It shouldn’t be long before WH2020 bets are settled – politicalbetting.com
It shouldn’t be long before WH2020 bets are settled – politicalbetting.com
Given the scale of betting activity on the American election quite a few punters have been in contact asking when bets are going to be settled.
Comments
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First0
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Could be worse.0
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For anyone who thinks Pfizer sat on the results: Didn't quite happen like that. They initially planned a 32 person interim review (ie when 32 people across the whole trial had covid) for the end of October which would have told them if the vaccine was effective, but regulators criticized that as being a bit premature. They agreed with the FDA to do a 64 person interim review and by the time the independent review team had done the unblinding they had 94 cases to work with. Still a fair bit of research to do to close the confidence intervals on the final effectiveness but it looks pretty damned solid.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/09/covid-19-vaccine-from-pfizer-and-biontech-is-strongly-effective-early-data-from-large-trial-indicate/2 -
He's taken it and that's a side effect?TheScreamingEagles said:
Trump is going to lose his pooh over this.Scott_xP said:0 -
New bunch of illegal votes in from Philadelphia. 91% for Biden. Biden's lead up to 45,670.0
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People can have absolute certainty and still be wrong, but on an issue like this, the biggest ongoing news story in the world for the last 10 months, they would have to be both spectacularly dumb and spectacularly unlucky to be wrong.Anabobazina said:The idea that Pfizer would put out a release like this, first thing on a Monday morning, just as the markets open in the United States, without absolute certainty that they are right is for the birds.
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I've got a bet on Trump winning Alaska and by the time it settles the AER% on my profit will be worse than a bank account. Do they have some principled objection to vote counting?1
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The NYTimes site says the only votes counted on the night were election day votes and in person early voting, and that they would not even begin counting the rest until at least a week after election day. It actually makes a bit more sense than drip feeds of very small dumps of votes per day over a week, though as it was unlikely to affect the overall result they had that luxuery I guess.Quincel said:I've got a bet on Trump winning Alaska and by the time it settles the AER% on my profit will be worse than a bank account. Do they have some principled objection to vote counting?
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MrEd said:
Not sure why they necessarily should, it's a 20K margin so not exactly a crushing victory. They made it very early on and it's clear they wildly over-estimated Biden's margins.Anabobazina said:
Great call by Fox/AP – I hope those who attacked them for the call will now recant.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1325578272302903296
Good news for Biden out of Arizona.
Arizona + Nevada gets Biden to 270 outwith Pennsylvania and Georgia. Given republicans did well downballot in Az (Ex McSally) the legislature there is less likely to indulge any shenanigans in my opinion.
Still kicking yourself for failing to bet against Ralston?0 -
I dearly hope you lose that bet!Quincel said:I've got a bet on Trump winning Alaska and by the time it settles the AER% on my profit will be worse than a bank account. Do they have some principled objection to vote counting?
Not out of animosity but out of avarice.
They start counting postals tomorrow. In reality you are very safe but probably not as safe as you thought when you put the bet on.0 -
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Fair, fair. I got 1/9, which I'd pretty much take today or certainly fairly close (I'd take 1/6, for sure). Gross says he thinks he'll win the Senate race, but given the results in other states I'd be stunned if it swung.Alistair said:
I dearly hope you lose that bet!Quincel said:I've got a bet on Trump winning Alaska and by the time it settles the AER% on my profit will be worse than a bank account. Do they have some principled objection to vote counting?
Not out of animosity but out of avarice.
They start counting postals tomorrow. In reality you are very safe but probably not as safe as you thought when you put the bet on.0 -
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I presume like phone hacking*, his very close friendship and boosting of Trump won't stand against Piers now he has become the self appointed "voice of the nation" in attacking the government.HYUFD said:twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1325784594591997952?s=20
* which he knew nothing about the world leading levels that went on when he was editor.1 -
MY rough rough estimate is the mail ballots will split 50/50 rather than the historical 60/40 for the GOP. So no where even close to being a danger.Quincel said:
Fair, fair. I got 1/9, which I'd pretty much take today or certainly fairly close (I'd take 1/6, for sure). Gross says he thinks he'll win the Senate race, but given the results in other states I'd be stunned if it swung.Alistair said:
I dearly hope you lose that bet!Quincel said:I've got a bet on Trump winning Alaska and by the time it settles the AER% on my profit will be worse than a bank account. Do they have some principled objection to vote counting?
Not out of animosity but out of avarice.
They start counting postals tomorrow. In reality you are very safe but probably not as safe as you thought when you put the bet on.0 -
He is absolutely correct and Boris needs to drop it or negotiate it away 'tout de suite'HYUFD said:2 -
Boris Johnson is due to hold a press conference at 5pm
‘In total, we’ve procured 40million doses of the Pfizer candidate vaccine, with 10million of those doses being manufactured and available to the UK by the end of the year if the vaccine is approved by the regulators,’1 -
Trump is going to be p1ssed.OnboardG1 said:For anyone who thinks Pfizer sat on the results: Didn't quite happen like that. They initially planned a 32 person interim review (ie when 32 people across the whole trial had covid) for the end of October which would have told them if the vaccine was effective, but regulators criticized that as being a bit premature. They agreed with the FDA to do a 64 person interim review and by the time the independent review team had done the unblinding they had 94 cases to work with. Still a fair bit of research to do to close the confidence intervals on the final effectiveness but it looks pretty damned solid.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/09/covid-19-vaccine-from-pfizer-and-biontech-is-strongly-effective-early-data-from-large-trial-indicate/
But this is great news because:
(1) It indicates other messenger RNA vaccines (like AZN/Oxford) are likely to work
(2) The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is (by the standard of these things) relatively easy to manufacture
(3) 90% effective is fantastic. What will be doubly interesting to understand if those few people that got CV19 got mild cases. (Albeit the number of people infected is so small, there won't be statistically significant information on this.)
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The man is a moron...
Mark Drakeford said it was good news but warned: "I think you'd always want to read carefully what a particular competitor in this field says on their own behalf."
He added he was "not going to be tempted to suggest that this somehow means there is a magic bullet on the horizon".0 -
Agree BigG and Boris should also compromise with the EU on state aid so we get a trade deal and the issue of a border in the Irish Sea becomes much less significant tooBig_G_NorthWales said:
He is absolutely correct and Boris needs to drop it or negotiate it away 'tout de suite'HYUFD said:1 -
No, this is perfectrcs1000 said:Trump is going to be p1ssed.
He was on track to be elected again when the deep state and China launched the virus to lose him the vote, and now that's done they release the antidote.
Textbook...
https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1325800569706049542
Of course not. If it was part of WARP speed it could have been release weeks ago.
WAKE UP SHEEPLE!0 -
I'm slightly suspicious of https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html
Apparently 13 new ballots were dropped in North Carolina, and they split 50/50 between Biden and Trump...1 -
Amazing to think that if this had been announced this time last week, Trump might have won.1
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They've added an outcome to their trial now to assess the reduction in severe cases after their trial concludes (at 160 odd cases IIRC).rcs1000 said:
Trump is going to be p1ssed.OnboardG1 said:For anyone who thinks Pfizer sat on the results: Didn't quite happen like that. They initially planned a 32 person interim review (ie when 32 people across the whole trial had covid) for the end of October which would have told them if the vaccine was effective, but regulators criticized that as being a bit premature. They agreed with the FDA to do a 64 person interim review and by the time the independent review team had done the unblinding they had 94 cases to work with. Still a fair bit of research to do to close the confidence intervals on the final effectiveness but it looks pretty damned solid.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/09/covid-19-vaccine-from-pfizer-and-biontech-is-strongly-effective-early-data-from-large-trial-indicate/
But this is great news because:
(1) It indicates other messenger RNA vaccines (like AZN/Oxford) are likely to work
(2) The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is (by the standard of these things) relatively easy to manufacture
(3) 90% effective is fantastic. What will be doubly interesting to understand if those few people that got CV19 got mild cases. (Albeit the number of people infected is so small, there won't be statistically significant information on this.)
And yes this does bode well for AZN/Oxford and Moderna as well. Having multiple 80-90% effective vaccines would make life a lot easier for various governments.0 -
Robert I've emailed you with a threadrcs1000 said:I'm slightly suspicious of https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html
Apparently 13 new ballots were dropped in North Carolina, and they split 50/50 between Biden and Trump...
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How had I not seen that website before? Good to see North Carolina actually is doing some results.rcs1000 said:I'm slightly suspicious of https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html
Apparently 13 new ballots were dropped in North Carolina, and they split 50/50 between Biden and Trump...0 -
I've said it before, but it bears repeating, Pfizer has been head and shoulders above any of the other vaccine makers in this process. Both Moderna and AZN/Oxford started off a couple of months ahead, but Pfizer has done an absolutely incredibly job of getting trials done, and getting manufacturing up to speed.Scott_xP said:
No, this is perfectrcs1000 said:Trump is going to be p1ssed.
He was on track to be elected again when the deep state and China launched the virus to lose him the vote, and now that's done they release the antidote.
Textbook...
https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1325800569706049542
Of course not. If it was part of WARP speed it could have been release weeks ago.
WAKE UP SHEEPLE!0 -
Mysticrose said:
Robert I've emailed you with a threadrcs1000 said:I'm slightly suspicious of https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html
Apparently 13 new ballots were dropped in North Carolina, and they split 50/50 between Biden and Trump...
Let me pass it onto the powers that be.Mysticrose said:
Robert I've emailed you with a threadrcs1000 said:I'm slightly suspicious of https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html
Apparently 13 new ballots were dropped in North Carolina, and they split 50/50 between Biden and Trump...1 -
Given how many Democrats voted early by mail, it probably wouldn't have been enough. But two or three weeks ago, yes.Mysticrose said:Amazing to think that if this had been announced this time last week, Trump might have won.
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Hilariously, if they'd backed all the vaccine candidates then he might have had this as his October surprise.Scott_xP said:
No, this is perfectrcs1000 said:Trump is going to be p1ssed.
He was on track to be elected again when the deep state and China launched the virus to lose him the vote, and now that's done they release the antidote.
Textbook...
https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1325800569706049542
Of course not. If it was part of WARP speed it could have been release weeks ago.
WAKE UP SHEEPLE!0 -
Bingo.Anabobazina said:0 -
Have you seen my NC ballot sleuthing? I reckon there is a max of 60,000 actual delivered ballots ready to be counted. Not enough to overturn the Senate or Presidential numbers.rcs1000 said:I'm slightly suspicious of https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html
Apparently 13 new ballots were dropped in North Carolina, and they split 50/50 between Biden and Trump...0 -
Haha, no glad I listened to him and a fair few others on this site by making bets suggested. It pays to listen to othersAlistair said:MrEd said:
Not sure why they necessarily should, it's a 20K margin so not exactly a crushing victory. They made it very early on and it's clear they wildly over-estimated Biden's margins.Anabobazina said:
Great call by Fox/AP – I hope those who attacked them for the call will now recant.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1325578272302903296
Good news for Biden out of Arizona.
Arizona + Nevada gets Biden to 270 outwith Pennsylvania and Georgia. Given republicans did well downballot in Az (Ex McSally) the legislature there is less likely to indulge any shenanigans in my opinion.
Still kicking yourself for failing to bet against Ralston?
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is that 20k figure old or brand new? two sources i look at have it a shade under 17k.Alistair said:MrEd said:
Not sure why they necessarily should, it's a 20K margin so not exactly a crushing victory. They made it very early on and it's clear they wildly over-estimated Biden's margins.Anabobazina said:
Great call by Fox/AP – I hope those who attacked them for the call will now recant.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1325578272302903296
Good news for Biden out of Arizona.
Arizona + Nevada gets Biden to 270 outwith Pennsylvania and Georgia. Given republicans did well downballot in Az (Ex McSally) the legislature there is less likely to indulge any shenanigans in my opinion.
Still kicking yourself for failing to bet against Ralston?
https://www.google.com/search?q=arizona+voting+results&rlz=1C1GCEB_enGB892GB892&oq=arizona+votin&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0i3l2j0i131i433j0l2j0i3j0.5452j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html#
Dems are still 1.08 to win AZ on the exchange though.0 -
I think they're taking the raw feed of current numbers from the NYT and trying to delta against previous iterations to see the trends. That's going to produce some oddities from time to time as the raw numbers will inevitably contain errors and corrections.rcs1000 said:I'm slightly suspicious of https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html
Apparently 13 new ballots were dropped in North Carolina, and they split 50/50 between Biden and Trump...0 -
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AP - Georgia - Biden +10,3530
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That's an old Tweet, Biden's lead in AZ is about 17k now. (Albeit the remaining ballots are mostly provisionals, so the real number left to count (a) isn't as high as it looks, as many provisionals mail ins will have already been counted, and (b) provisionals are less likely to be from snowbirds.)paulyork64 said:
is that 20k figure old or brand new? two sources i look at have it a shade under 17k.Alistair said:MrEd said:
Not sure why they necessarily should, it's a 20K margin so not exactly a crushing victory. They made it very early on and it's clear they wildly over-estimated Biden's margins.Anabobazina said:
Great call by Fox/AP – I hope those who attacked them for the call will now recant.Pulpstar said:https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1325578272302903296
Good news for Biden out of Arizona.
Arizona + Nevada gets Biden to 270 outwith Pennsylvania and Georgia. Given republicans did well downballot in Az (Ex McSally) the legislature there is less likely to indulge any shenanigans in my opinion.
Still kicking yourself for failing to bet against Ralston?
https://www.google.com/search?q=arizona+voting+results&rlz=1C1GCEB_enGB892GB892&oq=arizona+votin&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0i3l2j0i131i433j0l2j0i3j0.5452j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html#
Dems are still 1.08 to win AZ on the exchange though.
Fox should not have called AZ when they did. It was definitely nowhere near the 99.5% confidence interval for calling a state.0 -
Lies, straight from the pit of hell.Wulfrun_Phil said:New bunch of illegal votes in from Philadelphia. 91% for Biden. Biden's lead up to 45,670.
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They fell out a while ago, didn't they?HYUFD said:
Trump really needs those who have stuck with him because they believe he has the right policy solutions (and perhaps because they like the man) to show genuine concern at this stage over his mental health and legacy, and his impact on trust in US democracy.
Unfortunately, his pattern over the past four years has been to dump all those people for cynical "yes" men who are in it purely for their own careers (including access to the right wing news circuit, endorsement and money). If he had real friends or people wanting to give wise counsel, they have probably all long gone (or possibly Ivanka is the last woman standing - nobody else in the inner circle, older sons included, gives two sh1ts about the bloke).
It's all terribly sad in a way (although his own fault). He's the mega-lottery winner or football star who dumped his genuine friends in favour of fake ones, who will simply leach off him until he is a dry husk, then f*** off.2 -
Isn't the relatively low effectiveness of seasonal flu vaccines due to the manufacturers having to make a call on which strains they think will be prevalent each season? It'd be interesting to know the effectiveness of seasonal flu vaccines against the strains they target.HYUFD said:1 -
For those of us following the Casino Royale 52% Biden vote share tip, some encouraging news:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325801372051181568?s=20
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I have not, but the question I have is (and which you may know the answer to): is the total number outstanding simply the number of mail in ballots yet to be recieved? If so, they won't all come in (50% is probably generous).Alistair said:
Have you seen my NC ballot sleuthing? I reckon there is a max of 60,000 actual delivered ballots ready to be counted. Not enough to overturn the Senate or Presidential numbers.rcs1000 said:I'm slightly suspicious of https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html
Apparently 13 new ballots were dropped in North Carolina, and they split 50/50 between Biden and Trump...0 -
More news on mutant minky covid...
BBC News - 'Mutant coronavirus' seen before on mink farms, say scientists
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-548676530 -
Maybe they're waiting for daybreak? So sometime next April.Quincel said:I've got a bet on Trump winning Alaska and by the time it settles the AER% on my profit will be worse than a bank account. Do they have some principled objection to vote counting?
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Yes, I'm on that and while I'm thinking my 2/1 hasn't played out as value a lot of California votes would be very helpful. Even then though, assuming they split 2:1 Biden I don't think 3.6m votes is enough, we need some other states to come through (and there are places like NY/NJ with late votes coming in) too.Mysticrose said:For those of us following the Casino Royale 52% Biden vote share tip, some encouraging news:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325801372051181568?s=202 -
His male spawn (with the exception of Barron who, fortunately, isn't old enough quite yet to have become like his brothers) are the ultimate failsons. They are utterly useless leeches who are an embarrasment and a waste of the hideously expensive education lavished on them. In a just world they'd be middle managers at Wal-Mart.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
They fell out a while ago, didn't they?HYUFD said:
Trump really needs those who have stuck with him because they believe he has the right policy solutions (and perhaps because they like the man) to show genuine concern at this stage over his mental health and legacy, and his impact on trust in US democracy.
Unfortunately, his pattern over the past four years has been to dump all those people for cynical "yes" men who are in it purely for their own careers (including access to the right wing news circuit, endorsement and money). If he had real friends or people wanting to give wise counsel, they have probably all long gone (or possibly Ivanka is the last woman standing - nobody else in the inner circle, older sons included, gives two sh1ts about the bloke).
It's all terribly sad in a way (although his own fault). He's the mega-lottery winner or football star who dumped his genuine friends in favour of fake ones, who will simply leach off him until he is a dry husk, then f*** off.0 -
you can get 70k at 1.02 for Biden to win the popular vote. I don't think even a fully compliant SC is going win Trump that one.Mysticrose said:For those of us following the Casino Royale 52% Biden vote share tip, some encouraging news:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325801372051181568?s=201 -
Up around 80% or more for the targeted strains, I think, though obviously will vary among vaccine/strain combinations (remember reading a paper a while back, may be able to find it again...)rpjs said:
Isn't the relatively low effectiveness of seasonal flu vaccines due to the manufacturers having to make a call on which strains they think will be prevalent each season? It'd be interesting to know the effectiveness of seasonal flu vaccines against the strains they target.HYUFD said:2 -
On my estimates, Biden falls just short, but DYOR.Quincel said:
Yes, I'm on that and while I'm thinking my 2/1 hasn't played out as value a lot of California votes would be very helpful. Even then though, assuming they split 2:1 Biden I don't think 3.6m votes is enough, we need some other states to come through (and there are places like NY/NJ with late votes coming in) too.Mysticrose said:For those of us following the Casino Royale 52% Biden vote share tip, some encouraging news:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325801372051181568?s=200 -
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Of the vaccine is 94% effective in preventing symptoms that means with 100% vaccination only 6% of people get symptoms and at a 0.5-1% CFR the upper ceiling on deaths in the UK would be somewhere around 16k-33k. I'd class that as acceptable and just open everything back up again.2
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Just a thought
We get a trade deal with the EU
The vaccine works and is rolled out across the UK
The economy improves quickly
Boris and Joe Biden lead the climate change debate and next year's conference is a great success
And Boris contradicts all of us who think he should go by staying and investing in the North as promised
Who knows but it is just possible
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Let's hope we'll soon be back to the old normal.Mysticrose said:How the world works
https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1325772537834442753?s=201 -
To be fair he does self identify as a looney.Scott_xP said:0 -
The total mail outstanding figure that was reported was 112,00p but that is simply the number of unreturned Mail ballots not the number received and still to be counted.rcs1000 said:
I have not, but the question I have is (and which you may know the answer to): is the total number outstanding simply the number of mail in ballots yet to be recieved? If so, they won't all come in (50% is probably generous).Alistair said:
Have you seen my NC ballot sleuthing? I reckon there is a max of 60,000 actual delivered ballots ready to be counted. Not enough to overturn the Senate or Presidential numbers.rcs1000 said:I'm slightly suspicious of https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html
Apparently 13 new ballots were dropped in North Carolina, and they split 50/50 between Biden and Trump...
Since Nov 3rd the number of received mail ballots has risen from 936k to 971k (plus a tiny number of overseas and military ballots)
https://dl.ncsbe.gov/?prefix=Press/NC Absentee Stats for 2020 General Election/
There's also other pages on the website that give an estimate of actual ballots to count. The important point is that they are all lower than 75k0 -
Fake self appointed experts in the media though....i have had plenty enough of them.Scott_xP said:1 -
Yeah, but that estimate of deaths should not be uttered by anyone of any significance. The government needs to get Labour onside.MaxPB said:Of the vaccine is 94% effective in preventing symptoms that means with 100% vaccination only 6% of people get symptoms and at a 0.5-1% CFR the upper ceiling on deaths in the UK would be somewhere around 16k-33k. I'd class that as acceptable and just open everything back up again.
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Or supervising the parking lot at a landscaping company.OnboardG1 said:His male spawn (with the exception of Barron who, fortunately, isn't old enough quite yet to have become like his brothers) are the ultimate failsons. They are utterly useless leeches who are an embarrasment and a waste of the hideously expensive education lavished on them. In a just world they'd be middle managers at Wal-Mart.
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Yes, I wish I'd seen that earlier - it's very useful. "Expand tables" gives you the whole history too.Quincel said:
How had I not seen that website before? Good to see North Carolina actually is doing some results.rcs1000 said:I'm slightly suspicious of https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html
Apparently 13 new ballots were dropped in North Carolina, and they split 50/50 between Biden and Trump...0 -
Though Kilcooney is no longer even in the UUP, he sits as a Crossbencher in the LordsScott_xP said:0 -
I was thinking more Schitt's Creek where the son ends up bagging the groceriesOnboardG1 said:
His male spawn (with the exception of Barron who, fortunately, isn't old enough quite yet to have become like his brothers) are the ultimate failsons. They are utterly useless leeches who are an embarrasment and a waste of the hideously expensive education lavished on them. In a just world they'd be middle managers at Wal-Mart.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
They fell out a while ago, didn't they?HYUFD said:
Trump really needs those who have stuck with him because they believe he has the right policy solutions (and perhaps because they like the man) to show genuine concern at this stage over his mental health and legacy, and his impact on trust in US democracy.
Unfortunately, his pattern over the past four years has been to dump all those people for cynical "yes" men who are in it purely for their own careers (including access to the right wing news circuit, endorsement and money). If he had real friends or people wanting to give wise counsel, they have probably all long gone (or possibly Ivanka is the last woman standing - nobody else in the inner circle, older sons included, gives two sh1ts about the bloke).
It's all terribly sad in a way (although his own fault). He's the mega-lottery winner or football star who dumped his genuine friends in favour of fake ones, who will simply leach off him until he is a dry husk, then f*** off.1 -
Oh, it's much more encouraging than that.MaxPB said:Of the vaccine is 94% effective in preventing symptoms that means with 100% vaccination only 6% of people get symptoms and at a 0.5-1% CFR the upper ceiling on deaths in the UK would be somewhere around 16k-33k. I'd class that as acceptable and just open everything back up again.
We can target the 5% of people most likely to pass it on first - medical staff and care home workers. Because your personal R is different from the population R. Target the high R population, and the medically vulnerable population, and you reduce the likely impact of the disease pretty quickly.
If AZN/Oxford works as well as Pfizer (which we don't know), *and* we get contracted doses on time (30m AZN by end of year, 10m Pfizer), then it's quite possible that the most vulnerable and most likely to transmit are all vaccinated by Easter. Most restrictions can then be lifted, and the rest of us can then get in line, and expect to be vaccinated in the following 12 months.0 -
I've not read the thread yet but Ladbrokes have paid me. Many thaks to jack and Alistair for persuading me the result was assured enough to to take a 1/6 bet0
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And I might get a date with Bradley CooperBig_G_NorthWales said:Just a thought
We get a trade deal with the EU
The vaccine works and is rolled out across the UK
The economy improves quickly
Boris and Joe Biden lead the climate change debate and next year's conference is a great success
And Boris contradicts all of us who think he should go by staying and investing in the North as promised
Who knows but it is just possible0 -
RCP still haven't called the election. They still have the race 259/214 for Biden.
Titter ....
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/0 -
Moderna is mRNA, but the Oxford vaccine is a vector.rcs1000 said:
Trump is going to be p1ssed.OnboardG1 said:For anyone who thinks Pfizer sat on the results: Didn't quite happen like that. They initially planned a 32 person interim review (ie when 32 people across the whole trial had covid) for the end of October which would have told them if the vaccine was effective, but regulators criticized that as being a bit premature. They agreed with the FDA to do a 64 person interim review and by the time the independent review team had done the unblinding they had 94 cases to work with. Still a fair bit of research to do to close the confidence intervals on the final effectiveness but it looks pretty damned solid.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/09/covid-19-vaccine-from-pfizer-and-biontech-is-strongly-effective-early-data-from-large-trial-indicate/
But this is great news because:
(1) It indicates other messenger RNA vaccines (like AZN/Oxford) are likely to work0 -
I'm working on the assumption of the vaccine not stopping people being infectious, just stopping symptoms.rcs1000 said:
Oh, it's much more encouraging than that.MaxPB said:Of the vaccine is 94% effective in preventing symptoms that means with 100% vaccination only 6% of people get symptoms and at a 0.5-1% CFR the upper ceiling on deaths in the UK would be somewhere around 16k-33k. I'd class that as acceptable and just open everything back up again.
We can target the 5% of people most likely to pass it on first - medical staff and care home workers. Because your personal R is different from the population R. Target the high R population, and the medically vulnerable population, and you reduce the likely impact of the disease pretty quickly.
If AZN/Oxford works as well as Pfizer (which we don't know), *and* we get contracted doses on time (30m AZN by end of year, 10m Pfizer), then it's quite possible that the most vulnerable and most likely to transmit are all vaccinated by Easter. Most restrictions can then be lifted, and the rest of us can then get in line, and expect to be vaccinated in the following 12 months.0 -
Oh you know how to spoil it all...12 months before I get a jab....rcs1000 said:
Oh, it's much more encouraging than that.MaxPB said:Of the vaccine is 94% effective in preventing symptoms that means with 100% vaccination only 6% of people get symptoms and at a 0.5-1% CFR the upper ceiling on deaths in the UK would be somewhere around 16k-33k. I'd class that as acceptable and just open everything back up again.
We can target the 5% of people most likely to pass it on first - medical staff and care home workers. Because your personal R is different from the population R. Target the high R population, and the medically vulnerable population, and you reduce the likely impact of the disease pretty quickly.
If AZN/Oxford works as well as Pfizer (which we don't know), *and* we get contracted doses on time (30m AZN by end of year, 10m Pfizer), then it's quite possible that the most vulnerable and most likely to transmit are all vaccinated by Easter. Most restrictions can then be lifted, and the rest of us can then get in line, and expect to be vaccinated in the following 12 months.0 -
It's available at 10 now.Quincel said:
Yes, I'm on that and while I'm thinking my 2/1 hasn't played out as value a lot of California votes would be very helpful. Even then though, assuming they split 2:1 Biden I don't think 3.6m votes is enough, we need some other states to come through (and there are places like NY/NJ with late votes coming in) too.Mysticrose said:For those of us following the Casino Royale 52% Biden vote share tip, some encouraging news:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325801372051181568?s=20
I've topped up. Value.0 -
It's still a steal at 10/1.rcs1000 said:
On my estimates, Biden falls just short, but DYOR.Quincel said:
Yes, I'm on that and while I'm thinking my 2/1 hasn't played out as value a lot of California votes would be very helpful. Even then though, assuming they split 2:1 Biden I don't think 3.6m votes is enough, we need some other states to come through (and there are places like NY/NJ with late votes coming in) too.Mysticrose said:For those of us following the Casino Royale 52% Biden vote share tip, some encouraging news:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325801372051181568?s=200 -
there is £4.8k at 1.02 for biden to get more than 75m votes. he already has.
£540 at 1.01 for trump to get more than 70m votes. he already has.
https://time.com/5906423/2020-election-results/
don't understand why these arent settled. would need over a million votes chalking off to make them losers.
0 -
This is well worth a listen. David Frost interviewing Joe Biden, later joined by Jill. From the 1980s. The interview as never broadcast at the time as he dropped out of the race for the nomination.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p08v4nhf?xtor=CS8-1000-[Discovery_Cards]-[Multi_Site]-[SL02]-[PS_SOUNDS~N~~TheFrostTapesFrostBidenBonus
1 -
That picture, with the rusted gantry, and the Trump stickers stuck hopelessly onto a garage door in a square formation, is going to live in the annals of the marvellously surreal, forever.Richard_Nabavi said:0 -
My wife was in the same class (i.e. intake) as Don Jr. at Penn. One of her friends well remembers seeing Jr. sitting outside his frat house, beer in hand, looking, as she put it, "lost".OnboardG1 said:
His male spawn (with the exception of Barron who, fortunately, isn't old enough quite yet to have become like his brothers) are the ultimate failsons. They are utterly useless leeches who are an embarrasment and a waste of the hideously expensive education lavished on them. In a just world they'd be middle managers at Wal-Mart.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
They fell out a while ago, didn't they?HYUFD said:
Trump really needs those who have stuck with him because they believe he has the right policy solutions (and perhaps because they like the man) to show genuine concern at this stage over his mental health and legacy, and his impact on trust in US democracy.
Unfortunately, his pattern over the past four years has been to dump all those people for cynical "yes" men who are in it purely for their own careers (including access to the right wing news circuit, endorsement and money). If he had real friends or people wanting to give wise counsel, they have probably all long gone (or possibly Ivanka is the last woman standing - nobody else in the inner circle, older sons included, gives two sh1ts about the bloke).
It's all terribly sad in a way (although his own fault). He's the mega-lottery winner or football star who dumped his genuine friends in favour of fake ones, who will simply leach off him until he is a dry husk, then f*** off.0 -
It's wonderful, isn't it?WhisperingOracle said:
That picture, with the rusted gantry, and the Trump stickers hopelessly stuck on a garage door in a square formation, is going to live in the annals of the marvellously surreal, forever.Richard_Nabavi said:1 -
So that's 5.5 million aged 75+, or working in Care Homes:
https://twitter.com/LordRic52/status/1325777443253260288?s=20
And given the priority list is:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1325776285860245504?s=20
There's the first batch (10 million doses, 2 per patient) of Pfixer vaccine accounted for. Slightly surprised that "NHS clinical staff" not on the priority list....0 -
Maybe the calculation is they've had it by then. But that's pretty cold-blooded. More likely someone just didn;t think that some vaccines come in more than one dose.CarlottaVance said:So that's 5.5 million aged 75+, or working in Care Homes:
https://twitter.com/LordRic52/status/1325777443253260288?s=20
And given the priority list is:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1325776285860245504?s=20
There's the first batch (10 million doses, 2 per patient) of Pfixer vaccine accounted for. Slightly surprised that "NHS clinical staff" not on the priority list....0 -
Oops. You're right.Chris said:
Moderna is mRNA, but the Oxford vaccine is a vector.rcs1000 said:
Trump is going to be p1ssed.OnboardG1 said:For anyone who thinks Pfizer sat on the results: Didn't quite happen like that. They initially planned a 32 person interim review (ie when 32 people across the whole trial had covid) for the end of October which would have told them if the vaccine was effective, but regulators criticized that as being a bit premature. They agreed with the FDA to do a 64 person interim review and by the time the independent review team had done the unblinding they had 94 cases to work with. Still a fair bit of research to do to close the confidence intervals on the final effectiveness but it looks pretty damned solid.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/09/covid-19-vaccine-from-pfizer-and-biontech-is-strongly-effective-early-data-from-large-trial-indicate/
But this is great news because:
(1) It indicates other messenger RNA vaccines (like AZN/Oxford) are likely to work0 -
Same with winning the popular vote. Doubt they'll be settled until California has finished, which will probably be last. So a couple of weeks.paulyork64 said:there is £4.8k at 1.02 for biden to get more than 75m votes. he already has.
£540 at 1.01 for trump to get more than 70m votes. he already has.
https://time.com/5906423/2020-election-results/
don't understand why these arent settled. would need over a million votes chalking off to make them losers.
Betfair probably want to hang onto the cash and liquidity.0 -
lt's already been announced that we're only going to get 4m, not 30m, doses of the Oxford vaccine by the end of the year (and not even that is definite, and of course it's also two doses per person).rcs1000 said:
Oh, it's much more encouraging than that.MaxPB said:Of the vaccine is 94% effective in preventing symptoms that means with 100% vaccination only 6% of people get symptoms and at a 0.5-1% CFR the upper ceiling on deaths in the UK would be somewhere around 16k-33k. I'd class that as acceptable and just open everything back up again.
We can target the 5% of people most likely to pass it on first - medical staff and care home workers. Because your personal R is different from the population R. Target the high R population, and the medically vulnerable population, and you reduce the likely impact of the disease pretty quickly.
If AZN/Oxford works as well as Pfizer (which we don't know), *and* we get contracted doses on time (30m AZN by end of year, 10m Pfizer), then it's quite possible that the most vulnerable and most likely to transmit are all vaccinated by Easter. Most restrictions can then be lifted, and the rest of us can then get in line, and expect to be vaccinated in the following 12 months.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-astrazenec/delivery-timetable-for-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-slips-uk-official-says-idUKKBN27K2GU
But supposedly 100m next year are still expected.
And of course if it's 94% that means the percentage with symptoms in the vaccinated group is only 6% of that in the control group. Given that half or more of cases could be asymptomatic anyway, the percentage liable to have symptomatic infections after vaccination might be only 2% or 3%.0 -
Just saw an interview with Senator Chris Coons (Dem - Delaware) who is very close to Biden. Surprisingly positive about Boris who he has met and found to be quite different from public image in US and much more in tune with the thinking of Biden team on issues like climate change.Roy_G_Biv said:
And I might get a date with Bradley CooperBig_G_NorthWales said:Just a thought
We get a trade deal with the EU
The vaccine works and is rolled out across the UK
The economy improves quickly
Boris and Joe Biden lead the climate change debate and next year's conference is a great success
And Boris contradicts all of us who think he should go by staying and investing in the North as promised
Who knows but it is just possible
I think the stuff about there being a problem in the relationship between POTUS and PM is misplaced. They'll likely get on fine and will be singing from the same songsheet in Glasgow.
Suspect HYUFD is spot on about a Brexit deal as well.2 -
We've done a write-up of the IP issues surrounding the roll-out of Pfizer's covid-19 vaccine:
https://www.iam-media.com/coronavirus/pfizers-covid-vaccine-found-90-effective-raises-ip-questions1 -
Still don’t see Betfair setting anything until all results are properly certified and there’s no chance of any further challenges. They’re just a broker, have customers on both sides and will be risk-averse in calling anything.2
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I seem to remember my winnings on Donald Trump took ages to materialise in 2016 ;-)Sandpit said:Still don’t see Betfair setting anything until all results are properly certified and there’s no chance of any further challenges. They’re just a broker, have customers on both sides and will be risk-averse in calling anything.
0 -
You're on the early series. 1 or 2.MrEd said:
I was thinking more Schitt's Creek where the son ends up bagging the groceriesOnboardG1 said:
His male spawn (with the exception of Barron who, fortunately, isn't old enough quite yet to have become like his brothers) are the ultimate failsons. They are utterly useless leeches who are an embarrasment and a waste of the hideously expensive education lavished on them. In a just world they'd be middle managers at Wal-Mart.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
They fell out a while ago, didn't they?HYUFD said:
Trump really needs those who have stuck with him because they believe he has the right policy solutions (and perhaps because they like the man) to show genuine concern at this stage over his mental health and legacy, and his impact on trust in US democracy.
Unfortunately, his pattern over the past four years has been to dump all those people for cynical "yes" men who are in it purely for their own careers (including access to the right wing news circuit, endorsement and money). If he had real friends or people wanting to give wise counsel, they have probably all long gone (or possibly Ivanka is the last woman standing - nobody else in the inner circle, older sons included, gives two sh1ts about the bloke).
It's all terribly sad in a way (although his own fault). He's the mega-lottery winner or football star who dumped his genuine friends in favour of fake ones, who will simply leach off him until he is a dry husk, then f*** off.0 -
Yes, I heard that last night. He didn't seem very likeable. Perhaps that was just culture clash (US vs UK). The tale of how he met Jill also seemed a bit ... odd.Burgessian said:This is well worth a listen. David Frost interviewing Joe Biden, later joined by Jill. From the 1980s. The interview as never broadcast at the time as he dropped out of the race for the nomination.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p08v4nhf?xtor=CS8-1000-[Discovery_Cards]-[Multi_Site]-[SL02]-[PS_SOUNDS~N~~TheFrostTapesFrostBidenBonus0 -
Still rather contingent on the Internal Market Bill about being able to ignore the rule of law and tear up the GFA etc at will.Burgessian said:
Just saw an interview with Senator Chris Coons (Dem - Delaware) who is very close to Biden. Surprisingly positive about Boris who he has met and found to be quite different from public image in US and much more in tune with the thinking of Biden team on issues like climate change.Roy_G_Biv said:
And I might get a date with Bradley CooperBig_G_NorthWales said:Just a thought
We get a trade deal with the EU
The vaccine works and is rolled out across the UK
The economy improves quickly
Boris and Joe Biden lead the climate change debate and next year's conference is a great success
And Boris contradicts all of us who think he should go by staying and investing in the North as promised
Who knows but it is just possible
I think the stuff about there being a problem in the relationship between POTUS and PM is misplaced. They'll likely get on fine and will be singing from the same songsheet in Glasgow.
Suspect HYUFD is spot on about a Brexit deal as well.0 -
In theory he could be suspended or expelled by the House of Lords Privileges and Conduct Committee following a report from the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards.MightyAlex said:
It's not totally clear what part of the House of Lords Code of Conduct he's broken (there are some specific rules in there over finances, bullying etc, but this is more general arseholery). However, they might get him on the blanket requirement for Lords to "act on their personal honour" which is nice and vague.0 -
Is he the looney that wants to partition Scotland if they vote for independence ?Scott_xP said:0 -
I agree. Frustrating for those of us who are on to winners but I'd do the same in their shoes. If they settle too early it's not so easy for them to unwind and paying out twice isn't their idea of marketing.Sandpit said:Still don’t see Betfair setting anything until all results are properly certified and there’s no chance of any further challenges. They’re just a broker, have customers on both sides and will be risk-averse in calling anything.
0 -
I understand the IP issues involved, but is this really the time to get into protracted legal disputes over licencing? Seriously - people are dying, economies are being crippled, etc etc.SouthamObserver said:We've done a write-up of the IP issues surrounding the roll-out of Pfizer's covid-19 vaccine:
https://www.iam-media.com/coronavirus/pfizers-covid-vaccine-found-90-effective-raises-ip-questions
If ever there was a case for "sort it out later" this is surely it?2 -
Presumably he felt a bit queasy once he realised the sort of company he was in.Richard_Nabavi said:1
