While I agree with a lot of what Max says, the idea of ankle bracelets to trace those who need to isolate would go down abour as well as South Korean spy app for track and trace.
It would be all good until they actually said they would do it and then the outcry would be deafening.
It's two weeks and £1400 to do it and I'd use wrist bracelets rather than the ankle ones which are obviously associated to convicts.
Also, it's the option for people who refuse two weeks in a hotel with three free meals a day and £1000.
I don't think it's unreasonable.
I don't either...but look at the screaming over does ordering a pasty equal a meal.
The media would go mental and find edge cases that they would mean it is inhuman. Just see the idea of not mixing households gets streams of people presented by the media where they have 3 different family groups, one kid recovering from cancer and another is autistic, yadda yadda yadda.
Fuck the noise and the headlines. Why have a majority of 80 if you can't do unpopular stuff.
There is something in this, for better and worse. They should not be so terrified of a poor headline all the time. This is probably their only chance in a generation to do some very necessary things (and some very unnecessary things, but that's politics for you), and I bet they run scared from controversy every chance they can. I look forward to when the planning changes are watered down for a start.
The thing is whatever your view on the Govt's current policy (until next Monday) to declare (as Starmer did) that the current approach "isn't working" when the latest measures haven't even come into force yet is disingenuous in the extreme. He also pins a large amount of the blame on the failure of Test and trace, but frankly if he sees that as the key problem then a 2-3 week lockdown is a laughable policy response. If the problem is test and trace, and it is fundamental to tackling the virus that it is fixed, then 2-3 weeks will do nothing. If he truly believes it then he should be calling for a reinstatement of the lockdown from March. The only reason he's proposed it is because it is something that SAGE apparently advised (4 weeks ago when the national situation was very different to how it is now) and the govt rejected.
That was about a specificities trial of saliva tests.
What is interesting in that story is the lack of why.
Apparently they had some problems finding volunteers.. undefined....
Apparently "its part in Operation Moonshot had been paused due to a lack of clarity over the accuracy of the saliva testing system." - according to a politician who'd been told by council officials.
I smell systemic resistance - maybe even herd immunity. From things they don't like... but why?
I actually did a saliva test today at Southampton University, just spat in a pot, I had the result 8 hours later. They are doing it for all staff and contractors working at the UNI on a weekly basis.
These tests work. They are fairly accurate as well, I believe. The reason I suspect systemic resistance is that every time the government has spoken about mass testing - increasing PCR to 1 million per day for example, people from NHS/associated organisations pop up to say that this is a bad idea/wrong/screening is bad/ etc etc
Yes, I suspect this too. The Not Invented Here syndrome seems to be untreatable in organizations like the NHS and PHE. I wish more Universities had the resources to just do the research themselves, but the costs of medical research are such that they pretty much have to be externally funded.
Boris's comments about maybe never a vaccine sounds like him misquoting one of the scientists. Whitty and Vallance have always been careful not to stress how difficult vaccine research is, particularly early in the pandemic, and I think that negativity has sunk in. The consensus view of immunologists seems to be that this particular virus is very amenable to vaccines, and that at least one of the technologies currently under trial will work to a clinically significant degree. (I imagine we will get more effective vaccines in future years.)
From the numbers it seems that the Pfizer vaccine, not the Oxford one, has the best chance of an early readout -- partly because they got on with the dosing rather more promptly, partly because of where they are testing, partly because they define cases a little more generously, and partly because they set rather aggressive interim case numbers. I have always thought, since June or July, that October evidence would be the most optimistic possible, with November or December more plausible, and early next year if we are unlucky. We will get there.
--AS
Pfizer's BNT162b2 is also massively easier to manufacture than pretty much any of the alternatives, so if the numbers look even halfway good it may be the only option on the table for hungry governments.
US 2020 GENERAL ELECTION - ELECTION DAY SCHEDULE (as per wiki; all time Eastern Standard Time) cannot vouch for accuracy, but looks ok
November 3: Election Day 12:00 a.m. to 12:30 a.m: New Hampshire midnight voting
6:00 p.m EST: Polls close in Eastern Time Zone sections of Indiana and Kentucky (most of these states)
7:00 p.m EST: Polls close in: Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia, Vermont and part of New Hampshire Eastern Time Zone sections of Florida Central Time Zone sections of Indiana and Kentucky
7:30 p.m EST: Polls close in North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia
8:00 p.m EST: Polls close in: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee and District of Columbia rest of New Hampshire Selected areas of North Dakota Eastern Time Zone sections of Michigan (most of state) Central Time Zone sections of Florida Central Time Zone sections of Kansas, South Dakota and Texas (most of these states)
8:30 p.m EST: Polls close in Arkansas
9:00 p.m EST: Polls close in: Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Wisconsin and Wyoming Remaining areas of North Dakota Central Time Zone sections of Michigan Mountain Time Zone sections of Kansas, South Dakota and Texas
10:00 p.m EST: Polls close in: Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah Mountain Time Zone sections of Idaho and Oregon
11:00 p.m: Polls close in: California, Hawaii and Washington Pacific Time Zone sections of Idaho and Oregon
NOTE as per long-standing agreement, this is earliest that the media will declare presidential race
November 4: 12:00 a.m EST: Polls close in Alaska Time Zone sections of Alaska (most of state)
1:00 a.m: Polls close Hawaii–Aleutian Zone sections of Alaska
The thing is whatever your view on the Govt's current policy (until next Monday) to declare (as Starmer did) that the current approach "isn't working" when the latest measures haven't even come into force yet is disingenuous in the extreme. He also pins a large amount of the blame on the failure of Test and trace, but frankly if he sees that as the key problem then a 2-3 week lockdown is a laughable policy response. If the problem is test and trace, and it is fundamental to tackling the virus that it is fixed, then 2-3 weeks will do nothing. If he truly believes it then he should be calling for a reinstatement of the lockdown from March. The only reason he's proposed it is because it is something that SAGE apparently advised (4 weeks ago when the national situation was very different to how it is now) and the govt rejected.
Yeah, I thought that part was a bit much. He said the current restrictions, not yet entered into force, hadn't worked. Well, duh.
The government has made its decision on the new tier system. Now, it should hold its nerve and see if the new restrictions work over a period of time, and not change course quickly unless there is a very sharp deterioration in case numbers. It should not be bounced by the media and Starmer into a hitherto untried experiment with a circuit breaker, particularly an experiment with no stated goals (other than reduce virus cases) and no exit strategy.
If the government thinks it's doing the right thing it should stick with it, just like the Irish government is.
While I agree with a lot of what Max says, the idea of ankle bracelets to trace those who need to isolate would go down abour as well as South Korean spy app for track and trace.
It would be all good until they actually said they would do it and then the outcry would be deafening.
It's two weeks and £1400 to do it and I'd use wrist bracelets rather than the ankle ones which are obviously associated to convicts.
Also, it's the option for people who refuse two weeks in a hotel with three free meals a day and £1000.
I don't think it's unreasonable.
I don't either...but look at the screaming over does ordering a pasty equal a meal.
The media would go mental and find edge cases that they would mean it is inhuman. Just see the idea of not mixing households gets streams of people presented by the media where they have 3 different family groups, one kid recovering from cancer and another is autistic, yadda yadda yadda.
Fuck the noise and the headlines. Why have a majority of 80 if you can't do unpopular stuff.
There is something in this, for better and worse. They should not be so terrified of a poor headline all the time. This is probably their only chance in a generation to do some very necessary things (and some very unnecessary things, but that's politics for you), and I bet they run scared from controversy every chance they can. I look forward to when the planning changes are watered down for a start.
I am very much of this opinion. For all the talk of bold policies, leveling up, etc and a big majority, so fae the evidence is the government is very quick to fold when the bad headlines are incoming, unless it is holding on to staff tainted by scandal.
Which is the wrong way round. You chuck the dodgy ones out ASAP and stick to policies that you believe are right regardless of the noise.
While I agree with a lot of what Max says, the idea of ankle bracelets to trace those who need to isolate would go down abour as well as South Korean spy app for track and trace.
It would be all good until they actually said they would do it and then the outcry would be deafening.
It's two weeks and £1400 to do it and I'd use wrist bracelets rather than the ankle ones which are obviously associated to convicts.
Also, it's the option for people who refuse two weeks in a hotel with three free meals a day and £1000.
I don't think it's unreasonable.
I don't either...but look at the screaming over does ordering a pasty equal a meal.
The media would go mental and find edge cases that they would mean it is inhuman. Just see the idea of not mixing households gets streams of people presented by the media where they have 3 different family groups, one kid recovering from cancer and another is autistic, yadda yadda yadda.
Fuck the noise and the headlines. Why have a majority of 80 if you can't do unpopular stuff. I also think it would be a very popular policy as after a few weeks the R would drop to basically zero and coupled with 5 day hotel quarantine and testing on arrival you could basically lift indoor social distancing restrictions and allow people to just get on with life. Then have a China style response to local outbreaks of basically knocking on doors and testing everyone in a local area at once and isolating them in hotels and so on.
Plus the fact there are a large number of folk who will have never experienced such luxury in their lives. Nor 3 cooked meals a day. Without work. And a huge pay rise to boot.
If we're going full China, why not just lock EVERYONE up? Why only those who have triggered a requirement to quarantine?
While I agree with a lot of what Max says, the idea of ankle bracelets to trace those who need to isolate would go down abour as well as South Korean spy app for track and trace.
It would be all good until they actually said they would do it and then the outcry would be deafening.
It's two weeks and £1400 to do it and I'd use wrist bracelets rather than the ankle ones which are obviously associated to convicts.
Also, it's the option for people who refuse two weeks in a hotel with three free meals a day and £1000.
I don't think it's unreasonable.
I don't either...but look at the screaming over does ordering a pasty equal a meal.
The media would go mental and find edge cases that they would mean it is inhuman. Just see the idea of not mixing households gets streams of people presented by the media where they have 3 different family groups, one kid recovering from cancer and another is autistic, yadda yadda yadda.
Fuck the noise and the headlines. Why have a majority of 80 if you can't do unpopular stuff. I also think it would be a very popular policy as after a few weeks the R would drop to basically zero and coupled with 5 day hotel quarantine and testing on arrival you could basically lift indoor social distancing restrictions and allow people to just get on with life. Then have a China style response to local outbreaks of basically knocking on doors and testing everyone in a local area at once and isolating them in hotels and so on.
It won't drop to zero. Around half (Scotland) and one third (England) of actual cases are estimated* to be picked up by testing and then contact tracing only finds an proportion of actual close contacts. It is important tool in the box, which isn't currently working as well as it could, but there needs to be other interventions as well.
* Probably a guestimate. It doesn't necessarily mean Scotland is picking up a bigger proportion of cases with testing.
It actually does, in countries which use it the absolute infection rate is basically zero. What it does is it catches symptomatic people who are more likely to highly infectious and reduces the number of super spreader events to almost zero. With good testing and lots of capacity you can actually get to very low levels of infection by properly isolating just the symptomatic people as there are very few super spreader events linked to asymptomatic people so eventually those asymptomatic infections burn themselves out.
It is a tool in the arsenal and it needs to be backed by a very good testing system with processing capacity of 500k per day as well as a good contact tracing scheme. The idea behind a semi luxury hotel, three meals a day and £500 per week is that people won't be afraid to get tested and will in fact not mind a two week paid holiday in a nice hotel with catered food and £1000 to do it.
I think we also need the enforced quarantine and testing on arrival.
The thing is whatever your view on the Govt's current policy (until next Monday) to declare (as Starmer did) that the current approach "isn't working" when the latest measures haven't even come into force yet is disingenuous in the extreme. He also pins a large amount of the blame on the failure of Test and trace, but frankly if he sees that as the key problem then a 2-3 week lockdown is a laughable policy response. If the problem is test and trace, and it is fundamental to tackling the virus that it is fixed, then 2-3 weeks will do nothing. If he truly believes it then he should be calling for a reinstatement of the lockdown from March. The only reason he's proposed it is because it is something that SAGE apparently advised (4 weeks ago when the national situation was very different to how it is now) and the govt rejected.
Yeah, I thought that part was a bit much. He said the current restrictions, not yet entered into force, hadn't worked. Well, duh.
Except they have been in force in the NE for a month and in Greater Manchester for two.
Boris Johnson will consider a “circuit breaker” lockdown if his tier system fails to work after Sir Keir Starmer increased the pressure on him by calling for new national restrictions.
Government sources said the Prime Minister could order a two-week closure of pubs, restaurants and some other businesses if measures brought in on Wednesday in Covid hotspots do not reverse the spread of the virus.
A decision will be taken toward the end of next week, ahead of the half-term holiday for state schools which begins on Oct 26 and would mark the start of any temporary lockdown.
One option under consideration is for regional circuit breakers, which might be preferred by the Prime Minister after he likened a second national lockdown to a “nuclear deterrent”. One senior source said the chances of a circuit breaker were “at least 80 per cent”.
While I agree with a lot of what Max says, the idea of ankle bracelets to trace those who need to isolate would go down abour as well as South Korean spy app for track and trace.
It would be all good until they actually said they would do it and then the outcry would be deafening.
Call random time each day of quarantine on landline or location enabled smartphone app, plus home visits as required. Cover salary for quarantine and provide health visitor type cover to ensure people have access to what they need while they are in quarantine and also understand what they are required to do and why. Backed up by meaningful fines for infraction. Requires a serious effort but will massively pay off.
No, I think we the people have shown we can't be trusted with that system. It should now be taken out of our hands and put into the hands of the state. It pains me to say it as someone who believes in personal responsibility, but clearly the vast majority of people don't believe in that any longer.
AFAIK no checking is done at all on quarantine observance. Properly applied, daily checks should get compliance up to 95% plus, particularly if you lose your subsidy and potentially get a fine for infraction. I don't personally have strong objections to tagging. I suspect most people would probably prefer to be at home than a hotel, but agree the option should be available.
The thing is whatever your view on the Govt's current policy (until next Monday) to declare (as Starmer did) that the current approach "isn't working" when the latest measures haven't even come into force yet is disingenuous in the extreme. He also pins a large amount of the blame on the failure of Test and trace, but frankly if he sees that as the key problem then a 2-3 week lockdown is a laughable policy response. If the problem is test and trace, and it is fundamental to tackling the virus that it is fixed, then 2-3 weeks will do nothing. If he truly believes it then he should be calling for a reinstatement of the lockdown from March. The only reason he's proposed it is because it is something that SAGE apparently advised (4 weeks ago when the national situation was very different to how it is now) and the govt rejected.
Yeah, I thought that part was a bit much. He said the current restrictions, not yet entered into force, hadn't worked. Well, duh.
Except they have been in force in the NE for a month and in Greater Manchester for two.
With zero attempt at enforcement. The Govt has written laws with ever draconian penalties that are ignored because none of them are enforced.
The thing is whatever your view on the Govt's current policy (until next Monday) to declare (as Starmer did) that the current approach "isn't working" when the latest measures haven't even come into force yet is disingenuous in the extreme. He also pins a large amount of the blame on the failure of Test and trace, but frankly if he sees that as the key problem then a 2-3 week lockdown is a laughable policy response. If the problem is test and trace, and it is fundamental to tackling the virus that it is fixed, then 2-3 weeks will do nothing. If he truly believes it then he should be calling for a reinstatement of the lockdown from March. The only reason he's proposed it is because it is something that SAGE apparently advised (4 weeks ago when the national situation was very different to how it is now) and the govt rejected.
Yeah, I thought that part was a bit much. He said the current restrictions, not yet entered into force, hadn't worked. Well, duh.
Except they have been in force in the NE for a month and in Greater Manchester for two.
I see Big G is a ‘multiple screen name user’. I thought I’d never see the day.
Given the prevalence of this generally, and Sean’s incredible number of alter egos, I’m wondering whether there are in fact fewer than ten posters on PB.
I mean, what ever happened to Bobajob and TheLastBoyScout?
While I agree with a lot of what Max says, the idea of ankle bracelets to trace those who need to isolate would go down abour as well as South Korean spy app for track and trace.
It would be all good until they actually said they would do it and then the outcry would be deafening.
It's two weeks and £1400 to do it and I'd use wrist bracelets rather than the ankle ones which are obviously associated to convicts.
Also, it's the option for people who refuse two weeks in a hotel with three free meals a day and £1000.
I don't think it's unreasonable.
I don't either...but look at the screaming over does ordering a pasty equal a meal.
The media would go mental and find edge cases that they would mean it is inhuman. Just see the idea of not mixing households gets streams of people presented by the media where they have 3 different family groups, one kid recovering from cancer and another is autistic, yadda yadda yadda.
Fuck the noise and the headlines. Why have a majority of 80 if you can't do unpopular stuff. I also think it would be a very popular policy as after a few weeks the R would drop to basically zero and coupled with 5 day hotel quarantine and testing on arrival you could basically lift indoor social distancing restrictions and allow people to just get on with life. Then have a China style response to local outbreaks of basically knocking on doors and testing everyone in a local area at once and isolating them in hotels and so on.
Plus the fact there are a large number of folk who will have never experienced such luxury in their lives. Nor 3 cooked meals a day. Without work. And a huge pay rise to boot.
If we're going full China, why not just lock EVERYONE up? Why only those who have triggered a requirement to quarantine?
Was suggesting it wouldn't necessarily be unpopular. I refer any questions about the detail to @MaxPB. It's his idea.
While I agree with a lot of what Max says, the idea of ankle bracelets to trace those who need to isolate would go down abour as well as South Korean spy app for track and trace.
It would be all good until they actually said they would do it and then the outcry would be deafening.
Call random time each day of quarantine on landline or location enabled smartphone app, plus home visits as required. Cover salary for quarantine and provide health visitor type cover to ensure people have access to what they need while they are in quarantine and also understand what they are required to do and why. Backed up by meaningful fines for infraction. Requires a serious effort but will massively pay off.
No, I think we the people have shown we can't be trusted with that system. It should now be taken out of our hands and put into the hands of the state. It pains me to say it as someone who believes in personal responsibility, but clearly the vast majority of people don't believe in that any longer.
AFAIK no checking is done at all on quarantine observance. Properly applied, daily checks should get compliance up to 95% plus, particularly if you lose your subsidy and potentially get a fine for infraction. I don't personally have strong objections to tagging. I suspect most people would probably prefer to be at home than a hotel, but agree the option should be available.
Because the manpower required from law enforcement officers is just ridiculous. It's system that can't be enforced without the ankle/wrist bracelet based tracking that automated the whole process. I actually think most people would pick the home option too if there was no tracking, but probably hotel if there was because if you're stuck indoors then why not be stuck in a hotel room where you get all your meals provided.
The thing is whatever your view on the Govt's current policy (until next Monday) to declare (as Starmer did) that the current approach "isn't working" when the latest measures haven't even come into force yet is disingenuous in the extreme. He also pins a large amount of the blame on the failure of Test and trace, but frankly if he sees that as the key problem then a 2-3 week lockdown is a laughable policy response. If the problem is test and trace, and it is fundamental to tackling the virus that it is fixed, then 2-3 weeks will do nothing. If he truly believes it then he should be calling for a reinstatement of the lockdown from March. The only reason he's proposed it is because it is something that SAGE apparently advised (4 weeks ago when the national situation was very different to how it is now) and the govt rejected.
Yeah, I thought that part was a bit much. He said the current restrictions, not yet entered into force, hadn't worked. Well, duh.
Except they have been in force in the NE for a month and in Greater Manchester for two.
With zero attempt at enforcement. The Govt has written laws with ever draconian penalties that are ignored because none of them are enforced.
So you agree they aren't working? Because that was my point. I've been making it for a couple of weeks now.
I see Big G is a ‘multiple screen name user’. I thought I’d never see the day.
Given the prevalence of this generally, and Sean’s incredible number of alter egos, I’m wondering whether there are in fact fewer than ten posters on PB.
I mean, what ever happened to Bobajob and TheLastBoyScout?
There was Mr and Mrs Sockpuppet*, but that was a bit obvious in fairness.
Maybe it’s because I’m instinctively anti- national lockdowns, but thought Sir Keir was a bit unconvincing tonight.
It's unconvincing because he's identified a problem (track and trace) but his proposed solution (two week lockdown) does nothing to solve it. He's also identified a secondary order problem, the primary issue is people not isolating and again, the two week lockdown does nothing to solve that, at least not once it's over.
I wonder how likely white voters are to wait 11 hours to vote?
Especially wealthy white Americans?
What I don't understand is this. In the 11 hours or whatever of standing in line does anyone ever conclude "I am increasingly thinking to vote to re-elect the folks who organised this"?
The thing is whatever your view on the Govt's current policy (until next Monday) to declare (as Starmer did) that the current approach "isn't working" when the latest measures haven't even come into force yet is disingenuous in the extreme. He also pins a large amount of the blame on the failure of Test and trace, but frankly if he sees that as the key problem then a 2-3 week lockdown is a laughable policy response. If the problem is test and trace, and it is fundamental to tackling the virus that it is fixed, then 2-3 weeks will do nothing. If he truly believes it then he should be calling for a reinstatement of the lockdown from March. The only reason he's proposed it is because it is something that SAGE apparently advised (4 weeks ago when the national situation was very different to how it is now) and the govt rejected.
Yeah, I thought that part was a bit much. He said the current restrictions, not yet entered into force, hadn't worked. Well, duh.
Except they have been in force in the NE for a month and in Greater Manchester for two.
With zero attempt at enforcement. The Govt has written laws with ever draconian penalties that are ignored because none of them are enforced.
So you agree they aren't working? Because that was my point. I've been making it for a couple of weeks now.
My point is that if measures aren't working because people aren't following them due to lack of enforcement, rather than the inadequacy of the measures themselves, then the solution isn't to introduce new measures for people to fail to follow just as much, it is to work harder at enforcing the existing ones.
The thing is whatever your view on the Govt's current policy (until next Monday) to declare (as Starmer did) that the current approach "isn't working" when the latest measures haven't even come into force yet is disingenuous in the extreme. He also pins a large amount of the blame on the failure of Test and trace, but frankly if he sees that as the key problem then a 2-3 week lockdown is a laughable policy response. If the problem is test and trace, and it is fundamental to tackling the virus that it is fixed, then 2-3 weeks will do nothing. If he truly believes it then he should be calling for a reinstatement of the lockdown from March. The only reason he's proposed it is because it is something that SAGE apparently advised (4 weeks ago when the national situation was very different to how it is now) and the govt rejected.
Yeah, I thought that part was a bit much. He said the current restrictions, not yet entered into force, hadn't worked. Well, duh.
Except they have been in force in the NE for a month and in Greater Manchester for two.
I thought closing of hospitality was a new thing?
That isn't happening in either of those areas. Only Merseyside. We are on no change.
Dane County very heavily ballots requested / returned. Republican areas less ballot requests but high return rates in a fair few of them. Milwaukee certainly has not the enthusiasm of Dane County.
The thing is whatever your view on the Govt's current policy (until next Monday) to declare (as Starmer did) that the current approach "isn't working" when the latest measures haven't even come into force yet is disingenuous in the extreme. He also pins a large amount of the blame on the failure of Test and trace, but frankly if he sees that as the key problem then a 2-3 week lockdown is a laughable policy response. If the problem is test and trace, and it is fundamental to tackling the virus that it is fixed, then 2-3 weeks will do nothing. If he truly believes it then he should be calling for a reinstatement of the lockdown from March. The only reason he's proposed it is because it is something that SAGE apparently advised (4 weeks ago when the national situation was very different to how it is now) and the govt rejected.
Yeah, I thought that part was a bit much. He said the current restrictions, not yet entered into force, hadn't worked. Well, duh.
Except they have been in force in the NE for a month and in Greater Manchester for two.
With zero attempt at enforcement. The Govt has written laws with ever draconian penalties that are ignored because none of them are enforced.
So you agree they aren't working? Because that was my point. I've been making it for a couple of weeks now.
My point is that if measures aren't working because people aren't following them due to lack of enforcement, rather than the inadequacy of the measures themselves, then the solution isn't to introduce new measures for people to fail to follow just as much, it is to work harder at enforcing the existing ones.
The existing rules are impossible to enforce. The manpower in law enforcement officers simply doesn't exist to knock on enough doors.
The thing is whatever your view on the Govt's current policy (until next Monday) to declare (as Starmer did) that the current approach "isn't working" when the latest measures haven't even come into force yet is disingenuous in the extreme. He also pins a large amount of the blame on the failure of Test and trace, but frankly if he sees that as the key problem then a 2-3 week lockdown is a laughable policy response. If the problem is test and trace, and it is fundamental to tackling the virus that it is fixed, then 2-3 weeks will do nothing. If he truly believes it then he should be calling for a reinstatement of the lockdown from March. The only reason he's proposed it is because it is something that SAGE apparently advised (4 weeks ago when the national situation was very different to how it is now) and the govt rejected.
Yeah, I thought that part was a bit much. He said the current restrictions, not yet entered into force, hadn't worked. Well, duh.
Except they have been in force in the NE for a month and in Greater Manchester for two.
With zero attempt at enforcement. The Govt has written laws with ever draconian penalties that are ignored because none of them are enforced.
So you agree they aren't working? Because that was my point. I've been making it for a couple of weeks now.
My point is that if measures aren't working because people aren't following them due to lack of enforcement, rather than the inadequacy of the measures themselves, then the solution isn't to introduce new measures for people to fail to follow just as much, it is to work harder at enforcing the existing ones.
The existing rules are impossible to enforce. The manpower in law enforcement officers simply doesn't exist to knock on enough doors.
They aren't trying to enforce any of them. As a minimum they could make greater effort to enforce rules on businesses. Also you don't have to catch everyone. Just enough random spot checking that people think there is enough chance of being enforced upon that it is better to comply.
Nevada is proving interesting. According to 538 Trump has more chance of winning it — 14% — than of winning the electoral college overall — 13%. Clinton won it in 2016.
The thing is whatever your view on the Govt's current policy (until next Monday) to declare (as Starmer did) that the current approach "isn't working" when the latest measures haven't even come into force yet is disingenuous in the extreme. He also pins a large amount of the blame on the failure of Test and trace, but frankly if he sees that as the key problem then a 2-3 week lockdown is a laughable policy response. If the problem is test and trace, and it is fundamental to tackling the virus that it is fixed, then 2-3 weeks will do nothing. If he truly believes it then he should be calling for a reinstatement of the lockdown from March. The only reason he's proposed it is because it is something that SAGE apparently advised (4 weeks ago when the national situation was very different to how it is now) and the govt rejected.
Yeah, I thought that part was a bit much. He said the current restrictions, not yet entered into force, hadn't worked. Well, duh.
Except they have been in force in the NE for a month and in Greater Manchester for two.
With zero attempt at enforcement. The Govt has written laws with ever draconian penalties that are ignored because none of them are enforced.
So you agree they aren't working? Because that was my point. I've been making it for a couple of weeks now.
My point is that if measures aren't working because people aren't following them due to lack of enforcement, rather than the inadequacy of the measures themselves, then the solution isn't to introduce new measures for people to fail to follow just as much, it is to work harder at enforcing the existing ones.
The existing rules are impossible to enforce. The manpower in law enforcement officers simply doesn't exist to knock on enough doors.
They aren't trying to enforce any of them. As a minimum they could make greater effort to enforce rules on businesses.
Because they can't. We'd need the People's Liberation Army to be able enforce the current rulebook, it's hugely complicated and unnecessarily long.
The only type of lockdown that will have any effect is one lasting at least 3 months, and that isn't tenable from an economic and social point of view.
Looks like today was the day we were due to have 50,000 cases. If you go by reporting date data, then the UK is some way short of that, with 17,234 cases reported today. However, if you go by the specimen date data then we're currently on track to have 25,000 - 30,000 cases today. Bearing in mind the proportion of cases that we're detecting it could be that the ONS survey ends up reporting 50,000 for 13th October after all.
Nevada is proving interesting. According to 538 Trump has more chance of winning it — 14% — than of winning the electoral college overall — 13%. Clinton won it in 2016.
Nevada would be a consolation prize for him at most as if he loses Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin Biden will win the EC anyway even if Trump gains Nevada.
Gaining Virginia or Minnesota could make up for the loss of a rustbelt state for Trump, gaining Nevada would not
Nevada is proving interesting. According to 538 Trump has more chance of winning it — 14% — than of winning the electoral college overall — 13%. Clinton won it in 2016.
Nevada would be a consolation prize for him at most as if he loses Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin Biden will win the EC anyway even if Trump gains Nevada.
Gaining Virginia or Minnesota might make up for the loss of a rustbelt state for Trump, gaining Nevada would not
True unless of course we're in an otherwise deadlocked situation and the 5 ECVs would be very useful.
It's worth pointing out that the support of Starmer and a lot of the Labour metro mayors for a "circuit breaker" comes with significant conditions on financial support. Starmer also said that as part of this circuit breaker, schools should stay open. So it's not entirely clear how "locked down" this "mini lockdown" is! As was pointed out it really just seems to involve putting the entire country in Tier 3 for a couple of weeks. But if Tier 3 isn't going to work for the local areas in it, it's not clear why it will work for the less infected areas of the country.
Off topic from Covid but wasn't the deadline for a Brexit agreement supposed to be the day after tomorrow (which is when the European Council meets)? Has there been any news on this and are negotiations currently ongoing?
Looks like today was the day we were due to have 50,000 cases. If you go by reporting date data, then the UK is some way short of that, with 17,234 cases reported today. However, if you go by the specimen date data then we're currently on track to have 25,000 - 30,000 cases today. Bearing in mind the proportion of cases that we're detecting it could be that the ONS survey ends up reporting 50,000 for 13th October after all.
Wasn't Cleopatra of Greek descent? The Ptolemys were descended from one of Alexander the Great's generals.
Presumably why Mr Hall is only insisting on African, of 'any race'. Frankly I don't know whether any of the Ptolemies may have by that point been of mixed race or not, but it all seems pretty stupid, as we certainly cannot precisely match her genetic makeup in any case.
It's a British-Indian lady being cast to play Princess Jasmine all over again, and that was an adaption of a bloody Disney film.
Just make it a non-realistic movie, like that Mary Queen of Scot movie a year or so ago, no need to worry about race of participatants then.
It's worth pointing out that the support of Starmer and a lot of the Labour metro mayors for a "circuit breaker" comes with significant conditions on financial support. Starmer also said that as part of this circuit breaker, schools should stay open. So it's not entirely clear how "locked down" this "mini lockdown" is! As was pointed out it really just seems to involve putting the entire country in Tier 3 for a couple of weeks. But if Tier 3 isn't going to work for the local areas in it, it's not clear why it will work for the less infected areas of the country.
Its a bloody stupid idea.
If you're going to do something you need to do it a while. At least a month for it to bed in. All you will get is people getting pissed before the fortnight, then getting pissed as soon as it gets lifted and there'll be no meaningful reduction in rates but massive disruption as businesses lose any fresh stock etc
Off topic from Covid but wasn't the deadline for a Brexit agreement supposed to be the day after tomorrow (which is when the European Council meets)? Has there been any news on this and are negotiations currently ongoing?
What is the direction of travel in Missouri and West Virgina since 2016?
Trump won West Virginia by 42 points and Missouri by 18 points in 2016. The former in terms of that current poll is the real shocker with Trump ahead by 14 points .
Don't forget that WV was the last State in the South to convert from Dem to GOP, and the last Dem Governor of WV is still one of its Senators.
I thought WV broke away from Virginia to fight for the North.
LOLs. It was the GOP that ended slavery, so they broke with VA to become a GOP state. But for a long while after that, it was a solid Dem state.
I was talking about WV being considered a "Southern State".
Still south of the Mason-Dixie.
West Virginia is not so much a Southern state as an Appalachian state, and in fact is the only state that's wholly in the standard definition of "Appalachia". Appalachia is characterized by extreme poverty coupled with a spirit of independence strong even by American standards. The former would make you assume it would go to the Democrats, but it's outweighed by the latter and its concomitant distrust of "Big Government".
I seem to recall a bumper sticker: 'West Virginia - 2 million people, 20 families'.
West Virginia voted Democrat in every presidential election from 1932 until 2000 except the IKE, Nixon and Reagan landslides of 1956, 1972 and 1984 and was one of the most strongly Democratic states in the USA, since 2000 however it has only voted Republican and turned into a safe GOP state
Thanks to TimT & HYUFD for discussing WV based on facts. Rest is pretty funny.
1. WV indeed is bit better for Dems in 2020 than in 2016, but not by enough to write home about OR challenge continued GOP dominance for rest of decade at least.
2. Calling WV a Southern state is a stretch. Historically was considered a Border State, while for most of 20th century was considered a Middle Atlantic state. Note that southern WV is culturally part of Upland South, while northern WV (including two panhandles) is oriented more to Northeast esp PA & MD.
3. Creation of WV during Civil War was indeed engineered by Lincoln and GOP in order to provide a few sure EVs for Honest Abe in 1964 (which it turned out he did NOT need, but you never know!) However, plenty of evidence that majority of West Virginians actually sided with the South, in particular Virginia. So much so that during the war, most of southern WV recorded zero votes in elections; and after the war Republican dominance was based on disenfranchisement of ex-Confederates. As soon as these guys could vote, WV swung into Democratic column and stayed there for a generation until economic changes led to a swing toward the Republicans, which ended abruptly with Great Depression. From then on Democrats dominated Mountain State politics . . . until 2000.
4. In lead up to 2000, Dems had 100% of WV congressional delegation, including Sen. Robert C. Byrd who was true legend in his own time. BUT starting in 2000, the state voted GOP for president (thus winning the White House for W) and today the congressional delegation is all GOP except for Sen. Manchin, who is a special case. So what changed things? For starters, fact that WV did NOT participate in the economic prosperity under Bill Clinton, which was matched by continued decline of organized labor (once big is WV), coal and other rust-belt industries Then impact of (remember Obama?) guns and religion. Specifically, strong support of national (as opposed to local) Democratic party for gun control AND pro-choice. Finally, realization that you did NOT have to vote Democratic just because that was the way granny and the rest of you family had been voting since FDR if not before. (In this context, note that historically, descendants of pro-Unionists tended to vote Republican, esp. in rural areas, while descendants of pro-Confederates tended to vote Democratic; note this was common across Border States and also southern Midwest.
The thing is whatever your view on the Govt's current policy (until next Monday) to declare (as Starmer did) that the current approach "isn't working" when the latest measures haven't even come into force yet is disingenuous in the extreme. He also pins a large amount of the blame on the failure of Test and trace, but frankly if he sees that as the key problem then a 2-3 week lockdown is a laughable policy response. If the problem is test and trace, and it is fundamental to tackling the virus that it is fixed, then 2-3 weeks will do nothing. If he truly believes it then he should be calling for a reinstatement of the lockdown from March. The only reason he's proposed it is because it is something that SAGE apparently advised (4 weeks ago when the national situation was very different to how it is now) and the govt rejected.
Yeah, I thought that part was a bit much. He said the current restrictions, not yet entered into force, hadn't worked. Well, duh.
Except they have been in force in the NE for a month and in Greater Manchester for two.
With zero attempt at enforcement. The Govt has written laws with ever draconian penalties that are ignored because none of them are enforced.
So you agree they aren't working? Because that was my point. I've been making it for a couple of weeks now.
My point is that if measures aren't working because people aren't following them due to lack of enforcement, rather than the inadequacy of the measures themselves, then the solution isn't to introduce new measures for people to fail to follow just as much, it is to work harder at enforcing the existing ones.
Well indeed. A few early big fines and loss of licences might have worked. Too late
But surely the issues are:- 1. Any effective circuit breaker will have to last much longer than 2 - 3 weeks; & 2. Will all those businesses closed down during this circuit break be properly compensated for the duration?
Sunak doesn’t want to do the latter & so is vetoing the former.
Starmer wants to do the former. What is Labour’s view on the second? And will they still vote for a circuit breaker if there is no or no adequate compensation for affected businesses and employees?
Maybe it’s because I’m instinctively anti- national lockdowns, but thought Sir Keir was a bit unconvincing tonight.
He's always unconvincing
Captain Hindsight!
How can you call him Captain Hindsight when he has proposed something new that the government may end up copying several weeks late? Wouldn't that make him more like Admiral Foresight?
It'll be a huge drop in Tory support then. It's conceivable that though not much has changed the cumulative drip of some bad press and the weighing factor of Covid and looming economic troubles will have led to a critical moment (at least in one poll) and see a big Labour lead as a result. It seems less conceivable that Sir Cautious Starmer will have upset enough people since the last poll to see the Tories resume a big lead.
But surely the issues are:- 1. Any effective circuit breaker will have to last much longer than 2 - 3 weeks; & 2. Will all those businesses closed down during this circuit break be properly compensated for the duration?
Sunak doesn’t want to do the latter & so is vetoing the former.
Starmer wants to do the former. What is Labour’s view on the second? And will they still vote for a circuit breaker if there is no or no adequate compensation for affected businesses and employees?
No. It is conditional on full financial support.
So probably what will happen is that Johnson will "turn the tables" on Starmer by announcing a "circuit breaker" for public health reasons. There won't be full compensation for businesses. And Starmer will abstain on the vote.
People need to learn to pick their targets when getting outraged, left and right. Choose poorly and you just undermine whatever cause you want to advance.
But surely the issues are:- 1. Any effective circuit breaker will have to last much longer than 2 - 3 weeks; & 2. Will all those businesses closed down during this circuit break be properly compensated for the duration?
Sunak doesn’t want to do the latter & so is vetoing the former.
Starmer wants to do the former. What is Labour’s view on the second? And will they still vote for a circuit breaker if there is no or no adequate compensation for affected businesses and employees?
There is a lot of ignorance about business that makes people make suggestions they don't understand the consquences of.
The thing I think many people don't realise is that the cost of shutting down for a fortnight is not simply lost sales for that fortnight etc . . . any pub or restaurant for instance will have to chuck out virtually all its fresh stock. Ale Kegs that had been ordered and paid for would be written offer, any kegs tapped would definitely be wasted, but even untapped ones could be too.
You can close your doors at night and reopen the next day. You can't just shut down for a fortnight and blink as if nothing has happened. The damage would be tremendous.
What is the direction of travel in Missouri and West Virgina since 2016?
Trump won West Virginia by 42 points and Missouri by 18 points in 2016. The former in terms of that current poll is the real shocker with Trump ahead by 14 points .
Don't forget that WV was the last State in the South to convert from Dem to GOP, and the last Dem Governor of WV is still one of its Senators.
I thought WV broke away from Virginia to fight for the North.
LOLs. It was the GOP that ended slavery, so they broke with VA to become a GOP state. But for a long while after that, it was a solid Dem state.
I was talking about WV being considered a "Southern State".
Still south of the Mason-Dixie.
West Virginia is not so much a Southern state as an Appalachian state, and in fact is the only state that's wholly in the standard definition of "Appalachia". Appalachia is characterized by extreme poverty coupled with a spirit of independence strong even by American standards. The former would make you assume it would go to the Democrats, but it's outweighed by the latter and its concomitant distrust of "Big Government".
I seem to recall a bumper sticker: 'West Virginia - 2 million people, 20 families'.
West Virginia voted Democrat in every presidential election from 1932 until 2000 except the IKE, Nixon and Reagan landslides of 1956, 1972 and 1984 and was one of the most strongly Democratic states in the USA, since 2000 however it has only voted Republican and turned into a safe GOP state
Thanks to TimT & HYUFD for discussing WV based on facts. Rest is pretty funny.
1. WV indeed is bit better for Dems in 2020 than in 2016, but not by enough to write home about OR challenge continued GOP dominance for rest of decade at least.
2. Calling WV a Southern state is a stretch. Historically was considered a Border State, while for most of 20th century was considered a Middle Atlantic state. Note that southern WV is culturally part of Upland South, while northern WV (including two panhandles) is oriented more to Northeast esp PA & MD.
3. Creation of WV during Civil War was indeed engineered by Lincoln and GOP in order to provide a few sure EVs for Honest Abe in 1964 (which it turned out he did NOT need, but you never know!) However, plenty of evidence that majority of West Virginians actually sided with the South, in particular Virginia. So much so that during the war, most of southern WV recorded zero votes in elections; and after the war Republican dominance was based on disenfranchisement of ex-Confederates. As soon as these guys could vote, WV swung into Democratic column and stayed there for a generation until economic changes led to a swing toward the Republicans, which ended abruptly with Great Depression. From then on Democrats dominated Mountain State politics . . . until 2000.
4. In lead up to 2000, Dems had 100% of WV congressional delegation, including Sen. Robert C. Byrd who was true legend in his own time. BUT starting in 2000, the state voted GOP for president (thus winning the White House for W) and today the congressional delegation is all GOP except for Sen. Manchin, who is a special case. So what changed things? For starters, fact that WV did NOT participate in the economic prosperity under Bill Clinton, which was matched by continued decline of organized labor (once big is WV), coal and other rust-belt industries Then impact of (remember Obama?) guns and religion. Specifically, strong support of national (as opposed to local) Democratic party for gun control AND pro-choice. Finally, realization that you did NOT have to vote Democratic just because that was the way granny and the rest of you family had been voting since FDR if not before. (In this context, note that historically, descendants of pro-Unionists tended to vote Republican, esp. in rural areas, while descendants of pro-Confederates tended to vote Democratic; note this was common across Border States and also southern Midwest.
The fact West Virginia has shifted to the Republicans is also a sign of how the GOP a bit like the Tories are increasingly the party of the white working class not the upper middle class as they used to be.
50 years ago wealthy New Hampshire was the classic GOP safe state, now it is white working class West Virginia.
Similarly in the UK 50 years ago wealthy Surrey was the classic safe Tory county, now it is white working class Lincolnshire where the Tories got their highest voteshare last year.
The thing is whatever your view on the Govt's current policy (until next Monday) to declare (as Starmer did) that the current approach "isn't working" when the latest measures haven't even come into force yet is disingenuous in the extreme. He also pins a large amount of the blame on the failure of Test and trace, but frankly if he sees that as the key problem then a 2-3 week lockdown is a laughable policy response. If the problem is test and trace, and it is fundamental to tackling the virus that it is fixed, then 2-3 weeks will do nothing. If he truly believes it then he should be calling for a reinstatement of the lockdown from March. The only reason he's proposed it is because it is something that SAGE apparently advised (4 weeks ago when the national situation was very different to how it is now) and the govt rejected.
Yeah, I thought that part was a bit much. He said the current restrictions, not yet entered into force, hadn't worked. Well, duh.
Except they have been in force in the NE for a month and in Greater Manchester for two.
With zero attempt at enforcement. The Govt has written laws with ever draconian penalties that are ignored because none of them are enforced.
So you agree they aren't working? Because that was my point. I've been making it for a couple of weeks now.
My point is that if measures aren't working because people aren't following them due to lack of enforcement, rather than the inadequacy of the measures themselves, then the solution isn't to introduce new measures for people to fail to follow just as much, it is to work harder at enforcing the existing ones.
The existing rules are impossible to enforce. The manpower in law enforcement officers simply doesn't exist to knock on enough doors.
They aren't trying to enforce any of them. As a minimum they could make greater effort to enforce rules on businesses.
Because they can't. We'd need the People's Liberation Army to be able enforce the current rulebook, it's hugely complicated and unnecessarily long.
Maybe it’s because I’m instinctively anti- national lockdowns, but thought Sir Keir was a bit unconvincing tonight.
He's always unconvincing
Captain Hindsight!
How can you call him Captain Hindsight when he has proposed something new that the government may end up copying several weeks late? Wouldn't that make him more like Admiral Foresight?
Oh come off it. Everyone knows he only proposed it because it turned up as a potential recommendation in the SAGE minutes. People have been flagging the idea of a circuit breaker in October for weeks. He's hardly come up with the idea himself.
And he's even given himself a get out because he's attached conditions to it. Including schools not shutting and full compensation for businesses.
But surely the issues are:- 1. Any effective circuit breaker will have to last much longer than 2 - 3 weeks; & 2. Will all those businesses closed down during this circuit break be properly compensated for the duration?
Sunak doesn’t want to do the latter & so is vetoing the former.
Starmer wants to do the former. What is Labour’s view on the second? And will they still vote for a circuit breaker if there is no or no adequate compensation for affected businesses and employees?
Starmer was pretty clear he wanted compensation. Which will provide a convenient get out for opposing it. With this, tonight's rebellion and Thursday's deadline Bozza has produced himself a pretty pickle.
Maybe it’s because I’m instinctively anti- national lockdowns, but thought Sir Keir was a bit unconvincing tonight.
He's always unconvincing
Captain Hindsight!
How can you call him Captain Hindsight when he has proposed something new that the government may end up copying several weeks late? Wouldn't that make him more like Admiral Foresight?
Oh come off it. Everyone knows he only proposed it because it turned up as a potential recommendation in the SAGE minutes. People have been flagging the idea of a circuit breaker in October for weeks. He's hardly come up with the idea himself.
And he's even given himself a get out because he's attached conditions to it. Including schools not shutting and full compensation for businesses.
But surely the issues are:- 1. Any effective circuit breaker will have to last much longer than 2 - 3 weeks; & 2. Will all those businesses closed down during this circuit break be properly compensated for the duration?
Sunak doesn’t want to do the latter & so is vetoing the former.
Starmer wants to do the former. What is Labour’s view on the second? And will they still vote for a circuit breaker if there is no or no adequate compensation for affected businesses and employees?
There is a lot of ignorance about business that makes people make suggestions they don't understand the consquences of.
The thing I think many people don't realise is that the cost of shutting down for a fortnight is not simply lost sales for that fortnight etc . . . any pub or restaurant for instance will have to chuck out virtually all its fresh stock. Ale Kegs that had been ordered and paid for would be written offer, any kegs tapped would definitely be wasted, but even untapped ones could be too.
You can close your doors at night and reopen the next day. You can't just shut down for a fortnight and blink as if nothing has happened. The damage would be tremendous.
You also couldn't just reopen on the dot in two weeks time. Or not unless you were sure that it would be allowed. Any pubs decision on reopening would wait for the restrictions to actually be lifted. And then a further 2 weeks minimum to organise the resupply of stock etc
Of course the Govt financial support scheme (whatever it was) would likely only cover the 2 week period.
During the first lockdown businesses adapted, and started pivoting towards offering takeaways and the like. But they could do that in the knowledge that the lockdown was likely to be lengthy. This can't be done for a couple of weeks. Many just won't reopen their doors.
The rumour is that Johnson was quite happy to propose a circuit breaker lockdown two weeks ago, but Sunak vetoed it.
And if that's the case... where does this leave Rishi? Being anti-circuit breaker will do him no harm at all with an important part of the Conservative party, but put him at odds with the general public. A lot of his popularity at the moment is being the nice / generous Tory.
In all this short circuit stuff, where Johnny 5's modelling appears to provide ridiculously wide levels for the potential outcome, the most important news of the day is actually from Oxford vaccine bods saying even if we found our vaccine worked tomorrow (which we won't), you would all be living under restrictions under at least next summer.
I think it is becoming increasingly clear we should be bracing ourselves that it will be another 12 months now, because I can see hold up in approval, distribution etc etc etc.
What is the direction of travel in Missouri and West Virgina since 2016?
Trump won West Virginia by 42 points and Missouri by 18 points in 2016. The former in terms of that current poll is the real shocker with Trump ahead by 14 points .
Don't forget that WV was the last State in the South to convert from Dem to GOP, and the last Dem Governor of WV is still one of its Senators.
I thought WV broke away from Virginia to fight for the North.
LOLs. It was the GOP that ended slavery, so they broke with VA to become a GOP state. But for a long while after that, it was a solid Dem state.
I was talking about WV being considered a "Southern State".
Still south of the Mason-Dixie.
West Virginia is not so much a Southern state as an Appalachian state, and in fact is the only state that's wholly in the standard definition of "Appalachia". Appalachia is characterized by extreme poverty coupled with a spirit of independence strong even by American standards. The former would make you assume it would go to the Democrats, but it's outweighed by the latter and its concomitant distrust of "Big Government".
I seem to recall a bumper sticker: 'West Virginia - 2 million people, 20 families'.
West Virginia voted Democrat in every presidential election from 1932 until 2000 except the IKE, Nixon and Reagan landslides of 1956, 1972 and 1984 and was one of the most strongly Democratic states in the USA, since 2000 however it has only voted Republican and turned into a safe GOP state
Thanks to TimT & HYUFD for discussing WV based on facts. Rest is pretty funny.
1. WV indeed is bit better for Dems in 2020 than in 2016, but not by enough to write home about OR challenge continued GOP dominance for rest of decade at least.
2. Calling WV a Southern state is a stretch. Historically was considered a Border State, while for most of 20th century was considered a Middle Atlantic state. Note that southern WV is culturally part of Upland South, while northern WV (including two panhandles) is oriented more to Northeast esp PA & MD.
3. Creation of WV during Civil War was indeed engineered by Lincoln and GOP in order to provide a few sure EVs for Honest Abe in 1964 (which it turned out he did NOT need, but you never know!) However, plenty of evidence that majority of West Virginians actually sided with the South, in particular Virginia. So much so that during the war, most of southern WV recorded zero votes in elections; and after the war Republican dominance was based on disenfranchisement of ex-Confederates. As soon as these guys could vote, WV swung into Democratic column and stayed there for a generation until economic changes led to a swing toward the Republicans, which ended abruptly with Great Depression. From then on Democrats dominated Mountain State politics . . . until 2000.
4. In lead up to 2000, Dems had 100% of WV congressional delegation, including Sen. Robert C. Byrd who was true legend in his own time. BUT starting in 2000, the state voted GOP for president (thus winning the White House for W) and today the congressional delegation is all GOP except for Sen. Manchin, who is a special case. So what changed things? For starters, fact that WV did NOT participate in the economic prosperity under Bill Clinton, which was matched by continued decline of organized labor (once big is WV), coal and other rust-belt industries Then impact of (remember Obama?) guns and religion. Specifically, strong support of national (as opposed to local) Democratic party for gun control AND pro-choice. Finally, realization that you did NOT have to vote Democratic just because that was the way granny and the rest of you family had been voting since FDR if not before. (In this context, note that historically, descendants of pro-Unionists tended to vote Republican, esp. in rural areas, while descendants of pro-Confederates tended to vote Democratic; note this was common across Border States and also southern Midwest.
The fact West Virginia has shifted to the Republicans is also a sign of how the GOP a bit like the Tories are increasingly the party of the white working class not the upper middle class as they used to be.
50 years ago wealthy New Hampshire was the classic GOP safe state, now it is white working class West Virginia.
Similarly in the UK 50 years ago wealthy Surrey was the classic safe Tory county, now it is white working class Lincolnshire where the Tories got their highest voteshare last year.
SeaShanty - slight correction about WV. It wasn't created in 1864 to give Abe some extra EV voters, it was because those counties of (then) Virginia sided with the Union against the Confederacy and rebelled. Lincoln then agreed to split WV off.
Maybe it’s because I’m instinctively anti- national lockdowns, but thought Sir Keir was a bit unconvincing tonight.
He's always unconvincing
Captain Hindsight!
How can you call him Captain Hindsight when he has proposed something new that the government may end up copying several weeks late? Wouldn't that make him more like Admiral Foresight?
Oh come off it. Everyone knows he only proposed it because it turned up as a potential recommendation in the SAGE minutes. People have been flagging the idea of a circuit breaker in October for weeks. He's hardly come up with the idea himself.
And he's even given himself a get out because he's attached conditions to it. Including schools not shutting and full compensation for businesses.
The bee here is Jon Snow of Channel 4 News. Who continues to front Channel 4 News from the comfort of his own home. (St David Attenborough would also serve well as the bee for the purposes of this metaphor). The bonnet is my quietude.
Unemployment rates are climbing steeply. Young people are struggling to find jobs. Old and very wealthy established media and other industry individuals are, in my opinion, selfishly bed blocking the route to promotion of their younger counterparts.
Surely these "titans", these "national treasures" should - and could - step aside and be utilised in a voluntary, advisory and unpaid capacity and make way for younger talents?
Comments
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cleopatra#Ancestry
cannot vouch for accuracy, but looks ok
November 3: Election Day
12:00 a.m. to 12:30 a.m: New Hampshire midnight voting
6:00 p.m EST: Polls close in
Eastern Time Zone sections of Indiana and Kentucky (most of these states)
7:00 p.m EST: Polls close in:
Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia, Vermont and part of New Hampshire
Eastern Time Zone sections of Florida
Central Time Zone sections of Indiana and Kentucky
7:30 p.m EST: Polls close in
North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia
8:00 p.m EST: Polls close in:
Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee and District of Columbia
rest of New Hampshire
Selected areas of North Dakota
Eastern Time Zone sections of Michigan (most of state)
Central Time Zone sections of Florida
Central Time Zone sections of Kansas, South Dakota and Texas (most of these states)
8:30 p.m EST: Polls close in
Arkansas
9:00 p.m EST: Polls close in:
Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Wisconsin and Wyoming
Remaining areas of North Dakota
Central Time Zone sections of Michigan
Mountain Time Zone sections of Kansas, South Dakota and Texas
10:00 p.m EST: Polls close in:
Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah
Mountain Time Zone sections of Idaho and Oregon
11:00 p.m: Polls close in:
California, Hawaii and Washington
Pacific Time Zone sections of Idaho and Oregon
NOTE as per long-standing agreement, this is earliest that the media will declare presidential race
November 4:
12:00 a.m EST: Polls close in
Alaska Time Zone sections of Alaska (most of state)
1:00 a.m: Polls close
Hawaii–Aleutian Zone sections of Alaska
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316019300059107328?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1315991731612143616?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1315991204690042880?s=20
Apparently there was such a thing as the Casio Loopy, but it was a limited thing.
Back to normal hopefully
And tomorrow now
Good night folks
Which is the wrong way round. You chuck the dodgy ones out ASAP and stick to policies that you believe are right regardless of the noise.
With good testing and lots of capacity you can actually get to very low levels of infection by properly isolating just the symptomatic people as there are very few super spreader events linked to asymptomatic people so eventually those asymptomatic infections burn themselves out.
It is a tool in the arsenal and it needs to be backed by a very good testing system with processing capacity of 500k per day as well as a good contact tracing scheme. The idea behind a semi luxury hotel, three meals a day and £500 per week is that people won't be afraid to get tested and will in fact not mind a two week paid holiday in a nice hotel with catered food and £1000 to do it.
I think we also need the enforced quarantine and testing on arrival.
"Rutland - THE perfect place for your next dirty weekend!"
I wonder how likely white voters are to wait 11 hours to vote?
Especially wealthy white Americans?
Given the prevalence of this generally, and Sean’s incredible number of alter egos, I’m wondering whether there are in fact fewer than ten posters on PB.
I mean, what ever happened to Bobajob and TheLastBoyScout?
I refer any questions about the detail to @MaxPB. It's his idea.
Night all.
*not really, sadly
I don’t give it much credence TBH, useful to watch for trends.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316135419705282560?s=20
In the 11 hours or whatever of standing in line does anyone ever conclude "I am increasingly thinking to vote to re-elect the folks who organised this"?
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/WI.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/politics/wisconsin-political-geography/
Dane County very heavily ballots requested / returned. Republican areas less ballot requests but high return rates in a fair few of them. Milwaukee certainly has not the enthusiasm of Dane County.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/nevada/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
WEAK. WEAK. WEAK.
https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1316033293851201536/photo/1
Gaining Virginia or Minnesota could make up for the loss of a rustbelt state for Trump, gaining Nevada would not
Gal Gadot's Cleopatra film sparks 'whitewashing' claims
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54529836
If you're going to do something you need to do it a while. At least a month for it to bed in. All you will get is people getting pissed before the fortnight, then getting pissed as soon as it gets lifted and there'll be no meaningful reduction in rates but massive disruption as businesses lose any fresh stock etc
Absolute insanity.
Post covid issues will not be good news for the incumbent.
https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-54526771
Why shouldn't a Middle Eastern actress play a role for someone from antiquity who descended from the Greeks and lived in the Middle East?
Not to forget that the film was commissioned by . . . Gal Gadot herself. Its her film, she has arranged, she has commissioned and she is starring in.
Captain Hindsight!
FAKE NEWS! SAD!
1. WV indeed is bit better for Dems in 2020 than in 2016, but not by enough to write home about OR challenge continued GOP dominance for rest of decade at least.
2. Calling WV a Southern state is a stretch. Historically was considered a Border State, while for most of 20th century was considered a Middle Atlantic state. Note that southern WV is culturally part of Upland South, while northern WV (including two panhandles) is oriented more to Northeast esp PA & MD.
3. Creation of WV during Civil War was indeed engineered by Lincoln and GOP in order to provide a few sure EVs for Honest Abe in 1964 (which it turned out he did NOT need, but you never know!) However, plenty of evidence that majority of West Virginians actually sided with the South, in particular Virginia. So much so that during the war, most of southern WV recorded zero votes in elections; and after the war Republican dominance was based on disenfranchisement of ex-Confederates. As soon as these guys could vote, WV swung into Democratic column and stayed there for a generation until economic changes led to a swing toward the Republicans, which ended abruptly with Great Depression. From then on Democrats dominated Mountain State politics . . . until 2000.
4. In lead up to 2000, Dems had 100% of WV congressional delegation, including Sen. Robert C. Byrd who was true legend in his own time. BUT starting in 2000, the state voted GOP for president (thus winning the White House for W) and today the congressional delegation is all GOP except for Sen. Manchin, who is a special case. So what changed things? For starters, fact that WV did NOT participate in the economic prosperity under Bill Clinton, which was matched by continued decline of organized labor (once big is WV), coal and other rust-belt industries Then impact of (remember Obama?) guns and religion. Specifically, strong support of national (as opposed to local) Democratic party for gun control AND pro-choice. Finally, realization that you did NOT have to vote Democratic just because that was the way granny and the rest of you family had been voting since FDR if not before. (In this context, note that historically, descendants of pro-Unionists tended to vote Republican, esp. in rural areas, while descendants of pro-Confederates tended to vote Democratic; note this was common across Border States and also southern Midwest.
But surely the issues are:-
1. Any effective circuit breaker will have to last much longer than 2 - 3 weeks; &
2. Will all those businesses closed down during this circuit break be properly compensated for the duration?
Sunak doesn’t want to do the latter & so is vetoing the former.
Starmer wants to do the former. What is Labour’s view on the second? And will they still vote for a circuit breaker if there is no or no adequate compensation for affected businesses and employees?
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/13/dropbox-latest-san-francisco-tech-company-making-remote-work-permanent.html
So probably what will happen is that Johnson will "turn the tables" on Starmer by announcing a "circuit breaker" for public health reasons. There won't be full compensation for businesses. And Starmer will abstain on the vote.
The thing I think many people don't realise is that the cost of shutting down for a fortnight is not simply lost sales for that fortnight etc . . . any pub or restaurant for instance will have to chuck out virtually all its fresh stock. Ale Kegs that had been ordered and paid for would be written offer, any kegs tapped would definitely be wasted, but even untapped ones could be too.
You can close your doors at night and reopen the next day. You can't just shut down for a fortnight and blink as if nothing has happened. The damage would be tremendous.
50 years ago wealthy New Hampshire was the classic GOP safe state, now it is white working class West Virginia.
Similarly in the UK 50 years ago wealthy Surrey was the classic safe Tory county, now it is white working class Lincolnshire where the Tories got their highest voteshare last year.
But honestly, it's no John Wayne playing Genghis Khan or white person in blackface.
And he's even given himself a get out because he's attached conditions to it. Including schools not shutting and full compensation for businesses.
https://twitter.com/GalGadot/status/1316120452335570949?s=20
Which will provide a convenient get out for opposing it.
With this, tonight's rebellion and Thursday's deadline Bozza has produced himself a pretty pickle.
Of course the Govt financial support scheme (whatever it was) would likely only cover the 2 week period.
During the first lockdown businesses adapted, and started pivoting towards offering takeaways and the like. But they could do that in the knowledge that the lockdown was likely to be lengthy. This can't be done for a couple of weeks. Many just won't reopen their doors.
I think it is becoming increasingly clear we should be bracing ourselves that it will be another 12 months now, because I can see hold up in approval, distribution etc etc etc.
Yeah the whole movie is her project that she initiated and she has organised. It was her idea and she wasn't "cast" as Cleopatra, she didn't audition herself!
https://twitter.com/GalGadot/status/1315443922957729792
Honestly this whole furore is absolutely preposterous. Why shouldn't an Israeli be able to portray a Greek?
I think this debate shows up some people's ignorance, that they don't even know who Cleopatra was.
The bee here is Jon Snow of Channel 4 News. Who continues to front Channel 4 News from the comfort of his own home. (St David Attenborough would also serve well as the bee for the purposes of this metaphor). The bonnet is my quietude.
Unemployment rates are climbing steeply. Young people are struggling to find jobs. Old and very wealthy established media and other industry individuals are, in my opinion, selfishly bed blocking the route to promotion of their younger counterparts.
Surely these "titans", these "national treasures" should - and could - step aside and be utilised in a voluntary, advisory and unpaid capacity and make way for younger talents?