WH2020 – With the counts continuing in several key states Biden is not yet claiming victory – politi
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You can watch Fox via their website.felix said:
I am in Spain - we have a package that includes Sky and lots pf other stuff. I don't know if the numbers would match.Philip_Thompson said:
Is Fox on Sky? I couldn't find them, what channel number?felix said:
I have both and FOX is actually better than CNN in reporting the results and show less bias in their coverage.Philip_Thompson said:CNN: 11am in Fulton County for next results there. That's 4pm our time isn't it?
Its a shame CNN is the only US channel on Sky. It would be fun to mix between CNN and Fox, I'd love to see how Fox are taking this.
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'I was going to scream and shout and refuse to go but after talking with my warm and caring family,,,,I've decided to nuke PA?'RochdalePioneers said:Perhaps later today we can enjoy the first Trump press conference after Biden has been announced as the winner.
I wonder what he will say...?0 -
I suppose there is a capacity questions if we all did it, with the extra required checks etc.RobD said:
Agreed. Just avoid any uncertainty and make the whole thing postal only now. If things improve, they can have polling places where postal ballots can be dropped off in person.LostPassword said:
The sensible, pragmatic decision would be to decide now to switch them to all-postal so that there's plenty of time to plan printing, posting and public information.Mortimer said:What are people thinking about next May's elections? Will they happen?
I suspect that would be seen as too negative on the virus, so the risk is that we're faced with last-minute decisions.
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Might Trump be saved in GA by late military ballots not yet received / not in today's count?
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So what are you going to believe - what you saw at the time and spoke about at the time, or what the Trump campaign are saying?MrEd said:
Which is why I did say irony when I was typing it....Philip_Thompson said:
So you did get it from a right wing nut job then.MrEd said:
No apparently it was a straight 130K dump.Fysics_Teacher said:
Except that didn't happen: there were 140K votes which split 130K:10K.MrEd said:
Haha, don't think I said how it should be won, just that he wouldMal557 said:
So are you keeping your prediction of a Trump win? Just by legal chicanery though?MrEd said:
It's also worth taking into account who runs the courts in these states.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
In GA, I'm thinking the SoS will declare a Trump victory, knowing any D challenge in the courts is likely to fail in GA and, if it gets to the SC, has the issue of a Republican majority;
In MI, the Supreme Court is Republican and has already made decisions against Whitmer;
More difficult for the Rs in PA (D) and Wisconsin (mixture I think). But, with PA, there is the SC option they tried last time.
If this comes down to lawsuits, there is a crucial difference in what is being argued. With the Democrats, it will be about adding votes that have come in (GA, maybe NC). Presumably, the 2000 decision holds sway.
With the Republicans, they will be looking to strike votes out. Expect questions to be raised about the very high return rates of VBM in large, mainly black cities and where the SoS is Democrat.
In seriousness, I think that would be a bad outcome.
However, there would be enough grey areas for the Republicans to contest, for example the 130K dump to Biden with 0 votes for anyone else in MI.
I'm not quoting some right wing nut job website but from someone who - and I can't give away more than this - got this from within the Trump campaign (I know, irony etc etc). It was a 130K dump and there will be legal challenges around that.
That never happened. You were here when the 130k happened and commented about it at the time - and yes Trump got 10k at the time.
Look, I am only quoting what I have heard was said by the Trump campaign. What I said on the night was in reaction to the info then. The two are separate things.
Anyway, why don't you go back to predicting us a 381.5 EC Biden win
This is serious 1984 stuff. You saw Trump get 10k in that release, you spoke about it and now you are parroting that it is zero?0 -
Not ridiculous if you understand the basis of the US system for electing a President. You may not like it but it is designed to give more weight to small States.Cicero said:
Thanks... As others have said it really is ridiculous that when the popular vote is so clear that the result is still so much in doubt. It seems to me the real price should be closer to evens than the current market, but I wonder what would trigger the unwind under the current scenarios you name. If AZ and NV called for Trump before PA, I guess that would do it.numbertwelve said:
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:Cicero said:
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?numbertwelve said:
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.1 -
Public validation is not necessary for something to be right.isam said:
Only ‘right’ in the sense that it’s what the two major parties agree on. Like when Cameron and Miliband’s parties thought it best we Remain in the EU. The public didn’t unanimously agree with that eitherSouthamObserver said:
It's better to be right than wrong. Doing the right thing is also important, even if there are no votes in it.TOPPING said:
It doesn't matter at all anywhere. They might have said the right thing weeks ago and done the right thing in the HoC but all anyone will care about is that the govt won the votes and Lab supported them.SouthamObserver said:In the last week, Starmer and Dodds have both been entirely vindicated. Politically, though, it is unlikely to matter.
That is not a good look for an Opposition.
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Someone posted a screenshot showing the Trump vote staying the same, Biden up by 130K but then people on here started mentioning it was doctored.Alistair said:
You can literally see the bump in the Trump Vote line at the same time.MrEd said:
No apparently it was a straight 130K dump.Fysics_Teacher said:
Except that didn't happen: there were 140K votes which split 130K:10K.MrEd said:
Haha, don't think I said how it should be won, just that he wouldMal557 said:
So are you keeping your prediction of a Trump win? Just by legal chicanery though?MrEd said:
It's also worth taking into account who runs the courts in these states.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
In GA, I'm thinking the SoS will declare a Trump victory, knowing any D challenge in the courts is likely to fail in GA and, if it gets to the SC, has the issue of a Republican majority;
In MI, the Supreme Court is Republican and has already made decisions against Whitmer;
More difficult for the Rs in PA (D) and Wisconsin (mixture I think). But, with PA, there is the SC option they tried last time.
If this comes down to lawsuits, there is a crucial difference in what is being argued. With the Democrats, it will be about adding votes that have come in (GA, maybe NC). Presumably, the 2000 decision holds sway.
With the Republicans, they will be looking to strike votes out. Expect questions to be raised about the very high return rates of VBM in large, mainly black cities and where the SoS is Democrat.
In seriousness, I think that would be a bad outcome.
However, there would be enough grey areas for the Republicans to contest, for example the 130K dump to Biden with 0 votes for anyone else in MI.
I'm not quoting some right wing nut job website but from someone who - and I can't give away more than this - got this from within the Trump campaign (I know, irony etc etc). It was a 130K dump and there will be legal challenges around that.
It's being a long 72 hours and, TBH, I was only saying what had been suggested by his campaign and what he will use as the basis for a legal challenge in MI. May not happen if he walks away.0 -
Just leave them to it mateMrEd said:
I corrected that an hour ago @Anabobazina Do keep up if you are trying to be funnyAnabobazina said:MrEd said:
interested in why ABC saying what it isAnabobazina said:
The New York Times site gives you the live numbers. 4.9million in with 96% counted.MrEd said:
Do you have the link @paulyork64 for ABC? Agree it looks odd.Anabobazina said:
Think you are out by an order of magnitude there.paulyork64 said:
ABC.net.au saying gap is 18k but only 10k left to count. Not sure their source but biden cant win if that's true.Anabobazina said:
Suggests he knows they have lost the state.numbertwelve said:Trump files lawsuit in Georgia
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-georgia.html
WRONGMrEd said:
Depends - a few sites have called AZ for Biden so yes then but the NYT hasn't, in that case noFysics_Teacher said:
If he wins Pennsylvania that's enough isn't it?rottenborough said:Penn Dem Senator says no question they have won Penn.
PA is plenty.0 -
Time to introduce secure on-line voting.LostPassword said:
The sensible, pragmatic decision would be to decide now to switch them to all-postal so that there's plenty of time to plan printing, posting and public information.Mortimer said:What are people thinking about next May's elections? Will they happen?
I suspect that would be seen as too negative on the virus, so the risk is that we're faced with last-minute decisions.0 -
Alistair said:
You can literally see the bump in the Trump Vote line at the same time.MrEd said:
No apparently it was a straight 130K dump.Fysics_Teacher said:
Except that didn't happen: there were 140K votes which split 130K:10K.MrEd said:
Haha, don't think I said how it should be won, just that he wouldMal557 said:
So are you keeping your prediction of a Trump win? Just by legal chicanery though?MrEd said:
It's also worth taking into account who runs the courts in these states.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
In GA, I'm thinking the SoS will declare a Trump victory, knowing any D challenge in the courts is likely to fail in GA and, if it gets to the SC, has the issue of a Republican majority;
In MI, the Supreme Court is Republican and has already made decisions against Whitmer;
More difficult for the Rs in PA (D) and Wisconsin (mixture I think). But, with PA, there is the SC option they tried last time.
If this comes down to lawsuits, there is a crucial difference in what is being argued. With the Democrats, it will be about adding votes that have come in (GA, maybe NC). Presumably, the 2000 decision holds sway.
With the Republicans, they will be looking to strike votes out. Expect questions to be raised about the very high return rates of VBM in large, mainly black cities and where the SoS is Democrat.
In seriousness, I think that would be a bad outcome.
However, there would be enough grey areas for the Republicans to contest, for example the 130K dump to Biden with 0 votes for anyone else in MI.
I'm not quoting some right wing nut job website but from someone who - and I can't give away more than this - got this from within the Trump campaign (I know, irony etc etc). It was a 130K dump and there will be legal challenges around that.
Some or all of the content shared in this post is disputed and might be misleading about an election or other civic process.MrEd said:
No apparently it was a straight 130K dump.Fysics_Teacher said:
Except that didn't happen: there were 140K votes which split 130K:10K.MrEd said:
Haha, don't think I said how it should be won, just that he wouldMal557 said:
So are you keeping your prediction of a Trump win? Just by legal chicanery though?MrEd said:
It's also worth taking into account who runs the courts in these states.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
In GA, I'm thinking the SoS will declare a Trump victory, knowing any D challenge in the courts is likely to fail in GA and, if it gets to the SC, has the issue of a Republican majority;
In MI, the Supreme Court is Republican and has already made decisions against Whitmer;
More difficult for the Rs in PA (D) and Wisconsin (mixture I think). But, with PA, there is the SC option they tried last time.
If this comes down to lawsuits, there is a crucial difference in what is being argued. With the Democrats, it will be about adding votes that have come in (GA, maybe NC). Presumably, the 2000 decision holds sway.
With the Republicans, they will be looking to strike votes out. Expect questions to be raised about the very high return rates of VBM in large, mainly black cities and where the SoS is Democrat.
In seriousness, I think that would be a bad outcome.
However, there would be enough grey areas for the Republicans to contest, for example the 130K dump to Biden with 0 votes for anyone else in MI.
I'm not quoting some right wing nut job website but from someone who - and I can't give away more than this - got this from within the Trump campaign (I know, irony etc etc). It was a 130K dump and there will be legal challenges around that.0 -
Yeah, you are right. Back to work. Cheers @CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery said:
Just leave them to it mateMrEd said:
I corrected that an hour ago @Anabobazina Do keep up if you are trying to be funnyAnabobazina said:MrEd said:
interested in why ABC saying what it isAnabobazina said:
The New York Times site gives you the live numbers. 4.9million in with 96% counted.MrEd said:
Do you have the link @paulyork64 for ABC? Agree it looks odd.Anabobazina said:
Think you are out by an order of magnitude there.paulyork64 said:
ABC.net.au saying gap is 18k but only 10k left to count. Not sure their source but biden cant win if that's true.Anabobazina said:
Suggests he knows they have lost the state.numbertwelve said:Trump files lawsuit in Georgia
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-georgia.html
WRONGMrEd said:
Depends - a few sites have called AZ for Biden so yes then but the NYT hasn't, in that case noFysics_Teacher said:
If he wins Pennsylvania that's enough isn't it?rottenborough said:Penn Dem Senator says no question they have won Penn.
PA is plenty.1 -
They'd still be MPs until the next GE, and they might not be after that if they stay ToriesPhilip_Thompson said:
I doubt it.Stark_Dawning said:
I think we'll definitely see a couple before long - the pull of Nigel, and all he says and does, is just too intoxicating for many.MaxPB said:
There were two defectors to UKIP and that was over the EU which is historically a huge Tory issue. The idea of 1 defector let alone 40 over the issue if lockdown is ridiculous.isam said:
I guess any defectors who join Farage’s anti lockdown Reform party couldn’t call a by election even if they wanted to?Scott_xP said:
Up to 40 could do so and still leave Boris with a majority but make their point
For all that people claim MP's are paid poorly, the pull of an MP's salary and the egostroking that goes with it is too intoxicating for many to throw that away.0 -
And you have never heard of Photoshop?MrEd said:
Someone posted a screenshot showing the Trump vote staying the same, Biden up by 130K but then people on here started mentioning it was doctored.Alistair said:
You can literally see the bump in the Trump Vote line at the same time.MrEd said:
No apparently it was a straight 130K dump.Fysics_Teacher said:
Except that didn't happen: there were 140K votes which split 130K:10K.MrEd said:
Haha, don't think I said how it should be won, just that he wouldMal557 said:
So are you keeping your prediction of a Trump win? Just by legal chicanery though?MrEd said:
It's also worth taking into account who runs the courts in these states.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
In GA, I'm thinking the SoS will declare a Trump victory, knowing any D challenge in the courts is likely to fail in GA and, if it gets to the SC, has the issue of a Republican majority;
In MI, the Supreme Court is Republican and has already made decisions against Whitmer;
More difficult for the Rs in PA (D) and Wisconsin (mixture I think). But, with PA, there is the SC option they tried last time.
If this comes down to lawsuits, there is a crucial difference in what is being argued. With the Democrats, it will be about adding votes that have come in (GA, maybe NC). Presumably, the 2000 decision holds sway.
With the Republicans, they will be looking to strike votes out. Expect questions to be raised about the very high return rates of VBM in large, mainly black cities and where the SoS is Democrat.
In seriousness, I think that would be a bad outcome.
However, there would be enough grey areas for the Republicans to contest, for example the 130K dump to Biden with 0 votes for anyone else in MI.
I'm not quoting some right wing nut job website but from someone who - and I can't give away more than this - got this from within the Trump campaign (I know, irony etc etc). It was a 130K dump and there will be legal challenges around that.
It's being a long 72 hours and, TBH, I was only saying what had been suggested by his campaign and what he will use as the basis for a legal challenge in MI. May not happen if he walks away.
Someone posted an image so it must be true? The courts aren't going to take a photoshopped image very seriously, Trump got 10k at the time not zero and the fake image that someone posted is a lie.0 -
If he uses it for a legal challenge and the defence just point to the fact that it isn't true then it won't get very far...MrEd said:
Someone posted a screenshot showing the Trump vote staying the same, Biden up by 130K but then people on here started mentioning it was doctored.Alistair said:
You can literally see the bump in the Trump Vote line at the same time.MrEd said:
No apparently it was a straight 130K dump.Fysics_Teacher said:
Except that didn't happen: there were 140K votes which split 130K:10K.MrEd said:
Haha, don't think I said how it should be won, just that he wouldMal557 said:
So are you keeping your prediction of a Trump win? Just by legal chicanery though?MrEd said:
It's also worth taking into account who runs the courts in these states.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
In GA, I'm thinking the SoS will declare a Trump victory, knowing any D challenge in the courts is likely to fail in GA and, if it gets to the SC, has the issue of a Republican majority;
In MI, the Supreme Court is Republican and has already made decisions against Whitmer;
More difficult for the Rs in PA (D) and Wisconsin (mixture I think). But, with PA, there is the SC option they tried last time.
If this comes down to lawsuits, there is a crucial difference in what is being argued. With the Democrats, it will be about adding votes that have come in (GA, maybe NC). Presumably, the 2000 decision holds sway.
With the Republicans, they will be looking to strike votes out. Expect questions to be raised about the very high return rates of VBM in large, mainly black cities and where the SoS is Democrat.
In seriousness, I think that would be a bad outcome.
However, there would be enough grey areas for the Republicans to contest, for example the 130K dump to Biden with 0 votes for anyone else in MI.
I'm not quoting some right wing nut job website but from someone who - and I can't give away more than this - got this from within the Trump campaign (I know, irony etc etc). It was a 130K dump and there will be legal challenges around that.
It's being a long 72 hours and, TBH, I was only saying what had been suggested by his campaign and what he will use as the basis for a legal challenge in MI. May not happen if he walks away.2 -
"I call on the Electoral College voters to prevent a fraud on the American people, by voting for me, as the true winner of this election...."RochdalePioneers said:Perhaps later today we can enjoy the first Trump press conference after Biden has been announced as the winner.
I wonder what he will say...?
Wouldn't put it past him!0 -
They will only be MPs after the next GE if they stay Tories. Tories win seats, defectors don't.isam said:
They'd still be MPs until the next GE, and they might not be after that if they stay ToriesPhilip_Thompson said:
I doubt it.Stark_Dawning said:
I think we'll definitely see a couple before long - the pull of Nigel, and all he says and does, is just too intoxicating for many.MaxPB said:
There were two defectors to UKIP and that was over the EU which is historically a huge Tory issue. The idea of 1 defector let alone 40 over the issue if lockdown is ridiculous.isam said:
I guess any defectors who join Farage’s anti lockdown Reform party couldn’t call a by election even if they wanted to?Scott_xP said:
Up to 40 could do so and still leave Boris with a majority but make their point
For all that people claim MP's are paid poorly, the pull of an MP's salary and the egostroking that goes with it is too intoxicating for many to throw that away.3 -
It was also designed to give states weeks to conduct counts. Funny how that doesn't seem to get emphasis from the same people who defend the electoral college.felix said:
Not ridiculous if you understand the basis of the US system for electing a President. You may not like it but it is designed to give more weight to small States.Cicero said:
Thanks... As others have said it really is ridiculous that when the popular vote is so clear that the result is still so much in doubt. It seems to me the real price should be closer to evens than the current market, but I wonder what would trigger the unwind under the current scenarios you name. If AZ and NV called for Trump before PA, I guess that would do it.numbertwelve said:
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:Cicero said:
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?numbertwelve said:
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.2 -
Secure online voting is not attainable. Certainly not by May, and possibly not ever. The only reliable, secure methods of voting involve paper and pencil.Benpointer said:
Time to introduce secure on-line voting.LostPassword said:
The sensible, pragmatic decision would be to decide now to switch them to all-postal so that there's plenty of time to plan printing, posting and public information.Mortimer said:What are people thinking about next May's elections? Will they happen?
I suspect that would be seen as too negative on the virus, so the risk is that we're faced with last-minute decisions.3 -
I dont think there will be a successful legal challengeMrEd said:
Someone posted a screenshot showing the Trump vote staying the same, Biden up by 130K but then people on here started mentioning it was doctored.Alistair said:
You can literally see the bump in the Trump Vote line at the same time.MrEd said:
No apparently it was a straight 130K dump.Fysics_Teacher said:
Except that didn't happen: there were 140K votes which split 130K:10K.MrEd said:
Haha, don't think I said how it should be won, just that he wouldMal557 said:
So are you keeping your prediction of a Trump win? Just by legal chicanery though?MrEd said:
It's also worth taking into account who runs the courts in these states.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
In GA, I'm thinking the SoS will declare a Trump victory, knowing any D challenge in the courts is likely to fail in GA and, if it gets to the SC, has the issue of a Republican majority;
In MI, the Supreme Court is Republican and has already made decisions against Whitmer;
More difficult for the Rs in PA (D) and Wisconsin (mixture I think). But, with PA, there is the SC option they tried last time.
If this comes down to lawsuits, there is a crucial difference in what is being argued. With the Democrats, it will be about adding votes that have come in (GA, maybe NC). Presumably, the 2000 decision holds sway.
With the Republicans, they will be looking to strike votes out. Expect questions to be raised about the very high return rates of VBM in large, mainly black cities and where the SoS is Democrat.
In seriousness, I think that would be a bad outcome.
However, there would be enough grey areas for the Republicans to contest, for example the 130K dump to Biden with 0 votes for anyone else in MI.
I'm not quoting some right wing nut job website but from someone who - and I can't give away more than this - got this from within the Trump campaign (I know, irony etc etc). It was a 130K dump and there will be legal challenges around that.
It's being a long 72 hours and, TBH, I was only saying what had been suggested by his campaign and what he will use as the basis for a legal challenge in MI. May not happen if he walks away.
Mainly because its pure fiction
Even Trump says "if"0 -
Putin smiling in the background.Benpointer said:
Time to introduce secure on-line voting.LostPassword said:
The sensible, pragmatic decision would be to decide now to switch them to all-postal so that there's plenty of time to plan printing, posting and public information.Mortimer said:What are people thinking about next May's elections? Will they happen?
I suspect that would be seen as too negative on the virus, so the risk is that we're faced with last-minute decisions.3 -
0
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If you were going to do something dodgy and post a random number of made up votes to one side, don't you think you would make it less "suspicious" by adding an extra 10,000 to both sides?MrEd said:
Someone posted a screenshot showing the Trump vote staying the same, Biden up by 130K but then people on here started mentioning it was doctored.Alistair said:
You can literally see the bump in the Trump Vote line at the same time.MrEd said:
No apparently it was a straight 130K dump.Fysics_Teacher said:
Except that didn't happen: there were 140K votes which split 130K:10K.MrEd said:
Haha, don't think I said how it should be won, just that he wouldMal557 said:
So are you keeping your prediction of a Trump win? Just by legal chicanery though?MrEd said:
It's also worth taking into account who runs the courts in these states.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
In GA, I'm thinking the SoS will declare a Trump victory, knowing any D challenge in the courts is likely to fail in GA and, if it gets to the SC, has the issue of a Republican majority;
In MI, the Supreme Court is Republican and has already made decisions against Whitmer;
More difficult for the Rs in PA (D) and Wisconsin (mixture I think). But, with PA, there is the SC option they tried last time.
If this comes down to lawsuits, there is a crucial difference in what is being argued. With the Democrats, it will be about adding votes that have come in (GA, maybe NC). Presumably, the 2000 decision holds sway.
With the Republicans, they will be looking to strike votes out. Expect questions to be raised about the very high return rates of VBM in large, mainly black cities and where the SoS is Democrat.
In seriousness, I think that would be a bad outcome.
However, there would be enough grey areas for the Republicans to contest, for example the 130K dump to Biden with 0 votes for anyone else in MI.
I'm not quoting some right wing nut job website but from someone who - and I can't give away more than this - got this from within the Trump campaign (I know, irony etc etc). It was a 130K dump and there will be legal challenges around that.
It's being a long 72 hours and, TBH, I was only saying what had been suggested by his campaign and what he will use as the basis for a legal challenge in MI. May not happen if he walks away.0 -
Deleted0
-
Gap down to 146,000 votes now in PA.0
-
Secure online voting is an oxymoron.Essexit said:
Secure online voting is not attainable. Certainly not by May, and possibly not ever. The only reliable, secure methods of voting involve paper and pencil.Benpointer said:
Time to introduce secure on-line voting.LostPassword said:
The sensible, pragmatic decision would be to decide now to switch them to all-postal so that there's plenty of time to plan printing, posting and public information.Mortimer said:What are people thinking about next May's elections? Will they happen?
I suspect that would be seen as too negative on the virus, so the risk is that we're faced with last-minute decisions.
1 -
Just got a nice sized bet on at 8/15 with Bet365bigjohnowls said:BETTING POST
50K LEFT IN GEORGIA
SOS Office live on CNN
Pile on Biden? 1.49
DYOR0 -
I don't trust the security of online voting and I'm a software guy1
-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkH2r-sNjQsBenpointer said:
Time to introduce secure on-line voting.LostPassword said:
The sensible, pragmatic decision would be to decide now to switch them to all-postal so that there's plenty of time to plan printing, posting and public information.Mortimer said:What are people thinking about next May's elections? Will they happen?
I suspect that would be seen as too negative on the virus, so the risk is that we're faced with last-minute decisions.0 -
Perhaps they could try CorrectHorseBattery as the passwordPhilip_Thompson said:
Secure online voting is an oxymoron.Essexit said:
Secure online voting is not attainable. Certainly not by May, and possibly not ever. The only reliable, secure methods of voting involve paper and pencil.Benpointer said:
Time to introduce secure on-line voting.LostPassword said:
The sensible, pragmatic decision would be to decide now to switch them to all-postal so that there's plenty of time to plan printing, posting and public information.Mortimer said:What are people thinking about next May's elections? Will they happen?
I suspect that would be seen as too negative on the virus, so the risk is that we're faced with last-minute decisions.2 -
Many people understand (god knows it is repeated often enough on here!) the "basis bla bla bla" and still find it indefensibly ridiculous.felix said:
Not ridiculous if you understand the basis of the US system for electing a President. You may not like it but it is designed to give more weight to small States.Cicero said:
Thanks... As others have said it really is ridiculous that when the popular vote is so clear that the result is still so much in doubt. It seems to me the real price should be closer to evens than the current market, but I wonder what would trigger the unwind under the current scenarios you name. If AZ and NV called for Trump before PA, I guess that would do it.numbertwelve said:
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:Cicero said:
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?numbertwelve said:
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.2 -
Have you got the ratios?bigjohnowls said:PA updating now 146k down
0 -
Nor is cross party agreementSouthamObserver said:
Public validation is not necessary for something to be right.isam said:
Only ‘right’ in the sense that it’s what the two major parties agree on. Like when Cameron and Miliband’s parties thought it best we Remain in the EU. The public didn’t unanimously agree with that eitherSouthamObserver said:
It's better to be right than wrong. Doing the right thing is also important, even if there are no votes in it.TOPPING said:
It doesn't matter at all anywhere. They might have said the right thing weeks ago and done the right thing in the HoC but all anyone will care about is that the govt won the votes and Lab supported them.SouthamObserver said:In the last week, Starmer and Dodds have both been entirely vindicated. Politically, though, it is unlikely to matter.
That is not a good look for an Opposition.0 -
There's also the possibility of a few Democratic ballots (missing signatures on envelopes etc) being cured by tomorrow.MikeL said:Might Trump be saved in GA by late military ballots not yet received / not in today's count?
Probably not a large number, but not nothing:
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/11/georgia-black-vote-suppression-nse-ufot-stacey-abrams.html
Same article has accounts of the same old same old from Georgia...
...So, example: I woke up on Tuesday and found out that the place that I’d been voting for 20 years, that I wasn’t supposed to vote there on Election Day.
We still don’t have the final tally, but between Fulton and DeKalb counties, two of the largest and two of the blackest counties in the state of Georgia, right now are up to 75 polling locations that were changed within 24 hours of the polls opening on election day...0 -
Douglas Carswell didPhilip_Thompson said:
They will only be MPs after the next GE if they stay Tories. Tories win seats, defectors don't.isam said:
They'd still be MPs until the next GE, and they might not be after that if they stay ToriesPhilip_Thompson said:
I doubt it.Stark_Dawning said:
I think we'll definitely see a couple before long - the pull of Nigel, and all he says and does, is just too intoxicating for many.MaxPB said:
There were two defectors to UKIP and that was over the EU which is historically a huge Tory issue. The idea of 1 defector let alone 40 over the issue if lockdown is ridiculous.isam said:
I guess any defectors who join Farage’s anti lockdown Reform party couldn’t call a by election even if they wanted to?Scott_xP said:
Up to 40 could do so and still leave Boris with a majority but make their point
For all that people claim MP's are paid poorly, the pull of an MP's salary and the egostroking that goes with it is too intoxicating for many to throw that away.
Some new intake MP might have decided they dont like it and jump ship because it doesnt matter anyway0 -
GA
LIVE UPDATES:
9:04 a.m.
Here is the latest information from Channel 2′s Chris Jose and Tony Thomas on the counts in Cobb County and Gwinnett County:
There are 1,882 ballots left to count in Cobb County. There are around 700 absentee ballots left to county Thursday. Around 800 provisional ballots will be counted Friday.
Gwinnett County still has around 10,000 ore more votes not in the state system.0 -
Not for long, he barely held on in 2015 and he had to stand down in 2017 as he had no chance then.isam said:
Douglas Carswell didPhilip_Thompson said:
They will only be MPs after the next GE if they stay Tories. Tories win seats, defectors don't.isam said:
They'd still be MPs until the next GE, and they might not be after that if they stay ToriesPhilip_Thompson said:
I doubt it.Stark_Dawning said:
I think we'll definitely see a couple before long - the pull of Nigel, and all he says and does, is just too intoxicating for many.MaxPB said:
There were two defectors to UKIP and that was over the EU which is historically a huge Tory issue. The idea of 1 defector let alone 40 over the issue if lockdown is ridiculous.isam said:
I guess any defectors who join Farage’s anti lockdown Reform party couldn’t call a by election even if they wanted to?Scott_xP said:
Up to 40 could do so and still leave Boris with a majority but make their point
For all that people claim MP's are paid poorly, the pull of an MP's salary and the egostroking that goes with it is too intoxicating for many to throw that away.
Defectors have a very poor rate of retaining seats. Those who stick with their party have a much, much better rate.1 -
Was it you who tipped the 7/1 state combination bet with Paddy Power? Looking good.paulyork64 said:GA
LIVE UPDATES:
9:04 a.m.
Here is the latest information from Channel 2′s Chris Jose and Tony Thomas on the counts in Cobb County and Gwinnett County:
There are 1,882 ballots left to count in Cobb County. There are around 700 absentee ballots left to county Thursday. Around 800 provisional ballots will be counted Friday.
Gwinnett County still has around 10,000 ore more votes not in the state system.0 -
It is people who say that small states don't matter in the USA, but are supporters of the EU, where Luxembourg gets a veto, that I don't understand.kamski said:
Many people understand (god knows it is repeated often enough on here!) the "basis bla bla bla" and still find it indefensibly ridiculous.felix said:
Not ridiculous if you understand the basis of the US system for electing a President. You may not like it but it is designed to give more weight to small States.Cicero said:
Thanks... As others have said it really is ridiculous that when the popular vote is so clear that the result is still so much in doubt. It seems to me the real price should be closer to evens than the current market, but I wonder what would trigger the unwind under the current scenarios you name. If AZ and NV called for Trump before PA, I guess that would do it.numbertwelve said:
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:Cicero said:
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?numbertwelve said:
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.1 -
If CNN 50k is correct and they keep repeating it was an update from Sec of States office in last 30 mins its a sure fire winnerStocky said:
Just got a nice sized bet on at 8/15 with Bet365bigjohnowls said:BETTING POST
50K LEFT IN GEORGIA
SOS Office live on CNN
Pile on Biden? 1.49
DYOR0 -
Bollocks to that.Benpointer said:
Time to introduce secure on-line voting.LostPassword said:
The sensible, pragmatic decision would be to decide now to switch them to all-postal so that there's plenty of time to plan printing, posting and public information.Mortimer said:What are people thinking about next May's elections? Will they happen?
I suspect that would be seen as too negative on the virus, so the risk is that we're faced with last-minute decisions.
1 -
It strikes me that even if we know Georgia results today, we’re not going to be able to rely on them for either camp. There is too much uncertainty, the possibility of a recount or challenge, late arriving ballots, military and overseas etc etc. Georgia isn’t going to be the state either party will be able to use to declare victory (I mean, Trump will but he’ll do that anyway).
It could take another week or even longer to get a final decision there.
Which just makes PA, NV, AZ more crucial.0 -
-
Raheem had 7k on a Trump win IIRCCorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/Mikel_Jollett/status/1324342148632772615
Cognitive dissonance?0 -
Thats an interesting idea. "Its Fake News that I have lost the election. We haven't yet had the election. The founding fathers chose to put their trust in an electoral college and I am confident that when the Electoral College votes - the only votes that count - they will vote for me"MarqueeMark said:
"I call on the Electoral College voters to prevent a fraud on the American people, by voting for me, as the true winner of this election...."RochdalePioneers said:Perhaps later today we can enjoy the first Trump press conference after Biden has been announced as the winner.
I wonder what he will say...?
Wouldn't put it past him!0 -
yeah. god that's been a rollercoaster. wrote it off early hours weds, then thought it was safe, then Az which was called got uncalled. I still dont know!Stocky said:
Was it you who tipped the 7/1 state combination bet with Paddy Power? Looking good.paulyork64 said:GA
LIVE UPDATES:
9:04 a.m.
Here is the latest information from Channel 2′s Chris Jose and Tony Thomas on the counts in Cobb County and Gwinnett County:
There are 1,882 ballots left to count in Cobb County. There are around 700 absentee ballots left to county Thursday. Around 800 provisional ballots will be counted Friday.
Gwinnett County still has around 10,000 ore more votes not in the state system.1 -
I might go back into Betfair at 1.17.
If PA/GA declare for Biden in the next day then the price should drop to 1.05/1.06, even with the threat of lawsuits hanging over them, so you should be able to squeeze £100-£120 out of net profit for every stack you chuck in now - assuming you trade out by Friday and don't wait, else it's more.0 -
...
Do you have prices in mind for no defections/at least one defection?Philip_Thompson said:
Not for long, he barely held on in 2015 and he had to stand down in 2017 as he had no chance then.isam said:
Douglas Carswell didPhilip_Thompson said:
They will only be MPs after the next GE if they stay Tories. Tories win seats, defectors don't.isam said:
They'd still be MPs until the next GE, and they might not be after that if they stay ToriesPhilip_Thompson said:
I doubt it.Stark_Dawning said:
I think we'll definitely see a couple before long - the pull of Nigel, and all he says and does, is just too intoxicating for many.MaxPB said:
There were two defectors to UKIP and that was over the EU which is historically a huge Tory issue. The idea of 1 defector let alone 40 over the issue if lockdown is ridiculous.isam said:
I guess any defectors who join Farage’s anti lockdown Reform party couldn’t call a by election even if they wanted to?Scott_xP said:
Up to 40 could do so and still leave Boris with a majority but make their point
For all that people claim MP's are paid poorly, the pull of an MP's salary and the egostroking that goes with it is too intoxicating for many to throw that away.
Defectors have a very poor rate of retaining seats. Those who stick with their party have a much, much better rate.0 -
I have not defended slow counts. Either way if they wish to change the way they conduct elections or the way the electoral college works I guess they would do so. I don't even defend the EC system - simply explaining why it is as it is.Nigelb said:
It was also designed to give states weeks to conduct counts. Funny how that doesn't seem to get emphasis from the same people who defend the electoral college.felix said:
Not ridiculous if you understand the basis of the US system for electing a President. You may not like it but it is designed to give more weight to small States.Cicero said:
Thanks... As others have said it really is ridiculous that when the popular vote is so clear that the result is still so much in doubt. It seems to me the real price should be closer to evens than the current market, but I wonder what would trigger the unwind under the current scenarios you name. If AZ and NV called for Trump before PA, I guess that would do it.numbertwelve said:
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:Cicero said:
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?numbertwelve said:
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.0 -
PA
GOP 3221K
Dem 3078k
Diff 143k
0 -
He's calling Joe Biden a what?!CarlottaVance said:4 -
Despite his loss in 1992, the 53.4% of the national popular vote and 426 EC votes George HW Bush got in 1988 has still not been bettered by any Republican presidential candidate since, including even his son in 2004 and Trump in 2016.CarlottaVance said:Long ago and far away.....
https://twitter.com/Freedland/status/1324280879561232385?s=20
Overall he was the last GOP President who can generally be said to have left a good legacy, sound finances, a climate change deal signed at the Rio Summit, action to help the disabled and of course he won the Gulf War with a huge multinational coalition and a UN mandate3 -
What's the mean ratio of the votes coming in?bigjohnowls said:
If CNN 50k is correct and they keep repeating it was an update from Sec of States office in last 30 mins its a sure fire winnerStocky said:
Just got a nice sized bet on at 8/15 with Bet365bigjohnowls said:BETTING POST
50K LEFT IN GEORGIA
SOS Office live on CNN
Pile on Biden? 1.49
DYOR
70/30 makes it tight but Biden.
80/20 makes it fairly comfortable for Biden (small five figure gap).0 -
That fact, while true, does somewhat dent the FPTP defenders when they use the stance that "FPTP means we vote for the person, not the party."Philip_Thompson said:
Not for long, he barely held on in 2015 and he had to stand down in 2017 as he had no chance then.isam said:
Douglas Carswell didPhilip_Thompson said:
They will only be MPs after the next GE if they stay Tories. Tories win seats, defectors don't.isam said:
They'd still be MPs until the next GE, and they might not be after that if they stay ToriesPhilip_Thompson said:
I doubt it.Stark_Dawning said:
I think we'll definitely see a couple before long - the pull of Nigel, and all he says and does, is just too intoxicating for many.MaxPB said:
There were two defectors to UKIP and that was over the EU which is historically a huge Tory issue. The idea of 1 defector let alone 40 over the issue if lockdown is ridiculous.isam said:
I guess any defectors who join Farage’s anti lockdown Reform party couldn’t call a by election even if they wanted to?Scott_xP said:
Up to 40 could do so and still leave Boris with a majority but make their point
For all that people claim MP's are paid poorly, the pull of an MP's salary and the egostroking that goes with it is too intoxicating for many to throw that away.
Defectors have a very poor rate of retaining seats. Those who stick with their party have a much, much better rate.1 -
I'm not betting on it but if forced to choose at evens for both then I would choose no defections.isam said:...
Do you have prices in mind for no defections/at least one defection?Philip_Thompson said:
Not for long, he barely held on in 2015 and he had to stand down in 2017 as he had no chance then.isam said:
Douglas Carswell didPhilip_Thompson said:
They will only be MPs after the next GE if they stay Tories. Tories win seats, defectors don't.isam said:
They'd still be MPs until the next GE, and they might not be after that if they stay ToriesPhilip_Thompson said:
I doubt it.Stark_Dawning said:
I think we'll definitely see a couple before long - the pull of Nigel, and all he says and does, is just too intoxicating for many.MaxPB said:
There were two defectors to UKIP and that was over the EU which is historically a huge Tory issue. The idea of 1 defector let alone 40 over the issue if lockdown is ridiculous.isam said:
I guess any defectors who join Farage’s anti lockdown Reform party couldn’t call a by election even if they wanted to?Scott_xP said:
Up to 40 could do so and still leave Boris with a majority but make their point
For all that people claim MP's are paid poorly, the pull of an MP's salary and the egostroking that goes with it is too intoxicating for many to throw that away.
Defectors have a very poor rate of retaining seats. Those who stick with their party have a much, much better rate.0 -
I voted remain, but am not a supporter of the EU, I just think on balance it is better to be in than out. I would prefer Luxembourg had less relative power. It seems you are confusing wanting to be in the EU, with agreeing exactly how it is structured and operates which would be an extremely niche position held by very few.No_Offence_Alan said:
It is people who say that small states don't matter in the USA, but are supporters of the EU, where Luxembourg gets a veto, that I don't understand.kamski said:
Many people understand (god knows it is repeated often enough on here!) the "basis bla bla bla" and still find it indefensibly ridiculous.felix said:
Not ridiculous if you understand the basis of the US system for electing a President. You may not like it but it is designed to give more weight to small States.Cicero said:
Thanks... As others have said it really is ridiculous that when the popular vote is so clear that the result is still so much in doubt. It seems to me the real price should be closer to evens than the current market, but I wonder what would trigger the unwind under the current scenarios you name. If AZ and NV called for Trump before PA, I guess that would do it.numbertwelve said:
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:Cicero said:
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?numbertwelve said:
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.1 -
Haha fuck me! Me too hahaPhilip_Thompson said:
I'm not betting on it but if forced to choose at evens for both then I would choose no defections.isam said:...
Do you have prices in mind for no defections/at least one defection?Philip_Thompson said:
Not for long, he barely held on in 2015 and he had to stand down in 2017 as he had no chance then.isam said:
Douglas Carswell didPhilip_Thompson said:
They will only be MPs after the next GE if they stay Tories. Tories win seats, defectors don't.isam said:
They'd still be MPs until the next GE, and they might not be after that if they stay ToriesPhilip_Thompson said:
I doubt it.Stark_Dawning said:
I think we'll definitely see a couple before long - the pull of Nigel, and all he says and does, is just too intoxicating for many.MaxPB said:
There were two defectors to UKIP and that was over the EU which is historically a huge Tory issue. The idea of 1 defector let alone 40 over the issue if lockdown is ridiculous.isam said:
I guess any defectors who join Farage’s anti lockdown Reform party couldn’t call a by election even if they wanted to?Scott_xP said:
Up to 40 could do so and still leave Boris with a majority but make their point
For all that people claim MP's are paid poorly, the pull of an MP's salary and the egostroking that goes with it is too intoxicating for many to throw that away.
Defectors have a very poor rate of retaining seats. Those who stick with their party have a much, much better rate.0 -
Especially Georgia and PA definitely carry on in AZ and NV thoughCarlottaVance said:0 -
Down on what?Anabobazina said:
Have you got the ratios?bigjohnowls said:PA updating now 146k down
0 -
Apparently the reason we have earls rather than counts in the UK nobility is because of the similarity of the sound of the word count to something else...isam said:
He's calling Joe Biden a what?!CarlottaVance said:
Probably just an urban legend, but don't shatter my illusions if it is.0 -
1
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For consistency, we should also have visearls or visjarls rather than viscounts.Fysics_Teacher said:
Apparently the reason we have earls rather than counts in the UK nobility is because of the similarity of the sound of the word count to something else...isam said:
He's calling Joe Biden a what?!CarlottaVance said:
Probably just an urban legend, but don't shatter my illusions if it is.0 -
No electoral system is perfect and most have aspects which are 'indefensibly ridiculous' - eg Equal electoral districts beloved of the Chartists would probably give Orkney Shetland and much of northern Scotland 1MP in total. As already said the way to change the American system is there - the will may not be.kamski said:
Many people understand (god knows it is repeated often enough on here!) the "basis bla bla bla" and still find it indefensibly ridiculous.felix said:
Not ridiculous if you understand the basis of the US system for electing a President. You may not like it but it is designed to give more weight to small States.Cicero said:
Thanks... As others have said it really is ridiculous that when the popular vote is so clear that the result is still so much in doubt. It seems to me the real price should be closer to evens than the current market, but I wonder what would trigger the unwind under the current scenarios you name. If AZ and NV called for Trump before PA, I guess that would do it.numbertwelve said:
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:Cicero said:
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?numbertwelve said:
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.0 -
GA ballots coming in.Mal557 said:
Down on what?Anabobazina said:
Have you got the ratios?bigjohnowls said:PA updating now 146k down
0 -
These counts remind me of IT projects which are reported "95% complete" week after week.0
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And the wife of an earl is a countess.Andy_Cooke said:
For consistency, we should also have visearls or visjarls rather than viscounts.Fysics_Teacher said:
Apparently the reason we have earls rather than counts in the UK nobility is because of the similarity of the sound of the word count to something else...isam said:
He's calling Joe Biden a what?!CarlottaVance said:
Probably just an urban legend, but don't shatter my illusions if it is.1 -
I did a pub quiz once and called my team "The Count and his Cristos" - the quizmaster managed to squeeze a fair bit of material from it!Fysics_Teacher said:
Apparently the reason we have earls rather than counts in the UK nobility is because of the similarity of the sound of the word count to something else...isam said:
He's calling Joe Biden a what?!CarlottaVance said:
Probably just an urban legend, but don't shatter my illusions if it is.0 -
I think the voters just didisam said:
He's calling Joe Biden a what?!CarlottaVance said:
Stop the C that is0 -
Especially as it was the inferior orders who spoke, er, Anglo-Saxon, and would have welcomed that way to address their French overlords.Fysics_Teacher said:
Apparently the reason we have earls rather than counts in the UK nobility is because of the similarity of the sound of the word count to something else...isam said:
He's calling Joe Biden a what?!CarlottaVance said:
Probably just an urban legend, but don't shatter my illusions if it is.
The things one learns on PB.0 -
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I've had upgrades like that, yes.No_Offence_Alan said:These counts remind me of IT projects which are reported "95% complete" week after week.
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So they think they have lost NV too?Scott_xP said:0 -
Does anyone have a link for the PA current voting numbers? I know a couple of sites have been mentioned earlier giving different figures of remaining votes. Is there an official one that is or should be correct?0
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Desperate Don.CarlottaVance said:0 -
A voice of a moderate British Remainer, a voice from which we hear far too little.noneoftheabove said:
I voted remain, but am not a supporter of the EU, I just think on balance it is better to be in than out. I would prefer Luxembourg had less relative power. It seems you are confusing wanting to be in the EU, with agreeing exactly how it is structured and operates which would be an extremely niche position held by very few.No_Offence_Alan said:
It is people who say that small states don't matter in the USA, but are supporters of the EU, where Luxembourg gets a veto, that I don't understand.kamski said:
Many people understand (god knows it is repeated often enough on here!) the "basis bla bla bla" and still find it indefensibly ridiculous.felix said:
Not ridiculous if you understand the basis of the US system for electing a President. You may not like it but it is designed to give more weight to small States.Cicero said:
Thanks... As others have said it really is ridiculous that when the popular vote is so clear that the result is still so much in doubt. It seems to me the real price should be closer to evens than the current market, but I wonder what would trigger the unwind under the current scenarios you name. If AZ and NV called for Trump before PA, I guess that would do it.numbertwelve said:
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:Cicero said:
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?numbertwelve said:
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
Thank you, and that's a perfectly reasonable position to have.1 -
Quite - there are imperfections in all systems - the EU solves the problem by having its President not chosen directly by the people at all!No_Offence_Alan said:
It is people who say that small states don't matter in the USA, but are supporters of the EU, where Luxembourg gets a veto, that I don't understand.kamski said:
Many people understand (god knows it is repeated often enough on here!) the "basis bla bla bla" and still find it indefensibly ridiculous.felix said:
Not ridiculous if you understand the basis of the US system for electing a President. You may not like it but it is designed to give more weight to small States.Cicero said:
Thanks... As others have said it really is ridiculous that when the popular vote is so clear that the result is still so much in doubt. It seems to me the real price should be closer to evens than the current market, but I wonder what would trigger the unwind under the current scenarios you name. If AZ and NV called for Trump before PA, I guess that would do it.numbertwelve said:
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:Cicero said:
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?numbertwelve said:
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump. 0 -
PA down to 142k0
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GA? Bigjohn quoted PA? so 146K votes being declared or just counted in this batch?Anabobazina said:
GA ballots coming in.Mal557 said:
Down on what?Anabobazina said:
Have you got the ratios?bigjohnowls said:PA updating now 146k down
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Seriously, why not wait for more information? Surely doing that couldn't look much worse than it looks already.Anabobazina said:
So they think they have lost NV too?Scott_xP said:0 -
"under a minute remaining"Fysics_Teacher said:
I've had upgrades like that, yes.No_Offence_Alan said:These counts remind me of IT projects which are reported "95% complete" week after week.
0 -
I once encountered one called "The big fact hunt".isam said:
I did a pub quiz once and called my team "The Count and his Cristos" - the quizmaster managed to squeeze a fair bit of material from it!Fysics_Teacher said:
Apparently the reason we have earls rather than counts in the UK nobility is because of the similarity of the sound of the word count to something else...isam said:
He's calling Joe Biden a what?!CarlottaVance said:
Probably just an urban legend, but don't shatter my illusions if it is.1 -
Bf on the move
Biden1.14
Trump7.60 -
Step up William Glenn of this parish! :noneoftheabove said:
I voted remain, but am not a supporter of the EU, I just think on balance it is better to be in than out. I would prefer Luxembourg had less relative power. It seems you are confusing wanting to be in the EU, with agreeing exactly how it is structured and operates which would be an extremely niche position held by very few.No_Offence_Alan said:
It is people who say that small states don't matter in the USA, but are supporters of the EU, where Luxembourg gets a veto, that I don't understand.kamski said:
Many people understand (god knows it is repeated often enough on here!) the "basis bla bla bla" and still find it indefensibly ridiculous.felix said:
Not ridiculous if you understand the basis of the US system for electing a President. You may not like it but it is designed to give more weight to small States.Cicero said:
Thanks... As others have said it really is ridiculous that when the popular vote is so clear that the result is still so much in doubt. It seems to me the real price should be closer to evens than the current market, but I wonder what would trigger the unwind under the current scenarios you name. If AZ and NV called for Trump before PA, I guess that would do it.numbertwelve said:
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:Cicero said:
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?numbertwelve said:
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.0 -
If GA ends up going to Trump it’s going to be horribly anticlimactic0
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The third season of Veep (maybe it was the fourth) revolves around the Julia Louis-Dreyfus dealing with a tied Electoral College in the first election after she becomes President - the incumbent having resigned. At one point her lawyer is before a court in Nevada trying to keep a count going when news comes in that somemissing ballots are heavily against her. So the lawyer, halfway through submissions, switches from wanting the count continued to wanting it stopped.
It's actually kind of happening.1 -
If Gwinnet county has 10k more votes "not in the state system" maybe this explains the SoS updating his outstanding ballots total from 25k to "around 50k".
Gwinnet is currently 58% Biden 40% Trump but these could be bluer if mail ins.0 -
Daughter played in skittle team ‘cunning stunts’No_Offence_Alan said:
I once encountered one called "The big fact hunt".isam said:
I did a pub quiz once and called my team "The Count and his Cristos" - the quizmaster managed to squeeze a fair bit of material from it!Fysics_Teacher said:
Apparently the reason we have earls rather than counts in the UK nobility is because of the similarity of the sound of the word count to something else...isam said:
He's calling Joe Biden a what?!CarlottaVance said:
Probably just an urban legend, but don't shatter my illusions if it is.1 -
It's clear he's disputing every state he's lost or losing in that costs him 4 more years. Its not a suprise. He said weeks ago if he lost it had been stolen or was fraud, this is simply doing what Trump does best. What I find sad is that so many americans, not just his voters but those in power seem quite happy to let him ps on a democratic process like this and act like some kind of dictatorChris said:
Seriously, why not wait for more information? Surely doing that couldn't look much worse than it looks already.Anabobazina said:
So they think they have lost NV too?Scott_xP said:0 -
And not even chosen by the parties who won the preceding election.felix said:
Quite - there are imperfections in all systems - the EU solves the problem by having its President not chosen directly by the people at all!No_Offence_Alan said:
It is people who say that small states don't matter in the USA, but are supporters of the EU, where Luxembourg gets a veto, that I don't understand.kamski said:
Many people understand (god knows it is repeated often enough on here!) the "basis bla bla bla" and still find it indefensibly ridiculous.felix said:
Not ridiculous if you understand the basis of the US system for electing a President. You may not like it but it is designed to give more weight to small States.Cicero said:
Thanks... As others have said it really is ridiculous that when the popular vote is so clear that the result is still so much in doubt. It seems to me the real price should be closer to evens than the current market, but I wonder what would trigger the unwind under the current scenarios you name. If AZ and NV called for Trump before PA, I guess that would do it.numbertwelve said:
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:Cicero said:
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?numbertwelve said:
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.Cicero said:
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?numbertwelve said:
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.Cicero said:If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
1 -
Why is it taking so long to count these ballots?
It seems every time Trump looks like he might have a chance there is a massive delay for no reason then a big dump of Biden votes.0 -
If they launch enough lawsuits somewhere somehow some Biden votes will get thrown out, I guess is the idea. The Dems should probably be launching lawsuits in any places where there's a chance, however tiny, to reduce the Trump vote to make it a fair fight.Chris said:
Seriously, why not wait for more information? Surely doing that couldn't look much worse than it looks already.Anabobazina said:
So they think they have lost NV too?Scott_xP said:0 -
Blue shift is rolling. Fingers crossed this looks like Michigan by the evening. Some outstanding OTD vote to count in Philly too according to Nate Cohn. Also 30000 ballots to be reconciled in Pittsburgh, and whatever is in Philly. Not looking good for Trump although my anxiety disorder doesn’t let me relax one bit.Philip_Thompson said:PA down to 142k
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The reason there is a delay is because the GOP legislators in these states refused to permit the early counting of these votes.DAlexander said:Why is it taking so long to count these ballots?
It seems every time Trump looks like he might have a chance there is a massive delay for no reason then a big dump of Biden votes.1 -
If that's all that's left i suspect the 488K figure was right and the 700K one wrong , which means it will be much closer in PA than those 100-200K projections IPhilip_Thompson said:PA down to 142k
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As it stands Trump has 213 EV. If they STOP THE COUNT he would be awardedCarlottaVance said:
Alaska: 3 EV
Georgia: 16 EV
Maine 2: 1 EV
North Carolina: 15 EV
Pennsylvania: 20 EV
Giving him 268.
Biden is on 253. So he would be awarded:
Arizona: 11 EV
Nevada: 6 EV
Giving him 270 EV
So if the states do as Donald Trump requests, Donald Trump loses the election.
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I think that number is the gap, not the number of remaining ballots.Mal557 said:
If that's all that's left i suspect the 488K figure was right and the 700K one wrong , which means it will be much closer in PA than those 100-200K projections IPhilip_Thompson said:PA down to 142k
1
This discussion has been closed.