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The WH2020 count goes on with still no sign of a resolution – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,127
edited November 2020 in General
imageThe WH2020 count goes on with still no sign of a resolution – politicalbetting.com

The screen grab above is from Georgia – one of they states where there’s just a possibility of a Biden victory which, if it happens, could lead to the media at least calling the overall result of the election.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    First.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,825
    Second.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,281
    Third.like Jo....

  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    GEORGIAAAAAAAAAA
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    Third?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    FRAUD! I'd have been first if they hadn't counted so early.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,169
    Is a tie now impossible? Im too tired to work it out.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Third.like Jo....

    STOP THE COUNT
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,866
    tlg86 said:

    First.

    Nobody willing to make a call yet
    RobD said:

    Second.

    I demand a recount. ;)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    edited November 2020
    Fourth. Stop the count!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    edited November 2020
    *Fourth* Why is there no edit function when you need it?

    I've amended it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,825
    kyf_100 said:

    tlg86 said:

    First.

    Nobody willing to make a call yet
    RobD said:

    Second.

    I demand a recount. ;)
    I mailed my comment in, so I was technically first. It was just counted second.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,825
    edited November 2020
    williamglenn said:

    *Fourth* Why is there no edit function when you need it?

    Now everyone will see your shame.

    paging @rcs1000

    Edit: the most important people still have edit, and that's all that really matters.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,209
    FPT
    YUFD said:

    » show previous quotes
    Only 47% Yes including undecideds

    The grand slam of the polls out today , SNP just keep going up , constituency up , regional list up , independence , up and Tories circling the drain and seeking to reach the depths of the Lib Dems, DROSS will get them there.
    Survation.
    @Survation
    ·
    2h
    NEW @Survation
    Poll –Scottish Parliament, Regional List vote

    SNP 43% (+2)
    LAB 19% (+1)
    CON 17% (-1)
    GRN 10% (-)
    LD 7% (-1)
    BXP 2% (-)
    UKIP 1% (-)
    OTH 1% (-)

    1,071 respondents, residents of Scotland, aged 16+, fieldwork 28 Oct - 4 Nov 2020. Changes w/ 2-7 Sep 2020.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,926
    Andy_JS said:

    Is a tie now impossible? Im too tired to work it out.

    It's possible IFF Biden only wins Georgia of the remaining.

    But Pennsylvania looks like it'll be Biden by 75-100,000 votes. And Nevada looks more solid than it did at the start of play today.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    Nevada explaining that the counting process has five distinct stages, which every paper goes through. Remarkable how complex they have made it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    https://twitter.com/reckless/status/1324405818788323333
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    Lots of Trump cohorts in the NV briefing, asking endless questions about 'voter fraud. illegal voters'. Let the people count , declare and then ask.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,125
    Will Nevada and Georgia be called soon so we don't have to wait for Penn?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    Mal557 said:

    Lots of Trump cohorts in the NV briefing, asking endless questions about 'voter fraud. illegal voters'. Let the people count , declare and then ask.

    Obviously they know like Farage's mate.

    https://twitter.com/Mikel_Jollett/status/1324342148632772615
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    malcolmg said:

    FPT
    YUFD said:

    » show previous quotes
    Only 47% Yes including undecideds

    The grand slam of the polls out today , SNP just keep going up , constituency up , regional list up , independence , up and Tories circling the drain and seeking to reach the depths of the Lib Dems, DROSS will get them there.
    Survation.
    @Survation
    ·
    2h
    NEW @Survation
    Poll –Scottish Parliament, Regional List vote

    SNP 43% (+2)
    LAB 19% (+1)
    CON 17% (-1)
    GRN 10% (-)
    LD 7% (-1)
    BXP 2% (-)
    UKIP 1% (-)
    OTH 1% (-)

    1,071 respondents, residents of Scotland, aged 16+, fieldwork 28 Oct - 4 Nov 2020. Changes w/ 2-7 Sep 2020.

    43% for the SNP on the list only about 1% up on 2016
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,926
    kamski said:

    Will Nevada and Georgia be called soon so we don't have to wait for Penn?

    Georgia is unlikely to be called today.

    Pennsylvania, on the other hand, may well get to a sensible lead today, and therefore be called.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Well, that was an easy fiver on Kamala.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    https://twitter.com/KeejayOV2/status/1324416329445756928
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    If Biden does win Georgia he will be the first Democratic presidential candidate to do so since Bill Clinton in 1992, even Bob Dole won Georgia in 1996 so Trump would have done worse there than Dole did
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324416240736178178
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    Ralstons seen enough in NV, 'no path for Trump'. Good enough for me.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    So the next big betting foreign election is France 2022.

    I plan to write PB threads on that election in French.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Another example of vote FUD.

    Arizona secretary of state says alleged voter Sharpie problems a 'nonissue
    https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/524629-arizona-secretary-of-state-says-alleged-voter-sharpie-problems-a
    ...Some Arizona voters have filed a lawsuit against Democratic County Recorder Adrian Fontes, the county Board of Supervisors and other officials of Maricopa County, Ariz., alleging that Sharpies were given to voters and damaged ballots due to the marker bleeding through, according to Fox News.

    The state's Republican Attorney General Mark Brnovich also called for an investigation into the use of Sharpies in a tweet.

    We have received hundreds of voter complaints regarding Sharpies at polling locations. Accordingly, we sent this letter to Maricopa County election officials. Let's get some answers. Read our letter here: https://t.co/c6FSFZiNj7 pic.twitter.com/HnZ16UTTrs

    — Mark Brnovich (@GeneralBrnovich) November 4, 2020
    "We have received hundreds of voter complaints regarding Sharpies at polling locations. Accordingly, we sent this letter to Maricopa County election officials. Let's get some answers," he tweeted including a link to the letter.

    Maricopa County recently responded to claims in a tweet.

    Sharpies are not a problem for our tabulation equipment, and the offset columns on ballots ensure that bleed through won’t impact your vote. #yourvotecounts https://t.co/6iAjBkzunO

    — Maricopa County (@maricopacounty) November 4, 2020...
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    Not crystal clear but sounds like far fewer votes still to count in NV than previously thought.

    There had been some duplication in how this number was previously reported.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,169
    edited November 2020
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/reckless/status/1324405818788323333

    Starts at 1:09:40.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    The most common reason for the large number of provisional ballots appears to be lack of ID (either in person, or as supplied with a postal vote). So people get a provisional paper and have to provide their ID subsequently. The large numbers of people turning up without the ID needed, despite it having been a long standing requirement, is notable.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,281
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So the next big betting foreign election is France 2022.

    I plan to write PB threads on that election in French.

    Ta gueule!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,169
    edited November 2020
    Something goes wrong with the edit function at the most inconvenient time.

    There's nothing wrong with the edit function, and I apologise to the mods for suggesting there is.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,169
    Andy_JS said:

    Something goes wrong with the edit function at the most inconvenient time.

    There's nothing wrong with the edit function, and I apologise to the mods for suggesting there is.

    Very funny.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    Nevada into 1.04 last matched. 96% chance Biden.
    Georgia into 1.34 .74% chnace Biden.
    Biden for the presidency I now calculate at 99%.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    FPT: Only because i was asked.
    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1324398489451769858?s=20

    The head of the ONS has literally said that the nation's top scientists have justified plunging the country into an economically catastrophic lockdown based knowingly on out-of-date and misleading data that doesn't justify the case made. This should quite clearly be a resigning matter, in any sensible interpretation of this. Simply "apologising" shouldn't be enough.

    But it won't be because the vast majority of the "sensible" criticism of Government policy comes from the angle of "lockdown hasn't been implemented quickly enough" and a general evidence light feeling that "we should be locking down as much as possible". It's an absolute scandal.

    Even if actually the policy is sound, and the Government is doing the right thing, it absolutely should be being done on the basis of the most accurate and up-to-date evidence, and that evidence should be offered as transparently as possible.

  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    365 just gone dems 3/10 GA. paddys still 4/7 if you think 365 are right.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So the next big betting foreign election is France 2022.

    I plan to write PB threads on that election in French.

    Surely it is the German Federal election next year?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    edited November 2020
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1324371433984790530

    Labour potentially could come second in Scotland with some work

    That also suggests they could pick up some SNP constituency seats in the central belt next year with Tory and LD tactical votes
    Yet if Mr Starmer has said he's open to indyref 2, precisely in order to peel off those pro-indy but previously labour voters ...
    SLab will pick up near zero Yes voters in Scotland, to win seats from the SNP they have to win Tory and LD Unionist tactical votes in the central belt.

    Starmer also said indyref2 was not needed soon he only did not rule out the possibility if the SNP won a majority next year but if SLab won seats from the SNP next year then the SNP would lose their majority at Holyrood and that would not apply anyway
    On those figures, SCUP is already getting confined to the Brexiter and Unionist bitter-enders, and the LDs to the shy Tories and the special constituencies. The potentyial Labour votes are pretty much all in the SNP, Greens or LDs - and fewer of those in a FPTP (forget Holyrood for now). Ian Murray is sui generis; nobody else in SLAB pulled off that trick last time, admittedly under Mr Corbyn - but then nobody seriously believed Mr Corbyn would win anyway, so it was safe to vote for Mr Murray and co. Now Mr Starmer is a far greater existential threat to the Tories.
    No, the votes Labour would get from the SNP are pretty much at a maximum the 7% who voted No in 2014 and are now voting SNP to take them from 45% to 52%, otherwise the combined Tory and LD vote is on 26% and outside of rural Scotland and the posher parts of Edinburgh and Aberdeen and the very poshest parts of suburban Glasgow every Scottish constituency seat is a straight SNP v SLab fight.

    Therefore SLab has to win over tactical votes from the Tories and LDs in those seats, mainly in the central belt, to make gains
    Hmm. You're still forgetting the Greens, and the folk who tend to vote socialist but Yes. And the Edinburgh constituencies at least can be very mixed indeed socially. I'd want to see more hard evidencve that tac tical voting wouild work when it has not worked before for anyone other than Ian Murray - who has a very, erm, distinctive attitude in his advising people how to vote, or not vote, for the SNP. But plenty of time yet.
    The Greens are irrelevant in constituency seats, they get almost all their votes on the list. The hard left socialists who vote Yes will also vote SNP on the constituency vote but socialist on the list so neither can be won over by SLab at the constituency seat level.

    Apart from Edinburgh West which is a LD v SNP battle and Edinburgh Central which is Ruth Davidson's seat I would agree every Edinburgh seat too at Holyrood (and indeed Westminster) is an SNP v SLab battle where SLab also has to win Unionist tactical votes.

    Murray has shown the way which is why he has a stonking 22% majority in Edinburgh South and is the only SLab MP, other SLab candidates must follow his lead and start appealing to Tories and LDs
    FPT:
    You're still neglecting the point that there is a lot of tactical voting already thanks to the Greens and Trots (which admittedly could go either way for Labour) - compare Holyrood and Westminster votes (as indeed you imply).

    And, erm, not to be unkind, but as an easily identifiable Conservative Party official, should you really be publicly promoting voting for Labour, at a time when having the Labour Party candidates appeal to Tory and LD voters is completely what you do not want UK-wide?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,169
    edited November 2020
    The start of the court hearing sounds like a ZX Spectrum computer game loading.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    paulyork64 said:

    365 just gone dems 3/10 GA. paddys still 4/7 if you think 365 are right.

    sorry they've gone 3/10 now too. seems a big move tbh.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So the next big betting foreign election is France 2022.

    I plan to write PB threads on that election in French.

    Surely it is the German Federal election next year?
    Scottish and Welsh elections.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    edited November 2020
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So the next big betting foreign election is France 2022.

    I plan to write PB threads on that election in French.

    Surely it is the German Federal election next year?
    The German Federal election isn't as a big betting event as a French Presidential election.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    edited November 2020
    MikeL said:

    Not crystal clear but sounds like far fewer votes still to count in NV than previously thought.

    There had been some duplication in how this number was previously reported.

    So about 60,000 mail ballots received yesterday and today (but postmarked election day or before) and 60,000 provisionals. 120,000 total. Mail ballots will break very heavily for Ds as always, based on all prev provs, Ralston says provs will be about 50/50 , so Bidens lead will increase a lot, dont think it will even be that close in the end. Only downside all counting and declaring wont be finished til Saturday or Sunday!! Not sure why, but expect lots more Trump troops deployed there because of that decision.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    Standing on my balcony with a drink listening to the whoosh and crackle and smelling the cordite and sulphur. Bliss.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    tlg86 said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So the next big betting foreign election is France 2022.

    I plan to write PB threads on that election in French.

    Surely it is the German Federal election next year?
    Scottish and Welsh elections.
    North of Tyne mayor is more important, surely?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    Fun fact, in looking over random counties to see which was the most Democratic or mosr Republican in a given state, turns out that the most Trump supporting county in Wyoming is Crook county.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    tlg86 said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So the next big betting foreign election is France 2022.

    I plan to write PB threads on that election in French.

    Surely it is the German Federal election next year?
    Scottish and Welsh elections.
    Two points

    1) Wales and Scotland aren't foreign elections (yet!)

    2) As much as I love them, 2011 and 2016, were really profitable, they aren't big betting events.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    paulyork64 said:

    paulyork64 said:

    365 just gone dems 3/10 GA. paddys still 4/7 if you think 365 are right.

    sorry they've gone 3/10 now too. seems a big move tbh.
    I was onto this too. I was denied Bet365 cus I`ve reached the poxy daily limit. Missed Paddy Power and BF Sportsbook. All were 4/7 Georgia.
  • lockhimuplockhimup Posts: 59
    Wonder when we'll get Kamala/Trump crossover?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    Gallowgate said:

    tlg86 said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So the next big betting foreign election is France 2022.

    I plan to write PB threads on that election in French.

    Surely it is the German Federal election next year?
    Scottish and Welsh elections.
    North of Tyne mayor is more important, surely?
    Look, I know the Mackem accent sounds foreign to us speakers of the Queen's English, but North Tyne isn't foreign.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    williamglenn said:

    Perhaps Joe Biden could be the first zero-term President and hand over to Kamala before the inauguration.

    There was a time (1849) when Zachary Taylor refused to take office on the first day of his term as it was a Sunday.

    So there is an arguable case that David Rice Atchison, President Pro Tempore of the Senate, was President solely for Sunday, March 4th 1849.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/JamesKanag/status/1324363706189385732?s=19

    Will never catch on.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So the next big betting foreign election is France 2022.

    I plan to write PB threads on that election in French.

    Be prepared for lots of good moanings about that.
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,284
    Barnesian said:

    Standing on my balcony with a drink listening to the whoosh and crackle and smelling the cordite and sulphur. Bliss.

    Who is using cordite in fireworks?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    edited November 2020
    paulyork64 said:

    365 just gone dems 3/10 GA. paddys still 4/7 if you think 365 are right.

    I`ve been hammering BF -63.5 h`cap market. Biden was 1.8 - 2.0 until only half an hour ago. This was, in effect, a play on Biden winning Georgia.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    From what I've just heard from Nevada there is no path for Trump.

    Jack W CALLS Nevada for Biden - Six Electoral Votes.

    Now 359 EC

    Biden requires only one of AZ GA or PA to reach 270.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    kle4 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/JamesKanag/status/1324363706189385732?s=19

    Will never catch on.
    I can't tell you how much Jeremy Corbyn's message that only Labour could unlock the potential of minorities boiled my piss.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    tlg86 said:

    First.

    FAKE NEWS!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Gallowgate said:

    tlg86 said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So the next big betting foreign election is France 2022.

    I plan to write PB threads on that election in French.

    Surely it is the German Federal election next year?
    Scottish and Welsh elections.
    North of Tyne mayor is more important, surely?
    Look, I know the Mackem accent sounds foreign to us speakers of the Queen's English, but North Tyne isn't foreign.
    :D Nice try but I'm not biting.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 682
    CNN - PA SoS believes PA will be called today.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578
    JACK_W said:

    From what I've just heard from Nevada there is no path for Trump.

    Jack W CALLS Nevada for Biden - Six Electoral Votes.

    Now 359 EC

    Biden requires only one of AZ GA or PA to reach 270.

    STOP THE COUNT ARSE!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    edited November 2020
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1324371433984790530

    Labour potentially could come second in Scotland with some work

    That also suggests they could pick up some SNP constituency seats in the central belt next year with Tory and LD tactical votes
    Yet if Mr Starmer has said he's open to indyref 2, precisely in order to peel off those pro-indy but previously labour voters ...
    SLab will pick up near zero Yes voters in Scotland, to win seats from the SNP they have to win Tory and LD Unionist tactical votes in the central belt.

    Starmer also said indyref2 was not needed soon he only did not rule out the possibility if the SNP won a majority next year but if SLab won seats from the SNP next year then the SNP would lose their majority at Holyrood and that would not apply anyway
    On those figures, SCUP is already getting confined to the Brexiter and Unionist bitter-enders, and the LDs to the shy Tories and the special constituencies. The potentyial Labour votes are pretty much all in the SNP, Greens or LDs - and fewer of those in a FPTP (forget Holyrood for now). Ian Murray is sui generis; nobody else in SLAB pulled off that trick last time, admittedly under Mr Corbyn - but then nobody seriously believed Mr Corbyn would win anyway, so it was safe to vote for Mr Murray and co. Now Mr Starmer is a far greater existential threat to the Tories.
    No, the votes Labour would get from the SNP are pretty much at a maximum the 7% who voted No in 2014 and are now voting SNP to take them from 45% to 52%, otherwise the combined Tory and LD vote is on 26% and outside of rural Scotland and the posher parts of Edinburgh and Aberdeen and the very poshest parts of suburban Glasgow every Scottish constituency seat is a straight SNP v SLab fight.

    Therefore SLab has to win over tactical votes from the Tories and LDs in those seats, mainly in the central belt, to make gains
    Hmm. You're still forgetting the Greens, and the folk who tend to vote socialist but Yes. And the Edinburgh constituencies at least can be very mixed indeed socially. I'd want to see more hard evidencve that tac tical voting wouild work when it has not worked before for anyone other than Ian Murray - who has a very, erm, distinctive attitude in his advising people how to vote, or not vote, for the SNP. But plenty of time yet.
    The Greens are irrelevant in constituency seats, they get almost all their votes on the list. The hard left socialists who vote Yes will also vote SNP on the constituency vote but socialist on the list so neither can be won over by SLab at the constituency seat level.

    Apart from Edinburgh West which is a LD v SNP battle and Edinburgh Central which is Ruth Davidson's seat I would agree every Edinburgh seat too at Holyrood (and indeed Westminster) is an SNP v SLab battle where SLab also has to win Unionist tactical votes.

    Murray has shown the way which is why he has a stonking 22% majority in Edinburgh South and is the only SLab MP, other SLab candidates must follow his lead and start appealing to Tories and LDs
    FPT:
    You're still neglecting the point that there is a lot of tactical voting already thanks to the Greens and Trots (which admittedly could go either way for Labour) - compare Holyrood and Westminster votes (as indeed you imply).

    And, erm, not to be unkind, but as an easily identifiable Conservative Party official, should you really be publicly promoting voting for Labour, at a time when having the Labour Party candidates appeal to Tory and LD voters is completely what you do not want UK-wide?
    Greens and Trots may vote Labour at Westminster level, for Holyrood constituency seats they will always vote SNP.

    In England and Wales I would of course only advocate voting Tory as Labour or the LDs are the Tories main opponents, in Scotland however the SNP are the Tories main opponents and saving the Union the Tories main cause so outside of rural Scotland and a few posh urban seats where I would advocate voting Tory at the constituency level for most Holyrood constutuencies it makes sense as a Unionist to back voting SLab in central belt seats to beat the SNP and Tory on the list
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    kle4 said:

    Fun fact, in looking over random counties to see which was the most Democratic or mosr Republican in a given state, turns out that the most Trump supporting county in Wyoming is Crook county.

    When I was in St Lucia, a while back, there was a very large sign on the road to the hotel, advertising the candidacy of Mr Robber for elective office.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Stocky said:

    paulyork64 said:

    365 just gone dems 3/10 GA. paddys still 4/7 if you think 365 are right.

    I`ve been hammering BF -63.5 h`cap market. Biden was 1.8 - 2.0 until only half an hour ago. This was, in effect, a play on Biden winning Georgia.
    seems a big move though when no new votes have come in for about an hour.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/JamesKanag/status/1324363706189385732?s=19

    Will never catch on.
    I can't tell you how much Jeremy Corbyn's message that only Labour could unlock the potential of minorities boiled my piss.
    Have you or @Casino_Royale visited a urologist recently ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    JACK_W said:

    From what I've just heard from Nevada there is no path for Trump.

    Jack W CALLS Nevada for Biden - Six Electoral Votes.

    Now 359 EC

    Biden requires only one of AZ GA or PA to reach 270.

    STOP THE COUNT ARSE!
    They have, by voting in Biden to replace him.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    alex_ said:

    FPT: Only because i was asked.

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1324398489451769858?s=20

    The head of the ONS has literally said that the nation's top scientists have justified plunging the country into an economically catastrophic lockdown based knowingly on out-of-date and misleading data that doesn't justify the case made. This should quite clearly be a resigning matter, in any sensible interpretation of this. Simply "apologising" shouldn't be enough.

    But it won't be because the vast majority of the "sensible" criticism of Government policy comes from the angle of "lockdown hasn't been implemented quickly enough" and a general evidence light feeling that "we should be locking down as much as possible". It's an absolute scandal.

    Even if actually the policy is sound, and the Government is doing the right thing, it absolutely should be being done on the basis of the most accurate and up-to-date evidence, and that evidence should be offered as transparently as possible.

    Link to read about it, if this is what you mean
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54831334

    Disgraceful ... seems to be how UK govt now works.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831
    Betfair finally agrees with 538's prediction!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    Gallowgate said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Gallowgate said:

    tlg86 said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So the next big betting foreign election is France 2022.

    I plan to write PB threads on that election in French.

    Surely it is the German Federal election next year?
    Scottish and Welsh elections.
    North of Tyne mayor is more important, surely?
    Look, I know the Mackem accent sounds foreign to us speakers of the Queen's English, but North Tyne isn't foreign.
    :D Nice try but I'm not biting.
    The thing that surprised me when I first learned about it was that there is about 10 miles between Sunderland and Newcastle.

    I had thought it was a proper gap like the one between Manchester and Leeds or Manchester & Liverpool.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    Ralston calling NV.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    edited November 2020
    BF "Trump Electoral College Votes" market 1.72 for the range 210-239 has to be taken. If you think Biden will win Georgia (and PA and AZ).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/JamesKanag/status/1324363706189385732?s=19

    Will never catch on.
    I can't tell you how much Jeremy Corbyn's message that only Labour could unlock the potential of minorities boiled my piss.
    Have you or @Casino_Royale visited a urologist recently ?
    Last year.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    Midterm turnout in 2022 is going to be a snoozer. Who is going to get out of bed to vote for or against Biden ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    JACK_W said:

    From what I've just heard from Nevada there is no path for Trump.

    Jack W CALLS Nevada for Biden - Six Electoral Votes.

    Now 359 EC

    Biden requires only one of AZ GA or PA to reach 270.

    359?

    I think you've given some people palpitations.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/JamesKanag/status/1324363706189385732?s=19

    Will never catch on.
    I can't tell you how much Jeremy Corbyn's message that only Labour could unlock the potential of minorities boiled my piss.
    Because you didn't know how much to thank him?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    What would be really funny is if a judge said to the Republicans,

    ‘Yes, there’s clear evidence of fucking massive fraud. But you still lost, so your cheating had no effect on the result.’
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,770
    Stocky said:

    paulyork64 said:

    365 just gone dems 3/10 GA. paddys still 4/7 if you think 365 are right.

    I`ve been hammering BF -63.5 h`cap market. Biden was 1.8 - 2.0 until only half an hour ago. This was, in effect, a play on Biden winning Georgia.
    Am I missing something on this market? Trump currently has 214 ECV's (217 once you include Alaska) - and that's not counting any of NV, AZ, GA, PA, NC. 217+63.5 = 280.5 which is greater than 270 - so Trump should be at 1.1 or tighter on this market surely?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    paulyork64 said:

    Stocky said:

    paulyork64 said:

    365 just gone dems 3/10 GA. paddys still 4/7 if you think 365 are right.

    I`ve been hammering BF -63.5 h`cap market. Biden was 1.8 - 2.0 until only half an hour ago. This was, in effect, a play on Biden winning Georgia.
    seems a big move though when no new votes have come in for about an hour.
    If you look at the precincts with votes o/s and do the maths Biden will very likely take Georgia. Almost a certainty I`d say.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    Pulpstar said:

    Midterm turnout in 2022 is going to be a snoozer. Who is going to get out of bed to vote for or against Biden ?

    I suspect turnout will be determined by the behaviour of a 6-3 GOP SCOTUS.

    I reckon that's going to impact the turnouts for the Senate races.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    Fysics_Teacher said:

    Barnesian said:

    Standing on my balcony with a drink listening to the whoosh and crackle and smelling the cordite and sulphur. Bliss.

    Who is using cordite in fireworks?
    Perhaps it is the Barnes riflemen.
    What is the smell from fireworks? Gunpowder?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    Malmesbury said:

    kle4 said:

    Fun fact, in looking over random counties to see which was the most Democratic or mosr Republican in a given state, turns out that the most Trump supporting county in Wyoming is Crook county.

    When I was in St Lucia, a while back, there was a very large sign on the road to the hotel, advertising the candidacy of Mr Robber for elective office.
    No one will ever beat Jaime Sin, high ranking member of the Catholic Church - Cardinal Sin.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    edited November 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    Midterm turnout in 2022 is going to be a snoozer. Who is going to get out of bed to vote for or against Biden ?

    Trumpsters on a protest vote and establishment Republicans to keep the left in cheque, Democratic turnout will likely collapse compared to 2018 and 2020
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,892
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Midterm turnout in 2022 is going to be a snoozer. Who is going to get out of bed to vote for or against Biden ?

    I suspect turnout will be determined by the behaviour of a 6-3 GOP SCOTUS.

    I reckon that's going to impact the turnouts for the Senate races.
    Loads of Americans seem happy enough with ACB etc on the court. Probably won't be when she starts ruling away medicare.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113
    Lennon said:

    Stocky said:

    paulyork64 said:

    365 just gone dems 3/10 GA. paddys still 4/7 if you think 365 are right.

    I`ve been hammering BF -63.5 h`cap market. Biden was 1.8 - 2.0 until only half an hour ago. This was, in effect, a play on Biden winning Georgia.
    Am I missing something on this market? Trump currently has 214 ECV's (217 once you include Alaska) - and that's not counting any of NV, AZ, GA, PA, NC. 217+63.5 = 280.5 which is greater than 270 - so Trump should be at 1.1 or tighter on this market surely?
    I have a very confident end point of Biden 306, Trump 232. Difference 74. So Biden -63.5 pays out.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So the next big betting foreign election is France 2022.

    I plan to write PB threads on that election in French.

    Macron nailed on. He's following almost the perfect electoral strategy.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Midterm turnout in 2022 is going to be a snoozer. Who is going to get out of bed to vote for or against Biden ?

    I suspect turnout will be determined by the behaviour of a 6-3 GOP SCOTUS.

    I reckon that's going to impact the turnouts for the Senate races.
    Loads of Americans seem happy enough with ACB etc on the court. Probably won't be when she starts ruling away medicare.
    That's what I'm thinking.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    alex_ said:

    FPT: Only because i was asked.

    isam said:

    https://twitter.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1324398489451769858?s=20

    Even if actually the policy is sound, and the Government is doing the right thing, it absolutely should be being done on the basis of the most accurate and up-to-date evidence, and that evidence should be offered as transparently as possible.

    Good, sensible post
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/JamesKanag/status/1324363706189385732?s=19

    Will never catch on.
    I can't tell you how much Jeremy Corbyn's message that only Labour could unlock the potential of minorities boiled my piss.
    Because you didn't know how much to thank him?
    Yes.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Andy_JS said:

    The start of the court hearing sounds like a ZX Spectrum computer game loading.

    That's probably what they're using to process all the ballots, which explains a lot.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Stocky said:

    paulyork64 said:

    Stocky said:

    paulyork64 said:

    365 just gone dems 3/10 GA. paddys still 4/7 if you think 365 are right.

    I`ve been hammering BF -63.5 h`cap market. Biden was 1.8 - 2.0 until only half an hour ago. This was, in effect, a play on Biden winning Georgia.
    seems a big move though when no new votes have come in for about an hour.
    If you look at the precincts with votes o/s and do the maths Biden will very likely take Georgia. Almost a certainty I`d say.
    agreed but i think that was looking the case for some time. maybe it was just someone with a few quid in his BF account worked it out and acted on it now.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/JamesKanag/status/1324363706189385732?s=19

    Will never catch on.
    I can't tell you how much Jeremy Corbyn's message that only Labour could unlock the potential of minorities boiled my piss.
    Have you or @Casino_Royale visited a urologist recently ?
    Actually my wee has smelt a bit sweet recently* after I've eaten a lot of sweet food/been drinking.

    Yes, yes diabetes but I'm 38 and not overweight, and fine usually, so it's a bit weird.

    (*I haven't tried boiling it)
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    I assume the same is true for other channels but it really is amazing how CNN can sustain the coverage of the same four or five tables and maps for days on end.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    kle4 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    https://twitter.com/JamesKanag/status/1324363706189385732?s=19

    Will never catch on.
    I was waiting for Sunil to make the obvious Depeche Mode reference..
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Barnesian said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    Barnesian said:

    Standing on my balcony with a drink listening to the whoosh and crackle and smelling the cordite and sulphur. Bliss.

    Who is using cordite in fireworks?
    Perhaps it is the Barnes riflemen.
    What is the smell from fireworks? Gunpowder?
    I used to work with a gentlemen from Texas - he owned a ranch that, according to him, consisted entirely of boulders and tree stumps.

    Being a trained explosives expert, he would spend the day carefully placing ANFO with a bit of dynamite to kick it off, and wiring it all up. Come evening, he would sit on his porch, pressing buttons and drinking out of a jam jar....

    He was well regarded in the oil business. Apparently an explosives man with all his fingers is rare and to be respected.....
  • Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,284
    Barnesian said:

    Fysics_Teacher said:

    Barnesian said:

    Standing on my balcony with a drink listening to the whoosh and crackle and smelling the cordite and sulphur. Bliss.

    Who is using cordite in fireworks?
    Perhaps it is the Barnes riflemen.
    What is the smell from fireworks? Gunpowder?
    I'm no expert, but I always assumed the sulphur smell of fireworks was because of the gunpowder. You get the colours by adding different trace elements (like the flame test in chemistry that Bunsen invented his burner for).
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,637
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So the next big betting foreign election is France 2022.

    I plan to write PB threads on that election in French.

    Je M'appelle Grand Jean Hiboux

    Allez Le Parti Socialiste
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So the next big betting foreign election is France 2022.

    I plan to write PB threads on that election in French.

    Macron nailed on. He's following almost the perfect electoral strategy.
    Macron is 1.92 on the Betfair next President market.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,770
    Stocky said:

    Lennon said:

    Stocky said:

    paulyork64 said:

    365 just gone dems 3/10 GA. paddys still 4/7 if you think 365 are right.

    I`ve been hammering BF -63.5 h`cap market. Biden was 1.8 - 2.0 until only half an hour ago. This was, in effect, a play on Biden winning Georgia.
    Am I missing something on this market? Trump currently has 214 ECV's (217 once you include Alaska) - and that's not counting any of NV, AZ, GA, PA, NC. 217+63.5 = 280.5 which is greater than 270 - so Trump should be at 1.1 or tighter on this market surely?
    I have a very confident end point of Biden 306, Trump 232. Difference 74. So Biden -63.5 pays out.
    Thanks - thought that I was missing something obvious - mental block about handicap markets being the difference not vs the post. In which case the - 100.5 market might be worth looking at as a proxy for Biden sneaking NC as well (where I agree with Robert that I think he might) for and end point of 321-217
This discussion has been closed.