The WH2020 count goes on with still no sign of a resolution – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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California is only 75% counted, so you need to add another 1.5% or so to Biden's vote lead. I think he'll end up a little over 4% ahead.stodge said:Evening all
Have tried to follow the twists and turns during the day and hopefully plenty have made a quick profit (or even a slow one).
Can Biden take all of Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Georgia? Unlikely but not impossible. That would end up 322-216 which would look much more comfortable than the base numbers suggest. Currently, a 2.1% lead for Clinton has become a 2.7% for Biden so that's a 0.3% swing but in terms of ECV a considerable shift potentially.
Basically, the Democrats and Republicans have 20 "safe" states (including DC for the blues).
Of the remaining 11 "marginal" states, Trump won 10 last time (the exception being Nevada). So far, Biden has flipped Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona and to win the other three he lost last time, would leave the Democrats with seven and the Republicans with four.
As an aside, does anyone know who would be Secretary of State in a Biden administration?1 -
Another massive loss for Biden/Pelosi. Another huge win for Trump and Boris.BluestBlue said:
And so the self-indulgent actions of the 'progressives' cost the Democrats the overwhelming victory they needed to have any chance of putting their progressive policies into practice. Nice job, idiots!Andy_JS said:0 -
If true, another polling oddity. PA was consistently tighter in the polls than either WI or MI but may end up being the most comfortable of the Midwest trio for BidenMaxPB said:
About 200k.rcs1000 said:
The margin in Pennsylvania is not going to be particularly close.Mysticrose said:https://twitter.com/mattschaar/status/1324438959410286593?s=20
Sorry if that has been shared already. Was watching episode 2 of The Queen's Gambit.1 -
I would die if Fox is first network to call this for Biden.1
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Not a Dem policy or slogan though! Indeed Grandpa Joe spoke against it.not_on_fire said:
Defund the police was an incredibly stupid and misleading slogan to adoptYokes said:
Actually that's a gross oversimplification typical of the idiocy this side of the water. Abigail Spanberger the Democrat Congresswoman has been very clear that the protests move into Defund the Police talk has cost the House Dems serious problems. She should know.Alistair said:
In shock news people who voted for the racist didn't like anti-racist protests.Andy_JS said:
It's not racist if you are a citizen and others are demanding the police effectively don't get funding ie dont operate, its perfectly understandable that MANY have a problem with it.
There are extremists on the Left as nutty as QAnon.2 -
Chris Murphy, Chris Coons, Susan Rice and Anthony Blinken are the frontrunners with Mitt Romney apparently given some consideration but a longshotstodge said:Evening all
Have tried to follow the twists and turns during the day and hopefully plenty have made a quick profit (or even a slow one).
Can Biden take all of Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Georgia? Unlikely but not impossible. That would end up 322-216 which would look much more comfortable than the base numbers suggest. Currently, a 2.1% lead for Clinton has become a 2.7% for Biden so that's a 0.3% swing but in terms of ECV a considerable shift potentially.
Basically, the Democrats and Republicans have 20 "safe" states (including DC for the blues).
Of the remaining 11 "marginal" states, Trump won 10 last time (the exception being Nevada). So far, Biden has flipped Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona and to win the other three he lost last time, would leave the Democrats with seven and the Republicans with four.
As an aside, does anyone know who would be Secretary of State in a Biden administration?
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/19/joe-biden-secretary-of-state-4300890 -
NYT saying NV not counting any more votes until noon tomorrow. Are they actually having a laugh?0
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Michigan is a 3% lead for Biden now, I think.not_on_fire said:
If true, another polling oddity. PA was consistently tighter in the polls than either WI or MI but may end up being the most comfortable of the Midwest trio for BidenMaxPB said:
About 200k.rcs1000 said:
The margin in Pennsylvania is not going to be particularly close.Mysticrose said:https://twitter.com/mattschaar/status/1324438959410286593?s=20
Sorry if that has been shared already. Was watching episode 2 of The Queen's Gambit.0 -
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It's not like we're choosing the leader of the free world or anything here guys.MaxPB said:NYT saying NV not counting any more votes until noon tomorrow. Are they actually having a laugh?
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So roughly a 0.9% swing from 2016. Four years and billions of dollars spent, and America has barely moved.rcs1000 said:
California is only 75% counted, so you need to add another 1.5% or so to Biden's vote lead. I think he'll end up a little over 4% ahead.stodge said:Evening all
Have tried to follow the twists and turns during the day and hopefully plenty have made a quick profit (or even a slow one).
Can Biden take all of Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Georgia? Unlikely but not impossible. That would end up 322-216 which would look much more comfortable than the base numbers suggest. Currently, a 2.1% lead for Clinton has become a 2.7% for Biden so that's a 0.3% swing but in terms of ECV a considerable shift potentially.
Basically, the Democrats and Republicans have 20 "safe" states (including DC for the blues).
Of the remaining 11 "marginal" states, Trump won 10 last time (the exception being Nevada). So far, Biden has flipped Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona and to win the other three he lost last time, would leave the Democrats with seven and the Republicans with four.
As an aside, does anyone know who would be Secretary of State in a Biden administration?2 -
Nevada announced a short while ago that their result will take days.numbertwelve said:
It's not like we're choosing the leader of the free world or anything here guys.MaxPB said:NYT saying NV not counting any more votes until noon tomorrow. Are they actually having a laugh?
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How long does it take to say " By a margin of 6 to 3 we find for the President" 500 times?not_on_fire said:
There wouldn't be time for SCOTUS to get through all the lawsuits.another_richard said:Here's a question:
Why doesn't the USA have the Presidential election on one day/week/ month, Congress elections on another day/week/ month, state elections on another day/week/month and local elections on another day/week/month ?0 -
Senator Casey says you have overestimated.Alistair said:
THAT'S WHAT I SAID YESTERDAYMysticrose said:https://twitter.com/mattschaar/status/1324438959410286593?s=20
Sorry if that has been shared already. Was watching episode 2 of The Queen's Gambit.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3099018/#Comment_3099018
Why they are wasting time counting votes when I can just call it I don't know.
Or he is playing safe.0 -
They're correct: Arizona will end up with a c. 3-4% lead for Biden.Scott_xP said:2 -
These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
I'm sure they're fine, and Trump's noise otherwise isn't worth anything, but nonetheless digging out very heavily biased packages of votes after the polls have closed just feels ugly.
I'd like to see voting rather more heavily controlled in the UK in this light. Electoral fraud should have some insanely nasty penalty too.
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Here's a political betting joke:
What do Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton both have in common?
The market won't believe they aren't going to be the nominee the election after they lost, no matter how unlikely it begins to look.
I strongly suspect he won't even run again, but I strongly suspect Trump will be available at single-digit or low double-digit odds until at least the Iowa Caucus (and maybe long after).2 -
Calling stuff is explosive in the current atmosphere? Better count them all up.Alistair said:
THAT'S WHAT I SAID YESTERDAYMysticrose said:https://twitter.com/mattschaar/status/1324438959410286593?s=20
Sorry if that has been shared already. Was watching episode 2 of The Queen's Gambit.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3099018/#Comment_3099018
Why they are wasting time counting votes when I can just call it I don't know.0 -
Perhaps of more interest are the Senate and House elections. In the Senate, 50-50 looks conceivable which would be interesting.
The House looks set to remain in Democrat hands but with a reduced majority which would be remarkable.
That said, a half-pint is better than an empty glass and the White House, House of Reps and a locked Senate wouldn't be too bad for the Democrats.0 -
Fantastic.ydoethur said:
Revenge is Swede, and served cold.TheScreamingEagles said:
Trolling of the year, if there is such an award?0 -
Using the deeply sophisticated analysis of taking the margin from the first 600k mail votes counted, checking they came from a spread of counties and that Trump counties weren't massively lower and then multiplying the outstanding ballots by the margin.Gallowgate said:
I'm sure @Alistair calculated this about 24 hours ago! I hope the TV networks are hiring...MaxPB said:
About 200k.rcs1000 said:
The margin in Pennsylvania is not going to be particularly close.Mysticrose said:https://twitter.com/mattschaar/status/1324438959410286593?s=20
Sorry if that has been shared already. Was watching episode 2 of The Queen's Gambit.
Then getting on the the State market at 3.85 to save my betting day.1 -
another_richard said:
Here's a question:
Why doesn't the USA have the Presidential election on one day/week/ month, Congress elections on another day/week/ month, state elections on another day/week/month and local elections on another day/week/month ?
They can’t cope doing it once every four years, so how do you expect them to do it every week?
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Yeah Michigan is going to be the biggest margin. What's weird is how Minnesota and Wisconsin had such different swings, imho.rcs1000 said:
Michigan is a 3% lead for Biden now, I think.not_on_fire said:
If true, another polling oddity. PA was consistently tighter in the polls than either WI or MI but may end up being the most comfortable of the Midwest trio for BidenMaxPB said:
About 200k.rcs1000 said:
The margin in Pennsylvania is not going to be particularly close.Mysticrose said:https://twitter.com/mattschaar/status/1324438959410286593?s=20
Sorry if that has been shared already. Was watching episode 2 of The Queen's Gambit.0 -
David Milliband is obviously going to be the fav.Quincel said:Here's a political betting joke:
What do Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton both have in common?
The market won't believe they aren't going to be the nominee the election after they lost, no matter how unlikely it begins to look.
I strongly suspect he won't even run again, but I strongly suspect Trump will be available at single-digit or low double-digit odds until at least the Iowa Caucus (and maybe long after).0 -
FFS.Omnium said:These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
Mail ballot was a totally appropriate and legal way of voting particularly in this nasty pandemic.
Don't be silly.4 -
There’s such an easy joke I could make about Brexit...Omnium said:These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
I'm sure they're fine, and Trump's noise otherwise isn't worth anything, but nonetheless digging out very heavily biased packages of votes after the polls have closed just feels ugly.
I'd like to see voting rather more heavily controlled in the UK in this light. Electoral fraud should have some insanely nasty penalty too.0 -
https://twitter.com/markgettleson/status/1324450595303002112?s=20
Seems too ridiculous to be true but who knows?0 -
Fox has PA down at +102,4110
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They'd love it.rottenborough said:I would die if Fox is first network to call this for Biden.
There has been a distinct cooling between them and Trump anymore and their thirst for publicity will, er, trump any lingering loyalty they have to Trump.
What better way to curry favour with the new administration than by announcing Biden as Potus?
Endgame.1 -
Donald's quiet. Has he been on a 3 hour conference call with the lawyers?0
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It's actually a Trump rally in Pennsylvania and they're chanting "Lock TSE Up" ....TheScreamingEagles said:I flagged this story earlier.
https://twitter.com/themancunion/status/1324447530025951235
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It's dependent on how many actual ballots are outstanding. This number seems to exist in a state of quantum flux.IanB2 said:
Senator Casey says you have overestimated.Alistair said:
THAT'S WHAT I SAID YESTERDAYMysticrose said:https://twitter.com/mattschaar/status/1324438959410286593?s=20
Sorry if that has been shared already. Was watching episode 2 of The Queen's Gambit.
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3099018/#Comment_3099018
Why they are wasting time counting votes when I can just call it I don't know.
Or he is playing safe.0 -
Worth noting that in Georgia, where *all* the State officials and the legislature are Republican, you are seeing exactly the same pattern as Pennsylvania, etc.Omnium said:These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
I'm sure they're fine, and Trump's noise otherwise isn't worth anything, but nonetheless digging out very heavily biased packages of votes after the polls have closed just feels ugly.
I'd like to see voting rather more heavily controlled in the UK in this light. Electoral fraud should have some insanely nasty penalty too.
Now, they may all hate Trump and be conspiring to get rid of him. Or this may be a very simple artifact of the President encouraging his supporters *not* to vote by mail, while the Dems begged their supporters to.
It's also worth remembering that the swings are pretty consistent between states with little to no mail in voting, and those with lots of main in voting.2 -
Why don’t they do it May, inauguration in June or tied in with 4th July? Why November?IanB2 said:another_richard said:Here's a question:
Why doesn't the USA have the Presidential election on one day/week/ month, Congress elections on another day/week/ month, state elections on another day/week/month and local elections on another day/week/month ?
They can’t cope doing it once every four years, so how do you expect them to do it every week?0 -
FAKE NOODLES!TheScreamingEagles said:
Actually, we were in the same restaurant in New York back in 2004.JACK_W said:Trump has not been seen in public for over 36 hours ....
Have Trump and TSE ever been seen in the same room .... asking for a friend in Bedford ....
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Luntz’s explanation for the polling error is that a proportion of Trumpers think the polling questions are part of some conspiracy0
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It is not election fraud. If you mandate postal votes are counted last, and the President tells his supporters not to vote by mail, you can't be surprised when the mail in ballots favour his opponent so heavily.Omnium said:These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
I'm sure they're fine, and Trump's noise otherwise isn't worth anything, but nonetheless digging out very heavily biased packages of votes after the polls have closed just feels ugly.
I'd like to see voting rather more heavily controlled in the UK in this light. Electoral fraud should have some insanely nasty penalty too.4 -
That is an incredible shout. Excellent tip.Quincel said:Here's a political betting joke:
What do Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton both have in common?
The market won't believe they aren't going to be the nominee the election after they lost, no matter how unlikely it begins to look.
I strongly suspect he won't even run again, but I strongly suspect Trump will be available at single-digit or low double-digit odds until at least the Iowa Caucus (and maybe long after).0 -
I'm not being silly, and it does make me uncomfortable. If the votes thus cast looked roughly like the votes cast otherwise then fair enough, but they don't.Mysticrose said:
FFS.Omnium said:These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
Mail ballot was a totally appropriate and legal way of voting particularly in this nasty pandemic.
Don't be silly.
Thanks for calling me "silly" though - made me smile.
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What "votes from the back of the sofa"?Omnium said:These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
I'm sure they're fine, and Trump's noise otherwise isn't worth anything, but nonetheless digging out very heavily biased packages of votes after the polls have closed just feels ugly.
I'd like to see voting rather more heavily controlled in the UK in this light. Electoral fraud should have some insanely nasty penalty too.
Do you mean mail-in ballots?0 -
I suspect Arizona will be a larger margin for Biden, but we'll see.Quincel said:
Yeah Michigan is going to be the biggest margin. What's weird is how Minnesota and Wisconsin had such different swings, imho.rcs1000 said:
Michigan is a 3% lead for Biden now, I think.not_on_fire said:
If true, another polling oddity. PA was consistently tighter in the polls than either WI or MI but may end up being the most comfortable of the Midwest trio for BidenMaxPB said:
About 200k.rcs1000 said:
The margin in Pennsylvania is not going to be particularly close.Mysticrose said:https://twitter.com/mattschaar/status/1324438959410286593?s=20
Sorry if that has been shared already. Was watching episode 2 of The Queen's Gambit.0 -
Errr.. You are aware that these are mostly* ballots received before the election, but not counted until election day because the Republicans didn't like the idea.Omnium said:These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
I'm sure they're fine, and Trump's noise otherwise isn't worth anything, but nonetheless digging out very heavily biased packages of votes after the polls have closed just feels ugly.
I'd like to see voting rather more heavily controlled in the UK in this light. Electoral fraud should have some insanely nasty penalty too.
So they count the vote on the day first, then the postal votes...
*Yes, some states accept postal ballots received after election day, but franked before election day.0 -
Trump will run as a 3rd party.Alistair said:
That is an incredible shout. Excellent tip.Quincel said:Here's a political betting joke:
What do Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton both have in common?
The market won't believe they aren't going to be the nominee the election after they lost, no matter how unlikely it begins to look.
I strongly suspect he won't even run again, but I strongly suspect Trump will be available at single-digit or low double-digit odds until at least the Iowa Caucus (and maybe long after).0 -
Votes from the back of the sofa ?Omnium said:These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
I'm sure they're fine, and Trump's noise otherwise isn't worth anything, but nonetheless digging out very heavily biased packages of votes after the polls have closed just feels ugly.
I'd like to see voting rather more heavily controlled in the UK in this light. Electoral fraud should have some insanely nasty penalty too.
Very heavily biased ?
Mail in ballots in urban Philly...1 -
The polling in Wisconsin really needs some serious investigation. It was 8-10 points off. A real oddity given that MN, MI and PA were all polled pretty accurately.Quincel said:
Yeah Michigan is going to be the biggest margin. What's weird is how Minnesota and Wisconsin had such different swings, imho.rcs1000 said:
Michigan is a 3% lead for Biden now, I think.not_on_fire said:
If true, another polling oddity. PA was consistently tighter in the polls than either WI or MI but may end up being the most comfortable of the Midwest trio for BidenMaxPB said:
About 200k.rcs1000 said:
The margin in Pennsylvania is not going to be particularly close.Mysticrose said:https://twitter.com/mattschaar/status/1324438959410286593?s=20
Sorry if that has been shared already. Was watching episode 2 of The Queen's Gambit.0 -
Cali is beating New York? Well I neverrcs1000 said:
California is only 75% counted, so you need to add another 1.5% or so to Biden's vote lead. I think he'll end up a little over 4% ahead.stodge said:Evening all
Have tried to follow the twists and turns during the day and hopefully plenty have made a quick profit (or even a slow one).
Can Biden take all of Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Georgia? Unlikely but not impossible. That would end up 322-216 which would look much more comfortable than the base numbers suggest. Currently, a 2.1% lead for Clinton has become a 2.7% for Biden so that's a 0.3% swing but in terms of ECV a considerable shift potentially.
Basically, the Democrats and Republicans have 20 "safe" states (including DC for the blues).
Of the remaining 11 "marginal" states, Trump won 10 last time (the exception being Nevada). So far, Biden has flipped Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona and to win the other three he lost last time, would leave the Democrats with seven and the Republicans with four.
As an aside, does anyone know who would be Secretary of State in a Biden administration?0 -
The President told his supporters that mail in ballots were Evul and Wrong (apart from his own). This caused many of his supporters not to vote by mail in ballot.Omnium said:
I'm not being silly, and it does make me uncomfortable. If the votes thus cast looked roughly like the votes cast otherwise then fair enough, but they don't.Mysticrose said:
FFS.Omnium said:These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
Mail ballot was a totally appropriate and legal way of voting particularly in this nasty pandemic.
Don't be silly.
Thanks for calling me "silly" though - made me smile.3 -
Given it's all late arriving postals (i.e. Tuesday to next Monday) to count, you have to reckon they'll break heavily for Biden.gealbhan said:
I'd say Trump should be narrow favourite, but really narrow.0 -
Would Harris as VP would have the casting vote on a locked Senate, of have I got that wrong?stodge said:Perhaps of more interest are the Senate and House elections. In the Senate, 50-50 looks conceivable which would be interesting.
The House looks set to remain in Democrat hands but with a reduced majority which would be remarkable.
That said, a half-pint is better than an empty glass and the White House, House of Reps and a locked Senate wouldn't be too bad for the Democrats.0 -
The final result took days to emerge back in 2016.Mysticrose said:
Nevada announced a short while ago that their result will take days.numbertwelve said:
It's not like we're choosing the leader of the free world or anything here guys.MaxPB said:NYT saying NV not counting any more votes until noon tomorrow. Are they actually having a laugh?
I find it odd that some big states - Florida- Texas - Virginia - are able to count at a similar speed to what we are familiar with in the UK and elsewhere ,yet others - Pennsylvania - Georgia - take days to arrive at a clear result.0 -
Why are you comfortable with most of the Election Day vote being mostly Republican, but not the mail votes being mostly Democratic?Omnium said:
I'm not being silly, and it does make me uncomfortable. If the votes thus cast looked roughly like the votes cast otherwise then fair enough, but they don't.Mysticrose said:
FFS.Omnium said:These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
Mail ballot was a totally appropriate and legal way of voting particularly in this nasty pandemic.
Don't be silly.
Thanks for calling me "silly" though - made me smile.1 -
Aware - tick.Malmesbury said:
Errr.. You are aware that these are mostly* ballots received before the election, but not counted until election day because the Republicans didn't like the idea.Omnium said:These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
I'm sure they're fine, and Trump's noise otherwise isn't worth anything, but nonetheless digging out very heavily biased packages of votes after the polls have closed just feels ugly.
I'd like to see voting rather more heavily controlled in the UK in this light. Electoral fraud should have some insanely nasty penalty too.
So they count the vote on the day first, then the postal votes...
*Yes, some states accept postal ballots received after election day, but franked before election day.
Still feels uncomfortable.0 -
Given how childish Trump is on Twitter, and the likelihood of him going all insulting nickname on whoever he blames for losing, I’m not sure I blame her.Benpointer said:https://twitter.com/markgettleson/status/1324450595303002112?s=20
Seems too ridiculous to be true but who knows?
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Yes.Benpointer said:
Would Harris as VP would have the casting vote on a locked Senate, of have I got that wrong?stodge said:Perhaps of more interest are the Senate and House elections. In the Senate, 50-50 looks conceivable which would be interesting.
The House looks set to remain in Democrat hands but with a reduced majority which would be remarkable.
That said, a half-pint is better than an empty glass and the White House, House of Reps and a locked Senate wouldn't be too bad for the Democrats.
But that requires the Dems to pick up both Georgia special election seats.
Possible... But far from certain.0 -
But a lot more people voted. Trump found extra voters.not_on_fire said:
So roughly a 0.9% swing from 2016. Four years and billions of dollars spent, and America has barely moved.rcs1000 said:
California is only 75% counted, so you need to add another 1.5% or so to Biden's vote lead. I think he'll end up a little over 4% ahead.stodge said:Evening all
Have tried to follow the twists and turns during the day and hopefully plenty have made a quick profit (or even a slow one).
Can Biden take all of Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Georgia? Unlikely but not impossible. That would end up 322-216 which would look much more comfortable than the base numbers suggest. Currently, a 2.1% lead for Clinton has become a 2.7% for Biden so that's a 0.3% swing but in terms of ECV a considerable shift potentially.
Basically, the Democrats and Republicans have 20 "safe" states (including DC for the blues).
Of the remaining 11 "marginal" states, Trump won 10 last time (the exception being Nevada). So far, Biden has flipped Michigan, Wisconsin and Arizona and to win the other three he lost last time, would leave the Democrats with seven and the Republicans with four.
As an aside, does anyone know who would be Secretary of State in a Biden administration?0 -
Sous les pavés, la plage !JACK_W said:
It's actually a Trump rally in Pennsylvania and they're chanting "Lock TSE Up" ....TheScreamingEagles said:I flagged this story earlier.
https://twitter.com/themancunion/status/13244475300259512350 -
Trump's stance against mail voting might have cost him WI and GA and maybe even NC as well.Malmesbury said:
The President told his supporters that mail in ballots were Evul and Wrong (apart from his own). This caused many of his supporters not to vote by mail in ballot.Omnium said:
I'm not being silly, and it does make me uncomfortable. If the votes thus cast looked roughly like the votes cast otherwise then fair enough, but they don't.Mysticrose said:
FFS.Omnium said:These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
Mail ballot was a totally appropriate and legal way of voting particularly in this nasty pandemic.
Don't be silly.
Thanks for calling me "silly" though - made me smile.0 -
POTus noodles?Sunil_Prasannan said:
FAKE NOODLES!TheScreamingEagles said:
Actually, we were in the same restaurant in New York back in 2004.JACK_W said:Trump has not been seen in public for over 36 hours ....
Have Trump and TSE ever been seen in the same room .... asking for a friend in Bedford ....0 -
Pelosi is about to lose her job, as she lost seats to the Republicans. So yes it was a loss.EPG said:
Another massive loss for Biden/Pelosi. Another huge win for Trump and Boris.BluestBlue said:
And so the self-indulgent actions of the 'progressives' cost the Democrats the overwhelming victory they needed to have any chance of putting their progressive policies into practice. Nice job, idiots!Andy_JS said:
And moderate and centrist Democrats are moving against her as a consequence:
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/524503-centrist-democrats-talk-leadership-changes-after-negative-election-results?amp#click=https://t.co/x1QzSgT7Jb0 -
I'm sure Florida is still counting. But it's clear who the winner is there. PA is too close to call at the moment, so they have to wait until almost every singe vote has been counted.justin124 said:
The final result took days to emerge back in 2016.Mysticrose said:
Nevada announced a short while ago that their result will take days.numbertwelve said:
It's not like we're choosing the leader of the free world or anything here guys.MaxPB said:NYT saying NV not counting any more votes until noon tomorrow. Are they actually having a laugh?
I find it odd that some big states - Florida- Texas - Virginia - are able to count at a similar speed to what we are familiar with in the UK and elsewhere ,yet others - Pennsylvania - Georgia - take days to arrive at a clear result.0 -
I'm starting to think this could be 306.
Looks to me that Biden will carry AZ, NV, PA and GA.
NC is possible (but unlikely) gravy.
306 isn't even close.0 -
I don't know why Biden is still available at 1.08..0
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Yes, woe betide anyone who upsets the Dear Leader.Andy_Cooke said:
Given how childish Trump is on Twitter, and the likelihood of him going all insulting nickname on whoever he blames for losing, I’m not sure I blame her.Benpointer said:https://twitter.com/markgettleson/status/1324450595303002112?s=20
Seems too ridiculous to be true but who knows?0 -
She would genuinely have concerns for her safety I think.Andy_Cooke said:
Given how childish Trump is on Twitter, and the likelihood of him going all insulting nickname on whoever he blames for losing, I’m not sure I blame her.Benpointer said:https://twitter.com/markgettleson/status/1324450595303002112?s=20
Seems too ridiculous to be true but who knows?0 -
Agree the polling oddity. ButBoth candidates enjoying a (adopted) home state bounce wouldn’t be so odd in hindsightnot_on_fire said:
If true, another polling oddity. PA was consistently tighter in the polls than either WI or MI but may end up being the most comfortable of the Midwest trio for BidenMaxPB said:
About 200k.rcs1000 said:
The margin in Pennsylvania is not going to be particularly close.Mysticrose said:https://twitter.com/mattschaar/status/1324438959410286593?s=20
Sorry if that has been shared already. Was watching episode 2 of The Queen's Gambit.0 -
Yeah, probably GA in reverse I think. Close but no cigar for Biden.rcs1000 said:
Given it's all late arriving postals (i.e. Tuesday to next Monday) to count, you have to reckon they'll break heavily for Biden.gealbhan said:
I'd say Trump should be narrow favourite, but really narrow.0 -
So just had a look on the PA votes dashboard updated 10mins ago and the total mail ballots remaining to be counted and declared is 340,375
https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx0 -
The Spectator TV podcast which "leans Republican" makes the same point in reverse -- that Trump skewered his own campaign by insulting the military, trivialising the pandemic, and turning the first debate into a shitshow. You could add @MaxPB's observation that telling Republicans not to vote early or by post was self-defeating too (even if he did step back slightly late on). This is not an election either side will look back on with great pleasure.EPG said:
Another massive loss for Biden/Pelosi. Another huge win for Trump and Boris.BluestBlue said:
And so the self-indulgent actions of the 'progressives' cost the Democrats the overwhelming victory they needed to have any chance of putting their progressive policies into practice. Nice job, idiots!Andy_JS said:0 -
The Dems would love that!rottenborough said:
Trump will run as a 3rd party.Alistair said:
That is an incredible shout. Excellent tip.Quincel said:Here's a political betting joke:
What do Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton both have in common?
The market won't believe they aren't going to be the nominee the election after they lost, no matter how unlikely it begins to look.
I strongly suspect he won't even run again, but I strongly suspect Trump will be available at single-digit or low double-digit odds until at least the Iowa Caucus (and maybe long after).0 -
Why?Omnium said:
Aware - tick.Malmesbury said:
Errr.. You are aware that these are mostly* ballots received before the election, but not counted until election day because the Republicans didn't like the idea.Omnium said:These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
I'm sure they're fine, and Trump's noise otherwise isn't worth anything, but nonetheless digging out very heavily biased packages of votes after the polls have closed just feels ugly.
I'd like to see voting rather more heavily controlled in the UK in this light. Electoral fraud should have some insanely nasty penalty too.
So they count the vote on the day first, then the postal votes...
*Yes, some states accept postal ballots received after election day, but franked before election day.
Still feels uncomfortable.0 -
I have no view on how people should vote in the US. If part of the process produces a radically different outcome to the main vote then I think its sensible to question it.not_on_fire said:
Why are you comfortable with most of the Election Day vote being mostly Republican, but not the mail votes being mostly Democratic?Omnium said:
I'm not being silly, and it does make me uncomfortable. If the votes thus cast looked roughly like the votes cast otherwise then fair enough, but they don't.Mysticrose said:
FFS.Omnium said:These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
Mail ballot was a totally appropriate and legal way of voting particularly in this nasty pandemic.
Don't be silly.
Thanks for calling me "silly" though - made me smile.0 -
Hmm. I agree, but I don't like this representation of ECVs as clear/close/landslide.Anabobazina said:I'm starting to think this could be 306.
Looks to me that Biden will carry AZ, NV, PA and GA.
NC is possible (but unlikely) gravy.
306 isn't even close.
If Biden does that he will have done it with wafer thin margins in those states, except possibly PA which may be clearer, just as Trump did in 2016.
The truth is there isn't much in votes between getting 220-240 ECVs and 300-330 ECVs when you're narrowly contesting 5-6 states with wafer thin margins.1 -
Just take the pandemic. If he had listened to the scientists and led the campaign against the virus he would not only have saved thousands of American lives but would have stormed to a massive landslide victory.DecrepiterJohnL said:
The Spectator TV podcast which "leans Republican" makes the same point in reverse -- that Trump skewered his own campaign by insulting the military, trivialising the pandemic, and turning the first debate into a shitshow. You could add @MaxPB's observation that telling Republicans not to vote early or by post was self-defeating too (even if he did step back slightly late on). This is not an election either side will look back on with great pleasure.EPG said:
Another massive loss for Biden/Pelosi. Another huge win for Trump and Boris.BluestBlue said:
And so the self-indulgent actions of the 'progressives' cost the Democrats the overwhelming victory they needed to have any chance of putting their progressive policies into practice. Nice job, idiots!Andy_JS said:
Insane.0 -
Is here a public holiday in the US today? Everything seems to have stopped.0
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I think any potential swing voter might gravitate to the incumbent when they're physically at the polls. But with a mail in, did a few republicans send them in for Biden when they had the time to think of things at home ?not_on_fire said:
Trump's stance against mail voting might have cost him WI and GA and maybe even NC as well.Malmesbury said:
The President told his supporters that mail in ballots were Evul and Wrong (apart from his own). This caused many of his supporters not to vote by mail in ballot.Omnium said:
I'm not being silly, and it does make me uncomfortable. If the votes thus cast looked roughly like the votes cast otherwise then fair enough, but they don't.Mysticrose said:
FFS.Omnium said:These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
Mail ballot was a totally appropriate and legal way of voting particularly in this nasty pandemic.
Don't be silly.
Thanks for calling me "silly" though - made me smile.0 -
Pennsylvania is 1.11Casino_Royale said:I don't know why Biden is still available at 1.08..
0 -
GA had 1.3 million mail ballots - so the vast, vast majority were counted on the day.
So why are they now taking so long to do the last 50,000? They've literally counted and reported about 10,000 today I think.
0 -
produces a radically different outcomeOmnium said:
I have no view on how people should vote in the US. If part of the process produces a radically different outcome to the main vote then I think its sensible to question it.not_on_fire said:
Why are you comfortable with most of the Election Day vote being mostly Republican, but not the mail votes being mostly Democratic?Omnium said:
I'm not being silly, and it does make me uncomfortable. If the votes thus cast looked roughly like the votes cast otherwise then fair enough, but they don't.Mysticrose said:
FFS.Omnium said:These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
Mail ballot was a totally appropriate and legal way of voting particularly in this nasty pandemic.
Don't be silly.
Thanks for calling me "silly" though - made me smile.
No, both contribute to the same outcome.
1 -
That someone would suggest it is troubling enough.Anabobazina said:
Not going to happen.TheScreamingEagles said:
Cannot see the youngbloods and old firebrands being happy with that. They probably think Biden was too old school and moderate to fire up the supporters.not_on_fire said:0 -
Thank you. 🙂Anabobazina said:
Yeah, probably GA in reverse I think. Close but no cigar for Biden.rcs1000 said:
Given it's all late arriving postals (i.e. Tuesday to next Monday) to count, you have to reckon they'll break heavily for Biden.gealbhan said:
I'd say Trump should be narrow favourite, but really narrow.
And sadly Cal will always get blame for losing it, whilst on the night many other Dems lost without trouser snake issues 😕0 -
https://twitter.com/GerryHassan/status/1324441351208030211?s=20
SNP OVERALL MAJORITY: 11 SEATS;
PRO-INDY MAJORITY: 31 SEATS.
Nothing a little SLab/SCon/SLD tactical voting can't sort, I'm sure.0 -
In some states the mail in is the main vote.Omnium said:
I have no view on how people should vote in the US. If part of the process produces a radically different outcome to the main vote then I think its sensible to question it.not_on_fire said:
Why are you comfortable with most of the Election Day vote being mostly Republican, but not the mail votes being mostly Democratic?Omnium said:
I'm not being silly, and it does make me uncomfortable. If the votes thus cast looked roughly like the votes cast otherwise then fair enough, but they don't.Mysticrose said:
FFS.Omnium said:These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
Mail ballot was a totally appropriate and legal way of voting particularly in this nasty pandemic.
Don't be silly.
Thanks for calling me "silly" though - made me smile.1 -
Well hang on a minute, in 2106 we were all talking about the Dems gathering large numbers of votes in the wrong places.Casino_Royale said:
Hmm. I agree, but I don't like this representation of ECVs as clear/close/landslide.Anabobazina said:I'm starting to think this could be 306.
Looks to me that Biden will carry AZ, NV, PA and GA.
NC is possible (but unlikely) gravy.
306 isn't even close.
If Biden does that he will have done it with wafer thin margins in those states, except possibly PA which may be clearer, just as Trump did in 2016.
The truth is there isn't much in votes between getting 220-240 ECVs and 300-330 ECVs when you're narrowly contesting 5-6 states with wafer thin margins.
This is just a crappy effect of FPTP. Biden likely to finish >4% ahead in the PV (which was good enough for Brexit!)0 -
EPG said:
Another massive loss for Biden/Pelosi. Another huge win for Trump and Boris.BluestBlue said:
And so the self-indulgent actions of the 'progressives' cost the Democrats the overwhelming victory they needed to have any chance of putting their progressive policies into practice. Nice job, idiots!Andy_JS said:
Suspect some on PB aren't quite aware of what a gigantic, sweet victory this will be – for Biden and the whole world.0 -
That's what many people feel about transferable votes. The candidate who 'wins' the first round doesn't necessarily win.Omnium said:
Aware - tick.Malmesbury said:
Errr.. You are aware that these are mostly* ballots received before the election, but not counted until election day because the Republicans didn't like the idea.Omnium said:These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
I'm sure they're fine, and Trump's noise otherwise isn't worth anything, but nonetheless digging out very heavily biased packages of votes after the polls have closed just feels ugly.
I'd like to see voting rather more heavily controlled in the UK in this light. Electoral fraud should have some insanely nasty penalty too.
So they count the vote on the day first, then the postal votes...
*Yes, some states accept postal ballots received after election day, but franked before election day.
Still feels uncomfortable.
Good evening, everybody. I've very much enjoyed following this election through your posts.0 -
True but with the biggest popular vote mandate of any President in US history.Casino_Royale said:
Hmm. I agree, but I don't like this representation of ECVs as clear/close/landslide.Anabobazina said:I'm starting to think this could be 306.
Looks to me that Biden will carry AZ, NV, PA and GA.
NC is possible (but unlikely) gravy.
306 isn't even close.
If Biden does that he will have done it with wafer thin margins in those states, except possibly PA which may be clearer, just as Trump did in 2016.
The truth is there isn't much in votes between getting 220-240 ECVs and 300-330 ECVs when you're narrowly contesting 5-6 states with wafer thin margins.
Not too shabby.1 -
Yes, I find the 'there are lots of votes on a ballot' an unconvincing excuse since even if the separate presidential ballot idea is unreasonable or unncessary there are as you say there are others things one can easily do to speed things up.MaxPB said:
Hire more people or have a pencil, paper and person approach for the presidential ballot and do the other ones with the machines.Alistair said:
There are more than a dozen votes in an individual ballot.MaxPB said:
A person can go much faster and people are cheap and temporary to hire.Alistair said:
The mail ballot machines can do 750 ballots an hour I have read. So depending on the number of machines... A really long time.Benpointer said:
Seriously, how long does it take to count 11,300 votes?DougSeal said:
America has a lot to learn from us about conducting elections.
This is just farcical. The US is supposed to be a first world country and they can't even count the votes of the most important election they have every four years.0 -
Their work ethic is crap. I thought Americans loved work?Benpointer said:Is here a public holiday in the US today? Everything seems to have stopped.
0 -
At the rate they're going, every unionist in Scotland will have their own separate unity coalition to vote for.Theuniondivvie said:Nothing a little SLab/SCon/SLD tactical voting can't sort, I'm sure.
0 -
American stock market up about 7% since it became clear that Biden would win.
Surprising.2 -
That may well be the case here in many elections, and in the Brexit referendum, but as we don't have a running tab at the counts we would never know.not_on_fire said:
Why are you comfortable with most of the Election Day vote being mostly Republican, but not the mail votes being mostly Democratic?Omnium said:
I'm not being silly, and it does make me uncomfortable. If the votes thus cast looked roughly like the votes cast otherwise then fair enough, but they don't.Mysticrose said:
FFS.Omnium said:These votes from the back of the sofa seem uncomfortable to me.
Mail ballot was a totally appropriate and legal way of voting particularly in this nasty pandemic.
Don't be silly.
Thanks for calling me "silly" though - made me smile.0
