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Working out Covid-19 and the political classes – politicalbetting.com

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  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    Foxy said:

    Ooh, I do hope so, that sounds rather positive about SKS.
    Hang on, I keep being told it's the Conservatives who want to start a culture war?
  • In other fuck business vote Tory news, local town centre bars with no customers at all on a Friday night. "We literally have no chance of single households finishing work at 5pm, getting showered changed and going into town for two hours."

    https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/only-two-customers-bills-pay-19124648
  • Roy_G_Biv said:

    First off, they have to be highly competent to fit the Napoleon role. That ought to narrow it down somewhat.
    Time to put up a market? Next British Emperor instead of next UK PM?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,263

    Hang on, I keep being told it's the Conservatives who want to start a culture war?
    No sign of SKS planning a culture war. Indeed he seems to have shot the Tory fox on that.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180

    The more I read about Biden's policy, the less I like him. Pro-trade union, anti-school choice, let rip on immigration and removing some controls.

    I know what I'd do if I were British. In America, I'd abstain and go 3rd party - I couldn't vote to endorse that.

    There's a lot of questions about Biden but he remains the answer when the alternative is Trump.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    Good header.

    I actually paid a year in advance to King's College gym near my office in January! Doh.

    My local Kiss Gym has been open for a while although I'm not using it now. And my local ABC has only just reopened but now I suppose may close again.

    The only thing I would say is that the process is actually healthy. if this makes gym-bunnies more politically engaged then that's a good thing. That demographic is now realising how this politics game works.
  • Alistair said:

    As I was saying a while ago, it is one of the most left wing platforms American politics has seen for a long while. The idea that Biden has embraced the centre ground to defeat Trump is a fallacy.
    That's the problem when both sides run to extremes it allows the more acceptable extreme to win by default.

    A more moderate Labour Party may have stopped Thatcher in 1984 but thanks to Foot she won a landslide. Same Corbyn facilitated a major victory for Brexiteer Johnson's government.

    Trump is so absolutely catastrophically unacceptable that it's allowing Biden a wide scope to win with.
  • Alistair said:

    Should have waited a week at it will be more like Biden 1.8

    This market is more bonkers than the Obama-Romney free money fest.
    I've started thinking along those lines. The gap between the form and the odds is no so great and persistent it reminds me of some of the great betting mysteries the Site has witnessed - Obama/Romney, as you suggest, and more recently the case of Andrea Leadsome.

    Not sure I can come up with any credible explanation for the puzzle before us now.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    Carnyx said:

    I saw that waxwork at Madame Tussaud's when I was 8. The horror of it ...
    I know, a Frenchman in a bath. It's just unnatural.
  • Alistair said:
    It's about as neutral as that utterly transparent push poll that HYUFD keeps quoting.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    nichomar said:

    I think this is the reason for the growth in cases across Europe as people start to socialize indoors as it gets colder and darker.
    In Spain the second wave was earlier while it was still hot and sunny. I think here it was the big July and August tourist waves with the reunions and clubbing.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    felix said:
    I do hope they get to the root of the matter soon. Someone ouigth to kail for a decent comparative research paper.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    The more I read about Biden's policy, the less I like him. Pro-trade union, anti-school choice, let rip on immigration and removing some controls.

    I know what I'd do if I were British. In America, I'd abstain and go 3rd party - I couldn't vote to endorse that.

    What does "let rip on immigration and removing some controls mean"?

    Of course being pro-immigration hasn't always been particularly controversial in America. Given that it is basically the foundation stone of the country.

    And what's wrong with being "pro-trade union"? There is a perfectly respectable mainstream tradition of trade unionism. You wouldn't say that Germany was a left wing fringe country just because it has strong trade unions. In the UK the perception of the Union movement has become skewed since what happened in the 70s and the nature of most of it's modern day leadership. But there was a time when moderate trade union leaders were the only thing preventing the Labour Party from being completely captured by the lunatic fringes. I don't know what it's like in the US, or how closely the unions are aligned with party politics in the way they are in the UK.


  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309

    Aren't the most liked posts the ones where I get owned

    But, CHB, it's revealing posts like this which prove my point: you shouldn't worry about getting "owned" or not, and likes are the worst thing around for making someone feel shitty about what they have or haven't said.

    You need to draw the strength from within yourself to say what you believe to be true, no matter what anyone else fires at you, and stick to it - no matter how makes likes you get, or how many likes those opposing you get.

    Be convinced only by the quality of the counter-argument.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    TOPPING said:

    Good header.

    I actually paid a year in advance to King's College gym near my office in January! Doh.

    My local Kiss Gym has been open for a while although I'm not using it now. And my local ABC has only just reopened but now I suppose may close again.

    The only thing I would say is that the process is actually healthy. if this makes gym-bunnies more politically engaged then that's a good thing. That demographic is now realising how this politics game works.

    A gym where the main exercise is kissing doesn't sound very socially distant. Interesting though.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    edited October 2020

    Nah, it's because (at the time) Sentamu was seen to be a bit too popular (populist?) and playing to the public gallery, which was resented by others in the Synod.

    The most likely reason he's been deferred in this batch has nothing to do with his race and is because he went quite Remainy in the last couple of years.
    The issue is, though, that that is an own goal by the Tories. If he had been elevated no-one would have noticed or commented. As it is, he is, so far as I am aware, both the first black Archbishop of York (or Canterbury) and the first that has retired from either post for quite some time to be denied a peerage when he left office. Jo Johnson is quite Remainery. While correleation doesn't imply causation a lot of people haven't got that memo and, inevitably, people will tie the two together. Yes, he's remanery, but has constantly spoken up about social issues, and is denied one while self-avowed drug user Ian Botham gets in for being pro-Brexit and winning an Ashes series 40 years ago. It's inexplicable PR. Insane.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,705
    edited October 2020
    DavidL said:

    A gym where the main exercise is kissing doesn't sound very socially distant. Interesting though.
    True but practice makes perfect.
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998

    Time to put up a market? Next British Emperor instead of next UK PM?
    We're nearly a decade from Napoleon coming to power. Right now, he's not even made a name for himself with his audacious Italian campaigns.
    Looking further ahead, looks like we'll be rejoining the EU in April 2040.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Carnyx said:

    I do hope they get to the root of the matter soon. Someone ouigth to kail for a decent comparative research paper.
    All those Swedish Pot [ato] heads sharing spliffs. But lettuce stop the silly word games!
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    isam said:

    Yeah he was too shrewd to be drawn into that trap


    Yep, you'd never catch Keir putting his knee in it...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    DougSeal said:

    The issue is, though, that that is an own goal by the Tories. If he had been elevated no-one would have noticed or commented. As it is, he is, so far as I am aware, both the first black Archbishop of York (or Canterbury) and the first that has retired from either post for quite some time to be denied a peerage when he left office. Jo Johnson is quite Remainery. While correleation doesn't imply causation a lot of people haven't got that memo and, inevitably, people will tie the two together. Yes, he's remanery, but has constantly spoken up about social issues, and is denied one while self-avowed drug user Ian Botham gets in for being pro-Brexit and winning an Ashes series 40 years ago. It's inexplicable PR. Insane.
    I know, Boris rewards his mates/family and those who are loyal to him. I don't think it's any more complicated than that.

    Sentamu is a hugely deserving character for the reasons you mention, in a way that say - Bercow - never will be and precedent be damned.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    isam said:

    Yeah he was too shrewd to be drawn into that trap


    No, when he does, he picks the side that the public approve of -

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/sport/articles-reports/2020/10/16/do-fans-support-premier-league-players-knee-blm
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279
    isam said:

    Yeah he was too shrewd to be drawn into that trap


    That picture is very useful after being on the lash when you are trying to make yourself vomit.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,329
    DougSeal said:

    No, when he does, he picks the side that the public approve of -

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/sport/articles-reports/2020/10/16/do-fans-support-premier-league-players-knee-blm
    Oh sorry, I never knew he was a Premier League Footballer!
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    felix said:

    In Spain the second wave was earlier while it was still hot and sunny. I think here it was the big July and August tourist waves with the reunions and clubbing.
    Yes the next challenge is Nov 1 when they all go to the cemetery with a picnic and mix with relatives and friends not seen for months.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    alex_ said:

    What does "let rip on immigration and removing some controls mean"?

    Of course being pro-immigration hasn't always been particularly controversial in America. Given that it is basically the foundation stone of the country.

    And what's wrong with being "pro-trade union"? There is a perfectly respectable mainstream tradition of trade unionism. You wouldn't say that Germany was a left wing fringe country just because it has strong trade unions. In the UK the perception of the Union movement has become skewed since what happened in the 70s and the nature of most of it's modern day leadership. But there was a time when moderate trade union leaders were the only thing preventing the Labour Party from being completely captured by the lunatic fringes. I don't know what it's like in the US, or how closely the unions are aligned with party politics in the way they are in the UK.


    He will stop building "the wall" and open up immigration visas and loosen restrictions for many more who want admission to the USA.

    There's no need to be an apologist for Biden's policy positions. And I don't think it's profitable for you and I to discuss the merits or dismerits of either - suffice to say, I vehemently disagree - but I know perfectly well how strongly I'd feel about that as a conservative were I living in the USA.
  • That's the problem when both sides run to extremes it allows the more acceptable extreme to win by default.

    A more moderate Labour Party may have stopped Thatcher in 1984 but thanks to Foot she won a landslide. Same Corbyn facilitated a major victory for Brexiteer Johnson's government.

    Trump is so absolutely catastrophically unacceptable that it's allowing Biden a wide scope to win with.
    That's also Starmer's calculation for 2024. Against Johnson, let alone any likely sucessor, Starmer can be both pretty left wing and more centrist than his opponent. That's a pretty sweet position to be in.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    DavidL said:

    There's a lot of questions about Biden but he remains the answer when the alternative is Trump.
    Which is why he still may win handsomely. But, it provides a reason as well if he doesn't and, even if he does, why that halo may not last long.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    Roy_G_Biv said:

    We're nearly a decade from Napoleon coming to power. Right now, he's not even made a name for himself with his audacious Italian campaigns.
    Looking further ahead, looks like we'll be rejoining the EU in April 2040.
    Or conquering it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    Foxy said:

    No sign of SKS planning a culture war. Indeed he seems to have shot the Tory fox on that.
    Have a look again at "cultural revolution" in your post.

    Keeping quiet about it is one thing but, once people cotton onto what's going on, there will be political conflict over it if the flame has been lit.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180

    Which is why he still may win handsomely. But, it provides a reason as well if he doesn't and, even if he does, why that halo may not last long.
    Personally, I think he will be a very poor President but President Harris might be better from 2022 onwards.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    Alistair said:

    As I was saying a while ago, it is one of the most left wing platforms American politics has seen for a long while. The idea that Biden has embraced the centre ground to defeat Trump is a fallacy.
    And there we have it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,101
    Carnyx said:

    It's also difficult to describe Mr Johnson, Mr Sunak and Mr Ross (in the latter's time off from footy) doing anything other than campaigning, certainly in Scotland - and in the former's case in England for much of the time (hard hats, yellow sarks, etc.)
    All those mentioned, the Scottish regional Tories and the Labour party national and regional are campaigning on it on a daily basis, it is incessant. You would think the morons had nothing else to bother them. We even had Starmer say leonard would be FM, that makes Bozo sound intelligent.
  • Roy_G_Biv said:

    We're nearly a decade from Napoleon coming to power. Right now, he's not even made a name for himself with his audacious Italian campaigns.
    Looking further ahead, looks like we'll be rejoining the EU in April 2040.
    So who will be Blighty's Talleyrand at the next Congress of Vienna, kowtowing to the next Metternich? Rory Stewart? Chuka Umunna? Layla Moran?
  • He will stop building "the wall" and open up immigration visas and loosen restrictions for many more who want admission to the USA.

    There's no need to be an apologist for Biden's policy positions. And I don't think it's profitable for you and I to discuss the merits or dismerits of either - suffice to say, I vehemently disagree - but I know perfectly well how strongly I'd feel about that as a conservative were I living in the USA.
    Opening up immigration visas means legal migration. What's wrong with that?

    Presumably high standards will be required for the legal migration it won't be free movement.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    DougSeal said:

    No, when he does, he picks the side that the public approve of -

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/sport/articles-reports/2020/10/16/do-fans-support-premier-league-players-knee-blm
    That shows a very divided public. And it's worth nothing this is one of the top things mentioned (unprompted) as a serious concern about SKS in the red wall seats.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,525
    edited October 2020
    Italy catching the 2nd wave now...and no sign of herd immunity in ground zero.

    Lombardy, which became the global epicentre of the virus back in February, has seen a surge in cases, with more than 2,000 infections a day.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8852331/Italy-close-high-schools-enforce-10pm-curfew-highest-daily-toll-Covid-infections.html
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited October 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    In 2016 the markets gave Trump a lower chance than the 538 model at the off.
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998

    So who will be Blighty's Talleyrand at the next Congress of Vienna, kowtowing to the next Metternich? Rory Stewart? Chuka Umunna? Layla Moran?
    Dominic Grieve
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    DavidL said:

    Personally, I think he will be a very poor President but President Harris might be better from 2022 onwards.
    The thing is, David, is he the sort of leader who can calm down the culture wars and move on from them?

    I think the answer is already very clear: no.

    It may still be he beats Trump handsomely, just because he's so heinous, but that isn't an answer.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,329
    isam said:
    They're not. Strange that they would have the %'s wrong on their own tweet
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,101

    Yes, many jokes are an exception. Usually because they're apolitical and unrelated to a position.

    I'm afraid I have to disagree with you on the quality of the debate. Many of the best posters on here now post far less frequently, including Southam Observer, Charles, Sean Fear, David Herdson, Alastair Meeks, Tissue Price, and others. Others like Richard Nabavi and Jonathan post much less frequently.

    Meanwhile, the trolling is high. I think that's pretty obvious to those with their eyes open.
    Everyone to their own, nobody is forced to post or read, as they say if you don't like the heat of the kitchen get out of it. In my humble opinion you are talking balderdash.
  • Roy_G_Biv said:

    Dominic Grieve
    Sounds plausible.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    ydoethur said:

    Sunil admits to it fairly regularly.
    Sunil's problem was admitting to it repeatedly.

    Once was enough.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,101
    Alistair said:

    Gove used to sound more Scottish.

    That would not take much Alastair
  • That's also Starmer's calculation for 2024. Against Johnson, let alone any likely sucessor, Starmer can be both pretty left wing and more centrist than his opponent. That's a pretty sweet position to be in.
    Except that's the same naive delusion that considered Johnson to be an extremist in 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2019. Johnson isn't a hardcore extremist unless you're a Remain extremist yourself.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    malcolmg said:

    Everyone to their own, nobody is forced to post or read, as they say if you don't like the heat of the kitchen get out of it. In my humble opinion you are talking balderdash.
    Well, a lot of people (posters I really value) have got out of the kitchen.

    Is pb.com more valuable for it?

    Your argument is simply one that excuses a hostile environment.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    nichomar said:

    Yes the next challenge is Nov 1 when they all go to the cemetery with a picnic and mix with relatives and friends not seen for months.
    Our town has announced a 30 minute time on this and capacity limits today!
  • The thing is, David, is he the sort of leader who can calm down the culture wars and move on from them?

    I think the answer is already very clear: no.

    It may still be he beats Trump handsomely, just because he's so heinous, but that isn't an answer.
    Why not? Corbyn was so heinous we voted for Johnson. (Well, not me personally; I took the coward's way out and voted LibDem but you take my point.)
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746
    Alistair said:

    In 2016 the markets gave Trump a lower chance than the 538 model at the off.
    The punters had their fingers burned last time out and are incredibly cautious this time. There's a lot of people like HYUFD out there who see a Trafalgar poll and have their biases confirmed. Whatever the polls say this time people are still scarred by 2016.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,320



    The thing is, David, is he the sort of leader who can calm down the culture wars and move on from them?

    Why would he want to or should he 'calm down' the culture war? We're winning.
  • The thing is, David, is he the sort of leader who can calm down the culture wars and move on from them?

    I think the answer is already very clear: no.

    It may still be he beats Trump handsomely, just because he's so heinous, but that isn't an answer.
    I think he might be because while he is on the left (by USA standards, by UK standards he's not that different to Cameron or Johnson on most issues) he is polite and respectful about it.

    The culture wars have gotten as bad as they have by trying to "own" the other side, he doesn't play into that.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    Scott_xP said:
    He's consistently graceful and reasonable, when she's aggressive, hyper-partisan, rude and desperate to get a political gotcha moment. Even Channel4 would be ashamed of it.

    The Kiwi accents are rather charming though.
  • DougSeal said:

    The punters had their fingers burned last time out and are incredibly cautious this time. There's a lot of people like HYUFD out there who see a Trafalgar poll and have their biases confirmed. Whatever the polls say this time people are still scarred by 2016.
    Yeah, but if Biden wins a landslide (which is not even improbable) they'll get burned again.

    There must be more mug punters out there than I would ever have imgined.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180

    Italy catching the 2nd wave now...and no sign of herd immunity in ground zero.

    Lombardy, which became the global epicentre of the virus back in February, has seen a surge in cases, with more than 2,000 infections a day.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8852331/Italy-close-high-schools-enforce-10pm-curfew-highest-daily-toll-Covid-infections.html

    The 'westminster bubble' manages on the one hand to ignore the R o UK in understanding national politics and the R o Eup in understadning the Covid19. Some achievement.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    malcolmg said:

    Unionist desperation alert, dog food salesmen has surfaced, next we will have Carlotta and Agent Pish deployed
    "First Minister telling lies" is clearly unremarkable.....as ever Malc avoids the substance
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309

    Why not? Corbyn was so heinous we voted for Johnson. (Well, not me personally; I took the coward's way out and voted LibDem but you take my point.)
    And look at how that's turning out barely 11 months later..
  • Italy catching the 2nd wave now...and no sign of herd immunity in ground zero.

    Lombardy, which became the global epicentre of the virus back in February, has seen a surge in cases, with more than 2,000 infections a day.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8852331/Italy-close-high-schools-enforce-10pm-curfew-highest-daily-toll-Covid-infections.html

    This is bad news, I was hoping that the number of deaths they had was an indication that it had already ripped through the population.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309

    I think he might be because while he is on the left (by USA standards, by UK standards he's not that different to Cameron or Johnson on most issues) he is polite and respectful about it.

    The culture wars have gotten as bad as they have by trying to "own" the other side, he doesn't play into that.
    I don't agree Phillip, I think he's with Cameron or Johnson on *economic* issues, but to their Left on socio-cultural ones.

    Even on domestic policy, Cameron would have very different views to Biden, say, on school choice.

    Very different.
  • And look at how that's turning out barely 11 months later..
    Yes the Tories still lead in most polls even after bland, kneeling, abstain from every debate, Captain Hindsight SKS took over. 🤷‍♂️
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309
    Dura_Ace said:

    Why would he want to or should he 'calm down' the culture war? We're winning.
    One of your biggest problems is how you're up for more conflict and fighting.

    You need to seek professional help.
  • And look at how that's turning out barely 11 months later..
    Eh? Covid under control, Brexit going swimmingly, the Economy on fire.....what's not to like?

    Some people.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    Yeah, but if Biden wins a landslide (which is not even improbable) they'll get burned again.

    There must be more mug punters out there than I would ever have imgined.
    Someone posted on here last week, I think, that Betfair were seeing a lot of small punts on Trump, which would suggest the big players are still staying clear of him? That's my suspicion anyway. Like I say, HYUFD sets an incredibly high store by the 2016 Trafalgar polls in Michigan - and he's a political junkie. Whenever something like that comes in, as it did last week, it shifts the needle more than it should.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,101

    Well, a lot of people (posters I really value) have got out of the kitchen.

    Is pb.com more valuable for it?

    Your argument is simply one that excuses a hostile environment.
    I don't see a lot of hostility on here, plenty of snowflakes mind you.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,482

    And look at how that's turning out barely 11 months later..
    Looking like the right decision. Boris isn't doing well, but Corbyn. (We now of course know that basically Corbyn doesn't even believe in Corbyn)

    LibDem though... did they have a leader? One forgets.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,548

    Sunil's problem was admitting to it repeatedly.

    Once was enough.
    The strange thing was he used at as a way of expressing appreciation for various different posts, usually to do with polls but also to do with trains.

    I think I prefer the ‘like’ button.
  • Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998


    One of your biggest problems is how you're up for more conflict and fighting.

    Where would you rank yourself in terms of conflict and fighting, amongst the people who post on here?
    Let's say on a scale of 1-10 where 1 is the least and 10 is the most.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,101

    "First Minister telling lies" is clearly unremarkable.....as ever Malc avoids the substance
    I thought the idiot was talking about campaigning for independence. Plenty of lies from the FM but only against her own side.
    Hague is an absolute plank, a sad loser with nothing positive to say about his own side, gnashing his teeth at the fact that the independence side have a positive attitude and a hope for a better Scotland whilst all he can do is denigrate the country , claim we are too poor and stupid and so only him and his mates down south can show how the country can be run.
    I am too polite to print what I really think of the useless little whining bellend on here.
  • I don't agree Phillip, I think he's with Cameron or Johnson on *economic* issues, but to their Left on socio-cultural ones.

    Even on domestic policy, Cameron would have very different views to Biden, say, on school choice.

    Very different.
    School choice is framed completely differently in the USA with their history of segregation followed by bussing. However our equivalent on school choice would be allowing new Grammar Schools and Cameron ran away from that issue.

    On other socio cultural issues Cameron legalised gay marriage (which Johnson outside of Parliament supported and took part in a Pride march) etc

    On other socio cultural issues like the environment both Cameron and Johnson have made Green issues a priority. From Cameron's huskies to Johnson's wind farms taking the skin off a rice pudding both have embraced environmental issues from a 'vote blue go green' perspective.

    On non European international relations issues like Iran they're quite similar too.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823

    Italy catching the 2nd wave now...and no sign of herd immunity in ground zero.

    Lombardy, which became the global epicentre of the virus back in February, has seen a surge in cases, with more than 2,000 infections a day.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8852331/Italy-close-high-schools-enforce-10pm-curfew-highest-daily-toll-Covid-infections.html

    I think one of the worries in Lombardy is that it got a huge dose of the Asian version of the virus rather than the newer mutated European one which has a couple of tiny differences in mechanism leading to a small but significant chance of reinfection.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    Yes the Tories still lead in most polls even after bland, kneeling, abstain from every debate, Captain Hindsight SKS took over. 🤷‍♂️
    At the time it was widely predicted (at least on here) that it would crash his personal brand. It hasn't harmed it. He's got four years until an election - why risk any political capital whatsoever on fights he can't win?

    The spy legislation is a case in point. Given his history at the Bar, had Labour not abstained but voted against that would have given the Tories massive "Lefty Lawyer tries to Shackle James Bond" type headlines. And for what? The legislation would have passed anyway and allowed Johnson something to attack SKS with that resonates with the public. Better to abstain and pick a better battle that he might win later. He's ahead in most "Best PM" polls and he needs to drag the party up to his level of popularity. Given where they started from under Corbyn that will take a lot of time.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    Yep, you'd never catch Keir putting his knee in it...
    Why is he proposing to me? He's never even met me ...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810
    Sometimes it's good to keep it simple - :smile:

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1317758865543483394
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594

    Yes, many jokes are an exception. Usually because they're apolitical and unrelated to a position.

    I'm afraid I have to disagree with you on the quality of the debate. Many of the best posters on here now post far less frequently, including Southam Observer, Charles, Sean Fear, David Herdson, Alastair Meeks, Tissue Price, and others. Others like Richard Nabavi and Jonathan post much less frequently.

    Meanwhile, the trolling is high. I think that's pretty obvious to those with their eyes open.
    Well thank you for the passive aggressive insult about those presumably with their eyes closed, that will certainly elevate matters.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,219

    This is bad news, I was hoping that the number of deaths they had was an indication that it had already ripped through the population.
    I believe that nowhere on the planet (with the omissible exception of some localities in Brazil) has COVID created herd immunity levels of resistance.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,548
    TimT said:

    Why is he proposing to me? He's never even met me ...
    He’s not proposing, he’s just trying to ring the changes.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180

    Personally, I think he will be a very poor President but President Harris might be better from 2022 onwards.
    The thing is, David, is he the sort of leader who can calm down the culture wars and move on from them?

    I think the answer is already very clear: no.

    It may still be he beats Trump handsomely, just because he's so heinous, but that isn't an answer.

    I think that he might well calm down the culture wars a bit by being a bit of a blancmange who achieves very little. Even that will be an improvement on Trump throwing kerosene on the bbq every day with his twitter account. I think its difficult to overstate how much damage Trump has done to the impression of the US as a serious country.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,263
    Scott_xP said:
    Plural vote is more cautious, and increasingly out of line with the other prediction sites. It is an interesting combination of polling data and media search data. It gives Biden a 72% chance.

    https://twitter.com/plural_vote/status/1317608273785229312?s=09


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,733
    .
    Stocky said:

    Well I admit it.

    The masturbation I mean - not the "likes" thing. I`m not admitting to that.
    I’m just disturbed at the thought of Casino getting sexual gratification that way.

    The “likes” thing, I mean...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,219
    Two big, real issues for Irish unity are

    - higher social security net in the UK
    - abortion.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594

    He's consistently graceful and reasonable, when she's aggressive, hyper-partisan, rude and desperate to get a political gotcha moment. Even Channel4 would be ashamed of it.

    The Kiwi accents are rather charming though.
    I know very little of New Zealand politics, but it was an awfully aggressive stance for a broadcaster, I'd have assumed it was a debate between two political parties. Usually broadcasters qualify the more aggressive stance with caveats like 'Some say that you have X' or the like.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,263

    One of your biggest problems is how you're up for more conflict and fighting.

    You need to seek professional help.
    Of course he loves a scrap. He's a matelot, and one with piratical tendencies...

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,548
    Nigelb said:

    .

    I’m just disturbed at the thought of Casino getting sexual gratification that way.

    The “likes” thing, I mean...
    Well, if there’s no other way it comes in handy.

    See you later.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,733
    kinabalu said:

    Sometimes it's good to keep it simple - :smile:

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1317758865543483394

    That’s just childishly rude.
    Patti put it far better.

    https://twitter.com/garywhiter/status/1313722109475123201
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    edited October 2020
    DavidL said:


    I think that he might well calm down the culture wars a bit by being a bit of a blancmange who achieves very little. Even that will be an improvement on Trump throwing kerosene on the bbq every day with his twitter account. I think its difficult to overstate how much damage Trump has done to the impression of the US as a serious country.

    Agree - there's a lot more to "not Trump" than there was to "not Bush".

    Dull, moderate administrative competence will be a huge upgrade.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    Well it's not as like they will admit to it leading to higher taxation even if it is the case, and pretty sure it was said last time and they still got 45%. Just focus on the positive vision stuff and hope 5% of people feel differently than last time, and it's quite possible, nay probable.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    He will stop building "the wall" and open up immigration visas and loosen restrictions for many more who want admission to the USA.

    There's no need to be an apologist for Biden's policy positions. And I don't think it's profitable for you and I to discuss the merits or dismerits of either - suffice to say, I vehemently disagree - but I know perfectly well how strongly I'd feel about that as a conservative were I living in the USA.
    But these sound like pretty mainstream left win positions. They are hardly extreme left wing positions. Biden is a Democrat. It can hardly be a surprise to discover that he is campaigning on core Democrat principles.

    You sound like you are complaining not that he has an extreme position that you couldn't possibly vote for, but simply that he is not a Republican/Conservative.
  • kinabalu said:

    Sometimes it's good to keep it simple - :smile:

    https://twitter.com/i/status/1317758865543483394

    The kinder and gentler left in action.

    Scumbags.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited October 2020
    DavidL said:

    I think that he might well calm down the culture wars a bit by being a bit of a blancmange who achieves very little. Even that will be an improvement on Trump throwing kerosene on the bbq every day with his twitter account. I think its difficult to overstate how much damage Trump has done to the impression of the US as a serious country.
    The way he is working with McCain's widow and other Republicans with a smile shows he is trying to calm things down at least rather than ramping it up to "own" the other side.

    The culture wars will never entirely end, they are in fact in moderation a very good thing. That's what politics should be doing, debating the big issues. But the toxic own your enemy and lock em up nature of Trump and his followers (and Sanders, BLM extremists etc too) needs to go.

    Biden isn't a centrist but he isn't a toxic own everyone and burn them to the ground extremist.

    Many culture warriors today on all sides act like Conan the Barbarian: The best thing in life is to crush your enemies, to see them driven before you and to hear the lamentations of their women. Biden doesn't play into that.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Anyone know why ScotGov is consistently missing its testing targets? (And no, it's not England "Westminster")

    We are using on average 70-75% of UK Government and 50-55% of NHS capacity on a daily basis.

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/18785241.covid-border-checks-call-new-concerns-raised-scotlands-testing-fails/
This discussion has been closed.