On the Welsh supermarket thing - don't agree with the non-essential thing but presumably like Amazon they have online sales as well for these goods. Maybe they could open up some in-store terminals so people could do the 2 jobs together! bog roll off the shelf and the toilet seat on-line
No, the rule applies to online supermarket orders in Wales as well -- I just tried to order some party goods for online delivery. Not permitted.
I think the Welsh Tories (who suggested this) have managed to stitch Drakeford up nicely.
We should probably add MI, NV and MN, to spice it up a bit.
BUT... (and I know this is not the Politicalbetting way) I'd simply watch the national lead. 2.5% is the point at which Biden become (marginally) more likely than Trump to win.
And what President Trump needs to see is *movement* (like he did with the IBD/TIPP poll two or three days ago). He needs to see those leads decreasing across the board.
I mean, there is movement. There is a clear narrowing on the 538 national polling average.
6 days ago the lead was 10.7, now it is 9.8 and it moved consistently down through those 6 days.
I would like the market to massively over react and make Biden evens again please.
St Pete and Rasmussen both have 17 - 18% leads for Biden of the vote already in. St Pete thinks Biden wins by 2, Rasmussen has a Trump win.
That's a huge difference when considering the vote already in. Massive.
Differential turnout will be a big, big thing in this election, IMHO.
On the Welsh supermarket thing - don't agree with the non-essential thing but presumably like Amazon they have online sales as well for these goods. Maybe they could open up some in-store terminals so people could do the 2 jobs together! bog roll off the shelf and the toilet seat on-line
No, the rule applies to online supermarket orders in Wales as well -- I just tried to order some party goods for online delivery. Not permitted.
I think the Welsh Tories (who suggested this) have managed to stitch Drakeford up nicely.
You can't even order non-essentials online? Wow.
What is the stated aim of the Welsh government in doing this?
Something something, protect small shops who only sell non-essential items against Tescos and alike just getting all the money....yes that really is supposedly the case.
While also saying if you need something buy it online...that well known small business owner, Mr Bezos, says thanks.
On the Welsh supermarket thing - don't agree with the non-essential thing but presumably like Amazon they have online sales as well for these goods. Maybe they could open up some in-store terminals so people could do the 2 jobs together! bog roll off the shelf and the toilet seat on-line
No, the rule applies to online supermarket orders in Wales as well -- I just tried to order some party goods for online delivery. Not permitted.
I think the Welsh Tories (who suggested this) have managed to stitch Drakeford up nicely.
You can't even order non-essentials online? Wow.
What is the stated aim of the Welsh government in doing this?
Something something, protect small shops who only sell non-essential items....yes that really is supposedly the case.
These small shops with their booming delivery business?
Huh? Self isolated immediately? She didn't drive half the country or take a train down to the Commons and back or host a super-spreader event in her garden? What a rubbish politician!
We should probably add MI, NV and MN, to spice it up a bit.
BUT... (and I know this is not the Politicalbetting way) I'd simply watch the national lead. 2.5% is the point at which Biden become (marginally) more likely than Trump to win.
And what President Trump needs to see is *movement* (like he did with the IBD/TIPP poll two or three days ago). He needs to see those leads decreasing across the board.
Rasmussen has Trump plus three in Florida today.
Dunno you would call that 'movement'
The National polls typically have much shorter polling periods, and the daily trackers (USC and IBD/TIPP are best of all), which means they are quicker to pick up changes.
On the Welsh supermarket thing - don't agree with the non-essential thing but presumably like Amazon they have online sales as well for these goods. Maybe they could open up some in-store terminals so people could do the 2 jobs together! bog roll off the shelf and the toilet seat on-line
No, the rule applies to online supermarket orders in Wales as well -- I just tried to order some party goods for online delivery. Not permitted.
I think the Welsh Tories (who suggested this) have managed to stitch Drakeford up nicely.
That's ridiculous, so the only way to buy non-essential items is Amazon because Tesco can't sell them to you online either. Wtf is this kind of policy.
On the Welsh supermarket thing - don't agree with the non-essential thing but presumably like Amazon they have online sales as well for these goods. Maybe they could open up some in-store terminals so people could do the 2 jobs together! bog roll off the shelf and the toilet seat on-line
No, the rule applies to online supermarket orders in Wales as well -- I just tried to order some party goods for online delivery. Not permitted.
I think the Welsh Tories (who suggested this) have managed to stitch Drakeford up nicely.
You can't even order non-essentials online? Wow.
What is the stated aim of the Welsh government in doing this?
Can we ban HYUFD from posting until a week on Wednesday please!!!
No no. Let him post:
a) It's good to have a counter-view, b) When he's proved laughably wrong we can all enjoy him eating humble-pie and... c) If he turns out to be right, well f*ck-it, we're in the presence of a maverick genius!.
Is he actually forecasting a Trump win though? Last time I asked he was forecasting a Biden win although backing Trump 270-299 for the value. Which is fair enough - I’m doing that too.
HYUFD was a lot closer to the GE 2019 results than most PBers
On the Welsh supermarket thing - don't agree with the non-essential thing but presumably like Amazon they have online sales as well for these goods. Maybe they could open up some in-store terminals so people could do the 2 jobs together! bog roll off the shelf and the toilet seat on-line
No, the rule applies to online supermarket orders in Wales as well -- I just tried to order some party goods for online delivery. Not permitted.
I think the Welsh Tories (who suggested this) have managed to stitch Drakeford up nicely.
You can't even order non-essentials online? Wow.
What is the stated aim of the Welsh government in doing this?
Something something, protect small shops who only sell non-essential items against Tescos and alike just getting all the money....yes that really is supposedly the case.
While also saying if you need something buy it online...that well known small business owner, Mr Bezos, says thanks.
So the idea is to protect the small business who have to close, by stopping the supermarkets selling the same items?
But you can then buy them online straight from China?
Meanwhile the Black vote seems to be moving more to Trump relative to 2016 which could be pivotal in Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina which have above average percentages of African American voters
On the Welsh supermarket thing - don't agree with the non-essential thing but presumably like Amazon they have online sales as well for these goods. Maybe they could open up some in-store terminals so people could do the 2 jobs together! bog roll off the shelf and the toilet seat on-line
No, the rule applies to online supermarket orders in Wales as well -- I just tried to order some party goods for online delivery. Not permitted.
I think the Welsh Tories (who suggested this) have managed to stitch Drakeford up nicely.
You can't even order non-essentials online? Wow.
What is the stated aim of the Welsh government in doing this?
Something something, protect small shops who only sell non-essential items against Tescos and alike just getting all the money....yes that really is supposedly the case.
While also saying if you need something buy it online...that well known small business owner, Mr Bezos, says thanks.
So the idea is to protect the small business who have to close, by stopping the supermarkets selling the same items?
But you can then buy them online straight from China?
Hold on so I can still buy a Nerf gun, but not a microwave.....
This is so lunatic there’s got to be a “clarification” soon shortly?
I mean when Vaughn Gething ( Welsh health minister) was opining in conversation to Kay Burley on Sky earlier that her hair dryer wasn’t essential (but alcohol was), and she was pointing out the length of her hair to his. you felt like screaming for his sake “stop digging”, except of course he couldn’t have even started because presumably he can’t buy a spade at present.
I remain very surprised they have even attempted this, given this is a case where the problem of defining essential items (and so not bothering) was even obvious back in March.
To preserve public health the Welsh need to keep the ban on non-essential shopping going for longer. It wouldn't be safe for Welsh children imprisoned indoors to get access to the PlayStation 5 on 19th November. Imperative that the Welsh Government ("government"? pull the other one) ban its sale to prevent harm to purveyors of stick and top toys.
What always fascinates me about betting, maybe it's just me that sees it this way, is how something with the same chance of happening, happening feels so different, ie Trump as a 2/1 shot winning the election would seem a shock, but if the favourite wins today's 400 at Newbury (Jumaira Bay, currently a 5/2 shot on Betfair) it will be nothing to talk about, despite it being less likely to happen, according to the market, than The Donald retaining the Presidency
I think some of this is to do with binary vs multiple. For example -
Race 1 has 10 runners all at 9/1. Race 2 has 2 runners, fav at 1/9, nag at 9/1.
So, one of the 9/1 shots is bound to come in in Race 1. Therefore this will not feel like much of a surprise to an independent dispassionate observer who has no bet on. But if the 9/1 nag beats the 1/9 "racing certainty" in Race 2, that WILL feel like a real shock.
So here, with the US election, it's like Race 2, a binary 2 horse race, and of course ... I'm going to enjoy this pay off sentence ... Trump is the Nag.
Yeah that is partly it, but it still feels different to be on the 7/1f for the Grand National than it does West Ham tmrw vs City, to me anyway despite knowing this for 20 odd years
So binary factor and also favourite vs outsider
Actually that West Ham bet looks alright!
Think I know what you'll say (which is the same as me) but let me check -
Taking your 2 examples, do you instinctively feel your 7/1 fav National horse has a better or worse chance of winning than your 7/1 West Ham nag?
Man City lost 9 games last season (compared with 12 in the whole of Pep's first three seasons). Yet, they still only lost twice to teams lower than 7th in the table, and they had over 50 shots on goal in those two losses.
With no break between seasons we may get more unusual results, but if you bet on those kind of games each week you'll be losing money.
Conclusions: "We determine that the rule of six and encouraging people to WFH, has seen the average person reduce contacts but these reductions are likely small. There was little suggestion that 10pm closure has affected the number of contacts that participants make outside home, work and school. In contrast to national restrictions, there was a strong suggestion that local restrictions reduced the number of contacts individuals make outside of work and school, though again, this effect was small in comparison to the national lockdown."
Can we ban HYUFD from posting until a week on Wednesday please!!!
No no. Let him post:
a) It's good to have a counter-view, b) When he's proved laughably wrong we can all enjoy him eating humble-pie and... c) If he turns out to be right, well f*ck-it, we're in the presence of a maverick genius!.
Is he actually forecasting a Trump win though? Last time I asked he was forecasting a Biden win although backing Trump 270-299 for the value. Which is fair enough - I’m doing that too.
HYUFD was a lot closer to the GE 2019 results than most PBers
He was, and we all laughed at him banging on about a YouGov outlier which turned out to be accurate. That is why HYUFD claiming a Trump EC win worries me
Even a basic analysis of the data shows the reduction happened under Obama. Trump has just kept them at the low level Obama reduced them to.
Nevetheless, keeping such levels low is an achievement, and not necessarily an easy one given the temptation to get sucked into to various conflicts, if the goal is to stay out of matters.
On the Welsh supermarket thing - don't agree with the non-essential thing but presumably like Amazon they have online sales as well for these goods. Maybe they could open up some in-store terminals so people could do the 2 jobs together! bog roll off the shelf and the toilet seat on-line
No, the rule applies to online supermarket orders in Wales as well -- I just tried to order some party goods for online delivery. Not permitted.
I think the Welsh Tories (who suggested this) have managed to stitch Drakeford up nicely.
You can't even order non-essentials online? Wow.
What is the stated aim of the Welsh government in doing this?
Something something, protect small shops who only sell non-essential items against Tescos and alike just getting all the money....yes that really is supposedly the case.
While also saying if you need something buy it online...that well known small business owner, Mr Bezos, says thanks.
So the idea is to protect the small business who have to close, by stopping the supermarkets selling the same items?
But you can then buy them online straight from China?
That's the one...
And they are sopping online sales as well, or this just over reach by enforcement or stores deciding it is not worthwhile to keep the supply chain for some items open?
Hold on so I can still buy a Nerf gun, but not a microwave.....
This is so lunatic there’s got to be a “clarification” soon shortly?
I mean when Vaughn Gething ( Welsh health minister) was opining in conversation to Kay Burley on Sky earlier that her hair dryer wasn’t essential (but alcohol was), and she was pointing out the length of her hair to his. you felt like screaming for his sake “stop digging”, except of course he couldn’t have even started because presumably he can’t buy a spade at present.
I remain very surprised they have even attempted this, given this is a case where the problem of defining essential items (and so not bothering) was even obvious back in March.
If you recall back in March there were officious pricks going into stores with their clipboards advising that Easter Eggs couldn't be sold. Presumably they should all have been thrown in the bin and that surely would have Saved Lives.
My personal funniest one was when Tesco had a cap of no more than 3 of any item. So I bought 4 separate ales on their usual 4 for £6 deal. "You can only buy three" says till lady. "But they're on a 4-for" I replied. "Didn't you see the sign? No more than 3 of any item". Yes, but these are 4 separate SKUs you numbskull...
Seriously, there is no need to dress rehearse Brexit rationing before January as Shagger seems ready to utterly capitulate now and has picked out the most alluring lipstick for his pig costume.
We should probably add MI, NV and MN, to spice it up a bit.
BUT... (and I know this is not the Politicalbetting way) I'd simply watch the national lead. 2.5% is the point at which Biden become (marginally) more likely than Trump to win.
And what President Trump needs to see is *movement* (like he did with the IBD/TIPP poll two or three days ago). He needs to see those leads decreasing across the board.
Rasmussen has Trump plus three in Florida today.
Dunno you would call that 'movement'
Rasmussen had the GOP in the lead in its final midterm poll when the party went down by 8.3%
Rasmussen had Clinton +2% in their final 2016 poll though
So on that, admittedly limited evidence, they don't look like the ideal pollster to have picked up a big shift to the Democrats.
On the Welsh supermarket thing - don't agree with the non-essential thing but presumably like Amazon they have online sales as well for these goods. Maybe they could open up some in-store terminals so people could do the 2 jobs together! bog roll off the shelf and the toilet seat on-line
No, the rule applies to online supermarket orders in Wales as well -- I just tried to order some party goods for online delivery. Not permitted.
I think the Welsh Tories (who suggested this) have managed to stitch Drakeford up nicely.
You can't even order non-essentials online? Wow.
What is the stated aim of the Welsh government in doing this?
I presume it's because during harsh lockdowns government advises against non essential travel, and if people know there aren't even any non-essentials to buy they won't flout the rule by buying one pint of milk at a time and loads of other crap. But it seems absurd.
We should probably add MI, NV and MN, to spice it up a bit.
BUT... (and I know this is not the Politicalbetting way) I'd simply watch the national lead. 2.5% is the point at which Biden become (marginally) more likely than Trump to win.
And what President Trump needs to see is *movement* (like he did with the IBD/TIPP poll two or three days ago). He needs to see those leads decreasing across the board.
I mean, there is movement. There is a clear narrowing on the 538 national polling average.
6 days ago the lead was 10.7, now it is 9.8 and it moved consistently down through those 6 days.
I would like the market to massively over react and make Biden evens again please.
At that tremendously rapid rate of decline (0.15% per day), Trump will reach the 2.5% deficit he needs for an equal shot at the electoral college around December 10th, some 48 days from now...
The electoral college meets on the 14th of December so just in the nick of time for Trump.
Hold on so I can still buy a Nerf gun, but not a microwave.....
This is so lunatic there’s got to be a “clarification” soon shortly?
I mean when Vaughn Gething ( Welsh health minister) was opining in conversation to Kay Burley on Sky earlier that her hair dryer wasn’t essential (but alcohol was), and she was pointing out the length of her hair to his. you felt like screaming for his sake “stop digging”, except of course he couldn’t have even started because presumably he can’t buy a spade at present.
I remain very surprised they have even attempted this, given this is a case where the problem of defining essential items (and so not bothering) was even obvious back in March.
If you recall back in March there were officious pricks going into stores with their clipboards advising that Easter Eggs couldn't be sold. Presumably they should all have been thrown in the bin and that surely would have Saved Lives.
My personal funniest one was when Tesco had a cap of no more than 3 of any item. So I bought 4 separate ales on their usual 4 for £6 deal. "You can only buy three" says till lady. "But they're on a 4-for" I replied. "Didn't you see the sign? No more than 3 of any item". Yes, but these are 4 separate SKUs you numbskull...
Seriously, there is no need to dress rehearse Brexit rationing before January as Shagger seems ready to utterly capitulate now and has picked out the most alluring lipstick for his pig costume.
Pretty sure that Easter egg stuff turned out to be a load of crap, I remember being able to buy them in London before, during and after Easter. Officious pricks exist everywhere, best thing to do is simply ignore everything they say or do.
On the Welsh supermarket thing - don't agree with the non-essential thing but presumably like Amazon they have online sales as well for these goods. Maybe they could open up some in-store terminals so people could do the 2 jobs together! bog roll off the shelf and the toilet seat on-line
No, the rule applies to online supermarket orders in Wales as well -- I just tried to order some party goods for online delivery. Not permitted.
I think the Welsh Tories (who suggested this) have managed to stitch Drakeford up nicely.
You can't even order non-essentials online? Wow.
What is the stated aim of the Welsh government in doing this?
Something something, protect small shops who only sell non-essential items against Tescos and alike just getting all the money....yes that really is supposedly the case.
While also saying if you need something buy it online...that well known small business owner, Mr Bezos, says thanks.
If Wales ever gains independence, the red tape is going to be wonderfully eccentric.
Hold on so I can still buy a Nerf gun, but not a microwave.....
This is so lunatic there’s got to be a “clarification” soon shortly?
I mean when Vaughn Gething ( Welsh health minister) was opining in conversation to Kay Burley on Sky earlier that her hair dryer wasn’t essential (but alcohol was), and she was pointing out the length of her hair to his. you felt like screaming for his sake “stop digging”, except of course he couldn’t have even started because presumably he can’t buy a spade at present.
I remain very surprised they have even attempted this, given this is a case where the problem of defining essential items (and so not bothering) was even obvious back in March.
If you recall back in March there were officious pricks going into stores with their clipboards advising that Easter Eggs couldn't be sold. Presumably they should all have been thrown in the bin and that surely would have Saved Lives.
My personal funniest one was when Tesco had a cap of no more than 3 of any item. So I bought 4 separate ales on their usual 4 for £6 deal. "You can only buy three" says till lady. "But they're on a 4-for" I replied. "Didn't you see the sign? No more than 3 of any item". Yes, but these are 4 separate SKUs you numbskull...
Seriously, there is no need to dress rehearse Brexit rationing before January as Shagger seems ready to utterly capitulate now and has picked out the most alluring lipstick for his pig costume.
Pretty sure that Easter egg stuff turned out to be a load of crap, I remember being able to buy them in London before, during and after Easter. Officious pricks exist everywhere, best thing to do is simply ignore everything they say or do.
It was never that officious everywhere, we hear about the exceptions, but it ably demonstrated the problem of the futility of seeking to micromanage 'essentials' in law, since if someone was on an essential trip they could buy anything.
Hold on so I can still buy a Nerf gun, but not a microwave.....
This is so lunatic there’s got to be a “clarification” soon shortly?
I mean when Vaughn Gething ( Welsh health minister) was opining in conversation to Kay Burley on Sky earlier that her hair dryer wasn’t essential (but alcohol was), and she was pointing out the length of her hair to his. you felt like screaming for his sake “stop digging”, except of course he couldn’t have even started because presumably he can’t buy a spade at present.
I remain very surprised they have even attempted this, given this is a case where the problem of defining essential items (and so not bothering) was even obvious back in March.
If you recall back in March there were officious pricks going into stores with their clipboards advising that Easter Eggs couldn't be sold. Presumably they should all have been thrown in the bin and that surely would have Saved Lives.
My personal funniest one was when Tesco had a cap of no more than 3 of any item. So I bought 4 separate ales on their usual 4 for £6 deal. "You can only buy three" says till lady. "But they're on a 4-for" I replied. "Didn't you see the sign? No more than 3 of any item". Yes, but these are 4 separate SKUs you numbskull...
Seriously, there is no need to dress rehearse Brexit rationing before January as Shagger seems ready to utterly capitulate now and has picked out the most alluring lipstick for his pig costume.
Pretty sure that Easter egg stuff turned out to be a load of crap, I remember being able to buy them in London before, during and after Easter. Officious pricks exist everywhere, best thing to do is simply ignore everything they say or do.
On Easter eggs, the only issue was getting hold of them. Stores were often out - apparently at that point they were prioritising other items.
The 3 items thing was a store based attempt to slow down the lunatic hoarding types, IIRC.
According to 538 this is their first poll in any state this cycle, helpfully meaning we have no way of judging their bias other than guessing and looking at the average.
Seriously, there is no need to dress rehearse Brexit rationing before January as Shagger seems ready to utterly capitulate now and has picked out the most alluring lipstick for his pig costume.
According to 538 this is their first poll in any state this cycle, helpfully meaning we have no way of judging their bias other than guessing and looking at the average.
Another guy guessing numbers from his Mom's basement?
On the Welsh supermarket thing - don't agree with the non-essential thing but presumably like Amazon they have online sales as well for these goods. Maybe they could open up some in-store terminals so people could do the 2 jobs together! bog roll off the shelf and the toilet seat on-line
No, the rule applies to online supermarket orders in Wales as well -- I just tried to order some party goods for online delivery. Not permitted.
I think the Welsh Tories (who suggested this) have managed to stitch Drakeford up nicely.
You can't even order non-essentials online? Wow.
What is the stated aim of the Welsh government in doing this?
Hold on so I can still buy a Nerf gun, but not a microwave.....
This is so lunatic there’s got to be a “clarification” soon shortly?
I mean when Vaughn Gething ( Welsh health minister) was opining in conversation to Kay Burley on Sky earlier that her hair dryer wasn’t essential (but alcohol was), and she was pointing out the length of her hair to his. you felt like screaming for his sake “stop digging”, except of course he couldn’t have even started because presumably he can’t buy a spade at present.
I remain very surprised they have even attempted this, given this is a case where the problem of defining essential items (and so not bothering) was even obvious back in March.
If you recall back in March there were officious pricks going into stores with their clipboards advising that Easter Eggs couldn't be sold. Presumably they should all have been thrown in the bin and that surely would have Saved Lives.
My personal funniest one was when Tesco had a cap of no more than 3 of any item. So I bought 4 separate ales on their usual 4 for £6 deal. "You can only buy three" says till lady. "But they're on a 4-for" I replied. "Didn't you see the sign? No more than 3 of any item". Yes, but these are 4 separate SKUs you numbskull...
Seriously, there is no need to dress rehearse Brexit rationing before January as Shagger seems ready to utterly capitulate now and has picked out the most alluring lipstick for his pig costume.
Pretty sure that Easter egg stuff turned out to be a load of crap, I remember being able to buy them in London before, during and after Easter. Officious pricks exist everywhere, best thing to do is simply ignore everything they say or do.
Yeah, that was overzealous police, not the government. This time the government is restricting what you can and cannot buy in shops that are allowed to stay open.
Hold on so I can still buy a Nerf gun, but not a microwave.....
This is so lunatic there’s got to be a “clarification” soon shortly?
I mean when Vaughn Gething ( Welsh health minister) was opining in conversation to Kay Burley on Sky earlier that her hair dryer wasn’t essential (but alcohol was), and she was pointing out the length of her hair to his. you felt like screaming for his sake “stop digging”, except of course he couldn’t have even started because presumably he can’t buy a spade at present.
I remain very surprised they have even attempted this, given this is a case where the problem of defining essential items (and so not bothering) was even obvious back in March.
If you recall back in March there were officious pricks going into stores with their clipboards advising that Easter Eggs couldn't be sold. Presumably they should all have been thrown in the bin and that surely would have Saved Lives.
My personal funniest one was when Tesco had a cap of no more than 3 of any item. So I bought 4 separate ales on their usual 4 for £6 deal. "You can only buy three" says till lady. "But they're on a 4-for" I replied. "Didn't you see the sign? No more than 3 of any item". Yes, but these are 4 separate SKUs you numbskull...
While the guy behind you merrily loaded two 24-packs of Stella on to the conveyor...
Love this. Both The Mill and Il Mulino are quality eating houses in Stokesley. Banning the Scrooge Tories and giving away 100 meals to foodbanks will do them very well in terms of publicity...
Hold on so I can still buy a Nerf gun, but not a microwave.....
This is so lunatic there’s got to be a “clarification” soon shortly?
I mean when Vaughn Gething ( Welsh health minister) was opining in conversation to Kay Burley on Sky earlier that her hair dryer wasn’t essential (but alcohol was), and she was pointing out the length of her hair to his. you felt like screaming for his sake “stop digging”, except of course he couldn’t have even started because presumably he can’t buy a spade at present.
I remain very surprised they have even attempted this, given this is a case where the problem of defining essential items (and so not bothering) was even obvious back in March.
If you recall back in March there were officious pricks going into stores with their clipboards advising that Easter Eggs couldn't be sold. Presumably they should all have been thrown in the bin and that surely would have Saved Lives.
My personal funniest one was when Tesco had a cap of no more than 3 of any item. So I bought 4 separate ales on their usual 4 for £6 deal. "You can only buy three" says till lady. "But they're on a 4-for" I replied. "Didn't you see the sign? No more than 3 of any item". Yes, but these are 4 separate SKUs you numbskull...
Seriously, there is no need to dress rehearse Brexit rationing before January as Shagger seems ready to utterly capitulate now and has picked out the most alluring lipstick for his pig costume.
Pretty sure that Easter egg stuff turned out to be a load of crap, I remember being able to buy them in London before, during and after Easter. Officious pricks exist everywhere, best thing to do is simply ignore everything they say or do.
At Easter it was a small number of individuals over-interpreting the restrictions who were then corrected.
Now it's the First Minister of Wales and businesses are complying.
We should probably add MI, NV and MN, to spice it up a bit.
BUT... (and I know this is not the Politicalbetting way) I'd simply watch the national lead. 2.5% is the point at which Biden become (marginally) more likely than Trump to win.
And what President Trump needs to see is *movement* (like he did with the IBD/TIPP poll two or three days ago). He needs to see those leads decreasing across the board.
I love all the data and chat about the State numbers but the National polling is how I'm doing this too. Unless that centre-of-gravity 9 pt lead narrows to below 6 by 3rd Nov I don't give Trump more than a lightening in a bottle chance.
The largest national polling miss since 1948 was 3.2% in 2012 (when the Democrats were understated). It is - of course - perfectly possible that it is the Democrats who are understated this time around, as polling errors usually oscillate.
But let's assume that there's a 50% chance of a polling error favouring the Republicans, and a 50% chance it's 2% or more. President Trump needs to be 2.5% behind or less to have a 50% chance. Multiplying those up, we get a one-in-eight chance for President Trump if he's 4.5% behind on the day. Given we're currently at one in three for the President, the betting markets are basically saying that President Trump is going to be no more than 2.5% behind in the polls on election day.
Which is perfectly possible, but it does need him to see movement.
Yes the main polls have to shift and soon for him.
I sense that for one reason or another - perhaps the "shy Trumper" notion - the chance of the polls being out and UNDER stating the Biden lead is being given a probability of near zero. Well I'm not doing that. I think it's a real possibility. Hence a spread bet on supremacy quite a bit bigger than my norm.
Where I get my "6" is, if he is behind by less than that, and the polls ARE biased against him - shyness, or lots of his voters living in caves with no tech, or whatever - then perhaps he loses the PV by only about 3, and then, if it all falls for him perfectly like last time, he could squeeze a win in the EC.
Hold on so I can still buy a Nerf gun, but not a microwave.....
This is so lunatic there’s got to be a “clarification” soon shortly?
I mean when Vaughn Gething ( Welsh health minister) was opining in conversation to Kay Burley on Sky earlier that her hair dryer wasn’t essential (but alcohol was), and she was pointing out the length of her hair to his. you felt like screaming for his sake “stop digging”, except of course he couldn’t have even started because presumably he can’t buy a spade at present.
I remain very surprised they have even attempted this, given this is a case where the problem of defining essential items (and so not bothering) was even obvious back in March.
If you recall back in March there were officious pricks going into stores with their clipboards advising that Easter Eggs couldn't be sold. Presumably they should all have been thrown in the bin and that surely would have Saved Lives.
My personal funniest one was when Tesco had a cap of no more than 3 of any item. So I bought 4 separate ales on their usual 4 for £6 deal. "You can only buy three" says till lady. "But they're on a 4-for" I replied. "Didn't you see the sign? No more than 3 of any item". Yes, but these are 4 separate SKUs you numbskull...
Seriously, there is no need to dress rehearse Brexit rationing before January as Shagger seems ready to utterly capitulate now and has picked out the most alluring lipstick for his pig costume.
Pretty sure that Easter egg stuff turned out to be a load of crap, I remember being able to buy them in London before, during and after Easter. Officious pricks exist everywhere, best thing to do is simply ignore everything they say or do.
Yeah, that was overzealous police, not the government. This time the government is restricting what you can and cannot buy in shops that are allowed to stay open.
I know a guy who works for a police force which bothered dog walkers with drones or something like that during the original lockdown. He was *incredibly* pissed off, because he felt the idiots bothering people well beyond what the law covered undermined him and everyone else who was trying to enforce the actual law and maintain public trust.
I remain very surprised they have even attempted this, given this is a case where the problem of defining essential items (and so not bothering) was even obvious back in March.
It was suggested by the Welsh AM (Russell George) for Montgomeryshire who lives in Welshpool.
Now, Welshpool probably is the kind of rural town for which this policy makes sense (in a limited way). It has a lively and diverse high street, and a couple of supermarkets in open competition with the high street. And probably most people living in Welshpool (& its hinterland) really do use either the small shops or the local supermarkets.
However, as soon as Russell George (who is not very bright) said it was a matter of having a "level playing field", the cause was taken up by Plaid Cymru's Helen Mary Jones (who is not very bright) and swiftly adopted by Labour's Mark Drakeford (who is not very bright).
And now Drakeford and Gething (who is not very bright) are having to defend it. Rather incompetently, in Drakeford's case, if he is suggesting people use amazon.
It was a beautifully baited trap by Russell George that Mark Drakeford fell into. But, I expect it was a complete accident -- even a blind Tory pig can dig up a truffle now and then.
What always fascinates me about betting, maybe it's just me that sees it this way, is how something with the same chance of happening, happening feels so different, ie Trump as a 2/1 shot winning the election would seem a shock, but if the favourite wins today's 400 at Newbury (Jumaira Bay, currently a 5/2 shot on Betfair) it will be nothing to talk about, despite it being less likely to happen, according to the market, than The Donald retaining the Presidency
I think some of this is to do with binary vs multiple. For example -
Race 1 has 10 runners all at 9/1. Race 2 has 2 runners, fav at 1/9, nag at 9/1.
So, one of the 9/1 shots is bound to come in in Race 1. Therefore this will not feel like much of a surprise to an independent dispassionate observer who has no bet on. But if the 9/1 nag beats the 1/9 "racing certainty" in Race 2, that WILL feel like a real shock.
So here, with the US election, it's like Race 2, a binary 2 horse race, and of course ... I'm going to enjoy this pay off sentence ... Trump is the Nag.
Yeah that is partly it, but it still feels different to be on the 7/1f for the Grand National than it does West Ham tmrw vs City, to me anyway despite knowing this for 20 odd years
So binary factor and also favourite vs outsider
Actually that West Ham bet looks alright!
Think I know what you'll say (which is the same as me) but let me check -
Taking your 2 examples, do you instinctively feel your 7/1 fav National horse has a better or worse chance of winning than your 7/1 West Ham nag?
Oh 100% better
Right. Yes, ditto. (We'll assume no bias due to WH being your team and so you'd feel the same if it were say Palace.)
Interesting that this directly conflicts with 2 old gambling sayings -
A question. Apologies if the answer is obvious to a stats person, but how is the r rate table ranked? Ie, by what metric is High Peak top and Sefton bottom? Thank you. And for your continued work in this regard.
Hold on so I can still buy a Nerf gun, but not a microwave.....
This is so lunatic there’s got to be a “clarification” soon shortly?
I mean when Vaughn Gething ( Welsh health minister) was opining in conversation to Kay Burley on Sky earlier that her hair dryer wasn’t essential (but alcohol was), and she was pointing out the length of her hair to his. you felt like screaming for his sake “stop digging”, except of course he couldn’t have even started because presumably he can’t buy a spade at present.
I remain very surprised they have even attempted this, given this is a case where the problem of defining essential items (and so not bothering) was even obvious back in March.
If you recall back in March there were officious pricks going into stores with their clipboards advising that Easter Eggs couldn't be sold. Presumably they should all have been thrown in the bin and that surely would have Saved Lives.
My personal funniest one was when Tesco had a cap of no more than 3 of any item. So I bought 4 separate ales on their usual 4 for £6 deal. "You can only buy three" says till lady. "But they're on a 4-for" I replied. "Didn't you see the sign? No more than 3 of any item". Yes, but these are 4 separate SKUs you numbskull...
While the guy behind you merrily loaded two 24-packs of Stella on to the conveyor...
According to 538 this is their first poll in any state this cycle, helpfully meaning we have no way of judging their bias other than guessing and looking at the average.
Looks at the cross tabs and the black vote is pretty evenly split between Biden and Trump, and the white vote is considerably over represented. Doesn't mean it's wrong, but those are some major red flags.
Assuming everyone in North Carolina is voting exactly in proportion to how they voted in 2016 on a County level Trump currently leads by 56,000 votes
That sounds like very bad news for Biden - you’d expect him to be well ahead given the the preponderance of Dems in early voting.
For the purpose of that calculation Alistair is assuming that everyone who has voted in a county is voting in proportion to 2016 (ie a county that voted 60-40 in 2016 is voting 60-40 in early voting). Therefore the fact that the vote is close is a sign that turnout is higher in Democrat-strong counties than Republican ones.
Whether it's better or worse than you expect depends on what the calculation would say with the polling data on early voting intention.
According to 538 this is their first poll in any state this cycle, helpfully meaning we have no way of judging their bias other than guessing and looking at the average.
Looks at the cross tabs and the black vote is pretty evenly split between Biden and Trump, and the white vote is considerably over represented. Doesn't mean it's wrong, but those are some major red flags.
The poll is also rather old, which makes it even harder to judge.
How the PB Tories laughed at the travails we are experiencing here in Wales. They won't be laughing when I am enjoying a family Christmas while England languishes in Tier 3 over the festive season.
A question. Apologies if the answer is obvious to a stats person, but how is the r rate table ranked? Ie, by what metric is High Peak top and Sefton bottom? Thank you. And for your continued work in this regard.
I'm not at the moment. Ranking by R, when R *can* be massively effected by small population effects is probably not useful - read the table *together* with the one scaled to cases per 100K....
How the PB Tories laughed at the travails we are experiencing here in Wales. They won't be laughing when I am enjoying a family Christmas while England languishes in Tier 3 over the festive season.
I doubt anyone in the UK will be having a large family Christmas gathering.
A question. Apologies if the answer is obvious to a stats person, but how is the r rate table ranked? Ie, by what metric is High Peak top and Sefton bottom? Thank you. And for your continued work in this regard.
I'm not at the moment. Ranking by R, when R *can* be massively effected by small population effects is probably not useful - read the table *together* with the one scaled to cases per 100K....
Love this. Both The Mill and Il Mulino are quality eating houses in Stokesley. Banning the Scrooge Tories and giving away 100 meals to foodbanks will do them very well in terms of publicity...
Completely avoidable own goal and I said previously I would have voted with labour over this policy
How the PB Tories laughed at the travails we are experiencing here in Wales. They won't be laughing when I am enjoying a family Christmas while England languishes in Tier 3 over the festive season.
I doubt anyone in the UK will be having a large family Christmas gathering.
And there was much rejoicing among those who's turn it was to go to the in-laws this year.
Hold on so I can still buy a Nerf gun, but not a microwave.....
This is so lunatic there’s got to be a “clarification” soon shortly?
I mean when Vaughn Gething ( Welsh health minister) was opining in conversation to Kay Burley on Sky earlier that her hair dryer wasn’t essential (but alcohol was), and she was pointing out the length of her hair to his. you felt like screaming for his sake “stop digging”, except of course he couldn’t have even started because presumably he can’t buy a spade at present.
I remain very surprised they have even attempted this, given this is a case where the problem of defining essential items (and so not bothering) was even obvious back in March.
If you recall back in March there were officious pricks going into stores with their clipboards advising that Easter Eggs couldn't be sold. Presumably they should all have been thrown in the bin and that surely would have Saved Lives.
My personal funniest one was when Tesco had a cap of no more than 3 of any item. So I bought 4 separate ales on their usual 4 for £6 deal. "You can only buy three" says till lady. "But they're on a 4-for" I replied. "Didn't you see the sign? No more than 3 of any item". Yes, but these are 4 separate SKUs you numbskull...
While the guy behind you merrily loaded two 24-packs of Stella on to the conveyor...
This epidemic may have been disastrous for the economy as a whole, but it has certainly been a boomtime for anal jobsworths.
How the PB Tories laughed at the travails we are experiencing here in Wales. They won't be laughing when I am enjoying a family Christmas while England languishes in Tier 3 over the festive season.
More fool you, we'll all be doing Christmas anyway. Fuck the government and the scientists that try and cancel it.
How the PB Tories laughed at the travails we are experiencing here in Wales. They won't be laughing when I am enjoying a family Christmas while England languishes in Tier 3 over the festive season.
More fool you, we'll all be doing Christmas anyway. Fuck the government and the scientists that try and cancel it.
My folks (in their eighties) have decided not to join us for Christmas. Just ourselves and Fox jr, and the corona critters.
How the PB Tories laughed at the travails we are experiencing here in Wales. They won't be laughing when I am enjoying a family Christmas while England languishes in Tier 3 over the festive season.
I doubt anyone in the UK will be having a large family Christmas gathering.
According to 538 this is their first poll in any state this cycle, helpfully meaning we have no way of judging their bias other than guessing and looking at the average.
I'm not saying they are sketchy (given they have actual testimonials from actual real politicians) but they have a yahoo.com e-mail address and none of their social media buttons work on their site (and they still have a Google+ button!)
Love this. Both The Mill and Il Mulino are quality eating houses in Stokesley. Banning the Scrooge Tories and giving away 100 meals to foodbanks will do them very well in terms of publicity...
Completely avoidable own goal and I said previously I would have voted with labour over this policy
Yes. Was struck, on the day after the government sprayed yet more billions around with merry abandon, how they somehow managed to get headlines for their miserliness.
@Malmesbury I was thinking that the per 100k heatmap could become a three colour graded one corresponding to each of the tiers, aiui under 150 per week is tier 1, between 150 and 300 is tier 2 and above is tier 3 and maybe change it so it's a trailing 7 days figure rather than individual days.
I wonder how long we'll continue allowing EU passport holders to use our e-gates.....
Their reasoning seems stupid. I just went through Naples e-gates and they allowed a bunch of non-EU countries through there like Australia, USA and others where there is no specific trade deal. It just seems like another one of those "leaving must have consequences" decisions that doesn't apply to those who weren't ever in it.
"We want to have a new set of national rules. Rules that are simpler for everyone to understand and to follow. We are going to go through that over the coming days, and we will then make a direct announcement what that should look like before the firebreak ends so people have time to prepare and get used to those and understand what we are all asking each other to do."
Prince Charles just ensured Australia becomes a republic.
The Prince of Wales gave his support to the governor-general of Australia over the sacking of the country’s prime minister in 1975, newly-released private letters have revealed.
The dismissal of Gough Whitlam’s government by Sir John Kerr, the Queen’s representative, was one of Australia’s most controversial episodes.
Papers released this year showed that the Queen took no part in the sacking of the Labor prime minister, which plunged Australia into a constitutional crisis. However, the letters reveal that Prince Charles was the first member of the royal family to back Sir John.
The dismissal was the result of a political impasse after Mr Whitlam’s government had been rocked by scandals and an economic crisis. The opposition urged Sir John to sack Mr Whitlam unless he agreed to call an election.
In March 1976, four months after the sacking, the prince, aged 27, wrote to express sympathy for the governor-general. “Please don’t lose heart,” he wrote. “What you did last year was right and the courageous thing to do — and most Australians seemed to endorse your decision when it came to the point.”
How the PB Tories laughed at the travails we are experiencing here in Wales. They won't be laughing when I am enjoying a family Christmas while England languishes in Tier 3 over the festive season.
More fool you, we'll all be doing Christmas anyway. Fuck the government and the scientists that try and cancel it.
It has got a little fractious on here over Drakeford's lockdown. My tongue was firmly in my cheek. I apologise for any offence caused. I consider myself red-carded.
Meanwhile the Black vote seems to be moving more to Trump relative to 2016 which could be pivotal in Michigan, Georgia and North Carolina which have above average percentages of African American voters
Come on. If you obtained variance like that, you'd junk your methodology. 24% to 46% in 3 days in the absence of a war or 9/11 type event? Malarkey.
I suspect that both Rasmussen and Trafalgar are basically trousering money from GOP backers to keep producing "polls" that make it look like they are still in the race.
Rasmussen was the only pollster projecting a GOP lead in the mid-terms. They lost by 8.4%.
Rasmussen are the only pollster telling us Trump has a positive approval rating whilst everyone else has a disapproval rating of around 7 to 20%.
There are very good reasons these too are graded as C/ C- pollsters.
Rasmussen final 2016 national poll Clinton +2%
Result Clinton +2%
More recently, mid-terms Rasmussen GOP +1, Actual result Dems +8.4%.
What always fascinates me about betting, maybe it's just me that sees it this way, is how something with the same chance of happening, happening feels so different, ie Trump as a 2/1 shot winning the election would seem a shock, but if the favourite wins today's 400 at Newbury (Jumaira Bay, currently a 5/2 shot on Betfair) it will be nothing to talk about, despite it being less likely to happen, according to the market, than The Donald retaining the Presidency
I think some of this is to do with binary vs multiple. For example -
Race 1 has 10 runners all at 9/1. Race 2 has 2 runners, fav at 1/9, nag at 9/1.
So, one of the 9/1 shots is bound to come in in Race 1. Therefore this will not feel like much of a surprise to an independent dispassionate observer who has no bet on. But if the 9/1 nag beats the 1/9 "racing certainty" in Race 2, that WILL feel like a real shock.
So here, with the US election, it's like Race 2, a binary 2 horse race, and of course ... I'm going to enjoy this pay off sentence ... Trump is the Nag.
Yeah that is partly it, but it still feels different to be on the 7/1f for the Grand National than it does West Ham tmrw vs City, to me anyway despite knowing this for 20 odd years
So binary factor and also favourite vs outsider
Actually that West Ham bet looks alright!
Think I know what you'll say (which is the same as me) but let me check -
Taking your 2 examples, do you instinctively feel your 7/1 fav National horse has a better or worse chance of winning than your 7/1 West Ham nag?
Oh 100% better
Right. Yes, ditto. (We'll assume no bias due to WH being your team and so you'd feel the same if it were say Palace.)
Interesting that this directly conflicts with 2 old gambling sayings -
I'm curious. You may not know this, but. How many of the 10 admissions per day are coming because of severe difficulties from covid? i.e. are some of these patients coming in because of other conditions and are then tested and found to also have covid?
"We want to have a new set of national rules. Rules that are simpler for everyone to understand and to follow. We are going to go through that over the coming days, and we will then make a direct announcement what that should look like before the firebreak ends so people have time to prepare and get used to those and understand what we are all asking each other to do."
Sturgeon has five, Johnson has three. So I assume there will be four tiers?
How the PB Tories laughed at the travails we are experiencing here in Wales. They won't be laughing when I am enjoying a family Christmas while England languishes in Tier 3 over the festive season.
I doubt anyone in the UK will be having a large family Christmas gathering.
Except all those who are already saying they will ignore the government and carry on.
Comments
While also saying if you need something buy it online...that well known small business owner, Mr Bezos, says thanks.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1319616293813866496?s=20
But you can then buy them online straight from China?
With no break between seasons we may get more unusual results, but if you bet on those kind of games each week you'll be losing money.
https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/comix-national-local-restrictions-in-the-UK.html
Conclusions:
"We determine that the rule of six and encouraging people to WFH, has seen the average person reduce contacts but these reductions are likely small. There was little suggestion that 10pm closure has affected the number of contacts that participants make outside home, work and school. In contrast to national restrictions, there was a strong suggestion that local restrictions reduced the number of contacts individuals make outside of work and school, though again, this effect was small in comparison to the national lockdown."
My personal funniest one was when Tesco had a cap of no more than 3 of any item. So I bought 4 separate ales on their usual 4 for £6 deal. "You can only buy three" says till lady. "But they're on a 4-for" I replied. "Didn't you see the sign? No more than 3 of any item". Yes, but these are 4 separate SKUs you numbskull...
Seriously, there is no need to dress rehearse Brexit rationing before January as Shagger seems ready to utterly capitulate now and has picked out the most alluring lipstick for his pig costume.
https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1319656515070996480
The 3 items thing was a store based attempt to slow down the lunatic hoarding types, IIRC.
Love this. Both The Mill and Il Mulino are quality eating houses in Stokesley. Banning the Scrooge Tories and giving away 100 meals to foodbanks will do them very well in terms of publicity...
Now it's the First Minister of Wales and businesses are complying.
I sense that for one reason or another - perhaps the "shy Trumper" notion - the chance of the polls being out and UNDER stating the Biden lead is being given a probability of near zero. Well I'm not doing that. I think it's a real possibility. Hence a spread bet on supremacy quite a bit bigger than my norm.
Where I get my "6" is, if he is behind by less than that, and the polls ARE biased against him - shyness, or lots of his voters living in caves with no tech, or whatever - then perhaps he loses the PV by only about 3, and then, if it all falls for him perfectly like last time, he could squeeze a win in the EC.
UK R from hospital admissions
Now, Welshpool probably is the kind of rural town for which this policy makes sense (in a limited way). It has a lively and diverse high street, and a couple of supermarkets in open competition with the high street. And probably most people living in Welshpool (& its hinterland) really do use either the small shops or the local supermarkets.
However, as soon as Russell George (who is not very bright) said it was a matter of having a "level playing field", the cause was taken up by Plaid Cymru's Helen Mary Jones (who is not very bright) and swiftly adopted by Labour's Mark Drakeford (who is not very bright).
And now Drakeford and Gething (who is not very bright) are having to defend it. Rather incompetently, in Drakeford's case, if he is suggesting people use amazon.
It was a beautifully baited trap by Russell George that Mark Drakeford fell into. But, I expect it was a complete accident -- even a blind Tory pig can dig up a truffle now and then.
Ie, by what metric is High Peak top and Sefton bottom?
Thank you. And for your continued work in this regard.
One Biden +9 one Trump +4
I bet you can guess which is from a B+ pollster other from C/D one
Whether it's better or worse than you expect depends on what the calculation would say with the polling data on early voting intention.
At our peak in April we had about 230 cases, 55 on ICU, and at trough in August 8, none on ICU.
An interesting graphic here by Tier:
https://twitter.com/carlbaker/status/1319635045787774976?s=19
It's a great book. You can find it in the "Myths & Legends" section.
https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/1319670388666830850?s=20
I wonder how long we'll continue allowing EU passport holders to use our e-gates.....
Apologies.
And thanks.
"We still don't know what will happen after November 9. And Welsh health minister Vaughan Gething is not in a position to tell us yet.
When asked during a BBC Radio Wales interview if he could say what was going to happen after the 17-day firebreak lockdown, he answered "No".
https://tinyurl.com/y44nfhzn
More ominously ...
"We want to have a new set of national rules. Rules that are simpler for everyone to understand and to follow. We are going to go through that over the coming days, and we will then make a direct announcement what that should look like before the firebreak ends so people have time to prepare and get used to those and understand what we are all asking each other to do."
Trump tried to bribe my daughter-in-law"
(£)
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/trump-tried-to-bribe-my-daughter-in-law
https://twitter.com/Jay44686912/status/1319651018859147264
The Prince of Wales gave his support to the governor-general of Australia over the sacking of the country’s prime minister in 1975, newly-released private letters have revealed.
The dismissal of Gough Whitlam’s government by Sir John Kerr, the Queen’s representative, was one of Australia’s most controversial episodes.
Papers released this year showed that the Queen took no part in the sacking of the Labor prime minister, which plunged Australia into a constitutional crisis. However, the letters reveal that Prince Charles was the first member of the royal family to back Sir John.
The dismissal was the result of a political impasse after Mr Whitlam’s government had been rocked by scandals and an economic crisis. The opposition urged Sir John to sack Mr Whitlam unless he agreed to call an election.
In March 1976, four months after the sacking, the prince, aged 27, wrote to express sympathy for the governor-general. “Please don’t lose heart,” he wrote. “What you did last year was right and the courageous thing to do — and most Australians seemed to endorse your decision when it came to the point.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/prince-charles-backed-sacking-of-australia-pm-papers-show-wm7gpbw0z
#TakeBackControlFromYourUnelectedRulers
Massive Fail
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
220K Dems
145K Republicans