I assume the same is true for other channels but it really is amazing how CNN can sustain the coverage of the same four or five tables and maps for days on end.
Eastenders has recycled the same plots (and often characters) for 35 years and the audience doesnt seem to mind at all.
One thing is for sure. If a similar election were taking place in the developing world, the US Embassy and State Department would be casting aspersions by now.
What do you think the developing world thought of us when the HofC were refusing to implement Brexit!
"Copycats" probably
As you well know referendums are not binding in this county, not unless the law says so, so if aspersions were being cast for not implementing it as though tehre were various electoral problems, those aspersions would be misplaced, since it was a political, not electoral issue.
365 just gone dems 3/10 GA. paddys still 4/7 if you think 365 are right.
I`ve been hammering BF -63.5 h`cap market. Biden was 1.8 - 2.0 until only half an hour ago. This was, in effect, a play on Biden winning Georgia.
Am I missing something on this market? Trump currently has 214 ECV's (217 once you include Alaska) - and that's not counting any of NV, AZ, GA, PA, NC. 217+63.5 = 280.5 which is greater than 270 - so Trump should be at 1.1 or tighter on this market surely?
I have a very confident end point of Biden 306, Trump 232. Difference 74. So Biden -63.5 pays out.
The head of the ONS has literally said that the nation's top scientists have justified plunging the country into an economically catastrophic lockdown based knowingly on out-of-date and misleading data that doesn't justify the case made. This should quite clearly be a resigning matter, in any sensible interpretation of this. Simply "apologising" shouldn't be enough.
But it won't be because the vast majority of the "sensible" criticism of Government policy comes from the angle of "lockdown hasn't been implemented quickly enough" and a general evidence light feeling that "we should be locking down as much as possible". It's an absolute scandal.
Even if actually the policy is sound, and the Government is doing the right thing, it absolutely should be being done on the basis of the most accurate and up-to-date evidence, and that evidence should be offered as transparently as possible.
Disgraceful ... seems to be how UK govt now works.
In this case, i'm not sure it's even the Government - unless they were complicit in knowing that the information was out of date. This is the scientific experts upon which the Government imply implicitly to provide advice on matters upon which the Government is, by definition, not expert. For the scientists to use out-of-date and misleading information suggests that they have an agenda to promote courses of action, regardless of whether they have an evidence base to advocate this.
The Government could be criticised for not challenging the information effectively enough. But having said that, they should have the right to expect that data they are provided with is a complete picture (from what is available).
So the next big betting foreign election is France 2022.
I plan to write PB threads on that election in French.
Macron nailed on. He's following almost the perfect electoral strategy.
Interestingly a senior Le Pen advisor resigned a couple of days ago because he said she's too soft on Islam in France. She might end up being seen as much closer to the centre ground than was ever imaginable before.
Hypothetically, do people think Trump overturning a state's results in the Supreme Court at some point in December would count as a change in the Electoral College for Betfair purposes, or as a "subsequent event"?
This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.
The head of the ONS has literally said that the nation's top scientists have justified plunging the country into an economically catastrophic lockdown based knowingly on out-of-date and misleading data that doesn't justify the case made. This should quite clearly be a resigning matter, in any sensible interpretation of this. Simply "apologising" shouldn't be enough.
But it won't be because the vast majority of the "sensible" criticism of Government policy comes from the angle of "lockdown hasn't been implemented quickly enough" and a general evidence light feeling that "we should be locking down as much as possible". It's an absolute scandal.
Even if actually the policy is sound, and the Government is doing the right thing, it absolutely should be being done on the basis of the most accurate and up-to-date evidence, and that evidence should be offered as transparently as possible.
Just for clarity: the only issue is with the 4000 per day one? All the other data, including all the models that had deaths per day still higher than the first peak and the NHS overloaded are fine, but we should overlook them to focus only on the 4000 per day one as if this would mean that actually everything would be okay? Just asking for clarity, because it feels like deliberately focusing on something which, if it was removed, still wouldn’t change the situation.
Edit: Apologies, I jumped in too soon and after having only really read the post on the previous thread.
I assume the same is true for other channels but it really is amazing how CNN can sustain the coverage of the same four or five tables and maps for days on end.
Eastenders has recycled the same plots (and often characters) for 35 years and the audience doesnt seem to mind at all.
The guy who does the map board for CNN must have nightmares about it for nights after!
365 just gone dems 3/10 GA. paddys still 4/7 if you think 365 are right.
I`ve been hammering BF -63.5 h`cap market. Biden was 1.8 - 2.0 until only half an hour ago. This was, in effect, a play on Biden winning Georgia.
Am I missing something on this market? Trump currently has 214 ECV's (217 once you include Alaska) - and that's not counting any of NV, AZ, GA, PA, NC. 217+63.5 = 280.5 which is greater than 270 - so Trump should be at 1.1 or tighter on this market surely?
I have a very confident end point of Biden 306, Trump 232. Difference 74. So Biden -63.5 pays out.
Thanks - thought that I was missing something obvious - mental block about handicap markets being the difference not vs the post. In which case the - 100.5 market might be worth looking at as a proxy for Biden sneaking NC as well (where I agree with Robert that I think he might) for and end point of 321-217
if it does end up at 306 i think only 2 states will have been won by the betting outsider before the counting started. NC and GA. and in NC trump was still only about Evs. GA I think Biden was about 11/8. If Biden does pinch NC then 49/50 favs will have won by my reckoning.
So the next big betting foreign election is France 2022.
I plan to write PB threads on that election in French.
Macron nailed on. He's following almost the perfect electoral strategy.
Interestingly a senior Le Pen advisor resigned a couple of days ago because he said she's too soft on Islam in France. She might end up being seen as much closer to the centre ground than was ever imaginable before.
Macron is clearly a Cleggy/Blairy/establishment centrist type guy. But, he's winning over guys like me on the Right and @MaxPB with his muscular defence of Western values, strong defence and patriotic leadership. Yes, he's pro-EU but from a Gaullist point of view I kind of understand that.
The head of the ONS has literally said that the nation's top scientists have justified plunging the country into an economically catastrophic lockdown based knowingly on out-of-date and misleading data that doesn't justify the case made. This should quite clearly be a resigning matter, in any sensible interpretation of this. Simply "apologising" shouldn't be enough.
But it won't be because the vast majority of the "sensible" criticism of Government policy comes from the angle of "lockdown hasn't been implemented quickly enough" and a general evidence light feeling that "we should be locking down as much as possible". It's an absolute scandal.
Even if actually the policy is sound, and the Government is doing the right thing, it absolutely should be being done on the basis of the most accurate and up-to-date evidence, and that evidence should be offered as transparently as possible.
Just for clarity: the only issue is with the 4000 per day one? All the other data, including all the models that had deaths per day still higher than the first peak and the NHS overloaded are fine, but we should overlook them to focus only on the 4000 per day one as if this would mean that actually everything would be okay? Just asking for clarity, because it feels like deliberately focusing on something which, if it was removed, still wouldn’t change the situation.
The people in hospital are all faking it and the doctors are lying about the hospitals being full of..... fakers - didn't you get the memo?
365 just gone dems 3/10 GA. paddys still 4/7 if you think 365 are right.
I`ve been hammering BF -63.5 h`cap market. Biden was 1.8 - 2.0 until only half an hour ago. This was, in effect, a play on Biden winning Georgia.
Am I missing something on this market? Trump currently has 214 ECV's (217 once you include Alaska) - and that's not counting any of NV, AZ, GA, PA, NC. 217+63.5 = 280.5 which is greater than 270 - so Trump should be at 1.1 or tighter on this market surely?
I have a very confident end point of Biden 306, Trump 232. Difference 74. So Biden -63.5 pays out.
Thanks - thought that I was missing something obvious - mental block about handicap markets being the difference not vs the post. In which case the - 100.5 market might be worth looking at as a proxy for Biden sneaking NC as well (where I agree with Robert that I think he might) for and end point of 321-217
if it does end up at 306 i think only 2 states will have been won by the betting outsider before the counting started. NC and GA. and in NC trump was still only about Evs. GA I think Biden was about 11/8. If Biden does pinch NC then 49/50 favs will have won by my reckoning.
Everyone is saying how close it’s been and how the polls were out again. But with the exception of Florida and possibly Ohio, Biden has won every state he was expected to win, and been competitive in the states he was expected to do well in but fall short.
365 just gone dems 3/10 GA. paddys still 4/7 if you think 365 are right.
I`ve been hammering BF -63.5 h`cap market. Biden was 1.8 - 2.0 until only half an hour ago. This was, in effect, a play on Biden winning Georgia.
Am I missing something on this market? Trump currently has 214 ECV's (217 once you include Alaska) - and that's not counting any of NV, AZ, GA, PA, NC. 217+63.5 = 280.5 which is greater than 270 - so Trump should be at 1.1 or tighter on this market surely?
I have a very confident end point of Biden 306, Trump 232. Difference 74. So Biden -63.5 pays out.
Thanks - thought that I was missing something obvious - mental block about handicap markets being the difference not vs the post. In which case the - 100.5 market might be worth looking at as a proxy for Biden sneaking NC as well (where I agree with Robert that I think he might) for and end point of 321-217
if it does end up at 306 i think only 2 states will have been won by the betting outsider before the counting started. NC and GA. and in NC trump was still only about Evs. GA I think Biden was about 11/8. If Biden does pinch NC then 49/50 favs will have won by my reckoning.
If Biden does get to 306, It will mean my forecast of 291 was meh but I'd console myself with the bigger the margin the less traction Trumps legal and just plain insane actions going forward will have
So the next big betting foreign election is France 2022.
I plan to write PB threads on that election in French.
Macron nailed on. He's following almost the perfect electoral strategy.
Interestingly a senior Le Pen advisor resigned a couple of days ago because he said she's too soft on Islam in France. She might end up being seen as much closer to the centre ground than was ever imaginable before.
She's gone really centrist on a lot of things: she's started being nice about the EU, she's been courting moderate Muslim votes.
Hypothetically, do people think Trump overturning a state's results in the Supreme Court at some point in December would count as a change in the Electoral College for Betfair purposes, or as a "subsequent event"?
This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.
Very loose wording. I’d plump for the former - its a ruling on what the “correct” result should have been in the first place, rather than a “subsequent” event. But you could argue it either way.
To repeat what I said earlier, I don't think the Supreme Court is going to weigh in on anything electoral related without overwhelming evidence. Simply, whatever their political views, they're mostly professionals and they all have their eyes on the history books. (Plus, the last thing they want to do is to encourage the Dems to pack the court when they next get to 50 Senators.)
The head of the ONS has literally said that the nation's top scientists have justified plunging the country into an economically catastrophic lockdown based knowingly on out-of-date and misleading data that doesn't justify the case made. This should quite clearly be a resigning matter, in any sensible interpretation of this. Simply "apologising" shouldn't be enough.
But it won't be because the vast majority of the "sensible" criticism of Government policy comes from the angle of "lockdown hasn't been implemented quickly enough" and a general evidence light feeling that "we should be locking down as much as possible". It's an absolute scandal.
Even if actually the policy is sound, and the Government is doing the right thing, it absolutely should be being done on the basis of the most accurate and up-to-date evidence, and that evidence should be offered as transparently as possible.
Just for clarity: the only issue is with the 4000 per day one? All the other data, including all the models that had deaths per day still higher than the first peak and the NHS overloaded are fine, but we should overlook them to focus only on the 4000 per day one as if this would mean that actually everything would be okay? Just asking for clarity, because it feels like deliberately focusing on something which, if it was removed, still wouldn’t change the situation.
The people in hospital are all faking it and the doctors are lying about the hospitals being full of..... fakers - didn't you get the memo?
This is fundamentally missing the point. Nobody sensible is denying either that COVID is a serious illness nor that there are drastic actions needed to be taken to combat it. Maybe even to the extent of the action being taken. However when the drastic actions have such far reaching consequences it is massively irresponsible for the scientists to use misleading and out-of-date data to justify it. If the offending study was excluded from the evidence and the same decision was seen to be justifiable then fine. But bear in mind that much of what we know about how the govt's mind was changed was based on arguments that we were exceeding "reasonable worse case scenarios". If performance against worst case scenarios is how policy is being decided, do you not think it is important that scientists should not be able to present "worst case scenarios" to bolster a case that are, in effect, made up?
So the next big betting foreign election is France 2022.
I plan to write PB threads on that election in French.
Macron nailed on. He's following almost the perfect electoral strategy.
Interestingly a senior Le Pen advisor resigned a couple of days ago because he said she's too soft on Islam in France. She might end up being seen as much closer to the centre ground than was ever imaginable before.
Question:
If the leader of a populist party abandons all their populist policies and gets elected to office, are they still a populist?
To repeat what I said earlier, I don't think the Supreme Court is going to weigh in on anything electoral related without overwhelming evidence. Simply, whatever their political views, they're mostly professionals and they all have their eyes on the history books. (Plus, the last thing they want to do is to encourage the Dems to pack the court when they next get to 50 Senators.)
To repeat what I said earlier, I don't think the Supreme Court is going to weigh in on anything electoral related without overwhelming evidence. Simply, whatever their political views, they're mostly professionals and they all have their eyes on the history books. (Plus, the last thing they want to do is to encourage the Dems to pack the court when they next get to 50 Senators.)
Alan Dershowitz on Bush-Gore 2000 Supreme Court decision:
"The decision in the Florida election case may be ranked as the single most corrupt decision in Supreme Court history, because it is the only one that I know of where the majority justices decided as they did because of the personal identity and political affiliation of the litigants. This was cheating, and a violation of the judicial oath"
Hope you are right, but can't share your optimism if there are just 1 or 2 states in it. Hopefully its 3,4 or even 5.
365 just gone dems 3/10 GA. paddys still 4/7 if you think 365 are right.
I`ve been hammering BF -63.5 h`cap market. Biden was 1.8 - 2.0 until only half an hour ago. This was, in effect, a play on Biden winning Georgia.
Am I missing something on this market? Trump currently has 214 ECV's (217 once you include Alaska) - and that's not counting any of NV, AZ, GA, PA, NC. 217+63.5 = 280.5 which is greater than 270 - so Trump should be at 1.1 or tighter on this market surely?
I have a very confident end point of Biden 306, Trump 232. Difference 74. So Biden -63.5 pays out.
Thanks - thought that I was missing something obvious - mental block about handicap markets being the difference not vs the post. In which case the - 100.5 market might be worth looking at as a proxy for Biden sneaking NC as well (where I agree with Robert that I think he might) for and end point of 321-217
if it does end up at 306 i think only 2 states will have been won by the betting outsider before the counting started. NC and GA. and in NC trump was still only about Evs. GA I think Biden was about 11/8. If Biden does pinch NC then 49/50 favs will have won by my reckoning.
Everyone is saying how close it’s been and how the polls were out again. But with the exception of Florida and possibly Ohio, Biden has won every state he was expected to win, and been competitive in the states he was expected to do well in but fall short.
The National polls are on average about 3.5% out so at the extreme edge of the MoE. It may not technically be a fail but it ain't great either.
Standing on my balcony with a drink listening to the whoosh and crackle and smelling the cordite and sulphur. Bliss.
Who is using cordite in fireworks?
Perhaps it is the Barnes riflemen. What is the smell from fireworks? Gunpowder?
I used to work with a gentlemen from Texas - he owned a ranch that, according to him, consisted entirely of boulders and tree stumps.
Being a trained explosives expert, he would spend the day carefully placing ANFO with a bit of dynamite to kick it off, and wiring it all up. Come evening, he would sit on his porch, pressing buttons and drinking out of a jam jar....
He was well regarded in the oil business. Apparently an explosives man with all his fingers is rare and to be respected.....
Similar to Norfolk. Having five, fingers on each hand.....well four plus a thumb .... respect.
To repeat what I said earlier, I don't think the Supreme Court is going to weigh in on anything electoral related without overwhelming evidence. Simply, whatever their political views, they're mostly professionals and they all have their eyes on the history books. (Plus, the last thing they want to do is to encourage the Dems to pack the court when they next get to 50 Senators.)
Yep, I made a similar point yesterday.
They're not puppets.
'Justice' Kavanaugh's ruling a few days ago confirmed he was a GOP hack and puppet.
So the next big betting foreign election is France 2022.
I plan to write PB threads on that election in French.
Macron nailed on. He's following almost the perfect electoral strategy.
Interestingly a senior Le Pen advisor resigned a couple of days ago because he said she's too soft on Islam in France. She might end up being seen as much closer to the centre ground than was ever imaginable before.
Macron is clearly a Cleggy/Blairy/establishment centrist type guy. But, he's winning over guys like me on the Right and @MaxPB with his muscular defence of Western values, strong defence and patriotic leadership. Yes, he's pro-EU but from a Gaullist point of view I kind of understand that.
He'd absolutely get my vote.
Yes, Macron would absolutely get my vote and in the disturbing scenario of being a Frenchman I'd probably be in favour of EU membership as it helps France project its power in a way it doesn't for the UK.
Standing on my balcony with a drink listening to the whoosh and crackle and smelling the cordite and sulphur. Bliss.
Who is using cordite in fireworks?
Perhaps it is the Barnes riflemen. What is the smell from fireworks? Gunpowder?
I used to work with a gentlemen from Texas - he owned a ranch that, according to him, consisted entirely of boulders and tree stumps.
Being a trained explosives expert, he would spend the day carefully placing ANFO with a bit of dynamite to kick it off, and wiring it all up. Come evening, he would sit on his porch, pressing buttons and drinking out of a jam jar....
He was well regarded in the oil business. Apparently an explosives man with all his fingers is rare and to be respected.....
Similar to Norfolk. Having five, fingers on each hand.....
At school we were warned not to make our own fireworks; a boy two years earlier had blown his hand off.
So the next big betting foreign election is France 2022.
I plan to write PB threads on that election in French.
Macron nailed on. He's following almost the perfect electoral strategy.
Interestingly a senior Le Pen advisor resigned a couple of days ago because he said she's too soft on Islam in France. She might end up being seen as much closer to the centre ground than was ever imaginable before.
Macron is clearly a Cleggy/Blairy/establishment centrist type guy. But, he's winning over guys like me on the Right and @MaxPB with his muscular defence of Western values, strong defence and patriotic leadership. Yes, he's pro-EU but from a Gaullist point of view I kind of understand that.
He'd absolutely get my vote.
Yes, Macron would absolutely get my vote and in the disturbing scenario of being a Frenchman I'd probably be in favour of EU membership as it helps France project its power in a way it doesn't for the UK.
Standing on my balcony with a drink listening to the whoosh and crackle and smelling the cordite and sulphur. Bliss.
Who is using cordite in fireworks?
Perhaps it is the Barnes riflemen. What is the smell from fireworks? Gunpowder?
I used to work with a gentlemen from Texas - he owned a ranch that, according to him, consisted entirely of boulders and tree stumps.
Being a trained explosives expert, he would spend the day carefully placing ANFO with a bit of dynamite to kick it off, and wiring it all up. Come evening, he would sit on his porch, pressing buttons and drinking out of a jam jar....
He was well regarded in the oil business. Apparently an explosives man with all his fingers is rare and to be respected.....
Similar to Norfolk. Having five, fingers on each hand.....well four plus a thumb .... respect.
I call bullshit on that one. No way did someone from Norfolk have exactly five fingers on each hand.
- Unless they were a careless explosives... afficiando. - Or a first generation immigrant.
Might also be worth bearing in mind that the probability of a 77-78 year old white American male dying in the next 4 years is very nearly 20%.
But that assumes no individual knowledge of a certain 77 year old health or genetics - Joe Biden is probably fitter than the average 77 year old - Trump on the other hand
So the next big betting foreign election is France 2022.
I plan to write PB threads on that election in French.
Macron nailed on. He's following almost the perfect electoral strategy.
Interestingly a senior Le Pen advisor resigned a couple of days ago because he said she's too soft on Islam in France. She might end up being seen as much closer to the centre ground than was ever imaginable before.
Macron is clearly a Cleggy/Blairy/establishment centrist type guy. But, he's winning over guys like me on the Right and @MaxPB with his muscular defence of Western values, strong defence and patriotic leadership. Yes, he's pro-EU but from a Gaullist point of view I kind of understand that.
He'd absolutely get my vote.
Yes, I admire his firmness, over French statues, and now Free Speech.
He is also being personally brave. He is now a prime target for Islamist attack - assassination - in a way he wasn't before.
Standing on my balcony with a drink listening to the whoosh and crackle and smelling the cordite and sulphur. Bliss.
Who is using cordite in fireworks?
Perhaps it is the Barnes riflemen. What is the smell from fireworks? Gunpowder?
I used to work with a gentlemen from Texas - he owned a ranch that, according to him, consisted entirely of boulders and tree stumps.
Being a trained explosives expert, he would spend the day carefully placing ANFO with a bit of dynamite to kick it off, and wiring it all up. Come evening, he would sit on his porch, pressing buttons and drinking out of a jam jar....
He was well regarded in the oil business. Apparently an explosives man with all his fingers is rare and to be respected.....
Similar to Norfolk. Having five, fingers on each hand.....
At school we were warned not to make our own fireworks; a boy two years earlier had blown his hand off.
Turtles all the way down. Was it not suggested here weeks ago that Trump appeared to be calling for his supporters to commit voting fraud, which would provide evidence of voting fraud or did I imagine that?
365 just gone dems 3/10 GA. paddys still 4/7 if you think 365 are right.
I`ve been hammering BF -63.5 h`cap market. Biden was 1.8 - 2.0 until only half an hour ago. This was, in effect, a play on Biden winning Georgia.
Am I missing something on this market? Trump currently has 214 ECV's (217 once you include Alaska) - and that's not counting any of NV, AZ, GA, PA, NC. 217+63.5 = 280.5 which is greater than 270 - so Trump should be at 1.1 or tighter on this market surely?
I have a very confident end point of Biden 306, Trump 232. Difference 74. So Biden -63.5 pays out.
Thanks - thought that I was missing something obvious - mental block about handicap markets being the difference not vs the post. In which case the - 100.5 market might be worth looking at as a proxy for Biden sneaking NC as well (where I agree with Robert that I think he might) for and end point of 321-217
if it does end up at 306 i think only 2 states will have been won by the betting outsider before the counting started. NC and GA. and in NC trump was still only about Evs. GA I think Biden was about 11/8. If Biden does pinch NC then 49/50 favs will have won by my reckoning.
Everyone is saying how close it’s been and how the polls were out again. But with the exception of Florida and possibly Ohio, Biden has won every state he was expected to win, and been competitive in the states he was expected to do well in but fall short.
The National polls are on average about 3.5% out so at the extreme edge of the MoE. It may not technically be a fail but it ain't great either.
That margin of error only applies to a single poll, and is due to unavoidable random variation in a sample of 1000 or whatever. Averaging them in effect increases the sample size and hence is supposed to bring down the margin of error. So a 3.5% error in the averages is due to some systematic error rather than random variation.
Standing on my balcony with a drink listening to the whoosh and crackle and smelling the cordite and sulphur. Bliss.
Who is using cordite in fireworks?
Perhaps it is the Barnes riflemen. What is the smell from fireworks? Gunpowder?
I used to work with a gentlemen from Texas - he owned a ranch that, according to him, consisted entirely of boulders and tree stumps.
Being a trained explosives expert, he would spend the day carefully placing ANFO with a bit of dynamite to kick it off, and wiring it all up. Come evening, he would sit on his porch, pressing buttons and drinking out of a jam jar....
He was well regarded in the oil business. Apparently an explosives man with all his fingers is rare and to be respected.....
Similar to Norfolk. Having five, fingers on each hand.....
At school we were warned not to make our own fireworks; a boy two years earlier had blown his hand off.
I read somewhere on the internet:
"Gunpowder is made of finely ground charcoal, sulphur and saltpetre.
I have found out the hard way that it is best to grind the ingredients prior to combining them."
This 'how many votes left in PA ' may become a meme , its so funny. The SoS was just on live saying 550K left,,,,,then a few minutes later CNN said ,,,well shes using dated figures its 380K left! Maybe theres really only 10 votes left
*Everyone* in the centre and centre-left who wants to win elections in Western elections where they face a strong populist challenge needs to be taking notes:
365 just gone dems 3/10 GA. paddys still 4/7 if you think 365 are right.
I`ve been hammering BF -63.5 h`cap market. Biden was 1.8 - 2.0 until only half an hour ago. This was, in effect, a play on Biden winning Georgia.
Am I missing something on this market? Trump currently has 214 ECV's (217 once you include Alaska) - and that's not counting any of NV, AZ, GA, PA, NC. 217+63.5 = 280.5 which is greater than 270 - so Trump should be at 1.1 or tighter on this market surely?
I have a very confident end point of Biden 306, Trump 232. Difference 74. So Biden -63.5 pays out.
Thanks - thought that I was missing something obvious - mental block about handicap markets being the difference not vs the post. In which case the - 100.5 market might be worth looking at as a proxy for Biden sneaking NC as well (where I agree with Robert that I think he might) for and end point of 321-217
if it does end up at 306 i think only 2 states will have been won by the betting outsider before the counting started. NC and GA. and in NC trump was still only about Evs. GA I think Biden was about 11/8. If Biden does pinch NC then 49/50 favs will have won by my reckoning.
Everyone is saying how close it’s been and how the polls were out again. But with the exception of Florida and possibly Ohio, Biden has won every state he was expected to win, and been competitive in the states he was expected to do well in but fall short.
The National polls are on average about 3.5% out so at the extreme edge of the MoE. It may not technically be a fail but it ain't great either.
That margin of error only applies to a single poll, and is due to unavoidable random variation in a sample of 1000 or whatever. Averaging them in effect increases the sample size and hence is supposed to bring down the margin of error. So a 3.5% error in the averages is due to some systematic error rather than random variation.
Hmmm...not quite sure that's the way it works but it's agreed it wasn't a great performance from the pollsters. Some were very good thoud. IBD/TIPP were pretty much on the money and Anne Selzer on Iowa was sensational (again).
Might also be worth bearing in mind that the probability of a 77-78 year old white American male dying in the next 4 years is very nearly 20%.
But that assumes no individual knowledge of a certain 77 year old health or genetics - Joe Biden is probably fitter than the average 77 year old - Trump on the other hand
But we don't know that for certain, although I believe he has submitted his medical records for scrutiny. But there again so has "I'm the fittest man alive" Trump.
Might also be worth bearing in mind that the probability of a 77-78 year old white American male dying in the next 4 years is very nearly 20%.
But that assumes no individual knowledge of a certain 77 year old health or genetics - Joe Biden is probably fitter than the average 77 year old - Trump on the other hand
Probably? Have you seen the average American? He is probably fitter than the average 57 year old male American, definitely fitter than the average 67 year old male. Not mention the disparity in access to doctors and healthcare.
*Everyone* in the centre and centre-left who wants to win elections in Western elections where they face a strong populist challenge needs to be taking notes:
I assume the same is true for other channels but it really is amazing how CNN can sustain the coverage of the same four or five tables and maps for days on end.
Eastenders has recycled the same plots (and often characters) for 35 years and the audience doesnt seem to mind at all.
...and has got more White British as the East End has become less so
Comments
The Government could be criticised for not challenging the information effectively enough. But having said that, they should have the right to expect that data they are provided with is a complete picture (from what is available).
I have plenty of diabetes patients of adult onset who were never overweight.
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1324421573537865734
Just asking for clarity, because it feels like deliberately focusing on something which, if it was removed, still wouldn’t change the situation.
Edit: Apologies, I jumped in too soon and after having only really read the post on the previous thread.
He got some ridicule a week or so ago for being a Trump supporter, but his analysis has been excellent despite dodgy political beliefs...
PaddyPower is better by the way, which is offering evens.
He'd absolutely get my vote.
My tip? Follow real gamblers with a track record of making money in a *variety* of political contests across the spectrum, in different countries.
They know their shit and are free of confirmation bias.
Templeton Peck has been excellent on this election.
How incompetent are these loons?
Nevada is the wave, Arizona is the particle.
You can call one or other for Biden, but not both at the same time.
Trump that is not you
Probability of 77-78 year old white male dying in the next 12 months is 0.042286/
2.5 months to go until 20th January so 0.008809 or 113/1
Kamala Harris can currently be back at 470/1 to be next POTUS on Betfair.
So that bet won't win.
If the leader of a populist party abandons all their populist policies and gets elected to office, are they still a populist?
They're not puppets.
"The decision in the Florida election case may be ranked as the single most corrupt decision in Supreme Court history, because it is the only one that I know of where the majority justices decided as they did because of the personal identity and political affiliation of the litigants. This was cheating, and a violation of the judicial oath"
Hope you are right, but can't share your optimism if there are just 1 or 2 states in it. Hopefully its 3,4 or even 5.
I have no idea whatsoever why he is lauded on here as some kind of seer.
(As polite a chap as he is)
The lawyers aren't particularly confident in presenting the case, and the judge is politely excoriating in dismissing it.
It had no basis in fact or law.
- Unless they were a careless explosives... afficiando.
- Or a first generation immigrant.
BBC: Biden 253, Trump 214
What's the extra electoral college vote that BBC is attributing to Trump that CNN aren't? Just out of curiosity.
Tells you something.
He is also being personally brave. He is now a prime target for Islamist attack - assassination - in a way he wasn't before.
They should have
"Gunpowder is made of finely ground charcoal, sulphur and saltpetre.
I have found out the hard way that it is best to grind the ingredients prior to combining them."
I am not normally impolite but I say to Trump. 'Just clear off '
*Everyone* in the centre and centre-left who wants to win elections in Western elections where they face a strong populist challenge needs to be taking notes:
https://twitter.com/PenalltaRat/status/1324429968202498049?s=19
1.07
Is this thing all over?
Biden 264 Trump 214
So they are wrong.
Karma’s a bitch...but it would be absolutely pant-wettingly funny.