So today's announcement seems to vindicate the "hunker down and wait for a vaccine" approach to the virus as opposed to the main mooted alternative of "we need to find a way to live with it long term".
But of course not our deeply sub-optimal execution of that approach.
Well start to finish i.e. by the time the wider population has got vaccinated is probably going to be 18 months. Swedish egghead said we all needed a plan for 2 years.
I doubt it will take that long. If the AZ vaccine proves as effective then it will be done in 5-8 months. It's literally the silver bullet to having a working economy again, expect absolutely gigantic sums to be spent on vaccination programmes across the world.
Well there is probably another month at least before more data and approval. Some roll out in December, then lets be optimistic, 6 months of full blast, that's August 2021, that's 18 months.
I've got a bet on Trump winning Alaska and by the time it settles the AER% on my profit will be worse than a bank account. Do they have some principled objection to vote counting?
Perhaps you should check the NYT election results, which clearly state that, in Alaska, "No mail or other absentee ballots will be counted until about a week after the election."
I did, and I know that. This is precisely my (mostly mock) frustration. Why wait so long?
Big knees up down the pub for Christmas and massive New Year's party to hopefully celebrate 2 working vaccines....
I think Boris really has to make it clear, there is still a huge danger, we probably have at least another 6 months of restrictions ahead of us and if we don't follow the rules 10,000s of extra people will die.
This really has to be hammered home.
No, people need to force the government to move quickly with the vaccine. A bit of rule breaking will be a healthy motivator for them.
Big knees up down the pub for Christmas and massive New Year's party to hopefully celebrate 2 working vaccines....
I think Boris really has to make it clear, there is still a huge danger, we probably have at least another 6 months of restrictions ahead of us and if we don't follow the rules 10,000s of extra people will die.
This really has to be hammered home.
Arguably this news should lead to tighter restrictions. Think of how many lives could be saved between now and the vaccine coming.
Re the ignoble Lord Kilclooney, note that (according to Wiki) in 2017 "was forced to deny he was racist after referring to Taoiseach Leo Varadkar in a tweet as "the Indian".
Big knees up down the pub for Christmas and massive New Year's party to hopefully celebrate 2 working vaccines....
I think Boris really has to make it clear, there is still a huge danger, we probably have at least another 6 months of restrictions ahead of us and if we don't follow the rules 10,000s of extra people will die.
This really has to be hammered home.
Arguably this news should lead to tighter restrictions. Think of how many lives could be saved between now and the vaccine coming.
And when the cases fall because of strict lockdown all the pressure to actually get the vaccine out there goes away. We've seen that the machinery of the state seems to only act under the most extreme pressure. Reducing that will just mean they get lazy because it stops being a priority. They wil use lockdowns as a medium term replacement for the vaccine.
I hope he never reads it, he's got better things to do with his time, in the same way I hope Boris never reads anything that a random low level congressman were to send to him to complain.
Trump really needs those who have stuck with him because they believe he has the right policy solutions (and perhaps because they like the man) to show genuine concern at this stage over his mental health and legacy, and his impact on trust in US democracy.
Unfortunately, his pattern over the past four years has been to dump all those people for cynical "yes" men who are in it purely for their own careers (including access to the right wing news circuit, endorsement and money). If he had real friends or people wanting to give wise counsel, they have probably all long gone (or possibly Ivanka is the last woman standing - nobody else in the inner circle, older sons included, gives two sh1ts about the bloke).
It's all terribly sad in a way (although his own fault). He's the mega-lottery winner or football star who dumped his genuine friends in favour of fake ones, who will simply leach off him until he is a dry husk, then f*** off.
He's turning into King Lear isn't he? As long as it doesn't all end up with an unsuccessful invasion by the French and someone have his eyes gouged out...
Big knees up down the pub for Christmas and massive New Year's party to hopefully celebrate 2 working vaccines....
I think Boris really has to make it clear, there is still a huge danger, we probably have at least another 6 months of restrictions ahead of us and if we don't follow the rules 10,000s of extra people will die.
That's from August. It may be there will be more appetite for it now that it looks like being much more effective than expected, but who knows? Bear in mind that Kate bloody Bingham was saying in the FT a few weeks back that the under 50s might be better off not getting it because of possible side effects.
So today's announcement seems to vindicate the "hunker down and wait for a vaccine" approach to the virus as opposed to the main mooted alternative of "we need to find a way to live with it long term".
But of course not our deeply sub-optimal execution of that approach.
Well start to finish i.e. by the time the wider population has got vaccinated is probably going to be 18 months. Swedish egghead said we all needed a plan for 2 years.
I doubt it will take that long. If the AZ vaccine proves as effective then it will be done in 5-8 months. It's literally the silver bullet to having a working economy again, expect absolutely gigantic sums to be spent on vaccination programmes across the world.
Well there is probably another month at least before more data and approval. Some roll out in December, then lets be optimistic, 6 months of full blast, that's August 2021, that's 18 months.
I think there will be two phases. The first will be a race to get enough people vaccinated that the R number will fall below 1 even without restrictions on the general population (though obviously contact tracing and isolation of people who are infected will need to continue). The second will be a longer-term mopping-up operation.
Given that perhaps as many as 20% in the UK may already have been infected, I am hopeful the first phase may be quicker than people expect, if the supply of vaccine is adequate. Though the snag is that the most vulnerable people, who will have the highest priority for vaccination, are probably the least prone to spread infection, on average.
Can't think why they swung away from Donald 'War Dead Are Losers' Trump.
Trump just couldn't resist othering any group not offering total fealty, could he? Eventually he assembled a goodly coalition. He just wasn't great at politics.
So today's announcement seems to vindicate the "hunker down and wait for a vaccine" approach to the virus as opposed to the main mooted alternative of "we need to find a way to live with it long term".
But of course not our deeply sub-optimal execution of that approach.
Yes, I`ve been pondering this today, this does indeed seem to be the nub of it. You`ve summed it up nicely.
I`ve been a vocal proponent of the latter. Today`s news inspires hope, but I`m not quite ready to admit I was wrong and that the mother of all gambles has paid off quite yet. Seemed to me that hunkering down caused way to much damage in the hope of a vaccine-shaped silver bullet. But if one appears, works and can get administered prior to, say, the spring, and approximate normality is restored, I`ll happily admit I was wrong.
Yes, this is one where we all - including you - must hope you are proved wrong.
I'm feeling very positive in general today but some of it is probably Trump Toast bleeding into other matters. For example, it's just started raining here and I'm going to pop out and enjoy the feeling of it trickling down my neck. I wouldn't normally do that.
Big knees up down the pub for Christmas and massive New Year's party to hopefully celebrate 2 working vaccines....
I think Boris really has to make it clear, there is still a huge danger, we probably have at least another 6 months of restrictions ahead of us and if we don't follow the rules 10,000s of extra people will die.
This really has to be hammered home.
Arguably this news should lead to tighter restrictions. Think of how many lives could be saved between now and the vaccine coming.
You've got to think of the economic cost, jobs lost, lives ruined, mental health collateral damage and huge debts run up (limiting future state help) against that as well. And what would those tighter restrictions be? Closing schools?
No thanks. Loosen for Christmas and the NY and then allow normal life with local lockdowns, as required, through to March/April by which time hopefully other things can be lifted.
We can then deal with the FUBAR fall-out and come up with a long-term economic plan.
It's not ideal for any American president to get on the wrong side of John Redwood, this is true, but Joe is tough old boot. I remember during the campaign he felt the sharp end of Iain Duncan Smith's tongue and he managed to ride that storm.
Looking at Redwood and Duncan Smith, it's interesting that two men ostensibly at opposite ends of the intelligence spectrum have ended up espousing such similar views. You might have thought it would have given Redwood at least some pause for thought.
It's not ideal for any American president to get on the wrong side of John Redwood, this is true, but Joe is tough old boot. I remember during the campaign he felt the sharp end of Iain Duncan Smith's tongue and he managed to ride that storm.
Looking at Redwood and Duncan Smith, it's interesting that two men ostensibly at opposite ends of the intelligence spectrum have ended up espousing such similar views. You might have thought it would have given Redwood at least some pause for thought.
Sadly, the one developed country which probably won't get the full economic benefit from a vaccine is the UK, which has chosen to impose economic sanctions on itself from Jan 1st.
Big knees up down the pub for Christmas and massive New Year's party to hopefully celebrate 2 working vaccines....
I think Boris really has to make it clear, there is still a huge danger, we probably have at least another 6 months of restrictions ahead of us and if we don't follow the rules 10,000s of extra people will die.
That's from August. It may be there will be more appetite for it now that it looks like being much more effective than expected, but who knows? Bear in mind that Kate bloody Bingham was saying in the FT a few weeks back that the under 50s might be better off not getting it because of possible side effects.
There is still scope for an epic cockup.
I find it literally unbelievable that she could have been so stupid as to say that. Could she really not have been aware of the concerns about the uptake of vaccination? Equally, did she really plan to unleash a vaccine with dangerous side effects on the public? Inexplicable.
Big knees up down the pub for Christmas and massive New Year's party to hopefully celebrate 2 working vaccines....
I think Boris really has to make it clear, there is still a huge danger, we probably have at least another 6 months of restrictions ahead of us and if we don't follow the rules 10,000s of extra people will die.
That's from August. It may be there will be more appetite for it now that it looks like being much more effective than expected, but who knows? Bear in mind that Kate bloody Bingham was saying in the FT a few weeks back that the under 50s might be better off not getting it because of possible side effects.
There is still scope for an epic cockup.
I find it literally unbelievable that she could have been so stupid as to say that. Could she really not have been aware of the concerns about the uptake of vaccination? Equally, did she really plan to unleash a vaccine with dangerous side effects on the public? Inexplicable.
Can't think why they swung away from Donald 'War Dead Are Losers' Trump.
Trump just couldn't resist othering any group not offering total fealty, could he? Eventually he assembled a goodly coalition. He just wasn't great at politics.
The next neofascist will be far better at it. America has been warned.
Re; the Trump future options discussion below, I wondered recently whether Trump might not just disappear off to somewhere like Monaco in the New Year, and set up Trump TV from there. What are the extradition arrangements between places like that and the U.S. ?
That reminded me of something that used to be on TV in the middle of the night decades ago.
But can anyone explain why a Google Image Search for "Patrick Wayne Ploom the Caterpillar" should bring up photos of Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro and Boris Johnson?
Why a Google Image Search for "Patrick Wayne Ploom the Caterpillar" ?
I'm struggling to see the fuss with the Redwood letter, and it's politely worded. Yes, he blames the EU - as you'd expect - but it's not unpleasant or totally barking.
The only thing I raised an eyebrow at is the EURef winning margin being a hostage to fortune - it's *possible* Biden bests that, so I wouldn't have included it.
So today's announcement seems to vindicate the "hunker down and wait for a vaccine" approach to the virus as opposed to the main mooted alternative of "we need to find a way to live with it long term".
But of course not our deeply sub-optimal execution of that approach.
Well start to finish i.e. by the time the wider population has got vaccinated is probably going to be 18 months. Swedish egghead said we all needed a plan for 2 years.
I doubt it will take that long. If the AZ vaccine proves as effective then it will be done in 5-8 months. It's literally the silver bullet to having a working economy again, expect absolutely gigantic sums to be spent on vaccination programmes across the world.
Well there is probably another month at least before more data and approval. Some roll out in December, then lets be optimistic, 6 months of full blast, that's August 2021, that's 18 months.
I think there will be two phases. The first will be a race to get enough people vaccinated that the R number will fall below 1 even without restrictions on the general population (though obviously contact tracing and isolation of people who are infected will need to continue). The second will be a longer-term mopping-up operation.
Given that perhaps as many as 20% in the UK may already have been infected, I am hopeful the first phase may be quicker than people expect, if the supply of vaccine is adequate. Though the snag is that the most vulnerable people, who will have the highest priority for vaccination, are probably the least prone to spread infection, on average.
I'm an "extremely vulnerable" person who is currently in no position to spread anything to any one as I'm working from home again and only going outside for exercise. On the other hand vaccinating me would get me back in front of my classes and save a fair bit in cover teacher costs.
Re; the Trump future options discussion below, I wondered recently whether Trump might not just disappear off to somewhere like Monaco in the New Year, and set up Trump TV from there. What are the extradition arrangements between places like that and the U.S. ?
That reminded me of something that used to be on TV in the middle of the night decades ago.
But can anyone explain why a Google Image Search for "Patrick Wayne Ploom the Caterpillar" should bring up photos of Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro and Boris Johnson?
Why a Google Image Search for "Patrick Wayne Ploom the Caterpillar" ?
I'm struggling to see the fuss with the Redwood letter, and it's politely worded. Yes, he blames the EU - as you'd expect - but it's not unpleasant or totally barking.
The only thing I raised an eyebrow at is the EURef winning margin being a hostage to fortune - it's *possible* Biden bests that, so I wouldn't have included it.
It's also irrelevant, not like either Biden or Brexit are going anywhere due to a narrow margin.
Whether Biden gets to 52% I'm not sure, but thanks to 3rd party votes I imagine he'll have a wider margin over Trump.
I'm struggling to see the fuss with the Redwood letter, and it's politely worded. Yes, he blames the EU - as you'd expect - but it's not unpleasant or totally barking.
The only thing I raised an eyebrow at is the EURef winning margin being a hostage to fortune - it's *possible* Biden bests that, so I wouldn't have included it.
There's no problem with it. The letter is hilarious.
Rare to see 100% anywhere in a poll, and hats off to both of my fellow endangered lesser spotted Lib Dems whom YouGov somehow managed to hunt down to answer the question.
They didn't ask me so there are more of us out there than I thought.
I'm struggling to see the fuss with the Redwood letter, and it's politely worded. Yes, he blames the EU - as you'd expect - but it's not unpleasant or totally barking.
The only thing I raised an eyebrow at is the EURef winning margin being a hostage to fortune - it's *possible* Biden bests that, so I wouldn't have included it.
Just read the Redwood letter. It's as embarrassing as it is misguided.
It's not ideal for any American president to get on the wrong side of John Redwood, this is true, but Joe is tough old boot. I remember during the campaign he felt the sharp end of Iain Duncan Smith's tongue and he managed to ride that storm.
Looking at Redwood and Duncan Smith, it's interesting that two men ostensibly at opposite ends of the intelligence spectrum have ended up espousing such similar views. You might have thought it would have given Redwood at least some pause for thought.
Yes, Redwood is a total brainbox by all accounts. I was a bit surprised when I heard that and felt the need to check up on it, but yep - he is.
Big knees up down the pub for Christmas and massive New Year's party to hopefully celebrate 2 working vaccines....
I think Boris really has to make it clear, there is still a huge danger, we probably have at least another 6 months of restrictions ahead of us and if we don't follow the rules 10,000s of extra people will die.
That's from August. It may be there will be more appetite for it now that it looks like being much more effective than expected, but who knows? Bear in mind that Kate bloody Bingham was saying in the FT a few weeks back that the under 50s might be better off not getting it because of possible side effects.
There is still scope for an epic cockup.
I find it literally unbelievable that she could have been so stupid as to say that. Could she really not have been aware of the concerns about the uptake of vaccination? Equally, did she really plan to unleash a vaccine with dangerous side effects on the public? Inexplicable.
"Ms Bingham said vaccination policy would be aimed at those “most at risk” and noted that vaccinating healthy people, who are much less likely to have severe outcomes from Covid-19, “could cause them some freak harm”, potentially tipping the scales in terms of the risk-benefit analysis."
Biden briefing impressive - talking about how mask wearing can make a difference, stressing unity. I guess Boris is waiting until Biden finishes.
Do you think he can give Pelosi some lessons on how to wear one properly? I saw her being interviewed the other day and she kept fiddling with it as it slipped down past he nose every few seconds.
So today's announcement seems to vindicate the "hunker down and wait for a vaccine" approach to the virus as opposed to the main mooted alternative of "we need to find a way to live with it long term".
But of course not our deeply sub-optimal execution of that approach.
Well start to finish i.e. by the time the wider population has got vaccinated is probably going to be 18 months. Swedish egghead said we all needed a plan for 2 years.
I doubt it will take that long. If the AZ vaccine proves as effective then it will be done in 5-8 months. It's literally the silver bullet to having a working economy again, expect absolutely gigantic sums to be spent on vaccination programmes across the world.
Well there is probably another month at least before more data and approval. Some roll out in December, then lets be optimistic, 6 months of full blast, that's August 2021, that's 18 months.
I think there will be two phases. The first will be a race to get enough people vaccinated that the R number will fall below 1 even without restrictions on the general population (though obviously contact tracing and isolation of people who are infected will need to continue). The second will be a longer-term mopping-up operation.
Given that perhaps as many as 20% in the UK may already have been infected, I am hopeful the first phase may be quicker than people expect, if the supply of vaccine is adequate. Though the snag is that the most vulnerable people, who will have the highest priority for vaccination, are probably the least prone to spread infection, on average.
I'm an "extremely vulnerable" person who is currently in no position to spread anything to any one as I'm working from home again and only going outside for exercise. On the other hand vaccinating me would get me back in front of my classes and save a fair bit in cover teacher costs.
I just mean that because - quite rightly - we'll be vaccinating the most vulnerable first, the R number won't drop as fast as it would have done if we'd vaccinated low-risk super-spreaders first.
On the other hand, I think there's a lot in the argument that the percentage necessary for herd immunity will be a lot lower than the conventional figure of 60-70%, because the estimates of R that figure is based on reflect the people most likely to get and spread the virus, not the population as a whole.
Big knees up down the pub for Christmas and massive New Year's party to hopefully celebrate 2 working vaccines....
I think Boris really has to make it clear, there is still a huge danger, we probably have at least another 6 months of restrictions ahead of us and if we don't follow the rules 10,000s of extra people will die.
That's from August. It may be there will be more appetite for it now that it looks like being much more effective than expected, but who knows? Bear in mind that Kate bloody Bingham was saying in the FT a few weeks back that the under 50s might be better off not getting it because of possible side effects.
There is still scope for an epic cockup.
I find it literally unbelievable that she could have been so stupid as to say that. Could she really not have been aware of the concerns about the uptake of vaccination? Equally, did she really plan to unleash a vaccine with dangerous side effects on the public? Inexplicable.
"Ms Bingham said vaccination policy would be aimed at those “most at risk” and noted that vaccinating healthy people, who are much less likely to have severe outcomes from Covid-19, “could cause them some freak harm”, potentially tipping the scales in terms of the risk-benefit analysis."
It's not ideal for any American president to get on the wrong side of John Redwood, this is true, but Joe is tough old boot. I remember during the campaign he felt the sharp end of Iain Duncan Smith's tongue and he managed to ride that storm.
Looking at Redwood and Duncan Smith, it's interesting that two men ostensibly at opposite ends of the intelligence spectrum have ended up espousing such similar views. You might have thought it would have given Redwood at least some pause for thought.
Yes, Redwood is a total brainbox by all accounts. I was a bit surprised when I heard that and felt the need to check up on it, but yep - he is.
Yes, he is. I attended an event in which he was speaking. Very impressive guy. That was 20 years ago though; he`s getting on a bit now. Age dulls the faculties I suppose - not me of course - not there yet - "controlling our own fish" FFS.
Re; the Trump future options discussion below, I wondered recently whether Trump might not just disappear off to somewhere like Monaco in the New Year, and set up Trump TV from there. What are the extradition arrangements between places like that and the U.S. ?
That reminded me of something that used to be on TV in the middle of the night decades ago.
But can anyone explain why a Google Image Search for "Patrick Wayne Ploom the Caterpillar" should bring up photos of Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro and Boris Johnson?
Why a Google Image Search for "Patrick Wayne Ploom the Caterpillar" ?
Sorry - I should have explained. Ploom the Caterpillar was Patrick Wayne's co-star in "The Monte Carlo Show". I wondered whether s/he might still be available to appear with Donald Trump, if he set up Trump TV in Monaco as WhisperingOracle suggested.
So today's announcement seems to vindicate the "hunker down and wait for a vaccine" approach to the virus as opposed to the main mooted alternative of "we need to find a way to live with it long term".
But of course not our deeply sub-optimal execution of that approach.
Well start to finish i.e. by the time the wider population has got vaccinated is probably going to be 18 months. Swedish egghead said we all needed a plan for 2 years.
I doubt it will take that long. If the AZ vaccine proves as effective then it will be done in 5-8 months. It's literally the silver bullet to having a working economy again, expect absolutely gigantic sums to be spent on vaccination programmes across the world.
Well there is probably another month at least before more data and approval. Some roll out in December, then lets be optimistic, 6 months of full blast, that's August 2021, that's 18 months.
I think there will be two phases. The first will be a race to get enough people vaccinated that the R number will fall below 1 even without restrictions on the general population (though obviously contact tracing and isolation of people who are infected will need to continue). The second will be a longer-term mopping-up operation.
Given that perhaps as many as 20% in the UK may already have been infected, I am hopeful the first phase may be quicker than people expect, if the supply of vaccine is adequate. Though the snag is that the most vulnerable people, who will have the highest priority for vaccination, are probably the least prone to spread infection, on average.
I'm an "extremely vulnerable" person who is currently in no position to spread anything to any one as I'm working from home again and only going outside for exercise. On the other hand vaccinating me would get me back in front of my classes and save a fair bit in cover teacher costs.
I just mean that because - quite rightly - we'll be vaccinating the most vulnerable first, the R number won't drop as fast as it would have done if we'd vaccinated low-risk super-spreaders first.
On the other hand, I think there's a lot in the argument that the percentage necessary for herd immunity will be a lot lower than the conventional figure of 60-70%, because the estimates of R that figure is based on reflect the people most likely to get and spread the virus, not the population as a whole.
I think I would start with NHS staff, carers, and shop staff and/or transport workers: those most likely to catch it and then spread it if they have it.
I can`t believe I`m still picking up 1.19 on BF 210-239 Trump ECVs. There are some fools about. Unless he wins Arizona or Georgia - then the fool will be me.
I can`t believe I`m still picking up 1.19 on BF 210-239 Trump ECVs. There are some fools about. Unless he wins Arizona or Georgia - then the fool will be me.
You can get similar on the 48.5 handicap market, and there Arizona wouldn't lose you the bet.
Let's hope it isn't the Charge of the Light Brigade.
In terms of cavalry charges that isn't close to being the worst; there is just a famous poem about it. At Waterloo the French cavalry were pretty instrumental in winning the battle for the Allies by blocking the French artillery from firing at the British squares long enough for the Prussians to arrive.
So today's announcement seems to vindicate the "hunker down and wait for a vaccine" approach to the virus as opposed to the main mooted alternative of "we need to find a way to live with it long term".
But of course not our deeply sub-optimal execution of that approach.
Well start to finish i.e. by the time the wider population has got vaccinated is probably going to be 18 months. Swedish egghead said we all needed a plan for 2 years.
I doubt it will take that long. If the AZ vaccine proves as effective then it will be done in 5-8 months. It's literally the silver bullet to having a working economy again, expect absolutely gigantic sums to be spent on vaccination programmes across the world.
Well there is probably another month at least before more data and approval. Some roll out in December, then lets be optimistic, 6 months of full blast, that's August 2021, that's 18 months.
I think there will be two phases. The first will be a race to get enough people vaccinated that the R number will fall below 1 even without restrictions on the general population (though obviously contact tracing and isolation of people who are infected will need to continue). The second will be a longer-term mopping-up operation.
Given that perhaps as many as 20% in the UK may already have been infected, I am hopeful the first phase may be quicker than people expect, if the supply of vaccine is adequate. Though the snag is that the most vulnerable people, who will have the highest priority for vaccination, are probably the least prone to spread infection, on average.
I'm an "extremely vulnerable" person who is currently in no position to spread anything to any one as I'm working from home again and only going outside for exercise. On the other hand vaccinating me would get me back in front of my classes and save a fair bit in cover teacher costs.
I just mean that because - quite rightly - we'll be vaccinating the most vulnerable first, the R number won't drop as fast as it would have done if we'd vaccinated low-risk super-spreaders first.
On the other hand, I think there's a lot in the argument that the percentage necessary for herd immunity will be a lot lower than the conventional figure of 60-70%, because the estimates of R that figure is based on reflect the people most likely to get and spread the virus, not the population as a whole.
I think I would start with NHS staff, carers, and shop staff and/or transport workers: those most likely to catch it and then spread it if they have it.
Edit: oh, and teachers!
Sod the teachers. It's the children who spread it, symptomlessly. Typhoid Mary is sitting in the second row of class 2B.
Big knees up down the pub for Christmas and massive New Year's party to hopefully celebrate 2 working vaccines....
I think Boris really has to make it clear, there is still a huge danger, we probably have at least another 6 months of restrictions ahead of us and if we don't follow the rules 10,000s of extra people will die.
That's from August. It may be there will be more appetite for it now that it looks like being much more effective than expected, but who knows? Bear in mind that Kate bloody Bingham was saying in the FT a few weeks back that the under 50s might be better off not getting it because of possible side effects.
There is still scope for an epic cockup.
I find it literally unbelievable that she could have been so stupid as to say that. Could she really not have been aware of the concerns about the uptake of vaccination? Equally, did she really plan to unleash a vaccine with dangerous side effects on the public? Inexplicable.
"Ms Bingham said vaccination policy would be aimed at those “most at risk” and noted that vaccinating healthy people, who are much less likely to have severe outcomes from Covid-19, “could cause them some freak harm”, potentially tipping the scales in terms of the risk-benefit analysis."
I can`t believe I`m still picking up 1.19 on BF 210-239 Trump ECVs. There are some fools about. Unless he wins Arizona or Georgia - then the fool will be me.
You can get similar on the 48.5 handicap market, and there Arizona wouldn't lose you the bet.
I`ve been banging away at that too. But its at 1.1 now, at best. I`m now picking up bits of 210-239 Trump ECVs at 1.19.
So today's announcement seems to vindicate the "hunker down and wait for a vaccine" approach to the virus as opposed to the main mooted alternative of "we need to find a way to live with it long term".
But of course not our deeply sub-optimal execution of that approach.
Well start to finish i.e. by the time the wider population has got vaccinated is probably going to be 18 months. Swedish egghead said we all needed a plan for 2 years.
I doubt it will take that long. If the AZ vaccine proves as effective then it will be done in 5-8 months. It's literally the silver bullet to having a working economy again, expect absolutely gigantic sums to be spent on vaccination programmes across the world.
Well there is probably another month at least before more data and approval. Some roll out in December, then lets be optimistic, 6 months of full blast, that's August 2021, that's 18 months.
I think there will be two phases. The first will be a race to get enough people vaccinated that the R number will fall below 1 even without restrictions on the general population (though obviously contact tracing and isolation of people who are infected will need to continue). The second will be a longer-term mopping-up operation.
Given that perhaps as many as 20% in the UK may already have been infected, I am hopeful the first phase may be quicker than people expect, if the supply of vaccine is adequate. Though the snag is that the most vulnerable people, who will have the highest priority for vaccination, are probably the least prone to spread infection, on average.
I'm an "extremely vulnerable" person who is currently in no position to spread anything to any one as I'm working from home again and only going outside for exercise. On the other hand vaccinating me would get me back in front of my classes and save a fair bit in cover teacher costs.
I just mean that because - quite rightly - we'll be vaccinating the most vulnerable first, the R number won't drop as fast as it would have done if we'd vaccinated low-risk super-spreaders first.
On the other hand, I think there's a lot in the argument that the percentage necessary for herd immunity will be a lot lower than the conventional figure of 60-70%, because the estimates of R that figure is based on reflect the people most likely to get and spread the virus, not the population as a whole.
I think I would start with NHS staff, carers, and shop staff and/or transport workers: those most likely to catch it and then spread it if they have it.
Edit: oh, and teachers!
Sod the teachers. It's the children who spread it, symptomlessly. Typhoid Mary is sitting in the second row of class 2B.
I can`t believe I`m still picking up 1.19 on BF 210-239 Trump ECVs. There are some fools about. Unless he wins Arizona or Georgia - then the fool will be me.
You can get similar on the 48.5 handicap market, and there Arizona wouldn't lose you the bet.
I`ve been banging away at that too. But its at 1.1 now, at best. I`m now picking up bits of 210-239 Trump ECVs at 1.19.
Fair, though I found that if you left money to be laid at 1.25 or so it was getting matched even at large volumes. Would recommend giving it a try.
Several of them at least. I'm increasingly convinced someone promiseds him dozes of lawsuits, knowing that numbers is all he cares about, and so they'll file anything so they can say there were xx challanges to the election.
It has the added benefit for the conspiracy minded, who already go 'How could Trump get so few of the postal votes, just because he told people to vote in person? It must be rigged ' by having them go 'How could all of those dozens of cases be thrown out? It must be rigged'.
I’ve been crunching numbers on Alaska: if Biden got 64% to Trump’s 36% of the remaining vote to be counted he squeaks the state (assuming roughly 4% continue to go to other)
As Biden has been doing better in postal votes is this worth a punt? (I’m sorry if this has been discussed already and discounted)
As if his Junk Mail won't be already be ovrflowing with begging letters from Boris. Someone said it wasn't completely barking. What metric are they working to?
I’ve been crunching numbers on Alaska: if Biden got 64% to Trump’s 36% of the remaining vote to be counted he squeaks the state (assuming roughly 4% continue to go to other)
As Biden has been doing better in postal votes is this worth a punt? (I’m sorry if this has been discussed already and discounted)
Alaska is solidly R and they are used to using postal votes due to the size of the state, so I would be amazed if it split the same way it does in other parts of the US. But, DYOR.
I’ve been crunching numbers on Alaska: if Biden got 64% to Trump’s 36% of the remaining vote to be counted he squeaks the state (assuming roughly 4% continue to go to other)
As Biden has been doing better in postal votes is this worth a punt? (I’m sorry if this has been discussed already and discounted)
I`ve just checked the prices on BF. Obviously don`t back Dems in Alaska at 6.4. If you are going to have a go lay the Reps at 1.04. I think that`s well worth a punt, though remember in Alaska because of distances mail voting is normal and unlikely to skew heavily Biden.
Seems astonishingly strange if true. Even with vexatious and abusive correspondence councils know not to respond like that, but in a way that says the same thing but more professionally.
It's not ideal for any American president to get on the wrong side of John Redwood, this is true, but Joe is tough old boot. I remember during the campaign he felt the sharp end of Iain Duncan Smith's tongue and he managed to ride that storm.
Looking at Redwood and Duncan Smith, it's interesting that two men ostensibly at opposite ends of the intelligence spectrum have ended up espousing such similar views. You might have thought it would have given Redwood at least some pause for thought.
Yes, Redwood is a total brainbox by all accounts. I was a bit surprised when I heard that and felt the need to check up on it, but yep - he is.
Redwood has a History BA and phd from Oxford and is a fellow of All Souls, headed Thatcher's policy unit and set up an investment business and was executive chairman of an industrial PLC, he had a formidable CV even before entering politics but while IDS may not have as stellar a CV both of them have been close since they were EU rebels during Major's premiership
If someone can explain QAnon to me (to the extent it is explainable) please do feel free. I don’t understand a thing of it aside from Trump being our saviour from paedophiles, or something.
It's not ideal for any American president to get on the wrong side of John Redwood, this is true, but Joe is tough old boot. I remember during the campaign he felt the sharp end of Iain Duncan Smith's tongue and he managed to ride that storm.
Looking at Redwood and Duncan Smith, it's interesting that two men ostensibly at opposite ends of the intelligence spectrum have ended up espousing such similar views. You might have thought it would have given Redwood at least some pause for thought.
Redwood has a History BA and phd from Oxford and is a fellow of All Souls, headed Thatcher's policy unit and set up an investment business and was executive chairman of an industrial PLC, he had a formidable CV even before entering politics but while IDS may not have as stellar a CV both of them have been close since they were Maastricht rebels during Major's premiership
Are you sure about the PhD? Oxford awards DPhils...
Seems astonishingly strange if true. Even with vexatious and abusive correspondence councils know not to respond like that, but in a way that says the same thing but more professionally.
It's just a screengrab of text. No evidence it's actually real.
Trump isn`t going to win Georgia. No way. Arizona still worries me just a tad though. A lot of votes still out there.
There aren't as many votes as you'd think. Most of the remaining are "provisional". That is, people who were worried their postal wouldn't arrive on time (or who lacked proper documentation at the polling station). Getting through these will be non-trivial, but it's reasonable to assume that a fairly large portion of the "worried about postal vote" peoples' votes will have already been counted.
Can't think why they swung away from Donald 'War Dead Are Losers' Trump.
Trump just couldn't resist othering any group not offering total fealty, could he? Eventually he assembled a goodly coalition. He just wasn't great at politics.
The next neofascist will be far better at it. America has been warned.
It's not ideal for any American president to get on the wrong side of John Redwood, this is true, but Joe is tough old boot. I remember during the campaign he felt the sharp end of Iain Duncan Smith's tongue and he managed to ride that storm.
Looking at Redwood and Duncan Smith, it's interesting that two men ostensibly at opposite ends of the intelligence spectrum have ended up espousing such similar views. You might have thought it would have given Redwood at least some pause for thought.
Redwood has a History BA and phd from Oxford and is a fellow of All Souls, headed Thatcher's policy unit and set up an investment business and was executive chairman of an industrial PLC, he had a formidable CV even before entering politics but while IDS may not have as stellar a CV both of them have been close since they were Maastricht rebels during Major's premiership
Are you sure about the PhD? Oxford awards DPhils...
They also award Masters without any study but yes if you want to be technical he has a DPhil which 'investigated the fear of atheism in England, from the Restoration to the publication of Alciphron' https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Redwood
I’ve been crunching numbers on Alaska: if Biden got 64% to Trump’s 36% of the remaining vote to be counted he squeaks the state (assuming roughly 4% continue to go to other)
As Biden has been doing better in postal votes is this worth a punt? (I’m sorry if this has been discussed already and discounted)
It feels a stretch.
The EVs Biden has picked up (or strongly presumed to pick up but not yet called) compared with Clinton in 2016 are:
I’ve been crunching numbers on Alaska: if Biden got 64% to Trump’s 36% of the remaining vote to be counted he squeaks the state (assuming roughly 4% continue to go to other)
As Biden has been doing better in postal votes is this worth a punt? (I’m sorry if this has been discussed already and discounted)
In 2016 the early in person vote split 51/49 for Clinton and the mail vote split 60/40 for Trump
In 2020 the early in person vote has split.... 51/49 for Biden. The mail vote has doubled but it would require every single 'extra' vote to go Biden for the mail vote to save him.
I suspect (but have not crunched the numbers) that the mail vote will split about 50/50, maybe 55/45 Biden.
It's not ideal for any American president to get on the wrong side of John Redwood, this is true, but Joe is tough old boot. I remember during the campaign he felt the sharp end of Iain Duncan Smith's tongue and he managed to ride that storm.
Looking at Redwood and Duncan Smith, it's interesting that two men ostensibly at opposite ends of the intelligence spectrum have ended up espousing such similar views. You might have thought it would have given Redwood at least some pause for thought.
Redwood has a History BA and phd from Oxford and is a fellow of All Souls, headed Thatcher's policy unit and set up an investment business and was executive chairman of an industrial PLC, he had a formidable CV even before entering politics but while IDS may not have as stellar a CV both of them have been close since they were Maastricht rebels during Major's premiership
Are you sure about the PhD? Oxford awards DPhils...
They also award Masters without any study but yes if you want to be technical he has a DPhil which 'investigated the fear of atheism in England, from the Restoration to the publication of Alciphron' https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Redwood
What do you mean no study? I was enrolled in the University of Life for those four years!
So today's announcement seems to vindicate the "hunker down and wait for a vaccine" approach to the virus as opposed to the main mooted alternative of "we need to find a way to live with it long term".
But of course not our deeply sub-optimal execution of that approach.
Well start to finish i.e. by the time the wider population has got vaccinated is probably going to be 18 months. Swedish egghead said we all needed a plan for 2 years.
I doubt it will take that long. If the AZ vaccine proves as effective then it will be done in 5-8 months. It's literally the silver bullet to having a working economy again, expect absolutely gigantic sums to be spent on vaccination programmes across the world.
Well there is probably another month at least before more data and approval. Some roll out in December, then lets be optimistic, 6 months of full blast, that's August 2021, that's 18 months.
August 2021 is ten months away, not 18.
No, i was talking about swedish egghead in Feb on this year said the strategy should be for 2 years, the idea of this done and dusted by September 2020 is nonsense. He was a bit on the pessimistic side. Its will be more like 18 months end to end.
I’ve been crunching numbers on Alaska: if Biden got 64% to Trump’s 36% of the remaining vote to be counted he squeaks the state (assuming roughly 4% continue to go to other)
As Biden has been doing better in postal votes is this worth a punt? (I’m sorry if this has been discussed already and discounted)
I assume (but don't know) that that % is as a proportion of the total Alaska mail in ballots outstanding, whereas the number returned will be less in practice. So Biden's target % is going to be significantly higher than 64%. They will know the total only when the deadline is reached. I wouldn't touch a bet against Biden with a bargepole at the best odds of 6/1 on offer, although I would DYOR to confirm my assumption.
The 7/1 on Trump in Arizona looks better value, although I think that the Democrats should be favorites to win based on the way Trump seems to be falling slightly short on the batches added recently. Arizona, in contrast to Alaska, doesn't yet seem a done deal. But I wouldn't put money on Trump out of principle - some things are beyond the Pale.
If someone can explain QAnon to me (to the extent it is explainable) please do feel free. I don’t understand a thing of it aside from Trump being our saviour from paedophiles, or something.
It's like the Schleswig-Holstein Question, but a lot, lot worse. You really don't want to know.
Only 3 people understand it. One of them is dead, one has forget all about it and the last one has gone mad.
If you attempt to understand it, you will be pulled into a world where The Colours Are Wrong. And so is the Geometry.
I'm struggling to see the fuss with the Redwood letter, and it's politely worded. Yes, he blames the EU - as you'd expect - but it's not unpleasant or totally barking.
The only thing I raised an eyebrow at is the EURef winning margin being a hostage to fortune - it's *possible* Biden bests that, so I wouldn't have included it.
There's no problem with it. The letter is hilarious.
If someone can explain QAnon to me (to the extent it is explainable) please do feel free. I don’t understand a thing of it aside from Trump being our saviour from paedophiles, or something.
It's like the Schleswig-Holstein Question, but a lot, lot worse. You really don't want to know.
Only 3 people understand it. One of them is dead, one has forget all about it and the last one has gone mad.
If you attempt to understand it, you will be pulled into a world where The Colours Are Wrong. And so is the Geometry.
I’ve been crunching numbers on Alaska: if Biden got 64% to Trump’s 36% of the remaining vote to be counted he squeaks the state (assuming roughly 4% continue to go to other)
As Biden has been doing better in postal votes is this worth a punt? (I’m sorry if this has been discussed already and discounted)
I assume (but don't know) that that % is as a proportion of the total Alaska mail in ballots outstanding, whereas the number returned will be less in practice. So Biden's target % is going to be significantly higher than 64%. They will know the total only when the deadline is reached. I wouldn't touch a bet against Biden with a bargepole at the best odds of 6/1 on offer, although I would DYOR to confirm my assumption.
.
It's mail ballots received (not outstanding) plus provisionals.
So two hard numbers, bit of course not all those provisionals will be valid.
I’ve been crunching numbers on Alaska: if Biden got 64% to Trump’s 36% of the remaining vote to be counted he squeaks the state (assuming roughly 4% continue to go to other)
As Biden has been doing better in postal votes is this worth a punt? (I’m sorry if this has been discussed already and discounted)
I assume (but don't know) that that % is as a proportion of the total Alaska mail in ballots outstanding, whereas the number returned will be less in practice. So Biden's target % is going to be significantly higher than 64%. They will know the total only when the deadline is reached. I wouldn't touch a bet against Biden with a bargepole at the best odds of 6/1 on offer, although I would DYOR to confirm my assumption.
The 7/1 on Trump in Arizona looks better value, although I think that the Democrats should be favorites to win based on the way Trump seems to be falling slightly short on the batches added recently. Arizona, in contrast to Alaska, doesn't yet seem a done deal. But I wouldn't put money on Trump out of principle - some things are beyond the Pale.
I don't think either is good value.
Alaska would involve Biden overcoming a margin of nearly 15% in 2016, which he's not come close to elsewhere.
In Arizona, Trump is running out of batches of uncounted votes, and we've had enough to say he's consistently short of what he requires (not by miles but the consistency is doing for him and it's probably slipped away).
The value at the moment is taking small amounts off people who are delusional and think there's a twist in the tale that just isn't coming.
don't understand why these arent settled. would need over a million votes chalking off to make them losers.
This is a near certain 2% returning 3 months (AER 8% assuming it’s settled in Jan), better than in a bank. You could also hedge by covering 70-75 million (75 is available but I think asking to be matched at 100 would get you covered) to make it A risk free 1% (AER 4%)
Comments
As long as it doesn't all end up with an unsuccessful invasion by the French and someone have his eyes gouged out...
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-only-half-of-britons-say-they-would-get-a-vaccine-poll-reveals-12045605
That's from August. It may be there will be more appetite for it now that it looks like being much more effective than expected, but who knows? Bear in mind that Kate bloody Bingham was saying in the FT a few weeks back that the under 50s might be better off not getting it because of possible side effects.
There is still scope for an epic cockup.
Given that perhaps as many as 20% in the UK may already have been infected, I am hopeful the first phase may be quicker than people expect, if the supply of vaccine is adequate. Though the snag is that the most vulnerable people, who will have the highest priority for vaccination, are probably the least prone to spread infection, on average.
Eventually he assembled a goodly coalition. He just wasn't great at politics.
I'm feeling very positive in general today but some of it is probably Trump Toast bleeding into other matters. For example, it's just started raining here and I'm going to pop out and enjoy the feeling of it trickling down my neck. I wouldn't normally do that.
https://twitter.com/_MAArgentino/status/1325144053479075840?s=19
No thanks. Loosen for Christmas and the NY and then allow normal life with local lockdowns, as required, through to March/April by which time hopefully other things can be lifted.
We can then deal with the FUBAR fall-out and come up with a long-term economic plan.
The only thing I raised an eyebrow at is the EURef winning margin being a hostage to fortune - it's *possible* Biden bests that, so I wouldn't have included it.
On the other hand vaccinating me would get me back in front of my classes and save a fair bit in cover teacher costs.
Whether Biden gets to 52% I'm not sure, but thanks to 3rd party votes I imagine he'll have a wider margin over Trump.
Enough said.
https://twitter.com/breaking_et/status/1325846375951704065
https://www.ft.com/content/d2e00128-7889-4d5d-84a3-43e51355a751
Mainstream anti-vaxxer doctrine.
He also has set out to eliminate point scoring and that is also refreshing
On the other hand, I think there's a lot in the argument that the percentage necessary for herd immunity will be a lot lower than the conventional figure of 60-70%, because the estimates of R that figure is based on reflect the people most likely to get and spread the virus, not the population as a whole.
Let's hope it isn't the Charge of the Light Brigade.
Edit: oh, and teachers!
At Waterloo the French cavalry were pretty instrumental in winning the battle for the Allies by blocking the French artillery from firing at the British squares long enough for the Prussians to arrive.
To be fair, we've also been told that when Boris Johnson offered her the job she expressed doubt as to her qualifications for it.
It has the added benefit for the conspiracy minded, who already go 'How could Trump get so few of the postal votes, just because he told people to vote in person? It must be rigged ' by having them go 'How could all of those dozens of cases be thrown out? It must be rigged'.
They say "we submitted queries on your behalf" but I strongly suspect that is not the full story.
It's rather unprofessionally phrased from Mr Reddy, but one wonders whether what he responded to was better, or whether it was ten times worse.
As Biden has been doing better in postal votes is this worth a punt? (I’m sorry if this has been discussed already and discounted)
Redwood has a History BA and phd from Oxford and is a fellow of All Souls, headed Thatcher's policy unit and set up an investment business and was executive chairman of an industrial PLC, he had a formidable CV even before entering politics but while IDS may not have as stellar a CV both of them have been close since they were EU rebels during Major's premiership
The EVs Biden has picked up (or strongly presumed to pick up but not yet called) compared with Clinton in 2016 are:
1. Michigan (Trump margin in 2016 = 0.23%)
2. Pennsylvania (0.72%)
3. Wisconsin (0.77%)
4. Nebraska 2nd (2.24%)
5. Arizona (3.55%)
6. Georgia (5.13%)
Alaska had a 14.73% margin in 2016, and Biden missed a string of places which required less of a swing (Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, Ohio, Texas).
Stranger things have happened, and Alaska is a strange place. But I'd not wager a lot on it, frankly.
In 2020 the early in person vote has split.... 51/49 for Biden. The mail vote has doubled but it would require every single 'extra' vote to go Biden for the mail vote to save him.
I suspect (but have not crunched the numbers) that the mail vote will split about 50/50, maybe 55/45 Biden.
So not enough.
The 7/1 on Trump in Arizona looks better value, although I think that the Democrats should be favorites to win based on the way Trump seems to be falling slightly short on the batches added recently. Arizona, in contrast to Alaska, doesn't yet seem a done deal. But I wouldn't put money on Trump out of principle - some things are beyond the Pale.
Only 3 people understand it. One of them is dead, one has forget all about it and the last one has gone mad.
If you attempt to understand it, you will be pulled into a world where The Colours Are Wrong. And so is the Geometry.
Needs 78% of remaining ballots, getting 38%.
Penn drifting further away too.
So two hard numbers, bit of course not all those provisionals will be valid.
Alaska would involve Biden overcoming a margin of nearly 15% in 2016, which he's not come close to elsewhere.
In Arizona, Trump is running out of batches of uncounted votes, and we've had enough to say he's consistently short of what he requires (not by miles but the consistency is doing for him and it's probably slipped away).
The value at the moment is taking small amounts off people who are delusional and think there's a twist in the tale that just isn't coming.
Some amusing replies.