Tammy Abraham, Ben Chilwell and Jadon Sancho will not join up with the England squad for this month’s games against Wales, Belgium and Denmark until the Football Association has investigated the trio’s attendance at a party that allegedly breached Covid-19 regulations.
The FA has decided to take precautions and ensure there is no risk to the wider group after footage emerged which appeared to show Abraham, Chilwell and Sancho at a party in London with more than six people – breaking the government’s “rule of six” coronavirus guidelines – on Saturday evening. Abraham has apologised and Chelsea are to remind the striker and Chilwell of their responsibilities.
I think Johnson is an absurdity as PM but I also consider the view he is likely to be gone soon to be wildly off beam. Just 10 months ago he won a general election by 80 seats. The best majority for the Conservatives since 1980s Thatcher in her pomp. He did so from a position 6 months prior on assuming the leadership where the party looked to be - was - in a hole. It was a personal triumph. A complete vindication of the ghastly man and his ghastly methods.
He will not be stepping down voluntarily. People in top jobs do not relinquish power and status except for health reasons and there is no reason to expect that here. He does not have long Covid. Neither will he be forced out by his party for the foreseeable future. The earliest it could happen is 2023 and only then if (i) he has become a clear electoral liability and (ii) there is a replacement guaranteed to be more popular.
So, there is a Betfair market, Boris Johnson exit date, and "July 2022 or later" can be backed at 1.8. I think that is outstanding value. It should be more like 1.33.
If any of the punters here take the opposite view and think it should be longer and the value is in the other direction - the lay - I have money there at 1.85 looking for a match. £50 for starters but with appetite for more. Just hit me.
Or do it privately on here and save the comm/tying up the money
An option but it's a long timeframe and with Betfair I can close to flat when it's down to 1.3 next Spring.
SD = South Dakota? Why so high there? It's solid Republican anyway.
Dunno why it's high there, but it's a tiny electorate in a big place, so maybe it's just convenience.
Maybe the locals have heard Trump's planning to have his ugly mug carved into Mount Rushmore and are piling in to make sure it doesn't happen?
There's a companion "why did we get it wrong" piece to go with the one from the weekend. The how did we miss Biden sweeping to one of the largest victories ever. Taking the entire west and east coast as well as Texas
I haven't missed it. It's distinctly possible. There's not a lot of point discussing it though because the consequences are so obvious (one of these being I become a good deal better off.)
I've been pretty brutal in my polling analysis. Anyone who isn't reporting clear education breakdowns is binned.
Anyone with comically low HS or less figures is binned.
But that still leaves a lot of polls and those polls have - based on historic turnout - very, very high HS or less weighting. It is non trivial to the end result, worth a couple of percentage points to Trump and a couple off Biden.
If, in a state where HS or less turnout was less than 20% in 2018 and 2016 it seems rather..... aggressive to me to weight your sample to 34% HS or less for 2020.
Summary of the three forecasting models where I can download or derive the full ECV probability distribution (538 and Economist as at just a moment ago, YouGov as at 3rd October):
The thing that convinces me Trump is dead in the water for re-election. Last time he got himself the 3-4 slogans, make America great, build the wall, lock her up, and they resonanced, even if people didn't really quite believe how he would achieve them or want clinton locked up (it just reinforced opinion that some shifty stuff about Clintons).
This time he has got nothing going. Sleepy Joe doesn't really go anywhere, does keep America great. He has tried getting the Harris is a far leftist, Biden is on drugs, but we aren't seeing people really going for them.
SD = South Dakota? Why so high there? It's solid Republican anyway.
Dunno why it's high there, but it's a tiny electorate in a big place, so maybe it's just convenience.
Maybe the locals have heard Trump's planning to have his ugly mug carved into Mount Rushmore and are piling in to make sure it doesn't happen?
There's a companion "why did we get it wrong" piece to go with the one from the weekend. The how did we miss Biden sweeping to one of the largest victories ever. Taking the entire west and east coast as well as Texas
I haven't missed it. It's distinctly possible. There's not a lot of point discussing it though because the consequences are so obvious (one of these being I become a good deal better off.)
I've been pretty brutal in my polling analysis. Anyone who isn't reporting clear education breakdowns is binned.
Anyone with comically low HS or less figures is binned.
But that still leaves a lot of polls and those polls have - based on historic turnout - very, very high HS or less weighting. It is non trivial to the end result, worth a couple of percentage points to Trump and a couple off Biden.
If, in a state where HS or less turnout was less than 20% in 2018 and 2016 it seems rather..... aggressive to me to weight your sample to 34% HS or less for 2020.
If you look at 538s analysis you'll see 400+ for Biden is now one of the more probable outcomes, so you and I are not alone it considering it.
Incidentally I see Nate has just tweaked Trump down to 18% - or 9/2 in traditional bookies fractions. Other models are available, mostly suggesting bigger prices.
I think Johnson is an absurdity as PM but I also consider the view he is likely to be gone soon to be wildly off beam. Just 10 months ago he won a general election by 80 seats. The best majority for the Conservatives since 1980s Thatcher in her pomp. He did so from a position 6 months prior on assuming the leadership where the party looked to be - was - in a hole. It was a personal triumph. A complete vindication of the ghastly man and his ghastly methods.
He will not be stepping down voluntarily. People in top jobs do not relinquish power and status except for health reasons and there is no reason to expect that here. He does not have long Covid. Neither will he be forced out by his party for the foreseeable future. The earliest it could happen is 2023 and only then if (i) he has become a clear electoral liability and (ii) there is a replacement guaranteed to be more popular.
So, there is a Betfair market, Boris Johnson exit date, and "July 2022 or later" can be backed at 1.8. I think that is outstanding value. It should be more like 1.33.
If any of the punters here take the opposite view and think it should be longer and the value is in the other direction - the lay - I have money there at 1.85 looking for a match. £50 for starters but with appetite for more. Just hit me.
Or do it privately on here and save the comm/tying up the money
An option but it's a long timeframe and with Betfair I can close to flat when it's down to 1.3 next Spring.
You can still do that if you've had the original bet on here cant you?
The thing that convinces me Trump is dead in the water for re-election. Last time he got himself the 3-4 slogans, make America great, build the wall, lock her up, and they resonanced, even if people didn't really quite believe how he would achieve them or want clinton locked up (it just reinforced opinion that some shifty stuff about Clintons).
This time he has got nothing going. Sleepy Joe doesn't really go anywhere, does keep America great. He has tried getting the Harris is a far leftist, Biden is on drugs, but we aren't seeing people really going for them.
Good point on the broken promises -
He hasn't made America great again. He hasn't built the Wall. He hasn't locked her up.
If a tradesman comes to your house to repair your fridge and has nothing but a hammer with him, it is obvious to everyone, even Boris, that he is unfit to be a fridge repairman, professional or amateur.
If a data scientist tries to compile the official government SARS-COV2 data and has nothing but Excel, it is obvious ....
It's common to refer to said hammer as the [insert name of city to be dissed, e.g. Birmingham] screwdriver - perhaps we should all start referring to Excel as the 'Whitehall Database'?
The banks got there first. I think I have spent more than half my life trying to remove Excel from the financial operations chain.....
Thank god we managed to kill Access. That was a stake-through-the-heart-with-garlix-and-silver-hollowpoints-just-in-case thing.....
The true horror was always the application that the company totally relies on which was built using vb3 over access using crystal reports by the accountant that left 5 years ago and could you add a few features please....what do you mean source code and spec?
The true horror was always the application that the company totally relies on which was built using vb3 over access using crystal reports by the accountant that left 5 years ago and could you add a few features please....what do you mean source code and spec?
Every time the finance team updates their spreadsheet, the IPS complains that they are trying to do SQL injection on the finance database!
The thing that convinces me Trump is dead in the water for re-election. Last time he got himself the 3-4 slogans, make America great, build the wall, lock her up, and they resonanced, even if people didn't really quite believe how he would achieve them or want clinton locked up (it just reinforced opinion that some shifty stuff about Clintons).
This time he has got nothing going. Sleepy Joe doesn't really go anywhere, does keep America great. He has tried getting the Harris is a far leftist, Biden is on drugs, but we aren't seeing people really going for them.
Good point on the broken promises -
He hasn't made America great again. He hasn't built the Wall. He hasn't locked her up.
SD = South Dakota? Why so high there? It's solid Republican anyway.
Dunno why it's high there, but it's a tiny electorate in a big place, so maybe it's just convenience.
Maybe the locals have heard Trump's planning to have his ugly mug carved into Mount Rushmore and are piling in to make sure it doesn't happen?
There's a companion "why did we get it wrong" piece to go with the one from the weekend. The how did we miss Biden sweeping to one of the largest victories ever. Taking the entire west and east coast as well as Texas
I haven't missed it. It's distinctly possible. There's not a lot of point discussing it though because the consequences are so obvious (one of these being I become a good deal better off.)
It's my 30% expectation. I'll be a bit disappointed with a 'solid but not spectacular' outcome.
If a tradesman comes to your house to repair your fridge and has nothing but a hammer with him, it is obvious to everyone, even Boris, that he is unfit to be a fridge repairman, professional or amateur.
If a data scientist tries to compile the official government SARS-COV2 data and has nothing but Excel, it is obvious ....
It's common to refer to said hammer as the [insert name of city to be dissed, e.g. Birmingham] screwdriver - perhaps we should all start referring to Excel as the 'Whitehall Database'?
The banks got there first. I think I have spent more than half my life trying to remove Excel from the financial operations chain.....
Thank god we managed to kill Access. That was a stake-through-the-heart-with-garlix-and-silver-hollowpoints-just-in-case thing.....
Twenty years back, one of my contracts was with a large, well known sportswear manufacturer (many of you will own their products) in which the whole design and ordering dept ran on MS-Access. I was on a 12 month contract there, I lasted 6 months. Their Head of IT was a throwback of the worst type and would have had them accepting orders on punched cards if he could have managed it.
This is the club that pays Mesut Özil £350,000 per week to not play and recently gave Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang a similar salary, as John W Henry famously tweeted
'What do you think they're smoking over there at The Emirates?'
Boris does not have the skill set to deal with covid and I assume most conservatives are appalled at the way he has locked down the economy
It is not getting better anytime soon as covid takes hold again and brexit looking touch and go
Rishi's endorsement of Boris today is no doubt an attempt to shore him up but it is not going to work
I hope he sees the writing on the wall and decides to stand down, or the MP's send in the 40 letters to the 1922 Committee
Having said that Macron has plummeted in the polls even more than Boris and Ireland is looking at a new full lockdown
The time must be coming for a GNU and if the politicians were putting the country first they would do it now.
And at the same time do a deal (any deal) with the EU and get a six month implementation extension
Why on earth are you calling for a Government of National Unity? "We have an 80 seat majority and we can do whatever we like" - remember?
The present outfit is not short of votes. It is short of rational policies and of competent politicians. The problem is that any rational policy would not be acceptable to Johnson and his gang of incompetents. And they would not be happy at being obliged to move out and maake way for some competent Lib Dem miinisters (and even some Labour ones too, if their party bosses let them).
Come on, Mr Wales. You voted for them (I think). You must take the responsibility.
And did you take the responsibility for Corbyn destroying labour
And I do think that on covid they have not done unreasonably compared to governments elsewhere
The Labour Party has nothing to do with me, Mr Wales, and still less does Corbyn. I have no responsibility for either of them.
But the current shambolic government and its handing of covid..... They do not have a policy which lasts from one day to the next.... And they didn´t even try to stop the import of the virus through the airports. Quarentining is entirely voluntary. And the rules they have made up all apply to us, not to them. To say that Johnson´s government is useless is a understatement - and still you seem to support them.
Still why they had a spreadsheet with all the tests in defies all reason. Get the files daily feed them to the database, Get your report from the database. At best the daily spreadsheets should have been an interim measure. Someone at the PHE lacks a clue
This is the club that pays Mesut Özil £350,000 per week to not play and recently gave Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang a similar salary, as John W Henry famously tweeted
'What do you think they're smoking over there at The Emirates?'
Put Ozil in the suit.
Problem solved
That is a genius idea.
Have the mods banned him from posting the original tweets?
Still why they had a spreadsheet with all the tests in defies all reason. Get the files daily feed them to the database, Get your report from the database. At best the daily spreadsheets should have been an interim measure. Someone at the PHE lacks a clue
Yep, but certainly not as incompetent as using columns instead of rows.
The thing that convinces me Trump is dead in the water for re-election. Last time he got himself the 3-4 slogans, make America great, build the wall, lock her up, and they resonanced, even if people didn't really quite believe how he would achieve them or want clinton locked up (it just reinforced opinion that some shifty stuff about Clintons).
This time he has got nothing going. Sleepy Joe doesn't really go anywhere, does keep America great. He has tried getting the Harris is a far leftist, Biden is on drugs, but we aren't seeing people really going for them.
Good point on the broken promises -
He hasn't made America great again. He hasn't built the Wall. He hasn't locked her up.
Only people locked up are his 2016 campaign team.
It reminds me of that police video show of boy racers, minor felons etc – Police Stop or whatever it was called.
SD = South Dakota? Why so high there? It's solid Republican anyway.
Dunno why it's high there, but it's a tiny electorate in a big place, so maybe it's just convenience.
Maybe the locals have heard Trump's planning to have his ugly mug carved into Mount Rushmore and are piling in to make sure it doesn't happen?
There's a companion "why did we get it wrong" piece to go with the one from the weekend. The how did we miss Biden sweeping to one of the largest victories ever. Taking the entire west and east coast as well as Texas
I haven't missed it. It's distinctly possible. There's not a lot of point discussing it though because the consequences are so obvious (one of these being I become a good deal better off.)
I've been pretty brutal in my polling analysis. Anyone who isn't reporting clear education breakdowns is binned.
Anyone with comically low HS or less figures is binned.
But that still leaves a lot of polls and those polls have - based on historic turnout - very, very high HS or less weighting. It is non trivial to the end result, worth a couple of percentage points to Trump and a couple off Biden.
If, in a state where HS or less turnout was less than 20% in 2018 and 2016 it seems rather..... aggressive to me to weight your sample to 34% HS or less for 2020.
The thing that convinces me Trump is dead in the water for re-election. Last time he got himself the 3-4 slogans, make America great, build the wall, lock her up, and they resonanced, even if people didn't really quite believe how he would achieve them or want clinton locked up (it just reinforced opinion that some shifty stuff about Clintons).
This time he has got nothing going. Sleepy Joe doesn't really go anywhere, does keep America great. He has tried getting the Harris is a far leftist, Biden is on drugs, but we aren't seeing people really going for them.
Good point on the broken promises -
He hasn't made America great again. He hasn't built the Wall. He hasn't locked her up.
Only people locked up are his 2016 campaign team.
Problem is that his supporters believe he's done the first two. I saw an interview the other day with a Trump voter who said, inter alia "He's built the wall, and he's even fixed healthcare which the Democrats tried to do for years and failed." How do you deal with this level of delusion?
Not that surprising he'd say England, he's a legend playing for England, and spent his life involved with England, not the UK.
Technically he was playing for England & Wales.
Indeed but does anyone ever actually say "England and Wales"?
During his time commenting and everything else he does how many times do you think he's had to say "England", how often "England and Wales", and how often "UK"?
I'd guess "England" a literal order of magnitude more than any others. It would naturally be what he'd think to say first.
Word in Ireland is that the government will not follow the public health advice. Will only make a relatively modest tightening of restrictions. Big moment for a European government to publicly break with public health advice.
Still why they had a spreadsheet with all the tests in defies all reason. Get the files daily feed them to the database, Get your report from the database. At best the daily spreadsheets should have been an interim measure. Someone at the PHE lacks a clue
Yep, but certainly not as incompetent as using columns instead of rows.
Lets see....for competency
level 1) Automating data entry directly from the labs to remove as much human error as possible from the system
level 2) Having the labs software export a csv which is then scripted straight to the database on receipt automatically
Level 3) Have someone manually upload CSV's to the database as they come in
Level 4) Use a spreadsheet to collate the CSV's for the day then export one csv to the DB
Level 5) Use an excel spreadsheet to collate all tests ever and introduce the human error of only copying the latest results from the bottom
Level 6) Use excel to collate all csvs ever, export the latest to the db but use the spreadsheet to generate your report data which is what they appear to have been upto....bonus incompetence marks for using excel without checking limitations, lose a few incompetence marks for at least using rows not columns.
Is this like the case of the NHS using an unsupported version of Windows OS which was hacked?
He's wrong because PHE use Office 365 from what I understand and interfaces I've seen. It has the million rows already. I don't think Excel has been limited to 65k rows for about 15 years.
Boris does not have the skill set to deal with covid and I assume most conservatives are appalled at the way he has locked down the economy
It is not getting better anytime soon as covid takes hold again and brexit looking touch and go
Rishi's endorsement of Boris today is no doubt an attempt to shore him up but it is not going to work
I hope he sees the writing on the wall and decides to stand down, or the MP's send in the 40 letters to the 1922 Committee
Having said that Macron has plummeted in the polls even more than Boris and Ireland is looking at a new full lockdown
The time must be coming for a GNU and if the politicians were putting the country first they would do it now.
And at the same time do a deal (any deal) with the EU and get a six month implementation extension
Why on earth are you calling for a Government of National Unity? "We have an 80 seat majority and we can do whatever we like" - remember?
The present outfit is not short of votes. It is short of rational policies and of competent politicians. The problem is that any rational policy would not be acceptable to Johnson and his gang of incompetents. And they would not be happy at being obliged to move out and maake way for some competent Lib Dem miinisters (and even some Labour ones too, if their party bosses let them).
Come on, Mr Wales. You voted for them (I think). You must take the responsibility.
The GNU is necessary to help spread the blame and protect his beloved Party from the oncoming disaster that it created.
The truth of the matter is that the Conservatives have been out of power since 2019. The current shower are even remotely Conservative.
From your previous posting that might seem to be a good thing from your POV
Is this like the case of the NHS using an unsupported version of Windows OS which was hacked?
But the row limit that caused the issue was a million, so they are using the latest version. What is he on about?
Ed Conway is clueless when it comes to data. He doesn't even fully understand what the Z score he sticks on his charts mean....how did a guy with an English degree become the stats guy on Sky? Its like Mason the music teacher being the economics editor on Newsnight.
Is this like the case of the NHS using an unsupported version of Windows OS which was hacked?
He's wrong because PHE use Office 365 from what I understand and interfaces I've seen. It has the million rows already. I don't think Excel has been limited to 65k rows for about 15 years.
The media showing again they are as clueless as PHE....
This whack it all in a massive spreadsheet...makes you wonder how they are handling data security.
The home office used to email unecrypted spreadsheets full of this sort of personal info to a company I worked for. The email wasnt encrypted either. So my guess is data security is just as tight and this spreadsheet probably gets routinely emailed around
Still why they had a spreadsheet with all the tests in defies all reason. Get the files daily feed them to the database, Get your report from the database. At best the daily spreadsheets should have been an interim measure. Someone at the PHE lacks a clue
We used to do this for some clients. The CSV was uploaded into a MySQL database in a holding table where verifications and checks could be run. If there was an error, an entire upload could be removed even if it was mixed with other uploads. Once verified the data could be migrated into the main database tables.
It was not rocket science and it worked very well. It may possibly have been "World beating"....
I wish I knew what "going back to being England" meant. I sense a real yearning there but it's impossible to turn the clock back. Is this just the political equivalent of a misty eyed old man indulging in wistful memories of his vigorous youth? Understandable if so - and poignant - but not a viable option.
This whack it all in a massive spreadsheet...makes you wonder how they are handling data security.
The home office used to email unecrypted spreadsheets full of this sort of personal info to a company I worked for. The email wasnt encrypted either. So my guess is data security is just as tight and this spreadsheet probably gets routinely emailed around
Nothing surprises me, we all remember that they used to stick CDs full of uncrypted personal data in the post....
By the way, thanks to everyone from the previous post to replies to the queries about the composition of the NYT / Siena poll and whether there are any odds on buzzwords for the VP debate. @Dura_Ace is right, "Californication" would be the obvious word for Pence to ask but given, as Dura said, his cultural references are stuck in the 50s, I think there is more chance of the Queen's Christmas Speech mentioning the word "rimming"
Is this like the case of the NHS using an unsupported version of Windows OS which was hacked?
But the row limit that caused the issue was a million, so they are using the latest version. What is he on about?
Ed Conway is clueless when it comes to data. He doesn't even fully understand what the Z score he sticks on his charts mean....how did a guy with an English degree become the stats guy on Sky? Its like Mason the music teacher being the economics editor on Newsnight.
If you were a data person would you either work in the city or tech or make bank or work for Sky (or other media) with a bunch of data illiterates and ask questions to politicians who are also as data illiterate.
I can't imagine any situation that would make me want to work news media, it seems like a truly terrible industry.
So, to be clear: Excel (even in modern versions) has a million-row limit.... OK, pretty naff in this day and age, but OK, given that it's not meant to be a serious software system...
But it doesn't give an error if you append a CSV file which would take you over the limit, but just silently truncates it? Really? I knew Excel was bad, but that bad?
Not that surprising he'd say England, he's a legend playing for England, and spent his life involved with England, not the UK.
Technically he was playing for England & Wales.
Indeed but does anyone ever actually say "England and Wales"?
During his time commenting and everything else he does how many times do you think he's had to say "England", how often "England and Wales", and how often "UK"?
I'd guess "England" a literal order of magnitude more than any others. It would naturally be what he'd think to say first.
I watch the England cricket team a lot. I'm in my forties and I don't think I have ever heard them called the England & Wales cricket team.
In fact, it's bonkers that Wales don't have their own team. Such a team might well be better than Scotland and Ireland.
SD = South Dakota? Why so high there? It's solid Republican anyway.
What I think is striking is how few people who requested postal ballots have sent them in so far. We're told that America is deeply polarised and nearly everyone is sure how they'll vote. Why don't they get on with it, like postal voters in the UK generally do?
It may be that some core supporters are switching. I think Yokes suggested as much yesterday when reporting on some polling from PPP. I wouldn't labour the point here though because it just play to the pro-Biden betting consensus and there's a risk that I personally start talking up my book.
We're still waiting for our absentee ballots here in Westchester County, NY. Word is the county mailed them at the end of last week.
If a tradesman comes to your house to repair your fridge and has nothing but a hammer with him, it is obvious to everyone, even Boris, that he is unfit to be a fridge repairman, professional or amateur.
If a data scientist tries to compile the official government SARS-COV2 data and has nothing but Excel, it is obvious ....
It's common to refer to said hammer as the [insert name of city to be dissed, e.g. Birmingham] screwdriver - perhaps we should all start referring to Excel as the 'Whitehall Database'?
The banks got there first. I think I have spent more than half my life trying to remove Excel from the financial operations chain.....
Thank god we managed to kill Access. That was a stake-through-the-heart-with-garlix-and-silver-hollowpoints-just-in-case thing.....
In my old, old life, whenever I was passed someone else's Excel file I would do a quick search for INDIRECT.
If it was in there, you could be 99.9% sure than the spreadsheet would contain major errors.
(True story time. Back in the early 1990s, the most profitable desk at Goldman Sachs London office was Japanese Warrants trading. Every year, it raked up ridiculous, insane profits, despite Japanese warrants only being a pretty small market. Eventually someone worked out why. There was an Excel spreadsheet that calculated how much they needed to hedge their positions. That is, if Goldman Sachs owned lots of Japanese equity warrants, they needed to sell equity futures to balance their risk. And if they were short warrants, then they had to be long the market. Due to an error in the spreadsheet, it was always telling the traders they needed to have massive short positions in the Japanese equity market. As Nikkei was in a serious bear market, this error resulted in the desk making enormous profits.)
Is this like the case of the NHS using an unsupported version of Windows OS which was hacked?
But the row limit that caused the issue was a million, so they are using the latest version. What is he on about?
Ed Conway is clueless when it comes to data. He doesn't even fully understand what the Z score he sticks on his charts mean....how did a guy with an English degree become the stats guy on Sky? Its like Mason the music teacher being the economics editor on Newsnight.
If you were a data person would you either work in the city or tech or make bank or work for Sky (or other media) with a bunch of data illiterates and ask questions to politicians who are also as data illiterate.
I can't imagine any situation that would make me want to work news media, it seems like a truly terrible industry.
Well maybe travel writer that does seem to be being paid to take lots of holidays
Boris does not have the skill set to deal with covid and I assume most conservatives are appalled at the way he has locked down the economy
It is not getting better anytime soon as covid takes hold again and brexit looking touch and go
Rishi's endorsement of Boris today is no doubt an attempt to shore him up but it is not going to work
I hope he sees the writing on the wall and decides to stand down, or the MP's send in the 40 letters to the 1922 Committee
Having said that Macron has plummeted in the polls even more than Boris and Ireland is looking at a new full lockdown
The time must be coming for a GNU and if the politicians were putting the country first they would do it now.
And at the same time do a deal (any deal) with the EU and get a six month implementation extension
Why on earth are you calling for a Government of National Unity? "We have an 80 seat majority and we can do whatever we like" - remember?
The present outfit is not short of votes. It is short of rational policies and of competent politicians. The problem is that any rational policy would not be acceptable to Johnson and his gang of incompetents. And they would not be happy at being obliged to move out and maake way for some competent Lib Dem miinisters (and even some Labour ones too, if their party bosses let them).
Come on, Mr Wales. You voted for them (I think). You must take the responsibility.
The GNU is necessary to help spread the blame and protect his beloved Party from the oncoming disaster that it created.
The truth of the matter is that the Conservatives have been out of power since 2019. The current shower are even remotely Conservative.
From your previous posting that might seem to be a good thing from your POV
Unfortunately, you are correct. It is not something that I thought I would ever say. Myself, from 10 years ago, would never have believed it.
SD = South Dakota? Why so high there? It's solid Republican anyway.
Dunno why it's high there, but it's a tiny electorate in a big place, so maybe it's just convenience.
Maybe the locals have heard Trump's planning to have his ugly mug carved into Mount Rushmore and are piling in to make sure it doesn't happen?
There's a companion "why did we get it wrong" piece to go with the one from the weekend. The how did we miss Biden sweeping to one of the largest victories ever. Taking the entire west and east coast as well as Texas
So, to be clear: Excel (even in modern versions) has a million-row limit.... OK, pretty naff in this day and age, but OK, given that it's not meant to be a serious software system...
But it doesn't give an error if you append a CSV file which would take you over the limit, but just silently truncates it? Really? I knew Excel was bad, but that bad?
It should give you an error, "file not loaded completely", or something similar.
So, to be clear: Excel (even in modern versions) has a million-row limit.... OK, pretty naff in this day and age, but OK, given that it's not meant to be a serious software system...
But it doesn't give an error if you append a CSV file which would take you over the limit, but just silently truncates it? Really? I knew Excel was bad, but that bad?
If its all automated then entirely possible.
Years ago I built a macro in Excel to analyse data from CSVs and I hit the 65k limit. From memory it did indeed continue to work but with the data truncated rather than bugging out. I realised what had happened when the results were wrong.
SD = South Dakota? Why so high there? It's solid Republican anyway.
Dunno why it's high there, but it's a tiny electorate in a big place, so maybe it's just convenience.
Maybe the locals have heard Trump's planning to have his ugly mug carved into Mount Rushmore and are piling in to make sure it doesn't happen?
There's a companion "why did we get it wrong" piece to go with the one from the weekend. The how did we miss Biden sweeping to one of the largest victories ever. Taking the entire west and east coast as well as Texas
I haven't missed it. It's distinctly possible. There's not a lot of point discussing it though because the consequences are so obvious (one of these being I become a good deal better off.)
It's my 30% expectation. I'll be a bit disappointed with a 'solid but not spectacular' outcome.
I'll settle for getting rid of the bastard. Some things are more important even than my bank balance. As it happens, I think Biden just about has it so I can start daydreaming about scenarios involving a Democrat win in Taxas and Alaska but if you offered 270 ECVs right now I'd take it.
I think Johnson is an absurdity as PM but I also consider the view he is likely to be gone soon to be wildly off beam. Just 10 months ago he won a general election by 80 seats. The best majority for the Conservatives since 1980s Thatcher in her pomp. He did so from a position 6 months prior on assuming the leadership where the party looked to be - was - in a hole. It was a personal triumph. A complete vindication of the ghastly man and his ghastly methods.
He will not be stepping down voluntarily. People in top jobs do not relinquish power and status except for health reasons and there is no reason to expect that here. He does not have long Covid. Neither will he be forced out by his party for the foreseeable future. The earliest it could happen is 2023 and only then if (i) he has become a clear electoral liability and (ii) there is a replacement guaranteed to be more popular.
So, there is a Betfair market, Boris Johnson exit date, and "July 2022 or later" can be backed at 1.8. I think that is outstanding value. It should be more like 1.33.
If any of the punters here take the opposite view and think it should be longer and the value is in the other direction - the lay - I have money there at 1.85 looking for a match. £50 for starters but with appetite for more. Just hit me.
Or do it privately on here and save the comm/tying up the money
An option but it's a long timeframe and with Betfair I can close to flat when it's down to 1.3 next Spring.
You can still do that if you've had the original bet on here cant you?
Only if the people are still around and we can agree on a close price. Otherwise I get exposure in different places and it's a bit messy.
So, to be clear: Excel (even in modern versions) has a million-row limit.... OK, pretty naff in this day and age, but OK, given that it's not meant to be a serious software system...
But it doesn't give an error if you append a CSV file which would take you over the limit, but just silently truncates it? Really? I knew Excel was bad, but that bad?
It should give you an error, "file not loaded completely", or something similar.
Hmm, from memory it does simply truncate the file.
It has just struck me that those who think the virus lockdown rules are too strict are similar, very similar, to those who think immigration problems are exaggerated.
They say the numbers wont be as high as predicted, then, when they are, or almost are, they say the number doesn't really matter because it's not that bad anyway.
Noteworthy, I think, because it is not the same people doing it
... As it happens, I think Biden just about has it so I can start daydreaming about scenarios involving a Democrat win in Taxas and Alaska but if you offered 270 ECVs right now I'd take it.
So, to be clear: Excel (even in modern versions) has a million-row limit.... OK, pretty naff in this day and age, but OK, given that it's not meant to be a serious software system...
But it doesn't give an error if you append a CSV file which would take you over the limit, but just silently truncates it? Really? I knew Excel was bad, but that bad?
Just tested it and got a dialog up with an exclamation and the message file not loaded completely which you have to ok away
So, to be clear: Excel (even in modern versions) has a million-row limit.... OK, pretty naff in this day and age, but OK, given that it's not meant to be a serious software system...
But it doesn't give an error if you append a CSV file which would take you over the limit, but just silently truncates it? Really? I knew Excel was bad, but that bad?
It should give you an error, "file not loaded completely", or something similar.
Hmm, from memory it does simply truncate the file.
At least on the Mac you get a warning you are being stupid (2million csv import):
It has just struck me that those who think the virus lockdown rules are too strict are similar, very similar, to those who think immigration problems are exaggerated.
They say the numbers wont be as high as predicted, then, when they are, or almost are, they say the number doesn't really matter because it's not that bad anyway.
Noteworthy, I think, because it is not the same people doing it
It's not necessarily the same people no. But I don't believe the cleavages are entirely that precise.
So, to be clear: Excel (even in modern versions) has a million-row limit.... OK, pretty naff in this day and age, but OK, given that it's not meant to be a serious software system...
But it doesn't give an error if you append a CSV file which would take you over the limit, but just silently truncates it? Really? I knew Excel was bad, but that bad?
Just tested it and got a dialog up with an exclamation and the message file not loaded completely which you have to ok away
In that case the explanation in this Guardian article doesn't make sense (unless some half-wit ignored the error):
But while CSV files can be any size, Microsoft Excel files can only be 1,048,576 rows long. When a CSV file longer than that is opened, the bottom rows get cut off and are no longer displayed.
So, to be clear: Excel (even in modern versions) has a million-row limit.... OK, pretty naff in this day and age, but OK, given that it's not meant to be a serious software system...
But it doesn't give an error if you append a CSV file which would take you over the limit, but just silently truncates it? Really? I knew Excel was bad, but that bad?
Opening .csv files in Excel is possible, but I would say under no circumstances should you do it. (If you want to take a peek on a Windows machine use Notepad++.) There are lots of bad things that can happen if you use Excel.
So, to be clear: Excel (even in modern versions) has a million-row limit.... OK, pretty naff in this day and age, but OK, given that it's not meant to be a serious software system...
But it doesn't give an error if you append a CSV file which would take you over the limit, but just silently truncates it? Really? I knew Excel was bad, but that bad?
It should give you an error, "file not loaded completely", or something similar.
I think Johnson is an absurdity as PM but I also consider the view he is likely to be gone soon to be wildly off beam. Just 10 months ago he won a general election by 80 seats. The best majority for the Conservatives since 1980s Thatcher in her pomp. He did so from a position 6 months prior on assuming the leadership where the party looked to be - was - in a hole. It was a personal triumph. A complete vindication of the ghastly man and his ghastly methods.
He will not be stepping down voluntarily. People in top jobs do not relinquish power and status except for health reasons and there is no reason to expect that here. He does not have long Covid. Neither will he be forced out by his party for the foreseeable future. The earliest it could happen is 2023 and only then if (i) he has become a clear electoral liability and (ii) there is a replacement guaranteed to be more popular.
So, there is a Betfair market, Boris Johnson exit date, and "July 2022 or later" can be backed at 1.8. I think that is outstanding value. It should be more like 1.33.
If any of the punters here take the opposite view and think it should be longer and the value is in the other direction - the lay - I have money there at 1.85 looking for a match. £50 for starters but with appetite for more. Just hit me.
Or do it privately on here and save the comm/tying up the money
An option but it's a long timeframe and with Betfair I can close to flat when it's down to 1.3 next Spring.
You can still do that if you've had the original bet on here cant you?
Only if the people are still around and we can agree on a close price. Otherwise I get exposure in different places and it's a bit messy.
Yeah I meant exposure in different places. Not that bad really, the same as having a bet w a bookie and laying it off later on BF. Your prerogative obvs
So, to be clear: Excel (even in modern versions) has a million-row limit.... OK, pretty naff in this day and age, but OK, given that it's not meant to be a serious software system...
But it doesn't give an error if you append a CSV file which would take you over the limit, but just silently truncates it? Really? I knew Excel was bad, but that bad?
Opening .csv files in Excel is possible, but I would say under no circumstances should you do it. (If you want to take a peek on a Windows machine use Notepad++.) There are lots of bad things that can happen if you use Excel.
I looked at the cases by specimen date chart. It looks like there's still some cases missing. Unless the jump between the 27th and 28th was due to some university term related thing.
Not that surprising he'd say England, he's a legend playing for England, and spent his life involved with England, not the UK.
Not sure what that has to do with immigration into the UK, but if you're saying that Beefy is unable to distinguish between England and the UK, I agree.
Is this like the case of the NHS using an unsupported version of Windows OS which was hacked?
He's wrong because PHE use Office 365 from what I understand and interfaces I've seen. It has the million rows already. I don't think Excel has been limited to 65k rows for about 15 years.
65K or 1 million is not the issue. The issue is that Excel was the wrong tool for the job. This data should have been supplied directly into a database where some form of integrity check could have been performed.
Even something as simple as verifying the number of records inserted would be a help.
So, to be clear: Excel (even in modern versions) has a million-row limit.... OK, pretty naff in this day and age, but OK, given that it's not meant to be a serious software system...
But it doesn't give an error if you append a CSV file which would take you over the limit, but just silently truncates it? Really? I knew Excel was bad, but that bad?
Just tested it and got a dialog up with an exclamation and the message file not loaded completely which you have to ok away
In that case the explanation in this Guardian article doesn't make sense (unless some half-wit ignored the error):
But while CSV files can be any size, Microsoft Excel files can only be 1,048,576 rows long. When a CSV file longer than that is opened, the bottom rows get cut off and are no longer displayed.
Some underpaid intern just hitting enter until the data goes into Excel? I've done that before.
So, to be clear: Excel (even in modern versions) has a million-row limit.... OK, pretty naff in this day and age, but OK, given that it's not meant to be a serious software system...
But it doesn't give an error if you append a CSV file which would take you over the limit, but just silently truncates it? Really? I knew Excel was bad, but that bad?
Opening .csv files in Excel is possible, but I would say under no circumstances should you do it. (If you want to take a peek on a Windows machine use Notepad++.) There are lots of bad things that can happen if you use Excel.
Atom is better than Notepad++....
I like Sublime text as well, it's good for CSV editing.
Is this like the case of the NHS using an unsupported version of Windows OS which was hacked?
He's wrong because PHE use Office 365 from what I understand and interfaces I've seen. It has the million rows already. I don't think Excel has been limited to 65k rows for about 15 years.
65K or 1 million is not the issue. The issue is that Excel was the wrong tool for the job. This data should have been supplied directly into a database where some form of integrity check could have been performed.
Even something as simple as verifying the number of records inserted would be a help.
You'll get no argument from me on that. I can understand preparing CSVs for upload in Excel. Using it as an analysis tool or as a faux database is not a good idea. Not when databases exist.
So, to be clear: Excel (even in modern versions) has a million-row limit.... OK, pretty naff in this day and age, but OK, given that it's not meant to be a serious software system...
But it doesn't give an error if you append a CSV file which would take you over the limit, but just silently truncates it? Really? I knew Excel was bad, but that bad?
Opening .csv files in Excel is possible, but I would say under no circumstances should you do it. (If you want to take a peek on a Windows machine use Notepad++.) There are lots of bad things that can happen if you use Excel.
Atom is better than Notepad++....
I like Sublime text as well, it's good for CSV editing.
I have always been put off by the $70-80 cost. Seems very steep for a text editor.
So, to be clear: Excel (even in modern versions) has a million-row limit.... OK, pretty naff in this day and age, but OK, given that it's not meant to be a serious software system...
But it doesn't give an error if you append a CSV file which would take you over the limit, but just silently truncates it? Really? I knew Excel was bad, but that bad?
Just tested it and got a dialog up with an exclamation and the message file not loaded completely which you have to ok away
In that case the explanation in this Guardian article doesn't make sense (unless some half-wit ignored the error):
But while CSV files can be any size, Microsoft Excel files can only be 1,048,576 rows long. When a CSV file longer than that is opened, the bottom rows get cut off and are no longer displayed.
Or the load was part of a macro with warnings turned off (Application.DisplayAlerts = False)
If a tradesman comes to your house to repair your fridge and has nothing but a hammer with him, it is obvious to everyone, even Boris, that he is unfit to be a fridge repairman, professional or amateur.
If a data scientist tries to compile the official government SARS-COV2 data and has nothing but Excel, it is obvious ....
It's common to refer to said hammer as the [insert name of city to be dissed, e.g. Birmingham] screwdriver - perhaps we should all start referring to Excel as the 'Whitehall Database'?
The banks got there first. I think I have spent more than half my life trying to remove Excel from the financial operations chain.....
Thank god we managed to kill Access. That was a stake-through-the-heart-with-garlix-and-silver-hollowpoints-just-in-case thing.....
In my old, old life, whenever I was passed someone else's Excel file I would do a quick search for INDIRECT.
If it was in there, you could be 99.9% sure than the spreadsheet would contain major errors.
(True story time. Back in the early 1990s, the most profitable desk at Goldman Sachs London office was Japanese Warrants trading. Every year, it raked up ridiculous, insane profits, despite Japanese warrants only being a pretty small market. Eventually someone worked out why. There was an Excel spreadsheet that calculated how much they needed to hedge their positions. That is, if Goldman Sachs owned lots of Japanese equity warrants, they needed to sell equity futures to balance their risk. And if they were short warrants, then they had to be long the market. Due to an error in the spreadsheet, it was always telling the traders they needed to have massive short positions in the Japanese equity market. As Nikkei was in a serious bear market, this error resulted in the desk making enormous profits.)
Masters of the Universe! ☺
Nick Leeson didn't use something like that, did he?
So, to be clear: Excel (even in modern versions) has a million-row limit.... OK, pretty naff in this day and age, but OK, given that it's not meant to be a serious software system...
But it doesn't give an error if you append a CSV file which would take you over the limit, but just silently truncates it? Really? I knew Excel was bad, but that bad?
Opening .csv files in Excel is possible, but I would say under no circumstances should you do it. (If you want to take a peek on a Windows machine use Notepad++.) There are lots of bad things that can happen if you use Excel.
Atom is better than Notepad++....
They arent the same sort of thing though
Notepad++ is just a text editor and yes I know you can add on things for syntax colouring Atom is trying to be a dev environment
Not that surprising he'd say England, he's a legend playing for England, and spent his life involved with England, not the UK.
Technically he was playing for England & Wales.
Indeed but does anyone ever actually say "England and Wales"?
During his time commenting and everything else he does how many times do you think he's had to say "England", how often "England and Wales", and how often "UK"?
I'd guess "England" a literal order of magnitude more than any others. It would naturally be what he'd think to say first.
True. It's like when people conveniently forget that it's the Conservative and Unionist Party when it doesn't suit their argument to recall it.
Is this like the case of the NHS using an unsupported version of Windows OS which was hacked?
He's wrong because PHE use Office 365 from what I understand and interfaces I've seen. It has the million rows already. I don't think Excel has been limited to 65k rows for about 15 years.
65K or 1 million is not the issue. The issue is that Excel was the wrong tool for the job. This data should have been supplied directly into a database where some form of integrity check could have been performed.
Even something as simple as verifying the number of records inserted would be a help.
Maybe getting someone with IT training and experience involved rather than a bunch of £2k per day McKinsey grads would have helped.
I would point out that pollsters got 2012 wrong because they assumed some reversion to the mean for African American turnout.
What is HS turnout not only doesn't mean revert, but instead becomes even greater?
Then the (high quality) polls will be spot on.
I am not an expert on polling methodology but there seem some unusual findings in ones, particularly at the state level. For example, looking at the CBS / YouGov breakdowns:
It polls Registered Voters, 89% of say they will Definitely Vote. That doesn't sound right, especially when you look at the NYT poll for PA which only has likely voters which gives a figure of 77% (which is actually "Almost Certain")
Comments
Move over Georgie Best and Diego Armando Maradona!
Incidentally I see Nate has just tweaked Trump down to 18% - or 9/2 in traditional bookies fractions. Other models are available, mostly suggesting bigger prices.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/05/how-excel-may-have-caused-loss-of-16000-covid-tests-in-england
He hasn't made America great again.
He hasn't built the Wall.
He hasn't locked her up.
Only people locked up are his 2016 campaign team.
Yes, that's exactly what they are doing...
Drain the Swamp is also a corker!
What is HS turnout not only doesn't mean revert, but instead becomes even greater?
But the current shambolic government and its handing of covid..... They do not have a policy which lasts from one day to the next.... And they didn´t even try to stop the import of the virus through the airports. Quarentining is entirely voluntary. And the rules they have made up all apply to us, not to them. To say that Johnson´s government is useless is a understatement - and still you seem to support them.
Is this like the case of the NHS using an unsupported version of Windows OS which was hacked?
"The only place this guy is going is County Jail"
Edit: pretty sure I saw a tweet earlier from someone in IT who had refered PHE to information commissioner for this very reason.
What is HS?
During his time commenting and everything else he does how many times do you think he's had to say "England", how often "England and Wales", and how often "UK"?
I'd guess "England" a literal order of magnitude more than any others. It would naturally be what he'd think to say first.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/coronavirus-coalition-will-not-sanction-level-5-for-entire-country-1.4372315
level 1) Automating data entry directly from the labs to remove as much human error as possible from the system
level 2) Having the labs software export a csv which is then scripted straight to the database on receipt automatically
Level 3) Have someone manually upload CSV's to the database as they come in
Level 4) Use a spreadsheet to collate the CSV's for the day then export one csv to the DB
Level 5) Use an excel spreadsheet to collate all tests ever and introduce the human error of only copying the latest results from the bottom
Level 6) Use excel to collate all csvs ever, export the latest to the db but use the spreadsheet to generate your report data which is what they appear to have been upto....bonus incompetence marks for using excel without checking limitations, lose a few incompetence marks for at least using rows not columns.
It was not rocket science and it worked very well. It may possibly have been "World beating"....
http://www.rothbiz.co.uk/2017/05/news-5571-former-rotherham-council-boss.html
I can't imagine any situation that would make me want to work news media, it seems like a truly terrible industry.
But it doesn't give an error if you append a CSV file which would take you over the limit, but just silently truncates it? Really? I knew Excel was bad, but that bad?
In fact, it's bonkers that Wales don't have their own team. Such a team might well be better than Scotland and Ireland.
Years ago I built a macro in Excel to analyse data from CSVs and I hit the 65k limit. From memory it did indeed continue to work but with the data truncated rather than bugging out. I realised what had happened when the results were wrong.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1313130905163247616?s=19
They say the numbers wont be as high as predicted, then, when they are, or almost are, they say the number doesn't really matter because it's not that bad anyway.
Noteworthy, I think, because it is not the same people doing it
https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1313127847972790276?s=19
https://i.imgur.com/ucq6g0R.png
But I don't believe the cleavages are entirely that precise.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/05/how-excel-may-have-caused-loss-of-16000-covid-tests-in-england
But while CSV files can be any size, Microsoft Excel files can only be 1,048,576 rows long. When a CSV file longer than that is opened, the bottom rows get cut off and are no longer displayed.
The Covid Stats site was updated at 4.00 pm.
Even something as simple as verifying the number of records inserted would be a help.
Notepad++ is just a text editor and yes I know you can add on things for syntax colouring
Atom is trying to be a dev environment
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hSdIHlv2MgUGngDTUCG4UK2D_11Asbfk/view
It polls Registered Voters, 89% of say they will Definitely Vote. That doesn't sound right, especially when you look at the NYT poll for PA which only has likely voters which gives a figure of 77% (which is actually "Almost Certain")