The rumour is that Johnson was quite happy to propose a circuit breaker lockdown two weeks ago, but Sunak vetoed it.
And if that's the case... where does this leave Rishi? Being anti-circuit breaker will do him no harm at all with an important part of the Conservative party, but put him at odds with the general public. A lot of his popularity at the moment is being the nice / generous Tory.
The advanced specimen day data shows a slowdown in the growth rate, if that is the case then we may be having a discussion about whether some of the tier 3 areas can start planning to come out of it a week from now.
The rumour is that Johnson was quite happy to propose a circuit breaker lockdown two weeks ago, but Sunak vetoed it.
And if that's the case... where does this leave Rishi? Being anti-circuit breaker will do him no harm at all with an important part of the Conservative party, but put him at odds with the general public. A lot of his popularity at the moment is being the nice / generous Tory.
The advanced specimen day data shows a slowdown in the growth rate, if that is the case then we may be having a discussion about whether some of the tier 3 areas can start planning to come out of it a week from now.
But surely the issues are:- 1. Any effective circuit breaker will have to last much longer than 2 - 3 weeks; & 2. Will all those businesses closed down during this circuit break be properly compensated for the duration?
Sunak doesn’t want to do the latter & so is vetoing the former.
Starmer wants to do the former. What is Labour’s view on the second? And will they still vote for a circuit breaker if there is no or no adequate compensation for affected businesses and employees?
No. It is conditional on full financial support.
So probably what will happen is that Johnson will "turn the tables" on Starmer by announcing a "circuit breaker" for public health reasons. There won't be full compensation for businesses. And Starmer will abstain on the vote.
At which point he can blame the resulting unemployment / closed businesses on the Tories. The “Same old Tories” slogan writes itself.
The rumour is that Johnson was quite happy to propose a circuit breaker lockdown two weeks ago, but Sunak vetoed it.
And if that's the case... where does this leave Rishi? Being anti-circuit breaker will do him no harm at all with an important part of the Conservative party, but put him at odds with the general public. A lot of his popularity at the moment is being the nice / generous Tory.
The advanced specimen day data shows a slowdown in the growth rate, if that is the case then we may be having a discussion about whether some of the tier 3 areas can start planning to come out of it a week from now.
That would be something we should all be hoping for.
And its worth noting of course that the Tier 3 restrictions are to be reviewed monthly, so if they're to expire after the first month presumably a review does indeed need to begin before very long.
But surely the issues are:- 1. Any effective circuit breaker will have to last much longer than 2 - 3 weeks; & 2. Will all those businesses closed down during this circuit break be properly compensated for the duration?
Sunak doesn’t want to do the latter & so is vetoing the former.
Starmer wants to do the former. What is Labour’s view on the second? And will they still vote for a circuit breaker if there is no or no adequate compensation for affected businesses and employees?
There is a lot of ignorance about business that makes people make suggestions they don't understand the consquences of.
The thing I think many people don't realise is that the cost of shutting down for a fortnight is not simply lost sales for that fortnight etc . . . any pub or restaurant for instance will have to chuck out virtually all its fresh stock. Ale Kegs that had been ordered and paid for would be written offer, any kegs tapped would definitely be wasted, but even untapped ones could be too.
You can close your doors at night and reopen the next day. You can't just shut down for a fortnight and blink as if nothing has happened. The damage would be tremendous.
You also couldn't just reopen on the dot in two weeks time. Or not unless you were sure that it would be allowed. Any pubs decision on reopening would wait for the restrictions to actually be lifted. And then a further 2 weeks minimum to organise the resupply of stock etc
Of course the Govt financial support scheme (whatever it was) would likely only cover the 2 week period.
During the first lockdown businesses adapted, and started pivoting towards offering takeaways and the like. But they could do that in the knowledge that the lockdown was likely to be lengthy. This can't be done for a couple of weeks. Many just won't reopen their doors.
The rumour is that Johnson was quite happy to propose a circuit breaker lockdown two weeks ago, but Sunak vetoed it.
And if that's the case... where does this leave Rishi? Being anti-circuit breaker will do him no harm at all with an important part of the Conservative party, but put him at odds with the general public. A lot of his popularity at the moment is being the nice / generous Tory.
The advanced specimen day data shows a slowdown in the growth rate, if that is the case then we may be having a discussion about whether some of the tier 3 areas can start planning to come out of it a week from now.
What is the direction of travel in Missouri and West Virgina since 2016?
Trump won West Virginia by 42 points and Missouri by 18 points in 2016. The former in terms of that current poll is the real shocker with Trump ahead by 14 points .
Don't forget that WV was the last State in the South to convert from Dem to GOP, and the last Dem Governor of WV is still one of its Senators.
I thought WV broke away from Virginia to fight for the North.
LOLs. It was the GOP that ended slavery, so they broke with VA to become a GOP state. But for a long while after that, it was a solid Dem state.
I was talking about WV being considered a "Southern State".
Still south of the Mason-Dixie.
West Virginia is not so much a Southern state as an Appalachian state, and in fact is the only state that's wholly in the standard definition of "Appalachia". Appalachia is characterized by extreme poverty coupled with a spirit of independence strong even by American standards. The former would make you assume it would go to the Democrats, but it's outweighed by the latter and its concomitant distrust of "Big Government".
I seem to recall a bumper sticker: 'West Virginia - 2 million people, 20 families'.
West Virginia voted Democrat in every presidential election from 1932 until 2000 except the IKE, Nixon and Reagan landslides of 1956, 1972 and 1984 and was one of the most strongly Democratic states in the USA, since 2000 however it has only voted Republican and turned into a safe GOP state
Thanks to TimT & HYUFD for discussing WV based on facts. Rest is pretty funny.
1. WV indeed is bit better for Dems in 2020 than in 2016, but not by enough to write home about OR challenge continued GOP dominance for rest of decade at least.
2. Calling WV a Southern state is a stretch. Historically was considered a Border State, while for most of 20th century was considered a Middle Atlantic state. Note that southern WV is culturally part of Upland South, while northern WV (including two panhandles) is oriented more to Northeast esp PA & MD.
3. Creation of WV during Civil War was indeed engineered by Lincoln and GOP in order to provide a few sure EVs for Honest Abe in 1964 (which it turned out he did NOT need, but you never know!) However, plenty of evidence that majority of West Virginians actually sided with the South, in particular Virginia. So much so that during the war, most of southern WV recorded zero votes in elections; and after the war Republican dominance was based on disenfranchisement of ex-Confederates. As soon as these guys could vote, WV swung into Democratic column and stayed there for a generation until economic changes led to a swing toward the Republicans, which ended abruptly with Great Depression. From then on Democrats dominated Mountain State politics . . . until 2000.
4. In lead up to 2000, Dems had 100% of WV congressional delegation, including Sen. Robert C. Byrd who was true legend in his own time. BUT starting in 2000, the state voted GOP for president (thus winning the White House for W) and today the congressional delegation is all GOP except for Sen. Manchin, who is a special case. So what changed things? For starters, fact that WV did NOT participate in the economic prosperity under Bill Clinton, which was matched by continued decline of organized labor (once big is WV), coal and other rust-belt industries Then impact of (remember Obama?) guns and religion. Specifically, strong support of national (as opposed to local) Democratic party for gun control AND pro-choice. Finally, realization that you did NOT have to vote Democratic just because that was the way granny and the rest of you family had been voting since FDR if not before. (In this context, note that historically, descendants of pro-Unionists tended to vote Republican, esp. in rural areas, while descendants of pro-Confederates tended to vote Democratic; note this was common across Border States and also southern Midwest.
The fact West Virginia has shifted to the Republicans is also a sign of how the GOP a bit like the Tories are increasingly the party of the white working class not the upper middle class as they used to be.
50 years ago wealthy New Hampshire was the classic GOP safe state, now it is white working class West Virginia.
Similarly in the UK 50 years ago wealthy Surrey was the classic safe Tory county, now it is white working class Lincolnshire where the Tories got their highest voteshare last year.
SeaShanty - slight correction about WV. It wasn't created in 1864 to give Abe some extra EV voters, it was because those counties of (then) Virginia sided with the Union against the Confederacy and rebelled. Lincoln then agreed to split WV off.
For starters, WV became a state in 1863 NOT 1864.
As for rest, you are just regurgitating canned historical explanation.
There was a PART of today's West Virginia that was Unionist, and where even before the Civil War there was support for seceding from the Old Dominion.
HOWEVER, most of what ended up in WV was NOT in favor of splitting from Virginia. Look it up.
AND it NOT a case of West Virginia unionists petitioning for a new state. For starters, WV unionists were split on whether to split from VA. Second, national politicos didn't much care what WVians thought as long as Union troops were (mostly) in control of (northern & western) sections of western Virginia. AND there was already a provisional Unionist government of Virginia, which included WV Unionist plus small patches of VA near DC.
The REAL impetus for creation of a brand-new state, by controversial methods at best quasi-constitutional, was ELECTORAL.
But what the heck does your truly know about it? Though one of my (few) claims to fame is that I am a Knight of the Golden Horseshoe.
The rumour is that Johnson was quite happy to propose a circuit breaker lockdown two weeks ago, but Sunak vetoed it.
And if that's the case... where does this leave Rishi? Being anti-circuit breaker will do him no harm at all with an important part of the Conservative party, but put him at odds with the general public. A lot of his popularity at the moment is being the nice / generous Tory.
The advanced specimen day data shows a slowdown in the growth rate, if that is the case then we may be having a discussion about whether some of the tier 3 areas can start planning to come out of it a week from now.
I don't think Johnson does his own analysis on the figures. He's reliant on his experts to distill it for him. As they control the presentation of the data, they will be able to make it show whatever they want to make it show. And i don't think they'll be interested in presenting any suggestion that the growth might be slowing. Not until they've been proved right in their public pronouncements that the latest measures would be insufficient and tougher ones have been introduced.
Really i think the Government advice committees could benefit from independent people who on both sides are given a brief to provide challenge to the official advice, by searching for contrary evidence or anomalies in the data. They could switch roles from hawk to dove periodically to ensure that they don't get too wedded to certain positions.
Lol - talk about a false choice. Allison Pearson is pretty dim, isn't she?
Of course, Sunetra Gupta is not a world authority on the transmission of viruses. She's a mathematical modeller (and not, in my opinion, one of the world's finest of those).
Off topic from Covid but wasn't the deadline for a Brexit agreement supposed to be the day after tomorrow (which is when the European Council meets)? Has there been any news on this and are negotiations currently ongoing?
Lol - talk about a false choice. Allison Pearson is pretty dim, isn't she?
Of course, Sunetra Gupta is not a world authority on the transmission of viruses. She's a mathematical modeller (and not, in my opinion, one of the world's finest of those).
--AS
I do find it wildly entertaining that experts are now in fashion again - but only if they agree with your point of view!
Didn't Pearson tell young people to stop wining and deal with lockdown, she then said we should stop sitting indoors and get out and save Pret and then she said we should stop wining about being outdoors and get back inside again
What is the direction of travel in Missouri and West Virgina since 2016?
Trump won West Virginia by 42 points and Missouri by 18 points in 2016. The former in terms of that current poll is the real shocker with Trump ahead by 14 points .
Don't forget that WV was the last State in the South to convert from Dem to GOP, and the last Dem Governor of WV is still one of its Senators.
What is the direction of travel in Missouri and West Virgina since 2016?
Trump won West Virginia by 42 points and Missouri by 18 points in 2016. The former in terms of that current poll is the real shocker with Trump ahead by 14 points .
Don't forget that WV was the last State in the South to convert from Dem to GOP, and the last Dem Governor of WV is still one of its Senators.
Indeed until 2000 West Virginia was reliably Democrat at Presidential elections - other than in years of Republican landslide such as 1984 and 1972.
The bee here is Jon Snow of Channel 4 News. Who continues to front Channel 4 News from the comfort of his own home. (St David Attenborough would also serve well as the bee for the purposes of this metaphor). The bonnet is my quietude.
Unemployment rates are climbing steeply. Young people are struggling to find jobs. Old and very wealthy established media and other industry individuals are, in my opinion, selfishly bed blocking the route to promotion of their younger counterparts.
Surely these "titans", these "national treasures" should - and could - step aside and be utilised in a voluntary, advisory and unpaid capacity and make way for younger talents?
Interesting idea, with lots to commend it.
BUT as William Gladstone once observed, while expressing his personal support for bringing in new blood, sadly when it comes to incumbents "few die and none resign" or words to that effect.
Of course the GOM was NOT exactly a poster child for early retirement!
The rumour is that Johnson was quite happy to propose a circuit breaker lockdown two weeks ago, but Sunak vetoed it.
And if that's the case... where does this leave Rishi? Being anti-circuit breaker will do him no harm at all with an important part of the Conservative party, but put him at odds with the general public. A lot of his popularity at the moment is being the nice / generous Tory.
The advanced specimen day data shows a slowdown in the growth rate, if that is the case then we may be having a discussion about whether some of the tier 3 areas can start planning to come out of it a week from now.
I don't think Johnson does his own analysis on the figures. He's reliant on his experts to distill it for him. As they control the presentation of the data, they will be able to make it show whatever they want to make it show. And i don't think they'll be interested in presenting any suggestion that the growth might be slowing. Not until they've been proved right in their public pronouncements that the latest measures would be insufficient and tougher ones have been introduced.
Really i think the Government advice committees could benefit from independent people who on both sides are given a brief to provide challenge to the official advice, by searching for contrary evidence or anomalies in the data. They could switch roles from hawk to dove periodically to ensure that they don't get too wedded to certain positions.
The main problem is that the government doesn't seem to want views that go against whatever the current consensus is, not the scientists or the politicians.
Tomorrow's data is going to show whether we're still at between 9 and 10 days on case growth or if it's begun slowing down to around 11/12 days.
Lol - talk about a false choice. Allison Pearson is pretty dim, isn't she?
Of course, Sunetra Gupta is not a world authority on the transmission of viruses. She's a mathematical modeller (and not, in my opinion, one of the world's finest of those).
--AS
I do find it wildly entertaining that experts are now in fashion again - but only if they agree with your point of view!
In all seriousness, it's one reason why experts need to be very careful about their public statements. I'm very disappointed in some of my colleagues for what one might call "loose talk" on the record.
Lol - talk about a false choice. Allison Pearson is pretty dim, isn't she?
Of course, Sunetra Gupta is not a world authority on the transmission of viruses. She's a mathematical modeller (and not, in my opinion, one of the world's finest of those).
--AS
I do find it wildly entertaining that experts are now in fashion again - but only if they agree with your point of view!
In all seriousness, it's one reason why experts need to be very careful about their public statements. I'm very disappointed in some of my colleagues for what one might call "loose talk" on the record.
--AS
61 posts and already more interesting than some of the regulars.
The rumour is that Johnson was quite happy to propose a circuit breaker lockdown two weeks ago, but Sunak vetoed it.
And if that's the case... where does this leave Rishi? Being anti-circuit breaker will do him no harm at all with an important part of the Conservative party, but put him at odds with the general public. A lot of his popularity at the moment is being the nice / generous Tory.
The advanced specimen day data shows a slowdown in the growth rate, if that is the case then we may be having a discussion about whether some of the tier 3 areas can start planning to come out of it a week from now.
I'm certainly not going to trust someone who said we had all caught it and reached herd immunity in the spring, and who has now been proved comprehensively wrong.
I'm certainly not going to trust someone who said we had all caught it and reached herd immunity in the spring, and who has now been proved comprehensively wrong.
And who, having been proved wrong, simply searched for other arguments to arrive at the same conclusion.
But surely the issues are:- 1. Any effective circuit breaker will have to last much longer than 2 - 3 weeks; & 2. Will all those businesses closed down during this circuit break be properly compensated for the duration?
Sunak doesn’t want to do the latter & so is vetoing the former.
Starmer wants to do the former. What is Labour’s view on the second? And will they still vote for a circuit breaker if there is no or no adequate compensation for affected businesses and employees?
There is a lot of ignorance about business that makes people make suggestions they don't understand the consquences of.
The thing I think many people don't realise is that the cost of shutting down for a fortnight is not simply lost sales for that fortnight etc . . . any pub or restaurant for instance will have to chuck out virtually all its fresh stock. Ale Kegs that had been ordered and paid for would be written offer, any kegs tapped would definitely be wasted, but even untapped ones could be too.
You can close your doors at night and reopen the next day. You can't just shut down for a fortnight and blink as if nothing has happened. The damage would be tremendous.
You also couldn't just reopen on the dot in two weeks time. Or not unless you were sure that it would be allowed. Any pubs decision on reopening would wait for the restrictions to actually be lifted. And then a further 2 weeks minimum to organise the resupply of stock etc
Of course the Govt financial support scheme (whatever it was) would likely only cover the 2 week period.
During the first lockdown businesses adapted, and started pivoting towards offering takeaways and the like. But they could do that in the knowledge that the lockdown was likely to be lengthy. This can't be done for a couple of weeks. Many just won't reopen their doors.
There was a time when one could be assured that the Conservative Party, at least, understood the value of certainty and a stable business environment for those who traded in it. But we know that's not true any more - hence Brexit. Or perhaps not necessarily Brexit per se, but the way the departure has been handled, with barely a second thought given to the impossibility of planning for an exit from the transition period in 3 months without a clue about the trading environment into which we will be entering.
And so the response to the pandemic. It is reasonable to make allowances (especially back in March) that the speed of what was happening threw thoughts of stability and certainty out of the window. But once we started to reopen, every decision should have had in mind the thought that it needed to be made whilst giving businesses as much as possible the certainty to plan, and where necessary invest in their businesses. Many spent thousands ensuring they met Govt requirements to make their premises "Covid safe", only to find the Govt changed repeatedly what it meant to be Covid safe, and then decided that it wasn't safe at all in any circumstance. And now we have farcical situations of Govt bringing in new regulations with 28 day review periods, whilst simultaneously briefing that they may ditch them next week! Impossible.
This is in part why i don't understand really the argument about "Sweden didn't lockdown, but it's economy suffered the same". Yes this may be true. But at least they provided a stable environment for businesses to take their own decisions on how to respond to the significant down turn in trade. Knowing that things would be tough, but that if they could adjust their business model successfully they wouldn't be undermined by a Government u-turning on what they could do every 10 minutes.
The bee here is Jon Snow of Channel 4 News. Who continues to front Channel 4 News from the comfort of his own home. (St David Attenborough would also serve well as the bee for the purposes of this metaphor). The bonnet is my quietude.
Unemployment rates are climbing steeply. Young people are struggling to find jobs. Old and very wealthy established media and other industry individuals are, in my opinion, selfishly bed blocking the route to promotion of their younger counterparts.
Surely these "titans", these "national treasures" should - and could - step aside and be utilised in a voluntary, advisory and unpaid capacity and make way for younger talents?
The bee here is Jon Snow of Channel 4 News. Who continues to front Channel 4 News from the comfort of his own home. (St David Attenborough would also serve well as the bee for the purposes of this metaphor). The bonnet is my quietude.
Unemployment rates are climbing steeply. Young people are struggling to find jobs. Old and very wealthy established media and other industry individuals are, in my opinion, selfishly bed blocking the route to promotion of their younger counterparts.
Surely these "titans", these "national treasures" should - and could - step aside and be utilised in a voluntary, advisory and unpaid capacity and make way for younger talents?
That's nowt. Andrew Neil (71) is starting his own TV channel. Biden, Trump, Pelosi. Corbyn. Boomers just won't cede power in general.
People say no-one ever changes their mind on PB, but I have on taxes. I think the top 20% wealthiest people should be taxed more, and also mega-corporations like Amazon, Apple and Starbucks ought to pay more tax. That wasn't my position 2 or 3 years ago. At that time I thought taxes should be as low as possible for everyone.
The bee here is Jon Snow of Channel 4 News. Who continues to front Channel 4 News from the comfort of his own home. (St David Attenborough would also serve well as the bee for the purposes of this metaphor). The bonnet is my quietude.
Unemployment rates are climbing steeply. Young people are struggling to find jobs. Old and very wealthy established media and other industry individuals are, in my opinion, selfishly bed blocking the route to promotion of their younger counterparts.
Surely these "titans", these "national treasures" should - and could - step aside and be utilised in a voluntary, advisory and unpaid capacity and make way for younger talents?
Interesting idea, with lots to commend it.
BUT as William Gladstone once observed, while expressing his personal support for bringing in new blood, sadly when it comes to incumbents "few die and none resign" or words to that effect.
Of course the GOM was NOT exactly a poster child for early retirement!
Yes. And also the GOM was, MOG. "Murderer of Gordon". We have our own MOG(G) now. Sadly.
The bee here is Jon Snow of Channel 4 News. Who continues to front Channel 4 News from the comfort of his own home. (St David Attenborough would also serve well as the bee for the purposes of this metaphor). The bonnet is my quietude.
Unemployment rates are climbing steeply. Young people are struggling to find jobs. Old and very wealthy established media and other industry individuals are, in my opinion, selfishly bed blocking the route to promotion of their younger counterparts.
Surely these "titans", these "national treasures" should - and could - step aside and be utilised in a voluntary, advisory and unpaid capacity and make way for younger talents?
The bee here is Jon Snow of Channel 4 News. Who continues to front Channel 4 News from the comfort of his own home. (St David Attenborough would also serve well as the bee for the purposes of this metaphor). The bonnet is my quietude.
Unemployment rates are climbing steeply. Young people are struggling to find jobs. Old and very wealthy established media and other industry individuals are, in my opinion, selfishly bed blocking the route to promotion of their younger counterparts.
Surely these "titans", these "national treasures" should - and could - step aside and be utilised in a voluntary, advisory and unpaid capacity and make way for younger talents?
That's nowt. Andrew Neil (71) is starting his own TV channel. Biden, Trump, Pelosi. Corbyn. Boomers just won't cede power in general.
I'm certainly not going to trust someone who said we had all caught it and reached herd immunity in the spring, and who has now been proved comprehensively wrong.
Her full title is, of course, Professor of Theoretical Epidemiology, which is wonderfully apt given her track record.
People say no-one ever changes their mind on PB, but I have on taxes. I think the top 20% wealthiest people should be taxed more, and also mega-corporations like Amazon, Apple and Starbucks ought to pay more tax. That wasn't my position 2 or 3 years ago. At that time I thought taxes should be as low as possible for everyone.
Hold on, I'm called out at least three times a day for changing my mind
The bee here is Jon Snow of Channel 4 News. Who continues to front Channel 4 News from the comfort of his own home. (St David Attenborough would also serve well as the bee for the purposes of this metaphor). The bonnet is my quietude.
Unemployment rates are climbing steeply. Young people are struggling to find jobs. Old and very wealthy established media and other industry individuals are, in my opinion, selfishly bed blocking the route to promotion of their younger counterparts.
Surely these "titans", these "national treasures" should - and could - step aside and be utilised in a voluntary, advisory and unpaid capacity and make way for younger talents?
The bee here is Jon Snow of Channel 4 News. Who continues to front Channel 4 News from the comfort of his own home. (St David Attenborough would also serve well as the bee for the purposes of this metaphor). The bonnet is my quietude.
Unemployment rates are climbing steeply. Young people are struggling to find jobs. Old and very wealthy established media and other industry individuals are, in my opinion, selfishly bed blocking the route to promotion of their younger counterparts.
Surely these "titans", these "national treasures" should - and could - step aside and be utilised in a voluntary, advisory and unpaid capacity and make way for younger talents?
That's nowt. Andrew Neil (71) is starting his own TV channel. Biden, Trump, Pelosi. Corbyn. Boomers just won't cede power in general.
Yes. They should all jog on.
Maybe a gentle saunter on might be more appropriate. But yes.
What is the direction of travel in Missouri and West Virgina since 2016?
Trump won West Virginia by 42 points and Missouri by 18 points in 2016. The former in terms of that current poll is the real shocker with Trump ahead by 14 points .
Don't forget that WV was the last State in the South to convert from Dem to GOP, and the last Dem Governor of WV is still one of its Senators.
What is the direction of travel in Missouri and West Virgina since 2016?
Trump won West Virginia by 42 points and Missouri by 18 points in 2016. The former in terms of that current poll is the real shocker with Trump ahead by 14 points .
Don't forget that WV was the last State in the South to convert from Dem to GOP, and the last Dem Governor of WV is still one of its Senators.
Indeed until 2000 West Virginia was reliably Democrat at Presidential elections - other than in years of Republican landslide such as 1984 and 1972.
In 2000 on eve of EDay, Governor of WV was Republican Cecil Underwood (who holds "distinction" of being both the state's youngest AND oldest governor, but NOT during same term) but that year he lost bid for re-election to Democrat Bob Wise. But both US Senators (Robert Byrd & Jay Rockefeller) were Democrats, as were three US House members. In addition, Dems had super-majorities in WV state Senate (29 D, 5 R) and House of Delegates (75 D, 25 R).
In 2010 before EDay, Governor was Democrat Joe Manchin, Byrd & Rockefeller were still US Senators, and one of three US Reps was a Republican (Shelly Moore Capito); state Senate (28 D, 6R) and state House of Delegates (71 D, 29 R)
In 2020 before EDay (but after Trumpsky's 2016 victory, Governor is Republican Jim Justice, two US Senators are Democrat Manchin and Republican Moore-Capito, and all three US Reps are GOP; state Senate (R 20, D 14) and state House of Delegates (R 57, D 41, Ind 1 who was elected as a Republican, Vacant 1 seat that had been held by GOP).
“ Trump throws superspreader parties at the WH . Republicans hug each other without consequences . How many of you have been unable to hug your grandkids “.
This sort of message is why Biden is doing much better with seniors in many of the swing states . In polling he scores very well when voters are asked to rate him on compassion and empathy, and cares about people .
The comparisons with 2016 seem to miss a big difference. Clinton and Trump were both polling poorly in terms of favourability. Trump won inspite of that because some voters could justify his vote in both are awful.
Biden might not be an exciting candidate , gaffe prone and a bit doddery at times but he’s not polarizing and is much more liked than Clinton .
I'm certainly not going to trust someone who said we had all caught it and reached herd immunity in the spring, and who has now been proved comprehensively wrong.
Her full title is, of course, Professor of Theoretical Epidemiology, which is wonderfully apt given her track record.
Theoretical Epidemiology Wars
There is a lot of history here. Sunetra Gupta and Neil Ferguson/Roy Anderson fell out rather spectacularly.
I could probably put up with any type of lockdown except a return to the 23 hour a day lock-up at home. Funny how I can't even remember now how long that was imposed for in March/April/May.
They like to go to Democratic strongholds (i.e. cities) and drive around in a show of force / convoy of vehicles / etc.
Left wing protests don't head to small Republican towns for a show of force...
Robert, has this been traditional pre-Trump for GOP rallies? I'm thinking of the Countryside rally in London as the only example here I can think of. Or in the past have rallies normally been done more closer to home for those in them?
Incidentally I agree with Edmund. Stuff like this sure seems to be encouraging GOTV for the Democrats. From the early voting figures it seems any claims of an 'enthusiasm gap' working against the Democrats are without foundation.
So my Grand Theory of 2020 is all the unusual stuff the GOP are doing that looks dumb like effectively telling their people not to vote by post in the middle of a pandemic and riling up their opponents on purpose is in fact dumb. I don't think all the turnout-related stupidity will be fully captured by the polls, especially if the virus is raging on election day.
“ Trump throws superspreader parties at the WH . Republicans hug each other without consequences . How many of you have been unable to hug your grandkids “.
That doesn’t make any sense. The criticism of Cummings came because it happened when people were doing as the government asked.
I thought the criticism of the Trump Administration was that they hadn’t imposed restrictions on people.
“ Trump throws superspreader parties at the WH . Republicans hug each other without consequences . How many of you have been unable to hug your grandkids “.
That doesn’t make any sense. The criticism of Cummings came because it happened when people were doing as the government asked.
I thought the criticism of the Trump Administration was that they hadn’t imposed restrictions on people.
People - esp vulnerable groups such as seniors, diabetics, etc - have been imposing restrictions on themselves, or their families OR caregivers OR housing managers (big deal with FL elders) have been doing it for them.
So Biden's statement makes a LOT of sense - and highlights the cavalier, criminal, moronic incompetence of Trumpsky and his Republican Party.
“ Trump throws superspreader parties at the WH . Republicans hug each other without consequences . How many of you have been unable to hug your grandkids “.
That doesn’t make any sense. The criticism of Cummings came because it happened when people were doing as the government asked.
I thought the criticism of the Trump Administration was that they hadn’t imposed restrictions on people.
People - esp vulnerable groups such as seniors, diabetics, etc - have been imposing restrictions on themselves, or their families OR caregivers OR housing managers (big deal with FL elders) have been doing it for them.
So Biden's statement makes a LOT of sense - and highlights the cavalier, criminal, moronic incompetence of Trumpsky and his Republican Party.
It implies that people wouldn’t have to make sacrifices if the White House was behaving differently; which is obviously nonsense.
None of this matters, of course, but the pandemic will still be around when Biden takes over, so I’m intrigued to see how he plans to deliver for these people.
I could probably put up with any type of lockdown except a return to the 23 hour a day lock-up at home. Funny how I can't even remember now how long that was imposed for in March/April/May.
If you were in England it wasn't imposed at all. Exercise of whatever length and shopping were fine throughout.
Comments
And its worth noting of course that the Tier 3 restrictions are to be reviewed monthly, so if they're to expire after the first month presumably a review does indeed need to begin before very long.
As for rest, you are just regurgitating canned historical explanation.
There was a PART of today's West Virginia that was Unionist, and where even before the Civil War there was support for seceding from the Old Dominion.
HOWEVER, most of what ended up in WV was NOT in favor of splitting from Virginia. Look it up.
AND it NOT a case of West Virginia unionists petitioning for a new state. For starters, WV unionists were split on whether to split from VA. Second, national politicos didn't much care what WVians thought as long as Union troops were (mostly) in control of (northern & western) sections of western Virginia. AND there was already a provisional Unionist government of Virginia, which included WV Unionist plus small patches of VA near DC.
The REAL impetus for creation of a brand-new state, by controversial methods at best quasi-constitutional, was ELECTORAL.
But what the heck does your truly know about it? Though one of my (few) claims to fame is that I am a Knight of the Golden Horseshoe.
Really i think the Government advice committees could benefit from independent people who on both sides are given a brief to provide challenge to the official advice, by searching for contrary evidence or anomalies in the data. They could switch roles from hawk to dove periodically to ensure that they don't get too wedded to certain positions.
Of course, Sunetra Gupta is not a world authority on the transmission of viruses. She's a mathematical modeller (and not, in my opinion, one of the world's finest of those).
--AS
Tier 4 tomorrow
BUT as William Gladstone once observed, while expressing his personal support for bringing in new blood, sadly when it comes to incumbents "few die and none resign" or words to that effect.
Of course the GOM was NOT exactly a poster child for early retirement!
Tomorrow's data is going to show whether we're still at between 9 and 10 days on case growth or if it's begun slowing down to around 11/12 days.
--AS
I of course include myself.
Amusingly Dem returned ballots ahead of GOP in Nevada even though nothing has gone out to Clark (Vegas) or Washoe (Reno) yet
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316147736962572288?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316150532151664641?s=20
And so the response to the pandemic. It is reasonable to make allowances (especially back in March) that the speed of what was happening threw thoughts of stability and certainty out of the window. But once we started to reopen, every decision should have had in mind the thought that it needed to be made whilst giving businesses as much as possible the certainty to plan, and where necessary invest in their businesses. Many spent thousands ensuring they met Govt requirements to make their premises "Covid safe", only to find the Govt changed repeatedly what it meant to be Covid safe, and then decided that it wasn't safe at all in any circumstance. And now we have farcical situations of Govt bringing in new regulations with 28 day review periods, whilst simultaneously briefing that they may ditch them next week! Impossible.
This is in part why i don't understand really the argument about "Sweden didn't lockdown, but it's economy suffered the same". Yes this may be true. But at least they provided a stable environment for businesses to take their own decisions on how to respond to the significant down turn in trade. Knowing that things would be tough, but that if they could adjust their business model successfully they wouldn't be undermined by a Government u-turning on what they could do every 10 minutes.
Biden, Trump, Pelosi. Corbyn.
Boomers just won't cede power in general.
They should show Contagion
In 2010 before EDay, Governor was Democrat Joe Manchin, Byrd & Rockefeller were still US Senators, and one of three US Reps was a Republican (Shelly Moore Capito); state Senate (28 D, 6R) and state House of Delegates (71 D, 29 R)
In 2020 before EDay (but after Trumpsky's 2016 victory, Governor is Republican Jim Justice, two US Senators are Democrat Manchin and Republican Moore-Capito, and all three US Reps are GOP; state Senate (R 20, D 14) and state House of Delegates (R 57, D 41, Ind 1 who was elected as a Republican, Vacant 1 seat that had been held by GOP).
https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1316149484636827649
https://twitter.com/DRMovieNews1/status/1316101049464369162?s=20
I notice f##k all social distancing among those trying to get a video on their cellphones.
“ Trump throws superspreader parties at the WH . Republicans hug each other without consequences . How many of you have been unable to hug your grandkids “.
This sort of message is why Biden is doing much better with seniors in many of the swing states . In polling he scores very well when voters are asked to rate him on compassion and empathy, and cares about people .
The comparisons with 2016 seem to miss a big difference. Clinton and Trump were both polling poorly in terms of favourability. Trump won inspite of that because some voters could justify his vote in both are awful.
Biden might not be an exciting candidate , gaffe prone and a bit doddery at times but he’s not polarizing and is much more liked than Clinton .
NC (Survey USA - grade A per 538): Biden +5 (Trump won by 3.7)
NH (University of NH - grade B-): Biden +12 (Clinton won by 0.4)
There is a lot of history here. Sunetra Gupta and Neil Ferguson/Roy Anderson fell out rather spectacularly.
https://www.nature.com/articles/35016213
This uproar caused the migration of the then Oxford group to Imperial.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=blSAMf0ySys
They like to go to Democratic strongholds (i.e. cities) and drive around in a show of force / convoy of vehicles / etc.
Left wing protests don't head to small Republican towns for a show of force...
Incidentally I agree with Edmund. Stuff like this sure seems to be encouraging GOTV for the Democrats. From the early voting figures it seems any claims of an 'enthusiasm gap' working against the Democrats are without foundation.
Doesn't that cover approx 50% of all PBers?
I thought the criticism of the Trump Administration was that they hadn’t imposed restrictions on people.
So Biden's statement makes a LOT of sense - and highlights the cavalier, criminal, moronic incompetence of Trumpsky and his Republican Party.
On the other hand, a house-broke president who can be counted upon NOT to wipe his ass on the tablecloth - THAT's a good thing!
None of this matters, of course, but the pandemic will still be around when Biden takes over, so I’m intrigued to see how he plans to deliver for these people.
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1316183611809300480?s=21
But it’s amusing that the GOP with 30+% of the vote are described as “largely marginalised”
Hancock is taking advice not putting his own expertise in the subject against this professor