As the counts continue it’s looking pretty certain that Biden will be heading for the White House –
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Have you considered that the pattern of mail in votes in Alaska might not follow the same pattern as elsewhere, at least to the same extreme of polarisation that we've seen?alex_ said:Anyone know when they’re bothering to start counting the mail in votes in Alaska and begin the long March towards Biden taking that one as well?
Alaska is rather different to the rest of the US, especially in November, and I suspect they might do things differently there. eg. What if there are places where you can ONLY vote by mail?0 -
And the deadline is todayOnboardG1 said:Can we be clear. Those 8-9k potential ballots in Georgia are a) OVERSEAS and military (I.e expatriate voters) so won’t all be military and b) not actually delivered yet so we don’t know how many will actually arrive. We don’t know how many will arrive and what their composition will be. My hunch is the US military is pretty organised in getting those ballots back to the states so I’m guessing most outstanding ballots are from expatriates. That is just a guess.
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The article by Nate Cohn that I just linked to says no late ballots have yet been counted.MrEd said:
There seems to be some disagreement on that - some reports they have been included in the count.OnboardG1 said:This is also very important
https://mobile.twitter.com/jimrutenberg/status/1324720338853388288?s=200 -
I think that many soldiers have little time for Trump.rcs1000 said:
In 2016, the military ballot went for Clinton, which I suspect is an artifact of the Georgia military being majority African American. Simply: I can't expect it to have an impact.OnboardG1 said:
Yeah, almost all the mail ballots are in Clark and split Biden by 11 points so far. Hard to see Trump coming back. AZ is closer but the AZ data peeps seem bearish that Trump can keep the momentum he needs to win it. Likely Biden is the estimate. Georgia will probably stay blue but that’s a bit less certain. Once the remaining 10k odd mail ballots are counted there are 9k possible mil/overseas that might arrive in time (hard to tell lean, possibly a wash), 2k mail ins to be cured (probably lean D), and 5k provisionals (also probably lean D, won’t all be counted).rcs1000 said:
Oh, I moved to Likely Democrat last night, and it's "Almost Certainly Democrat" now.bigjohnowls said:
How is your NV ls 50/50 to NV leans Trump journey looking Robert?rcs1000 said:You know, the flips announced by CNN really will go with the WI/MI/PA theme...
It is possible that the recount changes things, after all there was the whole county where votes were the wrong size and had to be manually recreated. BUT I'd reckon it's less than a 5% chance.
As it stands, Biden is 99.9% for PA, 98% for GA, 95% for NV, 85% for AZ, and 40% for NC.
Notable this year was another resounding Republican success in the State legislatures. It looks as if they will hold 59 out of 100.
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Aberdeen South is more a suburb of Aberdeen than a fishing port, next year the Tories should focus on holding the MSPs they have, the gains necessary to deprive the SNP of their majority will need to come from SLab in the central belt winning over Tory and LD tactical voters where SLab are the main opponents to the SNPCarnyx said:
Only had a SNP MP for less thjan a year. The NE fringe is supposed to be a Tory stroinghold. All those fisherfolk, remember.HYUFD said:
Aberdeen South has an SNP MP and an SNP MSP so it really just signals no changeCarnyx said:
THanks for that. On checking, I find the election is caused by Stephen Flynn becoiming a SNP MP for Aberdeen South in place of Ross Thomson the Tory. Mr Flynn was top of the slate at the previous cooncil election so we are comparfing like with like (sometimes a problem with interpreting by-elections in those multimember Scoittish local cooncil elections, of course).AndreaParma_82 said:by-election in Aberdeen held yesterday. Kincorth / Nigg / Cove ward
SNP 1661 (47.4%, +6.7)
Con 709 (20.2%, -1.3)
Lab 429 (12.2%, -5.3)
Ind 367 (10.5%, -0.4)
Lib Dem 128 (3.6%, -1.6)
Greens 58 (1.7%, +1.7)
Ind 92 (2.6%)
Ind 31 (0.9%)
Libertarian -16 (0.5%)
Ind 16 (0.5%)
SNP hold.
Doesn't promise much for the Scottish Tory fightback - fishing area, too - and still less for SLAB, their local Unionist Alliance partners on the council and the supposed penal battalions for the Union over the next year or so. Still less any tactical voting from Tory to Labour, though that's hardly to be expected here when the Tory was No. 2.0 -
The best bet I totally failed to make was this. i'm pretty sure i was reading it right but it was a bit mad at the time. I'm not clever enough to post this as a picture and not sure exactly when i posted it. maybe around 3.30am. if there are any of those vote graphs still around it might confirm what the lead was then.
paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 1,194
November 4
minnesota looks great for JB unless I'm reading it wrong. (almost 300k ahead and I thought this was a red mirage state) is 2/5 value?
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50k Nevada votes will be reported today a 9am Nevada time.1
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And the deadline is todayOnboardG1 said:Can we be clear. Those 8-9k potential ballots in Georgia are a) OVERSEAS and military (I.e expatriate voters) so won’t all be military and b) not actually delivered yet so we don’t know how many will actually arrive. We don’t know how many will arrive and what their composition will be. My hunch is the US military is pretty organised in getting those ballots back to the states so I’m guessing most outstanding ballots are from expatriates. That is just a guess.
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They actually said the Military vote will be anything greater than zero and less than 8890IanB2 said:Presser from SoS GA. confirming over 8000 military votes outstanding, with a deadline for return of today.
Confirming GA expects a full recount.0 -
The changes compared to last time are computed summing together the 2 SNP 2017 candidates: Flynn polled 27% and Alex Nicoll polled 13.7%Carnyx said:
THanks for that. On checking, I find the election is caused by Stephen Flynn becoiming a SNP MP for Aberdeen South in place of Ross Thomson the Tory. Mr Flynn was top of the slate at the previous cooncil election so we are comparfing like with like (sometimes a problem with interpreting by-elections in those multimember Scoittish local cooncil elections, of course).AndreaParma_82 said:by-election in Aberdeen held yesterday. Kincorth / Nigg / Cove ward
SNP 1661 (47.4%, +6.7)
Con 709 (20.2%, -1.3)
Lab 429 (12.2%, -5.3)
Ind 367 (10.5%, -0.4)
Lib Dem 128 (3.6%, -1.6)
Greens 58 (1.7%, +1.7)
Ind 92 (2.6%)
Ind 31 (0.9%)
Libertarian -16 (0.5%)
Ind 16 (0.5%)
SNP hold.
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Trump supporters pray outside of Clark County Election Department in Nevada
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/524794-trump-supporters-pray-outside-of-clark-county-election-department-in0 -
Thats why I cashed my profit out Cant see Betfair settling in Novemberrcs1000 said:
Georgia military went for Clinton in 2016, so I suspect they'll go for Biden this time around.Pro_Rata said:Do we figure that GA is settled yet, what with those 8000 military ballots? I know the military weren't polled breaking so much for Trump this time, but I wonder if there is still the possibility of some reverse ferret value here?
THAT SAID: I doubt the State will be called until after those are received and tabulated.0 -
They have not been counted because they are under legal challenge. They have been segregated and will only be counted when that is resolved.MrEd said:
There seems to be some disagreement on that - some reports they have been included in the count.OnboardG1 said:This is also very important
https://mobile.twitter.com/jimrutenberg/status/1324720338853388288?s=200 -
They should have called me, I love canvassing.Alistair said:Interesting. Seems like the Lack of door knocking deffo hurt Biden
https://www.twitter.com/AOC/status/1324696915196416000
With my knocking up skills the Dems would have won the on the day vote as well.0 -
According to NBC they have not.MrEd said:
There seems to be some disagreement on that - some reports they have been included in the count.OnboardG1 said:This is also very important
https://mobile.twitter.com/jimrutenberg/status/1324720338853388288?s=20
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My Dad heard from his Gardening client, whose daughter is Head of Covid at a hospital, that the vaccine is all done and dustedMaxPB said:National calculated R from the ONS data is 0.9-1.1 depending on the region.
I finally feel comfortable in saying the nation has turned a corner wrt getting the virus under control, well it did so two weeks ago and we're seeing the data for it now. Next week we should see further drops in the R and hopefully at or below 1 everywhere.3 -
What is that supposed to mean? Usually it would mean Biden would be president if someone died. It's gibberish.Scott_xP said:0 -
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According to CNN they have notFysics_Teacher said:
According to NBC they have not.MrEd said:
There seems to be some disagreement on that - some reports they have been included in the count.OnboardG1 said:This is also very important
https://mobile.twitter.com/jimrutenberg/status/1324720338853388288?s=20
According to Fox they have not
According to the SoS they have not
According to the Trump Campaign who cares
Which reports are you referring to1 -
I think it is vanishingly improbable that Biden has won Alaska.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Have you considered that the pattern of mail in votes in Alaska might not follow the same pattern as elsewhere, at least to the same extreme of polarisation that we've seen?alex_ said:Anyone know when they’re bothering to start counting the mail in votes in Alaska and begin the long March towards Biden taking that one as well?
Alaska is rather different to the rest of the US, especially in November, and I suspect they might do things differently there. eg. What if there are places where you can ONLY vote by mail?3 -
Fysics_Teacher said:
According to NBC they have not.MrEd said:
There seems to be some disagreement on that - some reports they have been included in the count.OnboardG1 said:This is also very important
https://mobile.twitter.com/jimrutenberg/status/1324720338853388288?s=20
Apparently the Guardian is saying they have been. Personally, I would go with the American media but just to flag.Fysics_Teacher said:
According to NBC they have not.MrEd said:
There seems to be some disagreement on that - some reports they have been included in the count.OnboardG1 said:This is also very important
https://mobile.twitter.com/jimrutenberg/status/1324720338853388288?s=200 -
Pedantic point of the day: It is actually 59 out of 99. Nebraska is unicameral.Sean_F said:
I think that many soldiers have little time for Trump.rcs1000 said:
In 2016, the military ballot went for Clinton, which I suspect is an artifact of the Georgia military being majority African American. Simply: I can't expect it to have an impact.OnboardG1 said:
Yeah, almost all the mail ballots are in Clark and split Biden by 11 points so far. Hard to see Trump coming back. AZ is closer but the AZ data peeps seem bearish that Trump can keep the momentum he needs to win it. Likely Biden is the estimate. Georgia will probably stay blue but that’s a bit less certain. Once the remaining 10k odd mail ballots are counted there are 9k possible mil/overseas that might arrive in time (hard to tell lean, possibly a wash), 2k mail ins to be cured (probably lean D), and 5k provisionals (also probably lean D, won’t all be counted).rcs1000 said:
Oh, I moved to Likely Democrat last night, and it's "Almost Certainly Democrat" now.bigjohnowls said:
How is your NV ls 50/50 to NV leans Trump journey looking Robert?rcs1000 said:You know, the flips announced by CNN really will go with the WI/MI/PA theme...
It is possible that the recount changes things, after all there was the whole county where votes were the wrong size and had to be manually recreated. BUT I'd reckon it's less than a 5% chance.
As it stands, Biden is 99.9% for PA, 98% for GA, 95% for NV, 85% for AZ, and 40% for NC.
Notable this year was another resounding Republican success in the State legislatures. It looks as if they will hold 59 out of 100.3 -
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I think it's the only time zone I've ever walked out of and into, on the Hoover Dam bridge.not_on_fire said:0 -
So do you think we are back on for a Trump win?MrEd said:
There seems to be some disagreement on that - some reports they have been included in the count.OnboardG1 said:This is also very important
https://mobile.twitter.com/jimrutenberg/status/1324720338853388288?s=200 -
One report even confirmed they were all wrapped up in bubblewrap for security! And as others have said, they have not been includedbigjohnowls said:
According to CNN they have notFysics_Teacher said:
According to NBC they have not.MrEd said:
There seems to be some disagreement on that - some reports they have been included in the count.OnboardG1 said:This is also very important
https://mobile.twitter.com/jimrutenberg/status/1324720338853388288?s=20
According to Fox they have not
According to the SoS they have not
According to the Trump Campaign who cares
Which reports are you referring to0 -
I've been reliably informed from family and friends who are doctors that the NHS is basically giving remedial training to all medical staff to administer vaccines as they expect to need to administer 150m doses within 6 months for it to be effective which is a huge task.isam said:
My Dad heard from his Gardening client, whose daughter is Head of Covid at a hospital, that the vaccine is all done and dustedMaxPB said:National calculated R from the ONS data is 0.9-1.1 depending on the region.
I finally feel comfortable in saying the nation has turned a corner wrt getting the virus under control, well it did so two weeks ago and we're seeing the data for it now. Next week we should see further drops in the R and hopefully at or below 1 everywhere.0 -
Only if your surname is Trump,,,,,and perhaps FarageMexicanpete said:
So do you think we are back on for a Trump win?MrEd said:
There seems to be some disagreement on that - some reports they have been included in the count.OnboardG1 said:This is also very important
https://mobile.twitter.com/jimrutenberg/status/1324720338853388288?s=201 -
Surely the Dems need to put Pelosi out to grass?3
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Re the uncounted Pennsylvania late arriving ballots, I can't see the Supreme Court accepting them. Simply, the legislature said the end of election day, and the Supreme Court changed it to Thursday because of postal delays. The SC will say that the Pennsylvania Court had no right to allow that change.
This will be the only challenge the SC will hear in Pennsylvania.0 -
I agree with this Robert, I think Trump will get a win with this but not much else, and those votes wont make a difference of course.rcs1000 said:Re the uncounted Pennsylvania late arriving ballots, I can't see the Supreme Court accepting them. Simply, the legislature said the end of election day, and the Supreme Court changed it to Thursday because of postal delays. The SC will say that the Pennsylvania Court had no right to allow that change.
This will be the only challenge the SC will hear in Pennsylvania.0 -
It is not newsMal557 said:
One report even confirmed they were all wrapped up in bubblewrap for security! And as others have said, they have not been includedbigjohnowls said:
According to CNN they have notFysics_Teacher said:
According to NBC they have not.MrEd said:
There seems to be some disagreement on that - some reports they have been included in the count.OnboardG1 said:This is also very important
https://mobile.twitter.com/jimrutenberg/status/1324720338853388288?s=20
According to Fox they have not
According to the SoS they have not
According to the Trump Campaign who cares
Which reports are you referring to
But Mr Ed adds to the site and i expect him to confirm which reports shortly.
If its put their heads on pikes news source it wont sway me0 -
I’m guessing RCS hasn’t been there.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Have you considered that the pattern of mail in votes in Alaska might not follow the same pattern as elsewhere, at least to the same extreme of polarisation that we've seen?alex_ said:Anyone know when they’re bothering to start counting the mail in votes in Alaska and begin the long March towards Biden taking that one as well?
Alaska is rather different to the rest of the US, especially in November, and I suspect they might do things differently there. eg. What if there are places where you can ONLY vote by mail?0 -
There are another 4,000 mail in votes plus up to 8,800 military ballots in GA to count. (The real number will be smaller.) I suspect that means the overall Biden margin will be in the 4-5,000 vote range.
While there will be a recount, GA is a Dem pickup.0 -
60k votes to drop Now AZ0
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CA won't have finished counting by then, so no call from the BBC.numbertwelve said:
The BBC might end up calling the election before the next one, if we're lucky.Chris said:Even the BBC now has an article headed "It won't be long now." The conclusion - "the results are what they are".
I'm glad I don't pay a licence fee.0 -
AOC has some very valid reasons as to why the Democrats have done badly in places
https://twitter.com/AOC/status/13246943012349214741 -
23,287 new cases.0
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Trump has paid the price of alienating moderate Republicans (and I'd be in that category if I lived over there). It may be his appalling boorishness and his other grotesque character traits play better in the States than they do here but frankly few people of reasonable intelligence could put up with such a twat in the White House for another four more years.3
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Of Trump voting?FrancisUrquhart said:23,287 new cases.
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https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324744211531403265
Trump only 52% in latest Maricopa. Not good enough. GG.1 -
He’s not going to the inauguration is he? There has to be some chance he leaves D.C. any day now and just doesn’t come back to do his job.Scott_xP said:
Edit - oooo, wait, hang on, my long thought dead less bet on Trump leaving office before the end of this first term!1 -
I was confusing Arizona and Nevada.0
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That makes it very hard for Trump to win AZ.OnboardG1 said:https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324744211531403265
Trump only 52% in latest Maricopa. Not good enough. GG.0 -
Easy enough to do, your honour.Fysics_Teacher said:I was confusing Arizona and Nevada.
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It was my fault for getting people excited about Alaska.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Have you considered that the pattern of mail in votes in Alaska might not follow the same pattern as elsewhere, at least to the same extreme of polarisation that we've seen?alex_ said:Anyone know when they’re bothering to start counting the mail in votes in Alaska and begin the long March towards Biden taking that one as well?
Alaska is rather different to the rest of the US, especially in November, and I suspect they might do things differently there. eg. What if there are places where you can ONLY vote by mail?
The nimbers do not seem to be there on second look0 -
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He 'aint gonna do it I think.rcs1000 said:
That makes it very hard for Trump to win AZ.OnboardG1 said:https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324744211531403265
Trump only 52% in latest Maricopa. Not good enough. GG.0 -
What time did Biden pull ahead in PA and GA?0
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Down to 1.05 with Bf nowOnboardG1 said:https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324744211531403265
Trump only 52% in latest Maricopa. Not good enough. GG.0 -
Adonis is an arse, but there now a serious problem re: brexit, no?isam said:How to accept democratic defeat
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1324741179427246086?s=200 -
Not a problem if done by democratic means 😎isam said:How to accept defeat and move on
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1324741179427246086?s=200 -
A “rejoin” campaign capable of taking 20% of votes for the LibDems and galvanising his new voters is probably one of the PM’s fantasies isn’t it?isam said:How to accept defeat and move on
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1324741179427246086?s=20
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AZ still 220k to go 140k from same area as just now
As i said earlier last chance to get 1.27 on Biden
Its now 1.051 -
Twat. Try learning the lessons that Trump won't. You know, about the will of the people and all that.isam said:How to accept defeat and move on
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1324741179427246086?s=200 -
Worse for Trump that drop was some ratio of late-mail in (strongly R, closer to 15 points) and on the day drop off. That suggests on the day was very D leaning. Biden could actually extend his lead in the next set of drops.Stocky said:
Down to 1.05 with Bf nowOnboardG1 said:https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324744211531403265
Trump only 52% in latest Maricopa. Not good enough. GG.0 -
Though the Beeb have called ME-02 for Trump, CNN have not yet.Anabobazina said:
They are utterly hopeless.numbertwelve said:
The BBC might end up calling the election before the next one, if we're lucky.Chris said:Even the BBC now has an article headed "It won't be long now." The conclusion - "the results are what they are".
I'm glad I don't pay a licence fee.
I flicked over last night just to see – lasted about two minutes despairing at the drivel they were putting out.0 -
It makes a change from wanting to pull down statues.isam said:How to accept defeat and move on
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1324741179427246086?s=20
He is seriously …...odd.0 -
Almost all the permanent Alaskan population is around Anchorage and Juneau, isn't it?Wulfrun_Phil said:
Have you considered that the pattern of mail in votes in Alaska might not follow the same pattern as elsewhere, at least to the same extreme of polarisation that we've seen?alex_ said:Anyone know when they’re bothering to start counting the mail in votes in Alaska and begin the long March towards Biden taking that one as well?
Alaska is rather different to the rest of the US, especially in November, and I suspect they might do things differently there. eg. What if there are places where you can ONLY vote by mail?
Mail in voting in AK doesn't even start until next week. The Senate race *might* be interesting, and the state is trending Blue, but I'd be very surprised if it didn't stay Red at the Presidential level.
Still, who the fuck knows. This election has thrown a ridiculous number of curve balls.1 -
Why? There’ll be no US trade deal, which was always going to be the case, but with the advantage of not even being offered a shit one by Trump we’re pressured to accept. The grand strategy is, presumably, to become part of the Pacific deal so that ultimately we get the US through that route by default.ping said:
Adonis is an arse, but there now a serious problem re: brexit, no?isam said:How to accept democratic defeat
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1324741179427246086?s=20
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Sorry to be thick but that seems ambiguous! Done and dusted = no good OR done and dusted = ready to go?isam said:
My Dad heard from his Gardening client, whose daughter is Head of Covid at a hospital, that the vaccine is all done and dustedMaxPB said:National calculated R from the ONS data is 0.9-1.1 depending on the region.
I finally feel comfortable in saying the nation has turned a corner wrt getting the virus under control, well it did so two weeks ago and we're seeing the data for it now. Next week we should see further drops in the R and hopefully at or below 1 everywhere.0 -
Yep even the 1.06 free money would be worth it apart from the likely settlement dateOnboardG1 said:
Worse for Trump that drop was some ratio of late-mail in (strongly R, closer to 15 points) and on the day drop off. That suggests on the day was very D leaning. Biden could actually extend his lead in the next set of drops.Stocky said:
Down to 1.05 with Bf nowOnboardG1 said:https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324744211531403265
Trump only 52% in latest Maricopa. Not good enough. GG.0 -
Indeed and a number of my right-leaning friends are commenting on how dignified and, well, Presidential Joe Biden is being. They seem as pleased as I am.Norm said:Trump has paid the price of alienating moderate Republicans (and I'd be in that category if I lived over there). It may be his appalling boorishness and his other grotesque character traits play better in the States than they do here but frankly few people of reasonable intelligence could put up with such a twat in the White House for another four more years.
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It can't be that hard to do - I mean pharmacists do it...MaxPB said:
I've been reliably informed from family and friends who are doctors that the NHS is basically giving remedial training to all medical staff to administer vaccines as they expect to need to administer 150m doses within 6 months for it to be effective which is a huge task.isam said:
My Dad heard from his Gardening client, whose daughter is Head of Covid at a hospital, that the vaccine is all done and dustedMaxPB said:National calculated R from the ONS data is 0.9-1.1 depending on the region.
I finally feel comfortable in saying the nation has turned a corner wrt getting the virus under control, well it did so two weeks ago and we're seeing the data for it now. Next week we should see further drops in the R and hopefully at or below 1 everywhere.
(I educate pharmacists at Uni, so I'm allowed to say this!)0 -
I would be very sceptical of those sort of Chinese whispers for exactly that reason.turbotubbs said:
Sorry to be thick but that seems ambiguous! Done and dusted = no good OR done and dusted = ready to go?isam said:
My Dad heard from his Gardening client, whose daughter is Head of Covid at a hospital, that the vaccine is all done and dustedMaxPB said:National calculated R from the ONS data is 0.9-1.1 depending on the region.
I finally feel comfortable in saying the nation has turned a corner wrt getting the virus under control, well it did so two weeks ago and we're seeing the data for it now. Next week we should see further drops in the R and hopefully at or below 1 everywhere.0 -
Everyone needs a hobby.Sean_F said:
It makes a change from wanting to pull down statues.isam said:How to accept defeat and move on
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1324741179427246086?s=20
He is seriously …...odd.0 -
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That assumes the US rejoins the Trans Pacific Partnership. (Which would be amazing for the world, if it happened.)Time_to_Leave said:
Why? There’ll be no US trade deal, which was always going to be the case, but with the advantage of not even being offered a shit one by Trump we’re pressured to accept. The grand strategy is, presumably, to become part of the Pacific deal so that ultimately we get the US through that route by default.ping said:
Adonis is an arse, but there now a serious problem re: brexit, no?isam said:How to accept democratic defeat
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1324741179427246086?s=200 -
AK Rep is 1.03 and good value at it. Hasn't been blue since LBJ.Sean_F said:
I think it is vanishingly improbable that Biden has won Alaska.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Have you considered that the pattern of mail in votes in Alaska might not follow the same pattern as elsewhere, at least to the same extreme of polarisation that we've seen?alex_ said:Anyone know when they’re bothering to start counting the mail in votes in Alaska and begin the long March towards Biden taking that one as well?
Alaska is rather different to the rest of the US, especially in November, and I suspect they might do things differently there. eg. What if there are places where you can ONLY vote by mail?0 -
Trump now needs to average 63% of the remaining votes in Arizona if he is to win, having only got 52% in the latest batch.0
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Re. North Carolina and Alaska, here's from the 538 live blog. I don't think Alaska is over. Actually neither of them are entirely.
"You might be wondering about North Carolina and Alaska, two unprojected states that we haven’t heard a peep from in days. Well, there’s a good reason for that: Both states accept absentee ballots that arrive as late as next week, and they won’t provide any updates until Nov. 10 (in Alaska) and Nov. 12 or 13 (in North Carolina). In fact, Alaska hasn’t released any absentee-ballot results yet, so that state (and its surprisingly competitive Senate race) is still up in the air."
And whatever Thom Tillis thinks, he hasn't yet defeated Cal Cunningham for the Senate. The Alaska Senate race is also not a given.0 -
Don't forget Fairbanks.rcs1000 said:
Almost all the permanent Alaskan population is around Anchorage and Juneau, isn't it?Wulfrun_Phil said:
Have you considered that the pattern of mail in votes in Alaska might not follow the same pattern as elsewhere, at least to the same extreme of polarisation that we've seen?alex_ said:Anyone know when they’re bothering to start counting the mail in votes in Alaska and begin the long March towards Biden taking that one as well?
Alaska is rather different to the rest of the US, especially in November, and I suspect they might do things differently there. eg. What if there are places where you can ONLY vote by mail?
Mail in voting in AK doesn't even start until next week. The Senate race *might* be interesting, and the state is trending Blue, but I'd be very surprised if it didn't stay Red at the Presidential level.
Still, who the fuck knows. This election has thrown a ridiculous number of curve balls.
And there are a number of tiny settlements hundreds of miles from the next.
But yeah. It will stay Rep.0 -
That's reward free risk, and you could end up with your money tied up for two months.Drutt said:
AK Rep is 1.03 and good value at it. Hasn't been blue since LBJ.Sean_F said:
I think it is vanishingly improbable that Biden has won Alaska.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Have you considered that the pattern of mail in votes in Alaska might not follow the same pattern as elsewhere, at least to the same extreme of polarisation that we've seen?alex_ said:Anyone know when they’re bothering to start counting the mail in votes in Alaska and begin the long March towards Biden taking that one as well?
Alaska is rather different to the rest of the US, especially in November, and I suspect they might do things differently there. eg. What if there are places where you can ONLY vote by mail?
Sure, you'll probably win, but it's like picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer.1 -
Can't see Trump getting close to 60% of all those 220,000 left in AZ, but I do expect once it gets to a point where he clearly cant win there he will raise some spurious legal issue there. Regardless if Biden is heading for 306 Trump , at least for now is going to cry foul. Losing is bad enough, for him losing to Biden is humiliating so he's just going to keep making more and more erratic claimsbigjohnowls said:
Yep even the 1.06 free money would be worth it apart from the likely settlement dateOnboardG1 said:
Worse for Trump that drop was some ratio of late-mail in (strongly R, closer to 15 points) and on the day drop off. That suggests on the day was very D leaning. Biden could actually extend his lead in the next set of drops.Stocky said:
Down to 1.05 with Bf nowOnboardG1 said:https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324744211531403265
Trump only 52% in latest Maricopa. Not good enough. GG.0 -
Biden now 9000 ahead in PA.0
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Didn't you tell me that about Georgia when I said Biden was going to win it?Sean_F said:
I think it is vanishingly improbable that Biden has won Alaska.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Have you considered that the pattern of mail in votes in Alaska might not follow the same pattern as elsewhere, at least to the same extreme of polarisation that we've seen?alex_ said:Anyone know when they’re bothering to start counting the mail in votes in Alaska and begin the long March towards Biden taking that one as well?
Alaska is rather different to the rest of the US, especially in November, and I suspect they might do things differently there. eg. What if there are places where you can ONLY vote by mail?
(Apologies if it wasn't you.)
Alaska is NOT a given and neither is it "vanishingly improbable".0 -
And the 140k batch still worse for him.Fysics_Teacher said:Trump now needs to average 63% of the remaining votes in Arizona if he is to win, having only got 52% in the latest batch.
Wouldnt surprise me if the final margin was 30k or more0 -
I don't think there are 220k left in AZ, I think it's more like 140k. (Although that may exclude provisional ballots.)Mal557 said:
Can't see Trump getting close to 60% of all those 220,000 left in AZ, but I do expect once it gets to a point where he clearly cant win there he will raise some spurious legal issue there. Regardless if Biden is heading for 306 Trump , at least for now is going to cry foul. Losing is bad enough, for him losing to Biden is humiliating so he's just going to keep making more and more erratic claimsbigjohnowls said:
Yep even the 1.06 free money would be worth it apart from the likely settlement dateOnboardG1 said:
Worse for Trump that drop was some ratio of late-mail in (strongly R, closer to 15 points) and on the day drop off. That suggests on the day was very D leaning. Biden could actually extend his lead in the next set of drops.Stocky said:
Down to 1.05 with Bf nowOnboardG1 said:https://mobile.twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1324744211531403265
Trump only 52% in latest Maricopa. Not good enough. GG.0 -
Defying democracy isn't a good look.rcs1000 said:
Everyone needs a hobby.Sean_F said:
It makes a change from wanting to pull down statues.isam said:How to accept defeat and move on
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1324741179427246086?s=20
He is seriously …...odd.
He doesn't really have a Philadelphia fortress within Arizona.Fysics_Teacher said:Trump now needs to average 63% of the remaining votes in Arizona if he is to win, having only got 52% in the latest batch.
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Alaska is weird. We have some equipment there supporting the oil industry (I get to go to the middle of nowhere to upgrade it at some point). Almost none of the oil guys live in state, but it’s very important for the local economy. On the other hand the Alaskans can be very environmentally minded. It’s probably the most ideologically unique state in the union, which is how Lisa Murkowski can win as a write in.dixiedean said:
Don't forget Fairbanks.rcs1000 said:
Almost all the permanent Alaskan population is around Anchorage and Juneau, isn't it?Wulfrun_Phil said:
Have you considered that the pattern of mail in votes in Alaska might not follow the same pattern as elsewhere, at least to the same extreme of polarisation that we've seen?alex_ said:Anyone know when they’re bothering to start counting the mail in votes in Alaska and begin the long March towards Biden taking that one as well?
Alaska is rather different to the rest of the US, especially in November, and I suspect they might do things differently there. eg. What if there are places where you can ONLY vote by mail?
Mail in voting in AK doesn't even start until next week. The Senate race *might* be interesting, and the state is trending Blue, but I'd be very surprised if it didn't stay Red at the Presidential level.
Still, who the fuck knows. This election has thrown a ridiculous number of curve balls.0 -
Georgia hasn't been blue since 1992 ... those odds are terrible value.Drutt said:
AK Rep is 1.03 and good value at it. Hasn't been blue since LBJ.Sean_F said:
I think it is vanishingly improbable that Biden has won Alaska.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Have you considered that the pattern of mail in votes in Alaska might not follow the same pattern as elsewhere, at least to the same extreme of polarisation that we've seen?alex_ said:Anyone know when they’re bothering to start counting the mail in votes in Alaska and begin the long March towards Biden taking that one as well?
Alaska is rather different to the rest of the US, especially in November, and I suspect they might do things differently there. eg. What if there are places where you can ONLY vote by mail?0 -
Biden and the Senate candidate are running neck and neckrcs1000 said:
Almost all the permanent Alaskan population is around Anchorage and Juneau, isn't it?Wulfrun_Phil said:
Have you considered that the pattern of mail in votes in Alaska might not follow the same pattern as elsewhere, at least to the same extreme of polarisation that we've seen?alex_ said:Anyone know when they’re bothering to start counting the mail in votes in Alaska and begin the long March towards Biden taking that one as well?
Alaska is rather different to the rest of the US, especially in November, and I suspect they might do things differently there. eg. What if there are places where you can ONLY vote by mail?
Mail in voting in AK doesn't even start until next week. The Senate race *might* be interesting, and the state is trending Blue, but I'd be very surprised if it didn't stay Red at the Presidential level.
Still, who the fuck knows. This election has thrown a ridiculous number of curve balls.0 -
I wonder if Trump being behind by thousands (and more) in several key states will restrict the fervour of the post-election litigation. It's so unlikely to change the overall result that I suspect some key allies will step back from supporting/funding some of it.1
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If the Dems end up with a 1 seat majority in the Senate with a double run off in Georgia to come I will laugh my cock off.Mysticrose said:Re. North Carolina and Alaska, here's from the 538 live blog. I don't think Alaska is over. Actually neither of them are entirely.
"You might be wondering about North Carolina and Alaska, two unprojected states that we haven’t heard a peep from in days. Well, there’s a good reason for that: Both states accept absentee ballots that arrive as late as next week, and they won’t provide any updates until Nov. 10 (in Alaska) and Nov. 12 or 13 (in North Carolina). In fact, Alaska hasn’t released any absentee-ballot results yet, so that state (and its surprisingly competitive Senate race) is still up in the air."
And whatever Thom Tillis thinks, he hasn't yet defeated Cal Cunningham for the Senate. The Alaska Senate race is also not a given.1 -
Is it me, or has Nate Cohn been a better analyser than Nate Silver this election? (At least on the night and subsequent days.)
They get super kudos for having GA as a 56% Dem chance on their needle when it was at about 9s on Betfair.3
