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UK punters getting nervous about Biden’s prospects and the money is going on Trump – politicalbettin

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited November 2020
    kle4 said:

    Quite. If parts of the UK are not willing to support other parts in their time of need what's the point of it? I have no concern there.
    Indeed. Thougfh refusing the Mancs and Geordies as well rather shows that the English border is not really the criterion and whining about Scottish etc taxpayers is a smokescreen. Or perhaps Mancs and Geordies aren't human or English and it's only people in the South of England, you know, places like Essex, which really really really are true English when it comes to furlough at full whack.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133

    DAlexander? Hmmmm... isn't Alexander a Greek name?
    D'Alexander sounds suspiciously French to me.

    Get the tumbrils rolling for the great purge.
  • Out of curiosity @DAlexander where would you deport Thomas Mair to?

    I could never have guessed the Thomas Mair case would be brought up.

    I'm all for booting him out to be honest, he can go as well for all I care. Not that he's ever going to get out, so it's completely irrelevant.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,575
    edited November 2020
    kle4 said:

    Shit, my name Irish, I don't think that passes muster either.

    Is it one of those Irish names that is spelt nothing like it sounds?

    Because I'm all in favour of deporting people like that.

    I had an employee called 'Kiva' but spelt 'Caoimhe'

    That was a bloody nightmare.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    MrEd said:

    FYI Sumter is at 81% turnout and will likely go higher. Not so many in-person votes yet but Republicans leading Democrats by registration by nearly 5 to 1
    Fake news?


    Party Ballots Cast Percent of Ballots Cast
    Democrat 20,172 23.45%
    Republican 50,691 58.93%
    No Party Affiliation 14,584 16.95%
    Other 575 0.67%
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Is it one of those Irish names that is spelt nothing like it sounds?

    Because I'm all in favour of deporting people like that?

    I had an employee called 'Kiva' but spelt 'Caoimhe'

    That was a bloody nightmare.
    That's only becausde your eddication isn't broad enough. You can pronounce French. What's wrong with the Gaelic?
  • Talking about fascists and identity, my two brothers-in-law used to be soft BNP supporters in their yoof. They also liked the idea of deporting unwanted foreigners. I remember one conversation where I pointed out that as they were quarter Irish half Spanish and were called Rodriguez that they probably should be careful what they wish for and which of Ireland oir Spain did they wish to be deported to.

    I couldn't give a monkey's what ethic background British citizens have, what their name is, what their faith is. We are all subject to the same laws and that means not being deported to a country you aren't a citizen of. There is a problem at the moment with Islamic terror as there was Irish terror before them. The solution to the IRA wasn't to arrest people at Holyhead for having Irish names and fitting them up for terror offences, and the solution to ISIS isn't arresting "Mohammad Sidique Khan" for having a Pakistani name.

    In a country named after Germanic migrants we really should know better about castigating anyone who looks / sounds foreign. That was us a few millennia ago
  • Mohammad Sidique Khan is one of the 7/7 bombers.
    There's not much of him left to deport....to Leeds....
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,058

    Alternatively in Broward County Florida (pro Dem), turnout has surpassed 2016 and the enormous Dem leading is holding.

    https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=bro

    Yes but for Biden to get the same % lead as Clinton did in 2016, either the unaffiliateds have to split to him at least 60/40 or voters registered as Republicans have to be unfaithful in large numbers. Could be.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,483
    TOPPING said:

    Oh! We're using peoples' names to determine whether they are English. Are you being serious?
    Anyone with the moniker D'Alexander should clearly be sent back to France...
  • Mohammad Sidique Khan is one of the 7/7 bombers. I thought I'd add that context before Topping gets me banned.
    That doesn't change the fact you want to deport a British citizen born in Britain because of his name. 🤦🏻‍♂️
  • Out of interest, does anyone know whether Americans’ party “registration” is shown on their electoral roll (assuming they have one)? It’s such an odd concept.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Fake news?


    Party Ballots Cast Percent of Ballots Cast
    Democrat 20,172 23.45%
    Republican 50,691 58.93%
    No Party Affiliation 14,584 16.95%
    Other 575 0.67%
    I was counting the election day votes only and the ratio, which was nearly 5 to 1 for Republicans.

    But you are right, I should have made that clear
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    kle4 said:

    Honestly itd be hilarious if Biden wins, not even by much, and Trump shocked everyone by reacting gracefully.

    Wont happen, his schtick is no act, as seems to have shocked many who worked for him, but it would be amusing to see his supporters' reaction to gracefully defeat

    Still, I'm a Biden better, as someone coined it, so no chickens counted.


    I had this bizarre dream last night of that actually happening. He called Biden to concede, warned him that it would be a difficult ride, and wished him well.

    Of course, there is zero chance of that happening!
  • I have vague memories of Machiavelli saying that people who correct a flaw usually jump too far in the other direction and make the opposite mistake. Suspect this is just nervousness based on what happened last time.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,724

    Is it one of those Irish names that is spelt nothing like it sounds?

    Because I'm all in favour of deporting people like that.

    I had an employee called 'Kiva' but spelt 'Caoimhe'

    That was a bloody nightmare.
    My wife's a Yank and her name sounds as home counties, minor gentry, possible Tory PPC as they come. Call her English and she'd kill you.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,724

    I have vague memories of Machiavelli saying that people who correct a flaw usually jump too far in the other direction and make the opposite mistake. Suspect this is just nervousness based on what happened last time.

    I think so too. Also I have been targetted with popup ads pointing out the Clinton/Trump odds last time out encouraging me/anyone else with a suitable browser history to have a punt on him.
  • Carnyx said:

    That's only becausde your eddication isn't broad enough. You can pronounce French. What's wrong with the Gaelic?
    As a rootless cosmopolitan I can speak seven languages, all of them have some sort of logic, including the French with their plethora of things like accent aigus, Gaelic has no logic.
  • Is it one of those Irish names that is spelt nothing like it sounds?

    Because I'm all in favour of deporting people like that.

    I had an employee called 'Kiva' but spelt 'Caoimhe'

    That was a bloody nightmare.
    Ahem!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    Fake news?


    Party Ballots Cast Percent of Ballots Cast
    Democrat 20,172 23.45%
    Republican 50,691 58.93%
    No Party Affiliation 14,584 16.95%
    Other 575 0.67%
    He's talking about election day votes only, it's currently 67.27% Rep to 14.39% for the Dems. So at 4.8 to 1
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133
    On a lighter note, every president needs Irish ancestry...

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1323625727418355714?s=19
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    MrEd said:

    I was counting the election day votes only and the ratio, which was nearly 5 to 1 for Republicans.

    But you are right, I should have made that clear
    :D I would have said so!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    As a rootless cosmopolitan I can speak seven languages, all of them have some sort of logic, including the French with their plethora of things like accent aigus, Gaelic has no logic.
    Oh, why do you think that? Seriously?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    :D I would have said so!
    I can't get everything right ;)
  • Is it one of those Irish names that is spelt nothing like it sounds?

    Because I'm all in favour of deporting people like that.

    I had an employee called 'Kiva' but spelt 'Caoimhe'

    That was a bloody nightmare.
    I once worked in an office in Dublin, where there were three women called 'Maeve', and each had a different spelling.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,724
    MrEd said:

    I was counting the election day votes only and the ratio, which was nearly 5 to 1 for Republicans.

    But you are right, I should have made that clear
    AND...it's 9.18am in Florida. Over to PB.com where the election day votes have already been counted.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,034
    MrEd said:

    Being slightly sceptical here but let's say you wanted to discredit Trump - surely this is the sort of thing you would do?
    Hilarious. You have surpassed yourself with that one Ed!
  • Foxy said:

    D'Alexander sounds suspiciously French to me.

    Get the tumbrils rolling for the great purge.
    Hmmmmm... "Foxy" sounds sufficiently Aesopian to me that we should be deporting you to Greece. Any particular resort you prefer?
  • That doesn't change the fact you want to deport a British citizen born in Britain because of his name. 🤦🏻‍♂️
    This is getting ridiculous.

    I wanted to deport him because he committed a terrorist act not because of his name.

    But as someone has just pointed out...there's not much left of him to deport.

    This game of trying to twist peoples' words so you can shout racist at them for instead of coming up with a reasonable counter-argument is incredibly tedious now.

    Denmark are doing it, it's really not that outrageous. And maybe those people killed yesterday would still be alive now (not that actual real people matter when there's a chance to score points off people you don't know on the internet).
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    Although so many votes wont be counted in crucial swing states until after today (due to the postal vote rules in some states) , one early result I'll be looking at is Sumpter County in FL (home of the Village and the older group that traditionally vote heavily R)
    I think about 80% of all reg voters there have early voted and FL rules mean those votes will have been counted. So I'd expect that county's results not too long after polls close.
    In 2016 Trump won 68% to 29% or so there. If he's in similar shape this time its a good indicator that he's doing well in FL . On the other hand if he's in the low 60s he could well be in trouble in the state as it would indicate a chunk of older voters have deserted him.
    It's only one indicator but most agree that if Trump loses FL hes pretty much done. So this might be an early indicator of how FL is looking, on the other hand,,,,it might be 66/34 and tell us , not much at all :)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    He's talking about election day votes only, it's currently 67.27% Rep to 14.39% for the Dems. So at 4.8 to 1
    He didn't write that though – seriously misleading on a betting site.
  • Carnyx said:

    Oh, why do you think that? Seriously?
    Probably because I've tried to learn to speak Gaelic.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,724

    This is getting ridiculous.

    I wanted to deport him because he committed a terrorist act not because of his name.

    But as someone has just pointed out...there's not much left of him to deport.

    This game of trying to twist peoples' words so you can shout racist at them for instead of coming up with a reasonable counter-argument is incredibly tedious now.

    Denmark are doing it, it's really not that outrageous. And maybe those people killed yesterday would still be alive now (not that actual real people matter when there's a chance to score points off people you don't know on the internet).
    Then why did you make such a point of his name not sounding "native English". Why not simply say that if at all possible he should have been deported? It's the use of the phrase "native English" that outs you.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,091

    Hmmmmm... "Foxy" sounds sufficiently Aesopian to me that we should be deporting you to Greece. Any particular resort you prefer?
    Lieutenant George : Smithy, you haven't seen any suspicious characters hanging around have you, who might be German spies?
    Brigadier Smith : Nein.
    Lieutenant George : Nine! Well, the cap's got his work cut out, then.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,034
    MrEd said:

    I'd watch your words @TSE. I'm not defending any bigots. What I am questioning is "cui bono" this is.
    No what you are doing is wheeling out the Trumpton "Fake News" response to any inconvenient fact. It's so predictable I think I could have guessed how long it would be before one of you came out with it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,091

    I once worked in an office in Dublin, where there were three women called 'Maeve', and each had a different spelling.
    Just call everyone Bruce. Much less confusing.
  • This is getting ridiculous.

    I wanted to deport him because he committed a terrorist act not because of his name.

    Then why did you bring his name into it?

  • I had this bizarre dream last night of that actually happening. He called Biden to concede, warned him that it would be a difficult ride, and wished him well.

    Of course, there is zero chance of that happening!
    The thing with Trump is he can actually be like that e.g. death of RBG. Most of time, Trump is totally predictable with his reactions, but from time to time he can shock with sounding decent.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Probably because I've tried to learn to speak Gaelic.
    And yet I have this Gaelic grammar in the bookcase downstairs, so it certainly has its logic!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,153
    Foxy said:

    On a lighter note, every president needs Irish ancestry...

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1323625727418355714?s=19

    Ronald Reagan the only Munsterman, and none from Connacht?

    I'm really quite surprised.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,091
    Foxy said:

    On a lighter note, every president needs Irish ancestry...

    https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1323625727418355714?s=19

    George MacDonald Fraser pointed out that no-one familiar with the Scottish border would have been surprised by the way Nixon behaved. The Nixons were exported to Ireland, en-masse, as part of the shutting down of the border feuding system. Their reputation was somewhat.... er... tricky?
  • The thing with Trump is he can actually be like that e.g. death of RBG. Most of time, Trump is totally predictable with his reactions, but from time to time he can shock with sounding decent.
    He practically jumped into RBG's grave with glee at the fact that she had died so he could nominate a Justice.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,683

    If he does lose (which I expect), Trump TV is going to be yuuuuuuge...i mean look at the numbers the second rate surrogates like Hannity do, when his fans can have the real deal on 5 nights a week.

    The deal for no prison will preclude him doing this sort of stuff.

    Golf.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,371
    edited November 2020

    He practically jumped into RBG's grave with glee at the fact that she had died so he could nominate a Justice.
    No, his piece to camera was decent. Shockingly so for Trump.

    https://youtu.be/knlJWu815C0
  • isamisam Posts: 41,220
    TOPPING said:

    What about child murderers?
    Hadn't heard anything about that

  • isamisam Posts: 41,220
    edited November 2020
    2 year old footage, and I cant guarantee the subtitles match what he says

    https://twitter.com/MaajidNawaz/status/1323607959990054912?s=20
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    HYUFD said:

    If Trump loses and Biden only wins narrowly I would certainly expect Trump to run again in 2024.

    No other Republican would likely be able to beat him for the nomination and Harris would be an easier opponent for him than Biden and he could paint her as radical left in a way he could not do for the former Vice President, assuming Biden will be too old to run again.

    It would take a Biden-Harris landslide of LBJ 1964 levels and Trump to face the worst GOP defeat since Goldwater for him to leave the scene even if defeated

    He’s not a Republican. He’s not a conservative, he has been ripping out the tree roots, the platform of fiscal responsibility, friends abroad, respect for law, republicans have fought and won on for decades, in order to shift the tree to blood and soil nationalism.

    The GOP are now Wise to him. They are ready to move on him, just a matter of hours now.

    If you genuinely believe what you have written, the tone of Moscow Mitch and Liz Cheney on 4th November is going to shock you.
  • This is getting ridiculous.

    I wanted to deport him because he committed a terrorist act not because of his name.

    But as someone has just pointed out...there's not much left of him to deport.

    This game of trying to twist peoples' words so you can shout racist at them for instead of coming up with a reasonable counter-argument is incredibly tedious now.

    Denmark are doing it, it's really not that outrageous. And maybe those people killed yesterday would still be alive now (not that actual real people matter when there's a chance to score points off people you don't know on the internet).

    Let's make this very simple so that even you can understand it.

    Mansour was Moroccan. He was granted Danish citizenship as an adult. Denmark revoked his citizenship and expelled him. That is *entirely* different to what you are suggesting which is to deport citizens who having been born here have no prior citizenship anywhere else.

    You can't 'send them back where they came from' when that is Leeds. If British citizens commit crimes in Britain then their treatment is one for Britain to deal with.
  • DougSeal said:

    Then why did you make such a point of his name not sounding "native English". Why not simply say that if at all possible he should have been deported? It's the use of the phrase "native English" that outs you.
    Oh geez more mock outrage, it is literally endless.

    While people are more agitated over trying to find non-existent racism in posts rather than actual people getting machined gunned or beheaded on the streets, any discussion on this is completely pointless.

    It's just never-ending accusations of racism from halfwits.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,738

    The thing with Trump is he can actually be like that e.g. death of RBG. Most of time, Trump is totally predictable with his reactions, but from time to time he can shock with sounding decent.
    The time when he paid Hillary Clinton a genuine compliment stood out in the 2016 debates.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJlnxbO5N2g
  • Carnyx said:

    And yet I have this Gaelic grammar in the bookcase downstairs, so it certainly has its logic!
    Sounds like fake news to me.
  • So PB experts, should how much should we read into the on the day Florida vote tallies posted?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,285

    Yes and he was born in Leeds.
    We seem to have this precise same conversation on PB every few weeks, usually with the same participants.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    OllyT said:

    No what you are doing is wheeling out the Trumpton "Fake News" response to any inconvenient fact. It's so predictable I think I could have guessed how long it would be before one of you came out with it.
    To repeat - again. What I asked was cui bono.

    This could be Trump's supporters. What I said was that, if it was, it would be counter-productive given it has been widely publicised and there is a close race in Florida where there are many Jewish voters.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,487

    This is getting ridiculous.

    I wanted to deport him because he committed a terrorist act not because of his name.

    But as someone has just pointed out...there's not much left of him to deport.

    This game of trying to twist peoples' words so you can shout racist at them for instead of coming up with a reasonable counter-argument is incredibly tedious now.

    Denmark are doing it, it's really not that outrageous. And maybe those people killed yesterday would still be alive now (not that actual real people matter when there's a chance to score points off people you don't know on the internet).
    I posted the below on the previous thread in response to you @DAlexander However I suspect the post is pointless. I couple of days ago I challenged you and @contrarian to actually come out with what you really think about stuff. The pair of you are blatantly holding back on the keyboard but I think most of us can clearly see what your views really are on stuff, but it would be good to really hear it. I suspect most Conservatives on this site would not want to be associated with your views, but we don't really know until you tell us.

    ___________________________________

    Where do you want to draw the line; parents, grandparents, great grandparents .... Are you going to deport people back to Normandy?

    If a person is British they are British. It is of no relevance what their parents are/were.

    Just to give you an example of how silly that is I have a friend whose father is Yugoslavian. She was born here and has never been to the Balkans, can't speak the language, has a Mancunian accent and is 66. What would you do with her? She is about as Yugoslavian as I am.

    Oh and her name is unpronounceable (a lack of vowels) so clearly not British.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Surely Trump can get Darth Vader to do a voiceover for him?
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662

    He didn't write that though – seriously misleading on a betting site.
    Trump won Sumpter 68/29 in 2016 . If he matches that or is close it will mean hes not losing the older voters in the numbers some were suggesting which will also mean he's very likely to hold the state. On the other hand if he is down around 60-62% there that's not a good sign for him statewide. I don't expect him to be much higher than 68 but it will be interesting to see how the NPAs fall as well
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Alternatively in Broward County Florida (pro Dem), turnout has surpassed 2016 and the enormous Dem leading is holding.

    https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=bro

    Does anyone have the url for Miami Dade??
  • I wonder what will happen to the lincoln project after Trump loses?
  • FPT -

    I've just been taking a look at the final POTUS election forecast from Trafalgar Group who, alone, were spot on in 2016 when they predicted a comfortable win for Trump against Clinton.
    As then, they are again claiming to have identified a clear and significant proportion of "shy trumpsters" who, they claim, will deliver a second term in office for the incumbent as a result of him winning 306 ECVs compared with only 232 for Biden.
    The half-hour video accompanying their forecast which is in long, laboured and very muddled is intended to impress the viewer with its so-called methodology - but which I found it anything but impressive.
    Indeed, I was left with the distinct impression that it would be very difficult indeed for Biden to lose this election.
    This is perhaps best demonstrated by 3 states, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin which have been chalked up as being in the Trump camp, despite the fact that they are all considered to be near certain wins for Biden. These three states have a combined total of 46 Electoral College Votes. Deduct this number from the Red team and add it to the Blue team and as if by magic, Biden becomes the winner by 278 votes to 260 votes. If, by some miracle, Trump were to win one of these three states, there are at least another 4 or 5 which Trafalgar show as being Republican wins, but which virtually every other pollster shows the Democrats winning.
    God help the U.S. polling industry is all I would add were Trafalgar, against all the odds, to be proved right yet again

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Barnesian said:

    Yes but for Biden to get the same % lead as Clinton did in 2016, either the unaffiliateds have to split to him at least 60/40 or voters registered as Republicans have to be unfaithful in large numbers. Could be.
    In 2016
    Clinton 553,000
    Trump 261,000

    By party turnoit
    DEM: 446,000
    GOP: 194,000
    UNA: 194,000
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,683

    The thing with Trump is he can actually be like that e.g. death of RBG. Most of time, Trump is totally predictable with his reactions, but from time to time he can shock with sounding decent.
    "Can once in a blue moon shock by sounding decent" - lol.

    Exactly.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    I wonder what will happen to the lincoln project after Trump loses?

    I imagine they'll want to take back the GOP.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,765
    kinabalu said:

    Would this do it? -

    https://www.270towin.com/maps/AJjQW

    Plus 12m down in the PV.
    I've got exactly the same as you, except I've given Ohio to Biden. Here's hoping one of us is right - I don't care which.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Mal557 said:

    Trump won Sumpter 68/29 in 2016 . If he matches that or is close it will mean hes not losing the older voters in the numbers some were suggesting which will also mean he's very likely to hold the state. On the other hand if he is down around 60-62% there that's not a good sign for him statewide. I don't expect him to be much higher than 68 but it will be interesting to see how the NPAs fall as well
    If he's down to 60% in Sumpter then it is all over.
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Spreadex Biden buy is now 311. Still not quite tempting enough for me. I'd love it if the UK spooked it down below 300, then I'll swoop.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    He didn't write that though – seriously misleading on a betting site.
    When you pointed it out @Anabobazina I corrected that I should have said it was early day votes more explicitly.

    However, the sentence i Wrote was "Not so many in-person votes yet but Republicans leading Democrats by registration by nearly 5 to 1"

    So it would have not taken too much to work out I was talking about in-person votes today.

    I don't think you really this is misleading, I think you are just trying to create issues for someone whose political views you disagree with. Rather distasteful and, I would argue, seriously misleading for a betting site.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,058

    Older GOP voters going Dem over covid will presumably still be registered GOP, so we'll have to wait for the count to know whether they've flipped.
    I think that is key in Florida for Biden to win.
  • MrEd said:

    Surely Trump can get Darth Vader to do a voiceover for him?
    You may have thought so but I'd expect Mufasa would be on Biden's side.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    This site will be in absolute turmoil if Trump wins, I can imagine posters needing counselling for PTSD.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,220
    kjh said:

    I posted the below on the previous thread in response to you @DAlexander However I suspect the post is pointless. I couple of days ago I challenged you and @contrarian to actually come out with what you really think about stuff. The pair of you are blatantly holding back on the keyboard but I think most of us can clearly see what your views really are on stuff, but it would be good to really hear it. I suspect most Conservatives on this site would not want to be associated with your views, but we don't really know until you tell us.

    ___________________________________

    Where do you want to draw the line; parents, grandparents, great grandparents .... Are you going to deport people back to Normandy?

    If a person is British they are British. It is of no relevance what their parents are/were.

    Just to give you an example of how silly that is I have a friend whose father is Yugoslavian. She was born here and has never been to the Balkans, can't speak the language, has a Mancunian accent and is 66. What would you do with her? She is about as Yugoslavian as I am.

    Oh and her name is unpronounceable (a lack of vowels) so clearly not British.
    The solution is simple - there is nothing we can do to unpick the horrendous mistake of allowing mass immigration from Islamic countries to Europe, so we will have to put up with the consequences of it.
  • DAlexanderDAlexander Posts: 815
    edited November 2020
    kjh said:



    Where do you want to draw the line; parents, grandparents, great grandparents .... Are you going to deport people back to Normandy?

    If a person is British they are British. It is of no relevance what their parents are/were.

    Just to give you an example of how silly that is I have a friend whose father is Yugoslavian. She was born here and has never been to the Balkans, can't speak the language, has a Mancunian accent and is 66. What would you do with her? She is about as Yugoslavian as I am.

    Oh and her name is unpronounceable (a lack of vowels) so clearly not British.

    This is getting ridiculous.

    What would I do with your friend? Nothing of course as she's not a terrorist!

    I honestly wonder if people are actually capable of reading, I think on certain subjects it is clear that they are not.

    Anyway I'm not going to comment on this anymore as it is cluttering up the site on election day (I tried to confine it to the other thread for this very reason, but of course Topping when he thought he found a gotcha went pasting it on this one too to try and shame me like all good lefties do).
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Trump drifting back out beyond 2.8
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,724

    FPT -

    I've just been taking a look at the final POTUS election forecast from Trafalgar Group who, alone, were spot on in 2016 when they predicted a comfortable win for Trump against Clinton.
    As then, they are again claiming to have identified a clear and significant proportion of "shy trumpsters" who, they claim, will deliver a second term in office for the incumbent as a result of him winning 306 ECVs compared with only 232 for Biden.
    The half-hour video accompanying their forecast which is in long, laboured and very muddled is intended to impress the viewer with its so-called methodology - but which I found it anything but impressive.
    Indeed, I was left with the distinct impression that it would be very difficult indeed for Biden to lose this election.
    This is perhaps best demonstrated by 3 states, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin which have been chalked up as being in the Trump camp, despite the fact that they are all considered to be near certain wins for Biden. These three states have a combined total of 46 Electoral College Votes. Deduct this number from the Red team and add it to the Blue team and as if by magic, Biden becomes the winner by 278 votes to 260 votes. If, by some miracle, Trump were to win one of these three states, there are at least another 4 or 5 which Trafalgar show as being Republican wins, but which virtually every other pollster shows the Democrats winning.
    God help the U.S. polling industry is all I would add were Trafalgar, against all the odds, to be proved right yet again

    I think we need to sit you in a room with a certain poster on here and video your discussion re Trafalgar.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    TimT said:

    I imagine they'll want to take back the GOP.
    Betting tip. If it only takes GOP eight years to recover from this nadir, Liz Cheney stands a chance to be next Republican President. What odds do you have today?

    No wonder Moscow Mitch been looking so uncomfortable the last few weeks, he’s the guy who has to press the button under the table summoning the praetorian guard.
  • kjh said:

    I posted the below on the previous thread in response to you @DAlexander However I suspect the post is pointless. I couple of days ago I challenged you and @contrarian to actually come out with what you really think about stuff. The pair of you are blatantly holding back on the keyboard but I think most of us can clearly see what your views really are on stuff, but it would be good to really hear it. I suspect most Conservatives on this site would not want to be associated with your views, but we don't really know until you tell us.

    ___________________________________

    Where do you want to draw the line; parents, grandparents, great grandparents .... Are you going to deport people back to Normandy?

    If a person is British they are British. It is of no relevance what their parents are/were.

    Just to give you an example of how silly that is I have a friend whose father is Yugoslavian. She was born here and has never been to the Balkans, can't speak the language, has a Mancunian accent and is 66. What would you do with her? She is about as Yugoslavian as I am.

    Oh and her name is unpronounceable (a lack of vowels) so clearly not British.
    How does this policy work for people who are half English half foreign country? Is it six months in each, do we split them in two, or seeing as we seem to be going back a hundred years or more in outlook, does the dads nationality take priority?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,058
    Alistair said:

    In 2016
    Clinton 553,000
    Trump 261,000

    By party turnoit
    DEM: 446,000
    GOP: 194,000
    UNA: 194,000
    Illustrates my point. Assume the UNA split 50/50 and add 97,000 to each of the DEM and GOP numbers and compare with 2016.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,450

    So PB experts, should how much should we read into the on the day Florida vote tallies posted?

    That right now, Florida is tighter than a duck's arse.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,483

    Trump drifting back out beyond 2.8

    Yes, this morning was fish in a barrel stuff.
    Closed some of my hedges for a profit & will try to re-hedge later on.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,483

    This site will be in absolute turmoil if Trump wins, I can imagine posters needing counselling for PTSD.

    I will be mildly surprised, and deeply disappointed in the US public.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,082
    Carnyx said:

    That's only becausde your eddication isn't broad enough. You can pronounce French. What's wrong with the Gaelic?
    Especially as linguistic history suggests that French is simply Latin with a celtic accent.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,487

    How does this policy work for people who are half English half foreign country? Is it six months in each, do we split them in two, or seeing as we seem to be going back a hundred years or more in outlook, does the dads nationality take priority?
    I think we go for the King Solomon solution. That will teach the bastards for being born half British.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,906
    MrEd said:

    Surely Trump can get Darth Vader to do a voiceover for him?
    Or Jabba the Trump.
  • Nigelb said:

    I will be mildly surprised, and deeply disappointed in the US public.
    Most posters seem to put his chances at 5-25%. Mild surprise is the right outcome in terms of probabilities, very few think he has no chance even if they make Biden extremely good value.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,450

    George MacDonald Fraser pointed out that no-one familiar with the Scottish border would have been surprised by the way Nixon behaved. The Nixons were exported to Ireland, en-masse, as part of the shutting down of the border feuding system. Their reputation was somewhat.... er... tricky?
    The Johnsons, as well.
  • No, his piece to camera was decent. Shockingly so for Trump.

    https://youtu.be/knlJWu815C0
    Fair enough on that one, that is respectful.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,220
    Went to my favourite cafe for an omelette earlier - while we were sitting there an old girl came in, must have been in her eighties. The waitress brought her a cup of coffee over before she had ordered so obv a regular. She chatted with her for about ten mins, mask on. I cant help thinking that a winter lockdown will be very bad for those who don't get out much and go to places like that for a bit of company.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,058
    Sean_F said:

    That right now, Florida is tighter than a duck's arse.
    On current sparse county data I'm calling it for Trump. But on Betfair the money has been going on Biden who has moved from 2.44 to 2.36 in the last half hour.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,526
    edited November 2020
    MrEd said:

    Surely Trump can get Darth Vader to do a voiceover for him?
    "Several transmissions were beamed to this ship from Democrat spies. I want to know what happened to the ballots they sent you."
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,487

    This is getting ridiculous.

    What would I do with your friend? Nothing of course as she's not a terrorist!

    I honestly wonder if people are actually capable of reading, I think on certain subjects it is clear that they are not.

    Anyway I'm not going to comment on this anymore as it is cluttering up the site on election day (I tried to confine it to the other thread for this very reason, but of course Topping when he thought he found a gotcha went pasting it on this one too to try and shame me like all good lefties do).
    OK she has just blown something up. Now what are you going to do with her?

    See you didn't respond to a frank disclosure of your views.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    What are we expecting total turnout to be in the likes of Sumter County? It's at more than 81% of eligible voters already!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,371
    edited November 2020
    As only Corbyn’s luck would have it, he in fact spent the best part of an hour in the company of local activist Stephen Smith, who is currently also suspended by the Labour Party and under investigation after being accused of “antisemitism” on social media. Only days ago Smith shared a cartoon of the Israeli Prime Minister flying an IDF jet which was firing “defamation” missiles at Corbyn.

    https://order-order.com/2020/11/03/holidaying-corbyn-hangs-out-with-nudist-suspended-from-labour-party-over-antisemitism/

    Now my understanding of the rules are you can leave a higher Tier to a lower Tier to go on holiday.l (but shouldn't make unnecessary journies and especially not to a lower tier in your normal day to day life...yes its dumb as )..but it is very clear you should spend that holiday with just your own household.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662

    FPT -

    I've just been taking a look at the final POTUS election forecast from Trafalgar Group who, alone, were spot on in 2016 when they predicted a comfortable win for Trump against Clinton.
    As then, they are again claiming to have identified a clear and significant proportion of "shy trumpsters" who, they claim, will deliver a second term in office for the incumbent as a result of him winning 306 ECVs compared with only 232 for Biden.
    The half-hour video accompanying their forecast which is in long, laboured and very muddled is intended to impress the viewer with its so-called methodology - but which I found it anything but impressive.
    Indeed, I was left with the distinct impression that it would be very difficult indeed for Biden to lose this election.
    This is perhaps best demonstrated by 3 states, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin which have been chalked up as being in the Trump camp, despite the fact that they are all considered to be near certain wins for Biden. These three states have a combined total of 46 Electoral College Votes. Deduct this number from the Red team and add it to the Blue team and as if by magic, Biden becomes the winner by 278 votes to 260 votes. If, by some miracle, Trump were to win one of these three states, there are at least another 4 or 5 which Trafalgar show as being Republican wins, but which virtually every other pollster shows the Democrats winning.
    God help the U.S. polling industry is all I would add were Trafalgar, against all the odds, to be proved right yet again

    If Trafalgar had made their case based on Trump losing WI and MI but holding everything else and PA being the genuine tipping point. I could have given them some credence. However simply saying that Trump will overturn a 7/8/9% defecit in the other two states 'because they found more shy trumpers' is just making it up. PA is within the realms of possibly staying red, I dont believe either of the other two are
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Barnesian said:

    Illustrates my point. Assume the UNA split 50/50 and add 97,000 to each of the DEM and GOP numbers and compare with 2016.
    Quite a jump with no change in GOP Now reading
    DEM: 459,000
    GOP: 194,000
    UNA: 209,000
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,483
    .

    Fair enough on that one, that is respectful.
    It gives that appearance.
    Since every word that issues from his mouth is more likely a lie than not, I remain unconvinced by its sincerity.
  • isam said:

    The solution is simple - there is nothing we can do to unpick the horrendous mistake of allowing mass immigration from Islamic countries to Europe, so we will have to put up with the consequences of it.
    Education, education, education. The more educated people are the more clearly they can see the myths of organised religion contain many falsehoods and that the fundamentalist versions that seek to impose their versions on the rest of the world are extremely dangerous.
This discussion has been closed.