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Johnson gets negative satisfaction ratings from Tory party members – politicalbetting.com

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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,897

    The Prime Minister has urged people to return to cinemas following news Cineworld is temporarily closing its UK and US venues, affecting 45,000 jobs.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54387856

    To be fair, I've seen no advertising from cinemas - I'd have thought being a reasonably safe form of public entertainment (sitting facing one way in a socially distant fashion) they'd have fought a bit more.
    Tenet is the only release over the summer I've come across
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Alistair said:
    I find it difficult to figure out the official explanation for these various voter suppression methods (never mind the actual motivation behind them).
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    2 hour queue for early voting in Myrtle beach, South Carolina

    https://twitter.com/mejay227/status/1313142682991108101

    They have masks on so Dem voters.
    It could be Lindsey Graham’s personal vote.



    They turned out early to vote against him.
    If I was Lindsey Graham I would be bricking it right now.
    He's been bricking it and virtually begging on live TV for weeks. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.
    The 6 Senate polls conducted in the state over the past month have all been neck and neck. Yet strangely, 538 still have Graham winning by 6%.
  • eristdoof said:

    nichomar said:

    Trump is in charge of an arsenal which could destroy a large chunk of mankind in minutes. The fact that he is being prescribed a drug which can induce psychosis and mania is deeply worrying.

    The military Will have disconnected his box and changed the codes
    I've always assumed there are, in reality, some layers of checks on this. It's always possible any President (or PM) has some sort of breakdown or psychotic episode, and that they couldn't in practice just launch a nuclear missile at 2am on a wet Tuesday.

    I'm not surprised they don't publicise what the procedures are precisely, but I'd be surprised (as well as terrified) if it was quite such a simple process as one man tapping in some codes.
    There is a chain, and the president is part of that chain. If the president suddenly decides to bomb Kuala Lumpur just for fun, it's not going to happen.
    There is a chain, but if the president says 'Fire' then everyone beneath him is obliged to go through with it. (If the president has gone nuts then your only hope is that someone realizes it and decides to disobey orders.) It was designed like that because you can't have a functioning deterrent, what with the small timespan you have to react, if it has to be agreed by committee.
    There is a 2 man rule at each stage in the chain - the Presidents launch order has to be verified by the Sec. Def.
    Not according to this:

    Note that the secretary of defense does not confirm the president’s decision, nor does he or she have a right to veto it, nor does anyone else have the authority to override the decision. This is what Elaine Scarry has identified as, in effect, a “thermonuclear monarchy,” which gives the US president almost carte blanche command over the nuclear forces.

    https://www.wagingpeace.org/protocol-u-s-nuclear-strike/

    Yes, the site has an anti-nuke agenda, but that's what I've always understood from other sources.
    Generals have said the opposite.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-42065714
    I think that rather makes my point - you've got to hope that a maverick general decides to disobey the law.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Pulpstar said:

    The Prime Minister has urged people to return to cinemas following news Cineworld is temporarily closing its UK and US venues, affecting 45,000 jobs.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54387856

    To be fair, I've seen no advertising from cinemas - I'd have thought being a reasonably safe form of public entertainment (sitting facing one way in a socially distant fashion) they'd have fought a bit more.
    Tenet is the only release over the summer I've come across
    Bill and Ted 3?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428
    Alistair said:

    Filed under LOL Democracy

    twitter.com/pashulman/status/1313157479216406530?s=19

    These people think this is a game, don’t they?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    Alistair said:
    Ohio goes into the Trump column.
  • nico679 said:

    New NY Times/Siena poll for Arizona .

    Biden 49

    Trump 41

    The sample had a 2016 recall vote of plus 6 for Trump which is bigger than the actual result of plus 4.

    Also an A+ rated pollster by 538, with about half the polling coming after Trump had fessed up to catching the plague, so another pointer to Trump going backwards nationally.
    Biden was +9 in the previous Siena for Arizona, so a 1% drop back but I don't think that will keep Joe awake tonite.
  • I think it's important to understand that all that dreadful Holocaust bothering that we do over here, is just a function of us being a freedom hating country, unlike freedom loving Blighty.

    So it's just a matter of common sense and decency that you shouldn't suffer from such a dreadful impingement on the right to free speech.

    Hail Lozza.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360

    nichomar said:

    Trump is in charge of an arsenal which could destroy a large chunk of mankind in minutes. The fact that he is being prescribed a drug which can induce psychosis and mania is deeply worrying.

    The military Will have disconnected his box and changed the codes
    I've always assumed there are, in reality, some layers of checks on this. It's always possible any President (or PM) has some sort of breakdown or psychotic episode, and that they couldn't in practice just launch a nuclear missile at 2am on a wet Tuesday.

    I'm not surprised they don't publicise what the procedures are precisely, but I'd be surprised (as well as terrified) if it was quite such a simple process as one man tapping in some codes.
    I kind of hope that at the end of the line is a bloke with a box of matches looking at the blue touch paper and saying to himself 'Let's just wait a bit shall we?'

  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    Dems need to hammer the message if the WH can’t control the virus under its own roof how can you trust them to get control of it nationally .

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    I think it's important to understand that all that dreadful Holocaust bothering that we do over here, is just a function of us being a freedom hating country, unlike freedom loving Blighty.

    So it's just a matter of common sense and decency that you shouldn't suffer from such a dreadful impingement on the right to free speech.

    Hail Lozza.
    He must have been furious for years that swastikas couldn't be shown in videogames too. ALthough in fairness that was mostly just amusing.
  • MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    Talk about not quite "getting" the historical weight of anti-black racism -

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-54419760

    What's hilarious about it is that it was a black guy who came up with the workout routine. 😆
    I notice that pertinent fact is being omitted from the media reports on this.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    TimT said:

    If Trump is up by just 4 in Ohio in a Trafalgar Group poll, he is in deep shit:

    https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/oh-pres-1020/

    That's understating it a tad. If Trump is up by just 4 in Ohio in any poll, he's already wading through a field of cow manure, given that he won there by 8 there in 2016. If he's up by just 4 in Ohio in a Trafalgar poll, he's fallen into the silage tank.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TimT said:

    If Trump is up by just 4 in Ohio in a Trafalgar Group poll, he is in deep shit:

    https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/oh-pres-1020/

    That was my thought too.
    How was Hillary doing in Ohio at the same juncture I wonder......Up a couple....??

    And look at those undecideds.....
    Trump was forecast to win Ohio.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/

    Tossup this time round:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ohio/

    Trafalgar has Trump over Hillary by four in 2016 too but closer to the vote (24 October), for what its worth.
    Trafalgar polls are not worth a great deal.

    If they failed to show cross-tables, but were broadly in line with other pollsters, they'd have some credibility; or, if they did show sensible cross-tables and were out of line with other pollsters, you would again say they may have some merit. But they are miles out from everyone else and don't show workings, so it's in the round filing cabinet for them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    Pulpstar said:

    The Prime Minister has urged people to return to cinemas following news Cineworld is temporarily closing its UK and US venues, affecting 45,000 jobs.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54387856

    To be fair, I've seen no advertising from cinemas - I'd have thought being a reasonably safe form of public entertainment (sitting facing one way in a socially distant fashion) they'd have fought a bit more.
    Tenet is the only release over the summer I've come across
    Yes, just seen it, good but complicated plot like most Nolan films.

    The next big release is Death on the Nile in December I believe
  • kle4 said:

    I think it's important to understand that all that dreadful Holocaust bothering that we do over here, is just a function of us being a freedom hating country, unlike freedom loving Blighty.

    So it's just a matter of common sense and decency that you shouldn't suffer from such a dreadful impingement on the right to free speech.

    Hail Lozza.
    He must have been furious for years that swastikas couldn't be shown in videogames too. ALthough in fairness that was mostly just amusing.
    Will the Reclaim party be a refuge for disenfranchised Momentum members? Answers in a tweet to Lozza's twitter timeline, please.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    edited October 2020
    TimT said:

    If Trump is up by just 4 in Ohio in a Trafalgar Group poll, he is in deep shit:

    https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/oh-pres-1020/

    Ohio is of course the key swing state, the only state to have voted for the winner in every Presidential election since 1960.

    Now that could change this year and Biden could win the Electoral College with Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin or 2 of those plus Arizona but he would be the first candidate to win the Presidency having lost Ohio since Kennedy.

    So I would say Trump being up by 4% in Ohio is good news for the President in the sense he is unlikely to lose by a landslide but bad news for the President in the sense it is still not enough for him to win
  • How much UNS or how little UNS are we thinking we'll see on November 3rd?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    nico679 said:

    New NY Times/Siena poll for Arizona .

    Biden 49

    Trump 41

    The sample had a 2016 recall vote of plus 6 for Trump which is bigger than the actual result of plus 4.

    Also an A+ rated pollster by 538, with about half the polling coming after Trump had fessed up to catching the plague, so another pointer to Trump going backwards nationally.
    Biden was +9 in the previous Siena for Arizona, so a 1% drop back but I don't think that will keep Joe awake tonite.
    As a reminder people,

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states-2020-vs-2016/

    OK, it's RCP so I realise they may not have the polls but...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    edited October 2020

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TimT said:

    If Trump is up by just 4 in Ohio in a Trafalgar Group poll, he is in deep shit:

    https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/oh-pres-1020/

    That was my thought too.
    How was Hillary doing in Ohio at the same juncture I wonder......Up a couple....??

    And look at those undecideds.....
    Trump was forecast to win Ohio.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/

    Tossup this time round:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ohio/

    Trafalgar has Trump over Hillary by four in 2016 too but closer to the vote (24 October), for what its worth.
    Trafalgar polls are not worth a great deal.

    If they failed to show cross-tables, but were broadly in line with other pollsters, they'd have some credibility; or, if they did show sensible cross-tables and were out of line with other pollsters, you would again say they may have some merit. But they are miles out from everyone else and don't show workings, so it's in the round filing cabinet for them.
    Wrong, Trafalgar Group are the gold standard pollsters for the Electoral College at the moment, the only pollster to correctly have had Trump ahead in Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016.

    They are the Survation of US pollsters, Survation of course being the only pollster to get 2017 right and 2019 right (and 2015 in their final non released poll)
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    TimT said:

    If Trump is up by just 4 in Ohio in a Trafalgar Group poll, he is in deep shit:

    https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/oh-pres-1020/

    That's understating it a tad. If Trump is up by just 4 in Ohio in any poll, he's already wading through a field of cow manure, given that he won there by 8 there in 2016. If he's up by just 4 in Ohio in a Trafalgar poll, he's fallen into the silage tank.
    slurry tank. Silage is just grass and black treacle.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,173
    edited October 2020
    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Prime Minister has urged people to return to cinemas following news Cineworld is temporarily closing its UK and US venues, affecting 45,000 jobs.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54387856

    To be fair, I've seen no advertising from cinemas - I'd have thought being a reasonably safe form of public entertainment (sitting facing one way in a socially distant fashion) they'd have fought a bit more.
    Tenet is the only release over the summer I've come across
    Bill and Ted 3?
    The last film I went to see in the cinema was the South Korean blockbuster in February. It was very good. (Forgotten the name of it).
  • Andy_JS said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Prime Minister has urged people to return to cinemas following news Cineworld is temporarily closing its UK and US venues, affecting 45,000 jobs.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54387856

    To be fair, I've seen no advertising from cinemas - I'd have thought being a reasonably safe form of public entertainment (sitting facing one way in a socially distant fashion) they'd have fought a bit more.
    Tenet is the only release over the summer I've come across
    Bill and Ted 3?
    The last film I went to see in the cinema was the South Korean blockbuster in February. It was very good. (Forgotten the name of it).
    Parasite.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,113

    Andy_JS said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Prime Minister has urged people to return to cinemas following news Cineworld is temporarily closing its UK and US venues, affecting 45,000 jobs.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54387856

    To be fair, I've seen no advertising from cinemas - I'd have thought being a reasonably safe form of public entertainment (sitting facing one way in a socially distant fashion) they'd have fought a bit more.
    Tenet is the only release over the summer I've come across
    Bill and Ted 3?
    The last film I went to see in the cinema was the South Korean blockbuster in February. It was very good. (Forgotten the name of it).
    Parasite.
    Odd but very good
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    I wonder if WE should have a criminal offence of "racist legacy of Empire" denial. 30 days in Ford Open. Focus on rehabilitation rather than punishment.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    Talk about not quite "getting" the historical weight of anti-black racism -

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-54419760

    What's hilarious about it is that it was a black guy who came up with the workout routine. 😆
    Why is that hilarious? Please explain.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774

    Andy_JS said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Prime Minister has urged people to return to cinemas following news Cineworld is temporarily closing its UK and US venues, affecting 45,000 jobs.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54387856

    To be fair, I've seen no advertising from cinemas - I'd have thought being a reasonably safe form of public entertainment (sitting facing one way in a socially distant fashion) they'd have fought a bit more.
    Tenet is the only release over the summer I've come across
    Bill and Ted 3?
    The last film I went to see in the cinema was the South Korean blockbuster in February. It was very good. (Forgotten the name of it).
    Parasite.
    Seems a bit of an overreaction if you ask me.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800
    HYUFD said:

    TimT said:

    If Trump is up by just 4 in Ohio in a Trafalgar Group poll, he is in deep shit:

    https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/oh-pres-1020/

    Ohio is of course the key swing state, the only state to have voted for the winner in every Presidential election since 1960.

    Now that could change this year and Biden could win the Electoral College with Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin or 2 of those plus Arizona but he would be the first candidate to win the Presidency having lost Ohio since Kennedy.

    So I would say Trump being up by 4% in Ohio is good news for the President in the sense he is unlikely to lose by a landslide but bad news for the President in the sense it is still not enough for him to win
    Well, that's the C- rated Trafalgar so perhaps the truism a broken clock is right twice a day can apply to pollsters as well.

    With their in-built Republican bias a 4-point for Trump in a state he won by 8 last time suggests a 2% swing to Biden and a national lead of 6 points.

    The A+ New York Times/Siena pollster puts Biden 8 ahead in Arizona:

    https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/az100120-crosstabs/a77605c32cd8f31e/full.pdf

    The Senate battle looks to be turning against McSally with Kelly establishing a solid lead.

    Delaware is no one's idea of a battleground state. In 2016, Clinton won by 12 and a poll by the University of Delaware (albeit an old poll with sampling with 21/9 to 27/9) has Biden up by 21 s0o a 4.5% swing to the Democrats suggesting a double digit national lead.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    Andy_JS said:

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Prime Minister has urged people to return to cinemas following news Cineworld is temporarily closing its UK and US venues, affecting 45,000 jobs.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54387856

    To be fair, I've seen no advertising from cinemas - I'd have thought being a reasonably safe form of public entertainment (sitting facing one way in a socially distant fashion) they'd have fought a bit more.
    Tenet is the only release over the summer I've come across
    Bill and Ted 3?
    The last film I went to see in the cinema was the South Korean blockbuster in February. It was very good. (Forgotten the name of it).
    Parasite.
    Seems a bit harsh. Or do you know something extra about Andy’s circumstances?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    edited October 2020
    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    Talk about not quite "getting" the historical weight of anti-black racism -

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-54419760

    What's hilarious about it is that it was a black guy who came up with the workout routine. 😆
    Why is that hilarious? Please explain.
    He called it that. PureGym probably thought they were in the clear with the wokerati because of that but didn't account for faux offence taken by liberal whites on behalf of other races.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TimT said:

    If Trump is up by just 4 in Ohio in a Trafalgar Group poll, he is in deep shit:

    https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/oh-pres-1020/

    That was my thought too.
    How was Hillary doing in Ohio at the same juncture I wonder......Up a couple....??

    And look at those undecideds.....
    Trump was forecast to win Ohio.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/

    Tossup this time round:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ohio/

    Trafalgar has Trump over Hillary by four in 2016 too but closer to the vote (24 October), for what its worth.
    Trafalgar polls are not worth a great deal.

    If they failed to show cross-tables, but were broadly in line with other pollsters, they'd have some credibility; or, if they did show sensible cross-tables and were out of line with other pollsters, you would again say they may have some merit. But they are miles out from everyone else and don't show workings, so it's in the round filing cabinet for them.
    Wrong, Trafalgar Group are the gold standard pollsters for the Electoral College at the moment, the only pollster to correctly have had Trump ahead in Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016.

    They are the Survation of US pollsters, Survation of course being the only pollster to get 2017 right and 2019 right (and 2015 in their final non released poll)
    As long as you ignore all the polling they got wrong then they are indeed very good.

    The only pollster to pickup the 18-24 year old demo breaking heavily for Trump.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TimT said:

    If Trump is up by just 4 in Ohio in a Trafalgar Group poll, he is in deep shit:

    https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/oh-pres-1020/

    That was my thought too.
    How was Hillary doing in Ohio at the same juncture I wonder......Up a couple....??

    And look at those undecideds.....
    Trump was forecast to win Ohio.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/

    Tossup this time round:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ohio/

    Trafalgar has Trump over Hillary by four in 2016 too but closer to the vote (24 October), for what its worth.
    Trafalgar polls are not worth a great deal.

    If they failed to show cross-tables, but were broadly in line with other pollsters, they'd have some credibility; or, if they did show sensible cross-tables and were out of line with other pollsters, you would again say they may have some merit. But they are miles out from everyone else and don't show workings, so it's in the round filing cabinet for them.
    Wrong, Trafalgar Group are the gold standard pollsters for the Electoral College at the moment, the only pollster to correctly have had Trump ahead in Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016.

    They are the Survation of US pollsters, Survation of course being the only pollster to get 2017 right and 2019 right (and 2015 in their final non released poll)
    You're chasing your own tail.
  • Jonathan said:

    To be fair, would you trust Trump to remember the code. Then again, that’s worrying too. He has probably written it down or changed it to 1vanka.

    whereas Joe Biden....
    Ironic that it turns out the true "demented vegetable" is NOT Biden, but instead Trumpsky.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,456
    IshmaelZ said:

    TimT said:

    If Trump is up by just 4 in Ohio in a Trafalgar Group poll, he is in deep shit:

    https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/oh-pres-1020/

    That's understating it a tad. If Trump is up by just 4 in Ohio in any poll, he's already wading through a field of cow manure, given that he won there by 8 there in 2016. If he's up by just 4 in Ohio in a Trafalgar poll, he's fallen into the silage tank.
    slurry tank. Silage is just grass and black treacle.
    Or perhaps the midden
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,173
    edited October 2020
    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    Talk about not quite "getting" the historical weight of anti-black racism -

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-54419760

    What's hilarious about it is that it was a black guy who came up with the workout routine. 😆
    Why is that hilarious? Please explain.
    He called it that. PureGym probably thought they were in the clear with the wokerati because of that but didn't account for faux offence taken by liberal whites on behalf of other races.
    He could redeem himself by explaining it only refers to white slavery, ie. white people being made slaves in Morocco, etc.
  • I think it's important to understand that all that dreadful Holocaust bothering that we do over here, is just a function of us being a freedom hating country, unlike freedom loving Blighty.

    So it's just a matter of common sense and decency that you shouldn't suffer from such a dreadful impingement on the right to free speech.

    Hail Lozza.
    From a philosophical point of view I certainly agree that people should be able to deny the truth if they want to do so. The rest of us should then be able to determine if they are batshit crazy (like Holocaust deniers are) or if our assumed truth is wrong (like Copernicus).

    However I doubt that's where Fox is coming from.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited October 2020
    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    Talk about not quite "getting" the historical weight of anti-black racism -

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-54419760

    What's hilarious about it is that it was a black guy who came up with the workout routine. 😆
    Why is that hilarious? Please explain.
    He called it that. PureGym probably thought they were in the clear with the wokerati because of that but didn't account for faux offence taken by liberal whites on behalf of other races.
    Social media outrage bus has been full on racist, its racist, made by a racist, racist company, they need to be sacked for being a racist, they know nothing about the black community, they need to go on an education course to learn about the black community....

    Oh its a black employee of a franchise, who is just a numpty not to realise how it looks...

    I don't care that he is black, sack him for not knowing about black history....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Which is why i have been suspicious about whether he really has it. It is a stunt to turn over the card table when he knows he has lost.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,279
    edited October 2020
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimT said:

    If Trump is up by just 4 in Ohio in a Trafalgar Group poll, he is in deep shit:

    https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/oh-pres-1020/

    Ohio is of course the key swing state, the only state to have voted for the winner in every Presidential election since 1960.

    Now that could change this year and Biden could win the Electoral College with Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin or 2 of those plus Arizona but he would be the first candidate to win the Presidency having lost Ohio since Kennedy.

    So I would say Trump being up by 4% in Ohio is good news for the President in the sense he is unlikely to lose by a landslide but bad news for the President in the sense it is still not enough for him to win
    Well, that's the C- rated Trafalgar so perhaps the truism a broken clock is right twice a day can apply to pollsters as well.

    With their in-built Republican bias a 4-point for Trump in a state he won by 8 last time suggests a 2% swing to Biden and a national lead of 6 points.

    The A+ New York Times/Siena pollster puts Biden 8 ahead in Arizona:

    https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/az100120-crosstabs/a77605c32cd8f31e/full.pdf

    The Senate battle looks to be turning against McSally with Kelly establishing a solid lead.

    Delaware is no one's idea of a battleground state. In 2016, Clinton won by 12 and a poll by the University of Delaware (albeit an old poll with sampling with 21/9 to 27/9) has Biden up by 21 s0o a 4.5% swing to the Democrats suggesting a double digit national lead.
    I could not care less what pompous poll ratings call Trafalgar, I judge pollsters by results and results alone.

    In 2016 Trafalgar called Michigan and Pennsylvania correctly for Trump when most pollsters and Nate Silver had Clinton ahead there, Silver also wrongly had Clinton ahead in Florida unlike Trafalgar.

    Trafalgar should therefore be treated with great respect for identifying Trump voters as long as Trump is on the ballot
  • She needs some advice on putting on her make-up. She even looks as dumb as she sounds. Is this the best the GoP can find to put forward now? Are their best people all laid up with the virus?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Andy_JS said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    Talk about not quite "getting" the historical weight of anti-black racism -

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-54419760

    What's hilarious about it is that it was a black guy who came up with the workout routine. 😆
    Why is that hilarious? Please explain.
    He called it that. PureGym probably thought they were in the clear with the wokerati because of that but didn't account for faux offence taken by liberal whites on behalf of other races.
    He could redeem himself by explaining it only refers to white slavery, ie. white people being made slaves in Morocco, etc.
    ooh - lets call for reparations...........
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    I'm getting a strong 'late Michael Jackson' vibe about Donald Trump now. The increasingly bizarre behaviour. The cultish fans who believe anything. The drugs. The paranoia. The quack doctors. The strange confected "happenings". The oddly fluctuating skin colour and appearance. It goes on and on. The only difference is the lack - in Trump's case - of a close to supernatural talent for music and dance.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    Mrs Biden is worried. And who can blame her?


    "At one point, his wife, Jill Biden, physically pulled Mr. Biden a few feet back when he got too close to the press."

    NYTimes
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320

    Which is why i have been suspicious about whether he really has it. It is a stunt to turn over the card table when he knows he has lost.
    It would be a bit risky. He might 'recover' from it before contracting it for real.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Which is why i have been suspicious about whether he really has it. It is a stunt to turn over the card table when he knows he has lost.

    Well - he would be nearly the only one in the Whitehouse to dodge that bullet......
  • Trumpster clearly feeling better and watching hours of cable news.....

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1313183801732890624?s=19
  • TresTres Posts: 2,686
    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    Talk about not quite "getting" the historical weight of anti-black racism -

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-54419760

    What's hilarious about it is that it was a black guy who came up with the workout routine. 😆
    Why is that hilarious? Please explain.
    any fule knows that black people can't be racist, same as how it is impossible for a woman to be sexist.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    oooh Laurence Fox being sued
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited October 2020
    BBC explanation of the Excel problem..

    The BBC has confirmed the missing Covid-19 test data was caused by the ill-thought-out use of Microsoft's Excel software. Furthermore, PHE was to blame, rather than a third-party contractor.

    The issue was caused by the way the agency brought together logs produced by the commercial firms paid to carry out swab tests for the virus. They filed their results in the form of text-based lists, without issue.

    PHE had set up an automatic process to pull this data together into Excel templates so that it could then be uploaded to a central system and made available to the NHS Test and Trace team as well as other government computer dashboards.

    The problem is that the PHE developers picked an old file format to do this - known as XLS. As a consequence, each template could handle only about 65,000 rows of data rather than the one million-plus rows that Excel is actually capable of.

    And since each test result created several rows of data, in practice it meant that each template was limited to about 1,400 cases. When that total was reached, further cases were simply left off.

    Until last week, there were not enough test results being generated by private labs for this to have been a problem

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54422505

    Its hard to blame Matt Hancock personally for this.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,428

    Mrs Biden is worried. And who can blame her?


    "At one point, his wife, Jill Biden, physically pulled Mr. Biden a few feet back when he got too close to the press."

    NYTimes

    Relationship goals.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    edited October 2020
    https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1313180250315132929

    Aren’t they allowed to share their “experience of fighting the virus firsthand” ?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800
    HYUFD said:


    I could not care less what pompous poll ratings call Trafalgar, I judge pollsters by results and results alone.

    In 2016 Trafalgar called Michigan and Pennsylvania correctly for Trump when most pollsters and Nate Silver had Clinton ahead there, Silver also wrongly had Clinton ahead in Florida unlike Trafalgar.

    Trafalgar should therefore be treated with great respect for identifying Trump voters as long as Trump is on the ballot

    Fine. Let's see what Trafalgar's final polls for key states and the national results are and compare them with reality.

    We can't undo the events of 2016 but 2020 is a new election and we need to see how all the pollsters compare and judge them accordingly. Trafalgar may be right again, they may not.

    After all, we can only judge pollsters by how they performed in the last comparable election and after November we'll have a new set of data with which to make our comparisons.
  • HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimT said:

    If Trump is up by just 4 in Ohio in a Trafalgar Group poll, he is in deep shit:

    https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/oh-pres-1020/

    Ohio is of course the key swing state, the only state to have voted for the winner in every Presidential election since 1960.

    Now that could change this year and Biden could win the Electoral College with Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin or 2 of those plus Arizona but he would be the first candidate to win the Presidency having lost Ohio since Kennedy.

    So I would say Trump being up by 4% in Ohio is good news for the President in the sense he is unlikely to lose by a landslide but bad news for the President in the sense it is still not enough for him to win
    Well, that's the C- rated Trafalgar so perhaps the truism a broken clock is right twice a day can apply to pollsters as well.

    With their in-built Republican bias a 4-point for Trump in a state he won by 8 last time suggests a 2% swing to Biden and a national lead of 6 points.

    The A+ New York Times/Siena pollster puts Biden 8 ahead in Arizona:

    https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/az100120-crosstabs/a77605c32cd8f31e/full.pdf

    The Senate battle looks to be turning against McSally with Kelly establishing a solid lead.

    Delaware is no one's idea of a battleground state. In 2016, Clinton won by 12 and a poll by the University of Delaware (albeit an old poll with sampling with 21/9 to 27/9) has Biden up by 21 s0o a 4.5% swing to the Democrats suggesting a double digit national lead.
    I could not care less what pompous poll ratings call Trafalgar, I judge pollsters by results and results alone.

    In 2016 Trafalgar called Michigan and Pennsylvania correctly for Trump when most pollsters and Nate Silver had Clinton ahead there, Silver also wrongly had Clinton ahead in Florida unlike Trafalgar.

    Trafalgar should therefore be treated with great respect for identifying Trump voters as long as Trump is on the ballot
    Is that the same Trafalgar Group that forecast Trump would win Nevada by 5% when he actually lost by 2%?

    That Trafalgar Group?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555

    BBC explanation of the Excel problem..

    The BBC has confirmed the missing Covid-19 test data was caused by the ill-thought-out use of Microsoft's Excel software. Furthermore, PHE was to blame, rather than a third-party contractor.

    The issue was caused by the way the agency brought together logs produced by the commercial firms paid to carry out swab tests for the virus. They filed their results in the form of text-based lists, without issue.

    PHE had set up an automatic process to pull this data together into Excel templates so that it could then be uploaded to a central system and made available to the NHS Test and Trace team as well as other government computer dashboards.

    The problem is that the PHE developers picked an old file format to do this - known as XLS. As a consequence, each template could handle only about 65,000 rows of data rather than the one million-plus rows that Excel is actually capable of.

    And since each test result created several rows of data, in practice it meant that each template was limited to about 1,400 cases. When that total was reached, further cases were simply left off.

    Until last week, there were not enough test results being generated by private labs for this to have been a problem

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54422505

    Its hard to blame Matt Hancock personally for this.

    He may not be responsible for the work, but he is accountable.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited October 2020
    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    TimT said:

    If Trump is up by just 4 in Ohio in a Trafalgar Group poll, he is in deep shit:

    https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/oh-pres-1020/

    Ohio is of course the key swing state, the only state to have voted for the winner in every Presidential election since 1960.

    Now that could change this year and Biden could win the Electoral College with Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin or 2 of those plus Arizona but he would be the first candidate to win the Presidency having lost Ohio since Kennedy.

    So I would say Trump being up by 4% in Ohio is good news for the President in the sense he is unlikely to lose by a landslide but bad news for the President in the sense it is still not enough for him to win
    Well, that's the C- rated Trafalgar so perhaps the truism a broken clock is right twice a day can apply to pollsters as well.

    With their in-built Republican bias a 4-point for Trump in a state he won by 8 last time suggests a 2% swing to Biden and a national lead of 6 points.

    The A+ New York Times/Siena pollster puts Biden 8 ahead in Arizona:

    https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/az100120-crosstabs/a77605c32cd8f31e/full.pdf

    The Senate battle looks to be turning against McSally with Kelly establishing a solid lead.

    Delaware is no one's idea of a battleground state. In 2016, Clinton won by 12 and a poll by the University of Delaware (albeit an old poll with sampling with 21/9 to 27/9) has Biden up by 21 s0o a 4.5% swing to the Democrats suggesting a double digit national lead.
    I could not care less what pompous poll ratings call Trafalgar, I judge pollsters by results and results alone.

    In 2016 Trafalgar called Michigan and Pennsylvania correctly for Trump when most pollsters and Nate Silver had Clinton ahead there, Silver also wrongly had Clinton ahead in Florida unlike Trafalgar.

    Trafalgar should therefore be treated with great respect for identifying Trump voters as long as Trump is on the ballot
    Like in Nevada and Colorado where they identified Trump voters who didn't even exist so successful were they.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Trump leaving hospital at 6 30
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TimT said:

    If Trump is up by just 4 in Ohio in a Trafalgar Group poll, he is in deep shit:

    https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/oh-pres-1020/

    That was my thought too.
    How was Hillary doing in Ohio at the same juncture I wonder......Up a couple....??

    And look at those undecideds.....
    Trump was forecast to win Ohio.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/

    Tossup this time round:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ohio/

    Trafalgar has Trump over Hillary by four in 2016 too but closer to the vote (24 October), for what its worth.
    Trafalgar polls are not worth a great deal.

    If they failed to show cross-tables, but were broadly in line with other pollsters, they'd have some credibility; or, if they did show sensible cross-tables and were out of line with other pollsters, you would again say they may have some merit. But they are miles out from everyone else and don't show workings, so it's in the round filing cabinet for them.
    Wrong, Trafalgar Group are the gold standard pollsters for the Electoral College at the moment, the only pollster to correctly have had Trump ahead in Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016.

    They are the Survation of US pollsters, Survation of course being the only pollster to get 2017 right and 2019 right (and 2015 in their final non released poll)
    You're chasing your own tail.
    His fiancée will be glad to hear it's his own tail he's chasing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Floater said:

    oooh Laurence Fox being sued

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eD4TLmNyGYA
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Trump says "dont be afraid of Covid"

    He really is a rare individual.....
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Trumpster clearly feeling better and watching hours of cable news.....

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1313183801732890624?s=19

    Now that does sound like an authentic Trump tweet.
  • He's coming out.

    twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1313186529058136070

    Christ has risen....
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,173
    edited October 2020

    BBC explanation of the Excel problem..

    The BBC has confirmed the missing Covid-19 test data was caused by the ill-thought-out use of Microsoft's Excel software. Furthermore, PHE was to blame, rather than a third-party contractor.

    The issue was caused by the way the agency brought together logs produced by the commercial firms paid to carry out swab tests for the virus. They filed their results in the form of text-based lists, without issue.

    PHE had set up an automatic process to pull this data together into Excel templates so that it could then be uploaded to a central system and made available to the NHS Test and Trace team as well as other government computer dashboards.

    The problem is that the PHE developers picked an old file format to do this - known as XLS. As a consequence, each template could handle only about 65,000 rows of data rather than the one million-plus rows that Excel is actually capable of.

    And since each test result created several rows of data, in practice it meant that each template was limited to about 1,400 cases. When that total was reached, further cases were simply left off.

    Until last week, there were not enough test results being generated by private labs for this to have been a problem

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54422505

    Its hard to blame Matt Hancock personally for this.

    True, but ministers aren't usually personally responsible for mistakes made under their watch. They still used to resign, like Lord Carrington and Richard Luce when the Falklands were invaded in 1982.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    Talk about not quite "getting" the historical weight of anti-black racism -

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-54419760

    What's hilarious about it is that it was a black guy who came up with the workout routine. 😆
    Why is that hilarious? Please explain.
    He called it that. PureGym probably thought they were in the clear with the wokerati because of that but didn't account for faux offence taken by liberal whites on behalf of other races.
    Ok. But who or what are you laughing at? The people who think it's crass? Do YOU not think it's crass?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    That startled me for a moment. Was wondering how it would play in the Bible belt.
    Floater said:

    Trump says "dont be afraid of Covid"

    He really is a rare individual.....

    Amen. Let us all thank God for small mercies.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Floater said:

    Which is why i have been suspicious about whether he really has it. It is a stunt to turn over the card table when he knows he has lost.

    Well - he would be nearly the only one in the Whitehouse to dodge that bullet......
    The thing which I can't get my head round is, if Trump is in so much trouble, why it is not being picked up more in tales from within his political campaign. No one wants to be associated with a loser. We have also had various stories about GOP Senators such as McNally, Tillis, Collins and Graham being in trouble, suggesting Republican sources are happy to talk to the press, but - outside those in the Republican party who don't like Trump - few who are saying that Trump's campaign is floundering.

    If anything, where Trump was visiting before his illness, suggested he was thinking of expanding the map, including places such as MN, NV and NH. We have also had stories from within the Democratic camp suggesting they are having trouble motivating voters in Wisconsin and Latinos in Florida.

    Now that may be classic bullsh1tting and projecting strength from Trump and it may be the polls are absolutely spot on (the ones with the big Biden leads) but it feels odd.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,460
    edited October 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    BBC explanation of the Excel problem..

    The BBC has confirmed the missing Covid-19 test data was caused by the ill-thought-out use of Microsoft's Excel software. Furthermore, PHE was to blame, rather than a third-party contractor.

    The issue was caused by the way the agency brought together logs produced by the commercial firms paid to carry out swab tests for the virus. They filed their results in the form of text-based lists, without issue.

    PHE had set up an automatic process to pull this data together into Excel templates so that it could then be uploaded to a central system and made available to the NHS Test and Trace team as well as other government computer dashboards.

    The problem is that the PHE developers picked an old file format to do this - known as XLS. As a consequence, each template could handle only about 65,000 rows of data rather than the one million-plus rows that Excel is actually capable of.

    And since each test result created several rows of data, in practice it meant that each template was limited to about 1,400 cases. When that total was reached, further cases were simply left off.

    Until last week, there were not enough test results being generated by private labs for this to have been a problem

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54422505

    Its hard to blame Matt Hancock personally for this.

    True, but ministers aren't usually personally responsible for mistakes made under their watch. They still used to resign, like Lord Carrington and Richard Luce when the Falklands were invaded in 1982.
    I mean I can blame him for being slow to push PHE to get their head out of their arse and getting testing capacity to the required level or for hiring Dido Harding to oversee the process now, but when it comes to something so specific as this, I don't expect him to be personally coding this like some crazed Elon Musk.
  • Great, so Trump has made a full recovery. Betfair, Sporting Index: time to reopen your markets!
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Alistair said:

    Trumpster clearly feeling better and watching hours of cable news.....

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1313183801732890624?s=19

    Now that does sound like an authentic Trump tweet.
    So Jesus was supposed to be dead for three days and three nights before he rose from the dead, which is sort of similar to DT's stay at the Walter Reed hospital....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    It’s already been established that the WH effectively contains a mini hospital. So it doesn’t necessarily mean a return to his desk (or the golf course)
  • ydoethur said:

    That startled me for a moment. Was wondering how it would play in the Bible belt.
    Floater said:

    Trump says "dont be afraid of Covid"

    He really is a rare individual.....

    Amen. Let us all thank God for small mercies.
    In common with many Covid sufferers, Mrs PtP regularly felt periods of great well-being after the main symptoms had subsided, but they were irregular and punctuated by irregular relapses. It wouldn't be surprising if Trump experienced something similar.

    Next few weeks are going to be interesting.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    Don’t be afraid of covid is a gift to the Dem campaign who will have the attack ads ready to go with the 210,000 who have died alongside that .
  • Utterly irresponsible.

    So everyone else who catches COVID will have access to the same level of treatment as he got? There won't be any more US deaths?

    Preposterously irresponsible.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Seems unlikely so late in life.
    And a pretty desperate electoral gambit.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    It's just a variation on the most basic and oldest defence government's have when seeking re-election - if in a crisis, it's no time for a new person to take over. If it's not a crisis, well, why change?

    Quite accidentally, it means it is never time to change government.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    MrEd said:

    Alistair said:

    Trumpster clearly feeling better and watching hours of cable news.....

    https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1313183801732890624?s=19

    Now that does sound like an authentic Trump tweet.
    So Jesus was supposed to be dead for three days and three nights before he rose from the dead, which is sort of similar to DT's stay at the Walter Reed hospital....
    Yeah, but Boris managed to rise at Easter, and Trump cannot beat that.
  • Nigelb said:

    Seems unlikely so late in life.
    And a pretty desperate electoral gambit.
    He feels so good, because of the roids.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    MrEd said:

    Floater said:

    Which is why i have been suspicious about whether he really has it. It is a stunt to turn over the card table when he knows he has lost.

    Well - he would be nearly the only one in the Whitehouse to dodge that bullet......
    The thing which I can't get my head round is, if Trump is in so much trouble, why it is not being picked up more in tales from within his political campaign. No one wants to be associated with a loser. We have also had various stories about GOP Senators such as McNally, Tillis, Collins and Graham being in trouble, suggesting Republican sources are happy to talk to the press, but - outside those in the Republican party who don't like Trump - few who are saying that Trump's campaign is floundering.

    If anything, where Trump was visiting before his illness, suggested he was thinking of expanding the map, including places such as MN, NV and NH. We have also had stories from within the Democratic camp suggesting they are having trouble motivating voters in Wisconsin and Latinos in Florida.

    Now that may be classic bullsh1tting and projecting strength from Trump and it may be the polls are absolutely spot on (the ones with the big Biden leads) but it feels odd.
    The press has been full of reports about the financial crisis at the heart of the Trump campaign forcing it to pull advertising from Arizona and Ohio as they cannot afford it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    Floater said:

    oooh Laurence Fox being sued

    MASSIVE - It's the Oscar Wilde vs Marquess of Queensbury de nos jours!
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    ydoethur said:

    That startled me for a moment. Was wondering how it would play in the Bible belt.
    Floater said:

    Trump says "dont be afraid of Covid"

    He really is a rare individual.....

    Amen. Let us all thank God for small mercies.
    In common with many Covid sufferers, Mrs PtP regularly felt periods of great well-being after the main symptoms had subsided, but they were irregular and punctuated by irregular relapses. It wouldn't be surprising if Trump experienced something similar.

    Next few weeks are going to be interesting.
    I hope she is generally on the mend Peter
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    So that’s how he’s going to play it. COVID, no big deal.

    His base will love it.
  • Andy_JS said:

    BBC explanation of the Excel problem..

    The BBC has confirmed the missing Covid-19 test data was caused by the ill-thought-out use of Microsoft's Excel software. Furthermore, PHE was to blame, rather than a third-party contractor.

    The issue was caused by the way the agency brought together logs produced by the commercial firms paid to carry out swab tests for the virus. They filed their results in the form of text-based lists, without issue.

    PHE had set up an automatic process to pull this data together into Excel templates so that it could then be uploaded to a central system and made available to the NHS Test and Trace team as well as other government computer dashboards.

    The problem is that the PHE developers picked an old file format to do this - known as XLS. As a consequence, each template could handle only about 65,000 rows of data rather than the one million-plus rows that Excel is actually capable of.

    And since each test result created several rows of data, in practice it meant that each template was limited to about 1,400 cases. When that total was reached, further cases were simply left off.

    Until last week, there were not enough test results being generated by private labs for this to have been a problem

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54422505

    Its hard to blame Matt Hancock personally for this.

    True, but ministers aren't usually personally responsible for mistakes made under their watch. They still used to resign, like Lord Carrington and Richard Luce when the Falklands were invaded in 1982.
    Carrington was appointed Secretary-General of NATO two years later and Luce returned to government.
  • Jonathan said:

    So that’s how he’s going to play it. COVID, no big deal.

    His base will love it.

    Just imagine another 4 years of this reality show.....
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360

    I think it's important to understand that all that dreadful Holocaust bothering that we do over here, is just a function of us being a freedom hating country, unlike freedom loving Blighty.

    So it's just a matter of common sense and decency that you shouldn't suffer from such a dreadful impingement on the right to free speech.

    Hail Lozza.
    From a philosophical point of view I certainly agree that people should be able to deny the truth if they want to do so. The rest of us should then be able to determine if they are batshit crazy (like Holocaust deniers are) or if our assumed truth is wrong (like Copernicus).

    However I doubt that's where Fox is coming from.
    I have a feeling that Fox would be much more effective as an actor unafraid to express unfashionable opinions - which he is outstandingly good at - than as a fringe political organiser - a potential graveyard. That phrase 'Launch of new political party' has a truly launch of Titanic ring about it, a sense abundantly supported by compelling evidence.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Jonathan said:

    BBC explanation of the Excel problem..

    The BBC has confirmed the missing Covid-19 test data was caused by the ill-thought-out use of Microsoft's Excel software. Furthermore, PHE was to blame, rather than a third-party contractor.

    The issue was caused by the way the agency brought together logs produced by the commercial firms paid to carry out swab tests for the virus. They filed their results in the form of text-based lists, without issue.

    PHE had set up an automatic process to pull this data together into Excel templates so that it could then be uploaded to a central system and made available to the NHS Test and Trace team as well as other government computer dashboards.

    The problem is that the PHE developers picked an old file format to do this - known as XLS. As a consequence, each template could handle only about 65,000 rows of data rather than the one million-plus rows that Excel is actually capable of.

    And since each test result created several rows of data, in practice it meant that each template was limited to about 1,400 cases. When that total was reached, further cases were simply left off.

    Until last week, there were not enough test results being generated by private labs for this to have been a problem

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-54422505

    Its hard to blame Matt Hancock personally for this.

    He may not be responsible for the work, but he is accountable.
    Yes, but what does that actually mean? As FU says it really doesn't seem like something he personally could have influenced, positively or negatively. However bad a job Hancock may be doing, would his have doing a good job have changed what happened here? And if it wouldn't, well, yes he is still accountable for things within his remit, but how accountable, what consequences would be reasonable?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    If he feels better than 20 years ago, that is the steroid talking.

    No normal person feels better mid viral infection.
  • So which PBer was most contemptuous of PHE IT failings ?
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,200
    70% of Americans are worried about getting covid and Trump comes out with that statement . He really is tone deaf and becoming increasingly delusional .
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    TimT said:

    If Trump is up by just 4 in Ohio in a Trafalgar Group poll, he is in deep shit:

    https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/news/oh-pres-1020/

    That's understating it a tad. If Trump is up by just 4 in Ohio in any poll, he's already wading through a field of cow manure, given that he won there by 8 there in 2016. If he's up by just 4 in Ohio in a Trafalgar poll, he's fallen into the silage tank.
    That does rather assume uniform swing though. Whilst Trump had a margin of 8% here in 2016, Obama won only narrowly in 2012 as did Bush on 2004.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    Foxy said:

    If he feels better than 20 years ago, that is the steroid talking.

    No normal person feels better mid viral infection.
    Trump is not a normal person. Thank goodness.
  • Nigelb said:

    Seems unlikely so late in life.
    And a pretty desperate electoral gambit.
    That's Eric's role in the shpiel.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    Talk about not quite "getting" the historical weight of anti-black racism -

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-54419760

    What's hilarious about it is that it was a black guy who came up with the workout routine. 😆
    Why is that hilarious? Please explain.
    He called it that. PureGym probably thought they were in the clear with the wokerati because of that but didn't account for faux offence taken by liberal whites on behalf of other races.
    Social media outrage bus has been full on racist, its racist, made by a racist, racist company, they need to be sacked for being a racist, they know nothing about the black community, they need to go on an education course to learn about the black community....

    Oh its a black employee of a franchise, who is just a numpty not to realise how it looks...

    I don't care that he is black, sack him for not knowing about black history....
    How come you are so immersed in ultra woke lefty twitter?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    MaxPB said:

    kinabalu said:

    Talk about not quite "getting" the historical weight of anti-black racism -

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-54419760

    What's hilarious about it is that it was a black guy who came up with the workout routine. 😆
    Why is that hilarious? Please explain.
    He called it that. PureGym probably thought they were in the clear with the wokerati because of that but didn't account for faux offence taken by liberal whites on behalf of other races.
    Social media outrage bus has been full on racist, its racist, made by a racist, racist company, they need to be sacked for being a racist, they know nothing about the black community, they need to go on an education course to learn about the black community....

    Oh its a black employee of a franchise, who is just a numpty not to realise how it looks...

    I don't care that he is black, sack him for not knowing about black history....
    How come you are so immersed in ultra woke lefty twitter?
    The same reason people on the left might follow paranoid conspiracy right wingers - it's hilarious?
  • He Is Risen!
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