Don’t worry gang, as I’ve said before the medical cavalry is just over the hill. Vaccine coming fast down the tracks. If it wasn’t then there would be no point in any of these measures, you’d just let it play out.
The vaccine is a complete mirage. It matters not how desperately we crawl towards the damned thing, it's always shimmering on the horizon, always exactly the same distance away, always non-existent. The situation is hopeless.
I am genuinely very sorry you feel this way. But I have it on good authority that things are not as desperate as they may seem. Good news is around the corner.
My hedge fund friends are giddy with excitement over the Pfizer BioNTech vaccine, and think it will be the first to reach commercial volumes. (They also think it is the only one where you can manufacture hundreds of millions of doses per month without great difficulty.)
We drove about 1,000 miles over two days to get here, on both interstates and local roads, and got to see a lot of rural America.
Once you leave the big towns of Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona is full of small towns filled to the brim with Trump-Pence posters and car stickers. It's a real visible reminder of how there are two Americas: one urban and very Democrat, one rural and very Republican.
From an enthusiasm perspective, my trip would definitely give it to the Republicans. I'd say we saw five Trump posters for every one Biden one. But this has to be balanced by another thought. We talk a lot about shy Trump supporters on here, but if I lived in some of these towns and supported Biden, I don't think I'd admit it.
My forecast: the town and country split is going to be even bigger this time. Phoenix is sucking in young people to work in knowledge industries (like Just Auto Insurance!), and they're unfailingly Democratic. But the people outside the cities are feeling themselves more marginalised. And I think that means they'll come out in greater number to try and maintain the status quo.
My gut: Trump by less than two percentage points, but Mark Kelly to beat out McSally by five. (I saw literally no McSally posters in the whole of Arizona, against a few dozen Kelly ones.)
Yes we forget how red the 2016 county map was, even in New York state, Illinois and rural California, it really was the huge Hillary lead in urban areas which won her the popular vote.
It is a similar story here, even if not quite to the US extent, the cities are normally full of Labour and LD posters at election time, you start to see some Tory posters as well as you get into suburbia and market towns and villages and by the time you get to farmers fields the only posters you see are for the Tories!
We drove about 1,000 miles over two days to get here, on both interstates and local roads, and got to see a lot of rural America.
Once you leave the big towns of Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona is full of small towns filled to the brim with Trump-Pence posters and car stickers. It's a real visible reminder of how there are two Americas: one urban and very Democrat, one rural and very Republican.
From an enthusiasm perspective, my trip would definitely give it to the Republicans. I'd say we saw five Trump posters for every one Biden one. But this has to be balanced by another thought. We talk a lot about shy Trump supporters on here, but if I lived in some of these towns and supported Biden, I don't think I'd admit it.
My forecast: the town and country split is going to be even bigger this time. Phoenix is sucking in young people to work in knowledge industries (like Just Auto Insurance!), and they're unfailingly Democratic. But the people outside the cities are feeling themselves more marginalised. And I think that means they'll come out in greater number to try and maintain the status quo.
My gut: Trump by less than two percentage points, but Mark Kelly to beat out McSally by five. (I saw literally no McSally posters in the whole of Arizona, against a few dozen Kelly ones.)
Yes we forget how red the 2016 county map was, even in New York state, Illinois and rural California, it really was the huge Hillary lead in urban areas which won her the popular vote.
It is a similar story here, even if not quite to the US extent, the cities are normally full of Labour and LD posters at election time, you start to see some Tory posters as well as you get into suburbia and market towns and villages and by the time you get to farmers fields the only posters you see are for the Tories!
You'd have New York down as a solid republican state if you didn't know better looking at that map.
Vermont and California the only majority rural states ?
Don’t worry gang, as I’ve said before the medical cavalry is just over the hill. Vaccine coming fast down the tracks. If it wasn’t then there would be no point in any of these measures, you’d just let it play out.
The vaccine is a complete mirage. It matters not how desperately we crawl towards the damned thing, it's always shimmering on the horizon, always exactly the same distance away, always non-existent. The situation is hopeless.
Remember when the androids were going to wake up on polling day and do what they'd always done before? Occasionally good things happen - if only by random chance!
You'll forgive me if the notion of waiting for deliverance by miracle doesn't instill me with unconfined joy. There's no reason to suppose that this agony won't go on for years and years and years.
Aren't we due to have the reports from Pfizer by the end of next month, and (around that time) Oxford too? That should give us a fairly reliable indication of whether there's any hope. I'm pessimistic about many other things in the world, but not the vaccines.
Not just hope. It could lead to very rapid release of vaccines to the initial group (healthcare workers) perhaps as soon as Nov.
I know - I've been reading your comments!
But if you're leading us up the garden path, know that you will be forced to watch Michael Gove's entire comic output from the early 90s. On repeat
It is always possible that along the information chain someone has their reasons for yanking a chain. But it feels otherwise.
Robert S has written in the past about how even an imperfect vaccine, that merely halves R and the CFR changes the world. So long as such a vaccine is sufficiently safe for mass rollout then that seems a comfortable goal.
If I hear anything to overturn the bullishness I shall let you know. It’s not impossible there are leaks which confirm the optimism sooner than 5 weeks of course but not long to wait anyway.
If Boris does not regain his mojo then Xmas will still be drab of course, as it’s going to take a while to roll things out to the wider public.
Thanks, fingers crossed that our optimism is justified. Like you say, we'd don't need it to be perfect, we don't even need it to be anything more than average to both take the fear factor away and remove the need for extreme social restrictions to contain the spread. I'd be truly amazed if none of the candidates managed to hit at least that standard.
Don’t worry gang, as I’ve said before the medical cavalry is just over the hill. Vaccine coming fast down the tracks. If it wasn’t then there would be no point in any of these measures, you’d just let it play out.
The vaccine is a complete mirage. It matters not how desperately we crawl towards the damned thing, it's always shimmering on the horizon, always exactly the same distance away, always non-existent. The situation is hopeless.
Remember when the androids were going to wake up on polling day and do what they'd always done before? Occasionally good things happen - if only by random chance!
You'll forgive me if the notion of waiting for deliverance by miracle doesn't instill me with unconfined joy. There's no reason to suppose that this agony won't go on for years and years and years.
Aren't we due to have the reports from Pfizer by the end of next month, and (around that time) Oxford too? That should give us a fairly reliable indication of whether there's any hope. I'm pessimistic about many other things in the world, but not the vaccines.
Oxford: we'll get some data by the end of this month (and maybe as soon as next week). The story on Bloomberg is that the illness they saw was likely not vaccine related, and that all trials are now back and running.
Pfizer and Moderna are a little behind that, probably seeing results at the end of November.
Don’t worry gang, as I’ve said before the medical cavalry is just over the hill. Vaccine coming fast down the tracks. If it wasn’t then there would be no point in any of these measures, you’d just let it play out.
The vaccine is a complete mirage. It matters not how desperately we crawl towards the damned thing, it's always shimmering on the horizon, always exactly the same distance away, always non-existent. The situation is hopeless.
You will be getting your shot 3rd week of June next year - give or take.
Ask yourself WHY would Joe Biden go out of his way to criticize Boris Johnson's latest gambit (or gamble if you prefer)?
Surely NOT to appeal to the Fenian vote, because a) there's NOT much of it anymore; and b) what there is, is concentrated in a few states - notably Massachusetts & New York which are NOT battlegrounds.
So what IS the reason?
Methinks it is because it, in American eyes, Bojo is a bush-league Trumpsky. By highlighting both threat to the Good Friday Agreement AND the illegality (as admitted by British Minister) of the Internal Markets Bill, Biden is attacking - NOT Boris, and certainly NOT the UK - but instead contrasting himself against the Putinist threat to peace AND the rule of law.
That's more or less my reading of it. Edit: although, of course, you're view is a very Democrat one.
Still doesn't make it a wise or diplomatic thing to do. Behind closed doors or more nuanced in public, "we hope the UK considers its obligations carefully and we look forward to working with it" etc. or similar would have been better.
Keeping his trap shut would have been better. Impertinent old goat.
More Brits get their backs up about this, the better it is politically for Uncle Joe.
SO why don't you try writing a 21st-century version of the Murchison Letter to REALLY smoke him out?
Pissing off the Brits is electorally popular in the USA?
What a narrow-minded view.
You know American politics but are as biased as hell.
Pissing off Brits is NOT the dog whistle it was back at time of Murchison Letter or even later.
However, when Biden defends the Good Friday Agreement AND the rule of law, and "Rule Britannia" types hyperventilate on grounds that peace in Ireland and international law are NOT valid concerns for the US and it's potential future President, then yes, it will help Biden.
Not hugely, of course. BUT then again, this election is all about working the margins in a full-court press.
Don’t worry gang, as I’ve said before the medical cavalry is just over the hill. Vaccine coming fast down the tracks. If it wasn’t then there would be no point in any of these measures, you’d just let it play out.
The vaccine is a complete mirage. It matters not how desperately we crawl towards the damned thing, it's always shimmering on the horizon, always exactly the same distance away, always non-existent. The situation is hopeless.
H2 2021 has been my base case for an effective vaccine programme. Still hopeful of that, although there are risks. Going from initial outbreak to an effectively vaccinated population in less that two years would be a remarkable achievement. It normally takes a decade.
About the only good thing to come out of this unfolding disaster is that the fools who are trying and failing to run this country might finally desist from trying to bully and cajole officey types into resuming the daily commute.
The pre-March 2020 economy is dead. No amount of pleading is going to save commuter train operating companies or all those sandwich shops, both used to flogging their vastly overpriced products to a captive market that's suddenly not captive anymore.
We drove about 1,000 miles over two days to get here, on both interstates and local roads, and got to see a lot of rural America.
Once you leave the big towns of Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona is full of small towns filled to the brim with Trump-Pence posters and car stickers. It's a real visible reminder of how there are two Americas: one urban and very Democrat, one rural and very Republican.
From an enthusiasm perspective, my trip would definitely give it to the Republicans. I'd say we saw five Trump posters for every one Biden one. But this has to be balanced by another thought. We talk a lot about shy Trump supporters on here, but if I lived in some of these towns and supported Biden, I don't think I'd admit it.
My forecast: the town and country split is going to be even bigger this time. Phoenix is sucking in young people to work in knowledge industries (like Just Auto Insurance!), and they're unfailingly Democratic. But the people outside the cities are feeling themselves more marginalised. And I think that means they'll come out in greater number to try and maintain the status quo.
My gut: Trump by less than two percentage points, but Mark Kelly to beat out McSally by five. (I saw literally no McSally posters in the whole of Arizona, against a few dozen Kelly ones.)
Yes we forget how red the 2016 county map was, even in New York state, Illinois and rural California, it really was the huge Hillary lead in urban areas which won her the popular vote.
It is a similar story here, even if not quite to the US extent, the cities are normally full of Labour and LD posters at election time, you start to see some Tory posters as well as you get into suburbia and market towns and villages and by the time you get to farmers fields the only posters you see are for the Tories!
Of course America like us is a highly urbanised society. Such maps are betterdrawn by population areas. Arizona looks very red, but consider the population of Maricopa County (Phoenix)* before you allocate it to Trump.
Why wouldn't it when the alternative is teaching shame about it?
Perhaps just objectively study history with a view to establishing the truth?
What you are on about is people making an unnecessary fuss about slightly regrettable but ultimately trivial issues like black slavery and native American dispossession. Just wondering what more-than-countervailing moral good on the part of the USA Trump wants to talk about? In the UK case it is usually (and hilariously) Bishop bloody Wilberforce, but he belongs to us. So what is it?
I don't think History can ever be taught objectively. It is not just a matter of recording facts. The selection and interpretation of those facts is always going to be subjective.
One of my minor pleasures (and not one that Mrs Foxy shares) is to visit other countries national museums and get their countries perspectives on events that I have learned from a British perspective.
Seeing the Irish interpret their war of independence, the displays on the Mau Mau in Nairobi, the History of Barbados and Mauritius, and even the Maori wars have all been illuminating. The Nairobi railway museum is an interesting gem too, to get another perspective.
Nah, I think that's a cop out. It certainly can be - that's just an excuse people use to push their favourite subjects and angles.
And it's entirely appropriate for Britons to learn history from a British perspective just as it is for other nations to learn it from theirs.
Of course we should learn from a British perspective, but we shouldn't pretend that it is an objective truth.
I agree, and I don't think history teachers do say that.
My recollection of both GCSE and A-level history was in considering different primary and secondary sources with different views, and your essays had to weigh them up, explain what each was trying to get across and draw your own conclusions on which was more convincing.
Excellent article and I genuinely find it funny that the betting markets are currently moving against trump even as his position improves.
One of Sean T's best?
I think Sean Trende is outstanding. More than any commentator, he explains things as they are, rather than as he would like them to be.
I thought his article The God That Failed (about how demographic change failed to deliver the results it was supposed to) was probably the best article on politics I've ever read.
Latest Pew Research makes horrid reading for the orange lunatic . 77% think a vaccine is being rushed and safety might be an issue . Trump thinks a vaccine will save him but Biden simply has to say why should Americans trust you to get the distribution right when you failed on the response to the virus . And by the time any vaccine does appear if it does appear before the election so many people will have already voted.
About the only good thing to come out of this unfolding disaster is that the fools who are trying and failing to run this country might finally desist from trying to bully and cajole officey types into resuming the daily commute.
The pre-March 2020 economy is dead. No amount of pleading is going to save commuter train operating companies or all those sandwich shops, both used to flogging their vastly overpriced products to a captive market that's suddenly not captive anymore.
I can see this realignment, especially in the south, in similar terms to the deindustrialization of the North in the 80/90s.
Loads of supporting industries just aren't going to be necessary.
We drove about 1,000 miles over two days to get here, on both interstates and local roads, and got to see a lot of rural America.
Once you leave the big towns of Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona is full of small towns filled to the brim with Trump-Pence posters and car stickers. It's a real visible reminder of how there are two Americas: one urban and very Democrat, one rural and very Republican.
From an enthusiasm perspective, my trip would definitely give it to the Republicans. I'd say we saw five Trump posters for every one Biden one. But this has to be balanced by another thought. We talk a lot about shy Trump supporters on here, but if I lived in some of these towns and supported Biden, I don't think I'd admit it.
My forecast: the town and country split is going to be even bigger this time. Phoenix is sucking in young people to work in knowledge industries (like Just Auto Insurance!), and they're unfailingly Democratic. But the people outside the cities are feeling themselves more marginalised. And I think that means they'll come out in greater number to try and maintain the status quo.
My gut: Trump by less than two percentage points, but Mark Kelly to beat out McSally by five. (I saw literally no McSally posters in the whole of Arizona, against a few dozen Kelly ones.)
Yes we forget how red the 2016 county map was, even in New York state, Illinois and rural California, it really was the huge Hillary lead in urban areas which won her the popular vote.
It is a similar story here, even if not quite to the US extent, the cities are normally full of Labour and LD posters at election time, you start to see some Tory posters as well as you get into suburbia and market towns and villages and by the time you get to farmers fields the only posters you see are for the Tories!
You'd have New York down as a solid republican state if you didn't know better looking at that map.
Vermont and California the only majority rural states ?
Approximately 97% of the US land area is within rural counties but only 19% of the US population live in those areas
Don’t worry gang, as I’ve said before the medical cavalry is just over the hill. Vaccine coming fast down the tracks. If it wasn’t then there would be no point in any of these measures, you’d just let it play out.
The vaccine is a complete mirage. It matters not how desperately we crawl towards the damned thing, it's always shimmering on the horizon, always exactly the same distance away, always non-existent. The situation is hopeless.
You will be getting your shot 3rd week of June next year - give or take.
However given there are only 21 Tory MPs left in London, the North has 3 times the number of Tory MPs as the capital now. Greater London and the Midlands used to be the key swing regions with the Tories winning the South and Labour winning the North, Scotland and Wales.
Now the Tories still win the South but Greater London is solid Labour and the North and Wales have joined the Midlands as swing regions with Labour now behind both the SNP and Tories in Scotland
Excellent article and I genuinely find it funny that the betting markets are currently moving against trump even as his position improves.
One of Sean T's best?
I think Sean Trende is outstanding. More than any commentator, he explains things as they are, rather than as he would like them to be.
I thought his article The God That Failed (about how demographic change failed to deliver the results it was supposed to) was probably the best article on politics I've ever read.
Ask yourself WHY would Joe Biden go out of his way to criticize Boris Johnson's latest gambit (or gamble if you prefer)?
Surely NOT to appeal to the Fenian vote, because a) there's NOT much of it anymore; and b) what there is, is concentrated in a few states - notably Massachusetts & New York which are NOT battlegrounds.
So what IS the reason?
Methinks it is because it, in American eyes, Bojo is a bush-league Trumpsky. By highlighting both threat to the Good Friday Agreement AND the illegality (as admitted by British Minister) of the Internal Markets Bill, Biden is attacking - NOT Boris, and certainly NOT the UK - but instead contrasting himself against the Putinist threat to peace AND the rule of law.
Is it because the Irish have got the hang of this diplomacy thing? I doubt Mr and Mrs Average in Hicksville care anything about Northern Ireland or could place it on a map. But it is of interest to certain politicos in the Beltway. And if Dominic Raab ranting at congressmen and women at the British embassy is our best weapon, it's hardly surprising the Special Relationship is with the other lot.
About the only good thing to come out of this unfolding disaster is that the fools who are trying and failing to run this country might finally desist from trying to bully and cajole officey types into resuming the daily commute.
The pre-March 2020 economy is dead. No amount of pleading is going to save commuter train operating companies or all those sandwich shops, both used to flogging their vastly overpriced products to a captive market that's suddenly not captive anymore.
I can see this realignment, especially in the south, in similar terms to the deindustrialization of the North in the 80/90s.
Loads of supporting industries just aren't going to be necessary.
It's rather different in this case. In coal and heavy industry, the economic activity simply evaporated as they became uncompetitive. This time around, most of that activity isn't disappearing, it's simply relocating from big urban centres to smaller ones in the suburbs and smaller cities and towns.
Some leafy parts of the country may well be better off at the end of all this*. Central London, in particular, is going to be badly scarred. Years more Covid restrictions and a substantial permanent move to part-time or full-time WFH, as well as the continuing growth of online retail, will see to that.
* Unless we end up in the nightmare scenario of endlessly repeating lockdown cycles, in which case everybody has had it.
Leading scientists advising the UK government have proposed a two-week national lockdown in October to try to tackle the rising number of coronavirus cases.
Experts on the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) and the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (Spi-m) have suggested a national lockdown that could coincide with the October school half-term.
The government is keen to avoid the reclosure of schools, having shut them during the national lockdown in March and only fully reopening them this autumn.
That helps to explain why the government’s scientific advisers have looked at how a two-week national lockdown might coincide with the October half- term as part of efforts to bring Covid-19 under control.
“As schools will be closed for one week at half-term, adding an extra week to that will have limited impact on education,” said one scientist who is a member of Sage, confirming the body had considered the case for a national lockdown in October.
Another scientist who is a member of Spi-m said the body had also looked at a national lockdown that could take place next month.
However given there are only 21 Tory MPs left in London, the North has 3 times the number of Tory MPs than the capital now. Greater London and the Midlands used to be the key swing regions with the Tories winning the South and Labour winning the North, Scotland and Wales.
Now the Tories still win the South but Greater London is solid Labour and the North and Wales have joined the Midlands as swing regions with Labour now behind both the SNP and Tories in Scotland
The East and West Midlands are probably not swing regions now. Outside core cities, they are now very heavily Conservative. Historic marginals like NW Leics, Nuneaton, Warwickshire North, Sherwood, are outside Labour's reach.
We drove about 1,000 miles over two days to get here, on both interstates and local roads, and got to see a lot of rural America.
Once you leave the big towns of Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona is full of small towns filled to the brim with Trump-Pence posters and car stickers. It's a real visible reminder of how there are two Americas: one urban and very Democrat, one rural and very Republican.
From an enthusiasm perspective, my trip would definitely give it to the Republicans. I'd say we saw five Trump posters for every one Biden one. But this has to be balanced by another thought. We talk a lot about shy Trump supporters on here, but if I lived in some of these towns and supported Biden, I don't think I'd admit it.
My forecast: the town and country split is going to be even bigger this time. Phoenix is sucking in young people to work in knowledge industries (like Just Auto Insurance!), and they're unfailingly Democratic. But the people outside the cities are feeling themselves more marginalised. And I think that means they'll come out in greater number to try and maintain the status quo.
My gut: Trump by less than two percentage points, but Mark Kelly to beat out McSally by five. (I saw literally no McSally posters in the whole of Arizona, against a few dozen Kelly ones.)
Yes we forget how red the 2016 county map was, even in New York state, Illinois and rural California, it really was the huge Hillary lead in urban areas which won her the popular vote.
It is a similar story here, even if not quite to the US extent, the cities are normally full of Labour and LD posters at election time, you start to see some Tory posters as well as you get into suburbia and market towns and villages and by the time you get to farmers fields the only posters you see are for the Tories!
You'd have New York down as a solid republican state if you didn't know better looking at that map.
Vermont and California the only majority rural states ?
Take it you mean, VT and CA the only states where majority of rural areas are blue?
You could say that for Massachusetts as well as (in fact better than) Vermont. And at least as well (or pretty close) for New Mexico as for California.
Re: Cali note that most of the blue blob in southern CA is Los Angeles, Riverside & San Diego counties, which have lots of rural & empty acres BUT where the VOTES come from cities & suburbs.
Re: acres versus voters, old PBers may remember the excitement of the 2008 Democratic primary in Missouri, when Obama & Clinton were running neck-and-neck on the night as the returns started coming in.
Some PBers were convinced that Clinton would win, because only a handful of counties were going for Obama. Others (who shall remain nameless) pointed out that the remaining votes to be counted were concentrated in just a couple areas: St Louis City, St Louis County and Jackson County (Kansas City).
It’s hilarious to see the constant moving of the goal posts by Tory MPs . They bigged up a US trade deal and now think it’s really not a problem if that doesn’t happen. And now are having twitter meltdowns because Joe Biden who clearly doesn’t think much of Brexit gave them a reality check over NI .
However given there are only 21 Tory MPs left in London, the North has 3 times the number of Tory MPs than the capital now. Greater London and the Midlands used to be the key swing regions with the Tories winning the South and Labour winning the North, Scotland and Wales.
Now the Tories still win the South but Greater London is solid Labour and the North and Wales have joined the Midlands as swing regions with Labour now behind both the SNP and Tories in Scotland
The East and West Midlands are probably not swing regions now. Outside core cities, they are now very heavily Conservative. Historic marginals like NW Leics, Nuneaton, Warwickshire North, Sherwood, are outside Labour's reach.
The East and East Midlands certainly, Lincolnshire and Essex had the highest Tory voteshares of any counties in the country last year but the West Midlands is still a swing region (and the East is often classified as the South anyway).
Leading scientists advising the UK government have proposed a two-week national lockdown in October to try to tackle the rising number of coronavirus cases.
Experts on the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) and the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (Spi-m) have suggested a national lockdown that could coincide with the October school half-term.
The government is keen to avoid the reclosure of schools, having shut them during the national lockdown in March and only fully reopening them this autumn.
That helps to explain why the government’s scientific advisers have looked at how a two-week national lockdown might coincide with the October half- term as part of efforts to bring Covid-19 under control.
“As schools will be closed for one week at half-term, adding an extra week to that will have limited impact on education,” said one scientist who is a member of Sage, confirming the body had considered the case for a national lockdown in October.
Another scientist who is a member of Spi-m said the body had also looked at a national lockdown that could take place next month.
If true then it's over. We're finished.
Once they do this in October there'll be another one all over the Christmas holiday and another one after that in February. 10 million unemployed and complete national ruin beckon.
I'm not sure that I'd like to be Starmer at the end of all this. Yes, he'll have a Parliamentary majority of about 200 to work with, but why would anyone want to deal with a population consisting of depressed, angry and suicidal alcoholics with a per capita GDP somewhere around that of Bulgaria?
We drove about 1,000 miles over two days to get here, on both interstates and local roads, and got to see a lot of rural America.
Once you leave the big towns of Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona is full of small towns filled to the brim with Trump-Pence posters and car stickers. It's a real visible reminder of how there are two Americas: one urban and very Democrat, one rural and very Republican.
From an enthusiasm perspective, my trip would definitely give it to the Republicans. I'd say we saw five Trump posters for every one Biden one. But this has to be balanced by another thought. We talk a lot about shy Trump supporters on here, but if I lived in some of these towns and supported Biden, I don't think I'd admit it.
My forecast: the town and country split is going to be even bigger this time. Phoenix is sucking in young people to work in knowledge industries (like Just Auto Insurance!), and they're unfailingly Democratic. But the people outside the cities are feeling themselves more marginalised. And I think that means they'll come out in greater number to try and maintain the status quo.
My gut: Trump by less than two percentage points, but Mark Kelly to beat out McSally by five. (I saw literally no McSally posters in the whole of Arizona, against a few dozen Kelly ones.)
Yes we forget how red the 2016 county map was, even in New York state, Illinois and rural California, it really was the huge Hillary lead in urban areas which won her the popular vote.
It is a similar story here, even if not quite to the US extent, the cities are normally full of Labour and LD posters at election time, you start to see some Tory posters as well as you get into suburbia and market towns and villages and by the time you get to farmers fields the only posters you see are for the Tories!
You'd have New York down as a solid republican state if you didn't know better looking at that map.
Vermont and California the only majority rural states ?
Take it you mean, VT and CA the only states where majority of rural areas are blue?
You could say that for Massachusetts as well as (in fact better than) Vermont. And at least as well (or pretty close) for New Mexico as for California.
Re: Cali note that most of the blue blob in southern CA is Los Angeles, Riverside & San Diego counties, which have lots of rural & empty acres BUT where the VOTES come from cities & suburbs.
Re: acres versus voters, old PBers may remember the excitement of the 2008 Democratic primary in Missouri, when Obama & Clinton were running neck-and-neck on the night as the returns started coming in.
Some PBers were convinced that Clinton would win, because only a handful of counties were going for Obama. Others (who shall remain nameless) pointed out that the remaining votes to be counted were concentrated in just a couple areas: St Louis City, St Louis County and Jackson County (Kansas City).
Guess who ended up winning THAT primary election?
I would add Hawaii and Rhode Island to Massachusetts and Vermont and California as the only states where most counties voted for Hillary in 2016 (plus DC of course).
In Illinois and New York and Minnesota and Nevada and Colorado and Virginia and Washington it was Chicago, New York city, Minneapolis, Las Vegas, Denver, the DC suburbs and Seattle which made the states go blue, the majority of the counties in those states voted for Trump
We drove about 1,000 miles over two days to get here, on both interstates and local roads, and got to see a lot of rural America.
Once you leave the big towns of Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona is full of small towns filled to the brim with Trump-Pence posters and car stickers. It's a real visible reminder of how there are two Americas: one urban and very Democrat, one rural and very Republican.
From an enthusiasm perspective, my trip would definitely give it to the Republicans. I'd say we saw five Trump posters for every one Biden one. But this has to be balanced by another thought. We talk a lot about shy Trump supporters on here, but if I lived in some of these towns and supported Biden, I don't think I'd admit it.
My forecast: the town and country split is going to be even bigger this time. Phoenix is sucking in young people to work in knowledge industries (like Just Auto Insurance!), and they're unfailingly Democratic. But the people outside the cities are feeling themselves more marginalised. And I think that means they'll come out in greater number to try and maintain the status quo.
My gut: Trump by less than two percentage points, but Mark Kelly to beat out McSally by five. (I saw literally no McSally posters in the whole of Arizona, against a few dozen Kelly ones.)
Yes we forget how red the 2016 county map was, even in New York state, Illinois and rural California, it really was the huge Hillary lead in urban areas which won her the popular vote.
It is a similar story here, even if not quite to the US extent, the cities are normally full of Labour and LD posters at election time, you start to see some Tory posters as well as you get into suburbia and market towns and villages and by the time you get to farmers fields the only posters you see are for the Tories!
Of course America like us is a highly urbanised society. Such maps are betterdrawn by population areas. Arizona looks very red, but consider the population of Maricopa County (Phoenix)* before you allocate it to Trump.
Excellent article and I genuinely find it funny that the betting markets are currently moving against trump even as his position improves.
Oh, that's perfectly logical (the markets). Trump has to be on a path if he's going to win, and that path probably involves Biden dropping below 50%. Every day Biden's share remains solid is a day he's dropping behind on the path.
This worries me because it suggests to me that Biden is trying to shore up his base, and not win over floaters.
Which makes me worry about my exposed position a tad.
Think many, perhaps most floaters are blue- and pink-collar workers. Plus even (slightly) more affluent voters are starting to feel the pinch as unemployment checks are running out (or failing to arrive).
Also, still some Sanders - Warren voters who need nudging. But main target is (Once) Great American Middle Class.
Leading scientists advising the UK government have proposed a two-week national lockdown in October to try to tackle the rising number of coronavirus cases.
Experts on the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) and the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (Spi-m) have suggested a national lockdown that could coincide with the October school half-term.
The government is keen to avoid the reclosure of schools, having shut them during the national lockdown in March and only fully reopening them this autumn.
That helps to explain why the government’s scientific advisers have looked at how a two-week national lockdown might coincide with the October half- term as part of efforts to bring Covid-19 under control.
“As schools will be closed for one week at half-term, adding an extra week to that will have limited impact on education,” said one scientist who is a member of Sage, confirming the body had considered the case for a national lockdown in October.
Another scientist who is a member of Spi-m said the body had also looked at a national lockdown that could take place next month.
If true then it's over. We're finished.
Once they do this in October there'll be another one all over the Christmas holiday and another one after that in February. 10 million unemployed and complete national ruin beckon.
I'm not sure that I'd like to be Starmer at the end of all this. Yes, he'll have a Parliamentary majority of about 200 to work with, but why would anyone want to deal with a population consisting of depressed, angry and suicidal alcoholics with a per capita GDP somewhere around that of Bulgaria?
Sent you a PM. Hope you end up neither depressed, angry, suicidal nor alcoholic! (And hope the same for myself...)
Leading scientists advising the UK government have proposed a two-week national lockdown in October to try to tackle the rising number of coronavirus cases.
Experts on the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) and the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (Spi-m) have suggested a national lockdown that could coincide with the October school half-term.
The government is keen to avoid the reclosure of schools, having shut them during the national lockdown in March and only fully reopening them this autumn.
That helps to explain why the government’s scientific advisers have looked at how a two-week national lockdown might coincide with the October half- term as part of efforts to bring Covid-19 under control.
“As schools will be closed for one week at half-term, adding an extra week to that will have limited impact on education,” said one scientist who is a member of Sage, confirming the body had considered the case for a national lockdown in October.
Another scientist who is a member of Spi-m said the body had also looked at a national lockdown that could take place next month.
If true then it's over. We're finished.
Once they do this in October there'll be another one all over the Christmas holiday and another one after that in February. 10 million unemployed and complete national ruin beckon.
I'm not sure that I'd like to be Starmer at the end of all this. Yes, he'll have a Parliamentary majority of about 200 to work with, but why would anyone want to deal with a population consisting of depressed, angry and suicidal alcoholics with a per capita GDP somewhere around that of Bulgaria?
Presumably every time they impose a new lockdown Sunak will have to reimpose new furlough funding too to avoid rising unemployment?
On today's figures about 10% are still on furlough, which added to the current 4% unemployed would make about 14% unemployed by the end of October if they are not back in the workplace when furlough ends
We drove about 1,000 miles over two days to get here, on both interstates and local roads, and got to see a lot of rural America.
Once you leave the big towns of Phoenix and Tucson, Arizona is full of small towns filled to the brim with Trump-Pence posters and car stickers. It's a real visible reminder of how there are two Americas: one urban and very Democrat, one rural and very Republican.
From an enthusiasm perspective, my trip would definitely give it to the Republicans. I'd say we saw five Trump posters for every one Biden one. But this has to be balanced by another thought. We talk a lot about shy Trump supporters on here, but if I lived in some of these towns and supported Biden, I don't think I'd admit it.
My forecast: the town and country split is going to be even bigger this time. Phoenix is sucking in young people to work in knowledge industries (like Just Auto Insurance!), and they're unfailingly Democratic. But the people outside the cities are feeling themselves more marginalised. And I think that means they'll come out in greater number to try and maintain the status quo.
My gut: Trump by less than two percentage points, but Mark Kelly to beat out McSally by five. (I saw literally no McSally posters in the whole of Arizona, against a few dozen Kelly ones.)
Yes we forget how red the 2016 county map was, even in New York state, Illinois and rural California, it really was the huge Hillary lead in urban areas which won her the popular vote.
It is a similar story here, even if not quite to the US extent, the cities are normally full of Labour and LD posters at election time, you start to see some Tory posters as well as you get into suburbia and market towns and villages and by the time you get to farmers fields the only posters you see are for the Tories!
You'd have New York down as a solid republican state if you didn't know better looking at that map.
Vermont and California the only majority rural states ?
Take it you mean, VT and CA the only states where majority of rural areas are blue?
You could say that for Massachusetts as well as (in fact better than) Vermont. And at least as well (or pretty close) for New Mexico as for California.
Re: Cali note that most of the blue blob in southern CA is Los Angeles, Riverside & San Diego counties, which have lots of rural & empty acres BUT where the VOTES come from cities & suburbs.
Re: acres versus voters, old PBers may remember the excitement of the 2008 Democratic primary in Missouri, when Obama & Clinton were running neck-and-neck on the night as the returns started coming in.
Some PBers were convinced that Clinton would win, because only a handful of counties were going for Obama. Others (who shall remain nameless) pointed out that the remaining votes to be counted were concentrated in just a couple areas: St Louis City, St Louis County and Jackson County (Kansas City).
Guess who ended up winning THAT primary election?
I would add Hawaii and Rhode Island to Massachusetts and Vermont and California as the only states where most counties voted for Hillary in 2016 (plus DC of course).
In Illinois and New York and Minnesota and Nevada and Colorado and Virginia and Washington it was Chicago, New York city, Minneapolis, Las Vegas, Denver, the DC suburbs and Seattle which made the states go blue, the majority of the counties in those states voted for Trump
Way back when, most states tended to allocate state HOUSE seats by population (sort of) but state SENATE seats by county; in New Hampshire EVERY town was entitled to at least one seat in state house.
In Georgia, elections were conducted via a county-unit system, which gave the rural counties a BIG advantage over Fulton Co (Atlanta) and other urban areas.
Until the 1964 "One Man, One Vote" decision by POTUS. Which changed the landscape dramatically. EXCEPT of course for the US Senate. Because the two senators per state rule is enshrined in the Constitution (part of the Great Compromise at the Constitutional Convention of 1789) and can NOT be altered unless & until the Constitution is amended., Which AIN"T gonna happen in this case.
BTW, believe this is first election where someone from state with just ONE representative in US House is a major-party nominee for President. (Believe Sarah Palin was first from one rep state to be nominated for VP.)
Caesar Romney and the Blue Hen Regiment would be proud!
Don’t worry gang, as I’ve said before the medical cavalry is just over the hill. Vaccine coming fast down the tracks. If it wasn’t then there would be no point in any of these measures, you’d just let it play out.
The vaccine is a complete mirage. It matters not how desperately we crawl towards the damned thing, it's always shimmering on the horizon, always exactly the same distance away, always non-existent. The situation is hopeless.
Remember when the androids were going to wake up on polling day and do what they'd always done before? Occasionally good things happen - if only by random chance!
You'll forgive me if the notion of waiting for deliverance by miracle doesn't instill me with unconfined joy. There's no reason to suppose that this agony won't go on for years and years and years.
Aren't we due to have the reports from Pfizer by the end of next month, and (around that time) Oxford too? That should give us a fairly reliable indication of whether there's any hope. I'm pessimistic about many other things in the world, but not the vaccines.
I've no idea about Pfizer. We do, of course, know all about the latest setback to the Oxford project, where everything stopped because one person involved in the trial got sick. Now, I understand why they stopped, and the lengthy faff that must necessarily follow, but delays like this are why it typically takes about ten years to develop a new vaccine for anything, and why there is no particular reason to imagine that the process won't take that long in this instance. And there's no guarantee that any of these vaccines will ultimately do very much good at all.
I know the researchers have never had so much incentive as they do now (if someone comes up with a silver bullet then they deserve to be handed the Nobel Prize for Medicine unopposed and hosed down with billions and billions of dollars just for extracting us from this endless shitty purgatory,) but the fact remains that no vaccine has ever been developed for any coronavirus, if my recollection is right. Will one magically appear in the timescale needed to prevent, at the very least, our reduction to a psychologically traumatized train wreck of a nation inhabited largely by penniless alcoholics? Colour me sceptical.
I think you're being pessimistic here. The Oxford trial was stopped only for a week, and it's important to understand that this only means that they stopped dosing -- the already-dosed participants were still walking around, some of them (hopefully in the placebo group) catching COVID, and thus still building efficacy data.
Pfizer and Moderna have apparently released their entire trial designs, including the normally-confidential conditions under which the data monitoring board will stop the trial. I don't have time to find and read them right now but going on secondary sources: interim readouts for Moderna will be at 53, 106, and 151 cases, and they do some simple stats to show how much efficacy would be needed at each point. They are expecting 53 cases in November. Pfizer seem very confident that their interim readout at 32 cases will be October, but they would need amazing efficacy to see enough power at that stage. Although Oxford's trial started earlier, they seem rather slower in dosing participants, and I don't think their interim readout stages are public.
But it all points to November-ish, if at least one of these vaccines works. October if we get seriously lucky, December if somewhat unlucky. It has looked that way, to my back-of-envelope scribbles, since June. Of course licensing and roll-out will take time (and perhaps manufacture, depending on which vaccine it is and where we land in the queue) but I think we'll all feel a lot better knowing that one is coming.
Don’t worry gang, as I’ve said before the medical cavalry is just over the hill. Vaccine coming fast down the tracks. If it wasn’t then there would be no point in any of these measures, you’d just let it play out.
The vaccine is a complete mirage. It matters not how desperately we crawl towards the damned thing, it's always shimmering on the horizon, always exactly the same distance away, always non-existent. The situation is hopeless.
Remember when the androids were going to wake up on polling day and do what they'd always done before? Occasionally good things happen - if only by random chance!
You'll forgive me if the notion of waiting for deliverance by miracle doesn't instill me with unconfined joy. There's no reason to suppose that this agony won't go on for years and years and years.
Aren't we due to have the reports from Pfizer by the end of next month, and (around that time) Oxford too? That should give us a fairly reliable indication of whether there's any hope. I'm pessimistic about many other things in the world, but not the vaccines.
I've no idea about Pfizer. We do, of course, know all about the latest setback to the Oxford project, where everything stopped because one person involved in the trial got sick. Now, I understand why they stopped, and the lengthy faff that must necessarily follow, but delays like this are why it typically takes about ten years to develop a new vaccine for anything, and why there is no particular reason to imagine that the process won't take that long in this instance. And there's no guarantee that any of these vaccines will ultimately do very much good at all.
I know the researchers have never had so much incentive as they do now (if someone comes up with a silver bullet then they deserve to be handed the Nobel Prize for Medicine unopposed and hosed down with billions and billions of dollars just for extracting us from this endless shitty purgatory,) but the fact remains that no vaccine has ever been developed for any coronavirus, if my recollection is right. Will one magically appear in the timescale needed to prevent, at the very least, our reduction to a psychologically traumatized train wreck of a nation inhabited largely by penniless alcoholics? Colour me sceptical.
I think you're being pessimistic here. The Oxford trial was stopped only for a week, and it's important to understand that this only means that they stopped dosing -- the already-dosed participants were still walking around, some of them (hopefully in the placebo group) catching COVID, and thus still building efficacy data.
Pfizer and Moderna have apparently released their entire trial designs, including the normally-confidential conditions under which the data monitoring board will stop the trial. I don't have time to find and read them right now but going on secondary sources: interim readouts for Moderna will be at 53, 106, and 151 cases, and they do some simple stats to show how much efficacy would be needed at each point. They are expecting 53 cases in November. Pfizer seem very confident that their interim readout at 32 cases will be October, but they would need amazing efficacy to see enough power at that stage. Although Oxford's trial started earlier, they seem rather slower in dosing participants, and I don't think their interim readout stages are public.
But it all points to November-ish, if at least one of these vaccines works. October if we get seriously lucky, December if somewhat unlucky. It has looked that way, to my back-of-envelope scribbles, since June. Of course licensing and roll-out will take time (and perhaps manufacture, depending on which vaccine it is and where we land in the queue) but I think we'll all feel a lot better knowing that one is coming.
--AS
I'll be surprised if we don't have first doses of a vaccine going live by the end of Q1 next year.
I don't think History can ever be taught objectively. It is not just a matter of recording facts. The selection and interpretation of those facts is always going to be subjective. ...
The selection, maybe, although some selections are so biased that they are clearly nowhere near 'objective'. For example, a history of Nazism which didn't mention the Holocaust wouldn't be merely 'selective', it would be objective garbage.
But at least we should get the facts right. To take one example which jumped out these very pages a couple of days ago, @OnlyLivingBoy posted this:
..we didn't build much infrastructure in Africa. We were mostly there for the enslaving, followed by land stealing and resource extraction.
I don't think this was ironic, and assuming it wasn't, let's deconstruct it, looking at some very basic facts:
Dates: Slave Trade Act 1807. Slavery Abolition Act 1834. Treaty for the Suppression of the African Slave Trade 1841 - Royal Navy now suppressing the international trade. Birth of Cecil Rhodes 1853. Rhodes becomes Prime Minister of the Cape Colony 1890. Modern-day Kenya comes under British rule 1890.
Enslavement: Done almost entirely by African tribes and kingdoms, and to some extent Arabs.
Building infrastructure: Well, dunno about you, but I can't help feeling that railways were a rather important bit of 19th century infrastructure, and I'm puzzled as to who built them in the countries of the British Empire if it wasn't the British.
Facts are facts. You can interpret and select them to some extent, but not to the extent of @OnlyLivingBoy's comment.
About the only good thing to come out of this unfolding disaster is that the fools who are trying and failing to run this country might finally desist from trying to bully and cajole officey types into resuming the daily commute.
The pre-March 2020 economy is dead. No amount of pleading is going to save commuter train operating companies or all those sandwich shops, both used to flogging their vastly overpriced products to a captive market that's suddenly not captive anymore.
I can see this realignment, especially in the south, in similar terms to the deindustrialization of the North in the 80/90s.
Loads of supporting industries just aren't going to be necessary.
It's rather different in this case. In coal and heavy industry, the economic activity simply evaporated as they became uncompetitive. This time around, most of that activity isn't disappearing, it's simply relocating from big urban centres to smaller ones in the suburbs and smaller cities and towns.
Some leafy parts of the country may well be better off at the end of all this*. Central London, in particular, is going to be badly scarred. Years more Covid restrictions and a substantial permanent move to part-time or full-time WFH, as well as the continuing growth of online retail, will see to that.
* Unless we end up in the nightmare scenario of endlessly repeating lockdown cycles, in which case everybody has had it.
Think Central London will bounce back quicker than you might think. Sure, there won’t be as many Prets. More interesting businesses will take their place.
Comments
https://twitter.com/JoeBiden/status/1306661700054196227?s=20
Vermont and California the only majority rural states ?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8744515/Thailand-Singapore-safe-travel-list-Slovenia-Guadalupe-visitors-face-quarantine.html
A little known author of airport books will be pleased.
Pfizer and Moderna are a little behind that, probably seeing results at the end of November.
However, when Biden defends the Good Friday Agreement AND the rule of law, and "Rule Britannia" types hyperventilate on grounds that peace in Ireland and international law are NOT valid concerns for the US and it's potential future President, then yes, it will help Biden.
Not hugely, of course. BUT then again, this election is all about working the margins in a full-court press.
The pre-March 2020 economy is dead. No amount of pleading is going to save commuter train operating companies or all those sandwich shops, both used to flogging their vastly overpriced products to a captive market that's suddenly not captive anymore.
https://twitter.com/BW/status/1304253016946679816?s=19
* the County is more populous than 23 states!
My recollection of both GCSE and A-level history was in considering different primary and secondary sources with different views, and your essays had to weigh them up, explain what each was trying to get across and draw your own conclusions on which was more convincing.
I thought his article The God That Failed (about how demographic change failed to deliver the results it was supposed to) was probably the best article on politics I've ever read.
Loads of supporting industries just aren't going to be necessary.
Which makes me worry about my exposed position a tad.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rural_areas_in_the_United_States
Now the Tories still win the South but Greater London is solid Labour and the North and Wales have joined the Midlands as swing regions with Labour now behind both the SNP and Tories in Scotland
Some leafy parts of the country may well be better off at the end of all this*. Central London, in particular, is going to be badly scarred. Years more Covid restrictions and a substantial permanent move to part-time or full-time WFH, as well as the continuing growth of online retail, will see to that.
* Unless we end up in the nightmare scenario of endlessly repeating lockdown cycles, in which case everybody has had it.
Really odd market. But that's good in a way. Can't make much money otherwise.
Experts on the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) and the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (Spi-m) have suggested a national lockdown that could coincide with the October school half-term.
The government is keen to avoid the reclosure of schools, having shut them during the national lockdown in March and only fully reopening them this autumn.
That helps to explain why the government’s scientific advisers have looked at how a two-week national lockdown might coincide with the October half- term as part of efforts to bring Covid-19 under control.
“As schools will be closed for one week at half-term, adding an extra week to that will have limited impact on education,” said one scientist who is a member of Sage, confirming the body had considered the case for a national lockdown in October.
Another scientist who is a member of Spi-m said the body had also looked at a national lockdown that could take place next month.
They are just making this up by the hour now.
You could say that for Massachusetts as well as (in fact better than) Vermont. And at least as well (or pretty close) for New Mexico as for California.
Re: Cali note that most of the blue blob in southern CA is Los Angeles, Riverside & San Diego counties, which have lots of rural & empty acres BUT where the VOTES come from cities & suburbs.
Re: acres versus voters, old PBers may remember the excitement of the 2008 Democratic primary in Missouri, when Obama & Clinton were running neck-and-neck on the night as the returns started coming in.
Some PBers were convinced that Clinton would win, because only a handful of counties were going for Obama. Others (who shall remain nameless) pointed out that the remaining votes to be counted were concentrated in just a couple areas: St Louis City, St Louis County and Jackson County (Kansas City).
Guess who ended up winning THAT primary election?
* Until mid October.
NEW THREAD
I don't think so.
Once they do this in October there'll be another one all over the Christmas holiday and another one after that in February. 10 million unemployed and complete national ruin beckon.
I'm not sure that I'd like to be Starmer at the end of all this. Yes, he'll have a Parliamentary majority of about 200 to work with, but why would anyone want to deal with a population consisting of depressed, angry and suicidal alcoholics with a per capita GDP somewhere around that of Bulgaria?
There are far too many people posting on here (and some betting too) with their hearts and not their heads.
In Illinois and New York and Minnesota and Nevada and Colorado and Virginia and Washington it was Chicago, New York city, Minneapolis, Las Vegas, Denver, the DC suburbs and Seattle which made the states go blue, the majority of the counties in those states voted for Trump
Also, still some Sanders - Warren voters who need nudging. But main target is (Once) Great American Middle Class.
On today's figures about 10% are still on furlough, which added to the current 4% unemployed would make about 14% unemployed by the end of October if they are not back in the workplace when furlough ends
In Georgia, elections were conducted via a county-unit system, which gave the rural counties a BIG advantage over Fulton Co (Atlanta) and other urban areas.
Until the 1964 "One Man, One Vote" decision by POTUS. Which changed the landscape dramatically. EXCEPT of course for the US Senate. Because the two senators per state rule is enshrined in the Constitution (part of the Great Compromise at the Constitutional Convention of 1789) and can NOT be altered unless & until the Constitution is amended., Which AIN"T gonna happen in this case.
BTW, believe this is first election where someone from state with just ONE representative in US House is a major-party nominee for President. (Believe Sarah Palin was first from one rep state to be nominated for VP.)
Caesar Romney and the Blue Hen Regiment would be proud!
Pfizer and Moderna have apparently released their entire trial designs, including the normally-confidential conditions under which the data monitoring board will stop the trial. I don't have time to find and read them right now but going on secondary sources: interim readouts for Moderna will be at 53, 106, and 151 cases, and they do some simple stats to show how much efficacy would be needed at each point. They are expecting 53 cases in November. Pfizer seem very confident that their interim readout at 32 cases will be October, but they would need amazing efficacy to see enough power at that stage. Although Oxford's trial started earlier, they seem rather slower in dosing participants, and I don't think their interim readout stages are public.
But it all points to November-ish, if at least one of these vaccines works. October if we get seriously lucky, December if somewhat unlucky. It has looked that way, to my back-of-envelope scribbles, since June. Of course licensing and roll-out will take time (and perhaps manufacture, depending on which vaccine it is and where we land in the queue) but I think we'll all feel a lot better knowing that one is coming.
--AS
On this site I seem to be in a very, very thin minority in thinking the Government is doing a good job.
But at least we should get the facts right. To take one example which jumped out these very pages a couple of days ago, @OnlyLivingBoy posted this:
..we didn't build much infrastructure in Africa. We were mostly there for the enslaving, followed by land stealing and resource extraction.
I don't think this was ironic, and assuming it wasn't, let's deconstruct it, looking at some very basic facts:
Dates: Slave Trade Act 1807. Slavery Abolition Act 1834. Treaty for the Suppression of the African Slave Trade 1841 - Royal Navy now suppressing the international trade. Birth of Cecil Rhodes 1853. Rhodes becomes Prime Minister of the Cape Colony 1890. Modern-day Kenya comes under British rule 1890.
Enslavement: Done almost entirely by African tribes and kingdoms, and to some extent Arabs.
Building infrastructure: Well, dunno about you, but I can't help feeling that railways were a rather important bit of 19th century infrastructure, and I'm puzzled as to who built them in the countries of the British Empire if it wasn't the British.
Facts are facts. You can interpret and select them to some extent, but not to the extent of @OnlyLivingBoy's comment.