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WH2020 – With the counts continuing in several key states Biden is not yet claiming victory – politi
WH2020 – With the counts continuing in several key states Biden is not yet claiming victory – politicalbetting.com
Based on what we have at the moment it looks more likely that Biden will be the next president than Trump.
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Like Trump's imagined column.
(I hope anyway, I suspect Trump will as difficult to shift as an ex with the clap. Those armed vigilantes at the counts scare me.)
Have many other prominent GOPers said that Trump has won?
It was Drutt.
We can agree a deal to avoid checks (though actually most of the checks discussed aren't affected by whether is a deal or not actually). Or we could choose to unilaterally delay or not do checks.
If we choose to unilaterally not do them then that is our choice. That's not a deal. It also means we can change that unilaterally if of when we choose to do so.
That's not saying we can't have babies. It's saying we may choose to have babies in the future but for now we are choosing to use a condom because it suits us to do so for now.
Which is why it's a good thing he has won.
PA is highly likely to go Biden, however there is confusion if the remaining votes are 700k or 488k, if it is 488 BIden needs a higher % then if its 700k. However current split of mail in votes is higher enough even for the 488k remaining.
NV fair bit unknown in there but again people think its a tall ask for Trump to win
AZ should not have been called but again most leaning its too far for Trump. Some recently claims by GOP about registered on they day might swing it for Trump, others not so impressed by that.
So to answer not really, but with counts still to come you never know, but Biden camp likely feeling more confident.
The moment the counting stops the GOP starts looking forwards not backwards.
Is Arizona really as tight as 50/50? I know Trumps closing and has a chance but that much? If Trump wins I suspect he will not be talking to Murdoch for a while for letting the Fox calling it for Biden stand!
I don't know. I've done two models - one by county and the other by mail-in. One gives Arizona to Biden by 76K, the other to Trump by 70K.
So I just went 50/50.
Betfair implies 75/25 for Biden.
Putting 75% for Arizona on my model gives Biden an overall 92.5% chance i.e. 1.08.
Orange man in the orange boiler suit.
Unless, of course, he is in jail!
California 65
Texas 44
New York 34
Florida 33
Illinois 22
Pennsylvania 22
Ohio 20
Michigan 17
Georgia 17
North Carolina 17
New Jersey 15
Virginia 14
Washington 12
Massachusetts 11
Indiana 11
Arizona 11
Tennessee 11
Missouri 10
Maryland 10
Wisconsin 10
Minnesota 9
Colorado 9
Alabama 8
South Carolina 8
Louisiana 8
Kentucky 8
Oregon 7
Oklahoma 7
Connecticut 6
Iowa 5
Mississippi 5
Arkansas 5
Kansas 5
Utah 5
Nevada 5
New Mexico 4
West Virginia 3
Nebraska 3
Idaho 3
Hawaii 2
Maine 2
New Hampshire 2
Rhode Island 2
Montana 2
Delaware 2
South Dakota 1
Alaska 1
North Dakota 1
Vermont 1
District of Columbia 1
Wyoming 1
USA 538
Remember, this is just for a bit of fun!
Very tiny chance in theory that Dems can get to 50-50 with run-off and still counting. But they won't.
Say they split 65/35 for Biden then that gives
496,152 Biden votes
267,158 Trump votes
For Biden +228,994
NYTimes currently has
Trump 3,215,969
Biden 3,051,555
Add 228,994 to Biden and you get
Trump 3,215,969
Biden 3,280,549
For a 65k win
But 65/35 is far too low. The most conservative split I would give is 70/30 for a Biden +305,323 Mail in margin. Giving an overall winning margin of 141k
If they'd counted the mail in ballots first then it would be the same result but would have been called much, much quicker.
It was not until Bill Clinton in 1992 that the Democrats won a presidential election again
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silvio_Berlusconi
The similarities are uncanny.
But America doesn't vote for the Presidency after six years.
He has a 50/50 chance of winning AZ and NV, and possibly better given the Republicans confidence.
GA looks as though it is on a knife edge.
That effectively leaves PA. Alistair is confident it will be Trump but I am less so. Look at the NYT:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-pennsylvania.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2020®ion=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc
Philly has 70% in but all the other counties with 70-80% counted are all Republican and all bar one strongholds. They total 357K votes so far vs Philly's 576K. Taking a 77% average, that means there are over 100K votes left here in mainly Republican strongholds
Then go down to the 80-90% block in. Republican counties at 651K vs Democrat counties at 1.03m. Caveats on both sides - there are more counties with lower R leads but also the three big D counties have much lower leads than Philly.
Then let's do the 90-95% block. All are Republican and total 735K votes. All sit within the 93-95% count range and some are not strongholds but a few are. If you take an average of 94%, that means there are 47K votes out there, which potentially could be critical.
If you then look at all the other counties that are below the "greater than 98%", all bar one are Republican and they are all strongly Republican. Roughly they have 910K votes counted so far for the R counties vs 492K for the D (Montgomery). Trump might be able to eek out another 15-20K votes advantage from there.
One critical point - some of these counties (and they were Republican) started ALL counting late, not just postal ballots so it is likely their splits to come are not as D-friendly as you would think.
DYOR
On the offical site: https://www.votespa.com/About-Elections/Pages/Counting-Dashboard.aspx it is 763k
I supsect your model will be based on AZ patterns of course, knowing your detail to these things but just wanted to ask as I had forgotten AZ has a long tradition of mail in votes
What you think is frankly not relevant to reality. Both the UK and EU negotiators know reality which is why the UK is rapidly heading towards a deal. Back in the day you could buy a Toyota Aygo or a Citroen C1 or a Peugeot 107 built on the same line in the same factory. All three were the literal same car - same panels, same chassis, same engine, different badge. We are about to trade in our 2006 C1 and get a 2006 Aygo and claim its a completely different car.
North Carolina remains to be declared, but is thought a probable Republican hold. Both Georgia Senate seats will go to a run off, but the Republicans will be favourites, given that their overall vote share in Senate contests exceeds that of the Democrats.
Why live in a world where everything is complicated, difficult and boring, when you can live in one that is both exciting and easy to fix if only your enemies would let you?
Although he's only 7000 behind there Trump needed to be ahead after all on the day votes were counted. It will be close but at best I'd give him 15% there now. I only see the 7000 increasing quite a bit now. So I'm not totally discounting your path for Trump, just saying its not 50/50 in Nevada
There is no Trump advantage to any county still to count mail ballots, the only question is how big Biden's lead is in each counties VBM figure.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6kS3y407Ho
As long as Trump gets past 229, I am happy
However, I'm not counting any chickens.
Top 28 counties by remaining Mail BAllot
So left hand drive?
As I understand it, and correct me where I’m wrong, Ann Selzer the Queen of Polling.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ann_Selzer
Her November poll, very much for Trump, was out of step with the pro Biden polling, but proved more accurate.
However it was very different than her more favourable Biden poll the month before.
So was the October poll wildly wrong, or did something actually change during the two polls, she picked up other pollsters didn’t?
Would we have greater trust in polling if it moves a lot month to month? Which it doesn’t tend to do? But polls aren’t simply measuring switching, at certain times people may be more likely to come off a fence with an opinion?
Doing customs checks is not a part of WTO Rules.
Not abusing those checks is. But waiving those checks, if that is what we as a sovereign nation choose to do is entirely within the rules.
The WTO is barely different to international law in that it is, as my avatar says, more like guidelines. The WTO sets guidelines in its rules but how countries operate within them is up to them. As a sovereign country how we operate will be up to us not the WTO.
Yes there's the possibility of disputes but they take years or decades to resolve.
If Trump's supporters believe he was cheated out of an election win, they won't see him as a loser. And he is, after all, currently more than 5.6 million votes up on his 2016 total.
Normally when an incumbent loses it's because there's a decisive shift against them. This time it's like we had two waves, one for and one against, and if Trump loses it will be because the wave against was somewhat larger. But Trump still had a wave of support. That will have consequences.
It's one reason the election reminds me of UKGE2017.
You know the one “what? A reality TV star is President?” will go on to become President?
Unlimited money!