“I found it to be an amazing spectacle of [BLANK]’s reality distortion field on full power — his refusal to answer the substance of serious questions, his complete bonkers grasp of reality and facts and his comfort in offering non-sensical explanations for very serious topics”
On the basis of new information today I surmise Boris wants a deal and the EU really wants a deal and both need to save face and will help each other do it. There's also the compromise on fish being floated as per Katya Adler's tweet the other day.
So I'm back to 40% chance of a deal - the main obstacle now being state aid.
Close to a certainty for me. Always thought so. Still do. Theatrics then more theatrics then Deal. If I'm wrong and we are on basic WTO terms with the EU on 1st Jan next year I will - well whatever, I'll do whatever my worst enemies would like to see me do.
If they haven't got the QR code they haven't got the appointment what are they doing going to the centre?
Lot of people turning up uninvited and without an appointment certainly may cause traffic but I fail to see the issue.
The traffic is due to part of the south circular closed due to a burst water main, nothing to do with covid testing despite the tweet. Just been through it.
Can we expect a clarification from the deputy mayor any time soon? No, thought not.
There is a mobile testing centre in Catford today, but anyone driving from outside the area would be far more likely to go the big testing centre at the O2 in Greenwich anyway.
Id be very surprised if more than a couple of hundred cars were going to the testing site and that is absolutely negligible compared to normal daily south circular traffic, even it were a couple of thousand over the day it wouldnt make a difference.
As always people, of all political persuasions, are too ready to believe what they read on twitter.
Biden is up 4pts in NC with Suffolk Uni (A grade pollster on 538)
B 47 T 43
North Carolina so far:
Mail in votes by party Democratic 44,821 55.33% Republican 12,460 15.38% Unaffiliated 23,525 29.04% Libertarian 166 0.20% Constitution 11 0.01% Green 29 0.04%
Party Requests (Mail) DEMOCRATIC 435,981 REPUBLICAN 147,986 UNAFFILIATED 275,660 LIBERTARIAN 2,808 CONSTITUTION 203 GREEN 414
If they haven't got the QR code they haven't got the appointment what are they doing going to the centre?
Lot of people turning up uninvited and without an appointment certainly may cause traffic but I fail to see the issue.
The traffic is due to part of the south circular closed due to a burst water main, nothing to do with covid testing despite the tweet. Just been through it.
Can we expect a clarification from the deputy mayor any time soon? No, thought not.
There is a mobile testing centre in Catford today, but anyone driving from outside the area would be far more likely to go the big testing centre at the O2 in Greenwich anyway.
Id be very surprised if more than a couple of hundred cars were going to the testing site and that is absolutely negligible compared to normal daily south circular traffic, even it were a couple of thousand over the day it wouldnt make a difference.
As always people, of all political persuasions, are too ready to believe what they read on twitter.
I'm shocked people think you can test that many people per day without having queues. If there aren't queues, you aren't using all the capacity.
That'd actually have achieved its objective because the full trade deal - if signed by both sides - would supersede the needs for the caveats in the WA as it would spell out precisely how it would work. And if neither the UK or the EU were happy with it they wouldn't sign it.
It allows both sides to save face.
Clever.
Not really. It could be an incredibly bare bones "trade deal" covering only certain areas, and even then would require the WA to be implemented in full including the customs checks in the Irish Sea.
If it's that it won't be signed.
Every knows that intra UK and Irish trade is crucial and you only know how that's going to work once the full FTA is done, and which goods and services may be affected and how.
Which is why the sequencing was always bullshit: this should all have been negotiated in one package at once, which wouldn't have affected the Irish border being one of the key redlines.
Could have saved us all a lot of grief.
The EU sequenced it this way as a powerplay to try to compel us to give in to their demands. The UK has published the IM Bill as a powerplay to undercut that and remove that as an issue on their favour.
Now the real talks are happening and people are compromising. The IM Bill has done its job - it was a dirty act, but the EU have played dirty through this too. Sometimes to get the right thing done you need to get down and dirty.
So it was just dirty brinkmanship all along. I probably dreamt it, but weren't you previously claiming that the Boris Bill was a robust, noble and utterly unavoidable assertion of parliamentary sovereignty for the ages?
If they haven't got the QR code they haven't got the appointment what are they doing going to the centre?
Lot of people turning up uninvited and without an appointment certainly may cause traffic but I fail to see the issue.
The traffic is due to part of the south circular closed due to a burst water main, nothing to do with covid testing despite the tweet. Just been through it.
Can we expect a clarification from the deputy mayor any time soon? No, thought not.
There is a mobile testing centre in Catford today, but anyone driving from outside the area would be far more likely to go the big testing centre at the O2 in Greenwich anyway.
Id be very surprised if more than a couple of hundred cars were going to the testing site and that is absolutely negligible compared to normal daily south circular traffic, even it were a couple of thousand over the day it wouldnt make a difference.
As always people, of all political persuasions, are too ready to believe what they read on twitter.
I'm shocked people think you can test that many people per day without having queues. If there aren't queues, you aren't using all the capacity.
A worse sight is when they go to a testing centre, which officially has no test slots, and they are just sitting around having a fag and reading the newspaper.
That'd actually have achieved its objective because the full trade deal - if signed by both sides - would supersede the needs for the caveats in the WA as it would spell out precisely how it would work. And if neither the UK or the EU were happy with it they wouldn't sign it.
It allows both sides to save face.
Clever.
It's Jeeves saving Mr Wooster from the consequences of his actions clever.
If they haven't got the QR code they haven't got the appointment what are they doing going to the centre?
Lot of people turning up uninvited and without an appointment certainly may cause traffic but I fail to see the issue.
The traffic is due to part of the south circular closed due to a burst water main, nothing to do with covid testing despite the tweet. Just been through it.
Can we expect a clarification from the deputy mayor any time soon? No, thought not.
There is a mobile testing centre in Catford today, but anyone driving from outside the area would be far more likely to go the big testing centre at the O2 in Greenwich anyway.
Id be very surprised if more than a couple of hundred cars were going to the testing site and that is absolutely negligible compared to normal daily south circular traffic, even it were a couple of thousand over the day it wouldnt make a difference.
As always people, of all political persuasions, are too ready to believe what they read on twitter.
I'm shocked people think you can test that many people per day without having queues. If there aren't queues, you aren't using all the capacity.
A worse sight is when they go to a testing centre, which officially has no test slots, and they are just sitting around having a fag and reading the newspaper.
Its presumably processing or sourcing the tests thats causing the delays and shortages, not performing them or the traffic!
If they haven't got the QR code they haven't got the appointment what are they doing going to the centre?
Lot of people turning up uninvited and without an appointment certainly may cause traffic but I fail to see the issue.
The traffic is due to part of the south circular closed due to a burst water main, nothing to do with covid testing despite the tweet. Just been through it.
Can we expect a clarification from the deputy mayor any time soon? No, thought not.
There is a mobile testing centre in Catford today, but anyone driving from outside the area would be far more likely to go the big testing centre at the O2 in Greenwich anyway.
Id be very surprised if more than a couple of hundred cars were going to the testing site and that is absolutely negligible compared to normal daily south circular traffic, even it were a couple of thousand over the day it wouldnt make a difference.
As always people, of all political persuasions, are too ready to believe what they read on twitter.
I'm shocked people think you can test that many people per day without having queues. If there aren't queues, you aren't using all the capacity.
A worse sight is when they go to a testing centre, which officially has no test slots, and they are just sitting around having a fag and reading the newspaper.
Its presumably processing or sourcing the tests thats causing the delays and shortages, not performing them or the traffic!
My understanding is they can do ~200k a day PCR tests. They have set aside 100k for nhs, care homes etc and 100k for the public.
Why they haven't managed to scale past 200k is unknown. Is it poor management, is it lack of lab / chemicals capacity, i haven't heard anybody give a good explanation. Other than we know the man from delmonte, i mean Deloitte, left after scaling it to 200k and Dido Harding took over and they have got stuck.
Biden is up 4pts in NC with Suffolk Uni (A grade pollster on 538)
B 47 T 43
North Carolina so far:
Mail in votes by party Democratic 44,821 55.33% Republican 12,460 15.38% Unaffiliated 23,525 29.04% Libertarian 166 0.20% Constitution 11 0.01% Green 29 0.04%
Party Requests (Mail) DEMOCRATIC 435,981 REPUBLICAN 147,986 UNAFFILIATED 275,660 LIBERTARIAN 2,808 CONSTITUTION 203 GREEN 414
Terrible idea. It's this that keeps them anchored and knowledgeable about the real world.
They otherwise just fill their time writing pointless EDMs and doing social work.
Agreed 100%
The amount of people who will both moan that MPs are all "out of touch" and then complain about them having second jobs.
There's no reason backbench MPs shouldn't have second jobs, in fact it should really be encouraged. Ministers are afterall all a second job on top of being MPs so why shouldn't backbenchers have one too that keeps them in touch in the real world?
That would be a good point if MPs were doing second jobs that were "in touch". If they want to do 5 hours a week teaching at a local college, working at a youth centre, a law centre or CAB, or even working in a bar/shop/cafe, then they'd learn an awful lot about their local communities.
But apart from the odd professional, what they tend to do is consult with firms who want to influence MPs, or sit on boards, where they're almost as far from understanding every day life for the majority as they are in Parliament.
But many MPs do that. There are MPs who work as a doctor or other stuff that they did beforehand part time.
There are also MPs who are grifters.
Like anything in life there's good and bad. Its up to the public to decide, let them vote out the bad and keep the good . . . there's no point banning second jobs to target the grifters but also catching the good MPs with reasonable 'second jobs', throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
Besides the grifters will always find another way to grift if that's what they want to do. At least with our system as it is they need to publicly declare their income and its not sly backhanders that are kept off the books.
Sure there are a few doctors - I said "apart from the off professional", but they're very much the minority.
You could easily ban consultancy work and even directorships, as both are often just bought influence. If MPs then wanted another job, they could get one that doesn't rely on their position as an MP.
What purpose does that serve?
An MP has to declare any payments they receive, put them on their register of interests. Then the voters can decide, if they dislike their MP grifting then they can elect another MP. Problem solved.
Other countries with bans like this you end up with off the books direct corruption which is far, far worse and has no public knowledge or recourse to what is going on.
You'll literally argue about anything won't you?
You suggested that it was incompatible to say MPs are "out of touch" and also want to ban second jobs. I'm sure you don't really believe that most MPs are doing second jobs that "keep it real"?
The argument that they should be allowed to do those jobs, even though they're mostly nothing to do with the life of an average person, but trade on their position as an MP, because we can't trust them not to break the law, is one of the best I've heard though - bravo for that!
Biden is up 4pts in NC with Suffolk Uni (A grade pollster on 538)
B 47 T 43
North Carolina so far:
Mail in votes by party Democratic 44,821 55.33% Republican 12,460 15.38% Unaffiliated 23,525 29.04% Libertarian 166 0.20% Constitution 11 0.01% Green 29 0.04%
Party Requests (Mail) DEMOCRATIC 435,981 REPUBLICAN 147,986 UNAFFILIATED 275,660 LIBERTARIAN 2,808 CONSTITUTION 203 GREEN 414
That lot resulted in 2,362,631 Trump / 2,189,316 Clinton / 187,345 Someone else
That looks tricky for the GOP – will require a massive on-the-day turnout surely?
The GOP do tend to do well on the day. Also there is early in person voting in October, this is just mail ins (Which are expanding massively due to the pandemic)
Clinton/Dems had 41.7% with Trumpton on 31.9% last time out - Trump victory by 3.66%. Obama/Dems had 47.5%, Romney/GOP had 31.5% - Romney victory by 2.04%.
So far Biden is 50.5% - 55.3% to the GOP 15.4 - 17.1% (Depending on your chosen metric). Independents & others at 29.04 - 31.9% is broadly in line with their natural state affiliation (35.85% Dem, 30.09% GOP, 33.36%).
The Democrats are definitely cannibalising future vote, but the GOP vote thus far looks moribund.
Look at this graph of infections by age group for a Florida county. The surge in young people in June was mirrored by a slightly smaller one for older people in July. The recent numbers are ... notable, to say the least.
Not sure if this has already been picked up, but this view by the excellent Sir Ivan Rogers is probably the best take you'll find anywhere on what on earth is going through the minds of Boris and Cummings:
If they haven't got the QR code they haven't got the appointment what are they doing going to the centre?
Lot of people turning up uninvited and without an appointment certainly may cause traffic but I fail to see the issue.
The traffic is due to part of the south circular closed due to a burst water main, nothing to do with covid testing despite the tweet. Just been through it.
Can we expect a clarification from the deputy mayor any time soon? No, thought not.
There is a mobile testing centre in Catford today, but anyone driving from outside the area would be far more likely to go the big testing centre at the O2 in Greenwich anyway.
Id be very surprised if more than a couple of hundred cars were going to the testing site and that is absolutely negligible compared to normal daily south circular traffic, even it were a couple of thousand over the day it wouldnt make a difference.
As always people, of all political persuasions, are too ready to believe what they read on twitter.
I'm shocked people think you can test that many people per day without having queues. If there aren't queues, you aren't using all the capacity.
A worse sight is when they go to a testing centre, which officially has no test slots, and they are just sitting around having a fag and reading the newspaper.
Its presumably processing or sourcing the tests thats causing the delays and shortages, not performing them or the traffic!
My understanding is they can do ~200k a day PCR tests. They have set aside 100k for nhs, care homes etc and 100k for the public.
Why they haven't managed to scale past 200k is unknown. Is it poor management, is it lack of lab / chemicals capacity, i haven't heard anybody give a good explanation. Other than we know the man from delmonte, i mean Deloitte, left after scaling it to 200k and Dido Harding took over and they have got stuck.
Maybe Deloitte put a 200k limit in so they could be called back and charge a fortune to remove it!
Biden is up 4pts in NC with Suffolk Uni (A grade pollster on 538)
B 47 T 43
North Carolina so far:
Mail in votes by party Democratic 44,821 55.33% Republican 12,460 15.38% Unaffiliated 23,525 29.04% Libertarian 166 0.20% Constitution 11 0.01% Green 29 0.04%
Party Requests (Mail) DEMOCRATIC 435,981 REPUBLICAN 147,986 UNAFFILIATED 275,660 LIBERTARIAN 2,808 CONSTITUTION 203 GREEN 414
If they haven't got the QR code they haven't got the appointment what are they doing going to the centre?
Lot of people turning up uninvited and without an appointment certainly may cause traffic but I fail to see the issue.
The traffic is due to part of the south circular closed due to a burst water main, nothing to do with covid testing despite the tweet. Just been through it.
Can we expect a clarification from the deputy mayor any time soon? No, thought not.
There is a mobile testing centre in Catford today, but anyone driving from outside the area would be far more likely to go the big testing centre at the O2 in Greenwich anyway.
Id be very surprised if more than a couple of hundred cars were going to the testing site and that is absolutely negligible compared to normal daily south circular traffic, even it were a couple of thousand over the day it wouldnt make a difference.
As always people, of all political persuasions, are too ready to believe what they read on twitter.
I'm shocked people think you can test that many people per day without having queues. If there aren't queues, you aren't using all the capacity.
A worse sight is when they go to a testing centre, which officially has no test slots, and they are just sitting around having a fag and reading the newspaper.
Its presumably processing or sourcing the tests thats causing the delays and shortages, not performing them or the traffic!
My understanding is they can do ~200k a day PCR tests. They have set aside 100k for nhs, care homes etc and 100k for the public.
Why they haven't managed to scale past 200k is unknown. Is it poor management, is it lack of lab / chemicals capacity, i haven't heard anybody give a good explanation. Other than we know the man from delmonte, i mean Deloitte, left after scaling it to 200k and Dido Harding took over and they have got stuck.
Maybe Deloitte put a 200k limit in so they could be called back and charge a fortune to remove it!
More probably it's all of the above, plus a shortage of staff. TBH, working in a lab doing one test, for one 'thing' must be pretty boring. And weren't the managers using Uni students during the Summer, who have now gone back to Uni. Although there may be Uni's locally, there'll surely be a changeover?
Biden is up 4pts in NC with Suffolk Uni (A grade pollster on 538)
B 47 T 43
North Carolina so far:
Mail in votes by party Democratic 44,821 55.33% Republican 12,460 15.38% Unaffiliated 23,525 29.04% Libertarian 166 0.20% Constitution 11 0.01% Green 29 0.04%
Party Requests (Mail) DEMOCRATIC 435,981 REPUBLICAN 147,986 UNAFFILIATED 275,660 LIBERTARIAN 2,808 CONSTITUTION 203 GREEN 414
That lot resulted in 2,362,631 Trump / 2,189,316 Clinton / 187,345 Someone else
That looks tricky for the GOP – will require a massive on-the-day turnout surely?
The GOP do tend to do well on the day. Also there is early in person voting in October, this is just mail ins (Which are expanding massively due to the pandemic)
Clinton/Dems had 41.7% with Trumpton on 31.9% last time out - Trump victory by 3.66%. Obama/Dems had 47.5%, Romney/GOP had 31.5% - Romney victory by 2.04%.
So far Biden is 50.5% - 55.3% to the GOP 15.4 - 17.1% (Depending on your chosen metric). Independents & others at 29.04 - 31.9% is broadly in line with their natural state affiliation (35.85% Dem, 30.09% GOP, 33.36%).
The Democrats are definitely cannibalising future vote, but the GOP vote thus far looks moribund.
Keep in mind, that in NC (and number of other states) there are people who regularly vote Republican in federal elections, who are still registered as Democrats.
Not sure if this has already been picked up, but this view by the excellent Sir Ivan Rogers is probably the best take you'll find anywhere on what on earth is going through the minds of Boris and Cummings:
Look at this graph of infections by age group for a Florida county. The surge in young people in June was mirrored by a slightly smaller one for older people in July. The recent numbers are ... notable, to say the least.
Not sure if this has already been picked up, but this view by the excellent Sir Ivan Rogers is probably the best take you'll find anywhere on what on earth is going through the minds of Boris and Cummings:
Dido does have a function, she makes Johnson look supremely competent.
She actually looks on top of her brief at the committee. Compare and contrast with Johnson's appearance yesterday.
I am not seeing the coverage, just responding to her unbelievable answer to Clark. I am some ill-educated street scumbag not some super-duper highly qualified former CEO of TalkTalk, and I knew the testing requirement would ramp up after the schools returned. It is pretty basic stuff, school children are susceptible to autumn and winter bugs and transmission within schools is high because children operate in close proximity to each other. I know this because I used to attend school as a child.
Biden is up 4pts in NC with Suffolk Uni (A grade pollster on 538)
B 47 T 43
North Carolina so far:
Mail in votes by party Democratic 44,821 55.33% Republican 12,460 15.38% Unaffiliated 23,525 29.04% Libertarian 166 0.20% Constitution 11 0.01% Green 29 0.04%
Party Requests (Mail) DEMOCRATIC 435,981 REPUBLICAN 147,986 UNAFFILIATED 275,660 LIBERTARIAN 2,808 CONSTITUTION 203 GREEN 414
That lot resulted in 2,362,631 Trump / 2,189,316 Clinton / 187,345 Someone else
That looks tricky for the GOP – will require a massive on-the-day turnout surely?
The GOP do tend to do well on the day. Also there is early in person voting in October, this is just mail ins (Which are expanding massively due to the pandemic)
Clinton/Dems had 41.7% with Trumpton on 31.9% last time out - Trump victory by 3.66%. Obama/Dems had 47.5%, Romney/GOP had 31.5% - Romney victory by 2.04%.
So far Biden is 50.5% - 55.3% to the GOP 15.4 - 17.1% (Depending on your chosen metric). Independents & others at 29.04 - 31.9% is broadly in line with their natural state affiliation (35.85% Dem, 30.09% GOP, 33.36%).
The Democrats are definitely cannibalising future vote, but the GOP vote thus far looks moribund.
That does not really tell us much given 67% of Democrats this year intend to vote via mail in postal ballot compared to just 28% of Republicans and 57% of Republicans intend to vote on the day compared to just 37% of Democrats.
I understand in the North East "lockdown", the requirement to "not socialise with people outside your own household" is simply advice and won't be the law.
Good luck with compliance with that.
Eh? A relative pointed this out -
"1. What are the new measures? From Friday 18th September, regulations will lawfully ban the following:
Residents must not socialise with other people outside of their own households in private homes and gardens ..."
Admittedly "Please note: We are yet to receive the regulations outlining the advice, guidance and legislation in full. We will further communicate implications for our residents and businesses as soon as we can."
But pubs will remain open. I think that's pretty shite for people living on their own.
Look at this graph of infections by age group for a Florida county. The surge in young people in June was mirrored by a slightly smaller one for older people in July. The recent numbers are ... notable, to say the least.
Dido does have a function, she makes Johnson look supremely competent.
She actually looks on top of her brief at the committee. Compare and contrast with Johnson's appearance yesterday.
I am not seeing the coverage, just responding to her unbelievable answer to Clark. I am some ill-educated street scumbag not some super-duper highly qualified former CEO of TalkTalk, and I knew the testing requirement would ramp up after the schools returned. It is pretty basic stuff, school children are susceptible to autumn and winter bugs and transmission within schools is high because children operate in close proximity to each other. I know this because I used to attend school as a child.
Yeah, maybe they thought it would be half of what it actually is, for example? From the evidence it sounds as though the forecasts were made and maybe published(?) by SAGE.
The opposition to these bullsh!t knee-jerk authoritarian policies is growing.
Julia Hartley Brewer made mincemeat of the Junior Health minister Edward Agar this morning when she asked him how many healthy people under 60 had died of COVID since the outbreak. (307).
He clearly had no idea whatever. None. She had to tell him. He's the junior health minister! These people are making policy arbitrarily with no grasp of their briefs whatsoever.
She then asked him to justify the government's actions in the light of that. Gibbering wreck.
Not sure if this has already been picked up, but this view by the excellent Sir Ivan Rogers is probably the best take you'll find anywhere on what on earth is going through the minds of Boris and Cummings:
Yes, that sounds plausible - basically Boris and Dom still trying to play mind games with the public.
Yes, and it's probably true that, because they've left it so late and haven't done any serious preparations, January is going to be a disaster whatever happens, so the additional disaster of an acrimonious crash-out won't be that much worse in political terms. It's a profoundly cynical calculation of course, because in the effect on people's livelihoods it will be worse.
I think he's also right on how the EU will respond (he is probably the best-informed current or former civil servant on the EU):
“The EU will say that they tried to do a deal but the UK never accepted the obvious automatic consequences of leaving the customs union and single market, they had better now see and experience those consequences and they need a period of sobering up whilst they realise just how difficult it’s going to be as a third country without any preferential deal. " ... “The Europeans are never going to walk because they’re not going to give him that pleasure. If he wants to walk and he wants to pull the plug on the talks, he is going to have to do it himself,” Sir Ivan said.
“I think they will commence infraction proceedings straightaway after the UK fails to meet the September 30th deadline [for the bill to be withdrawn]I don’t think they’ve got much choice. ....”
However, I think that although he's right that they'll start formal infraction proceedings, my guess is that they'll do so slowly, which won't be hard of course. They'll string it out over a few months so that it's all quite low-key, and wait for the UK to come to its senses. At the same time they'll emphasise that they want to resume negotiations but that it's up to the UK to rectify the breach of the WA first.
Local lockdowns! Great news- Johnson's requirement for no national lockdown is on track. So if every local authority in the UK unilaterally locks down except say, Rutland, Johnson's promise has been fulfilled!
There seemed to be a little scepticism in Kate's tweet, implying that perhaps we are over reacting, but just look at the blue line, it is just starting to rise. Wasn't our problem in wave one that hospitalisations and deaths were already out of control by the time we did anything about it? Better to be safe than sorry.
Which might ironically help Boris if he can postpone a hard Brexit past the Holyrood elections next May until the end of next year, thus reducing the SNP's grievance opportunities (even if it costs the Tories some council seats in England next year)
Biden is up 4pts in NC with Suffolk Uni (A grade pollster on 538)
B 47 T 43
North Carolina so far:
Mail in votes by party Democratic 44,821 55.33% Republican 12,460 15.38% Unaffiliated 23,525 29.04% Libertarian 166 0.20% Constitution 11 0.01% Green 29 0.04%
Party Requests (Mail) DEMOCRATIC 435,981 REPUBLICAN 147,986 UNAFFILIATED 275,660 LIBERTARIAN 2,808 CONSTITUTION 203 GREEN 414
Which might ironically help Boris if he can postpone a hard Brexit past the Holyrood elections next March until the end of next year (even if it costs the Tories some council seats in England next May)
Which might ironically help Boris if he can postpone a hard Brexit past the Holyrood elections next March until the end of next year (even if it costs the Tories some council seats in England next May)
Northumberland being added looks rather overkill - their numbers per 100k are way below Newcastle, Gateshead, Sunderland.
I can imagine that a majority of Northumberland’s cases are in the urban areas directly to the north of Newcastle - Ponteland, Cramlington, Ashington, Blyth, etc. The alternative would be to do it by postcode, but I guess this is “cleaner”.
Dido does have a function, she makes Johnson look supremely competent.
She actually looks on top of her brief at the committee. Compare and contrast with Johnson's appearance yesterday.
I am not seeing the coverage, just responding to her unbelievable answer to Clark. I am some ill-educated street scumbag not some super-duper highly qualified former CEO of TalkTalk, and I knew the testing requirement would ramp up after the schools returned. It is pretty basic stuff, school children are susceptible to autumn and winter bugs and transmission within schools is high because children operate in close proximity to each other. I know this because I used to attend school as a child.
Yeah, maybe they thought it would be half of what it actually is, for example? From the evidence it sounds as though the forecasts were made and maybe published(?) by SAGE.
My point is one didn't have to be a SAGE expert to know snotty kids pass on pestilence.
IIUC it wasn't true in the US until this cycle, when Trump signalled to his tribe that it's a bad thing. It used to be pretty balanced over there.
In the UK I think I vaguely recall that it favours the Tories but I can't find any data?
I think you are right in the sense that more Conservative than Labour voters use postal voting, but of course that doesn't necessarily mean that postal voting favours the Conservatives. I suspect that it doesn't; it's simply a reflection of the greater average age of Conservative voters, but they would vote in person anyway if they didn't have a postal vote. In other words, the fact that one party's voters use postal voting more doesn't have to mean it favours that party.
Which might ironically help Boris if he can postpone a hard Brexit past the Holyrood elections next May until the end of next year, thus reducing the SNP's grievance opportunities (even if it costs the Tories some council seats in England next year)
But it wouldn't postpone Hard Brexit, as that would happen New Years Day, Irish Sea customs and all.
Well yes, or West Virginia would be lean Democrat. You'd expect in a marginal state like North Carolina for the GOP vote to be broadly GOP and the Democrat vote to be broadly Dem though I think ?
Democrat registration has decreased in every county except Wake and Mecklenburg since 2016 - so there is an element of self tidying going on wrt VI and party affiliation.
Which might ironically help Boris if he can postpone a hard Brexit past the Holyrood elections next May until the end of next year, thus reducing the SNP's grievance opportunities (even if it costs the Tories some council seats in England next year)
But it wouldn't postpone Hard Brexit, as that would happen New Years Day, Irish Sea customs and all.
I understand in the North East "lockdown", the requirement to "not socialise with people outside your own household" is simply advice and won't be the law.
Good luck with compliance with that.
Eh? A relative pointed this out -
"1. What are the new measures? From Friday 18th September, regulations will lawfully ban the following:
Residents must not socialise with other people outside of their own households in private homes and gardens ..."
Admittedly "Please note: We are yet to receive the regulations outlining the advice, guidance and legislation in full. We will further communicate implications for our residents and businesses as soon as we can."
But pubs will remain open. I think that's pretty shite for people living on their own.
The fact this is still not published in full and comes into effect at midnight is pretty nuts. I'm supposed to be going on holiday to Northumberland next week - single household so it looks like that will still be possible. However, our cancelled June holiday in Northumberland was going to be us and my in-laws, the replacement holiday next week could have been the same but the in-laws decided not to join due to other caring commitments. If they had joined and we'd gone away this week, would our two-household holiday have become illegal at midnight? At what point before midnight would we have known this so one of the households could start packing?
Which might ironically help Boris if he can postpone a hard Brexit past the Holyrood elections next May until the end of next year, thus reducing the SNP's grievance opportunities (even if it costs the Tories some council seats in England next year)
But it wouldn't postpone Hard Brexit, as that would happen New Years Day, Irish Sea customs and all.
Boris has now committed to not have a border in the Irish Sea, even if only for a few months, so most likely Boris would extend trade talks for that few months and even ask the EU to extend the implementation period, if only for show mainly, to avoid that happening in January and the EU would likely agree given the internal market bill would not have passed yet
Couple of hundred hereditaries waiting in the wings.
I think Philip Thompson and HYUFD are deserving for their relentless work posting on behalf of the Conservative Party on the PB blog.
HYUFD, Earl of Epping has a nice ring to it! (though wishful thinking)
If Dido 'bloody' Harding was deserving of a peerage why not you? Become a friend of David Cameron and marry a Conservative MP and you are home and dry!
That does not really tell us much given 67% of Democrats this year intend to vote via mail in postal ballot compared to just 28% of Republicans and 57% of Republicans intend to vote on the day compared to just 37% of Democrats.
67% of Democrats plan to vote via mail and 37% of Democrats intend to vote on the day. That's 104% of Democrats ?!
Biden is up 4pts in NC with Suffolk Uni (A grade pollster on 538)
B 47 T 43
North Carolina so far:
Mail in votes by party Democratic 44,821 55.33% Republican 12,460 15.38% Unaffiliated 23,525 29.04% Libertarian 166 0.20% Constitution 11 0.01% Green 29 0.04%
Party Requests (Mail) DEMOCRATIC 435,981 REPUBLICAN 147,986 UNAFFILIATED 275,660 LIBERTARIAN 2,808 CONSTITUTION 203 GREEN 414
That does not really tell us much given 67% of Democrats this year intend to vote via mail in postal ballot compared to just 28% of Republicans and 57% of Republicans intend to vote on the day compared to just 37% of Democrats.
67% of Democrats plan to vote via mail and 37% of Democrats intend to vote on the day. That's 104% of Democrats ?!
No it is 67% of those voting by mail will be Democrats and 37% of those voting on the day will be Democrats, apologies
That does not really tell us much given 67% of Democrats this year intend to vote via mail in postal ballot compared to just 28% of Republicans and 57% of Republicans intend to vote on the day compared to just 37% of Democrats.
67% of Democrats plan to vote via mail and 37% of Democrats intend to vote on the day. That's 104% of Democrats ?!
Following Trump's advice to do both?
And 28% of Republicans intend to vote by mail and 57% on the day which is just 85% so major bonus to the Democrats.
Biden is up 4pts in NC with Suffolk Uni (A grade pollster on 538)
B 47 T 43
North Carolina so far:
Mail in votes by party Democratic 44,821 55.33% Republican 12,460 15.38% Unaffiliated 23,525 29.04% Libertarian 166 0.20% Constitution 11 0.01% Green 29 0.04%
Party Requests (Mail) DEMOCRATIC 435,981 REPUBLICAN 147,986 UNAFFILIATED 275,660 LIBERTARIAN 2,808 CONSTITUTION 203 GREEN 414
Linking to an earlier discussion on MPs' outside work, Owen Paterson has a contract worth £4,166 a month for 8 hours work as a consultant to Randox (Register of Members' Interests). Over £500 an hour. Nice work if you can get it.
I'm sure that PT and Casino Royale will justify this as it helps Mr Paterson stay in touch with the "real world".
In reality, it's cronyism verging on corruption, as are many (maybe most) of the outside jobs held by MPs. I'm sure Mr Paterson didn't help Randox get the contract.
I think it probably fair to say that Dido can't give any useful answers to any interesting questions, as she either "doesn't have the hard data", or the question deals with a matter covered by "commercial confidentiality".
Though here is a pleasing absence of meaningless metaphors.
She's not divorced from reality, but her capability to influence it as a manager of the organisation isn't particularly evident.
Linking to an earlier discussion on MPs' outside work, Owen Paterson has a contract worth £4,166 a month for 8 hours work as a consultant to Randox (Register of Members' Interests). Over £500 an hour. Nice work if you can get it.
I'm sure that PT and Casino Royale will justify this as it helps Mr Paterson stay in touch with the "real world".
In reality, it's cronyism verging on corruption, as are many (maybe most) of the outside jobs held by MPs. I'm sure Mr Paterson didn't help Randox get the contract.
No I would not say that 🙄
If MPs are corrupt then voters should vote them out. An MPs second job can be either good or bad there is no right answer - and if you do a blanket ban you throw the good out with the bad.
That does not really tell us much given 67% of Democrats this year intend to vote via mail in postal ballot compared to just 28% of Republicans and 57% of Republicans intend to vote on the day compared to just 37% of Democrats.
67% of Democrats plan to vote via mail and 37% of Democrats intend to vote on the day. That's 104% of Democrats ?!
That takes account of Trump's advice to North Carolina then.
I'm not following live, but on the basis of the reports of what Dido Harding is saying, she seems to be extremely sensible, and very much on top of the brief.
Which might ironically help Boris if he can postpone a hard Brexit past the Holyrood elections next May until the end of next year, thus reducing the SNP's grievance opportunities (even if it costs the Tories some council seats in England next year)
But it wouldn't postpone Hard Brexit, as that would happen New Years Day, Irish Sea customs and all.
Boris has now committed to not have a border in the Irish Sea, even if only for a few months, so most likely Boris would extend trade talks for that few months and even ask the EU to extend the implementation period, if only for show mainly, to avoid that happening in January and the EU would likely agree given the internal market bill would not have passed yet
Well, he has committed to two contradictory things then. No extensions and no Irish Sea border (despite the latter being a key part of his oven ready deal).
Biden is up 4pts in NC with Suffolk Uni (A grade pollster on 538)
B 47 T 43
North Carolina so far:
Mail in votes by party Democratic 44,821 55.33% Republican 12,460 15.38% Unaffiliated 23,525 29.04% Libertarian 166 0.20% Constitution 11 0.01% Green 29 0.04%
Party Requests (Mail) DEMOCRATIC 435,981 REPUBLICAN 147,986 UNAFFILIATED 275,660 LIBERTARIAN 2,808 CONSTITUTION 203 GREEN 414
Biden is up 4pts in NC with Suffolk Uni (A grade pollster on 538)
B 47 T 43
North Carolina so far:
Mail in votes by party Democratic 44,821 55.33% Republican 12,460 15.38% Unaffiliated 23,525 29.04% Libertarian 166 0.20% Constitution 11 0.01% Green 29 0.04%
Party Requests (Mail) DEMOCRATIC 435,981 REPUBLICAN 147,986 UNAFFILIATED 275,660 LIBERTARIAN 2,808 CONSTITUTION 203 GREEN 414
I'm not following live, but on the basis of the reports of what Dido Harding is saying, she seems to be extremely sensible, and very much on top of the brief.
It is, however, eminently possible to be extremely sensible, on top of the brief and not very good at the job.
I'm not following live, but on the basis of the reports of what Dido Harding is saying, she seems to be extremely sensible, and very much on top of the brief.
Like you I am following via the wire, but my biggest concern is her surprise that children returning to school on an industrial scale wouldn't cause a greater demand for tests.
I'm not following live, but on the basis of the reports of what Dido Harding is saying, she seems to be extremely sensible, and very much on top of the brief.
Like you I am following via the wire, but my biggest concern is her surprise that children returning to school on an industrial scale wouldn't cause a greater demand for tests.
It's possible to both expect a rise and be surprised at the size of the increase. As I mentioned earlier, it was mentioned in the committee that the projections were based on SAGE predictions of the demand.
Comments
Premier League rights: New China broadcast deal agreed - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/54192237
Id be very surprised if more than a couple of hundred cars were going to the testing site and that is absolutely negligible compared to normal daily south circular traffic, even it were a couple of thousand over the day it wouldnt make a difference.
As always people, of all political persuasions, are too ready to believe what they read on twitter.
Why they haven't managed to scale past 200k is unknown. Is it poor management, is it lack of lab / chemicals capacity, i haven't heard anybody give a good explanation. Other than we know the man from delmonte, i mean Deloitte, left after scaling it to 200k and Dido Harding took over and they have got stuck.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8742913/French-cop-kicks-British-mans-head-violent-footage-arrest-not-wearing-face-mask.html
You suggested that it was incompatible to say MPs are "out of touch" and also want to ban second jobs. I'm sure you don't really believe that most MPs are doing second jobs that "keep it real"?
The argument that they should be allowed to do those jobs, even though they're mostly nothing to do with the life of an average person, but trade on their position as an MP, because we can't trust them not to break the law, is one of the best I've heard though - bravo for that!
https://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/07/politics/north-carolina-early-voting-2016/index.html
Clinton/Dems had 41.7% with Trumpton on 31.9% last time out - Trump victory by 3.66%.
Obama/Dems had 47.5%, Romney/GOP had 31.5% - Romney victory by 2.04%.
So far Biden is 50.5% - 55.3% to the GOP 15.4 - 17.1% (Depending on your chosen metric). Independents & others at 29.04 - 31.9% is broadly in line with their natural state affiliation (35.85% Dem, 30.09% GOP, 33.36%).
The Democrats are definitely cannibalising future vote, but the GOP vote thus far looks moribund.
https://order-order.com/2020/09/17/government-may-have-to-prorogue-again-to-get-internal-market-bill-through-the-lords/
The surge in young people in June was mirrored by a slightly smaller one for older people in July. The recent numbers are ... notable, to say the least.
https://twitter.com/39Magilla/status/1306602678047461376
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/trumpite-boris-johnson-wants-eu-to-fail-former-british-diplomat-says-1.4356233
It's the same here, but not so pronounced
It always seems a little suspicious to me.
And weren't the managers using Uni students during the Summer, who have now gone back to Uni. Although there may be Uni's locally, there'll surely be a changeover?
We're more likely to reach herd immunity faster and with fewer deaths.
https://twitter.com/LiamThorpECHO/status/1306607775125041152
https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/august-2020-presidential-race-tightens-after-party-conventions
I did mention the lag of about a month.
Julia Hartley Brewer made mincemeat of the Junior Health minister Edward Agar this morning when she asked him how many healthy people under 60 had died of COVID since the outbreak. (307).
He clearly had no idea whatever. None. She had to tell him. He's the junior health minister! These people are making policy arbitrarily with no grasp of their briefs whatsoever.
She then asked him to justify the government's actions in the light of that. Gibbering wreck.
I think he's also right on how the EU will respond (he is probably the best-informed current or former civil servant on the EU):
“The EU will say that they tried to do a deal but the UK never accepted the obvious automatic consequences of leaving the customs union and single market, they had better now see and experience those consequences and they need a period of sobering up whilst they realise just how difficult it’s going to be as a third country without any preferential deal. "
...
“The Europeans are never going to walk because they’re not going to give him that pleasure. If he wants to walk and he wants to pull the plug on the talks, he is going to have to do it himself,” Sir Ivan said.
“I think they will commence infraction proceedings straightaway after the UK fails to meet the September 30th deadline [for the bill to be withdrawn]I don’t think they’ve got much choice. ....”
However, I think that although he's right that they'll start formal infraction proceedings, my guess is that they'll do so slowly, which won't be hard of course. They'll string it out over a few months so that it's all quite low-key, and wait for the UK to come to its senses. At the same time they'll emphasise that they want to resume negotiations but that it's up to the UK to rectify the breach of the WA first.
There seemed to be a little scepticism in Kate's tweet, implying that perhaps we are over reacting, but just look at the blue line, it is just starting to rise. Wasn't our problem in wave one that hospitalisations and deaths were already out of control by the time we did anything about it? Better to be safe than sorry.
https://twitter.com/nick_forbes/status/1306610446561087492?s=21
Isn't that how everyone does it?
After all - who needs experts?
https://www.lgcplus.com/services/health-and-care/revealed-top-leadership-team-at-nhs-test-and-trace-includes-just-one-public-health-expert-15-09-2020/
In the UK I think I vaguely recall that it favours the Tories but I can't find any data?
That's not true, Raab for instance clearly had his votes in the post.
@Seashantyirish2
Well yes, or West Virginia would be lean Democrat. You'd expect in a marginal state like North Carolina for the GOP vote to be broadly GOP and the Democrat vote to be broadly Dem though I think ?
Democrat registration has decreased in every county except Wake and Mecklenburg since 2016 - so there is an element of self tidying going on wrt VI and party affiliation.
Does that seem suspicious to you?
And 28% of Republicans intend to vote by mail and 57% on the day which is just 85% so major bonus to the Democrats.
I'm sure that PT and Casino Royale will justify this as it helps Mr Paterson stay in touch with the "real world".
In reality, it's cronyism verging on corruption, as are many (maybe most) of the outside jobs held by MPs. I'm sure Mr Paterson didn't help Randox get the contract.
Though here is a pleasing absence of meaningless metaphors.
She's not divorced from reality, but her capability to influence it as a manager of the organisation isn't particularly evident.
If MPs are corrupt then voters should vote them out. An MPs second job can be either good or bad there is no right answer - and if you do a blanket ban you throw the good out with the bad.