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It shouldn’t be long before WH2020 bets are settled – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,156
edited November 2020 in General
imageIt shouldn’t be long before WH2020 bets are settled – politicalbetting.com

Given the scale of betting activity on the American election quite a few punters have been in contact asking when bets are going to be settled.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,065
    First
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,020
    Could be worse.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    For anyone who thinks Pfizer sat on the results: Didn't quite happen like that. They initially planned a 32 person interim review (ie when 32 people across the whole trial had covid) for the end of October which would have told them if the vaccine was effective, but regulators criticized that as being a bit premature. They agreed with the FDA to do a 64 person interim review and by the time the independent review team had done the unblinding they had 94 cases to work with. Still a fair bit of research to do to close the confidence intervals on the final effectiveness but it looks pretty damned solid.

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/09/covid-19-vaccine-from-pfizer-and-biontech-is-strongly-effective-early-data-from-large-trial-indicate/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,020
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1325790750181822464

    Trump is going to lose his pooh over this.
    He's taken it and that's a side effect?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    New bunch of illegal votes in from Philadelphia. 91% for Biden. Biden's lead up to 45,670.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,020
    Anabobazina said:

    The idea that Pfizer would put out a release like this, first thing on a Monday morning, just as the markets open in the United States, without absolute certainty that they are right is for the birds.

    People can have absolute certainty and still be wrong, but on an issue like this, the biggest ongoing news story in the world for the last 10 months, they would have to be both spectacularly dumb and spectacularly unlucky to be wrong.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    I've got a bet on Trump winning Alaska and by the time it settles the AER% on my profit will be worse than a bank account. Do they have some principled objection to vote counting?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,020
    Quincel said:

    I've got a bet on Trump winning Alaska and by the time it settles the AER% on my profit will be worse than a bank account. Do they have some principled objection to vote counting?

    The NYTimes site says the only votes counted on the night were election day votes and in person early voting, and that they would not even begin counting the rest until at least a week after election day. It actually makes a bit more sense than drip feeds of very small dumps of votes per day over a week, though as it was unlikely to affect the overall result they had that luxuery I guess.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,856
    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1325775871395958784?s=20

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1325776258786062336?s=20
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MrEd said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1325578272302903296

    Good news for Biden out of Arizona.

    Arizona + Nevada gets Biden to 270 outwith Pennsylvania and Georgia. Given republicans did well downballot in Az (Ex McSally) the legislature there is less likely to indulge any shenanigans in my opinion.

    Great call by Fox/AP – I hope those who attacked them for the call will now recant.
    Not sure why they necessarily should, it's a 20K margin so not exactly a crushing victory. They made it very early on and it's clear they wildly over-estimated Biden's margins.

    Still kicking yourself for failing to bet against Ralston?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2020
    Quincel said:

    I've got a bet on Trump winning Alaska and by the time it settles the AER% on my profit will be worse than a bank account. Do they have some principled objection to vote counting?

    I dearly hope you lose that bet!

    Not out of animosity but out of avarice.

    They start counting postals tomorrow. In reality you are very safe but probably not as safe as you thought when you put the bet on.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,947
    https://twitter.com/FranceNews24/status/1325717830088744963?s=20

    https://twitter.com/FranceNews24/status/1325719368454594562?s=20
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,947
    John Bell: Life will Return to Normal by Spring

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-iJU_7U0Fo&
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Alistair said:

    Quincel said:

    I've got a bet on Trump winning Alaska and by the time it settles the AER% on my profit will be worse than a bank account. Do they have some principled objection to vote counting?

    I dearly hope you lose that bet!

    Not out of animosity but out of avarice.

    They start counting postals tomorrow. In reality you are very safe but probably not as safe as you thought when you put the bet on.
    Fair, fair. I got 1/9, which I'd pretty much take today or certainly fairly close (I'd take 1/6, for sure). Gross says he thinks he'll win the Senate race, but given the results in other states I'd be stunned if it swung.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,856
    https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1325784594591997952?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,856
    https://twitter.com/Tobias_Ellwood/status/1325767479885443073?s=20
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,947
    edited November 2020
    HYUFD said:

    twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1325784594591997952?s=20

    I presume like phone hacking*, his very close friendship and boosting of Trump won't stand against Piers now he has become the self appointed "voice of the nation" in attacking the government.

    * which he knew nothing about the world leading levels that went on when he was editor.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Quincel said:

    Alistair said:

    Quincel said:

    I've got a bet on Trump winning Alaska and by the time it settles the AER% on my profit will be worse than a bank account. Do they have some principled objection to vote counting?

    I dearly hope you lose that bet!

    Not out of animosity but out of avarice.

    They start counting postals tomorrow. In reality you are very safe but probably not as safe as you thought when you put the bet on.
    Fair, fair. I got 1/9, which I'd pretty much take today or certainly fairly close (I'd take 1/6, for sure). Gross says he thinks he'll win the Senate race, but given the results in other states I'd be stunned if it swung.
    MY rough rough estimate is the mail ballots will split 50/50 rather than the historical 60/40 for the GOP. So no where even close to being a danger.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,990
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/Tobias_Ellwood/status/1325767479885443073?s=20

    He is absolutely correct and Boris needs to drop it or negotiate it away 'tout de suite'
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,947
    edited November 2020
    Boris Johnson is due to hold a press conference at 5pm

    ‘In total, we’ve procured 40million doses of the Pfizer candidate vaccine, with 10million of those doses being manufactured and available to the UK by the end of the year if the vaccine is approved by the regulators,’
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,079
    edited November 2020
    OnboardG1 said:

    For anyone who thinks Pfizer sat on the results: Didn't quite happen like that. They initially planned a 32 person interim review (ie when 32 people across the whole trial had covid) for the end of October which would have told them if the vaccine was effective, but regulators criticized that as being a bit premature. They agreed with the FDA to do a 64 person interim review and by the time the independent review team had done the unblinding they had 94 cases to work with. Still a fair bit of research to do to close the confidence intervals on the final effectiveness but it looks pretty damned solid.

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/09/covid-19-vaccine-from-pfizer-and-biontech-is-strongly-effective-early-data-from-large-trial-indicate/

    Trump is going to be p1ssed.

    But this is great news because:

    (1) It indicates other messenger RNA vaccines (like AZN/Oxford) are likely to work
    (2) The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is (by the standard of these things) relatively easy to manufacture
    (3) 90% effective is fantastic. What will be doubly interesting to understand if those few people that got CV19 got mild cases. (Albeit the number of people infected is so small, there won't be statistically significant information on this.)

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,947
    The man is a moron...

    Mark Drakeford said it was good news but warned: "I think you'd always want to read carefully what a particular competitor in this field says on their own behalf."

    He added he was "not going to be tempted to suggest that this somehow means there is a magic bullet on the horizon".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,856
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/Tobias_Ellwood/status/1325767479885443073?s=20

    He is absolutely correct and Boris needs to drop it or negotiate it away 'tout de suite'
    Agree BigG and Boris should also compromise with the EU on state aid so we get a trade deal and the issue of a border in the Irish Sea becomes much less significant too
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,970
    rcs1000 said:

    Trump is going to be p1ssed.

    No, this is perfect

    He was on track to be elected again when the deep state and China launched the virus to lose him the vote, and now that's done they release the antidote.

    Textbook...

    https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1325800569706049542

    Of course not. If it was part of WARP speed it could have been release weeks ago.

    WAKE UP SHEEPLE!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,079
    I'm slightly suspicious of https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

    Apparently 13 new ballots were dropped in North Carolina, and they split 50/50 between Biden and Trump...
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited November 2020
    Amazing to think that if this had been announced this time last week, Trump might have won.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    rcs1000 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    For anyone who thinks Pfizer sat on the results: Didn't quite happen like that. They initially planned a 32 person interim review (ie when 32 people across the whole trial had covid) for the end of October which would have told them if the vaccine was effective, but regulators criticized that as being a bit premature. They agreed with the FDA to do a 64 person interim review and by the time the independent review team had done the unblinding they had 94 cases to work with. Still a fair bit of research to do to close the confidence intervals on the final effectiveness but it looks pretty damned solid.

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/09/covid-19-vaccine-from-pfizer-and-biontech-is-strongly-effective-early-data-from-large-trial-indicate/

    Trump is going to be p1ssed.

    But this is great news because:

    (1) It indicates other messenger RNA vaccines (like AZN/Oxford) are likely to work
    (2) The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is (by the standard of these things) relatively easy to manufacture
    (3) 90% effective is fantastic. What will be doubly interesting to understand if those few people that got CV19 got mild cases. (Albeit the number of people infected is so small, there won't be statistically significant information on this.)

    They've added an outcome to their trial now to assess the reduction in severe cases after their trial concludes (at 160 odd cases IIRC).

    And yes this does bode well for AZN/Oxford and Moderna as well. Having multiple 80-90% effective vaccines would make life a lot easier for various governments.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm slightly suspicious of https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

    Apparently 13 new ballots were dropped in North Carolina, and they split 50/50 between Biden and Trump...

    Robert I've emailed you with a thread
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm slightly suspicious of https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

    Apparently 13 new ballots were dropped in North Carolina, and they split 50/50 between Biden and Trump...

    How had I not seen that website before? Good to see North Carolina actually is doing some results.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,079
    Scott_xP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Trump is going to be p1ssed.

    No, this is perfect

    He was on track to be elected again when the deep state and China launched the virus to lose him the vote, and now that's done they release the antidote.

    Textbook...

    https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1325800569706049542

    Of course not. If it was part of WARP speed it could have been release weeks ago.

    WAKE UP SHEEPLE!
    I've said it before, but it bears repeating, Pfizer has been head and shoulders above any of the other vaccine makers in this process. Both Moderna and AZN/Oxford started off a couple of months ahead, but Pfizer has done an absolutely incredibly job of getting trials done, and getting manufacturing up to speed.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,079
    Mysticrose said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm slightly suspicious of https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

    Apparently 13 new ballots were dropped in North Carolina, and they split 50/50 between Biden and Trump...

    Robert I've emailed you with a thread
    Mysticrose said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm slightly suspicious of https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

    Apparently 13 new ballots were dropped in North Carolina, and they split 50/50 between Biden and Trump...

    Robert I've emailed you with a thread
    Let me pass it onto the powers that be.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,079
    Mysticrose said:

    Amazing to think that if this had been announced this time last week, Trump might have won.

    Given how many Democrats voted early by mail, it probably wouldn't have been enough. But two or three weeks ago, yes.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    Scott_xP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Trump is going to be p1ssed.

    No, this is perfect

    He was on track to be elected again when the deep state and China launched the virus to lose him the vote, and now that's done they release the antidote.

    Textbook...

    https://twitter.com/TheStalwart/status/1325800569706049542

    Of course not. If it was part of WARP speed it could have been release weeks ago.

    WAKE UP SHEEPLE!
    Hilariously, if they'd backed all the vaccine candidates then he might have had this as his October surprise.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,020
    Anabobazina said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    https://twitter.com/prospect_clark/status/1325776785905242112?s=20

    SPOILER ALERT

    Is the solution similar to that of Murder on the Orient Express?
    Bingo.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm slightly suspicious of https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

    Apparently 13 new ballots were dropped in North Carolina, and they split 50/50 between Biden and Trump...

    Have you seen my NC ballot sleuthing? I reckon there is a max of 60,000 actual delivered ballots ready to be counted. Not enough to overturn the Senate or Presidential numbers.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Alistair said:

    MrEd said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1325578272302903296

    Good news for Biden out of Arizona.

    Arizona + Nevada gets Biden to 270 outwith Pennsylvania and Georgia. Given republicans did well downballot in Az (Ex McSally) the legislature there is less likely to indulge any shenanigans in my opinion.

    Great call by Fox/AP – I hope those who attacked them for the call will now recant.
    Not sure why they necessarily should, it's a 20K margin so not exactly a crushing victory. They made it very early on and it's clear they wildly over-estimated Biden's margins.

    Still kicking yourself for failing to bet against Ralston?
    Haha, no glad I listened to him and a fair few others on this site by making bets suggested. It pays to listen to others :)
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Alistair said:

    MrEd said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1325578272302903296

    Good news for Biden out of Arizona.

    Arizona + Nevada gets Biden to 270 outwith Pennsylvania and Georgia. Given republicans did well downballot in Az (Ex McSally) the legislature there is less likely to indulge any shenanigans in my opinion.

    Great call by Fox/AP – I hope those who attacked them for the call will now recant.
    Not sure why they necessarily should, it's a 20K margin so not exactly a crushing victory. They made it very early on and it's clear they wildly over-estimated Biden's margins.

    Still kicking yourself for failing to bet against Ralston?
    is that 20k figure old or brand new? two sources i look at have it a shade under 17k.

    https://www.google.com/search?q=arizona+voting+results&rlz=1C1GCEB_enGB892GB892&oq=arizona+votin&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0i3l2j0i131i433j0l2j0i3j0.5452j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html#

    Dems are still 1.08 to win AZ on the exchange though.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm slightly suspicious of https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

    Apparently 13 new ballots were dropped in North Carolina, and they split 50/50 between Biden and Trump...

    I think they're taking the raw feed of current numbers from the NYT and trying to delta against previous iterations to see the trends. That's going to produce some oddities from time to time as the raw numbers will inevitably contain errors and corrections.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    How the world works :neutral:

    https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1325772537834442753?s=20

  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    AP - Georgia - Biden +10,353
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,079
    paulyork64 said:

    Alistair said:

    MrEd said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1325578272302903296

    Good news for Biden out of Arizona.

    Arizona + Nevada gets Biden to 270 outwith Pennsylvania and Georgia. Given republicans did well downballot in Az (Ex McSally) the legislature there is less likely to indulge any shenanigans in my opinion.

    Great call by Fox/AP – I hope those who attacked them for the call will now recant.
    Not sure why they necessarily should, it's a 20K margin so not exactly a crushing victory. They made it very early on and it's clear they wildly over-estimated Biden's margins.

    Still kicking yourself for failing to bet against Ralston?
    is that 20k figure old or brand new? two sources i look at have it a shade under 17k.

    https://www.google.com/search?q=arizona+voting+results&rlz=1C1GCEB_enGB892GB892&oq=arizona+votin&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j0i3l2j0i131i433j0l2j0i3j0.5452j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

    https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html#

    Dems are still 1.08 to win AZ on the exchange though.
    That's an old Tweet, Biden's lead in AZ is about 17k now. (Albeit the remaining ballots are mostly provisionals, so the real number left to count (a) isn't as high as it looks, as many provisionals mail ins will have already been counted, and (b) provisionals are less likely to be from snowbirds.)

    Fox should not have called AZ when they did. It was definitely nowhere near the 99.5% confidence interval for calling a state.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,320
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    New bunch of illegal votes in from Philadelphia. 91% for Biden. Biden's lead up to 45,670.

    Lies, straight from the pit of hell.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,143
    edited November 2020
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1325784594591997952?s=20

    They fell out a while ago, didn't they?

    Trump really needs those who have stuck with him because they believe he has the right policy solutions (and perhaps because they like the man) to show genuine concern at this stage over his mental health and legacy, and his impact on trust in US democracy.

    Unfortunately, his pattern over the past four years has been to dump all those people for cynical "yes" men who are in it purely for their own careers (including access to the right wing news circuit, endorsement and money). If he had real friends or people wanting to give wise counsel, they have probably all long gone (or possibly Ivanka is the last woman standing - nobody else in the inner circle, older sons included, gives two sh1ts about the bloke).

    It's all terribly sad in a way (although his own fault). He's the mega-lottery winner or football star who dumped his genuine friends in favour of fake ones, who will simply leach off him until he is a dry husk, then f*** off.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1325776258786062336?s=20

    Isn't the relatively low effectiveness of seasonal flu vaccines due to the manufacturers having to make a call on which strains they think will be prevalent each season? It'd be interesting to know the effectiveness of seasonal flu vaccines against the strains they target.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    For those of us following the Casino Royale 52% Biden vote share tip, some encouraging news:

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325801372051181568?s=20

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,079
    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm slightly suspicious of https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

    Apparently 13 new ballots were dropped in North Carolina, and they split 50/50 between Biden and Trump...

    Have you seen my NC ballot sleuthing? I reckon there is a max of 60,000 actual delivered ballots ready to be counted. Not enough to overturn the Senate or Presidential numbers.
    I have not, but the question I have is (and which you may know the answer to): is the total number outstanding simply the number of mail in ballots yet to be recieved? If so, they won't all come in (50% is probably generous).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,947
    More news on mutant minky covid...

    BBC News - 'Mutant coronavirus' seen before on mink farms, say scientists
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-54867653
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Quincel said:

    I've got a bet on Trump winning Alaska and by the time it settles the AER% on my profit will be worse than a bank account. Do they have some principled objection to vote counting?

    Maybe they're waiting for daybreak? So sometime next April.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Mysticrose said:

    For those of us following the Casino Royale 52% Biden vote share tip, some encouraging news:

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325801372051181568?s=20

    Yes, I'm on that and while I'm thinking my 2/1 hasn't played out as value a lot of California votes would be very helpful. Even then though, assuming they split 2:1 Biden I don't think 3.6m votes is enough, we need some other states to come through (and there are places like NY/NJ with late votes coming in) too.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    edited November 2020
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1325784594591997952?s=20

    They fell out a while ago, didn't they?

    Trump really needs those who have stuck with him because they believe he has the right policy solutions (and perhaps because they like the man) to show genuine concern at this stage over his mental health and legacy, and his impact on trust in US democracy.

    Unfortunately, his pattern over the past four years has been to dump all those people for cynical "yes" men who are in it purely for their own careers (including access to the right wing news circuit, endorsement and money). If he had real friends or people wanting to give wise counsel, they have probably all long gone (or possibly Ivanka is the last woman standing - nobody else in the inner circle, older sons included, gives two sh1ts about the bloke).

    It's all terribly sad in a way (although his own fault). He's the mega-lottery winner or football star who dumped his genuine friends in favour of fake ones, who will simply leach off him until he is a dry husk, then f*** off.
    His male spawn (with the exception of Barron who, fortunately, isn't old enough quite yet to have become like his brothers) are the ultimate failsons. They are utterly useless leeches who are an embarrasment and a waste of the hideously expensive education lavished on them. In a just world they'd be middle managers at Wal-Mart.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Mysticrose said:

    For those of us following the Casino Royale 52% Biden vote share tip, some encouraging news:

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325801372051181568?s=20

    you can get 70k at 1.02 for Biden to win the popular vote. I don't think even a fully compliant SC is going win Trump that one.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,714
    rpjs said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1325776258786062336?s=20

    Isn't the relatively low effectiveness of seasonal flu vaccines due to the manufacturers having to make a call on which strains they think will be prevalent each season? It'd be interesting to know the effectiveness of seasonal flu vaccines against the strains they target.
    Up around 80% or more for the targeted strains, I think, though obviously will vary among vaccine/strain combinations (remember reading a paper a while back, may be able to find it again...)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,079
    Quincel said:

    Mysticrose said:

    For those of us following the Casino Royale 52% Biden vote share tip, some encouraging news:

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325801372051181568?s=20

    Yes, I'm on that and while I'm thinking my 2/1 hasn't played out as value a lot of California votes would be very helpful. Even then though, assuming they split 2:1 Biden I don't think 3.6m votes is enough, we need some other states to come through (and there are places like NY/NJ with late votes coming in) too.
    On my estimates, Biden falls just short, but DYOR.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,970
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1325809748659343361
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,743
    Of the vaccine is 94% effective in preventing symptoms that means with 100% vaccination only 6% of people get symptoms and at a 0.5-1% CFR the upper ceiling on deaths in the UK would be somewhere around 16k-33k. I'd class that as acceptable and just open everything back up again.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,970
    https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1325810382376734720
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,970
    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1325810351707971588
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,990
    Just a thought

    We get a trade deal with the EU

    The vaccine works and is rolled out across the UK

    The economy improves quickly

    Boris and Joe Biden lead the climate change debate and next year's conference is a great success

    And Boris contradicts all of us who think he should go by staying and investing in the North as promised

    Who knows but it is just possible

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,743
    Mysticrose said:

    How the world works :neutral:

    https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1325772537834442753?s=20

    Let's hope we'll soon be back to the old normal.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,806
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1325809748659343361

    To be fair he does self identify as a looney.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    Alistair said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm slightly suspicious of https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

    Apparently 13 new ballots were dropped in North Carolina, and they split 50/50 between Biden and Trump...

    Have you seen my NC ballot sleuthing? I reckon there is a max of 60,000 actual delivered ballots ready to be counted. Not enough to overturn the Senate or Presidential numbers.
    I have not, but the question I have is (and which you may know the answer to): is the total number outstanding simply the number of mail in ballots yet to be recieved? If so, they won't all come in (50% is probably generous).
    The total mail outstanding figure that was reported was 112,00p but that is simply the number of unreturned Mail ballots not the number received and still to be counted.

    Since Nov 3rd the number of received mail ballots has risen from 936k to 971k (plus a tiny number of overseas and military ballots)

    https://dl.ncsbe.gov/?prefix=Press/NC Absentee Stats for 2020 General Election/

    There's also other pages on the website that give an estimate of actual ballots to count. The important point is that they are all lower than 75k
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,947
    edited November 2020
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1325810351707971588

    Fake self appointed experts in the media though....i have had plenty enough of them.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,170
    MaxPB said:

    Of the vaccine is 94% effective in preventing symptoms that means with 100% vaccination only 6% of people get symptoms and at a 0.5-1% CFR the upper ceiling on deaths in the UK would be somewhere around 16k-33k. I'd class that as acceptable and just open everything back up again.

    Yeah, but that estimate of deaths should not be uttered by anyone of any significance. The government needs to get Labour onside.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    OnboardG1 said:

    His male spawn (with the exception of Barron who, fortunately, isn't old enough quite yet to have become like his brothers) are the ultimate failsons. They are utterly useless leeches who are an embarrasment and a waste of the hideously expensive education lavished on them. In a just world they'd be middle managers at Wal-Mart.

    Or supervising the parking lot at a landscaping company.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,743
    edited November 2020
    Quincel said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I'm slightly suspicious of https://alex.github.io/nyt-2020-election-scraper/battleground-state-changes.html

    Apparently 13 new ballots were dropped in North Carolina, and they split 50/50 between Biden and Trump...

    How had I not seen that website before? Good to see North Carolina actually is doing some results.
    Yes, I wish I'd seen that earlier - it's very useful. "Expand tables" gives you the whole history too.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,856
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1325809748659343361

    Though Kilcooney is no longer even in the UUP, he sits as a Crossbencher in the Lords
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    OnboardG1 said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1325784594591997952?s=20

    They fell out a while ago, didn't they?

    Trump really needs those who have stuck with him because they believe he has the right policy solutions (and perhaps because they like the man) to show genuine concern at this stage over his mental health and legacy, and his impact on trust in US democracy.

    Unfortunately, his pattern over the past four years has been to dump all those people for cynical "yes" men who are in it purely for their own careers (including access to the right wing news circuit, endorsement and money). If he had real friends or people wanting to give wise counsel, they have probably all long gone (or possibly Ivanka is the last woman standing - nobody else in the inner circle, older sons included, gives two sh1ts about the bloke).

    It's all terribly sad in a way (although his own fault). He's the mega-lottery winner or football star who dumped his genuine friends in favour of fake ones, who will simply leach off him until he is a dry husk, then f*** off.
    His male spawn (with the exception of Barron who, fortunately, isn't old enough quite yet to have become like his brothers) are the ultimate failsons. They are utterly useless leeches who are an embarrasment and a waste of the hideously expensive education lavished on them. In a just world they'd be middle managers at Wal-Mart.
    I was thinking more Schitt's Creek where the son ends up bagging the groceries
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,079
    MaxPB said:

    Of the vaccine is 94% effective in preventing symptoms that means with 100% vaccination only 6% of people get symptoms and at a 0.5-1% CFR the upper ceiling on deaths in the UK would be somewhere around 16k-33k. I'd class that as acceptable and just open everything back up again.

    Oh, it's much more encouraging than that.

    We can target the 5% of people most likely to pass it on first - medical staff and care home workers. Because your personal R is different from the population R. Target the high R population, and the medically vulnerable population, and you reduce the likely impact of the disease pretty quickly.

    If AZN/Oxford works as well as Pfizer (which we don't know), *and* we get contracted doses on time (30m AZN by end of year, 10m Pfizer), then it's quite possible that the most vulnerable and most likely to transmit are all vaccinated by Easter. Most restrictions can then be lifted, and the rest of us can then get in line, and expect to be vaccinated in the following 12 months.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,869
    edited November 2020
    I've not read the thread yet but Ladbrokes have paid me. Many thaks to jack and Alistair for persuading me the result was assured enough to to take a 1/6 bet
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Just a thought

    We get a trade deal with the EU

    The vaccine works and is rolled out across the UK

    The economy improves quickly

    Boris and Joe Biden lead the climate change debate and next year's conference is a great success

    And Boris contradicts all of us who think he should go by staying and investing in the North as promised

    Who knows but it is just possible

    And I might get a date with Bradley Cooper
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    RCP still haven't called the election. They still have the race 259/214 for Biden.

    Titter .... :smiley:

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,743
    rcs1000 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    For anyone who thinks Pfizer sat on the results: Didn't quite happen like that. They initially planned a 32 person interim review (ie when 32 people across the whole trial had covid) for the end of October which would have told them if the vaccine was effective, but regulators criticized that as being a bit premature. They agreed with the FDA to do a 64 person interim review and by the time the independent review team had done the unblinding they had 94 cases to work with. Still a fair bit of research to do to close the confidence intervals on the final effectiveness but it looks pretty damned solid.

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/09/covid-19-vaccine-from-pfizer-and-biontech-is-strongly-effective-early-data-from-large-trial-indicate/

    Trump is going to be p1ssed.

    But this is great news because:

    (1) It indicates other messenger RNA vaccines (like AZN/Oxford) are likely to work
    Moderna is mRNA, but the Oxford vaccine is a vector.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,743
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Of the vaccine is 94% effective in preventing symptoms that means with 100% vaccination only 6% of people get symptoms and at a 0.5-1% CFR the upper ceiling on deaths in the UK would be somewhere around 16k-33k. I'd class that as acceptable and just open everything back up again.

    Oh, it's much more encouraging than that.

    We can target the 5% of people most likely to pass it on first - medical staff and care home workers. Because your personal R is different from the population R. Target the high R population, and the medically vulnerable population, and you reduce the likely impact of the disease pretty quickly.

    If AZN/Oxford works as well as Pfizer (which we don't know), *and* we get contracted doses on time (30m AZN by end of year, 10m Pfizer), then it's quite possible that the most vulnerable and most likely to transmit are all vaccinated by Easter. Most restrictions can then be lifted, and the rest of us can then get in line, and expect to be vaccinated in the following 12 months.
    I'm working on the assumption of the vaccine not stopping people being infectious, just stopping symptoms.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,947
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Of the vaccine is 94% effective in preventing symptoms that means with 100% vaccination only 6% of people get symptoms and at a 0.5-1% CFR the upper ceiling on deaths in the UK would be somewhere around 16k-33k. I'd class that as acceptable and just open everything back up again.

    Oh, it's much more encouraging than that.

    We can target the 5% of people most likely to pass it on first - medical staff and care home workers. Because your personal R is different from the population R. Target the high R population, and the medically vulnerable population, and you reduce the likely impact of the disease pretty quickly.

    If AZN/Oxford works as well as Pfizer (which we don't know), *and* we get contracted doses on time (30m AZN by end of year, 10m Pfizer), then it's quite possible that the most vulnerable and most likely to transmit are all vaccinated by Easter. Most restrictions can then be lifted, and the rest of us can then get in line, and expect to be vaccinated in the following 12 months.
    Oh you know how to spoil it all...12 months before I get a jab....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,356
    Quincel said:

    Mysticrose said:

    For those of us following the Casino Royale 52% Biden vote share tip, some encouraging news:

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325801372051181568?s=20

    Yes, I'm on that and while I'm thinking my 2/1 hasn't played out as value a lot of California votes would be very helpful. Even then though, assuming they split 2:1 Biden I don't think 3.6m votes is enough, we need some other states to come through (and there are places like NY/NJ with late votes coming in) too.
    It's available at 10 now.

    I've topped up. Value.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Oh dear...

    https://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2020/11/09/man-featured-at-giuliani-press-conference-is-a-sex-offender-1335241
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,356
    rcs1000 said:

    Quincel said:

    Mysticrose said:

    For those of us following the Casino Royale 52% Biden vote share tip, some encouraging news:

    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1325801372051181568?s=20

    Yes, I'm on that and while I'm thinking my 2/1 hasn't played out as value a lot of California votes would be very helpful. Even then though, assuming they split 2:1 Biden I don't think 3.6m votes is enough, we need some other states to come through (and there are places like NY/NJ with late votes coming in) too.
    On my estimates, Biden falls just short, but DYOR.
    It's still a steal at 10/1.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    there is £4.8k at 1.02 for biden to get more than 75m votes. he already has.
    £540 at 1.01 for trump to get more than 70m votes. he already has.

    https://time.com/5906423/2020-election-results/

    don't understand why these arent settled. would need over a million votes chalking off to make them losers.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,745
    This is well worth a listen. David Frost interviewing Joe Biden, later joined by Jill. From the 1980s. The interview as never broadcast at the time as he dropped out of the race for the nomination.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p08v4nhf?xtor=CS8-1000-[Discovery_Cards]-[Multi_Site]-[SL02]-[PS_SOUNDS~N~~TheFrostTapesFrostBidenBonus




  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,122
    edited November 2020
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Oh dear...

    https://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2020/11/09/man-featured-at-giuliani-press-conference-is-a-sex-offender-1335241

    That picture, with the rusted gantry, and the Trump stickers stuck hopelessly onto a garage door in a square formation, is going to live in the annals of the marvellously surreal, forever.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    OnboardG1 said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1325784594591997952?s=20

    They fell out a while ago, didn't they?

    Trump really needs those who have stuck with him because they believe he has the right policy solutions (and perhaps because they like the man) to show genuine concern at this stage over his mental health and legacy, and his impact on trust in US democracy.

    Unfortunately, his pattern over the past four years has been to dump all those people for cynical "yes" men who are in it purely for their own careers (including access to the right wing news circuit, endorsement and money). If he had real friends or people wanting to give wise counsel, they have probably all long gone (or possibly Ivanka is the last woman standing - nobody else in the inner circle, older sons included, gives two sh1ts about the bloke).

    It's all terribly sad in a way (although his own fault). He's the mega-lottery winner or football star who dumped his genuine friends in favour of fake ones, who will simply leach off him until he is a dry husk, then f*** off.
    His male spawn (with the exception of Barron who, fortunately, isn't old enough quite yet to have become like his brothers) are the ultimate failsons. They are utterly useless leeches who are an embarrasment and a waste of the hideously expensive education lavished on them. In a just world they'd be middle managers at Wal-Mart.
    My wife was in the same class (i.e. intake) as Don Jr. at Penn. One of her friends well remembers seeing Jr. sitting outside his frat house, beer in hand, looking, as she put it, "lost".
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    WhisperingOracle said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Oh dear...

    https://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2020/11/09/man-featured-at-giuliani-press-conference-is-a-sex-offender-1335241

    That picture, with the rusted gantry, and the Trump stickers hopelessly stuck on a garage door in a square formation, is going to live in the annals of the marvellously surreal, forever.
    It's wonderful, isn't it?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    So that's 5.5 million aged 75+, or working in Care Homes:

    https://twitter.com/LordRic52/status/1325777443253260288?s=20

    And given the priority list is:

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1325776285860245504?s=20

    There's the first batch (10 million doses, 2 per patient) of Pfixer vaccine accounted for. Slightly surprised that "NHS clinical staff" not on the priority list....
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,659
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1325809748659343361

    Though Kilcooney is no longer even in the UUP, he sits as a Crossbencher in the Lords
    Is there any process for suspending him?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,797
    CarlottaVance said:

    So that's 5.5 million aged 75+, or working in Care Homes:

    https://twitter.com/LordRic52/status/1325777443253260288?s=20

    And given the priority list is:

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1325776285860245504?s=20

    There's the first batch (10 million doses, 2 per patient) of Pfixer vaccine accounted for. Slightly surprised that "NHS clinical staff" not on the priority list....

    Maybe the calculation is they've had it by then. But that's pretty cold-blooded. More likely someone just didn;t think that some vaccines come in more than one dose.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,079
    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    For anyone who thinks Pfizer sat on the results: Didn't quite happen like that. They initially planned a 32 person interim review (ie when 32 people across the whole trial had covid) for the end of October which would have told them if the vaccine was effective, but regulators criticized that as being a bit premature. They agreed with the FDA to do a 64 person interim review and by the time the independent review team had done the unblinding they had 94 cases to work with. Still a fair bit of research to do to close the confidence intervals on the final effectiveness but it looks pretty damned solid.

    https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/09/covid-19-vaccine-from-pfizer-and-biontech-is-strongly-effective-early-data-from-large-trial-indicate/

    Trump is going to be p1ssed.

    But this is great news because:

    (1) It indicates other messenger RNA vaccines (like AZN/Oxford) are likely to work
    Moderna is mRNA, but the Oxford vaccine is a vector.
    Oops. You're right.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,356
    paulyork64 said:

    there is £4.8k at 1.02 for biden to get more than 75m votes. he already has.
    £540 at 1.01 for trump to get more than 70m votes. he already has.

    https://time.com/5906423/2020-election-results/

    don't understand why these arent settled. would need over a million votes chalking off to make them losers.

    Same with winning the popular vote. Doubt they'll be settled until California has finished, which will probably be last. So a couple of weeks.

    Betfair probably want to hang onto the cash and liquidity.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,743
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    Of the vaccine is 94% effective in preventing symptoms that means with 100% vaccination only 6% of people get symptoms and at a 0.5-1% CFR the upper ceiling on deaths in the UK would be somewhere around 16k-33k. I'd class that as acceptable and just open everything back up again.

    Oh, it's much more encouraging than that.

    We can target the 5% of people most likely to pass it on first - medical staff and care home workers. Because your personal R is different from the population R. Target the high R population, and the medically vulnerable population, and you reduce the likely impact of the disease pretty quickly.

    If AZN/Oxford works as well as Pfizer (which we don't know), *and* we get contracted doses on time (30m AZN by end of year, 10m Pfizer), then it's quite possible that the most vulnerable and most likely to transmit are all vaccinated by Easter. Most restrictions can then be lifted, and the rest of us can then get in line, and expect to be vaccinated in the following 12 months.
    lt's already been announced that we're only going to get 4m, not 30m, doses of the Oxford vaccine by the end of the year (and not even that is definite, and of course it's also two doses per person).
    https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-astrazenec/delivery-timetable-for-oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-slips-uk-official-says-idUKKBN27K2GU

    But supposedly 100m next year are still expected.

    And of course if it's 94% that means the percentage with symptoms in the vaccinated group is only 6% of that in the control group. Given that half or more of cases could be asymptomatic anyway, the percentage liable to have symptomatic infections after vaccination might be only 2% or 3%.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,745
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Just a thought

    We get a trade deal with the EU

    The vaccine works and is rolled out across the UK

    The economy improves quickly

    Boris and Joe Biden lead the climate change debate and next year's conference is a great success

    And Boris contradicts all of us who think he should go by staying and investing in the North as promised

    Who knows but it is just possible

    And I might get a date with Bradley Cooper
    Just saw an interview with Senator Chris Coons (Dem - Delaware) who is very close to Biden. Surprisingly positive about Boris who he has met and found to be quite different from public image in US and much more in tune with the thinking of Biden team on issues like climate change.

    I think the stuff about there being a problem in the relationship between POTUS and PM is misplaced. They'll likely get on fine and will be singing from the same songsheet in Glasgow.

    Suspect HYUFD is spot on about a Brexit deal as well.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    We've done a write-up of the IP issues surrounding the roll-out of Pfizer's covid-19 vaccine:

    https://www.iam-media.com/coronavirus/pfizers-covid-vaccine-found-90-effective-raises-ip-questions
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,563
    Still don’t see Betfair setting anything until all results are properly certified and there’s no chance of any further challenges. They’re just a broker, have customers on both sides and will be risk-averse in calling anything.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,743
    Sandpit said:

    Still don’t see Betfair setting anything until all results are properly certified and there’s no chance of any further challenges. They’re just a broker, have customers on both sides and will be risk-averse in calling anything.

    I seem to remember my winnings on Donald Trump took ages to materialise in 2016 ;-)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,395
    MrEd said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1325784594591997952?s=20

    They fell out a while ago, didn't they?

    Trump really needs those who have stuck with him because they believe he has the right policy solutions (and perhaps because they like the man) to show genuine concern at this stage over his mental health and legacy, and his impact on trust in US democracy.

    Unfortunately, his pattern over the past four years has been to dump all those people for cynical "yes" men who are in it purely for their own careers (including access to the right wing news circuit, endorsement and money). If he had real friends or people wanting to give wise counsel, they have probably all long gone (or possibly Ivanka is the last woman standing - nobody else in the inner circle, older sons included, gives two sh1ts about the bloke).

    It's all terribly sad in a way (although his own fault). He's the mega-lottery winner or football star who dumped his genuine friends in favour of fake ones, who will simply leach off him until he is a dry husk, then f*** off.
    His male spawn (with the exception of Barron who, fortunately, isn't old enough quite yet to have become like his brothers) are the ultimate failsons. They are utterly useless leeches who are an embarrasment and a waste of the hideously expensive education lavished on them. In a just world they'd be middle managers at Wal-Mart.
    I was thinking more Schitt's Creek where the son ends up bagging the groceries
    You're on the early series. 1 or 2.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,654
    edited November 2020
    Burgessian said:

    This is well worth a listen. David Frost interviewing Joe Biden, later joined by Jill. From the 1980s. The interview as never broadcast at the time as he dropped out of the race for the nomination.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p08v4nhf?xtor=CS8-1000-[Discovery_Cards]-[Multi_Site]-[SL02]-[PS_SOUNDS~N~~TheFrostTapesFrostBidenBonus




    Yes, I heard that last night. He didn't seem very likeable. Perhaps that was just culture clash (US vs UK). The tale of how he met Jill also seemed a bit ... odd.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,797
    Burgessian said:

    Roy_G_Biv said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Just a thought

    We get a trade deal with the EU

    The vaccine works and is rolled out across the UK

    The economy improves quickly

    Boris and Joe Biden lead the climate change debate and next year's conference is a great success

    And Boris contradicts all of us who think he should go by staying and investing in the North as promised

    Who knows but it is just possible

    And I might get a date with Bradley Cooper
    Just saw an interview with Senator Chris Coons (Dem - Delaware) who is very close to Biden. Surprisingly positive about Boris who he has met and found to be quite different from public image in US and much more in tune with the thinking of Biden team on issues like climate change.

    I think the stuff about there being a problem in the relationship between POTUS and PM is misplaced. They'll likely get on fine and will be singing from the same songsheet in Glasgow.

    Suspect HYUFD is spot on about a Brexit deal as well.
    Still rather contingent on the Internal Market Bill about being able to ignore the rule of law and tear up the GFA etc at will.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,143
    MightyAlex said:

    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1325809748659343361

    Though Kilcooney is no longer even in the UUP, he sits as a Crossbencher in the Lords
    Is there any process for suspending him?
    In theory he could be suspended or expelled by the House of Lords Privileges and Conduct Committee following a report from the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards.

    It's not totally clear what part of the House of Lords Code of Conduct he's broken (there are some specific rules in there over finances, bullying etc, but this is more general arseholery). However, they might get him on the blanket requirement for Lords to "act on their personal honour" which is nice and vague.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,999
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1325809748659343361

    Is he the looney that wants to partition Scotland if they vote for independence ?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Sandpit said:

    Still don’t see Betfair setting anything until all results are properly certified and there’s no chance of any further challenges. They’re just a broker, have customers on both sides and will be risk-averse in calling anything.

    I agree. Frustrating for those of us who are on to winners but I'd do the same in their shoes. If they settle too early it's not so easy for them to unwind and paying out twice isn't their idea of marketing.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    SouthamObserver said:

    We've done a write-up of the IP issues surrounding the roll-out of Pfizer's covid-19 vaccine:

    https://www.iam-media.com/coronavirus/pfizers-covid-vaccine-found-90-effective-raises-ip-questions

    I understand the IP issues involved, but is this really the time to get into protracted legal disputes over licencing? Seriously - people are dying, economies are being crippled, etc etc.

    If ever there was a case for "sort it out later" this is surely it?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,943
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Oh dear...

    https://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2020/11/09/man-featured-at-giuliani-press-conference-is-a-sex-offender-1335241

    Presumably he felt a bit queasy once he realised the sort of company he was in.
This discussion has been closed.