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The other big US election three weeks today – the fight to control the Senate – politicalbetting.com

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  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,837
    edited October 2020
    CatMan said:

    geoffw said:

    Breaking News.

    Nellie The Elephant has tested positive for Covid-19.

    When asked where she got it from, she replied with 'Trump, Trump, Trump.'




    Who wouldn't want to pay £4 to read Rod Liddle's views on the Oscars being racist?
    I subscribed to the Speccy for a few months in 2017. It was useful in that it gave me an insight into the thinking and attitudes of that side of politics. A few months - about a dozen or so issues - was more than sufficient to achieve this. It was something of a relief to stop but I don't regret it.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    Covid-19: Do many people have pre-existing immunity?

    https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563


    Really interesting article.

  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 8,629
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    As we have many ardent lockdown enthusiasts on here a question

    How much should we spend to save a covid death?

    £100,000 per death
    £1,000,000 per death
    £10,000,000 per death
    £100,000,000

    Where do you personally draw the line.
    Given we had a forecast of 250,000 fatalities if we did nothing and we have had 50,000 or so anyway

    On what we have spent so far around £210,000,000,000 that is already more than 1,000,000 per life saved

    source of 210 billion figure
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/08/uks-public-spending-watchdog-estimates-210bn-coronavirus-bill

    Excellent question,

    However it is not an easy question to answer, for a number of reasons.

    Most importantly, you need to compare the economic cost of locking down, with the economic cost of not locking down, rather than comparing it to baseline. Because even in a "no lockdown" state, you will still see significant economic impacts - some people will be sick and won't go to work, people will tend to avoid high risk activities anyway, etc. Simply, the virus on its own - even absent a lockdown - will change behaviour, and that will result in costs for the government in terms of lower taxes and higher spending.

    If you look at the economic performance of non-lockdown states in the US (Arizona, Georgia, Florida being the obvious examples), then there isn't a massive difference in unemployment or economic growth compared to similar states with more stringent measures. (It's also hard to disaggregate what's the result of restrictions, and what's the result of other factors such as dense urban populations.) Still - the data is here https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gdp-state - and I think it's reasonable to infer there's a 1-2% economic improvement in "no lockdown" states compared to "full lockdown". (Bear in mind, US GDP growth numbers are annualised, so you need to divide by four.)
    In the UK the question has been answered and the answer is used all the time. NICE determine the cost benefit of a quality years of life and use this for all treatment recommendations and when weighing up new drugs. If I recall correctly the figure is around £20-30K per year of life.

    This system seems to have been thrown out of the window for covid.

    With all due respect, you're missing my point.

    I'm not saying that there isn't a £20-30k/year NICE cost, but that you have to compare the cost of action (financially) with the cost of inaction.
    Yes I agree it has to be measured against the baseline but at least 25% of that money is for example furlough money which wouldnt be spent at all without a lockdown. That still means we have paid at least a quarter of a million for each life spared. I am also sure some of the other 75% is also money that was spent purely because we locked down
  • The MPs who voted against the 10pm hospitality curfew today in the Commons

    Amess, Sir David
    Ahmad Khan, Imran
    Baker, Mr Steve
    Baldwin, Harriett
    Blackman, Bob
    Blunt, Crispin
    Bone, Mr Peter
    Brady, Sir Graham
    Chope, Sir Christopher
    Clifton-Brown, Sir Geoffrey
    Daly, James
    Davies, Philip
    Davis, rh Mr David
    Davison, Dehenna
    Doyle-Price, Jackie
    Drax, Richard
    Fysh, Mr Marcus
    Ghani, Ms Nusrat
    Green, Chris
    Hunt, Tom
    Latham, Mrs Pauline
    Loder, Chris
    Loughton, Tim
    Mangnall, Anthony
    McCartney, Karl
    McVey, rh Esther
    Merriman, Huw
    Morris, Anne Marie
    Redwood, rh John
    Rosindell, Andrew
    Sambrook, Gary
    Seely, Bob
    Smith, Henry
    Swayne, rh Sir Desmond
    Syms, Sir Robert
    Thomas, Derek
    Tracey, Craig
    Vickers, Matt
    Wakeford, Christian
    Walker, Sir Charles
    Watling, Giles
    Wragg, Mr William

    Abbott, rh Ms Diane
    Begum, Apsana
    Bradshaw, rh Mr Ben
    Bryant, Chris
    Butler, Dawn
    Corbyn, rh Jeremy
    Davies, Geraint
    Gwynne, Andrew
    Hill, Mike
    Huq, Dr Rupa
    Jones, rh Mr Kevan
    Lavery, Ian
    Lewell-Buck, Mrs Emma
    Long Bailey, Rebecca
    Mearns, Ian
    Morris, Grahame
    Osborne, Kate
    Ribeiro-Addy, Bell
    Russell-Moyle, Lloyd
    Spellar, rh John
    Stringer, Graham
    Trickett, Jon
    Twigg, Derek

    Carmichael, rh Mr Alistair
    Cooper, Daisy
    Chamberlain, Wendy
    Davey, rh Ed
    Farron, Tim
    Hobhouse, Wera
    Moran, Layla
    Olney, Sarah
    Stone, Jamie
    Wilson, Munira

    Paisley, Ian
    Robinson, Gavin
    Girvan, Paul
    Wilson, rh Sammy
    Donaldson, rh Sir Jeffrey M.
    Lockhart, Carla

    Lucas, Caroline
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,457

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    As we have many ardent lockdown enthusiasts on here a question

    How much should we spend to save a covid death?

    £100,000 per death
    £1,000,000 per death
    £10,000,000 per death
    £100,000,000

    Where do you personally draw the line.
    Given we had a forecast of 250,000 fatalities if we did nothing and we have had 50,000 or so anyway

    On what we have spent so far around £210,000,000,000 that is already more than 1,000,000 per life saved

    source of 210 billion figure
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/08/uks-public-spending-watchdog-estimates-210bn-coronavirus-bill

    You are making the brave assumption that you survive.

    If it's me we are talking about I am quite content to spend the £210,000,000,000 on me alone. It's only (borrowed) money after all.
    On the contrary I am at large risk having chemical induced respiratory problems and allergic asthma on top.
    Well I for one am happy to spend whatever it takes to keep you safe!
    Then I hope you never get near power. The cost of bankrupting future generations to keep one person safe is not a legacy I would wish thanks all the same
    Please yourself, I made what I considered to be a generous offer in good faith.
    I'm going to have to back you up on this one. Given a choice between the permanent annihilation of the self and the expenditure of £210 billion of fiat currency, anyone who earnestly opts for the former is not really thinking straight...
    Death isn't negotiable. It sometimes happens when you cross the road. Lockdowns also kill people directly and indirectly.
    Crossing the road and getting run over isn't infectious. And anyway, the roads were much safer during the March/April lockdown!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Stand down....repeat stand down....no excitement....this doesn't sound like any announcement in next few days...next few months perhaps.

    Once enough cases have been recorded among the programme’s 10,000 volunteers in the UK, scientists will then be able to ‘unblind the trial’ to see whether those infected with Covid-19 had been given a shot of AZD1222 or not. We are just seeing this big rise in the UK and with 10,000 people we should be able to get there, potentially even this year.”...

    This means that the EMA’s vaccine committee has begun evaluating the first batch of data on the candidate. This process of analysis will continue until sufficient data is available and a formal application is made.

    “This does not mean that a conclusion can be reached yet on the vaccine’s safety and effectiveness, as much of the evidence is still to be submitted to the committee,” the watchdog said.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-vaccine-oxford-university-cases-trials-latest-b1016739.html

    The data EMA is reviewing isn’t data from patients. This is a rolling submission so they will be looking at tox and CMC. You don’t unblind patients until you lock the database
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited October 2020

    MaxPB said:

    Good evening all. Have any other European countries deployed a circuit breaker 2-3 week national lockdown in the last few weeks?

    Belgium and the Netherlands look like they might do it.
    Thanks. I've been out most of the day so missed Starmer's conference. Was he asked, and did he answer what happens when the circuit breaker period ends? Yesterday he was quite critical of Boris for having no exit strategy. Did he outline his exit strategy for an circuit breaker lockdown?
    I suspect it's "whatever the scientists say". Not sure if he was asked if the "circuit breaker" includes schools closures.
  • https://twitter.com/johntalsr/status/1315774645061246976

    Absolutely shocking that anyone has to wait 11 hours to vote.

    I once had to wait 5 minutes to vote. That's the longest I've ever had to wait.
  • Is it me, or does it seem a bit odd that the Lib Dems voted against the 10pm curfew and then supported Starmer's proposed lockdown?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    IDK, I'm really not feeling the whitewashing claims here.

    Plans for a new movie about Cleopatra have sparked a controversy before filming has even started.

    The role of the famed ancient Egyptian ruler is to be played by Israeli actress Gal Gadot, best known for her Hollywood depictions of Wonder Woman.

    The announcement has led to a row on social media with some alleging "cultural whitewashing", where white actors portray people of colour.

    Some have said the role should instead go to an Arab or African actress...

    Writer on Africa, James Hall, said he thought the filmmakers should find an African actress, of any race.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-54529836
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Scott_xP said:
    Well people can have multiple reasons for things, but I'd have thought that it had been advised in some capacity, and many people think the government has not gone far enough (even as they oppose things locally) would be reason enough as a tactic.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    The MPs who voted against the 10pm hospitality curfew today in the Commons

    Amess, Sir David
    Ahmad Khan, Imran
    Baker, Mr Steve
    Baldwin, Harriett
    Blackman, Bob
    Blunt, Crispin
    Bone, Mr Peter
    Brady, Sir Graham
    Chope, Sir Christopher
    Clifton-Brown, Sir Geoffrey
    Daly, James
    Davies, Philip
    Davis, rh Mr David
    Davison, Dehenna
    Doyle-Price, Jackie
    Drax, Richard
    Fysh, Mr Marcus
    Ghani, Ms Nusrat
    Green, Chris
    Hunt, Tom
    Latham, Mrs Pauline
    Loder, Chris
    Loughton, Tim
    Mangnall, Anthony
    McCartney, Karl
    McVey, rh Esther
    Merriman, Huw
    Morris, Anne Marie
    Redwood, rh John
    Rosindell, Andrew
    Sambrook, Gary
    Seely, Bob
    Smith, Henry
    Swayne, rh Sir Desmond
    Syms, Sir Robert
    Thomas, Derek
    Tracey, Craig
    Vickers, Matt
    Wakeford, Christian
    Walker, Sir Charles
    Watling, Giles
    Wragg, Mr William

    Abbott, rh Ms Diane
    Begum, Apsana
    Bradshaw, rh Mr Ben
    Bryant, Chris
    Butler, Dawn
    Corbyn, rh Jeremy
    Davies, Geraint
    Gwynne, Andrew
    Hill, Mike
    Huq, Dr Rupa
    Jones, rh Mr Kevan
    Lavery, Ian
    Lewell-Buck, Mrs Emma
    Long Bailey, Rebecca
    Mearns, Ian
    Morris, Grahame
    Osborne, Kate
    Ribeiro-Addy, Bell
    Russell-Moyle, Lloyd
    Spellar, rh John
    Stringer, Graham
    Trickett, Jon
    Twigg, Derek

    Carmichael, rh Mr Alistair
    Cooper, Daisy
    Chamberlain, Wendy
    Davey, rh Ed
    Farron, Tim
    Hobhouse, Wera
    Moran, Layla
    Olney, Sarah
    Stone, Jamie
    Wilson, Munira

    Paisley, Ian
    Robinson, Gavin
    Girvan, Paul
    Wilson, rh Sammy
    Donaldson, rh Sir Jeffrey M.
    Lockhart, Carla

    Lucas, Caroline

    Libertarians and Corbynites.
    Lib Dems and DUP.
    And Caroline Lucas.
    Quite a partehh
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Is it me, or does it seem a bit odd that the Lib Dems voted against the 10pm curfew and then supported Starmer's proposed lockdown?

    I think the argument is that the curfew is actually counterproductive (the damage to pubs is secondary). So it is opposed on health grounds, not economic grounds. Also that it was a measure not supported by scientists, and they are rowing in behind the "do what the scientists say" line.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    edited October 2020
    kle4 said:

    IDK, I'm really not feeling the whitewashing claims here.

    Plans for a new movie about Cleopatra have sparked a controversy before filming has even started.

    The role of the famed ancient Egyptian ruler is to be played by Israeli actress Gal Gadot, best known for her Hollywood depictions of Wonder Woman.

    The announcement has led to a row on social media with some alleging "cultural whitewashing", where white actors portray people of colour.

    Some have said the role should instead go to an Arab or African actress...

    Writer on Africa, James Hall, said he thought the filmmakers should find an African actress, of any race.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-54529836

    Charlize Theron then. Done.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited October 2020
    It's interesting that in Ireland the other day, the Government went publicly against the advice of their medical/scientific committee, when they proposed something akin to a circuit breaker. But in Ireland they effectively have a national government.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    On breaking the transmission chain - I've written about it at length over the last few days and other countries already use similar methods.

    This is what is necessary:

    Local authorities should be given unlimited money/resources to be able to temporarily house up to 1500 (plus or minus 500 depending on population density) people at any time within their borough or local area, this would give national isolation capacity of around 600k. Local authorities would be able to find hotel rooms for up to £120 per day meaning they would be liable to spend a maximum of £240k per day on accomodation costs and a national liability of £72m per day, even taking into account for corruption and local kleptocracy it's around £100m per day.

    At the same time they would also be contacting catering firms in their authority to provide hot meals for all of these people in isolation and delivery of the meals to hotels. Leaving it to local authorities is best because they know their areas and companies who can provide these services. At £50 per day per person in isolation it would be a liability of up to £35m per day for food and distribution.

    Next is ferrying people from their homes to the hotels, this would need to be done with private coaches and drivers in hazmat suits and local officials with full hazmat suits to accompany isolating people to and from the hotels, this could again be sourced locally and schools would probably be able to pitch in here too.

    Finally ensuring people do it. Given them £500 per week to isolate in the hotel.

    What it people refuse - the other option for refuseniks is a non-removable wrist tracking band and £700 per week in isolation with punitive fines and loss of the £700 for spending more than 5 minutes out of your residence. This tracking can be done automatically and fines generated automatically.

    Why is this necessary - at the moment around 4 in 5 people who test positive for the virus don't actually isolate properly. Many people report going to the shops, a few go to the pub and a large number also go to work for fear of being sacked or because the current self isolation incentive is too low and doesn't cover their expenses.

    The system sounds tough, but ultimately it's asking people to give up around two weeks of their life to ensure everyone else around them is safe.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    edited October 2020
    The Telegraph says Johnson will consider a circuit breaker if his tiers strategy doesn't work.

    A decision will be taken next week.

    Perhaps Sir Keir has played a blinder.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,583
    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    As we have many ardent lockdown enthusiasts on here a question

    How much should we spend to save a covid death?

    £100,000 per death
    £1,000,000 per death
    £10,000,000 per death
    £100,000,000

    Where do you personally draw the line.
    Given we had a forecast of 250,000 fatalities if we did nothing and we have had 50,000 or so anyway

    On what we have spent so far around £210,000,000,000 that is already more than 1,000,000 per life saved

    source of 210 billion figure
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/08/uks-public-spending-watchdog-estimates-210bn-coronavirus-bill

    You are making the brave assumption that you survive.

    If it's me we are talking about I am quite content to spend the £210,000,000,000 on me alone. It's only (borrowed) money after all.
    On the contrary I am at large risk having chemical induced respiratory problems and allergic asthma on top.
    Well I for one am happy to spend whatever it takes to keep you safe!
    Then I hope you never get near power. The cost of bankrupting future generations to keep one person safe is not a legacy I would wish thanks all the same
    Please yourself, I made what I considered to be a generous offer in good faith.
    A generous offer with other peoples money, people as yet unborn
    Very altruistic of you.

    I would rather reduce the fatalities now and worry how we pay for the pandemic socially and financially when that bridge has been crossed. I can't countenance that sacrificing 500,000 people is a price worth paying to safeguard 10,000,000 jobs, or 50,000 people for 1,000,000 jobs or whatever figures you care to use.

    I accept my previous paragraph is an over simplification of reality, but this is the sort of insanity that led to the Ford Motor Company monetarising a life of customers and their families against the cost of retro fitting petrol tanks that wouldn't explode in a minor rear end collision on the Ford Pinto car.

    What value a life, particularly if it is my loved one?
  • The Telegraph says Johnson will consider a circuit breaker if his tiers strategy doesn't work.

    Perhaps Sir Keir has played a blinder.

    You didn't have to be a genius to work out this was an obvious political move.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    The Telegraph says Johnson will consider a circuit breaker if his tiers strategy doesn't work.

    Perhaps Sir Keir has played a blinder.

    You can bet when it happens though that an objection to it will be found. Probably around the extent of the financial support.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    The Telegraph says Johnson will consider a circuit breaker if his tiers strategy doesn't work.

    A decision will be taken next week.

    Perhaps Sir Keir has played a blinder.

    Simply following the advice of looking to where we will probably be in 2-3 weeks and suggest that, so look clairvoyant.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    kle4 said:

    IDK, I'm really not feeling the whitewashing claims here.

    Plans for a new movie about Cleopatra have sparked a controversy before filming has even started.

    The role of the famed ancient Egyptian ruler is to be played by Israeli actress Gal Gadot, best known for her Hollywood depictions of Wonder Woman.

    The announcement has led to a row on social media with some alleging "cultural whitewashing", where white actors portray people of colour.

    Some have said the role should instead go to an Arab or African actress...

    Writer on Africa, James Hall, said he thought the filmmakers should find an African actress, of any race.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-54529836

    I agree with them. Only a 2000 year old mummy should be playing the role.
  • alex_ said:

    The Telegraph says Johnson will consider a circuit breaker if his tiers strategy doesn't work.

    Perhaps Sir Keir has played a blinder.

    You can bet when it happens though that an objection to it will be found. Probably around the extent of the financial support.
    The government could offer 125% of people's wages and the call would still be that it isn't enough.
  • alex_ said:

    The Telegraph says Johnson will consider a circuit breaker if his tiers strategy doesn't work.

    Perhaps Sir Keir has played a blinder.

    You can bet when it happens though that an objection to it will be found. Probably around the extent of the financial support.
    Yes, but I think Starmer will be 'if only you had listened to me sooner and we wouldn't have so many deaths.'
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    kle4 said:

    IDK, I'm really not feeling the whitewashing claims here.

    Plans for a new movie about Cleopatra have sparked a controversy before filming has even started.

    The role of the famed ancient Egyptian ruler is to be played by Israeli actress Gal Gadot, best known for her Hollywood depictions of Wonder Woman.

    The announcement has led to a row on social media with some alleging "cultural whitewashing", where white actors portray people of colour.

    Some have said the role should instead go to an Arab or African actress...

    Writer on Africa, James Hall, said he thought the filmmakers should find an African actress, of any race.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-54529836

    Interesting factoid.
    Cleopatra lived closer to today than to when the Great Pyramid was built.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    https://twitter.com/johntalsr/status/1315774645061246976

    Absolutely shocking that anyone has to wait 11 hours to vote.

    I once had to wait 5 minutes to vote. That's the longest I've ever had to wait.

    America is barely functioning as a democracy.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,583

    The Telegraph says Johnson will consider a circuit breaker if his tiers strategy doesn't work.

    Perhaps Sir Keir has played a blinder.

    You didn't have to be a genius to work out this was an obvious political move.
    It seems to have passed Johnson by.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,092
    SKS: "If we follow the science and break the circuit .."
    But this is about peoples' behaviour - more social engineering than "science". None of this is observation or experiment or hypothesis testing.
  • alex_ said:

    The Telegraph says Johnson will consider a circuit breaker if his tiers strategy doesn't work.

    Perhaps Sir Keir has played a blinder.

    You can bet when it happens though that an objection to it will be found. Probably around the extent of the financial support.
    Yes, but I think Starmer will be 'if only you had listened to me sooner and we wouldn't have so many deaths.'
    Even if we don't go for a circuit breaker, every death will be met with if only we locked down for 2 weeks.
  • Boris Johnson will consider a “circuit breaker” lockdown if his tier system fails to work after Sir Keir Starmer increased the pressure on him by calling for new national restrictions.

    Government sources said the Prime Minister could order a two-week closure of pubs, restaurants and some other businesses if measures brought in on Wednesday in Covid hotspots do not reverse the spread of the virus.

    A decision will be taken toward the end of next week, ahead of the half-term holiday for state schools which begins on Oct 26 and would mark the start of any temporary lockdown.

    One option under consideration is for regional circuit breakers, which might be preferred by the Prime Minister after he likened a second national lockdown to a “nuclear deterrent”. One senior source said the chances of a circuit breaker were “at least 80 per cent”.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/10/13/lockdown-battle-begins-boris-johnson-concedes-circuit-breaker/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706

    The Telegraph says Johnson will consider a circuit breaker if his tiers strategy doesn't work.

    A decision will be taken next week.

    Perhaps Sir Keir has played a blinder.

    38% of Leave voters and 46% of Tory voters though say the government was right not to have introduced a lockdown in September compared to only 28% of voters as a whole, so if Boris does introduce a circuit breaker lockdown he risks losing voters to Farage and the Brexit Party

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2020/10/13/eb138/1?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=daily_questions&utm_campaign=question_1
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited October 2020

    The Telegraph says Johnson will consider a circuit breaker if his tiers strategy doesn't work.

    A decision will be taken next week.

    Perhaps Sir Keir has played a blinder.

    Next week! What an effing joke.

    A day ago the review period for the Tiered measures was 28 days!!!

    Maybe it really is all dependent on whether London triggers the threshold for Tier 2...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    MaxPB said:

    On breaking the transmission chain - I've written about it at length over the last few days and other countries already use similar methods.

    This is what is necessary:

    Local authorities should be given unlimited money/resources to be able to temporarily house up to 1500 (plus or minus 500 depending on population density) people at any time within their borough or local area, this would give national isolation capacity of around 600k. Local authorities would be able to find hotel rooms for up to £120 per day meaning they would be liable to spend a maximum of £240k per day on accomodation costs and a national liability of £72m per day, even taking into account for corruption and local kleptocracy it's around £100m per day.

    At the same time they would also be contacting catering firms in their authority to provide hot meals for all of these people in isolation and delivery of the meals to hotels. Leaving it to local authorities is best because they know their areas and companies who can provide these services. At £50 per day per person in isolation it would be a liability of up to £35m per day for food and distribution.

    Next is ferrying people from their homes to the hotels, this would need to be done with private coaches and drivers in hazmat suits and local officials with full hazmat suits to accompany isolating people to and from the hotels, this could again be sourced locally and schools would probably be able to pitch in here too.

    Finally ensuring people do it. Given them £500 per week to isolate in the hotel.

    What it people refuse - the other option for refuseniks is a non-removable wrist tracking band and £700 per week in isolation with punitive fines and loss of the £700 for spending more than 5 minutes out of your residence. This tracking can be done automatically and fines generated automatically.

    Why is this necessary - at the moment around 4 in 5 people who test positive for the virus don't actually isolate properly. Many people report going to the shops, a few go to the pub and a large number also go to work for fear of being sacked or because the current self isolation incentive is too low and doesn't cover their expenses.

    The system sounds tough, but ultimately it's asking people to give up around two weeks of their life to ensure everyone else around them is safe.

    Could not agree more.
  • https://twitter.com/johntalsr/status/1315774645061246976

    Absolutely shocking that anyone has to wait 11 hours to vote.

    I once had to wait 5 minutes to vote. That's the longest I've ever had to wait.

    America is barely functioning as a democracy.
    Indeed.

    Congress should pass a law capping the number of people per ballot box across the country.

    Though if they did it wouldn't surprise me if the GOP still tried to gerrymander suppression.
  • kle4 said:

    IDK, I'm really not feeling the whitewashing claims here.

    Plans for a new movie about Cleopatra have sparked a controversy before filming has even started.

    The role of the famed ancient Egyptian ruler is to be played by Israeli actress Gal Gadot, best known for her Hollywood depictions of Wonder Woman.

    The announcement has led to a row on social media with some alleging "cultural whitewashing", where white actors portray people of colour.

    Some have said the role should instead go to an Arab or African actress...

    Writer on Africa, James Hall, said he thought the filmmakers should find an African actress, of any race.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-54529836

    Wasn't Cleopatra of Greek descent? The Ptolemys were descended from one of Alexander the Great's generals.
  • Boris Johnson will consider a “circuit breaker” lockdown if his tier system fails to work after Sir Keir Starmer increased the pressure on him by calling for new national restrictions.

    Government sources said the Prime Minister could order a two-week closure of pubs, restaurants and some other businesses if measures brought in on Wednesday in Covid hotspots do not reverse the spread of the virus.

    A decision will be taken toward the end of next week, ahead of the half-term holiday for state schools which begins on Oct 26 and would mark the start of any temporary lockdown.

    One option under consideration is for regional circuit breakers, which might be preferred by the Prime Minister after he likened a second national lockdown to a “nuclear deterrent”. One senior source said the chances of a circuit breaker were “at least 80 per cent”.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/10/13/lockdown-battle-begins-boris-johnson-concedes-circuit-breaker/

    Surely regional circuit breakers is just moving other regions to Tier 3?
  • Boris Johnson will consider a “circuit breaker” lockdown if his tier system fails to work after Sir Keir Starmer increased the pressure on him by calling for new national restrictions.

    Government sources said the Prime Minister could order a two-week closure of pubs, restaurants and some other businesses if measures brought in on Wednesday in Covid hotspots do not reverse the spread of the virus.

    A decision will be taken toward the end of next week, ahead of the half-term holiday for state schools which begins on Oct 26 and would mark the start of any temporary lockdown.

    One option under consideration is for regional circuit breakers, which might be preferred by the Prime Minister after he likened a second national lockdown to a “nuclear deterrent”. One senior source said the chances of a circuit breaker were “at least 80 per cent”.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/10/13/lockdown-battle-begins-boris-johnson-concedes-circuit-breaker/

    Surely regional circuit breakers is just moving other regions to Tier 3?
    I think it'll be everywhere will be in tier 3 so Boris Johnson can convince himself he's not approved a second national lockdown.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941

    Boris Johnson will consider a “circuit breaker” lockdown if his tier system fails to work after Sir Keir Starmer increased the pressure on him by calling for new national restrictions.

    Government sources said the Prime Minister could order a two-week closure of pubs, restaurants and some other businesses if measures brought in on Wednesday in Covid hotspots do not reverse the spread of the virus.

    A decision will be taken toward the end of next week, ahead of the half-term holiday for state schools which begins on Oct 26 and would mark the start of any temporary lockdown.

    One option under consideration is for regional circuit breakers, which might be preferred by the Prime Minister after he likened a second national lockdown to a “nuclear deterrent”. One senior source said the chances of a circuit breaker were “at least 80 per cent”.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/10/13/lockdown-battle-begins-boris-johnson-concedes-circuit-breaker/

    Surely regional circuit breakers is just moving other regions to Tier 3?
    Two geographical regions having different levels of restrictions? Na, too confusing.
  • While I agree with a lot of what Max says, the idea of ankle bracelets to trace those who need to isolate would go down abour as well as South Korean spy app for track and trace.

    It would be all good until they actually said they would do it and then the outcry would be deafening.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    Boris Johnson will consider a “circuit breaker” lockdown if his tier system fails to work after Sir Keir Starmer increased the pressure on him by calling for new national restrictions.

    Government sources said the Prime Minister could order a two-week closure of pubs, restaurants and some other businesses if measures brought in on Wednesday in Covid hotspots do not reverse the spread of the virus.

    A decision will be taken toward the end of next week, ahead of the half-term holiday for state schools which begins on Oct 26 and would mark the start of any temporary lockdown.

    One option under consideration is for regional circuit breakers, which might be preferred by the Prime Minister after he likened a second national lockdown to a “nuclear deterrent”. One senior source said the chances of a circuit breaker were “at least 80 per cent”.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/10/13/lockdown-battle-begins-boris-johnson-concedes-circuit-breaker/

    Surely regional circuit breakers is just moving other regions to Tier 3?
    Yes, it's just tier 3 at half term.
  • alex_ said:

    The Telegraph says Johnson will consider a circuit breaker if his tiers strategy doesn't work.

    A decision will be taken next week.

    Perhaps Sir Keir has played a blinder.

    Next week! What an effing joke.

    A day ago the review period for the Tiered measures was 28 days!!!

    Maybe it really is all dependent on whether London triggers the threshold for Tier 2...
    Consistency and logic really aren't the adjectives you'd ascribe to Boris Johnson.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    On the subject of functioning democracy in the US...

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/12/us/politics/california-gop-drop-boxes.html
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    It'll cause absolute chaos for the hundreds of thousands who have booked a half term holiday staycation.
  • So a circuit breaker probably means my new iPhone 12 Pro Max won't be delivered on time.

    Boris Johnson needs to resign.
  • Boris Johnson will consider a “circuit breaker” lockdown if his tier system fails to work after Sir Keir Starmer increased the pressure on him by calling for new national restrictions.

    Government sources said the Prime Minister could order a two-week closure of pubs, restaurants and some other businesses if measures brought in on Wednesday in Covid hotspots do not reverse the spread of the virus.

    A decision will be taken toward the end of next week, ahead of the half-term holiday for state schools which begins on Oct 26 and would mark the start of any temporary lockdown.

    One option under consideration is for regional circuit breakers, which might be preferred by the Prime Minister after he likened a second national lockdown to a “nuclear deterrent”. One senior source said the chances of a circuit breaker were “at least 80 per cent”.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/10/13/lockdown-battle-begins-boris-johnson-concedes-circuit-breaker/

    Surely regional circuit breakers is just moving other regions to Tier 3?
    I think it'll be everywhere will be in tier 3 so Boris Johnson can convince himself he's not approved a second national lockdown.
    Except cornwall and devon...so it won't technically be a national lockdown.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835

    The Telegraph says Johnson will consider a circuit breaker if his tiers strategy doesn't work.

    A decision will be taken next week.

    Perhaps Sir Keir has played a blinder.

    A decision to consider it?
    Next week is not enough time to decide whether it has worked or not.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    Boris Johnson will consider a “circuit breaker” lockdown if his tier system fails to work after Sir Keir Starmer increased the pressure on him by calling for new national restrictions.

    Government sources said the Prime Minister could order a two-week closure of pubs, restaurants and some other businesses if measures brought in on Wednesday in Covid hotspots do not reverse the spread of the virus.

    A decision will be taken toward the end of next week, ahead of the half-term holiday for state schools which begins on Oct 26 and would mark the start of any temporary lockdown.

    One option under consideration is for regional circuit breakers, which might be preferred by the Prime Minister after he likened a second national lockdown to a “nuclear deterrent”. One senior source said the chances of a circuit breaker were “at least 80 per cent”.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/10/13/lockdown-battle-begins-boris-johnson-concedes-circuit-breaker/

    Surely regional circuit breakers is just moving other regions to Tier 3?
    I think it'll be everywhere will be in tier 3 so Boris Johnson can convince himself he's not approved a second national lockdown.
    No doubt they'll find a couple of small rural counties to leave out so that it definitely isn't a national lockdown.

    Maybe Rutland?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    11.9m votes cast - 8.6% of total 2016 vote.

    Key states (% of total 2016 vote):

    PA - 7.1%
    MI - 21.9%
    WI - 24.1%
    FL - 18.6%
    NC - 10.0%
    AZ - 0.2%

    https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,151
    Keir and Sadiq have come out in their true colours.

    Total lockdown with everyone on benefits.

    Well done Labour!
  • alex_ said:

    It'll cause absolute chaos for the hundreds of thousands who have booked a half term holiday staycation.

    And again, the government should have been ruling out holidays ages ago. None until next summer.
  • guybrushguybrush Posts: 234
    edited October 2020

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    As we have many ardent lockdown enthusiasts on here a question

    How much should we spend to save a covid death?

    £100,000 per death
    £1,000,000 per death
    £10,000,000 per death
    £100,000,000

    Where do you personally draw the line.
    Given we had a forecast of 250,000 fatalities if we did nothing and we have had 50,000 or so anyway

    On what we have spent so far around £210,000,000,000 that is already more than 1,000,000 per life saved

    source of 210 billion figure
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/08/uks-public-spending-watchdog-estimates-210bn-coronavirus-bill

    You are making the brave assumption that you survive.

    If it's me we are talking about I am quite content to spend the £210,000,000,000 on me alone. It's only (borrowed) money after all.
    On the contrary I am at large risk having chemical induced respiratory problems and allergic asthma on top.
    Well I for one am happy to spend whatever it takes to keep you safe!
    Then I hope you never get near power. The cost of bankrupting future generations to keep one person safe is not a legacy I would wish thanks all the same
    Please yourself, I made what I considered to be a generous offer in good faith.
    A generous offer with other peoples money, people as yet unborn
    Very altruistic of you.

    I would rather reduce the fatalities now and worry how we pay for the pandemic socially and financially when that bridge has been crossed. I can't countenance that sacrificing 500,000 people is a price worth paying to safeguard 10,000,000 jobs, or 50,000 people for 1,000,000 jobs or whatever figures you care to use.

    I accept my previous paragraph is an over simplification of reality, but this is the sort of insanity that led to the Ford Motor Company monetarising a life of customers and their families against the cost of retro fitting petrol tanks that wouldn't explode in a minor rear end collision on the Ford Pinto car.

    What value a life, particularly if it is my loved one?
    It's normal practise to use a figure for the "Value of Preventing a Fatality" in order to make decisions involving safety risk. Different figures are used for different industries. If it's not done explicitly, it will be done implicitly as decisions have to be made and risk can never be completely eliminated. Why shouldn't this approach be used for Covid?

    The Pinto case I grant you the right call may not have been made regarding a recall, and was no doubt influenced by Fords bottom line which feels a little grubby. I don't think there's a clear analalogly to Covid, too many other societal and economic negativities involved.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    MaxPB said:

    On breaking the transmission chain - I've written about it at length over the last few days and other countries already use similar methods.

    This is what is necessary:

    Local authorities should be given unlimited money/resources to be able to temporarily house up to 1500 (plus or minus 500 depending on population density) people at any time within their borough or local area, this would give national isolation capacity of around 600k. Local authorities would be able to find hotel rooms for up to £120 per day meaning they would be liable to spend a maximum of £240k per day on accomodation costs and a national liability of £72m per day, even taking into account for corruption and local kleptocracy it's around £100m per day.

    At the same time they would also be contacting catering firms in their authority to provide hot meals for all of these people in isolation and delivery of the meals to hotels. Leaving it to local authorities is best because they know their areas and companies who can provide these services. At £50 per day per person in isolation it would be a liability of up to £35m per day for food and distribution.

    Next is ferrying people from their homes to the hotels, this would need to be done with private coaches and drivers in hazmat suits and local officials with full hazmat suits to accompany isolating people to and from the hotels, this could again be sourced locally and schools would probably be able to pitch in here too.

    Finally ensuring people do it. Given them £500 per week to isolate in the hotel.

    What it people refuse - the other option for refuseniks is a non-removable wrist tracking band and £700 per week in isolation with punitive fines and loss of the £700 for spending more than 5 minutes out of your residence. This tracking can be done automatically and fines generated automatically.

    Why is this necessary - at the moment around 4 in 5 people who test positive for the virus don't actually isolate properly. Many people report going to the shops, a few go to the pub and a large number also go to work for fear of being sacked or because the current self isolation incentive is too low and doesn't cover their expenses.

    The system sounds tough, but ultimately it's asking people to give up around two weeks of their life to ensure everyone else around them is safe.

    Can you guarantee decent Internet access in the hotel rooms?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    While I agree with a lot of what Max says, the idea of ankle bracelets to trace those who need to isolate would go down abour as well as South Korean spy app for track and trace.

    It would be all good until they actually said they would do it and then the outcry would be deafening.

    It's two weeks and £1400 to do it and I'd use wrist bracelets rather than the ankle ones which are obviously associated to convicts.

    Also, it's the option for people who refuse two weeks in a hotel with three free meals a day and £1000.

    I don't think it's unreasonable.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038
    alex_ said:

    The Telegraph says Johnson will consider a circuit breaker if his tiers strategy doesn't work.

    A decision will be taken next week.

    Perhaps Sir Keir has played a blinder.

    Next week! What an effing joke.

    A day ago the review period for the Tiered measures was 28 days!!!

    Maybe it really is all dependent on whether London triggers the threshold for Tier 2...
    Next week is a joke. No way the tiers would have made any difference by next week. For a start they don't start until Wednesday. Plus the first few days of figures will probably be bad because all the students went out on a massive binge in local pubs at weekend knowing they would be possibly closed on Wednesday.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    edited October 2020

    alex_ said:

    It'll cause absolute chaos for the hundreds of thousands who have booked a half term holiday staycation.

    And again, the government should have been ruling out holidays ages ago. None until next summer.
    Because why? So that people wouldn't have to cancel them because Johnson can't make his mind up from one day to the next? People are just inventing reasons why certain activities are supposedly significant spreaders of the virus.

    Otherwise, why is Devon and Cornwall still so unaffected?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    So a circuit breaker probably means my new iPhone 12 Pro Max won't be delivered on time.

    Boris Johnson needs to resign.

    If it delays my PS5 there will be blood.
  • Shut the front door.

    Operation Moonshot might be a load of horseshit.

    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1316099444916576256

    That was about a specificities trial of saliva tests.

    What is interesting in that story is the lack of why.

    Apparently they had some problems finding volunteers.. undefined....

    Apparently "its part in Operation Moonshot had been paused due to a lack of clarity over the accuracy of the saliva testing system." - according to a politician who'd been told by council officials.

    I smell systemic resistance - maybe even herd immunity. From things they don't like... but why?
    I actually did a saliva test today at Southampton University, just spat in a pot, I had the result 8 hours later. They are doing it for all staff and contractors working at the UNI on a weekly basis.
    These tests work. They are fairly accurate as well, I believe. The reason I suspect systemic resistance is that every time the government has spoken about mass testing - increasing PCR to 1 million per day for example, people from NHS/associated organisations pop up to say that this is a bad idea/wrong/screening is bad/ etc etc
    Yes, I suspect this too. The Not Invented Here syndrome seems to be untreatable in organizations like the NHS and PHE. I wish more Universities had the resources to just do the research themselves, but the costs of medical research are such that they pretty much have to be externally funded.

    Boris's comments about maybe never a vaccine sounds like him misquoting one of the scientists. Whitty and Vallance have always been careful not to stress how difficult vaccine research is, particularly early in the pandemic, and I think that negativity has sunk in. The consensus view of immunologists seems to be that this particular virus is very amenable to vaccines, and that at least one of the technologies currently under trial will work to a clinically significant degree. (I imagine we will get more effective vaccines in future years.)

    From the numbers it seems that the Pfizer vaccine, not the Oxford one, has the best chance of an early readout -- partly because they got on with the dosing rather more promptly, partly because of where they are testing, partly because they define cases a little more generously, and partly because they set rather aggressive interim case numbers. I have always thought, since June or July, that October evidence would be the most optimistic possible, with November or December more plausible, and early next year if we are unlucky. We will get there.

    --AS
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,588
    glw said:

    kle4 said:

    IDK, I'm really not feeling the whitewashing claims here.

    Plans for a new movie about Cleopatra have sparked a controversy before filming has even started.

    The role of the famed ancient Egyptian ruler is to be played by Israeli actress Gal Gadot, best known for her Hollywood depictions of Wonder Woman.

    The announcement has led to a row on social media with some alleging "cultural whitewashing", where white actors portray people of colour.

    Some have said the role should instead go to an Arab or African actress...

    Writer on Africa, James Hall, said he thought the filmmakers should find an African actress, of any race.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-54529836

    Charlize Theron then. Done.
    If they want to be exact - Macedonian*, surely? The real Cleopatra would probably have had a fit if it was suggested that she was an ethnic Egyptian**

    *Yes can of worms working out who Macedonians are or were.
    **Yes, even bigger can of worms
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    On breaking the transmission chain - I've written about it at length over the last few days and other countries already use similar methods.

    This is what is necessary:

    Local authorities should be given unlimited money/resources to be able to temporarily house up to 1500 (plus or minus 500 depending on population density) people at any time within their borough or local area, this would give national isolation capacity of around 600k. Local authorities would be able to find hotel rooms for up to £120 per day meaning they would be liable to spend a maximum of £240k per day on accomodation costs and a national liability of £72m per day, even taking into account for corruption and local kleptocracy it's around £100m per day.

    At the same time they would also be contacting catering firms in their authority to provide hot meals for all of these people in isolation and delivery of the meals to hotels. Leaving it to local authorities is best because they know their areas and companies who can provide these services. At £50 per day per person in isolation it would be a liability of up to £35m per day for food and distribution.

    Next is ferrying people from their homes to the hotels, this would need to be done with private coaches and drivers in hazmat suits and local officials with full hazmat suits to accompany isolating people to and from the hotels, this could again be sourced locally and schools would probably be able to pitch in here too.

    Finally ensuring people do it. Given them £500 per week to isolate in the hotel.

    What it people refuse - the other option for refuseniks is a non-removable wrist tracking band and £700 per week in isolation with punitive fines and loss of the £700 for spending more than 5 minutes out of your residence. This tracking can be done automatically and fines generated automatically.

    Why is this necessary - at the moment around 4 in 5 people who test positive for the virus don't actually isolate properly. Many people report going to the shops, a few go to the pub and a large number also go to work for fear of being sacked or because the current self isolation incentive is too low and doesn't cover their expenses.

    The system sounds tough, but ultimately it's asking people to give up around two weeks of their life to ensure everyone else around them is safe.

    Can you guarantee decent Internet access in the hotel rooms?
    Part of the remit, it's why they are £120 rooms and not £30 ones.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,261
    MikeL said:

    11.9m votes cast - 8.6% of total 2016 vote.

    Key states (% of total 2016 vote):

    PA - 7.1%
    MI - 21.9%
    WI - 24.1%
    FL - 18.6%
    NC - 10.0%
    AZ - 0.2%

    https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

    Numbers quite impressive in some states, notably Wisconsin, but still far more requested than sent. Is there a Dem/GOP split by state somewhere?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    edited October 2020

    kle4 said:

    IDK, I'm really not feeling the whitewashing claims here.

    Plans for a new movie about Cleopatra have sparked a controversy before filming has even started.

    The role of the famed ancient Egyptian ruler is to be played by Israeli actress Gal Gadot, best known for her Hollywood depictions of Wonder Woman.

    The announcement has led to a row on social media with some alleging "cultural whitewashing", where white actors portray people of colour.

    Some have said the role should instead go to an Arab or African actress...

    Writer on Africa, James Hall, said he thought the filmmakers should find an African actress, of any race.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-54529836

    Wasn't Cleopatra of Greek descent? The Ptolemys were descended from one of Alexander the Great's generals.
    Presumably why Mr Hall is only insisting on African, of 'any race'. Frankly I don't know whether any of the Ptolemies may have by that point been of mixed race or not, but it all seems pretty stupid, as we certainly cannot precisely match her genetic makeup in any case.

    It's a British-Indian lady being cast to play Princess Jasmine all over again, and that was an adaption of a bloody Disney film.

    Just make it a non-realistic movie, like that Mary Queen of Scot movie a year or so ago, no need to worry about race of participatants then.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    MaxPB said:

    So a circuit breaker probably means my new iPhone 12 Pro Max won't be delivered on time.

    Boris Johnson needs to resign.

    If it delays my PS5 there will be blood.
    Gives it more time for some decent games to be developed for it.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518

    alex_ said:

    The Telegraph says Johnson will consider a circuit breaker if his tiers strategy doesn't work.

    A decision will be taken next week.

    Perhaps Sir Keir has played a blinder.

    Next week! What an effing joke.

    A day ago the review period for the Tiered measures was 28 days!!!

    Maybe it really is all dependent on whether London triggers the threshold for Tier 2...
    Next week is a joke. No way the tiers would have made any difference by next week. For a start they don't start until Wednesday. Plus the first few days of figures will probably be bad because all the students went out on a massive binge in local pubs at weekend knowing they would be possibly closed on Wednesday.
    It would be the same with a "2 week circuit breaker". Everyone goes to the pub on the Friday night. Two week shutdown. Everyone hits the pub 2 weeks on Monday.

  • MaxPB said:

    While I agree with a lot of what Max says, the idea of ankle bracelets to trace those who need to isolate would go down abour as well as South Korean spy app for track and trace.

    It would be all good until they actually said they would do it and then the outcry would be deafening.

    It's two weeks and £1400 to do it and I'd use wrist bracelets rather than the ankle ones which are obviously associated to convicts.

    Also, it's the option for people who refuse two weeks in a hotel with three free meals a day and £1000.

    I don't think it's unreasonable.
    I don't either...but look at the screaming over does ordering a pasty equal a meal.

    The media would go mental and find edge cases that they would mean it is inhuman. Just see the idea of not mixing households gets streams of people presented by the media where they have 3 different family groups, one kid recovering from cancer and another is autistic, yadda yadda yadda.
  • I have been unable to use Quote so have just set up again
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542

    While I agree with a lot of what Max says, the idea of ankle bracelets to trace those who need to isolate would go down abour as well as South Korean spy app for track and trace.

    It would be all good until they actually said they would do it and then the outcry would be deafening.

    Call random time each day of quarantine on landline or location enabled smartphone app, plus home visits as required. Cover salary for quarantine and provide health visitor type cover to ensure people have access to what they need while they are in quarantine and also understand what they are required to do and why. Backed up by meaningful fines for infraction. Requires a serious effort but will massively pay off.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,588
    MaxPB said:

    On breaking the transmission chain - I've written about it at length over the last few days and other countries already use similar methods.

    This is what is necessary:

    Local authorities should be given unlimited money/resources to be able to temporarily house up to 1500 (plus or minus 500 depending on population density) people at any time within their borough or local area, this would give national isolation capacity of around 600k. Local authorities would be able to find hotel rooms for up to £120 per day meaning they would be liable to spend a maximum of £240k per day on accomodation costs and a national liability of £72m per day, even taking into account for corruption and local kleptocracy it's around £100m per day.

    At the same time they would also be contacting catering firms in their authority to provide hot meals for all of these people in isolation and delivery of the meals to hotels. Leaving it to local authorities is best because they know their areas and companies who can provide these services. At £50 per day per person in isolation it would be a liability of up to £35m per day for food and distribution.

    Next is ferrying people from their homes to the hotels, this would need to be done with private coaches and drivers in hazmat suits and local officials with full hazmat suits to accompany isolating people to and from the hotels, this could again be sourced locally and schools would probably be able to pitch in here too.

    Finally ensuring people do it. Given them £500 per week to isolate in the hotel.

    What it people refuse - the other option for refuseniks is a non-removable wrist tracking band and £700 per week in isolation with punitive fines and loss of the £700 for spending more than 5 minutes out of your residence. This tracking can be done automatically and fines generated automatically.

    Why is this necessary - at the moment around 4 in 5 people who test positive for the virus don't actually isolate properly. Many people report going to the shops, a few go to the pub and a large number also go to work for fear of being sacked or because the current self isolation incentive is too low and doesn't cover their expenses.

    The system sounds tough, but ultimately it's asking people to give up around two weeks of their life to ensure everyone else around them is safe.

    How many pubs in Britain?

    Enough to lock plague victims in - one per pub?

  • MaxPB said:

    So a circuit breaker probably means my new iPhone 12 Pro Max won't be delivered on time.

    Boris Johnson needs to resign.

    If it delays my PS5 there will be blood.
    So you can play PS4 games on it.....
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    edited October 2020

    MikeL said:

    11.9m votes cast - 8.6% of total 2016 vote.

    Key states (% of total 2016 vote):

    PA - 7.1%
    MI - 21.9%
    WI - 24.1%
    FL - 18.6%
    NC - 10.0%
    AZ - 0.2%

    https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

    Numbers quite impressive in some states, notably Wisconsin, but still far more requested than sent. Is there a Dem/GOP split by state somewhere?
    For the states that provide that information, yes. On the link given, I believe. Click on that State tabs to look at what details each state gives. Generally Dem request rates outpace GOP requests, and Dem return rates do too.
  • rpjs said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    nico679 said:

    Trump won West Virginia by 42 points and Missouri by 18 points in 2016. The former in terms of that current poll is the real shocker with Trump ahead by 14 points .
    Don't forget that WV was the last State in the South to convert from Dem to GOP, and the last Dem Governor of WV is still one of its Senators.
    I thought WV broke away from Virginia to fight for the North.
    LOLs. It was the GOP that ended slavery, so they broke with VA to become a GOP state. But for a long while after that, it was a solid Dem state.
    I was talking about WV being considered a "Southern State".
    Still south of the Mason-Dixie.
    West Virginia is not so much a Southern state as an Appalachian state, and in fact is the only state that's wholly in the standard definition of "Appalachia". Appalachia is characterized by extreme poverty coupled with a spirit of independence strong even by American standards. The former would make you assume it would go to the Democrats, but it's outweighed by the latter and its concomitant distrust of "Big Government".
    I seem to recall a bumper sticker: 'West Virginia - 2 million people, 20 families'.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    edited October 2020

    MikeL said:

    11.9m votes cast - 8.6% of total 2016 vote.

    Key states (% of total 2016 vote):

    PA - 7.1%
    MI - 21.9%
    WI - 24.1%
    FL - 18.6%
    NC - 10.0%
    AZ - 0.2%

    https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

    Numbers quite impressive in some states, notably Wisconsin, but still far more requested than sent. Is there a Dem/GOP split by state somewhere?
    See near top of link - you can click on each individual state to get varying info by state - but not usually Party split.

    But some states have Party split - eg New Jersey.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,151

    I have been unable to use Quote so have just set up again

    Welcome! Are you are Drakeford fan?! :lol:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706
    BBC news reports Trump is to hold a daily rally from now until election day in a marathon swing across the key swing states to try and pull out a come from behind win
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,038

    I have been unable to use Quote so have just set up again

    Is that you Big_G?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    MikeL said:

    11.9m votes cast - 8.6% of total 2016 vote.

    Key states (% of total 2016 vote):

    PA - 7.1%
    MI - 21.9%
    WI - 24.1%
    FL - 18.6%
    NC - 10.0%
    AZ - 0.2%

    https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

    Numbers quite impressive in some states, notably Wisconsin, but still far more requested than sent. Is there a Dem/GOP split by state somewhere?
    Data availability is dependent on the state. Currently in NC Respondents perty registrations are
    Dem 51%
    GOP: 17%
    Ind: 31%

    Important point for election night in North Carolina: Early votes are reported first.


    7:30pm: polls close**

    7:30pm~8:30pm: early votes are reported

    One-stop votes and absentee by-mail votes that have been approved by a county board of elections (CBE) are reported in the Media File and on the ER Dashboard
    Data refresh every 5~10 minutes
    7:30pm~9:30pm: precinct officials hand-deliver results to CBEs

    8:30pm~1:00am: precinct results are reported

    Results appear in the Media File and on the ER Dashboard
    Data refresh every 5~10 minutes


  • I never understood why the government didn't use uni rooms for quarantine or isolation back in the summer. 100,000s of rooms across the UK totally unused.

    Remember the first few groups theh got back from China, that's exactly what they did.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 24,583

    The Telegraph says Johnson will consider a circuit breaker if his tiers strategy doesn't work.

    A decision will be taken next week.

    Perhaps Sir Keir has played a blinder.

    Take your time Boris, no need to rush.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    While I agree with a lot of what Max says, the idea of ankle bracelets to trace those who need to isolate would go down abour as well as South Korean spy app for track and trace.

    It would be all good until they actually said they would do it and then the outcry would be deafening.

    It's two weeks and £1400 to do it and I'd use wrist bracelets rather than the ankle ones which are obviously associated to convicts.

    Also, it's the option for people who refuse two weeks in a hotel with three free meals a day and £1000.

    I don't think it's unreasonable.
    I don't either...but look at the screaming over does ordering a pasty equal a meal.

    The media would go mental and find edge cases that they would mean it is inhuman. Just see the idea of not mixing households gets streams of people presented by the media where they have 3 different family groups, one kid recovering from cancer and another is autistic, yadda yadda yadda.
    Fuck the noise and the headlines. Why have a majority of 80 if you can't do unpopular stuff. I also think it would be a very popular policy as after a few weeks the R would drop to basically zero and coupled with 5 day hotel quarantine and testing on arrival you could basically lift indoor social distancing restrictions and allow people to just get on with life. Then have a China style response to local outbreaks of basically knocking on doors and testing everyone in a local area at once and isolating them in hotels and so on.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    On topic, I'd expect the Democrats to make the gains necessary to get to 50 Senate Seats (and I'm assuming they grab the Presidency too). But beyond there it gets more difficult.

    There are exactly two stats where the polls show generally wide-ish margins for the Democrat Senate candidates - Colorado and Arizona. And then there's one the other way (Alabama).

    Today's polls suggest that Michigan can be put from Leans D, to Probable D.

    That leaves three very close Senate races - Iowa, Maine and North Carolina. In each case, pretty much all the polls in the last month have shown the Dems leading. On the other hand, in no case are the Dems leading by comfortable margins. All three are in the Lean D column, but I'd also not be surprised at all if only one of them went Blue.

    Then there are a few states that show consistent, but small, Republican leads, such as Georgia. (I think the Special election may be the one that goes D, if Kelly Loeffler beats out her Republican challenger.)

    Plus, if you are feeling generous to the Dems, you could see Kansas, Alaska, Montana, South Carolina and Kentucky go if it's a spectacularly bad night for the Republicans.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706
    edited October 2020

    rpjs said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    TimT said:

    nico679 said:

    Trump won West Virginia by 42 points and Missouri by 18 points in 2016. The former in terms of that current poll is the real shocker with Trump ahead by 14 points .
    Don't forget that WV was the last State in the South to convert from Dem to GOP, and the last Dem Governor of WV is still one of its Senators.
    I thought WV broke away from Virginia to fight for the North.
    LOLs. It was the GOP that ended slavery, so they broke with VA to become a GOP state. But for a long while after that, it was a solid Dem state.
    I was talking about WV being considered a "Southern State".
    Still south of the Mason-Dixie.
    West Virginia is not so much a Southern state as an Appalachian state, and in fact is the only state that's wholly in the standard definition of "Appalachia". Appalachia is characterized by extreme poverty coupled with a spirit of independence strong even by American standards. The former would make you assume it would go to the Democrats, but it's outweighed by the latter and its concomitant distrust of "Big Government".
    I seem to recall a bumper sticker: 'West Virginia - 2 million people, 20 families'.
    West Virginia voted Democrat in every presidential election from 1932 until 2000 except the IKE, Nixon and Reagan landslides of 1956, 1972 and 1984 and was one of the most strongly Democratic states in the USA, since 2000 however it has only voted Republican and turned into a safe GOP state
  • rcs1000 said:

    Sky saying AstraZenica vaccine trial results are due "any day".

    I really hope something good comes from this soon, we could all do with some good news. Hope it doesn't affect the election Stateside though.

    The rumour doing the rounds is that the numbers are positive, but not transformational.

    In other words, it gives your immune system a leg up, and significantly reduces the likelihood you will be hospitalised and die, but it doesn't altogether eliminate you getting the disease. What we don't know yet is if it has any impact on the amount of viral matter you shed: if it has a big impact, that would dramatically lower R, but I think that's much harder to calculate.

    The other question is about side effects.
    Given Oxford don't even know the data as not enough cases to unseal it yet (as per my link), I call BS on anything concrete in that rumour, other than that is what the monkeys reaction was when exposed to a massive dose of the plague.
    I'm also very skeptical of rumours. Consider that a scammer could make a good amount of money by buying or shorting stock of one pharma company or another, then starting a rumour. I don't know the processes they will use once data is unblinded, but I think it will be extremely closely-held until announced.

    (I have a friend who did research on those old "penny stock" spam emails that used to circulate. He found that the price of those shares did indeed increase after the spam was sent, and that someone was cashing out afterwards before the price collapsed again.)

    --AS
  • I have been unable to use Quote so have just set up again

    Is that you Big_G?
    Indeed
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    MaxPB said:

    So a circuit breaker probably means my new iPhone 12 Pro Max won't be delivered on time.

    Boris Johnson needs to resign.

    If it delays my PS5 there will be blood.
    Don't worry, I'll make sure you get sent an Xbox One Series X (worst name ever) to make up for it...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    FF43 said:

    While I agree with a lot of what Max says, the idea of ankle bracelets to trace those who need to isolate would go down abour as well as South Korean spy app for track and trace.

    It would be all good until they actually said they would do it and then the outcry would be deafening.

    Call random time each day of quarantine on landline or location enabled smartphone app, plus home visits as required. Cover salary for quarantine and provide health visitor type cover to ensure people have access to what they need while they are in quarantine and also understand what they are required to do and why. Backed up by meaningful fines for infraction. Requires a serious effort but will massively pay off.
    No, I think we the people have shown we can't be trusted with that system. It should now be taken out of our hands and put into the hands of the state. It pains me to say it as someone who believes in personal responsibility, but clearly the vast majority of people don't believe in that any longer.
  • I have been unable to use Quote so have just set up again

    Welcome! Are you are Drakeford fan?! :lol:
    You should know I am not having posted for years under my big g name
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 5,997

    kle4 said:

    IDK, I'm really not feeling the whitewashing claims here.

    Plans for a new movie about Cleopatra have sparked a controversy before filming has even started.

    The role of the famed ancient Egyptian ruler is to be played by Israeli actress Gal Gadot, best known for her Hollywood depictions of Wonder Woman.

    The announcement has led to a row on social media with some alleging "cultural whitewashing", where white actors portray people of colour.

    Some have said the role should instead go to an Arab or African actress...

    Writer on Africa, James Hall, said he thought the filmmakers should find an African actress, of any race.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-54529836

    Wasn't Cleopatra of Greek descent? The Ptolemys were descended from one of Alexander the Great's generals.
    Cleopatra was Greek. The Ptolemeys liked to marry their sisters, so she was about 100% Greek.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,996
    Sorry if this has been discussed. Is that Guardian/Opinium Biden 57 - Trump 40 poll up to snuff?
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, I'd expect the Democrats to make the gains necessary to get to 50 Senate Seats (and I'm assuming they grab the Presidency too). But beyond there it gets more difficult.

    There are exactly two stats where the polls show generally wide-ish margins for the Democrat Senate candidates - Colorado and Arizona. And then there's one the other way (Alabama).

    Today's polls suggest that Michigan can be put from Leans D, to Probable D.

    That leaves three very close Senate races - Iowa, Maine and North Carolina. In each case, pretty much all the polls in the last month have shown the Dems leading. On the other hand, in no case are the Dems leading by comfortable margins. All three are in the Lean D column, but I'd also not be surprised at all if only one of them went Blue.

    Then there are a few states that show consistent, but small, Republican leads, such as Georgia. (I think the Special election may be the one that goes D, if Kelly Loeffler beats out her Republican challenger.)

    Plus, if you are feeling generous to the Dems, you could see Kansas, Alaska, Montana, South Carolina and Kentucky go if it's a spectacularly bad night for the Republicans.

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic, I'd expect the Democrats to make the gains necessary to get to 50 Senate Seats (and I'm assuming they grab the Presidency too). But beyond there it gets more difficult.

    There are exactly two stats where the polls show generally wide-ish margins for the Democrat Senate candidates - Colorado and Arizona. And then there's one the other way (Alabama).

    Today's polls suggest that Michigan can be put from Leans D, to Probable D.

    That leaves three very close Senate races - Iowa, Maine and North Carolina. In each case, pretty much all the polls in the last month have shown the Dems leading. On the other hand, in no case are the Dems leading by comfortable margins. All three are in the Lean D column, but I'd also not be surprised at all if only one of them went Blue.

    Then there are a few states that show consistent, but small, Republican leads, such as Georgia. (I think the Special election may be the one that goes D, if Kelly Loeffler beats out her Republican challenger.)

    Plus, if you are feeling generous to the Dems, you could see Kansas, Alaska, Montana, South Carolina and Kentucky go if it's a spectacularly bad night for the Republicans.

    I am expecting it to be bad for the GOP, with a net +6 for the Dems in the Senate. I don't quite see McConnell going, but Alaska and Graham I think are goners, even if the raw poll numbers are not telling us that yet - Graham because he has pissed so many independents off for his Trumpbrownnosism and Alaska because they like kicking the bums out for no particular reason and this year they have a reason.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    So a circuit breaker probably means my new iPhone 12 Pro Max won't be delivered on time.

    Boris Johnson needs to resign.

    If it delays my PS5 there will be blood.
    Don't worry, I'll make sure you get sent an Xbox One Series X (worst name ever) to make up for it...
    Something to chuck out of the window?
  • MaxPB said:

    While I agree with a lot of what Max says, the idea of ankle bracelets to trace those who need to isolate would go down abour as well as South Korean spy app for track and trace.

    It would be all good until they actually said they would do it and then the outcry would be deafening.

    It's two weeks and £1400 to do it and I'd use wrist bracelets rather than the ankle ones which are obviously associated to convicts.

    Also, it's the option for people who refuse two weeks in a hotel with three free meals a day and £1000.

    I don't think it's unreasonable.
    Why would you give more to those who refuse to go into a hotel? Should be less surely? Otherwise everyone will choose to stay at home.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,835
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    While I agree with a lot of what Max says, the idea of ankle bracelets to trace those who need to isolate would go down abour as well as South Korean spy app for track and trace.

    It would be all good until they actually said they would do it and then the outcry would be deafening.

    It's two weeks and £1400 to do it and I'd use wrist bracelets rather than the ankle ones which are obviously associated to convicts.

    Also, it's the option for people who refuse two weeks in a hotel with three free meals a day and £1000.

    I don't think it's unreasonable.
    I don't either...but look at the screaming over does ordering a pasty equal a meal.

    The media would go mental and find edge cases that they would mean it is inhuman. Just see the idea of not mixing households gets streams of people presented by the media where they have 3 different family groups, one kid recovering from cancer and another is autistic, yadda yadda yadda.
    Fuck the noise and the headlines. Why have a majority of 80 if you can't do unpopular stuff. I also think it would be a very popular policy as after a few weeks the R would drop to basically zero and coupled with 5 day hotel quarantine and testing on arrival you could basically lift indoor social distancing restrictions and allow people to just get on with life. Then have a China style response to local outbreaks of basically knocking on doors and testing everyone in a local area at once and isolating them in hotels and so on.
    Plus the fact there are a large number of folk who will have never experienced such luxury in their lives. Nor 3 cooked meals a day. Without work. And a huge pay rise to boot.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    While I agree with a lot of what Max says, the idea of ankle bracelets to trace those who need to isolate would go down abour as well as South Korean spy app for track and trace.

    It would be all good until they actually said they would do it and then the outcry would be deafening.

    It's two weeks and £1400 to do it and I'd use wrist bracelets rather than the ankle ones which are obviously associated to convicts.

    Also, it's the option for people who refuse two weeks in a hotel with three free meals a day and £1000.

    I don't think it's unreasonable.
    I don't either...but look at the screaming over does ordering a pasty equal a meal.

    The media would go mental and find edge cases that they would mean it is inhuman. Just see the idea of not mixing households gets streams of people presented by the media where they have 3 different family groups, one kid recovering from cancer and another is autistic, yadda yadda yadda.
    Fuck the noise and the headlines. Why have a majority of 80 if you can't do unpopular stuff. I also think it would be a very popular policy as after a few weeks the R would drop to basically zero and coupled with 5 day hotel quarantine and testing on arrival you could basically lift indoor social distancing restrictions and allow people to just get on with life. Then have a China style response to local outbreaks of basically knocking on doors and testing everyone in a local area at once and isolating them in hotels and so on.
    It won't drop to zero. Around half (Scotland) and one third (England) of actual cases are estimated* to be picked up by testing and then contact tracing only finds an proportion of actual close contacts. It is important tool in the box, which isn't currently working as well as it could, but there needs to be other interventions as well.

    * Probably a guestimate. It doesn't necessarily mean Scotland is picking up a bigger proportion of cases with testing.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    MaxPB said:

    While I agree with a lot of what Max says, the idea of ankle bracelets to trace those who need to isolate would go down abour as well as South Korean spy app for track and trace.

    It would be all good until they actually said they would do it and then the outcry would be deafening.

    It's two weeks and £1400 to do it and I'd use wrist bracelets rather than the ankle ones which are obviously associated to convicts.

    Also, it's the option for people who refuse two weeks in a hotel with three free meals a day and £1000.

    I don't think it's unreasonable.
    Why would you give more to those who refuse to go into a hotel? Should be less surely? Otherwise everyone will choose to stay at home.
    It's cheaper and given its subject to automated fines and loss of the subsidy for going out I think it's an acceptable solution.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 43,588

    rcs1000 said:

    Sky saying AstraZenica vaccine trial results are due "any day".

    I really hope something good comes from this soon, we could all do with some good news. Hope it doesn't affect the election Stateside though.

    The rumour doing the rounds is that the numbers are positive, but not transformational.

    In other words, it gives your immune system a leg up, and significantly reduces the likelihood you will be hospitalised and die, but it doesn't altogether eliminate you getting the disease. What we don't know yet is if it has any impact on the amount of viral matter you shed: if it has a big impact, that would dramatically lower R, but I think that's much harder to calculate.

    The other question is about side effects.
    Given Oxford don't even know the data as not enough cases to unseal it yet (as per my link), I call BS on anything concrete in that rumour, other than that is what the monkeys reaction was when exposed to a massive dose of the plague.
    I'm also very skeptical of rumours. Consider that a scammer could make a good amount of money by buying or shorting stock of one pharma company or another, then starting a rumour. I don't know the processes they will use once data is unblinded, but I think it will be extremely closely-held until announced.

    (I have a friend who did research on those old "penny stock" spam emails that used to circulate. He found that the price of those shares did indeed increase after the spam was sent, and that someone was cashing out afterwards before the price collapsed again.)

    --AS
    My boss in a previous job got all interested in the crypto currency markets. His enthusiasm waned after I explained how the pump and dump worked - the beauty of a market with such violently asymmetric buying and selling conditions, is that give the suckers absolutely no chance at all.
This discussion has been closed.