Looks like I may add Georgia to my list of hits. I think Biden nabs it by 10K give or take.
Depending on when PA starts rolling in, estimates around 3-5 GMT, we will have Biden called as President Elect by afternoon tea. Very civilised .... More tea Vicar ?
Not too early @JackW - did you see the comments by their SoS?
No. I've been supervising the Auchentennach Fine Pies Takeaway Emporium.
What is the updated info ?
Trump's lead is down to 18,000, 25,000 votes left to be counted.
Penn Dem Senator says no question they have won Penn.
If he wins Pennsylvania that's enough isn't it?
Depends - a few sites have called AZ for Biden so yes then but the NYT hasn't, in that case no
He also said just over 400,00 votes left to be counted so Biden can still clearly win but if all votes over 400K have been declared and its just those to count and declare then it will be way tighter than 100,000 for Biden
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger spoke exclusively with Channel 2 Action News This Morning. There are now under 25,000 ballots left to be counted and Raffensperger says the state should be done by noon today.
6:20 a.m.
The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Thanaks Paul, looks like Trump has held on in GA
Too early to say that IMHO. Only thing we can say is as predicted it is going to be incredibly tight.
If it is under 25K votes and 18.5K lead, I don't see how that is overcome.
Plus the SoS is R so I think he is rushing this through
As far as I’m aware, we are not sure yet if the 25k figure is uncounted and unreported (ie all the rest of the ballots have been reported) or whether there are still some other ballots to report.
From the news report:
"The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden."
That was in the same interview as the <25K votes comments</p>
Something is not being reported correctly, because 4% of GA's vote is substantially more than 25k
The 25K and the 18.5K are both from the SoS office so they will be the official numbers presumably.
The SoS gave an interview to a TV station with the 25K number and said they would be done by noon.
Given he is Republican, I think if Trump was behind, they would be scrambling around for any loose votes they could find so, given that and the vote split, that's why I think it will be called for Trump.
His interview on CNN said 40k I thought and then absentee and Military ballots
He did say they would be done by noon on the Mail ins but that Absentees would follow and Military next Tuesday
Very good. I have already copy and pasted it (with the attribution) into my slides on infection control.
Yep - its a well known model for all kinds of things. We use it for lab safety.
What type of lab do you work in? Research?
It's an idea that is so standard across so many fields, that it is easy to forget that everyone doesn't know of the idea.
Swiss Cheese model in terms of "events" in engineering or various forms etc...
Again, that I know. James Reason and all that. Also, while very useful properly applied, a dangerous safety model if the only one applied, as amply demonstrated by Perrow (Normal Accident Theory) and Rasmussen (Resilience Engineering), and more recently Weick and Sutcliffe (high reliability organization).
My point was not about the Swiss Cheese model, but about the quality of its application to public health communication specific to COVID infection control
The only problem with watching CNN. Having to watch the same irritating Quest Means Business advert. Who is that utter tool?
There aren’t any adverts on their live feed, it just goes quiet if you are watching from abroad. Which is much better than having to listen to all the crap being touted on Fox.
Looks like I may add Georgia to my list of hits. I think Biden nabs it by 10K give or take.
Depending on when PA starts rolling in, estimates around 3-5 GMT, we will have Biden called as President Elect by afternoon tea. Very civilised .... More tea Vicar ?
Not too early @JackW - did you see the comments by their SoS?
No. I've been supervising the Auchentennach Fine Pies Takeaway Emporium.
What is the updated info ?
Trump's lead is down to 18,000, 25,000 votes left to be counted.
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger spoke exclusively with Channel 2 Action News This Morning. There are now under 25,000 ballots left to be counted and Raffensperger says the state should be done by noon today.
6:20 a.m.
The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Thanaks Paul, looks like Trump has held on in GA
Too early to say that IMHO. Only thing we can say is as predicted it is going to be incredibly tight.
If it is under 25K votes and 18.5K lead, I don't see how that is overcome.
Plus the SoS is R so I think he is rushing this through
As far as I’m aware, we are not sure yet if the 25k figure is uncounted and unreported (ie all the rest of the ballots have been reported) or whether there are still some other ballots to report.
From the news report:
"The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden."
That was in the same interview as the <25K votes comments</p>
Something is not being reported correctly, because 4% of GA's vote is substantially more than 25k
The 25K and the 18.5K are both from the SoS office so they will be the official numbers presumably.
The SoS gave an interview to a TV station with the 25K number and said they would be done by noon.
Given he is Republican, I think if Trump was behind, they would be scrambling around for any loose votes they could find so, given that and the vote split, that's why I think it will be called for Trump.
His interview on CNN said 40k I thought and then absentee and Military ballots
He did say they would be done by noon on the Mail ins but that Absentees would follow and Military next Tuesday
The only problem with watching CNN. Having to watch the same irritating Quest Means Business advert. Who is that utter tool?
There aren’t any adverts on their live feed, it just goes quiet if you are watching from abroad. Which is much better than having to listen to all the crap being touted on Fox.
That Quest bloke seems like someone they rejected from UK networks because he’d be too annoying. Which is quite an achievement when we have Piers Morgan , Robert Peston and Kay Burley.
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger spoke exclusively with Channel 2 Action News This Morning. There are now under 25,000 ballots left to be counted and Raffensperger says the state should be done by noon today.
6:20 a.m.
The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Thanaks Paul, looks like Trump has held on in GA
Too early to say that IMHO. Only thing we can say is as predicted it is going to be incredibly tight.
If it is under 25K votes and 18.5K lead, I don't see how that is overcome.
Plus the SoS is R so I think he is rushing this through
As far as I’m aware, we are not sure yet if the 25k figure is uncounted and unreported (ie all the rest of the ballots have been reported) or whether there are still some other ballots to report.
From the news report:
"The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden."
That was in the same interview as the <25K votes comments</p>
Something is not being reported correctly, because 4% of GA's vote is substantially more than 25k
The 25K and the 18.5K are both from the SoS office so they will be the official numbers presumably.
The SoS gave an interview to a TV station with the 25K number and said they would be done by noon.
Given he is Republican, I think if Trump was behind, they would be scrambling around for any loose votes they could find so, given that and the vote split, that's why I think it will be called for Trump.
His interview on CNN said 40k I thought and then absentee and Military ballots
He did say they would be done by noon on the Mail ins but that Absentees would follow and Military next Tuesday
The big headache here is we don’t know if the estimates are accurate or if the reporting deviates from the count. Those 200k ballots from PA last night might be counted but not be reported yet. It’s bloody hard to tell because of the slapdash way that the US does their elections.
The big headache here is we don’t know if the estimates are accurate or if the reporting deviates from the count. Those 200k ballots from PA last night might be counted but not be reported yet. It’s bloody hard to tell because of the slapdash way that the US does their elections.
Individual County websites are exploding under the load. I can't access over half of Pennsylvania counties at the moment.
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger spoke exclusively with Channel 2 Action News This Morning. There are now under 25,000 ballots left to be counted and Raffensperger says the state should be done by noon today.
6:20 a.m.
The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Thanaks Paul, looks like Trump has held on in GA
Too early to say that IMHO. Only thing we can say is as predicted it is going to be incredibly tight.
If it is under 25K votes and 18.5K lead, I don't see how that is overcome.
Plus the SoS is R so I think he is rushing this through
As far as I’m aware, we are not sure yet if the 25k figure is uncounted and unreported (ie all the rest of the ballots have been reported) or whether there are still some other ballots to report.
From the news report:
"The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden."
That was in the same interview as the <25K votes comments</p>
Something is not being reported correctly, because 4% of GA's vote is substantially more than 25k
The 25K and the 18.5K are both from the SoS office so they will be the official numbers presumably.
The SoS gave an interview to a TV station with the 25K number and said they would be done by noon.
Given he is Republican, I think if Trump was behind, they would be scrambling around for any loose votes they could find so, given that and the vote split, that's why I think it will be called for Trump.
His interview on CNN said 40k I thought and then absentee and Military ballots
He did say they would be done by noon on the Mail ins but that Absentees would follow and Military next Tuesday
The big headache here is we don’t know if the estimates are accurate or if the reporting deviates from the count. Those 200k ballots from PA last night might be counted but not be reported yet. It’s bloody hard to tell because of the slapdash way that the US does their elections.
The footage suggests they aren’t even in sports halls.. Amateurs.
Furlough scheme extended to the end of March next year. Certainly until January this is at the 80% level , to be reviewed then. The financial commitment made in this statement alone probably exceeds the commitments made in any budget in modern times.
In the last week, Starmer and Dodds have both been entirely vindicated. Politically, though, it is unlikely to matter.
Yes, U-turns are a funny one in politics. If the public think you’re right to change course, but that there’s complexity, you often seem to get credit for it.
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger spoke exclusively with Channel 2 Action News This Morning. There are now under 25,000 ballots left to be counted and Raffensperger says the state should be done by noon today.
6:20 a.m.
The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Thanaks Paul, looks like Trump has held on in GA
Too early to say that IMHO. Only thing we can say is as predicted it is going to be incredibly tight.
If it is under 25K votes and 18.5K lead, I don't see how that is overcome.
Plus the SoS is R so I think he is rushing this through
As far as I’m aware, we are not sure yet if the 25k figure is uncounted and unreported (ie all the rest of the ballots have been reported) or whether there are still some other ballots to report.
From the news report:
"The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden."
That was in the same interview as the <25K votes comments</p>
Something is not being reported correctly, because 4% of GA's vote is substantially more than 25k
The 25K and the 18.5K are both from the SoS office so they will be the official numbers presumably.
The SoS gave an interview to a TV station with the 25K number and said they would be done by noon.
Given he is Republican, I think if Trump was behind, they would be scrambling around for any loose votes they could find so, given that and the vote split, that's why I think it will be called for Trump.
His interview on CNN said 40k I thought and then absentee and Military ballots
He did say they would be done by noon on the Mail ins but that Absentees would follow and Military next Tuesday
Scroll down to the comments at 6;20am / 6:31am their time
Thats important info giving the betting
Thanks
Do you think the 25k includes absentee but not Military?
Have to admit I don't know. As mentioned, I don't think he would do a TV interview if the Rs didn't think they can say they have held GA - he would be trying to find extra votes in the outlying counties.
(You're right, it is important betting info but I can't get onto Betfair )
And yet numbers are falling, the tiers were working and a ton of cold water has been poured over Whitty and Valiance's 4,000 deaths figure and their general use (abuse?) of stats.
Despite the reality, this administration ploughs on with Hancock's blinkers firmly fixed on and thousands at risk of early death from non-covid and mental health disasters.
In the last week, Starmer and Dodds have both been entirely vindicated. Politically, though, it is unlikely to matter.
It doesn't matter at all anywhere. They might have said the right thing weeks ago and done the right thing in the HoC but all anyone will care about is that the govt won the votes and Lab supported them.
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger spoke exclusively with Channel 2 Action News This Morning. There are now under 25,000 ballots left to be counted and Raffensperger says the state should be done by noon today.
6:20 a.m.
The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Thanaks Paul, looks like Trump has held on in GA
Too early to say that IMHO. Only thing we can say is as predicted it is going to be incredibly tight.
If it is under 25K votes and 18.5K lead, I don't see how that is overcome.
Plus the SoS is R so I think he is rushing this through
As far as I’m aware, we are not sure yet if the 25k figure is uncounted and unreported (ie all the rest of the ballots have been reported) or whether there are still some other ballots to report.
From the news report:
"The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden."
That was in the same interview as the <25K votes comments</p>
Something is not being reported correctly, because 4% of GA's vote is substantially more than 25k
The 25K and the 18.5K are both from the SoS office so they will be the official numbers presumably.
The SoS gave an interview to a TV station with the 25K number and said they would be done by noon.
Given he is Republican, I think if Trump was behind, they would be scrambling around for any loose votes they could find so, given that and the vote split, that's why I think it will be called for Trump.
His interview on CNN said 40k I thought and then absentee and Military ballots
He did say they would be done by noon on the Mail ins but that Absentees would follow and Military next Tuesday
Scroll down to the comments at 6;20am / 6:31am their time
Thats important info giving the betting
Thanks
Do you think the 25k includes absentee but not Military?
Have to admit I don't know. As mentioned, I don't think he would do a TV interview if the Rs didn't think they can say they have held GA - he would be trying to find extra votes in the outlying counties.
(You're right, it is important betting info but I can't get onto Betfair )
“He would be trying to find extra votes”. The idea of someone with election responsibility thinking like that is so alien.
The big headache here is we don’t know if the estimates are accurate or if the reporting deviates from the count. Those 200k ballots from PA last night might be counted but not be reported yet. It’s bloody hard to tell because of the slapdash way that the US does their elections.
The footage suggests they aren’t even in sports halls.. Amateurs.
In a race this close and with so much hanging on it, even allowing for due process, I find it incredible that no one seems to know if 200.000 votes that have been counted, have or have not been declared, as potentially it could affect the outcome this late on. Surely someone has what should be a simple answer . This 200,000 counted update happened hours ago , its been talked about for ages, Surely someone can confirm declared or not declared.
Positioning himself well for Boris’s post-scindy resignation.
Rather covering up his refusal, until the Overlords in the South of England need it as well, to actually allow the Scots, Welsh, Nirish, Mancs, Geordies, Monkey-hangers, Makems, Yorkshirepersons, etc. etc. to have some.
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger spoke exclusively with Channel 2 Action News This Morning. There are now under 25,000 ballots left to be counted and Raffensperger says the state should be done by noon today.
6:20 a.m.
The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Thanaks Paul, looks like Trump has held on in GA
Too early to say that IMHO. Only thing we can say is as predicted it is going to be incredibly tight.
If it is under 25K votes and 18.5K lead, I don't see how that is overcome.
Plus the SoS is R so I think he is rushing this through
As far as I’m aware, we are not sure yet if the 25k figure is uncounted and unreported (ie all the rest of the ballots have been reported) or whether there are still some other ballots to report.
From the news report:
"The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden."
That was in the same interview as the <25K votes comments</p>
Something is not being reported correctly, because 4% of GA's vote is substantially more than 25k
The 25K and the 18.5K are both from the SoS office so they will be the official numbers presumably.
The SoS gave an interview to a TV station with the 25K number and said they would be done by noon.
Given he is Republican, I think if Trump was behind, they would be scrambling around for any loose votes they could find so, given that and the vote split, that's why I think it will be called for Trump.
His interview on CNN said 40k I thought and then absentee and Military ballots
He did say they would be done by noon on the Mail ins but that Absentees would follow and Military next Tuesday
Scroll down to the comments at 6;20am / 6:31am their time
Thats important info giving the betting
Thanks
Do you think the 25k includes absentee but not Military?
Have to admit I don't know. As mentioned, I don't think he would do a TV interview if the Rs didn't think they can say they have held GA - he would be trying to find extra votes in the outlying counties.
(You're right, it is important betting info but I can't get onto Betfair )
By definition, the £25k must exclude votes that haven't yet been verified and tabulated, no? Let alone those not yet received.
Furlough scheme extended to the end of March next year. Certainly until January this is at the 80% level , to be reviewed then. The financial commitment made in this statement alone probably exceeds the commitments made in any budget in modern times.
Spaffing money up the wall.
You have to wonder what is the point of elections?
The big headache here is we don’t know if the estimates are accurate or if the reporting deviates from the count. Those 200k ballots from PA last night might be counted but not be reported yet. It’s bloody hard to tell because of the slapdash way that the US does their elections.
The footage suggests they aren’t even in sports halls.. Amateurs.
In a race this close and with so much hanging on it, even allowing for due process, I find it incredible that no one seems to know if 200.000 votes that have been counted, have or have not been declared, as potentially it could affect the outcome this late on. Surely someone has what should be a simple answer . This 200,000 counted update happened hours ago , its been talked about for ages, Surely someone can confirm declared or not declared.
As ever with US elections, I’m probably over-simplifying but it makes me grateful for a pencil cross in a box, a simple rule of all postal votes in by the day, and manpower to just count the bloody votes.
Would be fun if Trump hundreds ahead and Military swings it.
I had assumed the military vote is by default heavy Republican. Is that not right?
Looks like there are more than 25K as the absentee ballot file had not been fully updated when the 25K figure was announced, as to how many more there are , estimates on the ground suggest the total o/s is 40-50K rather than 25K, then the military mentioned on top of that. But tbh Trump must be loving all this confusion as it plays fully into his narrative.
The only problem with watching CNN. Having to watch the same irritating Quest Means Business advert. Who is that utter tool?
There aren’t any adverts on their live feed, it just goes quiet if you are watching from abroad. Which is much better than having to listen to all the crap being touted on Fox.
I'm on their web feed. When America goes to an ad break we get trailers for International shows. The same trailers. Over and over and over again.
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger spoke exclusively with Channel 2 Action News This Morning. There are now under 25,000 ballots left to be counted and Raffensperger says the state should be done by noon today.
6:20 a.m.
The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Thanaks Paul, looks like Trump has held on in GA
Too early to say that IMHO. Only thing we can say is as predicted it is going to be incredibly tight.
If it is under 25K votes and 18.5K lead, I don't see how that is overcome.
Plus the SoS is R so I think he is rushing this through
As far as I’m aware, we are not sure yet if the 25k figure is uncounted and unreported (ie all the rest of the ballots have been reported) or whether there are still some other ballots to report.
From the news report:
"The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden."
That was in the same interview as the <25K votes comments</p>
Something is not being reported correctly, because 4% of GA's vote is substantially more than 25k
The 25K and the 18.5K are both from the SoS office so they will be the official numbers presumably.
The SoS gave an interview to a TV station with the 25K number and said they would be done by noon.
Given he is Republican, I think if Trump was behind, they would be scrambling around for any loose votes they could find so, given that and the vote split, that's why I think it will be called for Trump.
His interview on CNN said 40k I thought and then absentee and Military ballots
He did say they would be done by noon on the Mail ins but that Absentees would follow and Military next Tuesday
Scroll down to the comments at 6;20am / 6:31am their time
Thats important info giving the betting
Thanks
Do you think the 25k includes absentee but not Military?
Have to admit I don't know. As mentioned, I don't think he would do a TV interview if the Rs didn't think they can say they have held GA - he would be trying to find extra votes in the outlying counties.
(You're right, it is important betting info but I can't get onto Betfair )
By definition, the £25k must exclude votes that haven't yet been verified and tabulated, no? Let alone those not yet received.
The impression I get is he is looking to call it, hence why I think it will be declared as a Trump win
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger spoke exclusively with Channel 2 Action News This Morning. There are now under 25,000 ballots left to be counted and Raffensperger says the state should be done by noon today.
6:20 a.m.
The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Thanaks Paul, looks like Trump has held on in GA
Too early to say that IMHO. Only thing we can say is as predicted it is going to be incredibly tight.
If it is under 25K votes and 18.5K lead, I don't see how that is overcome.
Plus the SoS is R so I think he is rushing this through
As far as I’m aware, we are not sure yet if the 25k figure is uncounted and unreported (ie all the rest of the ballots have been reported) or whether there are still some other ballots to report.
From the news report:
"The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden."
That was in the same interview as the <25K votes comments</p>
Something is not being reported correctly, because 4% of GA's vote is substantially more than 25k
The 25K and the 18.5K are both from the SoS office so they will be the official numbers presumably.
The SoS gave an interview to a TV station with the 25K number and said they would be done by noon.
Given he is Republican, I think if Trump was behind, they would be scrambling around for any loose votes they could find so, given that and the vote split, that's why I think it will be called for Trump.
His interview on CNN said 40k I thought and then absentee and Military ballots
He did say they would be done by noon on the Mail ins but that Absentees would follow and Military next Tuesday
"Those who cast the votes count for nothing. Those who count the votes count for everything" according to Joe the Georgian.
January sucks as a month and everyone's broke and miserable in January.
If you're going to have lockdown for a month then I would vote for that to be January.
My birthday is in January and pre-children we always had a long weekend away, somewhere cosy in the middle of nowhere with a fire, a good single malt, walking in all weathers, more than once finding our way back by torch-light/map/compass, with the help of a hip-flask, having underestimated how long a walk would take, including one blizzard which completely obliterated the path in the Yorkshire Moors.
So, don't diss January!
January is by far the worst month of the year. Suicides and relationship breakups are most numerous for a reason. Cold and still dark. The cure is to go somewhere where it's better and luckily I'm going to be on holiday in Mexico and the US for it.
Do you have a link for data on suicides by month? The Samaritans report I found had nothing by time of year and the only ONS information I can find is by quarter, and doesn't show a clear pattern - different quarters have higher rates in different years.
There's a reference on Wikipedia to research in the US showing more suicide in spring and early summer - but it's quite old.
By live site are you getting that from electionreturns.pa.gov or from a news live site? Those stating its at 488k say there has been a delay auto updating the other live reporting sites hence they are showing old data.
If that 488k is in Philly and the burbs it's not a worry.
About 300K in Philly and the burbs and 400K elsewhere using the NYT stats.
Furlough scheme extended to the end of March next year. Certainly until January this is at the 80% level , to be reviewed then. The financial commitment made in this statement alone probably exceeds the commitments made in any budget in modern times.
At its peak furlough was about £14bn a month, guess it will be sub £10bn so maybe £40-50bn over six months. HS2 was a bigger commitment alone.
In the last week, Starmer and Dodds have both been entirely vindicated. Politically, though, it is unlikely to matter.
It doesn't matter at all anywhere. They might have said the right thing weeks ago and done the right thing in the HoC but all anyone will care about is that the govt won the votes and Lab supported them.
That is not a good look for an Opposition.
It's better to be right than wrong. Doing the right thing is also important, even if there are no votes in it.
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger spoke exclusively with Channel 2 Action News This Morning. There are now under 25,000 ballots left to be counted and Raffensperger says the state should be done by noon today.
6:20 a.m.
The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Thanaks Paul, looks like Trump has held on in GA
Too early to say that IMHO. Only thing we can say is as predicted it is going to be incredibly tight.
If it is under 25K votes and 18.5K lead, I don't see how that is overcome.
Plus the SoS is R so I think he is rushing this through
As far as I’m aware, we are not sure yet if the 25k figure is uncounted and unreported (ie all the rest of the ballots have been reported) or whether there are still some other ballots to report.
From the news report:
"The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden."
That was in the same interview as the <25K votes comments</p>
Something is not being reported correctly, because 4% of GA's vote is substantially more than 25k
The 25K and the 18.5K are both from the SoS office so they will be the official numbers presumably.
The SoS gave an interview to a TV station with the 25K number and said they would be done by noon.
Given he is Republican, I think if Trump was behind, they would be scrambling around for any loose votes they could find so, given that and the vote split, that's why I think it will be called for Trump.
His interview on CNN said 40k I thought and then absentee and Military ballots
He did say they would be done by noon on the Mail ins but that Absentees would follow and Military next Tuesday
Scroll down to the comments at 6;20am / 6:31am their time
Thats important info giving the betting
Thanks
Do you think the 25k includes absentee but not Military?
Have to admit I don't know. As mentioned, I don't think he would do a TV interview if the Rs didn't think they can say they have held GA - he would be trying to find extra votes in the outlying counties.
(You're right, it is important betting info but I can't get onto Betfair )
By definition, the £25k must exclude votes that haven't yet been verified and tabulated, no? Let alone those not yet received.
The impression I get is he is looking to call it, hence why I think it will be declared as a Trump win
Comments
What a raving nutter....
Biden needs PA or any 2 states remaining (including AZ and NV).
If you think AZ is confirmed as Biden (as Fox does) then he needs any state now, PA or anything else to go with AZ.
He did say they would be done by noon on the Mail ins but that Absentees would follow and Military next Tuesday
My point was not about the Swiss Cheese model, but about the quality of its application to public health communication specific to COVID infection control
What are the rules with military votes in NC ? - it has several significant military bases.
Positioning himself well for Boris’s post-scindy resignation.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1324334248229326849
Hopefully its Trump needing it
https://www.wsbtv.com/news/politics/live-updates-eyes-georgia-state-works-finish-counting-outstanding-ballots/K2PXD7SI3VCDPGNUPMRAV7K5UU/
Scroll down to the comments at 6;20am / 6:31am their time
Telegraph
Habitual, learned behaviour.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_Quest
Thanks
Do you think the 25k includes absentee but not Military?
Margin is currently 0.4% and shrinking so seems inevitable.
https://twitter.com/btsportfootball/status/1324052026595123200
The financial commitment made in this statement alone probably exceeds the commitments made in any budget in modern times.
(You're right, it is important betting info but I can't get onto Betfair
If 25k is the final total 2.92 decent value
How many Military
Would be fun if Trump hundreds ahead and Military swings it.
Despite the reality, this administration ploughs on with Hancock's blinkers firmly fixed on and thousands at risk of early death from non-covid and mental health disasters.
That is not a good look for an Opposition.
Why would we need to do this, only sunny uplands await us?
https://twitter.com/soapmoine/status/1324286193106898944?s=21
Of course there might be disruption as we transition from one set of arrangements to another.
You have to wonder what is the point of elections?
GA is the wildcard - If Biden gets that he doesn’t need 1 of AZ or NV - who knows where it’s at on that front. Hearing different things!
There are always swings and roundabouts to any decision.
There's a reference on Wikipedia to research in the US showing more suicide in spring and early summer - but it's quite old.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/us/georgia-presidential-election.html
https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1324339303028326400