Have tried to follow the twists and turns during the day and hopefully plenty have made a quick profit (or even a slow one).
Can Biden take all of Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Georgia? Unlikely but not impossible. That would end up 322-216 which would look much more comfortable than the base numbers suggest. Currently, a 2.1% lead for Clinton has become a 2.7% for Biden so that's a 0.3% swing but in terms of ECV a considerable shift potentially.
Basically, the Democrats and Republicans have 20 "safe" states (including DC for the blues).
Of the remaining 11 "marginal" states, Trump won 10 last time (the exception being Nevada). So far, Biden has flipped Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona and to win the other three he lost last time, would leave the Democrats with seven and the Republicans with four.
As an aside, does anyone know who would be Secretary of State in a Biden administration?
California is only 75% counted, so you need to add another 1.5% or so to Biden's vote lead. I think he'll end up a little over 4% ahead.
And so the self-indulgent actions of the 'progressives' cost the Democrats the overwhelming victory they needed to have any chance of putting their progressive policies into practice. Nice job, idiots!
Another massive loss for Biden/Pelosi. Another huge win for Trump and Boris.
Sorry if that has been shared already. Was watching episode 2 of The Queen's Gambit.
The margin in Pennsylvania is not going to be particularly close.
About 200k.
If true, another polling oddity. PA was consistently tighter in the polls than either WI or MI but may end up being the most comfortable of the Midwest trio for Biden
In shock news people who voted for the racist didn't like anti-racist protests.
Actually that's a gross oversimplification typical of the idiocy this side of the water. Abigail Spanberger the Democrat Congresswoman has been very clear that the protests move into Defund the Police talk has cost the House Dems serious problems. She should know.
It's not racist if you are a citizen and others are demanding the police effectively don't get funding ie dont operate, its perfectly understandable that MANY have a problem with it.
Defund the police was an incredibly stupid and misleading slogan to adopt
Not a Dem policy or slogan though! Indeed Grandpa Joe spoke against it.
There are extremists on the Left as nutty as QAnon.
Have tried to follow the twists and turns during the day and hopefully plenty have made a quick profit (or even a slow one).
Can Biden take all of Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Georgia? Unlikely but not impossible. That would end up 322-216 which would look much more comfortable than the base numbers suggest. Currently, a 2.1% lead for Clinton has become a 2.7% for Biden so that's a 0.3% swing but in terms of ECV a considerable shift potentially.
Basically, the Democrats and Republicans have 20 "safe" states (including DC for the blues).
Of the remaining 11 "marginal" states, Trump won 10 last time (the exception being Nevada). So far, Biden has flipped Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona and to win the other three he lost last time, would leave the Democrats with seven and the Republicans with four.
As an aside, does anyone know who would be Secretary of State in a Biden administration?
Chris Murphy, Chris Coons, Susan Rice and Anthony Blinken are the frontrunners with Mitt Romney apparently given some consideration but a longshot
Sorry if that has been shared already. Was watching episode 2 of The Queen's Gambit.
The margin in Pennsylvania is not going to be particularly close.
About 200k.
If true, another polling oddity. PA was consistently tighter in the polls than either WI or MI but may end up being the most comfortable of the Midwest trio for Biden
Have tried to follow the twists and turns during the day and hopefully plenty have made a quick profit (or even a slow one).
Can Biden take all of Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Georgia? Unlikely but not impossible. That would end up 322-216 which would look much more comfortable than the base numbers suggest. Currently, a 2.1% lead for Clinton has become a 2.7% for Biden so that's a 0.3% swing but in terms of ECV a considerable shift potentially.
Basically, the Democrats and Republicans have 20 "safe" states (including DC for the blues).
Of the remaining 11 "marginal" states, Trump won 10 last time (the exception being Nevada). So far, Biden has flipped Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona and to win the other three he lost last time, would leave the Democrats with seven and the Republicans with four.
As an aside, does anyone know who would be Secretary of State in a Biden administration?
California is only 75% counted, so you need to add another 1.5% or so to Biden's vote lead. I think he'll end up a little over 4% ahead.
So roughly a 0.9% swing from 2016. Four years and billions of dollars spent, and America has barely moved.
Why doesn't the USA have the Presidential election on one day/week/ month, Congress elections on another day/week/ month, state elections on another day/week/month and local elections on another day/week/month ?
There wouldn't be time for SCOTUS to get through all the lawsuits.
How long does it take to say " By a margin of 6 to 3 we find for the President" 500 times?
These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
I'm sure they're fine, and Trump's noise otherwise isn't worth anything, but nonetheless digging out very heavily biased packages of votes after the polls have closed just feels ugly.
I'd like to see voting rather more heavily controlled in the UK in this light. Electoral fraud should have some insanely nasty penalty too.
What do Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton both have in common? The market won't believe they aren't going to be the nominee the election after they lost, no matter how unlikely it begins to look.
I strongly suspect he won't even run again, but I strongly suspect Trump will be available at single-digit or low double-digit odds until at least the Iowa Caucus (and maybe long after).
Sorry if that has been shared already. Was watching episode 2 of The Queen's Gambit.
The margin in Pennsylvania is not going to be particularly close.
About 200k.
I'm sure @Alistair calculated this about 24 hours ago! I hope the TV networks are hiring...
Using the deeply sophisticated analysis of taking the margin from the first 600k mail votes counted, checking they came from a spread of counties and that Trump counties weren't massively lower and then multiplying the outstanding ballots by the margin.
Then getting on the the State market at 3.85 to save my betting day.
Why doesn't the USA have the Presidential election on one day/week/ month, Congress elections on another day/week/ month, state elections on another day/week/month and local elections on another day/week/month ?
They can’t cope doing it once every four years, so how do you expect them to do it every week?
Sorry if that has been shared already. Was watching episode 2 of The Queen's Gambit.
The margin in Pennsylvania is not going to be particularly close.
About 200k.
If true, another polling oddity. PA was consistently tighter in the polls than either WI or MI but may end up being the most comfortable of the Midwest trio for Biden
Michigan is a 3% lead for Biden now, I think.
Yeah Michigan is going to be the biggest margin. What's weird is how Minnesota and Wisconsin had such different swings, imho.
What do Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton both have in common? The market won't believe they aren't going to be the nominee the election after they lost, no matter how unlikely it begins to look.
I strongly suspect he won't even run again, but I strongly suspect Trump will be available at single-digit or low double-digit odds until at least the Iowa Caucus (and maybe long after).
These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
I'm sure they're fine, and Trump's noise otherwise isn't worth anything, but nonetheless digging out very heavily biased packages of votes after the polls have closed just feels ugly.
I'd like to see voting rather more heavily controlled in the UK in this light. Electoral fraud should have some insanely nasty penalty too.
There’s such an easy joke I could make about Brexit...
I would die if Fox is first network to call this for Biden.
They'd love it.
There has been a distinct cooling between them and Trump anymore and their thirst for publicity will, er, trump any lingering loyalty they have to Trump.
What better way to curry favour with the new administration than by announcing Biden as Potus?
These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
I'm sure they're fine, and Trump's noise otherwise isn't worth anything, but nonetheless digging out very heavily biased packages of votes after the polls have closed just feels ugly.
I'd like to see voting rather more heavily controlled in the UK in this light. Electoral fraud should have some insanely nasty penalty too.
Worth noting that in Georgia, where *all* the State officials and the legislature are Republican, you are seeing exactly the same pattern as Pennsylvania, etc.
Now, they may all hate Trump and be conspiring to get rid of him. Or this may be a very simple artifact of the President encouraging his supporters *not* to vote by mail, while the Dems begged their supporters to.
It's also worth remembering that the swings are pretty consistent between states with little to no mail in voting, and those with lots of main in voting.
Why doesn't the USA have the Presidential election on one day/week/ month, Congress elections on another day/week/ month, state elections on another day/week/month and local elections on another day/week/month ?
They can’t cope doing it once every four years, so how do you expect them to do it every week?
Why don’t they do it May, inauguration in June or tied in with 4th July? Why November?
These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
I'm sure they're fine, and Trump's noise otherwise isn't worth anything, but nonetheless digging out very heavily biased packages of votes after the polls have closed just feels ugly.
I'd like to see voting rather more heavily controlled in the UK in this light. Electoral fraud should have some insanely nasty penalty too.
It is not election fraud. If you mandate postal votes are counted last, and the President tells his supporters not to vote by mail, you can't be surprised when the mail in ballots favour his opponent so heavily.
Also worth remebering that all the states published the number of requested mail in ballots, and you can look and see if there are discrepencies between states with response rates.
What do Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton both have in common? The market won't believe they aren't going to be the nominee the election after they lost, no matter how unlikely it begins to look.
I strongly suspect he won't even run again, but I strongly suspect Trump will be available at single-digit or low double-digit odds until at least the Iowa Caucus (and maybe long after).
These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
FFS.
Mail ballot was a totally appropriate and legal way of voting particularly in this nasty pandemic.
Don't be silly.
I'm not being silly, and it does make me uncomfortable. If the votes thus cast looked roughly like the votes cast otherwise then fair enough, but they don't.
Thanks for calling me "silly" though - made me smile.
These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
I'm sure they're fine, and Trump's noise otherwise isn't worth anything, but nonetheless digging out very heavily biased packages of votes after the polls have closed just feels ugly.
I'd like to see voting rather more heavily controlled in the UK in this light. Electoral fraud should have some insanely nasty penalty too.
Sorry if that has been shared already. Was watching episode 2 of The Queen's Gambit.
The margin in Pennsylvania is not going to be particularly close.
About 200k.
If true, another polling oddity. PA was consistently tighter in the polls than either WI or MI but may end up being the most comfortable of the Midwest trio for Biden
Michigan is a 3% lead for Biden now, I think.
Yeah Michigan is going to be the biggest margin. What's weird is how Minnesota and Wisconsin had such different swings, imho.
I suspect Arizona will be a larger margin for Biden, but we'll see.
These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
I'm sure they're fine, and Trump's noise otherwise isn't worth anything, but nonetheless digging out very heavily biased packages of votes after the polls have closed just feels ugly.
I'd like to see voting rather more heavily controlled in the UK in this light. Electoral fraud should have some insanely nasty penalty too.
Errr.. You are aware that these are mostly* ballots received before the election, but not counted until election day because the Republicans didn't like the idea.
So they count the vote on the day first, then the postal votes...
*Yes, some states accept postal ballots received after election day, but franked before election day.
What do Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton both have in common? The market won't believe they aren't going to be the nominee the election after they lost, no matter how unlikely it begins to look.
I strongly suspect he won't even run again, but I strongly suspect Trump will be available at single-digit or low double-digit odds until at least the Iowa Caucus (and maybe long after).
These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
I'm sure they're fine, and Trump's noise otherwise isn't worth anything, but nonetheless digging out very heavily biased packages of votes after the polls have closed just feels ugly.
I'd like to see voting rather more heavily controlled in the UK in this light. Electoral fraud should have some insanely nasty penalty too.
Votes from the back of the sofa ? Very heavily biased ?
Sorry if that has been shared already. Was watching episode 2 of The Queen's Gambit.
The margin in Pennsylvania is not going to be particularly close.
About 200k.
If true, another polling oddity. PA was consistently tighter in the polls than either WI or MI but may end up being the most comfortable of the Midwest trio for Biden
Michigan is a 3% lead for Biden now, I think.
Yeah Michigan is going to be the biggest margin. What's weird is how Minnesota and Wisconsin had such different swings, imho.
The polling in Wisconsin really needs some serious investigation. It was 8-10 points off. A real oddity given that MN, MI and PA were all polled pretty accurately.
Have tried to follow the twists and turns during the day and hopefully plenty have made a quick profit (or even a slow one).
Can Biden take all of Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Georgia? Unlikely but not impossible. That would end up 322-216 which would look much more comfortable than the base numbers suggest. Currently, a 2.1% lead for Clinton has become a 2.7% for Biden so that's a 0.3% swing but in terms of ECV a considerable shift potentially.
Basically, the Democrats and Republicans have 20 "safe" states (including DC for the blues).
Of the remaining 11 "marginal" states, Trump won 10 last time (the exception being Nevada). So far, Biden has flipped Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona and to win the other three he lost last time, would leave the Democrats with seven and the Republicans with four.
As an aside, does anyone know who would be Secretary of State in a Biden administration?
California is only 75% counted, so you need to add another 1.5% or so to Biden's vote lead. I think he'll end up a little over 4% ahead.
These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
FFS.
Mail ballot was a totally appropriate and legal way of voting particularly in this nasty pandemic.
Don't be silly.
I'm not being silly, and it does make me uncomfortable. If the votes thus cast looked roughly like the votes cast otherwise then fair enough, but they don't.
Thanks for calling me "silly" though - made me smile.
The President told his supporters that mail in ballots were Evul and Wrong (apart from his own). This caused many of his supporters not to vote by mail in ballot.
NYT saying NV not counting any more votes until noon tomorrow. Are they actually having a laugh?
It's not like we're choosing the leader of the free world or anything here guys.
Nevada announced a short while ago that their result will take days.
The final result took days to emerge back in 2016. I find it odd that some big states - Florida- Texas - Virginia - are able to count at a similar speed to what we are familiar with in the UK and elsewhere ,yet others - Pennsylvania - Georgia - take days to arrive at a clear result.
These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
FFS.
Mail ballot was a totally appropriate and legal way of voting particularly in this nasty pandemic.
Don't be silly.
I'm not being silly, and it does make me uncomfortable. If the votes thus cast looked roughly like the votes cast otherwise then fair enough, but they don't.
Thanks for calling me "silly" though - made me smile.
Why are you comfortable with most of the Election Day vote being mostly Republican, but not the mail votes being mostly Democratic?
These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
I'm sure they're fine, and Trump's noise otherwise isn't worth anything, but nonetheless digging out very heavily biased packages of votes after the polls have closed just feels ugly.
I'd like to see voting rather more heavily controlled in the UK in this light. Electoral fraud should have some insanely nasty penalty too.
Errr.. You are aware that these are mostly* ballots received before the election, but not counted until election day because the Republicans didn't like the idea.
So they count the vote on the day first, then the postal votes...
*Yes, some states accept postal ballots received after election day, but franked before election day.
Given how childish Trump is on Twitter, and the likelihood of him going all insulting nickname on whoever he blames for losing, I’m not sure I blame her.
Have tried to follow the twists and turns during the day and hopefully plenty have made a quick profit (or even a slow one).
Can Biden take all of Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Georgia? Unlikely but not impossible. That would end up 322-216 which would look much more comfortable than the base numbers suggest. Currently, a 2.1% lead for Clinton has become a 2.7% for Biden so that's a 0.3% swing but in terms of ECV a considerable shift potentially.
Basically, the Democrats and Republicans have 20 "safe" states (including DC for the blues).
Of the remaining 11 "marginal" states, Trump won 10 last time (the exception being Nevada). So far, Biden has flipped Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona and to win the other three he lost last time, would leave the Democrats with seven and the Republicans with four.
As an aside, does anyone know who would be Secretary of State in a Biden administration?
California is only 75% counted, so you need to add another 1.5% or so to Biden's vote lead. I think he'll end up a little over 4% ahead.
So roughly a 0.9% swing from 2016. Four years and billions of dollars spent, and America has barely moved.
But a lot more people voted. Trump found extra voters.
These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
FFS.
Mail ballot was a totally appropriate and legal way of voting particularly in this nasty pandemic.
Don't be silly.
I'm not being silly, and it does make me uncomfortable. If the votes thus cast looked roughly like the votes cast otherwise then fair enough, but they don't.
Thanks for calling me "silly" though - made me smile.
The President told his supporters that mail in ballots were Evul and Wrong (apart from his own). This caused many of his supporters not to vote by mail in ballot.
Trump's stance against mail voting might have cost him WI and GA and maybe even NC as well.
And so the self-indulgent actions of the 'progressives' cost the Democrats the overwhelming victory they needed to have any chance of putting their progressive policies into practice. Nice job, idiots!
Another massive loss for Biden/Pelosi. Another huge win for Trump and Boris.
Pelosi is about to lose her job, as she lost seats to the Republicans. So yes it was a loss.
And moderate and centrist Democrats are moving against her as a consequence:
NYT saying NV not counting any more votes until noon tomorrow. Are they actually having a laugh?
It's not like we're choosing the leader of the free world or anything here guys.
Nevada announced a short while ago that their result will take days.
The final result took days to emerge back in 2016. I find it odd that some big states - Florida- Texas - Virginia - are able to count at a similar speed to what we are familiar with in the UK and elsewhere ,yet others - Pennsylvania - Georgia - take days to arrive at a clear result.
I'm sure Florida is still counting. But it's clear who the winner is there. PA is too close to call at the moment, so they have to wait until almost every singe vote has been counted.
Given how childish Trump is on Twitter, and the likelihood of him going all insulting nickname on whoever he blames for losing, I’m not sure I blame her.
Yes, woe betide anyone who upsets the Dear Leader.
Given how childish Trump is on Twitter, and the likelihood of him going all insulting nickname on whoever he blames for losing, I’m not sure I blame her.
She would genuinely have concerns for her safety I think.
Sorry if that has been shared already. Was watching episode 2 of The Queen's Gambit.
The margin in Pennsylvania is not going to be particularly close.
About 200k.
If true, another polling oddity. PA was consistently tighter in the polls than either WI or MI but may end up being the most comfortable of the Midwest trio for Biden
Agree the polling oddity. ButBoth candidates enjoying a (adopted) home state bounce wouldn’t be so odd in hindsight
And so the self-indulgent actions of the 'progressives' cost the Democrats the overwhelming victory they needed to have any chance of putting their progressive policies into practice. Nice job, idiots!
Another massive loss for Biden/Pelosi. Another huge win for Trump and Boris.
The Spectator TV podcast which "leans Republican" makes the same point in reverse -- that Trump skewered his own campaign by insulting the military, trivialising the pandemic, and turning the first debate into a shitshow. You could add @MaxPB's observation that telling Republicans not to vote early or by post was self-defeating too (even if he did step back slightly late on). This is not an election either side will look back on with great pleasure.
What do Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton both have in common? The market won't believe they aren't going to be the nominee the election after they lost, no matter how unlikely it begins to look.
I strongly suspect he won't even run again, but I strongly suspect Trump will be available at single-digit or low double-digit odds until at least the Iowa Caucus (and maybe long after).
These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
I'm sure they're fine, and Trump's noise otherwise isn't worth anything, but nonetheless digging out very heavily biased packages of votes after the polls have closed just feels ugly.
I'd like to see voting rather more heavily controlled in the UK in this light. Electoral fraud should have some insanely nasty penalty too.
Errr.. You are aware that these are mostly* ballots received before the election, but not counted until election day because the Republicans didn't like the idea.
So they count the vote on the day first, then the postal votes...
*Yes, some states accept postal ballots received after election day, but franked before election day.
These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
FFS.
Mail ballot was a totally appropriate and legal way of voting particularly in this nasty pandemic.
Don't be silly.
I'm not being silly, and it does make me uncomfortable. If the votes thus cast looked roughly like the votes cast otherwise then fair enough, but they don't.
Thanks for calling me "silly" though - made me smile.
Why are you comfortable with most of the Election Day vote being mostly Republican, but not the mail votes being mostly Democratic?
I have no view on how people should vote in the US. If part of the process produces a radically different outcome to the main vote then I think its sensible to question it.
Looks to me that Biden will carry AZ, NV, PA and GA.
NC is possible (but unlikely) gravy.
306 isn't even close.
Hmm. I agree, but I don't like this representation of ECVs as clear/close/landslide.
If Biden does that he will have done it with wafer thin margins in those states, except possibly PA which may be clearer, just as Trump did in 2016.
The truth is there isn't much in votes between getting 220-240 ECVs and 300-330 ECVs when you're narrowly contesting 5-6 states with wafer thin margins.
And so the self-indulgent actions of the 'progressives' cost the Democrats the overwhelming victory they needed to have any chance of putting their progressive policies into practice. Nice job, idiots!
Another massive loss for Biden/Pelosi. Another huge win for Trump and Boris.
The Spectator TV podcast which "leans Republican" makes the same point in reverse -- that Trump skewered his own campaign by insulting the military, trivialising the pandemic, and turning the first debate into a shitshow. You could add @MaxPB's observation that telling Republicans not to vote early or by post was self-defeating too (even if he did step back slightly late on). This is not an election either side will look back on with great pleasure.
Just take the pandemic. If he had listened to the scientists and led the campaign against the virus he would not only have saved thousands of American lives but would have stormed to a massive landslide victory.
These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
FFS.
Mail ballot was a totally appropriate and legal way of voting particularly in this nasty pandemic.
Don't be silly.
I'm not being silly, and it does make me uncomfortable. If the votes thus cast looked roughly like the votes cast otherwise then fair enough, but they don't.
Thanks for calling me "silly" though - made me smile.
The President told his supporters that mail in ballots were Evul and Wrong (apart from his own). This caused many of his supporters not to vote by mail in ballot.
Trump's stance against mail voting might have cost him WI and GA and maybe even NC as well.
I think any potential swing voter might gravitate to the incumbent when they're physically at the polls. But with a mail in, did a few republicans send them in for Biden when they had the time to think of things at home ?
These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
FFS.
Mail ballot was a totally appropriate and legal way of voting particularly in this nasty pandemic.
Don't be silly.
I'm not being silly, and it does make me uncomfortable. If the votes thus cast looked roughly like the votes cast otherwise then fair enough, but they don't.
Thanks for calling me "silly" though - made me smile.
Why are you comfortable with most of the Election Day vote being mostly Republican, but not the mail votes being mostly Democratic?
I have no view on how people should vote in the US. If part of the process produces a radically different outcome to the main vote then I think its sensible to question it.
Cannot see the youngbloods and old firebrands being happy with that. They probably think Biden was too old school and moderate to fire up the supporters.
These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
FFS.
Mail ballot was a totally appropriate and legal way of voting particularly in this nasty pandemic.
Don't be silly.
I'm not being silly, and it does make me uncomfortable. If the votes thus cast looked roughly like the votes cast otherwise then fair enough, but they don't.
Thanks for calling me "silly" though - made me smile.
Why are you comfortable with most of the Election Day vote being mostly Republican, but not the mail votes being mostly Democratic?
I have no view on how people should vote in the US. If part of the process produces a radically different outcome to the main vote then I think its sensible to question it.
Looks to me that Biden will carry AZ, NV, PA and GA.
NC is possible (but unlikely) gravy.
306 isn't even close.
Hmm. I agree, but I don't like this representation of ECVs as clear/close/landslide.
If Biden does that he will have done it with wafer thin margins in those states, except possibly PA which may be clearer, just as Trump did in 2016.
The truth is there isn't much in votes between getting 220-240 ECVs and 300-330 ECVs when you're narrowly contesting 5-6 states with wafer thin margins.
Well hang on a minute, in 2106 we were all talking about the Dems gathering large numbers of votes in the wrong places.
This is just a crappy effect of FPTP. Biden likely to finish >4% ahead in the PV (which was good enough for Brexit!)
And so the self-indulgent actions of the 'progressives' cost the Democrats the overwhelming victory they needed to have any chance of putting their progressive policies into practice. Nice job, idiots!
Another massive loss for Biden/Pelosi. Another huge win for Trump and Boris.
Suspect some on PB aren't quite aware of what a gigantic, sweet victory this will be – for Biden and the whole world.
These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
I'm sure they're fine, and Trump's noise otherwise isn't worth anything, but nonetheless digging out very heavily biased packages of votes after the polls have closed just feels ugly.
I'd like to see voting rather more heavily controlled in the UK in this light. Electoral fraud should have some insanely nasty penalty too.
Errr.. You are aware that these are mostly* ballots received before the election, but not counted until election day because the Republicans didn't like the idea.
So they count the vote on the day first, then the postal votes...
*Yes, some states accept postal ballots received after election day, but franked before election day.
Aware - tick.
Still feels uncomfortable.
That's what many people feel about transferable votes. The candidate who 'wins' the first round doesn't necessarily win.
Good evening, everybody. I've very much enjoyed following this election through your posts.
Looks to me that Biden will carry AZ, NV, PA and GA.
NC is possible (but unlikely) gravy.
306 isn't even close.
Hmm. I agree, but I don't like this representation of ECVs as clear/close/landslide.
If Biden does that he will have done it with wafer thin margins in those states, except possibly PA which may be clearer, just as Trump did in 2016.
The truth is there isn't much in votes between getting 220-240 ECVs and 300-330 ECVs when you're narrowly contesting 5-6 states with wafer thin margins.
True but with the biggest popular vote mandate of any President in US history.
Seriously, how long does it take to count 11,300 votes?
The mail ballot machines can do 750 ballots an hour I have read. So depending on the number of machines... A really long time.
A person can go much faster and people are cheap and temporary to hire.
America has a lot to learn from us about conducting elections.
There are more than a dozen votes in an individual ballot.
Hire more people or have a pencil, paper and person approach for the presidential ballot and do the other ones with the machines.
This is just farcical. The US is supposed to be a first world country and they can't even count the votes of the most important election they have every four years.
Yes, I find the 'there are lots of votes on a ballot' an unconvincing excuse since even if the separate presidential ballot idea is unreasonable or unncessary there are as you say there are others things one can easily do to speed things up.
These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
FFS.
Mail ballot was a totally appropriate and legal way of voting particularly in this nasty pandemic.
Don't be silly.
I'm not being silly, and it does make me uncomfortable. If the votes thus cast looked roughly like the votes cast otherwise then fair enough, but they don't.
Thanks for calling me "silly" though - made me smile.
Why are you comfortable with most of the Election Day vote being mostly Republican, but not the mail votes being mostly Democratic?
That may well be the case here in many elections, and in the Brexit referendum, but as we don't have a running tab at the counts we would never know.
Comments
There are extremists on the Left as nutty as QAnon.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/19/joe-biden-secretary-of-state-430089
Or he is playing safe.
I'm sure they're fine, and Trump's noise otherwise isn't worth anything, but nonetheless digging out very heavily biased packages of votes after the polls have closed just feels ugly.
I'd like to see voting rather more heavily controlled in the UK in this light. Electoral fraud should have some insanely nasty penalty too.
What do Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton both have in common?
The market won't believe they aren't going to be the nominee the election after they lost, no matter how unlikely it begins to look.
I strongly suspect he won't even run again, but I strongly suspect Trump will be available at single-digit or low double-digit odds until at least the Iowa Caucus (and maybe long after).
The House looks set to remain in Democrat hands but with a reduced majority which would be remarkable.
That said, a half-pint is better than an empty glass and the White House, House of Reps and a locked Senate wouldn't be too bad for the Democrats.
Trolling of the year, if there is such an award?
Then getting on the the State market at 3.85 to save my betting day.
They can’t cope doing it once every four years, so how do you expect them to do it every week?
Mail ballot was a totally appropriate and legal way of voting particularly in this nasty pandemic.
Don't be silly.
Seems too ridiculous to be true but who knows?
There has been a distinct cooling between them and Trump anymore and their thirst for publicity will, er, trump any lingering loyalty they have to Trump.
What better way to curry favour with the new administration than by announcing Biden as Potus?
Endgame.
Now, they may all hate Trump and be conspiring to get rid of him. Or this may be a very simple artifact of the President encouraging his supporters *not* to vote by mail, while the Dems begged their supporters to.
It's also worth remembering that the swings are pretty consistent between states with little to no mail in voting, and those with lots of main in voting.
Also worth remebering that all the states published the number of requested mail in ballots, and you can look and see if there are discrepencies between states with response rates.
Thanks for calling me "silly" though - made me smile.
Do you mean mail-in ballots?
So they count the vote on the day first, then the postal votes...
*Yes, some states accept postal ballots received after election day, but franked before election day.
Very heavily biased ?
Mail in ballots in urban Philly...
I'd say Trump should be narrow favourite, but really narrow.
I find it odd that some big states - Florida- Texas - Virginia - are able to count at a similar speed to what we are familiar with in the UK and elsewhere ,yet others - Pennsylvania - Georgia - take days to arrive at a clear result.
Still feels uncomfortable.
But that requires the Dems to pick up both Georgia special election seats.
Possible... But far from certain.
And moderate and centrist Democrats are moving against her as a consequence:
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/524503-centrist-democrats-talk-leadership-changes-after-negative-election-results?amp#click=https://t.co/x1QzSgT7Jb
Looks to me that Biden will carry AZ, NV, PA and GA.
NC is possible (but unlikely) gravy.
306 isn't even close.
https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx
If Biden does that he will have done it with wafer thin margins in those states, except possibly PA which may be clearer, just as Trump did in 2016.
The truth is there isn't much in votes between getting 220-240 ECVs and 300-330 ECVs when you're narrowly contesting 5-6 states with wafer thin margins.
Insane.
So why are they now taking so long to do the last 50,000? They've literally counted and reported about 10,000 today I think.
No, both contribute to the same outcome.
And sadly Cal will always get blame for losing it, whilst on the night many other Dems lost without trouser snake issues 😕
SNP OVERALL MAJORITY: 11 SEATS;
PRO-INDY MAJORITY: 31 SEATS.
Nothing a little SLab/SCon/SLD tactical voting can't sort, I'm sure.
This is just a crappy effect of FPTP. Biden likely to finish >4% ahead in the PV (which was good enough for Brexit!)
Suspect some on PB aren't quite aware of what a gigantic, sweet victory this will be – for Biden and the whole world.
Good evening, everybody. I've very much enjoyed following this election through your posts.
Not too shabby.
Surprising.