Some good points, but the "half-wits with finance degrees who run everything" , and don't care about the opioid crisis in post-industrial towns, are the exact fruit of the New Right and Reaganism, not the east and west coast "liberal elite" that Fox so professes to despise. In fact the same Reaganite-populist alliance, tied to Wall St, gave birth to Fox News and talk radio. America's cultural amnesia and confusion is truly appalling.
Note that China appears to have been prompter than this in sharing data...
/twitter.com/_b_meyer/status/1324687427332702208
With all the other news, the potentially huge news out of Denmark isn't getting that much coverage. We could literally be stuck in the current loop for entity.
I read through the thread there and the assessment in Derek Lowe’s blog. The TLDR is that “this is potentially an issue but we don’t know how big, so we’re going to stomp on it really hard and remove the animal vector that could cause more mutations”. The media seems to have taken the story a little too far. The fire alarm has been pulled because of a fire in the store room, nit because the factory floor is in flames.
More than 200 humans infected with this strain already. Remember Wuhan and the wet market...
There’s always truth in situations like this. And it is often true that the political elites bear some responsibility for what has happened. But that doesn’t excuse the demagogues/and populists (and those like Carlson who support them) who tap into the dissatisfaction, not because they actually care for these people (who they will surely disappoint) but because they see them as a route to political power. Trump isn’t the first and he won’t be the last.
Trump can't even steal an election competently, despite years to plan. Rather than spurious legal challenges after he falls behind, he could have had militia on the streets while he was leading. Thank goodness he isn't capable of strategy.
This is what I was most wrong about. I never thought that Trump would be sending direct orders to the militia, but I expected that the protests we've seen at the count centres would have been armed and stormed them without direct orders.
It's not happened.
Trump was leading in the vote counts in enough states to get to 270 on Wednesday. In my nightmare scenario the counts would have been stopped by force and declared by state legislatures on the basis of the partial counts.
It's quite a robust democracy really isn't it, whatever Trump has tried? I love the way officials, even courts, have ignored him almost completely during the counting.
The system has faults but there are a lot of checks and balances in place to protect freedom.
Might have only taken fox news declaring states for trump for it to have been very different
Casino Royale, I've taken up that tip just because the odds are good. Probably a loss but I've got some leverage because of the other night so was worth a final fling.
You can still get 1/16 on Biden in Georgia by the way.
CNN still have it as 253 which is really silly. 306+ is pretty much nailed on now.
Have Fox called it yet? I wonder who will call it first?
Whoever calls it first will get a shitstorm of abuse from the President from here to January. And probably beyond, when he sets up his competing media show.
They don't seem to bother prosecuting loads of crimes as it is, so might as well get them off the books.
The only small businesses I would consider viable in urban Oregon are (1) coffee-and-weed cafe for the Antifa hipsters and (2) gun store for everyone else.
Of intentional significance, no. But it's possible someone didn't want to damage the fur industry, and was just stupid.
How significant these other strains might be is an open question.
This is from the government statement: Preliminary studies suggest that this virus from cluster 5 exhibits decreased susceptibility to antibodies from more individuals with past infection compared to non-mutated virus. This has been demonstrated in laboratory experiments, where it is seen that the particular mink virus is not inhibited to the same degree by antibodies from humans who have been infected with SARS-CoV compared to other non-mutated SARS-CoV-2 viruses. Studies are currently underway that will further uncover the issue. This finding is of concern as it could potentially have an impact on the future of a future COVID-19 vaccine against infection with this and other new mink variants. It may also pose a risk of impaired immunity to these following COVID-19 infection. It is important both for the individual and for the possibility of reinfections with mutants...
Ha. Just looked at my Betfair account (I've been on Spreadex mainly) and had totally forgotten I bet on Biden for 300-329 Electoral College votes at 6/1
Oh that's sweet
Edit had also totally forgotten that I bet the Dems to win Pennsylvania at 1/3.
Edit 2 My Jon Ossoff bets will run until January. Not too confident on those but who knows. I got on at 2/1 so was worth it.
Note that China appears to have been prompter than this in sharing data...
/twitter.com/_b_meyer/status/1324687427332702208
With all the other news, the potentially huge news out of Denmark isn't getting that much coverage. We could literally be stuck in the current loop for entity.
I read through the thread there and the assessment in Derek Lowe’s blog. The TLDR is that “this is potentially an issue but we don’t know how big, so we’re going to stomp on it really hard and remove the animal vector that could cause more mutations”. The media seems to have taken the story a little too far. The fire alarm has been pulled because of a fire in the store room, nit because the factory floor is in flames.
More than 200 humans infected with this strain already. Remember Wuhan and the wet market...
If I understand correctly the main concern is not that this strain is more infectious or more virulent, but that it has several mutations in the spike region which might impair the effectiveness of a vaccine.
But there has been no scientific publication, and it's a bit difficult to see what evidence there can be about the effectiveness of a vaccine, considering we don't know that for the versions of the virus that are already in circulation.
@Malmesbury do you have the ONS plot for previous releases? I vaguely recall them all looking like this, with a plateauing in the latest bunch of numbers that is revised in the subsequent one.
They don't seem to bother prosecuting loads of crimes as it is, so might as well get them off the books.
The only small businesses I would consider viable in urban Oregon are (1) coffee-and-weed cafe for the Antifa hipsters and (2) gun store for everyone else.
I have spent loads of time in Portland, and it used to be a nice relaxed quirky kinda of place. Now shit like this happens every night and the authorities do bugger all...its all the white supremacists fault or something according to the idiot mayor..and in the upcoming election the choice is him or a far more extremist.candidate.
Some good points, but the "half-wits with finance degrees who run everything" , and don't care about the opioid crisis in post-industrial towns, are the exact fruit of the New Right and Reaganism, not the east and west coast "liberal elite" that Fox so professes to despise. In fact the same Reaganite-populist alliance, tied to Wall St, gave birth to Fox News and talk radio. America's cultural amnesia and confusion is truly appalling.
So you think there were no dodgy corporations who risked public safety for profit before Reagan? Really?
Ha. Just looked at my Betfair account (I've been on Spreadex mainly) and had totally forgotten I bet on Biden for 300-329 Electoral College votes at 6/1
Oh that's sweet
Edit had also totally forgotten that I bet the Dems to win Pennsylvania at 1/3.
Edit 2 My Jon Ossoff bets will run until January. Not too confident on those but who knows. I got on at 2/1 so was worth it.
Trump can't even steal an election competently, despite years to plan. Rather than spurious legal challenges after he falls behind, he could have had militia on the streets while he was leading. Thank goodness he isn't capable of strategy.
Some good points, but the "half-wits with finance degrees who run everything" , and don't care about the opioid crisis in post-industrial towns, are the exact fruit of the New Right and Reaganism, not the east and west coast "liberal elite" that Fox so professes to despise. In fact the same Reaganite-populist alliance, tied to Wall St, gave birth to Fox News and talk radio. America's cultural amnesia and confusion is truly appalling.
So you think there were no dodgy corporations who risked public safety for profit before Reagan? Really?
Not at all ; but post-Reagan , finance-capitalism was in the ascendant, and as in Britain, the "people with finance degrees" , that Carlsson mentions, had far more leverage over every level of society.
Some good points, but the "half-wits with finance degrees who run everything" , and don't care about the opioid crisis in post-industrial towns, are the exact fruit of the New Right and Reaganism, not the east and west coast "liberal elite" that Fox so professes to despise. In fact the same Reaganite-populist alliance, tied to Wall St, gave birth to Fox News and talk radio. America's cultural amnesia and confusion is truly appalling.
So you think there were no dodgy corporations who risked public safety for profit before Reagan? Really?
What a silly thing to say, of course there were! The Boston Treacle Disaster proved that. The difference is that new safety measures were put in place to prevent reoccurrence. Now, because of the hooting FreE mArKeT idiots in the GOP (and Tory party) we can’t even sort out flammable cladding on buildings or chemical pollution on the Mississippi River. That pisses off a lot of people.
Of intentional significance, no. But it's possible someone didn't want to damage the fur industry, and was just stupid.
How significant these other strains might be is an open question.
This is from the government statement: Preliminary studies suggest that this virus from cluster 5 exhibits decreased susceptibility to antibodies from more individuals with past infection compared to non-mutated virus. This has been demonstrated in laboratory experiments, where it is seen that the particular mink virus is not inhibited to the same degree by antibodies from humans who have been infected with SARS-CoV compared to other non-mutated SARS-CoV-2 viruses. Studies are currently underway that will further uncover the issue. This finding is of concern as it could potentially have an impact on the future of a future COVID-19 vaccine against infection with this and other new mink variants. It may also pose a risk of impaired immunity to these following COVID-19 infection. It is important both for the individual and for the possibility of reinfections with mutants...
Posted earlier in this thread:
As one expert noted, this kind of story hits the scary button and hence overblown fears. There is no reason, some experts say, why virus adaptation in animal species of a virus already quite prevalent in human populations should result in a virus more adapted to humans than those strains already in humans.
As a general principle, I think that is true. But not absolutely so. The reason this virus infects a wide range of very disparate mammals, from bats to pangolins to mink to cats to humans, is that it binds to the ACE-2 receptor that is found in all these species. So, while accepting the general premise of the cited experts on viral evolution, in this case an adaptation of the virus' spike protein to make it bind more efficiently to the ACE-2 receptor of mink might well, indeed, impact the efficiency of the virus' transmission in human population. And the high density of individual minks in these farms without social distancing or specialized ventilation probably does encourage a faster rate of viral evolution than would occur in human populations:
PS And mink are the preferred animal model for other human respiratory diseases such as the flu. Indeed, Ron Fouchier did his controversial gain of function flu research on mink
CNN still have it as 253 which is really silly. 306+ is pretty much nailed on now.
Have Fox called it yet? I wonder who will call it first?
Whoever calls it first will get a shitstorm of abuse from the President from here to January. And probably beyond, when he sets up his competing media show.
Wear it as a badge of honour, guys....
Are they waiting for Betfair ? That would be an interesting constitutional innovation.
Some good points, but the "half-wits with finance degrees who run everything" , and don't care about the opioid crisis in post-industrial towns, are the exact fruit of the New Right and Reaganism, not the east and west coast "liberal elite" that Fox so professes to despise. In fact the same Reaganite-populist alliance, tied to Wall St, gave birth to Fox News and talk radio. America's cultural amnesia and confusion is truly appalling.
So you think there were no dodgy corporations who risked public safety for profit before Reagan? Really?
Not at all ; but post-Reagan finance-capitalism was in the ascendant, and as in Britain, the "people with finance degrees" , that Carlsson mentions, had far more leverage over every level of society.
And, inasmuch as that is true (which isn't much, except that more people have degrees than 50 years ago), what on earth does it have to do with Talk Radio, Fox News, or the opioid crisis?
Some good points, but the "half-wits with finance degrees who run everything" , and don't care about the opioid crisis in post-industrial towns, are the exact fruit of the New Right and Reaganism, not the east and west coast "liberal elite" that Fox so professes to despise. In fact the same Reaganite-populist alliance, tied to Wall St, gave birth to Fox News and talk radio. America's cultural amnesia and confusion is truly appalling.
So you think there were no dodgy corporations who risked public safety for profit before Reagan? Really?
Not at all ; but post-Reagan , finance-capitalism was in the ascendant, and as in Britain, the "people with finance degrees" , that Carlsson mentions, had far more leverage over every level of society.
@Malmesbury do you have the ONS plot for previous releases? I vaguely recall them all looking like this, with a plateauing in the latest bunch of numbers that is revised in the subsequent one.
CNN still have it as 253 which is really silly. 306+ is pretty much nailed on now.
Have Fox called it yet? I wonder who will call it first?
Whoever calls it first will get a shitstorm of abuse from the President from here to January. And probably beyond, when he sets up his competing media show.
Let's not celebrate R flattening too quickly. We were at a level of hospital strain and southern growth where overcorrection was the responsible choice. It has to be noted as well that the L3 success in Liverpool had overlapped somewhat with half-term.
I think that younger kids were less susceptible has borne out somewhat, even given the huge contact budget we've given them, positivity rate in junior schools has only risen to the average across all age groups, whilst secondaries are higher. We need to get 3 weeks into term to be sure this is not a hiatus, which is possible even with lockdown. (though I don't think the likeliest outcome).
As for the circuit breaker: a 2 week half term for kids would have been useful, and we could have started a lockdown a little earlier, but I believe 4 weeks with an end date in early December, vaccine or no, is not a bad call at the conclusion - if it suppresses, infections should be going down well into mid December and the uptick before Christmas is likely only to be small at that stage. Morale wise - Brexit permitting - we might be in an OK place for something of a Christmas. If we pay by a further round of restriction in January (perhaps as we see a vaccine roll out gaining a little scale), that might not be too bad.
Basically, I think the calls made this month were a 6 and two threes - circuit break would have kicked in and stopped things a little more a little earlier but might have needed a repeat, the current lockdown is nicely timed for a single hit before Christmas, a quite human decision.
Early days, but let's hope the Danish variants don't throw a spanner in the works.
Some good points, but the "half-wits with finance degrees who run everything" , and don't care about the opioid crisis in post-industrial towns, are the exact fruit of the New Right and Reaganism, not the east and west coast "liberal elite" that Fox so professes to despise. In fact the same Reaganite-populist alliance, tied to Wall St, gave birth to Fox News and talk radio. America's cultural amnesia and confusion is truly appalling.
So you think there were no dodgy corporations who risked public safety for profit before Reagan? Really?
Not at all ; but post-Reagan finance-capitalism was in the ascendant, and as in Britain, the "people with finance degrees" , that Carlsson mentions, had far more leverage over every level of society.
And, inasmuch as that is true (which isn't much, except that more people have degrees than 50 years ago), what on earth does it have to do with Talk Radio, Fox News, or the opioid crisis?
Without wanting to be rude, as I've been developing the point, it should be fairly obvious by now ; Reagan built a new conservative coalition, which included two major centres : Wall St and the advocates of financial deregulation and fiscal conservatism on the one hand, and religious-conservatives and national-populists, often locally minded, on the other.
Murdoch and some others, including conservative talk radio, were the main cheerleaders for this new coalition and manifesto in the media. What Carlsson is decrying is not only baked into modern American conservatism, but something that his part of the media landscape is specifically historically linked to, too.
Important fact for the Georgia run off election(s)
Third wave of Covid has started in Georgia. The election campaign took place as deaths and cases were falling. The run off elections will take place with them rising.
Of intentional significance, no. But it's possible someone didn't want to damage the fur industry, and was just stupid.
How significant these other strains might be is an open question.
This is from the government statement: Preliminary studies suggest that this virus from cluster 5 exhibits decreased susceptibility to antibodies from more individuals with past infection compared to non-mutated virus. This has been demonstrated in laboratory experiments, where it is seen that the particular mink virus is not inhibited to the same degree by antibodies from humans who have been infected with SARS-CoV compared to other non-mutated SARS-CoV-2 viruses. Studies are currently underway that will further uncover the issue. This finding is of concern as it could potentially have an impact on the future of a future COVID-19 vaccine against infection with this and other new mink variants. It may also pose a risk of impaired immunity to these following COVID-19 infection. It is important both for the individual and for the possibility of reinfections with mutants...
Posted earlier in this thread:
As one expert noted, this kind of story hits the scary button and hence overblown fears. There is no reason, some experts say, why virus adaptation in animal species of a virus already quite prevalent in human populations should result in a virus more adapted to humans than those strains already in humans.
As a general principle, I think that is true. But not absolutely so. The reason this virus infects a wide range of very disparate mammals, from bats to pangolins to mink to cats to humans, is that it binds to the ACE-2 receptor that is found in all these species. So, while accepting the general premise of the cited experts on viral evolution, in this case an adaptation of the virus' spike protein to make it bind more efficiently to the ACE-2 receptor of mink might well, indeed, impact the efficiency of the virus' transmission in human population. And the high density of individual minks in these farms without social distancing or specialized ventilation probably does encourage a faster rate of viral evolution than would occur in human populations:
PS And mink are the preferred animal model for other human respiratory diseases such as the flu. Indeed, Ron Fouchier did his controversial gain of function flu research on mink
I don't think the major concern is that it's better adapted to humans, but rather that some of the mutations in the spike protein might have consequences for existing human immunity (or that from vaccines in development). The evidence is sketchy, though, as you say.
Not many of them have the energy to do much at all (some of course do). Some are super active, but to be POTUS? Seems a big ask. Although I accept that to be there, Biden was self-selecting in terms of health, fitness, etc.
Edit: I suppose HMQ and the DoE showed that people can be effective up to a great age.
What do you reckon Big G; should you & I make a joint offer!
Ahh, the old "the dead have voted" schtick. The oldest moan in the book.
From that thread it sounds like the US is stricter at weeding out the votes of people who've died between mailing in a ballot and election day than the UK is. In fact I don't think British EROs would have any way to find out. Here in the US the Social Security Administration maintains a master "death index" which is a public record, although in practice I do wonder how fast it gets updated for localities to use for voter vitality checking!
So those 35,000 votes in Allegheny in PA wont be declared til tomorrow or sunday, lets hope the lead for Biden state wide is big enough for this to be called! 2 more days of waiting would kill me!!
Yep, Boris will agree to accept the EU's terms on state aid and kick fishing talks into the long grass now Biden is almost certain of victory, No Deal is dead with Trump's defeat, he may even pull the internal markets bill to keep open the possibility of a FTA with a Biden administration
Yep, Boris will agree to accept the EU's terms on state aid and kick fishing talks into the long grass now Biden is almost certain of victory, No Deal is dead with Trump's defeat, he may even pull the internal markets bill to keep open the possibility of a FTA with a Biden administration
Yes and Trump will be next President because Trafalgar . . .
Will you ever cool down your absolute certainty that you know what's happening next?
Of intentional significance, no. But it's possible someone didn't want to damage the fur industry, and was just stupid.
How significant these other strains might be is an open question.
This is from the government statement: Preliminary studies suggest that this virus from cluster 5 exhibits decreased susceptibility to antibodies from more individuals with past infection compared to non-mutated virus. This has been demonstrated in laboratory experiments, where it is seen that the particular mink virus is not inhibited to the same degree by antibodies from humans who have been infected with SARS-CoV compared to other non-mutated SARS-CoV-2 viruses. Studies are currently underway that will further uncover the issue. This finding is of concern as it could potentially have an impact on the future of a future COVID-19 vaccine against infection with this and other new mink variants. It may also pose a risk of impaired immunity to these following COVID-19 infection. It is important both for the individual and for the possibility of reinfections with mutants...
Posted earlier in this thread:
As one expert noted, this kind of story hits the scary button and hence overblown fears. There is no reason, some experts say, why virus adaptation in animal species of a virus already quite prevalent in human populations should result in a virus more adapted to humans than those strains already in humans.
As a general principle, I think that is true. But not absolutely so. The reason this virus infects a wide range of very disparate mammals, from bats to pangolins to mink to cats to humans, is that it binds to the ACE-2 receptor that is found in all these species. So, while accepting the general premise of the cited experts on viral evolution, in this case an adaptation of the virus' spike protein to make it bind more efficiently to the ACE-2 receptor of mink might well, indeed, impact the efficiency of the virus' transmission in human population. And the high density of individual minks in these farms without social distancing or specialized ventilation probably does encourage a faster rate of viral evolution than would occur in human populations:
PS And mink are the preferred animal model for other human respiratory diseases such as the flu. Indeed, Ron Fouchier did his controversial gain of function flu research on mink
I don't think the major concern is that it's better adapted to humans, but rather that some of the mutations in the spike protein might have consequences for existing human immunity (or that from vaccines in development). The evidence is sketchy, though, as you say.
Point taken. I just sparked on the evolutionary aspects - evolutionary selection for viruses is not on how pathogenic they are, but on transmissibility - the pathogenicity is merely a bi-product (and unhelpful to the virus at that).
In that regard, I guess more pathogenic strains are more likely to evolve in high density animal reservoirs (like the mink) particularly if they are not more pathogenic to the animal in question. And evolution of all aspects, including the antigenicity of the spike protein, is likely to happen in these types of animal reservoirs faster than in a human population taken measures to bring down R.
Some good points, but the "half-wits with finance degrees who run everything" , and don't care about the opioid crisis in post-industrial towns, are the exact fruit of the New Right and Reaganism, not the east and west coast "liberal elite" that Fox so professes to despise. In fact the same Reaganite-populist alliance, tied to Wall St, gave birth to Fox News and talk radio. America's cultural amnesia and confusion is truly appalling.
So you think there were no dodgy corporations who risked public safety for profit before Reagan? Really?
Not at all ; but post-Reagan finance-capitalism was in the ascendant, and as in Britain, the "people with finance degrees" , that Carlsson mentions, had far more leverage over every level of society.
And, inasmuch as that is true (which isn't much, except that more people have degrees than 50 years ago), what on earth does it have to do with Talk Radio, Fox News, or the opioid crisis?
Without wanting to be rude, as I've been developing the point, it should be fairly obvious by now ; Reagan built a new conservative coalition, which included two major centres : Wall St and the advocates of financial deregulation and fiscal conservatism on the one hand, and religious-conservatives and national-populists, often locally minded, on the other.
Murdoch and some others, including conservative talk radio, were the main cheerleaders for this new coalition and manifesto in the media. What Carlsson is decrying is not only baked into modern American conservatism, but something that his part of the media landscape is specifically historically linked to, too.
That's a rather selective account of both 49-state-winning Reagan and Obama-supporting Murdoch.
Let's not celebrate R flattening too quickly. We were at a level of hospital strain and southern growth where overcorrection was the responsible choice. It has to be noted as well that the L3 success in Liverpool had overlapped somewhat with half-term.
I think that younger kids were less susceptible has borne out somewhat, even given the huge contact budget we've given them, positivity rate in junior schools has only risen to the average across all age groups, whilst secondaries are higher. We need to get 3 weeks into term to be sure this is not a hiatus, which is possible even with lockdown. (though I don't think the likeliest outcome).
As for the circuit breaker: a 2 week half term for kids would have been useful, and we could have started a lockdown a little earlier, but I believe 4 weeks with an end date in early December, vaccine or no, is not a bad call at the conclusion - if it suppresses, infections should be going down well into mid December and the uptick before Christmas is likely only to be small at that stage. Morale wise - Brexit permitting - we might be in an OK place for something of a Christmas. If we pay by a further round of restriction in January (perhaps as we see a vaccine roll out gaining a little scale), that might not be too bad.
Basically, I think the calls made this month were a 6 and two threes - circuit break would have kicked in and stopped things a little more a little earlier but might have needed a repeat, the current lockdown is nicely timed for a single hit before Christmas, a quite human decision.
Early days, but let's hope the Danish variants don't throw a spanner in the works.
Yep, Boris will agree to accept the EU's terms on state aid and kick fishing talks into the long grass now Biden is almost certain of victory, No Deal is dead with Trump's defeat, he may even pull the internal markets bill to keep open the possibility of a FTA with a Biden administration
Yes and Trump will be next President because Trafalgar . . .
Will you ever cool down your absolute certainty that you know what's happening next?
My final forecast was 269 269.
We know full well Boris was waiting for the US election results to decide whether to risk No Deal which he could only ever do with a Trump re election as Trump had not openly opposed the Internal Markets Bill and had indeed openly pushed the UK to go to No Deal Brexit.
With a Biden win Boris will agree to accept the EU's terms on state aid as he cannot afford no trade deal with the US and the EU and also as he will either have to dilute the impact of the Internal Markets Bill with an EU FTA or withdraw it completely to have any prospect of a trade deal with a Biden and Pelosi led US.
As Sir Ivan Rogers former UK ambassador to the EU has said Rogers said: “Several very senior sources in capitals have told me they believe Johnson will await clarity on the presidential election result before finally deciding whether to jump to ‘no deal’ with the EU, or to conclude that this is just too risky with Biden heading for the White House, and hence live with some highly suboptimal (for Johnson) skinny free-trade agreement.”
Of intentional significance, no. But it's possible someone didn't want to damage the fur industry, and was just stupid.
How significant these other strains might be is an open question.
This is from the government statement: Preliminary studies suggest that this virus from cluster 5 exhibits decreased susceptibility to antibodies from more individuals with past infection compared to non-mutated virus. This has been demonstrated in laboratory experiments, where it is seen that the particular mink virus is not inhibited to the same degree by antibodies from humans who have been infected with SARS-CoV compared to other non-mutated SARS-CoV-2 viruses. Studies are currently underway that will further uncover the issue. This finding is of concern as it could potentially have an impact on the future of a future COVID-19 vaccine against infection with this and other new mink variants. It may also pose a risk of impaired immunity to these following COVID-19 infection. It is important both for the individual and for the possibility of reinfections with mutants...
Posted earlier in this thread:
As one expert noted, this kind of story hits the scary button and hence overblown fears. There is no reason, some experts say, why virus adaptation in animal species of a virus already quite prevalent in human populations should result in a virus more adapted to humans than those strains already in humans.
As a general principle, I think that is true. But not absolutely so. The reason this virus infects a wide range of very disparate mammals, from bats to pangolins to mink to cats to humans, is that it binds to the ACE-2 receptor that is found in all these species. So, while accepting the general premise of the cited experts on viral evolution, in this case an adaptation of the virus' spike protein to make it bind more efficiently to the ACE-2 receptor of mink might well, indeed, impact the efficiency of the virus' transmission in human population. And the high density of individual minks in these farms without social distancing or specialized ventilation probably does encourage a faster rate of viral evolution than would occur in human populations:
PS And mink are the preferred animal model for other human respiratory diseases such as the flu. Indeed, Ron Fouchier did his controversial gain of function flu research on mink
I don't think the major concern is that it's better adapted to humans, but rather that some of the mutations in the spike protein might have consequences for existing human immunity (or that from vaccines in development). The evidence is sketchy, though, as you say.
Point taken. I just sparked on the evolutionary aspects - evolutionary selection for viruses is not on how pathogenic they are, but on transmissibility - the pathogenicity is merely a bi-product (and unhelpful to the virus at that).
In that regard, I guess more pathogenic strains are more likely to evolve in high density animal reservoirs (like the mink) particularly if they are not more pathogenic to the animal in question. And evolution of all aspects, including the antigenicity of the spike protein, is likely to happen in these types of animal reservoirs faster than in a human population taken measures to bring down R.
Ahh, the old "the dead have voted" schtick. The oldest moan in the book.
From that thread it sounds like the US is stricter at weeding out the votes of people who've died between mailing in a ballot and election day than the UK is. In fact I don't think British EROs would have any way to find out. Here in the US the Social Security Administration maintains a master "death index" which is a public record, although in practice I do wonder how fast it gets updated for localities to use for voter vitality checking!
I might be wrong, but I was of the impression that the minor technicality of death before election day doesn't disqualify you from voting in the UK, provided you remember to send in your postal vote beforehand.
Yep, Boris will agree to accept the EU's terms on state aid and kick fishing talks into the long grass now Biden is almost certain of victory, No Deal is dead with Trump's defeat, he may even pull the internal markets bill to keep open the possibility of a FTA with a Biden administration
Some good points, but the "half-wits with finance degrees who run everything" , and don't care about the opioid crisis in post-industrial towns, are the exact fruit of the New Right and Reaganism, not the east and west coast "liberal elite" that Fox so professes to despise. In fact the same Reaganite-populist alliance, tied to Wall St, gave birth to Fox News and talk radio. America's cultural amnesia and confusion is truly appalling.
So you think there were no dodgy corporations who risked public safety for profit before Reagan? Really?
Not at all ; but post-Reagan finance-capitalism was in the ascendant, and as in Britain, the "people with finance degrees" , that Carlsson mentions, had far more leverage over every level of society.
And, inasmuch as that is true (which isn't much, except that more people have degrees than 50 years ago), what on earth does it have to do with Talk Radio, Fox News, or the opioid crisis?
Without wanting to be rude, as I've been developing the point, it should be fairly obvious by now ; Reagan built a new conservative coalition, which included two major centres : Wall St and the advocates of financial deregulation and fiscal conservatism on the one hand, and religious-conservatives and national-populists, often locally minded, on the other.
Murdoch and some others, including conservative talk radio, were the main cheerleaders for this new coalition and manifesto in the media. What Carlsson is decrying is not only baked into modern American conservatism, but something that his part of the media landscape is specifically historically linked to, too.
That's a rather selective account of both 49-state-winning Reagan and Obama-supporting Murdoch.
Clinton, Blair and Obama were all to a certain extent the fruit of Reaganism and Thatcherism, though. Murdoch did not support Carter, Ford or Callaghan ; his aim was to assist the end the postwar consensus, and assist the rise both of deregulated and transnational finance capitalism and local conservative populism.
CNN seem to be warming up towards a declaration here.
Decision Desk guy on live now.
Someone needs to go first. They have been saying literally for *days* on CNN that Biden will carry off the remaining PA vote tally. So get on with it guys!
Or is there going to be a Tapper / Cooper / Blitzer fight offstage as to who gets to announce it...
I'd like John King to strike the final blow!!
11 out of 10 to John King
0 out of 10 for "He looks like an Obese Turtle on his back who knows its over" bloke whatever his name is.
Anderson Cooper. By all accounts a good anchorman
I'm sure he is, but he didn't need to go there - there would be plenty of others who would do that for him.
Yep, Boris will agree to accept the EU's terms on state aid and kick fishing talks into the long grass now Biden is almost certain of victory, No Deal is dead with Trump's defeat, he may even pull the internal markets bill to keep open the possibility of a FTA with a Biden administration
Yes and Trump will be next President because Trafalgar . . .
Will you ever cool down your absolute certainty that you know what's happening next?
My final forecast was 269 269.
We know full well Boris was waiting for the US election results to decide whether to risk No Deal which he could only ever do with a Trump re election as Trump had not openly opposed the Internal Markets Bill and had indeed openly pushed the UK to go to No Deal Brexit.
With a Biden win Boris will agree to accept the EU's terms on state aid as he cannot afford no trade deal with the US and the EU and also as he will either have to dilute the impact of the Internal Markets Bill with an EU FTA or withdraw it completely to have any prospect of a trade deal with a Biden and Pelosi led US.
As Sir Ivan Rogers former UK ambassador to the EU has said Rogers said: “Several very senior sources in capitals have told me they believe Johnson will await clarity on the presidential election result before finally deciding whether to jump to ‘no deal’ with the EU, or to conclude that this is just too risky with Biden heading for the White House, and hence live with some highly suboptimal (for Johnson) skinny free-trade agreement.”
The US result is not only a defeat for Trump but also for his key British backer Farage and No Deal, anti lockdown Brexiteers in the UK
I'm surprised you've not fallen for QAnon yet. Just because you've read something somewhere doesn't make it right.
The US Presidential Election was never more than tangential to this, it was always going to require a political compromise for the big outstanding issues. A meeting between Johnson and Von Der Leyen to see if they can reach a compromise was going to be required either way.
The question that's not been answered is whether a compromise is achievable. I think so. But if people arrogantly believe that a Biden victory means the EU don't need to compromise that risks making a No Deal Brexit more likely not less. Both parties need to compromise, it is as simple as that.
It's dangerous to draw exact parallels but I think it's a warning to the Conservatives: this is the fate that awaits them in GE2024 if they don't change course, which means ditching Boris.
It's important to have the right leader in the moment - I don't think Boris could have done what Cameron did in 2010 and 2015, and I don't think Cameron could have done what Boris did in 2019 - but I'm not sure parties think that far ahead, as it would be difficult to know who would be right, even if it is clear who is wrong. Hence why it took so long to remove May.
Some good points, but the "half-wits with finance degrees who run everything" , and don't care about the opioid crisis in post-industrial towns, are the exact fruit of the New Right and Reaganism, not the east and west coast "liberal elite" that Fox so professes to despise. In fact the same Reaganite-populist alliance, tied to Wall St, gave birth to Fox News and talk radio. America's cultural amnesia and confusion is truly appalling.
It also undermines Trump's claim to be a populist. He campaigns as one, but once in office, what has he done for these people? He gave eye-watering tax cuts to their bosses and the "half-wits with finance degrees" while trying to gut Obamacare for the people at his rallies.
Some good points, but the "half-wits with finance degrees who run everything" , and don't care about the opioid crisis in post-industrial towns, are the exact fruit of the New Right and Reaganism, not the east and west coast "liberal elite" that Fox so professes to despise. In fact the same Reaganite-populist alliance, tied to Wall St, gave birth to Fox News and talk radio. America's cultural amnesia and confusion is truly appalling.
It also undermines Trump's claim to be a populist. He campaigns as one, but once in office, what has he done for these people? He gave eye-watering tax cuts to their bosses and the "half-wits with finance degrees" while trying to gut Obamacare for the people at his rallies.
Ahh, the old "the dead have voted" schtick. The oldest moan in the book.
One thing we forget over here is the extent to which suspicious practices happen in the States and how they have seriously impacted elections. The result in one Presidential election (1960) was very likely determined by voter fraud (Mayor Daley adding the votes in Cook County) and it's being a problem at various levels. Ironically, one of the major reasons why Hillary could not get a recount in Michigan in 2016 was that state law forbids any precinct being included in the recount where the turnout exceeds the number of registered voters, which was exactly the situation in many of Detroit's precincts (the explanation given at the time was that many of the machines broke down on election day and the scanners, where votes were fed into, may have mistakenly counted ballots twice).
So before everyone rushes off and says that these are all nut jobs who can't accept defeat, it's worthwhile putting into in the context of what has gone on previously.
And, no, that is not me trying to say "it's rigged!" but it is me trying to explain why many of the establishment Republican politicians are not calling out Trump on this and why, generally so far, the Republican establishment seem behind him.
It's also why this whole saga is likely to drag out.
Yep, Boris will agree to accept the EU's terms on state aid and kick fishing talks into the long grass now Biden is almost certain of victory, No Deal is dead with Trump's defeat, he may even pull the internal markets bill to keep open the possibility of a FTA with a Biden administration
Yes and Trump will be next President because Trafalgar . . .
Will you ever cool down your absolute certainty that you know what's happening next?
My final forecast was 269 269.
We know full well Boris was waiting for the US election results to decide whether to risk No Deal which he could only ever do with a Trump re election as Trump had not openly opposed the Internal Markets Bill and had indeed openly pushed the UK to go to No Deal Brexit.
With a Biden win Boris will agree to accept the EU's terms on state aid as he cannot afford no trade deal with the US and the EU and also as he will either have to dilute the impact of the Internal Markets Bill with an EU FTA or withdraw it completely to have any prospect of a trade deal with a Biden and Pelosi led US.
As Sir Ivan Rogers former UK ambassador to the EU has said Rogers said: “Several very senior sources in capitals have told me they believe Johnson will await clarity on the presidential election result before finally deciding whether to jump to ‘no deal’ with the EU, or to conclude that this is just too risky with Biden heading for the White House, and hence live with some highly suboptimal (for Johnson) skinny free-trade agreement.”
The US result is not only a defeat for Trump but also for his key British backer Farage and No Deal, anti lockdown Brexiteers in the UK
I'm surprised you've not fallen for QAnon yet. Just because you've read something somewhere doesn't make it right.
The US Presidential Election was never more than tangential to this, it was always going to require a political compromise for the big outstanding issues. A meeting between Johnson and Von Der Leyen to see if they can reach a compromise was going to be required either way.
The question that's not been answered is whether a compromise is achievable. I think so. But if people arrogantly believe that a Biden victory means the EU don't need to compromise that risks making a No Deal Brexit more likely not less. Both parties need to compromise, it is as simple as that.
Face it, No Deal is dead without a US trade deal in the offing as a ready made alternative, you are of course welcome to move back to Farage in his new party of Reform UK once the deal terms are agreed and that will only be at minimum with Boris accepting most of the EU terms on state aid which he will likely do by Christmas, with fishing talks still kicked into next year.
FoxLiveBlogTeam 42 seconds ago The Trump campaign has released a statement:
“This election is not over. The false projection of Joe Biden as the winner is based on results in four states that are far from final. Georgia is headed for a recount, where we are confident we will find ballots improperly harvested, and where President Trump will ultimately prevail," - Matt Morgan, Trump 2020 campaign general counsel, said.
"There were many irregularities in Pennsylvania, including having election officials prevent our volunteer legal observers from having meaningful access to vote counting locations. We prevailed in court on our challenge, but were deprived of valuable time and denied the transparency we are entitled to under state law. In Nevada, there appear to be thousands of individuals who improperly cast mail ballots. Finally, the President is on course to win Arizona outright, despite the irresponsible and erroneous ‘calling’ of the state for Biden by Fox News and the Associated Press. Biden is relying on these states for his phony claim on the White House, but once the election is final, President Trump will be re-elected.”
The man is obsessed with Fox News calling Arizona. Seriously, what's his beef?
Some good points, but the "half-wits with finance degrees who run everything" , and don't care about the opioid crisis in post-industrial towns, are the exact fruit of the New Right and Reaganism, not the east and west coast "liberal elite" that Fox so professes to despise. In fact the same Reaganite-populist alliance, tied to Wall St, gave birth to Fox News and talk radio. America's cultural amnesia and confusion is truly appalling.
So you think there were no dodgy corporations who risked public safety for profit before Reagan? Really?
Not at all ; but post-Reagan finance-capitalism was in the ascendant, and as in Britain, the "people with finance degrees" , that Carlsson mentions, had far more leverage over every level of society.
And, inasmuch as that is true (which isn't much, except that more people have degrees than 50 years ago), what on earth does it have to do with Talk Radio, Fox News, or the opioid crisis?
Without wanting to be rude, as I've been developing the point, it should be fairly obvious by now ; Reagan built a new conservative coalition, which included two major centres : Wall St and the advocates of financial deregulation and fiscal conservatism on the one hand, and religious-conservatives and national-populists, often locally minded, on the other.
Murdoch and some others, including conservative talk radio, were the main cheerleaders for this new coalition and manifesto in the media. What Carlsson is decrying is not only baked into modern American conservatism, but something that his part of the media landscape is specifically historically linked to, too.
That's a rather selective account of both 49-state-winning Reagan and Obama-supporting Murdoch.
Yep, Boris will agree to accept the EU's terms on state aid and kick fishing talks into the long grass now Biden is almost certain of victory, No Deal is dead with Trump's defeat, he may even pull the internal markets bill to keep open the possibility of a FTA with a Biden administration
Yes and Trump will be next President because Trafalgar . . .
Will you ever cool down your absolute certainty that you know what's happening next?
My final forecast was 269 269.
We know full well Boris was waiting for the US election results to decide whether to risk No Deal which he could only ever do with a Trump re election as Trump had not openly opposed the Internal Markets Bill and had indeed openly pushed the UK to go to No Deal Brexit.
With a Biden win Boris will agree to accept the EU's terms on state aid as he cannot afford no trade deal with the US and the EU and also as he will either have to dilute the impact of the Internal Markets Bill with an EU FTA or withdraw it completely to have any prospect of a trade deal with a Biden and Pelosi led US.
As Sir Ivan Rogers former UK ambassador to the EU has said Rogers said: “Several very senior sources in capitals have told me they believe Johnson will await clarity on the presidential election result before finally deciding whether to jump to ‘no deal’ with the EU, or to conclude that this is just too risky with Biden heading for the White House, and hence live with some highly suboptimal (for Johnson) skinny free-trade agreement.”
The US result is not only a defeat for Trump but also for his key British backer Farage and No Deal, anti lockdown Brexiteers in the UK
I'm surprised you've not fallen for QAnon yet. Just because you've read something somewhere doesn't make it right.
The US Presidential Election was never more than tangential to this, it was always going to require a political compromise for the big outstanding issues. A meeting between Johnson and Von Der Leyen to see if they can reach a compromise was going to be required either way.
The question that's not been answered is whether a compromise is achievable. I think so. But if people arrogantly believe that a Biden victory means the EU don't need to compromise that risks making a No Deal Brexit more likely not less. Both parties need to compromise, it is as simple as that.
Face it, No Deal is dead without a US trade deal in the offing as a ready made alternative, you are of course welcome to move back to Farage in his new party of Reform UK once the deal terms are agreed and that will only be at minimum with Boris accepting most of the EU terms on state aid which he will likely do by Christmas, with fishing talks still kicked into next year.
There was never going to be a US trade deal either way. Trump couldn't negotiate a US trade deal and get it through a Democrat controlled House anyway.
A compromise is the best way out of this and always has been but that entails both parties to compromise, not just one.
Yep, Boris will agree to accept the EU's terms on state aid and kick fishing talks into the long grass now Biden is almost certain of victory, No Deal is dead with Trump's defeat, he may even pull the internal markets bill to keep open the possibility of a FTA with a Biden administration
All correct, Hy, but with one minor correction. No Deal was never alive. Not under any realistic circumstances.
Comments
You can still get 1/16 on Biden in Georgia by the way.
Wear it as a badge of honour, guys....
But it's possible someone didn't want to damage the fur industry, and was just stupid.
How significant these other strains might be is an open question.
This is from the government statement:
Preliminary studies suggest that this virus from cluster 5 exhibits decreased susceptibility to antibodies from more individuals with past infection compared to non-mutated virus. This has been demonstrated in laboratory experiments, where it is seen that the particular mink virus is not inhibited to the same degree by antibodies from humans who have been infected with SARS-CoV compared to other non-mutated SARS-CoV-2 viruses. Studies are currently underway that will further uncover the issue. This finding is of concern as it could potentially have an impact on the future of a future COVID-19 vaccine against infection with this and other new mink variants. It may also pose a risk of impaired immunity to these following COVID-19 infection. It is important both for the individual and for the possibility of reinfections with mutants...
Oh that's sweet
Edit had also totally forgotten that I bet the Dems to win Pennsylvania at 1/3.
Edit 2 My Jon Ossoff bets will run until January. Not too confident on those but who knows. I got on at 2/1 so was worth it.
But there has been no scientific publication, and it's a bit difficult to see what evidence there can be about the effectiveness of a vaccine, considering we don't know that for the versions of the virus that are already in circulation.
https://twitter.com/BrennaKellyNews/status/1324478571151155200?s=19
Anyway thank you. I've taken it up, albeit modestly.
As one expert noted, this kind of story hits the scary button and hence overblown fears. There is no reason, some experts say, why virus adaptation in animal species of a virus already quite prevalent in human populations should result in a virus more adapted to humans than those strains already in humans.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/05/spread-of-mutated-coronavirus-in-danish-mink-hits-all-the-scary-buttons-but-fears-may-be-overblown/
As a general principle, I think that is true. But not absolutely so. The reason this virus infects a wide range of very disparate mammals, from bats to pangolins to mink to cats to humans, is that it binds to the ACE-2 receptor that is found in all these species. So, while accepting the general premise of the cited experts on viral evolution, in this case an adaptation of the virus' spike protein to make it bind more efficiently to the ACE-2 receptor of mink might well, indeed, impact the efficiency of the virus' transmission in human population. And the high density of individual minks in these farms without social distancing or specialized ventilation probably does encourage a faster rate of viral evolution than would occur in human populations:
https://www.pnas.org/content/117/36/22311
PS And mink are the preferred animal model for other human respiratory diseases such as the flu. Indeed, Ron Fouchier did his controversial gain of function flu research on mink
That would be an interesting constitutional innovation.
(Apologies, I'll grab my coat)
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1324760468347564035
https://twitter.com/KuperSimon/status/1324655853266522112
If only he had checked out this thread.
https://twitter.com/Ike_Saul/status/1324435797374808066
ONS up to the 9th October
I think that younger kids were less susceptible has borne out somewhat, even given the huge contact budget we've given them, positivity rate in junior schools has only risen to the average across all age groups, whilst secondaries are higher. We need to get 3 weeks into term to be sure this is not a hiatus, which is possible even with lockdown. (though I don't think the likeliest outcome).
As for the circuit breaker: a 2 week half term for kids would have been useful, and we could have started a lockdown a little earlier, but I believe 4 weeks with an end date in early December, vaccine or no, is not a bad call at the conclusion - if it suppresses, infections should be going down well into mid December and the uptick before Christmas is likely only to be small at that stage. Morale wise - Brexit permitting - we might be in an OK place for something of a Christmas. If we pay by a further round of restriction in January (perhaps as we see a vaccine roll out gaining a little scale), that might not be too bad.
Basically, I think the calls made this month were a 6 and two threes - circuit break would have kicked in and stopped things a little more a little earlier but might have needed a repeat, the current lockdown is nicely timed for a single hit before Christmas, a quite human decision.
Early days, but let's hope the Danish variants don't throw a spanner in the works.
Murdoch and some others, including conservative talk radio, were the main cheerleaders for this new coalition and manifesto in the media. What Carlsson is decrying is not only baked into modern American conservatism, but something that his part of the media landscape is specifically historically linked to, too.
Third wave of Covid has started in Georgia. The election campaign took place as deaths and cases were falling. The run off elections will take place with them rising.
The evidence is sketchy, though, as you say.
This was something MrEd was talking about while Bloomberg was spending his cash on TV adverts.
Edwin: Arjen, the minks are getting a new strain of coronavirus.
Arjen: mustelid be put on this to protect the fur farms?
Will you ever cool down your absolute certainty that you know what's happening next?
Do you want the link images full sized then?
https://twitter.com/spikedonline/status/1323943191477964802?s=20
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9iMy0969BTw
In that regard, I guess more pathogenic strains are more likely to evolve in high density animal reservoirs (like the mink) particularly if they are not more pathogenic to the animal in question. And evolution of all aspects, including the antigenicity of the spike protein, is likely to happen in these types of animal reservoirs faster than in a human population taken measures to bring down R.
I'm slightly more surprised he hasn't been arrested for incitement.
First Amendment rights do not include the call for the violent death of particular individuals. Even if the law is a little sketchy on this.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Imminent_lawless_action
Th plateaus matches the hostile admissions seeming to plateau and the cases seeming to slow their ascent.
As usual - we shall see.....
We know full well Boris was waiting for the US election results to decide whether to risk No Deal which he could only ever do with a Trump re election as Trump had not openly opposed the Internal Markets Bill and had indeed openly pushed the UK to go to No Deal Brexit.
With a Biden win Boris will agree to accept the EU's terms on state aid as he cannot afford no trade deal with the US and the EU and also as he will either have to dilute the impact of the Internal Markets Bill with an EU FTA or withdraw it completely to have any prospect of a trade deal with a Biden and Pelosi led US.
As Sir Ivan Rogers former UK ambassador to the EU has said Rogers said: “Several very senior sources in capitals have told me they believe Johnson will await clarity on the presidential election result before finally deciding whether to jump to ‘no deal’ with the EU, or to conclude that this is just too risky with Biden heading for the White House, and hence live with some highly suboptimal (for Johnson) skinny free-trade agreement.”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/24/johnson-will-wait-for-us-election-result-before-no-deal-brexit-decision
The US result is not only a defeat for Trump but also for his key British backer Farage and No Deal, anti lockdown Brexiteers in the UK
I have a spicy take on this one: it will make Fox News more normal by drawing the poison off into whatever silliness Trump comes up with.
https://twitter.com/RepGallagher/status/1324765676393947139
The US Presidential Election was never more than tangential to this, it was always going to require a political compromise for the big outstanding issues. A meeting between Johnson and Von Der Leyen to see if they can reach a compromise was going to be required either way.
The question that's not been answered is whether a compromise is achievable. I think so. But if people arrogantly believe that a Biden victory means the EU don't need to compromise that risks making a No Deal Brexit more likely not less. Both parties need to compromise, it is as simple as that.
So before everyone rushes off and says that these are all nut jobs who can't accept defeat, it's worthwhile putting into in the context of what has gone on previously.
And, no, that is not me trying to say "it's rigged!" but it is me trying to explain why many of the establishment Republican politicians are not calling out Trump on this and why, generally so far, the Republican establishment seem behind him.
It's also why this whole saga is likely to drag out.
A compromise is the best way out of this and always has been but that entails both parties to compromise, not just one.
I have never supported Farage ever.
1. Wokeness is to blame
2. Wokeness is in trouble
Think more.
Edit - for the avoidance of doubt that is of course aimed at the twitterer not theuniondivvie.