationship SORTED
https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1325809945774878720?s=20
For extended mirth here is the Daily Express article. If your sides can take it.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1357839/Brexit-news-us-election-joe-biden-uk-trade-deal-Boris-johnson-update1 -
Hmm, seems to have the Brexiter version of bistromathics as applied to elections sewn upTheuniondivvie said:US-UK special relationship SORTED
https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1325809945774878720?s=20
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2020/11/08/letter-to-mr-biden/
https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/brexit-news/westminster-news/conservative-mp-john-rewood-warns-joe-biden-62157180 -
Of course. Blighty's holding all the cards, after all.Richard_Nabavi said:Oh, here it is. No doubt the incoming Biden administration will give it the close attention it merits:
https://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2020/11/08/letter-to-mr-biden/0 -
Isn't it just the echo of the post-war baby boom (ie boomers kids). If baby boom (in UK terms) is roughly 1945-1965, then you would expect an 'echo' roughly 1975-1995.Richard_Tyndall said:
That's a really interesting table. Does anyone know why there appears to be significant increase in the numbers of people in the age range 25-40? Was there a mini baby boom between 1980 and 1995?CarlottaVance said:So that's 5.5 million aged 75+, or working in Care Homes:
https://twitter.com/LordRic52/status/1325777443253260288?s=20
And given the priority list is:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1325776285860245504?s=20
There's the first batch (10 million doses, 2 per patient) of Pfixer vaccine accounted for. Slightly surprised that "NHS clinical staff" not on the priority list....2 -
I bet Biden is quaking in his boots.Theuniondivvie said:US-UK special relationship SORTED
https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1325809945774878720?s=201 -
could it be adult immigration? or would they not show up in this table. another priority list published on here earlier had health care workers included in band 2 with the 80+. don't know why they couldnt have their own band. maybe only room for 10. this isn't spinal tap.Richard_Tyndall said:
That's a really interesting table. Does anyone know why there appears to be significant increase in the numbers of people in the age range 25-40? Was there a mini baby boom between 1980 and 1995?CarlottaVance said:So that's 5.5 million aged 75+, or working in Care Homes:
https://twitter.com/LordRic52/status/1325777443253260288?s=20
And given the priority list is:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1325776285860245504?s=20
There's the first batch (10 million doses, 2 per patient) of Pfixer vaccine accounted for. Slightly surprised that "NHS clinical staff" not on the priority list....1 -
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I think those that are being appointed to run the US government by Biden will be smarter than that.DecrepiterJohnL said:0 -
One would amost think that Lord K and Mr Redwood are trying to throw a clog in the diplomatic machinery.Theuniondivvie said:0 -
Lib Dem voters top of the class.OnlyLivingBoy said:1 -
So today's announcement seems to vindicate the "hunker down and wait for a vaccine" approach to the virus as opposed to the main mooted alternative of "we need to find a way to live with it long term".
But of course not our deeply sub-optimal execution of that approach.2 -
Perhaps you should check the NYT election results, which clearly state that, in Alaska, "No mail or other absentee ballots will be counted until about a week after the election."Quincel said:I've got a bet on Trump winning Alaska and by the time it settles the AER% on my profit will be worse than a bank account. Do they have some principled objection to vote counting?
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1
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The same John Redwood even John Major beat 218 votes to 89 for the Tory leadership in 1995?Theuniondivvie said:US-UK special relationship SORTED
https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1325809945774878720?s=200 -
I guess there is a tiny risk via recounts and litigation?paulyork64 said:there is £4.8k at 1.02 for biden to get more than 75m votes. he already has.
£540 at 1.01 for trump to get more than 70m votes. he already has.
https://time.com/5906423/2020-election-results/
don't understand why these arent settled. would need over a million votes chalking off to make them losers.0 -
Well start to finish i.e. by the time the wider population has got vaccinated is probably going to be 18 months. Swedish egghead said we all needed a plan for 2 years.kinabalu said:So today's announcement seems to vindicate the "hunker down and wait for a vaccine" approach to the virus as opposed to the main mooted alternative of "we need to find a way to live with it long term".
But of course not our deeply sub-optimal execution of that approach.0 -
Nah - he thinks the lockdown was brought in because they knew this was coming and didn't want us all to be out celebrating...RobD said:
Wasn't it holidays, given that 80% are of cases are the Spanish variety?NerysHughes said:
Thats why we are in lockdown 2FrancisUrquhart said:All down the pub to celebrate the vaccine news?
0 -
I would settle for controlling our own Redwood. The man is a half-wit IMO.williamglenn said:Controlling our own fish.
twitter.com/johnredwood/status/13257129611728609280 -
A man whose ambition is to control his own fish.williamglenn said:Controlling our own fish.
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/13257129611728609281 -
I doubt it will take that long. If the AZ vaccine proves as effective then it will be done in 5-8 months. It's literally the silver bullet to having a working economy again, expect absolutely gigantic sums to be spent on vaccination programmes across the world.FrancisUrquhart said:
Well start to finish i.e. by the time the wider population has got vaccinated is probably going to be 18 months. Swedish egghead said we all needed a plan for 2 years.kinabalu said:So today's announcement seems to vindicate the "hunker down and wait for a vaccine" approach to the virus as opposed to the main mooted alternative of "we need to find a way to live with it long term".
But of course not our deeply sub-optimal execution of that approach.2 -
The only quality he shares with the beautiful, august tree is that he's dense.Beibheirli_C said:
I would settle for controlling our own Redwood. The man is a half-wit IMO.williamglenn said:Controlling our own fish.
twitter.com/johnredwood/status/13257129611728609281 -
I think an emergency license would probably be procured as well to speed it up. Every nation with a biotech industry is going to be making the stuff. It could take a year or more, hard to tell, but I think you're right that a lot of money will be spent to speed it up.MaxPB said:
I doubt it will take that long. If the AZ vaccine proves as effective then it will be done in 5-8 months. It's literally the silver bullet to having a working economy again, expect absolutely gigantic sums to be spent on vaccination programmes across the world.FrancisUrquhart said:
Well start to finish i.e. by the time the wider population has got vaccinated is probably going to be 18 months. Swedish egghead said we all needed a plan for 2 years.kinabalu said:So today's announcement seems to vindicate the "hunker down and wait for a vaccine" approach to the virus as opposed to the main mooted alternative of "we need to find a way to live with it long term".
But of course not our deeply sub-optimal execution of that approach.0 -
I think Lib Dem voters usually top these polls where there is a "right" answer - aren't they the highest level of education group?slade said:
Lib Dem voters top of the class.OnlyLivingBoy said:0 -
In a week with a lot of high and mighty falling, the descent of John Redwood from spiky but genuine genius (halfwits don't get to be Fellows of All Souls) to the deluded lost soul he now is has a certain sadness.Beibheirli_C said:
I would settle for controlling our own Redwood. The man is a half-wit IMO.williamglenn said:Controlling our own fish.
twitter.com/johnredwood/status/13257129611728609280 -
Well there is probably another month at least before more data and approval. Some roll out in December, then lets be optimistic, 6 months of full blast, that's August 2021, that's 18 months.MaxPB said:
I doubt it will take that long. If the AZ vaccine proves as effective then it will be done in 5-8 months. It's literally the silver bullet to having a working economy again, expect absolutely gigantic sums to be spent on vaccination programmes across the world.FrancisUrquhart said:
Well start to finish i.e. by the time the wider population has got vaccinated is probably going to be 18 months. Swedish egghead said we all needed a plan for 2 years.kinabalu said:So today's announcement seems to vindicate the "hunker down and wait for a vaccine" approach to the virus as opposed to the main mooted alternative of "we need to find a way to live with it long term".
But of course not our deeply sub-optimal execution of that approach.0 -
Displaying similar agility.OnboardG1 said:
The only quality he shares with the beautiful, august tree is that he's dense.Beibheirli_C said:
I would settle for controlling our own Redwood. The man is a half-wit IMO.williamglenn said:Controlling our own fish.
twitter.com/johnredwood/status/13257129611728609281 -
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It's not ideal for any American president to get on the wrong side of John Redwood, this is true, but Joe is tough old boot. I remember during the campaign he felt the sharp end of Iain Duncan Smith's tongue and he managed to ride that storm.OnlyLivingBoy said:
I bet Biden is quaking in his boots.Theuniondivvie said:US-UK special relationship SORTED
https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1325809945774878720?s=202 -
Is there anybody in the White House that hasn't had it?Scott_xP said:0 -
Yes, I`ve been pondering this today, this does indeed seem to be the nub of it. You`ve summed it up nicely.kinabalu said:So today's announcement seems to vindicate the "hunker down and wait for a vaccine" approach to the virus as opposed to the main mooted alternative of "we need to find a way to live with it long term".
But of course not our deeply sub-optimal execution of that approach.
I`ve been a vocal proponent of the latter. Today`s news inspires hope, but I`m not quite ready to admit I was wrong and that the mother of all gambles has paid off quite yet. Seemed to me that hunkering down caused way to much damage in the hope of a vaccine-shaped silver bullet. But if one appears, works and can get administered prior to, say, the spring, and approximate normality is restored, I`ll happily admit I was wrong.1 -
Re the ignoble Lord Kilclooney, note that (according to Wiki) in 2017 "was forced to deny he was racist after referring to Taoiseach Leo Varadkar in a tweet as "the Indian".
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Ah, but is he a Dawn redwood, a Giant redwood, or a Coastal redwood?dixiedean said:
He's about as agile too.OnboardG1 said:
The only quality he shares with the beautiful, august tree is that he's dense.Beibheirli_C said:
I would settle for controlling our own Redwood. The man is a half-wit IMO.williamglenn said:Controlling our own fish.
twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1325712961172860928
I'm guessing Coastal as that's the tall and thin one. It blows down easily but always resprouts.
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That's a good hypothesis to explain it. Cheers. Trouble is I know this will niggle at me now so I will waste far too many hours looking different possibilities even though I know I probably won't come up with a better explanation than yours.Lennon said:
Isn't it just the echo of the post-war baby boom (ie boomers kids). If baby boom (in UK terms) is roughly 1945-1965, then you would expect an 'echo' roughly 1975-1995.Richard_Tyndall said:
That's a really interesting table. Does anyone know why there appears to be significant increase in the numbers of people in the age range 25-40? Was there a mini baby boom between 1980 and 1995?CarlottaVance said:So that's 5.5 million aged 75+, or working in Care Homes:
https://twitter.com/LordRic52/status/1325777443253260288?s=20
And given the priority list is:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1325776285860245504?s=20
There's the first batch (10 million doses, 2 per patient) of Pfixer vaccine accounted for. Slightly surprised that "NHS clinical staff" not on the priority list....
0 -
More likely East European immigrants. Birthrate was low in the Eighties.OldKingCole said:
Increase in babies born v. late 40's to mid 50's might account for the earlier years. And not all the girls were on the pill in the swinging 60's,RobD said:
Clearly euphoria of the great lady's election.Richard_Tyndall said:
That's a really interesting table. Does anyone know why there appears to be significant increase in the numbers of people in the age range 25-40? Was there a mini baby boom between 1980 and 1995?CarlottaVance said:So that's 5.5 million aged 75+, or working in Care Homes:
https://twitter.com/LordRic52/status/1325777443253260288?s=20
And given the priority list is:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1325776285860245504?s=20
There's the first batch (10 million doses, 2 per patient) of Pfixer vaccine accounted for. Slightly surprised that "NHS clinical staff" not on the priority list....0 -
That reminded me of something that used to be on TV in the middle of the night decades ago.WhisperingOracle said:Re; the Trump future options discussion below, I wondered recently whether Trump might not just disappear off to somewhere like Monaco in the New Year, and set up Trump TV from there. What are the extradition arrangements between places like that and the U.S. ?
But can anyone explain why a Google Image Search for "Patrick Wayne Ploom the Caterpillar" should bring up photos of Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro and Boris Johnson?0 -
Babyboomers kids coming of age and getting married etc?Richard_Tyndall said:
That's a really interesting table. Does anyone know why there appears to be significant increase in the numbers of people in the age range 25-40? Was there a mini baby boom between 1980 and 1995?CarlottaVance said:So that's 5.5 million aged 75+, or working in Care Homes:
https://twitter.com/LordRic52/status/1325777443253260288?s=20
And given the priority list is:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1325776285860245504?s=20
There's the first batch (10 million doses, 2 per patient) of Pfixer vaccine accounted for. Slightly surprised that "NHS clinical staff" not on the priority list....0 -
It is alright. It is just another of our half-wits doing his best to ensure that things will be as difficult as possible for the UK in the post-Trump, Brexit world....DecrepiterJohnL said:1 -
Rare to see 100% anywhere in a poll, and hats off to both of my fellow endangered lesser spotted Lib Dems whom YouGov somehow managed to hunt down to answer the question.slade said:
Lib Dem voters top of the class.OnlyLivingBoy said:0 -
Coat of arms of John Taylor, Baron Kilclooney
Coronet
A Coronet of a Baron
Crest
A Tailor Bird Or grasping a Bush eradicated Azure enflamed Or
Escutcheon
Azure issuing in base three Representations of the Scrabo Tower Argent with windows framed and Pinnacles Or each ensigned by a Viking Helm Argent horned Or
Supporters
On either side an Irish Elk Gules unguled and attired Or resting the exterior forehoof upon an Ulster Gatepost Argent
Motto
A While Fer Wark An A While Fer Spoartin
Addendum: An A While Fer Spewing Shite0 -
The evolution of Brexit. The benefits -williamglenn said:Controlling our own fish.
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1325712961172860928
It's about sovereignty and immigration and the economy and fish.
It's about sovereignty and immigration and fish.
It's about immigration and fish.
It's about fish.8 -
Interim results are also expected this month or in early December from trials for the Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine,
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/09/covid-19-vaccine-candidate-effective-pfizer-biontech
Big knees up down the pub for Christmas and massive New Year's party to hopefully celebrate 2 working vaccines....
I think Boris really has to make it clear, there is still a huge danger, we probably have at least another 6 months of restrictions ahead of us and if we don't follow the rules 10,000s of extra people will die.
This really has to be hammered home.0 -
This shows how few of the wacky old SW liberals now identify as Lib Dems.slade said:
Lib Dem voters top of the class.OnlyLivingBoy said:0 -
Redwood has a LAWS FISH FREEDOM vest doesn't he?williamglenn said:Controlling our own fish.
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/13257129611728609280
