The challenge for Trump is that white voters are now significantly less likely to support him than a
Comments
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UK hospitals
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Some journos catching on to what a bunch of mendacious sh1te that exponential graph whitty and vallance showed is. It is far from the experience of Spain and France.0
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The hospitalisations, and now the deaths, are moving up:contrarian said:
They are failing at keeping down the case rate. Failing completely. Cases have soared.Richard_Nabavi said:So we're now supposed to think that the fact that Spain and France are having some success in keeping down the rate of re-infection by imposing stricter controls is evidence that Whitty and Vallance are shysters and that we don't need to impose stricter controls?
Err...
But there are comparatively few hospitalisations and deaths. The case to death relationship is completely different from the first wave.
Now that's partly due to increased testing, of course, but you have to query the numbers when France and Spain's deaths are not really moving up that much, even after a number of weeks.
The numbers of deaths in France of people diagnosed with Covid-19 is trending upwards for the first time since the end of its lockdown, the public health agency said Friday, warning that all coronavirus indicators were now worsening.
While a recent surge of infections mostly affected the young, infections are also growing fast among the over-75s.
Admissions to hospital and intensive care wards are also increasing, the health agency added.
"For the first time since the lifting of the (March-May) lockdown, we are seeing an increase in Covid-19 deaths," the agency said in its weekly update, saying 265 people had died from the virus this week compared with 129 the last.
https://www.thelocal.fr/20200918/covid-19-deaths-in-france-rise-for-the-first-time-since-lockdown
Also in Spain:
https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-09-17/spain-reports-239-new-coronavirus-deaths-the-highest-figure-so-far-during-the-second-wave-of-the-epidemic.html
But of course both these countries are imposing stricter lockdowns and have been for a while, especially Spain. Those are the figures after taking action. Even if you think they are acceptable, they are not a reason not to take action, nor do they give you an indication of what would happen here if we do nothing.
This really isn't hard to understand.
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I agree with that and would again suggest that supports the growth in cases as being geometric to date. Numbers have come up from under a thousand to over 4k pretty quickly.RobD said:
As for your example, the geometric growth would be massively faster than the exponential growth during the first twenty or thirty days. If you were comparing the two you'd hardly see the exponential one moving since all the action occurs right at the end.DavidL said:So, and please correct me if I am wrong, using @Andy_JS 's excellent lily pad example if it takes 48 days to cover the pond then on exponential growth half of the pond was covered in 47 days. On geometric growth it would be at 24 days?
And if it took us 17 days to go from 2k to 4k cases a day in another 28 days we will be at 7.3k (2000 x28/17 +4) cases rather than 50K.
As I say, happy to be corrected.0 -
Unreliable source inform, that PM was spotted on dates in question with a group of Conservative Central Office volunteers on ROCKALL, engaged in collecting and weighing guano deposited by British sea-birds, compared to the droppings of birds of another feather, esp. fly-bys from the European continent and blow-ins from Republic of Ireland.IanB2 said:So, to put this to bed, does anyone have a link to some credible third party who definitely saw Johnson in the UK that weekend? Given the number of claimed engagements he had, there must be someone?
"Our brave, fabulous birds make astounding contributions every day - indeed each hour! - of astonishing breadth, depth and heft on behalf of global ecology and British sovereignty. Literally poop-by-poop their amazing patriotism and productivity have shown the world - when it comes to piling up shit, the name of that tune is still" Rule Britannia"!
Rumor are that the PM's advocacy and enthusiasm have been so persuasive, that Donald Trump is seriously considering Rockall as site for his newest luxury golf & birding complex. OR perhaps (if DT is re-elected) a high-level control and command center for top NATO and USDOD leadership.2 -
That's a lot of money for some so-so franchises: Dishonered probably won't have a third outing (I loved the first, but was bored silly by the second), Wolfenstein is OK, Elder Scrolls is good (but Witcher is better in that space), and Fallout is somewhat damaged property after their MMORPG issues.FrancisUrquhart said:Wow this is a big move...
BBC News - Microsoft buys Fallout creator Bethesda for $7.5bn
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/54233235
As @MaxPB says, this is all about Microsoft trying to own the subscription space. I'd also argue that they are trying to ensure that there are a maximum number of exclusives for Xbox over PS5.0 -
Aren't exponential growth and geometric growth just different words for the same thing? As I understand it, they both describe growth whose rate is proportional to the current magnitude of a quantity. Linear, quadratic, cubic, etc. growth are faster at first, but don't accelerate as rapidly as exponential/geometric growth.RobD said:
As for your example, the geometric growth would be massively faster than the exponential growth during the first twenty or thirty days. If you were comparing the two you'd hardly see the exponential one moving since all the action occurs right at the end.DavidL said:So, and please correct me if I am wrong, using @Andy_JS 's excellent lily pad example if it takes 48 days to cover the pond then on exponential growth half of the pond was covered in 47 days. On geometric growth it would be at 24 days?
And if it took us 17 days to go from 2k to 4k cases a day in another 28 days we will be at 7.3k (2000 x28/17 +4) cases rather than 50K.
As I say, happy to be corrected.0 -
The problem is that we are now hitting the limits of testing - so the case numbers are going to be effected by that.Andy_Cooke said:
With all the issues around testing and case numbers, I'm personally going off of hospitalisation numbers. It's rather lagged in comparison, but we're not arguing about test capacity, who should be getting them, are there false positives, or whatever.DavidL said:So, and please correct me if I am wrong, using @Andy_JS 's excellent lily pad example if it takes 48 days to cover the pond then on exponential growth half of the pond was covered in 47 days. On geometric growth it would be at 24 days?
And if it took us 17 days to go from 2k to 4k cases a day in another 28 days we will be at 7.3k (2000 x28/17 +4) cases rather than 50K.
As I say, happy to be corrected.
And, at the end of the day, that's what we should be worrying about.
I want back and looked at the doubling period for the seven-day-smoothed average.
From the past 10 days of figures (9th to 18th of September), how long had it taken for the seven-day average to double?
9th September: 14 days (double what it was on the 26th of August)
10th September: 12 days (double what it was on the 29th of August)
11th September: 9 days (double what it was on the 2nd of September)
12th September: 8 days
13th September; 8 days
14th September: 8 days
15th September: 8 days
16th September: 8.5 days
17th September: 8.5 days
18th September: 9 days.
I'm hoping the acceleration has stabilised and maybe even dropped, but it's still looking more exponential than geometrical. Although I think the doubling period is a day or two longer than Whitty and co said (but they're explaining a worst-case scenario they want to avoid).
I'd like to see that doubling period extend a bit more - essentially, we may have dropped from an exponential growth rate of +9% per day to +8% per day after climbing there from +5% per day when it started rising again.0 -
There is now a significant possibility of an Electoral college tie Larry Sabato says, 269 for Biden and 269 for Trump if Trump wins the 4 current toss up states, Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Florida,
The Senate is also forecast to be 49 Democrats and 49 Republicans with 2 toss ups
https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1308076423152906240?s=200 -
I don't think it is evidence against either model, actually. The rate on hospital admissions does suggest that it is growing more exponentially than geometrically, however.DavidL said:
I agree with that and would again suggest that supports the growth in cases as being geometric to date. Numbers have come up from under a thousand to over 4k pretty quickly.RobD said:
As for your example, the geometric growth would be massively faster than the exponential growth during the first twenty or thirty days. If you were comparing the two you'd hardly see the exponential one moving since all the action occurs right at the end.DavidL said:So, and please correct me if I am wrong, using @Andy_JS 's excellent lily pad example if it takes 48 days to cover the pond then on exponential growth half of the pond was covered in 47 days. On geometric growth it would be at 24 days?
And if it took us 17 days to go from 2k to 4k cases a day in another 28 days we will be at 7.3k (2000 x28/17 +4) cases rather than 50K.
As I say, happy to be corrected.0 -
Trump is *checks notes* defunding the police
https://twitter.com/stevennelson10/status/13079848495218319370 -
I think you mean linearly rather than geometrically.RobD said:
I don't think it is evidence against either model, actually. The rate on hospital admissions does suggest that it is growing more exponentially than geometrically, however.DavidL said:
I agree with that and would again suggest that supports the growth in cases as being geometric to date. Numbers have come up from under a thousand to over 4k pretty quickly.RobD said:
As for your example, the geometric growth would be massively faster than the exponential growth during the first twenty or thirty days. If you were comparing the two you'd hardly see the exponential one moving since all the action occurs right at the end.DavidL said:So, and please correct me if I am wrong, using @Andy_JS 's excellent lily pad example if it takes 48 days to cover the pond then on exponential growth half of the pond was covered in 47 days. On geometric growth it would be at 24 days?
And if it took us 17 days to go from 2k to 4k cases a day in another 28 days we will be at 7.3k (2000 x28/17 +4) cases rather than 50K.
As I say, happy to be corrected.0 -
Or its the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy, which goes along the lines of, in order for you to be convinced our measures first time around worked, there has to be a big reaction when they are removed. Otherwise you'll be complaining about all those extra cancer deaths and suicides our measures caused, not to mention the mass uneployment.Richard_Nabavi said:
The hospitalisations, and now the deaths, are moving up:contrarian said:
They are failing at keeping down the case rate. Failing completely. Cases have soared.Richard_Nabavi said:So we're now supposed to think that the fact that Spain and France are having some success in keeping down the rate of re-infection by imposing stricter controls is evidence that Whitty and Vallance are shysters and that we don't need to impose stricter controls?
Err...
But there are comparatively few hospitalisations and deaths. The case to death relationship is completely different from the first wave.
Now that's partly due to increased testing, of course, but you have to query the numbers when France and Spain's deaths are not really moving up that much, even after a number of weeks.
The numbers of deaths in France of people diagnosed with Covid-19 is trending upwards for the first time since the end of its lockdown, the public health agency said Friday, warning that all coronavirus indicators were now worsening.
While a recent surge of infections mostly affected the young, infections are also growing fast among the over-75s.
Admissions to hospital and intensive care wards are also increasing, the health agency added.
"For the first time since the lifting of the (March-May) lockdown, we are seeing an increase in Covid-19 deaths," the agency said in its weekly update, saying 265 people had died from the virus this week compared with 129 the last.
https://www.thelocal.fr/20200918/covid-19-deaths-in-france-rise-for-the-first-time-since-lockdown
Also in Spain:
https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-09-17/spain-reports-239-new-coronavirus-deaths-the-highest-figure-so-far-during-the-second-wave-of-the-epidemic.html
But of course both these countries are imposing stricter lockdowns and have been for a while, especially Spain. Those are the figures after taking action. Even if you think they are acceptable, they are not a reason not to take action, nor do they give you an indication of what would happen here if we do nothing.
This really isn't hard to understand.0 -
More likely to mean local cops replaced by federal cops. The latter have been picking the hoodlums up in Portland in recent days.Alistair said:Trump is *checks notes* defunding the police
https://twitter.com/stevennelson10/status/13079848495218319370 -
https://twitter.com/AdamJSchwarz/status/1308076703110115335?s=20
And if the Joint Cttee wasn't making sufficient progress, why did the govt. rule out an extension of the transition period?0 -
For many PBers, this site IS their pub.Anabobazina said:
I suspect that is the case for several PBers!!Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have not been to a pub in decadesPulpstar said:10 pm pub curfew. Hmm.
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Well, would you agree with me that in terms of numbers of cases per day neither Spain nor France have so far had exponential growth and there is no evidence that we have either over anything other than very short periods?RobD said:
I don't think it is evidence against either model, actually. The rate on hospital admissions does suggest that it is growing more exponentially than geometrically, however.DavidL said:
I agree with that and would again suggest that supports the growth in cases as being geometric to date. Numbers have come up from under a thousand to over 4k pretty quickly.RobD said:
As for your example, the geometric growth would be massively faster than the exponential growth during the first twenty or thirty days. If you were comparing the two you'd hardly see the exponential one moving since all the action occurs right at the end.DavidL said:So, and please correct me if I am wrong, using @Andy_JS 's excellent lily pad example if it takes 48 days to cover the pond then on exponential growth half of the pond was covered in 47 days. On geometric growth it would be at 24 days?
And if it took us 17 days to go from 2k to 4k cases a day in another 28 days we will be at 7.3k (2000 x28/17 +4) cases rather than 50K.
As I say, happy to be corrected.
Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that there is not a problem here, there clearly is. The number of infections per day is clearly on an upward trend as is the number of hospital admissions. Both are sources of concern. Both justify further action because what we are doing right now and for the last month isn't working. I just think that the prognosis is being materially misrepresented.0 -
But if there is exponential growth then the percentage of positive results from testing should increase (it should increase from geometric increases as well but more slowly).Malmesbury said:
The problem is that we are now hitting the limits of testing - so the case numbers are going to be effected by that.Andy_Cooke said:
With all the issues around testing and case numbers, I'm personally going off of hospitalisation numbers. It's rather lagged in comparison, but we're not arguing about test capacity, who should be getting them, are there false positives, or whatever.DavidL said:So, and please correct me if I am wrong, using @Andy_JS 's excellent lily pad example if it takes 48 days to cover the pond then on exponential growth half of the pond was covered in 47 days. On geometric growth it would be at 24 days?
And if it took us 17 days to go from 2k to 4k cases a day in another 28 days we will be at 7.3k (2000 x28/17 +4) cases rather than 50K.
As I say, happy to be corrected.
And, at the end of the day, that's what we should be worrying about.
I want back and looked at the doubling period for the seven-day-smoothed average.
From the past 10 days of figures (9th to 18th of September), how long had it taken for the seven-day average to double?
9th September: 14 days (double what it was on the 26th of August)
10th September: 12 days (double what it was on the 29th of August)
11th September: 9 days (double what it was on the 2nd of September)
12th September: 8 days
13th September; 8 days
14th September: 8 days
15th September: 8 days
16th September: 8.5 days
17th September: 8.5 days
18th September: 9 days.
I'm hoping the acceleration has stabilised and maybe even dropped, but it's still looking more exponential than geometrical. Although I think the doubling period is a day or two longer than Whitty and co said (but they're explaining a worst-case scenario they want to avoid).
I'd like to see that doubling period extend a bit more - essentially, we may have dropped from an exponential growth rate of +9% per day to +8% per day after climbing there from +5% per day when it started rising again.0 -
Doom is a good get for them.rcs1000 said:
That's a lot of money for some so-so franchises: Dishonered probably won't have a third outing (I loved the first, but was bored silly by the second), Wolfenstein is OK, Elder Scrolls is good (but Witcher is better in that space), and Fallout is somewhat damaged property after their MMORPG issues.FrancisUrquhart said:Wow this is a big move...
BBC News - Microsoft buys Fallout creator Bethesda for $7.5bn
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/54233235
As @MaxPB says, this is all about Microsoft trying to own the subscription space. I'd also argue that they are trying to ensure that there are a maximum number of exclusives for Xbox over PS5.
I don't think it's about exclusives at all, at least not the major franchises. It makes no sense to spend $7.5bn on a company and then cut off the 40% of revenue that is derived from PS4 (and that will be higher for PS5).
The way I see it going - all Bethesda games go onto Gamepass from day one and they launch on PS5 and Steam to buy maybe two or four weeks later at full price. That gives Xbox a short exclusivity window, but doesn't cut off significant cross-platform revenue. In a few years I seriously see Xbox hardware ceasing to exist as a going concern for MS and they just go all in with Xcloud and they get Sony offer it on PS5 once they are out of the console hardware space.0 -
The only way to tell for sure is the ONS infection survey. Next out on Friday. That may allow us too calibrate to the new situation.DavidL said:
But if there is exponential growth then the percentage of positive results from testing should increase (it should increase from geometric increases as well but more slowly).Malmesbury said:
The problem is that we are now hitting the limits of testing - so the case numbers are going to be effected by that.Andy_Cooke said:
With all the issues around testing and case numbers, I'm personally going off of hospitalisation numbers. It's rather lagged in comparison, but we're not arguing about test capacity, who should be getting them, are there false positives, or whatever.DavidL said:So, and please correct me if I am wrong, using @Andy_JS 's excellent lily pad example if it takes 48 days to cover the pond then on exponential growth half of the pond was covered in 47 days. On geometric growth it would be at 24 days?
And if it took us 17 days to go from 2k to 4k cases a day in another 28 days we will be at 7.3k (2000 x28/17 +4) cases rather than 50K.
As I say, happy to be corrected.
And, at the end of the day, that's what we should be worrying about.
I want back and looked at the doubling period for the seven-day-smoothed average.
From the past 10 days of figures (9th to 18th of September), how long had it taken for the seven-day average to double?
9th September: 14 days (double what it was on the 26th of August)
10th September: 12 days (double what it was on the 29th of August)
11th September: 9 days (double what it was on the 2nd of September)
12th September: 8 days
13th September; 8 days
14th September: 8 days
15th September: 8 days
16th September: 8.5 days
17th September: 8.5 days
18th September: 9 days.
I'm hoping the acceleration has stabilised and maybe even dropped, but it's still looking more exponential than geometrical. Although I think the doubling period is a day or two longer than Whitty and co said (but they're explaining a worst-case scenario they want to avoid).
I'd like to see that doubling period extend a bit more - essentially, we may have dropped from an exponential growth rate of +9% per day to +8% per day after climbing there from +5% per day when it started rising again.
0 -
Pint of virtual IPA for me please...SeaShantyIrish2 said:
For many PBers, this site IS their pub.Anabobazina said:
I suspect that is the case for several PBers!!Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have not been to a pub in decadesPulpstar said:10 pm pub curfew. Hmm.
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May might be right. However she twice bungled things which risked great peril. I'm interested in what she has to say, but any lectures she may wish to deliver will fall on very cold ears.CarlottaVance said:https://twitter.com/AdamJSchwarz/status/1308076703110115335?s=20
And if the Joint Cttee wasn't making sufficient progress, why did the govt. rule out an extension of the transition period?0 -
Maybe I'm stupid but why do people spread the virus more at pubs after 10pm compared to before 10pm?CorrectHorseBattery said:10PM curfew on pubs
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Interesting to note as Boris was baptised Catholic if Biden becomes US President it will be the first time we have had baptised Roman Catholics as both UK PM and US President in what are traditionally Protestant nations, I am sure the Vatican would take note, though Ian Paisley may be turning in his grave
https://twitter.com/holysmoke/status/1308084702687965184?s=200 -
Has Boris lost his nerve again? its the 10pm pub closing the extent of it?
Worried about the vote on 30 September?0 -
Drunken Twitter grade behaviour at last orders?Andy_JS said:
Maybe I'm stupid but why do people spread the virus more at pubs after 10pm compared to before 10pm?CorrectHorseBattery said:10PM curfew on pubs
0 -
Witty and Valance will be handing in their resignations if that is the extent of the 6 month plan.contrarian said:Has Boris lost his nerve again? its the 10pm pub closing the extent of it?
Worried about the vote on 30 September?0 -
Fewer people in pubs, fewer chances of infection? It's like the Tesco motto, every little helps.Andy_JS said:
Maybe I'm stupid but why do people spread the virus more at pubs after 10pm compared to before 10pm?CorrectHorseBattery said:10PM curfew on pubs
0 -
Another small Brexit dividend...
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/sep/21/britons-eu-uk-bank-accounts-closed-lloyds-barclays-brexit0 -
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Does this mean I might have to recant my earlier apology re: Bojo?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
https://twitter.com/edwest/status/1308076451711905794?s=20contrarian said:Has Boris lost his nerve again? its the 10pm pub closing the extent of it?
Worried about the vote on 30 September?0 -
I suggest we all wait until he addresses the HOC tomorrow afternoon, following the morning Cobra meeting, and prior to his address to the nation latercontrarian said:Has Boris lost his nerve again? its the 10pm pub closing the extent of it?
Worried about the vote on 30 September?0 -
I would think that we will know more when the next 50K of testing capacity (next lab) kicks in.DavidL said:
But if there is exponential growth then the percentage of positive results from testing should increase (it should increase from geometric increases as well but more slowly).Malmesbury said:
The problem is that we are now hitting the limits of testing - so the case numbers are going to be effected by that.Andy_Cooke said:
With all the issues around testing and case numbers, I'm personally going off of hospitalisation numbers. It's rather lagged in comparison, but we're not arguing about test capacity, who should be getting them, are there false positives, or whatever.DavidL said:So, and please correct me if I am wrong, using @Andy_JS 's excellent lily pad example if it takes 48 days to cover the pond then on exponential growth half of the pond was covered in 47 days. On geometric growth it would be at 24 days?
And if it took us 17 days to go from 2k to 4k cases a day in another 28 days we will be at 7.3k (2000 x28/17 +4) cases rather than 50K.
As I say, happy to be corrected.
And, at the end of the day, that's what we should be worrying about.
I want back and looked at the doubling period for the seven-day-smoothed average.
From the past 10 days of figures (9th to 18th of September), how long had it taken for the seven-day average to double?
9th September: 14 days (double what it was on the 26th of August)
10th September: 12 days (double what it was on the 29th of August)
11th September: 9 days (double what it was on the 2nd of September)
12th September: 8 days
13th September; 8 days
14th September: 8 days
15th September: 8 days
16th September: 8.5 days
17th September: 8.5 days
18th September: 9 days.
I'm hoping the acceleration has stabilised and maybe even dropped, but it's still looking more exponential than geometrical. Although I think the doubling period is a day or two longer than Whitty and co said (but they're explaining a worst-case scenario they want to avoid).
I'd like to see that doubling period extend a bit more - essentially, we may have dropped from an exponential growth rate of +9% per day to +8% per day after climbing there from +5% per day when it started rising again.0 -
Snogging is mostly after 10pm.Andy_JS said:
Maybe I'm stupid but why do people spread the virus more at pubs after 10pm compared to before 10pm?CorrectHorseBattery said:10PM curfew on pubs
0 -
I wonder if Bojo is weighing up the reaction to what they said today.FrancisUrquhart said:
Witty and Valance will be handing in their resignations if that is the extent of the 6 month plan.contrarian said:Has Boris lost his nerve again? its the 10pm pub closing the extent of it?
Worried about the vote on 30 September?
That 50,000 cases graph what piece of duplicitous sh!te.0 -
It's been thoroughly debunked already, and the manager has already said he wasn't there. What more do you want?Mexicanpete said:
Does this mean I might have to recant my earlier apology re: Bojo?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
"The Government no longer trusts the testing data".
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/london-coronavirus-cases-testing-mystery-cases-fall-virus-spreads-a4552181.html
That's convenient. Perhaps best stop doing it and concentrate on other things.0 -
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An interesting use of quotation marks. Usually that indicates it is a quote.Scott_xP said:0 -
That may explain his attitude towards contraception.HYUFD said:Interesting to note as Boris was baptised Catholic if Biden becomes US President it will be the first time we have had baptised Roman Catholics as both UK PM and US President in what are traditionally Protestant nations, I am sure the Vatican would take note, though Ian Paisley may be turning in his grave
https://twitter.com/holysmoke/status/1308084702687965184?s=205 -
However, we all know Elvis is still alive and that the moon landings were faked.RobD said:
It's been thoroughly debunked already, and the manager has already said he wasn't there. What more do you want?Mexicanpete said:
Does this mean I might have to recant my earlier apology re: Bojo?CorrectHorseBattery said:0 -
Those 'extra cancer deaths and suicides' haven't appeared in the excess deaths figures yet. It is possible, indeed probable, that they will eventually. No-one has ever denied that, nor is there a living soul who has denied that the economic effects of lockdown are dire (although they might not be more dire than letting rip, it's hard to say).contrarian said:
Or its the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy, which goes along the lines of, in order for you to be convinced our measures first time around worked, there has to be a big reaction when they are removed. Otherwise you'll be complaining about all those extra cancer deaths and suicides our measures caused, not to mention the mass uneployment.
What you don't seem to be able to understand is that this a difficult set of trade-offs, and there are no magic bullets that will somehow make the problems go away. Whitty, Vallance etc completely understand that, and repeatedly make it clear that they understand it.4 -
Perhaps just return to the nostalgic golden age when pubs only opened at lunchtimes and in the evenings, and all shut at 11pmHYUFD said:
https://twitter.com/edwest/status/1308076451711905794?s=20contrarian said:Has Boris lost his nerve again? its the 10pm pub closing the extent of it?
Worried about the vote on 30 September?
0 -
Much to Labour's delight, she could never get enough Labour support for her WA as PM but now she is rebelling to preserve it in full Labour cannot wait to get behind herwilliamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1308086527445143553?s=20
https://twitter.com/LucyMPowell/status/1308086915137232896?s=200 -
He's CoE, according to wiki:dixiedean said:
That may explain his attitude towards contraception.HYUFD said:Interesting to note as Boris was baptised Catholic if Biden becomes US President it will be the first time we have had baptised Roman Catholics as both UK PM and US President in what are traditionally Protestant nations, I am sure the Vatican would take note, though Ian Paisley may be turning in his grave
https://twitter.com/holysmoke/status/1308084702687965184?s=20
Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England,[40] but has stated that "his faith comes and goes"[553] and that he is not a serious practising Christian.0 -
'Cos they get rowdier?Andy_JS said:
Maybe I'm stupid but why do people spread the virus more at pubs after 10pm compared to before 10pm?CorrectHorseBattery said:10PM curfew on pubs
0 -
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I suppose this indicates the government taking Covid measures seriously for the first time since the status went to 3.5.Scott_xP said:1 -
In Catholic doctrine if you are baptised Catholic you are Catholic until death, even if a lapsed one or you become a member of the Church of EnglandRobD said:
He's CoE, according to wiki:dixiedean said:
That may explain his attitude towards contraception.HYUFD said:Interesting to note as Boris was baptised Catholic if Biden becomes US President it will be the first time we have had baptised Roman Catholics as both UK PM and US President in what are traditionally Protestant nations, I am sure the Vatican would take note, though Ian Paisley may be turning in his grave
https://twitter.com/holysmoke/status/1308084702687965184?s=20
Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England,[40] but has stated that "his faith comes and goes"[553] and that he is not a serious practising Christian.0 -
Haven't been following it that closely but I gather he popped over to Italy. Little holiday.IanB2 said:So, to put this to bed, does anyone have a link to some credible third party who definitely saw Johnson in the UK that weekend? Given the number of claimed engagements he had, there must be someone?
1 -
Or it's the scientists reviving the long forgotten (and ridiculed from the start) 'alert system' to bounce Johnson into action he doesn't really want to take.FF43 said:
I suppose this indicates the government taking Covid measures seriously for the first time since the status went to 3.5.Scott_xP said:0 -
A woman of principleHYUFD said:
Much to Labour's delight, she could never get enough Labour support for her WA as PM but now she is rebelling to preserve it in full Labour cannot wait to get behind herwilliamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1308086527445143553?s=20
https://twitter.com/LucyMPowell/status/1308086915137232896?s=201 -
Re the government graph of cases doubling every 7 days:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1307991700216766464/photo/1
3,105 new cases on 15th September should give new 6,210 cases on 22nd September.
Today, the 21st, new cases were 4,368.
We can look forward to checking the government's 'prediction' tomorrow.0 -
Yeah, but that doesn't stop you baptising your children at an anglican church.HYUFD said:
In Catholic doctrine if you are born Catholic you are Catholic until death, even if a lapsed one or a member of the Church of EnglandRobD said:
He's CoE, according to wiki:dixiedean said:
That may explain his attitude towards contraception.HYUFD said:Interesting to note as Boris was baptised Catholic if Biden becomes US President it will be the first time we have had baptised Roman Catholics as both UK PM and US President in what are traditionally Protestant nations, I am sure the Vatican would take note, though Ian Paisley may be turning in his grave
https://twitter.com/holysmoke/status/1308084702687965184?s=20
Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England,[40] but has stated that "his faith comes and goes"[553] and that he is not a serious practising Christian.
Edit: got my cathedrals and abbeys confused!0 -
Cheeky.kinabalu said:
Haven't been following it that closely but I gather he popped over to Italy. Little holiday.IanB2 said:So, to put this to bed, does anyone have a link to some credible third party who definitely saw Johnson in the UK that weekend? Given the number of claimed engagements he had, there must be someone?
2 -
The last conservative in the Conservative party.Big_G_NorthWales said:
A woman of principleHYUFD said:
Much to Labour's delight, she could never get enough Labour support for her WA as PM but now she is rebelling to preserve it in full Labour cannot wait to get behind herwilliamglenn said:
https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1308086527445143553?s=20
https://twitter.com/LucyMPowell/status/1308086915137232896?s=20
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Clearly vital that we establish credentials for irrational beliefs. The world burns but if you don't say the right things when you lick a toad then that's far worse.HYUFD said:
In Catholic doctrine if you are baptised Catholic you are Catholic until death, even if a lapsed one or you become a member of the Church of EnglandRobD said:
He's CoE, according to wiki:dixiedean said:
That may explain his attitude towards contraception.HYUFD said:Interesting to note as Boris was baptised Catholic if Biden becomes US President it will be the first time we have had baptised Roman Catholics as both UK PM and US President in what are traditionally Protestant nations, I am sure the Vatican would take note, though Ian Paisley may be turning in his grave
https://twitter.com/holysmoke/status/1308084702687965184?s=20
Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England,[40] but has stated that "his faith comes and goes"[553] and that he is not a serious practising Christian.0 -
Maybe you should follow it closelykinabalu said:
Haven't been following it that closely but I gather he popped over to Italy. Little holiday.IanB2 said:So, to put this to bed, does anyone have a link to some credible third party who definitely saw Johnson in the UK that weekend? Given the number of claimed engagements he had, there must be someone?
1 -
True, although in my case I would like to make it clear that at a few days old I didn't give informed consent.HYUFD said:
In Catholic doctrine if you are baptised Catholic you are Catholic until death, even if a lapsed one or you become a member of the Church of EnglandRobD said:
He's CoE, according to wiki:dixiedean said:
That may explain his attitude towards contraception.HYUFD said:Interesting to note as Boris was baptised Catholic if Biden becomes US President it will be the first time we have had baptised Roman Catholics as both UK PM and US President in what are traditionally Protestant nations, I am sure the Vatican would take note, though Ian Paisley may be turning in his grave
https://twitter.com/holysmoke/status/1308084702687965184?s=20
Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England,[40] but has stated that "his faith comes and goes"[553] and that he is not a serious practising Christian.3 -
In 9 days time we should be over 8,700 cases. My guess is it will be more like 6k (which is bad enough).another_richard said:Re the government graph of cases doubling every 7 days:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1307991700216766464/photo/1
3,105 new cases on 15th September should give new 6,210 cases on 22nd September.
Today, the 21st, new cases were 4,368.
We can look forward to checking the government's 'prediction' tomorrow.0 -
Geometric progression is the same as exponential growth for discrete time steps.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Aren't exponential growth and geometric growth just different words for the same thing? As I understand it, they both describe growth whose rate is proportional to the current magnitude of a quantity. Linear, quadratic, cubic, etc. growth are faster at first, but don't accelerate as rapidly as exponential/geometric growth.RobD said:
As for your example, the geometric growth would be massively faster than the exponential growth during the first twenty or thirty days. If you were comparing the two you'd hardly see the exponential one moving since all the action occurs right at the end.DavidL said:So, and please correct me if I am wrong, using @Andy_JS 's excellent lily pad example if it takes 48 days to cover the pond then on exponential growth half of the pond was covered in 47 days. On geometric growth it would be at 24 days?
And if it took us 17 days to go from 2k to 4k cases a day in another 28 days we will be at 7.3k (2000 x28/17 +4) cases rather than 50K.
As I say, happy to be corrected.
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Elder Scrolls has a big big name, so does Fallout, even with some misteps, and the newer Id software games seem to have gone down very well for the most part. Personally I love all the Dishonored games, even Death of the Outsider, but that is probably it's end so it is the odd one out. But arguments over quality aside, it looks like a smart investment as the various companies make some pretty well selling titles.rcs1000 said:
That's a lot of money for some so-so franchises: Dishonered probably won't have a third outing (I loved the first, but was bored silly by the second), Wolfenstein is OK, Elder Scrolls is good (but Witcher is better in that space), and Fallout is somewhat damaged property after their MMORPG issues.FrancisUrquhart said:Wow this is a big move...
BBC News - Microsoft buys Fallout creator Bethesda for $7.5bn
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/54233235
As @MaxPB says, this is all about Microsoft trying to own the subscription space. I'd also argue that they are trying to ensure that there are a maximum number of exclusives for Xbox over PS5.0 -
Anyone done any panic buying yet?0
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The scientists supported the "rule of six" as a measure to reduce rate of increase of case numbers. Early indications seem to be that it may be having an effect (and possibly earlier than could have originally been predicted) This is being ignored.DavidL said:
In 9 days time we should be over 8,700 cases. My guess is it will be more like 6k (which is bad enough).another_richard said:Re the government graph of cases doubling every 7 days:
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1307991700216766464/photo/1
3,105 new cases on 15th September should give new 6,210 cases on 22nd September.
Today, the 21st, new cases were 4,368.
We can look forward to checking the government's 'prediction' tomorrow.0 -
They’ll just get rowdier earlier, with a bit more energy.Richard_Nabavi said:
'Cos they get rowdier?Andy_JS said:
Maybe I'm stupid but why do people spread the virus more at pubs after 10pm compared to before 10pm?CorrectHorseBattery said:10PM curfew on pubs
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Ah, I had thought they meant it was growing at the same rate (i.e. 1->2, 2->3, 3->4 and so on). Hence the lily pad example where it was half covered in half the time.geoffw said:
Geometric progression is the same as exponential growth for discrete time steps.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Aren't exponential growth and geometric growth just different words for the same thing? As I understand it, they both describe growth whose rate is proportional to the current magnitude of a quantity. Linear, quadratic, cubic, etc. growth are faster at first, but don't accelerate as rapidly as exponential/geometric growth.RobD said:
As for your example, the geometric growth would be massively faster than the exponential growth during the first twenty or thirty days. If you were comparing the two you'd hardly see the exponential one moving since all the action occurs right at the end.DavidL said:So, and please correct me if I am wrong, using @Andy_JS 's excellent lily pad example if it takes 48 days to cover the pond then on exponential growth half of the pond was covered in 47 days. On geometric growth it would be at 24 days?
And if it took us 17 days to go from 2k to 4k cases a day in another 28 days we will be at 7.3k (2000 x28/17 +4) cases rather than 50K.
As I say, happy to be corrected.0 -
31 thousand cases over (say) 3 days would be 10,000 cases a day which is lower than some of spain's recent days.williamglenn said:
Big scary numbers FFS.0 -
Divide it over two days, the conventional length of a weekend, and it's at 15,000... or higher than recent days.contrarian said:
31 thousand cases over (say) 3 days would be 10,000 cases a day which is lower than some of spain's recent days.williamglenn said:
Big scary numbers FFS.0 -
Deja curious all over again.williamglenn said:0 -
In fairness, that is probably my fault. When I used geometrically I actually meant linearly.FeersumEnjineeya said:
I think you mean linearly rather than geometrically.RobD said:
I don't think it is evidence against either model, actually. The rate on hospital admissions does suggest that it is growing more exponentially than geometrically, however.DavidL said:
I agree with that and would again suggest that supports the growth in cases as being geometric to date. Numbers have come up from under a thousand to over 4k pretty quickly.RobD said:
As for your example, the geometric growth would be massively faster than the exponential growth during the first twenty or thirty days. If you were comparing the two you'd hardly see the exponential one moving since all the action occurs right at the end.DavidL said:So, and please correct me if I am wrong, using @Andy_JS 's excellent lily pad example if it takes 48 days to cover the pond then on exponential growth half of the pond was covered in 47 days. On geometric growth it would be at 24 days?
And if it took us 17 days to go from 2k to 4k cases a day in another 28 days we will be at 7.3k (2000 x28/17 +4) cases rather than 50K.
As I say, happy to be corrected.0 -
The cynic in me suggests that this is something to with future schooling arrangements for Johnson Junior.RobD said:
He's CoE, according to wiki:dixiedean said:
That may explain his attitude towards contraception.HYUFD said:Interesting to note as Boris was baptised Catholic if Biden becomes US President it will be the first time we have had baptised Roman Catholics as both UK PM and US President in what are traditionally Protestant nations, I am sure the Vatican would take note, though Ian Paisley may be turning in his grave
https://twitter.com/holysmoke/status/1308084702687965184?s=20
Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England,[40] but has stated that "his faith comes and goes"[553] and that he is not a serious practising Christian.1 -
Les Ferdinand getting a lot of support on social media for a stand against poppyism.0
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That is linear.RobD said:
Ah, I had thought they meant it was growing at the same rate (i.e. 1->2, 2->3, 3->4 and so on). Hence the lily pad example where it was half covered in half the time.geoffw said:
Geometric progression is the same as exponential growth for discrete time steps.FeersumEnjineeya said:
Aren't exponential growth and geometric growth just different words for the same thing? As I understand it, they both describe growth whose rate is proportional to the current magnitude of a quantity. Linear, quadratic, cubic, etc. growth are faster at first, but don't accelerate as rapidly as exponential/geometric growth.RobD said:
As for your example, the geometric growth would be massively faster than the exponential growth during the first twenty or thirty days. If you were comparing the two you'd hardly see the exponential one moving since all the action occurs right at the end.DavidL said:So, and please correct me if I am wrong, using @Andy_JS 's excellent lily pad example if it takes 48 days to cover the pond then on exponential growth half of the pond was covered in 47 days. On geometric growth it would be at 24 days?
And if it took us 17 days to go from 2k to 4k cases a day in another 28 days we will be at 7.3k (2000 x28/17 +4) cases rather than 50K.
As I say, happy to be corrected.
But the discussion here is more intertwined that the ivy I've spent the afternoon lifting off our wall.
0 -
Very glad that Theresa May is now a backbencher and not a PM, good riddance to someone so weak at dealing with Europe. They walked all over her and she's not gotten any better since.0
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I suspect not, in practice. It will also reduce the numbers who go to the pub in the first place (not great for the struggling publicans, of course).Jonathan said:
They’ll just get rowdier earlier, with a bit more energy.Richard_Nabavi said:
'Cos they get rowdier?Andy_JS said:
Maybe I'm stupid but why do people spread the virus more at pubs after 10pm compared to before 10pm?CorrectHorseBattery said:10PM curfew on pubs
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I think there is significant evidence that the trade offs being served up to us are and hgave been manifestly false. Ferguson's half a million. That absurd table today from Whitty and Vallance.Richard_Nabavi said:
Those 'extra cancer deaths and suicides' haven't appeared in the excess deaths figures yet. It is possible, indeed probable, that they will eventually. No-one has ever denied that, nor is there a living soul who has denied that the economic effects of lockdown are dire (although they might not be more dire than letting rip, it's hard to say).contrarian said:
Or its the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy, which goes along the lines of, in order for you to be convinced our measures first time around worked, there has to be a big reaction when they are removed. Otherwise you'll be complaining about all those extra cancer deaths and suicides our measures caused, not to mention the mass uneployment.
What you don't seem to be able to understand is that this a difficult set of trade-offs, and there are no magic bullets that will somehow make the problems go away. Whitty, Vallance etc completely understand that, and repeatedly make it clear that they understand it.0 -
She negotiated away much of the cliff edge that is now confronting Boris Johnson.Philip_Thompson said:Very glad that Theresa May is now a backbencher and not a PM, good riddance to someone so weak at dealing with Europe. They walked all over her and she's not gotten any better since.
0 -
Did it a while back when Boris Johnson introduced the Internal Market Bill and we were headed for No Deal.OnlyLivingBoy said:Anyone done any panic buying yet?
Fortunately my father's a lifelong hoarder, so I reckon we can go around a year without struggling.0 -
Still on the first lot.OnlyLivingBoy said:Anyone done any panic buying yet?
0 -
1
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I am still opening cupboards and finding bog roll Mrs U bought from Costco by the 1000, because it was on some super offer or something ages ago.TheScreamingEagles said:
Did it a while back when Boris Johnson introduced the Internal Market Bill and we were headed for No Deal.OnlyLivingBoy said:Anyone done any panic buying yet?
Fortunately my father's a lifelong hoarder, so I reckon we can go around a year without struggling.0 -
You must have a large freezer to store all those pineapple pizzas.TheScreamingEagles said:
Did it a while back when Boris Johnson introduced the Internal Market Bill and we were headed for No Deal.OnlyLivingBoy said:Anyone done any panic buying yet?
Fortunately my father's a lifelong hoarder, so I reckon we can go around a year without struggling.0 -
The longer you're in the pub the more drunk you get, the drunker you get, the more you forget about social distancing.Andy_JS said:
Maybe I'm stupid but why do people spread the virus more at pubs after 10pm compared to before 10pm?CorrectHorseBattery said:10PM curfew on pubs
So shutting at the 10pm stops the opportunities for social distancing to collapse.0 -
She'll probably be remembered as one of the worst PMs ever. Woefully unfair when you know the ups and downs of her years, but a damning certainty when you don't make those allowances.Philip_Thompson said:Very glad that Theresa May is now a backbencher and not a PM, good riddance to someone so weak at dealing with Europe. They walked all over her and she's not gotten any better since.
A slight degree of competency on her part could well have seen us saying she was the best PM ever. An astonishing falling short.1 -
"comes and goes" like he does with his womenRobD said:
He's CoE, according to wiki:dixiedean said:
That may explain his attitude towards contraception.HYUFD said:Interesting to note as Boris was baptised Catholic if Biden becomes US President it will be the first time we have had baptised Roman Catholics as both UK PM and US President in what are traditionally Protestant nations, I am sure the Vatican would take note, though Ian Paisley may be turning in his grave
https://twitter.com/holysmoke/status/1308084702687965184?s=20
Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England,[40] but has stated that "his faith comes and goes"[553] and that he is not a serious practising Christian.
2 -
Though it looks like Boris baptised his son a Catholic at Westminster Cathedral not the Anglican Westminster AbbeyRobD said:
Yeah, but that doesn't stop you baptising your children at an anglican church.HYUFD said:
In Catholic doctrine if you are born Catholic you are Catholic until death, even if a lapsed one or a member of the Church of EnglandRobD said:
He's CoE, according to wiki:dixiedean said:
That may explain his attitude towards contraception.HYUFD said:Interesting to note as Boris was baptised Catholic if Biden becomes US President it will be the first time we have had baptised Roman Catholics as both UK PM and US President in what are traditionally Protestant nations, I am sure the Vatican would take note, though Ian Paisley may be turning in his grave
https://twitter.com/holysmoke/status/1308084702687965184?s=20
Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England,[40] but has stated that "his faith comes and goes"[553] and that he is not a serious practising Christian.
Edit: got my cathedrals and abbeys confused!0 -
Ampleforth?No_Offence_Alan said:
The cynic in me suggests that this is something to with future schooling arrangements for Johnson Junior.RobD said:
He's CoE, according to wiki:dixiedean said:
That may explain his attitude towards contraception.HYUFD said:Interesting to note as Boris was baptised Catholic if Biden becomes US President it will be the first time we have had baptised Roman Catholics as both UK PM and US President in what are traditionally Protestant nations, I am sure the Vatican would take note, though Ian Paisley may be turning in his grave
https://twitter.com/holysmoke/status/1308084702687965184?s=20
Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England,[40] but has stated that "his faith comes and goes"[553] and that he is not a serious practising Christian.0 -
Oratory. Freebie.HYUFD said:
Ampleforth?No_Offence_Alan said:
The cynic in me suggests that this is something to with future schooling arrangements for Johnson Junior.RobD said:
He's CoE, according to wiki:dixiedean said:
That may explain his attitude towards contraception.HYUFD said:Interesting to note as Boris was baptised Catholic if Biden becomes US President it will be the first time we have had baptised Roman Catholics as both UK PM and US President in what are traditionally Protestant nations, I am sure the Vatican would take note, though Ian Paisley may be turning in his grave
https://twitter.com/holysmoke/status/1308084702687965184?s=20
Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England,[40] but has stated that "his faith comes and goes"[553] and that he is not a serious practising Christian.1 -
Sky News reporter in Madrid saying that people appear to be basically ignoring their new lockdown.
Seems like the behavioural scientists might have been right about people can only take very stringent conditions on their lives for a short window.
Personally i blame big dom that the Spanish are carrying on against the rules.3 -
No, she'll be seen as what she was: a moderately poor PM with a good sense of duty, who tried to square the Brexit circle, but who screwed up an election and as a result found herself in an utterly impossible position for which she was temperamentally ill-suited.Omnium said:
She'll probably be remembered as one of the worst PMs ever. Woefully unfair when you know the ups and downs of her years, but a damning certainty when you don't make those allowances.Philip_Thompson said:Very glad that Theresa May is now a backbencher and not a PM, good riddance to someone so weak at dealing with Europe. They walked all over her and she's not gotten any better since.
A slight degree of competency on her part could well have seen us saying she was the best PM ever. An astonishing falling short.1 -
A few years ago there was a show called 'Doomsday Preppers' about people who prepare for various types of doomsday scenario, some of them hoarded as much stock as a supermarket warehouse for the inevitable apocalypse.FrancisUrquhart said:
I am still opening cupboards and finding bog roll Mrs U bought from Costco by the 1000, because it was on some super offer or something ages ago.TheScreamingEagles said:
Did it a while back when Boris Johnson introduced the Internal Market Bill and we were headed for No Deal.OnlyLivingBoy said:Anyone done any panic buying yet?
Fortunately my father's a lifelong hoarder, so I reckon we can go around a year without struggling.
It was like watching a documentary about my father, my mother and myself used to take the piss out of him for years, he's been unbelievably smug since lockdown was introduced.0 -
It’s Friday Saturday Sunday but likely to be added to as more confirmed cases come in 168 deathsRobD said:
Divide it over two days, the conventional length of a weekend, and it's at 15,000... or higher than recent days.contrarian said:
31 thousand cases over (say) 3 days would be 10,000 cases a day which is lower than some of spain's recent days.williamglenn said:
Big scary numbers FFS.0 -
Bleugh.RobD said:
You must have a large freezer to store all those pineapple pizzas.TheScreamingEagles said:
Did it a while back when Boris Johnson introduced the Internal Market Bill and we were headed for No Deal.OnlyLivingBoy said:Anyone done any panic buying yet?
Fortunately my father's a lifelong hoarder, so I reckon we can go around a year without struggling.0 -
But you were seething with original sin.Richard_Nabavi said:
True, although in my case I would like to make it clear that at a few days old I didn't give informed consent.HYUFD said:
In Catholic doctrine if you are baptised Catholic you are Catholic until death, even if a lapsed one or you become a member of the Church of EnglandRobD said:
He's CoE, according to wiki:dixiedean said:
That may explain his attitude towards contraception.HYUFD said:Interesting to note as Boris was baptised Catholic if Biden becomes US President it will be the first time we have had baptised Roman Catholics as both UK PM and US President in what are traditionally Protestant nations, I am sure the Vatican would take note, though Ian Paisley may be turning in his grave
https://twitter.com/holysmoke/status/1308084702687965184?s=20
Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England,[40] but has stated that "his faith comes and goes"[553] and that he is not a serious practising Christian.
Righto, Guv - just as soon as I finish bogarting me virtual spliffffff . . .Foxy said:
Pint of virtual IPA for me please...SeaShantyIrish2 said:
For many PBers, this site IS their pub.Anabobazina said:
I suspect that is the case for several PBers!!Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have not been to a pub in decadesPulpstar said:10 pm pub curfew. Hmm.
0
