The way people get on about Trump as if he is an evil genius who can somehow turn everything around by nefarious means. Way too much credit. He is a man and a weak one at that.
Please, please pretty please let Fox be the one to declare Biden the winner.
Karma’s a bitch...but it would be absolutely pant-wettingly funny.
I'm suprised the other networks dont call NV just to try to push Fox into calling the election for Biden , yes
I'm not sure the Fox/Trump love-in is quite what it was. Jared was on the phone to Rupert on Tuesday night apparently to get him to pull the Arizona call. Obviously they wouldn't. There are a number of stories going around that say he wants to launch a rival network, or join the one he's been praising to the skies recently (whose name I forget), and they may not be that averse to calling against a potential rival.
In the UK we counted 33.5 million votes in 9 hours, so counting 160 million votes should take 43 hours using that metric.
They aren't counting 160 million votes, they are counting at least a billion and more like 2 billion due to how many elections and propositions are on the average ballot paper
The way people get on about Trump as if he is an evil genius who can somehow turn everything around by nefarious means. Way too much credit. He is a man and a weak one at that.
Yup. 270 to win.
And then it’s all over.
Everything else is gravy.
Not if you have money bet on individual states and overall margins.
Unbelievable. One GA county printed its own ballots and they aren’t the right size for the counting machine. So they are scaling them one at a time so they can go through the machine.
Seriously, how long does it take to count 11,300 votes?
The mail ballot machines can do 750 ballots an hour I have read. So depending on the number of machines... A really long time.
A person can go much faster and people are cheap and temporary to hire.
America has a lot to learn from us about conducting elections.
There are more than a dozen votes in an individual ballot.
Hire more people or have a pencil, paper and person approach for the presidential ballot and do the other ones with the machines.
This is just farcical. The US is supposed to be a first world country and they can't even count the votes of the most important election they have every four years.
I have no idea whatsoever why he is lauded on here as some kind of seer.
(As polite a chap as he is)
It's Thursday night. We still don't have a winner. Mr Ed was nearer the mark than all those here who were only arguing over how big Biden's margin would - bigly or yuge...
So I cut him some slack.
(I of course called the Biden win at one minute past midnight, Wednesday morning. But I expressed no opinion as to how tight it would be.)
He's been pushing conspiracy theories, misunderstanding the entire mathematical field of statistical sampling and until recently resolutely trying to mislead people about the course of the Pennsylvania count in the face of mountains of evidence to the contrary.
Re politeness, I think you’ll find that the only time I tend to bite is when people have been rude to me. That includes you. You seem like one of those typical whiners who gives it out but can’t take it and cries “it’s not fair” when gets challenged.
Re PA, I explained my workings, you challenged it, I said ok I accept that and said no more. @Barnesian seemed to think they had merit
Re conspiracy theories, err no. What I said were there were questions and reported what I heard the Trump campaign said. I also said if it was the reverse you would all be crying foul.
I'm not saying the official votespa.com website is a pile of shit but it is showing one county as having -3 mail ballots to count.
That is because - as we discussed yesterday - the total vote figure is an estimate and not the actual figure. Once a country confirms it has completed, the figures are balanced by adjusting the amount outstanding to zero
Unbelievable. One GA county printed its own ballots and they aren’t the right size for the counting machine. So they are scaling them one at a time so they can go through the machine.
That is unbelievable. Why not just count the bloody things by hand?
Honestly, these Yanks. Team America nailed it with that computer malfunction scene.
Be nice to know the uk numbers but apparently not possible to do this...
58,000 cases implies 3000-5000 new hospitalisations, and ~1000 in ICU? In one day
25,177 seems to be the days number.
Perhaps though not the basis you wanted.
I think we test a bit more than France, so they're perhaps in 2-4x a worse place than us.
We'll have a spike after tonight anyway. Huddled up and daft Guy-Fawkers.
It's pretty shit, wherever you look, across Europe now. From Russia to Portugal
How's Putin's vaccine working, I wonder?
Certainly doesn't seem to be having any noticeable effect - infections higher than ever. The Chinese don't seem to be having a fresh wave, though - not sure if that's rigid distancing or their vaccine or something else. But it'd be good to know, irrespective of what we think of the Chinese government.
In the UK we counted 33.5 million votes in 9 hours, so counting 160 million votes should take 43 hours using that metric.
Do we know on what days each state finally completes its count ?
And how that varies from election to election ?
Almost none of the counts are fully finished. There are usually military ballots that are still to be recieved, and in many cases provisional ballots that can either end up being counted or not.
What happens, though, is that when there is a commaning lead, the AP/CNN/Fox "declare" for a candidate. That's the point at which they are supposed to be 99.99% certain of a result.
Now, some states allow ballots posted before (or even on) election day to count so long as they're recieved in the following couple of days (AZ, PA) or even a whole week after the election (North Carolina). Normally, the winner is clear long before these are counted, so no-one really worries about them.
To repeat what I said earlier, I don't think the Supreme Court is going to weigh in on anything electoral related without overwhelming evidence. Simply, whatever their political views, they're mostly professionals and they all have their eyes on the history books. (Plus, the last thing they want to do is to encourage the Dems to pack the court when they next get to 50 Senators.)
Alan Dershowitz on Bush-Gore 2000 Supreme Court decision:
"The decision in the Florida election case may be ranked as the single most corrupt decision in Supreme Court history, because it is the only one that I know of where the majority justices decided as they did because of the personal identity and political affiliation of the litigants. This was cheating, and a violation of the judicial oath"
Hope you are right, but can't share your optimism if there are just 1 or 2 states in it. Hopefully its 3,4 or even 5.
But the bar for overturning something - especially in an election - has to be high. And Bush was leading.
Kavanaugh recently said that states invite "chaos and suspicions of impropriety" if "thousands of absentee ballots flow in after election day and potentially flip the results of an election."
Well thats just happened, how will he respond if given the opportunity? I hope I am being overly cynical rather than you being overly naive here.
Kavanaugh is correct there.
Are there any other western countries which take weeks to fully count elections ?
Not a "western" country, I know, but India counted the 615 million votes at the 2019 election within 4 days.
Why doesn't the USA have the Presidential election on one day/week/ month, Congress elections on another day/week/ month, state elections on another day/week/month and local elections on another day/week/month ?
Unbelievable. One GA county printed its own ballots and they aren’t the right size for the counting machine. So they are scaling them one at a time so they can go through the machine.
That is unbelievable. Why not just count the bloody things by hand?
Honestly, these Yanks. Team America nailed it with that computer malfunction scene.
They are actually copying them by hand onto a paper the right size and then putting it into the machine
Seriously, how long does it take to count 11,300 votes?
The mail ballot machines can do 750 ballots an hour I have read. So depending on the number of machines... A really long time.
A person can go much faster and people are cheap and temporary to hire.
America has a lot to learn from us about conducting elections.
There are more than a dozen votes in an individual ballot.
Hire more people or have a pencil, paper and person approach for the presidential ballot and do the other ones with the machines.
This is just farcical. The US is supposed to be a first world country and they can't even count the votes of the most important election they have every four years.
Georgia guy saying it took 5 days to count 5000 votes when they had to do them by hand!
They also have to prepare for four separate run off elections in the next 2 months on multiple dates, and manage a potential recount and legal challenges!
To repeat what I said earlier, I don't think the Supreme Court is going to weigh in on anything electoral related without overwhelming evidence. Simply, whatever their political views, they're mostly professionals and they all have their eyes on the history books. (Plus, the last thing they want to do is to encourage the Dems to pack the court when they next get to 50 Senators.)
Alan Dershowitz on Bush-Gore 2000 Supreme Court decision:
"The decision in the Florida election case may be ranked as the single most corrupt decision in Supreme Court history, because it is the only one that I know of where the majority justices decided as they did because of the personal identity and political affiliation of the litigants. This was cheating, and a violation of the judicial oath"
Hope you are right, but can't share your optimism if there are just 1 or 2 states in it. Hopefully its 3,4 or even 5.
But the bar for overturning something - especially in an election - has to be high. And Bush was leading.
Kavanaugh recently said that states invite "chaos and suspicions of impropriety" if "thousands of absentee ballots flow in after election day and potentially flip the results of an election."
Well thats just happened, how will he respond if given the opportunity? I hope I am being overly cynical rather than you being overly naive here.
Kavanaugh is correct there.
Are there any other western countries which take weeks to fully count elections ?
Not a "western" country, I know, but India counted the 615 million votes at the 2019 election within 4 days.
It's a lot simpler when all of the votes from a village are for the same candidate.
The way people get on about Trump as if he is an evil genius who can somehow turn everything around by nefarious means. Way too much credit. He is a man and a weak one at that.
Yup. 270 to win.
And then it’s all over.
Everything else is gravy.
Not if you have money bet on individual states and overall margins.
Unbelievable. One GA county printed its own ballots and they aren’t the right size for the counting machine. So they are scaling them one at a time so they can go through the machine.
That is unbelievable. Why not just count the bloody things by hand?
Honestly, these Yanks. Team America nailed it with that computer malfunction scene.
They are actually copying them by hand onto a paper the right size and then putting it into the machine
FFS, WHAT COULD POSSIBLY GO WRONG WITH THAT?
I hate it when even Donald Trump has sort of a point....
Seriously, how long does it take to count 11,300 votes?
The mail ballot machines can do 750 ballots an hour I have read. So depending on the number of machines... A really long time.
A person can go much faster and people are cheap and temporary to hire.
America has a lot to learn from us about conducting elections.
There are more than a dozen votes in an individual ballot.
Hire more people or have a pencil, paper and person approach for the presidential ballot and do the other ones with the machines.
This is just farcical. The US is supposed to be a first world country and they can't even count the votes of the most important election they have every four years.
Georgia guy saying it took 5 days to count 5000 votes when they had to do them by hand!
They also have to prepare for four separate run off elections in the next 2 months on multiple dates, and manage a potential recount and legal challenges!
Do they have one old biddy who forgot her glasses at home doing the counting or something?
In the UK we counted 33.5 million votes in 9 hours, so counting 160 million votes should take 43 hours using that metric.
Do we know on what days each state finally completes its count ?
And how that varies from election to election ?
Almost none of the counts are fully finished. There are usually military ballots that are still to be recieved, and in many cases provisional ballots that can either end up being counted or not.
What happens, though, is that when there is a commaning lead, the AP/CNN/Fox "declare" for a candidate. That's the point at which they are supposed to be 99.99% certain of a result.
Now, some states allow ballots posted before (or even on) election day to count so long as they're recieved in the following couple of days (AZ, PA) or even a whole week after the election (North Carolina). Normally, the winner is clear long before these are counted, so no-one really worries about them.
Sure I know all that.
But the whole 'voters who live abroad' reason also applies to every western country but they don't piss around for weeks on end.
Unbelievable. One GA county printed its own ballots and they aren’t the right size for the counting machine. So they are scaling them one at a time so they can go through the machine.
That is unbelievable. Why not just count the bloody things by hand?
Honestly, these Yanks. Team America nailed it with that computer malfunction scene.
They are actually copying them by hand onto a paper the right size and then putting it into the machine
In shock news people who voted for the racist didn't like anti-racist protests.
Actually that's a gross oversimplification typical of the idiocy this side of the water. Abigail Spanberger the Democrat Congresswoman has been very clear that the protests move into Defund the Police talk has cost the House Dems serious problems. She should know.
It's not racist if you are a citizen and others are demanding the police effectively don't get funding ie dont operate, its perfectly understandable that MANY have a problem with it.
In the UK we counted 33.5 million votes in 9 hours, so counting 160 million votes should take 43 hours using that metric.
Do we know on what days each state finally completes its count ?
And how that varies from election to election ?
Almost none of the counts are fully finished. There are usually military ballots that are still to be recieved, and in many cases provisional ballots that can either end up being counted or not.
What happens, though, is that when there is a commaning lead, the AP/CNN/Fox "declare" for a candidate. That's the point at which they are supposed to be 99.99% certain of a result.
Now, some states allow ballots posted before (or even on) election day to count so long as they're recieved in the following couple of days (AZ, PA) or even a whole week after the election (North Carolina). Normally, the winner is clear long before these are counted, so no-one really worries about them.
Sure I know all that.
But the whole 'voters who live abroad' reason also applies to every western country but they don't piss around for weeks on end.
Most western country does not have an electoral college system with FPTP in only 51 "Constituencies". That is what causes 0.01% of the votes to be so crucial.
GA has almost ground to a halt - this press conference suggests very little progress is being made.
Yup.
All eyes on PA.
Just to prove I can do conspiracy theories on both sides
I did say earlier that with the SOS being Republican that, if it looked like Trump wasn’t winning, they would be scouring the rural counties for where they could add extra votes.
I don’t know what county this is but, if I had to bet, I would say probably strongly R
(Apologies if the SOS did mention the county and I missed it)
GA has almost ground to a halt - this press conference suggests very little progress is being made.
Yup.
All eyes on PA.
Just to prove I can do conspiracy theories on both sides
I did say earlier that with the SOS being Republican that, if it looked like Trump wasn’t winning, they would be scouring the rural counties for where they could add extra votes.
I don’t know what county this is but, if I had to bet, I would say probably strongly R
(Apologies if the SOS did mention the county and I missed it)
PS I haven’t seen the latest count on the Senate race but given the percentages earlier, there may be implications there
The PA crossover moment is going to be quite something (assuming the other 3 don't declare before it happens).
I'm pretty sure we'll get PA first.
Georgia is busy correcting ballots that are the wrong size, Nevada appears to be working to a "count one ballot per hour" rule and I can only assume that the entire state of Arizona has detached itself from the planet and is now drifting somewhere out in space given we haven't heard a peep from them in hours.
Why doesn't the USA have the Presidential election on one day/week/ month, Congress elections on another day/week/ month, state elections on another day/week/month and local elections on another day/week/month ?
And so the self-indulgent actions of the 'progressives' cost the Democrats the overwhelming victory they needed to have any chance of putting their progressive policies into practice. Nice job, idiots!
Why doesn't the USA have the Presidential election on one day/week/ month, Congress elections on another day/week/ month, state elections on another day/week/month and local elections on another day/week/month ?
There wouldn't be time for SCOTUS to get through all the lawsuits.
Why doesn't the USA have the Presidential election on one day/week/ month, Congress elections on another day/week/ month, state elections on another day/week/month and local elections on another day/week/month ?
The PA crossover moment is going to be quite something (assuming the other 3 don't declare before it happens).
I'm pretty sure we'll get PA first.
Georgia is busy correcting ballots that are the wrong size, Nevada appears to be working to a "count one ballot per hour" rule and I can only assume that the entire state of Arizona has detached itself from the planet and is now drifting somewhere out in space given we haven't heard a peep from them in hours.
Have tried to follow the twists and turns during the day and hopefully plenty have made a quick profit (or even a slow one).
Can Biden take all of Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Georgia? Unlikely but not impossible. That would end up 322-216 which would look much more comfortable than the base numbers suggest. Currently, a 2.1% lead for Clinton has become a 2.7% for Biden so that's a 0.3% swing but in terms of ECV a considerable shift potentially.
Basically, the Democrats and Republicans have 20 "safe" states (including DC for the blues).
Of the remaining 11 "marginal" states, Trump won 10 last time (the exception being Nevada). So far, Biden has flipped Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona and to win the other three he lost last time, would leave the Democrats with seven and the Republicans with four.
As an aside, does anyone know who would be Secretary of State in a Biden administration?
In shock news people who voted for the racist didn't like anti-racist protests.
Actually that's a gross oversimplification typical of the idiocy this side of the water. Abigail Spanberger the Democrat Congresswoman has been very clear that the protests move into Defund the Police talk has cost the House Dems serious problems. She should know.
It's not racist if you are a citizen and others are demanding the police effectively don't get funding ie dont operate, its perfectly understandable that MANY have a problem with it.
Defund the police was an incredibly stupid and misleading slogan to adopt
Trump case dismissed in Michigan. Filed at the wrong time, against the wrong person.
How incompetent are these loons?
Trump said file lots of lawsuits, so they're just randomly filing lots of hopeless lawsuits.
Who do you imagine is going to finance these lawsuits?
Am I the only one quite happy with the lawsuits? They do delay things a bit, but do on the other hand expose the claims of fiddling to proper scrutiny. I expect most of them to be chucked out as without merit.
Not that the Q Anon nutters would be convinced, but normal folk might.
Why doesn't the USA have the Presidential election on one day/week/ month, Congress elections on another day/week/ month, state elections on another day/week/month and local elections on another day/week/month ?
Tradition.
Law as well I think. I believe election day has to be "the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November" or something arcane like that.
Because of course you can't have an election on Tuesday 1 November. That would be very silly.
In 2016 the Democrats carried Philadelphia County by 475,277. They currently lead by 377,945. So if they do as well as last time in terms of vote lead, they'll add another 97,332 votes to their vote lead in Pennsylvania.
Comments
And then it’s all over.
Everything else is gravy.
And how that varies from election to election ?
AP
CNN
Decision Desk
Fox
This is just farcical. The US is supposed to be a first world country and they can't even count the votes of the most important election they have every four years.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1324382818466779139?s=20
, @Alistair
Re politeness, I think you’ll find that the only time I tend to bite is when people have been rude to me. That includes you. You seem like one of those typical whiners who gives it out but can’t take it and cries “it’s not fair” when gets challenged.
Re PA, I explained my workings, you challenged it, I said ok I accept that and said no more. @Barnesian seemed to think they had merit
Re conspiracy theories, err no. What I said were there were questions and reported what I heard the Trump campaign said. I also said if it was the reverse you would all be crying foul.
https://twitter.com/Sapere_vivere/status/1324345063397273606?s=20
Honestly, these Yanks. Team America nailed it with that computer malfunction scene.
What happens, though, is that when there is a commaning lead, the AP/CNN/Fox "declare" for a candidate. That's the point at which they are supposed to be 99.99% certain of a result.
Now, some states allow ballots posted before (or even on) election day to count so long as they're recieved in the following couple of days (AZ, PA) or even a whole week after the election (North Carolina). Normally, the winner is clear long before these are counted, so no-one really worries about them.
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president
Why doesn't the USA have the Presidential election on one day/week/ month, Congress elections on another day/week/ month, state elections on another day/week/month and local elections on another day/week/month ?
Have Trump and TSE ever been seen in the same room .... asking for a friend in Bedford ....
They also have to prepare for four separate run off elections in the next 2 months on multiple dates, and manage a potential recount and legal challenges!
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt10048342/?ref_=nv_sr_srsg_0
I hate it when even Donald Trump has sort of a point....
Into five figures.
But the whole 'voters who live abroad' reason also applies to every western country but they don't piss around for weeks on end.
https://twitter.com/DPhinnemore/status/1324428690751660035
And after he’d finished with her, a pizza with pineapple?
All eyes on PA.
Sorry if that has been shared already. Was watching episode 2 of The Queen's Gambit.
Biden 6,745
Trump 788
Lead now 102,645
It's not racist if you are a citizen and others are demanding the police effectively don't get funding ie dont operate, its perfectly understandable that MANY have a problem with it.
I did say earlier that with the SOS being Republican that, if it looked like Trump wasn’t winning, they would be scouring the rural counties for where they could add extra votes.
I don’t know what county this is but, if I had to bet, I would say probably strongly R
(Apologies if the SOS did mention the county and I missed it)
Georgia is busy correcting ballots that are the wrong size, Nevada appears to be working to a "count one ballot per hour" rule and I can only assume that the entire state of Arizona has detached itself from the planet and is now drifting somewhere out in space given we haven't heard a peep from them in hours.
Can military ballots change the count on Florida, or is Florida count mathematically out of Biden reach?
This is their results page:
https://results.philadelphiavotes.com/ResultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY
https://twitter.com/themancunion/status/1324447530025951235
Have tried to follow the twists and turns during the day and hopefully plenty have made a quick profit (or even a slow one).
Can Biden take all of Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Georgia? Unlikely but not impossible. That would end up 322-216 which would look much more comfortable than the base numbers suggest. Currently, a 2.1% lead for Clinton has become a 2.7% for Biden so that's a 0.3% swing but in terms of ECV a considerable shift potentially.
Basically, the Democrats and Republicans have 20 "safe" states (including DC for the blues).
Of the remaining 11 "marginal" states, Trump won 10 last time (the exception being Nevada). So far, Biden has flipped Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona and to win the other three he lost last time, would leave the Democrats with seven and the Republicans with four.
As an aside, does anyone know who would be Secretary of State in a Biden administration?
Not that the Q Anon nutters would be convinced, but normal folk might.
Because of course you can't have an election on Tuesday 1 November. That would be very silly.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3099018/#Comment_3099018
Why they are wasting time counting votes when I can just call it I don't know.
It's neat if Pa. does finish today because then this won't drag on further. The remaining states will be filler.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Pennsylvania#By_county
https://results.philadelphiavotes.com/ResultsSW.aspx?type=FED&map=CTY