Some journos catching on to what a bunch of mendacious sh1te that exponential graph whitty and vallance showed is. It is far from the experience of Spain and France.
So we're now supposed to think that the fact that Spain and France are having some success in keeping down the rate of re-infection by imposing stricter controls is evidence that Whitty and Vallance are shysters and that we don't need to impose stricter controls?
Err...
They are failing at keeping down the case rate. Failing completely. Cases have soared.
But there are comparatively few hospitalisations and deaths. The case to death relationship is completely different from the first wave.
Now that's partly due to increased testing, of course, but you have to query the numbers when France and Spain's deaths are not really moving up that much, even after a number of weeks.
The hospitalisations, and now the deaths, are moving up:
The numbers of deaths in France of people diagnosed with Covid-19 is trending upwards for the first time since the end of its lockdown, the public health agency said Friday, warning that all coronavirus indicators were now worsening.
While a recent surge of infections mostly affected the young, infections are also growing fast among the over-75s.
Admissions to hospital and intensive care wards are also increasing, the health agency added.
"For the first time since the lifting of the (March-May) lockdown, we are seeing an increase in Covid-19 deaths," the agency said in its weekly update, saying 265 people had died from the virus this week compared with 129 the last.
But of course both these countries are imposing stricter lockdowns and have been for a while, especially Spain. Those are the figures after taking action. Even if you think they are acceptable, they are not a reason not to take action, nor do they give you an indication of what would happen here if we do nothing.
So, and please correct me if I am wrong, using @Andy_JS 's excellent lily pad example if it takes 48 days to cover the pond then on exponential growth half of the pond was covered in 47 days. On geometric growth it would be at 24 days?
And if it took us 17 days to go from 2k to 4k cases a day in another 28 days we will be at 7.3k (2000 x28/17 +4) cases rather than 50K.
As I say, happy to be corrected.
As for your example, the geometric growth would be massively faster than the exponential growth during the first twenty or thirty days. If you were comparing the two you'd hardly see the exponential one moving since all the action occurs right at the end.
I agree with that and would again suggest that supports the growth in cases as being geometric to date. Numbers have come up from under a thousand to over 4k pretty quickly.
So, to put this to bed, does anyone have a link to some credible third party who definitely saw Johnson in the UK that weekend? Given the number of claimed engagements he had, there must be someone?
Unreliable source inform, that PM was spotted on dates in question with a group of Conservative Central Office volunteers on ROCKALL, engaged in collecting and weighing guano deposited by British sea-birds, compared to the droppings of birds of another feather, esp. fly-bys from the European continent and blow-ins from Republic of Ireland.
"Our brave, fabulous birds make astounding contributions every day - indeed each hour! - of astonishing breadth, depth and heft on behalf of global ecology and British sovereignty. Literally poop-by-poop their amazing patriotism and productivity have shown the world - when it comes to piling up shit, the name of that tune is still" Rule Britannia"!
Rumor are that the PM's advocacy and enthusiasm have been so persuasive, that Donald Trump is seriously considering Rockall as site for his newest luxury golf & birding complex. OR perhaps (if DT is re-elected) a high-level control and command center for top NATO and USDOD leadership.
That's a lot of money for some so-so franchises: Dishonered probably won't have a third outing (I loved the first, but was bored silly by the second), Wolfenstein is OK, Elder Scrolls is good (but Witcher is better in that space), and Fallout is somewhat damaged property after their MMORPG issues.
As @MaxPB says, this is all about Microsoft trying to own the subscription space. I'd also argue that they are trying to ensure that there are a maximum number of exclusives for Xbox over PS5.
So, and please correct me if I am wrong, using @Andy_JS 's excellent lily pad example if it takes 48 days to cover the pond then on exponential growth half of the pond was covered in 47 days. On geometric growth it would be at 24 days?
And if it took us 17 days to go from 2k to 4k cases a day in another 28 days we will be at 7.3k (2000 x28/17 +4) cases rather than 50K.
As I say, happy to be corrected.
As for your example, the geometric growth would be massively faster than the exponential growth during the first twenty or thirty days. If you were comparing the two you'd hardly see the exponential one moving since all the action occurs right at the end.
Aren't exponential growth and geometric growth just different words for the same thing? As I understand it, they both describe growth whose rate is proportional to the current magnitude of a quantity. Linear, quadratic, cubic, etc. growth are faster at first, but don't accelerate as rapidly as exponential/geometric growth.
So, and please correct me if I am wrong, using @Andy_JS 's excellent lily pad example if it takes 48 days to cover the pond then on exponential growth half of the pond was covered in 47 days. On geometric growth it would be at 24 days?
And if it took us 17 days to go from 2k to 4k cases a day in another 28 days we will be at 7.3k (2000 x28/17 +4) cases rather than 50K.
As I say, happy to be corrected.
With all the issues around testing and case numbers, I'm personally going off of hospitalisation numbers. It's rather lagged in comparison, but we're not arguing about test capacity, who should be getting them, are there false positives, or whatever.
And, at the end of the day, that's what we should be worrying about.
I want back and looked at the doubling period for the seven-day-smoothed average.
From the past 10 days of figures (9th to 18th of September), how long had it taken for the seven-day average to double?
9th September: 14 days (double what it was on the 26th of August) 10th September: 12 days (double what it was on the 29th of August) 11th September: 9 days (double what it was on the 2nd of September) 12th September: 8 days 13th September; 8 days 14th September: 8 days 15th September: 8 days 16th September: 8.5 days 17th September: 8.5 days 18th September: 9 days.
I'm hoping the acceleration has stabilised and maybe even dropped, but it's still looking more exponential than geometrical. Although I think the doubling period is a day or two longer than Whitty and co said (but they're explaining a worst-case scenario they want to avoid).
I'd like to see that doubling period extend a bit more - essentially, we may have dropped from an exponential growth rate of +9% per day to +8% per day after climbing there from +5% per day when it started rising again.
The problem is that we are now hitting the limits of testing - so the case numbers are going to be effected by that.
There is now a significant possibility of an Electoral college tie Larry Sabato says, 269 for Biden and 269 for Trump if Trump wins the 4 current toss up states, Arizona, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Florida,
The Senate is also forecast to be 49 Democrats and 49 Republicans with 2 toss ups
So, and please correct me if I am wrong, using @Andy_JS 's excellent lily pad example if it takes 48 days to cover the pond then on exponential growth half of the pond was covered in 47 days. On geometric growth it would be at 24 days?
And if it took us 17 days to go from 2k to 4k cases a day in another 28 days we will be at 7.3k (2000 x28/17 +4) cases rather than 50K.
As I say, happy to be corrected.
As for your example, the geometric growth would be massively faster than the exponential growth during the first twenty or thirty days. If you were comparing the two you'd hardly see the exponential one moving since all the action occurs right at the end.
I agree with that and would again suggest that supports the growth in cases as being geometric to date. Numbers have come up from under a thousand to over 4k pretty quickly.
I don't think it is evidence against either model, actually. The rate on hospital admissions does suggest that it is growing more exponentially than geometrically, however.
So, and please correct me if I am wrong, using @Andy_JS 's excellent lily pad example if it takes 48 days to cover the pond then on exponential growth half of the pond was covered in 47 days. On geometric growth it would be at 24 days?
And if it took us 17 days to go from 2k to 4k cases a day in another 28 days we will be at 7.3k (2000 x28/17 +4) cases rather than 50K.
As I say, happy to be corrected.
As for your example, the geometric growth would be massively faster than the exponential growth during the first twenty or thirty days. If you were comparing the two you'd hardly see the exponential one moving since all the action occurs right at the end.
I agree with that and would again suggest that supports the growth in cases as being geometric to date. Numbers have come up from under a thousand to over 4k pretty quickly.
I don't think it is evidence against either model, actually. The rate on hospital admissions does suggest that it is growing more exponentially than geometrically, however.
I think you mean linearly rather than geometrically.
So we're now supposed to think that the fact that Spain and France are having some success in keeping down the rate of re-infection by imposing stricter controls is evidence that Whitty and Vallance are shysters and that we don't need to impose stricter controls?
Err...
They are failing at keeping down the case rate. Failing completely. Cases have soared.
But there are comparatively few hospitalisations and deaths. The case to death relationship is completely different from the first wave.
Now that's partly due to increased testing, of course, but you have to query the numbers when France and Spain's deaths are not really moving up that much, even after a number of weeks.
The hospitalisations, and now the deaths, are moving up:
The numbers of deaths in France of people diagnosed with Covid-19 is trending upwards for the first time since the end of its lockdown, the public health agency said Friday, warning that all coronavirus indicators were now worsening.
While a recent surge of infections mostly affected the young, infections are also growing fast among the over-75s.
Admissions to hospital and intensive care wards are also increasing, the health agency added.
"For the first time since the lifting of the (March-May) lockdown, we are seeing an increase in Covid-19 deaths," the agency said in its weekly update, saying 265 people had died from the virus this week compared with 129 the last.
But of course both these countries are imposing stricter lockdowns and have been for a while, especially Spain. Those are the figures after taking action. Even if you think they are acceptable, they are not a reason not to take action, nor do they give you an indication of what would happen here if we do nothing.
This really isn't hard to understand.
Or its the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy, which goes along the lines of, in order for you to be convinced our measures first time around worked, there has to be a big reaction when they are removed. Otherwise you'll be complaining about all those extra cancer deaths and suicides our measures caused, not to mention the mass uneployment.
So, and please correct me if I am wrong, using @Andy_JS 's excellent lily pad example if it takes 48 days to cover the pond then on exponential growth half of the pond was covered in 47 days. On geometric growth it would be at 24 days?
And if it took us 17 days to go from 2k to 4k cases a day in another 28 days we will be at 7.3k (2000 x28/17 +4) cases rather than 50K.
As I say, happy to be corrected.
As for your example, the geometric growth would be massively faster than the exponential growth during the first twenty or thirty days. If you were comparing the two you'd hardly see the exponential one moving since all the action occurs right at the end.
I agree with that and would again suggest that supports the growth in cases as being geometric to date. Numbers have come up from under a thousand to over 4k pretty quickly.
I don't think it is evidence against either model, actually. The rate on hospital admissions does suggest that it is growing more exponentially than geometrically, however.
Well, would you agree with me that in terms of numbers of cases per day neither Spain nor France have so far had exponential growth and there is no evidence that we have either over anything other than very short periods?
Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that there is not a problem here, there clearly is. The number of infections per day is clearly on an upward trend as is the number of hospital admissions. Both are sources of concern. Both justify further action because what we are doing right now and for the last month isn't working. I just think that the prognosis is being materially misrepresented.
So, and please correct me if I am wrong, using @Andy_JS 's excellent lily pad example if it takes 48 days to cover the pond then on exponential growth half of the pond was covered in 47 days. On geometric growth it would be at 24 days?
And if it took us 17 days to go from 2k to 4k cases a day in another 28 days we will be at 7.3k (2000 x28/17 +4) cases rather than 50K.
As I say, happy to be corrected.
With all the issues around testing and case numbers, I'm personally going off of hospitalisation numbers. It's rather lagged in comparison, but we're not arguing about test capacity, who should be getting them, are there false positives, or whatever.
And, at the end of the day, that's what we should be worrying about.
I want back and looked at the doubling period for the seven-day-smoothed average.
From the past 10 days of figures (9th to 18th of September), how long had it taken for the seven-day average to double?
9th September: 14 days (double what it was on the 26th of August) 10th September: 12 days (double what it was on the 29th of August) 11th September: 9 days (double what it was on the 2nd of September) 12th September: 8 days 13th September; 8 days 14th September: 8 days 15th September: 8 days 16th September: 8.5 days 17th September: 8.5 days 18th September: 9 days.
I'm hoping the acceleration has stabilised and maybe even dropped, but it's still looking more exponential than geometrical. Although I think the doubling period is a day or two longer than Whitty and co said (but they're explaining a worst-case scenario they want to avoid).
I'd like to see that doubling period extend a bit more - essentially, we may have dropped from an exponential growth rate of +9% per day to +8% per day after climbing there from +5% per day when it started rising again.
The problem is that we are now hitting the limits of testing - so the case numbers are going to be effected by that.
But if there is exponential growth then the percentage of positive results from testing should increase (it should increase from geometric increases as well but more slowly).
That's a lot of money for some so-so franchises: Dishonered probably won't have a third outing (I loved the first, but was bored silly by the second), Wolfenstein is OK, Elder Scrolls is good (but Witcher is better in that space), and Fallout is somewhat damaged property after their MMORPG issues.
As @MaxPB says, this is all about Microsoft trying to own the subscription space. I'd also argue that they are trying to ensure that there are a maximum number of exclusives for Xbox over PS5.
Doom is a good get for them.
I don't think it's about exclusives at all, at least not the major franchises. It makes no sense to spend $7.5bn on a company and then cut off the 40% of revenue that is derived from PS4 (and that will be higher for PS5).
The way I see it going - all Bethesda games go onto Gamepass from day one and they launch on PS5 and Steam to buy maybe two or four weeks later at full price. That gives Xbox a short exclusivity window, but doesn't cut off significant cross-platform revenue. In a few years I seriously see Xbox hardware ceasing to exist as a going concern for MS and they just go all in with Xcloud and they get Sony offer it on PS5 once they are out of the console hardware space.
So, and please correct me if I am wrong, using @Andy_JS 's excellent lily pad example if it takes 48 days to cover the pond then on exponential growth half of the pond was covered in 47 days. On geometric growth it would be at 24 days?
And if it took us 17 days to go from 2k to 4k cases a day in another 28 days we will be at 7.3k (2000 x28/17 +4) cases rather than 50K.
As I say, happy to be corrected.
With all the issues around testing and case numbers, I'm personally going off of hospitalisation numbers. It's rather lagged in comparison, but we're not arguing about test capacity, who should be getting them, are there false positives, or whatever.
And, at the end of the day, that's what we should be worrying about.
I want back and looked at the doubling period for the seven-day-smoothed average.
From the past 10 days of figures (9th to 18th of September), how long had it taken for the seven-day average to double?
9th September: 14 days (double what it was on the 26th of August) 10th September: 12 days (double what it was on the 29th of August) 11th September: 9 days (double what it was on the 2nd of September) 12th September: 8 days 13th September; 8 days 14th September: 8 days 15th September: 8 days 16th September: 8.5 days 17th September: 8.5 days 18th September: 9 days.
I'm hoping the acceleration has stabilised and maybe even dropped, but it's still looking more exponential than geometrical. Although I think the doubling period is a day or two longer than Whitty and co said (but they're explaining a worst-case scenario they want to avoid).
I'd like to see that doubling period extend a bit more - essentially, we may have dropped from an exponential growth rate of +9% per day to +8% per day after climbing there from +5% per day when it started rising again.
The problem is that we are now hitting the limits of testing - so the case numbers are going to be effected by that.
But if there is exponential growth then the percentage of positive results from testing should increase (it should increase from geometric increases as well but more slowly).
The only way to tell for sure is the ONS infection survey. Next out on Friday. That may allow us too calibrate to the new situation.
And if the Joint Cttee wasn't making sufficient progress, why did the govt. rule out an extension of the transition period?
May might be right. However she twice bungled things which risked great peril. I'm interested in what she has to say, but any lectures she may wish to deliver will fall on very cold ears.
Interesting to note as Boris was baptised Catholic if Biden becomes US President it will be the first time we have had baptised Roman Catholics as both UK PM and US President in what are traditionally Protestant nations, I am sure the Vatican would take note, though Ian Paisley may be turning in his grave
So, and please correct me if I am wrong, using @Andy_JS 's excellent lily pad example if it takes 48 days to cover the pond then on exponential growth half of the pond was covered in 47 days. On geometric growth it would be at 24 days?
And if it took us 17 days to go from 2k to 4k cases a day in another 28 days we will be at 7.3k (2000 x28/17 +4) cases rather than 50K.
As I say, happy to be corrected.
With all the issues around testing and case numbers, I'm personally going off of hospitalisation numbers. It's rather lagged in comparison, but we're not arguing about test capacity, who should be getting them, are there false positives, or whatever.
And, at the end of the day, that's what we should be worrying about.
I want back and looked at the doubling period for the seven-day-smoothed average.
From the past 10 days of figures (9th to 18th of September), how long had it taken for the seven-day average to double?
9th September: 14 days (double what it was on the 26th of August) 10th September: 12 days (double what it was on the 29th of August) 11th September: 9 days (double what it was on the 2nd of September) 12th September: 8 days 13th September; 8 days 14th September: 8 days 15th September: 8 days 16th September: 8.5 days 17th September: 8.5 days 18th September: 9 days.
I'm hoping the acceleration has stabilised and maybe even dropped, but it's still looking more exponential than geometrical. Although I think the doubling period is a day or two longer than Whitty and co said (but they're explaining a worst-case scenario they want to avoid).
I'd like to see that doubling period extend a bit more - essentially, we may have dropped from an exponential growth rate of +9% per day to +8% per day after climbing there from +5% per day when it started rising again.
The problem is that we are now hitting the limits of testing - so the case numbers are going to be effected by that.
But if there is exponential growth then the percentage of positive results from testing should increase (it should increase from geometric increases as well but more slowly).
I would think that we will know more when the next 50K of testing capacity (next lab) kicks in.
Interesting to note as Boris was baptised Catholic if Biden becomes US President it will be the first time we have had baptised Roman Catholics as both UK PM and US President in what are traditionally Protestant nations, I am sure the Vatican would take note, though Ian Paisley may be turning in his grave
Or its the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy, which goes along the lines of, in order for you to be convinced our measures first time around worked, there has to be a big reaction when they are removed. Otherwise you'll be complaining about all those extra cancer deaths and suicides our measures caused, not to mention the mass uneployment.
Those 'extra cancer deaths and suicides' haven't appeared in the excess deaths figures yet. It is possible, indeed probable, that they will eventually. No-one has ever denied that, nor is there a living soul who has denied that the economic effects of lockdown are dire (although they might not be more dire than letting rip, it's hard to say).
What you don't seem to be able to understand is that this a difficult set of trade-offs, and there are no magic bullets that will somehow make the problems go away. Whitty, Vallance etc completely understand that, and repeatedly make it clear that they understand it.
Much to Labour's delight, she could never get enough Labour support for her WA as PM but now she is rebelling to preserve it in full Labour cannot wait to get behind her
Interesting to note as Boris was baptised Catholic if Biden becomes US President it will be the first time we have had baptised Roman Catholics as both UK PM and US President in what are traditionally Protestant nations, I am sure the Vatican would take note, though Ian Paisley may be turning in his grave
That may explain his attitude towards contraception.
He's CoE, according to wiki:
Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England,[40] but has stated that "his faith comes and goes"[553] and that he is not a serious practising Christian.
Interesting to note as Boris was baptised Catholic if Biden becomes US President it will be the first time we have had baptised Roman Catholics as both UK PM and US President in what are traditionally Protestant nations, I am sure the Vatican would take note, though Ian Paisley may be turning in his grave
That may explain his attitude towards contraception.
He's CoE, according to wiki:
Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England,[40] but has stated that "his faith comes and goes"[553] and that he is not a serious practising Christian.
In Catholic doctrine if you are baptised Catholic you are Catholic until death, even if a lapsed one or you become a member of the Church of England
So, to put this to bed, does anyone have a link to some credible third party who definitely saw Johnson in the UK that weekend? Given the number of claimed engagements he had, there must be someone?
Haven't been following it that closely but I gather he popped over to Italy. Little holiday.
I suppose this indicates the government taking Covid measures seriously for the first time since the status went to 3.5.
Or it's the scientists reviving the long forgotten (and ridiculed from the start) 'alert system' to bounce Johnson into action he doesn't really want to take.
Much to Labour's delight, she could never get enough Labour support for her WA as PM but now she is rebelling to preserve it in full Labour cannot wait to get behind her
Interesting to note as Boris was baptised Catholic if Biden becomes US President it will be the first time we have had baptised Roman Catholics as both UK PM and US President in what are traditionally Protestant nations, I am sure the Vatican would take note, though Ian Paisley may be turning in his grave
That may explain his attitude towards contraception.
He's CoE, according to wiki:
Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England,[40] but has stated that "his faith comes and goes"[553] and that he is not a serious practising Christian.
In Catholic doctrine if you are born Catholic you are Catholic until death, even if a lapsed one or a member of the Church of England
Yeah, but that doesn't stop you baptising your children at an anglican church.
So, to put this to bed, does anyone have a link to some credible third party who definitely saw Johnson in the UK that weekend? Given the number of claimed engagements he had, there must be someone?
Haven't been following it that closely but I gather he popped over to Italy. Little holiday.
Much to Labour's delight, she could never get enough Labour support for her WA as PM but now she is rebelling to preserve it in full Labour cannot wait to get behind her
Interesting to note as Boris was baptised Catholic if Biden becomes US President it will be the first time we have had baptised Roman Catholics as both UK PM and US President in what are traditionally Protestant nations, I am sure the Vatican would take note, though Ian Paisley may be turning in his grave
That may explain his attitude towards contraception.
He's CoE, according to wiki:
Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England,[40] but has stated that "his faith comes and goes"[553] and that he is not a serious practising Christian.
In Catholic doctrine if you are baptised Catholic you are Catholic until death, even if a lapsed one or you become a member of the Church of England
Clearly vital that we establish credentials for irrational beliefs. The world burns but if you don't say the right things when you lick a toad then that's far worse.
So, to put this to bed, does anyone have a link to some credible third party who definitely saw Johnson in the UK that weekend? Given the number of claimed engagements he had, there must be someone?
Haven't been following it that closely but I gather he popped over to Italy. Little holiday.
Interesting to note as Boris was baptised Catholic if Biden becomes US President it will be the first time we have had baptised Roman Catholics as both UK PM and US President in what are traditionally Protestant nations, I am sure the Vatican would take note, though Ian Paisley may be turning in his grave
That may explain his attitude towards contraception.
He's CoE, according to wiki:
Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England,[40] but has stated that "his faith comes and goes"[553] and that he is not a serious practising Christian.
In Catholic doctrine if you are baptised Catholic you are Catholic until death, even if a lapsed one or you become a member of the Church of England
True, although in my case I would like to make it clear that at a few days old I didn't give informed consent.
So, and please correct me if I am wrong, using @Andy_JS 's excellent lily pad example if it takes 48 days to cover the pond then on exponential growth half of the pond was covered in 47 days. On geometric growth it would be at 24 days?
And if it took us 17 days to go from 2k to 4k cases a day in another 28 days we will be at 7.3k (2000 x28/17 +4) cases rather than 50K.
As I say, happy to be corrected.
As for your example, the geometric growth would be massively faster than the exponential growth during the first twenty or thirty days. If you were comparing the two you'd hardly see the exponential one moving since all the action occurs right at the end.
Aren't exponential growth and geometric growth just different words for the same thing? As I understand it, they both describe growth whose rate is proportional to the current magnitude of a quantity. Linear, quadratic, cubic, etc. growth are faster at first, but don't accelerate as rapidly as exponential/geometric growth.
Geometric progression is the same as exponential growth for discrete time steps.
That's a lot of money for some so-so franchises: Dishonered probably won't have a third outing (I loved the first, but was bored silly by the second), Wolfenstein is OK, Elder Scrolls is good (but Witcher is better in that space), and Fallout is somewhat damaged property after their MMORPG issues.
As @MaxPB says, this is all about Microsoft trying to own the subscription space. I'd also argue that they are trying to ensure that there are a maximum number of exclusives for Xbox over PS5.
Elder Scrolls has a big big name, so does Fallout, even with some misteps, and the newer Id software games seem to have gone down very well for the most part. Personally I love all the Dishonored games, even Death of the Outsider, but that is probably it's end so it is the odd one out. But arguments over quality aside, it looks like a smart investment as the various companies make some pretty well selling titles.
3,105 new cases on 15th September should give new 6,210 cases on 22nd September.
Today, the 21st, new cases were 4,368.
We can look forward to checking the government's 'prediction' tomorrow.
In 9 days time we should be over 8,700 cases. My guess is it will be more like 6k (which is bad enough).
The scientists supported the "rule of six" as a measure to reduce rate of increase of case numbers. Early indications seem to be that it may be having an effect (and possibly earlier than could have originally been predicted) This is being ignored.
So, and please correct me if I am wrong, using @Andy_JS 's excellent lily pad example if it takes 48 days to cover the pond then on exponential growth half of the pond was covered in 47 days. On geometric growth it would be at 24 days?
And if it took us 17 days to go from 2k to 4k cases a day in another 28 days we will be at 7.3k (2000 x28/17 +4) cases rather than 50K.
As I say, happy to be corrected.
As for your example, the geometric growth would be massively faster than the exponential growth during the first twenty or thirty days. If you were comparing the two you'd hardly see the exponential one moving since all the action occurs right at the end.
Aren't exponential growth and geometric growth just different words for the same thing? As I understand it, they both describe growth whose rate is proportional to the current magnitude of a quantity. Linear, quadratic, cubic, etc. growth are faster at first, but don't accelerate as rapidly as exponential/geometric growth.
Geometric progression is the same as exponential growth for discrete time steps.
Ah, I had thought they meant it was growing at the same rate (i.e. 1->2, 2->3, 3->4 and so on). Hence the lily pad example where it was half covered in half the time.
So, and please correct me if I am wrong, using @Andy_JS 's excellent lily pad example if it takes 48 days to cover the pond then on exponential growth half of the pond was covered in 47 days. On geometric growth it would be at 24 days?
And if it took us 17 days to go from 2k to 4k cases a day in another 28 days we will be at 7.3k (2000 x28/17 +4) cases rather than 50K.
As I say, happy to be corrected.
As for your example, the geometric growth would be massively faster than the exponential growth during the first twenty or thirty days. If you were comparing the two you'd hardly see the exponential one moving since all the action occurs right at the end.
I agree with that and would again suggest that supports the growth in cases as being geometric to date. Numbers have come up from under a thousand to over 4k pretty quickly.
I don't think it is evidence against either model, actually. The rate on hospital admissions does suggest that it is growing more exponentially than geometrically, however.
I think you mean linearly rather than geometrically.
In fairness, that is probably my fault. When I used geometrically I actually meant linearly.
Interesting to note as Boris was baptised Catholic if Biden becomes US President it will be the first time we have had baptised Roman Catholics as both UK PM and US President in what are traditionally Protestant nations, I am sure the Vatican would take note, though Ian Paisley may be turning in his grave
That may explain his attitude towards contraception.
He's CoE, according to wiki:
Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England,[40] but has stated that "his faith comes and goes"[553] and that he is not a serious practising Christian.
The cynic in me suggests that this is something to with future schooling arrangements for Johnson Junior.
So, and please correct me if I am wrong, using @Andy_JS 's excellent lily pad example if it takes 48 days to cover the pond then on exponential growth half of the pond was covered in 47 days. On geometric growth it would be at 24 days?
And if it took us 17 days to go from 2k to 4k cases a day in another 28 days we will be at 7.3k (2000 x28/17 +4) cases rather than 50K.
As I say, happy to be corrected.
As for your example, the geometric growth would be massively faster than the exponential growth during the first twenty or thirty days. If you were comparing the two you'd hardly see the exponential one moving since all the action occurs right at the end.
Aren't exponential growth and geometric growth just different words for the same thing? As I understand it, they both describe growth whose rate is proportional to the current magnitude of a quantity. Linear, quadratic, cubic, etc. growth are faster at first, but don't accelerate as rapidly as exponential/geometric growth.
Geometric progression is the same as exponential growth for discrete time steps.
Ah, I had thought they meant it was growing at the same rate (i.e. 1->2, 2->3, 3->4 and so on). Hence the lily pad example where it was half covered in half the time.
That is linear. But the discussion here is more intertwined that the ivy I've spent the afternoon lifting off our wall.
Very glad that Theresa May is now a backbencher and not a PM, good riddance to someone so weak at dealing with Europe. They walked all over her and she's not gotten any better since.
Or its the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy, which goes along the lines of, in order for you to be convinced our measures first time around worked, there has to be a big reaction when they are removed. Otherwise you'll be complaining about all those extra cancer deaths and suicides our measures caused, not to mention the mass uneployment.
Those 'extra cancer deaths and suicides' haven't appeared in the excess deaths figures yet. It is possible, indeed probable, that they will eventually. No-one has ever denied that, nor is there a living soul who has denied that the economic effects of lockdown are dire (although they might not be more dire than letting rip, it's hard to say).
What you don't seem to be able to understand is that this a difficult set of trade-offs, and there are no magic bullets that will somehow make the problems go away. Whitty, Vallance etc completely understand that, and repeatedly make it clear that they understand it.
I think there is significant evidence that the trade offs being served up to us are and hgave been manifestly false. Ferguson's half a million. That absurd table today from Whitty and Vallance.
Very glad that Theresa May is now a backbencher and not a PM, good riddance to someone so weak at dealing with Europe. They walked all over her and she's not gotten any better since.
She negotiated away much of the cliff edge that is now confronting Boris Johnson.
Very glad that Theresa May is now a backbencher and not a PM, good riddance to someone so weak at dealing with Europe. They walked all over her and she's not gotten any better since.
She'll probably be remembered as one of the worst PMs ever. Woefully unfair when you know the ups and downs of her years, but a damning certainty when you don't make those allowances.
A slight degree of competency on her part could well have seen us saying she was the best PM ever. An astonishing falling short.
Interesting to note as Boris was baptised Catholic if Biden becomes US President it will be the first time we have had baptised Roman Catholics as both UK PM and US President in what are traditionally Protestant nations, I am sure the Vatican would take note, though Ian Paisley may be turning in his grave
That may explain his attitude towards contraception.
He's CoE, according to wiki:
Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England,[40] but has stated that "his faith comes and goes"[553] and that he is not a serious practising Christian.
Interesting to note as Boris was baptised Catholic if Biden becomes US President it will be the first time we have had baptised Roman Catholics as both UK PM and US President in what are traditionally Protestant nations, I am sure the Vatican would take note, though Ian Paisley may be turning in his grave
That may explain his attitude towards contraception.
He's CoE, according to wiki:
Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England,[40] but has stated that "his faith comes and goes"[553] and that he is not a serious practising Christian.
In Catholic doctrine if you are born Catholic you are Catholic until death, even if a lapsed one or a member of the Church of England
Yeah, but that doesn't stop you baptising your children at an anglican church.
Edit: got my cathedrals and abbeys confused!
Though it looks like Boris baptised his son a Catholic at Westminster Cathedral not the Anglican Westminster Abbey
Interesting to note as Boris was baptised Catholic if Biden becomes US President it will be the first time we have had baptised Roman Catholics as both UK PM and US President in what are traditionally Protestant nations, I am sure the Vatican would take note, though Ian Paisley may be turning in his grave
That may explain his attitude towards contraception.
He's CoE, according to wiki:
Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England,[40] but has stated that "his faith comes and goes"[553] and that he is not a serious practising Christian.
The cynic in me suggests that this is something to with future schooling arrangements for Johnson Junior.
Interesting to note as Boris was baptised Catholic if Biden becomes US President it will be the first time we have had baptised Roman Catholics as both UK PM and US President in what are traditionally Protestant nations, I am sure the Vatican would take note, though Ian Paisley may be turning in his grave
That may explain his attitude towards contraception.
He's CoE, according to wiki:
Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England,[40] but has stated that "his faith comes and goes"[553] and that he is not a serious practising Christian.
The cynic in me suggests that this is something to with future schooling arrangements for Johnson Junior.
Very glad that Theresa May is now a backbencher and not a PM, good riddance to someone so weak at dealing with Europe. They walked all over her and she's not gotten any better since.
She'll probably be remembered as one of the worst PMs ever. Woefully unfair when you know the ups and downs of her years, but a damning certainty when you don't make those allowances.
A slight degree of competency on her part could well have seen us saying she was the best PM ever. An astonishing falling short.
No, she'll be seen as what she was: a moderately poor PM with a good sense of duty, who tried to square the Brexit circle, but who screwed up an election and as a result found herself in an utterly impossible position for which she was temperamentally ill-suited.
Did it a while back when Boris Johnson introduced the Internal Market Bill and we were headed for No Deal.
Fortunately my father's a lifelong hoarder, so I reckon we can go around a year without struggling.
I am still opening cupboards and finding bog roll Mrs U bought from Costco by the 1000, because it was on some super offer or something ages ago.
A few years ago there was a show called 'Doomsday Preppers' about people who prepare for various types of doomsday scenario, some of them hoarded as much stock as a supermarket warehouse for the inevitable apocalypse.
It was like watching a documentary about my father, my mother and myself used to take the piss out of him for years, he's been unbelievably smug since lockdown was introduced.
Interesting to note as Boris was baptised Catholic if Biden becomes US President it will be the first time we have had baptised Roman Catholics as both UK PM and US President in what are traditionally Protestant nations, I am sure the Vatican would take note, though Ian Paisley may be turning in his grave
That may explain his attitude towards contraception.
He's CoE, according to wiki:
Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England,[40] but has stated that "his faith comes and goes"[553] and that he is not a serious practising Christian.
In Catholic doctrine if you are baptised Catholic you are Catholic until death, even if a lapsed one or you become a member of the Church of England
True, although in my case I would like to make it clear that at a few days old I didn't give informed consent.
Comments
The numbers of deaths in France of people diagnosed with Covid-19 is trending upwards for the first time since the end of its lockdown, the public health agency said Friday, warning that all coronavirus indicators were now worsening.
While a recent surge of infections mostly affected the young, infections are also growing fast among the over-75s.
Admissions to hospital and intensive care wards are also increasing, the health agency added.
"For the first time since the lifting of the (March-May) lockdown, we are seeing an increase in Covid-19 deaths," the agency said in its weekly update, saying 265 people had died from the virus this week compared with 129 the last.
https://www.thelocal.fr/20200918/covid-19-deaths-in-france-rise-for-the-first-time-since-lockdown
Also in Spain:
https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-09-17/spain-reports-239-new-coronavirus-deaths-the-highest-figure-so-far-during-the-second-wave-of-the-epidemic.html
But of course both these countries are imposing stricter lockdowns and have been for a while, especially Spain. Those are the figures after taking action. Even if you think they are acceptable, they are not a reason not to take action, nor do they give you an indication of what would happen here if we do nothing.
This really isn't hard to understand.
"Our brave, fabulous birds make astounding contributions every day - indeed each hour! - of astonishing breadth, depth and heft on behalf of global ecology and British sovereignty. Literally poop-by-poop their amazing patriotism and productivity have shown the world - when it comes to piling up shit, the name of that tune is still" Rule Britannia"!
Rumor are that the PM's advocacy and enthusiasm have been so persuasive, that Donald Trump is seriously considering Rockall as site for his newest luxury golf & birding complex. OR perhaps (if DT is re-elected) a high-level control and command center for top NATO and USDOD leadership.
As @MaxPB says, this is all about Microsoft trying to own the subscription space. I'd also argue that they are trying to ensure that there are a maximum number of exclusives for Xbox over PS5.
The Senate is also forecast to be 49 Democrats and 49 Republicans with 2 toss ups
https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1308076423152906240?s=20
https://twitter.com/stevennelson10/status/1307984849521831937
And if the Joint Cttee wasn't making sufficient progress, why did the govt. rule out an extension of the transition period?
Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that there is not a problem here, there clearly is. The number of infections per day is clearly on an upward trend as is the number of hospital admissions. Both are sources of concern. Both justify further action because what we are doing right now and for the last month isn't working. I just think that the prognosis is being materially misrepresented.
I don't think it's about exclusives at all, at least not the major franchises. It makes no sense to spend $7.5bn on a company and then cut off the 40% of revenue that is derived from PS4 (and that will be higher for PS5).
The way I see it going - all Bethesda games go onto Gamepass from day one and they launch on PS5 and Steam to buy maybe two or four weeks later at full price. That gives Xbox a short exclusivity window, but doesn't cut off significant cross-platform revenue. In a few years I seriously see Xbox hardware ceasing to exist as a going concern for MS and they just go all in with Xcloud and they get Sony offer it on PS5 once they are out of the console hardware space.
https://twitter.com/holysmoke/status/1308084702687965184?s=20
Worried about the vote on 30 September?
https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/sep/21/britons-eu-uk-bank-accounts-closed-lloyds-barclays-brexit
That 50,000 cases graph what piece of duplicitous sh!te.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/london-coronavirus-cases-testing-mystery-cases-fall-virus-spreads-a4552181.html
That's convenient. Perhaps best stop doing it and concentrate on other things.
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1308086873718435841
What you don't seem to be able to understand is that this a difficult set of trade-offs, and there are no magic bullets that will somehow make the problems go away. Whitty, Vallance etc completely understand that, and repeatedly make it clear that they understand it.
https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1308086527445143553?s=20
https://twitter.com/LucyMPowell/status/1308086915137232896?s=20
Johnson was baptised a Catholic and later confirmed into the Church of England,[40] but has stated that "his faith comes and goes"[553] and that he is not a serious practising Christian.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1307991700216766464/photo/1
3,105 new cases on 15th September should give new 6,210 cases on 22nd September.
Today, the 21st, new cases were 4,368.
We can look forward to checking the government's 'prediction' tomorrow.
Edit: got my cathedrals and abbeys confused!
Big scary numbers FFS.
But the discussion here is more intertwined that the ivy I've spent the afternoon lifting off our wall.
Fortunately my father's a lifelong hoarder, so I reckon we can go around a year without struggling.
https://twitter.com/MattCartoonist/status/1308091849421336579
So shutting at the 10pm stops the opportunities for social distancing to collapse.
A slight degree of competency on her part could well have seen us saying she was the best PM ever. An astonishing falling short.
Seems like the behavioural scientists might have been right about people can only take very stringent conditions on their lives for a short window.
Personally i blame big dom that the Spanish are carrying on against the rules.
It was like watching a documentary about my father, my mother and myself used to take the piss out of him for years, he's been unbelievably smug since lockdown was introduced.