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The other big US election three weeks today – the fight to control the Senate – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 13 in General
The other big US election three weeks today – the fight to control the Senate – politicalbetting.com

The above Economist video gives a good analysis for those punters who plan to have a bet on on the race to control the US senate – which is being voted on at the same time as the President three weeks today.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066
    edited October 13
    First...as in to say we are all going to hell in a handcart if Boris claim there may never be a vaccine turns out to be true.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 15,100
    edited October 13
    Second, like Boris’ new lockdown.
  • Douglas Hurd
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,177
    edited October 13
    Starmer getting pelters on facebook. Deserved. As so many are asking why on earth would you ruin the economy of areas with low amounts of cases when businesses are just about surviving as it is?
    You can't just complain about pubs shutting too early last week and then this week say they all need to shut full stop. Guy is all over the place.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,106
    So the Tory rebels had the numbers but Labour let country down. Starmer is all talk as usual.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 15,100
    All the hard gains from the sacrifice in the Spring chucked away. Tragic.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,106
    Snap reaction among friends - not sure what two weeks will achieve. Lots of laughs at the 3k-107k range being used as evidence in favour.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,502
    The YMCA/MAGA anthem is the first time Trump's campaign has had a hint of the mojo of 2016.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066
    edited October 13
    MaxPB said:

    Snap reaction among friends - not sure what two weeks will achieve. Lots of laughs at the 3k-107k range being used as evidence in favour.

    We might all laugh about the nonsense of such a range, but I bet the media lead with Starmer calls for circuit breaker, SAGE says it will save 100k lives....bit like Witty's "its not a prediction", turned into Witty / Valance predict 50k cases a day by mid October.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 3,763

    First...as in to say we are all going to hell in a handcart if Boris claim there may never be a vaccine turns out to be true.

    I have been saying that for months. The tagline at the top of this website should read "Predictions are hard to make, especially about the future." Anyone stating anything is a cert rather than a more or less probable outcome, especially on a betting site, is an idiot.

    What we have been faced with here is the loadsamoney fallacy: "OK, in the past we have failed to find vaccines for things, but have you seen how much Bill Gates alone has put into this?" Nature doesn't care about ROI.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,817
    If there's to be more restrictions on businesses operating, there really needs to be a mandatory hotel quarantine for all incomers to the country, subject to testing.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,177
    MaxPB said:

    So the Tory rebels had the numbers but Labour let country down. Starmer is all talk as usual.
    The man has no balls. There is need for a 10pm close, it would be considerably more effective to just shut the few establishments that are taking the piss with zero covid measures.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,671
    FPT:
    Stocky said:

    Sandpit said:

    Stocky said:

    MaxPB said:

    PB Tories will deny it but the only thing that has worked in the UK was a lockdown. The mistake was coming out too quickly without a proper track and trace system. We can only blame Johnson for that.

    Ok think this through for more than two seconds then. What will another lockdown achieve, given that we know there still won't be a properr track, trace and isolate system in place afterwards.
    I might change my mind tomorrow, but I think I agree that isolating everyone is a distraction from working out how to isolate the infectious.

    We've had nearly seven months now of arguing in exhaustive detail over restrictions that apply to the whole population, and government funding for compensation for the same. We'd be in a better place now if we'd had that attention on working out how to isolate the infectious.

    I don't want a whole winter of arguing over lockdown restrictions and still not having a system for isolating the infectious.
    How would this actually work though? My household of four decided in March that if I, for instance, caught the virus I would isolate in a room of our house with a bathroom until I was better plus a few days. What do you mean by "isolating the infectious"?
    People who can't do that (because their house is more crowded than yours), be sent to an hotel for the duration of their isolation.
    Such a person would possibly be infecting others in addition to his family by leaving the home - and who would volunteer to staff such a hotel? Plus - the numbers of rooms that would be needed. This strikes me as an unworkable idea unless new infections were really low.
    Edit: and, of course, who would monitor the ongoing health status of the room occupiers to determine whether medical assistance /hospitalisation was needed? Each person would have to be on 24 hour watch.
    A use for the Nightingales. Regular monitoring, but light on staff. PPE for staff. If someone sickens, then transfer to a proper hospital.

    The numbers are beginning to get scary again, particularly in the purple wall, but I don't think the country can bear another total shutdown, either economically or socially.

    Its going to be bloody horrible for the next six weeks and will shred our recovery plan.

    The government is yet to drop fines on Trusts for not meeting waiting list targets, inflicting financial penalties on the most overstretched.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 14,742
    Sorry, from PT -
    isam said:

    Well yes, but I think you are deliberately making up scenarios that favour your point, whereas Andy's original post assumed a level of understanding from the reader that I think you have, but feign ignorance of.

    A fair cop. I will give you my sincere and serious view.

    The health v wealth question for this vile new disease is a nonsense. There is no such choice to be made. There is simply an imperative to suppress the serious cases within NHS capacity until our toolbox of treatments and vaccines is full enough (of such tools) for us to relax and live and let live.

    How to suppress the virus? Rigorous distancing. This is the only way. For whatever reason (I have theories but it doesn't matter) an effective test, track & isolate system here is a Not Happening Event.

    The question therefore is should the distancing regime be a government led, organized process, or should it be left to the population to implement. For me this is a no-brainer. It's better if the government cajole and compel us to do what is needed. If it's left to us we will soon see an anarchic, panic driven, highly irrational climate that would lead to a worse Covid outcome AND a worse social and economic outcome.

    It would also beg the question why we even have a government and imo this is a question that it is inadvisable to beg.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 6,964

    First...as in to say we are all going to hell in a handcart if Boris claim there may never be a vaccine turns out to be true.

    But it will be a world beating non-vaccine!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 7,446
    FPT..
    Evening all :)

    Just three weeks until Election Day in the US and four days before polling in New Zealand so I'll start there.

    The latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll has Labour on 47%, National on 32%, ACT on 8% and the Greens on 6%.

    In terms of seats, Labour would win 60, National 41, ACT 11 and Greens 8 so Labour can effectively govern alone but a continuation of the coalition with the Greens would have a comfortable majority.

    Back to America and Trafalgar (everyone's favourite pollster) has Biden up just two in Pennsylvania. Other polls show Biden enjoying small but far from solid leads in Florida and North Carolina but we then have the WPA Intelligence poll for the Las Vegas Review Journal showing Biden leading Trump 44-42.

    Adding some important detail, 3% are supporting Jorgensen, 1% are backing Don Blankenship, the IAPN candidate leaving 4% on "None of the Above" and 6% Undecided.

    I've moved Nevada back to TCTC as with a large section of the Hispanic vote still to decide, it's very difficult to assume Biden has this in the bag. OTOH, I've moved North Carolina into the Blue camp - Trump hasn't led in a poll in the state for nearly a month and while the lead is well within Margin of Error, I think Biden will nick this state so at the moment I'm on 299-161 with 78 TCTC.

    One state still very much in the Red camp is Missouri which Trump won by 18.5 points in 2016. The latest poll has Trump ahead 52-43 so a swing of 4.25% to Biden since 2016. Back in 2008, Obama got to within 4,000 votes of winning the state but that was then and this is now (as someone once said).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,671
    Brom said:

    Starmer getting pelters on facebook. Deserved. As so many are asking why on earth would you ruin the economy of areas with low amounts of cases when businesses are just about surviving as it is?
    You can't just complain about pubs shutting too early last week and then this week say they all need to shut full stop. Guy is all over the place.

    I suspect Johnson and Co will bottle it and have such a shutdown in a few weeks. They are always behind the curve. I don't think Johnson is resolute enough to stick it out. Fundamentally he is a coward.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066
    I see the media are focused on a really important "confusing" issue...

    Is a pasty enough to keep a pub open?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-54523232

    Except as they admit right at the bottom of the article, this is already the law in terms of pubs being able to give 16/17 years a drink. But no toooooooooo confusing.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066
    Foxy said:

    Brom said:

    Starmer getting pelters on facebook. Deserved. As so many are asking why on earth would you ruin the economy of areas with low amounts of cases when businesses are just about surviving as it is?
    You can't just complain about pubs shutting too early last week and then this week say they all need to shut full stop. Guy is all over the place.

    I suspect Johnson and Co will bottle it and have such a shutdown in a few weeks. They are always behind the curve. I don't think Johnson is resolute enough to stick it out. Fundamentally he is a coward.
    It won't be for just 2 weeks though and then Starmer will disingenuously claim if we had only followed his suggest it would have only needed to be 2 weeks. Its good politics, but it isn't a solution to the problem.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    MaxPB said:

    So the Tory rebels had the numbers but Labour let country down. Starmer is all talk as usual.
    Are you saying that Captain Hindsight abstained on this vote? That's so out of character. Normally he's so decisive.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,953
    Brom said:

    MaxPB said:

    So the Tory rebels had the numbers but Labour let country down. Starmer is all talk as usual.
    The man has no balls. There is need for a 10pm close, it would be considerably more effective to just shut the few establishments that are taking the piss with zero covid measures.
    Yes precisely. Throughout all this all we are getting is crude blanket measures that affect responsible and irresponsible businesses alike. The Govt tells us that if we follow the rules things will be OK. In pubs up and down the country the rules are followed religiously. In others they aren't.

    The solution. Don't just shut everything down as if every pub is the same. Clamp down on the effing pubs that are taking the p*ss. And give local authorities the resources and powers to do so. Local authorities can shut places down for environmental health breaches. Or for breaches of their licencing conditions. So do the same with Covid. In fact, if we had been doing this back in June/July then offenders could have even been given the chance to put their houses in order. Businesses deserve the right to operate normally if they operate within Government approved safety guidelines. Those that don't don't. There will be a few that can't - and govt support can be targeted at those. Overall it is a cheap option.

    It's almost as if throughout this whole debacle the Government have taken the view that writing guidelines into law is the cheap way to produce widespread compliance. It now turns out that the cheap was actually enforce the guidelines. A law that is not enforced will be ignored. Especially when compliance means bankruptcy.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466

    I see the media are focused on a really important "confusing" issue...

    Is a pasty enough to keep a pub open?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-54523232

    Except as they admit right at the bottom of the article, this is already the law in terms of pubs being able to give 16/17 years a drink. But no toooooooooo confusing.

    I said this the other day. It's a pre existing legal term that has long been a licensing term used and understood by restaurants and licensing authorities.

    Using a term with restaurants that restaurants already use and understand in their licensing terms and conditions ... oh how confusing.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,177
    Not sure is Chris Green's resignation was designed for now but it is rather helpful for the PM pitching him in the middle of the lockdown/open up discussion.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,817

    I see the media are focused on a really important "confusing" issue...

    Is a pasty enough to keep a pub open?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-54523232

    Except as they admit right at the bottom of the article, this is already the law in terms of pubs being able to give 16/17 years a drink. But no toooooooooo confusing.

    What a surprise. F*****g morons the lot of them.

    Government need to bypass the MSM completely, get Saatchi back to run a high-profile ad campaign that no-one can miss.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 1,204
    Watch out for the GOP losing the Alaska Senate race too.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,671
    alex_ said:

    Brom said:

    MaxPB said:

    So the Tory rebels had the numbers but Labour let country down. Starmer is all talk as usual.
    The man has no balls. There is need for a 10pm close, it would be considerably more effective to just shut the few establishments that are taking the piss with zero covid measures.
    Yes precisely. Throughout all this all we are getting is crude blanket measures that affect responsible and irresponsible businesses alike. The Govt tells us that if we follow the rules things will be OK. In pubs up and down the country the rules are followed religiously. In others they aren't.

    The solution. Don't just shut everything down as if every pub is the same. Clamp down on the effing pubs that are taking the p*ss. And give local authorities the resources and powers to do so. Local authorities can shut places down for environmental health breaches. Or for breaches of their licencing conditions. So do the same with Covid. In fact, if we had been doing this back in June/July then offenders could have even been given the chance to put their houses in order. Businesses deserve the right to operate normally if they operate within Government approved safety guidelines. Those that don't don't. There will be a few that can't - and govt support can be targeted at those. Overall it is a cheap option.

    It's almost as if throughout this whole debacle the Government have taken the view that writing guidelines into law is the cheap way to produce widespread compliance. It now turns out that the cheap was actually enforce the guidelines. A law that is not enforced will be ignored. Especially when compliance means bankruptcy.
    I agree, removing the license of establishments that are not following the rules is obligatory. Shutting down responsible landladies such as @Cyclefree jr is helping no one.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 12,063
    Sandpit said:

    I see the media are focused on a really important "confusing" issue...

    Is a pasty enough to keep a pub open?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-54523232

    Except as they admit right at the bottom of the article, this is already the law in terms of pubs being able to give 16/17 years a drink. But no toooooooooo confusing.

    What a surprise. F*****g morons the lot of them.

    Government need to bypass the MSM completely, get Saatchi back to run a high-profile ad campaign that no-one can miss.
    COVID isn't working?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,671
    Interesting piece on C4 news, apparently hard times in the Cocaine industry from production to distribution.

    The virus doing what the War on Drugs could not...
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,032
    What time do results start coming in on the 3/11?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 7,446
    Evening again all :)

    Have to say I'm impressed by the 10 LDs voting against the 10pm pub closing rule which has been shown (it seems) to be both economically counter-productive (apart from for the off-licences and supermarkets) and to have some issues in terms of public health.

    I find myself somewhat bemused by current events - economies can be rebuilt, mental health issues can be resolved (if found and appropriate help provided) but death is about as final as it gets. We should be trying to stop people dying (and from what I can gather it's not a pleasant way to leave this life) and if that means temporary economic dislocation, that can be mitigated.

    I understand the mental health argument and welcome the fact it has attained some profile and some resonance in all this and while I suspect it's insufficient, there is help to be had. The notion of suffering in silence is still endemic, I fear, however, so all we can do is to support each other and point those who really need help in the right direction.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,021

    I see the media are focused on a really important "confusing" issue...

    Is a pasty enough to keep a pub open?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/newsbeat-54523232

    Except as they admit right at the bottom of the article, this is already the law in terms of pubs being able to give 16/17 years a drink. But no toooooooooo confusing.

    It's a meme at this point, used without any thought of the damage done to the public health message.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 12,063
    Foxy said:

    Interesting piece on C4 news, apparently hard times in the Cocaine industry from production to distribution.

    The virus doing what the War on Drugs could not...

    Silver lining!

    I missed the debate about drug policy the other day. I'm anti liberalisation. My middle class mates who like to partake in a middle class way (and not think about all the associated crime and destitution) are the most fervent liberalisers.

    Never seen the attraction. Booze, OTOH....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,671
    nichomar said:

    What time do results start coming in on the 3/11?

    I think polls close early, so I recall not too far different to a UK GE night, though obviously later for the West Coast. I remember East Coast results out while West Coast polls were still open.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,323
    edited October 13
    nichomar said:

    What time do results start coming in on the 3/11?

    Kentucky and Indiana start reporting first, at about 11pm our time. The reason is that polls close in those states at 6pm local time.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 2,953
    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:

    Brom said:

    MaxPB said:

    So the Tory rebels had the numbers but Labour let country down. Starmer is all talk as usual.
    The man has no balls. There is need for a 10pm close, it would be considerably more effective to just shut the few establishments that are taking the piss with zero covid measures.
    Yes precisely. Throughout all this all we are getting is crude blanket measures that affect responsible and irresponsible businesses alike. The Govt tells us that if we follow the rules things will be OK. In pubs up and down the country the rules are followed religiously. In others they aren't.

    The solution. Don't just shut everything down as if every pub is the same. Clamp down on the effing pubs that are taking the p*ss. And give local authorities the resources and powers to do so. Local authorities can shut places down for environmental health breaches. Or for breaches of their licencing conditions. So do the same with Covid. In fact, if we had been doing this back in June/July then offenders could have even been given the chance to put their houses in order. Businesses deserve the right to operate normally if they operate within Government approved safety guidelines. Those that don't don't. There will be a few that can't - and govt support can be targeted at those. Overall it is a cheap option.

    It's almost as if throughout this whole debacle the Government have taken the view that writing guidelines into law is the cheap way to produce widespread compliance. It now turns out that the cheap was actually enforce the guidelines. A law that is not enforced will be ignored. Especially when compliance means bankruptcy.
    I agree, removing the license of establishments that are not following the rules is obligatory. Shutting down responsible landladies such as @Cyclefree jr is helping no one.
    To be honest, i also think it doesn't help that since the start there has been no attempt to distinguish between minor (and usually likely inconsequential) breaches of regulations and serious ones that are highly likely to lead to superspreader events if they involve large numbers of people. We were never operating a zero Covid strategy a la New Zealand, so why were regulations/guidance communicated as if we were. Accept that some spreading will happen, but if most people follow the guidelines most of the time then overall things will OK. And where people don't follow the letter of the regulations, as long as they obey the spirit of the regulations then things will be OK.

    There has been too much debating about the consequences of minor "breaches" and not enough focus on major ones. All are treated as equal (dare i say it, ducking, that a bit more common sense and they wouldn't have had the same trouble over Cummings. Because frankly, Cummings didn't put anyone at risk. On any material level. But because the Government didn't allow any leeway for common sense in the "simple" message they were communicating, and because there has never been much effort to distinguish between high risk and theoretical risk activities his defence didn't work (even without the eye test nonsense).

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,817
    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting piece on C4 news, apparently hard times in the Cocaine industry from production to distribution.

    The virus doing what the War on Drugs could not...

    Silver lining!

    I missed the debate about drug policy the other day. I'm anti liberalisation. My middle class mates who like to partake in a middle class way (and not think about all the associated crime and destitution) are the most fervent liberalisers.

    Never seen the attraction. Booze, OTOH....
    Drug policy needs to be either one way or the other, you either ban drugs outright and hand stiff sentences for minor offences - or you legalise them, produced by pharma companies, taxed and sold in shops. You have to be either Colorado or Bangkok, the middle way just doesn't work.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066
    I see Spitting Image have made full episodes available on the YouTube for those not based in the UK...even my elderly parents now know how to get past this terribly tricky restriction!
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 1,483
    As we have many ardent lockdown enthusiasts on here a question

    How much should we spend to save a covid death?

    £100,000 per death
    £1,000,000 per death
    £10,000,000 per death
    £100,000,000

    Where do you personally draw the line.
    Given we had a forecast of 250,000 fatalities if we did nothing and we have had 50,000 or so anyway

    On what we have spent so far around £210,000,000,000 that is already more than 1,000,000 per life saved

    source of 210 billion figure
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/08/uks-public-spending-watchdog-estimates-210bn-coronavirus-bill
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,817
    edited October 13

    I see Spitting Image have made full episodes available on the YouTube for those not based in the UK...even my elderly parents now know how to get past this terribly tricky restriction!

    Oh, didn't realise it was geo-blocked. I got half way through the first one, totally dire with voices not even close and jokes that just didn't land.

    Bill Burr hosting SNL last weekend, on the other hand...
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    edited October 13
    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting piece on C4 news, apparently hard times in the Cocaine industry from production to distribution.

    The virus doing what the War on Drugs could not...

    Silver lining!

    I missed the debate about drug policy the other day. I'm anti liberalisation. My middle class mates who like to partake in a middle class way (and not think about all the associated crime and destitution) are the most fervent liberalisers.

    Never seen the attraction. Booze, OTOH....
    I don't see the point in partaking it. Booze and caffeine are my only drugs of choice.

    But prohibition has failed. Education is working on tobacco.

    We should deal with illicit drugs like tobacco. Tax and education, but free will. If people want to take cocaine better they buy it from a supermarket tobacco counter, or Boots, than from a criminal gang.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,671
    Pagan2 said:

    As we have many ardent lockdown enthusiasts on here a question...

    Do we? We seem to have far fewer than represented in national polling.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 1,010
    Foxy said:

    nichomar said:

    What time do results start coming in on the 3/11?

    I think polls close early, so I recall not too far different to a UK GE night, though obviously later for the West Coast. I remember East Coast results out while West Coast polls were still open.

    And is there a big UK-style polls-have-closed-exit-poll-forecast that you can see, then go to bed, wake up and see that that was basically what happened anyway?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466

    I see Spitting Image have made full episodes available on the YouTube for those not based in the UK...even my elderly parents now know how to get past this terribly tricky restriction!

    Have they figured out how to make any jokes that are funny yet?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 6,964
    Pagan2 said:

    As we have many ardent lockdown enthusiasts on here a question

    How much should we spend to save a covid death?

    £100,000 per death
    £1,000,000 per death
    £10,000,000 per death
    £100,000,000

    Where do you personally draw the line.
    Given we had a forecast of 250,000 fatalities if we did nothing and we have had 50,000 or so anyway

    On what we have spent so far around £210,000,000,000 that is already more than 1,000,000 per life saved

    source of 210 billion figure
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/08/uks-public-spending-watchdog-estimates-210bn-coronavirus-bill

    You are making the brave assumption that you survive.

    If it's me we are talking about I am quite content to spend the £210,000,000,000 on me alone. It's only (borrowed) money after all.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,502
    Ed Davey has missed the chance to differentiate from Labour.

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,671

    I see Spitting Image have made full episodes available on the YouTube for those not based in the UK...even my elderly parents now know how to get past this terribly tricky restriction!

    Have they figured out how to make any jokes that are funny yet?
    I recall the original series being very patchy too. Most sketch shows are.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    Sandpit said:

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting piece on C4 news, apparently hard times in the Cocaine industry from production to distribution.

    The virus doing what the War on Drugs could not...

    Silver lining!

    I missed the debate about drug policy the other day. I'm anti liberalisation. My middle class mates who like to partake in a middle class way (and not think about all the associated crime and destitution) are the most fervent liberalisers.

    Never seen the attraction. Booze, OTOH....
    Drug policy needs to be either one way or the other, you either ban drugs outright and hand stiff sentences for minor offences - or you legalise them, produced by pharma companies, taxed and sold in shops. You have to be either Colorado or Bangkok, the middle way just doesn't work.
    Precisely. And the country isn't willing to go down the Bangkok route. So there's only one realistic option.

    Whichever party finally grasps it, will find a healthy boost to the Exchequer from doing so. But don't go down the route of decriminalisation, the entire supply chain from crop to consumer must be legal.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 7,090
    Pagan2 said:

    As we have many ardent lockdown enthusiasts on here a question

    How much should we spend to save a covid death?

    £100,000 per death
    £1,000,000 per death
    £10,000,000 per death
    £100,000,000

    Where do you personally draw the line.
    Given we had a forecast of 250,000 fatalities if we did nothing and we have had 50,000 or so anyway

    On what we have spent so far around £210,000,000,000 that is already more than 1,000,000 per life saved

    source of 210 billion figure
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/08/uks-public-spending-watchdog-estimates-210bn-coronavirus-bill

    Your question is framed incorrectly. We are not spending £210bn out of choice, most of it is the cost of the virus, regardless of what actions governments would have taken. People would have travelled less, spent less, businesses gone bust, employees made redundant regardless.

    It is not even clear that a loose lockdown is at all cheaper than a strict lockdown. Governments making the decisions dont know the relationship between fatalities, spending and lockdown rules in advance so are flying blind.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,901
    Andy_JS said:

    nichomar said:

    What time do results start coming in on the 3/11?

    Kentucky and Indiana start reporting first, at about 11pm our time. The reason is that polls close in those states at 6pm local time.
    I wonder how quickly Indiana will be called for Trump this time round. Last time it was fast. I expect KY to be instacalled no matter how badly he's doing.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,671

    Foxy said:

    nichomar said:

    What time do results start coming in on the 3/11?

    I think polls close early, so I recall not too far different to a UK GE night, though obviously later for the West Coast. I remember East Coast results out while West Coast polls were still open.

    And is there a big UK-style polls-have-closed-exit-poll-forecast that you can see, then go to bed, wake up and see that that was basically what happened anyway?
    Ooh, the best bit is the in play betting. PB is way ahead of the curve and I did a reverse ferret very successfully in 2016, though @rcs1000 famously called it early on for Hillary. I blame it on too much Radiohead.

    🙂
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,032

    Foxy said:

    nichomar said:

    What time do results start coming in on the 3/11?

    I think polls close early, so I recall not too far different to a UK GE night, though obviously later for the West Coast. I remember East Coast results out while West Coast polls were still open.

    And is there a big UK-style polls-have-closed-exit-poll-forecast that you can see, then go to bed, wake up and see that that was basically what happened anyway?
    Given the time zones there can’t be a national exit poll.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,817

    Foxy said:

    nichomar said:

    What time do results start coming in on the 3/11?

    I think polls close early, so I recall not too far different to a UK GE night, though obviously later for the West Coast. I remember East Coast results out while West Coast polls were still open.

    And is there a big UK-style polls-have-closed-exit-poll-forecast that you can see, then go to bed, wake up and see that that was basically what happened anyway?
    Nope. It's all organised by State, the results come in piecemeal and the media companies fight each other to 'call' each state and the total EC votes based purely on partial results. The full results take several weeks to be certified, once absentee and postal votes are counted. It's very unlikely this year, that there will be a result on the night, given the apparent partisan nature of voting methods.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    nichomar said:

    What time do results start coming in on the 3/11?

    I think polls close early, so I recall not too far different to a UK GE night, though obviously later for the West Coast. I remember East Coast results out while West Coast polls were still open.

    And is there a big UK-style polls-have-closed-exit-poll-forecast that you can see, then go to bed, wake up and see that that was basically what happened anyway?
    Nope. It's all organised by State, the results come in piecemeal and the media companies fight each other to 'call' each state and the total EC votes based purely on partial results. The full results take several weeks to be certified, once absentee and postal votes are counted. It's very unlikely this year, that there will be a result on the night, given the apparent partisan nature of voting methods.
    Unless it's a Biden blowout.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 7,090
    stodge said:

    FPT..
    Evening all :)

    Just three weeks until Election Day in the US and four days before polling in New Zealand so I'll start there.

    The latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll has Labour on 47%, National on 32%, ACT on 8% and the Greens on 6%.

    In terms of seats, Labour would win 60, National 41, ACT 11 and Greens 8 so Labour can effectively govern alone but a continuation of the coalition with the Greens would have a comfortable majority.

    Back to America and Trafalgar (everyone's favourite pollster) has Biden up just two in Pennsylvania. Other polls show Biden enjoying small but far from solid leads in Florida and North Carolina but we then have the WPA Intelligence poll for the Las Vegas Review Journal showing Biden leading Trump 44-42.

    Adding some important detail, 3% are supporting Jorgensen, 1% are backing Don Blankenship, the IAPN candidate leaving 4% on "None of the Above" and 6% Undecided.

    I've moved Nevada back to TCTC as with a large section of the Hispanic vote still to decide, it's very difficult to assume Biden has this in the bag. OTOH, I've moved North Carolina into the Blue camp - Trump hasn't led in a poll in the state for nearly a month and while the lead is well within Margin of Error, I think Biden will nick this state so at the moment I'm on 299-161 with 78 TCTC.

    One state still very much in the Red camp is Missouri which Trump won by 18.5 points in 2016. The latest poll has Trump ahead 52-43 so a swing of 4.25% to Biden since 2016. Back in 2008, Obama got to within 4,000 votes of winning the state but that was then and this is now (as someone once said).

    I am pleased to be on 4% considering I have never campaigned in the US, or at all even. Shows how bad their politicians are.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066

    I see Spitting Image have made full episodes available on the YouTube for those not based in the UK...even my elderly parents now know how to get past this terribly tricky restriction!

    Have they figured out how to make any jokes that are funny yet?
    I watched episode 2, the answer is basically no.

    I can't imagine if somebody has paid for Britbox just for this they will be sticking around for very long.

    The only way it makes a second season is if the suits want to save face and don't want to admit its shit.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 18,671
    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    nichomar said:

    What time do results start coming in on the 3/11?

    Kentucky and Indiana start reporting first, at about 11pm our time. The reason is that polls close in those states at 6pm local time.
    I wonder how quickly Indiana will be called for Trump this time round. Last time it was fast. I expect KY to be instacalled no matter how badly he's doing.
    Yes, the thing to watch is the swing. It may be hard to judge though with all the postal voting etc.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,502
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    nichomar said:

    What time do results start coming in on the 3/11?

    I think polls close early, so I recall not too far different to a UK GE night, though obviously later for the West Coast. I remember East Coast results out while West Coast polls were still open.

    And is there a big UK-style polls-have-closed-exit-poll-forecast that you can see, then go to bed, wake up and see that that was basically what happened anyway?
    Nope. It's all organised by State, the results come in piecemeal and the media companies fight each other to 'call' each state and the total EC votes based purely on partial results. The full results take several weeks to be certified, once absentee and postal votes are counted. It's very unlikely this year, that there will be a result on the night, given the apparent partisan nature of voting methods.
    Last time we had a very good sense that Trump was going to do it based on the initial counts from some of the Florida precincts.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 1,890

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting piece on C4 news, apparently hard times in the Cocaine industry from production to distribution.

    The virus doing what the War on Drugs could not...

    Silver lining!

    I missed the debate about drug policy the other day. I'm anti liberalisation. My middle class mates who like to partake in a middle class way (and not think about all the associated crime and destitution) are the most fervent liberalisers.

    Never seen the attraction. Booze, OTOH....
    I don't see the point in partaking it. Booze and caffeine are my only drugs of choice.

    But prohibition has failed. Education is working on tobacco.

    We should deal with illicit drugs like tobacco. Tax and education, but free will. If people want to take cocaine better they buy it from a supermarket tobacco counter, or Boots, than from a criminal gang.
    That's been my view.

    You would think it might encourage some pharmaceutical companies to see if they could develop a drug that gave a high, wasn't chemically addictive and had a high LD50:ED ratio.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,901

    Foxy said:

    nichomar said:

    What time do results start coming in on the 3/11?

    I think polls close early, so I recall not too far different to a UK GE night, though obviously later for the West Coast. I remember East Coast results out while West Coast polls were still open.

    And is there a big UK-style polls-have-closed-exit-poll-forecast that you can see, then go to bed, wake up and see that that was basically what happened anyway?
    Not this time. We should know Florida, North Carolina and Arizona though. The rust belt will take a while.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066
    Sandpit said:

    I see Spitting Image have made full episodes available on the YouTube for those not based in the UK...even my elderly parents now know how to get past this terribly tricky restriction!

    Oh, didn't realise it was geo-blocked. I got half way through the first one, totally dire with voices not even close and jokes that just didn't land.

    Bill Burr hosting SNL last weekend, on the other hand...
    The voices are terrible. They miss the mark by such a large extent that alone is off putting...and it isn't as if there aren't a whole host of impressionists in the UK who are top draw on mimicing a wide range of people.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 1,483

    Pagan2 said:

    As we have many ardent lockdown enthusiasts on here a question

    How much should we spend to save a covid death?

    £100,000 per death
    £1,000,000 per death
    £10,000,000 per death
    £100,000,000

    Where do you personally draw the line.
    Given we had a forecast of 250,000 fatalities if we did nothing and we have had 50,000 or so anyway

    On what we have spent so far around £210,000,000,000 that is already more than 1,000,000 per life saved

    source of 210 billion figure
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/08/uks-public-spending-watchdog-estimates-210bn-coronavirus-bill

    You are making the brave assumption that you survive.

    If it's me we are talking about I am quite content to spend the £210,000,000,000 on me alone. It's only (borrowed) money after all.
    On the contrary I am at large risk having chemical induced respiratory problems and allergic asthma on top.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066

    twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1316093081440194560

    Its air bridges all over again, every week the regions on the lists change...total mess.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 6,964
    edited October 13
    Next week I was due to fly to Northern Ireland for work. I declined, but my business partner is going anyway. He's going to be spending Christmas in Belfast isn't he?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 1,890
    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    nichomar said:

    What time do results start coming in on the 3/11?

    Kentucky and Indiana start reporting first, at about 11pm our time. The reason is that polls close in those states at 6pm local time.
    I wonder how quickly Indiana will be called for Trump this time round. Last time it was fast. I expect KY to be instacalled no matter how badly he's doing.
    538 are projecting an 11.3% lead for Trump in Indiana. That would be called pretty quickly I would think.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    nichomar said:

    What time do results start coming in on the 3/11?

    I think polls close early, so I recall not too far different to a UK GE night, though obviously later for the West Coast. I remember East Coast results out while West Coast polls were still open.

    And is there a big UK-style polls-have-closed-exit-poll-forecast that you can see, then go to bed, wake up and see that that was basically what happened anyway?
    Ooh, the best bit is the in play betting. PB is way ahead of the curve and I did a reverse ferret very successfully in 2016, though @rcs1000 famously called it early on for Hillary. I blame it on too much Radiohead.

    🙂
    In fairness to RCS he did his reverse ferret pretty soon after and that combined with some shrewd observations by other PBers enabled me to reverse my own ferret and finish with a modest profit. PB is certainly the place to be on big election nites.
  • twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1316093081440194560

    Its air bridges all over again, every week the regions on the lists change...total mess.
    Yup.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 7,090

    Ed Davey has missed the chance to differentiate from Labour.

    He is backing a winning case.

    Boris cant do it this week or it looks like surrender. And he cant call it a circuit breaker. So middle of next week he will announce something like a "mini lockdown" which is essentially the SAGE/Starmer circuit breaker with a new name.
  • Next week I was due to fly to Northern Ireland for work. i declined, but my business partner is going anyway. He's going to be spending Christmas in Belfast isn't he?
    I'm sure that's against the Geneva convention.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 7,446

    Ed Davey has missed the chance to differentiate from Labour.

    What should he have done? Backed Johnson and Sunak to the hilt?

    Most of the LD MPs voted against the Government which is more than most of the Labour party did.

    I'd support a "circuit breaker" if we knew it would do anything other than do what this country does so well and kick the can down the road. As soon as everything opens up after two weeks, back comes the virus.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 6,964
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    As we have many ardent lockdown enthusiasts on here a question

    How much should we spend to save a covid death?

    £100,000 per death
    £1,000,000 per death
    £10,000,000 per death
    £100,000,000

    Where do you personally draw the line.
    Given we had a forecast of 250,000 fatalities if we did nothing and we have had 50,000 or so anyway

    On what we have spent so far around £210,000,000,000 that is already more than 1,000,000 per life saved

    source of 210 billion figure
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/08/uks-public-spending-watchdog-estimates-210bn-coronavirus-bill

    You are making the brave assumption that you survive.

    If it's me we are talking about I am quite content to spend the £210,000,000,000 on me alone. It's only (borrowed) money after all.
    On the contrary I am at large risk having chemical induced respiratory problems and allergic asthma on top.
    Well I for one am happy to spend whatever it takes to keep you safe!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,817

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    nichomar said:

    What time do results start coming in on the 3/11?

    I think polls close early, so I recall not too far different to a UK GE night, though obviously later for the West Coast. I remember East Coast results out while West Coast polls were still open.

    And is there a big UK-style polls-have-closed-exit-poll-forecast that you can see, then go to bed, wake up and see that that was basically what happened anyway?
    Ooh, the best bit is the in play betting. PB is way ahead of the curve and I did a reverse ferret very successfully in 2016, though @rcs1000 famously called it early on for Hillary. I blame it on too much Radiohead.

    🙂
    In fairness to RCS he did his reverse ferret pretty soon after and that combined with some shrewd observations by other PBers enabled me to reverse my own ferret and finish with a modest profit. PB is certainly the place to be on big election nites.
    That's very true. Who can forget @Andy_JS' spreadsheet on the EU referendum night. If ever I meet him in person, I'll definitely be buying the beers.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,323
    edited October 13
    Even if Biden wins a landslide Trump may poll slightly more actual votes than 2016, which might be a value bet if any firms were offering it. Latest YouGov forecast puts him on 44.6% which is only sightly down on the 46.1% he polled last time, and turnout could be up appreciably, as could the total electorate.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066

    Ed Davey has missed the chance to differentiate from Labour.

    He is backing a winning case.

    Boris cant do it this week or it looks like surrender. And he cant call it a circuit breaker. So middle of next week he will announce something like a "mini lockdown" which is essentially the SAGE/Starmer circuit breaker with a new name.
    They will just put more and more regions in Tier 3, which is effectively the same thing.

    I am quite prepared come mid November everywhere but Devon and Cornwall in Tier 3.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 17,100
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Apparently Trippier got ejected from England squad as he faces bettting charges.....how hard can it be not to get involved in any betting on football. If you like the thrill of gambling and a multimillionaire footballer, there are loads of other outlets for this.

    Why don't the footballers bet on cricket, or horses? Or just go to the goddam casino like every other rich kid.
    Back in the day, I am fairly certain a number played online poker in my games, as there were a number of fish that appeared to keep the sort of hours you would expect a footballer to keep i.e. starting early afternoons sessions, while never playing Friday nights or Saturdays.

    I have a friend who was in the big live games in London and now owns a number of properties thank in part to footballer money. Bendtner springs to mind as one massive donator.
    That makes sense. Thankfully I managed to stay the hell away from online poker when it got big in the mid 2000s, I was savvy enough to know back then that it was both highly addictive and deceptive as to who was actually playing against you.
    On the contrary, mid 2000s were the best time for online poker ! I think the highlight of my career was being asked if I was Tony G whilst I was playing on his account at EPT Dublin.
    I only ever played low stakes but the online poker boom was ridiculous. Just an endless stream of free money.

    I once accidentally entered a 300 odd person Pot Limit Omaha High only tournament thinking it was High/Low

    I had never played High Only in my life. I folded the first hand as a very clear "one person has a the nut low one person has the nut high" situation progressed and then the person who had high only took the whole pot.

    I couldn't understand what the f just happened. Then I reread the title of the tournament and freaked out a bit. Had zero clue how to play high only.

    I made the final table. Because simply having some knowledge of how PL works and pot management and position was enough.

    I went out to nut flush vs 4 of a kind. Years later still raging about my stupidity as it was painfully obvious he had at least the full house. Haunts me.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466

    Mortimer said:

    Foxy said:

    Interesting piece on C4 news, apparently hard times in the Cocaine industry from production to distribution.

    The virus doing what the War on Drugs could not...

    Silver lining!

    I missed the debate about drug policy the other day. I'm anti liberalisation. My middle class mates who like to partake in a middle class way (and not think about all the associated crime and destitution) are the most fervent liberalisers.

    Never seen the attraction. Booze, OTOH....
    I don't see the point in partaking it. Booze and caffeine are my only drugs of choice.

    But prohibition has failed. Education is working on tobacco.

    We should deal with illicit drugs like tobacco. Tax and education, but free will. If people want to take cocaine better they buy it from a supermarket tobacco counter, or Boots, than from a criminal gang.
    That's been my view.

    You would think it might encourage some pharmaceutical companies to see if they could develop a drug that gave a high, wasn't chemically addictive and had a high LD50:ED ratio.
    I think let companies create a range of goods so long as it clearly labelled what it is.

    Eg with alcohol you can range in strength from non or low alcohol beers, to light beers, strong export beers, weak wines, strong wines, liquors, spirits all the way to overproof spirits etc. But anyone who buys a bottle of any of them it's clearly labelled what strength it is etc.

    With illegal drugs there's no such clear regulation or education.
  • twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/1316093081440194560

    Its air bridges all over again, every week the regions on the lists change...total mess.
    Yup.
    Nope. Air bridge was "can I fly" and the options were "yes" and "no". Here we have a three tier plan with 5 tiers. You think places being upgraded from L2 to L3 is funny? Wait until they go to Whitty's "Extremely High Risk" L4 - that's when they'll send Jenrick on to explain it.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,323
    stodge said:

    Ed Davey has missed the chance to differentiate from Labour.

    What should he have done? Backed Johnson and Sunak to the hilt?

    Most of the LD MPs voted against the Government which is more than most of the Labour party did.

    I'd support a "circuit breaker" if we knew it would do anything other than do what this country does so well and kick the can down the road. As soon as everything opens up after two weeks, back comes the virus.
    Most LD MPs voted against the 10pm closing time tonight.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 34,502
    stodge said:

    Ed Davey has missed the chance to differentiate from Labour.

    What should he have done? Backed Johnson and Sunak to the hilt?

    Most of the LD MPs voted against the Government which is more than most of the Labour party did.

    I'd support a "circuit breaker" if we knew it would do anything other than do what this country does so well and kick the can down the road. As soon as everything opens up after two weeks, back comes the virus.
    That's exactly what he could have said. He could have accused Starmer of opportunism and said that a circuit breaker only makes sense if we can come out of it with a better system in place, and attacked the government for not being able to do this.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 6,964

    Ed Davey has missed the chance to differentiate from Labour.

    He is backing a winning case.

    Boris cant do it this week or it looks like surrender. And he cant call it a circuit breaker. So middle of next week he will announce something like a "mini lockdown" which is essentially the SAGE/Starmer circuit breaker with a new name.
    They will just put more and more regions in Tier 3, which is effectively the same thing.

    I am quite prepared come mid November everywhere but Devon and Cornwall in Tier 3.
    So no national lockdown!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066

    twitter.com/inzyrashid/status/1316084724536877059

    And Starmer is suggesting we do this across the country....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066

    Ed Davey has missed the chance to differentiate from Labour.

    He is backing a winning case.

    Boris cant do it this week or it looks like surrender. And he cant call it a circuit breaker. So middle of next week he will announce something like a "mini lockdown" which is essentially the SAGE/Starmer circuit breaker with a new name.
    They will just put more and more regions in Tier 3, which is effectively the same thing.

    I am quite prepared come mid November everywhere but Devon and Cornwall in Tier 3.
    So no national lockdown!
    Yeap...but it will be for months, not 2 weeks.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 7,090

    Ed Davey has missed the chance to differentiate from Labour.

    He is backing a winning case.

    Boris cant do it this week or it looks like surrender. And he cant call it a circuit breaker. So middle of next week he will announce something like a "mini lockdown" which is essentially the SAGE/Starmer circuit breaker with a new name.
    They will just put more and more regions in Tier 3, which is effectively the same thing.

    I am quite prepared come mid November everywhere but Devon and Cornwall in Tier 3.
    I think it takes away from the everyone in it together mindset that is important during a national crisis. Also just going into tier 3 probably means staying there for the winter, whereas with a few circuit breakers we might be able to keep most of the country in tier 1 most weeks.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,733

    I see Spitting Image have made full episodes available on the YouTube for those not based in the UK...even my elderly parents now know how to get past this terribly tricky restriction!

    Have they figured out how to make any jokes that are funny yet?
    Watching SNL skits isn’t going to help them any.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 10,366

    Pulpstar said:

    Andy_JS said:

    nichomar said:

    What time do results start coming in on the 3/11?

    Kentucky and Indiana start reporting first, at about 11pm our time. The reason is that polls close in those states at 6pm local time.
    I wonder how quickly Indiana will be called for Trump this time round. Last time it was fast. I expect KY to be instacalled no matter how badly he's doing.
    538 are projecting an 11.3% lead for Trump in Indiana. That would be called pretty quickly I would think.
    Though Obama did win there in 2008.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 7,090
    Probably wouldn't focus on the 15 casinos if trying to garner sympathy!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 15,140
    Pretty unhelpful from Pidcock

    Laura Pidcock
    @LauraPidcock
    ·
    32m
    A ‘circuit break’ must include school closures (or back to lockdown provision). Anything less than that that will be inadequate to slow the spread of the virus. None of us want to be here. We are here because we have been relentlessly failed by government.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 28,733

    I see Spitting Image have made full episodes available on the YouTube for those not based in the UK...even my elderly parents now know how to get past this terribly tricky restriction!

    Have they figured out how to make any jokes that are funny yet?
    I watched episode 2, the answer is basically no.

    I can't imagine if somebody has paid for Britbox just for this they will be sticking around for very long.

    The only way it makes a second season is if the suits want to save face and don't want to admit its shit.
    We have Geraldine James down the seafront in a couple of weeks filming something or other for Britbox.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 1,483

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    As we have many ardent lockdown enthusiasts on here a question

    How much should we spend to save a covid death?

    £100,000 per death
    £1,000,000 per death
    £10,000,000 per death
    £100,000,000

    Where do you personally draw the line.
    Given we had a forecast of 250,000 fatalities if we did nothing and we have had 50,000 or so anyway

    On what we have spent so far around £210,000,000,000 that is already more than 1,000,000 per life saved

    source of 210 billion figure
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/08/uks-public-spending-watchdog-estimates-210bn-coronavirus-bill

    You are making the brave assumption that you survive.

    If it's me we are talking about I am quite content to spend the £210,000,000,000 on me alone. It's only (borrowed) money after all.
    On the contrary I am at large risk having chemical induced respiratory problems and allergic asthma on top.
    Well I for one am happy to spend whatever it takes to keep you safe!
    Then I hope you never get near power. The cost of bankrupting future generations to keep one person safe is not a legacy I would wish thanks all the same
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,304
    In other "you couldn't make it up" news, Specsavers are legitimately looking for staff in their Barnard Castle branch...



    Back when the Cummings story first broke I thought it'd be forgotten in a week. I was wrong. Now I'm almost certain it will still be haunting the Tories on doorsteps in 2024.

    It's certainly the moment they lost all legitimacy on another lockdown. What good will a "circuit breaker" do if nobody follows the rules anyway?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066

    Ed Davey has missed the chance to differentiate from Labour.

    He is backing a winning case.

    Boris cant do it this week or it looks like surrender. And he cant call it a circuit breaker. So middle of next week he will announce something like a "mini lockdown" which is essentially the SAGE/Starmer circuit breaker with a new name.
    They will just put more and more regions in Tier 3, which is effectively the same thing.

    I am quite prepared come mid November everywhere but Devon and Cornwall in Tier 3.
    I think it takes away from the everyone in it together mindset that is important during a national crisis. Also just going into tier 3 probably means staying there for the winter, whereas with a few circuit breakers we might be able to keep most of the country in tier 1 most weeks.
    I am very much of the opinion of a consistent countrywide set of restrictions that last the whole winter. Circuit breakers will either be 2 weeks every month or more likely months on end again, it won't just be for a single period over half term.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 3,543

    Ed Davey has missed the chance to differentiate from Labour.

    He is backing a winning case.

    Boris cant do it this week or it looks like surrender. And he cant call it a circuit breaker. So middle of next week he will announce something like a "mini lockdown" which is essentially the SAGE/Starmer circuit breaker with a new name.
    They will just put more and more regions in Tier 3, which is effectively the same thing.

    I am quite prepared come mid November everywhere but Devon and Cornwall in Tier 3.
    Planning to spend the first week of November in Cornwall so fingers crossed.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 14,742

    I see Spitting Image have made full episodes available on the YouTube for those not based in the UK...even my elderly parents now know how to get past this terribly tricky restriction!

    Have they figured out how to make any jokes that are funny yet?
    Trump and "Vlad" Putin and our very own "Muscles" in the sauna was quite funny imo.
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