The WH2020 count goes on with still no sign of a resolution – politicalbetting.com
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Whether one supports its objective or not, that it requires explanation that it does not mean what a lot people would think it means, shows how bad a slogan it is. And complaints about it being misrepresented from its supporters fall on deaf ears, since while you cannot stop opponents misrepresenting ideas, you don't have to make it so easy for them.not_on_fire said:
Defund the police was an incredibly stupid and misleading slogan to adoptYokes said:
Actually that's a gross oversimplification typical of the idiocy this side of the water. Abigail Spanberger the Democrat Congresswoman has been very clear that the protests move into Defund the Police talk has cost the House Dems serious problems. She should know.Alistair said:
In shock news people who voted for the racist didn't like anti-racist protests.Andy_JS said:
It's not racist if you are a citizen and others are demanding the police effectively don't get funding ie dont operate, its perfectly understandable that MANY have a problem with it.0 -
Where do you see California as high as 75% counted? I'm seeing estimates at 66% or something, but I'm also assuming that's based on 'old' numbers (the same way other states were) and that turnout will be higher there the same way it is elsewhere. Essentially I'm thinking that Biden should get above 52% when all's counted - but no-one will believe the number of votes that are still to come from Cali (cf 4 years ago)rcs1000 said:
California is only 75% counted, so you need to add another 1.5% or so to Biden's vote lead. I think he'll end up a little over 4% ahead.stodge said:Evening all
Have tried to follow the twists and turns during the day and hopefully plenty have made a quick profit (or even a slow one).
Can Biden take all of Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Georgia? Unlikely but not impossible. That would end up 322-216 which would look much more comfortable than the base numbers suggest. Currently, a 2.1% lead for Clinton has become a 2.7% for Biden so that's a 0.3% swing but in terms of ECV a considerable shift potentially.
Basically, the Democrats and Republicans have 20 "safe" states (including DC for the blues).
Of the remaining 11 "marginal" states, Trump won 10 last time (the exception being Nevada). So far, Biden has flipped Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona and to win the other three he lost last time, would leave the Democrats with seven and the Republicans with four.
As an aside, does anyone know who would be Secretary of State in a Biden administration?0 -
James Carville predicting Biden 307 ecvs0
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And a 90/10 outcome versus the roughly 50/50 known view. I'd not suggest for a moment that there is wrong-doing, but its awkward.IanB2 said:
In some states the mail in is the main vote.Omnium said:
I have no view on how people should vote in the US. If part of the process produces a radically different outcome to the main vote then I think its sensible to question it.not_on_fire said:
Why are you comfortable with most of the Election Day vote being mostly Republican, but not the mail votes being mostly Democratic?Omnium said:
I'm not being silly, and it does make me uncomfortable. If the votes thus cast looked roughly like the votes cast otherwise then fair enough, but they don't.Mysticrose said:
FFS.Omnium said:These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
Mail ballot was a totally appropriate and legal way of voting particularly in this nasty pandemic.
Don't be silly.
Thanks for calling me "silly" though - made me smile.0 -
It's just a crazy way to count votes. In the UK, all postal votes are mixed with polling station ballots after the verification stage and all counted together.Omnium said:These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
I'm sure they're fine, and Trump's noise otherwise isn't worth anything, but nonetheless digging out very heavily biased packages of votes after the polls have closed just feels ugly.
I'd like to see voting rather more heavily controlled in the UK in this light. Electoral fraud should have some insanely nasty penalty too.0 -
85,000 to 90,000 ballots in Philly still to be counted. Currently running 4:1 for Biden.0
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Trumpsters have to take whatever little consolation they can find.Anabobazina said:EPG said:
Another massive loss for Biden/Pelosi. Another huge win for Trump and Boris.BluestBlue said:
And so the self-indulgent actions of the 'progressives' cost the Democrats the overwhelming victory they needed to have any chance of putting their progressive policies into practice. Nice job, idiots!Andy_JS said:
Suspect some on PB aren't quite aware of what a gigantic, sweet victory this will be – for Biden and the whole world.0 -
A final thought from me for this evening...
Were he to lose now, Trump would join the Ex-Presidents Club which currently has Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, George W Bush and Barack Obama as members.
I wonder how he will get on with them and they with him - after all, when the Trump Presidential Library & Casino is opened, they will doubtless attend.
Presumably he will attend the opening of the Barack Obama Presidential Center.0 -
I think both you and the PB Tories are right, when it comes to this topic.Anabobazina said:EPG said:
Another massive loss for Biden/Pelosi. Another huge win for Trump and Boris.BluestBlue said:
And so the self-indulgent actions of the 'progressives' cost the Democrats the overwhelming victory they needed to have any chance of putting their progressive policies into practice. Nice job, idiots!Andy_JS said:
Suspect some on PB aren't quite aware of what a gigantic, sweet victory this will be – for Biden and the whole world.1 -
Just don’t hook up with Ann Selzer - that could be the end of election fun/betting!Alistair said:
THAT'S WHAT I SAID YESTERDAYMysticrose said:https://twitter.com/mattschaar/status/1324438959410286593?s=20
Sorry if that has been shared already. Was watching episode 2 of The Queen's Gambit.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3099018/#Comment_3099018
Why they are wasting time counting votes when I can just call it I don't know.0 -
And overall early voters were the main vote.IanB2 said:
In some states the mail in is the main vote.Omnium said:
I have no view on how people should vote in the US. If part of the process produces a radically different outcome to the main vote then I think its sensible to question it.not_on_fire said:
Why are you comfortable with most of the Election Day vote being mostly Republican, but not the mail votes being mostly Democratic?Omnium said:
I'm not being silly, and it does make me uncomfortable. If the votes thus cast looked roughly like the votes cast otherwise then fair enough, but they don't.Mysticrose said:
FFS.Omnium said:These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
Mail ballot was a totally appropriate and legal way of voting particularly in this nasty pandemic.
Don't be silly.
Thanks for calling me "silly" though - made me smile.0 -
There's frankly no doubt now that Biden will win Pennsylvania.
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Why surprising? Stability and somebody sane in the White House; isn't that the kind of thing the markets like?lockhimup said:American stock market up about 7% since it became clear that Biden would win.
Surprising.
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Trump lead in PA below 100K0
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Benpointer said:
Is here a public holiday in the US today? Everything seems to have stopped.
I wonder what the Donald J Trump Presidential Library will contain?stodge said:A final thought from me for this evening...
Were he to lose now, Trump would join the Ex-Presidents Club which currently has Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, George W Bush and Barack Obama as members.
I wonder how he will get on with them and they with him - after all, when the Trump Presidential Library & Casino is opened, they will doubtless attend.
Presumably he will attend the opening of the Barack Obama Presidential Center.0 -
When one party’s supporters are petrified about a virus that the other side thinks is a hoax, not so much. Especially as the overall figures from those city precincts aren’t wildly different from the percentages Clinton got.Omnium said:
And a 90/10 outcome versus the roughly 50/50 known view. I'd not suggest for a moment that there is wrong-doing, but its awkward.IanB2 said:
In some states the mail in is the main vote.Omnium said:
I have no view on how people should vote in the US. If part of the process produces a radically different outcome to the main vote then I think its sensible to question it.not_on_fire said:
Why are you comfortable with most of the Election Day vote being mostly Republican, but not the mail votes being mostly Democratic?Omnium said:
I'm not being silly, and it does make me uncomfortable. If the votes thus cast looked roughly like the votes cast otherwise then fair enough, but they don't.Mysticrose said:
FFS.Omnium said:These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
Mail ballot was a totally appropriate and legal way of voting particularly in this nasty pandemic.
Don't be silly.
Thanks for calling me "silly" though - made me smile.0 -
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We do it here when there are multiple elections on a single day. In 2014 I voted in the Mayor, EU and local elections and all three of them had separate ballot papers and you put them in different boxes. Americans can't be so stupid that they can't figure out how to do that.kle4 said:
Yes, I find the 'there are lots of votes on a ballot' an unconvincing excuse since even if the separate presidential ballot idea is unreasonable or unncessary there are as you say there are others things one can easily do to speed things up.MaxPB said:
Hire more people or have a pencil, paper and person approach for the presidential ballot and do the other ones with the machines.Alistair said:
There are more than a dozen votes in an individual ballot.MaxPB said:
A person can go much faster and people are cheap and temporary to hire.Alistair said:
The mail ballot machines can do 750 ballots an hour I have read. So depending on the number of machines... A really long time.Benpointer said:
Seriously, how long does it take to count 11,300 votes?DougSeal said:
America has a lot to learn from us about conducting elections.
This is just farcical. The US is supposed to be a first world country and they can't even count the votes of the most important election they have every four years.0 -
Nevertheless, you are betraying your own party, as you keep telling me that the SCons are one and the same as your mob in Essex.HYUFD said:
Greens and Trots may vote Labour at Westminster level, for Holyrood constituency seats they will always vote SNP.Carnyx said:
FPT:HYUFD said:
The Greens are irrelevant in constituency seats, they get almost all their votes on the list. The hard left socialists who vote Yes will also vote SNP on the constituency vote but socialist on the list so neither can be won over by SLab at the constituency seat level.Carnyx said:
Hmm. You're still forgetting the Greens, and the folk who tend to vote socialist but Yes. And the Edinburgh constituencies at least can be very mixed indeed socially. I'd want to see more hard evidencve that tac tical voting wouild work when it has not worked before for anyone other than Ian Murray - who has a very, erm, distinctive attitude in his advising people how to vote, or not vote, for the SNP. But plenty of time yet.HYUFD said:
No, the votes Labour would get from the SNP are pretty much at a maximum the 7% who voted No in 2014 and are now voting SNP to take them from 45% to 52%, otherwise the combined Tory and LD vote is on 26% and outside of rural Scotland and the posher parts of Edinburgh and Aberdeen and the very poshest parts of suburban Glasgow every Scottish constituency seat is a straight SNP v SLab fight.Carnyx said:
On those figures, SCUP is already getting confined to the Brexiter and Unionist bitter-enders, and the LDs to the shy Tories and the special constituencies. The potentyial Labour votes are pretty much all in the SNP, Greens or LDs - and fewer of those in a FPTP (forget Holyrood for now). Ian Murray is sui generis; nobody else in SLAB pulled off that trick last time, admittedly under Mr Corbyn - but then nobody seriously believed Mr Corbyn would win anyway, so it was safe to vote for Mr Murray and co. Now Mr Starmer is a far greater existential threat to the Tories.HYUFD said:
SLab will pick up near zero Yes voters in Scotland, to win seats from the SNP they have to win Tory and LD Unionist tactical votes in the central belt.Carnyx said:
Yet if Mr Starmer has said he's open to indyref 2, precisely in order to peel off those pro-indy but previously labour voters ...HYUFD said:
That also suggests they could pick up some SNP constituency seats in the central belt next year with Tory and LD tactical votesCorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1324371433984790530
Labour potentially could come second in Scotland with some work
Starmer also said indyref2 was not needed soon he only did not rule out the possibility if the SNP won a majority next year but if SLab won seats from the SNP next year then the SNP would lose their majority at Holyrood and that would not apply anyway
Therefore SLab has to win over tactical votes from the Tories and LDs in those seats, mainly in the central belt, to make gains
Apart from Edinburgh West which is a LD v SNP battle and Edinburgh Central which is Ruth Davidson's seat I would agree every Edinburgh seat too at Holyrood (and indeed Westminster) is an SNP v SLab battle where SLab also has to win Unionist tactical votes.
Murray has shown the way which is why he has a stonking 22% majority in Edinburgh South and is the only SLab MP, other SLab candidates must follow his lead and start appealing to Tories and LDs
You're still neglecting the point that there is a lot of tactical voting already thanks to the Greens and Trots (which admittedly could go either way for Labour) - compare Holyrood and Westminster votes (as indeed you imply).
And, erm, not to be unkind, but as an easily identifiable Conservative Party official, should you really be publicly promoting voting for Labour, at a time when having the Labour Party candidates appeal to Tory and LD voters is completely what you do not want UK-wide?
In England and Wales I would of course only advocate voting Tory as Labour or the LDs are the Tories main opponents, in Scotland however the SNP are the Tories main opponents and saving the Union the Tories main cause so outside of rural Scotland and a few posh urban seats where I would advocate voting Tory at the constituency level for most Holyrood constutuencies it makes sense as a Unionist to back voting SLab in central belt seats to beat the SNP and Tory on the list0 -
I wish it could, I feel ill at the site of that.Theuniondivvie said:https://twitter.com/GerryHassan/status/1324441351208030211?s=20
SNP OVERALL MAJORITY: 11 SEATS;
PRO-INDY MAJORITY: 31 SEATS.
Nothing a little SLab/SCon/SLD tactical voting can't sort, I'm sure.0 -
At last the PA lead goes below 100k - now 97,9000
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He's calling ME2 for Biden??MikeSmithson said:James Carville predicting Biden 307 ecvs
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Melania's divorce papers?not_on_fire said:Benpointer said:Is here a public holiday in the US today? Everything seems to have stopped.
I wonder what the Donald J Trump Presidential Library will contain?stodge said:A final thought from me for this evening...
Were he to lose now, Trump would join the Ex-Presidents Club which currently has Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, George W Bush and Barack Obama as members.
I wonder how he will get on with them and they with him - after all, when the Trump Presidential Library & Casino is opened, they will doubtless attend.
Presumably he will attend the opening of the Barack Obama Presidential Center.0 -
I don't see how you can get to 307 from here?MikeSmithson said:James Carville predicting Biden 307 ecvs
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Yes, I find it hard to think that the look of these votes is wrong, when there is a plausible reason for the disparity. And while you have to make sure the votes arriving after the polls were posted in time, and I think it a dumb rule, rules are rules and it is not wrong to follow them. Trump voters could avail themselves of the same methods.Malmesbury said:
The President told his supporters that mail in ballots were Evul and Wrong (apart from his own). This caused many of his supporters not to vote by mail in ballot.Omnium said:
I'm not being silly, and it does make me uncomfortable. If the votes thus cast looked roughly like the votes cast otherwise then fair enough, but they don't.Mysticrose said:
FFS.Omnium said:These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
Mail ballot was a totally appropriate and legal way of voting particularly in this nasty pandemic.
Don't be silly.
Thanks for calling me "silly" though - made me smile.0 -
There is a press conference from the Secretary of State in PA within this hour.
I suspect this could be it. They must know by now that what's left will put their boy over the top.0 -
MikeSmithson said:
James Carville predicting Biden 307 ecvs</blockquote
Presumably he means 3060 -
They’d be awash in different papers; indeed there probably aren’t enough distinct coloursMaxPB said:
We do it here when there are multiple elections on a single day. In 2014 I voted in the Mayor, EU and local elections and all three of them had separate ballot papers and you put them in different boxes. Americans can't be so stupid that they can't figure out how to do that.kle4 said:
Yes, I find the 'there are lots of votes on a ballot' an unconvincing excuse since even if the separate presidential ballot idea is unreasonable or unncessary there are as you say there are others things one can easily do to speed things up.MaxPB said:
Hire more people or have a pencil, paper and person approach for the presidential ballot and do the other ones with the machines.Alistair said:
There are more than a dozen votes in an individual ballot.MaxPB said:
A person can go much faster and people are cheap and temporary to hire.Alistair said:
The mail ballot machines can do 750 ballots an hour I have read. So depending on the number of machines... A really long time.Benpointer said:
Seriously, how long does it take to count 11,300 votes?DougSeal said:
America has a lot to learn from us about conducting elections.
This is just farcical. The US is supposed to be a first world country and they can't even count the votes of the most important election they have every four years.0 -
Gap down to five figures now in PA.0
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I believe it's to report on the amount of ballots still to count (CNN).Anabobazina said:There is a press conference from the Secretary of State in PA within this hour.
I suspect this could be it. They must know by now that what's left will put their boy over the top.
But Biden is clearly going to win PA0 -
ISP will be using that as their campaign graphic.Theuniondivvie said:https://twitter.com/GerryHassan/status/1324441351208030211?s=20
SNP OVERALL MAJORITY: 11 SEATS;
PRO-INDY MAJORITY: 31 SEATS.
Nothing a little SLab/SCon/SLD tactical voting can't sort, I'm sure.0 -
What if you include "don't knows"?Theuniondivvie said:twitter.com/GerryHassan/status/1324441351208030211?s=20
SNP OVERALL MAJORITY: 11 SEATS;
PRO-INDY MAJORITY: 31 SEATS.
Nothing a little SLab/SCon/SLD tactical voting can't sort, I'm sure.1 -
Why? Today (and yesterday) have shown the danger of an inconclusive election.kle4 said:
I wish it could, I feel ill at the site of that.Theuniondivvie said:https://twitter.com/GerryHassan/status/1324441351208030211?s=20
SNP OVERALL MAJORITY: 11 SEATS;
PRO-INDY MAJORITY: 31 SEATS.
Nothing a little SLab/SCon/SLD tactical voting can't sort, I'm sure.0 -
Very aggressive press conference from Trumps people in AZ0
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I mean to be fair they vote for everything down to their town councillor's tea lady's window cleaner so I do have a degree of sympathy.MaxPB said:
We do it here when there are multiple elections on a single day. In 2014 I voted in the Mayor, EU and local elections and all three of them had separate ballot papers and you put them in different boxes. Americans can't be so stupid that they can't figure out how to do that.kle4 said:
Yes, I find the 'there are lots of votes on a ballot' an unconvincing excuse since even if the separate presidential ballot idea is unreasonable or unncessary there are as you say there are others things one can easily do to speed things up.MaxPB said:
Hire more people or have a pencil, paper and person approach for the presidential ballot and do the other ones with the machines.Alistair said:
There are more than a dozen votes in an individual ballot.MaxPB said:
A person can go much faster and people are cheap and temporary to hire.Alistair said:
The mail ballot machines can do 750 ballots an hour I have read. So depending on the number of machines... A really long time.Benpointer said:
Seriously, how long does it take to count 11,300 votes?DougSeal said:
America has a lot to learn from us about conducting elections.
This is just farcical. The US is supposed to be a first world country and they can't even count the votes of the most important election they have every four years.0 -
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ISP, please who they?sarissa said:
ISP will be using that as their campaign graphic.Theuniondivvie said:https://twitter.com/GerryHassan/status/1324441351208030211?s=20
SNP OVERALL MAJORITY: 11 SEATS;
PRO-INDY MAJORITY: 31 SEATS.
Nothing a little SLab/SCon/SLD tactical voting can't sort, I'm sure.0 -
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Because the smallest states like WY, SD , etc all have 3 EVs, proportionally way more than CA and TX, etc.Casino_Royale said:
Hmm. I agree, but I don't like this representation of ECVs as clear/close/landslide.Anabobazina said:I'm starting to think this could be 306.
Looks to me that Biden will carry AZ, NV, PA and GA.
NC is possible (but unlikely) gravy.
306 isn't even close.
If Biden does that he will have done it with wafer thin margins in those states, except possibly PA which may be clearer, just as Trump did in 2016.
The truth is there isn't much in votes between getting 220-240 ECVs and 300-330 ECVs when you're narrowly contesting 5-6 states with wafer thin margins.0 -
The narrative may have been set by the order of the counts and declarations, though predicted in the red mirage warnings, but the final electoral vote and popular vote could show a convincing defeat of a sitting president? Bigger than 76 post watergate.MikeSmithson said:James Carville predicting Biden 307 ecvs
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Exactly. Pretending it is some add-on which can be set aside is part of the problem here. Eligible votes are eligible votes however they are cast, and the way people voted being one way or another is not evidence it must be dodgy.Anabobazina said:
produces a radically different outcomeOmnium said:
I have no view on how people should vote in the US. If part of the process produces a radically different outcome to the main vote then I think its sensible to question it.not_on_fire said:
Why are you comfortable with most of the Election Day vote being mostly Republican, but not the mail votes being mostly Democratic?Omnium said:
I'm not being silly, and it does make me uncomfortable. If the votes thus cast looked roughly like the votes cast otherwise then fair enough, but they don't.Mysticrose said:
FFS.Omnium said:These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
Mail ballot was a totally appropriate and legal way of voting particularly in this nasty pandemic.
Don't be silly.
Thanks for calling me "silly" though - made me smile.
No, both contribute to the same outcome.-1 -
The Ragin' Cajun said that Biden would win and he had "never been more sure of anything in my life".RobertGiles said:MikeSmithson said:James Carville predicting Biden 307 ecvs
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Two final thoughts from me for this evening...
Were he to lose now, Trump would join the Ex-Presidents Club which currently has Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, George W Bush and Barack Obama as members.
I wonder how he will get on with them and they with him - after all, when the Trump Presidential Library & Casino is opened, they will doubtless attend.
Presumably he will attend the opening of the Barack Obama Presidential Center.
Second, Biden, were he to win, would be emulating George HW Bush and Richard Nixon as going from VP to winning an election in their own right.
Each would have done it differently - Bush followed on directly from Reagan and lost in 1992. Nixon lost in 1960, won in 1968 and 1972 and resigned in 1974.
Doesn't augur well for Biden, does it ?0 -
Try to work out a distribution that gives you these outcomes. I can tell you that the model will look wrong.IanB2 said:
When one party’s supporters are petrified about a virus that the other side thinks is a hoax, not so much. Especially as the overall figures from those city precincts aren’t wildly different from the percentages Clinton got.Omnium said:
And a 90/10 outcome versus the roughly 50/50 known view. I'd not suggest for a moment that there is wrong-doing, but its awkward.IanB2 said:
In some states the mail in is the main vote.Omnium said:
I have no view on how people should vote in the US. If part of the process produces a radically different outcome to the main vote then I think its sensible to question it.not_on_fire said:
Why are you comfortable with most of the Election Day vote being mostly Republican, but not the mail votes being mostly Democratic?Omnium said:
I'm not being silly, and it does make me uncomfortable. If the votes thus cast looked roughly like the votes cast otherwise then fair enough, but they don't.Mysticrose said:
FFS.Omnium said:These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
Mail ballot was a totally appropriate and legal way of voting particularly in this nasty pandemic.
Don't be silly.
Thanks for calling me "silly" though - made me smile.
The explanation has to be that the Dems are just getting their postal vote mobilised in a huge way, and that there's a crazy bias. I believe it because that's what we're seeing, but you'll have to forgive me if it feels a bit wrong.0 -
Don't forget a 4-4.25% vote difference means that Biden got almost a tenth more votes than Trump. That's a bigger margin than Obama-Romney.Casino_Royale said:
Hmm. I agree, but I don't like this representation of ECVs as clear/close/landslide.Anabobazina said:I'm starting to think this could be 306.
Looks to me that Biden will carry AZ, NV, PA and GA.
NC is possible (but unlikely) gravy.
306 isn't even close.
If Biden does that he will have done it with wafer thin margins in those states, except possibly PA which may be clearer, just as Trump did in 2016.
The truth is there isn't much in votes between getting 220-240 ECVs and 300-330 ECVs when you're narrowly contesting 5-6 states with wafer thin margins.0 -
I was given these figures about an hour ago:justin124 said:
The final result took days to emerge back in 2016.Mysticrose said:
Nevada announced a short while ago that their result will take days.numbertwelve said:
It's not like we're choosing the leader of the free world or anything here guys.MaxPB said:NYT saying NV not counting any more votes until noon tomorrow. Are they actually having a laugh?
I find it odd that some big states - Florida- Texas - Virginia - are able to count at a similar speed to what we are familiar with in the UK and elsewhere ,yet others - Pennsylvania - Georgia - take days to arrive at a clear result.
As far as I can tell, there are 5 states that have counted less than 80% of their vote. AK 47%, NJ 67%, MD, 70%, CA 74%, MS 77%. None of those are remotely competitive states. Then there are places like NY on 81%.1 -
Some of the candidates clearly ahead of their time with the mask wearing.not_on_fire said:3 -
I can see a situation in GA where, if it is still contested about the actual votes counted and it is literally down to hundreds of votes, the state legislature votes for its own board of electors.Casino_Royale said:
Hmm. I agree, but I don't like this representation of ECVs as clear/close/landslide.Anabobazina said:I'm starting to think this could be 306.
Looks to me that Biden will carry AZ, NV, PA and GA.
NC is possible (but unlikely) gravy.
306 isn't even close.
If Biden does that he will have done it with wafer thin margins in those states, except possibly PA which may be clearer, just as Trump did in 2016.
The truth is there isn't much in votes between getting 220-240 ECVs and 300-330 ECVs when you're narrowly contesting 5-6 states with wafer thin margins.0 -
I think @HYUFD posted a really interesting poll of different nations' views on Trump vs Biden. IIRC Biden was winning by huge margins in pretty much every major economy.WhisperingOracle said:
I think both you and the PB Tories are right, when it comes to this topic.Anabobazina said:EPG said:
Another massive loss for Biden/Pelosi. Another huge win for Trump and Boris.BluestBlue said:
And so the self-indulgent actions of the 'progressives' cost the Democrats the overwhelming victory they needed to have any chance of putting their progressive policies into practice. Nice job, idiots!Andy_JS said:
Suspect some on PB aren't quite aware of what a gigantic, sweet victory this will be – for Biden and the whole world.1 -
WHY ISN'T THE EAGLE WEARING A POPPY?!!!
https://twitter.com/AndrewRosindell/status/1323824097973964800?s=201 -
Biden (or Harris if he doesn’t stand) will certainly have a tough fight for re-election in 2024 as the economic damage from COVID plays outstodge said:Two final thoughts from me for this evening...
Were he to lose now, Trump would join the Ex-Presidents Club which currently has Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, George W Bush and Barack Obama as members.
I wonder how he will get on with them and they with him - after all, when the Trump Presidential Library & Casino is opened, they will doubtless attend.
Presumably he will attend the opening of the Barack Obama Presidential Center.
Second, Biden, were he to win, would be emulating George HW Bush and Richard Nixon as going from VP to winning an election in their own right.
Each would have done it differently - Bush followed on directly from Reagan and lost in 1992. Nixon lost in 1960, won in 1968 and 1972 and resigned in 1974.
Doesn't augur well for Biden, does it ?0 -
Larry Sabato, professor who predicted Biden landslide, now calls for ‘redesign’ of polling
Fox News0 -
Fox live footage from NV suggests a few people are still fiddling about counting votes in Clark County0
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I don't trust Trump to show for any of the usual "ex Presidents" events. I strongly doubt he will attend the Biden inauguration.stodge said:Two final thoughts from me for this evening...
Were he to lose now, Trump would join the Ex-Presidents Club which currently has Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, George W Bush and Barack Obama as members.
I wonder how he will get on with them and they with him - after all, when the Trump Presidential Library & Casino is opened, they will doubtless attend.
Presumably he will attend the opening of the Barack Obama Presidential Center.
Second, Biden, were he to win, would be emulating George HW Bush and Richard Nixon as going from VP to winning an election in their own right.
Each would have done it differently - Bush followed on directly from Reagan and lost in 1992. Nixon lost in 1960, won in 1968 and 1972 and resigned in 1974.
Doesn't augur well for Biden, does it ?0 -
Wiki states Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah and Washington hold elections almost entirely by mail.IanB2 said:
In some states the mail in is the main vote.Omnium said:
I have no view on how people should vote in the US. If part of the process produces a radically different outcome to the main vote then I think its sensible to question it.not_on_fire said:
Why are you comfortable with most of the Election Day vote being mostly Republican, but not the mail votes being mostly Democratic?Omnium said:
I'm not being silly, and it does make me uncomfortable. If the votes thus cast looked roughly like the votes cast otherwise then fair enough, but they don't.Mysticrose said:
FFS.Omnium said:These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
Mail ballot was a totally appropriate and legal way of voting particularly in this nasty pandemic.
Don't be silly.
Thanks for calling me "silly" though - made me smile.0 -
Now, be fair. There was a joke candidate in this election, as in the photo.not_on_fire said:
But unlike in the picture, he wasn’t surrounded by people in fancy dress.6 -
No different than Trumps victory though? And it didn’t stop him strutting around like he owned the place, accepted by everyone as powerful and legitimate.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Because the smallest states like WY, SD , etc all have 3 EVs, proportionally way more than CA and TX, etc.Casino_Royale said:
Hmm. I agree, but I don't like this representation of ECVs as clear/close/landslide.Anabobazina said:I'm starting to think this could be 306.
Looks to me that Biden will carry AZ, NV, PA and GA.
NC is possible (but unlikely) gravy.
306 isn't even close.
If Biden does that he will have done it with wafer thin margins in those states, except possibly PA which may be clearer, just as Trump did in 2016.
The truth is there isn't much in votes between getting 220-240 ECVs and 300-330 ECVs when you're narrowly contesting 5-6 states with wafer thin margins.0 -
I agree, my point was agreeing that even if they don't want to do that, it shouldn't take so long as there are other things you can do.MaxPB said:
We do it here when there are multiple elections on a single day. In 2014 I voted in the Mayor, EU and local elections and all three of them had separate ballot papers and you put them in different boxes. Americans can't be so stupid that they can't figure out how to do that.kle4 said:
Yes, I find the 'there are lots of votes on a ballot' an unconvincing excuse since even if the separate presidential ballot idea is unreasonable or unncessary there are as you say there are others things one can easily do to speed things up.MaxPB said:
Hire more people or have a pencil, paper and person approach for the presidential ballot and do the other ones with the machines.Alistair said:
There are more than a dozen votes in an individual ballot.MaxPB said:
A person can go much faster and people are cheap and temporary to hire.Alistair said:
The mail ballot machines can do 750 ballots an hour I have read. So depending on the number of machines... A really long time.Benpointer said:
Seriously, how long does it take to count 11,300 votes?DougSeal said:
America has a lot to learn from us about conducting elections.
This is just farcical. The US is supposed to be a first world country and they can't even count the votes of the most important election they have every four years.0 -
Biden live in a few minutes0
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All Dem states ᵉˣᶜᵉᵖᵗ ᵁᵗᵃʰ ... SUSPICIOUSkle4 said:
Wiki states Colorado, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah and Washington hold elections almost entirely by mail.IanB2 said:
In some states the mail in is the main vote.Omnium said:
I have no view on how people should vote in the US. If part of the process produces a radically different outcome to the main vote then I think its sensible to question it.not_on_fire said:
Why are you comfortable with most of the Election Day vote being mostly Republican, but not the mail votes being mostly Democratic?Omnium said:
I'm not being silly, and it does make me uncomfortable. If the votes thus cast looked roughly like the votes cast otherwise then fair enough, but they don't.Mysticrose said:
FFS.Omnium said:These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
Mail ballot was a totally appropriate and legal way of voting particularly in this nasty pandemic.
Don't be silly.
Thanks for calling me "silly" though - made me smile.0 -
Why is Patrick Vallance giving a speech?not_on_fire said:3 -
Fingers crossed the snow drifts are heavily Democratic in Alaska.No_Offence_Alan said:
I was given these figures about an hour ago:justin124 said:
The final result took days to emerge back in 2016.Mysticrose said:
Nevada announced a short while ago that their result will take days.numbertwelve said:
It's not like we're choosing the leader of the free world or anything here guys.MaxPB said:NYT saying NV not counting any more votes until noon tomorrow. Are they actually having a laugh?
I find it odd that some big states - Florida- Texas - Virginia - are able to count at a similar speed to what we are familiar with in the UK and elsewhere ,yet others - Pennsylvania - Georgia - take days to arrive at a clear result.
As far as I can tell, there are 5 states that have counted less than 80% of their vote. AK 47%, NJ 67%, MD, 70%, CA 74%, MS 77%. None of those are remotely competitive states. Then there are places like NY on 81%.0 -
Looks to me like the eagle is losing the fight in that picture.Theuniondivvie said:WHY ISN'T THE EAGLE WEARING A POPPY?!!!
https://twitter.com/AndrewRosindell/status/1323824097973964800?s=200 -
Strikes me there’s a couple of candidates way ahead of the game on Covid precautionsnot_on_fire said:1 -
I'm happy that people will vote and support whoever they wish, it just upsets me who they do sometimes.Carnyx said:
Why? Today (and yesterday) have shown the danger of an inconclusive election.kle4 said:
I wish it could, I feel ill at the site of that.Theuniondivvie said:https://twitter.com/GerryHassan/status/1324441351208030211?s=20
SNP OVERALL MAJORITY: 11 SEATS;
PRO-INDY MAJORITY: 31 SEATS.
Nothing a little SLab/SCon/SLD tactical voting can't sort, I'm sure.0 -
This is the sort of thing that tends to confirm the Americanisation of parts of the Tory Party, via Brexit. Exceptionally few people outside America would normally consider Biden a communist ; in fact on certain issues his record is to the right of Johnson.Theuniondivvie said:WHY ISN'T THE EAGLE WEARING A POPPY?!!!
https://twitter.com/AndrewRosindell/status/1323824097973964800?s=201 -
Not one vote reported from GA for 3 to 4 hours now.0
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Biden to speak shortly0
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I think it's a bit of a comfort blanket for Omnium TBH.kle4 said:
Exactly. Pretending it is some add-on which can be set aside is part of the problem here. Eligible votes are eligible votes however they are cast, and the way people voted being one way or another is not evidence it must be dodgy.Anabobazina said:
produces a radically different outcomeOmnium said:
I have no view on how people should vote in the US. If part of the process produces a radically different outcome to the main vote then I think its sensible to question it.not_on_fire said:
Why are you comfortable with most of the Election Day vote being mostly Republican, but not the mail votes being mostly Democratic?Omnium said:
I'm not being silly, and it does make me uncomfortable. If the votes thus cast looked roughly like the votes cast otherwise then fair enough, but they don't.Mysticrose said:
FFS.Omnium said:These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
Mail ballot was a totally appropriate and legal way of voting particularly in this nasty pandemic.
Don't be silly.
Thanks for calling me "silly" though - made me smile.
No, both contribute to the same outcome.0 -
The Republicans have been holding a press conference in Arizona. Still very bullish about winning.0
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The state of that from a Tory MP. Boris should make him some kind of a ministerial ambassador to Biden for a laugh.Theuniondivvie said:WHY ISN'T THE EAGLE WEARING A POPPY?!!!
https://twitter.com/AndrewRosindell/status/1323824097973964800?s=201 -
If it came to that the 'right' thing to do would surely be to select 8 Rep and 8 Dem electors for GA.MrEd said:
I can see a situation in GA where, if it is still contested about the actual votes counted and it is literally down to hundreds of votes, the state legislature votes for its own board of electors.Casino_Royale said:
Hmm. I agree, but I don't like this representation of ECVs as clear/close/landslide.Anabobazina said:I'm starting to think this could be 306.
Looks to me that Biden will carry AZ, NV, PA and GA.
NC is possible (but unlikely) gravy.
306 isn't even close.
If Biden does that he will have done it with wafer thin margins in those states, except possibly PA which may be clearer, just as Trump did in 2016.
The truth is there isn't much in votes between getting 220-240 ECVs and 300-330 ECVs when you're narrowly contesting 5-6 states with wafer thin margins.
Won't happen of course.0 -
The only ex President Trump has ever got on with to any degree is surprisingly Jimmy Carter, likely probably joining him as the only 1 term Presidents in the ex Presidents club. Carter was for example the first ex President to accept an invite to Trump's inaugration.stodge said:Two final thoughts from me for this evening...
Were he to lose now, Trump would join the Ex-Presidents Club which currently has Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, George W Bush and Barack Obama as members.
I wonder how he will get on with them and they with him - after all, when the Trump Presidential Library & Casino is opened, they will doubtless attend.
Presumably he will attend the opening of the Barack Obama Presidential Center.
Second, Biden, were he to win, would be emulating George HW Bush and Richard Nixon as going from VP to winning an election in their own right.
Each would have done it differently - Bush followed on directly from Reagan and lost in 1992. Nixon lost in 1960, won in 1968 and 1972 and resigned in 1974.
Doesn't augur well for Biden, does it ?
Biden does have the advantage unlike Bush and Nixon though of starting afresh with a new mandate for his party, Nixon was running after 8 years of IKE in 1960 and Bush Snr after 12 years of his party in the White House in 1992, though he won in 1988.
Biden also does not seem as unscrupulous as Nixon, in fact he will likely be closer to Reagan, a genial if old President who has beaten an incumbent President after only 1 term of their party in the White House, in fact if confirmed Biden and Reagan will be the only 2 candidates to have achieved that almost unique feat in the last 100 years1 -
It should be a phone:isam said:
Ford only narrowly lost in 1976 and was a two term GOP President anyway.gealbhan said:
The narrative may have been set by the order of the counts and declarations, though predicted in the red mirage warnings, but the final electoral vote and popular vote could show a convincing defeat of a sitting president? Bigger than 76 post watergate.MikeSmithson said:James Carville predicting Biden 307 ecvs
The only one term party President was dismal Jimmy in 1980.
So Trump wont suffer the ignominy of worst defeat.0 -
They obviously haven't seen @rcs1000 predictionwilliamglenn said:The Republicans have been holding a press conference in Arizona. Still very bullish about winning.
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Who's the really weird-looking one right in the middle? Looks very dodgy.not_on_fire said:1 -
What do you expect from someone fascinated by flegs.....Theuniondivvie said:WHY ISN'T THE EAGLE WEARING A POPPY?!!!
https://twitter.com/AndrewRosindell/status/1323824097973964800?s=20
https://twitter.com/AndrewRosindell/status/1323836502191857664?s=200 -
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Reps claiming early and mail-in votes are invalid if the voter dies before thr election0
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Touch base with more local knowledge.rottenborough said:Larry Sabato, professor who predicted Biden landslide, now calls for ‘redesign’ of polling
Fox News0 -
It's a farce. Anyone would think they don't want to be the one to put Biden over the top!MikeL said:Not one vote reported from GA for 3 to 4 hours now.
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We need to be patient says Biden.
But no doubt that he has won he says.
Stay calm/0 -
Biden: keep calm and carry on0
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George Bush Sr was a one-termer?another_richard said:
It should be a phone:isam said:
Ford only narrowly lost in 1976 and was a two term GOP President anyway.gealbhan said:
The narrative may have been set by the order of the counts and declarations, though predicted in the red mirage warnings, but the final electoral vote and popular vote could show a convincing defeat of a sitting president? Bigger than 76 post watergate.MikeSmithson said:James Carville predicting Biden 307 ecvs
The only one term party President was dismal Jimmy in 1980.
So Trump wont suffer the ignominy of worst defeat.0 -
The moderates/centrists are mostly losing their jobs. That is the nature of being a moderate. The wonder is that people like Max Rose and Collin Peterson won seats as Democrats in 2018 at all. Peterson in particular held his seat 8-10 years longer than the other old-line conservative Democrats.Casino_Royale said:
Pelosi is about to lose her job, as she lost seats to the Republicans. So yes it was a loss.EPG said:
Another massive loss for Biden/Pelosi. Another huge win for Trump and Boris.BluestBlue said:
And so the self-indulgent actions of the 'progressives' cost the Democrats the overwhelming victory they needed to have any chance of putting their progressive policies into practice. Nice job, idiots!Andy_JS said:
And moderate and centrist Democrats are moving against her as a consequence:
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/524503-centrist-democrats-talk-leadership-changes-after-negative-election-results?amp#click=https://t.co/x1QzSgT7Jb0 -
Like that's going to swing any states.IanB2 said:Reps claiming early and mail-in votes are invalid if the voter dies before thr election
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Some very good and enlightening info, though he does make one error which annoys me, which is pulling out the 'because the Dems haven't won all they wanted, the premise of the conspiracies is absurd'. Many are very absurd, but you can have attempts to mess things about without doing it successfully enough (though I stress I do not think that has occurred).CarlottaVance said:Thread on "Fraud"
https://twitter.com/Ike_Saul/status/1324435797374808066?s=200 -
There are a lot of good Nevada meme on Twitter
https://twitter.com/snarkeigh/status/1324453365036814337?s=091 -
A load of DePiffle if you ask me...Northern_Al said:
Who's the really weird-looking one right in the middle? Looks very dodgy.not_on_fire said:0 -
For any MP to try and associate them with Soviet Communism like that is shameful.Jonathan said:
The state of that from a Tory MP. Boris should make him some kind of a ministerial ambassador to Biden for a laugh.Theuniondivvie said:WHY ISN'T THE EAGLE WEARING A POPPY?!!!
https://twitter.com/AndrewRosindell/status/1323824097973964800?s=200 -
Ford wasn't a two term President.another_richard said:
It should be a phone:isam said:
Ford only narrowly lost in 1976 and was a two term GOP President anyway.gealbhan said:
The narrative may have been set by the order of the counts and declarations, though predicted in the red mirage warnings, but the final electoral vote and popular vote could show a convincing defeat of a sitting president? Bigger than 76 post watergate.MikeSmithson said:James Carville predicting Biden 307 ecvs
The only one term party President was dismal Jimmy in 1980.
So Trump wont suffer the ignominy of worst defeat.0 -
In 1968 Kennedy then Johnson had been in power for 8 years.HYUFD said:
Biden does have the advantage unlike Bush and Nixon though of starting afresh with a new mandate for his party, IKE was running after 8 years of IKE in 1960 and Bush Snr after 12 years of his party in the White House in 1992, though he won in 1988.0 -
Kamala Harris has come in to 360. Perhaps some are expecting a very long count?0
