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It shouldn’t be long before WH2020 bets are settled – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    UK cases by specimen date

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    UK cases by specimen data and scaled to 100k population

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    UK R

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  • kinabalu said:

    kjh said:

    RH1992 said:
    He'll be in prison.
    Good luck finding a jury who will agree on his trial.
    Good point. Just 3 Trumpers could kill it. Better make sure it's in New York.
    If New York City, you'd struggle to find three Trumpers.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,884
    edited November 2020

    Carnyx said:

    Appreciate everyone is bored to tears with the endless indy-blah emanating from north of the border.

    But this is actually pretty sensational. Sturgeon clearly seems to made the regulations on harassment retrospective to ensnare Salmond and torpedo his chances of effecting a political resurrection.

    It's incendiary and if it wasn't for Trump/Biden and Covid would be dominating the news schedules.

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18858466.alex-salmond-inquiry-nicola-sturgeon-ordered-misconduct-policy-48-hours-accuser-disclosure-aide

    Can't read the article (paywall) - buit the retrospectivityt bit is not new at all. Been known for ages. Does it say when the policy itself was actually formulated? IIRC it was developed some time before, so signing off would have been ast the very end of the gestation period.
    This is from the report:

    "NICOLA Sturgeon demanded a new harassment policy should apply to former ministers just 48 hours after one of Alex Salmond’s accusers made a secret “disclosure” to her private office.

    "The First Minister’s private secretary received the sensitive information from a female civil servant who later filed a misconduct complaint against Mr Salmond."
    Thanks. I'vbe managed to get at the report. The policy was being developed well before this complaint happened, it makes clear (as a result of the MeToo scandal and Westminster problems). I'm not sure what the precise scope was - the article seems to elide it and the Ministerial Code in a way that doesn't make complete sense. But the other option would seemingly be for Ms S to interpret it in a way which was seen as restricting its scope - which might be considered unlikely for at least two reasons independent of Mr Salmond.
  • ydoethur said:

    I am sure that Kamala Harris, as the first ever non-white Vice President, agrees Black Lives Matter.

    Targeting her, therefore, is stupid. So stupid you have to wonder if these supposed anarchists were Klansmen under a false flag.
    No, in Portland, they are far left anarchists. They have attacked Ted Wheeler home, the massively left wing Mayor, they attacked another elected representative the other night, because he voted against defunding the police. They have smashed up a church that feed and shelter the homeless.

    And the attack above, they have already arrested some suspects and they definitely don't look like Proud Boy types.

    If Ted Wheeler isn't left wing enough for you, Joe Biden is verging on right wing fascist.
    There are literal fascists in Portland doing violence too. The two extremes keep descending to cause violence and feed off each other.

    Politics is neither here nor there for most of them, these are virtually professional trouble makers.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    UK case summary

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  • RH1992 said:
    Doesn't this imply he may be mentally prepared to lose/concede?
    Here's a thought, Trump is running in 2024 so he won't be investigated/charged.

    Would Joe Biden's government really investigate/prosecute a potential challenger?
    Depends on what.

    I suspect Biden might be willing to issue a pardon (although not quickly) in relation to federal offences as part of his "uniting the country" vibe.

    But if New York want to prosecute Citizen Trump for fraud under state law - and it looks a lot like they do and others may - it's simply not within Biden's gift.
    There is no reason a wider amnesty or pardon cannot be negotiated. It is not just for unity or to protect the dignity of the White House but also to avoid fuelling the state propaganda of authoritarian regimes around the world. The counter-argument is that if every rogue President (Nixon and now Trump) can expect a pardon, what is to restrain them? But I'd not be betting on President Trump seeing the inside of a prison cell.
    There is every reason why a wider pardon will be hard to negotiate.

    For a start, Andrew Cuomo would be the man responsible for issuing pardons in New York. He governs a strongly Democratic state and is looking at a 2024 run himself. In terms of getting the nomination at least, being the man who nailed Trump doesn't look bad on the CV. He just doesn't have the same incentives as Biden.

    And other cases are also tricky - Trump is being sued for libel for saying a lady who claimed he raped her is lying. So that's effectively a rape trial in a civil court if it goes ahead. That's also New York and even Cuomo could be leaned on over arcane tax matters, he's not going near that. And other cases could come up in other territories.

    Plus, why would Biden break his back to do this? The federal pardon is in his gift, and he can perfectly reasonably say "Sorry, Don, I respect state rights far too much to interfere in their justice systems - you're on your own, pal".
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    UK Hospitals

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    UK Deaths

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364
    UK R

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,128
    It's like when people complain about the use of cliches, it can get over the top in seeking to criticise alleged confusion or deeper motivation (eg use of words like battle or war).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,364

    RH1992 said:
    Doesn't this imply he may be mentally prepared to lose/concede?
    Here's a thought, Trump is running in 2024 so he won't be investigated/charged.

    Would Joe Biden's government really investigate/prosecute a potential challenger?
    Depends on what.

    I suspect Biden might be willing to issue a pardon (although not quickly) in relation to federal offences as part of his "uniting the country" vibe.

    But if New York want to prosecute Citizen Trump for fraud under state law - and it looks a lot like they do and others may - it's simply not within Biden's gift.
    There is no reason a wider amnesty or pardon cannot be negotiated. It is not just for unity or to protect the dignity of the White House but also to avoid fuelling the state propaganda of authoritarian regimes around the world. The counter-argument is that if every rogue President (Nixon and now Trump) can expect a pardon, what is to restrain them? But I'd not be betting on President Trump seeing the inside of a prison cell.
    There is every reason why a wider pardon will be hard to negotiate.

    For a start, Andrew Cuomo would be the man responsible for issuing pardons in New York. He governs a strongly Democratic state and is looking at a 2024 run himself. In terms of getting the nomination at least, being the man who nailed Trump doesn't look bad on the CV. He just doesn't have the same incentives as Biden.

    And other cases are also tricky - Trump is being sued for libel for saying a lady who claimed he raped her is lying. So that's effectively a rape trial in a civil court if it goes ahead. That's also New York and even Cuomo could be leaned on over arcane tax matters, he's not going near that. And other cases could come up in other territories.

    Plus, why would Biden break his back to do this? The federal pardon is in his gift, and he can perfectly reasonably say "Sorry, Don, I respect state rights far too much to interfere in their justice systems - you're on your own, pal".
    The presidential pardon doesn't cover state crimes, IIRC.

    States Rights and all that.....
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    If someone can explain QAnon to me (to the extent it is explainable) please do feel free. I don’t understand a thing of it aside from Trump being our saviour from paedophiles, or something.

    Basically, the Liberal establishment is peopled by Satan-worshipping cannibalistic paedophiles, and Donald has been sent by God to do battle with them. All this is revealed online by the mysterious 'Q', who is someone high up in the US government and may even be Donald himself. Moreover the whole thing might be exactly what the Book of Revelations predicated, so we could be living in End of Days.
    Sadly, that is an accurate account and not a parody.
    They are edging towards full blown anti-semitism as well. The baby eating stuff keeps morphing and is orbiting closer and closer towards landing on planet Blood Libel.
  • RH1992 said:
    Doesn't this imply he may be mentally prepared to lose/concede?
    Here's a thought, Trump is running in 2024 so he won't be investigated/charged.

    Would Joe Biden's government really investigate/prosecute a potential challenger?
    Depends on what.

    I suspect Biden might be willing to issue a pardon (although not quickly) in relation to federal offences as part of his "uniting the country" vibe.

    But if New York want to prosecute Citizen Trump for fraud under state law - and it looks a lot like they do and others may - it's simply not within Biden's gift.
    There is no reason a wider amnesty or pardon cannot be negotiated. It is not just for unity or to protect the dignity of the White House but also to avoid fuelling the state propaganda of authoritarian regimes around the world. The counter-argument is that if every rogue President (Nixon and now Trump) can expect a pardon, what is to restrain them? But I'd not be betting on President Trump seeing the inside of a prison cell.
    There is every reason why a wider pardon will be hard to negotiate.

    For a start, Andrew Cuomo would be the man responsible for issuing pardons in New York. He governs a strongly Democratic state and is looking at a 2024 run himself. In terms of getting the nomination at least, being the man who nailed Trump doesn't look bad on the CV. He just doesn't have the same incentives as Biden.

    And other cases are also tricky - Trump is being sued for libel for saying a lady who claimed he raped her is lying. So that's effectively a rape trial in a civil court if it goes ahead. That's also New York and even Cuomo could be leaned on over arcane tax matters, he's not going near that. And other cases could come up in other territories.

    Plus, why would Biden break his back to do this? The federal pardon is in his gift, and he can perfectly reasonably say "Sorry, Don, I respect state rights far too much to interfere in their justice systems - you're on your own, pal".
    The presidential pardon doesn't cover state crimes, IIRC.

    States Rights and all that.....
    Indeed - that's my point.

    People are underestimating how deep and how nasty the sh1t is Trump could well be in in New York.

    This isn't some backwater where it can all be smoothed over - it's a huge financial centre with massive experience pursuing and prosecuting financial fraud. When the New York prosecutor's office reckon they have a case against you, then you REALLY need your big boy pants on, and preferably brown ones.

    Its Governor has no interest in pardoning fraudsters generally and every interest in taking down Trump in terms of his own ambitions.

    The situation is potentially DIRE there for Trump, with no easy way out.
  • ydoethur said:

    Surely the real question is, when do the GOP and Trump get investigated for the massive fraud they’ve clearly committed in this election?

    After all, they know past all doubt there’s been fraud yet there’s no evidence in public to show it...

    Don’t see the Dem establishment touching him at all. Look at how pally they are with the Bush family for example. I highly doubt Trump will be prosecuted. If anything, I wouldn’t be surprised to see his legacy whitewashed like what’s happen with Dubya.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,244
    edited November 2020

    UK R

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    Drakeford's Welsh lockdown was Oct 23 to Nov 9.

    So to me that seems to show the mixed value of "2 week circuit break". Hardly a surprise as 2 weeks is not really long enough to see an impact. Or are there time delay factors in the data which affect the interpeatation?

    Am I right that the R rate in Wales has gone *up* during the Circuit Break, whilst staying around 1?
    OTOH hospital admission and case rate in some of the worst areas has gone down, which is welcome.


  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,244
    MattW said:

    UK R

    image

    Drakeford's Welsh lockdown was Oct 23 to Nov 9.

    So to me that seems to show the mixed value of "2 week circuit break". Hardly a surprise as 2 weeks is not really long enough to see an impact. Or are there time delay factors in the data which affect the interpeatation?

    Am I right that the R rate in Wales has gone *up* during the Circuit Break, whilst staying around 1?
    OTOH hospital admission and case rate in some of the worst areas has gone down, which is welcome.


    Hah. Wrong thread.
This discussion has been closed.