If that's all that's left i suspect the 488K figure was right and the 700K one wrong , which means it will be much closer in PA than those 100-200K projections I
No wonder they managed to get 90% turnout for the whole state.
That's what happens when you allow people to register to vote on election day; the number of voters can exceed the number who were registered before it started.
Apparently the reason we have earls rather than counts in the UK nobility is because of the similarity of the sound of the word count to something else...
Probably just an urban legend, but don't shatter my illusions if it is.
For consistency, we should also have visearls or visjarls rather than viscounts.
If that's all that's left i suspect the 488K figure was right and the 700K one wrong , which means it will be much closer in PA than those 100-200K projections I
It seems every time Trump looks like he might have a chance there is a massive delay for no reason then a big dump of Biden votes.
Why on Earth is it mysterious?
It's taking a long time to count the ballots because a lot more mail-in ballots were used this time than normal. Because there's a pandemic on, for a start.
The State refused to allow counting to begin prior to Election Day, which is why it's so late.
There are delays because people take breaks and also don't instantly update websites.
And they're massively Biden, because, well, why do you think?
As it stands Trump has 213 EV. If they STOP THE COUNT he would be awarded Alaska: 3 EV Georgia: 16 EV Maine 2: 1 EV North Carolina: 15 EV Pennsylvania: 20 EV Giving him 268.
Biden is on 253. So he would be awarded: Arizona: 11 EV Nevada: 6 EV Giving him 270 EV
So if the states do as Donald Trump requests, Donald Trump loses the election.
Don't try to confuse the GREATEST PRESIDENT EVER!! with math.
Question....do we think Trump will run again in 2024 if he loses now? And if he does want to run again will the Rs want him to again? On the one hand he has huge appeal and gets the vote numbers to win,,,on the other he's Trump, What do people think?
As it stands Trump has 213 EV. If they STOP THE COUNT he would be awarded Alaska: 3 EV Georgia: 16 EV Maine 2: 1 EV North Carolina: 15 EV Pennsylvania: 20 EV Giving him 268.
Biden is on 253. So he would be awarded: Arizona: 11 EV Nevada: 6 EV Giving him 270 EV
So if the states do as Donald Trump requests, Donald Trump loses the election.
But it would prevent what is shaping up to be a very clear defeat. You can do a lot of mischief with a 268/270. With 232/306, not so much. Especially combined with a 5m or 6m loss in the PV.
Loving all the people who said Biden bettors were going with their heart over their head either having fucked off without trace or peddling conspiracy theories now.
Does anyone believe that Trump's legal cases will make any difference to the overall outcome? Personally, my vague impression of US courts is that, though politicised, they generally act with a fair degree of integrity.
Would it be fair to think that a lot of Trump's complaints will be thrown out, often by Republican county and state courts, or by the Supreme court on appeal, or, where there are remedies, that these will not be sufficient to turn the outcome, especially if PA and GA fall Biden.
On the allegation about Biden's votes suddenly jumping by thousands of votes when Trump's doesn't: unclear if this is right, but even if it is, I don't think it's suspicious. Surely the normal thing to do in a manual count would be to catalogue the votes for a given candidate in chunks of (say) 1000, then put ten of those together in chunks of ten thousand, and periodically add batches of those ten-thousand chunks to your overall count.
It seems every time Trump looks like he might have a chance there is a massive delay for no reason then a big dump of Biden votes.
Because the GOP controlled PA legislature kept up daft rules like secrecy envelopes, and no vote being able to be tabulated before the day starts. Trump also discouraged his supporters from using VBM. And he's absolubtely despised in Philadelphia in particular.
Question....do we think Trump will run again in 2024 if he loses now? And if he does want to run again will the Rs want him to again? On the one hand he has huge appeal and gets the vote numbers to win,,,on the other he's Trump, What do people think?
No way. In 4 years he will be too old, and yesterdays news.
On the allegation about Biden's votes suddenly jumping by thousands of votes when Trump's doesn't: unclear if this is right, but even if it is, I don't think it's suspicious. Surely the normal thing to do in a manual count would be to catalogue the votes for a given candidate in chunks of (say) 1000, then put ten of those together in chunks of ten thousand, and periodically add batches of those ten-thousand chunks to your overall count.
If true then that explains it, but is there any evidence that this happened? I didn't see any similar jumps for Trump in any state or for Biden in non-marginals.
Question....do we think Trump will run again in 2024 if he loses now? And if he does want to run again will the Rs want him to again? On the one hand he has huge appeal and gets the vote numbers to win,,,on the other he's Trump, What do people think?
No way. In 4 years he will be too old, and yesterdays news.
I do find it incredible that the two parties in America thought the best men to lead them were both 70-somethings.
Or more than that, the two best people to lead them were 70-something men!
On the allegation about Biden's votes suddenly jumping by thousands of votes when Trump's doesn't: unclear if this is right, but even if it is, I don't think it's suspicious. Surely the normal thing to do in a manual count would be to catalogue the votes for a given candidate in chunks of (say) 1000, then put ten of those together in chunks of ten thousand, and periodically add batches of those ten-thousand chunks to your overall count.
If true then that explains it, but is there any evidence that this happened? I didn't see any similar jumps for Trump in any state or for Biden in non-marginals.
It seems every time Trump looks like he might have a chance there is a massive delay for no reason then a big dump of Biden votes.
Because the GOP controlled PA legislature kept up daft rules like secrecy envelopes, and no vote being able to be tabulated before the day starts. Trump also discouraged his supporters from using VBM. And he's absolubtely despised in Philadelphia in particular.
Stop bringing facts into the debate or DAlexander might deport you.
Indeed. Though not to excuse Trump, who thank goodness eems like he probably cannot snatch victory from here, but while there were people in 2016 going 'He's awful, but time to give Trump a chance to govern, blah blah blah, wish him well' with normal platitudes, others did go in hard on 'This is not normal, we must resist every second of his presidency', so while Trump will probably behave a million times worse, he's probably a sign of the times, escalated by massive ego, rather than totally unique.
Question....do we think Trump will run again in 2024 if he loses now? And if he does want to run again will the Rs want him to again? On the one hand he has huge appeal and gets the vote numbers to win,,,on the other he's Trump, What do people think?
I suppose it's possible, but he would have been a non-President for 4 years and hence open to law enforcement for that period of time.
So those show 700k votes left but as mentioned earlier seems like the official site is claiming 488k to go. If its 700k Biden needs to be winning 60% If its 488k he needs to be winning 67-68% to win. As of last night Biden was winning 78% of the mail-in count
@theenglishborn Do you have a link to the Pennsylvania offical site.? Every time I try to go to what I assume the offical site is I get redirected away.
I am afraid not, if it notices you from outside the US it redirects. Maybe try a VPN? I have been going off twitter and reddit screenshots
So, just to be clear - how many votes do we think are left to count in PA?
As many as it takes, even if to invent them if needs be?
On the allegation about Biden's votes suddenly jumping by thousands of votes when Trump's doesn't: unclear if this is right, but even if it is, I don't think it's suspicious. Surely the normal thing to do in a manual count would be to catalogue the votes for a given candidate in chunks of (say) 1000, then put ten of those together in chunks of ten thousand, and periodically add batches of those ten-thousand chunks to your overall count.
If true then that explains it, but is there any evidence that this happened? I didn't see any similar jumps for Trump in any state or for Biden in non-marginals.
Every state's procedures are different (and quite possibly individual counties as well).
I don't know if this is the explanation, but it seems plausible.
Question....do we think Trump will run again in 2024 if he loses now? And if he does want to run again will the Rs want him to again? On the one hand he has huge appeal and gets the vote numbers to win,,,on the other he's Trump, What do people think?
No way. In 4 years he will be too old, and yesterdays news.
Betfair gives Biden a better chance in NC than Trump has in NV.
I think people are over estimating how many actual (rather than potential) ballots are remaining in North Carolina.
Unless Trump can deport those 10,000 illegal NV residents he's just found today and reverse their votes, he's not winning NV, I actually think now he needs to find a least double that number. So as the day goes on he might revise his legal bid to 20.000 pesky illegals
When did 'Conservatives' get re-branded to 'Rishi Sunak'? Don't get me wrong, it has a certain ring to it
I think 2/1 is to short for him to be next Con leader. There is a reasonable chance that, when they are out of a job, the furlough ends and has to be paid back, voters will be unhappy with the lockdown parties, and Rishi's fingerprints are all over his one's policy.
No liquidity on Betfair really, But I would take EVS that the next PM is neither Rishi nor Sir Keir
As it stands Trump has 213 EV. If they STOP THE COUNT he would be awarded Alaska: 3 EV Georgia: 16 EV Maine 2: 1 EV North Carolina: 15 EV Pennsylvania: 20 EV Giving him 268.
Biden is on 253. So he would be awarded: Arizona: 11 EV Nevada: 6 EV Giving him 270 EV
So if the states do as Donald Trump requests, Donald Trump loses the election.
But it would prevent what is shaping up to be a very clear defeat. You can do a lot of mischief with a 268/270. With 232/306, not so much. Especially combined with a 5m or 6m loss in the PV.
Sure. So they stop counting and award as is - Trump loses. So then the next stage is to reverse some of the votes before they get certified. Get hundreds of thousands of ballots stuck off in WI and MI and NV etc. If that doesn't work then go to the Supreme Court to try and do the same. At the same time get working on the electors - are there states run by the GOP who have just voted for Biden?
I know as you do why he's said stop the count. The entire election is illegitimate in his eyes as he's lost. So cheat.
Question....do we think Trump will run again in 2024 if he loses now? And if he does want to run again will the Rs want him to again? On the one hand he has huge appeal and gets the vote numbers to win,,,on the other he's Trump, What do people think?
No way. In 4 years he will be too old, and yesterdays news.
Looking at that maybe I'm not religious simply because I find overt displays of any kind too embarrassing to get into. I get awkward even with crowd chanting.
Question....do we think Trump will run again in 2024 if he loses now? And if he does want to run again will the Rs want him to again? On the one hand he has huge appeal and gets the vote numbers to win,,,on the other he's Trump, What do people think?
No way. In 4 years he will be too old, and yesterdays news.
I do find it incredible that the two parties in America thought the best men to lead them were both 70-somethings.
Or more than that, the two best people to lead them were 70-something men!
Well, there were a couple of dozen contenders in the Dem primary, only three being such ann age, and whittled down to two old fogeys in the end.
Political careers do go on and on over there. Super annuated politicians go till they drop. Pelosi is another.
In the last week, Starmer and Dodds have both been entirely vindicated. Politically, though, it is unlikely to matter.
It doesn't matter at all anywhere. They might have said the right thing weeks ago and done the right thing in the HoC but all anyone will care about is that the govt won the votes and Lab supported them.
That is not a good look for an Opposition.
It's better to be right than wrong. Doing the right thing is also important, even if there are no votes in it.
You'll never get anywhere this century with that attitude.
Though it reminds me, what happened to those very pleasant Utah chaps who appeared in an ad together? I assume the Republican won, but it was good to see at least some civil cooperation during the election.
Indeed. Though not to excuse Trump, who thank goodness eems like he probably cannot snatch victory from here, but while there were people in 2016 going 'He's awful, but time to give Trump a chance to govern, blah blah blah, wish him well' with normal platitudes, others did go in hard on 'This is not normal, we must resist every second of his presidency', so while Trump will probably behave a million times worse, he's probably a sign of the times, escalated by massive ego, rather than totally unique.
There was a big campaign to remove him from office via the courts, I guess he sees trying to stay there via them as no different
So those show 700k votes left but as mentioned earlier seems like the official site is claiming 488k to go. If its 700k Biden needs to be winning 60% If its 488k he needs to be winning 67-68% to win. As of last night Biden was winning 78% of the mail-in count
@theenglishborn Do you have a link to the Pennsylvania offical site.? Every time I try to go to what I assume the offical site is I get redirected away.
I am afraid not, if it notices you from outside the US it redirects. Maybe try a VPN? I have been going off twitter and reddit screenshots
So, just to be clear - how many votes do we think are left to count in PA?
As many as it takes, even if to invent them if needs be?
Sounds like it could come down to a few hundred. How exciting! Particularly now it doesn't look like the whole election will come down to it, so there's not so much worry.
For the next Presidential election I propose sending the counters from Sunderland to all the key states to train, conduct, and oversee the vote counting.
We can count 32 million votes in a few hours, so get your fingers out America.
Betfair gives Biden a better chance in NC than Trump has in NV.
I think people are over estimating how many actual (rather than potential) ballots are remaining in North Carolina.
Unless Trump can deport those 10,000 illegal NV residents he's just found today and reverse their votes, he's not winning NV, I actually think now he needs to find a least double that number. So as the day goes on he might revise his legal bid to 20.000 pesky illegals
How does he know those 10 000 weren't his own voters?
Question....do we think Trump will run again in 2024 if he loses now? And if he does want to run again will the Rs want him to again? On the one hand he has huge appeal and gets the vote numbers to win,,,on the other he's Trump, What do people think?
No way. In 4 years he will be too old, and yesterdays news.
I do find it incredible that the two parties in America thought the best men to lead them were both 70-somethings.
Or more than that, the two best people to lead them were 70-something men!
Well, there were a couple of dozen contenders in the Dem primary, only three being such ann age, and whittled down to two old fogeys in the end.
Political careers do go on and on over there. Super annuated politicians go till they drop. Pelosi is another.
"the two parties in America thought the best men"
But they don't in America. The registered voters choose them in primaries. Seems at least possible now that the Dem primary voters made the right call. Do we really think Sanders or Warren would be a few hours from the needed 270 ECV?
What are people thinking about next May's elections? Will they happen?
The sensible, pragmatic decision would be to decide now to switch them to all-postal so that there's plenty of time to plan printing, posting and public information.
I suspect that would be seen as too negative on the virus, so the risk is that we're faced with last-minute decisions.
The only reason for elections not going ahead would be objections about parties being unable to campaign. But i don't see why an election HAS to require a traditional election campaign. All you need for an election is an ability for all eligible voters to cast their vote. Campaign or no campaign. If that is perceived to advantage one side or another, tough. It's the same for everyone.
I'd speculated about at least deferring the ones scheduled for 2021 to 2022, so the scheduled 2020 ones could go ahead without it being a super massive election and limit theburden of what might socially distanced counting etc, but from the sounds of it the plan is to plough on.
Betfair gives Biden a better chance in NC than Trump has in NV.
I think people are over estimating how many actual (rather than potential) ballots are remaining in North Carolina.
Unless Trump can deport those 10,000 illegal NV residents he's just found today and reverse their votes, he's not winning NV, I actually think now he needs to find a least double that number. So as the day goes on he might revise his legal bid to 20.000 pesky illegals
How does he know those 10 000 weren't his own voters?
Because they did'nt have MAGA hats on when they voted?
On the allegation about Biden's votes suddenly jumping by thousands of votes when Trump's doesn't: unclear if this is right, but even if it is, I don't think it's suspicious. Surely the normal thing to do in a manual count would be to catalogue the votes for a given candidate in chunks of (say) 1000, then put ten of those together in chunks of ten thousand, and periodically add batches of those ten-thousand chunks to your overall count.
I guess the equivalent in the UK is how it looks like Labour is winning every election for the first couple of hours of counting, or at least used to do so, until the more rural Conservative seats come in.
But, we don't give a live running commentary upon counts *in progress* other than to say 'looking good for so and so' or 'feeling confident', which can suddenly change but only in tight marginals.
Medway with Bob Marshall-Andrews in 2005 is a good example.
No wonder they managed to get 90% turnout for the whole state.
One assumes “registered voters” means something like “voters with registered party affiliation” rather than “electors who are registered and eligible to vote” as it does.
For the next Presidential election I propose sending the counters from Sunderland to all the key states to train, conduct, and oversee the vote counting.
We can count 32 million votes in a few hours, so get your fingers out America.
I was wondering whether they’ve taken their training from Northern Ireland.
Looking at that maybe I'm not religious simply because I find overt displays of any kind too embarrassing to get into. I get awkward even with crowd chanting.
It is complete cringe for at least 90% of us I would guess + the speaking in tongues is more a sign of mental illness. My very mainstream congregation would probably call the police if she turned up our way on any given Sunday.
Does anyone believe that Trump's legal cases will make any difference to the overall outcome? Personally, my vague impression of US courts is that, though politicised, they generally act with a fair degree of integrity.
Would it be fair to think that a lot of Trump's complaints will be thrown out, often by Republican county and state courts, or by the Supreme court on appeal, or, where there are remedies, that these will not be sufficient to turn the outcome, especially if PA and GA fall Biden.
There is no chance of the overall election outcome being altered in the courts and he and his people - Guiliani etc - know this. Their aim is to create a popular narrative with his base that their hero didn't really lose. He won - like he always does, being a Winner - but was then cheated out of it by the evil and devious Swamp. Trump needs this narrative to hold in order to protect and burnish his brand post-presidency.
What are people thinking about next May's elections? Will they happen?
The sensible, pragmatic decision would be to decide now to switch them to all-postal so that there's plenty of time to plan printing, posting and public information.
I suspect that would be seen as too negative on the virus, so the risk is that we're faced with last-minute decisions.
Time to introduce secure on-line voting.
Secure online voting is not attainable. Certainly not by May, and possibly not ever. The only reliable, secure methods of voting involve paper and pencil.
Quite. Online voting is a chimera - paper counts do not cause problems or delays, if done right and properly resourced, nor would the level of health risk leading to a switch to online voting be a proportionate response when, as with many acticities, we can take other steps.
No wonder they managed to get 90% turnout for the whole state.
One assumes “registered voters” means something like “voters with registered party affiliation” rather than “electors who are registered and eligible to vote” as it does.
Otherwise...
No I don't think so it means "voters who are registered" but since eligible voters can register on the day that doesn't mean all eligible voters.
Apparently the reason we have earls rather than counts in the UK nobility is because of the similarity of the sound of the word count to something else...
Probably just an urban legend, but don't shatter my illusions if it is.
For consistency, we should also have visearls or visjarls rather than viscounts.
We should have viceroys.
It was Norman co-option
When they took over they wanted Saxon earls to buy in to the new regime so confirmed their existing titles
No wonder they managed to get 90% turnout for the whole state.
One assumes “registered voters” means something like “voters with registered party affiliation” rather than “electors who are registered and eligible to vote” as it does.
Otherwise...
Plus, in some states you can register to vote on the day of election.
Sounds bizarre to us, but we are talking about America.
Does anyone believe that Trump's legal cases will make any difference to the overall outcome? Personally, my vague impression of US courts is that, though politicised, they generally act with a fair degree of integrity.
Would it be fair to think that a lot of Trump's complaints will be thrown out, often by Republican county and state courts, or by the Supreme court on appeal, or, where there are remedies, that these will not be sufficient to turn the outcome, especially if PA and GA fall Biden.
There is no chance of the overall election outcome being altered in the courts and he and his people - Guiliani etc - know this. Their aim is to create a popular narrative with his base that their hero didn't really lose. He won - like he always does, being a Winner - but was then cheated out of it by the evil and devious Swamp. Trump needs this narrative to hold in order to protect and burnish his brand post-presidency.
Thank god those disaffected voters aren’t all armed and dangerous. Oh, wait....
I know a three word phrase is the tradition, but surely someone on his staff could at least tell him to demand the illegal counts be stopped, or words to that effect, so he could pretend he only wants to stop illegitimate votes. Which is presumably the legal arguments his lawyers will try, but his tantrums rather give the game away that its just about stopping the counts themselves, not that they should surprise anyone.
Surely once we blow the current mist away Biden will have won this fairly comfortably.
Its funny how people were saying for ages "don't overreact to early votes since the on the day GOP votes will be counted first in the key states" only for everyone to lose their mind at first when that happened!
Its turning out as a pretty solid and comfortable Biden victory once all the votes are counted.
It seems every time Trump looks like he might have a chance there is a massive delay for no reason then a big dump of Biden votes.
Because the GOP controlled PA legislature kept up daft rules like secrecy envelopes, and no vote being able to be tabulated before the day starts. Trump also discouraged his supporters from using VBM. And he's absolubtely despised in Philadelphia in particular.
It's not just that it is slow, it is a slow but steady speed and then suddenly stops completely for a few hours.
Comments
I'm talking about delays since the voting has finished.
Meanwhile 7 counties in Milwaukee have more votes than registered voters, 2 over 200%.
https://mkecitywire.com/stories/564495243-analysis-seven-milwaukee-wards-report-more-2020-presidential-votes-than-registered-voters-biden-nets-146k-votes-in-city
No wonder they managed to get 90% turnout for the whole state.
Biden wins by 100k on current trends
200k looks too high to me
It's taking a long time to count the ballots because a lot more mail-in ballots were used this time than normal. Because there's a pandemic on, for a start.
The State refused to allow counting to begin prior to Election Day, which is why it's so late.
There are delays because people take breaks and also don't instantly update websites.
And they're massively Biden, because, well, why do you think?
Biden might only take it by hundreds.
Hence the turnout is running at ~90% not 200%.
It makes them look cool and analytical.
https://twitter.com/AlexSelbyB/status/1324360882210689025
But that's just a coincidence.
Would it be fair to think that a lot of Trump's complaints will be thrown out, often by Republican county and state courts, or by the Supreme court on appeal, or, where there are remedies, that these will not be sufficient to turn the outcome, especially if PA and GA fall Biden.
Trump also discouraged his supporters from using VBM. And he's absolubtely despised in Philadelphia in particular.
Wow. Just wow.
Or more than that, the two best people to lead them were 70-something men!
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1324341547207458816
I don't know if this is the explanation, but it seems plausible.
Just saying.
No liquidity on Betfair really, But I would take EVS that the next PM is neither Rishi nor Sir Keir
I know as you do why he's said stop the count. The entire election is illegitimate in his eyes as he's lost. So cheat.
Will be easier to persuade people to stay at home as much as possible if they know a vaccine is being rolled out.
Political careers do go on and on over there. Super annuated politicians go till they drop. Pelosi is another.
Though it reminds me, what happened to those very pleasant Utah chaps who appeared in an ad together? I assume the Republican won, but it was good to see at least some civil cooperation during the election.
We can count 32 million votes in a few hours, so get your fingers out America.
But they don't in America. The registered voters choose them in primaries. Seems at least possible now that the Dem primary voters made the right call. Do we really think Sanders or Warren would be a few hours from the needed 270 ECV?
Meanwhile Donald Fucking Trump can sit in the Whitehouse denying, denying....
But, we don't give a live running commentary upon counts *in progress* other than to say 'looking good for so and so' or 'feeling confident', which can suddenly change but only in tight marginals.
Medway with Bob Marshall-Andrews in 2005 is a good example.
Otherwise...
“Our Constitution does not secure the peaceful transition of power, but rather presupposes it,” says Amherst law professor Lawrence Douglas.
https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1324363966567583745
When they took over they wanted Saxon earls to buy in to the new regime so confirmed their existing titles
Sounds bizarre to us, but we are talking about America.
Biden's required lead in votes still to come: 17%. (Down from 30% yesterday evening.)
Its turning out as a pretty solid and comfortable Biden victory once all the votes are counted.
Georgia hasn't changed for hours now.