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It shouldn’t be long before WH2020 bets are settled – politicalbetting.com
It shouldn’t be long before WH2020 bets are settled – politicalbetting.com
Given the scale of betting activity on the American election quite a few punters have been in contact asking when bets are going to be settled.
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https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/09/covid-19-vaccine-from-pfizer-and-biontech-is-strongly-effective-early-data-from-large-trial-indicate/
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1325776258786062336?s=20
Still kicking yourself for failing to bet against Ralston?
Not out of animosity but out of avarice.
They start counting postals tomorrow. In reality you are very safe but probably not as safe as you thought when you put the bet on.
https://twitter.com/FranceNews24/status/1325719368454594562?s=20
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-iJU_7U0Fo&
* which he knew nothing about the world leading levels that went on when he was editor.
‘In total, we’ve procured 40million doses of the Pfizer candidate vaccine, with 10million of those doses being manufactured and available to the UK by the end of the year if the vaccine is approved by the regulators,’
But this is great news because:
(1) It indicates other messenger RNA vaccines (like AZN/Oxford) are likely to work
(2) The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is (by the standard of these things) relatively easy to manufacture
(3) 90% effective is fantastic. What will be doubly interesting to understand if those few people that got CV19 got mild cases. (Albeit the number of people infected is so small, there won't be statistically significant information on this.)
Mark Drakeford said it was good news but warned: "I think you'd always want to read carefully what a particular competitor in this field says on their own behalf."
He added he was "not going to be tempted to suggest that this somehow means there is a magic bullet on the horizon".
He was on track to be elected again when the deep state and China launched the virus to lose him the vote, and now that's done they release the antidote.
Textbook...
https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1325800569706049542
Of course not. If it was part of WARP speed it could have been release weeks ago.
WAKE UP SHEEPLE!
Apparently 13 new ballots were dropped in North Carolina, and they split 50/50 between Biden and Trump...
And yes this does bode well for AZN/Oxford and Moderna as well. Having multiple 80-90% effective vaccines would make life a lot easier for various governments.
https://www.google.com/search?q=arizona+voting+results&rlz=1C1GCEB_enGB892GB892&oq=arizona+votin&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0i3l2j0i131i433j0l2j0i3j0.5452j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html#
Dems are still 1.08 to win AZ on the exchange though.
https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1325772537834442753?s=20
Fox should not have called AZ when they did. It was definitely nowhere near the 99.5% confidence interval for calling a state.
Trump really needs those who have stuck with him because they believe he has the right policy solutions (and perhaps because they like the man) to show genuine concern at this stage over his mental health and legacy, and his impact on trust in US democracy.
Unfortunately, his pattern over the past four years has been to dump all those people for cynical "yes" men who are in it purely for their own careers (including access to the right wing news circuit, endorsement and money). If he had real friends or people wanting to give wise counsel, they have probably all long gone (or possibly Ivanka is the last woman standing - nobody else in the inner circle, older sons included, gives two sh1ts about the bloke).
It's all terribly sad in a way (although his own fault). He's the mega-lottery winner or football star who dumped his genuine friends in favour of fake ones, who will simply leach off him until he is a dry husk, then f*** off.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325801372051181568?s=20
BBC News - 'Mutant coronavirus' seen before on mink farms, say scientists
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-54867653
We get a trade deal with the EU
The vaccine works and is rolled out across the UK
The economy improves quickly
Boris and Joe Biden lead the climate change debate and next year's conference is a great success
And Boris contradicts all of us who think he should go by staying and investing in the North as promised
Who knows but it is just possible
Since Nov 3rd the number of received mail ballots has risen from 936k to 971k (plus a tiny number of overseas and military ballots)
https://dl.ncsbe.gov/?prefix=Press/NC Absentee Stats for 2020 General Election/
There's also other pages on the website that give an estimate of actual ballots to count. The important point is that they are all lower than 75k
We can target the 5% of people most likely to pass it on first - medical staff and care home workers. Because your personal R is different from the population R. Target the high R population, and the medically vulnerable population, and you reduce the likely impact of the disease pretty quickly.
If AZN/Oxford works as well as Pfizer (which we don't know), *and* we get contracted doses on time (30m AZN by end of year, 10m Pfizer), then it's quite possible that the most vulnerable and most likely to transmit are all vaccinated by Easter. Most restrictions can then be lifted, and the rest of us can then get in line, and expect to be vaccinated in the following 12 months.
Titter ....
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/
I've topped up. Value.
https://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2020/11/09/man-featured-at-giuliani-press-conference-is-a-sex-offender-1335241
£540 at 1.01 for trump to get more than 70m votes. he already has.
https://time.com/5906423/2020-election-results/
don't understand why these arent settled. would need over a million votes chalking off to make them losers.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p08v4nhf?xtor=CS8-1000-[Discovery_Cards]-[Multi_Site]-[SL02]-[PS_SOUNDS~N~~TheFrostTapesFrostBidenBonus
https://twitter.com/LordRic52/status/1325777443253260288?s=20
And given the priority list is:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1325776285860245504?s=20
There's the first batch (10 million doses, 2 per patient) of Pfixer vaccine accounted for. Slightly surprised that "NHS clinical staff" not on the priority list....
Betfair probably want to hang onto the cash and liquidity.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-astrazenec/delivery-timetable-for-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-slips-uk-official-says-idUKKBN27K2GU
But supposedly 100m next year are still expected.
And of course if it's 94% that means the percentage with symptoms in the vaccinated group is only 6% of that in the control group. Given that half or more of cases could be asymptomatic anyway, the percentage liable to have symptomatic infections after vaccination might be only 2% or 3%.
I think the stuff about there being a problem in the relationship between POTUS and PM is misplaced. They'll likely get on fine and will be singing from the same songsheet in Glasgow.
Suspect HYUFD is spot on about a Brexit deal as well.
https://www.iam-media.com/coronavirus/pfizers-covid-vaccine-found-90-effective-raises-ip-questions
It's not totally clear what part of the House of Lords Code of Conduct he's broken (there are some specific rules in there over finances, bullying etc, but this is more general arseholery). However, they might get him on the blanket requirement for Lords to "act on their personal honour" which is nice and vague.
If ever there was a case for "sort it out later" this is surely it?