Anyone know when they’re bothering to start counting the mail in votes in Alaska and begin the long March towards Biden taking that one as well?
Have you considered that the pattern of mail in votes in Alaska might not follow the same pattern as elsewhere, at least to the same extreme of polarisation that we've seen?
Alaska is rather different to the rest of the US, especially in November, and I suspect they might do things differently there. eg. What if there are places where you can ONLY vote by mail?
I think it is vanishingly improbable that Biden has won Alaska.
AK Rep is 1.03 and good value at it. Hasn't been blue since LBJ.
Georgia hasn't been blue since 1992 ... those odds are terrible value.
The last decent reputation polls had Biden on 45% and Trump on 50% in Alaska. Not impossible I guess.
I really don't get otherwise well-informed people who don't understand that the election result in one country doesn't have any legal impact in another. Brexit didn't happen (and I use the past tense, as we've already left the EU) because it had a sufficient level of public support in early 2020. It happened because MPs voted for legislation which enacted it, and the path to reversing it involves electing a Parliament who will vote for legislation to rejoin the EU. That is very unlikely to occur, and it hasn't become materially more likely because Trump has lost.
Anyone know when they’re bothering to start counting the mail in votes in Alaska and begin the long March towards Biden taking that one as well?
Have you considered that the pattern of mail in votes in Alaska might not follow the same pattern as elsewhere, at least to the same extreme of polarisation that we've seen?
Alaska is rather different to the rest of the US, especially in November, and I suspect they might do things differently there. eg. What if there are places where you can ONLY vote by mail?
I think it is vanishingly improbable that Biden has won Alaska.
Didn't you tell me that about Georgia when I said Biden was going to win it?
(Apologies if it wasn't you.)
Alaska is NOT a given and neither is it "vanishingly improbable".
I doubt I said that, as I knew Trump was only 5% ahead last time.
Great, albeit obvious, point by Dan Hopkins below on 538 to which I would add that this election is NOT close. It only looks that way because of how the votes were counted. It has been exciting, thrilling, but close it isn't. The only close state is Georgia and Biden has obviously won it no matter how many times Trump tries to recount. There are no hanging chads to rescue him there. Biden has, in fact, won convincingly.
"The fact that ballots are counted sequentially lends the process of vote counting important transparency. But it can also lead us to apply inappropriate mental frames. For instance, we may resort to horse-race language that suggests that Biden is pulling ahead at the last second, but in fact these votes were all cast on or before Election Day. The illusion of a dramatic horse race is simply a product of the order in which we count votes." (Dan Hopkins 538)
Do we figure that GA is settled yet, what with those 8000 military ballots? I know the military weren't polled breaking so much for Trump this time, but I wonder if there is still the possibility of some reverse ferret value here?
I think RCS said that Clinton won the military vote in Georgia in 2016 so not sure Trump is going to gain much if anything from it this year.
National calculated R from the ONS data is 0.9-1.1 depending on the region.
I finally feel comfortable in saying the nation has turned a corner wrt getting the virus under control, well it did so two weeks ago and we're seeing the data for it now. Next week we should see further drops in the R and hopefully at or below 1 everywhere.
My Dad heard from his Gardening client, whose daughter is Head of Covid at a hospital, that the vaccine is all done and dusted
Sorry to be thick but that seems ambiguous! Done and dusted = no good OR done and dusted = ready to go?
Great, albeit obvious, point by Dan Hopkins below on 538 to which I would add that this election is NOT close. It only looks that way because of how the votes were counted. It has been exciting, thrilling, but close it isn't. The only close state is Georgia and Biden has obviously won it no matter how many times Trump tries to recount. There are no hanging chads to rescue him there. Biden has, in fact, won convincingly.
"The fact that ballots are counted sequentially lends the process of vote counting important transparency. But it can also lead us to apply inappropriate mental frames. For instance, we may resort to horse-race language that suggests that Biden is pulling ahead at the last second, but in fact these votes were all cast on or before Election Day. The illusion of a dramatic horse race is simply a product of the order in which we count votes." (Dan Hopkins 538)
I always thought it was an interesting psychological difference marker between America and Britain that in the US one runs for election but in the UK one stands.
Trump can't even steal an election competently, despite years to plan. Rather than spurious legal challenges after he falls behind, he could have had militia on the streets while he was leading. Thank goodness he isn't capable of strategy.
Adonis is an arse, but there now a serious problem re: brexit, no?
I don't know, is there?
Really, the great opportunity the referendum gave was by telling the political establishment what they were missing by only talking to themselves - that half of the country fundamentally disagreed with them. Cameron, Clegg and Miliband thought the status quo was hunky dory, but it wasn't. I don't know that they have taken any notice - Sir Keir and Boris are squabbling over small print re lockdown as if everyone is with them on that.
Do we figure that GA is settled yet, what with those 8000 military ballots? I know the military weren't polled breaking so much for Trump this time, but I wonder if there is still the possibility of some reverse ferret value here?
There aren't 8k military ballots to be counted in GA, there are 'up to' 8k. 8k of the military ballots sent out weren't returned by election day, but have a few days to arrive (if posted by election day). So some of those will arrive, but almost certainly it won't be anywhere near all of them. Most of those 8k probably never voted.
Do we figure that GA is settled yet, what with those 8000 military ballots? I know the military weren't polled breaking so much for Trump this time, but I wonder if there is still the possibility of some reverse ferret value here?
I think RCS said that Clinton won the military vote in Georgia in 2016 so not sure Trump is going to gain much if anything from it this year.
Yes, the American military trends, as @Dura_Ace pointed out, more towards highly educated specialists than most militaries. And Trump's "losers and suckers" assessment of the boys and girls in pinks, greens, khaki and blue won't have helped him any.
Great, albeit obvious, point by Dan Hopkins below on 538 to which I would add that this election is NOT close. It only looks that way because of how the votes were counted. It has been exciting, thrilling, but close it isn't. The only close state is Georgia and Biden has obviously won it no matter how many times Trump tries to recount. There are no hanging chads to rescue him there. Biden has, in fact, won convincingly.
"The fact that ballots are counted sequentially lends the process of vote counting important transparency. But it can also lead us to apply inappropriate mental frames. For instance, we may resort to horse-race language that suggests that Biden is pulling ahead at the last second, but in fact these votes were all cast on or before Election Day. The illusion of a dramatic horse race is simply a product of the order in which we count votes." (Dan Hopkins 538)
And in some states a deliberate illusion caused by Republicans themselves.
Trump can't even steal an election competently, despite years to plan. Rather than spurious legal challenges after he falls behind, he could have had militia on the streets while he was leading. Thank goodness he isn't capable of strategy.
Some people have advanced the notion is that he doesn't get to be counted as a Fascist because he didn't get well enough organised.
BTW before i go thanks to Mike, Robert, TSE and all the Mods for proving the best place to enjoy the US Election. And to Barnesian for the on night Zoom.
Re. North Carolina and Alaska, here's from the 538 live blog. I don't think Alaska is over. Actually neither of them are entirely.
"You might be wondering about North Carolina and Alaska, two unprojected states that we haven’t heard a peep from in days. Well, there’s a good reason for that: Both states accept absentee ballots that arrive as late as next week, and they won’t provide any updates until Nov. 10 (in Alaska) and Nov. 12 or 13 (in North Carolina). In fact, Alaska hasn’t released any absentee-ballot results yet, so that state (and its surprisingly competitive Senate race) is still up in the air."
And whatever Thom Tillis thinks, he hasn't yet defeated Cal Cunningham for the Senate. The Alaska Senate race is also not a given.
If the Dems end up with a 1 seat majority in the Senate with a double run off in Georgia to come I will laugh my cock off.
How far off 50% is Purdue - could a recount change that ?
The second lockdown has probably had a bigger effect.
The same people he's fucked off with that would be even more fucked off with a deal, and he doesn't want to do both at the same time and generate letters.
So I think he'll try and can kick a decision until we come out of lockdown and he has some good news.
I think this will go all the way to the wire and only be settled in the week before Christmas. Hopefully, the EU and UK will then agree the final FTA can-kicks any changes for 6 months so The Transition ends but we have a transition (small t) into the new deal.
Trump can't even steal an election competently, despite years to plan. Rather than spurious legal challenges after he falls behind, he could have had militia on the streets while he was leading. Thank goodness he isn't capable of strategy.
Some people have advanced the notion is that he doesn't get to be counted as a Fascist because he didn't get well enough organised.
Do we figure that GA is settled yet, what with those 8000 military ballots? I know the military weren't polled breaking so much for Trump this time, but I wonder if there is still the possibility of some reverse ferret value here?
I think RCS said that Clinton won the military vote in Georgia in 2016 so not sure Trump is going to gain much if anything from it this year.
GA looks pretty solid now for Biden, dont see the ex pat/military making much difference in the result , more the margin of victory. Aslo they dont even know how many have actually been received or will be today (the last day) so may well be a fair bit less than the was it 9000? mentioned. And with a few thousand lead at least, unlikely a recount will change that, though god knows what other mischief Trump will raise about GA.
Not many of them have the energy to do much at all (some of course do). Some are super active, but to be POTUS? Seems a big ask. Although I accept that to be there, Biden was self-selecting in terms of health, fitness, etc.
Edit: I suppose HMQ and the DoE showed that people can be effective up to a great age.
Note that China appears to have been prompter than this in sharing data...
/twitter.com/_b_meyer/status/1324687427332702208
With all the other news, the potentially huge news out of Denmark isn't getting that much coverage. We could literally be stuck in the current loop for entity.
Checking, I think the Democrats need to outpoll the Republicans 71/29 in the outstanding votes to win Alaska. Anything can happen of course, but I don't know why Alaska would shift dramatically from 2016.
Well, now it's pretty much over I will admit a) my prediction of a Biden landslide was completely wrong, and b) I really don't care as long as Trump is gone.
(Any anyway, I think I only called three states wrong (Texas, Ohio, Florida), so I was pretty close really).
Awe I missed PA crossover. All over now it seems, they have to start calling states soon I find it hard to believe nothing's been called yet - especially NV.
Not many of them have the energy to do much at all (some of course do). Some are super active, but to be POTUS? Seems a big ask. Although I accept that to be there, Biden was self-selecting in terms of health, fitness, etc.
Edit: I suppose HMQ and the DoE showed that people can be effective up to a great age.
What do you reckon Big G; should you & I make a joint offer!
Re. North Carolina and Alaska, here's from the 538 live blog. I don't think Alaska is over. Actually neither of them are entirely.
"You might be wondering about North Carolina and Alaska, two unprojected states that we haven’t heard a peep from in days. Well, there’s a good reason for that: Both states accept absentee ballots that arrive as late as next week, and they won’t provide any updates until Nov. 10 (in Alaska) and Nov. 12 or 13 (in North Carolina). In fact, Alaska hasn’t released any absentee-ballot results yet, so that state (and its surprisingly competitive Senate race) is still up in the air."
And whatever Thom Tillis thinks, he hasn't yet defeated Cal Cunningham for the Senate. The Alaska Senate race is also not a given.
If the Dems end up with a 1 seat majority in the Senate with a double run off in Georgia to come I will laugh my cock off.
How far off 50% is Purdue - could a recount change that ?
Perdue will probably be about 0.5% short, and 2% ahead of Ossoff.
Checking, I think the Democrats need to outpoll the Republicans 71/29 in the outstanding votes to win Alaska. Anything can happen of course, but I don't know why Alaska would shift dramatically from 2016.
If everyone who voted by mail in 2016 voted by mail this time then the extra 2020 ballots over 2016 would need to be 100% Dem for Biden to get that ratio and win.
Awe I missed PA crossover. All over now it seems, they have to start calling states soon I find it hard to believe nothing's been called yet - especially NV.
The story that No 10 were waiting on the US election result before finalising has the ring of truth. I also sense that for all the talk, they do want/need a deal to be done.
Not many of them have the energy to do much at all (some of course do). Some are super active, but to be POTUS? Seems a big ask. Although I accept that to be there, Biden was self-selecting in terms of health, fitness, etc.
Edit: I suppose HMQ and the DoE showed that people can be effective up to a great age.
What do you reckon Big G; should you & I make a joint offer!
I reckon you'd stroll it.
But if you look at UK PMs, they age by about 20yrs in the 5yrs of PM-ship.
Not many of them have the energy to do much at all (some of course do). Some are super active, but to be POTUS? Seems a big ask. Although I accept that to be there, Biden was self-selecting in terms of health, fitness, etc.
Edit: I suppose HMQ and the DoE showed that people can be effective up to a great age.
What do you reckon Big G; should you & I make a joint offer!
I reckon you'd stroll it.
But if you look at UK PMs, they age by about 20yrs in the 5yrs of PM-ship.
The before/after photos of Obama are quite striking. Definitely a stressful position.
Note that China appears to have been prompter than this in sharing data...
/twitter.com/_b_meyer/status/1324687427332702208
With all the other news, the potentially huge news out of Denmark isn't getting that much coverage. We could literally be stuck in the current loop for entity.
I read through the thread there and the assessment in Derek Lowe’s blog. The TLDR is that “this is potentially an issue but we don’t know how big, so we’re going to stomp on it really hard and remove the animal vector that could cause more mutations”. The media seems to have taken the story a little too far. The fire alarm has been pulled because of a fire in the store room, nit because the factory floor is in flames.
Checking, I think the Democrats need to outpoll the Republicans 71/29 in the outstanding votes to win Alaska. Anything can happen of course, but I don't know why Alaska would shift dramatically from 2016.
Trump's favourably numbers in Alaska collapsed over 2019.
Trump can't even steal an election competently, despite years to plan. Rather than spurious legal challenges after he falls behind, he could have had militia on the streets while he was leading. Thank goodness he isn't capable of strategy.
This is what I was most wrong about. I never thought that Trump would be sending direct orders to the militia, but I expected that the protests we've seen at the count centres would have been armed and stormed them without direct orders.
It's not happened.
Trump was leading in the vote counts in enough states to get to 270 on Wednesday. In my nightmare scenario the counts would have been stopped by force and declared by state legislatures on the basis of the partial counts.
Do we figure that GA is settled yet, what with those 8000 military ballots? I know the military weren't polled breaking so much for Trump this time, but I wonder if there is still the possibility of some reverse ferret value here?
I think RCS said that Clinton won the military vote in Georgia in 2016 so not sure Trump is going to gain much if anything from it this year.
GA looks pretty solid now for Biden, dont see the ex pat/military making much difference in the result , more the margin of victory. Aslo they dont even know how many have actually been received or will be today (the last day) so may well be a fair bit less than the was it 9000? mentioned. And with a few thousand lead at least, unlikely a recount will change that, though god knows what other mischief Trump will raise about GA.
If you look at the GA map, Columbus is Blue. That is Fort Benning. Savannah is Blue. That is Fort Gordon. Draw you own conclusions.
Trump can't even steal an election competently, despite years to plan. Rather than spurious legal challenges after he falls behind, he could have had militia on the streets while he was leading. Thank goodness he isn't capable of strategy.
This is what I was most wrong about. I never thought that Trump would be sending direct orders to the militia, but I expected that the protests we've seen at the count centres would have been armed and stormed them without direct orders.
It's not happened.
Trump was leading in the vote counts in enough states to get to 270 on Wednesday. In my nightmare scenario the counts would have been stopped by force and declared by state legislatures on the basis of the partial counts.
It's quite a robust democracy really isn't it, whatever Trump has tried? I love the way officials, even courts, have ignored him almost completely during the counting.
The system has faults but there are a lot of checks and balances in place to protect freedom.
Portland really needs serious action...the violence is still going every night and they are targeting elected officials for daring to vote the wrong way.
The group gathered on North Holman Street at the home of Portland City Commissioner Dan Ryan. While there, individuals broke a window, threw burning flares and paint filled balloons at the home, and broke potted plants.
Comments
If I were Trump I would have stayed silent or put out briefings that i wanted to see all the votes counted before further comment.
Then in concession speech referenced it might all have been different if not for Covid but Congrats to Joe
https://twitter.com/AlbertoNardelli/status/1324749660863553536
"The fact that ballots are counted sequentially lends the process of vote counting important transparency. But it can also lead us to apply inappropriate mental frames. For instance, we may resort to horse-race language that suggests that Biden is pulling ahead at the last second, but in fact these votes were all cast on or before Election Day. The illusion of a dramatic horse race is simply a product of the order in which we count votes." (Dan Hopkins 538)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54820652
Thank goodness he isn't capable of strategy.
Really, the great opportunity the referendum gave was by telling the political establishment what they were missing by only talking to themselves - that half of the country fundamentally disagreed with them. Cameron, Clegg and Miliband thought the status quo was hunky dory, but it wasn't. I don't know that they have taken any notice - Sir Keir and Boris are squabbling over small print re lockdown as if everyone is with them on that.
I don't share her politics, but every argument she makes on this is correct.
And quicker on his calls, too.
https://twitter.com/_b_meyer/status/1324687427332702208
The same people he's fucked off with that would be even more fucked off with a deal, and he doesn't want to do both at the same time and generate letters.
So I think he'll try and can kick a decision until we come out of lockdown and he has some good news.
I think this will go all the way to the wire and only be settled in the week before Christmas. Hopefully, the EU and UK will then agree the final FTA can-kicks any changes for 6 months so The Transition ends but we have a transition (small t) into the new deal.
Not many of them have the energy to do much at all (some of course do). Some are super active, but to be POTUS? Seems a big ask. Although I accept that to be there, Biden was self-selecting in terms of health, fitness, etc.
Edit: I suppose HMQ and the DoE showed that people can be effective up to a great age.
(Any anyway, I think I only called three states wrong (Texas, Ohio, Florida), so I was pretty close really).
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324750565092610048?s=19
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/1324753466644963328
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1324752659996397575?s=19
Pirates of the Caribbean will need a new lead pirate if there's any more films.
https://twitter.com/simonemarie4/status/1324753023432708098
But if you look at UK PMs, they age by about 20yrs in the 5yrs of PM-ship.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/measure-110-oregon-votes-to-decriminalise-possession-of-small-amounts-of-hard-drugs-g697p606m
They don't seem to bother prosecuting loads of crimes as it is, so might as well get them off the books.
It's not happened.
Trump was leading in the vote counts in enough states to get to 270 on Wednesday. In my nightmare scenario the counts would have been stopped by force and declared by state legislatures on the basis of the partial counts.
The system has faults but there are a lot of checks and balances in place to protect freedom.
I think he's at 50.5% at the moment and I could see him getting damn close once California and all the absentees are in.
It's 3.15 on Betfair. Following a tip from @Quincel on Twitter a while back I've put a couple of ponies on it.
It feels like it's more like evens.
The group gathered on North Holman Street at the home of Portland City Commissioner Dan Ryan. While there, individuals broke a window, threw burning flares and paint filled balloons at the home, and broke potted plants.
https://flashalert.net/id/MCSO/139816
Have Fox called it yet? I wonder who will call it first?
Cases by specimen date
Cases by specimen date scaled to 100k population
R