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The challenge for Trump is that white voters are now significantly less likely to support him than a

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 21 in General
The challenge for Trump is that white voters are now significantly less likely to support him than at WH2016 – politicalbetting.com

From @FiveThirtyEight the latest trend in its national polling average pic.twitter.com/BeSqmShw4E

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,066
    1st, like Hidin' Biden.
  • Oh dear, how sad, never mind.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 8,406
    Seems to me the US polls are in a holding position.

    Is there going to be real 'debates' because that's the thing which would shift anything.

    Until then it's just broad claim and counter claim and BS from Trump.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,329
    edited September 21
    Yes, Biden has gained with white voters, Trump's lead with them has fallen from 15% to just 5% according to Morning Consult however Trump has made gains with Hispanic voters, Biden leading with Hispanics by just 21% compared to the 37% Hillary won Hispanics by. Trump is also doing slightly better with black voters, getting 10% of them compared to 9% in 2016 while Biden is getting only 84% of black voters compared to 89% for Hillary.

    There is also a difference still amongst white voters based on education, Trump leads white no college voters by 10% but he trails to Biden with white college educated voters by 6%

    https://morningconsult.com/2020/09/17/trump-biden-race-education-voters/
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,487
    edited September 21
    I am not sure Sleepy Joe nickname is going down too badly. The idea of electing somebody who is too tired to do too much probably doesn't scare the horses in the way say a Bernie, I am going to bring in Socialism, Democratic Socialism, Viva the Revolution, Sanders would.

    I noticed that was a change of tack by Trump in his rallies, he basically tried the pity Joe, he is old and tired, but he isn't what you should worry about, it is Harris, she is far left, yadda yadda yadda, she will be the one making the decisions.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 2,004
    I am a bit wary of this sort of comparison without doing it like-for-like, looking at what the polls said last time.

    Does anyone know anything about the Tyson Group polls? Some massive swings in southern states in their recent polls. I wonder whether that's because the polls are no good, or because it indicates higher black turnout, or for some other reason.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,453

    I am not sure Sleep Joe nickname is going down too badly. The idea of electing somebody who is too tired to do too much probably doesn't scare the horses in the way say a Bernie, I am going to bring in Socialism, Sanders would.

    The debates will be the main test of this.
  • The Trump campaign didn't strike a chord in 2016 because of abortion or woke politics. it appealed directly to the economic concerns of the "left-behind" blue collar folk. Nostalgia for the good times of eight months probably isn't what you want here.
  • I am not sure Sleepy Joe nickname is going down too badly. The idea of electing somebody who is too tired to do too much probably doesn't scare the horses in the way say a Bernie, I am going to bring in Socialism, Democratic Socialism, Viva the Revolution, Sanders would.

    I noticed that was a change of tack by Trump in his rallies, he basically tried the pity Joe, he is old and tired, but he isn't what you should worry about, it is Harris, she is far left, yadda yadda yadda, she will be the one making the decisions.

    After the last few years and this year in particular I think that someone being beige and boring is about as appealing as it could ever be.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,066

    I am not sure Sleepy Joe nickname is going down too badly. The idea of electing somebody who is too tired to do too much probably doesn't scare the horses in the way say a Bernie, I am going to bring in Socialism, Democratic Socialism, Viva the Revolution, Sanders would.

    I noticed that was a change of tack by Trump in his rallies, he basically tried the pity Joe, he is old and tired, but he isn't what you should worry about, it is Harris, she is far left, yadda yadda yadda, she will be the one making the decisions.

    Is that Kamala the cop ?
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 927
    sarissa said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    kamski said:

    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    kamski said:

    There must be conservatives on the supreme court who are worried that the majority of americans lose all faith in the supreme court as an institution who must be against pushing through a nomination.

    There is one - Roberts.
    Thomas and Alito ? You’re joking. Kavanaugh clearly doesn’t give much of a damn about public opinion; Gorsuch, unlikely, but time will tell.

    If the Republicans seat another Justice after what they pulled with Garland, because it’s ‘within their rights’, I think it almost certain a Democratic Senate majority will expand the court, since that is equally ‘within their rights’.

    On the second point, even Senate moderates agree.

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/for-mitch-mcconnell-keeping-his-senate-majority-matters-more-than-the-supreme-court
    ... Senator Tim Kaine, of Virginia, who is ordinarily a mainstream Democrat, has said he could support enlarging the court as a tactic, if the Republicans force a confirmation vote...
    Doubt Dems would get 50 senators lined up on that.

    I think it's a pretty simple decision for a man with no scruples. Mitch is going to make sure there's a conservative majority.
    Why do you doubt that? Seems to be an increasingly mainstream view in the Democratic Party. The GOP has been trampling on conventions for years, now its time for the Dems to play dirty otherwise their legislative agenda will just be picked apart by the court for years to come.
    Oh I agree that the democrats *should* wake up and realize they are playing by rules the other side have been ignoring for years. But they aren't going to.

    Biden said he wouldn't try it last year. Even if he changes his mind, they would need to win the Senate AND have basically all Democratic senators on board. The likes of Joe Manchin are just not going to go along with it.

    https://iowastartingline.com/2019/07/05/joe-biden-interview-talk-about-the-future-in-dem-primary/
    And even if the Dems manage to get a senate "majority" that doesn't depend on the likes of Joe Manchin, it's unlikely to last long:
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-senates-rural-skew-makes-it-very-hard-for-democrats-to-win-the-supreme-court/
    is well-worth reading.

    The conservative minority in america effectively has a blocking majority in the Senate, it's effectively the same as the 19th Century conservative blocking majority in the House of Lords, which only (mostly) ended when the Liberals won general elections fought on the issue of reducing the power of the HoL in 1910, and passed the subsequent 1911 Parliament Act.

    It's hard to see how the US can become a democracy though.
    Hardly, the Democrats had a huge Senate majority of 57 to just 41 for the Republicans as recently as 2008.

    The fact West Virginia is a socially conservative state that only elects socially conservative Democrats, a similar situation to most border and southern states, does not mean the Democrats cannot get a big majority there however it simply reflects the fact that most Americans are not social liberals, that is not a problem of democracy however
    Totally wrong.
    And: try reading the article.
    "Because there are a lot of largely rural, low-population states, the average state — which reflects the composition of the Senate — has 35 percent of its population in rural areas and only 14 percent in urban core areas, even though the country as a whole — including dense, high-population states like New York, Texas and California — has about 25 percent of the population in each group. That’s a pretty serious skew. It means that the Senate, de facto, has two or three times as much rural representation as urban core representation … even though there are actually about an equal number of voters in each bucket nationwide.

    And of course, this has all sorts of other downstream consequences. Since rural areas tend to be whiter, it means the Senate represents a whiter population, too. In the U.S. as a whole, 60 percent of the population is non-Hispanic white and 40 percent of the population is nonwhite.1 But in the average state, 68 percent of people are white and 32 percent are nonwhite."

    "the Senate is effectively 6 to 7 percentage points redder than the country as a whole, which means that Democrats are likely to win it only in the event of a near-landslide in their favor nationally. That’s likely to make the Republican majority on the Supreme Court pretty durable."

    not only is the Senate anti-democratic, it is also anti-democratic in a racist way.
    So what, the House seats are allocated on the basis of population and had a Republican majority from 2010 to 2018 including from 2010 to 2014 when the Senate had a Democratic majority. So the idea the Democrats can never win the Senate is absurd.

    All you are posting is left liberal whining, totally ignoring the balance of power the founding fathers put into the US constitution to ensure no state was ignored and all states gained equal representation in the Senate and contributed, even if the House seats were determined by population, with the EC being a halfway house, with EC votes awarded by population but every state getting a minimal representation of electors.

    California for example has 53 US Representatives, Wyoming just 1.

    I know you worship the "founding fathers" as god-like beings, but I don't, and your account of their motivation is just stupid propaganda.

    The House also has a pro-Republican bias due to gerrymandering and Democrat voter inefficiency, it does not have PR, or even remotely reasonable boundaries in many cases. So your "point" about the House is moronic.

    Are you disputing the facts in the 538 article about the Senate? And if so which ones? I'd love to hear your expertise.
    It doesn't matter. The system is the system what is whinging about it going to achieve?

    To change the system can't be done with a majority of the House as happened in the UK with the Parliament Actin the Commons. To change the system requires the consent of two-thirds of the States and those States are never under any circumstances going to agree to that.

    The Democrats need to find a way of appealing more to the other States - they did when they won a massive majority of the Senate only a few years ago. Whinging about the system won't achieve change.
    What on earth makes you think that me pointing out certain facts on this forum is going to "achieve change"? Like I said, it's hard to see how the US becomes a democracy.

    Obviously these facts are uncomfortable for certain posters on here, but they remain facts.

    Anyone who uses the word "whinging" to describe facts or opinions they don't like obviously has nothing useful to say.
    I apologise for the intemperate language, but the point behind it remains.

    I want the Democrats to win - or more importantly I want Trump's GOP to be smashed. But many who support the Democrats seem to think that saying that it is "so unfair" like a Harry Enfield Kevin and Perry sketch is more productive than the Democrats actually figuring out how to win in the States they need to win in.

    The USA is a Democracy, it is a Federal Democracy of States though. The Democrats need to figure out how to win across the Federation and not just in the high populace States.
    OK, but I am not in the US, nor posting on a US forum, so whatever I write is hardly likely to be productive nor unproductive. My opinion remains that the US is a highly flawed democracy, certainly compared to the least-flawed democracies (eg Scandinavian countries), and that the way an increasingly small minority can keep a majority in the Senate is part of the problem. This does not constitute advice to the Dems on how to win the next election!
    The whole of the population of Scandinavia combined is smaller than the population of the US states of California, Texas or Florida.

    Sweden is the same size as Michigan, Denmark or Norway are the same size as Maryland or Wisconsin so it is not a like for like comparison.

    The EU is more the equivalent of the US than Scandinavia is
    OK I wonder what is going on here. I posted a link to a sort-of on topic article showing how favourable the Senate is for the Republicans, and the responses are:

    1. "Whinging "it's unfair" won't help the democrats win an election." ??? I never suggested pointing out how much the senate currently favours the Republicans would help the Democrats.

    2. "Posting on PB about how unfair it is won't change the US constitution." ??? Do people think that posting on here about China arresting dissidents is going to stop China arresting dissidents? Not much point posting anything (which is no doubt true, yet you can say that about practically every post!)

    3. "The Democrats had a majority as recently as 2014." Sure, but that was based partly on Democrats having Senators from quite Republican states - a thing which is disappearing. And demographics are probably going to continue to make the Senate even less favourable to Democrats.

    4. "You can't expect the US to have the democratic standards of smaller democracies." This is an interesting argument, and perhaps has some merit. It would seem to support the idea of Scottish independence, for example, if smaller democracies are better democracies. Certainly, the US is more democratic than India "the largest democracy in the world" where Modi can arrest people who disagree with him with impunity. But not sure how relevant it is to the Senate being very favourable to the Republicans compared to their support.

    5. "The founding fathers intended it to be like this." - like a weird appeal to the authority of scripture.

    6. "It is good like this so the small states don't get overwhelmed by the big states" At least a relevant argument, although the "states" look like particularly artificial constructions to me, so I don't agree.

    7. "The US is like the EU" especially weird from people who love the US and hate the EU. Plus it really, really isn't.

    This kind of thing doesn't happen with criticism of other countries, it's as if people are identified with the US and are willing to make all kinds of twisted arguments to defend the indefensible - maybe some are indeed Americans, in which case it's understandable. But still, a bit weird.
    It maybe an argument for Scotland to be independent of both the UK and the EU, it is not an argument for Scotland to leave the UK to become a mere state of the even larger EU, note of the Scandinavian nations Norway never joined the EU and Sweden and Denmark never joined the Euro
    Gaining 75%-95% control of the major levers of power that you don't currently have is a win in my book.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 25,915

    I am not sure Sleepy Joe nickname is going down too badly. The idea of electing somebody who is too tired to do too much probably doesn't scare the horses in the way say a Bernie, I am going to bring in Socialism, Democratic Socialism, Viva the Revolution, Sanders would.

    I noticed that was a change of tack by Trump in his rallies, he basically tried the pity Joe, he is old and tired, but he isn't what you should worry about, it is Harris, she is far left, yadda yadda yadda, she will be the one making the decisions.

    Didn't he also say something about getting injected in the Oval Orifice every morning ?
  • HYUFD said:

    twitter.com/Independent/status/1308035913042350080?s=20

    Who are the Lib Dems? I have never heard of them.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,487
    edited September 21
    Chinese cameras blacklisted by US being used in UK school toilets

    Surveillance cameras made by Hikvision, the Chinese company that has been implicated in grave human rights violations and has been blacklisted by the US government, are being used across the UK, from leisure centres in London to school toilets in west Norfolk.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/21/chinese-spy-tech-firm-linked-uighur-abuses-increases-uk-presence
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,066
    edited September 21
    Nigelb said:
    You'd have thought those staging operas would have 2 metre gaps between different groups. The thought process of the stagers doesn't seem to have gone much beyond 'the opera is allowed to open now so lets just sell tickets as normal' though >.>
    In fact it's worse than that, social distancing appears to be something whoever was selling the tickets believed the audience should pay for ! It's a requirement for anything like this right now, not some luxury.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 4,782

    I am not sure Sleepy Joe nickname is going down too badly. The idea of electing somebody who is too tired to do too much probably doesn't scare the horses in the way say a Bernie, I am going to bring in Socialism, Democratic Socialism, Viva the Revolution, Sanders would.

    I noticed that was a change of tack by Trump in his rallies, he basically tried the pity Joe, he is old and tired, but he isn't what you should worry about, it is Harris, she is far left, yadda yadda yadda, she will be the one making the decisions.

    That reminds me of @Bobajob's old mantra about government hyperactivity – that most governments quite simply try to do too much. Therefore, doing less is a quality rather than a flaw.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 927

    The Trump campaign didn't strike a chord in 2016 because of abortion or woke politics. it appealed directly to the economic concerns of the "left-behind" blue collar folk. Nostalgia for the good times of eight months probably isn't what you want here.

    It wasn't so much the appeal as a last throw of the dice in the mistaken belief that their historic losses would be recovered - and consequently less likely to repeat this time around.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 11,624

    The Trump campaign didn't strike a chord in 2016 because of abortion or woke politics. it appealed directly to the economic concerns of the "left-behind" blue collar folk. Nostalgia for the good times of eight months probably isn't what you want here.

    Exactly this. The biggest threat to Biden is the unaccountable belief (according to polls) that Trump is good for the economy. He does need to have a better story on the economy, even if it's not really strong his strong suit.

    Same for Starmer in the UK. Against all the evidence to the contrary, Boris "Fuck Business" Johnson has better numbers on the economy.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 33,140

    HYUFD said:
    How generous of them. The previous policy of rejoining without public consent was much more LibDemish.
    You know, my confidence in Lord Adonis' predictions on this is starting to waver, it really is.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,990
    edited September 21
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:
    You'd have thought those staging operas would have 2 metre gaps between different groups. The thought process of the stagers doesn't seem to have gone much beyond 'the opera is allowed to open now so lets just sell tickets as normal' though >.>
    I went to a socially-distanced Wigmore Hall concert last week which was extremely well organised, with very strong social distancing*. Jolly good it was too - Sarah Connolly. We've just heard we've got tickets for Angela Hewitt playing the Art of Fugue next week - should be a real goody. I just have to hope Boris doesn't put the kibosh on it.

    * Mind you, given the age profile of the typical Wigmore Hall audience, that's just as well.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,844
    HYUFD said:
    Ooh, are we going to end up with a party that’s liberal and democratic?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,135
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:
    Ooh, are we going to end up with a party that’s liberal and democratic?
    Bollocks to bollocks to Brexit?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,096

    HYUFD said:

    twitter.com/Independent/status/1308035913042350080?s=20

    Who are the Lib Dems? I have never heard of them.
    They will be back in May when they relieve hundreds of tories of their council seats.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,453
    "Sweden has exposed the cruel folly of lockdown
    Sweden’s strategy was subjected to a global smear campaign, but now it’s showing results.
    Fraser Myers"

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/09/21/sweden-has-exposed-the-cruel-folly-of-lockdown/
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 4,782
    There's another interesting polling paper out today – the Morning Consult survey of Shy Trumptons.

    Interestingly, it found Shy Trumptons on the margins in higher income groups and Shy Bidenites on the margins in lower income groups.

    https://morningconsult.com/form/shy-trump-2020/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,066
    One thing about the upsurge in cases, it should mean the Oxford trial phase 3 (placebo group we hope!) events are triggering off quicker than they otherwise might. A larger final events dataset would also be more statistically reliable.
  • isamisam Posts: 34,038
    edited September 21

    There's another interesting polling paper out today – the Morning Consult survey of Shy Trumptons.

    Interestingly, it found Shy Trumptons on the margins in higher income groups and Shy Bidenites on the margins in lower income groups.

    https://morningconsult.com/form/shy-trump-2020/

    Re your post about left wingers with an alternative plan for dealing with Covid

    It seems like am authoritarian, left wing policy from Boris to me - that's why Starmer cant criticise it; all he can do is say he agrees, but would implement it more effectively

    There is nothing between Boris' Tories, Sir Keir's Labour, Sir Ed's Lib Dems and the Greens, Scot Nats and Welshies in the HofC when it comes to a vision to see us through Covid - can anyone point to any of them saying they would have done anything differently? Farage looks like being the only one to offer the significant minority/possible majority who disagree with the Westminster bubble a choice - again
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 462
    HYUFD said:
    So it´s just a proposal, not yet policy....

    Our super-excitable, super-extremist Tories are running with this already, I see.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,844
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:
    Ooh, are we going to end up with a party that’s liberal and democratic?
    Don't be ridiculous. What sort of a market is there for that sort of nonsense?
    Was it 57 seats with leader Nick Clegg, and his 2008 idea of an in/out referendum on EU membership?
  • Pulpstar said:

    One thing about the upsurge in cases, it should mean the Oxford trial phase 3 (placebo group we hope!) events are triggering off quicker than they otherwise might. A larger final events dataset would also be more statistically reliable.

    Still likely to be absolutely tiny numbers, though.
  • I am not sure Sleepy Joe nickname is going down too badly. The idea of electing somebody who is too tired to do too much probably doesn't scare the horses in the way say a Bernie, I am going to bring in Socialism, Democratic Socialism, Viva the Revolution, Sanders would.

    I noticed that was a change of tack by Trump in his rallies, he basically tried the pity Joe, he is old and tired, but he isn't what you should worry about, it is Harris, she is far left, yadda yadda yadda, she will be the one making the decisions.

    That reminds me of @Bobajob's old mantra about government hyperactivity – that most governments quite simply try to do too much. Therefore, doing less is a quality rather than a flaw.
    I tend to agree with that sentiment. The question, though, is whether it is a vote winner.

    I like to think people may be tired of the pace of recent years and be looking for a slightly more measured period in the US, but that may well be hope over expectation. Quite a lot of people plainly like the manic. stream of consciousness anger and energy of Trump.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,244
    edited September 21
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:
    Ooh, are we going to end up with a party that’s liberal and democratic?
    Not if PM Jo Swindon has anything to say about it.
  • isamisam Posts: 34,038

    I am not sure Sleepy Joe nickname is going down too badly. The idea of electing somebody who is too tired to do too much probably doesn't scare the horses in the way say a Bernie, I am going to bring in Socialism, Democratic Socialism, Viva the Revolution, Sanders would.

    I noticed that was a change of tack by Trump in his rallies, he basically tried the pity Joe, he is old and tired, but he isn't what you should worry about, it is Harris, she is far left, yadda yadda yadda, she will be the one making the decisions.

    That reminds me of @Bobajob's old mantra about government hyperactivity – that most governments quite simply try to do too much. Therefore, doing less is a quality rather than a flaw.
    I tend to agree with that sentiment. The question, though, is whether it is a vote winner.

    I like to think people may be tired of the pace of recent years and be looking for a slightly more measured period in the US, but that may well be hope over expectation. Quite a lot of people plainly like the manic. stream of consciousness anger and energy of Trump.
    Don't just do something, sit there!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,487
    edited September 21
    Andy_JS said:

    "Sweden has exposed the cruel folly of lockdown
    Sweden’s strategy was subjected to a global smear campaign, but now it’s showing results.
    Fraser Myers"

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/09/21/sweden-has-exposed-the-cruel-folly-of-lockdown/

    The big thing about Sweden's approach, rather lost in the lockdown vs no lockdown stuff. They came up with a consistent set of restrictions and stuck with them for 6+ months and will continue to do so (with some minor adjustments) until there is vaccine.

    Everywhere else chops and changes.

    I think it is valid to say you can't just transport Sweden's approach (or New Zealand approach at the other end of the scale) to say the UK. But what they could have done is developed a long term set of rules, which we were going to stick by for many many months.

    One takeaway from this morning, it does sound like at least Witty / Valance, now see this as the way forward, as they talked about the need for restrictions for 6 months. Gone are this, just do this for a little while and we will get through this.

    The groundwork all sounded like whatever is going to be announced will be in place until next summer.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 462
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:
    Ooh, are we going to end up with a party that’s liberal and democratic?
    Don't be ridiculous. What sort of a market is there for that sort of nonsense?
    Enormous, I would think, Mr DavidL. I would imagine that most traditional Conservative voters, tired of the antics and incompetence of the Johnson-Cummings faction that has taken over the Conservative Party, would be more than interested.

    As would large numbers of traditional Labout voters who want nothing more than to see the end of this Tory rottenness and cruelty.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 4,782
    edited September 21
    isam said:

    There's another interesting polling paper out today – the Morning Consult survey of Shy Trumptons.

    Interestingly, it found Shy Trumptons on the margins in higher income groups and Shy Bidenites on the margins in lower income groups.

    https://morningconsult.com/form/shy-trump-2020/

    Re your post about left wingers with an alternative plan for dealing with Covid

    It seems like am authoritarian, left wing policy from Boris to me - that's why Starmer cant criticise it; all he can do is say he agrees., but would implement it more effectively

    There is nothing between Boris' Tories, Sir Keir's Labour, Sir Ed's Lib Dems and the Greens, Scot Nats and Welshies in the HofC when it comes to a vision to see us through Covid - can anyone point to any of them saying they would have done anything differently? Farage looks like being the only one to offer the significant minority/possible majority who disagree with the Westminster bubble a choice - again
    I think that's right – and I concede that you were correct at the time in your implication that few leftie commentators have critiqued it either.

    I found two pieces this morning (by accident) from John Harris and Zoe Williams, which attack it from a left-libertarian standpoint – but those are the only senior commentators I have seen thus far critiquing from the left.
  • isam said:

    There's another interesting polling paper out today – the Morning Consult survey of Shy Trumptons.

    Interestingly, it found Shy Trumptons on the margins in higher income groups and Shy Bidenites on the margins in lower income groups.

    https://morningconsult.com/form/shy-trump-2020/

    Re your post about left wingers with an alternative plan for dealing with Covid

    It seems like am authoritarian, left wing policy from Boris to me - that's why Starmer cant criticise it; all he can do is say he agrees, but would implement it more effectively

    There is nothing between Boris' Tories, Sir Keir's Labour, Sir Ed's Lib Dems and the Greens, Scot Nats and Welshies in the HofC when it comes to a vision to see us through Covid - can anyone point to any of them saying they would have done anything differently? Farage looks like being the only one to offer the significant minority/possible majority who disagree with the Westminster bubble a choice - again
    Farage is just a contrarian. When the Government was against lockdown he was in favour of it. Funny that.
  • isam said:

    There's another interesting polling paper out today – the Morning Consult survey of Shy Trumptons.

    Interestingly, it found Shy Trumptons on the margins in higher income groups and Shy Bidenites on the margins in lower income groups.

    https://morningconsult.com/form/shy-trump-2020/

    Re your post about left wingers with an alternative plan for dealing with Covid

    It seems like am authoritarian, left wing policy from Boris to me - that's why Starmer cant criticise it; all he can do is say he agrees., but would implement it more effectively

    There is nothing between Boris' Tories, Sir Keir's Labour, Sir Ed's Lib Dems and the Greens, Scot Nats and Welshies in the HofC when it comes to a vision to see us through Covid - can anyone point to any of them saying they would have done anything differently? Farage looks like being the only one to offer the significant minority/possible majority who disagree with the Westminster bubble a choice - again
    Maybe that's because - important details of implementation and competence aside - there's really nothing any government could do differently, which is why governments all around the world are doing much the same.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,329
    edited September 21

    There's another interesting polling paper out today – the Morning Consult survey of Shy Trumptons.

    Interestingly, it found Shy Trumptons on the margins in higher income groups and Shy Bidenites on the margins in lower income groups.

    https://morningconsult.com/form/shy-trump-2020/

    No surprise, if you live in Manhattan or Malibu you are going to be far more quiet about being a Trump supporter than if you live in West Virginia or Alabama and the reverse for Bidenites.

    Same here if you are rich and living in Oxford or Richmond Park you are likely to keep quiet about having voted for Brexit and Boris whereas if you live in Stoke or Grimsby you will proclaim your support for Brexit and Boris without question and vice versa
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 4,782
    Pulpstar said:

    One thing about the upsurge in cases, it should mean the Oxford trial phase 3 (placebo group we hope!) events are triggering off quicker than they otherwise might. A larger final events dataset would also be more statistically reliable.


    Quite so. One of the big problems the virologists have had is the very low level of community transmission, thus slowing down the trials.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,329
    edited September 21
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:
    Ooh, are we going to end up with a party that’s liberal and democratic?
    Davey is shifting to EEA and fiscal conservatism and targeting rich Tory Remainers and soft Brexiteers in the South and wealthy parts of London where most LD target seats are
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 4,782

    Pulpstar said:

    One thing about the upsurge in cases, it should mean the Oxford trial phase 3 (placebo group we hope!) events are triggering off quicker than they otherwise might. A larger final events dataset would also be more statistically reliable.

    Still likely to be absolutely tiny numbers, though.
    France looks good for a trial base – lots of cases there (even though death rates remain, thankfully, very low)
  • isamisam Posts: 34,038

    isam said:

    There's another interesting polling paper out today – the Morning Consult survey of Shy Trumptons.

    Interestingly, it found Shy Trumptons on the margins in higher income groups and Shy Bidenites on the margins in lower income groups.

    https://morningconsult.com/form/shy-trump-2020/

    Re your post about left wingers with an alternative plan for dealing with Covid

    It seems like am authoritarian, left wing policy from Boris to me - that's why Starmer cant criticise it; all he can do is say he agrees., but would implement it more effectively

    There is nothing between Boris' Tories, Sir Keir's Labour, Sir Ed's Lib Dems and the Greens, Scot Nats and Welshies in the HofC when it comes to a vision to see us through Covid - can anyone point to any of them saying they would have done anything differently? Farage looks like being the only one to offer the significant minority/possible majority who disagree with the Westminster bubble a choice - again
    Maybe that's because - important details of implementation and competence aside - there's really nothing any government could do differently, which is why governments all around the world are doing much the same.
    ...and people are dying of it all around the world!

    More of the same please
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,487
    edited September 21
  • Pulpstar said:

    One thing about the upsurge in cases, it should mean the Oxford trial phase 3 (placebo group we hope!) events are triggering off quicker than they otherwise might. A larger final events dataset would also be more statistically reliable.


    Quite so. One of the big problems the virologists have had is the very low level of community transmission, thus slowing down the trials.
    Aren't the trials happening in Brazil and elsewhere precisely for this reason?

    Seems unlikely the events dataset would be completed here before there ... Or are the datasets mixed together and not kept separate from each other?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,453

    Chinese cameras blacklisted by US being used in UK school toilets

    Surveillance cameras made by Hikvision, the Chinese company that has been implicated in grave human rights violations and has been blacklisted by the US government, are being used across the UK, from leisure centres in London to school toilets in west Norfolk.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/21/chinese-spy-tech-firm-linked-uighur-abuses-increases-uk-presence

    Why are there cameras in toilets in the first place?!
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 3,004
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:
    Ooh, are we going to end up with a party that’s liberal and democratic?
    After Ed Davey's siding with Sir Graham Brady yesterday, another clever move.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 4,782
    edited September 21
    Biden up 3pt in GA in today's GBAO poll, whatever that is, and for whatever it's worth.

    B 49

    T 46
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 462

    HYUFD said:

    twitter.com/Independent/status/1308035913042350080?s=20

    Who are the Lib Dems? I have never heard of them.
    Of course you haven´t, Mr Urquhart. You Conservatives are never up to date with anything.

    You had months of warning about the Corona virus, and you are still only just waking up to it. And you have had years to plan for Brexit, and you still don´t know what you are going to do about it.

    The Conservative Party is doomed. All they want to see is the destruction of our country and the selling off of the pieces to their wealthy crooked friends.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 78,329
    edited September 21
    HYUFD said:

    There's another interesting polling paper out today – the Morning Consult survey of Shy Trumptons.

    Interestingly, it found Shy Trumptons on the margins in higher income groups and Shy Bidenites on the margins in lower income groups.

    https://morningconsult.com/form/shy-trump-2020/

    No surprise, if you live in Manhattan or Malibu you are going to be far more quiet about being a Trump supporter than if you live in West Virginia or Alabama and the reverse for Bidenites.

    Same here if you are rich and living in Oxford or Richmond Park you are likely to keep quiet about having voted for Brexit and Boris whereas if you live in Stoke or Grimsby you will proclaim your support for Brexit and Boris without question and vice versa
    Interestingly Biden leads voters earning over $75k a year 58% to 42% by phone but Trump leads them by 52% to 48% online. There is only a 1% difference though for middle income voters with Biden narrowly leading them by phone or online. Amongst voters earning under $35k Biden leads comfortably both by phone or online though his share falls from 67% to 61% online.

    So it seems shy Trump backers are really found now amongst rich voters
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 4,782

    Pulpstar said:

    One thing about the upsurge in cases, it should mean the Oxford trial phase 3 (placebo group we hope!) events are triggering off quicker than they otherwise might. A larger final events dataset would also be more statistically reliable.


    Quite so. One of the big problems the virologists have had is the very low level of community transmission, thus slowing down the trials.
    Aren't the trials happening in Brazil and elsewhere precisely for this reason?

    Seems unlikely the events dataset would be completed here before there ... Or are the datasets mixed together and not kept separate from each other?
    I have no idea! :)
  • stodgestodge Posts: 7,479
    Sandpit said:


    Ooh, are we going to end up with a party that’s liberal and democratic?

    One of the problems on here is everyone seems to know what "liberal" and "democratic" mean - well, at least as far as they understand it.

    The problem is everyone's definition is different and if a party calling itself Liberal or Democratic doesn't met their interpretation, they go off on one and tell everyone said Party is neither Liberal nor Democratic.

    I don't think the Party which has a majority in the Commons is conservative - it calls itself Conservative but it's nearer to Liberal Unionism with bit of populism thrown in.

    Perhaps Sir Ed Davey should borrow the Populist bit and rename the LDs as the Liberal, Democratic and Popular Party. That will then give three things to which everyone can object.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,487
    edited September 21
    ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    twitter.com/Independent/status/1308035913042350080?s=20

    Who are the Lib Dems? I have never heard of them.
    Of course you haven´t, Mr Urquhart. You Conservatives are never up to date with anything.

    You had months of warning about the Corona virus, and you are still only just waking up to it. And you have had years to plan for Brexit, and you still don´t know what you are going to do about it.

    The Conservative Party is doomed. All they want to see is the destruction of our country and the selling off of the pieces to their wealthy crooked friends.
    You know I am not a Tory right....you might have missed me laying into how crap Boris is, all the mistakes the government have been making over their handling of COVID, etc.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 2,565
    Andy_JS said:

    "Sweden has exposed the cruel folly of lockdown
    Sweden’s strategy was subjected to a global smear campaign, but now it’s showing results.
    Fraser Myers"

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/09/21/sweden-has-exposed-the-cruel-folly-of-lockdown/

    Amusingly, Sweden's restrictions would probably fall under almost exactly the same definition of "local lockdown" that we're currently using.

    The amount of people, though, who seem to believe Sweden had no restrictions and minimal damage is almost scary. It's like it's a shibboleth where the actual details are all-but-irrelevant.

    The Swedish Model

    (As per Tegnell)

    - Find the minimum level of restrictions that will work for your country (all countries have different situations and requirements)
    - Apply those restrictions and hold them over the long term, not chopping and changing up and down.

    The downsides are:
    - As your R number is only just below 1, it'll take longer to subside. And thus you'll incur several times the number of deaths early on (and worse economic damage) than you would if you brought it down faster.
    (eg the difference between accepting an R number of 0.9 and an R number of 0.7 is a factor of 3 to 4 times as many deaths after 20 cycles).
    - You accept a higher level of restrictions than you need to later in the pandemic

    The upsides are:
    - Your population knows exactly what's expected at all times and has the consistency of direction that's been lacking over here.
    - You have fractionally more freedoms early on in the pandemic.

    That's it. There's no magic, no wand to wave.

    Personally, I'm coming to believe that a blended model would be best. Go in hard early on and reduce restrictions ONCE. I reckon a population could cope with that. Bring down the death rate early on with a lower R number (avoid that several-times-higher-than-necessary death rate and associated economic damage) AND benefit from consistency when you reduce the restrictions just once.

    I doubt that I'll see any articles covering this, though. They all seem focused on some fantasy-Sweden that fits what the writer wants to be true.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 17,396

    Biden up 3pt in GA in today's GBAO poll, whatever that is, and for whatever it's worth.

    B 49

    T 46

    For a laugh I've wonder about creating a fake polling company for punting out American polls and seeing if you can get them included in polling averages.

    Given the complete lack of anything you have to provide for an American poll I fear it seems strangely plausible.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 8,406
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:
    Ooh, are we going to end up with a party that’s liberal and democratic?
    Davey is shifting to EEA and fiscal conservatism and targeting rich Tory Remainers and soft Brexiteers in the South and wealthy parts of London where most LD target seats are
    The orange book lives!

    Given that I actually voted Lib Dem in the election rather than tory, Id be interested to see this direction of travel.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,135
    That settles it then. People really do swallow stories without any critical thinking these days.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 7,479
    Latest North Carolina poll has Biden fractionally ahead but basically a dead heat with only 1% undecided,

    https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/north-carolina-2020-biden-and-trump-in-dead-heat
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,487
    edited September 21
    Andy_JS said:

    Chinese cameras blacklisted by US being used in UK school toilets

    Surveillance cameras made by Hikvision, the Chinese company that has been implicated in grave human rights violations and has been blacklisted by the US government, are being used across the UK, from leisure centres in London to school toilets in west Norfolk.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/21/chinese-spy-tech-firm-linked-uighur-abuses-increases-uk-presence

    Why are there cameras in toilets in the first place?!
    Certainly an interesting question. I think I would be very uncomfortable if I was a parent and knew the toilets at my kids school had cameras.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 7,453
    Maybe. On the other hand he isn't that far off being 60 years old which until relatively recently was regarded as old.
  • RobD said:

    That settles it then. People really do swallow stories without any critical thinking these days.

    Sooooooo.....what was Tony Blair doing there then ;-)
  • Pulpstar said:

    One thing about the upsurge in cases, it should mean the Oxford trial phase 3 (placebo group we hope!) events are triggering off quicker than they otherwise might. A larger final events dataset would also be more statistically reliable.


    Quite so. One of the big problems the virologists have had is the very low level of community transmission, thus slowing down the trials.
    Aren't the trials happening in Brazil and elsewhere precisely for this reason?

    Seems unlikely the events dataset would be completed here before there ... Or are the datasets mixed together and not kept separate from each other?
    I have no idea! :)
    Refreshingly honest answer! 😁

    Hopefully someone else does have one.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,135

    RobD said:

    That settles it then. People really do swallow stories without any critical thinking these days.

    Sooooooo.....what was Tony Blair doing there then ;-)
    Shush.
  • Alistair said:

    Biden up 3pt in GA in today's GBAO poll, whatever that is, and for whatever it's worth.

    B 49

    T 46

    For a laugh I've wonder about creating a fake polling company for punting out American polls and seeing if you can get them included in polling averages.

    Given the complete lack of anything you have to provide for an American poll I fear it seems strangely plausible.
    Well something like that happened in the 2000 primaries.
  • ClippP said:

    HYUFD said:

    twitter.com/Independent/status/1308035913042350080?s=20

    Who are the Lib Dems? I have never heard of them.
    Of course you haven´t, Mr Urquhart. You Conservatives are never up to date with anything.

    You had months of warning about the Corona virus, and you are still only just waking up to it. And you have had years to plan for Brexit, and you still don´t know what you are going to do about it.

    The Conservative Party is doomed. All they want to see is the destruction of our country and the selling off of the pieces to their wealthy crooked friends.
    You know I am not a Tory right....you might have missed me laying into how crap Boris is, all the mistakes the government have been making over their handling of COVID, etc.
    To Clipp anyone who doesn't worship at the alter of STV and every utterance of the Lib Dems is a Tory.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,487
    edited September 21
    The cricket had it right. Interestingly the NFL and the players association wanted to do 7 months living in a similar bubble of hotels / training complexes and the owners veto'ed it in favour of daily testing.
  • RobD said:

    That settles it then. People really do swallow stories without any critical thinking these days.

    Yeah, like we hold all the cards in our negotiations with the EU.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    That settles it then. People really do swallow stories without any critical thinking these days.

    Sooooooo.....what was Tony Blair doing there then ;-)
    Shush.
    Quick get Carole Conspiracy on the case....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,066

    Pulpstar said:

    One thing about the upsurge in cases, it should mean the Oxford trial phase 3 (placebo group we hope!) events are triggering off quicker than they otherwise might. A larger final events dataset would also be more statistically reliable.

    Still likely to be absolutely tiny numbers, though.
    France looks good for a trial base – lots of cases there (even though death rates remain, thankfully, very low)
    You don't get into a p3 trial here unless you're a public facing worker where there'll be naturally higher infection rates (Bus drivers, police and so forth). I suppose they could have included big night out lovers amongst the criteria to be included, would probably have been frowned on though !
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 17,396

    Biden up 3pt in GA in today's GBAO poll, whatever that is, and for whatever it's worth.

    B 49

    T 46

    In GBAO's favour they present their results and tell yo how much they have shifted from their last poll rather than telling you how much larger the big number is than the small number so I instinctively like them
  • The cricket had it right. Interestingly the NFL and the players association wanted to do 7 months living in a similar bubble of hotels / training complexes and the owners veto'ed it in favour of daily testing.
    It has been a fear of mine for a while that these season's Champions League won't happen.

    Also that plan to host Euro 2020/21 across lots of European cities may also get nixed.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 3,532

    RobD said:

    That settles it then. People really do swallow stories without any critical thinking these days.

    Sooooooo.....what was Tony Blair doing there then ;-)
    Impersonating Boris Johnson
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 17,396
    edited September 21

    Alistair said:

    Biden up 3pt in GA in today's GBAO poll, whatever that is, and for whatever it's worth.

    B 49

    T 46

    For a laugh I've wonder about creating a fake polling company for punting out American polls and seeing if you can get them included in polling averages.

    Given the complete lack of anything you have to provide for an American poll I fear it seems strangely plausible.
    Well something like that happened in the 2000 primaries.
    I wouldn't be as incompetent as that mob though.

    Cutting edge AI would generate my random numbers.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,191
    RobD said:

    That settles it then. People really do swallow stories without any critical thinking these days.

    Who should be the most insulted for the confusion? Blair or Boris.

    I can't say I am not gutted that Bozza is innocent!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,135

    RobD said:

    That settles it then. People really do swallow stories without any critical thinking these days.

    Who should be the most insulted for the confusion? Blair or Boris.

    I can't say I am not gutted that Bozza is innocent!
    I suspect this wish for him to be found doing something wrong, for a "gotcha" moment, is part of the problem.
  • To confuse Boris with Tony, were the Italians deploying the same sort of AI that confuses / cuts out Barack Obama and replaces him with Mitch McConnell?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 17,396
    stodge said:

    Latest North Carolina poll has Biden fractionally ahead but basically a dead heat with only 1% undecided,

    https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/north-carolina-2020-biden-and-trump-in-dead-heat

    NC polling should get really interesting. With Early Voting happening for so long and so many ballot requests the polling figures should soon start having a significant percentage who have actually voted.

    The NC polls should get significantly more accurate closer to election 'day'
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 33,190
    Andy_JS said:

    "Sweden has exposed the cruel folly of lockdown
    Sweden’s strategy was subjected to a global smear campaign, but now it’s showing results.
    Fraser Myers"

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/09/21/sweden-has-exposed-the-cruel-folly-of-lockdown/

    The funny bit, of course, is that in opinion polls in Sweden, people wish the government had gone with the German approach.
  • RobD said:

    That settles it then. People really do swallow stories without any critical thinking these days.

    Tony Blair...Boris Johnson. Easy mistake to make.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 3,891
    Email from lovely people at National Savings saying rate dropping from 1.16% to 0.01% come November. No more Mr Nice Guy from Rishi.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 17,396
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    There's another interesting polling paper out today – the Morning Consult survey of Shy Trumptons.

    Interestingly, it found Shy Trumptons on the margins in higher income groups and Shy Bidenites on the margins in lower income groups.

    https://morningconsult.com/form/shy-trump-2020/

    No surprise, if you live in Manhattan or Malibu you are going to be far more quiet about being a Trump supporter than if you live in West Virginia or Alabama and the reverse for Bidenites.

    Same here if you are rich and living in Oxford or Richmond Park you are likely to keep quiet about having voted for Brexit and Boris whereas if you live in Stoke or Grimsby you will proclaim your support for Brexit and Boris without question and vice versa
    Interestingly Biden leads voters earning over $75k a year 58% to 42% by phone but Trump leads them by 52% to 48% online. There is only a 1% difference though for middle income voters with Biden narrowly leading them by phone or online. Amongst voters earning under $35k Biden leads comfortably both by phone or online though his share falls from 67% to 61% online.

    So it seems shy Trump backers are really found now amongst rich voters
    Which could be significant given historically they vote at a higher rate than the poor.

    It would be darkly hilarious of Biden gets big swings with the HS or less crowd but their turnout falls allowing the rich shy trumpets to swing the election.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 7,479
    HYUFD said:


    Davey is shifting to EEA and fiscal conservatism and targeting rich Tory Remainers and soft Brexiteers in the South and wealthy parts of London where most LD target seats are

    Perfectly sensible strategy as I see it. Go to where your actual and likely voters are - it's how successful parties operate.

    It's very different to see into the future - I don't know what's going to win the third race at Wolverhampton this evening and no one has come back from the year 2100 to confirm if Tottenham fell out of the Football League after relegation from League 2 - so trying to see the political landscape of May 2021 and the huge round of elections which will no doubt be called a "Mini General Election" by the indolent and the idiotic.

    If, as some on here seem to think, we will be fighting over the last tins of beans with 20 million unemployed, I could imagine there being a bit of a backlash against the Government. Even those who argue for 6 million unemployed seem unable to fathom out the politics of mass unemployment in the mid 2020s.

    There are two phases to this - there's the "The lot in charge are the best on offer but I'm going to give them a kicking for what they have done and are doing" which might work well for the LDs and BP if they stand but then there's the "I've had enough of this lot - the other lot sound reasonable, perhaps it's time to give them a go" which will be food news for Starmer.

    I suspect 2021 will see plenty of the former and the years after more of the latter.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 7,191
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    That settles it then. People really do swallow stories without any critical thinking these days.

    Who should be the most insulted for the confusion? Blair or Boris.

    I can't say I am not gutted that Bozza is innocent!
    I suspect this wish for him to be found doing something wrong, for a "gotcha" moment, is part of the problem.
    We have had plenty of genuine gotcha moments from Johnson. None of them cause him to break sweat.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,135

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    That settles it then. People really do swallow stories without any critical thinking these days.

    Who should be the most insulted for the confusion? Blair or Boris.

    I can't say I am not gutted that Bozza is innocent!
    I suspect this wish for him to be found doing something wrong, for a "gotcha" moment, is part of the problem.
    We have had plenty of genuine gotcha moments from Johnson. None of them cause him to break sweat.
    So that's an excuse to believe any story about him, regardless of how far-fetched it might seem?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 4,782
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One thing about the upsurge in cases, it should mean the Oxford trial phase 3 (placebo group we hope!) events are triggering off quicker than they otherwise might. A larger final events dataset would also be more statistically reliable.

    Still likely to be absolutely tiny numbers, though.
    France looks good for a trial base – lots of cases there (even though death rates remain, thankfully, very low)
    You don't get into a p3 trial here unless you're a public facing worker where there'll be naturally higher infection rates (Bus drivers, police and so forth). I suppose they could have included big night out lovers amongst the criteria to be included, would probably have been frowned on though !
    Geordie blondes would have been a particularly efficacious cohort
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 62,066
    edited September 21
    Alistair said:

    stodge said:

    Latest North Carolina poll has Biden fractionally ahead but basically a dead heat with only 1% undecided,

    https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/north-carolina-2020-biden-and-trump-in-dead-heat

    NC polling should get really interesting. With Early Voting happening for so long and so many ballot requests the polling figures should soon start having a significant percentage who have actually voted.

    The NC polls should get significantly more accurate closer to election 'day'
    The plurality of North Carolina voters (45%) say they plan to vote in person on election day, 35% say they will vote early in person, and 20% plan to vote by mail.

    This lot can't be correct, at least 1.8% - 2.6% of the electorate have already cast a mail-in ballot.

    Edit: The hard floor on ballots already in is 1.74%.
  • Despite the jibes there is nothing democratic about a majority elected government claiming a mandate for a policy that is front and centre in its manifesto. Unlikely as a LibDem victory would have been its absurd to claim that what people choose to vote for is undemocratic because they previous voted for something else.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 27,844

    The cricket had it right. Interestingly the NFL and the players association wanted to do 7 months living in a similar bubble of hotels / training complexes and the owners veto'ed it in favour of daily testing.
    It has been a fear of mine for a while that these season's Champions League won't happen.

    Also that plan to host Euro 2020/21 across lots of European cities may also get nixed.
    The CL should be fine, but they need it to be like Formula 1 have done - with lots of small travel and training bubbles, two or three tests a week - and absolutely no socialising for weeks on end, enforced by tournament security.

    They’ll need protocols in place for players who are driven mad and need to leave for a week or two, and accept the need to rotate the squad.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 25,065

    RobD said:

    That settles it then. People really do swallow stories without any critical thinking these days.

    Tony Blair...Boris Johnson. Easy mistake to make.
    If I was Harry Jameson I would be putting up my hourly rates.
  • RobD said:

    That settles it then. People really do swallow stories without any critical thinking these days.

    Tony Blair...Boris Johnson. Easy mistake to make.
    One's a lying charlatan* who trashed his reputation and that of his nation over a major policy disaster whilst the other is, I'm sorry I've completely lost my train of thought here.

    *I deserve to be flogged for that horrendous tautology.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,776
    Anecdote alert.
    Just been for a walk. Outside very middle class house, sprawling across a hedge a c12 foot home made banner yelling
    "YES TO INFORMAL CHILDCARE."
    I had no idea what that was, but it appears to be this.

    https://www.itv.com/news/tyne-tees/2020-09-19/north-east-leaders-appeal-to-government-to-amend-childcare-restrictions-in-new-covid-guidelines

    Never, ever seen a political banner in 15 years in this village before.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 2,498
    edited September 21

    Andy_JS said:

    "Sweden has exposed the cruel folly of lockdown
    Sweden’s strategy was subjected to a global smear campaign, but now it’s showing results.
    Fraser Myers"

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/09/21/sweden-has-exposed-the-cruel-folly-of-lockdown/

    Amusingly, Sweden's restrictions would probably fall under almost exactly the same definition of "local lockdown" that we're currently using.

    The amount of people, though, who seem to believe Sweden had no restrictions and minimal damage is almost scary. It's like it's a shibboleth where the actual details are all-but-irrelevant.

    The Swedish Model

    (As per Tegnell)

    - Find the minimum level of restrictions that will work for your country (all countries have different situations and requirements)
    - Apply those restrictions and hold them over the long term, not chopping and changing up and down.

    The downsides are:
    - As your R number is only just below 1, it'll take longer to subside. And thus you'll incur several times the number of deaths early on (and worse economic damage) than you would if you brought it down faster.
    (eg the difference between accepting an R number of 0.9 and an R number of 0.7 is a factor of 3 to 4 times as many deaths after 20 cycles).
    - You accept a higher level of restrictions than you need to later in the pandemic

    The upsides are:
    - Your population knows exactly what's expected at all times and has the consistency of direction that's been lacking over here.
    - You have fractionally more freedoms early on in the pandemic.

    That's it. There's no magic, no wand to wave.

    Personally, I'm coming to believe that a blended model would be best. Go in hard early on and reduce restrictions ONCE. I reckon a population could cope with that. Bring down the death rate early on with a lower R number (avoid that several-times-higher-than-necessary death rate and associated economic damage) AND benefit from consistency when you reduce the restrictions just once.

    I doubt that I'll see any articles covering this, though. They all seem focused on some fantasy-Sweden that fits what the writer wants to be true.
    Another excellent post - these really should be getting much more attention.

    There's also a problem of communication with the 'R' value. Perhaps better to put it in terms people can more easily understand: restrict your diet to 500 calories and your weight will drop quickly but unpleasantly, gorge on 4000 and you'll balloon, keep steady on 1500 or so without yo-yoing up and down and you'll lose weight consistently without starving, just like a Swedish Model...
This discussion has been closed.