Boris cant do it this week or it looks like surrender. And he cant call it a circuit breaker. So middle of next week he will announce something like a "mini lockdown" which is essentially the SAGE/Starmer circuit breaker with a new name.
They will just put more and more regions in Tier 3, which is effectively the same thing.
I am quite prepared come mid November everywhere but Devon and Cornwall in Tier 3.
So no national lockdown!
Yeap...but it will be for months, not 2 weeks.
You are quite probably correct.
I have a terrible foreboding about the sequel. Part One was managed very well for the first couple of months. This time it will inevitably be total chaos.
RCP currently projects the Democrats will pick up the Senate with 51 seats to 49 Republican, making gains in Iowa, Maine, North Carolina, Arizona and Colorado while the GOP pick up Alabama
I think polls close early, so I recall not too far different to a UK GE night, though obviously later for the West Coast. I remember East Coast results out while West Coast polls were still open.
And is there a big UK-style polls-have-closed-exit-poll-forecast that you can see, then go to bed, wake up and see that that was basically what happened anyway?
Ooh, the best bit is the in play betting. PB is way ahead of the curve and I did a reverse ferret very successfully in 2016, though @rcs1000 famously called it early on for Hillary. I blame it on too much Radiohead.
🙂
In fairness to RCS he did his reverse ferret pretty soon after and that combined with some shrewd observations by other PBers enabled me to reverse my own ferret and finish with a modest profit. PB is certainly the place to be on big election nites.
That's very true. Who can forget @Andy_JS' spreadsheet on the EU referendum night. If ever I meet him in person, I'll definitely be buying the beers.
The problem would be the rule of six and curfew, but I owe him a pint, and @Chris_from_Paris too, whose early Macron tip led to my best ever PB night financially.
Laura Pidcock @LauraPidcock · 32m A ‘circuit break’ must include school closures (or back to lockdown provision). Anything less than that that will be inadequate to slow the spread of the virus. None of us want to be here. We are here because we have been relentlessly failed by government.
An ex MP best forgotten about, why expect her to have helpful answers in the first place?
Its air bridges all over again, every week the regions on the lists change...total mess.
Yup.
The only thing he has achieved is divert half the MPs’ attention from the bigger picture and set them all quibbling about the boundaries and why their own seat should be treated exceptionally or moved into a different category.
Kentucky and Indiana start reporting first, at about 11pm our time. The reason is that polls close in those states at 6pm local time.
I wonder how quickly Indiana will be called for Trump this time round. Last time it was fast. I expect KY to be instacalled no matter how badly he's doing.
Usually a candidate has to be about 10% ahead or more in the exit poll for the TV stations to call it immediately at the close of voting. It used to be less before the 2000 Gore/Bush debacle but they're more cautious these days.
Boris cant do it this week or it looks like surrender. And he cant call it a circuit breaker. So middle of next week he will announce something like a "mini lockdown" which is essentially the SAGE/Starmer circuit breaker with a new name.
They will just put more and more regions in Tier 3, which is effectively the same thing.
I am quite prepared come mid November everywhere but Devon and Cornwall in Tier 3.
I think it takes away from the everyone in it together mindset that is important during a national crisis. Also just going into tier 3 probably means staying there for the winter, whereas with a few circuit breakers we might be able to keep most of the country in tier 1 most weeks.
I am very much of the opinion of a consistent countrywide set of restrictions that last the whole winter. Circuit breakers will either be 2 weeks every month or more likely months on end again, it won't just be for a single period over half term.
I suggested 2 week lockdowns every 2 months back in late summer and think that is still about the right frequency, but accept we might need to front load them initially to catch up.
Its air bridges all over again, every week the regions on the lists change...total mess.
Yup.
Nope. Air bridge was "can I fly" and the options were "yes" and "no". Here we have a three tier plan with 5 tiers. You think places being upgraded from L2 to L3 is funny? Wait until they go to Whitty's "Extremely High Risk" L4 - that's when they'll send Jenrick on to explain it.
I suppose the alternative is recalibrating the existing tiers overnight.
Tier 1 goes from medium to high Tier 2 goes from high to very high Tier 3 goes from very high to fuck me that's incredibly high.
But all the numbers stay the same so it's alright and not confusing.
Has anyone pointed out to Starmer et al, that a recommended "2-3 week circuit breaker" 2-3 weeks ago, would equate to a 5-6 week circuit breaker now, just to achieve the same base numbers?
And when they are recommending this circuit breaker, are they doing it with the insistence that it is lifted after 3 weeks, or will it be dependent on seeing something in the numbers that won't be apparent for 5-6 weeks.
And anyway, quite why a 2-3 week circuit breaker which basically amounts to shutting the pubs (and maybe restaurants) will make a blind bit of difference is unclear. It's hardly China. Or even the type of circuit breakers they did in South Korea early on.
It's a circuit breaker with about half a dozen bypass circuits, be they schools, work, public transport, hospital appointments, supermarket shopping... not to mention the unenforceable mixing in private homes that will go on regardless.
It's a scientist's idea that will have not nearly enough compliance in practice. It would be widely seen as a gimmick.
Laura Pidcock @LauraPidcock · 32m A ‘circuit break’ must include school closures (or back to lockdown provision). Anything less than that that will be inadequate to slow the spread of the virus. None of us want to be here. We are here because we have been relentlessly failed by government.
Everything about this shows how fucked everything is. Two political journalists replying to each other carrying each party's message.
Laura K using the ever popular unnamed source with an attack line approach which is so shit it should be illegal. If the government wants to attack Labour then they should have the courage to put a name to the line.
You'd think after she was utterly embarrassed over Big Dom and his shifting Barnard Castle story she'd have an iota of shame over continuing to uncritically parrot unnamed sources in the government
Boris cant do it this week or it looks like surrender. And he cant call it a circuit breaker. So middle of next week he will announce something like a "mini lockdown" which is essentially the SAGE/Starmer circuit breaker with a new name.
They will just put more and more regions in Tier 3, which is effectively the same thing.
I am quite prepared come mid November everywhere but Devon and Cornwall in Tier 3.
I think it takes away from the everyone in it together mindset that is important during a national crisis. Also just going into tier 3 probably means staying there for the winter, whereas with a few circuit breakers we might be able to keep most of the country in tier 1 most weeks.
I am very much of the opinion of a consistent countrywide set of restrictions that last the whole winter. Circuit breakers will either be 2 weeks every month or more likely months on end again, it won't just be for a single period over half term.
I suggested 2 week lockdowns every 2 months back in late summer and think that is still about the right frequency, but accept we might need to front load them initially to catch up.
I think due to the nature of covid and the politics it wouldn't work out like that. You do 2 weeks, cases haven't fallen yet, it would be a very brave politician to say, ok lads / lasses everybody back out into the world (and i think people would just hide away for another 2 weeks).
LauraK.? I thought Allegra Stratton was Johnson's "Minister for Propoganda".
Its a bit pathetic not to mention hugely hypocritical to complain about playing political games and do it through "unnamed govt sources" to your favourite journalist.
Ed Davey has missed the chance to differentiate from Labour.
Maybe, but he clearly doesn't think he should shoot for the anti-lockdown position, he isn't backing the government position, and would he really get noticed for adopting something similar but not quite the Labour position?
It's not easy, being LD leader.
I do share skepticism about whether 2 weeks would have an appreciable effect, but if present measures do not work, as they probably won't sufficiently, then it will surely end up being done even if a circuit breaker which then extends is no different to just going full lockdown again.
Kentucky and Indiana start reporting first, at about 11pm our time. The reason is that polls close in those states at 6pm local time.
I wonder how quickly Indiana will be called for Trump this time round. Last time it was fast. I expect KY to be instacalled no matter how badly he's doing.
Usually a candidate has to be about 10% ahead or more in the exit poll for the TV stations to call it immediately at the close of voting. It used to be less before the 2000 Gore/Bush debacle but they're more cautious these days.
IIRC they were exceptionally cautious in 2016 with a bunch of obvious states declared to close to call.
LOL. Spoke to a self employed lifetime Labour voter today.
He is appalled at the left's lockdown solution. Applauds the Tory right for accepting that we're going to have to live with this virus, and not shutdown the economy.
Unfortunately, and I think it is unfortunate, Starmer is right on the epidemic facts, that doesn't pay any attention to political Left or Right. If we don't take belated and rigorous action now we will see mass death and the economy will be shut down harder. Johnson may be weak and feckless, but he is reasonably intelligent. He knows this.
Nationwide lockdown (however short, and 2 weeks wouldn't be enough IMO) is a nonsense when large parts of the country have almost no cases....
To have serious effect on numbers, I think, from what we saw earlier in the epidemic, you need much more than 2 weeks.
In all the countries, around the world, that used lockdowns, what is the shortest period of time before a serious dent was made in the rising numbers? I am talking about seen, after the fact - forget about lagging indicators.
Anybody who thinks it would end up just being 2 weeks, I have a bridge to sell you.
If Starmer had said actually I think we need 2 months, I would have more respect for that opinion.
Yes, I actually could get on board with 2 months coupled with a serious look at measures for a proper isolation system. 2 weeks is not going to do anything.
Now in agreement with me Max, thanks for getting onside buddy.
Boris cant do it this week or it looks like surrender. And he cant call it a circuit breaker. So middle of next week he will announce something like a "mini lockdown" which is essentially the SAGE/Starmer circuit breaker with a new name.
They will just put more and more regions in Tier 3, which is effectively the same thing.
I am quite prepared come mid November everywhere but Devon and Cornwall in Tier 3.
I think it takes away from the everyone in it together mindset that is important during a national crisis. Also just going into tier 3 probably means staying there for the winter, whereas with a few circuit breakers we might be able to keep most of the country in tier 1 most weeks.
I am very much of the opinion of a consistent countrywide set of restrictions that last the whole winter. Circuit breakers will either be 2 weeks every month or more likely months on end again, it won't just be for a single period over half term.
I suggested 2 week lockdowns every 2 months back in late summer and think that is still about the right frequency, but accept we might need to front load them initially to catch up.
I think due to the nature of covid and the politics it wouldn't work out like that. You do 2 weeks, cases haven't fallen yet, it would be a very brave politician to say, ok lads / lasses everybody back out into the world (and i think people would just hide away for another 2 weeks).
Politicians who lead wouldnt have a problem explaining it. No issue for Blair or Thatcher, and Cameron could probably have done it. If Johnson wants to be remembered well he needs to step up.
Laura Pidcock @LauraPidcock · 32m A ‘circuit break’ must include school closures (or back to lockdown provision). Anything less than that that will be inadequate to slow the spread of the virus. None of us want to be here. We are here because we have been relentlessly failed by government.
I think polls close early, so I recall not too far different to a UK GE night, though obviously later for the West Coast. I remember East Coast results out while West Coast polls were still open.
And is there a big UK-style polls-have-closed-exit-poll-forecast that you can see, then go to bed, wake up and see that that was basically what happened anyway?
Ooh, the best bit is the in play betting. PB is way ahead of the curve and I did a reverse ferret very successfully in 2016, though @rcs1000 famously called it early on for Hillary. I blame it on too much Radiohead.
🙂
I was the first to call it for Hillary... and then the first (about fifteen minutes later) to call it for Trump!
Its air bridges all over again, every week the regions on the lists change...total mess.
Yup.
Nope. Air bridge was "can I fly" and the options were "yes" and "no". Here we have a three tier plan with 5 tiers. You think places being upgraded from L2 to L3 is funny? Wait until they go to Whitty's "Extremely High Risk" L4 - that's when they'll send Jenrick on to explain it.
I suppose the alternative is recalibrating the existing tiers overnight.
Tier 1 goes from medium to high Tier 2 goes from high to very high Tier 3 goes from very high to fuck me that's incredibly high.
But all the numbers stay the same so it's alright and not confusing.
The Three Tier Plan: Tier 0: Low (has to exist, can't go from Medium to nothing) Tier 1: Medium Tier 2: High Tier 3: Very High Tier 4: Extremely High (already referred to by Whitty)
So 5 tiers. And thats before we get into the local variations on the 3/5 tiers based on whining from local MPs / mayors
Laura Pidcock @LauraPidcock · 32m A ‘circuit break’ must include school closures (or back to lockdown provision). Anything less than that that will be inadequate to slow the spread of the virus. None of us want to be here. We are here because we have been relentlessly failed by government.
An ex MP best forgotten about, why expect her to have helpful answers in the first place?
The bit about circuit breaks having to include schools is, I am sad to say, true. Not often Laura Pidcock has something useful to contribute but she is correct here. From here all the futures look like a choice between worst and worster.
I think polls close early, so I recall not too far different to a UK GE night, though obviously later for the West Coast. I remember East Coast results out while West Coast polls were still open.
And is there a big UK-style polls-have-closed-exit-poll-forecast that you can see, then go to bed, wake up and see that that was basically what happened anyway?
Ooh, the best bit is the in play betting. PB is way ahead of the curve and I did a reverse ferret very successfully in 2016, though @rcs1000 famously called it early on for Hillary. I blame it on too much Radiohead.
🙂
I was the first to call it for Hillary... and then the first (about fifteen minutes later) to call it for Trump!
The art of the reverse ferret, I did too, and turned my book green as a result!
LauraK.? I thought Allegra Stratton was Johnson's "Minister for Propoganda".
Its a bit pathetic not to mention hugely hypocritical to complain about playing political games and do it through "unnamed govt sources" to your favourite journalist.
There may well be a place for unnamed sources on occasion, but the way they are usually deployed any such reports shoudl just be ignored. If it is an attack on your opponent then come out and say it upfront, why hide it? And if it is an attack on your own side you can get away with it once maybe, but after that have some guts and stand by your comments.
It is abjectly pitiful that a new government policy - involving complex new rules that need communicating to millions of people - can be launched on a Monday afternoon, and by Tuesday afternoon the government is already leaking that it will meet on Wednesday to consider major changes to it.
Did anyone comment/notice Gavin williamson's laughable announcement a couple of days ago to "proceed with exams", but with a 3 week delay? What the hell was that all about?
Johnson is fumbling around, now Keir's laid out his plan, every day the cases get worse people will say "why didn't we follow Keir's plan?"
I get your excitement given Sir Kier Cardboard's recent inaction. But I don't care about the party political stuff at the moment, whether Tory or Labour win or lose. We need consensus. Yes its Shagger's fault that there's no prospect of that, but SKS could stay above the frey
Laura K using the ever popular unnamed source with an attack line approach which is so shit it should be illegal. If the government wants to attack Labour then they should have the courage to put a name to the line.
You'd think after she was utterly embarrassed over Big Dom and his shifting Barnard Castle story she'd have an iota of shame over continuing to uncritically parrot unnamed sources in the government
Did anyone comment/notice Gavin williamson's laughable announcement a couple of days ago to "proceed with exams", but with a 3 week delay? What the hell was that all about?
Cant he join Pidcock somewhere never to be heard of again?
Kentucky and Indiana start reporting first, at about 11pm our time. The reason is that polls close in those states at 6pm local time.
I wonder how quickly Indiana will be called for Trump this time round. Last time it was fast. I expect KY to be instacalled no matter how badly he's doing.
538 are projecting an 11.3% lead for Trump in Indiana. That would be called pretty quickly I would think.
Though Obama did win there in 2008.
Look at the margins in the Midwest in 2008, and you can see the massive change there has been since. IA +9.5, MI +16.5, MN +10, OH +5, PA +10, WI +14 - all on a national lead of +7.2
It's pointless to say that Obama won IN by +1, when you look at how far the Midwest has moved as a whole away from the Democrats.
Biden could win the national vote by 15 points and he probably still wouldn't win Indiana.
LOL. Spoke to a self employed lifetime Labour voter today.
He is appalled at the left's lockdown solution. Applauds the Tory right for accepting that we're going to have to live with this virus, and not shutdown the economy.
Unfortunately, and I think it is unfortunate, Starmer is right on the epidemic facts, that doesn't pay any attention to political Left or Right. If we don't take belated and rigorous action now we will see mass death and the economy will be shut down harder. Johnson may be weak and feckless, but he is reasonably intelligent. He knows this.
Nationwide lockdown (however short, and 2 weeks wouldn't be enough IMO) is a nonsense when large parts of the country have almost no cases....
To have serious effect on numbers, I think, from what we saw earlier in the epidemic, you need much more than 2 weeks.
In all the countries, around the world, that used lockdowns, what is the shortest period of time before a serious dent was made in the rising numbers? I am talking about seen, after the fact - forget about lagging indicators.
Anybody who thinks it would end up just being 2 weeks, I have a bridge to sell you.
If Starmer had said actually I think we need 2 months, I would have more respect for that opinion.
Yes, I actually could get on board with 2 months coupled with a serious look at measures for a proper isolation system. 2 weeks is not going to do anything.
Now in agreement with me Max, thanks for getting onside buddy.
But that's not what is being proposed, it's two weeks of business destroying lockdown for nothing which will be extended to 2 months for nothing and at the end of it people who test positive still won't isolate just the same as today. Starmer is proposing nothing to solve the actual problem of 4 in 5 people who test positive not isolating.
So no, I'm not on board. Starmer is useless and anyone who supports this is cheering as we watch tens of thousands of businesses go to the wall and millions of people get put into the dole queue.
Starmer has failed to recognise the problem and is proposing a solution that will be worse than doing nothing. It's political game playing with a national crisis and I find it despicable.
I think polls close early, so I recall not too far different to a UK GE night, though obviously later for the West Coast. I remember East Coast results out while West Coast polls were still open.
And is there a big UK-style polls-have-closed-exit-poll-forecast that you can see, then go to bed, wake up and see that that was basically what happened anyway?
Nope. It's all organised by State, the results come in piecemeal and the media companies fight each other to 'call' each state and the total EC votes based purely on partial results. The full results take several weeks to be certified, once absentee and postal votes are counted. It's very unlikely this year, that there will be a result on the night, given the apparent partisan nature of voting methods.
Florida, NC, AZ. If 2 of those 3 are called for Biden on the night, plus a national swing to him cf 2016 is evident, that's game over.
John Roberts owns one of the worst Supreme Court decisions of all time in Shelby County vs Holder. Today I learnt he has basically spent his whole life trying to dismantle voting rights in America and suddenly that makes his absolute bullshit decision in 2013 make sense.
Its air bridges all over again, every week the regions on the lists change...total mess.
Yup.
Nope. Air bridge was "can I fly" and the options were "yes" and "no". Here we have a three tier plan with 5 tiers. You think places being upgraded from L2 to L3 is funny? Wait until they go to Whitty's "Extremely High Risk" L4 - that's when they'll send Jenrick on to explain it.
I suppose the alternative is recalibrating the existing tiers overnight.
Tier 1 goes from medium to high Tier 2 goes from high to very high Tier 3 goes from very high to fuck me that's incredibly high.
But all the numbers stay the same so it's alright and not confusing.
The Three Tier Plan: Tier 0: Low (has to exist, can't go from Medium to nothing) Tier 1: Medium Tier 2: High Tier 3: Very High Tier 4: Extremely High (already referred to by Whitty)
So 5 tiers. And thats before we get into the local variations on the 3/5 tiers based on whining from local MPs / mayors
Tier 0 doesn't exist and doesn't have to exist. There is no "nothing" in this country, nor any "low" in this country. That is the point.
I note the graphic clearly believes Trump has been more successful than even he thinks, as it declares they need to 'Keep America Great', whilst he is still trying to 'Make America Great Again'. He just needs to believe in himself more,
I think polls close early, so I recall not too far different to a UK GE night, though obviously later for the West Coast. I remember East Coast results out while West Coast polls were still open.
And is there a big UK-style polls-have-closed-exit-poll-forecast that you can see, then go to bed, wake up and see that that was basically what happened anyway?
Ooh, the best bit is the in play betting. PB is way ahead of the curve and I did a reverse ferret very successfully in 2016, though @rcs1000 famously called it early on for Hillary. I blame it on too much Radiohead.
🙂
I was the first to call it for Hillary... and then the first (about fifteen minutes later) to call it for Trump!
The art of the reverse ferret, I did too, and turned my book green as a result!
Laura K using the ever popular unnamed source with an attack line approach which is so shit it should be illegal. If the government wants to attack Labour then they should have the courage to put a name to the line.
You'd think after she was utterly embarrassed over Big Dom and his shifting Barnard Castle story she'd have an iota of shame over continuing to uncritically parrot unnamed sources in the government
I note the graphic clearly believes Trump has been more successful than even he thinks, as it declares they need to 'Keep America Great', whilst he is still trying to 'Make America Great Again'. He just needs to believe in himself more,
That was the 2016 slogan. And they found that Make America Great Again Again didn't quite work. Hence Keep America Great.
That was about a specificities trial of saliva tests.
What is interesting in that story is the lack of why.
Apparently they had some problems finding volunteers.. undefined....
Apparently "its part in Operation Moonshot had been paused due to a lack of clarity over the accuracy of the saliva testing system." - according to a politician who'd been told by council officials.
I smell systemic resistance - maybe even herd immunity. From things they don't like... but why?
It is abjectly pitiful that a new government policy - involving complex new rules that need communicating to millions of people - can be launched on a Monday afternoon, and by Tuesday afternoon the government is already leaking that it will meet on Wednesday to consider major changes to it.
Well absolutely. Regardless of the merits or otherwise of the circuit breaker idea, the idea of any policy at the moment should be to get ahead of the curve. If you aren't confident that regulations imposed will allow that, and aren't prepared to wait a few weeks to find out, then why bother in the first place. It's like all this stuff about London about to move up a tier. Based (if true) on an inevitable breach of the "100 cases per 100,000" barrier by Friday. As if somehow this is a magic number that means anything.
Sky saying AstraZenica vaccine trial results are due "any day".
I really hope something good comes from this soon, we could all do with some good news. Hope it doesn't affect the election Stateside though.
I worry that Boris saying "no vaccine" today to the '22 is a very bad sign that this vaccine is either not safe or doesn't have high enough efficacy to warrant wide roll out.
Its air bridges all over again, every week the regions on the lists change...total mess.
Yup.
Nope. Air bridge was "can I fly" and the options were "yes" and "no". Here we have a three tier plan with 5 tiers. You think places being upgraded from L2 to L3 is funny? Wait until they go to Whitty's "Extremely High Risk" L4 - that's when they'll send Jenrick on to explain it.
I suppose the alternative is recalibrating the existing tiers overnight.
Tier 1 goes from medium to high Tier 2 goes from high to very high Tier 3 goes from very high to fuck me that's incredibly high.
But all the numbers stay the same so it's alright and not confusing.
The Three Tier Plan: Tier 0: Low (has to exist, can't go from Medium to nothing) Tier 1: Medium Tier 2: High Tier 3: Very High Tier 4: Extremely High (already referred to by Whitty)
So 5 tiers. And thats before we get into the local variations on the 3/5 tiers based on whining from local MPs / mayors
Tier 0 doesn't exist and doesn't have to exist. There is no "nothing" in this country, nor any "low" in this country. That is the point.
Nor does Tier 4 exist, its Tier 3.
Other than that, great remark. 🙄
Tier 0 would simply be a name - rather a good one for headline writers - for a return to normality, with no special laws covering Covid 19. I don't think we can begin to guess what year Tier 0 would arrive in any part or every park of the England or the UK. Obvs. not 2020. I think obviously not 2021. A glimmer of a chance in 2022 anyone?
One more speculation: What will be the high point of the national debt - now just over £2 tn. What about £3.1 tn?
I note the graphic clearly believes Trump has been more successful than even he thinks, as it declares they need to 'Keep America Great', whilst he is still trying to 'Make America Great Again'. He just needs to believe in himself more,
That was the 2016 slogan. And they found that Make America Great Again Again didn't quite work. Hence Keep America Great.
Sky saying AstraZenica vaccine trial results are due "any day".
I really hope something good comes from this soon, we could all do with some good news. Hope it doesn't affect the election Stateside though.
I thought Johnson had hosed down the idea of imminent vaccines, unless it was just a wizard wheeze to draw Starmer out and then put Starmer straight back in his box, once and for all.
What is the direction of travel in Missouri and West Virgina since 2016?
Trump won West Virginia by 42 points and Missouri by 18 points in 2016. The former in terms of that current poll is the real shocker with Trump ahead by 14 points .
Sky saying AstraZenica vaccine trial results are due "any day".
I really hope something good comes from this soon, we could all do with some good news. Hope it doesn't affect the election Stateside though.
I worry that Boris saying "no vaccine" today to the '22 is a very bad sign that this vaccine is either not safe or doesn't have high enough efficacy to warrant wide roll out.
If I had to guess, its the efficacy isn't high enough, or even shown to only reduce effects of COVID, but not stop infection or transmission.
Interesting piece on C4 news, apparently hard times in the Cocaine industry from production to distribution.
The virus doing what the War on Drugs could not...
Silver lining!
I missed the debate about drug policy the other day. I'm anti liberalisation. My middle class mates who like to partake in a middle class way (and not think about all the associated crime and destitution) are the most fervent liberalisers.
Never seen the attraction. Booze, OTOH....
I don't see the point in partaking it. Booze and caffeine are my only drugs of choice.
But prohibition has failed. Education is working on tobacco.
We should deal with illicit drugs like tobacco. Tax and education, but free will. If people want to take cocaine better they buy it from a supermarket tobacco counter, or Boots, than from a criminal gang.
I'd make a distinction between Booze and Baccy. Alcohol is closer to "drugs" because in excess it both wrecks the body AND it's mind bending. When you're high on it you often hurt others. Tobacco is a substance that in the main ruins one's own physical health.
Did anyone comment/notice Gavin williamson's laughable announcement a couple of days ago to "proceed with exams", but with a 3 week delay? What the hell was that all about?
What is the direction of travel in Missouri and West Virgina since 2016?
Trump won West Virginia by 42 points and Missouri by 18 points in 2016. The former in terms of that current poll is the real shocker with Trump ahead by 14 points .
Sky saying AstraZenica vaccine trial results are due "any day".
I really hope something good comes from this soon, we could all do with some good news. Hope it doesn't affect the election Stateside though.
I worry that Boris saying "no vaccine" today to the '22 is a very bad sign that this vaccine is either not safe or doesn't have high enough efficacy to warrant wide roll out.
If I had to guess, its the efficacy isn't high enough, or even shown to only reduce effects of COVID, but not stop infection or transmission.
Reducing the effects is badly needed though lol, stop people getting long covid and err dieing. People can cope with the flu.
I note the graphic clearly believes Trump has been more successful than even he thinks, as it declares they need to 'Keep America Great', whilst he is still trying to 'Make America Great Again'. He just needs to believe in himself more,
That was the 2016 slogan. And they found that Make America Great Again Again didn't quite work. Hence Keep America Great.
But Trump is still using MAGA not KAG
Ah, this story might explain the reversion to MAGA:
LOL. Spoke to a self employed lifetime Labour voter today.
He is appalled at the left's lockdown solution. Applauds the Tory right for accepting that we're going to have to live with this virus, and not shutdown the economy.
Unfortunately, and I think it is unfortunate, Starmer is right on the epidemic facts, that doesn't pay any attention to political Left or Right. If we don't take belated and rigorous action now we will see mass death and the economy will be shut down harder. Johnson may be weak and feckless, but he is reasonably intelligent. He knows this.
Nationwide lockdown (however short, and 2 weeks wouldn't be enough IMO) is a nonsense when large parts of the country have almost no cases....
To have serious effect on numbers, I think, from what we saw earlier in the epidemic, you need much more than 2 weeks.
In all the countries, around the world, that used lockdowns, what is the shortest period of time before a serious dent was made in the rising numbers? I am talking about seen, after the fact - forget about lagging indicators.
Anybody who thinks it would end up just being 2 weeks, I have a bridge to sell you.
If Starmer had said actually I think we need 2 months, I would have more respect for that opinion.
Yes, I actually could get on board with 2 months coupled with a serious look at measures for a proper isolation system. 2 weeks is not going to do anything.
Now in agreement with me Max, thanks for getting onside buddy.
But that's not what is being proposed, it's two weeks of business destroying lockdown for nothing which will be extended to 2 months for nothing and at the end of it people who test positive still won't isolate just the same as today. Starmer is proposing nothing to solve the actual problem of 4 in 5 people who test positive not isolating.
So no, I'm not on board. Starmer is useless and anyone who supports this is cheering as we watch tens of thousands of businesses go to the wall and millions of people get put into the dole queue.
Starmer has failed to recognise the problem and is proposing a solution that will be worse than doing nothing. It's political game playing with a national crisis and I find it despicable.
It's being purely because it can be spun as him "listening to the scientists" whilst Johnson is not. Even though he doesn't define what the circuit breaker actually is, doesn't understand that it was proposed 2 weeks ago and the effect would be different now, and isn't clear whether it would actually be a short circuit breaker, or could extend into something more. And doesn't state what Government financial support will be needed to accompany it. Noting that all this would require further delay to rewrite legislation all over again.
Sky saying AstraZenica vaccine trial results are due "any day".
I really hope something good comes from this soon, we could all do with some good news. Hope it doesn't affect the election Stateside though.
I worry that Boris saying "no vaccine" today to the '22 is a very bad sign that this vaccine is either not safe or doesn't have high enough efficacy to warrant wide roll out.
Isn't the data still double-blinded? Will even he have any news yet?
I think it might more be simply trying to temper expectations so that if there is bad news its not too much of a let down, plus if people take things more seriously now that's good right now anyway. OTOH if there's good news then all the better.
It's not even close to possible to judge pricing in major elections - the data where independent is so sparse as to be meaningless. The idea that major arbitrage opportunities exist is poppycock too.
It is abjectly pitiful that a new government policy - involving complex new rules that need communicating to millions of people - can be launched on a Monday afternoon, and by Tuesday afternoon the government is already leaking that it will meet on Wednesday to consider major changes to it.
Well absolutely. Regardless of the merits or otherwise of the circuit breaker idea, the idea of any policy at the moment should be to get ahead of the curve. If you aren't confident that regulations imposed will allow that, and aren't prepared to wait a few weeks to find out, then why bother in the first place. It's like all this stuff about London about to move up a tier. Based (if true) on an inevitable breach of the "100 cases per 100,000" barrier by Friday. As if somehow this is a magic number that means anything.
Yes it's exactly like that rubbish red list measure which put a huge lack of certainty over travel. We had months to come up with an arrival quarantine and test system and did nothing. I say that as someone who went overseas three times when we were allowed to do so, we still would have gone (well maybe not to Basel to visit the mother in law) had we needed to pay £500-700 for 5 days of quarantine and a test each on the way back and I think the certainty would actually have helped because there would be no travel restrictions in terms of destinations and everyone would be under the same rules on the way back.
Just as we had months to come up with a way to get people to isolate.
In both cases we did nothing and it's come back and will destroy the economy.
Sky saying AstraZenica vaccine trial results are due "any day".
I really hope something good comes from this soon, we could all do with some good news. Hope it doesn't affect the election Stateside though.
I worry that Boris saying "no vaccine" today to the '22 is a very bad sign that this vaccine is either not safe or doesn't have high enough efficacy to warrant wide roll out.
Isn't the data still double-blinded? Will even he have any news yet?
I think it might more be simply trying to temper expectations so that if there is bad news its not too much of a let down, plus if people take things more seriously now that's good right now anyway. OTOH if there's good news then all the better.
If they will announce any day, they will have had the data, done the math, and written the paper. It will be just double checking everything.
That is presuming Sky source is correct (whoever it is).
What is the direction of travel in Missouri and West Virgina since 2016?
Trump won West Virginia by 42 points and Missouri by 18 points in 2016. The former in terms of that current poll is the real shocker with Trump ahead by 14 points .
Don't forget that WV was the last State in the South to convert from Dem to GOP, and the last Dem Governor of WV is still one of its Senators.
So the key point here is that local politicians in areas of high infection are desparate to see national restrictions, so it doesn’t look like their high-incidence areas are being singled out. Meanwhile, more than half the country lives in areas of almost no infection at all.
Sky saying AstraZenica vaccine trial results are due "any day".
I really hope something good comes from this soon, we could all do with some good news. Hope it doesn't affect the election Stateside though.
I worry that Boris saying "no vaccine" today to the '22 is a very bad sign that this vaccine is either not safe or doesn't have high enough efficacy to warrant wide roll out.
Isn't the data still double-blinded? Will even he have any news yet?
I think it might more be simply trying to temper expectations so that if there is bad news its not too much of a let down, plus if people take things more seriously now that's good right now anyway. OTOH if there's good news then all the better.
If initial results are due then the data will already be known by a handful of people at Oxford, AZ and the top levels of the government.
Sky saying AstraZenica vaccine trial results are due "any day".
I really hope something good comes from this soon, we could all do with some good news. Hope it doesn't affect the election Stateside though.
I worry that Boris saying "no vaccine" today to the '22 is a very bad sign that this vaccine is either not safe or doesn't have high enough efficacy to warrant wide roll out.
Isn't the data still double-blinded? Will even he have any news yet?
I think it might more be simply trying to temper expectations so that if there is bad news its not too much of a let down, plus if people take things more seriously now that's good right now anyway. OTOH if there's good news then all the better.
If initial results are due then the data will already be known by a handful of people at Oxford, AZ and the top levels of the government.
Worst result could be they are inconclusive.....we need to run another Phase III trial.
That was about a specificities trial of saliva tests.
What is interesting in that story is the lack of why.
Apparently they had some problems finding volunteers.. undefined....
Apparently "its part in Operation Moonshot had been paused due to a lack of clarity over the accuracy of the saliva testing system." - according to a politician who'd been told by council officials.
I smell systemic resistance - maybe even herd immunity. From things they don't like... but why?
I actually did a saliva test today at Southampton University, just spat in a pot, I had the result 8 hours later. They are doing it for all staff and contractors working at the UNI on a weekly basis.
Comments
I have a terrible foreboding about the sequel. Part One was managed very well for the first couple of months. This time it will inevitably be total chaos.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/2020_elections_senate_map_no_toss_ups.html
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316035472943206403?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1316032401345335296?s=20
Differentiation from Labour is easy. Just vote for the proposition. Or vote against it.
Tier 1 goes from medium to high
Tier 2 goes from high to very high
Tier 3 goes from very high to fuck me that's incredibly high.
But all the numbers stay the same so it's alright and not confusing.
https://youtu.be/BN9edpdCH7c
And when they are recommending this circuit breaker, are they doing it with the insistence that it is lifted after 3 weeks, or will it be dependent on seeing something in the numbers that won't be apparent for 5-6 weeks.
And anyway, quite why a 2-3 week circuit breaker which basically amounts to shutting the pubs (and maybe restaurants) will make a blind bit of difference is unclear. It's hardly China. Or even the type of circuit breakers they did in South Korea early on.
It's a circuit breaker with about half a dozen bypass circuits, be they schools, work, public transport, hospital appointments, supermarket shopping... not to mention the unenforceable mixing in private homes that will go on regardless.
It's a scientist's idea that will have not nearly enough compliance in practice. It would be widely seen as a gimmick.
Nellie The Elephant has tested positive for Covid-19.
When asked where she got it from, she replied with 'Trump, Trump, Trump.'
Everything about this shows how fucked everything is. Two political journalists replying to each other carrying each party's message.
Laura K using the ever popular unnamed source with an attack line approach which is so shit it should be illegal. If the government wants to attack Labour then they should have the courage to put a name to the line.
You'd think after she was utterly embarrassed over Big Dom and his shifting Barnard Castle story she'd have an iota of shame over continuing to uncritically parrot unnamed sources in the government
https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1316094387223490560
It's not easy, being LD leader.
I do share skepticism about whether 2 weeks would have an appreciable effect, but if present measures do not work, as they probably won't sufficiently, then it will surely end up being done even if a circuit breaker which then extends is no different to just going full lockdown again.
I think we might be heading for binary "values" general elections in England soon - Republicans (Con/BXP/Reclaim) vs Democrats (Lab/LD/Green).
Johnson is fumbling around, now Keir's laid out his plan, every day the cases get worse people will say "why didn't we follow Keir's plan?"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/10/13/bosses-tell-sunak-solve-57bn-tube-funding-crisis/
Operation Moonshot might be a load of horseshit.
https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1316099444916576256
Tier 0: Low (has to exist, can't go from Medium to nothing)
Tier 1: Medium
Tier 2: High
Tier 3: Very High
Tier 4: Extremely High (already referred to by Whitty)
So 5 tiers. And thats before we get into the local variations on the 3/5 tiers based on whining from local MPs / mayors
From here all the futures look like a choice between worst and worster.
The line is "shameless opportunist", right?
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1316082940468756481?s=19
It's pointless to say that Obama won IN by +1, when you look at how far the Midwest has moved as a whole away from the Democrats.
Biden could win the national vote by 15 points and he probably still wouldn't win Indiana.
Sounds impressive. Wonder what the queue is like.
https://twitter.com/ylelkes/status/1316081218639867904
So no, I'm not on board. Starmer is useless and anyone who supports this is cheering as we watch tens of thousands of businesses go to the wall and millions of people get put into the dole queue.
Starmer has failed to recognise the problem and is proposing a solution that will be worse than doing nothing. It's political game playing with a national crisis and I find it despicable.
https://www.vox.com/21211880/supreme-court-chief-justice-john-roberts-voting-rights-act-election-2020
Nor does Tier 4 exist, its Tier 3.
Other than that, great remark. 🙄
I really hope something good comes from this soon, we could all do with some good news. Hope it doesn't affect the election Stateside though.
What is interesting in that story is the lack of why.
Apparently they had some problems finding volunteers.. undefined....
Apparently "its part in Operation Moonshot had been paused due to a lack of clarity over the accuracy of the saliva testing system." - according to a politician who'd been told by council officials.
I smell systemic resistance - maybe even herd immunity. From things they don't like... but why?
One more speculation: What will be the high point of the national debt - now just over £2 tn. What about £3.1 tn?
This isn't as positive news though,
Johnson & Johnson Covid vaccine trial paused due to ill volunteer
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54521527
Let's wait and see anyway.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-keep-america-great-website-trump-broken-promises/
I think it might more be simply trying to temper expectations so that if there is bad news its not too much of a let down, plus if people take things more seriously now that's good right now anyway. OTOH if there's good news then all the better.
It's not even close to possible to judge pricing in major elections - the data where independent is so sparse as to be meaningless. The idea that major arbitrage opportunities exist is poppycock too.
Idiots.
Just as we had months to come up with a way to get people to isolate.
In both cases we did nothing and it's come back and will destroy the economy.
That is presuming Sky source is correct (whoever it is).
In related news, water is wet, gravity is the law and there's a film at 11