Thousands of postal ballots have, apparently, gone missing in Pennsylvania.
I don't think the GOP realise that far from making America great again, they are a laughing stock to the world and little better than the kind of shitshow which Trump derided in Africa.
It's very odd, as there's evidence that both schools and universities are major spreaders. I can see why it's hard to close primary schools, but secondaries and universities should be able to semi-function online, and shouldn't be protected while almost everything else shuts down.
Because the government has already committed to keeping them open come what may, even though the evidence now says we should close them first.
.
What evidence? The scientific picture is very confused (not unusual for a new disease). I have not seen any clear-cut evidence.
Ceredigion has two universities within its boundaries (Aberystwyth, Lampeter) & one of the lowest COVID rates in the UK. So, it is easy to find counter-examples.
There were quite a few cases early doors at Aberystwyth. Gone quiet there now. Are cases being reported where students actually live?
They are reported at the address with which they are registered with a GP. Rates of registering with a GP at your university address vs just staying with your home GP vary considerably by university (and, to some extent, gender).
Out of sheer curiosity, what happens if the system encounters someone who doesn't have a GP?
I say out of curiosity - I don't think I'm registered with a GP anywhere - I was a fairly small kid last time I had cause to go and see a shrink. I had to have a shard of metal picked out of my eye at A&E some time ago, and my lack of a GP caused a certain amount of administrative difficulty, but they seemed to be able to work round it.
I thought I wasnt registered anywhere as havent seen a GP in about twenty years. When I did need A&E once, it also caused admin difficulty and they very much wanted to track it down. Turns out I was still registered to the one from 20 years ago, and presumably they get finance based on that. Now I keep that address (and my NHS number) on my phone just in case to hopefully save the admin time.
That Fox poll was pretty accurate on the PV last time. Must have cheered up the Donald.
I can't believe Trump is going to win. But he is stubbornly holding on to his vote. Depends how lumpy Biden's vote is. If Biden is racking up huge totals in California and New York and coming a really close second in Texas and Florida, it could still be an EC nail-biter in the aftermath of voting.
But a Trump win requires special pleading. Although, then you think back to the UK's 2017 exit poll... And I think there was at least one Israeli election where the result on the day utterly confounded the polling - polling that said Netanyahu was toast. Something like an 8% difference.
When the inevitable public inquiry comes out the government will get a lot of leeway for their actions in the spring, but none for their failure to heed the SAGE warnings in early autumn. Both rightly so imo.
That Fox poll was pretty accurate on the PV last time. Must have cheered up the Donald.
I can't believe Trump is going to win. But he is stubbornly holding on to his vote. Depends how lumpy Biden's vote is. If Biden is racking up huge totals in California and New York and coming a really close second in Texas and Florida, it could still be an EC nail-biter in the aftermath of voting.
But a Trump win requires special pleading. Although, then you think back to the UK's 2017 exit poll... And I think there was at least one Israeli election where the result on the day utterly confounded the polling - polling that said Netanyahu was toast. Something like an 8% difference.
I think there are three reasons to think that the polling isn't wrong this time:
1. Women are making up 55-57% of votes cast. That's a massive gender gap, and one Trump will struggle to overcome. 2. Polling errors tend to oscillate, and most pollsters have corrected (perhaps over corrected) for their undersampling of high school educated voters in 2016 3. "Social desirability" can usually be deduced by different responses between online and phone
Just a reminder that the Government is urging all businesses to prepare properly for the end of the transition period on Jan 1st.... whilst likely telling them to shut.
Thousands of postal ballots have, apparently, gone missing in Pennsylvania.
I don't think the GOP realise that far from making America great again, they are a laughing stock to the world and little better than the kind of shitshow which Trump derided in Africa.
That Fox poll was pretty accurate on the PV last time. Must have cheered up the Donald.
I can't believe Trump is going to win. But he is stubbornly holding on to his vote. Depends how lumpy Biden's vote is. If Biden is racking up huge totals in California and New York and coming a really close second in Texas and Florida, it could still be an EC nail-biter in the aftermath of voting.
But a Trump win requires special pleading. Although, then you think back to the UK's 2017 exit poll... And I think there was at least one Israeli election where the result on the day utterly confounded the polling - polling that said Netanyahu was toast. Something like an 8% difference.
Macron/ Le Pen had a chunky error. The Michigan Dem primary from a few years back was also a miss.
Thousands of postal ballots have, apparently, gone missing in Pennsylvania.
I don't think the GOP realise that far from making America great again, they are a laughing stock to the world and little better than the kind of shitshow which Trump derided in Africa.
Do you have Clickbait down as dangerous, devastating, or defanged ?
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/30/imagining-post-president-trump-433704 ... In interviews, historians, government legal experts, national security leaders and people close to the administration have a prediction that will disquiet his critics: The Trump Era is unlikely to end when the Trump presidency ends. They envision a post-presidency as disruptive and norm-busting as his presidency has been—one that could make his successor’s job much harder. They outline a picture of a man who might formally leave office only to establish himself as the president-for-life amid his own bubble of admirers—controlling Republican politics and sowing chaos in the U.S. and around the world long after he’s officially left office.
“Can he continue to make people not trust our institutions? Can he throw monkey wrenches into delicate negotiations? Absolutely,” one former Trump administration official says. “He can be a tool. He’ll be somewhere between dangerous and devastating on that extent.”...
Just a reminder that the Government is urging all businesses to prepare properly for the end of the transition period on Jan 1st.... whilst likely telling them to shut.
And not telling them what to prepare for of course!
When the inevitable public inquiry comes out the government will get a lot of leeway for their actions in the spring, but none for their failure to heed the SAGE warnings in early autumn. Both rightly so imo.
It will also ask why on Earth we didn’t extend the Brexit transition by a year to help business cope
Thousands of postal ballots have, apparently, gone missing in Pennsylvania.
I don't think the GOP realise that far from making America great again, they are a laughing stock to the world and little better than the kind of shitshow which Trump derided in Africa.
Do you have Clickbait down as dangerous, devastating, or defanged ?
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/30/imagining-post-president-trump-433704 ... In interviews, historians, government legal experts, national security leaders and people close to the administration have a prediction that will disquiet his critics: The Trump Era is unlikely to end when the Trump presidency ends. They envision a post-presidency as disruptive and norm-busting as his presidency has been—one that could make his successor’s job much harder. They outline a picture of a man who might formally leave office only to establish himself as the president-for-life amid his own bubble of admirers—controlling Republican politics and sowing chaos in the U.S. and around the world long after he’s officially left office.
“Can he continue to make people not trust our institutions? Can he throw monkey wrenches into delicate negotiations? Absolutely,” one former Trump administration official says. “He can be a tool. He’ll be somewhere between dangerous and devastating on that extent.”...
It doesnt matter if its Trump or not, he is just a sad reflection of the social media age. Hundreds of millions of people already believe balderdash because that is what their social media tells them, it will shortly be billions of people. To get their vote leaders will tend to increasingly lie and distort the truth Trumpy style.
Thousands of postal ballots have, apparently, gone missing in Pennsylvania.
I don't think the GOP realise that far from making America great again, they are a laughing stock to the world and little better than the kind of shitshow which Trump derided in Africa.
Do you have Clickbait down as dangerous, devastating, or defanged ?
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/30/imagining-post-president-trump-433704 ... In interviews, historians, government legal experts, national security leaders and people close to the administration have a prediction that will disquiet his critics: The Trump Era is unlikely to end when the Trump presidency ends. They envision a post-presidency as disruptive and norm-busting as his presidency has been—one that could make his successor’s job much harder. They outline a picture of a man who might formally leave office only to establish himself as the president-for-life amid his own bubble of admirers—controlling Republican politics and sowing chaos in the U.S. and around the world long after he’s officially left office.
“Can he continue to make people not trust our institutions? Can he throw monkey wrenches into delicate negotiations? Absolutely,” one former Trump administration official says. “He can be a tool. He’ll be somewhere between dangerous and devastating on that extent.”...
When the inevitable public inquiry comes out the government will get a lot of leeway for their actions in the spring, but none for their failure to heed the SAGE warnings in early autumn. Both rightly so imo.
It will also ask why on Earth we didn’t extend the Brexit transition by a year to help business cope
I disagree on that one. No deal Brexit is a stupid idea, but if you are going to implement it, the best time is actually when the economy is in lockdown and businesses are getting massive state grants.
Thousands of postal ballots have, apparently, gone missing in Pennsylvania.
I don't think the GOP realise that far from making America great again, they are a laughing stock to the world and little better than the kind of shitshow which Trump derided in Africa.
Do you have Clickbait down as dangerous, devastating, or defanged ?
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/30/imagining-post-president-trump-433704 ... In interviews, historians, government legal experts, national security leaders and people close to the administration have a prediction that will disquiet his critics: The Trump Era is unlikely to end when the Trump presidency ends. They envision a post-presidency as disruptive and norm-busting as his presidency has been—one that could make his successor’s job much harder. They outline a picture of a man who might formally leave office only to establish himself as the president-for-life amid his own bubble of admirers—controlling Republican politics and sowing chaos in the U.S. and around the world long after he’s officially left office.
“Can he continue to make people not trust our institutions? Can he throw monkey wrenches into delicate negotiations? Absolutely,” one former Trump administration official says. “He can be a tool. He’ll be somewhere between dangerous and devastating on that extent.”...
And before that he gets two and a half months of transition time to wreak revenge. Ridiculous system.
Just a reminder that the Government is urging all businesses to prepare properly for the end of the transition period on Jan 1st.... whilst likely telling them to shut.
And not telling them what to prepare for of course!
Just a reminder that the Government is urging all businesses to prepare properly for the end of the transition period on Jan 1st.... whilst likely telling them to shut.
Indeed - and it isn't telling businesses what the arrangements will be after transition. Why would they need to know...
Just a reminder that the Government is urging all businesses to prepare properly for the end of the transition period on Jan 1st.... whilst likely telling them to shut.
Indeed - and it isn't telling businesses what the arrangements will be after transition. Why would they need to know...
Stop remoaning! How dare you question the one true path.
A friend assured my wife last weekend that doctors in Germany get more money if someone dies from covid, before somewhat spluttering to a halt when he remembered my wife is a doctor treating covid patients...
(SPOILER: she doesn't get any more money, sadly)
Another friend was complaining about mask rules and told me he would rather go to prison than wear a mask. Okaaaaay. But then he added "it's just like what happened to the jews under the nazis"
This virus is definitely having a bad effect on people's brains.
Mr. Jonathan, I fear you overestimate the decision-making capabilities and intellectual prowess of the PM if you think he isn't capable of repeatedly making similar mistakes.
Edited extra bit F1: because there's only one practice session this weekend it's 90 rather than 60 minutes long.
When the inevitable public inquiry comes out the government will get a lot of leeway for their actions in the spring, but none for their failure to heed the SAGE warnings in early autumn. Both rightly so imo.
It will also ask why on Earth we didn’t extend the Brexit transition by a year to help business cope
I disagree on that one. No deal Brexit is a stupid idea, but if you are going to implement it, the best time is actually when the economy is in lockdown and businesses are getting massive state grants.
What massive state grants? Furlough ends today. The replacement scheme is far less generous.
The government wants us to put us all back into a March lockdown situation, apparently, but without the same financial support as in March. And then wants us to prepare for the unknown in a little over 6 weeks time.
Mr. Jonathan, I fear you overestimate the decision-making capabilities and intellectual prowess of the PM if you think he isn't capable of repeatedly making similar mistakes.
Edited extra bit F1: because there's only one practice session this weekend it's 90 rather than 60 minutes long.
We have a very, major problem with this government. Like tyrants through history they believe they can talk themselves out of any situation. If you believe in yourself enough you can do anything.
Sadly economics, physics and biology say otherwise.
Does that "capacity" include all those unused Nightengales?
If you read the full report on the BBC website rather than the tweet, you'll see that it does assume the Nightingale hospitals are used (and that all non-urgent procedures are cancelled).
And it's also worth considering that staff may be fully occupied before all the beds are filled. Particularly if significant numbers of staff are ill themselves or self-isolating.
When the inevitable public inquiry comes out the government will get a lot of leeway for their actions in the spring, but none for their failure to heed the SAGE warnings in early autumn. Both rightly so imo.
It will also ask why on Earth we didn’t extend the Brexit transition by a year to help business cope
I disagree on that one. No deal Brexit is a stupid idea, but if you are going to implement it, the best time is actually when the economy is in lockdown and businesses are getting massive state grants.
What massive state grants? Furlough ends today. The replacement scheme is far less generous.
The government wants us to put us all back into a March lockdown situation, apparently, but without the same financial support as in March. And then wants us to prepare for the unknown in a little over 6 weeks time.
As always, qui bono?
A two week lockdown would not have resulted in the elimination of the disease. A one month lockdown won't result in the elimination of the disease. Nothing is going to turn up in that four week period that won't prevent demands that (a) the lockdown be extended or (b) it gets reintroduced.
Does that "capacity" include all those unused Nightengales?
If you read the full report on the BBC website rather than the tweet, you'll see that it does assume the Nightingale hospitals are used (and that all non-urgent procedures are cancelled).
And it's also worth considering that staff may be fully occupied before all the beds are filled. Particularly if significant numbers of staff are ill themselves or self-isolating.
When the inevitable public inquiry comes out the government will get a lot of leeway for their actions in the spring, but none for their failure to heed the SAGE warnings in early autumn. Both rightly so imo.
It will also ask why on Earth we didn’t extend the Brexit transition by a year to help business cope
I disagree on that one. No deal Brexit is a stupid idea, but if you are going to implement it, the best time is actually when the economy is in lockdown and businesses are getting massive state grants.
What massive state grants? Furlough ends today. The replacement scheme is far less generous.
The government wants us to put us all back into a March lockdown situation, apparently, but without the same financial support as in March. And then wants us to prepare for the unknown in a little over 6 weeks time.
If the government is closing businesses the support is 67% of wages up to just over £2k per month. In addition many businesses have received business rates relief and grants, local or national.
Whenever we move to a stricter lockdown, the Treasury has increased the state support for businesses, I would expect them to do so again as we move into a prolonged lockdown.
Does that "capacity" include all those unused Nightengales?
If you read the full report on the BBC website rather than the tweet, you'll see that it does assume the Nightingale hospitals are used (and that all non-urgent procedures are cancelled).
And it's also worth considering that staff may be fully occupied before all the beds are filled. Particularly if significant numbers of staff are ill themselves or self-isolating.
Extrapolating this graph is painful to see, but it looks like where we are going.
Thousands of postal ballots have, apparently, gone missing in Pennsylvania.
I don't think the GOP realise that far from making America great again, they are a laughing stock to the world and little better than the kind of shitshow which Trump derided in Africa.
Do you have Clickbait down as dangerous, devastating, or defanged ?
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/30/imagining-post-president-trump-433704 ... In interviews, historians, government legal experts, national security leaders and people close to the administration have a prediction that will disquiet his critics: The Trump Era is unlikely to end when the Trump presidency ends. They envision a post-presidency as disruptive and norm-busting as his presidency has been—one that could make his successor’s job much harder. They outline a picture of a man who might formally leave office only to establish himself as the president-for-life amid his own bubble of admirers—controlling Republican politics and sowing chaos in the U.S. and around the world long after he’s officially left office.
“Can he continue to make people not trust our institutions? Can he throw monkey wrenches into delicate negotiations? Absolutely,” one former Trump administration official says. “He can be a tool. He’ll be somewhere between dangerous and devastating on that extent.”...
And before that he gets two and a half months of transition time to wreak revenge. Ridiculous system.
Is it just to be polite and wait for California to finish counting the votes?
When the inevitable public inquiry comes out the government will get a lot of leeway for their actions in the spring, but none for their failure to heed the SAGE warnings in early autumn. Both rightly so imo.
It will also ask why on Earth we didn’t extend the Brexit transition by a year to help business cope
I disagree on that one. No deal Brexit is a stupid idea, but if you are going to implement it, the best time is actually when the economy is in lockdown and businesses are getting massive state grants.
What massive state grants? Furlough ends today. The replacement scheme is far less generous.
The government wants us to put us all back into a March lockdown situation, apparently, but without the same financial support as in March. And then wants us to prepare for the unknown in a little over 6 weeks time.
As always, qui bono?
A two week lockdown would not have resulted in the elimination of the disease. A one month lockdown won't result in the elimination of the disease. Nothing is going to turn up in that four week period that won't prevent demands that (a) the lockdown be extended or (b) it gets reintroduced.
Some people here seem to have severe cognitive problems.
The point is that we showed in the Summer that the spread of the virus could be substantially controlled with restrictions much less severe than a lockdown.
But it's crystal clear - and it always should have been - that it can't be controlled if we "go back to normal". Encouraging people to think that and do that has been the supreme act of folly of this government. That's why we've got into the appalling situation we're in now.
So Nate had a chat with Cahaly and has put Trafalgar's polls back into his polling average.
Let's just do a little sense check. Trafalgar has unleashed a veritable flood of state polls with field work date from 24th to the 29th of October.
They have ~1050 respondents and a response rate of ~1.4% . The per poll the number of contacts necessary for the response size was (and the dates attempted)
The 25th is certainly a very nigh number of contact attempts. Very high. Impressively high. Trafalgar must be a very large and well resourced polling outfit to manage so many contact attempts in a day. Assuming an 8-to-8 window that was almost 4 contact attempts per second
When the inevitable public inquiry comes out the government will get a lot of leeway for their actions in the spring, but none for their failure to heed the SAGE warnings in early autumn. Both rightly so imo.
It will also ask why on Earth we didn’t extend the Brexit transition by a year to help business cope
I disagree on that one. No deal Brexit is a stupid idea, but if you are going to implement it, the best time is actually when the economy is in lockdown and businesses are getting massive state grants.
What massive state grants? Furlough ends today. The replacement scheme is far less generous.
The government wants us to put us all back into a March lockdown situation, apparently, but without the same financial support as in March. And then wants us to prepare for the unknown in a little over 6 weeks time.
If the government is closing businesses the support is 67% of wages up to just over £2k per month. In addition many businesses have received business rates relief and grants, local or national.
Whenever we move to a stricter lockdown, the Treasury has increased the state support for businesses, I would expect them to do so again as we move into a prolonged lockdown.
As I said the current scheme is worse than that available in March.
Businesses are now in a weaker position than they were then.
We’re so fucked. No two ways about it. Things won’t get better until the men in grey suits wake from their slumber and get Boris out of number 10.
Much as I agree that BoZo is a useless and mendacious oaf, the last thing we need now is a contest for next leader of the Tory party.
Its not as if other European countries are faring notably better. It's a bit early to see the effect of the Welsh "circuit breaker", but things are getting a bit dicy again.
We’re so fucked. No two ways about it. Things won’t get better until the men in grey suits wake from their slumber and get Boris out of number 10.
Much as I agree that BoZo is a useless and mendacious oaf, the last thing we need now is a contest for next leader of the Tory party.
Its not as if other European countries are faring notably better. It's a bit early to see the effect of the Welsh "circuit breaker", but things are getting a bit dicy again.
The result of the infighting within the government/Tory party is going to be some kind of new Tier Four, isn't it? One that looks very like lockdown. Maybe everyone else will get moved up to Tier Three at the same time.
When the inevitable public inquiry comes out the government will get a lot of leeway for their actions in the spring, but none for their failure to heed the SAGE warnings in early autumn. Both rightly so imo.
It will also ask why on Earth we didn’t extend the Brexit transition by a year to help business cope
I disagree on that one. No deal Brexit is a stupid idea, but if you are going to implement it, the best time is actually when the economy is in lockdown and businesses are getting massive state grants.
What massive state grants? Furlough ends today. The replacement scheme is far less generous.
The government wants us to put us all back into a March lockdown situation, apparently, but without the same financial support as in March. And then wants us to prepare for the unknown in a little over 6 weeks time.
If the government is closing businesses the support is 67% of wages up to just over £2k per month. In addition many businesses have received business rates relief and grants, local or national.
Whenever we move to a stricter lockdown, the Treasury has increased the state support for businesses, I would expect them to do so again as we move into a prolonged lockdown.
As I said the current scheme is worse than that available in March.
Businesses are now in a weaker position than they were then.
Let’s see if the Treasury does change its mind.
Clearly all that is true, but it is also true that it is a massive level of state support for business.
We’re so fucked. No two ways about it. Things won’t get better until the men in grey suits wake from their slumber and get Boris out of number 10.
Grey suits or flapping white coats? With his strange fad for dressing up I wouldn't be at all surprised. Watching his idol taking a hammering on Tuesday could well push him over the edge.
We’re so fucked. No two ways about it. Things won’t get better until the men in grey suits wake from their slumber and get Boris out of number 10.
Grey suits or flapping white coats? With his strange fad for dressing up I wouldn't be at all surprised. Watching his idol taking a hammering on Tuesday could well push him over the edge.
Hope it is a hammering for Trump. Maybe its the bleak news this morning but I'm starting to wobble on Biden - 2020 'aint done f*cking with us yet I fear. Not by a long chalk.
When the inevitable public inquiry comes out the government will get a lot of leeway for their actions in the spring, but none for their failure to heed the SAGE warnings in early autumn. Both rightly so imo.
It will also ask why on Earth we didn’t extend the Brexit transition by a year to help business cope
I disagree on that one. No deal Brexit is a stupid idea, but if you are going to implement it, the best time is actually when the economy is in lockdown and businesses are getting massive state grants.
What massive state grants? Furlough ends today. The replacement scheme is far less generous.
The government wants us to put us all back into a March lockdown situation, apparently, but without the same financial support as in March. And then wants us to prepare for the unknown in a little over 6 weeks time.
If the government is closing businesses the support is 67% of wages up to just over £2k per month. In addition many businesses have received business rates relief and grants, local or national.
Whenever we move to a stricter lockdown, the Treasury has increased the state support for businesses, I would expect them to do so again as we move into a prolonged lockdown.
As I said the current scheme is worse than that available in March.
Businesses are now in a weaker position than they were then.
When the inevitable public inquiry comes out the government will get a lot of leeway for their actions in the spring, but none for their failure to heed the SAGE warnings in early autumn. Both rightly so imo.
It will also ask why on Earth we didn’t extend the Brexit transition by a year to help business cope
I disagree on that one. No deal Brexit is a stupid idea, but if you are going to implement it, the best time is actually when the economy is in lockdown and businesses are getting massive state grants.
What massive state grants? Furlough ends today. The replacement scheme is far less generous.
The government wants us to put us all back into a March lockdown situation, apparently, but without the same financial support as in March. And then wants us to prepare for the unknown in a little over 6 weeks time.
As always, qui bono?
A two week lockdown would not have resulted in the elimination of the disease. A one month lockdown won't result in the elimination of the disease. Nothing is going to turn up in that four week period that won't prevent demands that (a) the lockdown be extended or (b) it gets reintroduced.
Some people here seem to have severe cognitive problems.
The point is that we showed in the Summer that the spread of the virus could be substantially controlled with restrictions much less severe than a lockdown.
But it's crystal clear - and it always should have been - that it can't be controlled if we "go back to normal". Encouraging people to think that and do that has been the supreme act of folly of this government. That's why we've got into the appalling situation we're in now.
We have never gone back to normal.
Its supreme act of folly was not using the time during the first lockdown to build a much more effective test, track and isolation system.
When the inevitable public inquiry comes out the government will get a lot of leeway for their actions in the spring, but none for their failure to heed the SAGE warnings in early autumn. Both rightly so imo.
It will also ask why on Earth we didn’t extend the Brexit transition by a year to help business cope
I disagree on that one. No deal Brexit is a stupid idea, but if you are going to implement it, the best time is actually when the economy is in lockdown and businesses are getting massive state grants.
What massive state grants? Furlough ends today. The replacement scheme is far less generous.
The government wants us to put us all back into a March lockdown situation, apparently, but without the same financial support as in March. And then wants us to prepare for the unknown in a little over 6 weeks time.
If the government is closing businesses the support is 67% of wages up to just over £2k per month. In addition many businesses have received business rates relief and grants, local or national.
Whenever we move to a stricter lockdown, the Treasury has increased the state support for businesses, I would expect them to do so again as we move into a prolonged lockdown.
As I said the current scheme is worse than that available in March.
Businesses are now in a weaker position than they were then.
Let’s see if the Treasury does change its mind.
Clearly all that is true, but it is also true that it is a massive level of state support for business.
Thousands of postal ballots have, apparently, gone missing in Pennsylvania.
I don't think the GOP realise that far from making America great again, they are a laughing stock to the world and little better than the kind of shitshow which Trump derided in Africa.
Do you have Clickbait down as dangerous, devastating, or defanged ?
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/30/imagining-post-president-trump-433704 ... In interviews, historians, government legal experts, national security leaders and people close to the administration have a prediction that will disquiet his critics: The Trump Era is unlikely to end when the Trump presidency ends. They envision a post-presidency as disruptive and norm-busting as his presidency has been—one that could make his successor’s job much harder. They outline a picture of a man who might formally leave office only to establish himself as the president-for-life amid his own bubble of admirers—controlling Republican politics and sowing chaos in the U.S. and around the world long after he’s officially left office.
“Can he continue to make people not trust our institutions? Can he throw monkey wrenches into delicate negotiations? Absolutely,” one former Trump administration official says. “He can be a tool. He’ll be somewhere between dangerous and devastating on that extent.”...
It doesnt matter if its Trump or not, he is just a sad reflection of the social media age. Hundreds of millions of people already believe balderdash because that is what their social media tells them, it will shortly be billions of people. To get their vote leaders will tend to increasingly lie and distort the truth Trumpy style.
Disagree, Trump used social media but he came from television, he got elected because he played a businessman on TV.
What I find most depressing about all this is that the people in power still seem to think that there is a trade-off to be had between economy and lives while R is above 1.
By delaying measures, all you're doing is delaying the economic damage, yet make it last longer, and kill/damage more people both from the virus and the economic effects.
And it's so bloody hard to get R much below 1. Every week with the virus spreading at R=1.5 for example then requires four weeks at R=0.9 to get back to the starting level.
Does that "capacity" include all those unused Nightengales?
If you read the full report on the BBC website rather than the tweet, you'll see that it does assume the Nightingale hospitals are used (and that all non-urgent procedures are cancelled).
And it's also worth considering that staff may be fully occupied before all the beds are filled. Particularly if significant numbers of staff are ill themselves or self-isolating.
Extrapolating this graph is painful to see, but it looks like where we are going.
Indeed. But my allowing Rasputin to leak to selected journos on a Fri night that there will be a national lockdown announced on monday the "administration" has guaranteed tons of young people will be out this weekend enjoying one last party before Xmas.
When the inevitable public inquiry comes out the government will get a lot of leeway for their actions in the spring, but none for their failure to heed the SAGE warnings in early autumn. Both rightly so imo.
It will also ask why on Earth we didn’t extend the Brexit transition by a year to help business cope
I disagree on that one. No deal Brexit is a stupid idea, but if you are going to implement it, the best time is actually when the economy is in lockdown and businesses are getting massive state grants.
What massive state grants? Furlough ends today. The replacement scheme is far less generous.
The government wants us to put us all back into a March lockdown situation, apparently, but without the same financial support as in March. And then wants us to prepare for the unknown in a little over 6 weeks time.
As always, qui bono?
A two week lockdown would not have resulted in the elimination of the disease. A one month lockdown won't result in the elimination of the disease. Nothing is going to turn up in that four week period that won't prevent demands that (a) the lockdown be extended or (b) it gets reintroduced.
Some people here seem to have severe cognitive problems.
The point is that we showed in the Summer that the spread of the virus could be substantially controlled with restrictions much less severe than a lockdown.
But it's crystal clear - and it always should have been - that it can't be controlled if we "go back to normal". Encouraging people to think that and do that has been the supreme act of folly of this government. That's why we've got into the appalling situation we're in now.
In the Summer we enjoyed good weather, and had juste emerged from three months in which everything pretty much was shut down.
People can't be blamed for seeking to resume normal lives. Offering endless misery and hopelessness to the population is hardly a viable strategy in the long run,
We’re so fucked. No two ways about it. Things won’t get better until the men in grey suits wake from their slumber and get Boris out of number 10.
The majority of the cabinet know that they owe their place in it to their loyalty to Johnson/Cummings. The most organised group of backbenchers are those who are in thrall to wishful thinking that would see us in a worse position.
Another U-turn before a policy even gets implemented, incoming? Hot on the heels of the previous business support scheme, trashed a few days after announcement.
U Turns are a viable option when you can spin the results as a success even if they're a failure. The sort of thing I expected next year about Brexit. However, Coronavirus doesn't lend itself to spin and a decision, or lack of one, now will have consequences that will be starkly obvious.
When the inevitable public inquiry comes out the government will get a lot of leeway for their actions in the spring, but none for their failure to heed the SAGE warnings in early autumn. Both rightly so imo.
It will also ask why on Earth we didn’t extend the Brexit transition by a year to help business cope
I disagree on that one. No deal Brexit is a stupid idea, but if you are going to implement it, the best time is actually when the economy is in lockdown and businesses are getting massive state grants.
What massive state grants? Furlough ends today. The replacement scheme is far less generous.
The government wants us to put us all back into a March lockdown situation, apparently, but without the same financial support as in March. And then wants us to prepare for the unknown in a little over 6 weeks time.
As always, qui bono?
A two week lockdown would not have resulted in the elimination of the disease. A one month lockdown won't result in the elimination of the disease. Nothing is going to turn up in that four week period that won't prevent demands that (a) the lockdown be extended or (b) it gets reintroduced.
Some people here seem to have severe cognitive problems.
The point is that we showed in the Summer that the spread of the virus could be substantially controlled with restrictions much less severe than a lockdown.
But it's crystal clear - and it always should have been - that it can't be controlled if we "go back to normal". Encouraging people to think that and do that has been the supreme act of folly of this government. That's why we've got into the appalling situation we're in now.
In the Summer we enjoyed good weather, and had juste emerged from three months in which everything pretty much was shut down.
People can't be blamed for seeking to resume normal lives. Offering endless misery and hopelessness to the population is hardly a viable strategy in the long run,
Doing nothing is not an option. Delayed decisions makes things worse. Prioritising short term comfort is a mistake.
When the inevitable public inquiry comes out the government will get a lot of leeway for their actions in the spring, but none for their failure to heed the SAGE warnings in early autumn. Both rightly so imo.
It will also ask why on Earth we didn’t extend the Brexit transition by a year to help business cope
I disagree on that one. No deal Brexit is a stupid idea, but if you are going to implement it, the best time is actually when the economy is in lockdown and businesses are getting massive state grants.
What massive state grants? Furlough ends today. The replacement scheme is far less generous.
The government wants us to put us all back into a March lockdown situation, apparently, but without the same financial support as in March. And then wants us to prepare for the unknown in a little over 6 weeks time.
As always, qui bono?
A two week lockdown would not have resulted in the elimination of the disease. A one month lockdown won't result in the elimination of the disease. Nothing is going to turn up in that four week period that won't prevent demands that (a) the lockdown be extended or (b) it gets reintroduced.
Some people here seem to have severe cognitive problems.
The point is that we showed in the Summer that the spread of the virus could be substantially controlled with restrictions much less severe than a lockdown.
But it's crystal clear - and it always should have been - that it can't be controlled if we "go back to normal". Encouraging people to think that and do that has been the supreme act of folly of this government. That's why we've got into the appalling situation we're in now.
In the Summer we enjoyed good weather, and had juste emerged from three months in which everything pretty much was shut down.
People can't be blamed for seeking to resume normal lives. Offering endless misery and hopelessness to the population is hardly a viable strategy in the long run,
OK, be hopeful and resume normal life. Do you think that will halt Covid-19 and save the economy? Halting Covid-19 will save the economy more than letting it rip.
I think its pretty obvious that covid-19 is seasonal and there is not a lot that can be done about it. What did the first lockdown achieve that the passing of winter did not? Cases were already flattening before the first lockdown. unless we feel its good to lock the country down permanently then covid 19 will be here in winter and not so much in summer (just like flu). As for hospitals being full - well they always are in a bad flu year in winter. Surely peoples memories are not that goldfish like to not remember this?
The effects of a lockdown will be (have been) far greater than the effects of covid-19. Sweden are not seeing the case levels the other European countries are now becasue they did not get obsessed and delusiional about being able to defeat it in the first place
The papers today are all full of the dire warnings from SAGE that the Tier system is 'ineffective' and that we are on an inexorable course towards hospitals being overwhelmed etc as a result.
Is any of this actually based on data, rather than surmise, collected since the Tier system was introduced.
Aren't most of the SAGE analysis of cases based on data that predated the Tier system being introduced. The tier system was only introduced a little over 2 weeks ago. Only Liverpool has been in it for the full period. Greater Manchester little more than a week!
We know that hospitalisations and deaths are a lagging indicator so up-to-date evidence of that also largely predates the Tier system.
Now the scientists may well be "right" about the Tier system. But is any of their opinion based on actual data? Or might the Tier system actually be having an effect (as evidence by the slow down in published daily case numbers, rather than the "old" data from ONS etc)?
Getting a bit heated. We're headed for lockdown. Hopefully everyone has spent time preparing their mind for what is to come. Peace and blessings to you all.
Broken electric kettles and toilet seats if reports from Wales are any guide. The real question is where can we buy Christmas presents if non-essential shops are closed.
Online shopping,
I buy everything online now. I haven't been inside a physical shop for months.
Amazon take 95% of my business. I love Amazon Fresh.
Online shopping is usually cheaper and more efficient, but I think most people will miss physical shops if they disappear completely. It'll be a sad day if that happens.
I do agree but I began to find supermarket shopping very stressful. The absence of face masks in enclosed spaces was awful.
Slapping VAT back on facemasks seems an odd move but I expect the government knows what it is doing.
When the inevitable public inquiry comes out the government will get a lot of leeway for their actions in the spring, but none for their failure to heed the SAGE warnings in early autumn. Both rightly so imo.
It will also ask why on Earth we didn’t extend the Brexit transition by a year to help business cope
I disagree on that one. No deal Brexit is a stupid idea, but if you are going to implement it, the best time is actually when the economy is in lockdown and businesses are getting massive state grants.
What massive state grants? Furlough ends today. The replacement scheme is far less generous.
The government wants us to put us all back into a March lockdown situation, apparently, but without the same financial support as in March. And then wants us to prepare for the unknown in a little over 6 weeks time.
As always, qui bono?
A two week lockdown would not have resulted in the elimination of the disease. A one month lockdown won't result in the elimination of the disease. Nothing is going to turn up in that four week period that won't prevent demands that (a) the lockdown be extended or (b) it gets reintroduced.
Some people here seem to have severe cognitive problems.
The point is that we showed in the Summer that the spread of the virus could be substantially controlled with restrictions much less severe than a lockdown.
But it's crystal clear - and it always should have been - that it can't be controlled if we "go back to normal". Encouraging people to think that and do that has been the supreme act of folly of this government. That's why we've got into the appalling situation we're in now.
In the Summer we enjoyed good weather, and had juste emerged from three months in which everything pretty much was shut down.
People can't be blamed for seeking to resume normal lives. Offering endless misery and hopelessness to the population is hardly a viable strategy in the long run,
OK, be hopeful and resume normal life. Do you think that will halt Covid-19 and save the economy? Halting Covid-19 will save the economy more than letting it rip.
"Doing nothing" is not of course what people are doing. They are socially distancing, wearing masks, working remotely etc.
There are no good options, given where we are. But, it seems to me that another national lockdown is among the worst.
The papers today are all full of the dire warnings from SAGE that the Tier system is 'ineffective' and that we are on an inexorable course towards hospitals being overwhelmed etc as a result.
Is any of this actually based on data, rather than surmise, collected since the Tier system was introduced.
Aren't most of the SAGE analysis of cases based on data that predated the Tier system being introduced. The tier system was only introduced a little over 2 weeks ago. Only Liverpool has been in it for the full period. Greater Manchester little more than a week!
We know that hospitalisations and deaths are a lagging indicator so up-to-date evidence of that also largely predates the Tier system.
Now the scientists may well be "right" about the Tier system. But is any of their opinion based on actual data? Or might the Tier system actually be having an effect (as evidence by the slow down in published daily case numbers, rather than the "old" data from ONS etc)?
Foxy mentioned that the R number has dropped sharply in the NE, not sure about the NW.
Looks obvious that it's worse than the projected worst case. Yet John Redwood doubting this on R4.
Another ERG genius that the Tory right love so much, only interested in making money.
I remain unconvinced by the use of this stat: deaths with a + test within 28 days. I defer to ONS who are the experts, but it doesn't sit right with me.
How many of these people actually died from the virus, rather than something else with a + test?
When the inevitable public inquiry comes out the government will get a lot of leeway for their actions in the spring, but none for their failure to heed the SAGE warnings in early autumn. Both rightly so imo.
It will also ask why on Earth we didn’t extend the Brexit transition by a year to help business cope
I disagree on that one. No deal Brexit is a stupid idea, but if you are going to implement it, the best time is actually when the economy is in lockdown and businesses are getting massive state grants.
What massive state grants? Furlough ends today. The replacement scheme is far less generous.
The government wants us to put us all back into a March lockdown situation, apparently, but without the same financial support as in March. And then wants us to prepare for the unknown in a little over 6 weeks time.
As always, qui bono?
A two week lockdown would not have resulted in the elimination of the disease. A one month lockdown won't result in the elimination of the disease. Nothing is going to turn up in that four week period that won't prevent demands that (a) the lockdown be extended or (b) it gets reintroduced.
Some people here seem to have severe cognitive problems.
The point is that we showed in the Summer that the spread of the virus could be substantially controlled with restrictions much less severe than a lockdown.
But it's crystal clear - and it always should have been - that it can't be controlled if we "go back to normal". Encouraging people to think that and do that has been the supreme act of folly of this government. That's why we've got into the appalling situation we're in now.
In the Summer we enjoyed good weather, and had juste emerged from three months in which everything pretty much was shut down.
People can't be blamed for seeking to resume normal lives. Offering endless misery and hopelessness to the population is hardly a viable strategy in the long run,
A vaccine is the only viable answer in the long run. Russia and Venezuela claim to have one!
Almost like he was correct that there was no evidence tier 3 would be enough and all the government was doing was destroying the local economy.
Don't fear, as soon as it looks like London reaches the point of going into tier 3 the whole nation will be locked down, with much more financial support.
Comments
But a Trump win requires special pleading. Although, then you think back to the UK's 2017 exit poll... And I think there was at least one Israeli election where the result on the day utterly confounded the polling - polling that said Netanyahu was toast. Something like an 8% difference.
1. Women are making up 55-57% of votes cast. That's a massive gender gap, and one Trump will struggle to overcome.
2. Polling errors tend to oscillate, and most pollsters have corrected (perhaps over corrected) for their undersampling of high school educated voters in 2016
3. "Social desirability" can usually be deduced by different responses between online and phone
Do you have Clickbait down as dangerous, devastating, or defanged ?
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/30/imagining-post-president-trump-433704
... In interviews, historians, government legal experts, national security leaders and people close to the administration have a prediction that will disquiet his critics: The Trump Era is unlikely to end when the Trump presidency ends. They envision a post-presidency as disruptive and norm-busting as his presidency has been—one that could make his successor’s job much harder. They outline a picture of a man who might formally leave office only to establish himself as the president-for-life amid his own bubble of admirers—controlling Republican politics and sowing chaos in the U.S. and around the world long after he’s officially left office.
“Can he continue to make people not trust our institutions? Can he throw monkey wrenches into delicate negotiations? Absolutely,” one former Trump administration official says. “He can be a tool. He’ll be somewhere between dangerous and devastating on that extent.”...
They’re drunk at the wheel.
(SPOILER: she doesn't get any more money, sadly)
Another friend was complaining about mask rules and told me he would rather go to prison than wear a mask. Okaaaaay. But then he added "it's just like what happened to the jews under the nazis"
This virus is definitely having a bad effect on people's brains.
Mr. Jonathan, I fear you overestimate the decision-making capabilities and intellectual prowess of the PM if you think he isn't capable of repeatedly making similar mistakes.
Edited extra bit F1: because there's only one practice session this weekend it's 90 rather than 60 minutes long.
The government wants us to put us all back into a March lockdown situation, apparently, but without the same financial support as in March. And then wants us to prepare for the unknown in a little over 6 weeks time.
Sadly economics, physics and biology say otherwise.
They are leading us onto the rocks.
And it's also worth considering that staff may be fully occupied before all the beds are filled. Particularly if significant numbers of staff are ill themselves or self-isolating.
A two week lockdown would not have resulted in the elimination of the disease. A one month lockdown won't result in the elimination of the disease. Nothing is going to turn up in that four week period that won't prevent demands that (a) the lockdown be extended or (b) it gets reintroduced.
Whenever we move to a stricter lockdown, the Treasury has increased the state support for businesses, I would expect them to do so again as we move into a prolonged lockdown.
https://twitter.com/MayorofLondon/status/1322448582251810822
It would be good if he put a bit more effort into cosplaying a PM instead.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1322237884569714688?s=19
Its a good weekend to stay home.
The point is that we showed in the Summer that the spread of the virus could be substantially controlled with restrictions much less severe than a lockdown.
But it's crystal clear - and it always should have been - that it can't be controlled if we "go back to normal". Encouraging people to think that and do that has been the supreme act of folly of this government. That's why we've got into the appalling situation we're in now.
Let's just do a little sense check. Trafalgar has unleashed a veritable flood of state polls with field work date from 24th to the 29th of October.
They have ~1050 respondents and a response rate of ~1.4% . The per poll the number of contacts necessary for the response size was (and the dates attempted)
Arizona: 74766 - 25-28
Florida: 77714 - 25-28
Nevada: 74744 - 28-29
Michigan: 75035 - 25-28
Minnesota: 75000 - 24-25
Pennsylvania: 78540 - 24-25
Wisconsin: 75138 - 24-25
Assuming even contact attempts per day that gives
24th - 114,339
25th - 171,218
26th - 56,878
27th - 56,879
28th - 94,251
29th - 37,372
The 25th is certainly a very nigh number of contact attempts. Very high. Impressively high. Trafalgar must be a very large and well resourced polling outfit to manage so many contact attempts in a day. Assuming an 8-to-8 window that was almost 4 contact attempts per second
Businesses are now in a weaker position than they were then.
Let’s see if the Treasury does change its mind.
Its not as if other European countries are faring notably better. It's a bit early to see the effect of the Welsh "circuit breaker", but things are getting a bit dicy again.
Can't see Johnson being able to hold out against this level of intense prediction.
https://twitter.com/allisonpearson/status/1322320491315712000
Whether his purge of the antisemites becomes a self inflicted wound or a triumph, we probably need to give a little longer to see.
Is Richard Stallman involved? I think we should be told...
In both senses of the word.
Its supreme act of folly was not using the time during the first lockdown to build a much more effective test, track and isolation system. It can be both massive and inadequate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tdtGo2Ib9oI
By delaying measures, all you're doing is delaying the economic damage, yet make it last longer, and kill/damage more people both from the virus and the economic effects.
And it's so bloody hard to get R much below 1. Every week with the virus spreading at R=1.5 for example then requires four weeks at R=0.9 to get back to the starting level.
People can't be blamed for seeking to resume normal lives. Offering endless misery and hopelessness to the population is hardly a viable strategy in the long run,
The men in grey suits won't save us now.
However, Coronavirus doesn't lend itself to spin and a decision, or lack of one, now will have consequences that will be starkly obvious.
"Tim Spector, professor of genetic epidemiology at King's College, said: "While cases are still rising across the UK, we want to reassure people that cases have not spiralled out of control, as has been recently reported from other surveys."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/30/covid-19-rates-not-surging-reveals-kings-college-research/
https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1322456724717084674
As for hospitals being full - well they always are in a bad flu year in winter. Surely peoples memories are not that goldfish like to not remember this?
The effects of a lockdown will be (have been) far greater than the effects of covid-19. Sweden are not seeing the case levels the other European countries are now becasue they did not get obsessed and delusiional about being able to defeat it in the first place
The papers today are all full of the dire warnings from SAGE that the Tier system is 'ineffective' and that we are on an inexorable course towards hospitals being overwhelmed etc as a result.
Is any of this actually based on data, rather than surmise, collected since the Tier system was introduced.
Aren't most of the SAGE analysis of cases based on data that predated the Tier system being introduced. The tier system was only introduced a little over 2 weeks ago. Only Liverpool has been in it for the full period. Greater Manchester little more than a week!
We know that hospitalisations and deaths are a lagging indicator so up-to-date evidence of that also largely predates the Tier system.
Now the scientists may well be "right" about the Tier system. But is any of their opinion based on actual data? Or might the Tier system actually be having an effect (as evidence by the slow down in published daily case numbers, rather than the "old" data from ONS etc)?
There are no good options, given where we are. But, it seems to me that another national lockdown is among the worst.
How many of these people actually died from the virus, rather than something else with a + test?
Don't fear, as soon as it looks like London reaches the point of going into tier 3 the whole nation will be locked down, with much more financial support.