WH2020 betting: The best odds on Biden are the in the national markets – Trump punters should go for
WH2020 betting: The best odds on Biden are the in the national markets – Trump punters should go for Michigan or Wisconsin – politicalbetting.com
As I write (1100 BST) quite a gap in the betting value has developed between the Betfair exchange odds on the national party of the next president market and what is available in the key states that will decide this election.
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'Oh, no reason..'
https://twitter.com/susie_dent/status/1306533390246608897?s=20
He can get away with winning 1 out of 3 providing he holds on to Florida, Arizona and North Carolina.
It's not only a better hedge if you're deeply into a Biden win, but probably also easier to lay at a considerable profit on election night if things start trending Trump's way, but you're not quite sure where it will end up.
Thoughts ?
"For there is almost no way that Trump can hang on unless he holds Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin"
This is very wrong.
Trump only has to hold on to ONE of these states (plus his other 2016 states). Pennsylvania at the moment is looking like the weakest link. I don't see any discrepancy between those state markets and the national markets.
BBC News - Coronavirus: Rhondda Cynon Taf lockdown 'frustration'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-54180450
I've looked, and the 218th seat in 2016 was Michigan-11. The GOP won that by 12.7% with a 1.1% lead in the generic vote nationally; so 11.6% lean to the GOP.
The 218th seat in 2018 was California-10. The GOP lost that by 4.6% and were 8.6% behind in the generic vote; so there was still a 4% House lean to the GOP.
There's another complicating factor in that generic vote and presidential vote don't entirely match but Ryan outperformed Trump by 3.2% in 2016 - as to how that shakes out it's not entirely clear.
So with no redistricting since 2016 or 2018 taking place, we can't be sure of the 2020 House lean as a prior - but it's a stretch to imagine it'll disappear completely for the GOP - and with that it's a huge stretch to somehow think the House is unwinnable for the GOP.
If you're going to go with that prior, you might as well write off Trump as well.
For there is almost no way that Trump can hang on unless he holds Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin
This is completely wrong, Biden definitely needs to win either Michigan and Wisconsin or Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania should be correlated with national odds - Biden does have the Arizona and NE-2 or Florida paths mind.
Biden needs MI, WI
And one of {PA, AZ + NE-2, FL}
Same as summer holidays, the government came up with the stupid airbridge idea, but personally it seemed like a daft and unnecessary risk to take.
UK government should be restricting foreign travel and testing / quarantining all arrivals, otherwise we just keep reimporting the virus.
https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1299366112098955264?s=20
https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1298473549280227328?s=20
https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1280175642223443968?s=20
People are treating things like Scotland post 2015. They saw 56 SNP seats and went "Well that's Scotland soliudly SNP for ever now" and ignored both that those gains were made on enormous swings and that many of those seats were now very marginal.
This is what happened in 2018. The Dems got some huge swings and those seats are now marginal seats.
https://twitter.com/IrvineWelsh/status/1306544920753299457?s=20
But must some whinge so extensively when they return and find the new situation inconvenient?
Give everybody certainty. Don't go booking these holidays, and if you do its 2 week quarantine afterwards.
He didn't have Netflix and the Internet though..
USC Dornsife today has {Biden + Dems 50%}, {Trump 44%/ GOP 46%}. Which is nice if you're on the GOP for the House and Biden for the presidency.
The GOP are going to outperform Trump in national vote share.
If it turns out that neither winter nor ski resorts lead to increased hospital admissions, then it would be easy to lift the ban early in the season.
I think you'll find there is enough of the virus here already.
Following your and Mystic's logic, we should stop people travelling to or from the North, very dangerous. Or South Wales. Stop all sport; both participating and spectating are unnecessary risks. Ban all non-essential shopping; going out and mixing with others just to buy something you don't need - how selfish is that?
Indeed unless you are a key worker you don't need to leave your town. Or street. Or house. Just stay at home.
If you want to break the law, you can ignore almost any law.
https://twitter.com/elliotttimes/status/1306549906719608836?s=20
Enjoy your lunch.
Opinium, 9th September:
"To what extent do you approve or disapprove of the way that Keir Starmer is handling his job as Leader of the Labour Party".
SNP Voters: Approve 28%, Disapprove 25%, Net +3%
All Scottish Voters: Approve 34%, Disapprove 26%, Net +8%
https://twitter.com/davieclegg/status/1306551572936241153?s=20
This just makes me want a beef curry.
Even if they have the law on their side, it doesn't alter the fact that Scotland would rather Westminster play nicely in the event of them deciding to go independent.
Like Trump
Idiot
Lovely poll shrinkage
Democrat politicians attended fundraisers for IRA munitions that killed civilians apparently.
Can Nigel Farage be far behind? That would complete the set.
People who regret trusting Boris and people who will regret trusting Boris.
Interesting. Not interesting.
I live in one of the worst affected UK areas. Infections over 150 per 100k. If I decide to travel to a "safe list" country, e.g. Greece with 25 per 100k or Italy with 23 per 100k, and spend two weeks there, the odds are that I will be a lesser risk to UK subjects on my return than if I had stayed in my home town for the two weeks. (Not to mention the obvious that it we don`t support the airlines and other tourism stakeholders they will be be fucked.)
Enjoy your apple strudel, by the way.
Natonwide Johnson is getting an average of about 39-40% approval.
I'm not clear how visiting a country with a lower rate of covidianism than the UK is more risky than, erm, going down the shops.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/09/meet-lauren-witzke-the-qanon-friendly-senate-nominee-in-delaware.html
I haven't particularly expressed an opinion on SKS one way or another, but on the basis of him not being BJ or Corbyn & not being a complete waste of space, I'd probably give hm a positive rating in his handling of his job as Leader of the Labour Party. Pretty sure more super Federalism guff and there being no need for another indy ref will garner many Scotch votes tho' (hint: it hasn't worked the last 223 times it's been tried).
In my normally quiet out of season home town, as soon as the lockdown was announced, a shedload of SeanT types - who had spent their lives yakking on about their wonderful lives in London - suddenly pitched up here, frightened about staying in the big city. Their normally dark empty second homes sprang to life and they proceeded to fill up our doctors' appointments and take the toilet rolls off our supermarket shelves. According to the local paper, several of them brought the virus with them and ended up filling a few of the handful of ICU beds at St Mary's
As soon as the lockdown ended, we have been destination for armies of Brits, many from hotspot towns in the Midlands and North, who didn't fancy Majorca or the Canaries this year.
All these visitors clearly push up my risk had I stayed at home. To be honest, although I am on the tourist circuit, a couple of weeks up here with the dog in the mountains feels like getting away from it all.
I have had homemade macaroni with tomato and local vegetables, followed by some sort of grilled river salmon with polenta, washed down with a flagon on white wine from the vines I can see down in the valley. The strudel will have to wait until later.