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As the counts continue it’s looking pretty certain that Biden will be heading for the White House –

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  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 16,498
    Mal557 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Reality is sinking in finally? Its an improvement on STOP THE VOTES
    Look at the date...
  • alex_ said:

    Anyone know when they’re bothering to start counting the mail in votes in Alaska and begin the long March towards Biden taking that one as well?

    Have you considered that the pattern of mail in votes in Alaska might not follow the same pattern as elsewhere, at least to the same extreme of polarisation that we've seen?

    Alaska is rather different to the rest of the US, especially in November, and I suspect they might do things differently there. eg. What if there are places where you can ONLY vote by mail?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540
    OnboardG1 said:

    Can we be clear. Those 8-9k potential ballots in Georgia are a) OVERSEAS and military (I.e expatriate voters) so won’t all be military and b) not actually delivered yet so we don’t know how many will actually arrive. We don’t know how many will arrive and what their composition will be. My hunch is the US military is pretty organised in getting those ballots back to the states so I’m guessing most outstanding ballots are from expatriates. That is just a guess.

    And the deadline is today
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,450
    MrEd said:

    OnboardG1 said:
    There seems to be some disagreement on that - some reports they have been included in the count.
    The article by Nate Cohn that I just linked to says no late ballots have yet been counted.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,219
    rcs1000 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    You know, the flips announced by CNN really will go with the WI/MI/PA theme...

    How is your NV ls 50/50 to NV leans Trump journey looking Robert?
    Oh, I moved to Likely Democrat last night, and it's "Almost Certainly Democrat" now.
    Yeah, almost all the mail ballots are in Clark and split Biden by 11 points so far. Hard to see Trump coming back. AZ is closer but the AZ data peeps seem bearish that Trump can keep the momentum he needs to win it. Likely Biden is the estimate. Georgia will probably stay blue but that’s a bit less certain. Once the remaining 10k odd mail ballots are counted there are 9k possible mil/overseas that might arrive in time (hard to tell lean, possibly a wash), 2k mail ins to be cured (probably lean D), and 5k provisionals (also probably lean D, won’t all be counted).
    In 2016, the military ballot went for Clinton, which I suspect is an artifact of the Georgia military being majority African American. Simply: I can't expect it to have an impact.

    It is possible that the recount changes things, after all there was the whole county where votes were the wrong size and had to be manually recreated. BUT I'd reckon it's less than a 5% chance.

    As it stands, Biden is 99.9% for PA, 98% for GA, 95% for NV, 85% for AZ, and 40% for NC.
    I think that many soldiers have little time for Trump.

    Notable this year was another resounding Republican success in the State legislatures. It looks as if they will hold 59 out of 100.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,481
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    by-election in Aberdeen held yesterday. Kincorth / Nigg / Cove ward

    SNP 1661 (47.4%, +6.7)
    Con 709 (20.2%, -1.3)
    Lab 429 (12.2%, -5.3)
    Ind 367 (10.5%, -0.4)
    Lib Dem 128 (3.6%, -1.6)
    Greens 58 (1.7%, +1.7)
    Ind 92 (2.6%)
    Ind 31 (0.9%)
    Libertarian -16 (0.5%)
    Ind 16 (0.5%)

    SNP hold.

    THanks for that. On checking, I find the election is caused by Stephen Flynn becoiming a SNP MP for Aberdeen South in place of Ross Thomson the Tory. Mr Flynn was top of the slate at the previous cooncil election so we are comparfing like with like (sometimes a problem with interpreting by-elections in those multimember Scoittish local cooncil elections, of course).

    Doesn't promise much for the Scottish Tory fightback - fishing area, too - and still less for SLAB, their local Unionist Alliance partners on the council and the supposed penal battalions for the Union over the next year or so. Still less any tactical voting from Tory to Labour, though that's hardly to be expected here when the Tory was No. 2.
    Aberdeen South has an SNP MP and an SNP MSP so it really just signals no change
    Only had a SNP MP for less thjan a year. The NE fringe is supposed to be a Tory stroinghold. All those fisherfolk, remember.
    Aberdeen South is more a suburb of Aberdeen than a fishing port, next year the Tories should focus on holding the MSPs they have, the gains necessary to deprive the SNP of their majority will need to come from SLab in the central belt winning over Tory and LD tactical voters where SLab are the main opponents to the SNP
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,821
    The best bet I totally failed to make was this. i'm pretty sure i was reading it right but it was a bit mad at the time. I'm not clever enough to post this as a picture and not sure exactly when i posted it. maybe around 3.30am. if there are any of those vote graphs still around it might confirm what the lead was then.

    paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,194
    November 4
    minnesota looks great for JB unless I'm reading it wrong. (almost 300k ahead and I thought this was a red mirage state) is 2/5 value?
    Flag Quote · Off Topic Like

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    50k Nevada votes will be reported today a 9am Nevada time.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540
    OnboardG1 said:

    Can we be clear. Those 8-9k potential ballots in Georgia are a) OVERSEAS and military (I.e expatriate voters) so won’t all be military and b) not actually delivered yet so we don’t know how many will actually arrive. We don’t know how many will arrive and what their composition will be. My hunch is the US military is pretty organised in getting those ballots back to the states so I’m guessing most outstanding ballots are from expatriates. That is just a guess.

    And the deadline is today
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,549
    IanB2 said:

    Presser from SoS GA. confirming over 8000 military votes outstanding, with a deadline for return of today.

    Confirming GA expects a full recount.

    They actually said the Military vote will be anything greater than zero and less than 8890
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,630
    edited November 2020
    Carnyx said:

    by-election in Aberdeen held yesterday. Kincorth / Nigg / Cove ward

    SNP 1661 (47.4%, +6.7)
    Con 709 (20.2%, -1.3)
    Lab 429 (12.2%, -5.3)
    Ind 367 (10.5%, -0.4)
    Lib Dem 128 (3.6%, -1.6)
    Greens 58 (1.7%, +1.7)
    Ind 92 (2.6%)
    Ind 31 (0.9%)
    Libertarian -16 (0.5%)
    Ind 16 (0.5%)

    SNP hold.

    THanks for that. On checking, I find the election is caused by Stephen Flynn becoiming a SNP MP for Aberdeen South in place of Ross Thomson the Tory. Mr Flynn was top of the slate at the previous cooncil election so we are comparfing like with like (sometimes a problem with interpreting by-elections in those multimember Scoittish local cooncil elections, of course).
    The changes compared to last time are computed summing together the 2 SNP 2017 candidates: Flynn polled 27% and Alex Nicoll polled 13.7%

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540
    Mal557 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Reality is sinking in finally? Its an improvement on STOP THE VOTES
    Finally as in, eight years ago?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,042
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,549
    rcs1000 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Do we figure that GA is settled yet, what with those 8000 military ballots? I know the military weren't polled breaking so much for Trump this time, but I wonder if there is still the possibility of some reverse ferret value here?

    Georgia military went for Clinton in 2016, so I suspect they'll go for Biden this time around.

    THAT SAID: I doubt the State will be called until after those are received and tabulated.
    Thats why I cashed my profit out Cant see Betfair settling in November
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562
    MrEd said:

    OnboardG1 said:
    There seems to be some disagreement on that - some reports they have been included in the count.
    They have not been counted because they are under legal challenge. They have been segregated and will only be counted when that is resolved.
  • Alistair said:

    Interesting. Seems like the Lack of door knocking deffo hurt Biden

    https://www.twitter.com/AOC/status/1324696915196416000

    They should have called me, I love canvassing.

    With my knocking up skills the Dems would have won the on the day vote as well.
  • MrEd said:

    OnboardG1 said:
    There seems to be some disagreement on that - some reports they have been included in the count.
    According to NBC they have not.
  • isamisam Posts: 38,523
    MaxPB said:

    National calculated R from the ONS data is 0.9-1.1 depending on the region.

    I finally feel comfortable in saying the nation has turned a corner wrt getting the virus under control, well it did so two weeks ago and we're seeing the data for it now. Next week we should see further drops in the R and hopefully at or below 1 everywhere.

    My Dad heard from his Gardening client, whose daughter is Head of Covid at a hospital, that the vaccine is all done and dusted
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,062
    Alistair said:

    50k Nevada votes will be reported today a 9am Nevada time.

    What time is that in UK?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 7,450
    Scott_xP said:
    What is that supposed to mean? Usually it would mean Biden would be president if someone died. It's gibberish.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,149
    Stocky said:

    Alistair said:

    50k Nevada votes will be reported today a 9am Nevada time.

    What time is that in UK?
    1700. Nevada is on California time.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,549

    MrEd said:

    OnboardG1 said:
    There seems to be some disagreement on that - some reports they have been included in the count.
    According to NBC they have not.
    According to CNN they have not

    According to Fox they have not

    According to the SoS they have not

    According to the Trump Campaign who cares

    Which reports are you referring to
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,219

    alex_ said:

    Anyone know when they’re bothering to start counting the mail in votes in Alaska and begin the long March towards Biden taking that one as well?

    Have you considered that the pattern of mail in votes in Alaska might not follow the same pattern as elsewhere, at least to the same extreme of polarisation that we've seen?

    Alaska is rather different to the rest of the US, especially in November, and I suspect they might do things differently there. eg. What if there are places where you can ONLY vote by mail?
    I think it is vanishingly improbable that Biden has won Alaska.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    Stocky said:

    Alistair said:

    50k Nevada votes will be reported today a 9am Nevada time.

    What time is that in UK?
    5pm
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 655
    Stocky said:

    Alistair said:

    50k Nevada votes will be reported today a 9am Nevada time.

    What time is that in UK?
    5PM
  • isamisam Posts: 38,523
    ...
    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:
    What is that supposed to mean? Usually it would mean Biden would be president if someone died. It's gibberish.
    That's exactly what it meant isn't it?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 3,694

    MrEd said:

    OnboardG1 said:
    There seems to be some disagreement on that - some reports they have been included in the count.
    According to NBC they have not.

    MrEd said:

    OnboardG1 said:
    There seems to be some disagreement on that - some reports they have been included in the count.
    According to NBC they have not.
    Apparently the Guardian is saying they have been. Personally, I would go with the American media but just to flag.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,149
    Sean_F said:

    rcs1000 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    You know, the flips announced by CNN really will go with the WI/MI/PA theme...

    How is your NV ls 50/50 to NV leans Trump journey looking Robert?
    Oh, I moved to Likely Democrat last night, and it's "Almost Certainly Democrat" now.
    Yeah, almost all the mail ballots are in Clark and split Biden by 11 points so far. Hard to see Trump coming back. AZ is closer but the AZ data peeps seem bearish that Trump can keep the momentum he needs to win it. Likely Biden is the estimate. Georgia will probably stay blue but that’s a bit less certain. Once the remaining 10k odd mail ballots are counted there are 9k possible mil/overseas that might arrive in time (hard to tell lean, possibly a wash), 2k mail ins to be cured (probably lean D), and 5k provisionals (also probably lean D, won’t all be counted).
    In 2016, the military ballot went for Clinton, which I suspect is an artifact of the Georgia military being majority African American. Simply: I can't expect it to have an impact.

    It is possible that the recount changes things, after all there was the whole county where votes were the wrong size and had to be manually recreated. BUT I'd reckon it's less than a 5% chance.

    As it stands, Biden is 99.9% for PA, 98% for GA, 95% for NV, 85% for AZ, and 40% for NC.
    I think that many soldiers have little time for Trump.

    Notable this year was another resounding Republican success in the State legislatures. It looks as if they will hold 59 out of 100.

    Pedantic point of the day: It is actually 59 out of 99. Nebraska is unicameral.
  • Stocky said:

    Alistair said:

    50k Nevada votes will be reported today a 9am Nevada time.

    What time is that in UK?
    4:00 pm
  • Stocky said:

    Alistair said:

    50k Nevada votes will be reported today a 9am Nevada time.

    What time is that in UK?
    1700. Nevada is on California time.
    I think it's the only time zone I've ever walked out of and into, on the Hoover Dam bridge.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,733
    MrEd said:

    OnboardG1 said:
    There seems to be some disagreement on that - some reports they have been included in the count.
    So do you think we are back on for a Trump win?
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 655

    MrEd said:

    OnboardG1 said:
    There seems to be some disagreement on that - some reports they have been included in the count.
    According to NBC they have not.
    According to CNN they have not

    According to Fox they have not

    According to the SoS they have not

    According to the Trump Campaign who cares

    Which reports are you referring to
    One report even confirmed they were all wrapped up in bubblewrap for security! And as others have said, they have not been included
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,859
    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    National calculated R from the ONS data is 0.9-1.1 depending on the region.

    I finally feel comfortable in saying the nation has turned a corner wrt getting the virus under control, well it did so two weeks ago and we're seeing the data for it now. Next week we should see further drops in the R and hopefully at or below 1 everywhere.

    My Dad heard from his Gardening client, whose daughter is Head of Covid at a hospital, that the vaccine is all done and dusted
    I've been reliably informed from family and friends who are doctors that the NHS is basically giving remedial training to all medical staff to administer vaccines as they expect to need to administer 150m doses within 6 months for it to be effective which is a huge task.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 655

    MrEd said:

    OnboardG1 said:
    There seems to be some disagreement on that - some reports they have been included in the count.
    So do you think we are back on for a Trump win?
    Only if your surname is Trump,,,,,and perhaps Farage
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540
    Surely the Dems need to put Pelosi out to grass?
  • IanB2 said:

    Mal557 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Reality is sinking in finally? Its an improvement on STOP THE VOTES
    Finally as in, eight years ago?
    Yes, dated 2012.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562
    Re the uncounted Pennsylvania late arriving ballots, I can't see the Supreme Court accepting them. Simply, the legislature said the end of election day, and the Supreme Court changed it to Thursday because of postal delays. The SC will say that the Pennsylvania Court had no right to allow that change.

    This will be the only challenge the SC will hear in Pennsylvania.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 655
    rcs1000 said:

    Re the uncounted Pennsylvania late arriving ballots, I can't see the Supreme Court accepting them. Simply, the legislature said the end of election day, and the Supreme Court changed it to Thursday because of postal delays. The SC will say that the Pennsylvania Court had no right to allow that change.

    This will be the only challenge the SC will hear in Pennsylvania.

    I agree with this Robert, I think Trump will get a win with this but not much else, and those votes wont make a difference of course.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,549
    Mal557 said:

    MrEd said:

    OnboardG1 said:
    There seems to be some disagreement on that - some reports they have been included in the count.
    According to NBC they have not.
    According to CNN they have not

    According to Fox they have not

    According to the SoS they have not

    According to the Trump Campaign who cares

    Which reports are you referring to
    One report even confirmed they were all wrapped up in bubblewrap for security! And as others have said, they have not been included
    It is not news


    But Mr Ed adds to the site and i expect him to confirm which reports shortly.


    If its put their heads on pikes news source it wont sway me
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 36,540

    alex_ said:

    Anyone know when they’re bothering to start counting the mail in votes in Alaska and begin the long March towards Biden taking that one as well?

    Have you considered that the pattern of mail in votes in Alaska might not follow the same pattern as elsewhere, at least to the same extreme of polarisation that we've seen?

    Alaska is rather different to the rest of the US, especially in November, and I suspect they might do things differently there. eg. What if there are places where you can ONLY vote by mail?
    I’m guessing RCS hasn’t been there.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562
    There are another 4,000 mail in votes plus up to 8,800 military ballots in GA to count. (The real number will be smaller.) I suspect that means the overall Biden margin will be in the 4-5,000 vote range.

    While there will be a recount, GA is a Dem pickup.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,549
    60k votes to drop Now AZ
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 12,733

    Chris said:

    Even the BBC now has an article headed "It won't be long now." The conclusion - "the results are what they are".

    I'm glad I don't pay a licence fee.

    The BBC might end up calling the election before the next one, if we're lucky.
    CA won't have finished counting by then, so no call from the BBC.
  • eekeek Posts: 15,818
    AOC has some very valid reasons as to why the Democrats have done badly in places

    https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1324694301234921474
  • 23,287 new cases.
  • NormNorm Posts: 1,248
    Trump has paid the price of alienating moderate Republicans (and I'd be in that category if I lived over there). It may be his appalling boorishness and his other grotesque character traits play better in the States than they do here but frankly few people of reasonable intelligence could put up with such a twat in the White House for another four more years.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562

    23,287 new cases.

    Of Trump voting?
  • https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324744211531403265

    Trump only 52% in latest Maricopa. Not good enough. GG.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited November 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    He’s not going to the inauguration is he? There has to be some chance he leaves D.C. any day now and just doesn’t come back to do his job.

    Edit - oooo, wait, hang on, my long thought dead less bet on Trump leaving office before the end of this first term!
  • I was confusing Arizona and Nevada.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562
    OnboardG1 said:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324744211531403265

    Trump only 52% in latest Maricopa. Not good enough. GG.

    That makes it very hard for Trump to win AZ.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562

    I was confusing Arizona and Nevada.

    Easy enough to do, your honour.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319

    alex_ said:

    Anyone know when they’re bothering to start counting the mail in votes in Alaska and begin the long March towards Biden taking that one as well?

    Have you considered that the pattern of mail in votes in Alaska might not follow the same pattern as elsewhere, at least to the same extreme of polarisation that we've seen?

    Alaska is rather different to the rest of the US, especially in November, and I suspect they might do things differently there. eg. What if there are places where you can ONLY vote by mail?
    It was my fault for getting people excited about Alaska.

    The nimbers do not seem to be there on second look
  • isamisam Posts: 38,523
    edited November 2020
  • rcs1000 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324744211531403265

    Trump only 52% in latest Maricopa. Not good enough. GG.

    That makes it very hard for Trump to win AZ.
    He 'aint gonna do it I think.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,826
    What time did Biden pull ahead in PA and GA?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,062
    OnboardG1 said:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324744211531403265

    Trump only 52% in latest Maricopa. Not good enough. GG.

    Down to 1.05 with Bf now
  • pingping Posts: 1,415
    edited November 2020
    isam said:
    Adonis is an arse, but there now a serious problem re: brexit, no?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,592
    isam said:
    Not a problem if done by democratic means 😎
  • isam said:
    A “rejoin” campaign capable of taking 20% of votes for the LibDems and galvanising his new voters is probably one of the PM’s fantasies isn’t it?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,549
    AZ still 220k to go 140k from same area as just now

    As i said earlier last chance to get 1.27 on Biden

    Its now 1.05
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,526
    isam said:
    Twat. Try learning the lessons that Trump won't. You know, about the will of the people and all that.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 701
    edited November 2020
    Stocky said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324744211531403265

    Trump only 52% in latest Maricopa. Not good enough. GG.

    Down to 1.05 with Bf now
    Worse for Trump that drop was some ratio of late-mail in (strongly R, closer to 15 points) and on the day drop off. That suggests on the day was very D leaning. Biden could actually extend his lead in the next set of drops.
  • Chris said:

    Even the BBC now has an article headed "It won't be long now." The conclusion - "the results are what they are".

    I'm glad I don't pay a licence fee.

    The BBC might end up calling the election before the next one, if we're lucky.
    They are utterly hopeless.

    I flicked over last night just to see – lasted about two minutes despairing at the drivel they were putting out.
    Though the Beeb have called ME-02 for Trump, CNN have not yet.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 30,219
    isam said:
    It makes a change from wanting to pull down statues.

    He is seriously …...odd.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562

    alex_ said:

    Anyone know when they’re bothering to start counting the mail in votes in Alaska and begin the long March towards Biden taking that one as well?

    Have you considered that the pattern of mail in votes in Alaska might not follow the same pattern as elsewhere, at least to the same extreme of polarisation that we've seen?

    Alaska is rather different to the rest of the US, especially in November, and I suspect they might do things differently there. eg. What if there are places where you can ONLY vote by mail?
    Almost all the permanent Alaskan population is around Anchorage and Juneau, isn't it?

    Mail in voting in AK doesn't even start until next week. The Senate race *might* be interesting, and the state is trending Blue, but I'd be very surprised if it didn't stay Red at the Presidential level.

    Still, who the fuck knows. This election has thrown a ridiculous number of curve balls.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited November 2020
    ping said:

    isam said:
    Adonis is an arse, but there now a serious problem re: brexit, no?
    Why? There’ll be no US trade deal, which was always going to be the case, but with the advantage of not even being offered a shit one by Trump we’re pressured to accept. The grand strategy is, presumably, to become part of the Pacific deal so that ultimately we get the US through that route by default.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,554
    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    National calculated R from the ONS data is 0.9-1.1 depending on the region.

    I finally feel comfortable in saying the nation has turned a corner wrt getting the virus under control, well it did so two weeks ago and we're seeing the data for it now. Next week we should see further drops in the R and hopefully at or below 1 everywhere.

    My Dad heard from his Gardening client, whose daughter is Head of Covid at a hospital, that the vaccine is all done and dusted
    Sorry to be thick but that seems ambiguous! Done and dusted = no good OR done and dusted = ready to go?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,549
    OnboardG1 said:

    Stocky said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324744211531403265

    Trump only 52% in latest Maricopa. Not good enough. GG.

    Down to 1.05 with Bf now
    Worse for Trump that drop was some ratio of late-mail in (strongly R, closer to 15 points) and on the day drop off. That suggests on the day was very D leaning. Biden could actually extend his lead in the next set of drops.
    Yep even the 1.06 free money would be worth it apart from the likely settlement date
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Norm said:

    Trump has paid the price of alienating moderate Republicans (and I'd be in that category if I lived over there). It may be his appalling boorishness and his other grotesque character traits play better in the States than they do here but frankly few people of reasonable intelligence could put up with such a twat in the White House for another four more years.

    Indeed and a number of my right-leaning friends are commenting on how dignified and, well, Presidential Joe Biden is being. They seem as pleased as I am.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 4,554
    MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    National calculated R from the ONS data is 0.9-1.1 depending on the region.

    I finally feel comfortable in saying the nation has turned a corner wrt getting the virus under control, well it did so two weeks ago and we're seeing the data for it now. Next week we should see further drops in the R and hopefully at or below 1 everywhere.

    My Dad heard from his Gardening client, whose daughter is Head of Covid at a hospital, that the vaccine is all done and dusted
    I've been reliably informed from family and friends who are doctors that the NHS is basically giving remedial training to all medical staff to administer vaccines as they expect to need to administer 150m doses within 6 months for it to be effective which is a huge task.
    It can't be that hard to do - I mean pharmacists do it...
    (I educate pharmacists at Uni, so I'm allowed to say this!)
  • isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    National calculated R from the ONS data is 0.9-1.1 depending on the region.

    I finally feel comfortable in saying the nation has turned a corner wrt getting the virus under control, well it did so two weeks ago and we're seeing the data for it now. Next week we should see further drops in the R and hopefully at or below 1 everywhere.

    My Dad heard from his Gardening client, whose daughter is Head of Covid at a hospital, that the vaccine is all done and dusted
    Sorry to be thick but that seems ambiguous! Done and dusted = no good OR done and dusted = ready to go?
    I would be very sceptical of those sort of Chinese whispers for exactly that reason.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562
    Sean_F said:

    isam said:
    It makes a change from wanting to pull down statues.

    He is seriously …...odd.
    Everyone needs a hobby.
  • Andy_JS said:

    What time did Biden pull ahead in PA and GA?

    I think PA was ≈ 2pm.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562

    ping said:

    isam said:
    Adonis is an arse, but there now a serious problem re: brexit, no?
    Why? There’ll be no US trade deal, which was always going to be the case, but with the advantage of not even being offered a shit one by Trump we’re pressured to accept. The grand strategy is, presumably, to become part of the Pacific deal so that ultimately we get the US through that route by default.
    That assumes the US rejoins the Trans Pacific Partnership. (Which would be amazing for the world, if it happened.)
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,092
    Sean_F said:

    alex_ said:

    Anyone know when they’re bothering to start counting the mail in votes in Alaska and begin the long March towards Biden taking that one as well?

    Have you considered that the pattern of mail in votes in Alaska might not follow the same pattern as elsewhere, at least to the same extreme of polarisation that we've seen?

    Alaska is rather different to the rest of the US, especially in November, and I suspect they might do things differently there. eg. What if there are places where you can ONLY vote by mail?
    I think it is vanishingly improbable that Biden has won Alaska.
    AK Rep is 1.03 and good value at it. Hasn't been blue since LBJ.
  • Trump now needs to average 63% of the remaining votes in Arizona if he is to win, having only got 52% in the latest batch.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,549

    23,287 new cases.

    How many Deaths?

  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Re. North Carolina and Alaska, here's from the 538 live blog. I don't think Alaska is over. Actually neither of them are entirely.

    "You might be wondering about North Carolina and Alaska, two unprojected states that we haven’t heard a peep from in days. Well, there’s a good reason for that: Both states accept absentee ballots that arrive as late as next week, and they won’t provide any updates until Nov. 10 (in Alaska) and Nov. 12 or 13 (in North Carolina). In fact, Alaska hasn’t released any absentee-ballot results yet, so that state (and its surprisingly competitive Senate race) is still up in the air."

    And whatever Thom Tillis thinks, he hasn't yet defeated Cal Cunningham for the Senate. The Alaska Senate race is also not a given.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,910
    Mal557 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Reality is sinking in finally? Its an improvement on STOP THE VOTES
    Check the date
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,478
    edited November 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    Anyone know when they’re bothering to start counting the mail in votes in Alaska and begin the long March towards Biden taking that one as well?

    Have you considered that the pattern of mail in votes in Alaska might not follow the same pattern as elsewhere, at least to the same extreme of polarisation that we've seen?

    Alaska is rather different to the rest of the US, especially in November, and I suspect they might do things differently there. eg. What if there are places where you can ONLY vote by mail?
    Almost all the permanent Alaskan population is around Anchorage and Juneau, isn't it?

    Mail in voting in AK doesn't even start until next week. The Senate race *might* be interesting, and the state is trending Blue, but I'd be very surprised if it didn't stay Red at the Presidential level.

    Still, who the fuck knows. This election has thrown a ridiculous number of curve balls.
    Don't forget Fairbanks.
    And there are a number of tiny settlements hundreds of miles from the next.
    But yeah. It will stay Rep.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562
    Drutt said:

    Sean_F said:

    alex_ said:

    Anyone know when they’re bothering to start counting the mail in votes in Alaska and begin the long March towards Biden taking that one as well?

    Have you considered that the pattern of mail in votes in Alaska might not follow the same pattern as elsewhere, at least to the same extreme of polarisation that we've seen?

    Alaska is rather different to the rest of the US, especially in November, and I suspect they might do things differently there. eg. What if there are places where you can ONLY vote by mail?
    I think it is vanishingly improbable that Biden has won Alaska.
    AK Rep is 1.03 and good value at it. Hasn't been blue since LBJ.
    That's reward free risk, and you could end up with your money tied up for two months.

    Sure, you'll probably win, but it's like picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 655

    OnboardG1 said:

    Stocky said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324744211531403265

    Trump only 52% in latest Maricopa. Not good enough. GG.

    Down to 1.05 with Bf now
    Worse for Trump that drop was some ratio of late-mail in (strongly R, closer to 15 points) and on the day drop off. That suggests on the day was very D leaning. Biden could actually extend his lead in the next set of drops.
    Yep even the 1.06 free money would be worth it apart from the likely settlement date
    Can't see Trump getting close to 60% of all those 220,000 left in AZ, but I do expect once it gets to a point where he clearly cant win there he will raise some spurious legal issue there. Regardless if Biden is heading for 306 Trump , at least for now is going to cry foul. Losing is bad enough, for him losing to Biden is humiliating so he's just going to keep making more and more erratic claims
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Biden now 9000 ahead in PA.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Sean_F said:

    alex_ said:

    Anyone know when they’re bothering to start counting the mail in votes in Alaska and begin the long March towards Biden taking that one as well?

    Have you considered that the pattern of mail in votes in Alaska might not follow the same pattern as elsewhere, at least to the same extreme of polarisation that we've seen?

    Alaska is rather different to the rest of the US, especially in November, and I suspect they might do things differently there. eg. What if there are places where you can ONLY vote by mail?
    I think it is vanishingly improbable that Biden has won Alaska.
    Didn't you tell me that about Georgia when I said Biden was going to win it?

    (Apologies if it wasn't you.)

    Alaska is NOT a given and neither is it "vanishingly improbable".
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,549

    Trump now needs to average 63% of the remaining votes in Arizona if he is to win, having only got 52% in the latest batch.

    And the 140k batch still worse for him.

    Wouldnt surprise me if the final margin was 30k or more
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562
    edited November 2020
    Mal557 said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Stocky said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324744211531403265

    Trump only 52% in latest Maricopa. Not good enough. GG.

    Down to 1.05 with Bf now
    Worse for Trump that drop was some ratio of late-mail in (strongly R, closer to 15 points) and on the day drop off. That suggests on the day was very D leaning. Biden could actually extend his lead in the next set of drops.
    Yep even the 1.06 free money would be worth it apart from the likely settlement date
    Can't see Trump getting close to 60% of all those 220,000 left in AZ, but I do expect once it gets to a point where he clearly cant win there he will raise some spurious legal issue there. Regardless if Biden is heading for 306 Trump , at least for now is going to cry foul. Losing is bad enough, for him losing to Biden is humiliating so he's just going to keep making more and more erratic claims
    I don't think there are 220k left in AZ, I think it's more like 140k. (Although that may exclude provisional ballots.)
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 655
    alex_ said:

    Mal557 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Reality is sinking in finally? Its an improvement on STOP THE VOTES
    Check the date
    Doh!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 68,477
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    isam said:
    It makes a change from wanting to pull down statues.

    He is seriously …...odd.
    Everyone needs a hobby.
    Defying democracy isn't a good look.

    Trump now needs to average 63% of the remaining votes in Arizona if he is to win, having only got 52% in the latest batch.

    He doesn't really have a Philadelphia fortress within Arizona.
  • dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    Anyone know when they’re bothering to start counting the mail in votes in Alaska and begin the long March towards Biden taking that one as well?

    Have you considered that the pattern of mail in votes in Alaska might not follow the same pattern as elsewhere, at least to the same extreme of polarisation that we've seen?

    Alaska is rather different to the rest of the US, especially in November, and I suspect they might do things differently there. eg. What if there are places where you can ONLY vote by mail?
    Almost all the permanent Alaskan population is around Anchorage and Juneau, isn't it?

    Mail in voting in AK doesn't even start until next week. The Senate race *might* be interesting, and the state is trending Blue, but I'd be very surprised if it didn't stay Red at the Presidential level.

    Still, who the fuck knows. This election has thrown a ridiculous number of curve balls.
    Don't forget Fairbanks.
    Alaska is weird. We have some equipment there supporting the oil industry (I get to go to the middle of nowhere to upgrade it at some point). Almost none of the oil guys live in state, but it’s very important for the local economy. On the other hand the Alaskans can be very environmentally minded. It’s probably the most ideologically unique state in the union, which is how Lisa Murkowski can win as a write in.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Drutt said:

    Sean_F said:

    alex_ said:

    Anyone know when they’re bothering to start counting the mail in votes in Alaska and begin the long March towards Biden taking that one as well?

    Have you considered that the pattern of mail in votes in Alaska might not follow the same pattern as elsewhere, at least to the same extreme of polarisation that we've seen?

    Alaska is rather different to the rest of the US, especially in November, and I suspect they might do things differently there. eg. What if there are places where you can ONLY vote by mail?
    I think it is vanishingly improbable that Biden has won Alaska.
    AK Rep is 1.03 and good value at it. Hasn't been blue since LBJ.
    Georgia hasn't been blue since 1992 ... those odds are terrible value.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    rcs1000 said:

    alex_ said:

    Anyone know when they’re bothering to start counting the mail in votes in Alaska and begin the long March towards Biden taking that one as well?

    Have you considered that the pattern of mail in votes in Alaska might not follow the same pattern as elsewhere, at least to the same extreme of polarisation that we've seen?

    Alaska is rather different to the rest of the US, especially in November, and I suspect they might do things differently there. eg. What if there are places where you can ONLY vote by mail?
    Almost all the permanent Alaskan population is around Anchorage and Juneau, isn't it?

    Mail in voting in AK doesn't even start until next week. The Senate race *might* be interesting, and the state is trending Blue, but I'd be very surprised if it didn't stay Red at the Presidential level.

    Still, who the fuck knows. This election has thrown a ridiculous number of curve balls.
    Biden and the Senate candidate are running neck and neck
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,791
    I wonder if Trump being behind by thousands (and more) in several key states will restrict the fervour of the post-election litigation. It's so unlikely to change the overall result that I suspect some key allies will step back from supporting/funding some of it.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319

    Re. North Carolina and Alaska, here's from the 538 live blog. I don't think Alaska is over. Actually neither of them are entirely.

    "You might be wondering about North Carolina and Alaska, two unprojected states that we haven’t heard a peep from in days. Well, there’s a good reason for that: Both states accept absentee ballots that arrive as late as next week, and they won’t provide any updates until Nov. 10 (in Alaska) and Nov. 12 or 13 (in North Carolina). In fact, Alaska hasn’t released any absentee-ballot results yet, so that state (and its surprisingly competitive Senate race) is still up in the air."

    And whatever Thom Tillis thinks, he hasn't yet defeated Cal Cunningham for the Senate. The Alaska Senate race is also not a given.

    If the Dems end up with a 1 seat majority in the Senate with a double run off in Georgia to come I will laugh my cock off.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 41,562
    edited November 2020
    Is it me, or has Nate Cohn been a better analyser than Nate Silver this election? (At least on the night and subsequent days.)

    They get super kudos for having GA as a 56% Dem chance on their needle when it was at about 9s on Betfair.
This discussion has been closed.