It looks like there may be a flurry of new updates from the counting states coming in 4-5pm Uk time. I doubt we are going to hear much significant before then.
In the last week, Starmer and Dodds have both been entirely vindicated. Politically, though, it is unlikely to matter.
It doesn't matter at all anywhere. They might have said the right thing weeks ago and done the right thing in the HoC but all anyone will care about is that the govt won the votes and Lab supported them.
That is not a good look for an Opposition.
It's better to be right than wrong. Doing the right thing is also important, even if there are no votes in it.
By live site are you getting that from electionreturns.pa.gov or from a news live site? Those stating its at 488k say there has been a delay auto updating the other live reporting sites hence they are showing old data.
If that 488k is in Philly and the burbs it's not a worry.
About 300K in Philly and the burbs and 400K elsewhere using the NYT stats.
The 400k elsewhere break Dem even in the reddest counties.
If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
It's also worth taking into account who runs the courts in these states.
In GA, I'm thinking the SoS will declare a Trump victory, knowing any D challenge in the courts is likely to fail in GA and, if it gets to the SC, has the issue of a Republican majority;
In MI, the Supreme Court is Republican and has already made decisions against Whitmer;
More difficult for the Rs in PA (D) and Wisconsin (mixture I think). But, with PA, there is the SC option they tried last time.
If this comes down to lawsuits, there is a crucial difference in what is being argued. With the Democrats, it will be about adding votes that have come in (GA, maybe NC). Presumably, the 2000 decision holds sway.
With the Republicans, they will be looking to strike votes out. Expect questions to be raised about the very high return rates of VBM in large, mainly black cities and where the SoS is Democrat.
It looks like there may be a flurry of new updates from the counting states coming in 4-5pm Uk time. I doubt we are going to hear much significant before then.
The only problem with watching CNN. Having to watch the same irritating Quest Means Business advert. Who is that utter tool?
There aren’t any adverts on their live feed, it just goes quiet if you are watching from abroad. Which is much better than having to listen to all the crap being touted on Fox.
I'm on their web feed. When America goes to an ad break we get trailers for International shows. The same trailers. Over and over and over again.
I don’t. Mine just goes to silent black screen with a message on it saying ad break, back shortly
If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact is actually still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?
In the last week, Starmer and Dodds have both been entirely vindicated. Politically, though, it is unlikely to matter.
It doesn't matter at all anywhere. They might have said the right thing weeks ago and done the right thing in the HoC but all anyone will care about is that the govt won the votes and Lab supported them.
That is not a good look for an Opposition.
It's better to be right than wrong. Doing the right thing is also important, even if there are no votes in it.
Doing the right thing is very important but I think it legitimate to adopt the position that anything you do is better than anything the govt does. Even if it's exactly the same policy (which it's not) then you need to find a differentiation.
Otherwise you can sit in your room all year being right. But out of power.
It looks like there may be a flurry of new updates from the counting states coming in 4-5pm Uk time. I doubt we are going to hear much significant before then.
So I have 200 refreshes to go before anything happens......great
It looks like there may be a flurry of new updates from the counting states coming in 4-5pm Uk time. I doubt we are going to hear much significant before then.
Would be fun if Trump hundreds ahead and Military swings it.
I had assumed the military vote is by default heavy Republican. Is that not right?
No. The US military is top heavy with commissioned and warrant officers due to their focus on technology. Those officers are usually highly educated. The 2ic on my US exchange squadron had a Masters in International Relations from GWU. The 2ic on RN squadron I had just come from had A level Geography grade D.
Would be fun if Trump hundreds ahead and Military swings it.
I had assumed the military vote is by default heavy Republican. Is that not right?
No. The US military is top heavy with commissioned and warrant officers due to their focus on technology. Those officers are usually highly educated. The 2ic on my US exchange squadron had a Masters in International Relations from GWU. The 2ic on RN squadron I had just come from had A level Geography grade D.
To be honest I was thinking as much about the cash bung they had, and the fact they don’t need to worry about healthcare.
If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?
It is all going to hang on PA. As some of us were saying would likely be the case if it turned out close.
Would be fun if Trump hundreds ahead and Military swings it.
I had assumed the military vote is by default heavy Republican. Is that not right?
No. The US military is top heavy with commissioned and warrant officers due to their focus on technology. Those officers are usually highly educated. The 2ic on my US exchange squadron had a Masters in International Relations from GWU. The 2ic on RN squadron I had just come from had A level Geography grade D.
They voted 50-45 for Trump last time, and I doubt his comments on the military have endeared many
When we vote to leave, we hold all the cards and we can choose the future we want
Absolutely true. That is what we are doing.
Oh Philip you truely still believe that
At least there is only 51 days till Santa comes
Yes I truly believe that.
It is up to us to determine our own future. Success or failure lies in our own hands, in the governments we elect, in the decisions we make. Not relying upon others doing it for us.
As a parent, Santa is the same when you think about it.
Would be fun if Trump hundreds ahead and Military swings it.
I had assumed the military vote is by default heavy Republican. Is that not right?
No. The US military is top heavy with commissioned and warrant officers due to their focus on technology. Those officers are usually highly educated. The 2ic on my US exchange squadron had a Masters in International Relations from GWU. The 2ic on RN squadron I had just come from had A level Geography grade D.
Not an expert but would imagine global travel would help as well, fear of Biden as a communist is unlikely to play well with someone who understands he would be a conservative in Western Europe where the capitalist world is amazingly still around.
If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger spoke exclusively with Channel 2 Action News This Morning. There are now under 25,000 ballots left to be counted and Raffensperger says the state should be done by noon today.
6:20 a.m.
The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Thanaks Paul, looks like Trump has held on in GA
Too early to say that IMHO. Only thing we can say is as predicted it is going to be incredibly tight.
If it is under 25K votes and 18.5K lead, I don't see how that is overcome.
Plus the SoS is R so I think he is rushing this through
As far as I’m aware, we are not sure yet if the 25k figure is uncounted and unreported (ie all the rest of the ballots have been reported) or whether there are still some other ballots to report.
From the news report:
"The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden."
That was in the same interview as the <25K votes comments</p>
Something is not being reported correctly, because 4% of GA's vote is substantially more than 25k
The 25K and the 18.5K are both from the SoS office so they will be the official numbers presumably.
The SoS gave an interview to a TV station with the 25K number and said they would be done by noon.
Given he is Republican, I think if Trump was behind, they would be scrambling around for any loose votes they could find so, given that and the vote split, that's why I think it will be called for Trump.
His interview on CNN said 40k I thought and then absentee and Military ballots
He did say they would be done by noon on the Mail ins but that Absentees would follow and Military next Tuesday
Scroll down to the comments at 6;20am / 6:31am their time
Thats important info giving the betting
Thanks
Do you think the 25k includes absentee but not Military?
Have to admit I don't know. As mentioned, I don't think he would do a TV interview if the Rs didn't think they can say they have held GA - he would be trying to find extra votes in the outlying counties.
(You're right, it is important betting info but I can't get onto Betfair )
By definition, the £25k must exclude votes that haven't yet been verified and tabulated, no? Let alone those not yet received.
The impression I get is he is looking to call it, hence why I think it will be declared as a Trump win
Or just completely and utterly fed up.
When I saw him on CNN I didnt get the feeling he wanted to call it just that he wanted a break before counting Military
Presume Trump lawsuit wants to exclude Miltary as they are LOOOSSSSEEEERRRRS
Lockdown II, Lockdown far lighter in my Dorset town. Far more businesses open and far more people around. Suspect observance will be a lot lighter this time. Frankly, business must continue where it can.
Furlough through to March - public finances take another hit. Just not sure how long this can continue.
What are people thinking about next May's elections? Will they happen?
If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
I think you are spot on, apart from the last sentence. The huge path that "could" open up suddenly is the US supreme court. They will have the final say on the election. The arguments will be pathetic, but do the judges care or will the court be loyal to the President who packed it?
Yeah, so looking at the Pennsylvania Website (via the medium of other people's tweets due to the geo block) It does indeed look like there is only 488k Absent ballots left but the state totals are Trump: 3206764 Biden: 3030266
Biden needs to win the remaining mail ballot 68/32 to win. As to don't know ehere those ballots are (due to the reporting lag) I have no idea how plausible that is.
On average it is more than believable, the current mail ballot average is 76/22, but no idea where those ballots are due to how shit American elections are.
This looks correct to me, NYtimes site is fallible and has been a few times over the last few days with updates and remaining numbers, info from on the ground states is much more reliable I'm finding. So it does look very close, if postals and in those Dem areas Biden certainly could sneak home, but a recount is inevitable either way aside from Trump most likely looking at more legal cases here too
If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
I think you are spot on, apart from the last sentence. The huge path that "could" open up suddenly is the US supreme court. They will have the final say on the election. The arguments will be pathetic, but do the judges care or will the court be loyal to the President who packed it?
The SC will stick to the law and the constitution imo and not pander to Trump.
Furlough scheme extended to the end of March next year. Certainly until January this is at the 80% level , to be reviewed then. The financial commitment made in this statement alone probably exceeds the commitments made in any budget in modern times.
At its peak furlough was about £14bn a month, guess it will be sub £10bn so maybe £40-50bn over six months. HS2 was a bigger commitment alone.
Re: lockdown. As a teacher I was not expecting a huge effect, but then last night I got an e-mail saying that as an "extremely vulnerable person" I needed to work from home: it would have been very helpful to have had that message a bit earlier so that I could have prepared more for it.
Yeah, so looking at the Pennsylvania Website (via the medium of other people's tweets due to the geo block) It does indeed look like there is only 488k Absent ballots left but the state totals are Trump: 3206764 Biden: 3030266
Biden needs to win the remaining mail ballot 68/32 to win. As to don't know ehere those ballots are (due to the reporting lag) I have no idea how plausible that is.
On average it is more than believable, the current mail ballot average is 76/22, but no idea where those ballots are due to how shit American elections are.
The 'average' result is Biden by 75k
There should be a PA results batch drop in next 20 mins or so from Philly, dunno if its a big drop and containing those potential missing ballots or its just the start of the day and reporting is bit by bit
Furlough scheme extended to the end of March next year. Certainly until January this is at the 80% level , to be reviewed then. The financial commitment made in this statement alone probably exceeds the commitments made in any budget in modern times.
At its peak furlough was about £14bn a month, guess it will be sub £10bn so maybe £40-50bn over six months. HS2 was a bigger commitment alone.
HS2 is over (seemingly) hundreds of years....
Its a bigger commitment, not much point in building 12 miles of it but not the rest.
If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
It's also worth taking into account who runs the courts in these states.
In GA, I'm thinking the SoS will declare a Trump victory, knowing any D challenge in the courts is likely to fail in GA and, if it gets to the SC, has the issue of a Republican majority;
In MI, the Supreme Court is Republican and has already made decisions against Whitmer;
More difficult for the Rs in PA (D) and Wisconsin (mixture I think). But, with PA, there is the SC option they tried last time.
If this comes down to lawsuits, there is a crucial difference in what is being argued. With the Democrats, it will be about adding votes that have come in (GA, maybe NC). Presumably, the 2000 decision holds sway.
With the Republicans, they will be looking to strike votes out. Expect questions to be raised about the very high return rates of VBM in large, mainly black cities and where the SoS is Democrat.
So are you keeping your prediction of a Trump win? Just by legal chicanery though?
If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
I think you are spot on, apart from the last sentence. The huge path that "could" open up suddenly is the US supreme court. They will have the final say on the election. The arguments will be pathetic, but do the judges care or will the court be loyal to the President who packed it?
The SC will stick to the law and the constitution imo and not pander to Trump.
If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
NV is difficult because apparently the Republicans had a big drop-off element in Clark, which is why they have been confident.
AZ I think will go Trump. Worth looking at the counties to report on the NYT by order of votes counted. A fair few Republican strongholds and Maricopa is coming down for the Ds in lead.
PA - I thought was less clear cut than Alistair said - Alistair showed me why he thought I was wrong which looked credible but Barnesian thinks it could be close. Who knows.
If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
I think you are spot on, apart from the last sentence. The huge path that "could" open up suddenly is the US supreme court. They will have the final say on the election. The arguments will be pathetic, but do the judges care or will the court be loyal to the President who packed it?
I disagree. If there’s anything coming out of the states it’s that the ballots are being counted properly and in a careful manner ( incredibly slowly, I’ll grant you). The Supreme Court is politically appointed but at its heart it is not a party political machine. Where it does have leanings it is more along moralistic lines in accordance with the interpretation of the constitution and the bill of rights. I don’t think the Democrats have anything to fear from the Supreme Court unless some drastic news comes out that throws the process into doubt.
Now ACB is a bit of a wildcard because she was a blatantly political appointee. But she is at heart and by career a jurist (just a very conservative one) so there’s nothing to suggest that she would automatically favour the GOP in an election unless there is some residual loyalty there due to the process. Similarly Gorsuch and Kavanaugh have both ruled against the Trump WH before, and both are Trump appointees. Roberts is certainly independent. Clarence Thomas is on a bit of a different planet so who knows there.
In the last week, Starmer and Dodds have both been entirely vindicated. Politically, though, it is unlikely to matter.
It doesn't matter at all anywhere. They might have said the right thing weeks ago and done the right thing in the HoC but all anyone will care about is that the govt won the votes and Lab supported them.
That is not a good look for an Opposition.
It's better to be right than wrong. Doing the right thing is also important, even if there are no votes in it.
Doing the right thing is very important but I think it legitimate to adopt the position that anything you do is better than anything the govt does. Even if it's exactly the same policy (which it's not) then you need to find a differentiation.
Otherwise you can sit in your room all year being right. But out of power.
Yep - I agree with that. Being good at the politics bit is vital. Starmer is learning, I think; Dodds has a long way to go.
If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
Thanks... As others have said it really is ridiculous that when the popular vote is so clear that the result is still so much in doubt. It seems to me the real price should be closer to evens than the current market, but I wonder what would trigger the unwind under the current scenarios you name. If AZ and NV called for Trump before PA, I guess that would do it.
If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
NV is difficult because apparently the Republicans had a big drop-off element in Clark, which is why they have been confident.
AZ I think will go Trump. Worth looking at the counties to report on the NYT by order of votes counted. A fair few Republican strongholds and Maricopa is coming down for the Ds in lead.
PA - I thought was less clear cut than Alistair said - Alistair showed me why he thought I was wrong which looked credible but Barnesian thinks it could be close. Who knows.
I guess any defectors who join Farage’s anti lockdown Reform party couldn’t call a by election even if they wanted to?
Up to 40 could do so and still leave Boris with a majority but make their point
There were two defectors to UKIP and that was over the EU which is historically a huge Tory issue. The idea of 1 defector let alone 40 over the issue if lockdown is ridiculous.
In the last week, Starmer and Dodds have both been entirely vindicated. Politically, though, it is unlikely to matter.
It doesn't matter at all anywhere. They might have said the right thing weeks ago and done the right thing in the HoC but all anyone will care about is that the govt won the votes and Lab supported them.
That is not a good look for an Opposition.
It's better to be right than wrong. Doing the right thing is also important, even if there are no votes in it.
Only ‘right’ in the sense that it’s what the two major parties agree on. Like when Cameron and Miliband’s parties thought it best we Remain in the EU. The public didn’t unanimously agree with that either
If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
I think you are spot on, apart from the last sentence. The huge path that "could" open up suddenly is the US supreme court. They will have the final say on the election. The arguments will be pathetic, but do the judges care or will the court be loyal to the President who packed it?
I disagree. If there’s anything coming out of the states it’s that the ballots are being counted properly and in a careful manner ( incredibly slowly, I’ll grant you). The Supreme Court is politically appointed but at its heart it is not a party political machine. Where it does have leanings it is more along moralistic lines in accordance with the interpretation of the constitution and the bill of rights. I don’t think the Democrats have anything to fear from the Supreme Court unless some drastic news comes out that throws the process into doubt.
Now ACB is a bit of a wildcard because she was a blatantly political appointee. But she is at heart and by career a jurist (just a very conservative one) so there’s nothing to suggest that she would automatically favour the GOP in an election unless there is some residual loyalty there due to the process. Similarly Gorsuch and Kavanaugh have both ruled against the Trump WH before, and both are Trump appointees. Roberts is certainly independent. Clarence Thomas is on a bit of a different planet so who knows there.
I hope you are right, and I do agree it is much more likely that the court rejects Trumps nonsense, but I also think the SC is Trumps best chance. Id say the current 15% for Trump is about right, but made up of perhaps 5% of winning it fairly and 10% to win it unfairly in the courts.
If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
It's also worth taking into account who runs the courts in these states.
In GA, I'm thinking the SoS will declare a Trump victory, knowing any D challenge in the courts is likely to fail in GA and, if it gets to the SC, has the issue of a Republican majority;
In MI, the Supreme Court is Republican and has already made decisions against Whitmer;
More difficult for the Rs in PA (D) and Wisconsin (mixture I think). But, with PA, there is the SC option they tried last time.
If this comes down to lawsuits, there is a crucial difference in what is being argued. With the Democrats, it will be about adding votes that have come in (GA, maybe NC). Presumably, the 2000 decision holds sway.
With the Republicans, they will be looking to strike votes out. Expect questions to be raised about the very high return rates of VBM in large, mainly black cities and where the SoS is Democrat.
So are you keeping your prediction of a Trump win? Just by legal chicanery though?
Haha, don't think I said how it should be won, just that he would
In seriousness, I think that would be a bad outcome.
However, there would be enough grey areas for the Republicans to contest, for example the 130K dump to Biden with 0 votes for anyone else in MI.
If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
It's also worth taking into account who runs the courts in these states.
In GA, I'm thinking the SoS will declare a Trump victory, knowing any D challenge in the courts is likely to fail in GA and, if it gets to the SC, has the issue of a Republican majority;
In MI, the Supreme Court is Republican and has already made decisions against Whitmer;
More difficult for the Rs in PA (D) and Wisconsin (mixture I think). But, with PA, there is the SC option they tried last time.
If this comes down to lawsuits, there is a crucial difference in what is being argued. With the Democrats, it will be about adding votes that have come in (GA, maybe NC). Presumably, the 2000 decision holds sway.
With the Republicans, they will be looking to strike votes out. Expect questions to be raised about the very high return rates of VBM in large, mainly black cities and where the SoS is Democrat.
So are you keeping your prediction of a Trump win? Just by legal chicanery though?
Haha, don't think I said how it should be won, just that he would
In seriousness, I think that would be a bad outcome.
However, there would be enough grey areas for the Republicans to contest, for example the 130K dump to Biden with 0 votes for anyone else in MI.
Except that didn't happen: there were 140K votes which split 130K:10K.
If Biden does win its going to be feel very odd having a President waiting for data before saying anything isn't it?
Do we think Trump will set him up as the real President in exile in another country like an Avignon Pope/Antipope?
If they do manage to get him out of the WH he will start campaigning for 2024 the next day. He isn't going anywhere.
Oh that`s grimly interesting. I never thought of that. Surely GOP won`t allow Trump to run again??
How the fuck would they stop him? He's proven himself a relentless and stunningly effective campaigner that can energise the bible thumpers, conspiraloons and other assorted white trash like nobody else.
The conspiraloons and AWT will long for a Trumpalike, but the bible thumpers have proven willing to suck the withered cock of anybody who promises them a judge.
If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
NV is difficult because apparently the Republicans had a big drop-off element in Clark, which is why they have been confident.
AZ I think will go Trump. Worth looking at the counties to report on the NYT by order of votes counted. A fair few Republican strongholds and Maricopa is coming down for the Ds in lead.
PA - I thought was less clear cut than Alistair said - Alistair showed me why he thought I was wrong which looked credible but Barnesian thinks it could be close. Who knows.
GA?
I think they will call it for Trump. Whether it is or not is a different matter. I expect that one to be FL 2000 Redux if it comes down to being the crucial state
I guess any defectors who join Farage’s anti lockdown Reform party couldn’t call a by election even if they wanted to?
Up to 40 could do so and still leave Boris with a majority but make their point
There were two defectors to UKIP and that was over the EU which is historically a huge Tory issue. The idea of 1 defector let alone 40 over the issue if lockdown is ridiculous.
I think we'll definitely see a couple before long - the pull of Nigel, and all he says and does, is just too intoxicating for many.
I guess any defectors who join Farage’s anti lockdown Reform party couldn’t call a by election even if they wanted to?
Up to 40 could do so and still leave Boris with a majority but make their point
There were two defectors to UKIP and that was over the EU which is historically a huge Tory issue. The idea of 1 defector let alone 40 over the issue if lockdown is ridiculous.
Oooh!
What prices are you offering? At least one defector/ no defectors to the Reform party (before the next GE)
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
NV is difficult because apparently the Republicans had a big drop-off element in Clark, which is why they have been confident.
AZ I think will go Trump. Worth looking at the counties to report on the NYT by order of votes counted. A fair few Republican strongholds and Maricopa is coming down for the Ds in lead.
PA - I thought was less clear cut than Alistair said - Alistair showed me why he thought I was wrong which looked credible but Barnesian thinks it could be close. Who knows.
GA?
I think they will call it for Trump. Whether it is or not is a different matter. I expect that one to be FL 2000 Redux if it comes down to being the crucial state
State authorities don't "call" elections. They count the ballots and report and then certify the results.
I guess any defectors who join Farage’s anti lockdown Reform party couldn’t call a by election even if they wanted to?
Up to 40 could do so and still leave Boris with a majority but make their point
There were two defectors to UKIP and that was over the EU which is historically a huge Tory issue. The idea of 1 defector let alone 40 over the issue if lockdown is ridiculous.
I think we'll definitely see a couple before long - the pull of Nigel, and all he says and does, is just too intoxicating for many.
I doubt it.
For all that people claim MP's are paid poorly, the pull of an MP's salary and the egostroking that goes with it is too intoxicating for many to throw that away.
Lockdown II, Lockdown far lighter in my Dorset town. Far more businesses open and far more people around. Suspect observance will be a lot lighter this time. Frankly, business must continue where it can.
Furlough through to March - public finances take another hit. Just not sure how long this can continue.
What are people thinking about next May's elections? Will they happen?
If they got rolled over the 2022, that would be a pretty packed year wouldn’t it? Must be a chance though - else a need to go fully postal vote?
If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
It's also worth taking into account who runs the courts in these states.
In GA, I'm thinking the SoS will declare a Trump victory, knowing any D challenge in the courts is likely to fail in GA and, if it gets to the SC, has the issue of a Republican majority;
In MI, the Supreme Court is Republican and has already made decisions against Whitmer;
More difficult for the Rs in PA (D) and Wisconsin (mixture I think). But, with PA, there is the SC option they tried last time.
If this comes down to lawsuits, there is a crucial difference in what is being argued. With the Democrats, it will be about adding votes that have come in (GA, maybe NC). Presumably, the 2000 decision holds sway.
With the Republicans, they will be looking to strike votes out. Expect questions to be raised about the very high return rates of VBM in large, mainly black cities and where the SoS is Democrat.
So are you keeping your prediction of a Trump win? Just by legal chicanery though?
Haha, don't think I said how it should be won, just that he would
In seriousness, I think that would be a bad outcome.
However, there would be enough grey areas for the Republicans to contest, for example the 130K dump to Biden with 0 votes for anyone else in MI.
Except that didn't happen: there were 140K votes which split 130K:10K.
No apparently it was a straight 130K dump.
I'm not quoting some right wing nut job website but from someone who - and I can't give away more than this - got this from within the Trump campaign (I know, irony etc etc). It was a 130K dump and there will be legal challenges around that.
If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
NV is difficult because apparently the Republicans had a big drop-off element in Clark, which is why they have been confident.
AZ I think will go Trump. Worth looking at the counties to report on the NYT by order of votes counted. A fair few Republican strongholds and Maricopa is coming down for the Ds in lead.
PA - I thought was less clear cut than Alistair said - Alistair showed me why he thought I was wrong which looked credible but Barnesian thinks it could be close. Who knows.
GA?
In regards NV, your comment about the drop offs is true, and originally I had concerns as you correctly point out the Rs have done well with those so far, not hugely, but well. However it was confirmed that there are still a lot of Clark postal votes from the last day or two before voting day still to be counted. Those have skewed very much for Dems. If Trump had some fairly big rural numbers still to be counted it might be close, but they are pretty much all counted. Though the gap is currently small at 7000 at the end I expect it to get a fair big bigger.
One other thing, IF they count the drop off box votes its quite possible that lead could shrink if they declare in batches, and then the postals will boost Bidens lead. So if they do do it that way I expect some backing Biden to panic for a short time at least
If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
It's also worth taking into account who runs the courts in these states.
In GA, I'm thinking the SoS will declare a Trump victory, knowing any D challenge in the courts is likely to fail in GA and, if it gets to the SC, has the issue of a Republican majority;
In MI, the Supreme Court is Republican and has already made decisions against Whitmer;
More difficult for the Rs in PA (D) and Wisconsin (mixture I think). But, with PA, there is the SC option they tried last time.
If this comes down to lawsuits, there is a crucial difference in what is being argued. With the Democrats, it will be about adding votes that have come in (GA, maybe NC). Presumably, the 2000 decision holds sway.
With the Republicans, they will be looking to strike votes out. Expect questions to be raised about the very high return rates of VBM in large, mainly black cities and where the SoS is Democrat.
So are you keeping your prediction of a Trump win? Just by legal chicanery though?
Haha, don't think I said how it should be won, just that he would
In seriousness, I think that would be a bad outcome.
However, there would be enough grey areas for the Republicans to contest, for example the 130K dump to Biden with 0 votes for anyone else in MI.
Except that didn't happen: there were 140K votes which split 130K:10K.
No apparently it was a straight 130K dump.
I'm not quoting some right wing nut job website but from someone who - and I can't give away more than this - got this from within the Trump campaign (I know, irony etc etc). It was a 130K dump and there will be legal challenges around that.
So you did get it from a right wing nut job then.
That never happened. You were here when the 130k happened and commented about it at the time - and yes Trump got 10k at the time.
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
NV is difficult because apparently the Republicans had a big drop-off element in Clark, which is why they have been confident.
AZ I think will go Trump. Worth looking at the counties to report on the NYT by order of votes counted. A fair few Republican strongholds and Maricopa is coming down for the Ds in lead.
PA - I thought was less clear cut than Alistair said - Alistair showed me why he thought I was wrong which looked credible but Barnesian thinks it could be close. Who knows.
GA?
I think they will call it for Trump. Whether it is or not is a different matter. I expect that one to be FL 2000 Redux if it comes down to being the crucial state
State authorities don't "call" elections. They count the ballots and report and then certify the results.
Thanks for the clarification. Doesn't really matter in practice though does it?
If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
It's also worth taking into account who runs the courts in these states.
In GA, I'm thinking the SoS will declare a Trump victory, knowing any D challenge in the courts is likely to fail in GA and, if it gets to the SC, has the issue of a Republican majority;
In MI, the Supreme Court is Republican and has already made decisions against Whitmer;
More difficult for the Rs in PA (D) and Wisconsin (mixture I think). But, with PA, there is the SC option they tried last time.
If this comes down to lawsuits, there is a crucial difference in what is being argued. With the Democrats, it will be about adding votes that have come in (GA, maybe NC). Presumably, the 2000 decision holds sway.
With the Republicans, they will be looking to strike votes out. Expect questions to be raised about the very high return rates of VBM in large, mainly black cities and where the SoS is Democrat.
So are you keeping your prediction of a Trump win? Just by legal chicanery though?
Haha, don't think I said how it should be won, just that he would
In seriousness, I think that would be a bad outcome.
However, there would be enough grey areas for the Republicans to contest, for example the 130K dump to Biden with 0 votes for anyone else in MI.
Except that didn't happen: there were 140K votes which split 130K:10K.
No apparently it was a straight 130K dump.
I'm not quoting some right wing nut job website but from someone who - and I can't give away more than this - got this from within the Trump campaign (I know, irony etc etc). It was a 130K dump and there will be legal challenges around that.
What are people thinking about next May's elections? Will they happen?
The sensible, pragmatic decision would be to decide now to switch them to all-postal so that there's plenty of time to plan printing, posting and public information.
I suspect that would be seen as too negative on the virus, so the risk is that we're faced with last-minute decisions.
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
NV is difficult because apparently the Republicans had a big drop-off element in Clark, which is why they have been confident.
AZ I think will go Trump. Worth looking at the counties to report on the NYT by order of votes counted. A fair few Republican strongholds and Maricopa is coming down for the Ds in lead.
PA - I thought was less clear cut than Alistair said - Alistair showed me why he thought I was wrong which looked credible but Barnesian thinks it could be close. Who knows.
GA?
I think they will call it for Trump. Whether it is or not is a different matter. I expect that one to be FL 2000 Redux if it comes down to being the crucial state
State authorities don't "call" elections. They count the ballots and report and then certify the results.
Thanks for the clarification. Doesn't really matter in practice though does it?
Well yes. Point being they can't just reach a point and stop counting. Or declare something different to the actual results.
What are people thinking about next May's elections? Will they happen?
The sensible, pragmatic decision would be to decide now to switch them to all-postal so that there's plenty of time to plan printing, posting and public information.
I suspect that would be seen as too negative on the virus, so the risk is that we're faced with last-minute decisions.
Agreed. Just avoid any uncertainty and make the whole thing postal only now. If things improve, they can have polling places where postal ballots can be dropped off in person.
Perhaps later today we can enjoy the first Trump press conference after Biden has been announced as the winner.
I wonder what he will say...?
This is a great shame, it is a fraud on the country, that is a great shame but we are winning and we are claiming we have won in Pennsylvania and Georgia and Michigan and we are going to the courts but it is a great shame and a great fraud on the country that we will go to the courts because we are winning and it is a great shame and a fraud and we are winning and we will win the votes and all votes we are winning and it is a great shame the fraud . . .
If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
Is there a small chance Trump could sneak through? Perhaps, but unlikely. He needs a lot to fall his way. Might be worth a flutter but DYOR.
Obviously this is on my personal fear that the ogre isn´t dead- But the problem is, as I see it, that he in fact he actually is still very much alive. Georgia was flipping, but now that looks unlikely, AZ was Biden, but now isn´t, so whats to say that PA doesn´t flip either? Obviously this is down to a very few thousand, and it seems to me that Trump is value if such a small gap is still out there (even before we look to snookers in recounts or the courts). Any comfort or thoughts?
So my understanding of all of them at this point is:
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
NV is difficult because apparently the Republicans had a big drop-off element in Clark, which is why they have been confident.
AZ I think will go Trump. Worth looking at the counties to report on the NYT by order of votes counted. A fair few Republican strongholds and Maricopa is coming down for the Ds in lead.
PA - I thought was less clear cut than Alistair said - Alistair showed me why he thought I was wrong which looked credible but Barnesian thinks it could be close. Who knows.
GA?
In regards NV, your comment about the drop offs is true, and originally I had concerns as you correctly point out the Rs have done well with those so far, not hugely, but well. However it was confirmed that there are still a lot of Clark postal votes from the last day or two before voting day still to be counted. Those have skewed very much for Dems. If Trump had some fairly big rural numbers still to be counted it might be close, but they are pretty much all counted. Though the gap is currently small at 7000 at the end I expect it to get a fair big bigger.
One other thing, IF they count the drop off box votes its quite possible that lead could shrink if they declare in batches, and then the postals will boost Bidens lead. So if they do do it that way I expect some backing Biden to panic for a short time at least
NV they were counting all day yesterday but not reporting expect a lot in first batch this morning NV time
If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
It's also worth taking into account who runs the courts in these states.
In GA, I'm thinking the SoS will declare a Trump victory, knowing any D challenge in the courts is likely to fail in GA and, if it gets to the SC, has the issue of a Republican majority;
In MI, the Supreme Court is Republican and has already made decisions against Whitmer;
More difficult for the Rs in PA (D) and Wisconsin (mixture I think). But, with PA, there is the SC option they tried last time.
If this comes down to lawsuits, there is a crucial difference in what is being argued. With the Democrats, it will be about adding votes that have come in (GA, maybe NC). Presumably, the 2000 decision holds sway.
With the Republicans, they will be looking to strike votes out. Expect questions to be raised about the very high return rates of VBM in large, mainly black cities and where the SoS is Democrat.
So are you keeping your prediction of a Trump win? Just by legal chicanery though?
Haha, don't think I said how it should be won, just that he would
In seriousness, I think that would be a bad outcome.
However, there would be enough grey areas for the Republicans to contest, for example the 130K dump to Biden with 0 votes for anyone else in MI.
Except that didn't happen: there were 140K votes which split 130K:10K.
No apparently it was a straight 130K dump.
I'm not quoting some right wing nut job website but from someone who - and I can't give away more than this - got this from within the Trump campaign (I know, irony etc etc). It was a 130K dump and there will be legal challenges around that.
So you did get it from a right wing nut job then.
That never happened. You were here when the 130k happened and commented about it at the time - and yes Trump got 10k at the time.
Which is why I did say irony when I was typing it....
Look, I am only quoting what I have heard was said by the Trump campaign. What I said on the night was in reaction to the info then. The two are separate things.
Anyway, why don't you go back to predicting us a 381.5 EC Biden win
If I understand this right, then if Trump holds PA and AZ then he wins? Its all down to PA now?
Yes that’s right re winning. But if Biden gets AZ and NV he doesn’t need PA.
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
Then maybe we should be topping up on Trump? GA not flipping and AZ still in play. This is still not over?
It's also worth taking into account who runs the courts in these states.
In GA, I'm thinking the SoS will declare a Trump victory, knowing any D challenge in the courts is likely to fail in GA and, if it gets to the SC, has the issue of a Republican majority;
In MI, the Supreme Court is Republican and has already made decisions against Whitmer;
More difficult for the Rs in PA (D) and Wisconsin (mixture I think). But, with PA, there is the SC option they tried last time.
If this comes down to lawsuits, there is a crucial difference in what is being argued. With the Democrats, it will be about adding votes that have come in (GA, maybe NC). Presumably, the 2000 decision holds sway.
With the Republicans, they will be looking to strike votes out. Expect questions to be raised about the very high return rates of VBM in large, mainly black cities and where the SoS is Democrat.
So are you keeping your prediction of a Trump win? Just by legal chicanery though?
Haha, don't think I said how it should be won, just that he would
In seriousness, I think that would be a bad outcome.
However, there would be enough grey areas for the Republicans to contest, for example the 130K dump to Biden with 0 votes for anyone else in MI.
Except that didn't happen: there were 140K votes which split 130K:10K.
No apparently it was a straight 130K dump.
I'm not quoting some right wing nut job website but from someone who - and I can't give away more than this - got this from within the Trump campaign (I know, irony etc etc). It was a 130K dump and there will be legal challenges around that.
You can literally see the bump in the Trump Vote line at the same time.
What are people thinking about next May's elections? Will they happen?
The sensible, pragmatic decision would be to decide now to switch them to all-postal so that there's plenty of time to plan printing, posting and public information.
I suspect that would be seen as too negative on the virus, so the risk is that we're faced with last-minute decisions.
The only reason for elections not going ahead would be objections about parties being unable to campaign. But i don't see why an election HAS to require a traditional election campaign. All you need for an election is an ability for all eligible voters to cast their vote. Campaign or no campaign. If that is perceived to advantage one side or another, tough. It's the same for everyone.
Comments
And you can't...
In GA, I'm thinking the SoS will declare a Trump victory, knowing any D challenge in the courts is likely to fail in GA and, if it gets to the SC, has the issue of a Republican majority;
In MI, the Supreme Court is Republican and has already made decisions against Whitmer;
More difficult for the Rs in PA (D) and Wisconsin (mixture I think). But, with PA, there is the SC option they tried last time.
If this comes down to lawsuits, there is a crucial difference in what is being argued. With the Democrats, it will be about adding votes that have come in (GA, maybe NC). Presumably, the 2000 decision holds sway.
With the Republicans, they will be looking to strike votes out. Expect questions to be raised about the very high return rates of VBM in large, mainly black cities and where the SoS is Democrat.
We could end up with Biden just winning WiMiPa which I'd have said was quite a boring result. but we have taken the scenic route.
Levelling up!?
At least there is only 51 days till Santa comes
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1324341633928826880?s=20
Otherwise you can sit in your room all year being right. But out of power.
It is up to us to determine our own future. Success or failure lies in our own hands, in the governments we elect, in the decisions we make. Not relying upon others doing it for us.
As a parent, Santa is the same when you think about it.
GA - too close to call. See update above from Nate Silver.
NV - probably expected Dem. My understanding is the ballots to be counted come mainly from Clark which is a big Dem area.
AZ - again the remaining ballots are generally more from Dem areas. But Trump does better here than mail ins elsewhere. So it is looking likely Dem but there is a risk it falls the wrong way.
PA - the Biden camp seem very optimistic here, nothing but good mood music. The way the results are breaking suggests that on current trends he’s done enough to have a small but ok lead. We just can’t be sure how much yet. Some are saying tens of thousands, others 100k+.
All in all I can’t really see a huge path opening up suddenly for Trump.
PA is plenty.
Presume Trump lawsuit wants to exclude Miltary as they are LOOOSSSSEEEERRRRS
Turns out he is LOOOSSSSEEERRR IN CHIEF!!!
Furlough through to March - public finances take another hit. Just not sure how long this can continue.
What are people thinking about next May's elections? Will they happen?
Trump: 3206764
Biden: 3030266
Biden needs to win the remaining mail ballot 68/32 to win. As to don't know ehere those ballots are (due to the reporting lag) I have no idea how plausible that is.
On average it is more than believable, the current mail ballot average is 76/22, but no idea where those ballots are due to how shit American elections are.
The 'average' result is Biden by 75k
As a teacher I was not expecting a huge effect, but then last night I got an e-mail saying that as an "extremely vulnerable person" I needed to work from home: it would have been very helpful to have had that message a bit earlier so that I could have prepared more for it.
Boris Johnson explicitly said we were leaving the Single Market during the referendum. How many voters have heard of Boris Johnson?
AZ I think will go Trump. Worth looking at the counties to report on the NYT by order of votes counted. A fair few Republican strongholds and Maricopa is coming down for the Ds in lead.
PA - I thought was less clear cut than Alistair said - Alistair showed me why he thought I was wrong which looked credible but Barnesian thinks it could be close. Who knows.
Now ACB is a bit of a wildcard because she was a blatantly political appointee. But she is at heart and by career a jurist (just a very conservative one) so there’s nothing to suggest that she would automatically favour the GOP in an election unless there is some residual loyalty there due to the process. Similarly Gorsuch and Kavanaugh have both ruled against the Trump WH before, and both are Trump appointees. Roberts is certainly independent. Clarence Thomas is on a bit of a different planet so who knows there.
Straight after advert break
Up to 40 could do so and still leave Boris with a majority but make their point
In seriousness, I think that would be a bad outcome.
However, there would be enough grey areas for the Republicans to contest, for example the 130K dump to Biden with 0 votes for anyone else in MI.
That said, even the conservative numbers give Biden the W.
- Bucks County 28k all mail in (77% Biden Mail in so far)
Straight after advert break.
I just want this killed off now.
What prices are you offering? At least one defector/ no defectors to the Reform party (before the next GE)
For all that people claim MP's are paid poorly, the pull of an MP's salary and the egostroking that goes with it is too intoxicating for many to throw that away.
Gonna be very close indeed.
Biden needs roughly 70% of them.
I'm not quoting some right wing nut job website but from someone who - and I can't give away more than this - got this from within the Trump campaign (I know, irony etc etc). It was a 130K dump and there will be legal challenges around that.
One other thing, IF they count the drop off box votes its quite possible that lead could shrink if they declare in batches, and then the postals will boost Bidens lead. So if they do do it that way I expect some backing Biden to panic for a short time at least
50K LEFT IN GEORGIA
SOS Office live on CNN
Pile on Biden? 1.49
DYOR
I wonder what he will say...?
That never happened. You were here when the 130k happened and commented about it at the time - and yes Trump got 10k at the time.
I suspect that would be seen as too negative on the virus, so the risk is that we're faced with last-minute decisions.
Look, I am only quoting what I have heard was said by the Trump campaign. What I said on the night was in reaction to the info then. The two are separate things.
Anyway, why don't you go back to predicting us a 381.5 EC Biden win