The post debate betting moves just a touch to Trump – politicalbetting.com
The post debate betting moves just a touch to Trump – politicalbetting.com
The Smarkets chart shows how the Biden-Trump betting has moved following the debate and as can be seen punters are just a touch more confident about the incumbent but there’s really been very little movement.
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https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1319605958037950470?s=20
One thing's for sure, the Guiliani fable about Hunter Biden's alleged hard drive has failed to fly.
Smells fake to me.
24% to 46% in 3 days in the absence of a war or 9/11 type event?
Malarkey.
Hold on so I can still buy a Nerf gun, but not a microwave.....
I was a great supporter of the Republicans under Ronald Reagan, but today it's the Democratic challenger who best embodies his great legacy
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/23/britain-would-better-joe-biden/
Malarkey.
https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/B00IEAFZRG
Seeing the daily figures for the past month (or six) would let you know for sure.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1319632889148035072
One seemed a blast from a bygone age.
The other contemporary.
We could, however, see them fighting out a GE in the 2030's.
I mean when Vaughn Gething ( Welsh health minister) was opining in conversation to Kay Burley on Sky earlier that her hair dryer wasn’t essential (but alcohol was), and she was pointing out the length of her hair to his. you felt like screaming for his sake “stop digging”, except of course he couldn’t have even started because presumably he can’t buy a spade at present.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-issues-that-divide-people-within-each-party/
About half of Republicans support a public health insurance option, a mini green new deal, and UBI. Half also quite soft on immigration issues and think that African Americans face widespread discrimination. Are they in the right party?
Looking at their twitter feed doesn't give confidence in Rasmussen's neutrality. For example:
- A re-tweet of a Trump tweet
- "We'd like to thank @libertynation - Conservative News Where The Truth Matters - for sponsoring our Daily Presidential Tracking Poll this week!"
...sez Tory.
https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/1319384272709570568?s=20
This doesn't mean all of them are or even a majority - in fact it's a larger minority - but it is worth closer inspection and not dismissal.
Trump's debating performance was so powerful it went back in time several days.
Now it’s all very well to laugh at the microwaves being covered up at Asda’s because control freakery has got out of hand in Cardiff bay ( I mean if you can buy beans in aisle 9 why can’t you buy a kettle in aisle 10 if you’re in the shop anyway? How’s that superspreading?), because if I really wanted a microwave or a kettle Mr Bezos will supply. However, what if I’m an 85 year old granny, who’s not too hot on the internet and I just want to make a cup of tea and Drakeford’s banned me from getting a bloody kettle till a fortnight on Monday?
But I feel the same about other examples too, for instance I like to bet on cricket in play, and when my team drifts from EVS to 7/4 after a wicket, I feel like it has very little chance of winning, and have to remind myself it has the same chance as Tiger Woods in his pomp had of winning the next major! That's more momentum I guess
Another nice example... Trump has as much chance of winning as Bruno Fernandes has of scoring a goal vs Chelsea tomorrow (if he plays)!
Unfortunately, though, it seems the people I have sympathy with here do not share any of the same concern about the far bigger avalanche of equally picky segregation and categorisation rules that could face a mixed lorry load at Holyhead in a couple of months' time should the deal escape from reach.
These are the very people who cheerlead for Welsh supermaketing the entire British economy.
Not the fact that Trump will do better which has already been heavily suggested in polling.
Just as I would not question a runner whose 100 m time went from 11 sec. to 10.8.
If it went to 9.2 in three days I would suspect some weapons grade malarkey somewhere.
We should be a bit more humble and objective in assessing the situation and to do so dispassionately.
+ve: there's some evidence the incidence rate growth is starting to slow, particularly amongst young people and certain worse-hit regions like the North East
-ve: we're up to around 35,000 cases per day in England alone (up to 16 October), so even if the pace of growth slows, it will remain at a high level. In addition, there is evidence that infection rates are growing among the older age groups most at risk, so the increase in hospitalisations and deaths is likely to take a while to fully catch-up.
But presenting ridiculously large trends in subsamples without a health warning is not part of that. Rasmussen charge for access to their crosstabs, so you can't check whether there's a simple observation bias at work in presenting random data as a trend.
No Republican has managed that in the modern era, let alone one who tacitly encourages white supremacists.
Race 1 has 10 runners all at 9/1.
Race 2 has 2 runners, fav at 1/9, nag at 9/1.
So, one of the 9/1 shots is bound to come in in Race 1. Therefore this will not feel like much of a surprise to an independent dispassionate observer who has no bet on. But if the 9/1 nag beats the 1/9 "racing certainty" in Race 2, that WILL feel like a real shock.
So here, with the US election, it's like Race 2, a binary 2 horse race, and of course ... I'm going to enjoy this pay off sentence ... Trump is the Nag.
In US terms the UK would be a solid blue safe Democratic state in the North East, not a swing state in the MidWest
So binary factor and also favourite vs outsider
Actually that West Ham bet looks alright!
Sounds about right to me.
We'd see American politics then through a domestic prism, not an international one, which would broaden and change our views on both the candidates.
There is a slight movement evident compared to 2016.
Overall US voting has reached 36.5%, and that excludes NY and Hawaii who are not yet reporting.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
Though of course if post Brexit the UK became the 51st US state that would tip Presidential elections to the Democrats anyway, the UK would be the biggest state population wise in the US with even more EC votes than California and that would mean both Gore and Kerry would have won in 2000 and 2004 and Hillary would have won in 2016 and Biden would almost certainly win next month too
None of that is ever going to happen, of course.
https://twitter.com/tramisogyny/status/1319366664496971777?s=20
Of course sport does not start and end on the pitch, training, preparation and tactics are vital, but the game is actually played out, in full, in front of you.