Categories
The challenge for Trump is that white voters are now significantly less likely to support him than a
The challenge for Trump is that white voters are now significantly less likely to support him than at WH2016 – politicalbetting.com
From @FiveThirtyEight the latest trend in its national polling average pic.twitter.com/BeSqmShw4E
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Is there going to be real 'debates' because that's the thing which would shift anything.
Until then it's just broad claim and counter claim and BS from Trump.
There is also a difference still amongst white voters based on education, Trump leads white no college voters by 10% but he trails to Biden with white college educated voters by 6%
https://morningconsult.com/2020/09/17/trump-biden-race-education-voters/
I noticed that was a change of tack by Trump in his rallies, he basically tried the pity Joe, he is old and tired, but he isn't what you should worry about, it is Harris, she is far left, yadda yadda yadda, she will be the one making the decisions.
Does anyone know anything about the Tyson Group polls? Some massive swings in southern states in their recent polls. I wonder whether that's because the polls are no good, or because it indicates higher black turnout, or for some other reason.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/21/madrid-opera-halted-by-audience-protest-over-lack-of-social-distancing
Surveillance cameras made by Hikvision, the Chinese company that has been implicated in grave human rights violations and has been blacklisted by the US government, are being used across the UK, from leisure centres in London to school toilets in west Norfolk.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/21/chinese-spy-tech-firm-linked-uighur-abuses-increases-uk-presence
In fact it's worse than that, social distancing appears to be something whoever was selling the tickets believed the audience should pay for ! It's a requirement for anything like this right now, not some luxury.
Same for Starmer in the UK. Against all the evidence to the contrary, Boris "Fuck Business" Johnson has better numbers on the economy.
* Mind you, given the age profile of the typical Wigmore Hall audience, that's just as well.
Sweden’s strategy was subjected to a global smear campaign, but now it’s showing results.
Fraser Myers"
https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/09/21/sweden-has-exposed-the-cruel-folly-of-lockdown/
Interestingly, it found Shy Trumptons on the margins in higher income groups and Shy Bidenites on the margins in lower income groups.
https://morningconsult.com/form/shy-trump-2020/
It seems like am authoritarian, left wing policy from Boris to me - that's why Starmer cant criticise it; all he can do is say he agrees, but would implement it more effectively
There is nothing between Boris' Tories, Sir Keir's Labour, Sir Ed's Lib Dems and the Greens, Scot Nats and Welshies in the HofC when it comes to a vision to see us through Covid - can anyone point to any of them saying they would have done anything differently? Farage looks like being the only one to offer the significant minority/possible majority who disagree with the Westminster bubble a choice - again
Our super-excitable, super-extremist Tories are running with this already, I see.
I like to think people may be tired of the pace of recent years and be looking for a slightly more measured period in the US, but that may well be hope over expectation. Quite a lot of people plainly like the manic. stream of consciousness anger and energy of Trump.
Everywhere else chops and changes.
I think it is valid to say you can't just transport Sweden's approach (or New Zealand approach at the other end of the scale) to say the UK. But what they could have done is developed a long term set of rules, which we were going to stick by for many many months.
One takeaway from this morning, it does sound like at least Witty / Valance, now see this as the way forward, as they talked about the need for restrictions for 6 months. Gone are this, just do this for a little while and we will get through this.
The groundwork all sounded like whatever is going to be announced will be in place until next summer.
As would large numbers of traditional Labout voters who want nothing more than to see the end of this Tory rottenness and cruelty.
I found two pieces this morning (by accident) from John Harris and Zoe Williams, which attack it from a left-libertarian standpoint – but those are the only senior commentators I have seen thus far critiquing from the left.
Same here if you are rich and living in Oxford or Richmond Park you are likely to keep quiet about having voted for Brexit and Boris whereas if you live in Stoke or Grimsby you will proclaim your support for Brexit and Boris without question and vice versa
Quite so. One of the big problems the virologists have had is the very low level of community transmission, thus slowing down the trials.
More of the same please
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8755321/Professor-Chris-Whitty-warns-UK-heading-wrong-direction.html
Seems unlikely the events dataset would be completed here before there ... Or are the datasets mixed together and not kept separate from each other?
B 49
T 46
You had months of warning about the Corona virus, and you are still only just waking up to it. And you have had years to plan for Brexit, and you still don´t know what you are going to do about it.
The Conservative Party is doomed. All they want to see is the destruction of our country and the selling off of the pieces to their wealthy crooked friends.
So it seems shy Trump backers are really found now amongst rich voters
The problem is everyone's definition is different and if a party calling itself Liberal or Democratic doesn't met their interpretation, they go off on one and tell everyone said Party is neither Liberal nor Democratic.
I don't think the Party which has a majority in the Commons is conservative - it calls itself Conservative but it's nearer to Liberal Unionism with bit of populism thrown in.
Perhaps Sir Ed Davey should borrow the Populist bit and rename the LDs as the Liberal, Democratic and Popular Party. That will then give three things to which everyone can object.
The amount of people, though, who seem to believe Sweden had no restrictions and minimal damage is almost scary. It's like it's a shibboleth where the actual details are all-but-irrelevant.
The Swedish Model
(As per Tegnell)
- Find the minimum level of restrictions that will work for your country (all countries have different situations and requirements)
- Apply those restrictions and hold them over the long term, not chopping and changing up and down.
The downsides are:
- As your R number is only just below 1, it'll take longer to subside. And thus you'll incur several times the number of deaths early on (and worse economic damage) than you would if you brought it down faster.
(eg the difference between accepting an R number of 0.9 and an R number of 0.7 is a factor of 3 to 4 times as many deaths after 20 cycles).
- You accept a higher level of restrictions than you need to later in the pandemic
The upsides are:
- Your population knows exactly what's expected at all times and has the consistency of direction that's been lacking over here.
- You have fractionally more freedoms early on in the pandemic.
That's it. There's no magic, no wand to wave.
Personally, I'm coming to believe that a blended model would be best. Go in hard early on and reduce restrictions ONCE. I reckon a population could cope with that. Bring down the death rate early on with a lower R number (avoid that several-times-higher-than-necessary death rate and associated economic damage) AND benefit from consistency when you reduce the restrictions just once.
I doubt that I'll see any articles covering this, though. They all seem focused on some fantasy-Sweden that fits what the writer wants to be true.
Given the complete lack of anything you have to provide for an American poll I fear it seems strangely plausible.
Given that I actually voted Lib Dem in the election rather than tory, Id be interested to see this direction of travel.
https://twitter.com/NickSquires1/status/1308034955126222848
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/north-carolina-2020-biden-and-trump-in-dead-heat
Hopefully someone else does have one.
Also that plan to host Euro 2020/21 across lots of European cities may also get nixed.
Cutting edge AI would generate my random numbers.
I can't say I am not gutted that Bozza is innocent!
The NC polls should get significantly more accurate closer to election 'day'
It would be darkly hilarious of Biden gets big swings with the HS or less crowd but their turnout falls allowing the rich shy trumpets to swing the election.
It's very different to see into the future - I don't know what's going to win the third race at Wolverhampton this evening and no one has come back from the year 2100 to confirm if Tottenham fell out of the Football League after relegation from League 2 - so trying to see the political landscape of May 2021 and the huge round of elections which will no doubt be called a "Mini General Election" by the indolent and the idiotic.
If, as some on here seem to think, we will be fighting over the last tins of beans with 20 million unemployed, I could imagine there being a bit of a backlash against the Government. Even those who argue for 6 million unemployed seem unable to fathom out the politics of mass unemployment in the mid 2020s.
There are two phases to this - there's the "The lot in charge are the best on offer but I'm going to give them a kicking for what they have done and are doing" which might work well for the LDs and BP if they stand but then there's the "I've had enough of this lot - the other lot sound reasonable, perhaps it's time to give them a go" which will be food news for Starmer.
I suspect 2021 will see plenty of the former and the years after more of the latter.
Of course Tony....has been mates with Evgeny Lebedev for years. Just saying like.
This lot can't be correct, at least 1.8% - 2.6% of the electorate have already cast a mail-in ballot.
Edit: The hard floor on ballots already in is 1.74%.
They’ll need protocols in place for players who are driven mad and need to leave for a week or two, and accept the need to rotate the squad.
*I deserve to be flogged for that horrendous tautology.
Just been for a walk. Outside very middle class house, sprawling across a hedge a c12 foot home made banner yelling
"YES TO INFORMAL CHILDCARE."
I had no idea what that was, but it appears to be this.
https://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/2020-09-19/north-east-leaders-appeal-to-government-to-amend-childcare-restrictions-in-new-covid-guidelines
Never, ever seen a political banner in 15 years in this village before.
There's also a problem of communication with the 'R' value. Perhaps better to put it in terms people can more easily understand: restrict your diet to 500 calories and your weight will drop quickly but unpleasantly, gorge on 4000 and you'll balloon, keep steady on 1500 or so without yo-yoing up and down and you'll lose weight consistently without starving, just like a Swedish Model...