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The battle for Florida: Where UK punters are betting that the polls are wrong – politicalbetting.com

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  • OK, be hopeful and resume normal life. Do you think that will halt Covid-19 and save the economy? Halting Covid-19 will save the economy more than letting it rip.
    Oh come on how the hell can you defeat a virus? Its not worked so far , maybe if we all libe in a hermit state for years on end possibly but its going to be the end of our way of live for a virus that is no more deadly than flu- 1600 people dies yesterday or whihc 1300 died of something other than covid 19
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,522

    A vaccine is the only viable answer in the long run. Russia and Venezuela claim to have one!
    That's encouraging.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570

    Foxy mentioned that the R number has dropped sharply in the NE, not sure about the NW.
    Problem is the data is all over the place. King's say the R rate is 1.1 for England; Imperial say 1.6

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134

    Looks obvious that it's worse than the projected worst case. Yet John Redwood doubting this on R4.
    tbf it's earlier than the scenario, rather than noticeably worse. Why the scenario included that strange plateau in October isn't clear?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    F1: first and last practice starts in just over 10 minutes. Weird having three races in one country, but, then, it's been an unusual year.

    Apart from Hamilton winning to a boringly predictable extent, of course.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    I remain unconvinced by the use of this stat: deaths with a + test within 28 days. I defer to ONS who are the experts, but it doesn't sit right with me.

    How many of these people actually died from the virus, rather than something else with a + test?
    I wonder about the fact that on the dashboard site they are STILL quoting the +60 day figure. Almost as if they are unhappy that they were forced to change it and still might be relying on it for much detailed work...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,570
    Barnard Castle now trending.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    This is how far through the looking glass we are. Alastair Fucking Campbell has a point...

    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1322460335102742528

    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1322460336545538048
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited October 2020

    Foxy mentioned that the R number has dropped sharply in the NE, not sure about the NW.
    Official R number in the North West is currently 1.0-1.2. The lowest in the country.

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk#:~:text=The R number range for,as of 7 August 2020.&text=The R number range for,as of 31 July 2020.&text=The R number range for,as of 24 July 2020.

    The evidence of R seems to suggest that the Tier system is working. It's not surprising it's highest in areas where restrictions are lowest. I'm sure somebody will explain why this is wrong. Probably quote that Imperial College "study" or something....
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    The likes of Redwood would have advocated appeasement in the 1930s.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,291

    OK, be hopeful and resume normal life. Do you think that will halt Covid-19 and save the economy? Halting Covid-19 will save the economy more than letting it rip.
    It is an awful situation to be in, both medically and economically.

    I don't think that schools can shut completely again, and sending university students home is a recipie for spread. Rates seem to have peaked in the students. The hospitality sector is on its last legs already, as are the performing arts. There will be more retail closures coming, as the end of furlough coincides with the peak of this wave.

    Test and Trace is crap, but at current prevalence rates is irrelevant anyway. Speedy testing and isolation is as much as we can do, until the wave passes.

    In the hospitals we have plans prepared, PPE stocks seem adequate, staff are now trained and experienced, so mortality rates are about half what they were.

    Personally, I would stick to the Tier system, and recommend no non essential interpersonal contact or travel domestically or internationally. WFH as much as possible and have a Zoom Christmas planned.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235
    Captain Foresight trending on twitter.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,522
    Scott_xP said:

    This is how far through the looking glass we are. Alastair Fucking Campbell has a point...

    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1322460335102742528

    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1322460336545538048

    "Hello Pot, said the Kettle.'
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151

    Barnard Castle now trending.

    Police and the Crown Prosecution Service have been handed a 225-page dossier urging them to investigate Dominic Cummings for allegedly perverting the course of justice, in relation to a statement about his journeys to the north-east of England at the height of the pandemic.

    The former regional chief prosecutor Nazir Afzal said Cummings’ claims during a press conference in Downing Street’s rose garden on 25 May affected the course of justice as they were made as Durham police’s investigation into his behaviour was already under way.

    Afzal’s lawyers gave extensive details of the allegation in the dossier sent on Friday to Durham police, the Metropolitan police and Max Hill, the director of public prosecutions, and his staff at the CPS.

    They claimed the legal test for such a prosecution had been met.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/30/dossier-alleges-cummings-may-have-perverted-course-of-justice-in-account-of-lockdown-trip
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    I think its pretty obvious that covid-19 is seasonal and there is not a lot that can be done about it. What did the first lockdown achieve that the passing of winter did not? Cases were already flattening before the first lockdown. unless we feel its good to lock the country down permanently then covid 19 will be here in winter and not so much in summer (just like flu).
    As for hospitals being full - well they always are in a bad flu year in winter. Surely peoples memories are not that goldfish like to not remember this?

    The effects of a lockdown will be (have been) far greater than the effects of covid-19. Sweden are not seeing the case levels the other European countries are now becasue they did not get obsessed and delusiional about being able to defeat it in the first place

    Almost all of what you have written is nonsense. There was no levelling off in the case rate pre lockdown.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    Pulpstar said:

    Captain Foresight trending on twitter.

    PMQs should be an away win this week, except that the clown will try to spend most of his replies wibbling about Corbyn.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    edited October 2020
    Jonathan said:

    The likes of Redwood would have advocated appeasement in the 1930s.

    As they did, as I recall?

    From the history, I hasten to add.

    Churchill faced repeated challenges for deselection from his own Tory members in....Epping.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 662
    Looking good for the Dems in Nevada. Though Jon Ralston likes to build a narrative so people dont get complacent, he's a good source for how things are going in the state. To be honest I didn't expect Trump to flip the state but there had been some nervous moments but I suspect the state will increase Clintons lead from 2016 now.
    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,291

    I remain unconvinced by the use of this stat: deaths with a + test within 28 days. I defer to ONS who are the experts, but it doesn't sit right with me.

    How many of these people actually died from the virus, rather than something else with a + test?
    Pretty much all of them. Possibly 1 or 2 got run over by a bus on the way home from hospital, but nearly everyone dying within a month of covid, whether from respiratory, renal, or vascular cause is as a consequence of the virus. It is much more than a viral chest infection, but rather a systemic infection that triggers in some people a severe inflammatory and vascular response.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited October 2020
    Mal557 said:

    Looking good for the Dems in Nevada. Though Jon Ralston likes to build a narrative so people dont get complacent, he's a good source for how things are going in the state. To be honest I didn't expect Trump to flip the state but there had been some nervous moments but I suspect the state will increase Clintons lead from 2016 now.
    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3

    Yes, Trump whining about “fraud” there is a good sign that he has lost NV
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134

    Almost all of what you have written is nonsense. There was no levelling off in the case rate pre lockdown.
    Nevertheless asking what the respective contributions of the government's formal measures, people's informal precautions, and a spell of almost continuous warm sunny weather, in stemming the rise in case numbers would be a good question.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    IanB2 said:

    Nevertheless asking what the respective contributions of the government's formal measures, people's informal precautions, and a spell of almost continuous warm sunny weather, in stemming the rise in case numbers would be a good question.
    Letting people go on foreign holidays in the summer was a huge mistake, as was not throwing Cummings overboard after the Barnard Castle incident
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,522
    Foxy said:

    It is an awful situation to be in, both medically and economically.

    I don't think that schools can shut completely again, and sending university students home is a recipie for spread. Rates seem to have peaked in the students. The hospitality sector is on its last legs already, as are the performing arts. There will be more retail closures coming, as the end of furlough coincides with the peak of this wave.

    Test and Trace is crap, but at current prevalence rates is irrelevant anyway. Speedy testing and isolation is as much as we can do, until the wave passes.

    In the hospitals we have plans prepared, PPE stocks seem adequate, staff are now trained and experienced, so mortality rates are about half what they were.

    Personally, I would stick to the Tier system, and recommend no non essential interpersonal contact or travel domestically or internationally. WFH as much as possible and have a Zoom Christmas planned.
    I think that is very good advice.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Scott_xP said:

    This is how far through the looking glass we are. Alastair Fucking Campbell has a point...

    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1322460335102742528

    https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1322460336545538048

    On the plus side none of the scientists have been bullied into suicide so far.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    Well, things are going absolutely swimmingly:-

    1. A second wave likely more deadly than the first.
    2. An economic recession, if we’re lucky, a depression if not.
    3. The Oompa Loompa re-elected next week (I very much fear) or him finagling his way out of defeat.
    4. An exit from a Brexit transition into God knows what, for which few are prepared.
    5. Islamist nutters slaughtering the innocent.

    Have I missed anything?

    Is there any joy to be had anywhere?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    FPT
    CarlottaVance said:

    » show previous quotes
    More than go to Spain?

    Pre-COVID Spain held 7 out of the top 10 holiday destinations:

    https://www.glasgowlive.co.uk/news/glasgow-news/top-10-holiday-destinations-scottish-13854857

    @Carnyx
    These halfwitted bitter and twisted losers just want to whinge about Scotland and punt their odious "it is anti English" mantra. Normally they would be laughing at thick poor Scots going to Blackpool and calling it a dump but it now suits them to champion it. Despicable odious creature and pretends to be Scottish as well.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    That headline makes no sense. corbyn wasn't punished because of what the report says, he was punished for defying his party leader in a way that undermined the party's response to the report.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,151
    So having leaked the plan to the papers, it's possible there might be a vote in Parliament on the lockdown, with another huge Tory rebellion.

    Luckily for BoZo, Labour will vote for it...
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,033

    Oh come on how the hell can you defeat a virus? Its not worked so far , maybe if we all libe in a hermit state for years on end possibly but its going to be the end of our way of live for a virus that is no more deadly than flu- 1600 people dies yesterday or whihc 1300 died of something other than covid 19
    The way to defeat it is to lower the spread until a vaccine or treatment is available.
    If it is let rip it will grow exponentially (look that up) and people will isolate through fear rather than because they were told to, but it will be too late and hospitals will be overwhelmed. The economy will suffer more if we take your approach. The flu is much less contagious than Covid, you surely know that?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    England reaping what it sowed, they voted for a useless clown to run the country and he is fulfilling their wishes with a circus.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831

    Indeed. But my allowing Rasputin to leak to selected journos on a Fri night that there will be a national lockdown announced on monday the "administration" has guaranteed tons of young people will be out this weekend enjoying one last party before Xmas.
    "allowing"

    I doubt he feels the need to ask for permission.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,339
    Scott_xP said:

    So having leaked the plan to the papers, it's possible there might be a vote in Parliament on the lockdown, with another huge Tory rebellion.

    Luckily for BoZo, Labour will vote for it...

    That will make the Brady Bunch very angry indeed. They aren't too bright, soJohnson needs to modify his tier system, add 3.5 and ensure somewhere in England remains open to claim no national lockdown. No national lockdown, no need for parliamentary voting. Brady Bunch happy.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    John Apter, chairman of the Police Federation of England and Wales, which represents 120,000 officers, criticised the briefing of coronavirus measures to the media, claiming it increased pressure on the emergency services.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    dixiedean said:

    Getting a bit heated. We're headed for lockdown. Hopefully everyone has spent time preparing their mind for what is to come.
    Peace and blessings to you all.

    Honestly it doesn't make much of a change for me, shocking I know, but it's still massively depressing even though I always knew there would be a second wave. Knowing you can walk out the door at any time makes a big impact even when you don't do it.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    New thread
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,542
    Alistair said:

    So Nate had a chat with Cahaly and has put Trafalgar's polls back into his polling average.

    Let's just do a little sense check. Trafalgar has unleashed a veritable flood of state polls with field work date from 24th to the 29th of October.

    They have ~1050 respondents and a response rate of ~1.4% . The per poll the number of contacts necessary for the response size was (and the dates attempted)

    Arizona: 74766 - 25-28
    Florida: 77714 - 25-28
    Nevada: 74744 - 28-29
    Michigan: 75035 - 25-28
    Minnesota: 75000 - 24-25
    Pennsylvania: 78540 - 24-25
    Wisconsin: 75138 - 24-25

    Assuming even contact attempts per day that gives

    24th - 114,339
    25th - 171,218
    26th - 56,878
    27th - 56,879
    28th - 94,251
    29th - 37,372

    The 25th is certainly a very nigh number of contact attempts. Very high. Impressively high. Trafalgar must be a very large and well resourced polling outfit to manage so many contact attempts in a day. Assuming an 8-to-8 window that was almost 4 contact attempts per second

    If a person can do 50 calls/hour (less than 1 successful call, 49 plus fails) that needs just under 300 people on the phone, if 25 calls/hour you are looking at just under 600 people. This doesn't take into account loo and coffee breaks which for 10 minutes loses 5 - 10 calls per hour.

    Possible for Trafalgar? Outsourced?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107

    Go before the students get up! Do your shopping before midday ;)

    Seriously though, the lockdown will not kill the virus off, it will still be there, still infecting people. And even during lockdown, there will still be people on the bus when you go to do your shopping.

    So what are you going to do during lockdown? Starve? No, you will take your chances as carefully as can be managed
    Order it online, we have had to shield since beginning and we just order everything online , I have been to shops 3 times at most for 5 minutes and a couple of times for a takeaway. Other than hospital appointments that is it since beginning of the year. Far better than being dead.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    IshmaelZ said:

    On the plus side none of the scientists have been bullied into suicide so far.
    Great point.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831
    So, what with Trump's chances fading, is he going to come up with one last throw of the dice? Declare a Covid state of emergency to halt the election? Have the FBI arrest Biden for something? Invade somewhere?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    LadyG said:

    It may be too late

    https://twitter.com/brittpettibone/status/1322239997542604801?s=21
    They need to nip it in the bud, I would have them on the next plane back to Turkey.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,601
    alex_ said:

    Official R number in the North West is currently 1.0-1.2. The lowest in the country.

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk#:~:text=The R number range for,as of 7 August 2020.&text=The R number range for,as of 31 July 2020.&text=The R number range for,as of 24 July 2020.

    The evidence of R seems to suggest that the Tier system is working. It's not surprising it's highest in areas where restrictions are lowest. I'm sure somebody will explain why this is wrong. Probably quote that Imperial College "study" or something....
    If it's working it no longer matters as every bit of reporting says it's not.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    Jonathan said:

    We’re so fucked. No two ways about it. Things won’t get better until the men in grey suits wake from their slumber and get Boris out of number 10.

    What great Tory talent waits in the wings. I see only a field full of donkeys and three legged ones at that. Heaven help us if it is Govid20
  • malcolmg said:

    They need to nip it in the bud, I would have them on the next plane back to Turkey.
    The tweeter is the promoter of the terrorist who killed 51 in NZ.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,678
    Cyclefree said:

    Well, things are going absolutely swimmingly:-

    1. A second wave likely more deadly than the first.
    2. An economic recession, if we’re lucky, a depression if not.
    3. The Oompa Loompa re-elected next week (I very much fear) or him finagling his way out of defeat.
    4. An exit from a Brexit transition into God knows what, for which few are prepared.
    5. Islamist nutters slaughtering the innocent.

    Have I missed anything?

    Is there any joy to be had anywhere?

    The weather - just going into a nice sunny season?

    Oh.

    I assuime Johnson will portray his measures as "saving Christmas for the nation". And because that goes with the grain of what people think is needed, it will be quite popular for a while. Plus the general atmosphere will let him get away with any old deal with the EU (if you think he cares about the details I have a (garden) bridge you might like to buy). So he should feel quite cheerful by this time next week.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    Christ Almighty, she’s either stunningly ignorant or doing it deliberately. Four sentences, for specific statements, all wrong.

    - It’s not flattening everywhere
    - Deaths from respiratory infections are up on the year
    - Lockdowns are the only thing we’ve done yet that have definitely reduced the virus spread
    - Viruses haven’t been free to do what they like since the mid eighteen-hundreds or earlier; her statement ignores two hundred years of increasing knowledge and capability.

    Oh, it’s the woman who was loudly encouraging students to spread the disease. Such a surprise.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,678
    malcolmg said:

    They need to nip it in the bud, I would have them on the next plane back to Turkey.
    Just a linguistic note - the article is in the subjunctive and essentially means "It is reported that" - that's why there's a question mark in the title.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,542
    So extrapolating from previous weeks on Worldometer I predicted on here for cases in America 93K for Thurs and 100K for Friday. I looked at it because I thought the 100K landmark looked likely and might be a critical landmark just before the election.

    Actual numbers were 91.8K and 101.4K.

    To be honest it wasn't difficult because the trend for Thurs and Fri was pretty consistent.

    Sat figure is usually quite high but always below Thurs and Fri. It is also less consistent sometimes being close to Fri figure, sometimes considerably less and obviously subsequent days will be down before the election being Sun - Tues.

    It will be interesting to see what Sat will be and how newsworthy the huge Thur and Fri jumps are and the breaking of the 100K with Trump still claiming it is getting better.
This discussion has been closed.