How the PB Tories laughed at the travails we are experiencing here in Wales. They won't be laughing when I am enjoying a family Christmas while England languishes in Tier 3 over the festive season.
I doubt anyone in the UK will be having a large family Christmas gathering.
Except all those who are already saying they will ignore the government and carry on.
True, but I think Mexicanpete's point was about the regulations that apply, not what people will actually do.
Yebbut... electproject is showing 488,150 early votes in Maimi-Dade to date. I can't see a split by voter registration, sadly but 360k votes missing from that tweet above.
Meanwhile the Black vote seems to be moving more to Trump relative to 2016 which could be pivotal in Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina which have above average percentages of African American voters
Come on. If you obtained variance like that, you'd junk your methodology. 24% to 46% in 3 days in the absence of a war or 9/11 type event? Malarkey.
I suspect that both Rasmussen and Trafalgar are basically trousering money from GOP backers to keep producing "polls" that make it look like they are still in the race.
Rasmussen was the only pollster projecting a GOP lead in the mid-terms. They lost by 8.4%.
Rasmussen are the only pollster telling us Trump has a positive approval rating whilst everyone else has a disapproval rating of around 7 to 20%.
There are very good reasons these too are graded as C/ C- pollsters.
Rasmussen final 2016 national poll Clinton +2%
Result Clinton +2%
More recently, mid-terms Rasmussen GOP +1, Actual result Dems +8.4%.
Massive Fail
To be fair to Rasmussen - and @HYFUD (who quite frankly should be congratulated for taking the sh1t he does):
If you look at the 2018 voter numbers, what happened was that Democrats turned out in similar numbers to 2016 but the Republican number fell by (memory serves me right) 10m+. It could have been that where Rasmussen got it wrong was assuming that 2018 would see a relatively similar to turnout to mid-year campaigns when compared to 2014.
Assuming everyone in North Carolina is voting exactly in proportion to how they voted in 2016 on a County level Trump currently leads by 56,000 votes
That sounds like very bad news for Biden - you’d expect him to be well ahead given the the preponderance of Dems in early voting.
But 44% of registered Democrats have already voted in NC vs 37% of Republicans. 1,125,000 Democrats have voted in NC, vs 784,000 Republicans.
Aha! I see! I thought that sounded overly negative.
Apologies.
And thanks.
Yeah, the missing piece of the puzzle is if the early vote was following the proportion of 2016 at the state level (i.e Trump 49.8, Clinton 46.2) then Trump should be winning by 99,000 votes.
What always fascinates me about betting, maybe it's just me that sees it this way, is how something with the same chance of happening, happening feels so different, ie Trump as a 2/1 shot winning the election would seem a shock, but if the favourite wins today's 400 at Newbury (Jumaira Bay, currently a 5/2 shot on Betfair) it will be nothing to talk about, despite it being less likely to happen, according to the market, than The Donald retaining the Presidency
I think some of this is to do with binary vs multiple. For example -
Race 1 has 10 runners all at 9/1. Race 2 has 2 runners, fav at 1/9, nag at 9/1.
So, one of the 9/1 shots is bound to come in in Race 1. Therefore this will not feel like much of a surprise to an independent dispassionate observer who has no bet on. But if the 9/1 nag beats the 1/9 "racing certainty" in Race 2, that WILL feel like a real shock.
So here, with the US election, it's like Race 2, a binary 2 horse race, and of course ... I'm going to enjoy this pay off sentence ... Trump is the Nag.
Yeah that is partly it, but it still feels different to be on the 7/1f for the Grand National than it does West Ham tmrw vs City, to me anyway despite knowing this for 20 odd years
So binary factor and also favourite vs outsider
Actually that West Ham bet looks alright!
Think I know what you'll say (which is the same as me) but let me check -
Taking your 2 examples, do you instinctively feel your 7/1 fav National horse has a better or worse chance of winning than your 7/1 West Ham nag?
Oh 100% better
Right. Yes, ditto. (We'll assume no bias due to WH being your team and so you'd feel the same if it were say Palace.)
Interesting that this directly conflicts with 2 old gambling sayings -
"The bigger the field the bigger the certainty."
"Always take the big odds on a 2 horse race."
I support The Arsenal!
No, West Ham.
What do you mean?
I've assessed you as being West Ham - like Russell Brand and Ray Winstone.
That looks like a good job is being done with allocating the tiers. There is bound to be some overlap, but there is practically none between tier 1 and tier 3. Given the uncertainty and fluidity of the situation I would say that the people doing this assessment are performing as well as could be reasonably expected.
"Police in England will attempt to turn around drivers making non-essential journeys out of Wales during the nation's 17-day firebreak lockdown.
Gloucestershire Constabulary confirmed they would patrol routes into the Forest of Dean area, on the England-Wales border, and pull over vehicles they suspected of making long journeys.
If the drivers turn out to have driven out of Wales without a valid excuse they will be asked to turn around, the force said, and if they refuse they will then be reported to police in Wales."
Prince Charles just ensured Australia becomes a republic.
The Prince of Wales gave his support to the governor-general of Australia over the sacking of the country’s prime minister in 1975, newly-released private letters have revealed.
The dismissal of Gough Whitlam’s government by Sir John Kerr, the Queen’s representative, was one of Australia’s most controversial episodes.
Papers released this year showed that the Queen took no part in the sacking of the Labor prime minister, which plunged Australia into a constitutional crisis. However, the letters reveal that Prince Charles was the first member of the royal family to back Sir John.
The dismissal was the result of a political impasse after Mr Whitlam’s government had been rocked by scandals and an economic crisis. The opposition urged Sir John to sack Mr Whitlam unless he agreed to call an election.
In March 1976, four months after the sacking, the prince, aged 27, wrote to express sympathy for the governor-general. “Please don’t lose heart,” he wrote. “What you did last year was right and the courageous thing to do — and most Australians seemed to endorse your decision when it came to the point.”
The monarchy post HMQ can survive by being completely crap. Charles has worked at this theme all his life. Lord knows how he'll get over being Charles III. No, no I'm Henry IX? I don't see it.
I would go out of my way to help our future king, so perhaps there's help, of good sorts, available.
Presuming that "Democrats" and "Republicans" mean people who are registered by party, then this is NOT (necesarily) bad news for Biden, because:
1. Republicans tend to vote earlier than Democrats anyway, so fact that early voting by registered Dems is at same rate as for registered Reps is GOOD news for Biden & other Dems.
2. Clear from polling & other evidence that MANY Republican and R-leaning voters are voting THIS election for Biden & other Dems, esp. suburban voters in places like Miami-Dade.
I'm curious. You may not know this, but. How many of the 10 admissions per day are coming because of severe difficulties from covid? i.e. are some of these patients coming in because of other conditions and are then tested and found to also have covid?
Its a mixture. Some presenting with respiratory symptoms, some with other conditions. Covid is not just a respiratory condition.
One practical issue is that it is increasingly hard to isolate suspect patients with full wards etc.
Yebbut... electproject is showing 488,150 early votes in Maimi-Dade to date. I can't see a split by voter registration, sadly but 360k votes missing from that tweet above.
What always fascinates me about betting, maybe it's just me that sees it this way, is how something with the same chance of happening, happening feels so different, ie Trump as a 2/1 shot winning the election would seem a shock, but if the favourite wins today's 400 at Newbury (Jumaira Bay, currently a 5/2 shot on Betfair) it will be nothing to talk about, despite it being less likely to happen, according to the market, than The Donald retaining the Presidency
I think some of this is to do with binary vs multiple. For example -
Race 1 has 10 runners all at 9/1. Race 2 has 2 runners, fav at 1/9, nag at 9/1.
So, one of the 9/1 shots is bound to come in in Race 1. Therefore this will not feel like much of a surprise to an independent dispassionate observer who has no bet on. But if the 9/1 nag beats the 1/9 "racing certainty" in Race 2, that WILL feel like a real shock.
So here, with the US election, it's like Race 2, a binary 2 horse race, and of course ... I'm going to enjoy this pay off sentence ... Trump is the Nag.
Yeah that is partly it, but it still feels different to be on the 7/1f for the Grand National than it does West Ham tmrw vs City, to me anyway despite knowing this for 20 odd years
So binary factor and also favourite vs outsider
Actually that West Ham bet looks alright!
Think I know what you'll say (which is the same as me) but let me check -
Taking your 2 examples, do you instinctively feel your 7/1 fav National horse has a better or worse chance of winning than your 7/1 West Ham nag?
Oh 100% better
Right. Yes, ditto. (We'll assume no bias due to WH being your team and so you'd feel the same if it were say Palace.)
Interesting that this directly conflicts with 2 old gambling sayings -
"The bigger the field the bigger the certainty."
"Always take the big odds on a 2 horse race."
I support The Arsenal!
No, West Ham.
What do you mean?
I've assessed you as being West Ham - like Russell Brand and Ray Winstone.
Haha oh no! I don’t really like either of those two much, in fact I quite dislike Russell Brand
Yebbut... electproject is showing 488,150 early votes in Maimi-Dade to date. I can't see a split by voter registration, sadly but 360k votes missing from that tweet above.
Yes, I saw that and it's obviously not picking up Vote By Mail Ballots, this is just for Early Person In-Voting but that is still a worrying number for Biden given how much Clinton won Miami-Dade last time by 290K votes. If the Republicans are matching Biden in Early Voting and have an advantage on the day, then that number suggests that advantage will be a lot lower this time for Biden
Yebbut... electproject is showing 488,150 early votes in Maimi-Dade to date. I can't see a split by voter registration, sadly but 360k votes missing from that tweet above.
The tweet is in-person early voting only, excluding the much bigger mail votes.
This stuff is quite hard to interpret unless you really know your stuff, but I am a bit surprised to see the low turnout so far in key Dem areas like Miami-Dade.
Edit: And Jay's Twitter profile doesn't inspire confidence.
I wonder how long we'll continue allowing EU passport holders to use our e-gates.....
Their reasoning seems stupid. I just went through Naples e-gates and they allowed a bunch of non-EU countries through there like Australia, USA and others where there is no specific trade deal. It just seems like another one of those "leaving must have consequences" decisions that doesn't apply to those who weren't ever in it.
Technically, don't they need a data sharing agreement in place - which they have with US, etc? Not complex (and something they would clearly want given their dependence on UK tourism), but will need be agreed.
As mentioned, it's just the early person in-votes, doesn't include Mail in Ballots. But given Clinton won Miami by 290K votes in 2016 and the Republicans should win on the day, this is not great for Biden
Meanwhile the Black vote seems to be moving more to Trump relative to 2016 which could be pivotal in Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina which have above average percentages of African American voters
Come on. If you obtained variance like that, you'd junk your methodology. 24% to 46% in 3 days in the absence of a war or 9/11 type event? Malarkey.
I suspect that both Rasmussen and Trafalgar are basically trousering money from GOP backers to keep producing "polls" that make it look like they are still in the race.
Rasmussen was the only pollster projecting a GOP lead in the mid-terms. They lost by 8.4%.
Rasmussen are the only pollster telling us Trump has a positive approval rating whilst everyone else has a disapproval rating of around 7 to 20%.
There are very good reasons these too are graded as C/ C- pollsters.
Rasmussen final 2016 national poll Clinton +2%
Result Clinton +2%
More recently, mid-terms Rasmussen GOP +1, Actual result Dems +8.4%.
Massive Fail
To be fair to Rasmussen - and @HYFUD (who quite frankly should be congratulated for taking the sh1t he does):
If you look at the 2018 voter numbers, what happened was that Democrats turned out in similar numbers to 2016 but the Republican number fell by (memory serves me right) 10m+. It could have been that where Rasmussen got it wrong was assuming that 2018 would see a relatively similar to turnout to mid-year campaigns when compared to 2014.
Early voting is traditionally dominated by OLDER voters. SO fact that that early voting by younger voters is lagging behind EV by geezers is NOT a surprising development.
That's only in person early voting. Add in mail in votes and you have
220K Dems 145K Republicans
Clinton won Miami-Date by 290K votes. If IPEV stays at that ratio, and the Republicans turn out more on the day, then Biden is looking at a lot of lost votes he needs to recapture
I wouldn't go that far, Monday was pretty bad by specimen date, Tuesday looks a bit better the early data for Wednesday is better though, assuming we're now at just 2 days test processing lag.
Yebbut... electproject is showing 488,150 early votes in Maimi-Dade to date. I can't see a split by voter registration, sadly but 360k votes missing from that tweet above.
Here are the latest FL numbers Total Voted by Party Registration
Party Count Percent Democrats 2,110,366 44.2 Republicans 1,682,849 35.3 Minor 56,934 1.2 No Party Affiliation 921,807 19.3 TOTAL 4,771,956 100.0
Presumably there will also be a bunch of mail in ballots that are still... errr... in the mail. So the "real" lead at this stage may be even larger for the Democrats.
The other questions, of course, is how the No Party Affiliation vote breaks - if it's 2:1 for the Democrats, then these are good numbers for the Dems. And if it's 2:1 for the Republicans, then it's excellent news for the President.
What always fascinates me about betting, maybe it's just me that sees it this way, is how something with the same chance of happening, happening feels so different, ie Trump as a 2/1 shot winning the election would seem a shock, but if the favourite wins today's 400 at Newbury (Jumaira Bay, currently a 5/2 shot on Betfair) it will be nothing to talk about, despite it being less likely to happen, according to the market, than The Donald retaining the Presidency
I think some of this is to do with binary vs multiple. For example -
Race 1 has 10 runners all at 9/1. Race 2 has 2 runners, fav at 1/9, nag at 9/1.
So, one of the 9/1 shots is bound to come in in Race 1. Therefore this will not feel like much of a surprise to an independent dispassionate observer who has no bet on. But if the 9/1 nag beats the 1/9 "racing certainty" in Race 2, that WILL feel like a real shock.
So here, with the US election, it's like Race 2, a binary 2 horse race, and of course ... I'm going to enjoy this pay off sentence ... Trump is the Nag.
Yeah that is partly it, but it still feels different to be on the 7/1f for the Grand National than it does West Ham tmrw vs City, to me anyway despite knowing this for 20 odd years
So binary factor and also favourite vs outsider
Actually that West Ham bet looks alright!
Think I know what you'll say (which is the same as me) but let me check -
Taking your 2 examples, do you instinctively feel your 7/1 fav National horse has a better or worse chance of winning than your 7/1 West Ham nag?
Oh 100% better
Right. Yes, ditto. (We'll assume no bias due to WH being your team and so you'd feel the same if it were say Palace.)
Interesting that this directly conflicts with 2 old gambling sayings -
"The bigger the field the bigger the certainty."
"Always take the big odds on a 2 horse race."
I support The Arsenal!
No, West Ham.
What do you mean?
I've assessed you as being West Ham - like Russell Brand and Ray Winstone.
Haha oh no! I don’t really like either of those two much, in fact I quite dislike Russell Brand
Red herring, that one. You DO like Ray Winstone, I think. We even once discussed him as a possible Mayor of London.
Yebbut... electproject is showing 488,150 early votes in Maimi-Dade to date. I can't see a split by voter registration, sadly but 360k votes missing from that tweet above.
The tweet is in-person early voting only, excluding the much bigger mail votes.
This stuff is quite hard to interpret unless you really know your stuff, but I am a bit surprised to see the low turnout so far in key Dem areas like Miami-Dade.
Edit: And Jay's Twitter profile doesn't inspire confidence.
This site has a blind spot when it comes to data that isn't good for Biden.
I wonder how long we'll continue allowing EU passport holders to use our e-gates.....
Their reasoning seems stupid. I just went through Naples e-gates and they allowed a bunch of non-EU countries through there like Australia, USA and others where there is no specific trade deal. It just seems like another one of those "leaving must have consequences" decisions that doesn't apply to those who weren't ever in it.
Technically, don't they need a data sharing agreement in place - which they have with US, etc? Not complex (and something they would clearly want given their dependence on UK tourism), but will need be agreed.
Yes, that was my point, sharing of passport and entry data isn't something reserved for EU or EEA countries. As I said, it seems to be another one of these "must have consequences for leaving" that don't apply if you were never in it.
I'm reminded of the scene in DS9 where Eddington is telling Sisko that the Federation hates the Maquis because they dared to leave the Federation.
Meanwhile the Black vote seems to be moving more to Trump relative to 2016 which could be pivotal in Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina which have above average percentages of African American voters
Come on. If you obtained variance like that, you'd junk your methodology. 24% to 46% in 3 days in the absence of a war or 9/11 type event? Malarkey.
I suspect that both Rasmussen and Trafalgar are basically trousering money from GOP backers to keep producing "polls" that make it look like they are still in the race.
Rasmussen was the only pollster projecting a GOP lead in the mid-terms. They lost by 8.4%.
Rasmussen are the only pollster telling us Trump has a positive approval rating whilst everyone else has a disapproval rating of around 7 to 20%.
There are very good reasons these too are graded as C/ C- pollsters.
Rasmussen final 2016 national poll Clinton +2%
Result Clinton +2%
More recently, mid-terms Rasmussen GOP +1, Actual result Dems +8.4%.
Massive Fail
To be fair to Rasmussen - and @HYFUD (who quite frankly should be congratulated for taking the sh1t he does):
If you look at the 2018 voter numbers, what happened was that Democrats turned out in similar numbers to 2016 but the Republican number fell by (memory serves me right) 10m+. It could have been that where Rasmussen got it wrong was assuming that 2018 would see a relatively similar to turnout to mid-year campaigns when compared to 2014.
Early voting is traditionally dominated by OLDER voters. SO fact that that early voting by younger voters is lagging behind EV by geezers is NOT a surprising development.
(a) the NC votes are for both In Person and Mail In. and (b) the underperformance is very significant - 22% of votes so far vs 40% of the electorate. Given how many people have voted in NC so far, are you really saying the 40 and under vote is going to recover that much on election day? Note also these were the people who were supposedly more vehement about getting rid of Trump.
Theory - I suspect the closure of many college campuses is hitting the younger cohort votes, which is disadvantageous for Biden
Meanwhile the Black vote seems to be moving more to Trump relative to 2016 which could be pivotal in Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina which have above average percentages of African American voters
Come on. If you obtained variance like that, you'd junk your methodology. 24% to 46% in 3 days in the absence of a war or 9/11 type event? Malarkey.
I suspect that both Rasmussen and Trafalgar are basically trousering money from GOP backers to keep producing "polls" that make it look like they are still in the race.
Rasmussen was the only pollster projecting a GOP lead in the mid-terms. They lost by 8.4%.
Rasmussen are the only pollster telling us Trump has a positive approval rating whilst everyone else has a disapproval rating of around 7 to 20%.
There are very good reasons these too are graded as C/ C- pollsters.
Rasmussen final 2016 national poll Clinton +2%
Result Clinton +2%
More recently, mid-terms Rasmussen GOP +1, Actual result Dems +8.4%.
Massive Fail
To be fair to Rasmussen - and @HYFUD (who quite frankly should be congratulated for taking the sh1t he does):
If you look at the 2018 voter numbers, what happened was that Democrats turned out in similar numbers to 2016 but the Republican number fell by (memory serves me right) 10m+. It could have been that where Rasmussen got it wrong was assuming that 2018 would see a relatively similar to turnout to mid-year campaigns when compared to 2014.
Prince Charles just ensured Australia becomes a republic.
The Prince of Wales gave his support to the governor-general of Australia over the sacking of the country’s prime minister in 1975, newly-released private letters have revealed.
The dismissal of Gough Whitlam’s government by Sir John Kerr, the Queen’s representative, was one of Australia’s most controversial episodes.
Papers released this year showed that the Queen took no part in the sacking of the Labor prime minister, which plunged Australia into a constitutional crisis. However, the letters reveal that Prince Charles was the first member of the royal family to back Sir John.
The dismissal was the result of a political impasse after Mr Whitlam’s government had been rocked by scandals and an economic crisis. The opposition urged Sir John to sack Mr Whitlam unless he agreed to call an election.
In March 1976, four months after the sacking, the prince, aged 27, wrote to express sympathy for the governor-general. “Please don’t lose heart,” he wrote. “What you did last year was right and the courageous thing to do — and most Australians seemed to endorse your decision when it came to the point.”
The monarchy post HMQ can survive by being completely crap. Charles has worked at this theme all his life. Lord knows how he'll get over being Charles III. No, no I'm Henry IX? I don't see it.
I would go out of my way to help our future king, so perhaps there's help, of good sorts, available.
Yebbut... electproject is showing 488,150 early votes in Maimi-Dade to date. I can't see a split by voter registration, sadly but 360k votes missing from that tweet above.
The tweet is in-person early voting only, excluding the much bigger mail votes.
This stuff is quite hard to interpret unless you really know your stuff, but I am a bit surprised to see the low turnout so far in key Dem areas like Miami-Dade.
Edit: And Jay's Twitter profile doesn't inspire confidence.
This site has a blind spot when it comes to data that isn't good for Biden.
Jon Ralston is a serious journalist, but I usually associate his expertise with Nevada politics.
The reactions to HYUFD and Mr Ed's posts (and to a lesser extent Contrarian's) on US politics rather proves there is not a blind spot for this type of data - high degree of skepticism of numbers that are so far outside of the norm, and some sweaty palms maybe, but blindspot I think not.
Edit: Ooops. See the tweet is from a Jay to Ralston Reports, not from Jon Ralston at Ralston Reports.
I wonder how long we'll continue allowing EU passport holders to use our e-gates.....
Their reasoning seems stupid. I just went through Naples e-gates and they allowed a bunch of non-EU countries through there like Australia, USA and others where there is no specific trade deal. It just seems like another one of those "leaving must have consequences" decisions that doesn't apply to those who weren't ever in it.
Technically, don't they need a data sharing agreement in place - which they have with US, etc? Not complex (and something they would clearly want given their dependence on UK tourism), but will need be agreed.
Yes, that was my point, sharing of passport and entry data isn't something reserved for EU or EEA countries. As I said, it seems to be another one of these "must have consequences for leaving" that don't apply if you were never in it.
I'm reminded of the scene in DS9 where Eddington is telling Sisko that the Federation hates the Maquis because they dared to leave the Federation.
I'd be willing to bet that it will actually end up being sorted by the start of next year - simply because whatever the Commission says, common sense will prevail. (I may, of course, be completely wrong.)
"Police in England will attempt to turn around drivers making non-essential journeys out of Wales during the nation's 17-day firebreak lockdown.
Gloucestershire Constabulary confirmed they would patrol routes into the Forest of Dean area, on the England-Wales border, and pull over vehicles they suspected of making long journeys.
If the drivers turn out to have driven out of Wales without a valid excuse they will be asked to turn around, the force said, and if they refuse they will then be reported to police in Wales."
I wonder how long we'll continue allowing EU passport holders to use our e-gates.....
Their reasoning seems stupid. I just went through Naples e-gates and they allowed a bunch of non-EU countries through there like Australia, USA and others where there is no specific trade deal. It just seems like another one of those "leaving must have consequences" decisions that doesn't apply to those who weren't ever in it.
Technically, don't they need a data sharing agreement in place - which they have with US, etc? Not complex (and something they would clearly want given their dependence on UK tourism), but will need be agreed.
Yes, that was my point, sharing of passport and entry data isn't something reserved for EU or EEA countries. As I said, it seems to be another one of these "must have consequences for leaving" that don't apply if you were never in it.
I'm reminded of the scene in DS9 where Eddington is telling Sisko that the Federation hates the Maquis because they dared to leave the Federation.
Surely it's simply an inevitable consequence of No Deal. If there's no deal, there is no deal, so inter alia there's no data sharing agreement. The EU don't need to do anything, the 'consequences' arise by the UK's choice and the effluxion of time through Boris's brain-dead self-imposed deadline. They'll just wait for the UK to come to its senses and realise that, actually, it does need a deal, and that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.
Yebbut... electproject is showing 488,150 early votes in Maimi-Dade to date. I can't see a split by voter registration, sadly but 360k votes missing from that tweet above.
The tweet is in-person early voting only, excluding the much bigger mail votes.
This stuff is quite hard to interpret unless you really know your stuff, but I am a bit surprised to see the low turnout so far in key Dem areas like Miami-Dade.
Edit: And Jay's Twitter profile doesn't inspire confidence.
This site has a blind spot when it comes to data that isn't good for Biden.
Jon Ralston is a serious journalist, but I usually associate his expertise with Nevada politics.
The reactions to HYUFD and Mr Ed's posts (and to a lesser extent Contrarian's) on US politics rather proves there is not a blind spot for this type of data - high degree of skepticism of numbers that are so far outside of the norm, and some sweaty palms maybe, but blindspot I think not.
I'd agree with that, I think most on here take numbers that are good for Trump than they would vs numbers that are good for Biden - +1 leads for Trump get far more scrutinised than polls with +16 leads for Biden.
On Ralston, agree he is more Nevada, Somebody has just tweeted in reply to him about Miami, which I thought looked interesting and others have mentioned. As have just posted, Ralston's tone on Biden keeping Nevada seems like certain than he has been
That's only in person early voting. Add in mail in votes and you have
220K Dems 145K Republicans
Clinton won Miami-Date by 290K votes. If IPEV stays at that ratio, and the Republicans turn out more on the day, then Biden is looking at a lot of lost votes he needs to recapture
One thing that's really weird about the US is how slow the mail service is. I'm testing a print on demand service right now for my business. A postcard was mailed - First Class - from Minneapolis to my home last Wednesday. As of end Thursday (as in end yesterday) it still hadn't arrived.
I wonder how long we'll continue allowing EU passport holders to use our e-gates.....
Their reasoning seems stupid. I just went through Naples e-gates and they allowed a bunch of non-EU countries through there like Australia, USA and others where there is no specific trade deal. It just seems like another one of those "leaving must have consequences" decisions that doesn't apply to those who weren't ever in it.
Technically, don't they need a data sharing agreement in place - which they have with US, etc? Not complex (and something they would clearly want given their dependence on UK tourism), but will need be agreed.
Yes, that was my point, sharing of passport and entry data isn't something reserved for EU or EEA countries. As I said, it seems to be another one of these "must have consequences for leaving" that don't apply if you were never in it.
I'm reminded of the scene in DS9 where Eddington is telling Sisko that the Federation hates the Maquis because they dared to leave the Federation.
Surely it's simply an inevitable consequence of No Deal. If there's no deal, there is no deal, so inter alia there's no data sharing agreement. The EU don't need to do anything, the 'consequences' arise by the UK's choice and the effluxion of time through Boris's brain-dead self-imposed deadline. They'll just wait for the UK to come to its senses and realise that, actually, it does need a deal, and that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.
From the article it sounds as though this was happening deal or no deal.
Prince Charles just ensured Australia becomes a republic.
The Prince of Wales gave his support to the governor-general of Australia over the sacking of the country’s prime minister in 1975, newly-released private letters have revealed.
The dismissal of Gough Whitlam’s government by Sir John Kerr, the Queen’s representative, was one of Australia’s most controversial episodes.
Papers released this year showed that the Queen took no part in the sacking of the Labor prime minister, which plunged Australia into a constitutional crisis. However, the letters reveal that Prince Charles was the first member of the royal family to back Sir John.
The dismissal was the result of a political impasse after Mr Whitlam’s government had been rocked by scandals and an economic crisis. The opposition urged Sir John to sack Mr Whitlam unless he agreed to call an election.
In March 1976, four months after the sacking, the prince, aged 27, wrote to express sympathy for the governor-general. “Please don’t lose heart,” he wrote. “What you did last year was right and the courageous thing to do — and most Australians seemed to endorse your decision when it came to the point.”
The monarchy post HMQ can survive by being completely crap. Charles has worked at this theme all his life. Lord knows how he'll get over being Charles III. No, no I'm Henry IX? I don't see it.
I would go out of my way to help our future king, so perhaps there's help, of good sorts, available.
IIRC he wants to go with George....
He actually has to be Charles III though. There's not the slightest chance that becoming George or Reg, Matilda, or Trevor will wash with the British public.
One thing - Registered voter split in Dade isn't nearly as Democrat as everyone assumes; NPAs tend to break heavily for them in that county I believe. The Florida and Nevada voting is going the same way. Whopping Democrat mail in leads being cut into by in person GOP votes.
Both states have a history of early voting, including crucially in person, so GOP turnout on the day isn't going to be nearly as lopsided as other states.
I wonder how long we'll continue allowing EU passport holders to use our e-gates.....
Their reasoning seems stupid. I just went through Naples e-gates and they allowed a bunch of non-EU countries through there like Australia, USA and others where there is no specific trade deal. It just seems like another one of those "leaving must have consequences" decisions that doesn't apply to those who weren't ever in it.
Technically, don't they need a data sharing agreement in place - which they have with US, etc? Not complex (and something they would clearly want given their dependence on UK tourism), but will need be agreed.
Yes, that was my point, sharing of passport and entry data isn't something reserved for EU or EEA countries. As I said, it seems to be another one of these "must have consequences for leaving" that don't apply if you were never in it.
I'm reminded of the scene in DS9 where Eddington is telling Sisko that the Federation hates the Maquis because they dared to leave the Federation.
Surely it's simply an inevitable consequence of No Deal. If there's no deal, there is no deal, so inter alia there's no data sharing agreement. The EU don't need to do anything, the 'consequences' arise by the UK's choice and the effluxion of time through Boris's brain-dead self-imposed deadline. They'll just wait for the UK to come to its senses and realise that, actually, it does need a deal, and that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.
Even in a no deal scenario there will be a lot of smaller deals agreed very quickly, especially wrt aviation and travel.
If nothing is agreed until everything is agreed then how is it possible for Australian citizens to go through e-gates in Naples despite no formal trade deal having been agreed between the EU and Australia?
Tbh, this really is their loss as pissing off British tourists is probably not in their interests.
The pattern in the ONS data shows decreases in young age groups and increases in older age groups.
If that's established community spread among the older group then that's bad. If it's old folk catching it directly from the young 'uns, then you'd expect the rates for old folk to follow the young age groups down.
That's only in person early voting. Add in mail in votes and you have
220K Dems 145K Republicans
Clinton won Miami-Date by 290K votes. If IPEV stays at that ratio, and the Republicans turn out more on the day, then Biden is looking at a lot of lost votes he needs to recapture
One thing that's really weird about the US is how slow the mail service is. I'm testing a print on demand service right now for my business. A postcard was mailed - First Class - from Minneapolis to my home last Wednesday. As of end Thursday (as in end yesterday) it still hadn't arrived.
Aren't most "mail" voters using dropboxes... ? I'd have thought in state mail *should* be a bit quicker too.
"Police in England will attempt to turn around drivers making non-essential journeys out of Wales during the nation's 17-day firebreak lockdown.
Gloucestershire Constabulary confirmed they would patrol routes into the Forest of Dean area, on the England-Wales border, and pull over vehicles they suspected of making long journeys.
If the drivers turn out to have driven out of Wales without a valid excuse they will be asked to turn around, the force said, and if they refuse they will then be reported to police in Wales."
He makes a dash for freedom to buy his Tesco socks, and is arrested by the English police (!) who hand him over to Drakeford.
I know🤔
In 12 minutes we are living in a country where the First Minister and his team are deciding what can and cannot be sold in supermarkets. How Soviet Bloc circa 1981.
A land where one assumes it will be illegal to buy a toilet seat from a physical site as it’s not “essential”, or indeed bed linen, or spades ( except from an agricultural store of course). Where does paint lie in this new world I ask, or weed killer, or nails? Presumably the Covid commissariat for the People’s Essential Goods will issue a diktat today and enlighten us.
On the other hand as far as I’m aware doughnuts, digestive biscuits, cigarettes and gin are all freely available and are deemed essential.
All of the above is because one assumes the Welsh Govt has unique insight and evidence that buying frozen peas on aisle 7 at Asda is Covid safe whereas loitering for15 seconds on aisle 8 to buy a frying pan risks a superspreader event. So that’s fine then.
It’s fair because it evenly screws hairdressers in Pembroke ( very low Covid area) and RCT ( high Covid area), it’s also fair because it evens out the playing field between nice, community mom and pop stores next to Abercwmtwch miners’ welfare hall (bless) and evil, big business based in England (bastards). It evenly screws the Welsh workforce and consumer and of course best of all has no likely effect on the virus at all.
This policy would I’m sure be approved of by Amazon who are probably seeking new ways to chart the rise in their share price, if only they could stop laughing long enough.
But I think you also need to look at the other side of the coin. If you spend any time in rural and small town America, then you will see hundreds of Trump-Pence posters and flags. And we're not talking about small ones, we're talking about enormous ones.
You can't spend anytime outside a big city and not think "wow, there's an enormous amount of support for Trump in the US"
But what this means is that people in Holbrook, AZ would probably be unwilling to publicly admit they might vote Biden. They simply won't come across public Biden supporters in real life.
I wonder how long we'll continue allowing EU passport holders to use our e-gates.....
Their reasoning seems stupid. I just went through Naples e-gates and they allowed a bunch of non-EU countries through there like Australia, USA and others where there is no specific trade deal. It just seems like another one of those "leaving must have consequences" decisions that doesn't apply to those who weren't ever in it.
Technically, don't they need a data sharing agreement in place - which they have with US, etc? Not complex (and something they would clearly want given their dependence on UK tourism), but will need be agreed.
Yes, that was my point, sharing of passport and entry data isn't something reserved for EU or EEA countries. As I said, it seems to be another one of these "must have consequences for leaving" that don't apply if you were never in it.
I'm reminded of the scene in DS9 where Eddington is telling Sisko that the Federation hates the Maquis because they dared to leave the Federation.
Surely it's simply an inevitable consequence of No Deal. If there's no deal, there is no deal, so inter alia there's no data sharing agreement. The EU don't need to do anything, the 'consequences' arise by the UK's choice and the effluxion of time through Boris's brain-dead self-imposed deadline. They'll just wait for the UK to come to its senses and realise that, actually, it does need a deal, and that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.
Even in a no deal scenario there will be a lot of smaller deals agreed very quickly, especially wrt aviation and travel.
If nothing is agreed until everything is agreed then how is it possible for Australian citizens to go through e-gates in Naples despite no formal trade deal having been agreed between the EU and Australia?
Tbh, this really is their loss as pissing off British tourists is probably not in their interests.
Quite. The EU mandarins might love the idea of making the British stand in long queues at airports, but the airports themselves - and the local politicians at holiday resorts - will want to make the process as smooth as possible for their customers.
That's only in person early voting. Add in mail in votes and you have
220K Dems 145K Republicans
Clinton won Miami-Date by 290K votes. If IPEV stays at that ratio, and the Republicans turn out more on the day, then Biden is looking at a lot of lost votes he needs to recapture
One thing that's really weird about the US is how slow the mail service is. I'm testing a print on demand service right now for my business. A postcard was mailed - First Class - from Minneapolis to my home last Wednesday. As of end Thursday (as in end yesterday) it still hadn't arrived.
But I think you also need to look at the other side of the coin. If you spend any time in rural and small town America, then you will see hundreds of Trump-Pence posters and flags. And we're not talking about small ones, we're talking about enormous ones.
You can't spend anytime outside a big city and not think "wow, there's an enormous amount of support for Trump in the US"
But what this means is that people in Holbrook, AZ would probably be unwilling to publicly admit they might vote Biden. They simply won't come across public Biden supporters in real life.
Indeed, which is why silent Trumps will not be found in rural areas but in wealthy urban and suburban areas
I just cannot shake off the very strong feeling I have had for a long time that Trump will find a way to win. That may be good news for Biden. I hope so. DYOR.
I wonder how long we'll continue allowing EU passport holders to use our e-gates.....
Their reasoning seems stupid. I just went through Naples e-gates and they allowed a bunch of non-EU countries through there like Australia, USA and others where there is no specific trade deal. It just seems like another one of those "leaving must have consequences" decisions that doesn't apply to those who weren't ever in it.
Technically, don't they need a data sharing agreement in place - which they have with US, etc? Not complex (and something they would clearly want given their dependence on UK tourism), but will need be agreed.
Yes, that was my point, sharing of passport and entry data isn't something reserved for EU or EEA countries. As I said, it seems to be another one of these "must have consequences for leaving" that don't apply if you were never in it.
I'm reminded of the scene in DS9 where Eddington is telling Sisko that the Federation hates the Maquis because they dared to leave the Federation.
Surely it's simply an inevitable consequence of No Deal. If there's no deal, there is no deal, so inter alia there's no data sharing agreement. The EU don't need to do anything, the 'consequences' arise by the UK's choice and the effluxion of time through Boris's brain-dead self-imposed deadline. They'll just wait for the UK to come to its senses and realise that, actually, it does need a deal, and that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.
Even in a no deal scenario there will be a lot of smaller deals agreed very quickly, especially wrt aviation and travel.
If nothing is agreed until everything is agreed then how is it possible for Australian citizens to go through e-gates in Naples despite no formal trade deal having been agreed between the EU and Australia?
Tbh, this really is their loss as pissing off British tourists is probably not in their interests.
In the event of No Deal, then lots of little deals will be agreed in due course, and probably rapidly.
I don't think this is them "punishing" us, I think it's simply a consequence that the data sharing agreement is part of an omnibus of hundreds of things that are theoretically due to be signed on the same day, and if the big signing doesn't happen, then some things are going to be left behind.
Never attribute to malice, that which might be otherwise explained by incompetence.
"“Men consume more political news, but for a lot of them, especially younger men, it’s like a hobby and a sport,” said Eitan Hersh, a professor at Tufts University and the author of “Politics is for Power.” They follow Nate Silver, a statistician and the founder of the website FiveThirtyEight, “like he’s some kind of god.”"
I wonder how long we'll continue allowing EU passport holders to use our e-gates.....
Their reasoning seems stupid. I just went through Naples e-gates and they allowed a bunch of non-EU countries through there like Australia, USA and others where there is no specific trade deal. It just seems like another one of those "leaving must have consequences" decisions that doesn't apply to those who weren't ever in it.
Technically, don't they need a data sharing agreement in place - which they have with US, etc? Not complex (and something they would clearly want given their dependence on UK tourism), but will need be agreed.
Yes, that was my point, sharing of passport and entry data isn't something reserved for EU or EEA countries. As I said, it seems to be another one of these "must have consequences for leaving" that don't apply if you were never in it.
I'm reminded of the scene in DS9 where Eddington is telling Sisko that the Federation hates the Maquis because they dared to leave the Federation.
I'd be willing to bet that it will actually end up being sorted by the start of next year - simply because whatever the Commission says, common sense will prevail. (I may, of course, be completely wrong.)
One would hope, but the EU seems to want to show that there are "consequences" of leaving even if those same terms aren't applied to other third nations. As I've said many times before, on the day after the referendum the whole machinery of government should have started treating the EU as an informal enemy rather than an informal ally, we'd have been much better prepared for now for any eventuality that arises from the deal or if there isn't one. The jiggery pokery with the customs union was a mistake and we should have spent every day from 2016 signing new trade deals with non-EU countries, but between May and Boris we've wasted 4 years. 🤷♂️
I remain very surprised they have even attempted this, given this is a case where the problem of defining essential items (and so not bothering) was even obvious back in March.
It was suggested by the Welsh AM (Russell George) for Montgomeryshire who lives in Welshpool.
Now, Welshpool probably is the kind of rural town for which this policy makes sense (in a limited way). It has a lively and diverse high street, and a couple of supermarkets in open competition with the high street. And probably most people living in Welshpool (& its hinterland) really do use either the small shops or the local supermarkets.
However, as soon as Russell George (who is not very bright) said it was a matter of having a "level playing field", the cause was taken up by Plaid Cymru's Helen Mary Jones (who is not very bright) and swiftly adopted by Labour's Mark Drakeford (who is not very bright).
And now Drakeford and Gething (who is not very bright) are having to defend it. Rather incompetently, in Drakeford's case, if he is suggesting people use amazon.
It was a beautifully baited trap by Russell George that Mark Drakeford fell into. But, I expect it was a complete accident -- even a blind Tory pig can dig up a truffle now and then.
Prince Charles just ensured Australia becomes a republic.
The Prince of Wales gave his support to the governor-general of Australia over the sacking of the country’s prime minister in 1975, newly-released private letters have revealed.
The dismissal of Gough Whitlam’s government by Sir John Kerr, the Queen’s representative, was one of Australia’s most controversial episodes.
Papers released this year showed that the Queen took no part in the sacking of the Labor prime minister, which plunged Australia into a constitutional crisis. However, the letters reveal that Prince Charles was the first member of the royal family to back Sir John.
The dismissal was the result of a political impasse after Mr Whitlam’s government had been rocked by scandals and an economic crisis. The opposition urged Sir John to sack Mr Whitlam unless he agreed to call an election.
In March 1976, four months after the sacking, the prince, aged 27, wrote to express sympathy for the governor-general. “Please don’t lose heart,” he wrote. “What you did last year was right and the courageous thing to do — and most Australians seemed to endorse your decision when it came to the point.”
Eh? He had nothing to do with it it seems so what's the issue? Why would his retrospective approval of the act outrage someone previously on the fence?
As it happens I think they will become a Republic during his reign but what did he do wrong here?
That's only in person early voting. Add in mail in votes and you have
220K Dems 145K Republicans
Clinton won Miami-Date by 290K votes. If IPEV stays at that ratio, and the Republicans turn out more on the day, then Biden is looking at a lot of lost votes he needs to recapture
One thing that's really weird about the US is how slow the mail service is. I'm testing a print on demand service right now for my business. A postcard was mailed - First Class - from Minneapolis to my home last Wednesday. As of end Thursday (as in end yesterday) it still hadn't arrived.
It’s one of the things that the UK is very good at, everywhere else I’ve ever lived has a rubbish postal system by comparison.
The pattern in the ONS data shows decreases in young age groups and increases in older age groups.
If that's established community spread among the older group then that's bad. If it's old folk catching it directly from the young 'uns, then you'd expect the rates for old folk to follow the young age groups down.
If the old folks only catch it from their family, and don’t pass it on, it won’t be so bad in terms of future R.
On the Welsh supermarket thing - don't agree with the non-essential thing but presumably like Amazon they have online sales as well for these goods. Maybe they could open up some in-store terminals so people could do the 2 jobs together! bog roll off the shelf and the toilet seat on-line
No, the rule applies to online supermarket orders in Wales as well -- I just tried to order some party goods for online delivery. Not permitted.
I think the Welsh Tories (who suggested this) have managed to stitch Drakeford up nicely.
Is this a joke? Given that Drakeford was claiming that you can find ways to order things online, how can it possibly be legal to exclude Supermarkets from this?
I wonder how long we'll continue allowing EU passport holders to use our e-gates.....
Their reasoning seems stupid. I just went through Naples e-gates and they allowed a bunch of non-EU countries through there like Australia, USA and others where there is no specific trade deal. It just seems like another one of those "leaving must have consequences" decisions that doesn't apply to those who weren't ever in it.
Technically, don't they need a data sharing agreement in place - which they have with US, etc? Not complex (and something they would clearly want given their dependence on UK tourism), but will need be agreed.
Yes, that was my point, sharing of passport and entry data isn't something reserved for EU or EEA countries. As I said, it seems to be another one of these "must have consequences for leaving" that don't apply if you were never in it.
I'm reminded of the scene in DS9 where Eddington is telling Sisko that the Federation hates the Maquis because they dared to leave the Federation.
Surely it's simply an inevitable consequence of No Deal. If there's no deal, there is no deal, so inter alia there's no data sharing agreement. The EU don't need to do anything, the 'consequences' arise by the UK's choice and the effluxion of time through Boris's brain-dead self-imposed deadline. They'll just wait for the UK to come to its senses and realise that, actually, it does need a deal, and that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.
Even in a no deal scenario there will be a lot of smaller deals agreed very quickly, especially wrt aviation and travel.
If nothing is agreed until everything is agreed then how is it possible for Australian citizens to go through e-gates in Naples despite no formal trade deal having been agreed between the EU and Australia?
Tbh, this really is their loss as pissing off British tourists is probably not in their interests.
In the event of No Deal, then lots of little deals will be agreed in due course, and probably rapidly.
I don't think this is them "punishing" us, I think it's simply a consequence that the data sharing agreement is part of an omnibus of hundreds of things that are theoretically due to be signed on the same day, and if the big signing doesn't happen, then some things are going to be left behind.
Never attribute to malice, that which might be otherwise explained by incompetence.
They are saying that the e-gates won't be available even in the deal scenario, as I said it's their "consequences" stance that is driving this. One imagines the roaming data situation would have been the same had mobile operators been under EU control.
That's only in person early voting. Add in mail in votes and you have
220K Dems 145K Republicans
Clinton won Miami-Date by 290K votes. If IPEV stays at that ratio, and the Republicans turn out more on the day, then Biden is looking at a lot of lost votes he needs to recapture
One thing that's really weird about the US is how slow the mail service is. I'm testing a print on demand service right now for my business. A postcard was mailed - First Class - from Minneapolis to my home last Wednesday. As of end Thursday (as in end yesterday) it still hadn't arrived.
It’s one of the things that the UK is very good at, everywhere else I’ve ever lived has a rubbish postal system by comparison.
If only our track and trace system was as speedy and reliable as the royal mail.
It might be a code for Romanian beggars (by which is meant gypsies).
I'm not sure views would be much different for British rough-sleepers who refuse support - although that would be to use magistrate orders to evict them and put them into emergency accommodation.
But I think you also need to look at the other side of the coin. If you spend any time in rural and small town America, then you will see hundreds of Trump-Pence posters and flags. And we're not talking about small ones, we're talking about enormous ones.
You can't spend anytime outside a big city and not think "wow, there's an enormous amount of support for Trump in the US"
But what this means is that people in Holbrook, AZ would probably be unwilling to publicly admit they might vote Biden. They simply won't come across public Biden supporters in real life.
I think that is true in public life @rcs1000 but I don't think they would lie to the pollsters. What Ashcroft has highlighted is people who are trump supporters and who are actually lying. It is why I'm always sceptical if I see a Biden lead but a large number of DKs
Assuming everyone in North Carolina is voting exactly in proportion to how they voted in 2016 on a County level Trump currently leads by 56,000 votes
That sounds like very bad news for Biden - you’d expect him to be well ahead given the the preponderance of Dems in early voting.
But 44% of registered Democrats have already voted in NC vs 37% of Republicans. 1,125,000 Democrats have voted in NC, vs 784,000 Republicans.
North Carolina is one of the few remaining states where the ancestral Dem vote is not insignificant, that is especially true since the early vote is skewing older voter.
"Police in England will attempt to turn around drivers making non-essential journeys out of Wales during the nation's 17-day firebreak lockdown.
Gloucestershire Constabulary confirmed they would patrol routes into the Forest of Dean area, on the England-Wales border, and pull over vehicles they suspected of making long journeys.
If the drivers turn out to have driven out of Wales without a valid excuse they will be asked to turn around, the force said, and if they refuse they will then be reported to police in Wales."
He makes a dash for freedom to buy his Tesco socks, and is arrested by the English police (!) who hand him over to Drakeford.
I know🤔
In 12 minutes we are living in a country where the First Minister and his team are deciding what can and cannot be sold in supermarkets. How Soviet Bloc circa 1981.
Did they decide what went on the shelves or just have nothing else to put on them?
But I think you also need to look at the other side of the coin. If you spend any time in rural and small town America, then you will see hundreds of Trump-Pence posters and flags. And we're not talking about small ones, we're talking about enormous ones.
You can't spend anytime outside a big city and not think "wow, there's an enormous amount of support for Trump in the US"
But what this means is that people in Holbrook, AZ would probably be unwilling to publicly admit they might vote Biden. They simply won't come across public Biden supporters in real life.
The implication of the self-gerrymander argument is that there are more Democrat voters in majority Republican areas than vice versa. So you can make an argument for more shy-Biden voters on that basis.
On the other hand, even Fox News has been critical of Trump at times recently, and I received a very anti-Trump email from the CEO of expensify this morning (nothing so far from the pro-Trump CEO of Salesforce). So you could argue that the general atmosphere is more anti-Trump, and Trump voters have a strong victim complex.
That's only in person early voting. Add in mail in votes and you have
220K Dems 145K Republicans
Clinton won Miami-Date by 290K votes. If IPEV stays at that ratio, and the Republicans turn out more on the day, then Biden is looking at a lot of lost votes he needs to recapture
There are 344k mailed ballots that have been received but not processed yet in miami-dade.
That's only in person early voting. Add in mail in votes and you have
220K Dems 145K Republicans
Clinton won Miami-Date by 290K votes. If IPEV stays at that ratio, and the Republicans turn out more on the day, then Biden is looking at a lot of lost votes he needs to recapture
One thing that's really weird about the US is how slow the mail service is. I'm testing a print on demand service right now for my business. A postcard was mailed - First Class - from Minneapolis to my home last Wednesday. As of end Thursday (as in end yesterday) it still hadn't arrived.
Just getting some quotes for goods to be delivered by FedEx across the US - it is amazing how much you save if you are prepared to wait a day or two
Prince Charles just ensured Australia becomes a republic.
The Prince of Wales gave his support to the governor-general of Australia over the sacking of the country’s prime minister in 1975, newly-released private letters have revealed.
The dismissal of Gough Whitlam’s government by Sir John Kerr, the Queen’s representative, was one of Australia’s most controversial episodes.
Papers released this year showed that the Queen took no part in the sacking of the Labor prime minister, which plunged Australia into a constitutional crisis. However, the letters reveal that Prince Charles was the first member of the royal family to back Sir John.
The dismissal was the result of a political impasse after Mr Whitlam’s government had been rocked by scandals and an economic crisis. The opposition urged Sir John to sack Mr Whitlam unless he agreed to call an election.
In March 1976, four months after the sacking, the prince, aged 27, wrote to express sympathy for the governor-general. “Please don’t lose heart,” he wrote. “What you did last year was right and the courageous thing to do — and most Australians seemed to endorse your decision when it came to the point.”
Eh? He had nothing to do with it it seems so what's the issue? Why would his retrospective approval of the act outrage someone previously on the fence?
As it happens I think they will become a Republic during his reign but what did he do wrong here?
Suspicions about the Queen’s role in the affair have long helped to fuel Australia’s republican movement. The papers released this year absolved the Queen of any responsibility. In fact Sir John hid his intentions to sack Mr Whitlam from the Queen. Sir John wrote to Sir Martin Charteris, the Queen’s private secretary: “I decided to take the step I took without informing the Palace in advance . . . it was better for Her Majesty NOT to know.”
However, the revelations will foster resentment among Australia’s republicans that the future king was prepared to back the government’s dismissal.
Even in a no deal scenario there will be a lot of smaller deals agreed very quickly, especially wrt aviation and travel.
If nothing is agreed until everything is agreed then how is it possible for Australian citizens to go through e-gates in Naples despite no formal trade deal having been agreed between the EU and Australia?
Tbh, this really is their loss as pissing off British tourists is probably not in their interests.
I don't think there will be lots of smaller deals agreed if we crash out in acrimony. The EU will unilaterally do whatever it thinks is in its interests (which might well indeed letting tourists through its e-gates, and has already included delays to insisting on EU companies moving some key business out the City), but that will not include anything the UK wants unless they think it's in their interests. Their response will be: come back when you've fully implemented the WA and are ready to discuss the LPF.
"Police in England will attempt to turn around drivers making non-essential journeys out of Wales during the nation's 17-day firebreak lockdown.
Gloucestershire Constabulary confirmed they would patrol routes into the Forest of Dean area, on the England-Wales border, and pull over vehicles they suspected of making long journeys.
If the drivers turn out to have driven out of Wales without a valid excuse they will be asked to turn around, the force said, and if they refuse they will then be reported to police in Wales."
He makes a dash for freedom to buy his Tesco socks, and is arrested by the English police (!) who hand him over to Drakeford.
I know🤔
In 12 minutes we are living in a country where the First Minister and his team are deciding what can and cannot be sold in supermarkets. How Soviet Bloc circa 1981.
A land where one assumes it will be illegal to buy a toilet seat from a physical site as it’s not “essential”, or indeed bed linen, or spades ( except from an agricultural store of course). Where does paint lie in this new world I ask, or weed killer, or nails? Presumably the Covid commissariat for the People’s Essential Goods will issue a diktat today and enlighten us.
On the other hand as far as I’m aware doughnuts, digestive biscuits, cigarettes and gin are all freely available and are deemed essential.
All of the above is because one assumes the Welsh Govt has unique insight and evidence that buying frozen peas on aisle 7 at Asda is Covid safe whereas loitering for15 seconds on aisle 8 to buy a frying pan risks a superspreader event. So that’s fine then.
It’s fair because it evenly screws hairdressers in Pembroke ( very low Covid area) and RCT ( high Covid area), it’s also fair because it evens out the playing field between nice, community mom and pop stores next to Abercwmtwch miners’ welfare hall (bless) and evil, big business based in England (bastards). It evenly screws the Welsh workforce and consumer and of course best of all has no likely effect on the virus at all.
This policy would I’m sure be approved of by Amazon who are probably seeking new ways to chart the rise in their share price, if only they could stop laughing long enough.
Personally, I am not too affected about the policy. I mean, it is completely bonkers, but there are no large supermarkets anywhere near me.
I am worried about your weekly clothing, toilet seat & paint requirements, of course -- I don't want to appear callous😁
But, I would very definitely object to being questioned by the Sais as to my intentions on crossing the border to annex Shrewsbury.
It will be interesting to see if Drakeford has played this right. His wooly meanderings have so far been quite popular.
One thing - Registered voter split in Dade isn't nearly as Democrat as everyone assumes; NPAs tend to break heavily for them in that county I believe. The Florida and Nevada voting is going the same way. Whopping Democrat mail in leads being cut into by in person GOP votes.
Both states have a history of early voting, including crucially in person, so GOP turnout on the day isn't going to be nearly as lopsided as other states.
Ralston's view is that the Democrats would need a firewall in Clark of around 80K on election day (and c. 54K state wide) to feel comfortable. Depends on the number of ballots out there but the GOP is gaining in early voting every day (even in Clark and Washoe) which is why he is feeling less confident
More mixed, I think, in its general usage. Peppery, sharp, you know the kind of traditional sweet like a Hawick ball or Jeddart snail. I'd say someone to treat with respect: Princess Anne has the same quality, and I've seen the expression used of her.
It traditionally refers to a dram
You go to the bar and ask for a nippy?
Checked. DSL only has it as far back as 1985 in the dram sense. Not sure that is 'traditional' but maybe I am showing my age!
Gsw. 1985 Michael Munro The Patter 49: nippy sweetie A jocular term for a drink of spirits: 'How about a nippy sweetie to finish off?' ... The derivation is from the sense of nippy meaning sharp-tasting, burning to the taste, etc.
Heard of a nip but nippy is always derogatory as in nippy sweetie and aimed at females
I wonder how long we'll continue allowing EU passport holders to use our e-gates.....
Their reasoning seems stupid. I just went through Naples e-gates and they allowed a bunch of non-EU countries through there like Australia, USA and others where there is no specific trade deal. It just seems like another one of those "leaving must have consequences" decisions that doesn't apply to those who weren't ever in it.
Technically, don't they need a data sharing agreement in place - which they have with US, etc? Not complex (and something they would clearly want given their dependence on UK tourism), but will need be agreed.
Yes, that was my point, sharing of passport and entry data isn't something reserved for EU or EEA countries. As I said, it seems to be another one of these "must have consequences for leaving" that don't apply if you were never in it.
I'm reminded of the scene in DS9 where Eddington is telling Sisko that the Federation hates the Maquis because they dared to leave the Federation.
Surely it's simply an inevitable consequence of No Deal. If there's no deal, there is no deal, so inter alia there's no data sharing agreement. The EU don't need to do anything, the 'consequences' arise by the UK's choice and the effluxion of time through Boris's brain-dead self-imposed deadline. They'll just wait for the UK to come to its senses and realise that, actually, it does need a deal, and that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.
Even in a no deal scenario there will be a lot of smaller deals agreed very quickly, especially wrt aviation and travel.
If nothing is agreed until everything is agreed then how is it possible for Australian citizens to go through e-gates in Naples despite no formal trade deal having been agreed between the EU and Australia?
Tbh, this really is their loss as pissing off British tourists is probably not in their interests.
Quite. The EU mandarins might love the idea of making the British stand in long queues at airports, but the airports themselves - and the local politicians at holiday resorts - will want to make the process as smooth as possible for their customers.
Applies to a lot of areas. Brexit has already firmed up support for the EU, there's no need to make things any harder for themselves than it needs to be, to ensure the UK is an object lesson.
That's only in person early voting. Add in mail in votes and you have
220K Dems 145K Republicans
Clinton won Miami-Date by 290K votes. If IPEV stays at that ratio, and the Republicans turn out more on the day, then Biden is looking at a lot of lost votes he needs to recapture
IPEV seems to favour the Republicans in Florida. If you look at the data on IPEV and returned mail in votes in the 2020 House primaries in August, the Republicans outnumbered Democrats in IPEV and the Democrats had the advantage in mail in votes. Relative to those primaries the Republican advantage in IPEV is smaller and the Democratic advantage in mail in votes larger, proportionately speaking. More Democrats than Republicans voted early in those primaries, but the Dems' advantage in the general election is even greater, so far at least. I obtained these data following the link on the electproject github page for FL.
That's only in person early voting. Add in mail in votes and you have
220K Dems 145K Republicans
Clinton won Miami-Date by 290K votes. If IPEV stays at that ratio, and the Republicans turn out more on the day, then Biden is looking at a lot of lost votes he needs to recapture
There are 344k mailed ballots that have been received but not processed yet in miami-dade.
No doubt that will help the Dems. But enough to provide the buffer of 2016?
That's only in person early voting. Add in mail in votes and you have
220K Dems 145K Republicans
Clinton won Miami-Date by 290K votes. If IPEV stays at that ratio, and the Republicans turn out more on the day, then Biden is looking at a lot of lost votes he needs to recapture
One thing that's really weird about the US is how slow the mail service is. I'm testing a print on demand service right now for my business. A postcard was mailed - First Class - from Minneapolis to my home last Wednesday. As of end Thursday (as in end yesterday) it still hadn't arrived.
By contrast, I'm astonished at how good it is here. I went on a walk yesterday afternoon (half-day off) exploring a rural disused railway line in a remote part of mid-Hampshire.
I'm talking tiny hamlets of villages with 6-8 houses, a farm, a church, a ridiculously ostentatious old station for all of it (not having seen trains since the 1950s), no post office, no village shop, the school converted to a rentable hall but.. plenty of postboxes.
Repeatedly down the tiniest lanes, wide enough for only one car, I saw immaculately kept ER red postboxes with daily 4pm collections, and one on Saturdays at midday. Most of these were labelled "PRIORITY".
Monkwood, Privett, West Tisted, Ropley.. they were all the same. I must have passed half-a-dozen. And, low and behold, at 4.05pm I saw Postman Pat in his red van faithfully trundling past doing pick-ups and deliveries. The only downside was no black & white cat.
Prince Charles just ensured Australia becomes a republic.
The Prince of Wales gave his support to the governor-general of Australia over the sacking of the country’s prime minister in 1975, newly-released private letters have revealed.
The dismissal of Gough Whitlam’s government by Sir John Kerr, the Queen’s representative, was one of Australia’s most controversial episodes.
Papers released this year showed that the Queen took no part in the sacking of the Labor prime minister, which plunged Australia into a constitutional crisis. However, the letters reveal that Prince Charles was the first member of the royal family to back Sir John.
The dismissal was the result of a political impasse after Mr Whitlam’s government had been rocked by scandals and an economic crisis. The opposition urged Sir John to sack Mr Whitlam unless he agreed to call an election.
In March 1976, four months after the sacking, the prince, aged 27, wrote to express sympathy for the governor-general. “Please don’t lose heart,” he wrote. “What you did last year was right and the courageous thing to do — and most Australians seemed to endorse your decision when it came to the point.”
Eh? He had nothing to do with it it seems so what's the issue? Why would his retrospective approval of the act outrage someone previously on the fence?
As it happens I think they will become a Republic during his reign but what did he do wrong here?
Suspicions about the Queen’s role in the affair have long helped to fuel Australia’s republican movement. The papers released this year absolved the Queen of any responsibility. In fact Sir John hid his intentions to sack Mr Whitlam from the Queen. Sir John wrote to Sir Martin Charteris, the Queen’s private secretary: “I decided to take the step I took without informing the Palace in advance . . . it was better for Her Majesty NOT to know.”
However, the revelations will foster resentment among Australia’s republicans that the future king was prepared to back the government’s dismissal.
I'm still none the wiser. He had no role but once already done he tried to cheer up the governor-general. If that fosters resentment anything will since resentment rises even though he had no part in it.
Even in a no deal scenario there will be a lot of smaller deals agreed very quickly, especially wrt aviation and travel.
If nothing is agreed until everything is agreed then how is it possible for Australian citizens to go through e-gates in Naples despite no formal trade deal having been agreed between the EU and Australia?
Tbh, this really is their loss as pissing off British tourists is probably not in their interests.
I don't think there will be lots of smaller deals agreed if we crash out in acrimony. The EU will unilaterally do whatever it thinks is in its interests (which might well indeed letting tourists through its e-gates, and has already included delays to insisting on EU companies moving some key business out the City), but that will not include anything the UK wants unless they think it's in their interests. Their response will be: come back when you've fully implemented the WA and are ready to discuss the LPF.
If it's the latter scenario then it just becomes a stalemate, I'm not saying it won't happen, it definitely could.
That's only in person early voting. Add in mail in votes and you have
220K Dems 145K Republicans
Clinton won Miami-Date by 290K votes. If IPEV stays at that ratio, and the Republicans turn out more on the day, then Biden is looking at a lot of lost votes he needs to recapture
One thing that's really weird about the US is how slow the mail service is. I'm testing a print on demand service right now for my business. A postcard was mailed - First Class - from Minneapolis to my home last Wednesday. As of end Thursday (as in end yesterday) it still hadn't arrived.
It’s one of the things that the UK is very good at, everywhere else I’ve ever lived has a rubbish postal system by comparison.
The British postal system has long been set up to achieve swift deliveries. Indeed in 19th Century London people expected same day delivery - correspondence “by return of post” - and central London in the 1880s had twelve deliveries daily to achieve this. Even when I started in the City of London sorting office in the 1980s, the local element of the morning collection was targetted internally for delivery with that day’s second delivery, even though this wasn’t considered reliable enough to advertise.
Comments
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html
"We'll have to wait and see."
It really isn't difficult.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/FL.html
Edit:
Also this from floridados.gov
1,682,849 Rep 2,110,366 Dems have voted (FL overall)
https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
If you look at the 2018 voter numbers, what happened was that Democrats turned out in similar numbers to 2016 but the Republican number fell by (memory serves me right) 10m+. It could have been that where Rasmussen got it wrong was assuming that 2018 would see a relatively similar to turnout to mid-year campaigns when compared to 2014.
Also, one thing to bear in mind. In 2018, Gen X and below outvoted older age groups (https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/05/29/gen-z-millennials-and-gen-x-outvoted-older-generations-in-2018-midterms/). If you take NC as a guide, then that is reversed this time round.
It must be hugely annoying to a populist government to find that policies can be dictated by popular footballers and their social media campaigns.
The irony.
So not good news for Trump.
Gloucestershire Constabulary confirmed they would patrol routes into the Forest of Dean area, on the England-Wales border, and pull over vehicles they suspected of making long journeys.
If the drivers turn out to have driven out of Wales without a valid excuse they will be asked to turn around, the force said, and if they refuse they will then be reported to police in Wales."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-54656821
Poor old WelshOwl.
He makes a dash for freedom to buy his Tesco socks, and is arrested by the English police (!) who hand him over to Drakeford.
I would go out of my way to help our future king, so perhaps there's help, of good sorts, available.
1. Republicans tend to vote earlier than Democrats anyway, so fact that early voting by registered Dems is at same rate as for registered Reps is GOOD news for Biden & other Dems.
2. Clear from polling & other evidence that MANY Republican and R-leaning voters are voting THIS election for Biden & other Dems, esp. suburban voters in places like Miami-Dade.
One practical issue is that it is increasingly hard to isolate suspect patients with full wards etc.
Total Voted by Party Registration
Party Count Percent
Democrats 2,110,366 44.2
Republicans 1,682,849 35.3
Minor 56,934 1.2
No Party Affiliation 921,807 19.3
TOTAL 4,771,956 100.0
This stuff is quite hard to interpret unless you really know your stuff, but I am a bit surprised to see the low turnout so far in key Dem areas like Miami-Dade.
Edit: And Jay's Twitter profile doesn't inspire confidence.
https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1319675447265865733?s=21
The other questions, of course, is how the No Party Affiliation vote breaks - if it's 2:1 for the Democrats, then these are good numbers for the Dems. And if it's 2:1 for the Republicans, then it's excellent news for the President.
https://twitter.com/john_actuary/status/1319601548012519425?s=19
I'm reminded of the scene in DS9 where Eddington is telling Sisko that the Federation hates the Maquis because they dared to leave the Federation.
Theory - I suspect the closure of many college campuses is hitting the younger cohort votes, which is disadvantageous for Biden
James Billot"
https://unherd.com/thepost/a-muted-donald-trump-almost-saying-goodbye/
https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1319471599901310978
The reactions to HYUFD and Mr Ed's posts (and to a lesser extent Contrarian's) on US politics rather proves there is not a blind spot for this type of data - high degree of skepticism of numbers that are so far outside of the norm, and some sweaty palms maybe, but blindspot I think not.
Edit: Ooops. See the tweet is from a Jay to Ralston Reports, not from Jon Ralston at Ralston Reports.
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-3
On Ralston, agree he is more Nevada, Somebody has just tweeted in reply to him about Miami, which I thought looked interesting and others have mentioned. As have just posted, Ralston's tone on Biden keeping Nevada seems like certain than he has been
The Florida and Nevada voting is going the same way. Whopping Democrat mail in leads being cut into by in person GOP votes.
Both states have a history of early voting, including crucially in person, so GOP turnout on the day isn't going to be nearly as lopsided as other states.
If nothing is agreed until everything is agreed then how is it possible for Australian citizens to go through e-gates in Naples despite no formal trade deal having been agreed between the EU and Australia?
Tbh, this really is their loss as pissing off British tourists is probably not in their interests.
If that's established community spread among the older group then that's bad. If it's old folk catching it directly from the young 'uns, then you'd expect the rates for old folk to follow the young age groups down.
I'd have thought in state mail *should* be a bit quicker too.
In 12 minutes we are living in a country where the First Minister and his team are deciding what can and cannot be sold in supermarkets. How Soviet Bloc circa 1981.
A land where one assumes it will be illegal to buy a toilet seat from a physical site as it’s not “essential”, or indeed bed linen, or spades ( except from an agricultural store of course). Where does paint lie in this new world I ask, or weed killer, or nails? Presumably the Covid commissariat for the People’s Essential Goods will issue a diktat today and enlighten us.
On the other hand as far as I’m aware doughnuts, digestive biscuits, cigarettes and gin are all freely available and are deemed essential.
All of the above is because one assumes the Welsh Govt has unique insight and evidence that buying frozen peas on aisle 7 at Asda is Covid safe whereas loitering for15 seconds on aisle 8 to buy a frying pan risks a superspreader event. So that’s fine then.
It’s fair because it evenly screws hairdressers in Pembroke ( very low Covid area) and RCT ( high Covid area), it’s also fair because it evens out the playing field between nice, community mom and pop stores next to Abercwmtwch miners’ welfare hall (bless) and evil, big business based in England (bastards). It evenly screws the Welsh workforce and consumer and of course best of all has no likely effect on the virus at all.
This policy would I’m sure be approved of by Amazon who are probably seeking new ways to chart the rise in their share price, if only they could stop laughing long enough.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1319674553572917251?s=20
But I think you also need to look at the other side of the coin. If you spend any time in rural and small town America, then you will see hundreds of Trump-Pence posters and flags. And we're not talking about small ones, we're talking about enormous ones.
You can't spend anytime outside a big city and not think "wow, there's an enormous amount of support for Trump in the US"
But what this means is that people in Holbrook, AZ would probably be unwilling to publicly admit they might vote Biden. They simply won't come across public Biden supporters in real life.
https://twitter.com/mi6rogue/status/1319525341615017987?s=21
I don't think this is them "punishing" us, I think it's simply a consequence that the data sharing agreement is part of an omnibus of hundreds of things that are theoretically due to be signed on the same day, and if the big signing doesn't happen, then some things are going to be left behind.
Never attribute to malice, that which might be otherwise explained by incompetence.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/23/opinion/gender-gap-2020-election.html
As it happens I think they will become a Republic during his reign but what did he do wrong here?
Macron probably wants 5% cut whereas Boris probably wants 40-50% cut.
They'll settle for something like 25%.
A group of such has just, with some considerable violence, evicted the domestic rough sleepers from the local high street, to take over their pitches.
I'm not sure views would be much different for British rough-sleepers who refuse support - although that would be to use magistrate orders to evict them and put them into emergency accommodation.
On the other hand, even Fox News has been critical of Trump at times recently, and I received a very anti-Trump email from the CEO of expensify this morning (nothing so far from the pro-Trump CEO of Salesforce). So you could argue that the general atmosphere is more anti-Trump, and Trump voters have a strong victim complex.
https://twitter.com/anitathetweeter/status/1319365204023660545/photo/1
https://twitter.com/anitathetweeter/status/1319365423884795905/photo/1
However, the revelations will foster resentment among Australia’s republicans that the future king was prepared to back the government’s dismissal.
I am worried about your weekly clothing, toilet seat & paint requirements, of course -- I don't want to appear callous😁
But, I would very definitely object to being questioned by the Sais as to my intentions on crossing the border to annex
Shrewsbury.
It will be interesting to see if Drakeford has played this right. His wooly meanderings have so far been quite popular.
https://twitter.com/williemillersm1/status/1319661569765220352?s=20
The number of councils stepping in (including Lefty Kensington & Chelsea) is going up like the total on a telethon.
And whoever came up with the hashtag eatnowttohelpout was a genius.
I'm talking tiny hamlets of villages with 6-8 houses, a farm, a church, a ridiculously ostentatious old station for all of it (not having seen trains since the 1950s), no post office, no village shop, the school converted to a rentable hall but.. plenty of postboxes.
Repeatedly down the tiniest lanes, wide enough for only one car, I saw immaculately kept ER red postboxes with daily 4pm collections, and one on Saturdays at midday. Most of these were labelled "PRIORITY".
Monkwood, Privett, West Tisted, Ropley.. they were all the same. I must have passed half-a-dozen. And, low and behold, at 4.05pm I saw Postman Pat in his red van faithfully trundling past doing pick-ups and deliveries. The only downside was no black & white cat.
Come home, Robert.
The British postal system has long been set up to achieve swift deliveries. Indeed in 19th Century London people expected same day delivery - correspondence “by return of post” - and central London in the 1880s had twelve deliveries daily to achieve this. Even when I started in the City of London sorting office in the 1980s, the local element of the morning collection was targetted internally for delivery with that day’s second delivery, even though this wasn’t considered reliable enough to advertise.
https://twitter.com/clownabsolute1/status/1319652056781803521?s=12