Johnson gets negative satisfaction ratings from Tory party members – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Do we have data as to how many infected school pupils are students are symptomatic / need medical attention / hospitalised ?
I've read that up to 90% of infected students are asymptomatic.0 -
Or he's bullshitting?Foxy said:
If he feels better than 20 years ago, that is the steroid talking.williamglenn said:He's coming out.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1313186529058136070
No normal person feels better mid viral infection.1 -
So you are saying that in six weeks he will be gone to meet his maker?RochdalePioneers said:He Is Risen!
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Would be very out of character...Philip_Thompson said:
Or he's bullshitting?Foxy said:
If he feels better than 20 years ago, that is the steroid talking.williamglenn said:He's coming out.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1313186529058136070
No normal person feels better mid viral infection.0 -
Everything's okay, Poiriot is just starting on ITV4.1
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No it's a so far mild case that he's milking to the max. That is what's happening.rottenborough said:
Which is why i have been suspicious about whether he really has it. It is a stunt to turn over the card table when he knows he has lost.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Then venerated for 2000 years? I'd rather not.Foxy said:
So you are saying that in six weeks he will be gone to meet his maker?RochdalePioneers said:He Is Risen!
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You need to know your enemy.kle4 said:
The same reason people on the left might follow paranoid conspiracy right wingers - it's hilarious?kinabalu said:
How come you are so immersed in ultra woke lefty twitter?FrancisUrquhart said:
Social media outrage bus has been full on racist, its racist, made by a racist, racist company, they need to be sacked for being a racist, they know nothing about the black community, they need to go on an education course to learn about the black community....MaxPB said:
He called it that. PureGym probably thought they were in the clear with the wokerati because of that but didn't account for faux offence taken by liberal whites on behalf of other races.kinabalu said:
Why is that hilarious? Please explain.MaxPB said:
What's hilarious about it is that it was a black guy who came up with the workout routine. 😆kinabalu said:Talk about not quite "getting" the historical weight of anti-black racism -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-54419760
Oh its a black employee of a franchise, who is just a numpty not to realise how it looks...
I don't care that he is black, sack him for not knowing about black history....0 -
Not so long ago Delaware was seen as a bellweather state! Unlikely to be so this year.stodge said:
Well, that's the C- rated Trafalgar so perhaps the truism a broken clock is right twice a day can apply to pollsters as well.HYUFD said:
Ohio is of course the key swing state, the only state to have voted for the winner in every Presidential election since 1960.TimT said:If Trump is up by just 4 in Ohio in a Trafalgar Group poll, he is in deep shit:
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/oh-pres-1020/
Now that could change this year and Biden could win the Electoral College with Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin or 2 of those plus Arizona but he would be the first candidate to win the Presidency having lost Ohio since Kennedy.
So I would say Trump being up by 4% in Ohio is good news for the President in the sense he is unlikely to lose by a landslide but bad news for the President in the sense it is still not enough for him to win
With their in-built Republican bias a 4-point for Trump in a state he won by 8 last time suggests a 2% swing to Biden and a national lead of 6 points.
The A+ New York Times/Siena pollster puts Biden 8 ahead in Arizona:
https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/az100120-crosstabs/a77605c32cd8f31e/full.pdf
The Senate battle looks to be turning against McSally with Kelly establishing a solid lead.
Delaware is no one's idea of a battleground state. In 2016, Clinton won by 12 and a poll by the University of Delaware (albeit an old poll with sampling with 21/9 to 27/9) has Biden up by 21 s0o a 4.5% swing to the Democrats suggesting a double digit national lead.0 -
Or. He's lying.Foxy said:
If he feels better than 20 years ago, that is the steroid talking.williamglenn said:He's coming out.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1313186529058136070
No normal person feels better mid viral infection.1 -
I'm more worried about the other possible mental health affects of the drugs they gave him.....Foxy said:
If he feels better than 20 years ago, that is the steroid talking.williamglenn said:He's coming out.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1313186529058136070
No normal person feels better mid viral infection.0 -
And as much to the point, if he hadn't had it then he must be batsh*t crazy to be heading back to the White House which is currently a hotbed of coronavirus.Floater said:
Well - he would be nearly the only one in the Whitehouse to dodge that bullet......rottenborough said:
Which is why i have been suspicious about whether he really has it. It is a stunt to turn over the card table when he knows he has lost.TheScreamingEagles said:
Ah, so he probably hasn't had it...0 -
Betfair has arisen.....Praise the Lord!0
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Evening0
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Oh dear. Not great.Floater said:
ooh - lets call for reparations...........Andy_JS said:
He could redeem himself by explaining it only refers to white slavery, ie. white people being made slaves in Morocco, etc.MaxPB said:
He called it that. PureGym probably thought they were in the clear with the wokerati because of that but didn't account for faux offence taken by liberal whites on behalf of other races.kinabalu said:
Why is that hilarious? Please explain.MaxPB said:
What's hilarious about it is that it was a black guy who came up with the workout routine. 😆kinabalu said:Talk about not quite "getting" the historical weight of anti-black racism -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-544197600 -
They certainly won’t get the two Regeneron antibodies for quite some time, even if they could afford to pay.Philip_Thompson said:
Utterly irresponsible.Big_G_NorthWales said:
So everyone else who catches COVID will have access to the same level of treatment as he got? There won't be any more US deaths?
Preposterously irresponsible.0 -
Culture warriors need a battlefield. It's like the sandpit at the local park. I've just started ignoring them.kle4 said:
The same reason people on the left might follow paranoid conspiracy right wingers - it's hilarious?kinabalu said:
How come you are so immersed in ultra woke lefty twitter?FrancisUrquhart said:
Social media outrage bus has been full on racist, its racist, made by a racist, racist company, they need to be sacked for being a racist, they know nothing about the black community, they need to go on an education course to learn about the black community....MaxPB said:
He called it that. PureGym probably thought they were in the clear with the wokerati because of that but didn't account for faux offence taken by liberal whites on behalf of other races.kinabalu said:
Why is that hilarious? Please explain.MaxPB said:
What's hilarious about it is that it was a black guy who came up with the workout routine. 😆kinabalu said:Talk about not quite "getting" the historical weight of anti-black racism -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-54419760
Oh its a black employee of a franchise, who is just a numpty not to realise how it looks...
I don't care that he is black, sack him for not knowing about black history....0 -
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Let's try it the other way - the ghost of 2016 still stalks the political land.MrEd said:
The thing which I can't get my head round is, if Trump is in so much trouble, why it is not being picked up more in tales from within his political campaign. No one wants to be associated with a loser. We have also had various stories about GOP Senators such as McNally, Tillis, Collins and Graham being in trouble, suggesting Republican sources are happy to talk to the press, but - outside those in the Republican party who don't like Trump - few who are saying that Trump's campaign is floundering.
If anything, where Trump was visiting before his illness, suggested he was thinking of expanding the map, including places such as MN, NV and NH. We have also had stories from within the Democratic camp suggesting they are having trouble motivating voters in Wisconsin and Latinos in Florida.
Now that may be classic bullsh1tting and projecting strength from Trump and it may be the polls are absolutely spot on (the ones with the big Biden leads) but it feels odd.
There are, I suspect, many who are secretly terrified that somehow, despite the majority of polls showing otherwise, Trump and his supporters will conjure victory from the jaws of defeat and those who win have long memories and won't forget those who were defeatist.
There is a clear passion and enthusiasm among Trump's supporters - that is evident. He is almost worshipped by his supporters but there were those who backed Walter Mondale in 1984 or the Conservatives in 1997 and believed in them but that didn't stop them being trounced. Sometimes, it's the most faithful who are the most blind. Yes, Trump evokes that in his supporters - the problem is there aren't as many as there were.
Among Democrats there can be no complacency, no confidence in success. Just as there were those Labour activists who simply could not believe how well they were doing in 1997, there are doubtless Democrats who see every nuance of a wobble in Wisconsin or hesitation among Hispanics and magnify those into election-losing and remember the defeat of 2016 and cannot bring themselves to believe in victory. It's all about caution ,fighting for every vote in the battleground states.
Biden doesn't elicit the same enthusiasm as Trump but he doesn't need to - he just needs people to vote for him or against Trump - in the end, it won't matter.
Sometimes, the polls are right - it's just those reading them who are wrong.4 -
If he’s out, good. He can face the electors and, with luck, lose the election.2
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And looking deepest healthiest orange again. He is DA MAN.williamglenn said:He's coming out.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/13131865290581360700 -
Plus Biden now up by 4 in North Carolina, where Trump won by 4 in 2016. Polling all conducted after Trump's hospitalisation.stodge said:
Well, that's the C- rated Trafalgar so perhaps the truism a broken clock is right twice a day can apply to pollsters as well.HYUFD said:
Ohio is of course the key swing state, the only state to have voted for the winner in every Presidential election since 1960.TimT said:If Trump is up by just 4 in Ohio in a Trafalgar Group poll, he is in deep shit:
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/oh-pres-1020/
Now that could change this year and Biden could win the Electoral College with Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin or 2 of those plus Arizona but he would be the first candidate to win the Presidency having lost Ohio since Kennedy.
So I would say Trump being up by 4% in Ohio is good news for the President in the sense he is unlikely to lose by a landslide but bad news for the President in the sense it is still not enough for him to win
With their in-built Republican bias a 4-point for Trump in a state he won by 8 last time suggests a 2% swing to Biden and a national lead of 6 points.
The A+ New York Times/Siena pollster puts Biden 8 ahead in Arizona:
https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/az100120-crosstabs/a77605c32cd8f31e/full.pdf
The Senate battle looks to be turning against McSally with Kelly establishing a solid lead.
Delaware is no one's idea of a battleground state. In 2016, Clinton won by 12 and a poll by the University of Delaware (albeit an old poll with sampling with 21/9 to 27/9) has Biden up by 21 s0o a 4.5% swing to the Democrats suggesting a double digit national lead.0 -
I keep coming back to this forecast. Please, not again.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/0 -
California would spell 2nd term.Nigelb said:
Seems unlikely so late in life.williamglenn said:He's coming out.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1313186529058136070
And a pretty desperate electoral gambit.0 -
Well if it makes you feel better, the odds of Trump winning twice based on that are less than 10%Jonathan said:I keep coming back to this forecast. Please, not again.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/0 -
As I said early, it feels totally different this time. Trump doesn't have those slogans which really resonated. It all feels very flat to me, he hasn't been able to find anything for people to rally behind. No MAGA, no build a wall, no drain the swamp, no lock up the corrupt Clintons, no the opposition called you all deplorables....Jonathan said:I keep coming back to this forecast. Please, not again.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
The Keep America Great, Harris is a lefty, Biden is sleepy, doesn't seem to get any traction.
No COVID and the economy the way it was at the start of the year, perhaps, as he really could scream I Made America Great Again, X more jobs, or some other similar BS. But not now.3 -
I don't. Seems a bit odd.kle4 said:
The same reason people on the left might follow paranoid conspiracy right wingers - it's hilarious?kinabalu said:
How come you are so immersed in ultra woke lefty twitter?FrancisUrquhart said:
Social media outrage bus has been full on racist, its racist, made by a racist, racist company, they need to be sacked for being a racist, they know nothing about the black community, they need to go on an education course to learn about the black community....MaxPB said:
He called it that. PureGym probably thought they were in the clear with the wokerati because of that but didn't account for faux offence taken by liberal whites on behalf of other races.kinabalu said:
Why is that hilarious? Please explain.MaxPB said:
What's hilarious about it is that it was a black guy who came up with the workout routine. 😆kinabalu said:Talk about not quite "getting" the historical weight of anti-black racism -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-54419760
Oh its a black employee of a franchise, who is just a numpty not to realise how it looks...
I don't care that he is black, sack him for not knowing about black history....0 -
It doesn’t. Four more years of this bullshit should be nowhere near 10%.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Well if it makes you feel better, the odds of Trump winning twice based on that are less than 10%Jonathan said:I keep coming back to this forecast. Please, not again.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/2 -
Only before the first had already occurred.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Well if it makes you feel better, the odds of Trump winning twice based on that are less than 10%Jonathan said:I keep coming back to this forecast. Please, not again.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/0 -
The man who didn’t cower behind a mask, took Covid head on and defeated it. That’s what we’ll hear from now till Election Day.FrancisUrquhart said:
As I said early, it feels totally different this time. Trump doesn't have those slogans which really resonated. It all feels very flat to me, he hasn't been able to find anything for people to rally behind. No MAGA, no build a wall, no drain the swamp, no lock up the corrupt Clintons, no the opposition called you all deplorables....Jonathan said:I keep coming back to this forecast. Please, not again.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
The Keep America Great, Harris is a lefty, Biden is sleepy, doesn't seem to get any traction.0 -
apologies if already posted but betfairs open again
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We don’t seem to have bought a new squad. Was no one watching that performance at the weekend?1
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I said 'might'. And what's odd about it? People laugh at their political opponents all the time. Not everyone will, but it's hardly aberrant behaviour.kinabalu said:
I don't. Seems a bit odd.kle4 said:
The same reason people on the left might follow paranoid conspiracy right wingers - it's hilarious?kinabalu said:
How come you are so immersed in ultra woke lefty twitter?FrancisUrquhart said:
Social media outrage bus has been full on racist, its racist, made by a racist, racist company, they need to be sacked for being a racist, they know nothing about the black community, they need to go on an education course to learn about the black community....MaxPB said:
He called it that. PureGym probably thought they were in the clear with the wokerati because of that but didn't account for faux offence taken by liberal whites on behalf of other races.kinabalu said:
Why is that hilarious? Please explain.MaxPB said:
What's hilarious about it is that it was a black guy who came up with the workout routine. 😆kinabalu said:Talk about not quite "getting" the historical weight of anti-black racism -
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-54419760
Oh its a black employee of a franchise, who is just a numpty not to realise how it looks...
I don't care that he is black, sack him for not knowing about black history....0 -
It won't work outside his base, because everybody knows somebody who has died from COVID. Things like MAGA worked in the important states, because everybody knew somebody who had lost their factory job and all Clinton was basically offering was more of the same.Jonathan said:
The man who didn’t cower behind a mask, took Covid head on and defeated it. That’s what we’ll hear from now till Election Day.FrancisUrquhart said:
As I said early, it feels totally different this time. Trump doesn't have those slogans which really resonated. It all feels very flat to me, he hasn't been able to find anything for people to rally behind. No MAGA, no build a wall, no drain the swamp, no lock up the corrupt Clintons, no the opposition called you all deplorables....Jonathan said:I keep coming back to this forecast. Please, not again.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
The Keep America Great, Harris is a lefty, Biden is sleepy, doesn't seem to get any traction.0 -
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His scriptwriter brain didn't know how to handle COVID. He bet on the optimistic scenario and hoped it would have been over by the summer, but that storyline didn't work out and now he's stuck.FrancisUrquhart said:
As I said early, it feels totally different this time. Trump doesn't have those slogans which really resonated. It all feels very flat to me, he hasn't been able to find anything for people to rally behind. No MAGA, no build a wall, no drain the swamp, no lock up the corrupt Clintons, no the opposition called you all deplorables....Jonathan said:I keep coming back to this forecast. Please, not again.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
The Keep America Great, Harris is a lefty, Biden is sleepy, doesn't seem to get any traction.
No COVID and the economy the way it was at the start of the year, perhaps, as he really could scream I Made America Great Again, X more jobs, or some other similar BS. But not now.0 -
He fought Covid and won. He will do the same for the nation. Yada yada yada.williamglenn said:
His scriptwriter brain didn't know how to handle COVID. He bet on the optimistic scenario and hoped it would have been over by the summer, but that storyline didn't work out and now he's stuck.FrancisUrquhart said:
As I said early, it feels totally different this time. Trump doesn't have those slogans which really resonated. It all feels very flat to me, he hasn't been able to find anything for people to rally behind. No MAGA, no build a wall, no drain the swamp, no lock up the corrupt Clintons, no the opposition called you all deplorables....Jonathan said:I keep coming back to this forecast. Please, not again.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
The Keep America Great, Harris is a lefty, Biden is sleepy, doesn't seem to get any traction.
No COVID and the economy the way it was at the start of the year, perhaps, as he really could scream I Made America Great Again, X more jobs, or some other similar BS. But not now.0 -
Why is it I cannot believe a word these doctors are saying
This is a gigantic political stunt
As I said yesterday Trump is the worst thing to happen to the US and hopefully it ends in the next four weeks3 -
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Yes, if it had quieten down and they had a vaccine (or a drug that basically stopped all but the sickest dying), again his narrative might have worked. Instead, the opposite has occurred and it personally effects everybody.williamglenn said:
His scriptwriter brain didn't know how to handle COVID. He bet on the optimistic scenario and hoped it would have been over by the summer, but that storyline didn't work out and now he's stuck.FrancisUrquhart said:
As I said early, it feels totally different this time. Trump doesn't have those slogans which really resonated. It all feels very flat to me, he hasn't been able to find anything for people to rally behind. No MAGA, no build a wall, no drain the swamp, no lock up the corrupt Clintons, no the opposition called you all deplorables....Jonathan said:I keep coming back to this forecast. Please, not again.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
The Keep America Great, Harris is a lefty, Biden is sleepy, doesn't seem to get any traction.
No COVID and the economy the way it was at the start of the year, perhaps, as he really could scream I Made America Great Again, X more jobs, or some other similar BS. But not now.0 -
nick riviera would fit in well as part of this medical team1
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Unfortunately even if he loses it doesn’t end for another four months.Big_G_NorthWales said:Why is it I cannot believe a word these doctors are saying
This is a gigantic political stunt
As I said yesterday Trump is the worst thing to happen to the US and hopefully it ends in the next four weeks2 -
the doctors said i was the greatest patient theyve ever had.0
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It won't work, because everybody knows an Uncle Billy Bob, who died a horrible sad death from it, and they were the biggest fighter they ever knew.Jonathan said:
He fought Covid and won. He will do the same for the nation. Yada yada yada.williamglenn said:
His scriptwriter brain didn't know how to handle COVID. He bet on the optimistic scenario and hoped it would have been over by the summer, but that storyline didn't work out and now he's stuck.FrancisUrquhart said:
As I said early, it feels totally different this time. Trump doesn't have those slogans which really resonated. It all feels very flat to me, he hasn't been able to find anything for people to rally behind. No MAGA, no build a wall, no drain the swamp, no lock up the corrupt Clintons, no the opposition called you all deplorables....Jonathan said:I keep coming back to this forecast. Please, not again.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
The Keep America Great, Harris is a lefty, Biden is sleepy, doesn't seem to get any traction.
No COVID and the economy the way it was at the start of the year, perhaps, as he really could scream I Made America Great Again, X more jobs, or some other similar BS. But not now.0 -
Yes, she's fine, thank you Ed. I wouldn't mention it on here if she were still troubled, but nice of you anyway.MrEd said:
I hope she is generally on the mend PeterPeter_the_Punter said:
In common with many Covid sufferers, Mrs PtP regularly felt periods of great well-being after the main symptoms had subsided, but they were irregular and punctuated by irregular relapses. It wouldn't be surprising if Trump experienced something similar.ydoethur said:
That startled me for a moment. Was wondering how it would play in the Bible belt.williamglenn said:He's coming out.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1313186529058136070
Amen. Let us all thank God for small mercies.Floater said:Trump says "dont be afraid of Covid"
He really is a rare individual.....
Next few weeks are going to be interesting.0 -
I reckon Trump never had it0
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I agree, although oddly enough Trump seems to be holding onto about 98% of his vote from last time according to the latest polls. There appears to be a relatively big move to Biden from third parties.FrancisUrquhart said:
As I said early, it feels totally different this time. Trump doesn't have those slogans which really resonated. It all feels very flat to me, he hasn't been able to find anything for people to rally behind. No MAGA, no build a wall, no drain the swamp, no lock up the corrupt Clintons, no the opposition called you all deplorables....Jonathan said:I keep coming back to this forecast. Please, not again.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
The Keep America Great, Harris is a lefty, Biden is sleepy, doesn't seem to get any traction.
No COVID and the economy the way it was at the start of the year, perhaps, as he really could scream I Made America Great Again, X more jobs, or some other similar BS. But not now.1 -
We all know he’s never had ‘it.’ The question is whether he was ill with Covid.CorrectHorseBattery said:I reckon Trump never had it
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I agree totally with that, and it all makes sense. But sometimes it is actually the data that is wrong.stodge said:
Let's try it the other way - the ghost of 2016 still stalks the political land.MrEd said:
The thing which I can't get my head round is, if Trump is in so much trouble, why it is not being picked up more in tales from within his political campaign. No one wants to be associated with a loser. We have also had various stories about GOP Senators such as McNally, Tillis, Collins and Graham being in trouble, suggesting Republican sources are happy to talk to the press, but - outside those in the Republican party who don't like Trump - few who are saying that Trump's campaign is floundering.
If anything, where Trump was visiting before his illness, suggested he was thinking of expanding the map, including places such as MN, NV and NH. We have also had stories from within the Democratic camp suggesting they are having trouble motivating voters in Wisconsin and Latinos in Florida.
Now that may be classic bullsh1tting and projecting strength from Trump and it may be the polls are absolutely spot on (the ones with the big Biden leads) but it feels odd.
There are, I suspect, many who are secretly terrified that somehow, despite the majority of polls showing otherwise, Trump and his supporters will conjure victory from the jaws of defeat and those who win have long memories and won't forget those who were defeatist.
There is a clear passion and enthusiasm among Trump's supporters - that is evident. He is almost worshipped by his supporters but there were those who backed Walter Mondale in 1984 or the Conservatives in 1997 and believed in them but that didn't stop them being trounced. Sometimes, it's the most faithful who are the most blind. Yes, Trump evokes that in his supporters - the problem is there aren't as many as there were.
Among Democrats there can be no complacency, no confidence in success. Just as there were those Labour activists who simply could not believe how well they were doing in 1997, there are doubtless Democrats who see every nuance of a wobble in Wisconsin or hesitation among Hispanics and magnify those into election-losing and remember the defeat of 2016 and cannot bring themselves to believe in victory. It's all about caution ,fighting for every vote in the battleground states.
Biden doesn't elicit the same enthusiasm as Trump but he doesn't need to - he just needs people to vote for him or against Trump - in the end, it won't matter.
Sometimes, the polls are right - it's just those reading them who are wrong.
I remembered reading "Shattered" about the Hillary Clinton campaign and how it completely messed up the situation. It's worth looking at the NYT review on Amazon of the book: " It's the story of a wildly dysfunctional and 'spirit-crushing' campaign that embraced a flawed strategy (based on flawed data) that failed, repeatedly, to correct course". I actually feel like the Biden campaign know things are tighter than they appear (there doesn't really feel to be too much of a push to places like Georgia and Texas, which you think they would do if they thought they were in with a chance) so it is not making the mistakes of Clinton there but the point re the quality of the data remains the same.
We all focus on here about whether the polls were right in 2016 or not, and which ones are the Gold Standard but what I think has been forgotten is that, in 2016, nobody could even imagine Trump was going to be elected. That is why you could get 6/1 on him on the day. If the polls were so accurate back then as everyone seems to think now, and the lead between Trump and Clinton they were showing was supposedly so narrow, why was he at such odds? There was no reason he should have been, especially in a two-horse race and where the Democrats were looking to win the Presidency three times on the trot. He was 6/1 because nobody believed he had a chance and also because we were all assured that Clinton's campaign was so great, efficient, organised and so on. It was only when everyone looked under the bonnet afterwards and realised how bad things were.
I get the same feeling with Biden's campaign. Maybe it's my bias that makes me feel that way and, for that reason alone, I would bet heavily one way or the other. But it has that same leaden feel to it. Uninspiring candidate (and VP candidate); reliance on dislike of his opponent; no real policies people can remember or relate to; and a reliance on a "virtual" campaigning strategy which seems to be ringing alarm bells amongst some operatives and which they are now changing.
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https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/05/mi5-bill-prompts-second-labour-rebellion-in-two-weeks-jeremy-corbyn
Jezza secretly working to get Labour up in the polls0 -
So Trumpsky is the 2nd Coming? A meaner, better Jesus?TheScreamingEagles said:
Not sure THAT is best messaging for evangelical voters . . . or just about anyone else . . .
Once rode a crowded Greyhound Bus from New Orleans to Baton Rouge sitting next to a fellow (well known in BR as a crazy street preacher) who revealed his personal Godhead unto me en route.
The longest two freaking hours of my life!0 -
Yes but it was just one game and Adrian won't be in goals forever.DavidL said:We don’t seem to have bought a new squad. Was no one watching that performance at the weekend?
Oh you mean the other club ...0 -
NO worries at all Peter and very glad to hear.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, she's fine, thank you Ed. I wouldn't mention it on here if she were still troubled, but nice of you anyway.MrEd said:
I hope she is generally on the mend PeterPeter_the_Punter said:
In common with many Covid sufferers, Mrs PtP regularly felt periods of great well-being after the main symptoms had subsided, but they were irregular and punctuated by irregular relapses. It wouldn't be surprising if Trump experienced something similar.ydoethur said:
That startled me for a moment. Was wondering how it would play in the Bible belt.williamglenn said:He's coming out.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1313186529058136070
Amen. Let us all thank God for small mercies.Floater said:Trump says "dont be afraid of Covid"
He really is a rare individual.....
Next few weeks are going to be interesting.0 -
PPP are a B-rated pollster but it's not insignificant. There have now been a series of polls showing Biden leading in NC so I've moved the state into the Biden column on my mastermap.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Plus Biden now up by 4 in North Carolina, where Trump won by 4 in 2016. Polling all conducted after Trump's hospitalisation.
Just the News (JTN) have a new national poll carried out for them by Scott Rasmussen:
https://justthenews.com/sites/default/files/2020-10/HRCT.pdf
To be fair, it's more about Trump losing ground than Biden gaining but the net effect is poor for the President as Biden now leads 51-43. Among White voters Trump leads 50-44 (compared with 58-37 in 2016) so that's a 7.5% swing to Biden so any improvement Trump has made among Hispanics for example is more than offset by his deteriorating position among White voters.
In 2016, Trump won male voters 54-41 now Biden leads 49-47 - that's also a 7.5% swing. Among women, there's been little change. Trump has lost support among the group you'd perhaps least expect - white men.
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Dr. Nick Riviera is up at the moment.0
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He never had covidydoethur said:
We all know he’s never had ‘it.’ The question is whether he was ill with Covid.CorrectHorseBattery said:I reckon Trump never had it
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I did ask if PB thought is was a hoax on day one but to be honest I think he has it, especially as so many of his cabal have gone down with itCorrectHorseBattery said:I reckon Trump never had it
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The Carrington resignation was bullshit - a classic use of the Ministers head to protect permanent officials.another_richard said:
Carrington was appointed Secretary-General of NATO two years later and Luce returned to government.Andy_JS said:
True, but ministers aren't usually personally responsible for mistakes made under their watch. They still used to resign, like Lord Carrington and Richard Luce when the Falklands were invaded in 1982.FrancisUrquhart said:BBC explanation of the Excel problem..
The BBC has confirmed the missing Covid-19 test data was caused by the ill-thought-out use of Microsoft's Excel software. Furthermore, PHE was to blame, rather than a third-party contractor.
The issue was caused by the way the agency brought together logs produced by the commercial firms paid to carry out swab tests for the virus. They filed their results in the form of text-based lists, without issue.
PHE had set up an automatic process to pull this data together into Excel templates so that it could then be uploaded to a central system and made available to the NHS Test and Trace team as well as other government computer dashboards.
The problem is that the PHE developers picked an old file format to do this - known as XLS. As a consequence, each template could handle only about 65,000 rows of data rather than the one million-plus rows that Excel is actually capable of.
And since each test result created several rows of data, in practice it meant that each template was limited to about 1,400 cases. When that total was reached, further cases were simply left off.
Until last week, there were not enough test results being generated by private labs for this to have been a problem
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54422505
Its hard to blame Matt Hancock personally for this.
Among other things, officials at the Foreign Office were protected from the consequences of their actions.
Which included downgrading reports from and trying to have disciplined an MI6 guy stationed at the embassy in Argentina. His crime - before the invasion he had been sending reports saying that something was up with the Argentine military and they were preparing to move etc. These reports would have disrupted the policy the officials in question were pursuing.
After the Falklands war they tried to have him binned from MI6 - they were still worried about their Ks.....3 -
This must be why it makes sense for uni labs who were sending in large batches of cases at once due to historical data catch up getting caught out by this.FrancisUrquhart said:BBC explanation of the Excel problem..
The BBC has confirmed the missing Covid-19 test data was caused by the ill-thought-out use of Microsoft's Excel software. Furthermore, PHE was to blame, rather than a third-party contractor.
The issue was caused by the way the agency brought together logs produced by the commercial firms paid to carry out swab tests for the virus. They filed their results in the form of text-based lists, without issue.
PHE had set up an automatic process to pull this data together into Excel templates so that it could then be uploaded to a central system and made available to the NHS Test and Trace team as well as other government computer dashboards.
The problem is that the PHE developers picked an old file format to do this - known as XLS. As a consequence, each template could handle only about 65,000 rows of data rather than the one million-plus rows that Excel is actually capable of.
And since each test result created several rows of data, in practice it meant that each template was limited to about 1,400 cases. When that total was reached, further cases were simply left off.
Until last week, there were not enough test results being generated by private labs for this to have been a problem
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54422505
Its hard to blame Matt Hancock personally for this.
At least the new case per column wasn't true.0 -
One of President medical team looked very sweaty and rather ill at the press conference.0
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For electoral purposes, it needs somebody very close to the President, but not Trump himself, to die from the disease. (Perhaps his personal physician; his wife would get too much sympathy?). That would be the final nail in Trump's coffin (sic). "Don't be afraid of Covid" would then ring hollow.0
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Why does the phrase you lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas, come to mind?Nigelb said:
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I have to say that they looked sheepish and evasiveFrancisUrquhart said:One of President medical team looked very sweaty and rather ill at the press conference.
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8/30: Tweets "It looks as though the coronavirus isn't as deadly as it's made out.Scott_xP said:
Surprising quite a few people until it's made clear that his twitter account was continued by his family members. Who demonstrate that Americans can at least achieve dark irony.1 -
A parting pardon from President Trump?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Well I'm not sure Trump can pardon state level crimes which is why New York are pursuing him.Mexicanpete said:
A parting pardon from President Trump?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I would not use Trafalgar for Nevada unlike Florida and the Midwest but Nevada is largely irrelevant anyway, as seen by the fact Hillary won Nevada but lost Florida and Michigan and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and it was the latter which cost her the electoral collegePhilip_Thompson said:
Is that the same Trafalgar Group that forecast Trump would win Nevada by 5% when he actually lost by 2%?HYUFD said:
I could not care less what pompous poll ratings call Trafalgar, I judge pollsters by results and results alone.stodge said:
Well, that's the C- rated Trafalgar so perhaps the truism a broken clock is right twice a day can apply to pollsters as well.HYUFD said:
Ohio is of course the key swing state, the only state to have voted for the winner in every Presidential election since 1960.TimT said:If Trump is up by just 4 in Ohio in a Trafalgar Group poll, he is in deep shit:
https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/oh-pres-1020/
Now that could change this year and Biden could win the Electoral College with Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin or 2 of those plus Arizona but he would be the first candidate to win the Presidency having lost Ohio since Kennedy.
So I would say Trump being up by 4% in Ohio is good news for the President in the sense he is unlikely to lose by a landslide but bad news for the President in the sense it is still not enough for him to win
With their in-built Republican bias a 4-point for Trump in a state he won by 8 last time suggests a 2% swing to Biden and a national lead of 6 points.
The A+ New York Times/Siena pollster puts Biden 8 ahead in Arizona:
https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/az100120-crosstabs/a77605c32cd8f31e/full.pdf
The Senate battle looks to be turning against McSally with Kelly establishing a solid lead.
Delaware is no one's idea of a battleground state. In 2016, Clinton won by 12 and a poll by the University of Delaware (albeit an old poll with sampling with 21/9 to 27/9) has Biden up by 21 s0o a 4.5% swing to the Democrats suggesting a double digit national lead.
In 2016 Trafalgar called Michigan and Pennsylvania correctly for Trump when most pollsters and Nate Silver had Clinton ahead there, Silver also wrongly had Clinton ahead in Florida unlike Trafalgar.
Trafalgar should therefore be treated with great respect for identifying Trump voters as long as Trump is on the ballot
That Trafalgar Group?0 -
At least if he loses we can know it is ending and count down the days.ydoethur said:
Unfortunately even if he loses it doesn’t end for another four months.Big_G_NorthWales said:Why is it I cannot believe a word these doctors are saying
This is a gigantic political stunt
As I said yesterday Trump is the worst thing to happen to the US and hopefully it ends in the next four weeks0 -
See latest Trafalgar Poll in the battleground States now has Trump leading 48-44 in Ohio. Tell you he'll win the Electoral College by the of the thinnest of margins.0
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If no one could actually believe he would win the his odds would have been 20/1MrEd said:, nobody could even imagine Trump was going to be elected. That is why you could get 6/1 on him on the day. If the polls were so accurate back then as everyone seems to think now, and the lead between Trump and Clinton they were showing was supposedly so narrow, why was he at such odds? .
6/1 is highly believable odds.
The reason why he was so long was that the available polling in Pennsylvania was that it was a comfortable Clinton hold and the conventional wisdom was that Trump would need to win what Jack. Called FOP. Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
And whilst Florida was on a knife edge and Ohio was safely Trump Penn was out of reach.
6/1 was perfectly conceivable odds in the situation with the information we had.0 -
That's the same Trafalgar who forecast he'd win Nevada by 5 in 2016? He actually lost it by 2.theakes said:See latest Trafalgar Poll in the battleground States now has Trump leading 48-44 in Ohio. Tell you he'll win the Electoral College by the of the thinnest of margins.
That's the same Ohio he won by 8 this time? So 4 would be a 2% swing against him?
That is not a good poll for Trump.1 -
Yikes, three of the six are essentially by my parents (Fallowfield Central, Ladybarn and Rusholme East).FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
You gotta wonder if Trump is himself the superspreader, and a bigly one too.Nigelb said:
This has come from one of my spies, it shows fairly clear lung fields, but can anyone spot the problem?
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Trump is back ahead with over 65s though in that poll and leads all voters over 45 but Biden's big lead with younger voters, especially under 35s, puts him in front.stodge said:
PPP are a B-rated pollster but it's not insignificant. There have now been a series of polls showing Biden leading in NC so I've moved the state into the Biden column on my mastermap.Wulfrun_Phil said:
Plus Biden now up by 4 in North Carolina, where Trump won by 4 in 2016. Polling all conducted after Trump's hospitalisation.
Just the News (JTN) have a new national poll carried out for them by Scott Rasmussen:
https://justthenews.com/sites/default/files/2020-10/HRCT.pdf
To be fair, it's more about Trump losing ground than Biden gaining but the net effect is poor for the President as Biden now leads 51-43. Among White voters Trump leads 50-44 (compared with 58-37 in 2016) so that's a 7.5% swing to Biden so any improvement Trump has made among Hispanics for example is more than offset by his deteriorating position among White voters.
In 2016, Trump won male voters 54-41 now Biden leads 49-47 - that's also a 7.5% swing. Among women, there's been little change. Trump has lost support among the group you'd perhaps least expect - white men.
Trump is also doing better with black voters than he did in 2016, on 12% to 8% then, the swing against him is mainly with young white voters0 -
He outperformed the polls in Ohio last time and won 52-44.theakes said:See latest Trafalgar Poll in the battleground States now has Trump leading 48-44 in Ohio. Tell you he'll win the Electoral College by the of the thinnest of margins.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Ohio1 -
Just as a statistical exercise, although the risks are a tiny percentage for each of them, when you compound all those high 90s%s, and consider the growing number of them coming down with it, the compound result is fast reducing.Northern_Al said:For electoral purposes, it needs somebody very close to the President, but not Trump himself, to die from the disease. (Perhaps his personal physician; his wife would get too much sympathy?). That would be the final nail in Trump's coffin (sic). "Don't be afraid of Covid" would then ring hollow.
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When Olly North quits because he thinks you are too dodgy to work with then you are fucked.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
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Yeah, Ohio was a big polling miss but was ignored because the miss was in the winning direction.williamglenn said:
He outperformed the polls in Ohio last time and won 52-44.theakes said:See latest Trafalgar Poll in the battleground States now has Trump leading 48-44 in Ohio. Tell you he'll win the Electoral College by the of the thinnest of margins.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election#Ohio0 -
All the steroids.GIN1138 said:0 -
What they are also doing is:CorrectHorseBattery said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/05/mi5-bill-prompts-second-labour-rebellion-in-two-weeks-jeremy-corbyn
Jezza secretly working to get Labour up in the polls
1. Urging Starmer to do what the Tories want him to do, namely to fall into every bear trap set for him, only to let out howls of anguish when he nimbly steps aside and refuses to do the Tories' bidding.
2. Annoying a lot of Labour members who feel that Starmer should be given a chance to lead a party that is generally united behind him, rather than facing repeated attacks from those ostensibly on his own side, and in so doing marginalising themselves further within the party.
3. Giving Starmer every opportunity to relieve such disloyal Corbynites of the heavy burden of serving on the opposition front bench (if there are still any left - I can think of five who have departed in the last six months).
Quite what their long term game is remains hard to fathom, other than in the realms of delusion.1 -
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Some medical comment via CNBC on Trump’s potential over-treatment:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/05/doctors-worry-trump-could-be-over-treated-for-coronavirus-because-hes-a-vip.html0 -
That's a bit rude - AndyJS is entitled to visit the cinema when he chooses.TheScreamingEagles said:
Parasite.Andy_JS said:
The last film I went to see in the cinema was the South Korean blockbuster in February. It was very good. (Forgotten the name of it).kle4 said:
Bill and Ted 3?Pulpstar said:
Tenet is the only release over the summer I've come acrossLuckyguy1983 said:
To be fair, I've seen no advertising from cinemas - I'd have thought being a reasonably safe form of public entertainment (sitting facing one way in a socially distant fashion) they'd have fought a bit more.FrancisUrquhart said:The Prime Minister has urged people to return to cinemas following news Cineworld is temporarily closing its UK and US venues, affecting 45,000 jobs.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-543878560 -
Don't cancel me, but I've always had a soft spot for Olly North.Alistair said:
When Olly North quits because he thinks you are too dodgy to work with then you are fucked.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
100% cancelled.TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't cancel me, but I've always had a soft spot for Olly North.Alistair said:
When Olly North quits because he thinks you are too dodgy to work with then you are fucked.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
A mid-range C19 episode would very likely leave some lung damage.Pulpstar said:Damaged lungs I reckon
https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/13131978516321730610 -
Is it not possible that the pumping of Trump with all manner of drugs, including steroids, could be giving him a false impression of how energetic he feels. Some sort of an adrenalin rush or something.
And once the effects wear off he will go back to where he was before?0 -
Won't happen. He'll just stay on the juice.alex_ said:Is it not possible that the pumping of Trump with all manner of drugs, including steroids, could be giving him a false impression of how energetic he feels. Some sort of an adrenalin rush or something.
And once the effects wear off he will go back to where he was before?0 -
Trump is going to be hopped up on the juju juice from now till election day.alex_ said:Is it not possible that the pumping of Trump with all manner of drugs, including steroids, could be giving him a false impression of how energetic he feels. Some sort of an adrenalin rush or something.
And once the effects wear off he will go back to where he was before?1 -
And to think he used to accuse Joe Biden of doing this...Alistair said:
Trump is going to be hopped up on the juju juice from now till election day.alex_ said:Is it not possible that the pumping of Trump with all manner of drugs, including steroids, could be giving him a false impression of how energetic he feels. Some sort of an adrenalin rush or something.
And once the effects wear off he will go back to where he was before?0
