The BBC quotes a statement by Trump's lawyer (he managed to find one, apparently) specifying complaints about Pennsylvania, Georgia and Nevada, and denying that Biden would win Arizona (which is really a matter for a psephologist, not a lawyer).
It all seems very odd. The complaint about Pennsylvania is the one about observers, which seems feeble in the extreme. But even if the Pennsylvania result was reversed by a court, supposing Biden did win Arizona. Then they'd need to reverse the results in both Georgia and Nevada as well.
If they were serious about this, wouldn't they be challenging the results in other states as well?
Well if it becomes clear AZ isnt going red after all I'm sure some 'shenanigans' will miraculously be discovered there.
Biden's lead in Pennsylvania is creeping up - now 6,817.
As far as I can tell it's not going to be anywhere near as high as I thought. Unless theres a lot of counties out there holding onto mail ballot. Philly is nearly donw.
FoxLiveBlogTeam 45 seconds ago Biden campaign turns up the heat
Biden campaign spokesman Andrew Bates: "As we said on July 19th, the American people will decide this election. And the United States government is perfectly capable of escorting trespassers out of the White House.”
Are you on the Jeroboams (previously Laytons) private client list? They have just sent out an interesting private cellar for sale. Plenty of fun and not anymore tannic wines on there!!!
No, I'm not. Anything particularly appealing?
I think I just tried to send it to you by pm
Let me know if there was no attachment.
Looking at it in some more detail - much of it is too young but some nice wines from some drinking years 2000, 2003, 2004. I'll pm you my contact there if you're interested although I'm sure you have your own routes to such wines.
Biden's lead in Pennsylvania is creeping up - now 6,817.
As far as I can tell it's not going to be anywhere near as high as I thought. Unless theres a lot of counties out there holding onto mail ballot. Philly is nearly donw.
Biden's lead in Pennsylvania is creeping up - now 6,817.
There are 120,000 more ballots PLUS late arriving ballots to come there.
If assume 160,000 in total, and give them 3:1 to Biden, that increases his lead to just under 100,000 votes.
That's not going to be overturned.
1.05 is stonking value.
How do you see Arizona?
I continue to see Biden winning by 3% or so.
I mean, I could be wrong, but the last votes to count will be the late arriving postals (should be for him), and the provisionals (which will be more mixed) and some on the day drop offs (maybe favour Trump).
If Trump sends out email to enthusiasts saying he'll fight on, they'll send him money. He needs and wants money.
So doesn't he just put up a few token lawsuits and keep the rest of the money? Jill Stein raised a fair bit in 2016 for recounts that never happened and she wasn't even the runner-up.
Biden's lead in Pennsylvania is creeping up - now 6,817.
As far as I can tell it's not going to be anywhere near as high as I thought. Unless theres a lot of counties out there holding onto mail ballot. Philly is nearly donw.
I am not sure all this kind of stuff is helpful. Trump obviously needs to concede or be shortly removed, but they should not forget that they have only just won what should have been a slam dunk against the worst president ever...and a huge number of people have voted for Trump, or for what Trump supposed policy stances are.
When they go low, we go high and at all. Plus its a volatile situation, the big baby in the white house is already pouring enough oil on the fire without other provoking reactions.
Biden's lead in Pennsylvania is creeping up - now 6,817.
There are 120,000 more ballots PLUS late arriving ballots to come there.
If assume 160,000 in total, and give them 3:1 to Biden, that increases his lead to just under 100,000 votes.
That's not going to be overturned.
1.05 is stonking value.
Philly have said they have 25,000 ballots left. Where are you getting 120k left from? HAs literally no other county counted votes today?
NY Times: There are 130,000 ballots left to count in Pennsylvania, many from Democratic-leaning areas. Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) has at least 37,000, and the Philadelphia suburbs have about 20,000.
Yes, at the moment it does look like Biden will be President elect, the question is now merely about his margin of victory.
If confirmed it will be a historic feat he has achieved, only the second presidential candidate alongside Ronald Reagan since 1900 to defeat an incumbent President after only 1 term of his party in the White House
Indeed.
The only first term (party wise) losers since 1900: Carter, Trump.
Trump deserves a legacy like that.
As he himself admits, Carter is a far better ex-President than he was President. I think he will be remembered fondly by history as nice guy in the wrong place and definitely at the wrong time. Trump will need a personality transplant and a religious experience to achieve that.
Sometimes, people just get unlucky (like Carter). Carter had a remarkably distinguished career, prior to become Governor of Georgia, and is a far better man than Trump.
Biden's lead in Pennsylvania is creeping up - now 6,817.
As far as I can tell it's not going to be anywhere near as high as I thought. Unless theres a lot of counties out there holding onto mail ballot. Philly is nearly donw.
I predicted 60K. We'll see.
40-60 range looks about right to me. there are 35K votes in one state left that got delayed til today if he gets 80% of those (quite poss) thats another +27 there
In a strange way the legal challenges however spurious , the recounts that won't change the result, might have taken some of the heat out of the situation. I mean at what point do the militias come out onto the streets - by the time legal avenues have been exhausted most people, including most of the republican party elected officials will have already accepted the result. Trump probably never will, but I think he might find himself quite rapidly rather isolated, although still with a few million dedicated followers...
Yes but that’s only Philly. There’s tens of thousands more throughout Pennsylvania.
Well, that;s the thing, I don't think there has been a statement by an eelction offical about how many are left adn the official state website hasn't updated all day
If not one else has been counting today then there's 100k plus left to count. But I don't think we can actually say how many are left.
Biden's lead in Pennsylvania is creeping up - now 6,817.
As far as I can tell it's not going to be anywhere near as high as I thought. Unless theres a lot of counties out there holding onto mail ballot. Philly is nearly donw.
I predicted 60K. We'll see.
40-60 range looks about right to me. there are 35K votes in one state left that got delayed til today if he gets 80% of those (quite poss) thats another +27 there
If those are Alleghenny then they will split 85/12 to Biden
Biden's lead in Pennsylvania is creeping up - now 6,817.
There are 120,000 more ballots PLUS late arriving ballots to come there.
If assume 160,000 in total, and give them 3:1 to Biden, that increases his lead to just under 100,000 votes.
That's not going to be overturned.
1.05 is stonking value.
Philly have said they have 25,000 ballots left. Where are you getting 120k left from? HAs literally no other county counted votes today?
NY Times: There are 130,000 ballots left to count in Pennsylvania, many from Democratic-leaning areas. Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) has at least 37,000, and the Philadelphia suburbs have about 20,000.
That would tally with only Philly counting today. In which case stroll on Biden, stroll on.
Yes, at the moment it does look like Biden will be President elect, the question is now merely about his margin of victory.
If confirmed it will be a historic feat he has achieved, only the second presidential candidate alongside Ronald Reagan since 1900 to defeat an incumbent President after only 1 term of his party in the White House
Indeed.
The only first term (party wise) losers since 1900: Carter, Trump.
Trump deserves a legacy like that.
As he himself admits, Carter is a far better ex-President than he was President. I think he will be remembered fondly by history as nice guy in the wrong place and definitely at the wrong time. Trump will need a personality transplant and a religious experience to achieve that.
Sometimes, people just get unlucky (like Carter). Carter had a remarkably distinguished career, prior to become Governor of Georgia, and is a far better man than Trump.
I like to hope most people on the planet are far better people than Trump.
Biden's lead in Pennsylvania is creeping up - now 6,817.
As far as I can tell it's not going to be anywhere near as high as I thought. Unless theres a lot of counties out there holding onto mail ballot. Philly is nearly donw.
I predicted 60K. We'll see.
40-60 range looks about right to me. there are 35K votes in one state left that got delayed til today if he gets 80% of those (quite poss) thats another +27 there
Late arriving postals have been segregated and are nor included in the counts.
Biden's lead in Pennsylvania is creeping up - now 6,817.
As far as I can tell it's not going to be anywhere near as high as I thought. Unless theres a lot of counties out there holding onto mail ballot. Philly is nearly donw.
I predicted 60K. We'll see.
Me: 97,480, as you'll all remember.
I do remember that from you, think it might be less but still a chance it could be that high, the postal vote % for Biden is hitting 80% plus even in some red counties too
Yes but that’s only Philly. There’s tens of thousands more throughout Pennsylvania.
Well, that;s the thing, I don't think there has been a statement by an eelction offical about how many are left adn the official state website hasn't updated all day
If not one else has been counting today then there's 100k plus left to count. But I don't think we can actually say how many are left.
Hard to say really, I was going by the numbers last night which suggested 160k left and Biden going 75/25 which would put him up by about 60k (although he’s been outpacing that in Philly and the suburbs). I think he’s still on track for that.
There was an interesting conversation on this yesterday between rcs and Mr Ed. Apologies for paraphrasing but it went like this:
Mr Ed - Republicans genuinely believe there has been fraud RCS - Mail in fraud could be checked easily via anaylsis, why not check it if you believe it Mr Ed - Republicans still believe in it RCS - Its not a genuine belief
What I think rcs is missing is that Trump Republicans are not swayed by rational analysis at all, but by beliefs (which is the word they use). It is a religious movement built wholly on emotion and then shaping the world to those emotions, not a rational analytical one that seeks to see how the world actually is.
In Trump Republican minds it genuinely isnt fair, just as in the mind of some extremist Muslims someone drawing a cartoon causes great offence.
The bets have obviously not all been settled yet, but thanks are due to those who tipped generous winners.
The Biden EC supremacy SPIN market. I cashed out early but up by a big number.
The ludicrously long price on Biden in the early hours. I went back into the spreads at 35
The 7/1 mixed market at PP, still looking good
And the uncalled states today. I took the 8 available on North Carolina just hours ago and it has been green since
I made some dumb trades too, but overall my book is green
On the basis of a couple of apparent extremely early swings in the first counties to report in Kentucky I made decision that Biden looked well on course to win and called it here accordingly. Clearly that was dumb at the time and for a long time looked even dumber in hindsight.
Although the overall call now looks right (just, touchwood), if any punters here who took note then lost out by betting on the scale of Biden's win, I offer an unreserved apology.
Having gone to bed a few hours later convinced that Biden was then on course to lose, it was very pleasant to wake up on Thursday morning to the growing realisation that Biden might after all still be in with a chance, given that Biden was ahead in AZ and NE-2 plus the fact that he was a lot closer by then in WI and MI. The reverse of the experience of 20 years earlier, after going to bed at a point where Florida had been called for Gore by the networks.
Do we figure that GA is settled yet, what with those 8000 military ballots? I know the military weren't polled breaking so much for Trump this time, but I wonder if there is still the possibility of some reverse ferret value here?
This wasn't a bad shout. I missed GA completely and called PA and ME2 the wrong way, but results as they stand are less than 36000 votes from my prediction. Note I could also get AZ wrong, but that's a big old punt now
This wasn't a bad shout. I missed GA completely and called PA and ME2 the wrong way, but results as they stand are less than 36000 votes from my prediction. Note I could also get AZ wrong, but that's a big old punt now
Do we figure that GA is settled yet, what with those 8000 military ballots? I know the military weren't polled breaking so much for Trump this time, but I wonder if there is still the possibility of some reverse ferret value here?
Indeed, the exit poll shows those who had served in the military voted 52% Trump 45% Biden while those who had not served in the military voted 52% Biden and 46% Trump
by-election in Aberdeen held yesterday. Kincorth / Nigg / Cove ward
SNP 1661 (47.4%, +6.7) Con 709 (20.2%, -1.3) Lab 429 (12.2%, -5.3) Ind 367 (10.5%, -0.4) Lib Dem 128 (3.6%, -1.6) Greens 58 (1.7%, +1.7) Ind 92 (2.6%) Ind 31 (0.9%) Libertarian -16 (0.5%) Ind 16 (0.5%)
SNP hold.
THanks for that. On checking, I find the election is caused by Stephen Flynn becoiming a SNP MP for Aberdeen South in place of Ross Thomson the Tory. Mr Flynn was top of the slate at the previous cooncil election so we are comparfing like with like (sometimes a problem with interpreting by-elections in those multimember Scoittish local cooncil elections, of course).
Doesn't promise much for the Scottish Tory fightback - fishing area, too - and still less for SLAB, their local Unionist Alliance partners on the council and the supposed penal battalions for the Union over the next year or so. Still less any tactical voting from Tory to Labour, though that's hardly to be expected here when the Tory was No. 2.
Given how mail in votes have favoured the Dems, and the mail in has not even started being counted in Alaska, could that be a shock victory for them?
Probably not, but the Senate race *might* be interesting.
Probably not, given that living in a frozen wilderness in November raises the small possibility that people might have other reasons for applying for a mail-in vote.
Over-analysing the data on numbers of mail-in votes and their return is the biggest single mistake PB’ers have made in this election.
There have been another 13 deaths in Wales, taking the total since the start of the pandemic to 1,982. Public Health Wales also said there had been a further 1,352 cases of coronavirus, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 58,279.
No real sign yet of any slow down in new cases in Wales.
Do we figure that GA is settled yet, what with those 8000 military ballots? I know the military weren't polled breaking so much for Trump this time, but I wonder if there is still the possibility of some reverse ferret value here?
Georgia military went for Clinton in 2016, so I suspect they'll go for Biden this time around.
THAT SAID: I doubt the State will be called until after those are received and tabulated.
You know, the flips announced by CNN really will go with the WI/MI/PA theme...
How is your NV ls 50/50 to NV leans Trump journey looking Robert?
Oh, I moved to Likely Democrat last night, and it's "Almost Certainly Democrat" now.
Yeah, almost all the mail ballots are in Clark and split Biden by 11 points so far. Hard to see Trump coming back. AZ is closer but the AZ data peeps seem bearish that Trump can keep the momentum he needs to win it. Likely Biden is the estimate. Georgia will probably stay blue but that’s a bit less certain. Once the remaining 10k odd mail ballots are counted there are 9k possible mil/overseas that might arrive in time (hard to tell lean, possibly a wash), 2k mail ins to be cured (probably lean D), and 5k provisionals (also probably lean D, won’t all be counted).
I am not sure all this kind of stuff is helpful. Trump obviously needs to concede or be shortly removed, but they should not forget that they have only just won what should have been a slam dunk against the worst president ever...and a huge number of people have voted for Trump, or for what Trump supposed policy stances are.
When they go low, we go high and at all. Plus its a volatile situation, the big baby in the white house is already pouring enough oil on the fire without other provoking reactions.
I am not sure all this kind of stuff is helpful. Trump obviously needs to concede or be shortly removed, but they should not forget that they have only just won what should have been a slam dunk against the worst president ever...and a huge number of people have voted for Trump, or for what Trump supposed policy stances are.
When they go low, we go high and at all. Plus its a volatile situation, the big baby in the white house is already pouring enough oil on the fire without other provoking reactions.
Otoh don't forget for a lot of campaign staffers, this is the end, and they'll be looking for new jobs next week.
There have been another 13 deaths in Wales, taking the total since the start of the pandemic to 1,982. Public Health Wales also said there had been a further 1,352 cases of coronavirus, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 58,279.
No real sign yet of any slow down in new cases in Wales.
Biden's lead in Pennsylvania is creeping up - now 6,817.
As far as I can tell it's not going to be anywhere near as high as I thought. Unless theres a lot of counties out there holding onto mail ballot. Philly is nearly donw.
Essentially he seems to think about 70,000 once the absentee ballots are counted, or possibly as much as 100,000 because much of the outstanding vote is from Philadelphia and Allegheny Counties. He thinks there might be a legal challenge to those received after election day, but there aren't more than 30,000 of those. And the provisional ballots normally favour the Democrats but are hard to predict this time.
by-election in Aberdeen held yesterday. Kincorth / Nigg / Cove ward
SNP 1661 (47.4%, +6.7) Con 709 (20.2%, -1.3) Lab 429 (12.2%, -5.3) Ind 367 (10.5%, -0.4) Lib Dem 128 (3.6%, -1.6) Greens 58 (1.7%, +1.7) Ind 92 (2.6%) Ind 31 (0.9%) Libertarian -16 (0.5%) Ind 16 (0.5%)
SNP hold.
THanks for that. On checking, I find the election is caused by Stephen Flynn becoiming a SNP MP for Aberdeen South in place of Ross Thomson the Tory. Mr Flynn was top of the slate at the previous cooncil election so we are comparfing like with like (sometimes a problem with interpreting by-elections in those multimember Scoittish local cooncil elections, of course).
Doesn't promise much for the Scottish Tory fightback - fishing area, too - and still less for SLAB, their local Unionist Alliance partners on the council and the supposed penal battalions for the Union over the next year or so. Still less any tactical voting from Tory to Labour, though that's hardly to be expected here when the Tory was No. 2.
Aberdeen South has an SNP MP and an SNP MSP so it really just signals no change
There have been another 13 deaths in Wales, taking the total since the start of the pandemic to 1,982. Public Health Wales also said there had been a further 1,352 cases of coronavirus, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 58,279.
No real sign yet of any slow down in new cases in Wales.
The Welsh "firebreak" has been a disaster.
Well as we all know, we won't really be able to judge it for a while...however then releasing people from it without any real clue, and telling people they able to get involved in activities with 15 people inside and 30 outside, is as stupid as banning oven glove sales in Tesco.
You know, the flips announced by CNN really will go with the WI/MI/PA theme...
How is your NV ls 50/50 to NV leans Trump journey looking Robert?
Oh, I moved to Likely Democrat last night, and it's "Almost Certainly Democrat" now.
Yeah, almost all the mail ballots are in Clark and split Biden by 11 points so far. Hard to see Trump coming back. AZ is closer but the AZ data peeps seem bearish that Trump can keep the momentum he needs to win it. Likely Biden is the estimate. Georgia will probably stay blue but that’s a bit less certain. Once the remaining 10k odd mail ballots are counted there are 9k possible mil/overseas that might arrive in time (hard to tell lean, possibly a wash), 2k mail ins to be cured (probably lean D), and 5k provisionals (also probably lean D, won’t all be counted).
In 2016, the military ballot went for Clinton, which I suspect is an artifact of the Georgia military being majority African American. Simply: I can't expect it to have an impact.
It is possible that the recount changes things, after all there was the whole county where votes were the wrong size and had to be manually recreated. BUT I'd reckon it's less than a 5% chance.
As it stands, Biden is 99.9% for PA, 98% for GA, 95% for NV, 85% for AZ, and 40% for NC.
Do we figure that GA is settled yet, what with those 8000 military ballots? I know the military weren't polled breaking so much for Trump this time, but I wonder if there is still the possibility of some reverse ferret value here?
Indeed, the exit poll shows those who had served in the military voted 52% Trump 45% Biden while those who had not served in the military voted 52% Biden and 46% Trump
Per RCS's answer, I guess it depends somewhat on the make up of Georgia's military contingent, by race, service and rank, and treating them as a simple lump of generic military may not give the full picture.
Do we figure that GA is settled yet, what with those 8000 military ballots? I know the military weren't polled breaking so much for Trump this time, but I wonder if there is still the possibility of some reverse ferret value here?
Georgia military went for Clinton in 2016, so I suspect they'll go for Biden this time around.
THAT SAID: I doubt the State will be called until after those are received and tabulated.
Georgia official on fox saying might not certify by end of November. (Obviously different to being called)
Do we figure that GA is settled yet, what with those 8000 military ballots? I know the military weren't polled breaking so much for Trump this time, but I wonder if there is still the possibility of some reverse ferret value here?
Indeed, the exit poll shows those who had served in the military voted 52% Trump 45% Biden while those who had not served in the military voted 52% Biden and 46% Trump
"Had served" is not the same as "is serving". They'll be mostly a heck of a lot younger for a start. And far less male. Wonder how that figure breaks down for volunteers/conscripted?
by-election in Aberdeen held yesterday. Kincorth / Nigg / Cove ward
SNP 1661 (47.4%, +6.7) Con 709 (20.2%, -1.3) Lab 429 (12.2%, -5.3) Ind 367 (10.5%, -0.4) Lib Dem 128 (3.6%, -1.6) Greens 58 (1.7%, +1.7) Ind 92 (2.6%) Ind 31 (0.9%) Libertarian -16 (0.5%) Ind 16 (0.5%)
SNP hold.
THanks for that. On checking, I find the election is caused by Stephen Flynn becoiming a SNP MP for Aberdeen South in place of Ross Thomson the Tory. Mr Flynn was top of the slate at the previous cooncil election so we are comparfing like with like (sometimes a problem with interpreting by-elections in those multimember Scoittish local cooncil elections, of course).
Doesn't promise much for the Scottish Tory fightback - fishing area, too - and still less for SLAB, their local Unionist Alliance partners on the council and the supposed penal battalions for the Union over the next year or so. Still less any tactical voting from Tory to Labour, though that's hardly to be expected here when the Tory was No. 2.
Aberdeen South has an SNP MP and an SNP MSP so it really just signals no change
Only had a SNP MP for less thjan a year. The NE fringe is supposed to be a Tory stroinghold. All those fisherfolk, remember.
Can we be clear. Those 8-9k potential ballots in Georgia are a) OVERSEAS and military (I.e expatriate voters) so won’t all be military and b) not actually delivered yet so we don’t know how many will actually arrive. We don’t know how many will arrive and what their composition will be. My hunch is the US military is pretty organised in getting those ballots back to the states so I’m guessing most outstanding ballots are from expatriates. That is just a guess.
Formally, not yet. Someone has to ask for one. And can only do so after the first count has been certified. GA has said this may not be until the end of November. They’re not in a hurry. Doubtless they hope that by then, no-one will think it worth asking for.
National calculated R from the ONS data is 0.9-1.1 depending on the region.
I finally feel comfortable in saying the nation has turned a corner wrt getting the virus under control, well it did so two weeks ago and we're seeing the data for it now. Next week we should see further drops in the R and hopefully at or below 1 everywhere.
Comments
https://twitter.com/haveigotnews/status/1324730829294039040
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-biden-election-results-11-06-20/h_889fce55a5a7a6456447d6a520156e65
If assume 160,000 in total, and give them 3:1 to Biden, that increases his lead to just under 100,000 votes.
That's not going to be overturned.
1.05 is stonking value.
45 seconds ago
Biden campaign turns up the heat
Biden campaign spokesman Andrew Bates: "As we said on July 19th, the American people will decide this election. And the United States government is perfectly capable of escorting trespassers out of the White House.”
Let me know if there was no attachment.
Looking at it in some more detail - much of it is too young but some nice wines from some drinking years 2000, 2003, 2004. I'll pm you my contact there if you're interested although I'm sure you have your own routes to such wines.
I'm glad I don't pay a licence fee.
I mean, I could be wrong, but the last votes to count will be the late arriving postals (should be for him), and the provisionals (which will be more mixed) and some on the day drop offs (maybe favour Trump).
So doesn't he just put up a few token lawsuits and keep the rest of the money? Jill Stein raised a fair bit in 2016 for recounts that never happened and she wasn't even the runner-up.
SNP 1661 (47.4%, +6.7)
Con 709 (20.2%, -1.3)
Lab 429 (12.2%, -5.3)
Ind 367 (10.5%, -0.4)
Lib Dem 128 (3.6%, -1.6)
Greens 58 (1.7%, +1.7)
Ind 92 (2.6%)
Ind 31 (0.9%)
Libertarian -16 (0.5%)
Ind 16 (0.5%)
SNP hold.
When they go low, we go high and at all. Plus its a volatile situation, the big baby in the white house is already pouring enough oil on the fire without other provoking reactions.
I dont have any evidence of fraud in PA
But still shouting ITS NOT FAIR
I flicked over last night just to see – lasted about two minutes despairing at the drivel they were putting out.
If not one else has been counting today then there's 100k plus left to count. But I don't think we can actually say how many are left.
https://twitter.com/DesmondSwayne/status/1324719427556941825?s=20
Which Network has called it?
https://mashable.com/article/the-count-sesame-street-election-memes/?europe=true
Just had one. Some energy efficiency boiler thing.
Mr Ed - Republicans genuinely believe there has been fraud
RCS - Mail in fraud could be checked easily via anaylsis, why not check it if you believe it
Mr Ed - Republicans still believe in it
RCS - Its not a genuine belief
What I think rcs is missing is that Trump Republicans are not swayed by rational analysis at all, but by beliefs (which is the word they use). It is a religious movement built wholly on emotion and then shaping the world to those emotions, not a rational analytical one that seeks to see how the world actually is.
In Trump Republican minds it genuinely isnt fair, just as in the mind of some extremist Muslims someone drawing a cartoon causes great offence.
https://www.cinemablend.com/television/2558360/the-mandalorian-featured-baby-yodas-grossest-moments-yet-in-the-passenger-but-what-does-it-all-mean
Although the overall call now looks right (just, touchwood), if any punters here who took note then lost out by betting on the scale of Biden's win, I offer an unreserved apology.
Having gone to bed a few hours later convinced that Biden was then on course to lose, it was very pleasant to wake up on Thursday morning to the growing realisation that Biden might after all still be in with a chance, given that Biden was ahead in AZ and NE-2 plus the fact that he was a lot closer by then in WI and MI. The reverse of the experience of 20 years earlier, after going to bed at a point where Florida had been called for Gore by the networks.
Probably not, but the Senate race *might* be interesting.
Confirming GA expects a full recount.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-manchester-54841278
£11k for some temporary wire fencing, they have been had.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls-president.html
Doesn't promise much for the Scottish Tory fightback - fishing area, too - and still less for SLAB, their local Unionist Alliance partners on the council and the supposed penal battalions for the Union over the next year or so. Still less any tactical voting from Tory to Labour, though that's hardly to be expected here when the Tory was No. 2.
Over-analysing the data on numbers of mail-in votes and their return is the biggest single mistake PB’ers have made in this election.
No real sign yet of any slow down in new cases in Wales.
THAT SAID: I doubt the State will be called until after those are received and tabulated.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1324733182768521216
https://mobile.twitter.com/jimrutenberg/status/1324720338853388288?s=20
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/06/upshot/election-update-biden-pennsylvania.html
Essentially he seems to think about 70,000 once the absentee ballots are counted, or possibly as much as 100,000 because much of the outstanding vote is from Philadelphia and Allegheny Counties. He thinks there might be a legal challenge to those received after election day, but there aren't more than 30,000 of those. And the provisional ballots normally favour the Democrats but are hard to predict this time.
It is possible that the recount changes things, after all there was the whole county where votes were the wrong size and had to be manually recreated. BUT I'd reckon it's less than a 5% chance.
As it stands, Biden is 99.9% for PA, 98% for GA, 95% for NV, 85% for AZ, and 40% for NC.
They'll be mostly a heck of a lot younger for a start. And far less male.
Wonder how that figure breaks down for volunteers/conscripted?
I finally feel comfortable in saying the nation has turned a corner wrt getting the virus under control, well it did so two weeks ago and we're seeing the data for it now. Next week we should see further drops in the R and hopefully at or below 1 everywhere.
https://www.twitter.com/AOC/status/1324696915196416000