So those show 700k votes left but as mentioned earlier seems like the official site is claiming 488k to go. If its 700k Biden needs to be winning 60% If its 488k he needs to be winning 67-68% to win. As of last night Biden was winning 78% of the mail-in count
@theenglishborn Do you have a link to the Pennsylvania offical site.? Every time I try to go to what I assume the offical site is I get redirected away.
I am afraid not, if it notices you from outside the US it redirects. Maybe try a VPN? I have been going off twitter and reddit screenshots
This is a huge difference, if it's 488k remaining and the overall vote share is as currently on NYTime et.al. then Biden probably still just wins and no more as long as there are no suprises, but it could easily be a loss.
If it's 700 like the supplemental data website says then he walks it.
Very good. I have already copy and pasted it (with the attribution) into my slides on infection control.
Yep - its a well known model for all kinds of things. We use it for lab safety.
Yeah, I already use multiple models of accident causation, including the Swiss Cheese model. All the various models are useful, but each has its limitations.
I was meaning that this graphic is a very good use of that concept specifically for COVID-related measures of infection control.
Imagine if all British people opinions were lumped together as one monolithic block and then did the same with French and said we all have the same view as them. In 2020, weekly strikes and violent riots...we all love 'em in the UK, no?
No deal doesn't mean we have to do checks. You are categorically wrong on this point.
We can agree a deal to avoid checks (though actually most of the checks discussed aren't affected by whether is a deal or not actually). Or we could choose to unilaterally delay or not do checks.
If we choose to unilaterally not do them then that is our choice. That's not a deal. It also means we can change that unilaterally if of when we choose to do so.
That's not saying we can't have babies. It's saying we may choose to have babies in the future but for now we are choosing to use a condom because it suits us to do so for now.
Doing customs checks is a requirement of WTO Rules - which is what "No Deal" means in the context of Brexit. So unless we are not going WTO then we will have to do checks which we cannot do.
What you think is frankly not relevant to reality. Both the UK and EU negotiators know reality which is why the UK is rapidly heading towards a deal. Back in the day you could buy a Toyota Aygo or a Citroen C1 or a Peugeot 107 built on the same line in the same factory. All three were the literal same car - same panels, same chassis, same engine, different badge. We are about to trade in our 2006 C1 and get a 2006 Aygo and claim its a completely different car.
You're wrong again.
Doing customs checks is not a part of WTO Rules.
Not abusing those checks is. But waiving those checks, if that is what we as a sovereign nation choose to do is entirely within the rules.
The WTO is barely different to international law in that it is, as my avatar says, more like guidelines. The WTO sets guidelines in its rules but how countries operate within them is up to them. As a sovereign country how we operate will be up to us not the WTO.
Yes there's the possibility of disputes but they take years or decades to resolve.
We can't selectively waive customs checks, that is against WTO rules. If in our trade deal with the EU it says both sides have agreed to waive customs checks for certain classes of goods then that's fine. In a no deal we either have customs checks for everyone or no one, that means we will have customs checks for EU goods, hence the lorry parks in Kent.
Of course that is right. And the lorry parks are being built.
But if the lorry parks aren't ready yet (which is RochdalePioneers argument) then I am saying we can simply disapply those checks if that is what we choose to do so for six months if that is what we want to do.
The WTO may want checks applied consistently but even if a dispute was raised by a non-EU nation then frankly the WTO process takes years to get through - by the end of that process the lorry parks will be ready.
So the problem that Rochdale thinks is a deal breaker is actually a fiction. If we wanted to we could leave on No Deal on 1/1/21, get the lorry parks up and running by 1/7/21 and say that we will spend three months testing them and the checks come in properly 1/9/21 . . . and if we do that there is nothing the WTO can do about that. No dispute would be settled in that timescale.
Odd to see American-style dates from someone I presumed to be a British poster.
What?
1/1/21 = 1 January 2021 1/7/21 or as I wrote in text "six months" later = 1 July 2021 1/9/21 or as I wrote in text "three months" later = 1 September 2021 [this was a brainfart, of course three months later is 1/10/21]
How is that American? American style would have been 1/1/21, 7/1/21 and 9/1/21 respectively.
Unless you thought I was suggesting we disapply the checks for a grand total of 9 days and not 9 months.
You're right. Too early in the morning here on too little sleep, the brain was autocorrecting and then ...
Philly has 70% in but all the other counties with 70-80% counted are all Republican and all bar one strongholds. They total 357K votes so far vs Philly's 576K. Taking a 77% average, that means there are over 100K votes left here in mainly Republican strongholds
Then go down to the 80-90% block in. Republican counties at 651K vs Democrat counties at 1.03m. Caveats on both sides - there are more counties with lower R leads but also the three big D counties have much lower leads than Philly.
Then let's do the 90-95% block. All are Republican and total 735K votes. All sit within the 93-95% count range and some are not strongholds but a few are. If you take an average of 94%, that means there are 47K votes out there, which potentially could be critical.
If you then look at all the other counties that are below the "greater than 98%", all bar one are Republican and they are all strongly Republican. Roughly they have 910K votes counted so far for the R counties vs 492K for the D (Montgomery). Trump might be able to eek out another 15-20K votes advantage from there.
One critical point - some of these counties (and they were Republican) started ALL counting late, not just postal ballots so it is likely their splits to come are not as D-friendly as you would think.
Philly has 70% in but all the other counties with 70-80% counted are all Republican and all bar one strongholds. They total 357K votes so far vs Philly's 576K. Taking a 77% average, that means there are over 100K votes left here in mainly Republican strongholds
Then go down to the 80-90% block in. Republican counties at 651K vs Democrat counties at 1.03m. Caveats on both sides - there are more counties with lower R leads but also the three big D counties have much lower leads than Philly.
Then let's do the 90-95% block. All are Republican and total 735K votes. All sit within the 93-95% count range and some are not strongholds but a few are. If you take an average of 94%, that means there are 47K votes out there, which potentially could be critical.
If you then look at all the other counties that are below the "greater than 98%", all bar one are Republican and they are all strongly Republican. Roughly they have 910K votes counted so far for the R counties vs 492K for the D (Montgomery). Trump might be able to eek out another 15-20K votes advantage from there.
One critical point - some of these counties (and they were Republican) started ALL counting late, not just postal ballots so it is likely their splits to come are not as D-friendly as you would think.
DYOR
Just one extra bit to add: in the 80-90% range, Allegheny is 89% in so I reckon in that band, the Democrat counties have c. 155K votes to come and the Rs 125K
You are misreading what is happening. Almost all on the day vote has been counted (Clarion still has a lot to count). The remaining percentage figures the NY Times is reporting is all mail ballot. Mail ballots split Trump no matter how red the county.
There is no Trump advantage to any county still to count mail ballots, the only question is how big Biden's lead is in each counties VBM figure.
Ok, let's do the Maths. I have taken all areas that have reported 95% or less. That gets me to 677K votes so i'm not sure what number is being assumed but there will be other counties obviously out there with 95%+ votes that accumulate.
I have split the remaining votes to come into three piles - Philly, other D counties and Republican counties.
I get Philly to come based on the NYT at 244K, the other D counties around 155K and the Republican counties at c. 278K.
I then split VBMs 80/20 for Philly, two thirds for the other D counties and 50/50 for the R counties (many of these are strongholds, some are not).
That gets me to 438K Dem votes 239K Reps so 199K Dem vote advantage. Trump's lead is 164K so 35K would be Biden's lead but you then have to add all the extra votes from counties at 95%+ and where the Republicans have an advantage and many of which are strongholds. You also mentioned Clarion which will eat into Biden's lead by a few thousands.
So, yes Biden, may do it but it is not the slam dunk you say it is
IT IS NOT 50/50 IN R COUNTIES!!!!
Look Snyder County. Voted 72/24 For Trump in 2016 and 75/24 for Trump in 2020.
The mail ballots split 60/40 in Biden's favour.
The Mail Ballots will not be 80/20 in Philly. They were 85/12 in Delaware and Philly is VASTLY MORE Democrat than Delaware. It is not 66/33 in other Dem Counties.
Good news. Paying people not to work because you've shut them down is cheaper than paying for the consequences of putting them all out of work. Does someone want to have a word with Sainsbury's John Lewis etc and tell them they don't need to sack all their workers?
Sainsburys, at least, is just following the previous market situation. Argos is rapidly becoming an online business, with Sainsburys hosting pickup points.....
Once again, COVID is accelerating existing trends,
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger spoke exclusively with Channel 2 Action News This Morning. There are now under 25,000 ballots left to be counted and Raffensperger says the state should be done by noon today.
6:20 a.m.
The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Good news. Paying people not to work because you've shut them down is cheaper than paying for the consequences of putting them all out of work. Does someone want to have a word with Sainsbury's John Lewis etc and tell them they don't need to sack all their workers?
Sainsburys, at least, is just following the previous market situation. Argos is rapidly becoming an online business, with Sainsburys hosting pickup points.....
Once again, COVID is accelerating existing trends,
Waitrose must be loving the news that Sainsbury are closing all their deli, fish and meat counters.
January sucks as a month and everyone's broke and miserable in January.
If you're going to have lockdown for a month then I would vote for that to be January.
My birthday is in January and pre-children we always had a long weekend away, somewhere cosy in the middle of nowhere with a fire, a good single malt, walking in all weathers, more than once finding our way back by torch-light/map/compass, with the help of a hip-flask, having underestimated how long a walk would take, including one blizzard which completely obliterated the path in the Yorkshire Moors.
So, don't diss January!
January is by far the worst month of the year. Suicides and relationship breakups are most numerous for a reason. Cold and still dark. The cure is to go somewhere where it's better and luckily I'm going to be on holiday in Mexico and the US for it.
If we waive our right to do checks and let all traffic pass then what has changed is that we will no longer be paying the EU to be in their market nor will we be obliged to follow their rules.
Just because we can do checks doesn't mean we have to do them.
We don't want a closed border, nobody is saying deal or no deal that we will have a closed border.
We're broadly in agreement. Every border in the world has checks when standards and customs arrangements differ on either side - you and I both know that.
We will leave the border open and maintain our rules and our standards. The good news is that our rules and standards are the same as the EU rules and standards. As we go forward in parallel - adjacent but not connected - we will find that market efficiencies mean that we mutually agree to improvements in those rules and standards.
They won't be forcing us. It will be our choice to remain adjacent to our largest market. Sovereignty. We won't be forced to have free movement or alignment on EURATOM or EUROPOL or anything else. We will choose to maintain these arrangements because they are mutually beneficial.
We will choose to impose much tougher immigration rules allowing us to deport EU nationals unable to show they can support themselves if they try to stay longer than 90 days. And as we realise the economic benefits of maintaining frictionless trade and freedom from red tape we will choose to make payments into the free trade area - not EU payments. UKEA FTA payments. Because its in our interest to do so.
That is our deal. Not the EEA and CU. A clone of them.
I have to say Trump's idiotic postal voting crusade looks even more stupid now. How many voters has he lost in swing states because they stayed home on election day or were unable to vote in person but they didn't trust the postal vote system enough to vote? Could have cost him PA, WI and NV.
Presumably he did so because he thinks it could help him win it in the courts post election. It still might.
Yes, the intention was to generate precisely his narrative now. I didn't really lose. It was stolen from me by Democrat mail fraud. It won't work legally - it's "frivolous" as the lawyers say - but it will work with much of his base and that is very important to him. They have to think of him as a winner. It's a big part of the brand they've bought into.
"Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger spoke exclusively with Channel 2 Action News This Morning. There are now under 25,000 ballots left to be counted and Raffensperger says the state should be done by noon today."
Latest from 538 about the timetable: "While we aren’t expecting to get our next update from Maricopa County in Arizona until 9 p.m. tonight, Georgia is expected to finish counting its remaining 25,000 ballots today. Elsewhere, Nevada will announce more results starting at noon Eastern, and we continue to get results at a steady pace in Pennsylvania — which may be Biden’s best chance to end this race."
Have just put CNN on. They've basically been doing the same programme for 48 hours now. Amazing stuff, but it does baffle me how the American electoral system is so slow
It wouldn't if you'd dealt with American state bureaucracies a lot - often Italian or Romanian levels of efficiency and politicisation.
‘The only pollster who comes out of this with any credit is that lady in Iowa who got the state result very close IMHO. The other polls were both fairly off, one way or the other. They got some contests a bit closer than others but none can claim any credit for being close everywhere.’
As I understand it, and correct me where I’m wrong, Ann Selzer the Queen of Polling.
Her November poll, very much for Trump, was out of step with the pro Biden polling, but proved more accurate.
However it was very different than her more favourable Biden poll the month before.
So was the October poll wildly wrong, or did something actually change during the two polls, she picked up other pollsters didn’t?
Would we have greater trust in polling if it moves a lot month to month? Which it doesn’t tend to do? But polls aren’t simply measuring switching, at certain times people may be more likely to come off a fence with an opinion?
It's an interesting question. Looking at Selzer's methods (and though this description is taken from the caucuses polls, the same principle applies), it's possible that the proximity to the election saw a lot more occasional voters turning up ? Which would suggests that Trump's campaigning had a real effect. https://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/ann-selzer-iowa-pollster-216151 ...“There’s no repository of all the email addresses that are out there,” she said. “Some have three, some have 13, so there’s no way that you can ensure that every person has an equal chance to be contacted. And then in the end you’re dealing with volunteers.”
But it’s also how she obtains the pool of voters from which she randomly selects her sample that differs from other public, telephone pollsters. It’s a major conundrum for many pollsters — how to reflect a low-participation electorate in a presidential caucus. Only 121,000 people participated in the GOP caucuses in 2012 — fewer than 6 percent of the total number of registered voters, and fewer than one-in-five registered Republicans, in the state.
Some pollsters, like the CNN/ORC poll to which Trump referred, randomly call Iowa phone numbers and ask respondents if they’re registered to vote and whether they intend to go to a caucus site. Others, like Monmouth University, have used a tighter screen — only calling those voters who participated in recent primary elections. (Though Monmouth recently expanded its screen to include a minority of people who haven’t participated in past nominating contests.)
Selzer views the CNN poll as too broad, and the Monmouth method — which is shared by some political campaigns — as a methodological shortcut. Calling only or mostly frequent primary voters is too restrictive, Selzer warns, and compromises the sample in order to cut costs, since pollsters are calling only people who have demonstrated past voting behavior.
“Caucuses are a low-incidence event,” Selzer explained. “So if you start with a narrower universe, where the incidence is higher proportionately [among] people who’ve voted in Republican primaries before, your incidence is going to go up to 25, 30, maybe 40 percent. You’re hanging up on fewer people. It’s cheaper to do.”
Selzer, however, uses a list of all registered voters, but she lets those voters tell her whether they intend to caucus...
So those show 700k votes left but as mentioned earlier seems like the official site is claiming 488k to go. If its 700k Biden needs to be winning 60% If its 488k he needs to be winning 67-68% to win. As of last night Biden was winning 78% of the mail-in count
@theenglishborn Do you have a link to the Pennsylvania offical site.? Every time I try to go to what I assume the offical site is I get redirected away.
I am afraid not, if it notices you from outside the US it redirects. Maybe try a VPN? I have been going off twitter and reddit screenshots
This is a huge difference, if it's 488k remaining and the overall vote share is as currently on NYTime et.al. then Biden probably still just wins and no more as long as there are no suprises, but it could easily be a loss.
If it's 700 like the supplemental data website says then he walks it.
What I have been struggling to find out is what has happened to the 200k votes, I don't know if they have been reported, or as some are suggesting counted but not yet reported and added to the total.
I have to say Trump's idiotic postal voting crusade looks even more stupid now. How many voters has he lost in swing states because they stayed home on election day or were unable to vote in person but they didn't trust the postal vote system enough to vote? Could have cost him PA, WI and NV.
Presumably he did so because he thinks it could help him win it in the courts post election. It still might.
Yes, the intention was to generate precisely his narrative now. I didn't really lose. It was stolen from me by Democrat mail fraud. It won't work legally - it's "frivolous" as the lawyers say - but it will work with much of his base and that is very important to him. They have to think of him as a winner. It's a big part of the brand they've bought into.
I wish I had your confidence in the courts! To be fair their election officials seem pretty robust in the face of interference (even if they have ridiculous rules and processes).
No deal doesn't mean we have to do checks. You are categorically wrong on this point.
We can agree a deal to avoid checks (though actually most of the checks discussed aren't affected by whether is a deal or not actually). Or we could choose to unilaterally delay or not do checks.
If we choose to unilaterally not do them then that is our choice. That's not a deal. It also means we can change that unilaterally if of when we choose to do so.
That's not saying we can't have babies. It's saying we may choose to have babies in the future but for now we are choosing to use a condom because it suits us to do so for now.
Doing customs checks is a requirement of WTO Rules - which is what "No Deal" means in the context of Brexit. So unless we are not going WTO then we will have to do checks which we cannot do.
What you think is frankly not relevant to reality. Both the UK and EU negotiators know reality which is why the UK is rapidly heading towards a deal. Back in the day you could buy a Toyota Aygo or a Citroen C1 or a Peugeot 107 built on the same line in the same factory. All three were the literal same car - same panels, same chassis, same engine, different badge. We are about to trade in our 2006 C1 and get a 2006 Aygo and claim its a completely different car.
You're wrong again.
Doing customs checks is not a part of WTO Rules.
Not abusing those checks is. But waiving those checks, if that is what we as a sovereign nation choose to do is entirely within the rules.
The WTO is barely different to international law in that it is, as my avatar says, more like guidelines. The WTO sets guidelines in its rules but how countries operate within them is up to them. As a sovereign country how we operate will be up to us not the WTO.
Yes there's the possibility of disputes but they take years or decades to resolve.
We can't selectively waive customs checks, that is against WTO rules. If in our trade deal with the EU it says both sides have agreed to waive customs checks for certain classes of goods then that's fine. In a no deal we either have customs checks for everyone or no one, that means we will have customs checks for EU goods, hence the lorry parks in Kent.
Of course that is right. And the lorry parks are being built.
But if the lorry parks aren't ready yet (which is RochdalePioneers argument) then I am saying we can simply disapply those checks if that is what we choose to do so for six months if that is what we want to do.
The WTO may want checks applied consistently but even if a dispute was raised by a non-EU nation then frankly the WTO process takes years to get through - by the end of that process the lorry parks will be ready.
So the problem that Rochdale thinks is a deal breaker is actually a fiction. If we wanted to we could leave on No Deal on 1/1/21, get the lorry parks up and running by 1/7/21 and say that we will spend three months testing them and the checks come in properly 1/9/21 . . . and if we do that there is nothing the WTO can do about that. No dispute would be settled in that timescale.
Odd to see American-style dates from someone I presumed to be a British poster.
What?
1/1/21 = 1 January 2021 1/7/21 or as I wrote in text "six months" later = 1 July 2021 1/9/21 or as I wrote in text "three months" later = 1 September 2021 [this was a brainfart, of course three months later is 1/10/21]
How is that American? American style would have been 1/1/21, 7/1/21 and 9/1/21 respectively.
Unless you thought I was suggesting we disapply the checks for a grand total of 9 days and not 9 months.
You're right. Too early in the morning here on too little sleep, the brain was autocorrecting and then ...
Apologies.
No worries. The American dating system (m/d/y) is weird and illogical but actually I do think month then date does make sense to do. If you're writing a table of dates it is easier to read it after with the date varying first on the right before the month does.
If it was up to me the dating and time system would be y/d/m h:m:s - that would be entirely consistent and more sensible.
If I'm creating daily spreadsheets I tend to create them in a month folder within a year folder so that it is literally y/m/d.xlsx and if I have multiple files in the same folder then I will name them eg "Jan 30.xlsx" not "30 Jan.xlsx" because the computer shows that up smarter.
Latest from 538 about the timetable: "While we aren’t expecting to get our next update from Maricopa County in Arizona until 9 p.m. tonight, Georgia is expected to finish counting its remaining 25,000 ballots today. Elsewhere, Nevada will announce more results starting at noon Eastern, and we continue to get results at a steady pace in Pennsylvania — which may be Biden’s best chance to end this race."
If there are only 25,000 left in Georgia, then Biden needs to win 88%.
Dodds does not thank Sunak for advance sight of his statement - did she not get it, or did she forget to?
I think if she hadn't seen it she would have made a meal of that, she is too busy making political points rather than providing constructive opposition.
"Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger spoke exclusively with Channel 2 Action News This Morning. There are now under 25,000 ballots left to be counted and Raffensperger says the state should be done by noon today."
This looks like Trump will squeak it
I should say so, if it's really only 0.5% still to come rather than 4% as others are showing!
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger spoke exclusively with Channel 2 Action News This Morning. There are now under 25,000 ballots left to be counted and Raffensperger says the state should be done by noon today.
6:20 a.m.
The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Looks like I may add Georgia to my list of hits. I think Biden nabs it by 10K give or take.
Depending on when PA starts rolling in, estimates around 3-5 GMT, we will have Biden called as President Elect by afternoon tea. Very civilised .... More tea Vicar ?
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger spoke exclusively with Channel 2 Action News This Morning. There are now under 25,000 ballots left to be counted and Raffensperger says the state should be done by noon today.
6:20 a.m.
The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Thanaks Paul, looks like Trump has held on in GA
Too early to say that IMHO. Only thing we can say is as predicted it is going to be incredibly tight.
Looks like I may add Georgia to my list of hits. I think Biden nabs it by 10K give or take.
Depending on when PA starts rolling in, estimates around 3-5 GMT, we will have Biden called as President Elect by afternoon tea. Very civilised .... More tea Vicar ?
Not too early @JackW - did you see the comments by their SoS?
I know she's in the Opposition but does Anneliese Dodds have anything positive to offer?
Good job she will never be Chancellor
She has literally just had her policy implemented after months of the Tories refusal to come up with a viable alternative and 2 failed attempts at schemes that wouldnt work for Business or EEs
Do you have the link @paulyork64 for ABC? Agree it looks odd.
The New York Times site gives you the live numbers. 4.9million in with 96% counted.
interested in why ABC saying what it is
The thing about all these conflicting figures, such as in GA and PA of remaining ballots is EXACTLY the kind of thing Trump will jump on. Misinformation, confusion are his tools right now. This is why no matter how well or correctly the postal votes are counted, Trump will be able to run and run with this sadly.
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger spoke exclusively with Channel 2 Action News This Morning. There are now under 25,000 ballots left to be counted and Raffensperger says the state should be done by noon today.
6:20 a.m.
The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Thanaks Paul, looks like Trump has held on in GA
Too early to say that IMHO. Only thing we can say is as predicted it is going to be incredibly tight.
someone mentioned absentee and military votes could be in addition to the 25k?
In Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada, pivotal states that have yet to be called, absentee ballots from military and overseas voters can arrive until next week, while such ballots can arrive in uncalled Georgia until Friday.
In 2016, military voters cast 5,203 absentee ballots in Georgia, according to the Election Assistance Commission. That means, Noland said, “if the race comes down to the wire, those ballots could make a difference.”
Do you have the link @paulyork64 for ABC? Agree it looks odd.
The New York Times site gives you the live numbers. 4.9million in with 96% counted.
interested in why ABC saying what it is
The thing about all these conflicting figures, such as in GA and PA of remaining ballots is EXACTLY the kind of thing Trump will jump on. Misinformation, confusion are his tools right now. This is why no matter how well or correctly the postal votes are counted, Trump will be able to run and run with this sadly.
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger spoke exclusively with Channel 2 Action News This Morning. There are now under 25,000 ballots left to be counted and Raffensperger says the state should be done by noon today.
6:20 a.m.
The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Thanaks Paul, looks like Trump has held on in GA
Too early to say that IMHO. Only thing we can say is as predicted it is going to be incredibly tight.
If it is under 25K votes and 18.5K lead, I don't see how that is overcome.
Plus the SoS is R so I think he is rushing this through
In Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada, pivotal states that have yet to be called, absentee ballots from military and overseas voters can arrive until next week, while such ballots can arrive in uncalled Georgia until Friday.
In 2016, military voters cast 5,203 absentee ballots in Georgia, according to the Election Assistance Commission. That means, Noland said, “if the race comes down to the wire, those ballots could make a difference.”
But presumably the vast majority of the military ballots will have already arrived and been counted?
In Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada, pivotal states that have yet to be called, absentee ballots from military and overseas voters can arrive until next week, while such ballots can arrive in uncalled Georgia until Friday.
In 2016, military voters cast 5,203 absentee ballots in Georgia, according to the Election Assistance Commission. That means, Noland said, “if the race comes down to the wire, those ballots could make a difference.”
But presumably the vast majority of the military ballots will have already arrived and been counted?
In Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada, pivotal states that have yet to be called, absentee ballots from military and overseas voters can arrive until next week, while such ballots can arrive in uncalled Georgia until Friday.
In 2016, military voters cast 5,203 absentee ballots in Georgia, according to the Election Assistance Commission. That means, Noland said, “if the race comes down to the wire, those ballots could make a difference.”
But presumably the vast majority of the military ballots will have already arrived and been counted?
Do they have to be post-marked by date?
No idea, sorry. I imagine the military has its own system for getting ballots in,
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger spoke exclusively with Channel 2 Action News This Morning. There are now under 25,000 ballots left to be counted and Raffensperger says the state should be done by noon today.
6:20 a.m.
The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Thanaks Paul, looks like Trump has held on in GA
Too early to say that IMHO. Only thing we can say is as predicted it is going to be incredibly tight.
If it is under 25K votes and 18.5K lead, I don't see how that is overcome.
Plus the SoS is R so I think he is rushing this through
As far as I’m aware, we are not sure yet if the 25k figure is uncounted and unreported (ie all the rest of the ballots have been reported) or whether there are still some other ballots to report.
I`ve not been following the Senate race at all. Can someone please summarise where we are? GOP still hold the Senate yes?
The Republicans have held 49 Senate seats for certain.
North Carolina remains to be declared, but is thought a probable Republican hold. Both Georgia Senate seats will go to a run off, but the Republicans will be favourites, given that their overall vote share in Senate contests exceeds that of the Democrats.
There'll be a combo of factors in the GA runoff(s ?)
i) Motivated Dem base that want to get control of the senate ii) Middle ground voters that want split Gov't. iii) Demotivated MAGA that won't come out.
I don't think group (ii) is actually that big. So the Dems could win it.
(iv) massive outside money (although that does not seem to have helped the Dems this time around in other states, like NC ,SC, KY, ME)
Yes - one of the stories of this election is that there does seem to be significant diminishing returns to campaign expenditure. Witness Bloomberg's wasted millions in FL.
Money without grassroots is like a hosepipe on desert sand ?
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger spoke exclusively with Channel 2 Action News This Morning. There are now under 25,000 ballots left to be counted and Raffensperger says the state should be done by noon today.
6:20 a.m.
The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Thanaks Paul, looks like Trump has held on in GA
Too early to say that IMHO. Only thing we can say is as predicted it is going to be incredibly tight.
If it is under 25K votes and 18.5K lead, I don't see how that is overcome.
Plus the SoS is R so I think he is rushing this through
As far as I’m aware, we are not sure yet if the 25k figure is uncounted and unreported (ie all the rest of the ballots have been reported) or whether there are still some other ballots to report.
From the news report:
"The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden."
So those show 700k votes left but as mentioned earlier seems like the official site is claiming 488k to go. If its 700k Biden needs to be winning 60% If its 488k he needs to be winning 67-68% to win. As of last night Biden was winning 78% of the mail-in count
@theenglishborn Do you have a link to the Pennsylvania offical site.? Every time I try to go to what I assume the offical site is I get redirected away.
I am afraid not, if it notices you from outside the US it redirects. Maybe try a VPN? I have been going off twitter and reddit screenshots
This is a huge difference, if it's 488k remaining and the overall vote share is as currently on NYTime et.al. then Biden probably still just wins and no more as long as there are no suprises, but it could easily be a loss.
If it's 700 like the supplemental data website says then he walks it.
What I have been struggling to find out is what has happened to the 200k votes, I don't know if they have been reported, or as some are suggesting counted but not yet reported and added to the total.
I lost total faith in the NY tmes site when they were quoting one of the states yesterday (GA or AZ I think) as 98% reported when the reality was 88%. I tend to follow that the state reps or even those in charge of the ballot counting centres say in regards whats left, not media centres. I suspect the 400,000 figure in PA is wrong and that GA is also down to the 20K or so votes left quoted by the GA rep which suggests GA staying with Trump and PA very close, but we will see
Do you have the link @paulyork64 for ABC? Agree it looks odd.
The New York Times site gives you the live numbers. 4.9million in with 96% counted.
interested in why ABC saying what it is
Ratings.
i think the ABC i quoted is the australian one. i was just looking for sites with most recent news updates and their's was 6 mins old. it did have the gap correctly at 18k but didnt give a source for their 10k claim.
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger spoke exclusively with Channel 2 Action News This Morning. There are now under 25,000 ballots left to be counted and Raffensperger says the state should be done by noon today.
6:20 a.m.
The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Thanaks Paul, looks like Trump has held on in GA
Too early to say that IMHO. Only thing we can say is as predicted it is going to be incredibly tight.
If it is under 25K votes and 18.5K lead, I don't see how that is overcome.
Plus the SoS is R so I think he is rushing this through
As far as I’m aware, we are not sure yet if the 25k figure is uncounted and unreported (ie all the rest of the ballots have been reported) or whether there are still some other ballots to report.
From the news report:
"The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden."
That was in the same interview as the <25K votes comments
Philly has 70% in but all the other counties with 70-80% counted are all Republican and all bar one strongholds. They total 357K votes so far vs Philly's 576K. Taking a 77% average, that means there are over 100K votes left here in mainly Republican strongholds
Then go down to the 80-90% block in. Republican counties at 651K vs Democrat counties at 1.03m. Caveats on both sides - there are more counties with lower R leads but also the three big D counties have much lower leads than Philly.
Then let's do the 90-95% block. All are Republican and total 735K votes. All sit within the 93-95% count range and some are not strongholds but a few are. If you take an average of 94%, that means there are 47K votes out there, which potentially could be critical.
If you then look at all the other counties that are below the "greater than 98%", all bar one are Republican and they are all strongly Republican. Roughly they have 910K votes counted so far for the R counties vs 492K for the D (Montgomery). Trump might be able to eek out another 15-20K votes advantage from there.
One critical point - some of these counties (and they were Republican) started ALL counting late, not just postal ballots so it is likely their splits to come are not as D-friendly as you would think.
DYOR
I've modelled Penn by county. You have a point.
Up rating each county to 100% in proportion to current count gives Trump a final lead of 120K. The net Biden benefit from the Philly count is offset from the net Trump benefit from the Trump counties.
Using the other method of allocating the remaining votes to be counted in proportion to the mail-in proportions for Biden/Trump gives Biden a lead of 237K.
Quite a difference! The county method ignores the mail-in/in-person split so favours Trump. The other method ignores the county makeup of the remaining votes and favours Biden.
Taking a crude average of the two methods gives Biden a lead of 57K.
I have to say the bigger news for me is coming from the House. Could end up as around 212 GOP - 224 Dem, which is a big narrowing in the majority and quite a few of those Dem seats are in red states which will be vulnerable in 2022. Biden is going to have a real uphill battle to get any budget measures passed and make any significant changes to how America thinks about money.
In Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada, pivotal states that have yet to be called, absentee ballots from military and overseas voters can arrive until next week, while such ballots can arrive in uncalled Georgia until Friday.
In 2016, military voters cast 5,203 absentee ballots in Georgia, according to the Election Assistance Commission. That means, Noland said, “if the race comes down to the wire, those ballots could make a difference.”
Rishi is very articulate and comes over confidently
But comes up with unworkable alternatives to Furlough and has to keep doing U Turns when it turns out they wont work. Lab asked for Furlough to 31/3/21
Richi has adopted Labours policy after calling it irresponsible and unaffordable.
By live site are you getting that from electionreturns.pa.gov or from a news live site? Those stating its at 488k say there has been a delay auto updating the other live reporting sites hence they are showing old data.
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger spoke exclusively with Channel 2 Action News This Morning. There are now under 25,000 ballots left to be counted and Raffensperger says the state should be done by noon today.
6:20 a.m.
The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Thanaks Paul, looks like Trump has held on in GA
Too early to say that IMHO. Only thing we can say is as predicted it is going to be incredibly tight.
If it is under 25K votes and 18.5K lead, I don't see how that is overcome.
Plus the SoS is R so I think he is rushing this through
As far as I’m aware, we are not sure yet if the 25k figure is uncounted and unreported (ie all the rest of the ballots have been reported) or whether there are still some other ballots to report.
From the news report:
"The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden."
That was in the same interview as the <25K votes comments</p>
Something is not being reported correctly, because 4% of GA's vote is substantially more than 25k
About 1.5%, showing how tight it is between Republicans and Democrats in those three crucial States.
If there ARE 700K + votes left in PA 100K is a minimum figure for me but good enough. Can I ask where exactly are some posters getting this 480K or something lower figure left in PA from? I've only seen the higher figure. Was it the PA SoS gave the lower figure? If so thats worrying
In Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada, pivotal states that have yet to be called, absentee ballots from military and overseas voters can arrive until next week, while such ballots can arrive in uncalled Georgia until Friday.
In 2016, military voters cast 5,203 absentee ballots in Georgia, according to the Election Assistance Commission. That means, Noland said, “if the race comes down to the wire, those ballots could make a difference.”
So the Military could throw Trump out the WH
according to this the serving military split 50-45 clinton over trump so maybe not a game changer even if there are a few to count.
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger spoke exclusively with Channel 2 Action News This Morning. There are now under 25,000 ballots left to be counted and Raffensperger says the state should be done by noon today.
6:20 a.m.
The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Thanaks Paul, looks like Trump has held on in GA
Too early to say that IMHO. Only thing we can say is as predicted it is going to be incredibly tight.
If it is under 25K votes and 18.5K lead, I don't see how that is overcome.
Plus the SoS is R so I think he is rushing this through
As far as I’m aware, we are not sure yet if the 25k figure is uncounted and unreported (ie all the rest of the ballots have been reported) or whether there are still some other ballots to report.
From the news report:
"The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden."
That was in the same interview as the <25K votes comments</p>
Something is not being reported correctly, because 4% of GA's vote is substantially more than 25k
4% is about 220,000, but I'd understood that the number of outstanding votes was well below that figure by now, although I did not think it was as low as 25,000.
January sucks as a month and everyone's broke and miserable in January.
If you're going to have lockdown for a month then I would vote for that to be January.
My birthday is in January and pre-children we always had a long weekend away, somewhere cosy in the middle of nowhere with a fire, a good single malt, walking in all weathers, more than once finding our way back by torch-light/map/compass, with the help of a hip-flask, having underestimated how long a walk would take, including one blizzard which completely obliterated the path in the Yorkshire Moors.
So, don't diss January!
January is by far the worst month of the year. Suicides and relationship breakups are most numerous for a reason. Cold and still dark. The cure is to go somewhere where it's better and luckily I'm going to be on holiday in Mexico and the US for it.
I always find November and early December the worst. The nights are still getting darker, the weather is generally damp, and you don't get many cold frosty days. Christmas hovers on the horizon looking menacing.
January has more snow, the nights are getting lighter and it will soon be Spring. February is often a good month weather wise.
By live site are you getting that from electionreturns.pa.gov or from a news live site? Those stating its at 488k say there has been a delay auto updating the other live reporting sites hence they are showing old data.
If that's true that's very poor, with something like tihs, those quoting figures should be using up to date ones, This talk of lower numbers has been out for a lot of hours
By live site are you getting that from electionreturns.pa.gov or from a news live site? Those stating its at 488k say there has been a delay auto updating the other live reporting sites hence they are showing old data.
If that 488k is in Philly and the burbs it's not a worry.
About 1.5%, showing how tight it is between Republicans and Democrats in those three crucial States.
If there ARE 700K + votes left in PA 100K is a minimum figure for me but good enough. Can I ask where exactly are some posters getting this 480K or something lower figure left in PA from? I've only seen the higher figure. Was it the PA SoS gave the lower figure? If so thats worrying
Is one example of people seeing the figure on electionreturns.pa.gov
It should be said if the count is delayed then reporting the results also might be delayed. So going off 488k with the current margin might not give true figures.
I`ve not been following the Senate race at all. Can someone please summarise where we are? GOP still hold the Senate yes?
Yes and the Dems also lost some house seats, though still hold it ofc. So in some ways not a bad night for Rs after all and much to look forward to I think
If the GOP holds the Senate, gets close in the House, and loses Donald Trump, that would indeed be an excellent night for the party ...
Or it could foretell they will be out of the White House for a generation, as happened in 1980 when Carter was the last President to lose office after only 1 term of his party in the White House
A generation?
But America doesn't vote for the Presidency after six years.
I think HY is right, 68 to 92 punctuated by just 4 Carter years is a long time.
Rick Perlstein's excellent series of books, of which Nixonland is the second, describes the period brilliantly. The latest, Reaganland is available in the UK later this month.
So CNN have just spoken live to one of the Dem Senators in PA who has confi9rmed there are just over 400,000 votes left to be counted statewide (so not 700,00) I would assume he wold know. So clearly PA is not a done deal after all
Not paying attention to the election today - too much to do in the beautiful sunshine in the garden. Is Trump still playing the turd that refuses to flush?
Do you have the link @paulyork64 for ABC? Agree it looks odd.
The New York Times site gives you the live numbers. 4.9million in with 96% counted.
Yes, but the 96% is just an estimate. The uncounted votes are just that - uncounted. So they don’t know precisely how many of them there are.
Er, surely they know exacty how many votes there are. I've been to dozens of UK counts as there is a verification stage which I always thought included how many total votes there are.
Looks like I may add Georgia to my list of hits. I think Biden nabs it by 10K give or take.
Depending on when PA starts rolling in, estimates around 3-5 GMT, we will have Biden called as President Elect by afternoon tea. Very civilised .... More tea Vicar ?
Not too early @JackW - did you see the comments by their SoS?
No. I've been supervising the Auchentennach Fine Pies Takeaway Emporium.
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger spoke exclusively with Channel 2 Action News This Morning. There are now under 25,000 ballots left to be counted and Raffensperger says the state should be done by noon today.
6:20 a.m.
The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Thanaks Paul, looks like Trump has held on in GA
Too early to say that IMHO. Only thing we can say is as predicted it is going to be incredibly tight.
If it is under 25K votes and 18.5K lead, I don't see how that is overcome.
Plus the SoS is R so I think he is rushing this through
As far as I’m aware, we are not sure yet if the 25k figure is uncounted and unreported (ie all the rest of the ballots have been reported) or whether there are still some other ballots to report.
From the news report:
"The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden."
That was in the same interview as the <25K votes comments</p>
Something is not being reported correctly, because 4% of GA's vote is substantially more than 25k
4% is about 220,000, but I'd understood that the number of outstanding votes was well below that figure by now, although I did not think it was as low as 25,000.
Do you have the link @paulyork64 for ABC? Agree it looks odd.
The New York Times site gives you the live numbers. 4.9million in with 96% counted.
Yes, but the 96% is just an estimate. The uncounted votes are just that - uncounted. So they don’t know precisely how many of them there are.
Er, surely they know exacty how many votes there are. I've been to dozens of UK counts as there is a verification stage which I always thought included how many total votes there are.
We verify first, they don't. So no they won't know how many votes there are.
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger spoke exclusively with Channel 2 Action News This Morning. There are now under 25,000 ballots left to be counted and Raffensperger says the state should be done by noon today.
6:20 a.m.
The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
Thanaks Paul, looks like Trump has held on in GA
Too early to say that IMHO. Only thing we can say is as predicted it is going to be incredibly tight.
If it is under 25K votes and 18.5K lead, I don't see how that is overcome.
Plus the SoS is R so I think he is rushing this through
As far as I’m aware, we are not sure yet if the 25k figure is uncounted and unreported (ie all the rest of the ballots have been reported) or whether there are still some other ballots to report.
From the news report:
"The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden."
That was in the same interview as the <25K votes comments</p>
Something is not being reported correctly, because 4% of GA's vote is substantially more than 25k
The 25K and the 18.5K are both from the SoS office so they will be the official numbers presumably.
The SoS gave an interview to a TV station with the 25K number and said they would be done by noon.
Given he is Republican, I think if Trump was behind, they would be scrambling around for any loose votes they could find so, given that and the vote split, that's why I think it will be called for Trump.
Very good. I have already copy and pasted it (with the attribution) into my slides on infection control.
Yep - its a well known model for all kinds of things. We use it for lab safety.
Yeah, I already use multiple models of accident causation, including the Swiss Cheese model. All the various models are useful, but each has its limitations.
I was meaning that this graphic is a very good use of that concept specifically for COVID-related measures of infection control.
It's a very goodt public service message, and vastly superior to such communications from government.
Comments
If it's 700 like the supplemental data website says then he walks it.
I was meaning that this graphic is a very good use of that concept specifically for COVID-related measures of infection control.
Retention bonus postponed.
10k Mail ins left in Fulton County then they are done there 6.5k ready for scrutiny 3.5k still to be opened.
On top of that they have all the absentee and military ballots
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3VrnJIj-AO0
Apologies.
I forecast Trump 278 you plum.
Don't make stuff up please.
Once again, COVID is accelerating existing trends,
https://www.wsbtv.com/news/politics/live-updates-eyes-georgia-state-works-finish-counting-outstanding-ballots/K2PXD7SI3VCDPGNUPMRAV7K5UU/
6:31 a.m.
Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger spoke exclusively with Channel 2 Action News This Morning. There are now under 25,000 ballots left to be counted and Raffensperger says the state should be done by noon today.
6:20 a.m.
The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.
We will leave the border open and maintain our rules and our standards. The good news is that our rules and standards are the same as the EU rules and standards. As we go forward in parallel - adjacent but not connected - we will find that market efficiencies mean that we mutually agree to improvements in those rules and standards.
They won't be forcing us. It will be our choice to remain adjacent to our largest market. Sovereignty. We won't be forced to have free movement or alignment on EURATOM or EUROPOL or anything else. We will choose to maintain these arrangements because they are mutually beneficial.
We will choose to impose much tougher immigration rules allowing us to deport EU nationals unable to show they can support themselves if they try to stay longer than 90 days. And as we realise the economic benefits of maintaining frictionless trade and freedom from red tape we will choose to make payments into the free trade area - not EU payments. UKEA FTA payments. Because its in our interest to do so.
That is our deal. Not the EEA and CU. A clone of them.
This looks like Trump will squeak it
"While we aren’t expecting to get our next update from Maricopa County in Arizona until 9 p.m. tonight, Georgia is expected to finish counting its remaining 25,000 ballots today. Elsewhere, Nevada will announce more results starting at noon Eastern, and we continue to get results at a steady pace in Pennsylvania — which may be Biden’s best chance to end this race."
Looking at Selzer's methods (and though this description is taken from the caucuses polls, the same principle applies), it's possible that the proximity to the election saw a lot more occasional voters turning up ?
Which would suggests that Trump's campaigning had a real effect.
https://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/ann-selzer-iowa-pollster-216151
...“There’s no repository of all the email addresses that are out there,” she said. “Some have three, some have 13, so there’s no way that you can ensure that every person has an equal chance to be contacted. And then in the end you’re dealing with volunteers.”
But it’s also how she obtains the pool of voters from which she randomly selects her sample that differs from other public, telephone pollsters. It’s a major conundrum for many pollsters — how to reflect a low-participation electorate in a presidential caucus. Only 121,000 people participated in the GOP caucuses in 2012 — fewer than 6 percent of the total number of registered voters, and fewer than one-in-five registered Republicans, in the state.
Some pollsters, like the CNN/ORC poll to which Trump referred, randomly call Iowa phone numbers and ask respondents if they’re registered to vote and whether they intend to go to a caucus site. Others, like Monmouth University, have used a tighter screen — only calling those voters who participated in recent primary elections. (Though Monmouth recently expanded its screen to include a minority of people who haven’t participated in past nominating contests.)
Selzer views the CNN poll as too broad, and the Monmouth method — which is shared by some political campaigns — as a methodological shortcut. Calling only or mostly frequent primary voters is too restrictive, Selzer warns, and compromises the sample in order to cut costs, since pollsters are calling only people who have demonstrated past voting behavior.
“Caucuses are a low-incidence event,” Selzer explained. “So if you start with a narrower universe, where the incidence is higher proportionately [among] people who’ve voted in Republican primaries before, your incidence is going to go up to 25, 30, maybe 40 percent. You’re hanging up on fewer people. It’s cheaper to do.”
Selzer, however, uses a list of all registered voters, but she lets those voters tell her whether they intend to caucus...
Good job she will never be Chancellor
Sunak No foresight and continual U Turns
RIGHT DECISION THOUGH
If it was up to me the dating and time system would be y/d/m h:m:s - that would be entirely consistent and more sensible.
If I'm creating daily spreadsheets I tend to create them in a month folder within a year folder so that it is literally y/m/d.xlsx and if I have multiple files in the same folder then I will name them eg "Jan 30.xlsx" not "30 Jan.xlsx" because the computer shows that up smarter.
Even us CONs miss Ed Balls!!
This Bush would have walked away with this election.
Looks like I may add Georgia to my list of hits. I think Biden nabs it by 10K give or take.
Depending on when PA starts rolling in, estimates around 3-5 GMT, we will have Biden called as President Elect by afternoon tea. Very civilised .... More tea Vicar ?
Swiss Cheese model in terms of "events" in engineering or various forms etc...
In Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada, pivotal states that have yet to be called, absentee ballots from military and overseas voters can arrive until next week, while such ballots can arrive in uncalled Georgia until Friday.
In 2016, military voters cast 5,203 absentee ballots in Georgia, according to the Election Assistance Commission. That means, Noland said, “if the race comes down to the wire, those ballots could make a difference.”
We are at 98% not 96% i thought though.
Plus the SoS is R so I think he is rushing this through
PA bloke on CNN predicts a 100k win for Biden
"The Georgia Secretary of State’s Office updated its numbers. As of 6:20 a.m., 18,540 votes now separate President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden."
I suspect the 400,000 figure in PA is wrong and that GA is also down to the 20K or so votes left quoted by the GA rep which suggests GA staying with Trump and PA very close, but we will see
Up rating each county to 100% in proportion to current count gives Trump a final lead of 120K. The net Biden benefit from the Philly count is offset from the net Trump benefit from the Trump counties.
Using the other method of allocating the remaining votes to be counted in proportion to the mail-in proportions for Biden/Trump gives Biden a lead of 237K.
Quite a difference! The county method ignores the mail-in/in-person split so favours Trump. The other method ignores the county makeup of the remaining votes and favours Biden.
Taking a crude average of the two methods gives Biden a lead of 57K.
I'm placing PENN with a 75% chance for Biden.
But as you say - DYOR. This is mine.
https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1324327143296389121?s=20
Richi has adopted Labours policy after calling it irresponsible and unaffordable.
Rejoice.
https://www.quora.com/Are-most-military-people-Republican-or-Democrat
January has more snow, the nights are getting lighter and it will soon be Spring. February is often a good month weather wise.
https://twitter.com/strombergsteve/status/1324234852904914947
It should be said if the count is delayed then reporting the results also might be delayed. So going off 488k with the current margin might not give true figures.
The latest, Reaganland is available in the UK later this month.
What is the updated info ?
https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx
The SoS gave an interview to a TV station with the 25K number and said they would be done by noon.
Given he is Republican, I think if Trump was behind, they would be scrambling around for any loose votes they could find so, given that and the vote split, that's why I think it will be called for Trump.
80,640 minutes, or
1344 hours, or
56 days, or
8 weeks left to sort out all those trade deals.
Maybe if we ignore the problem, it will go away....